March 19, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Swallows return to San Juan Capistrano, yearly since 1776.
March 19, 1895: The Lumière brothers record their first footage, with Sortie des Usines Lumière á Lyon, showing workers leaving their factory in Lyon, marking the birth of cinema.

March 19, 1962: Bob Dylan’s self-titled debut album was released by Columbia Records. Go to article.

Wyatt Earp, gunslinger, lawman, b. 1848.
William Jennings Bryant, orator, politician, b. 1860.
Glenn Close, actress, b. 1947.

‘Mystery population’ of human ancestors gave us 20% of our genes and may have boosted our brain function
A novel genetic model suggests that the ancestors of modern humans came from two distinct populations that split and reconnected during our evolutionary history. Read More.

‘We don’t have a climate crisis — we are the crisis’: Environmentalist Paul Hawken on why honoring life is the best thing we can do against climate change
Environmentalist and author Paul Hawken speaks to Live Science about the worldview that has led to the mindless exploitation of the planet — and how we can shift perspectives for a better future. Read More

2,200-year-old shackles discovered at ancient Egyptian gold mine
The discovery of two sets of iron ankle shackles at an ancient Egyptian gold mine reveals forced labor. Read More.

Alaskan volcano Mount Spurr showing activity that will ‘most likely end in an explosive eruption,’ scientist says
Mount Spurr near Anchorage has been showing signs of unrest for a year. Now scientists think it’s creeping closer to an eruption. Read More.

Vernal equinox: How to see spring begin, just by looking at the stars
You can tell spring has officially begun in the Northern Hemisphere just by looking at the stars. Here’s how to easily spot the Spring Triangle without a telescope. Read More.

Exciting start to March Madness
Sophomore guard Amarr Knox made a last-second layup that helped Alabama State beat Saint Francis 70-68 in the First Four of the men’s basketball tournament. It was the Hornets first-ever NCAA tournament victory.

Stars steam up the screen in new flick
Oscar-winning actress Gwyneth Paltrow spilled the tea about her upcoming movie, “Marty Supreme,” in which she and co-star Timothée Chalamet get pretty hot and heavy on screen. “We have a lot of sex in this movie. There’s a lot — a lot,” she said.

Iron Maiden’s plane cut into pieces
Fans can soon own a piece of the heavy metal band’s Boeing 747-400 tour plane — known as “Ed Force One” — which has been dismantled and transformed into limited edition collectable tags.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Photography of the year award: Polar Bear Amid Fireweed Blooms by Christopher Paetkau
Photograph: Christopher Paetkau

Natural landscape finalist: Oryx Up the Dune on a Foggy Day by Thomas Vijayan
Photograph: Thomas Vijayan

​​​​​​​A high-tension power line on a hill overlooking Lake Kivu in the Karongi district, Rwanda
Market Closes for March 19^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Bank on the trends and don’t worry about the tremors. –J. Paul Getty, 1892-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.5% at 25,069.21 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.6% on Aug. 8 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 186 of 220 shares rose, while 32 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 8.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain once
* This quarter, the index rose 1.4%
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9.4% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.1% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 16.8% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.6% in the past 5 days and fell 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.98t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.07% compared with 14.80% in the previous session and the average of 13.00% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 111.0857| 4.8| 10/0
Financials | 93.6550| 1.2| 24/1
Energy | 64.0025| 1.5| 40/3
Consumer Staples | 31.0123| 3.4| 10/0
Materials | 29.7002| 0.9| 40/9
Industrials | 27.1036| 0.9| 24/4
Utilities | 6.1070| 0.6| 13/1
Consumer Discretionary | 3.5175| 0.4| 7/4
Real Estate | 3.3090| 0.7| 15/4
Health Care | -0.2847| -0.4| 2/2
Communication Services | -6.0550| -1.0| 1/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 94.6400| 8.3| 12.6| -4.9
Brookfield Corp | 29.1600| 3.9| 11.1| -6.2
RBC | 27.5800| 1.7| -23.2| -5.6
Thomson Reuters | -1.4950| -0.6| -43.1| 6.1
Boyd Group Services| -1.5010| -4.4| 147.3| 0.0
BCE | -3.1340| -1.4| -18.5| 0.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed and bond yields slipped after Jerome Powell calmed tariff-obsessed investors, signaling the Federal Reserve saw no need for drastic action in the face of Donald Trump’s trade war and its impact on inflation.
After central bankers held monetary policy steady, as expected, Powell was measured in his assessment of how the president’s actions might shape the economy, citing the potential for the impact of tariffs on consumer prices to be “transitory.”
The jump in stocks, the biggest for any Fed day since July, follows a bruising four-week stretch in which the S&P 500 slid into a correction.
Treasuries saw an abrupt reversal, with two-year yields sinking below 4%.
“Powell came in and gave a pretty dovish performance in the sense of, ‘We got this, we’re in a good place, we can afford to wait, we’ll see how it goes, we’re gonna get the job done’,” said Bill Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, on
Bloomberg Television.
“He was pretty reassuring to people that this was all quite manageable.”
Fed officials held their benchmark interest rate steady for a second straight meeting, caught between mounting concerns that the economy is slowing and inflation could remain stubbornly high.
The Fed also said that, beginning in April, it will lower the monthly cap on the amount of Treasuries on its balance sheet that it allows to mature without being reinvested, to $5 billion from $25 billion.
“The Fed indirectly cut rates today by taking action to reduce the pace of runoff of its Treasury holdings,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“This paves the way for the Fed to eliminate runoff by summer, and, with any luck, inflation data will be in place where reducing the Federal Funds rate will be the obvious choice.”
The S&P 500 rose 1.1%.
The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.25%.
The dollar pared its advance to 0.2%.
Stocks rallied despite changes to Fed forecasts that could be viewed as bearish for stock, among them a tamping down of growth expectations in 2025 and a higher estimate of inflation.
That’s because the correction in equities already accounted for a significantly worse economic backdrop than existed when the Fed last met, according to Amanda Lynam, the head of macro credit research at BlackRock Financial Management.
“A lot of that was baked in,” Lynam said on Bloomberg Television.
“We’ve had such a bruising few weeks in the equity market. Most forecasters have reflected lower growth and higher inflation, and that’s part of what’s driving us here.”

