November 16, 2023, Newsletter
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
November 16, 2023: National Fast-Food Day!
Cult temples and sacrificial pit unearthed at Roman camp
Archaeologists in Germany have unearthed the foundations of two temples and a shallow circular ditch at an ancient Roman camp.
Supervolcano ‘megabeds’ discovered at bottom of sea
Four huge deposits from supervolcano eruptions over the last 40,000 years have been discovered at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, pointing to catastrophic events in Europe every 10,000 to 15,000 years.
Crabs keep evolving from sea to land – and back again
True crabs evolved to migrate between marine and land environments multiple times throughout their 250-million-year-old history, new study finds.
Building blocks of life may have formed on space dust
Far from any galaxy, icy grains of dust in deep space may be able to form organic molecules, a new preprint study finds.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Angkor Wat, Cambodia
Tourists visit the temple in Siem Reap province. Prime minister Hun Manet has opened a new airport 25 miles from the Angkor temples park, the country’s main tourist destination, in a drive to boost the tourism sector
Photograph: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP/Getty Images
Durham Cathedral is lit up during a preview of Lumiere 2023, the UK’s light art biennial, held in Durham and Bishop Auckland. For four nights, the medieval city will become a nocturnal art experience hosting works made with light
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA
Birds in the landscape shortlist
Wetlands dawn by Diana Andersen. It was a magically still and misty morning at the Alcoa wetlands in Wellard, Western Australia, with a flock of pelicans and a couple of pied stilts waiting for the rising sun. I liked the changing light on the birds from left to right in relation to the rising sun
Market Closes for November 16th,2023
|Bonds||% Yield||Previous % Yield|
10 Year Bond
10 Year Bond
30 Year Bond
|WTI Crude Future||72.90||76.66|
📈 On this day in 1904, British physicist John A. Fleming invented the thermionic two-electrode valve, or diode, later known as the vacuum tube. This technology soon made the radio possible and later powered the earliest modern computers.
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 20,053.07 in Toronto, ending a 5-day gain.
The loss follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
Lithium Americas Argentina Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.1%.
Today, 128 of 227 shares fell, while 97 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
* This year, the index rose 3.4%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 2%
* The index advanced 0.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.8% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 7.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 on a trailing basis and 14.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.17t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.33% compared with 14.36% in the previous session and the average of 14.43% over the past month
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
Energy | -46.2363| -1.3| 5/35
Consumer Discretionary | -4.9726| -0.7| 1/13
Real Estate | -2.9156| -0.6| 4/17
Financials | -2.0643| 0.0| 14/14
Health Care | -1.4626| -2.6| 0/3
Communication Services | -0.4091| -0.1| 2/3
Utilities | -0.2474| 0.0| 8/7
Consumer Staples | 5.7160| 0.7| 6/4
Information Technology | 7.4382| 0.4| 6/5
Industrials | 16.8360| 0.6| 16/10
Materials | 23.5040| 1.1| 35/17
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | -11.1400| -1.6|n/a | 17.0
Suncor Energy | -9.6990| -2.3|n/a | 3.8
Enbridge | -6.1980| -0.9|n/a | -14.4
Thomson Reuters | 5.8620| 3.1|n/a | 21.8
Barrick Gold | 6.0090| 2.3|n/a | -5.9
Wheaton Precious | | | |
Metals | 6.7700| 3.5|n/a | 19.3
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasuries climbed after the latest economic figures underscored a gradual slowdown, reinforcing speculation the Federal Reserve will end its most-aggressive hiking campaign in decades.
Ten-year yields fell eight basis points to around 4.45%.
Following a rally that sent stocks near “overbought” levels, the S&P 500 was little changed. Walmart Inc. slumped amid a cautious tone on the outlook for consumers, while Macy’s Inc. rose on a profit beat.
Cisco Systems Inc. sank after a bearish forecast.
In late trading, Applied Materials Inc. slid on a news report it faces a US criminal probe for violating export restrictions to China.
Oil tumbled below $73.
Wall Street kept a close eye on another batch of economic data on Thursday, with continuing applications for US unemployment benefits rising to the highest in almost two years.
Factory production fell by more than expected, largely reflecting a strike-related pullback in activity at automakers and parts suppliers. Meantime, homebuilder sentiment hit the lowest in 2023.
