September 19, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

September 19, 1759 The French surrendered Quebec to the British. Go to article >>
September 19, 1783: The Montgolfier brothers send aloft a balloon with a rooster, a duck, and a sheep aboard, rapidly advancing French aeronautics.
September 19, 1969: The Guggenheim Museum opens a solo exhibition of the work of  Roy Lichtenstein.

1985: Mexico City earthquake: 10,000 killed.

Wm. Golding, author,  b. 1911.
Twiggy, model, b. 1949.

Fans await ‘SNL’ Season 50 and its star lineup
Everyone likes a good laugh, and “Saturday Night Live” promises to provide many of them when the show returns later this month. These stars are set to host or perform during the show’s historic 50th season.

How to win the fight with kids over phone use
Many young kids spend too much time in front of their screens — siri-ously. Here’s how you can set rules for smartphone use in your household.

The Smoky Mountains’ highest peak returns to Native American name
Great Smoky Mountains National Park, on the Tennessee-North Carolina border, is America’s most visited national park. Its highest peak is now officially reverting to its Cherokee name after more than 150 years.

Meet the billionaire building Bangkok’s newest megamall
While malls shutter in the US, it’s a different story in Asia. Thai billionaire Elle Supaluck Umpujh tells CNN how she found “a winning formula for retail” before she became chairwoman of The Mall Group.

1.5 billion:

That’s at least how many golf balls are lost in the US each year, according to Found Golf Balls CEO Shaun Shienfield, whose company recovers and resells millions of lost balls across the US and Canada. A course manager for the Danish Golf Union — which has researched the sport’s environmental impact — said “the worldwide figure could easily exceed 3 to 5 billion golf balls lost each year.”

Record-breaking fires engulf South America, bringing black rain, green rivers and toxic air to the continent
The Amazon fires, fueled by severe drought exacerbated by climate change, have created a toxic smoke cloud spanning about 4 million square miles — an area larger than the entire United States. Read More.

Biggest black hole jets ever seen are as long as 140 Milky Ways
The largest-ever black hole jets ever seen hint that these cosmic monsters may play an even more significant role in shaping galaxies than previously thought. Read More.

‘What is normal today may not be normal in a year’s time’: Dr. Dinesh Bhugra on the idea of ‘normal’ in psychiatry
Live Science spoke with leading psychiatrist Dr. Dinesh Bhugra ahead of his appearance at the HowTheLightGetsIn festival in London. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The supermoon between cathedral towers in Molfetta, Italy.
Photograph: Davide Pischettola/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock

London, UK
Stags clash antlers as the annual deer rutting season begins in Richmond Park
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

