November 21st, 2011 Newsletter
Dear Friends,
Tangents:
Notable: November 21st, 1783 ~ Man’s first flight in a balloon.
Just back from Vancouver and got to see the Occupy Vancouver sight in front of the Art Gallery dismantling with one of my clients who drove me back to Harbor Air after our meeting. No comment.
Gary came in from Toronto yesterday afternoon from an oncology meeting he attended the past couple of days. We went to see Gordon Lightfoot last night at the Vancouver Center.…great poet, lyricist, artist, musician….but might be time to forget the live performances we thought. However, it was the first night of his tour, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt; maybe he’ll be more into it as the tour progresses.
Before the show, we checked out the new restaurant l’Abbatoir which has been getting some positive traction in the past year. Innovative for sure; pretty good food. Worth a visit.
Market Commentary:
Canada
By Kaitlyn Kiernan
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks dropped for a fourth day, led by technology and energy companies, as U.S. lawmakers failed to agree on budget cuts and Moody’s Investors Service warned of France’s fiscal challenges.
Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s biggest oil and gas producer, lost 1.8 percent as crude oil fell to a one-week low amid European recession concerns. Teck Resources Ltd., Canada’s largest base-metals producer, dropped 1.3 percent as copper and gold fell. Research In Motion Ltd. retreated 3.8 percent after saying some customers couldn’t turn on the company’s BlackBerry Bold devices because of a glitch.
The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 107.72 points, or 0.9 percent, to 11,784.72.
“It’s ugly,” said Brendan Caldwell, chief executive officer of Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. in Toronto, which manages C$1 billion ($962 million). “The markets are suffering from uncertainty fatigue,” Caldwell said in a telephone interview. “The markets would very much like to move on away from the machinations of politicians. We invest in companies, not politicians. The businesses themselves are doing quite well, but the political backdrop is completely chaotic.”
The S&P/TSX dropped 3.1 percent last week, its third straight weekly loss, as Italian, Spanish and French bond yields increased, adding to concern the European debt crisis will continue to spread. The benchmark index of Canadian stocks extended its decline to 2.9 percent this month through Nov. 18 after advancing 5.4 percent in October to end a 7-month slump.
The index is heading for its first yearly decrease since 2008 and second in the past nine years.
The U.S. deficit-cutting congressional supercommittee will probably announce that it has failed to agree on $1.2 trillion of federal budget savings for today’s deadline, a Democratic aide said in an e-mail. France’s rising financing costs are increasing the nation’s fiscal challenges, according to a report issued by Moody’s Investors Service today.
The S&P/TSX Information Technology Index fell the most of 10 industry groups as Research In Motion slipped. The BlackBerry maker erased 3.8 percent to C$18.04 after reporting the Bold glitch.
JMP Securities LLC cut the Waterloo, Ontario-based company to “underperform” from “market perform,” saying low-priced smartphones are “increasingly threatening.” Mike Abramsky, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, lowered his price estimate on the stock to $23 from $29 because of slower sales and lower earnings projections.
Celestica Inc., which makes electronics for companies including Research In Motion, slipped 2.8 percent to C$8.25.
Raw material companies retreated after gold fell to the lowest level in three weeks as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the metal as an alternative investment.
Goldcorp Inc., the world’s second-largest producer of the metal by market value, slipped 0.8 percent to C$51.46. Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest producer, decreased 0.6 percent to C$49.87. Kinross Gold Corp., Canada’s third-largest company in the industry market value, declined 2.3 percent to C$12.87.
Teck Resources erased 1.3 percent to C$34.69 as copper fell to a four-week low. First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Canada’s second-largest publicly traded copper producer, slumped 1.7 percent to C$17.69.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., Rio Tinto Group’s partner in the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold project in Mongolia, decreased 1.5 percent to C$19.31.
The S&P/TSX Energy Index lost 1.4 percent as crude oil fell. Suncor decreased 1.8 percent to C$30.94. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the country’s second-largest energy company by market value, dropped 1.6 percent to C$36.48. Financial stocks fell along with U.S. and European banks.
Manulife Financial Corp., North America’s fourth-biggest insurer, lost 1.2 percent to C$11.20. Bank of Montreal, Canada’s fourth-biggest bank, fell 1.5 percent to C$56.18.
SXC Health Solutions Corp. rose 4.5 percent to C$56.90. The pharmacy benefits manager was raised to “outperform” from “neutral” at Cowen & Co., which cited “strong fundamentals and growth opportunities ahead.”
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., the country’s largest drugmaker, rose 0.6 percent to C$44.02. The Mississauga, Ontario-based company agreed to buy iNova Pharmaceuticals (Australia) Pty. for as much as A$700 million ($698 million), gaining the Duro-Tuss and Difflam cold remedies and broader access to markets in the Southern Hemisphere.
US
By Rita Nazareth
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks slumped, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its longest decline since September, amid concern the U.S. government will be forced to submit to $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts.
