July 24th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  The astronomical new moon for July 2025 occurs today, Thursday, July 24, when the Moon reaches conjunction with the Sun—meaning it’s completely invisible from Earth.
Precise timings include:

• July 24, 2025 at 2:11 p.m. PT (Pacific Time)—approximately the same moment across the Northern Hemisphere Calendar 12+5Wikipedia+5Astronomy Magazine+5.

This moment marks the official start of the lunar cycle. In the Northern Hemisphere, it appears as the Moon is entirely dark and unseen in the sky.

Today is Pioneer Day – Mormons enter Salt Lake City, July 24, 1847.

July 24, 1847: American inventor Richard March Hoe patents the rotary printing press, revolutionizing mass printing.
July 24, 1959: During a visit to the Soviet Union, Vice President Richard M. Nixon and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev compared the merits of capitalism and communism in the “kitchen debate,” so-named because it took place at a model kitchen at a U.S. exhibition.  Go to article.

Simon Bolivar, S. American liberator, b. 1783.
Alexandre Dumas, writer, b. 1802.
Amelia Earhart, aviatrix, b. 1898.
Zelda Fitzgerald, writer, b. 1900.
Jennifer Lopez, actress, b. 1970

Neanderthal genes may explain disorder where brain bulges out of the skull
Neanderthal genes may explain why some people have Chiari malformation type I, a condition in which the brain bulges out of the back of the skull. Read More.

Iconic ‘Apollo Earthrise’ crater just helped a spaceship get better at hunting aliens
A large lunar crater featured in the iconic ‘Earthrise’ photo has just helped the European JUICE spacecraft hone its alien-hunting instruments during a once-in-a-lifetime flyby. Read More.

Best-ever map of the human genome sheds light on ‘jumping genes,’ ‘junk DNA’ and more
In a pair of papers, scientists greatly expanded our catalog of known genomic variation among humans. Read More.

Watch this robot ‘cannibal’ grow bigger and stronger by consuming smaller robots
Scientists explore the concept of “robot metabolism” with a weird machine that can integrate material from other robots so it can become more capable and overcome physical challenges. Read More.

Students build new ‘hybrid drone’ — watch it fly in the air and then seamlessly dive underwater
A 3D-printed hybrid drone can quickly transition between air and water thanks to variable pitch propellers. Watch a video of the drone in action. Read More.

Venus Williams is engaged
The tennis superstar revealed the big news after becoming the second-oldest woman to win a tour-level singles match.

Pete Davidson expecting first child with partner
And the comedian is overjoyed to be entering his dad era.

What is Shohei Ohtani’s next big hit? 
Let’s just say it has to do with the Los Angeles Dodgers player’s dog.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Konya, Turkey
The harvest season ends in the circular wheat fields of Altınova and Gözlü in the Kadınhanı district
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Horsey Gap, UK
People watch a grey seal colony on the beach in Norfolk
Photograph: Matthew Chattle/Shutterstock

Almere, Netherlands
A bus drives through a solar farm. The farm produces enough electricity to supply 80,000 households
Photograph: Shutterstock
Market Closes for July 24^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward, –Steve Jobs, 1955-2011.