“The lags in monetary policy are catching up with the economy now — from input costs to industrial production to labor,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group. “Now, the fight shifts from inflation to preserving economic growth and
averting recession. Rate cuts are closer than people think.”
Fed Governor Lisa Cook noted she is attuned to the risk of an unnecessarily sharp economic slump, pointing to strain in some sectors from tighter financial conditions.
Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester told CNBC she hasn’t decided whether another hike is still needed, adding officials have time to see how the economy is evolving.
While it’s still too early for the Fed to declare victory over inflation — and rate cuts are still far off — figures like the recent ones will tamp down lingering concerns about an additional hike, according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“The question now is whether this type of ‘Fed-friendly data’ will continue to provide bullish momentum for the stock market,” he noted.
Equities wavered after a rally from “oversold” levels that was driven by bets the central bank is done with rate hikes — and turbocharged by short covering. The S&P 500 is still on pace for its best month in over a year.
“The risk/reward is not as favorable after the move up. Still, the weight of the evidence suggests modest upside in this rally remains, albeit after an expected near-term pause,” said Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services.
The market is still subject to some volatility going forward and is certainly data-dependent, said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at EverBank.
“There’s a back-and-forth with the markets and the Fed, and that’s going to lead to more volatility as we go forward — through the end of the year and actually into next year,” he added.
The recent stock market rally was a result of investors realizing the Fed is likely finished with its rate-hiking campaign, according to James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research.
“Further short covering, along with institutional and retail investors being underweight stocks, will likely continue to drive the market higher into year-end,” he said.
A murky economic outlook and alluring returns on cash kept investors out of stocks this year despite their defiant run.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. thinks the wariness will persist into 2024.
“We expect positive returns to equities, but a 5% return risk-free in cash remains a competitive alternative,” David Kostin, the bank’s chief US equity strategist, said. “In the current interest rate environment, the 3-month Treasury bill yields 5.5%, similar to the earnings yield on the S&P 500 index.”
Global stocks will outperform bonds in 2024 as they navigate a “soft-ish” economic landing, Barclays Plc strategists said, becoming the latest to strike an optimistic tone on the asset class.
The team led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha turned overweight on global equities over core fixed income and said they expect “mid- to high single-digit returns” in both the US and Europe next year.
That forecast stands even as bond yields stay elevated and earnings expectations for the S&P 500 “seem too optimistic to us,” they wrote.
Meantime, money-market fund assets rose to an all-time high for the second-straight week as interest rates north of 5% and volatility in fixed-income markets drove investors to havens.
Elsewhere, oil plummeted as trend-following trades accelerated losses that were kicked off by swelling inventories and the failure of key technical support levels.
* Apple Inc. has fallen further behind in its multibillion- dollar effort to make a modem chip for the iPhone, stymied by the complexity of replacing an intricate Qualcomm Inc. component.
* Amazon.com Inc. customers will be able to buy Hyundai Motor Co. vehicles on the e-commerce giant’s website starting next year.
* Gap Inc. reported third-quarter profit that exceeded forecasts and a smaller-than-expected drop in comparable sales.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. will close most of its stores and pharmacies on Thanksgiving Day, giving thousands of workers an unexpected day off amid walkouts and layoffs.
* Walt Disney Co., battling activist investors and struggling to adapt to changes in consumer viewing habits, plans to address employees in a companywide town hall after Thanksgiving.
* Intel Corp. was upgraded to buy at Mizuho Securities, which said the chipmaker was lining up significant new server products in the next six months.
* Bath & Body Works Inc. anticipates a continuation of softer topline trends in the fourth quarter.
* General Motors Co. employees voted to ratify the labor agreement reached with the United Auto Workers, ending a costly and drawn-out process that included a six-week strike.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has called off a spinoff of its giant cloud business after the US tightened curbs on advanced chips for China.
* SpaceX is delaying the long-awaited second launch of its massive Starship rocket by one day to Saturday, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said.
Key events this week:
* US housing starts, Friday
* US Congress faces a midnight deadline to pass a federal spending measure, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.1%
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0847
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2409
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 150.74 per dollar
* Bitcoin fell 4.5% to $35,943.5
* Ether fell 4.5% to $1,956.01
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.15%
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.9% to $72.90 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.1% to $1,981.17 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.
Have a wonderful day everyone.
“Change is the end result of all true learning.”– Leo Buscaglia
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
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Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
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