July 9th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 9, 1816: Argentina declares independence from Spain, establishing itself as a sovereign nation.
July 9, 1893: First successful open-heart surgery.
July 9, 2004: A Senate Intelligence Committee report concluded the CIA had provided unfounded assessments of the threat posed by Iraq that the Bush administration relied on  to justify going to war.  Go to article.

Nikola Tesla, inventor, b. 1856.
Otto Respighi, composer, b. 1879.
Tom Hanks, actor, b. 1956.
Courtney Love, singer, b. 1964.

Why were the Texas flash floods so catastrophic?
More than 100 people have died in devastating flash floods in Kerr County, Texas. But what caused this extreme weather, and will events like this get more common? Read More.

Buck Moon 2025: How to spot the year’s farthest full moon from the sun
July’s full “Buck Moon” will be at its fullest on Thursday, July 10, and will be best seen at moonrise. It is the farthest full moon from the sun all year and one of the lowest in the sky. Read More.

Whooo’s there? James Webb telescope spots ‘Cosmic Owl,’ super-rare structure formed from colliding ring galaxies
Located billions of light-years away, the “Cosmic Owl” is a pair of colliding ring galaxies spotted by the JWST. It’s also an “exceptional natural laboratory” for studying how galaxies evolve. Read More.

The $23 million idea
A group of leading tech companies plans to train 400,000 teachers on how to use artificial intelligence.

‘I’m quite happy’
After nearly 60 years in Hollywood, two-time Oscar-winning actor Michael Douglas says he’s pretty much done with performing.

You can’t please everyone
Like all actors, Jesse Tyler Ferguson is used to receiving criticism for his work. But the “Modern Family” star recently revealed who his loudest critics were.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Buenos Aires, Argentina
City skyscrapers rising above the fog
Photograph: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images

A newly hatched spotted sandpiper chick gets its feet wet while foraging along the bank of the Umpqua River near Elkton, Oregon, US. In this species, it’s typically the male that takes on most of the parenting duties, incubating the eggs and caring for the young. The chicks are able to walk and feed themselves within hours of hatching, though they remain under the watchful eye of their father for several weeks
Photograph: Robin Loznak/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock

Flamingos preparing to take flight are reflected on Lake Tuz, which hosts thousands of flamingos every year, in Ankara, Turkey. This year, the lake has seen a decline in flamingo numbers due to drought, prompting the birds to shift their migration route to other wetlands across Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 9^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
It is totally unproductive to think the world has been unfair to you.  Every tough stretch is an opportunity. -Charlie Munger, 1924-2023, Vice -Chairman Berkshire Hathaway, 2007 Wesco Annual Meeting.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% at 26,972.32 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.6%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.1%.
Today, 123 of 213 shares rose, while 86 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on July 7, 2025, and 24.5% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-monthbasis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.35t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.81% compared with 5.79% in the previous session and the average of 6.35% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 29.3490| 0.8| 34/12
Information Technology | 20.3887| 0.8| 4/6
Financials | 18.5199| 0.2| 14/11
Industrials | 13.7237| 0.4| 21/8
Consumer Discretionary | 3.9006| 0.4| 5/4
Consumer Staples | 2.6414| 0.3| 6/4
Real Estate | 2.3042| 0.5| 13/5
Utilities | 1.6120| 0.2| 11/4
Health Care | -0.0782| -0.1| 2/1
Communication Services | -0.6521| -0.1| 2/3
Energy | -22.9417| -0.5| 11/28
Shopify | 21.2800| 1.6| -3.7| 2.3
CIBC | 9.7900| 1.5| 0.8| 9.5
Wheaton Precious Metals | 9.3570| 2.5| 6.3| 50.3
Brookfield Corp | -3.4080| -0.4| 11.8| 3.6
TC Energy | -6.4670| -1.4| -16.4| -4.8
Enbridge | -9.1420| -1.0| -41.1| -1.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher for the first time in three sessions on Wednesday as investors bid up financial issues, even as U.S. President’s capricious tariff policies are raising concerns for that country’s growth and its outlook for inflation.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 68.75 points to 26,972.32.
Base Metal led the big decliners, down 2.5%, while Industrials and Financial topped the list, rising 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank said U.S. President Trump is ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates now and is applying pressure on trading partners because he appears to be panicking.
Earlier in the day, Trump sent letters to at least seven countries, including Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines, assigning new US tariffs.
This follows his Monday letters to countries like Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Holt said Trump is worried that upcoming data will show his new tariffs pushing prices higher, which would justify the Fed’s caution and make future rate cuts harder to defend.
“Trump is also panicking because major trading partners are hardly beating a path to the US administration’s door in a quest to sign trade deals; they understand the US political cycle better than the US administration that overplayed its protectionist hand,” he added.
A worst-case scenario for Trump could include issues like tariffs fueling inflation in the coming months, the Fed holding rates steady for longer, and lifting the debt ceiling leading to a surge in government bond issuance, pushing yields higher, similar to what happened in 2023, Holt said.
On top of that, stricter immigration rules could slow economic growth while adding modest inflation pressure.
Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ may not deliver long-term economic gains either, Holt said, adding that “America’s trading partners probably know all of this.
Trump’s willingness to de-escalate trade tensions could improve as the costs of his policies become more evident and the midterms approach.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil closed with a small gain on Wednesday after Houthi militants attacked and sunk a cargo ship in the Red Sea, though an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories last week offered a counter to the safe-haven demand.
WTI oil for August delivery closed up US$0.05 to settle at US$68.38 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$0.06 to US$70.21.
Gold edged higher midafternoon on Wednesday even as the dollar rose with the metal remaining rangebound after falling off a record high set in June.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$3.50 to US$3,320.40 per ounce, nearly 7% below the June 13 record high of US$3,452.80.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in several big techs spurred a rebound in stocks, with Nvidia Corp. briefly hitting $4 trillion.
Treasuries climbed after a solid $39 billion sale.
Brazil’s real tumbled as President Donald Trump said the US will impose a 50% tariff on imports from the South American giant.
Equity traders brushed off trade angst to send the S&P 500 just a few points away from its record high.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is now signaling “extreme greed,” an indication of the market’s bullish momentum.
A gauge of mega caps added 1.1%, with Nvidia extending this year’s surge to more than 20%.
In another sign of risk appetite, Bitcoin topped $112,000 for the first time.
Trump unveiled a new round of tariff demand letters on Wednesday, with Brazil’s rate being one of the highest so far announced for the levies which are set to hit in August.
The US president cited the treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro in his letter to Brazil, calling on authorities to drop charges against him over an alleged coup attempt.
“We believe the setup for equity markets looks bullish, even in light of renewed trade-war jitters,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“While equities may come under some near-term pressure, investors are increasingly becoming numb to the tariff headlines and instead focusing on the trendlines.”
The Treasury market snapped a five-day selloff, with 10- year yields down six basis points to 4.34%.
A sale of the bonds drew a yield of 4.362%, slightly lower than indicated by pre- auction trading just before the bidding deadline, indicating demand exceeded expectations.
A $22 billion offering of 30-year debt is set for Thursday.
The emerging divide among Federal Reserve officials over the outlook for interest rates is being driven largely by differing expectations for how tariffs might affect inflation, a record of policymakers’ most recent meeting showed.