On this day in 1987, the corporate assets of ZZZZ Best were sold at bankruptcy auction. The carpet-cleaning company run by 21-year-old whiz kid Barry Minkow had a stock-market value of roughly $300 million months earlier—but virtually no customers, revenues or assets. Minkow had set up an elaborate system of phantom offices and phony account records.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 27,372.26 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Teck Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 8.7%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 14.4%.
Today, 120 of 213 shares fell, while 86 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.44t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.24% compared with 6.23% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -46.9142| -1.3| 3/44
Financials | -24.0829| -0.3| 13/12
Consumer Discretionary | -7.3680| -0.8| 2/7
Utilities | -0.9861| -0.1| 5/9
Information Technology | -0.4268| 0.0| 5/4
Health Care | 0.3582| 0.5| 2/1
Communication Services | 0.5190| 0.1| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 0.5228| 0.1| 5/5
Industrials | 2.6154| 0.1| 12/17
Real Estate | 5.1989| 1.1| 4/13
Energy | 26.4436| 0.6| 32/6
Teck Resources | -14.0400| -8.7| 116.2| -17.7
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.1920| -1.2| 46.2| -0.2
Couche-Tard | -7.5520| -1.8| -8.1| -6.1
FirstService | 6.3120| 8.9| 186.8| 1.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 6.7340| 1.1| -57.3| -2.8
Waste Connections | 11.6500| 2.6| 51.1| 4.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock closed lower Thursday, falling off a day-prior record close, as market watchers’ debate whether or not a rate cut is possible over the second half of 2025, even if the window for one may be tight.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell a modest 44.15 points to 27,372.26.
Among sectors, most were lower, but only Base Metals fell by more than 1%, dropping1.7%.
Energy was the biggest gainer, rising 0.95%.
In the rates debate, RBC noted its central scenario since mid-June is that the Bank of Canada cutting cycle is over.
“Yes,” it said, “there are risks of further cuts if the macro landscape turns out worse than we expect, but status quo seems insufficient to compel the BoC to act.”
According to RBC, the market is “warming up to our view, whereas consensus has pushed out expected cuts to later in the year”.
Still, RBC did say the BoC should, at its July 30 meeting, keep the door open to further easing contingent on slower growth and lower inflation.
“There is no incentive to remove that optionality amid elevated uncertainty around trade wars.
But the window for cuts is closing fast as monetary policy will probably pass the baton to fiscal after the federal budget (expected in October)
Taylor Schleich, National Bank Director, Economics and Strategy, also said the BoC will leave the overnight target unchanged at 2.75%, the middle of its estimated neutral range, for a third straight meeting.
Unlike the prior two decisions, there’s little doubt about this one, as OIS markets discount sub-10% easing odds, he added.
“Those who had earlier been expecting a cut in July, us included, were dealt a blow this month when hiring was reported to have surged in June and underlying inflation failed to moderate.
The closely watched Business Outlook Survey was hardly upbeat but still soft sentiment is insufficient to compensate for firm core inflation and strong job growth.
Inflation expectations improved but remain a bit high, Schleich said.
In citing growing momentum around the idea that the rate easing cycle is over, Schleich said National Bank disagrees and doesn’t expect the bank’s Governing Council to validate this more hawkish view.
“Instead,” he added, “they’re likely to keep guidance unchanged, reiterating that they’re proceeding carefully and monitoring the same four indicators: export demand; tariff impacts on investment, employment and spending; inflation; and inflation expectations.”
Assuming the BoC’s data dependent stance is reaffirmed, National Bank doesn’t expect a material rate reaction post-decision.
“Markets will likely continue pricing less than one cut this year, for now,” he said.
Schleich noted the BoC’s rates decision will bring with it a new Monetary Policy Report and it hopes this will contain a central economic projection, rather two “illustrative scenarios” as presented in April.
“Policymakers have said we’re closer to the less disruptive scenario which could mean the growth forecasts published are stronger than our own.”
Of commodities today, gold prices weakened late afternoon as the dollar rose after the United States reported a drop in initial jobless claims and investors moved to risk assets after the Trump Administration reached a trade deal with Japan.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $23.90 to US$3,431.20 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher for the first time in five sessions as a day-prior report showed a steeper than expected drop in U.S inventories, though demand concerns continue amid rising supply.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.78 to settle at US$66.03 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up $0.40 to US$68.91.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at all-time highs as Alphabet Inc.’s results showed solid demand for artificial intelligence, bolstering confidence in the technology that has powered the bull market.
Signs of jobs strength ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision lifted Treasury yields.
Following a 28% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 eked out a gain while notching its 10th record in 19 trading days.
Google’s parent AI optimism fueled a rally in companies like Nvidia Corp., which hit a fresh record.
Tesla Inc. sank 8.2% as Elon Musk warned of difficult times after one of the carmaker’s worst stretches since it started producing electric sedans over a dozen years ago.
The S&P 500’s record-setting spree may be stoking concerns about inflated share prices and a revival of meme-stock froth, but JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk isn’t concerned.
Rather, it expects the rally in US equities to keep going.
