March 15, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: THE IDES OF MARCH.
Julius Caesar, d. 44 BC.
1917: Czar Nicholas II of Russia abdicates his throne.

March 15, 1985: The first Internet domain name, symbolics.com, was registered by the Symbolics Computer Corp. of Massachusetts.  Read article

March 15, 2019: More than 1.5 million students participate in climate change protests around the world as part of Fridays for Future, a movement started by Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg.

‘Unstable’ moons may be obliterating alien life across the universe: The moon crashing into Earth may sound like an unrealistic doomsday scenario or the stuff of sci-fi disasters. But for some planets in other star systems, such catastrophic collisions may be common.
New research uses computer simulations to show that collisions between exoplanets and their moons (called exomoons) may actually be a regular occurrence, which could be disastrous for any budding alien life on those planets.
Full Story: Live Science (3/15)

‘Very, very rare’ gold and silver medieval treasure unearthed in the Netherlands: A metal detectorist in the Netherlands has discovered dazzling gold and silver treasures that were buried in a medieval swamp 800 years ago, possibly during wartime.
The hoard includes four golden ear pendants, two strips of gold leaf and 39 silver coins. Full Story: Live Science (3/14)

Technology behind ChatGPT is about to get even more powerful.  The artificial intelligence tool that stunned the tech industry has an advanced version on the way. Check out some of its new capabilities.

They bought an ‘ancient’ Italian home for around $9,000. There were many surprises in store.  Home renovations often involve unforeseen costs and hidden surprises… especially if you decide to fix up a 14th-century apartment.

Webb telescope spots a star on the brink of exploding.  View the rare and tumultuous sight 15,000 light-years away from Earth.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Frankfurt, Germany
People walk though a park as snow falls
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Florida, US
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket for Nasa on a resupply mission to the International Space Station launches from pad 39-A at the Kennedy Space Center as seen from Lori Wilson park in Cocoa Beach
Photograph: Malcolm Denemark/AP

