June 30th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday. Burning of the Three Firs, France.
June 30, 1905: Albert Einstein submits a paper outlining his theory of special relativity, redefining the relationship between space and time.
June 30, 1908: An asteroid exploded above Tunguska in Siberia, leaving 800 square miles of scorched or blown-down trees. Go to article

Lena Horne, singer, b.1917.
Susan Hayward, actress, b. 1918
Mike Tyson, boxer, b. 1966.

A forest returns
Underwater forests of cray-weed are slowly being restored off Australia’s southeastern coast after disappearing in the 1980s, likely due to dumped sewage.

Bey is safe!
Singer Beyoncé had to briefly stop the show in Houston after her “flying” car prop experienced a mishap in midair.

Blue screen goes bye bye
Microsoft’s infamous “blue screen of death,” which would appear on computer monitors whenever Windows users experienced “unexpected restarts,” will soon be retired

Roman army camp found in Netherlands, beyond the empire’s frontier
Archaeologists and students in the Netherlands have unearthed a 1,800-year-old temporary Roman military fort in the Netherlands. Read More.

See the stunning reconstruction of a Stone Age woman who lived 10,500 years ago in Belgium
The detailed reconstruction brings the prehistoric hunter-gatherer to life, revealing an intriguing set of features. Read More.

Scientists discover rare planet at the edge of the Milky Way using space-time phenomenon predicted by Einstein
Using gravitational microlensing, scientists have discovered a rare, large planet at the edge of the Milky Way. The planet is only the third to be found on the outskirts of our galaxy’s dense central bulge. Read More.

MIT’s high-tech ‘bubble wrap’ turns air into safe drinking water — even in Death Valley
Researchers at MIT have tested a new technology for turning water vapor in the atmosphere into drinkable water, even in extreme environments. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Berlin, Germany
Visitors crowd around a titan arum plant, measuring 2.36 metres high, as it blooms in the city’s botanical garden
Photograph: John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images

Shanghai, China
Tourists flock to visit the Louis, Louis Vuitton’s new flagship store shaped like a ship that houses retail, dining and cultural experiences
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

