June 29, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

William James Mayo, founder of the Mayo Clinic, b.1861.
Antoine de Saint-Exupery, writer, b.1900.

2007: Apple releases the first iPhone.  Go to article  

1938: Olympic National Park established.

On June 29, 1613: London’s original Globe Theatre, where many of Shakespeare’s plays were performed, was destroyed by a fire sparked by a cannon shot during a performance of “Henry VIII.”
A look at what else happened in history on June 29

Scientists spot a planet that shouldn’t exist.  The Jupiter-like planet named Halla is located 520 light-years from Earth. It may be an unlikely survivor after its host star’s temper tantrum.

A Brazilian fan left his entire fortune to Neymar.  The anonymous man named the multimillionaire soccer player in his will, leaving baffled people all over the world asking why.

The world’s best hotel is in Venice, Italy.

From cookies to popcorn, the new “it” snack flavor is boba.

Silver medal featuring winged Medusa discovered at Roman fort near Hadrian’s Wall
The nearly 1,800-year-old silver military medal was unearthed in what was once the northern edge of the Roman Empire. Read More

James Webb telescope discovers carbon compounds crucial to life in star system 1,000 light-years from Earth
An infant star system contains the basic building block for organic chemistry, new images reveal. Read More

Distortions in space-time could put Einstein’s theory of relativity to the ultimate test
Observing time distortions could show whether Einstein’s theory of general relativity accounts for the mysteries of dark matter and dark energy. Read More
PHOTOS  OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
Lisa Herbert performs during a media preview of Oracle – the Myth at Roslyn Packer theatre.  Photograph: Don Arnold/WireImage

Pittsburgh, US
Haze from Canadian forest fires hangs over PNC Park during a baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.  Photograph: Gene J Puskar/AP

Manchester, UK
A visitor walks through a part of Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama’s installation You, Me and The Balloons during a preview before the Manchester international festival.  Photograph: Phil Noble/Reuters
Market Closes for June 29^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1979, the editors of The Wall Street Journal booted Chrysler from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and replaced it with IBM in a sign of the American auto industry’s troubles at the time.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.5%, or 94.32 to 19,913.17 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since June 19.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%. BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.4%.
Today, 187 of 229 shares rose, while 40 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index fell 0.9%
* This month, the index rose 1.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 2.5%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended March 31
* The index advanced 4.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 11.4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and fell 0.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 on a trailing basis and 13.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.25% compared with 11.12% in the previous session and the average of 11.60% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 37.8880| 0.6| 25/4
Energy | 13.3598| 0.4| 36/3
Industrials | 12.5875| 0.5| 19/6
Materials | 10.1187| 0.4| 39/11
Consumer Discretionary | 7.1147| 0.9| 14/1
Communication Services | 4.1769| 0.5| 5/0
Utilities | 3.2420| 0.4| 14/2
Real Estate | 2.0877| 0.4| 18/3
Consumer Staples | 0.9611| 0.1| 8/3
Health Care | 0.6461| 1.3| 3/1
Information Technology | -8.5949| -0.5| 6/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 12.2800| 1.2| 54.0| -7.1
Bank of Nova Scotia | 7.4500| 1.4| 257.3| -1.2
Canadian Natural Resources | 6.6650| 1.2| -56.4| -1.9
Thomson Reuters | -1.7370| -0.9| -20.9| 15.0
Constellation Software | -2.7400| -0.7| -36.3| 30.6
Shopify | -9.9720| -1.4| -32.6| 79.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street got more signs the Federal Reserve’s war against inflation isn’t breaking the economy — or at least not yet — with traders sending Treasury yields soaring amid bets on further tightening.
Bonds sold off across the curve, with two-year yields jumping 15 basis points to 4.86%.
Swap markets now indicate a nearly 50% chance of a second Fed hike by year-end.
The dollar climbed.
The S&P 500 posted a mild advance, with equities facing a lot of instability as traders adjust their positions at the end of the quarter.
Banks led gains as the biggest lenders passed the Fed’s stress test, clearing the way for payouts.
Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. climbed at least 3.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 underperformed after soaring over 35% this year, buoyed by the artificial-intelligence hype.
Micron Technology Inc. slid on concern the chipmaker faces a slow recovery from an inventory glut.
The Russell 2000 Index of small caps climbed 1.2% in its fourth straight advance.
Thursday’s readings on jobless claims and the gross domestic product showed the US economy is in better shape than many had envisioned at the start of 2023.
While key gauges of inflation closely watched by the Fed have been revised down slightly, they still remain well above the central bank’s 2% target.
“The market is processing the recent strength in the economic data in both positive and negative ways,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. “Solid economic data means that the economy is more resilient, but it also emboldens the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates.”
Schleif noted that it’s very plausible that the Fed boosts interest rates in July — and perhaps again in September — especially if the economic data remains strong and if second-quarter earnings are better than expected.
In fact, market rate bets are aligning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s view that at least two hikes are likely necessary this year — and that acting at consecutive policy meetings isn’t “off the table.”
To Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com, the fact that the economy continues to defy expectations should keep the doves at the Fed quiet for another couple of months at least.
“But the potential for interest rates to remain higher for longer is something that could ultimately haunt investors,” he noted.
After Thursday’s data came out, the US curve inversion intensified — with longer-dated yields rising less than shorter-maturity ones.
That means: the economy may look stronger now, but investors expect the Fed’s rate increases to curb future growth, which could boost the risk of a recession down the road.
Despite all the jitters around a potential downturn and elevated inflation, the S&P 500 is close to wrapping up the first half of 2023 with a rally of about 15%.
Traders have also climbed a wall of worry amid the collapse of some regional banks, geopolitical risks and the debt-ceiling debate.
And history suggests the bullish momentum could continue according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
Since 1950, first-half gains of 10% or more have been followed by an average rally of 7.7% in the second half — with positive results 82% of the time, he noted.
While there could be some bumps along the way, the good news is that drawdowns in the second half tend to be shallower after a positive first half.
In addition, a pullback in stocks could give investors “a buying opportunity into this new bull market,” Turnquist added.
Meantime, short sellers are stepping up bets against the largest technology companies at the heart of this year’s market gains, a sign that investors are growing more skeptical of the massive rally.
Short interest as a percentage of shares available to trade is near 12-month highs for Microsoft Corp., Tesla Inc. and Amazon Inc., according to data compiled by S3 Partners.
In the last 30 days, traders have added to positions that would profit from declines in the shares of Apple Inc. to the tune of about $1 billion.
“Large cap equities and mega-cap tech names have jumped higher, providing a degree of relief for investors,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management.
“We remain concerned, though, that these moves are beyond optimism over growth prospects for AI, for example, and instead reflect misguided hopes for a change in the direction of monetary policy.”
Key events this week:
* China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, balance of payments, Friday
* US personal income and spending, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0869
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2613
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.82 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $30,633.72
* Ether rose 1.5% to $1,859.01
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 13 basis points to 3.84%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.38%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $69.83 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,915.90 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Brett Miller, Sujata Rao, John Viljoen, Peyton Forte, Carly Wanna and Michael Mackenzie.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
All we really want in the end is to be connected once again with the Truth of our being,
to realize what it is that wears this mask of self. -Adyshanti, b. 1962.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com