March 13, 2025 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

Possible lunar eclipse viewing tonight. -from today’s Seattle Times.

March 13, 1781: The planet Uranus was discovered by Sir William Herschel. Go to article.
March 13, 1887: Earmuffs patented.

Abigail Hubbard, created 1rst White House Library, b. 1798.
L. Ron Hubbard, scientologist, b. 1911.

March 13, 1986: Microsoft offers its first shares to the public in 1986, with share prices rising from $26 to $29 before closing at $27.25. Microsoft is founded in 1975 by Seattle natives and former Lakeside School classmates Bill Gates and Paul Allen. First based in Albuquerque, N.M., they move to the Bellevue area in 1979 and later establish a Redmond campus. (Paul Allen, 65, dies in October 2018.)

En Vogue singer says she’s been living in her car for 3 years  
Dawn Robinson said she didn’t reveal her living situation to seek pity. Instead, she hopes her story of resilience will inspire others. 

Power suits, not PJs  
Designers were all about “office glam” at this year’s Paris Fashion Week, as more people shed their yoga pants for proper work attire. Stella McCartney’s show even took place in an office setting complete with mugs and stationery.  

2,200-year-old grave in China contains ‘Red Princess of the Silk Road’ whose teeth were painted with a toxic substance
Archaeologists in China have discovered a unique burial of a woman whose teeth had been painted with cinnabar, with a toxic red substance that contains mercury. Read More.

A giant extraterrestrial ‘wave’ hit Earth 14 million years ago — and may have dramatically altered our planet’s climate
Our solar system’s journey around the center of the Milky Way takes it through varying galactic environments, and one may have had a lasting impact on Earth’s climate, according to a new study. Read More

Liftoff! NASA launches SPHEREx telescope — an infrared observatory that will help JWST solve the mysteries of the universe
NASA’s newly-launched SPHEREx space telescope will offer a complementary “panoramic” view to the JWST’s high resolution infrared snapshots, enabling astronomers to study some of the universe’s biggest mysteries. Read More.

340 million-year-old ‘nail tooth’ shark found deep inside Mammoth Cave in Kentucky
Scientists have found ancient nail tooth shark fossils deep inside Mammoth Cave in Kentucky, revealing new information about a mysterious group of extinct predators. Read More.

Quantum-inspired storage can store 100s of terabytes of data on a tiny crystal — with plans to make them into much larger discs
Scientists have found a way to store hundreds of terabytes of data onto a tiny crystal, with plans to scale this up to a disc-sized device that can be compatible with modern computing. Read More
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Travel: Ask a Shaman by Matjaž Šimic (Slovenia)
A group of shamans in La Paz, Bolivia, shot against the brightly painted local architecture.
Shamans play a major role in Indigenous Bolivian culture
Object: Octopuses in the Sky by Sussi Charlotte Alminde (Denmark)
Elaborate handmade kites at the international kite fliers meeting on the Danish island of Fanø. It is one of the world’s largest kite-flying events
Motion: Tbourida La Chute by Olivier Unia (France)
Many photographs taken during a traditional Moroccan tbourida, an equestrian performance, depict the riders firing their rifles. Here, Unia wanted to show how dangerous it can be when a rider is thrown from their mount
Market Closes for March 13^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim. – Keneth Chang, NY Times journalist.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.9% at 24,203.23 in Toronto. The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Oct. 31 after the previous session’s increase of 0.7%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.9%. Vermilion Energy Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.3%.
Today, 143 of 220 shares fell, while 74 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index fell 2.1%, heading for the biggest decline since the third quarter of 2023
* So far this week, the index fell 2.2%
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 6.3% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.5% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 12.7% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.5% in the past 5 days and fell 5.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.93t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.22% compared with 14.76% in the previous session and the average of 12.31% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -115.8114| -1.5| 3/22
Information Technology| -99.6623| -4.2| 0/10
Industrials | -28.8293| -0.9| 5/23
Energy | -18.0965| -0.4| 9/33
Consumer Staples | -13.5850| -1.5| 1/9
Consumer Discretionary| -12.8266| -1.6| 0/11
Real Estate | -5.2570| -1.1| 2/17
Utilities | -1.5830| -0.2| 7/8
Health Care | -0.7556| -1.1| 1/3
Communication Services| 0.1783| 0.0| 2/2
Materials | 76.1071| 2.4| 44/5