London, UK
Spectators wearing strawberry hats queue for entry on the opening day of the 2025 Wimbledon Tennis Championships
Photograph: Mike Egerton/PA
Market Closes for June 30^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Don’t gamble.  Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it.  If it don’t go up, don’t buy it. -Will Rogers, 1879-1935.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 26,857.11 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.0%.
Lundin Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.5%.
Today, 175 of 213 shares rose, while 38 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 7.8%
* This month, the index rose 2.6%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.32t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.64% compared with 6.48% in the previous session and the average of 6.70% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 55.8156| 1.6| 42/6
Financials | 49.2299| 0.6| 20/5
Industrials | 20.1797| 0.6| 25/4
Information Technology | 19.1630| 0.7| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 7.2544| 0.8| 8/1
Communication Services | 6.6249| 1.1| 5/0
Consumer Staples | 5.5673| 0.6| 9/1
Utilities | 2.9332| 0.3| 10/5
Real Estate | 1.5223| 0.3| 16/3
Health Care | 1.1485| 1.7| 3/0
Energy | -4.6388| -0.1| 28/12
RBC | 17.5000| 1.0| 106.9| 3.5
Shopify | 11.3200| 0.9| -5.9| 2.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 11.1100| 2.0| 11.5| 44.3
Manulife Financial | -3.4710| -0.7| -36.4| -1.4
Suncor | -3.8610| -0.9| -33.0| -0.6
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.5380| -0.7| -60.0| -3.6
(MT Newswires)
Canadian investors kicked off their celebrations early ahead of tomorrow’s Canada Day holiday by pushing the Toronto Stock Exchange to another fresh record close on Monday.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 164.79 points at 26,857.11, well up from what was then a record close of 26,388.96 struck on June 2, the first of eight record highs set over the month.
Most sectors were higher on Monday.
The biggest gainers were Health Care, up 1.9%. and Telecom, up 1.3%.
Two influential sectors in Energy, down 0.5%, and Base Metals down 0.35%, were lower.
Over recent months Canadians have been using the phrase ‘elbows up’, originating from the idea of protecting yourself or fighting back in hockey, to encourage each other to stand up to the United States in the face of threats to the country’s economy and sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Investors appear to have adopted the phrase when investing, driving the TSX to the series of record closes in June despite outside threats from a global tariffs war, which could lead to a global recession, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
The gains have also come even as the Canadian economy has been struggling of late.
Veteran market watcher, David Rosenberg, likely wouldn’t mind seeing some ‘elbows up’ from officials at the Bank of Canada in terms of their thinking on interest rates.
In a note published June 27, Rosenberg noted the Canadian economy had enjoyed a “false glow” from a sales tax holiday and the front-running of spending and exports ahead of the U.S.-imposed tariffs.
“But now its true colors are showing.” he said, noting “an economy as flat as a queue de castor”, referring to what French-speaking Canadians call popular pastries otherwise known as ‘beaver tails’, a sort of doughnut.
He noted Real GDP dipped 0.1% month over month in April, falling below the consensus call of 0%, after a modestly upward revision to March to 0.2% from 0.1%.
Meanwhile, StatCan’s estimate for May also showed a 0.1% contraction.
The year over year trend “melted” to a rise of 1.3% from 1.8% and the build-in for Q2 real GDP is now running at a fall of 0.3% sequential annualized rate.
Rosenberg said: “There is something happening beyond the tariff file alone — though the effects were seen in the sharp -0.9% pullback in industrial production — because the services sector barely expanded and has all but stagnated since the turn of the year. Transportation services and wholesale trade are in a deep funk.
So are building materials and clothing, the former tied to the housing market and the latter linked to the jobs cycle.”
“The Bank of Canada,” Rosenberg added, “would be well advised to remove its fixation on lagging inflation data and shift its focus to what the future will bring as the disinflationary output gap begins to widen again.
The case for a July rate cut … is pretty strong, but stepping on the gas pedal again will require that Tiff Macklem stop playing the dual role of deer in the headlights and ostrich with its head in the sand.”
Elsewhere, Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, also noted the TSX enters the summer at a record high, despite the ongoing trade war stress and a clear slowdown in economic growth.
Among the reasons for the resilience he cited are expectations that a trade deal is looming; favorable valuations coming into the year; and the reality that the index isn’t the best representation of the underlying Canadian economy.
What, Kavcic asks, has helped the TSX? He noted strength in gold has lifted TSX materials by more than 20% this year, the banks have performed well, pacing the broad index and consumer stocks have been firm.
The only real drags, he noted, have been energy and health care.
Kavic added: “BMO’s strategy team continues to like Canadian equities given current valuations and a low earnings expectations bar. We just need some of this strength to bleed into the real economy”.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower on Monday as strong summer demand is offset by rising supply with OPEC+ readying to again raise output, adding 411,000 barrels per day to the market beginning on Tuesday, its fourth tranche of monthly production hikes.
The group is said to be considering another same-sized tranche in August.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down $0.41 to settle at US$65.11 per barrel, while August Brent oil expired down $0.16 to US$67.61.
But gold traded higher late afternoon on Monday as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $32.30 to US$3,319.90 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s bulls drove stocks to all-time highs at the end of a solid quarter amid hopes the US is moving closer to reaching concrete deals with its top trading partners.
Bets the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts powered the best first-half stretch for Treasuries in five years.
The dollar saw its longest monthly slide since 2017.
Following a roughly 25% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 notched its best quarter since December 2023.
The US equity benchmark topped the 6,200 milestone on Monday, with technology shares leading the charge.
Apple Inc. climbed the most among megacaps.
Oracle Corp. jumped on a cloud-services deal worth $30 billion a year.
Big banks gained after passing the Fed’s annual stress test, setting the stage for payouts.
“Markets proved remarkably adaptable and resilient in the face of geopolitical shocks and trade uncertainty in the first half, largely because economic and profit conditions stood on firm footing,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
Just days ahead of the US jobs report, bonds rose.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense to ramp up sales of longer-term debt given where yields are, though he held out hope that rates across maturities will be falling as inflation slows.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is now projecting a Fed cut in September as the inflationary effects of tariffs “look a bit smaller” than expected.
A relative sense of calm prevailed at the end of a first half that saw wild swings lashing markets across the board amid President Donald Trump’s fast-evolving trade war, world conflicts, recession jitters as well as concerns about a ballooning deficit that could threaten America’s status as a safe haven.
