November 23, 2020 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On Nov. 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated while riding in a motorcade in Dallas. Suspected gunman Lee Harvey Oswald was arrested. Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson was sworn in as the 36th president of the United States.  Go to article »

November 23,1936: Life magazine premiered.

Barack Obama took nearly four years to publish his White House memoir — longer than any other president in the past century. One factor: He wrote the book himself.

Archaeologists found the nearly 2,000-year-old remains of two people frozen in time by the volcanic eruption that buried the ancient Roman town of Pompeii. –NY Times.

Oxford’s 2020 Word of the Year is [gestures at everything].

What if plants have personalities?

Understanding the dark universe and primordial galaxy formation. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Undated handout photo issued by Rahaf Al-Mutlaq of her painting an eye using emojis

Artists Yienma (L) and Felix (R) pose with their installation titled ‘Galerie Des Cadence’ which is displayed in the gallery Halle Nord, during the 16th Mapping Festival, in Geneva, Switzerland

It is Ten (10) years since Scottish Land & Estates introduced The Wildlife Estates Scotland (WES) accreditation system to promote the best habitat and wildlife management practices across farms and Estates in Scotland.

People enjoy the scenery of rime-covered trees along the Mudanjiang River in Ning’an City, northeast China’s Heilongjiang Province

Market Closes for November 23^rd, 2020 

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1954, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high of 382.74, finally surpassing its previous high—set a quarter-century earlier on Sept. 3, 1929.  It is up +7,600% since then.

Canada
By Michael Bellusci
(Bloomberg) — More than seven months after starting a bull market rally, Canada’s stock market has finally turned positive for the year. The S&P/TSX Composite Index climbed 0.3% on Monday in intraday trade, clawing its way back into the green for 2020. Earlier this year, the Covid-19 outbreak sent the index down 37%. The Canadian benchmark rose above the 17,063.43 level on an intraday basis today as vaccine progress buoyed investor sentiment. This has been a year for the history books. As quickly as the Canadian market plunged into bear-market territory in March, it surged even more rapidly into a bull zone as governments and central banks reacted with stimulus programs. Since its March 23 bottom, the S&P/TSX Composite Index recouped about C$893 billion ($683 billion) in market value — with plenty of bumps along the way. Stock bulls have a lot to point to: promising vaccine results, the end of U.S. elections, signs of an economic recovery, better-than-expected quarterly profits and general corporate optimism that the worst of the crisis is over.
For the naysayers, fresh waves of virus cases around the world, including partial lockdowns in some major cities, means global growth could be painfully slow with international trade nowhere near where it was before Covid-19. Meanwhile, U.S. fiscal stimulus talks have stalled and getting a vaccine approved and delivered to Americans could take until spring or summer next year, at the earliest. Put it all together and there are plenty of reasons to expect a bumpy ride. Canada’s stock market, laden with value plays, stands to gain a lot from an effective vaccine delivered next year. But it could still be volatile with the potential for a split House and Senate and no U.S. fiscal package in sight. Here’s a look at what propped up Canada’s stock market and what held it back:
Technology
     Despite a small weighting on the S&P/TSX Composite, tech stocks have been the best performers this year as investors sought companies that would do better in a scarred global economy where most people continue to work from home and more shop online. Shopify Inc. has had a blistering run with its shares more than doubling as a flood of merchants focused on e-commerce during the coronavirus pandemic. That has made it the most valuable firm on the Toronto benchmark, surpassing the market stalwart Royal Bank of Canada. Supply chain software provider Kinaxis Inc. and network provider for the real estate industry Real Matters Inc. have also surged 80% and 60% respectively. At almost 10% of the Canadian benchmark, the tech sector’s impact is still small compared to the nation’s banks, miners and energy companies. So while its shares have surged this year, helping offset some losses on the benchmark, its epic rally hasn’t helped the TSX in the same manner that FAANG stocks have for the S&P 500, now up 11% so far this year.
Gold
     Worsening virus projections and fears of a widening economic slowdown propelled the price of precious metals to record highs this year. In a pandemic-struck world, awash in stimulus from central banks and governments, the attraction of a hard asset that carries no counterparty risk proved difficult to ignore. That helped the S&P/TSX Materials Index, home to more than 30 Canada-based precious metals miners, surge 15% this year, making it the second-best performing group after tech. Making up 14% of the broader Canadian benchmark, the group has even surpassed energy. It now has the second-biggest weighting in the benchmark — a first since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Stalwarts
     Financial stocks, which include banks, insurers and asset managers, make up more than 30% of the S&P/TSX Composite Index and have lagged the record-breaking comeback on the benchmark since the March-low. While the sector has reversed some of its losses amid optimism on vaccine progress, it’s still in the red this year. The Big Six banks are slated to report in a couple of weeks and strong profit growth or an improving outlook for loan losses, which would suggest a solid economic recovery, could give the equity market another lift.
By Bloomberg Automation:
     (Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.4 percent, or 75.43 to 17,094.53 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since Feb. 25. Suncor Energy Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 8.7 percent. Vermilion Energy Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.7 percent. Today, 123 of 222 shares rose, while 99 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 9.7 percent
* This year, the index was little changed, heading for the best year since 2019
* The index advanced 0.8 percent in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16 percent in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.9 percent below its 52-week high on Feb. 20, 2020 and 53 percent above its low on March 23, 2020
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2 percent in the past 5 days and rose 4.8 percent in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 on a trailing basis and 23.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3 percent on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.61t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 15.23 percent compared with 15.25 percent in the previous session and the average of 15.08 percent over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 75.1168| 4.0| 22/1
Financials | 51.0723| 1.0| 18/8
Utilities | 5.0222| 0.6| 11/5
Consumer Discretionary | 3.8913| 0.6| 7/6
Industrials | 1.9366| 0.1| 17/11
Real Estate | 1.3769| 0.2| 13/13
Health Care | 1.3643| 0.7| 6/4
Consumer Staples | -1.1531| -0.2| 6/5
Communication Services | -1.6290| -0.2| 3/4
Information Technology | -4.1682| -0.3| 5/5
Materials | -57.4076| -2.4| 15/37

