September 23, 2021 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On this day in 1846, German astronomer Johann Galle and assistant Heinrich d’Arrest discovered planet Neptune.

1990 Iraq threatened to destroy Middle East oil fields and attack Israel if other nations tried to force it from Kuwait. Go to article »

Euripides, playwright, b.480 BC.
John Coltrane, musician, b. 1926
Ray Charles, musician, b. 1930
Julio Iglesias, singer, b. 1943.
Bruce Springsteen, musician, b. 1949.

People who eat more dairy fat have lower risk of heart disease, study suggests.  Repeat this to yourself the next time you tear into a wheel of brie. 

Bitcoin for beginners: Here’s what to know before you invest in crypto.  Step 1: Actually, confidently, truly understanding what Bitcoin is
 
See the world:
This week The New York Times Magazine is publishing its annual Voyages issue, in which writers and photographers capture snapshots of life from around the world.
In the Alps, a photographer offers a glimpse into her Swiss childhood with a beautiful photo essay. In Athens, a writer gave his 7-year-old daughter an in-person classics education.
In Kyiv, Ukraine, a writer partied her way through the city’s underground nightlife scene. And a photographer documented a visit to her parents near Kyoto, Japan — a ritual that the pandemic had disrupted.
A writer who could’ve gone anywhere in the world chose Spokane, Wash. — for a minor-league baseball game. And on a trip to Las Vegas, a writer and his oldest friends celebrated life, while mourning the friends they had lost. — Sanam Yar, a Morning writer

“This is how bad climate change is getting: wildfires in the West, floods in the East, freezing cold in Texas. Billy Joel’s going to have to write an update for 2021 and call it, ‘Actually, We Did Start the Fire.’” — SETH MEYERS

“The pandemic, systemic racism, income inequality, immigration, gun violence — but here’s the thing. If we don’t address climate change, none of those issues will matter at all. The car is going off a cliff and we’re fiddling with the radio.” — JIMMY KIMMEL

“How could anyone be opposed to trying to fix this? Even if you run an oil company, you and your children and their children are going to have to live on in the world. There’s no Planet B.” — JIMMY KIMMEL
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Snooty the ‘smiling’ Lemon shark in Florida a winner in the 2021 Ocean Photography Awards. The annual awards focus on adventure, conservation and exploration of the deep blue sea
CREDIT: GALICE HOARAU/OCEAN PHOTOGRAPHY AWARDS/TNG

Artists perform on stage during the 4th Budapest Demographic Summit in Budapest, Serbia.The biannual demographic summit, which was first organised in 2015, offers a forum for “pro-family thinker” decision-makers, scientists, researchers, and church representatives of the same sort to exchange their thoughts about connections between demographics and sustainability
CREDIT: AP PHOTO/LASZLO BALOGH

A combination photograph showing Fulani and Tuareg nomads from several Sahel and Sahara countries took part in a three-day pastoral festival, the Cure Salee, held on the outskirts of the old commercial town of Ingall, northern Niger
CREDIT: MICHELE CATTANI/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

A firefighter watches flame and smoke rise into the air as trees burn during the Windy Fire in the Sequoia National Forest near Johnsondale, California
CREDIT: PATRICK. T. FALLON/AFP
Market Closes for September 23^rd, 2021