“No one could fault an investor if at one point during the first half of 2025 they shouted, ‘Stop the world, I want to get off’,” said Sam Stovall at CFRA.
With Trump’s July 9 trade deadline fast approaching, the European Union is willing to accept a deal with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but seeks key exemptions.
Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan, citing what he said was the country’s unwillingness to accept rice exports from the US.
“The biggest catalyst for financial markets as a whole could be progress in trade talks – of a lack thereof,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“As long as there are no major escalations again in the Middle East or in the trade war, you’d think stock markets may not suffer much on any macro data. Still, there is always room for surprises.”
“While tariff headlines could periodically unsettle markets, we do not currently see them as a catalyst for a sustained market selloff,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“For investors under-allocated to broad equity markets, we recommend gradually increasing exposure to diversified global stocks or balanced portfolios to position for stronger potential returns in 2026 and beyond.”
US stocks could come under pressure if Fed rate cuts are accompanied by weaker economic growth, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka.
As long as there isn’t a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate, American equities are likely to get a boost from Fed policy easing, said Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
“The market has shrugged off signs of a slowing economy, but with the tariff picture still up in the air, a negative surprise on the jobs front could have more of an impact, especially during what will likely be a light-volume holiday week,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Economists forecast employers added 113,000 jobs in June, the fewest in four months yet still consistent with healthy labor demand.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report is due Thursday, a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday.
It’s also forecast to show the unemployment rate crept up to 4.3%.
For a Fed awaiting more clarity on the potential inflationary impact from tariffs, any pronounced deterioration in the labor market would likely lead to more pressure on officials to lower interest rates.
But the higher the S&P 500 goes, the louder the concern that its multiples are starting to look frothy.
The index is trading at 22 times expected profits in the next 12 months, 35% above its long-term average, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Earlier on Friday, Bank of America Corp. strategists warned of the increasing risk of a speculative stock-market bubble as traders drive massive flows into equities on expectations of US interest-rate cuts.
The upcoming earnings season could also test the foundation of the recent rally, especially with lackluster forecasts piling in.
US profit margins will face a big test in the upcoming reporting season as investors assess the damage from Trump’s trade war, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin.
They say earnings will “capture the immediate effects” of tariffs that have already increased by about 10 percentage points since the start of the year.
“Healthy economic fundamentals are an ultimate buffer for negative headlines, after all,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“As such, equities should remain resilient unless an adverse event materializes into something larger that curtails household spending and company earnings.”
That said, Shah also notes that given the uncertain policy backdrop, a broader hit to market sentiment cannot be ruled out.
“In this environment, it’s essential for investors to maintain well-diversified portfolios designed to navigate periods of heightened uncertainty,” she said.
“Those looking for an accommodative Fed to keep the market rising in the second half of the year will be quite disappointed,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“The market could indeed push higher as we move through July/August and beyond.
Momentum can be a powerful force in the markets, so if the stock market rallies further as we move through earnings season, the whole thing could feed on itself.”
Since World War II, there have only been three times where the market was down more than 10% and still finished positive – and we’re shaping up to do it again, noted Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“As we look ahead, the labor market data will be critical, but it will be how the market reacts that is most important, not the numbers themselves,” he said.
“If equities rally on weak jobs figures, we’re clearly in ‘bad news is good news’ mode, with investors betting on Fed support.”
While momentum is working in the market’s favor, with valuations at such levels and earnings estimates holding, “we are likely stealing returns from the back half of the year,” Hackett said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. rallied after the Justice Department settled its lawsuit challenging the company’s $13 billion takeover of Juniper Networks, less than two weeks before a trial was set to start.
* Meta Platforms Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg announced a major restructuring of the company’s artificial intelligence group, including a commitment to developing AI “superintelligence,” or systems that can complete tasks as well as or even better than humans.
* Apple Inc. is considering using artificial intelligence technology from Anthropic PBC or OpenAI to power a new version of Siri, sidelining its own in-house models in a potentially blockbuster move aimed at turning around its flailing AI effort.
* Moderna Inc. said its experimental flu shot met its goal in a late-stage trial, clearing the path for its broader strategy of selling combination vaccines.
* Republican lawmakers are debating a bill that ramps up Trump’s assault on wind and solar power, a worse-than-expected jolt that would drive up costs for clean energy while providing aid for fossil fuels.
* Trump blasted AT&T Inc. for poor network performance during a conference call he was holding with faith leaders on Monday.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. is joining the growing push to trade US equities on the blockchain, making tokenized US securities available to 150,000 customers in 30 countries, 24 hours a day, five days a week.
* Nintendo Co. pulled its products from Amazon.com Inc.’s US site after a disagreement over unauthorized sales, meaning the e-commerce company missed out on the recent debut of Nintendo’s Switch 2 — the biggest game console launch of all time.
* Boeing Co.’s $4.7 billion deal to buy Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. will face UK antitrust investigation, the country’s antitrust watchdog said.
* Home Depot Inc. has agreed to acquire specialty building products distributor GMS Inc. for $4.3 billion, its latest effort to grab more spending from professional contractors.
* The prospective buyer of TikTok’s American operations cited by Trump is the same investor consortium including Oracle Corp., Blackstone Inc. and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, whose bid for the app had stalled amid US-China trade tensions, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.3%
* KBW Bank Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1780
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3725
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 144.00 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $107,674.43
* Ether rose 3.2% to $2,511.28
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.24%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $65.04 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,308.41 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
When you learn, teach.  When you get, give. -Maya Angelou, 1928-2014.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com