​​​​​​​Barcelona, Spain
Construction workers at the Sagrada Família Basilica, on which construction began in 1882. It has been announced that the cathedral’s largest and last spire, the Jesus Christ spire, will be finished in 2025, with a viewpoint from which 11 people at a time will be able to look over the city. The following year, a 17-metre cross will be placed on top of the spire and the cathedral completed, to coincide with the centenary of the death of its architect, Antoni Gaudí
Photograph: Alejandro García/EPA
Market Closes for September 19^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1974, Treasury Secretary William E. Simon predicted that interest rates, then around 8%, would soon fall. The Dow leapt 3.4% on the good news. Over the next seven years, interest rates proceeded to double.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.2% at 23,866.27 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since Aug. 15 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 183 of 226 shares rose, while 40 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.1%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 6.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 13 times. The next day, it advanced 11 times for an average 0.6% and declined twice for an average 1%
* This year, the index rose 14%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.1%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 28% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.74t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.43% compared with 10.82% in the previous session and the average of 13.66% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 101.8220| 1.3| 25/2
Information Technology | 65.3807| 3.3| 10/0
Materials | 45.2221| 1.6| 47/4
Industrials | 33.8767| 1.1| 25/3
Energy | 29.1200| 0.7| 35/5
Consumer Discretionary | 9.6100| 1.2| 11/2
Real Estate | 2.8398| 0.5| 16/4
Health Care | 0.4351| 0.6| 3/1
Consumer Staples | -3.4259| -0.4| 4/7
Communication Services | -4.5676| -0.6| 3/1
Utilities | -6.6600| -0.7| 4/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 35.8300| 4.1| 120.1| 3.5
Brookfield Corp | 27.6500| 4.1| 18.0| 33.2
TD Bank | 25.5100| 2.4| 41.7| 2.0
BCE | -5.0360| -1.6| 28.1| -8.5
Enbridge | -5.3480| -0.7| -37.4| 14.9
TC Energy | -12.0300| -2.7| 64.0| 17.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders betting the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing spurred a rally in riskier corners of the market, with stocks hitting all-time highs.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.7% — notching its 39th record in 2024 and extending this year’s surge to about 20%.
Tech led gains, while defensive industries underperformed.
The Nasdaq 100 added 2.6% and the Russell 2000 of small caps rose 2.1%.
In late hours, FedEx Corp. tumbled on a bearish outlook. Nike Inc. surged after saying longtime executive Elliott Hill is coming out of retirement to replace John Donahoe as chief executive officer.
While a relative sense of calm prevailed, traders also braced for a quarterly episode known as “triple witching” in which derivatives contracts tied to stocks, index options and futures will mature — potentially amplifying market moves.
About $5.1 trillion are set to expire Friday, according to an estimate from Asym 500.
The options expiry coincides with the rebalancing of benchmark indexes.
The Fed’s bold start to cutting interest rates and its determination not to fall behind the curve re-ignited hopes the central bank will be able to avoid a recession.
Data Thursday showing a slide in jobless claims to the lowest since May signaled the labor market remains healthy despite a slowdown in hiring.
“Despite some volatility after the Fed’s rate cut, the S&P 500’s bullish trend remains intact,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “The Fed’s decision to deliver a 50- basis point rate cut was largely welcomed by investors.
The move was seen as a bold but necessary step to ease economic concerns without sending panic signals reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis.”
The S&P 500 topped 5,700. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 42,000. Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge — the VIX — sank to around 16.
Treasuries were mixed, with shorter-maturities outperforming longer ones.
The dollar fell.
The pound rose as the Bank of England held rates steady and said it won’t rush to ease policy.
The yen dropped ahead of the Bank of Japan policy decision.
Bitcoin jumped 5%.
Equities tend to respond positively to falling policy rates over the next year if a recession is avoided, according to Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services Inc.
There have been six rate cutting cycles for the Fed since 1989 and stocks have been up a year later in four of six instances, he noted.
Looking a bit more granularly, US large caps have outperformed small caps in the year following the first rate cut in four of the previous six instances.
Small caps outperformed, counterintuitively, into the 2001 and 2008 recessions.
“On a short-term basis, small-cap stocks may see a greater boost from rate cuts given these companies generally have a greater proportion of floating rate debt relative to large caps,” he said. “However, small-cap earnings trends are still lagging, and a cooling economy is historically a headwind for the asset class. Thus, we still prefer large caps longer term.”
On a forward price-to-sales measure, the Russell 2000 is trading at the steepest discount to S&P 500 in more than 20 years.
“Historically, equity markets have performed well in periods when the Fed was cutting rates while the US economy was not in recession. We expect this time to be no exception,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Our base case remains for the S&P 500 to reach 5,900 by year-end and advance to 6,200 by June 2025.”
Marcelli says she believes equity gains will broaden out, with continued potential for growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, to rise further.
“Within tech, we expect AI to be a key driver of equity market returns over the coming years and recommend strategic exposure to this theme,” she said. “Investors may use tech sector volatility, which could rise in the months ahead on cyclical and geopolitical risks, to build up long-term exposure to AI at more favorable prices.”
Meantime, the latest MLIV Pulse survey showed that 57% of the 173 respondents believe a rotation into value stocks is likely to accelerate now that the Fed started the easing cycle.
The majority of survey participants, 75%, expect the US to manage a soft landing after the 50 basis-point rate cut, but even those favor value over AI stocks, according to the poll conducted immediately after the decision.
Value was especially popular among those expecting the US to hit a recession.

Key events this week:
* Japan CPI, rate decision, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
* Canada retail sales, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 3.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1162
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3281
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 142.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5% to $63,253.46
* Ether rose 5.9% to $2,461.98
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.72%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.20%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $72.01 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,588.78 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
A gem cannot be polished without friction, nor a man perfected without trials. -Confucius, c. 551 BCE-c. 479 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com