================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -69.0500| -5.9| 18.8| -14.6
RBC | -29.2700| -1.8| -17.6| -9.4
Brookfield Corp | -21.3200| -2.9| -2.2| -15.1
Wheaton Precious Metals | 8.3340| 2.6| -10.8| 29.8
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 10.5800| 2.1| -8.6| 31.8
First Quantum Minerals | 12.1300| 14.4| 212.8| 9.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Volatility surged anew across US asset classes Thursday, extending a retreat from risk that has lopped $5 trillion from the S&P 500 and shows signs of seeping into high-yield bonds. New salvos in President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive spurred another race for havens in the Treasury market, with concerns mounting over the goals and impact of his trade war.
The benchmark gauge for US equities — perched at a record as recently as Feb. 19 — slid to a six-month low. This year’s selloff in the market’s largest companies deepened, amplifying the moves. And speculative corners on Wall Street from unprofitable tech to the most-shorted shares got crushed. An $8 billion exchange-traded fund tracking junk bonds saw one of its biggest losses in 2025, bucking the rise in Treasuries.
In another sign of a trade-war escalation, Trump threatened to enact a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages. Later Thursday, Trump said he would not repeal tariffs on steel and aluminum that took effect this week, nor back off plans for sweeping reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners set to start as soon as April 2.
“In only a few weeks, the broader market has gone from record highs to correction territory,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial. “Tariff uncertainty has captured most of the blame for the selling pressure and is exacerbating economic growth concerns.”
Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discounted risks of a US recession, and played down the current selloff in equities, advising investors against overreacting to President Trump’s aggressive trade tactics.
“We came in with the market being fully priced, so I think a 5% to 10% correction on the S&P or the Nasdaq actually makes sense,” Mnuchin said in an interview with Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin Thursday.
The S&P 500 fell 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.3%. A gauge of tech mega caps lost 2.5%. Adobe Inc. sank on a disappointing outlook, while Intel Corp. surged after naming an industry veteran as its next chief.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell five basis points to 4.26%. A $22 billion US sale of 30-year bonds was weak. The dollar rose 0.1%. US Shutdown Odds Increase as Democrats Dig In Against GOP Bill
“After the election, we framed the likely impact of economic policies from Donald Trump’s second presidential administration as a mix of vegetables and dessert,” said Libby Cantrill and Allison Boxer at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“Some policies could leave a bitter taste for the economy and markets – i.e., the vegetables – while others would support growth, the so-called dessert.”
“The net economic impact of the Trump administration’s second term will likely depend on the sequencing, scope, and mix of all of these policies, with risks to both the upside and downside,” they added.
Trump used markets as a litmus test for the success of his first administration, and relished in the gains posted after his victory in November.
But the stark shift from economic optimism is creating an unsettling reality for traders trying to figure out where America’s markets go from here. One major question: At a time when it’s easier than ever for people to see fluctuations in their day-to-day net worth, can a stock rout take the US economy down with it?
“Clearly this is going to be a much more volatile year and it remains to be seen if all of the revolutionary changes to the economy and trans-Atlantic alliances will lead to a recession or if it will lead to higher growth rates in the future,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management. “In the meantime, a more cautious and risk-off posture is warranted.” “There are immediate and looming questions about how much more pain the equity market might endure,” said Michael Purves at Tallbacken Capital Advisors. “Do we buy this dip (down 10% from the peak)? Or do we sell into relief rallies such as we had yesterday?”
In a note, he highlights that there are various “technical bearish signals” that are converging in the same manner as they did in the first quarter of 2022.
“These are just technical signals, and the market risks and macro backdrop today are very different from what they were in 2022,” he said. “However, in a market environment that lacks clarity, these technical signals take on a greater prominence.”
