November 3, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
Natural Culture Day, Japan.

November 3, 1956: The film, The Wizard of Oz (1939), aired on television for the first time and was seen by an estimated 45 million viewers.
November 3, 1911: The Chevrolet Motor Car Co. was founded in Detroit by Louis Chevrolet and William C. Durant. Go to article »
On this day in 1957, the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 2, which carried a dog, the first living creature to orbit Earth. The dog’s name was Laika.

A huge tunnel has opened below Niagara Falls.  Tourists can now walk out onto a platform to view Niagara Falls. Take a look at the attraction that was previously off-limits to visitors.

This is the new world’s best cheese.  After narrowing it down to some brie-lliant finalists, this beloved cheese ended up beating more than 4,400 competitors.

Metal detectorist stumbles across Viking treasure hoard in Norway:  Many people dream of finding buried treasure, but very few people actually do.  For one man in central Norway that dream became a reality just before Christmas last year, when he took his metal detector for a stroll in a field near his home and unearthed a hoard of silver fragments from the Viking Age.  Full Story: Live Science (11/2)

Photo: Celebrating the Day of the Dead, 2022

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Havana, Cuba
Dancers of the National Ballet of Cuba participate in the Alicia Alonso international ballet festival
Photograph: Ernesto Mastrascusa/EPA

Troms
ø, Norway The Northern lights appear over the city
Photograph: Rune Stoltz Bertinussen/NTB/AFP/Getty Images

Taipei, Taiwan
Portraits of dictators are displayed during the Oslo Freedom Forum, a conference series produced by the Human Rights Foundation that brings together human rights advocates, journalists, artists, and tech entrepreneurs
Photograph: Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for November 3^rd, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
🗳️ On this day in 1948, the day after Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas E. Dewey in the U.S. presidential election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped by 4%. By Nov. 10 the Dow had lost 9.4%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.2%, or 35.79 to 19,241.22 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Oct. 25.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 14.0%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest drop, falling 18.6%.
Today, 129 of 236 shares fell, while 106 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 9.3%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* So far this week, the index fell 1.2%
* The index declined 9.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 13.4% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 7.7% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 1.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.07t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 22.35% compared with 22.54% in the previous session and the average of 22.47% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -84.7400| -3.9| 25/26
Financials | -24.7858| -0.4| 9/20
Utilities | -8.0459| -0.9| 4/12
Information Technology | -5.3172| -0.5| 2/12
Real Estate | -4.6252| -1.0| 2/20
Communication Services | -1.7236| -0.2| 2/5
Consumer Staples | -0.9877| -0.1| 1/10
Health Care | 1.5291| 1.9| 4/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.5705| 0.5| 8/6
Industrials | 27.8247| 1.1| 15/12
Energy | 61.4889| 1.7| 34/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | -58.9900| -14.0| 224.4| 3.0
Barrick Gold | -19.7500| -8.3| 283.1| -25.2
Bank of Nova Scotia| -5.9950| -1.1| -32.3| -27.6
Cenovus Energy | 9.3810| 3.5| -14.5| 85.8
Suncor Energy | 17.2000| 3.9| 7.8| 53.1
Waste Connections | 21.4800| 6.8| 99.8| 10.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks sank before Friday’s jobs data amid concern that a deeper recession could be in store with the Federal Reserve expected to hold rates at a higher level for longer to tame inflation.
The S&P 500 saw its fourth straight decline, dragged down by big tech as Treasury yields climbed.
Apple Inc. tumbled over 4% and Amazon.com Inc. suffered its longest slide since 2019.
A key segment of the Treasury curve reached new extremes of inversion, touching a level not seen since the 1980s when the Fed was aggressively tightening.
Curve inversions have a track record of preceding economic downturns.
Swaps that reference future Fed meetings indicate an expected peak rate above 5.1% around mid-2023.
Estimates briefly dropped below 5% on Wednesday.
The benchmark rate currently sits in a range of 3.75% to 4%.
“Remember, ‘lower for longer’ in 2021 in terms of the interest rate environment?,” wrote Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. “Well, now we have ‘higher for longer’… as well as ‘slower but higher.’
A rise in short-term rates might take longer to play out, but they’re headed for a higher level than the markets have been thinking.”
While projections show October payroll growth moderated to 198,000, such an increase would still be higher than a monthly pace shy of 100,000 that economists reckon is neither too strong nor too weak for the economy over the longer term.
Applications for unemployment insurance hovered around historically low levels, reinforcing what Fed Chair Jerome Powell described as an “overheated” jobs market.
Markets are rightly more concerned with the ultimate level of rates rather than the pace of tightening, according to Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management — who doesn’t believe the conditions are in place for a sustained stock rally.
“The Fed, along with other major central banks, looks likely to keep tightening rates until the first quarter of 2023,” Haefele noted. “Economic growth will likely continue to slow into the start of the new year, and global financial
markets are vulnerable to stress while monetary policy continues to tighten. Such headwinds have yet to be fully reflected in earnings estimates or equity valuations.”
The pound slumped as the Bank of England told investors to rein in expectations for hikes.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that a “mild recession” is possible, but that it wouldn’t be sufficient in itself to stem soaring prices.
The comments are part of a raft of public appearances by ECB officials, as investors and analysts ponder the twin challenges of record price growth and a likely economic downturn, due largely to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In corporate news, Peloton Interactive Inc. delivered a weaker estimate for the current quarter than Wall Street was predicting, even as management declared that it was beating its own timeline for turning around the fitness company.
Moderna Inc. earnings offered a preview into the future of Covid-19 vaccine sales, and so far it doesn’t look pretty.
Qualcomm Inc., the biggest maker of smartphone processors, gave a weaker forecast than expected.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $0.9750
* The British pound fell 2% to $1.1163
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 148.23 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $20,259.51
* Ether rose 2.1% to $1,543.45
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 2.25%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points to 3.52%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $88.09 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1% to $1,633.40 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

A watch is the most essential part of a lecture.  -Willa Cather, 1873-1947.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com