June 14, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 14^th, 1775: The US Army first forms as the Continental Army to fight the American Revolutionary War.
1940: The Nazis opened a concentration camp at Auschwitz in German-occupied Poland.  Go to article.
1951: Univac Computer unveiled.

Vegetable gardening for beginners.  It’s quite satisfying to grow your own food from scratch. Here are reasons you should consider planting a vegetable garden if your space allows.

50 million:  That’s roughly how many people in the US quit their jobs in the two years after the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, citing various pressures like burnout or child care needs. Amid a tight labor market, many were also able to find better jobs with better pay. But now, experts say “The Great Resignation” is over and mass layoffs in some industries may be causing Americans to stay put.

‘Liquid gypsum’ burial from Roman Britain scanned in 3D, revealing 1,700-year-old secrets
About 1,700 years ago, a wealthy Roman family was buried with a bizarre material poured over their corpses. Now, a 3D scan has revealed the insides of their burial cocoon. Read More

12,000-year-old flutes carved of bone are some of the oldest in the world and sound like birds of prey.
Archaeologists have unearthed a collection of 12,000-year-old flutes carved out of bird bones that mimic the calls of certain birds of prey. Full Story: Live Science (6/9).

Amino acid taurine can slow aging in animals, but we don’t know if it works in people.
Taurine — an amino acid made by the human body and often added to energy drinks — can slow aging and extend the life spans of certain animals, a new study suggests. Full Story: Live Science (6/8)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Milan, Italy
People wait outside the cathedral before the state funeral for Italy’s former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi Photograph: Gabriel Bouys/AFP/Getty Images.

Athens, Greece
The Parthenon temple is reflected in a puddle after heavy rain Photograph: Petros Giannakouris/AP

Norfolk, UK
Amur tiger Mishka with one of her six-week-old cubs as they begin to explore their enclosure at Banham zoo Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA
Market Closes for June 14^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2000, authorities arrested nearly 100 in an alleged Mafia-led plot that exploited the dot-com boom. The alleged fraud extracted around $50 million from thousands of investors.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.1%, or 24.69 to 20,015.09 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since June 6.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Lundin Mining Corp. had the largest increase, rising 5.7%.
Today, 109 of 232 shares rose, while 115 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index fell 0.4%
* The index advanced 2.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 12% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022 * The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and fell 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 13.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.18t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 11.93% compared with 11.93% in the previous session and the average of 11.12% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | 28.9154| 1.1| 19/8
Information Technology | 26.7125| 1.7| 7/4
Financials | 15.1506| 0.3| 18/10
Consumer Discretionary | 9.0542| 1.2| 11/4
Consumer Staples | 2.0953| 0.3| 5/5
Real Estate | 0.3431| 0.1| 12/6
Materials | -0.0092| 0.0| 24/24
Health Care | -0.6674| -1.0| 3/3
Utilities | -7.5231| -0.8| 1/15
Communication Services | -8.7005| -1.0| 3/2
Energy | -40.6936| -1.2| 6/34
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 23.7500| 3.4| -9.0| 86.9
Canadian National | 9.6150| 1.5| -25.4| -3.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 7.1710| 1.1| -5.3| 2.6
Canadian Natural Resources | -5.7680| -1.0| 63.6| -1.7
Nutrien | -8.5990| -3.0| 20.2| -21.1
Enbridge | -10.9700| -1.6| -42.6| -7.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed little changed as the Federal Reserve signaled the possibility of resuming its interest-rate hikes after pausing its tightening cycle in June to assess economic conditions.
The S&P 500 finished higher by just 0.1%, recovering some ground after Jerome Powell said no decision has been made for the next few meetings.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, climbed three basis points to 4.7%.
The dollar fell.
The Fed decision left the benchmark federal funds rate in a target range of 5% to 5.25%.
Fresh quarterly Fed forecasts showed borrowing costs rising to 5.6% by year end, according to the median projection, compared with 5.1% in the previous round of projections.

Reaction to Fed:
* Edward Moya at Oanda:
“The Fed statement and projections were very hawkish, but Powell’s presser was a bit optimistic regarding their inflation fight and non-committal for a July rate hike. ​The S&P 500 recovered initial losses as traders believe the Fed is becoming a bit overly aggressive on what will be needed to get inflation all the way down.”​
* Andrew Slimmon at Morgan Stanley Investment Management:
“What I find fascinating is despite a hawkish tone from today’s Fed announcement, the S&P barely went negative. The reason is that retail and institutional assets remain drastically offsides and are looking for any pullback as an opportunity to increase exposure.”
* Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance:
“The Fed is saying that they are going to continue to fight inflation by raising interest rates at future meetings, but what the market hears is that the Fed is close to stopping interest rate hikes and it’s time to put cash to work.”
* Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research:
“What the hell do you expect them to do? Unemployment is not rising as much as they thought. Inflation is still firm.  Growth is strong and the momentum behind it is favorable.”
* Mike Loewengart at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office:
“The Fed may have paused today, as expected, but they probably raised a few eyebrows with their hawkish language — suggesting investors may have two more rate hikes to look forward to. The market’s initial pullback after the announcement showed how investors felt about that. But the inflation battle was always slated to be a long one, and there’s likely to be more bumps in the road for the market.”
* Greg McBride at Bankrate:
“The Fed is taking a breather. But it will likely be very short-lived, with rate hikes potentially resuming as soon as July. For now, the Fed will use this time to take in more data on inflation, the health of the economy, and tightening credit conditions before deciding what comes next.”
* Jason Pride at Glenmede:
“No rate hike this month does not necessarily mean that the Fed is finished raising rates this cycle. It is more likely that today’s decision will prove to be a ‘skip’ ahead of another rate hike at the July meeting than a prolonged pause in the rate hike campaign.”
Even with a pause in Fed hikes and an artificial intelligence boom that helped drive the S&P 500 into a bull market, there’s more pain ahead for stocks, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.
He reiterated his year-end price target of 3,900 for the gauge, which implies an 11% drop from Tuesday’s close.
“Our view is that inflation is going to come down, and while that potentially is very good for bonds, it’s not going to be good for stocks because that’s where the earnings power is coming from — this is really our boom-bust thesis.”
Key events this week:
* China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
* European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds press conference following the rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, business inventories, industrial production, Thursday
* Bank of Japan rate decision, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0825
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2659
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 139.97 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $25,869.47
* Ether fell 0.6% to $1,728.33
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.80%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.45%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.39%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $68.79 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, John
Viljoen, Vildana Hajric, Carly Wanna, Isabelle Lee, Sophie Caronello and Emily Graffeo.

Have a  lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If it were not for hopes, the heart would break. –Thomas Fuller, 1608-1661.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com