As a reminder, Purves notes, the 2022 bear market was driven entirely by P/E contraction, not falling earnings.
“Prospectively, the market needs to figure out two things: (1) will valuation need to be re-rated to a lower range to account for policy/economic/inflation uncertainty, and (2) will earnings start falling?” he said. “If we get a concurrence of falling earnings and P/E re-rate, then the probability of the SPX selling off to 4,800 will become much higher.”
“Market fears remain at the forefront,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “Investor sentiment also remains very weak.”
Bespoke cited the latest weekly poll from the American Association of Individual Investors, which showed that bearish sentiment was above 55% for the third straight week. The only other time since 1987 that bearish sentiment was above the
‘speed limit’ was in the three weeks ending March 4, 2009, the Bespoke strategists noted. The flip side of souring sentiment is that it could be a contrarian indicator for markets, noted Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments.
“Surging policy uncertainty has dented consumer and investor sentiment, raised inflation expectations and stalled the equity market rally, he said. “Should policy uncertainty ebb in the coming months, we believe risk assets will rebound.”
While the sharp drop in equity markets has been painful, Turnquist at LPL Financial says the downside rate of change and current drawdown is nothing out of the ordinary.”
Since 1950, 92% of trading days are accompanied by some degree of a drawdown on the S&P 500 (roughly 8% of days have been record highs), he said. A selloff inside of 5% is the most common, occurring in around 40% of all trading days.
“Swift drawdowns also create oversold conditions, and we are beginning to see signs of the broader market reaching washed-out territory,” he said. “However, the damage to longer- term breadth, lack of institutional participation, and defensive
rotational pressures leave us cautious on buying the dip right now.”
Ed Yardeni of eponymous firm Yardeni Research has lowered his year-end estimate on the S&P 500, with the best-case target cut to 6,400 from 7,000. The worst-case goal stands at 5,800.
“We continue to bet on the resilience of the economy. However, we acknowledge that it is being severely stress-tested now by Trump 2.0’s tariff turmoil and shotgun approach to paring the federal workforce,” he said. Earlier in March, Yardeni raised the probability of a US recession this year to 35% from 20%.
US equities are pricing in a recession risk much bigger than credit markets, leaving room for a positive surprise, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and Mika Inkinen wrote in a note.
“While there is clearly elevated uncertainty in the near term as the Trump Administration has at least initially prioritized more disruptive polices, the risk is that credit markets are proven right,” they said.
“The Treasury market is flirting with recession signals, helping amplify the risk-off sentiment in equities, while at the same time sending an alternative message of relative calm with relatively tight credit spreads,” according to Gina Martin Adams
and Michael Casper at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Notably, the Federal Reserve’s Treasury-based recession model flagged year-ahead recession risk a year ago, and may be proven right if tariff uncertainty continues to hamper economic activity, they said. Historically, a model reading exceeding 30% has accurately predicted recession one year out. And the current probability is 29.76%.
“The credit model’s implied probability continues to hint at a much calmer economic climate,” they noted. The indicator’s probability for recession was above 10% for most of the past two years and now sits at 13% — still just shy of suggesting a recession is in the cards.”

Key events this week:

* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0848
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2944
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 147.71 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.6% to $80,155.78
* Ether fell 2.1% to $1,851.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.26%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.86%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $66.58 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.6% to $2,982.96 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Sujata Rao, Allegra Catelli, Chiranjivi Chakraborty and John Viljoen.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The face is the mirror of the mind, and the eyes without speaking confess the secrets of the heart. –Saint Jerome, 342 AD-420 AD.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com