October 01, 2019 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Happy Rosh Hashanah from yesterday.

Jimmy Carter, 39^th President, b. 1924.
Julie Andrews, actress, b. 1935
2008 A $700 billion financial industry bailout won lopsided passage in the Senate, 74-25, after it was loaded with tax breaks and other sweeteners. Go to article »

This article appeared in the Wall Street Journal on September 19^th, 2019:
The Brief Splendor of Autumn, and of Keats
                             -By Christopher J. Scalia
The autumnal equinox isn’t until Monday, and my favorite football team has already lost to its archrival. Fortunately I have a fall ritual that never disappoints: Every September I read John Keats’s “To Autumn.” That tradition has special significance this season, the ode’s 200th anniversary.
I’ve loved “To Autumn” since I first read it in college. I was entranced then, as now, by the way in which the poem captures this season’s fleeting beauty. From its famous opening line (“Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness”) to the quiet music of its final image (“gathering swallows twitter in the skies”), it evokes the delicate abundance of these weeks. Keats’s writing affects me the way the season itself does: I wish the poem would last longer even as I know its power lies in its brevity.
The brevity of Keats’s own life adds a tragic poignance to his poetry. He wrote much of his best verse when he was 23. He had abandoned a medical career to devote himself to poetry two years earlier. He published his first collection in 1817 and a long poetic romance in 1818. Undeterred by bad reviews and meager sales, he continued writing even as he cared for his sick brother, Tom, who died of tuberculosis in December 1818. (Their mother had died of the same disease eight years earlier.)
John Keats’s resolve bore fruit. In January and February 1819, he wrote the dark romance “The Eve of St. Agnes”; in the spring, the haunting ballad “La Belle Dame Sans Merci” and a handful of fine sonnets; and over several months, the six poems that we now know as his Great Odes, including “To Autumn.”
These odes also include “Ode on a Grecian Urn,” with its famous statement: “ ‘Beauty is truth, truth beauty,’—that is all / Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.” The power of artistic expression is more tenuous in “Ode to a Nightingale,” composed in the May of Keats’s annus mirabilis. Its speaker yearns to escape the pain of everyday life “on the viewless wings of Poesy,” only to find the spell is ephemeral. The poem’s influence lingers: F. Scott Fitzgerald, Tony Bennett, Jackson Browne and the Britpop band Blur all pinched its phrase “tender is the night” for their own purposes.
Not everything Keats wrote that year was excellent. He abandoned a long poem he had started the year before, tried rewriting it, and again left it incomplete. He wrote a tragedy that wasn’t staged until 1950 (no tragedy there). He started and abandoned a second play. And he used the word “adieu” an awful lot. The forgotten duds amid famous successes remind us that Keats could have used some ripening.
But 1819 would be his last year of writing poetry. The following February, Keats coughed up some blood. He knew what that meant. He wrote to a friend, “That drop of blood is my death-warrant;—I must die.” Keats moved to Rome in the hope that the climate would mitigate his tuberculosis. He died there in February 1821.
Keats had asked to have his headstone inscribed, “Here lies one whose name was writ in water.” An epitaph full of beauty—but, as 200 years have shown, not truth. The seasons turn, yet Keats reminds me still that fleeting splendor has a captivating power of its own.

Mr. Scalia is a co-editor of Justice Antonin Scalia’s book “On Faith: Lessons From an American Believer.”

-from ODE TO AUTUMN
            -John Keats
…while barred clouds bloom the soft-dying day
And touch the stubble-plains with rosy hue;
Then in a wailful choir the smaill gnats mourn
Among the river-sallows, borne aloft
Or sinking as the light wind lives or dies;
And full-grown lambs loud bleat from hilly bourn;
Hedge-crickets sing; and now with treble soft
The redbreast whistles from a garden-croft;
And gathering swallows twitter in the skies.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
 
A gallery assistant observe Tony Cragg’s sculpture Constant Change, 2005, during a press preview at Bonhams New Bond Street, London, ahead of its sale by auction ay Bonhams’ Post -War and Contemporary Sale on October 3. The stainless steel, 4.5m tall sculpture is expected to fetch between £450,000 – £600,000.
CREDIT: AARON CHOWN/PA WIRE

The aurora shines above Dunstanburgh Castle in Northumberland, UK. For one of the first times this year the aurora was viable from parts of Northern England.
CREDIT: CRAIG MCDEARMID/SWNS.COM

Hot air balloons glide over Goreme district during early morning at the historical Cappadocia region, located in Central Anatolia’s Nevsehir province, Turkey. Cappadocia is preserved as a UNESCO World Heritage site and is famous for its chimney rocks, hot air balloon trips, underground cities and boutique hotels carved into rocks. In Turkey’s one of the most important tourism regions Cappadocia, local and foreign tourists get the chance of enjoying the scenery participating air balloon tours in the early hours of the morning,
CREDIT: SERCAN KUCUKSAHIN/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES

