The Newsletter for Wednesday, April 30th, 2025

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Walpurgisnacht, Europe.

April 30^th, 1916: Daylight Saving Time is introduced by Germany and its World War I allies, aiming to save energy to support the war effort.
On April 30, 1975, the South Vietnamese capital of Saigon fell to Communist forces. Go to article.
April 30^th, 1883: Impressionist painter Edouard Manet dies in Paris.

For once, take a close look at the sun
The world’s largest solar telescope has taken a close-up image of our nearest star, and the detail is breathtaking. For those with scientific minds, the image reveals a cluster of continent-sized dark sunspots near the center of the sun’s inner atmosphere. For folks who like to see faces in clouds, the sun’s surface appears to show a giant owl or a flying phoenix.

Experienced climbers only, please
In an effort to reduce overcrowding and improve safety, Nepal wants to require that all climbers have experience before trying to scale Mount Everest. According to a draft of a new law, climbers would only be able to obtain a permit if they’ve already climbed at least one of the Himalayan nation’s 22,965 ft. peaks.

The race to save the African penguin
Although the African penguin is essential for sustaining coastal ecosystems, the species is now on the brink of extinction. But scientists are working hard to save this unique water bird.

Titanic note sells for nearly $400,000
A letter card penned by one of the ill-fated ship’s most well-known survivors recently sold at auction to a private collector in the US. The letter is believed to be the sole example in existence of first-class passenger Archibald Gracie from onboard the Titanic.

John Stamos slays in musical challenge
In a video for the Drumeo YouTube channel, the actor and musician was challenged to create a new drum section for a song he’d never heard before. The vloggers chose “Last Resort” by Papa Roach and the results were spectacular.
Robots: Facts about machines that can walk, talk or do tasks that humans can’t (or won’t)

China’s ‘2D’ chip could soon be used to make silicon-free chips.

Researchers react to T. rex ‘leather’ announcement.

The rare genetic disorder that forces people to avoid sunlight.

PHOTOS OF THE  DAY

Pontefract, UK
People enjoy the sunny day at Farmer Copleys Tulip Festival as the warm weather continues across the country. Around 517,000 individual bulbs, consisting of 65 different varieties of tulip, were planted on the 5 acres site
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA

Paris, France
People enjoy the sun along the Seine, where temperatures rose to 27C
Photograph: Michel Euler/AP