“While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17-18 meeting said.
To Jeff Roach at LPL Financial, the FOMC is comfortable remaining in wait-and-see mode.
Despite headwinds, the economy continues to trudge along, giving policymakers time to assess the projected impact from tariffs, he said.
While concern about the inflationary impacts of tariffs is one reason why the Fed has continued to postpone lowering rates, Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management doesn’t believe this changes the dynamics in the bull market .
“Most investors believe that the economy is strong, corporate profits will be resilient and are eager to buy stocks, however, we believe more caution is warranted because we haven’t yet seen the impact of tariffs on corporate profits and consumer spending, because there have been so many delays in implementing them,” he said.
With the S&P 500 back at cycle-high valuations, the market seems to be signaling a robust appetite for risk, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
This heightened sentiment likely reflects positive interpretation of recent data as supportive, he said.
The S&P 500 has repaired some of its technical damage, bolstered by impressive market leadership from industrials, financials, and the technology sectors, Hackett noted.
“Nvidia’s march today as the first company to surpass a $4 trillion market cap is only the latest example of this,” he said.
Nvidia’s surge to the new milestone marked a stunning rebound following a rough start to the year, when spending fears sparked by China’s DeepSeek, along with Trump’s trade war, weighed on risk sentiment.
The stock is up more than 1,000% since the beginning of 2023.
Nvidia now accounts for 7.5% of the S&P 500, near its highest influence on record.
“Historically, mega caps have tended to continue their rallies after reaching various $1 trillion market cap thresholds,” according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
For all of these instances, the average gain in the next six months is a 9.09% rally with positive performance two-thirds of the time, they said.
Of these stocks, Amazon.com Inc. holds the title of having averaged the largest rally after reaching one of these thresholds, with Nvidia as the runner up.
Fast-money investors are edging their way back into US stocks after sitting out a furious rally, bolstering the case for equities to extend their advance further into uncharted territory.
A BNP Paribas measure of equity positioning among investors including commodity-trading advisors, volatility-target funds and hedge funds has been steadily rising and now sits at just above neutral.
That follows a monthslong rally that saw the S&P 500 Index rebound to new highs from the precipice of a bear market.
The last time institutions were this light on stocks in the midst of a sharp recovery was in 2023, according to the bank.
Just this week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists raised their outlook for US stocks, citing among other factors the continued strength in the largest US companies as reasons why stocks are likely to keep heading higher.
“If the script goes as planned and economic activity remains firm; corporate profitability remains solid (especially across tech), and the inevitable unexpected speed bumps in the road don’t throw the market off track too much, stocks have an opportunity to grind higher through year-end,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
Yet Saglimbene remarks there’s now an elevated risk of disappointment, “especially after seeing how quickly the overall investment narrative can change based on the constant barrage of White House announcements.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. was upgraded at Oppenheimer on Wednesday, adding to a growing consensus on Wall Street that the software giant is in a strong position within artificial intelligence.
* Apple Inc. thinks it is “too big to tariff, in some sense, and it’s used that line,” White House trade counselor Peter Navarro told Fox Business.
* France’s antitrust regulator said it notified Meta Platforms Inc. of a potential violation of competition rules relating to the online advertising sector.
* CoreWeave Inc., a cloud computing provider, said it would offer Nvidia’s RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell GPUs at scale.
* Linda Yaccarino, who was hired two years ago by Elon Musk as chief executive officer of X, is stepping down less than three months after the social-media platform was absorbed by Musk’s artificial intelligence startup.
* Merck & Co. agreed to buy respiratory drugmaker Verona Pharma Plc for around $10 billion as part of its ongoing search for ways to fill the Keytruda-sized hole that will emerge over the next few years.
* Meta Platforms Inc. bought a minority stake in the world’s largest eyewear manufacturer, EssilorLuxottica SA, deepening the US tech giant’s commitment to the fast-growing smart glasses industry, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Autodesk Inc. is weighing an acquisition of rival engineering- software provider PTC Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. promoted a new leader for the company’s Medicaid insurance segment, filling a role that was vacant after recent executive changes.
* Starbucks Corp. has received proposals from prospective investors in its China business, most of whom are eyeing a controlling stake in the operation, said people familiar with the matter.
* AES Corp., which provides renewable power to tech giants such as Microsoft Corp., is exploring options including a potential sale amid takeover interest, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* Samsung Electronics Co. introduced three new foldable smartphones to cement its grip on the category and broaden mainstream appeal before Apple Inc. debuts its first version next year.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
* Nvidia rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1718
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3594
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 146.35 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $111,832.69
* Ether rose 6.2% to $2,760.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.67%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,315.09 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Action speaks louder than words but not nearly as often. -Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com