Market Closes for October 01^st, 2019  

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1970, Walmart went public over-the-counter, issuing 300,000 shares at an initial price of $16.50. Today, the nation’s largest retailer and private employer has a market value of about $340 billion. 
The S&P 500 jumped and will now enter the fourth quarter with its biggest year-to-date gain in more than two decades.
The broad stock-market index has rallied nearly 19% this year—its best performance in the first three quarters of a year since 1997. The advance comes alongside a rally in both bonds and commodities. For the quarter, the S&P gained 1.2%. 
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 1.3 percent, or 210.97 to 16,447.66 in Toronto. The move was the biggest loss since Aug. 23. Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 185 of 233 shares fell, while 46 rose. Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.6 percent. Bombardier Inc. had the largest drop, falling 10.6 percent.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 10 times. The next day, it advanced six times for an  average 0.6 percent and declined four times for an average 0.9 percent
* This year, the index rose 15 percent, heading for the best year since 2016
* The index advanced 2.1 percent in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 0.4 percent in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.9 percent below its 52-week high on Sept. 20, 2019 and 19.4 percent above its low on Dec. 24, 2018
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.1 percent in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1 percent on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.56 trillion
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.38 percent compared with 7.56 percent in the previous session and the average of 10.19 percent over the past month

================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -73.5061| -1.3| 2/25
Energy | -48.2263| -1.8| 1/30
Industrials | -40.6539| -2.2| 1/30
Health Care | -12.7293| -5.5| 1/9
Consumer Discretionary | -8.9980| -1.2| 3/13
Real Estate | -8.2751| -1.4| 2/23
Materials | -6.7240| -0.4| 20/29
Information Technology | -6.6746| -0.8| 1/8
Consumer Staples | -5.6673| -0.8| 2/8
Utilities | -1.7972| -0.2| 9/7
Communication Services | 2.2804| 0.2| 4/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -25.8700| -2.6| 82.7| 10.9
Canadian National | -21.5100| -3.5| 37.2| 13.5
Suncor Energy | -13.3800| -2.9| -26.7| 6.4
CCL Industries | 1.2140| 2.2| 87.0| 9.1
Shopify | 1.3260| 0.5| -21.0| 119.4
Kinross Gold | 1.4240| 2.6| -12.7| 42.3

================================================================
Biggest | |Index Points| Volume VS |YTD Change
Gainers | % Change | Move |20D AVG (%)| (%)
================================================================
Semafo | 4.0| 0.4040| -34.3| 49.8
Yamana Gold | 2.9| 0.8110| 16.5| 34.6
Detour Gold | 2.8| 0.6910| -21.4| 73.5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| |Index Points| 20D AVG |YTD Change
Biggest Losers | % Change | Move | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Bombardier | -10.6| -2.8710| 112.1| -21.2
Bausch Health | -10.0| -6.3930| 76.8| 3.0
Hudbay Minerals | -8.8| -0.6710| 51.4| -32.5

* The benchmark 10-year bond rose and the yield fell 0.9 basis points to 1.352 percent
US
By Randall Jensen and Sarah Ponczek
(Bloomberg) — Stocks slid and Treasuries rose after a gauge of U.S. manufacturing posted the weakest reading since the end of the last recession, fueling fears of an impending global slowdown and boosting haven assets. The S&P 500 fell the most in five weeks and pushed through a key support level after the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index slipped to the lowest since June 2009. Banks led the decline as rates moved lower, followed by industrial companies. The 10-year Treasury yield tumbled to 1.64% and the dollar weakened against major peers. Gold and the Japanese yen advanced. “We are clearly seeing a very weak backdrop for manufacturing. The concern is the contagion effect into the services economy, which is the driving force of the U.S. economy,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. “We cannot take this lightly and we think the Fed shouldn’t take it lightly either.”
The weak factory gauge, which came on the heels of similarly disappointing numbers out of Europe on Tuesday, renewed concerns about a global economic slump amid the U.S.- China trade war and sparked another round of speculation about how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Investors may get some signals from the slew of Fed speakers this week, which include Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, when the latest jobs report will also be released. Elsewhere, European shares fell the most in almost seven weeks following data that showed the region’s manufacturing sector slumped last month and inflation slowed. The euro advanced after the European Union was said to be ready to consider a time limit on the Irish Brexit backstop. Oil fell to the lowest in almost a month amid a grim outlook for global energy demand. Asian markets were subdued as Hong Kong and China were closed for holidays, while Australia’s dollar slid after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low.
Here are some key events coming up this week:
* There’s a slew of U.S. numbers this week, including the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Friday.
* Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell set to speak Friday.
* The Reserve Bank of India sets policy on Friday.

Here are the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 Index fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time.
* The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3%.
* The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 1.3%.
* The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 0.7%.
* The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%.
* The MSCI Emerging Market Index declined 0.3%.
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0929.
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2270.
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 107.68 per dollar.
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell two basis points to 1.64%.
* Germany’s 10-year yield rose one basis point to -0.57%.
* Britain’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to 0.47%.
Commodities
* Gold rose 1% to $1,487.60 an ounce.
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $53.56 a barrel.
–With assistance from Cormac Mullen, Samuel Potter and Brendan Walsh.
Have a great night.

Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann

What is history but a fable agreed upon?
         -Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com