March 7, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

The Poem: The Day the War Ended
-by Randall Swingler

On the day the war ended
The sun laced through the avenues with lime-tree scent
The silver birches danced on the sidewalk
And the girls came out like tulips in their colours:
Only the soldiers were caught, like sleepwalkers
Wakened unaware, naked there in the street.
Fatuous in flowers, their tanks, tamed elephants,
Wallowed among the crowds in the square.
There is a moment when contradictions cross,
A split of a moment when history twirls on one toe
Like a ballerina, and all men are really equal
And happiness could be impartial for once –
Only the soldier, snatched by the sudden stop
In his world’s turning, whirled like a meteor
Through a phoenix night of stars, is falling, falling
And as his trajectory bows and earth begins
To pull again, his hollow ears are moaning
With a wild tone of sorrow and the loss, the loss…

-Gradisca, May, 1945.

March 7, 1912: Oreo sandwich cookies were first introduced by the National Biscuit Co., which later became Nabisco.  Go to article » 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Members of carnival marching bands take part in the Morgestraich parade
CREDIT: Georgios Kefalas/EPA

Horridus, the world’s most complete triceratops fossil, is displayed at Melbourne Museum for the exhibition Triceratops: Fate of the Dinosaurs
CREDIT: Joel Carrett/AAP

The northern lights and the Milky Way appear over the glacial lagoon on the border of Vatnajökull national park in south-east Iceland
CREDIT:  Owen Humphreys/PA

Market Closes for March 7^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1930, President Herbert Hoover stated firmly that “All the evidence indicates that the worst effects of the Crash upon unemployment will have passed during the next sixty days.” He was wrong by a few years.
Canada
By Stefanie Marotta
(Bloomberg) — Canadian equities edged lower, weighed down by information technology and consumer discretionary stocks, as global markets slumped amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 21,304.40 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.7%. 
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 7 of 11 sectors lost; 133 of 239 shares fell, while 106 rose.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 0.4%
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 7.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.3% below its 52-week high on Nov. 16, 2021 and 18.4% above its low on March 5, 2021
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 0.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 14.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.41t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.88% compared with 12.81% in the previous session and the average of 13.59% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Financials | -110.0401| -1.6| 4/24
* Information Technology| -41.5805| -3.0| 3/13
* Industrials | -23.8320| -0.9| 10/20
* Consumer Discretionary| -22.6055| -3.3| 1/13
* Real Estate | -7.9272| -1.3| 4/19
* Consumer Staples | -4.4441| -0.6| 7/4
* Health Care | -3.7187| -2.8| 1/7
* Communication Services| 4.3460| 0.4| 5/2
* Utilities | 12.8428| 1.3| 14/2
* Materials | 44.2287| 1.5| 29/25
* Energy | 54.6938| 1.6| 29/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Shopify | -35.8800| -6.0| -9.7| -58.7
* Royal Bank of Canada | -19.0700| -1.4| 55.9| 1.5
* Bank of Montreal | -17.3900| -2.7| 12.0| 4.5
* Barrick Gold | 12.6900| 3.4| 10.2| 32.4
* Suncor Energy | 20.3700| 5.1| 67.6| 33.0
* Nutrien | 25.1200| 5.3| 129.7| 33.9

US
By Stephen Kirkland and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — The turmoil on global financial markets intensified Monday, with U.S. stocks plunging the most in 17 months and commodity prices relentlessly powering higher as the fallout from war in Ukraine threatened the global economy.
The S&P 500 sank almost 3% for its worst day since October 2020, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 3.7% and the Nasdaq Composite closed in bear market territory.
Nickel surged 90% to a record on worry over potential shortages, oil settled at the highest in a decade and wheat approached records after a 7% jump. Earlier, the Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany’s DAX index also
closed in bear markets.
The spread between two-year and 10-year Treasuries briefly dropped below 20 basis points, a level not seen since March 2020 and a bearish sign for the economy.
Russia’s war on Ukraine and the sanctions from U.S. and European allies on Russian assets have sent a jolt through financial markets that were already unsteady after two years of the pandemic and the threat of central banks pulling back on stimulus.
Investors have grown leery of owning riskier assets as surging commodity prices exacerbate inflationary pressures that could force policy makers to tamp down growth.
“The longer oil prices and inflation remain elevated – and thereby threaten an early demise of this economic expansion and bull market — the more investors will trim their exposure to equities,” wrote Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “Investor uncertainty should elevate the angst.”
Markets emerged from the weekend on edge after reports that the Biden administration is considering whether to ban the import of Russian oil and energy products, a move that could add to economic pressure as more companies pull out of the country in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
European Union governments were divided over whether to join the U.S.
The U.S. bond market’s 10-year inflation forecast jumped toa record 2.785%, while the yield on the benchmark Treasury bond rose 5 basis points at 1.78%.
A gauge of the dollar rose for a third day, trading at the highest since 2020.
Fresh talks Monday between Ukrainian and Russian officials made only limited progress on negotiating a cease-fire, the government in Kyiv said.
There was no immediate statement from the Russian negotiators.
With President Vladimir Putin saying Kyiv must agree to his demands if fighting is to end, the discussions face severe challenges.
Putin signed a decree allowing the government and companies to pay foreign creditors in rubles, seeking to stave off defaults while capital controls remain in place.
Still, some holders of a $1.3 billion Gazprom PJSC bond due Monday said they received payment in dollars.
More businesses pulled back on their operations in Russia, including streaming giant Netflix Inc. and social-media service TikTok, which is owned by China-based ByteDance Ltd.
Meanwhile, China warned the U.S. against trying to build what it called a Pacific version of NATO, while declaring that security disputes over Taiwan and Ukraine were “not comparable at all.”
The global economy was already struggling with high inflation due to the pandemic.
The Federal Reserve and other key central banks now face the tricky task of tightening monetary policy to contain the cost of living without upending economic expansion or roiling risky assets.
“There’s no easy map for navigating market volatility,” said Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen.
“Volatility is normal late in economic cycles, and it is needed to some degree to generate positive returns in any environment.  Investors, however, are concerned that this latest market disruption could hasten the end of the cycle.”
Comments
* “The most obvious interpretation of the Russia/Ukraine situation is that extended disruptions to global commodity markets will push inflation higher for longer while economic growth slows as global trade and supply chains remain constrained. Such conditions could lead to stagflation,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
* “The moves are definitely a reflection of sentiment, which is deteriorating quickly,” Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, said in a phone interview. “But I would say it’s more than just sentiment. We’re looking at potentially meaningfully higher inflation in the coming months and potentially a much slower growth because of it.”
Here are some key events this week:
* Apple new product event, Tuesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* China aggregate financing, PPI, CPI, money supply, new yuan loans, Wednesday
* Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe speaks, Wednesday and Friday
* European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde briefing after policy meeting, Thursday
* U.S. CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 2.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0871
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.3110
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 115.26 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 1.78%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to -0.01%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 1.30%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.7% to $119.99 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1.7% to $2,000.30 an ounce
–With assistance from Andreea Papuc, Abigail Moses, Peyton Forte, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Everything you’ve ever wanted is on the other side of fear. –George Addair, 1823-1899.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com