October 1st, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

October 1, 1949: Mao Zedong declares the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.
October 1, 1962: Johnny Carson takes over as host of NBC’s Tonight Show, with Grouch Marx as his first guest.
October 1, 2008: A $700 billion financial industry bailout won lopsided passage in the Senate, 74-25, after it was loaded with tax breaks and other sweeteners.   Go to article >>

1890: Yosemite National Park established.

Jimmy Carter, 39^th President of the USA, b.1924.
Julie Andrews, b. 1935.

Can you see Earth’s new ‘minimoon’ with the naked eye?
On Sunday, Sept. 29, Earth captured a new “minimoon” called 2024 PT5. The bus-size asteroid is expected to orbit our planet for 57 days, but is too small to be visible to amateur skywatchers. Read More.

50 Viking Age burials discovered in Denmark, including a woman in a rare ‘Viking wagon’
Finding a Viking Age burial ground of this size is rare, in part because Scandinavian soil doesn’t preserve skeletons well. Read More.

Are there any planets in the universe that aren’t round?
Earth is round, but are there any planets in the universe that aren’t? Read More.

History of quantum computing: 12 key moments that shaped the future of computers
Although quantum computing is a nascent field, there are plenty of key moments that defined it over the last few decades as scientists strive to create machines that can solve impossible problems. Read More.

Thousands of kids made cards for Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday
More than 4,000 students from coast to coast got creative and sent hand-drawn birthday cards to celebrate the former president. Empaths, this sweet gesture is so heartwarming … you may need a tissue to crayon.

LeBron James and son Bronny share special moments during Lakers media day
The pair is expected to soon make history as the first father-son duo to play together on an NBA team. Nineteen-year-old Bronny James shared his hopes for the upcoming season at his first Lakers media day on Monday

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Suffolk, UK
‘One evening, this barn owl was standing at the entrance to her nest, waiting for the rain to stop. It felt like a rare opportunity to see this. Photo taken in Great Livermere.’
Photograph: Mara Puiu

Ladakh, India
‘The Tsarap River, fed by melting snow, flows below the Phuktal monastery. Unusual for this arid, high-altitude region are the lowering rain clouds. The overcast lighting brings out the subtle shades of the bare sedimentary rock strata.’
Photograph: Timothy A Gonsalves

​​​​​​​Pont Drift, Botswana
‘A very young elephant enjoying a mid-morning bath at the hide waterhole in Mashatu game reserve.’
Photograph: Frank Warwick
Market Closes for October 1^st, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1928, the Dow Jones Industrial Average assumed its modern form, adding 10 new members so that it comprised 30 stocks. Among them were Nash Motors, Texas Gulf Sulphur and Victor Talking Machine.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.1%, or 33.62 to 24,033.99 in Toronto.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 2 of 11 sectors gained; 129 of 223 shares rose, while 92 fell.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 4.5%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 15%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 32% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Sept. 26, 2024 and 28.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.81t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.70% compared with 9.81% in the previous session and the average of 12.05% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 96.9008| 2.4| 39/1
Materials | 29.2935| 1.0| 40/11
Utilities | -0.1849| 0.0| 9/6
Health Care | -0.8344| -1.1| 1/3
Real Estate | -2.0929| -0.4| 10/10
Communication Services | -3.4721| -0.5| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -4.6238| -0.5| 2/9
Consumer Discretionary | -5.6796| -0.7| 3/9
Financials | -17.6653| -0.2| 14/13
Industrials | -23.4898| -0.8| 9/17
Information Technology | -34.5303| -1.7| 0/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 29.8800| 4.5| -48.8| 8.1
Suncor | 17.7500| 4.0| -50.8| 22.3
Enbridge | 8.6710| 1.0| -23.2| 16.4
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -13.6900| -1.8| -15.2| 8.3
RBC | -17.0000| -1.0| 30.7| 24.7
Shopify | -20.0400| -2.2| -17.6| 2.7
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — The persistent rally in stocks was knocked for a loop Tuesday as investors retreated to safer corners of the market when the conflict in the Middle East intensified.
Haven assets were bid up with bonds, oil, gold and the US dollar all advancing after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel following an advance of armed forcesinto Lebanon.
The US is actively supporting preparations to defend Israel, according to an earlier report.
Gold climbed above $2,670 an ounce during the trading day while oil briefly topped $71 a barrel.
“Markets are in wait and see mode,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “The next 24 hours will be critical to see how far this situation escalates and whether the rush to safe havens was justified.”
If the conflict blows over, she expects stocks and tech shares to recover.
The tech sector was the session’s worst performer with Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. sinking around 3%.
The Nasdaq 100 trimmed a more than 2% loss to a 1.4% drop in afternoon trading.
The S&P 500 fell 0.9% while Treasuries held onto an advance.
The clash eclipsed the signals from Tuesday’s economic data.
The US ISM price index fell by the most since May 2023, while US job openings rose in August to a three-month high, at odds with other readouts indicating slowing demand for workers.
Treasury yields remained lower with the 10-year hovering around 3.74%.
“Today’s reports should weigh down the 10-year yield, dollar, and employment service stocks, though the payroll release is more influential,” according to Evercore ISI’s Stan Shipley, alluding to Friday’s highly anticipated employment readout. “However, geopolitical stories out of the Mideast are more important for Treasury markets.”
A longshoremen’s strike was also stirring up angst as the longer traffic at major US container ports is shuttered, the bigger the economic losses.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates the stoppage will cost as much as $4.5 billion a day.
Investors will also get a chance to hear from vice presidential nominees JD Vance and Tim Walz in their sole debate of this election season in US afterhours.
The would-be VPs are trying to win crucial swing voters in the lead up to November.
Shares of Nike Inc. weakened in post market trading after the athleticwear maker reported quarterly revenue that missed estimates.
Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — spiked higher, touching a key level that usually indicates more market swings are in store.
Tuesday kicks off a historically positive, though often volatile, period for equities.
The S&P 500 set its 43rd closing record on Monday notching a third-quarter rally that capped the longest such winning stretch since 2021.
“October has been a much friendlier month to bulls from start to finish, but in between it hasn’t been a walk in the park,” according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
The S&P 500’s average intramonth peak-to-trough decline of around 4.6% is the largest of any month, according to Bespoke data going back to 1945.
In money markets, swaps trader are wagering on a one-in-three chance the Fed will deliver another half-point cut in November, but that may not pan out as expected, Larry Fink warned.
“The amount of easing that’s in the forward curve is crazy,” Fink, the chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc. said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “There’s room for easing more, but not as much as the forward curve would indicate.”
Rate-Cut Bets Elsewhere, Euro-area inflation slowed below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time since 2021, prompting money markets to add to bets on another quarter-point decrease by the ECB this month.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank is growing more optimistic about reining in price pressures. 

Key events this week: 
* South Korea CPI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday
* Fed speakers include Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Wednesday
* US nonfarm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1068
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.3282
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.55 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $61,750.38
* Ether fell 4.8% to $2,488
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.74%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 2.04%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 3.94%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.2% to $70.37 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,658.81 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Allegra Catelli, Alice Atkins, Cecile Gutscher and Margaryta Kirakosian.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
When you betray somebody else, you also betray yourself. – Isaac Bashevis Singer, 1904-1991.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com