“While bullishness is not yet consensus, client conversations reveal that even those that skewed bearish are throwing in the towel,” the bank’s head of global market intelligence Andrew Tyler said Thursday in a note ahead of the market open.
Bonds dropped for a second day, with 10-year yields rising three basis points to 4.41%.
Traders slightly pared bets on Fed cuts, projecting less than two reductions this year.
The dollar edged up.
As European policymakers tempered expectations of policy easing, German bunds slid.
US jobless claims fell for a sixth straight week – the longest stretch of declines since 2022.
The characterization of the labor market will be a key feature of next week’s Fed meeting.
“There are still few signs of major cracks in the labor market,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“And if that picture remains intact, the Fed has one less reason to cut interest rates.”
Trading desks at firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citadel Securities are telling clients to buy cheap hedges against potential losses in US stocks as a slew of risks loom over the market’s record advance.
US margin debt, a measure showing how much investors are borrowing to buy stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, is starting to run too hot — a potentially concerning sign for the credit market, according to credit strategists at Deutsche Bank AG.
The market euphoria may continue if there are unexpected tariff reductions or a more dovish stance by the Fed than investors anticipate, the strategists said.
The world’s investors are enjoying a confidence boost after months of uncertainty as President Donald Trump finally starts signing trade deals.
Earlier this year, rapidly shifting tariff policies sent global markets spiraling.
But risk assets have rebounded as investors saw signs of progress in negotiations, and the greenback has steadied.
Trump suggested he would not go below 15% as he sets reciprocal tariff rates ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
US stocks face near-term risk as the market is too complacent about tariffs and the related backlash, according to BNP Paribas Asset Management strategist Chi Lo.
On the trade front, Trump suggested he would not go below 15% as he sets so-called reciprocal tariff rates ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, an indication that the floor for the increased levies was rising.
While some investors are concerned about “frothiness,” Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that, from a technical point of view, that this is not the case when looking “down-cap” from the heavy-weights in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.
“We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation,” he said.
The NYSE advance-decline line, which tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day, this week hit fresh highs.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google inked a deal worth more than $1 billion to provide cloud-computing services to software firm ServiceNow Inc., a win for Google Cloud’s efforts to get major enterprises onto its platform.
* International Business Machines Corp. reported weaker-than- expected sales in its closely watched software segment, disappointing investors who have grown increasingly optimistic about the business.
* Microsoft Corp. said a Chinese hacking group is exploiting security vulnerabilities in the company’s SharePoint servers to deploy ransomware, following a cyberattack discovered last week that has affected hundreds of entities around the world.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. is responding to criminal and civil requests from the US Department of Justice about its Medicare practices, the company said, confirming reports of probes that have added to mounting challenges for the largest US health insurer.
* Union Pacific Corp., North America’s largest railroad, is in advanced discussions with Norfolk Southern Corp. about a potential tie-up in what would be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* American Airlines Group Inc. scaled back its earnings outlook amid deep fare discounts offered to woo reluctant travelers back on flights during a slump in consumer demand.
* Southwest Airlines Co. expects economic turmoil to erase as much as $1 billion of its annual pre-tax profit this year, prompting the US airline to offer shareholders a much-reduced outlook for 2025.
* Union Pacific Corp., North America’s largest railroad, is in advanced discussions with Norfolk Southern Corp. about a potential tie-up in what would be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* The Food and Drug Administration won’t sign off on Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. bringing its controversial gene therapy back to the market until the company can persuade US regulators that it won’t cause more deaths, according to an official familiar with the situation.
* Dow Inc. slumped after the chemical company reported its first quarterly loss in five years as trade and tariff uncertainties weighed on volumes.
* T-Mobile US Inc., the nation’s second-largest wireless provider, reported more new subscribers than analysts were expecting in the second quarter, overcoming a sluggish start to the year.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. cut its annual outlook for the second time this year, suggesting that honey chicken and burrito giveaways haven’t been enough to offset a traffic slump that the company attributed to economic anxiety.
* Blackstone Inc. reported a 25% jump in distributable earnings for the second quarter, buoyed by profits from its retail and evergreen funds.
* ServiceNow Inc. gave a strong outlook for revenue growth in the third quarter and touted customer adoption of its artificial intelligence software tools.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1759
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3508
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 146.93 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $119,052.72
* Ether rose 4.7% to $3,737.51
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $66.20 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,370.69 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best revenge is massive success. –Frank Sinatra, 1915-1998.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com