Dear Friends,
Tangents:
Autumn is the hardest season. Leaves are all falling like they are falling in love with the ground. –Andrea Gibson, 1975-2025.
October 1, 1890: Yosemite National Park established.
October 1, 1908: Henry Ford introduced the Model T automobile to the market; each car cost $825. Go to article
October 1, 1949: Mao Zedong proclaims the founding of the People’s Republic of China, reshaping world order in East Asia.
October 1, 1962: Johnny Carson takes over as host of NBC’s Tonight Show, with Groucho Marx as hi8s first guest.
Julie Andrews, actress, b. 1935.
| Life-size rock art points the way to oldest human inhabitants of Saudi Arabia — and the desert oases they used |
Archaeologists in Saudi Arabia have discovered hundreds of rock art engravings that were carved by humans more than 12,000 years ago. Read More.
| Scientists have digitally removed the ‘death masks’ from four Colombian mummies, revealing their faces for the first time |
The reconstructions are based on the skulls of four mummified individuals who had masks tightly fitted on their faces. Read More.
| Stars that brush past black holes live longer, stranger lives after their close encounters with death |
A new study shows survivor stars can live billions of years longer than normal, carrying chemical fingerprints of their violent encounters with the Milky Way’s black hole. Read More.
‘I honestly am not sure on this at all’: Poll reveals public uncertainty over experimenting on conscious lab-grown ‘mini brains’
Hundreds of readers responded to our poll asking if it would be OK to experiment on lab-grown “brains” if they became conscious. Read More.
The richest deal in NHL history
The Minnesota Wild signed Kirill Kaprizov to an 8-year, $136 million extension on Tuesday, giving him the richest contract in NHL history.
Zillow and Redfin face FTC lawsuit
Home-search website Zillow allegedly paid its rival Redfin $100 million to dominate online rental listings, the FTC said in a new lawsuit.
| “She was just my daughter yesterday, but today she is a goddess.” |
| — Ananta Shakya, after his 2-year-old daughter Aryatara was chosen in Nepal as the new living goddess worshipped by both Hindus and Buddhists. |
RIP JANE GOODALL
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Shepton Mallet, UK
Cattle are prepared for judging at the Dairy Show at the Bath and West showground
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images
Seoul, South Korea
People walk though a field of yellow cosmos flowers at Olympic Park
Photograph: Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images
Sydney, Australia
France’s Lucie Prioux competes in the women’s canoe final at the 2025 ICF Slalom World Championships at the Penrith Whitewater stadium
Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 1st, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46441.10 | +43.21 |
| +0.09% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6711.20 | +22.74 |
| +0.34% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22755.16 | +95.15 |
| +0.42% | ||
| TSX | 30107.67 | +84.86 |
| +0.28% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 44550.85 | -381.78 |
| -0.85% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26855.56 | +232.68 |
| +0.87% | ||
| SENSEX | 80983.31 | +715.69 |
| +0.89% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9446.43 | +96.00 |
| +1.03% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.184 | 3.183 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.663 | 3.631 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0981 | 4.1503 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7095 | 4.7310 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7174 | 0.7182 |
| US $ |
1.3939 | 1.3923 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6358 | 0.6113 |
| US $ |
1.1735 | 0.8521 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3825.30 | 3826.85 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 61.78 | 62.37 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1958, American Express introduced its charge card, which was made of paper printed with purple ink to match the color of Amex’s travelers’ checks. (Plastic came along in 1959.) The $6 annual fee was 20% higher than that of the competing Diners Club card.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.3%, or 84.86 to 30,107.67 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.9%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 15.0%.
Today, 139 of 213 shares rose, while 72 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 35.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 18.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.8t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 6.91% compared with 6.91% in the previous session and the average of 8.14% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | 47.2113| 0.9| 37/14
Information Technology | 29.4452| 1.0| 5/4
Financials | 9.7377| 0.1| 11/13
Utilities | 7.4489| 0.7| 9/5
Communication Services | 5.5483| 0.9| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 5.3130| 0.6| 5/4
Industrials | 4.6890| 0.1| 18/10
Health Care | 1.8554| 2.3| 4/0
Consumer Staples | 0.0749| 0.0| 3/7
Real Estate | -0.4674| -0.1| 14/5
Energy | -26.0142| -0.6| 28/10
Shopify | 15.8500| 0.9| -36.0| 36.4
Barrick Mining | 15.3600| 2.8| -42.3| 110.9
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 10.2200| 1.2| -55.9| 111.0
Brookfield Corp | -8.2340| -0.9| -43.0| 14.6
Nutrien | -9.4500| -3.4| 4.6| 22.7
Enbridge | -15.9800| -1.5| -24.1| 13.4
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted it’s third-straight record close on Wednesday, a first such string of records since mid-September, boosted by gold’s rise to a record high, which led to Base Metals being among leading sectors, most of which were higher.
With the Energy sector one of only a few losers on the day, down a modest 0.15%, Base Metals helped push the resource-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index up 84.86 points. or 0.3%, to 30,107.67.
Health Care was the biggest gainer, up near 3%.
Still, it was the Energy sector that was very much in the news late Wednesday afternoon as Alberta’s government, acting as proponent, said it will lead a technical advisory group of companies with indigenous participants to advance a West Coast pipeline application
Among commodities, gold had traded at a fresh record late midafternoon Wednesday as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government today prompted further safe-haven buying, while a report showed the U.S. private sector shed jobs last month, showing a slowing economy and boosting the outlook for interest-rate cuts.