Wall Street’s Reaction to Fed:
* Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge: Bottom Line: the Fed decision was net positive given the balance sheet-runoff change and Powell’s view that tariffs will have only a “transitory” effect on inflation.
* Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute: The equity markets focused on the Fed’s decision to lower their growth forecast, keep 50 basis points of cuts, and wind down quantitative tightening (QT), all of which were viewed by markets as supportive.
We believe the Fed’s vigilance towards an economic slowdown is synchronous with our constructive equity outlook and we would encourage investors to add exposure.
* Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management:
While the outcome of this meeting was broadly in line with market participant expectations, it clearly shows the conundrum the Fed has in balancing growth and inflation expectations. On the other hand, the Fed offered some consolation with plans to begin slowing the run-off of the balance sheet.
* Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers: Although it might seem like a non-event since the rate path appears unchanged, the evolution of these forecasts is probably more favorable to bonds than to equities. The market reaction shows that bonds are benefiting from the news of the Fed combating its primary adversary—inflation—while tweaking its QT program. This might come however at the expense of lower growth as short rates remain unchanged in the face of inflation, which could weigh on profits. For now, the equity market does not perceive it this way, but should the Fed continue to exert pressure on the economy, earnings could find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place.
* Whitney Watson at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: As expected, the Fed adopted a cautious tone at this month’s meeting, remaining on hold as it waits for clarity on the growth outlook and changes to trade policy. Revisions to FOMC members’ projections had a somewhat “stagflationary” feel with forecasts for growth and inflation moving in opposite directions. For the time being, the Fed is in wait and see mode, as it monitors whether the recent growth slowdown develops into something more serious.
* Dan Siluk at Janus Henderson:
The Federal Reserve’s latest update came as a surprise, striking a slightly less hawkish tone than many on Wall Street anticipated. Amid persistent inflation and mounting economic uncertainties, the decision to maintain current interest rates while subtly adjusting its approach to securities holdings signals a cautious yet flexible stance. It conveys a clear message to the markets: despite the challenges, the Fed currently lacks the compelling data needed to adjust policy settings.
In the initial market response, the downward revision to growth forecasts and the upward revision to unemployment rates have seemingly overshadowed the upward adjustment in inflation expectations. This shift underscores a recent change in market focus, with greater emphasis now placed on the risks of weaker growth outcomes, rather than the inflationary concerns that dominated discourse in recent years.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0898
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2998
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 148.88 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $85,489.51
* Ether rose 6.6% to $2,031.92
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.80%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $67.23 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,047.67 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Isabelle Lee, Sujata Rao, Levin Stamm, Margaryta Kirakosian, Winnie Hsu and John Viljoen.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
In the right light, at the right time, everything is extraordinary. –Aaron Rose, b.1969.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com