All 10 industries in the benchmark measure declined as 468 out of 500 companies retreated. Bank of America Corp. tumbled 5 percent to pace losses in financial shares. Hewlett-Packard Co. and Caterpillar Inc. dropped at least 2.9 percent. The Dow Jones Transportation Average slid 2.3 percent. Gilead Sciences Inc. plunged 9.1 percent after agreeing to buy Pharmasset Inc. for about $11 billion in cash. Pharmasset soared 85 percent.
The S&P 500 fell 1.9 percent to 1,192.98 at 4 p.m. New York time. The benchmark gauge for American equities has lost 5.2 percent in four days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 248.85 points, or 2.1 percent, to 11,547.31 today. The supercommittee created to cut the deficit said after the close of U.S. exchanges that it failed to reach a deal.
“The supercommittee was expected to pave the way to extend the stimulus that is in the system,” Barry Knapp, the New York- based head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays Plc, said in a telephone interview. If stimulus is not extended, “you get a big hit to the economy in the first quarter right at the point when the economic fallout from the European debt crisis is hitting,” he said.
The decline pushed the S&P 500 below levels representing the top of a price range that prevailed in the two months after the U.S. was stripped of its AAA credit rating by S&P on Aug. 5.
Rallies after the downgrade brought the S&P 500 to closing highs of 1,204.49 on Aug. 15, 1,218.89 on Aug. 31 and 1,216.01 on Sept. 16, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The S&P 500 may fall to 1,100 if the supercommittee fails to reach an agreement, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin. The strategist said in a note dated Nov. 18 that lawmakers’ failure to agree on at least the minimum required savings would demonstrate “the inability of elected officials to act in the long-term best interests of all Americans.”
U.S. shares joined European equities in retreating. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 3.2 percent, the most since Nov. 1. France’s rising financing costs are increasing the nation’s fiscal challenges, according to report issued by Moody’s Investors Service. Germany’s Finance Ministry said the country’s expansion is “noticeably slower” this quarter.
“The selloff in risk assets reflects concerns about the inability of policy makers to catch up with unsettling economic and financial realities, particularly in Europe and America,”
Mohamed A. El-Erian, the chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said in an e-mail. His firm runs the biggest bond fund.
Stocks slumped last week as higher government bond yields in Spain, France and Italy spurred concern the European debt crisis is intensifying outside Greece. Financial stocks in the S&P 500 lost 5.6 percent last week, the biggest drop among 10 industries, after Fitch Ratings said further contagion from Europe’s debt turmoil would be a risk for U.S. banks.
Financial, industrial and technology shares had the biggest losses in the S&P 500 among 10 groups today, slumping at least 1.9 percent. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index slid 2.4 percent on concern about economic growth. Bank of America sank 5 percent to $5.49. Caterpillar dropped 3 percent to $91.12. Hewlett- Packard fell 4 percent to $26.86.
Gilead Sciences tumbled 9.1 percent to $36.26, while Pharmasset soared 85 percent to $134.14. Gilead agreed to buy Pharmasset, betting that its experimental hepatitis C treatments will lead the next generation of therapies in a market that may reach $20 billion by 2020.
Jefferies Group Inc. rose 0.4 percent to $10.20, after losing 9.5 percent last week. The investment bank whose stock dropped in the wake of MF Global Holdings Ltd.’s bankruptcy, cut stakes in European debt again to fend off speculation about its financial strength.
Focus Media Holding Ltd. plummeted 39 percent to $15.43 after Muddy Waters LLC, the short-selling firm known for prompting Sino-Forest Corp.’s retreat, recommended betting against the digital advertising company.
Muddy Waters spurred a 74 percent drop in Sino-Forest between June and August after saying the timber owner overstated the value of its assets. Today’s report said Focus Media has fewer television screens in its ad network than it says and may have overpaid for takeovers to mask losses.
Barton Biggs, the hedge fund manager who reduced U.S. equity investments in September before the biggest monthly rally since 1991, cut bullish bets again on concern the odds of a U.S. recession have increased.
The Traxis Global Equity Macro Fund’s net long position has been lowered to less than 40 percent, and may be reduced another 15 percentage points, Biggs said during an interview on Bloomberg Television “In the Loop” with Betty Liu today.
“It’s a much more bearish environment than I anticipated,” he said. “We are going to have a decline at least back to the lows of last summer. God forbid, maybe even testing the lows of 2008 and 2009.” testing the lows of 2008 and 2009.’’
The money manager’s optimism on U.S. stocks has gyrated along with the market. He raised the Traxis Global fund’s long equity position to 65 percent after slashing it to 40 percent in September, he said in an Oct. 17 interview. Biggs then boosted the figure to 80 percent, he said two weeks later.
Have a wonderful evening everyone.
Be magnificent!
The autumn comes, a maiden fair
In slenderness and grace,
With nodding rice-stems in her hair
And lilies in her face.
In flowers of grasses she is clad;
And as she moves along,
birds greet her with their cooing glad
Like bracelets’ tinkling song.
-Kalidasa, 450-600 AD?
As ever,
Carolann
What loneliness is more lonely
than distrust?
-George Eliot, 1819-1880