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1998, Wall Street’s top investment banks, encouraged by the Federal Reserve, completed marathon negotiations for a $3.65 billion bailout of the giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, which lost nearly $2 billion in a single month when the mathematical models designed by two Nobel laureates failed.
Canada
By Michael Bellusci
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.3%, or 60.44 to 20,461.93 in Toronto.
Energy stocks jumped with oil. Financials also rose, with Royal Bank of Canada contributing the most to the index gain, increasing 1.4%. BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 11%.
Today, 107 of 235 shares rose, while 126 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Brent crude futures settled at the highest level in almost  three years as supplies shrink at a time when a global energy crunch makes it increasingly likely oil will be tapped for power generation.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17 percent, heading for the best year since 2019
* This quarter, the index rose 1.5 percent
* This month, the index fell 0.6 percent, heading for the biggest decline since October 2020
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 29 percent in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 38 percent in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.1 percent below its 52-week high on Sept. 7, 2021 and 32.7 percent above its low on Oct. 30, 2020
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.7 percent in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 16.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5 percent on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.22t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.63 percent compared with 8.59 percent in the previous session and the average of 6.93 percent over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 64.3267| 1.0| 21/7
Energy | 35.9402| 1.4| 20/3
Consumer Discretionary | 4.9193| 0.6| 11/2
Health Care | 3.9006| 1.9| 6/3
Industrials | 2.5032| 0.1| 17/13
Information Technology | 0.8736| 0.0| 7/8
Communication Services | 0.2265| 0.0| 4/3
Real Estate | -2.4878| -0.4| 6/19
Consumer Staples | -4.8582| -0.7| 3/10
Utilities | -11.1801| -1.2| 1/15
Materials | -33.7763| -1.5| 11/43
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Royal Bank of Canada| 17.2000| 1.4| -20.6| 22.5
TD Bank | 12.5100| 1.2| 63.7| 15.7
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | 8.9680| 2.5| -47.1| 44.9
Franco-Nevada | -6.2160| -2.7| 26.0| 5.3
Barrick Gold | -6.2900| -2.2| 20.7| -19.7
Wheaton Precious | | | |
Metals | -6.8390| -4.2| 13.8| -6
US
By Kamaron Leach and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rallied for a second day as investors embraced the Federal Reserve’s bullish economic outlook while downplaying the risk of contagion from turmoil in Chinese debt markets.
Yields jumped worldwide after the Bank of England moved closer to raising rates and the dollar weakened.
The S&P 500 registered its biggest two-day gain since July, jumping 2.2%, with the Fed signaling on Wednesday that it’s on track to start scaling back asset purchases this year as the recovery takes hold. Yields climbed globally led by the U.K. market, where the 10-year gilt yield topped 0.90% for the first time since May after the Bank of England opened the door to a 2021 rate increase to contain a surge in inflation.
Treasury yields surged, led by the 30-year, which rose about 12 basis points in the biggest increase in more than a year.
“A hawkish Fed was surprisingly welcomed by equity markets as it was seen as a confirmation of continued strength and ‘substantial progress’ made by the economy in recovering from the COVID shock,” said Anu Gaggar, global investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. “While we are far from the end of QE and near-zero rates, the tide seems to be beginning to change. So far, the market had welcomed bad news as good news, but a market reacting to signs of an economy able to stand on its own without the monetary policy crutches is a refreshing change.”

Even with Thursday’s jump in yields, confidence is building that markets can ride out a pullback in Fed stimulus, unlike 2013 when the so-called taper tantrum triggered large losses in bonds and equities. Investors are betting that the economic and profit recovery will be strong enough to outweigh a reduction in asset purchases, while ultra-low rates will continue to support riskier assets even as concerns linger about contagion from China’s real-estate woes.
“The turbo-charged taper — a little bit of a surprise, it was coming in a relatively short period that they’re planning for this, but the markets are OK with that at the end of the day,” Paul Donovan, UBS’s global chief economist, said during a Bloomberg TV interview.
Meanwhile, the British pound rallied and gilts declined as traders brought forward wagers on a Bank of England rate hike to 0.25% after officials said developments since its August meeting  appear to have strengthened the case for modest tightening.
Stocks briefly pared gains during European market hours after a report that Chinese authorities signaled reluctance to bail out Evergrande, even as Beijing injected more cash into the financial system and regulators instructed the embattled property developer to avoid a near-term default.
Fears of an Evergrande failure have caused a sharp rise in borrowing costs for other junk-rated Chinese developers and cast doubt on the health of some smaller Chinese banks.
Elsewhere, emerging-market stocks climbed for a third day.
Turkey’s lira slumped to record low against the dollar after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates.
Oil gained and gold declined, while Bitcoin steadied around $44,000.
Here are key events to watch this week:
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discuss pandemic recovery, Friday

Here are the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.2% as of 4:03 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1740
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.3723
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 110.28 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 12 basis points to 1.42%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to -0.26%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 11 basis points to 0.91%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $73.21 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.8% to $1,747.30 an ounce
–With assistance from Elizabeth Stanton and Edward Bolingbroke.
Have a wonderful evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Divide each difficulty into as many parts as is feasible and necessary to resolve it. –Rene Descartes, 1596-1650.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com