September 16, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
September 16, 1620: Mayflower Day – pilgrims deported from England.  They set sail for America, where they founded Plymouth, Massachusetts, after 41 men, including William Bradford and Myles Standish, signed the Mayflower Compact.
1810: Mexican Independence Day.
1908: General Motors was formed in Flint, Mich., by William Durant. Go to article »

Oktoberfest is back, but the beer’s dear.

You have to wake up very early to have a day like Ferris Bueller …

Michael Jordan’s ‘Last Dance’ jersey fetches a record $10.1 million.  The record sale price now makes it the most expensive basketball jersey ever to sell at auction.

France unveils high-speed trains of the future.  This swanky new train, operating at a maximum speed of nearly 220 mph, will premiere on the Paris rail network next year.

Blazing comet tail is whipped by solar winds in astonishing astronomy photo:  An ethereal image of Comet Leonard traveling against the solar wind has taken the top prize in the Royal Observatory Greenwich’s Astronomy Photographer of the Year contest.  Austrian photographer Gerald Rhemann caught the view of the comet and its sweeping tail on Christmas Day, 2021 from Namibia. Rhemann’s image reveals a ghostly veil of gas from the comet being caught and swept away by solar wind.  Full Story: Live Science (9/16)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

People queue to visit the Palace of Westminster, where the body of Queen Elizabeth II is lying in state
Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Fireworks light up the sky in celebration of the 212th anniversary of the independence of Mexico.
Photograph: Arturo Hernández/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Life returns to ground burnt during the recent wildfires in south-west France
Photograph: Philippe Lopez/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 16, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1920, a bomb went off outside of J.P. Morgan’s Wall Street headquarters. A horse-drawn wagon exploded, killing more than 30 and injuring hundreds. The case was never solved.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.9%, or 174.28 to 19,385.88 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Sept. 7.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.9%.
Cargojet Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.7%.
Today, 163 of 237 shares fell, while 73 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.7%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 2.8%
* So far this week, the index fell 2%
* The index declined 5.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.7% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 6.7% above its low on July 14, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.17% compared with 14.96% in the previous session and the average of 13.62% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -50.7944| -1.4| 6/32
Industrials | -46.6491| -1.9| 3/25
Financials | -44.9794| -0.7| 2/27
Information Technology | -30.3578| -2.9| 1/13
Materials | -5.0030| -0.2| 27/23
Real Estate | -2.7153| -0.5| 8/15
Utilities | -2.2737| -0.2| 7/9
Health Care | -2.1140| -2.8| 2/5
Consumer Discretionary | -2.0645| -0.3| 4/9
Consumer Staples | 4.4314| 0.5| 6/5
Communication Services | 8.2401| 0.9| 7/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -20.7800| -5.9| 107.6| -75.8
Canadian Pacific | -18.7800| -2.9| 310.8| 7.0
RBC | -14.2600| -1.1| 175.8| -5.8
Agnico Eagle Mines | 3.1730| 1.9| 43.9| -17.7
Barrick Gold | 3.9250| 1.6| 14.6| -15.5
BCE | 4.4550| 1.2| 102.4| -5.3
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell, capping the worst week since the market hit its low for the year in June, as FedEx Corp.’s warning added to growing concern over outsized Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.
The S&P 500 fell for a third day this week, down close to 5% for the period.
Dip buyers emerged in afternoon trading, with gains in some big tech names including Nvidia Corp. and Intel Corp.
FedEx plunged more than 20% after the package-delivery giant withdrew its earnings forecast, citing weakening business conditions.
Equity markets took an abrupt pivot lower this week after hotter-than-expected inflation data spurred traders to ratchet up wagers for rate hikes and sparked the worst one-day stock selloff in two years.
Since then swaps continue to price in a 75 basis-point hike when the Fed meets next week — with some wagers leaning toward a full point — and policy-sensitive two-year yields have climbed this week to the highest level since 2007, deepening the curve inversion that’s seen as a recession signal.
“The US is probably at the gate of a recession of an unknown depth — equities see it as very limited, credit markets as contained while the 2-10 slope expects a more dire situation,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management. “A significant layer of macro uncertainty now dominates markets.”
On the technical side, the S&P 500’s pivot below a key Fibonacci retracement of June-August rally has Win Thin, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, suggesting stocks could revisit June lows.
“It really reflects the ongoing repricing of risk assets in a world of tighter and tighter liquidity,” he said. “Equities, EM, risk all benefited from years of zero interest rates and now we are seeing the other side of that trade.”
FedEx’s warning comes as companies across industries start to paint a grimmer picture of the economy.
Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett said an earnings recession will likely drive US stocks to new lows, well below current levels.
Traders briefly priced the Fed’s key policy rate peaking at 4.5% in March this week as the central bank escalates its effort to contain inflation.
That expected peak was up by a full percentage point since the Fed’s last policy meeting in July.
A gauge of dollar strength was little changed, with greenback trading mixed against major peers.
A University of Michigan survey showed inflation expectations dipped, with consumers expecting prices will climb at an annual rate of 2.8% over the next five to 10 years, the lowest since July 2021, according to the survey.
They see costs rising 4.6% over the next year, the lowest since last September.
Europe’s benchmark share gauge fell for a fourth day of losses, with mail and parcel delivery companies taking a hit after FedEx’s warning.
The UK’s benchmark outperformed as the British pound sank to its weakest level against the dollar since 1985. 
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0013
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.1424
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 142.91 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 1.76%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $85.30 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,683.80 an ounce
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Robert Brand, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.
Have a lovely weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Heaven will solve our problems, but not, I think, by showing us subtle reconciliations between all our apparently contradictory notions.
The notions will all be knocked from under our feet.  We shall see that there never was any problem.  And, more than once, that
impression which I can’t describe except by saying that it’s like sound of a chuckle in the darkness.  The sense that some
shattering and disarming simplicity is the real answer. –C.S. Lewis, 1898-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com