Surrey, UK
People sit on the riverbank as a person paddleboard past on the River Thames in Runnymede
Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA
Market Closes for April 30^th , 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
The thing you do obsessively between age 13 and 18, that’s the thing you have the most chance of being world-class at. –Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, b. 1955
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Wednesday as data showed the Canadian economy performed ‘below potential” in the first quarter and is expected to weaken further in the second and third quarters, which is seen pushing the Bank of Canada to resume its rate-cutting cycle in June.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 32.8 points at 24,841.68, only the third losing session in the last 13.
Among sectors, the biggest decliners were Base Metals and Energy, down 3.15% and 2.30%, respectively, followed by Technology, down 1.78%.
Telecoms and Utilities were higher, up 1.40% and 0.99%, respectively.
Veteran economist David Rosenberg noted Mark Carney was today greeted with his first major economic release since taking his Liberal Party to its fourth-straight election win earlier this week.
Statistics Canada released February real GDP and instead of coming in flat, it showed the Canadian economy contracted 0.2% month over month.
Rosenberg also noted Statistics Canada estimates that there was very little recovery in March, seeing a “flattish” 0.1% uptick.
He said: “It looks as though real GDP growth in Q1 expanded at around a +1.6% annual rate, which may not be a technical recession but is still a pace that is below potential, which means a widening output gap.
This poses downside risks to inflation, which will come as a surprise to a more recently cautious Bank of Canada.”
Rosenberg noted the weakness in the economy in February was broadly based with both the goods sector and service providers in contraction mode.
“From our lens,” he added, “the fact that the areas of GDP most sensitive to monetary policy deteriorated as much as they did — construction (-0.5%), real estate (-0.4%), and retail activity (-0.2%) — is a signal that the BoC’s work is not entirely done.”
National Bank economist Kyle Dahms noted the Canadian economy was weaker than expected in February, declining by 0.25%, its worst performance in 26 months as a majority of sectors worsened during the month.
Looking ahead, Dahms noted the preliminary estimate for March suggests growth could have edged up by one tick.
Taking that into account, on a quarterly basis, industry growth could have registered at 1.5% annualized in the first quarter of the year following a 1.8% increase in the last quarter of 2024.
But, Dahms said, “This decent start to the year is unlikely to be propagated for the remainder as uncertainty continues to reign.
Unless tensions with our southern neighbor are significantly reduced, we continue to believe that consumer and business confidence will remain very low.
As such, this scenario should translate into lower outlays and reduced investment.
Moreover, the potential damage to the labor market is palpable and may have already started according to the March LFS report.
All told, our view remains that we expect a weakening of the economy in the second and third quarters.”
Desjardins noted the Bank of Canada released its ‘Summary of Deliberations’, detailing deliberations by the Governing Council for the policy decision made two weeks earlier.
Desjardins continues to believe the BoC will resume its rate cutting cycle in June, with the debate potentially being about whether to cut 25 or 50 basis points.
According to Royce Mendes, Desjardins Head of Macro Strategy, today’s “soft” GDP numbers suggest the economy was already losing momentum ahead of the worst of the tariff shock to date.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell to the lowest in more than four years on Wednesday as the U.S. economy weakened in the first quarter, slowing demand, while a report said Saudi Arabia is prepared to weather lower prices and raise production. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$2.21 to settle at US$58.21 per barrel, the lowest since February, 2021, while June Brent crude was last seen down US$1.12 to US$63.13.
Gold traded lower for a second day late afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar rose after the United States reported its economy slowed in the first quarter.
Gold for June delivery was last seen down $30.30 to US$3,303.30 per ounce.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1%, with four of 11 sectors lower, led by information technology stocks.
As of market close, 121 of 218 stocks rose, while 94 fell.
New Gold Inc. led the advances, rising 19%, while Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. decreased 5.9%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index fell 0.1% to 24,842
* Four of 11 sectors fell
** Information technology declined, down 2.4%
** Consumer staples gained, up 1.2%
* Crude oil fell 3.6% to $58/bbl
* Natgas fell 1.2% to $3.35/mmbtu
* Gold fell 0.8% to $3,305/oz
* Silver fell 2.3% to $33/oz
Advancers:
* New Gold Inc. (NGD CN) +19%: New Gold Jumps as Production Beats, Bullion Price Buoys Revenue
* Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL CN) +7.1%: CORRECT: Gildan Gains on Q1 Beat, Maintained Guide: Street Wrap
* Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI CN) +6.4%: Badger Infrastructure Shares Gain as Adjusted Ebitda Beats (1)
* Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA CN) +4.8%
* Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET CN) +4.6%
Decliners:
* Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN CN) -5.9%: Ivanhoe Mines 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
* Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET CN) -5.5%
* International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO CN) -5.2%
* NGEx Minerals Ltd. (NGEX CN) -4.4%
* Shopify Inc. (SHOP CN) -4.2%
US
By Rita Nazareth and Lu Wang
(Bloomberg) — The great Wall Street rebound resumed in earnest as stocks staged a late-day comeback even as fears grow that the US economy will buckle under the weight of Donald Trump’s trade war.
A month of historic volatility ended on that same note, with the S&P 500 wiping out a 2% slide for the first time since 2022.
Hopes that trade talks will prove constructive firmed up sentiment, after a report that the US has been proactively reaching out to China through various channels.
At the same time, a cohort of investors is betting the Federal Reserve will administer its policy medicine to forestall a recession.
“Weak data could hasten Fed cuts,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The Fed is now more likely to step in sooner with its rate cuts to support an ailing economy, while the weakness in data could also encourage Trump to ease off on tariffs and make deals quicker.”
Wild swings lashed US assets throughout the month as Trump’s fast-evolving tariff war put the S&P 500 on the brink of a bear market, with a plunge of almost 20% from its February record through April 8.
The gauge erased about half of that slide but still saw its third straight month of declines – the longest losing streak since 2023.
Following a few chaotic days that underscored fears foreign investors were beating a retreat from American assets in early April, Treasuries rebounded and notched their fourth straight month of gains.
The dollar saw its worst month since November 2022.
To Louis Navellier, what happens next very much depends on the tariff developments.
“If we get a series of announcements soon of trade agreements reached, optimism will rise, and the Fed will likely cut soon,” said the chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“If things drag out for weeks and months, the damage to supply chains and inevitable near-term inflation could cause shouts of stagflation and be very bearish for stocks.”
The macro picture remained at the forefront ahead of results from giants Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc.
A corporate proxy of global activity – Caterpillar Inc. – expects slightly lower sales this year if Trump tariffs remain in place and the economy dips into a recession.
Ford Motor Co.’s chief said the tariff relief to automakers is “reasonable” while indicating more is needed to address the impact of his levies.
The US economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 on monumental pre-tariffs import surge and more moderate consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from Trump’s trade policy.
Meantime, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — stagnated from a month earlier for the first time in nearly a year.
Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE was also unchanged, the tamest in almost five years.
At the very least, says Bret Kenwell at eToro, this could tone down the worry that the Fed can’t lower rates should the labor market begin to weaken, even though officials will likely need to see further proof that inflation is cooling.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, Wednesday’s data give investors and the Fed a better read on the state of the economy heading into the tariff shock.
But the relative magnitude of these effects may not become clear until sometime in the third quarter, he said.
“This presents the Fed with a dilemma as to whether it should wait to July/September or consider cutting in June anyway because the risk of delay is too high, even though it may not have as much clarity on the outlook as it would like,” Guha noted.
Despite the contraction, the underlying details of the GDP report suggest some key drivers of the economy remained on a good footing at the start of the year.
However, looking further out forecasters contend that the higher tariffs will cause a supply shock, challenging businesses and leading to a pullback in demand.
Retaliatory levies would also discourage exports, setting up a tough backdrop for the rest of the year and making the odds of a recession essentially a coin flip.
“This was all first quarter,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“Now, uncertainty is an enemy of growth, and it is also the enemy of Fed cuts.”
Trump renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell as he championed his economic policies and tariff regime during a Tuesday event to mark his 100th day in office.