US
By Claire Ballentine and Kamaron Leach
(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks climbed as investors piled into companies that will benefit most from a return to normal economic activity. Tech shares lagged behind, while gold slumped. The S&P 500 briefly extended gains on news that Joe Biden will nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to be Treasury Secretary. She recently said the recovery will be uneven and lackluster if Congress doesn’t spend more to fight unemployment and keep small businesses afloat. “The market would view Janet Yellen’s appointment as market-friendly. At the very least, she is likely to work well with Chair Powell,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.
The Nasdaq 100 was little changed, while the Russell 2000 of smaller companies jumped almost 2%. AstraZeneca Plc became the latest firm to deliver positive vaccine developments, bolstering demand for cruise-line operators and airlines. Small caps are up about 18% in November, on track for the best month ever. Vaccine successes lately have added to a risk-on mood in markets and investors have snapped up assets that could benefit from the end of lockdowns and travel restrictions even as the virus rages across the nation. Investors have also started to anticipate Congress will again deliver a spending bill to stave off the economic effects of new restrictions aimed at slowing the virus.
“In the short-term, anything is possible and from a humanitarian perspective it is awful that the people who currently need the most help are not getting it,” said Jonathan Boyar, managing director at Boyar Value Group. “But with multiple viable vaccines on the horizon, I think the market will largely look through the horrible headlines. There certainly, however, will be some fits and starts along the way.” U.S. vaccinations against Covid-19 will “hopefully” start in less than three weeks, said Moncef Slaoui, head of the government’s Operation Warp Speed, on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. An advisory panel of the Food and Drug Administration is meeting on Dec. 10 to discuss emergency use authorizations.

Here are some key events coming up:
* Minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are due Wednesday.
* U.S. jobless claims, GDP and personal spending data come Wednesday.
* U.K. expected on Wednesday to deliver the government’s spending plans for next year.
* Thursday sees a policy decision and briefing from the Bank of Korea.
* U.S. celebrates the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
* The week ends with Black Friday, the traditional start of the U.S. holiday shopping season.

These are the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time.
* The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2%.
* The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3%.
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2%.
* The euro declined 0.2% to $1.1839.
* The Japanese yen depreciated 0.6% to 104.50 per dollar.
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed three basis points to 0.85%.
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced less than one basis point to  -0.58%.
* Britain’s 10-year yield climbed two basis points to 0.318%.
Commodities
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index was little changed.
* West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.2% to $42.94 a barrel.
* Gold depreciated 1.9% to $1,836.26 an ounce.
–With assistance from Todd White and Anchalee Worrachate.

Have a great night.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Do not pray for easy lives, pray to be stronger men. – John F. Kennedy. 1917-1963

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com