Gold for December delivery was up $17.00 to US$3,890.20 per ounce.
However, likely limiting overall market gains, West Texas Intermediate oil closed lower for a third day following a report saying OPEC+ is mulling an outsized production increase in November, while U.S. inventories rose more than expected last week.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.59 to settle at US$61.78 per barrel, while December Brent crude was last seen down $0.71 to US$65.32.
Still on commodity related issues, Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, noted that over the past year, U.S. electricity prices have bolted higher by 6.2%.
“Amazingly,” he said, “that is actually a tad cooler than the supercharged 6.5% average annual increase over the past five years”.
According to Porter, there’s no mystery as to what’s going on here as the “voracious appetite” for power from data centers has “sent once-sleepy electricity demand skyward”.
Given electricity’s near-2.5% weight in the CPI, the price surge has alone contributed 0.15 ppt to overall inflation, or about 0.1 ppt more than what would be ‘normal’ price increases in the sector, he Porter added.
Porter noted it’s currently “a more moderate picture” in Canada, both because of “somewhat” less frothy demand and more regulated prices. In fact, he said, while rising 3.2% on average in the past five years, half the U.S. pace-electricity costs are up just 1.4% in the past year.
On the economics front, Tiago Figueiredo, a Desjardins macro strategist, said, after reading the Bank of Canada’s latest ‘Summary of Deliberations’, there were several developments since the July Monetary Policy Report that pushed the BoC to resume an interest rate easing cycle in September, even as there were some arguments in favor of keeping policy unchanged, while Governing Council members didn’t offer any clues about the future path.
According to Figueiredo, a softening labor market, particularly in parts of the economy that were not as trade exposed “startled” the Governing Council.
He noted: given that survey data pointed to subdued hiring intentions, policymakers were worried that ongoing “uncertainty about U.S. trade policy could lead to further labour market weakness across the economy”.
And outside of the labor market, the latest inflation data also suggested that, one, upward momentum in core inflation had dissipated, and two, the federal government’s decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs meant less upward pressure on prices going forward.
While members agreed that upside risks to price growth had diminished, they had not gone away, Figueiredo noted.
The Governing Council viewed the strong consumption growth in the second quarter as a potential indicator of stronger economic momentum going forward, Figueiredo said, before adding they pointed to past rate cuts as potential drivers of that strength and reiterated that past rate cuts were still spreading through the economy.
But, Figueiredo said, the Governing Council noted that easing trade uncertainty would likely mean policymakers would present a baseline projection at the October MPR.
Governing Council emphasized that they would continue to look over a shorter horizon than usual.
“Today’s release doesn’t change the story for us and we continue to see the balance of risks skewed towards further easing.
As such, we anticipate that policymakers will lower the overnight rate to a trough of 2.00%,” he added.
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — US stocks ended Wednesday’s session higher, notching a new record and seemingly shrugging off the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.
Treasuries rallied after private payrolls data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later this month.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose for a fourth consecutive session.
On Wednesday, the former was boosted by the health-care sector on optimism stemming from Pfizer Inc.’s deal with the White House.
Tech names like Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. also helped push the index 0.3% higher for the day.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.08% before hovering around 4.10%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held steady.
Gold reached a fresh all-time high.
The government shutdown threatens a blackout in crucial economic data that the Fed needs to make its rate decisions, meaning economists, traders and policymakers will rely more on private reports like the ones that came in on Wednesday.
The ADP report showed payrolls at US companies unexpectedly dropped in September, consistent with other data over the past month indicating that the labor market is slowing.
That prompted traders to add to bets on two more Fed rate cuts this year.
US factory activity shrank in September for a seventh straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
The JOLTS report on Tuesday, had signaled that demand for
workers are slowing, giving traders a snapshot of the labor market at a time the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data will likely be delayed.
Given all this information, some investors don’t think the absence of Friday’s report will derail the Fed.
“We believe that even if the September nonfarm payroll report cannot be published before the Fed meeting, officials will have enough information about the labor market to deliver another 25-basis point ‘insurance’ cut at the October meeting,” said Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg.
Others are also looking at previous shutdowns to determine that such events don’t last long and often have a negligible macroeconomic impact.
“What sets this shutdown apart is the threat of permanent layoffs for non-essential federal staff, which, while possibly political bluster and subject to legal challenges, could prolong the drag on public sector payrolls,” Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.
At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he doesn’t anticipate a long shutdown, adding that layoffs will come if it lasts days or weeks.
Republicans are leaning into hardball tactics to pressure Democrats to cave to end the shutdown, with White House Budget Director Russell Vought planning to swiftly dismiss federal workers.
But for now, Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup’s head of US equity trading strategy, doesn’t really see the shutdown hurting stocks.
“For this to really impact equity markets you’re going to need it to last for a while, you’re going to need to see pretty large layoffs, or something happen in the bond market to spill over into the equity market,” he said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Late-in-the-year seasonality favors stocks as the dominant US asset, while the dollar has been doomed to be a laggard.
This year is likely to follow that pattern, even as a US shutdown adds a new factor into the mix.”
— Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live
That said, on the long term, the government shutdown could magnify concerns about US policy stability, Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, wrote in a note.
“Investors can operate under a simple rule of thumb: the longer a shutdown lasts, the greater its effects on consumer confidence, economic activity, and market outcomes,” she said.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1730
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3479
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 147.10 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $117,390.42
* Ether rose 3.3% to $4,334.3
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.10%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $61.97 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,867.16 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success. –Edward Everett Hale, 1822-1909.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com