Corporate Highlights:
* Super Micro Computer Inc. gave preliminary results that fell well short of analysts’ estimates, a sign its comeback plan has been slow to gain traction.
* Starbucks Corp.’s chief executive officer said the coffee chain is making progress in reviving growth but flagging sales in the latest quarter and a decaying macroeconomic backdrop amped up pressure on the company’s new management to deliver.
* Yum! Brands Inc.’s sales surpassed expectations, driven by the continued growth of its Taco Bell fast-food chain.
* Humana Inc. spent less money on medical care than Wall Street expected in the quarter, easing investor concerns about how rising medical costs are making business more difficult for US health insurers.
* Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. broke with its cruise peers by warning that cruise demand, which has long defied worrying travel trends, is beginning to weaken.
* Visa Inc.’s fiscal second-quarter earnings beat analysts’ estimates as spending on its payment network remained resilient despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
* Snap Inc. narrowly beat analysts’ estimates for first-quarter revenue but declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it’s navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business.
* Booking Holdings Inc., the parent to travel brands including Kayak and Priceline, adjusted its revenue outlook due to what the company called increased economic uncertainty.
* First Solar Inc. cut earnings guidance following tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1329
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3329
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 143.02 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $94,279.21
* Ether fell 0.8% to $1,795.63
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.44%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.44%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.6% to $58.22 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,292.31 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If you really look closely, most overnight successes took a long time. –Steve Jobs, 1955-2011.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com