​​​​​​​Zhejiang province, China.
Cherry blossoms bursting into bloom in Hangzhou city, Zhejiang province, China.
Photograph: Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for March 15^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1999, less than three months after breaking the 1,200 barrier, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closed above 1,300 for the first time, finishing the day at 1,307.26.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.6% at 19,378.84 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest loss since Nov. 9 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 188 of 236 shares fell, while 44 rose.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.7%.
Africa Oil Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.7%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 13 times. The next day, it declined 10 times for an average 0.7% and advanced three times for an average 1.4%
* This quarter, the index was little changed
* The index declined 8.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9.4% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 4.8% in the past 5 days and fell 6.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 on a trailing basis and 12.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.15t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.93% compared with 10.06% in the previous session and the average of 8.49% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -161.3457| -4.8| 0/39
Financials | -113.4967| -1.9| 1/28
Materials | -35.8333| -1.5| 15/34
Information Technology| -19.6840| -1.5| 2/11
Real Estate | -8.7211| -1.7| 1/20
Consumer Staples | -3.9404| -0.5| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary| -3.4772| -0.5| 3/12
Health Care | -1.4449| -2.0| 0/7
Utilities | 1.5167| 0.2| 4/12
Communication Services| 2.1867| 0.2| 4/2
Industrials | 23.2221| 0.9| 4/22
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Enbridge | -26.8800| -3.7| -22.1| -4.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -26.4900| -4.7| 85.9| -7.2
Suncor Energy | -26.1100| -6.5| 1.7| -6.2
Fortis | 4.4680| 2.4| 7.3| 4.5
Barrick Gold | 8.7950| 3.1| 18.8| 3.6
Canadian Pacific | 40.5100| 6.3| 193.6| 5.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Volatility gripped financial markets as fresh turmoil at Credit Suisse Group AG days after the collapse of some American regional banks spurred a frantic rush for shelter, evoking memories of the 2008 global financial crisis and bolstering speculation that major central banks will have to curb their hawkishness to prevent a harsher economic landing.
Equities trimmed a slide that at one point topped 2% for the S&P 500 as Switzerland’s central bank and financial regulator said Credit Suisse will receive a liquidity backstop if needed, in an effort to arrest the slump in confidence around the troubled lender.
A gauge of US financial heavyweights like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. also pared losses, but still sank to the lowest level since November 2020.
First Republic Bank led a rout in US regional peers after being cut to junk by two major credit firms.
Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge touched its highest level since October after being relatively subdued for the most part this year.
As investors dashed to the safest corners of the market, gold reversed an earlier slide and the dollar rallied against all of its developed-market peers except the Japanese yen.
Bond yields plunged globally as mounting financial-stability concerns prompted traders to abandon bets on additional rate hikes and begin pricing in cuts by the Federal Reserve.
They priced in a drop of more than 100 basis points in the US policy rate by year-end and downgraded the odds of additional tightening by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
Banks that trade with Credit Suisse rushed to safeguard their exposure with the lender on Wednesday, snapping up contracts that will compensate them if the crisis rocking the Zurich-based firm deepens.
So intense was the demand for the derivatives, known as credit-default swaps, that they spiked to levels that signal the lender is in deep financial distress — something unseen at a major global bank since at least the
throes of the financial crisis.
The renewed bout of banking turbulence spurred some worrisome remarks from prominent Wall Street voices.
As Credit Suisse nosedived, economist Nouriel Roubini — who’s known as “Dr. Doom” — said the troubled lender might be “too big to be saved.”
BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink noted that the banking crisis could worsen, worrying aloud about cracks in the financial system that formed during more than a decade of easy money and low interest rates.
Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio expects problems to start mounting in the fallout from contractions in debt and credit markets, saying the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank was just a “canary in the coal mine.”
“Are the dominoes starting to fall?” Fink, chairman of the world’s largest asset manager, said in a letter on Wednesday.  “It’s too early to know how widespread the damage is.”
With the banking turmoil rippling through financial markets, Bob Michele, the chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management, warned of an economic hard landing.
He now expects the Fed to pause rate hikes next week, saying that a recession is “inevitable” and that the best investment strategy right now is to stick to high quality bonds.
Michele reckoned the whole Treasury yield curve will come down to as low as 3% by August, but he stopped short of predicting the end of a hiking cycle.
The 10-year rate is currently near 3.5%.
Now that’s not to say everyone is buying the idea of a “financial crisis 2.0” at this stage.
Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley’s wealth management division stopped short of buying into the latest mega-bear-case on equities — namely that the failure of three American banks would be a prelude to a crisis such as the one that laid global economies low in 2008.
She says the collapse of a few regional lenders was mostly driven by poor risk management at a time when the Fed is aggressively tightening monetary policy to slow the economy.
While more banks are likely to fall, Shalett considers the threat to the broad financial industry and economy as contained.
“Remember, in the great financial crisis, there was a lot of this that was about cross-counterparty credit risk,” she told Bloomberg Television. “This is less about immediate contagion.”
No matter how bullish or bearish traders are, there seems to be consensus on at least one thing: volatility should continue dominating the financial world for now amid so many uncertainties.
“The emotions of investors remain high, and shrinking liquidity is pouring gasoline on volatility in the equity and bond market,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “The market remains susceptible to continued pressure until confidence in the system returns.”
Key events this week:
* Eurozone rate decision, Thursday
* US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Janet Yellen appears before the Senate Finance Committee, Thursday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, industrial production, Conference Board leading index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.9%
* The euro fell 1.4% to $1.0580
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.2060
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 133.21 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $24,406.63
* Ether fell 3.1% to $1,651.65
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 22 basis points to 3.47%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 29 basis points to 2.13%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 17 basis points to 3.32%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.5% to $68.09 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,921.40 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You’re braver than you believe, stronger than you seem, and smarter than you think. –A.A. Milne, 1882-1956.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com