July 22nd,2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 22, 1298: English forces under Edward I defeat William Wallace at the Battle of Falkirk, quelling the Scottish uprising.
July 22, 1376: Pied Piper of Hamelin, Germany, leads the children away.
July 22, 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed in New Hampshire, pegging major foreign currencies to the U.S. dollar, fixing the gold price at $35 per ounce, and laying the groundwork for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
July 22, 2004: The Sept. 11 commission issued a report saying America’s leaders failed to grasp the gravity of terrorist threats before the 9/11 attacks.  Go to article.

Edward Hopper, artist, b.1882.
Karl Menninger, psychiatrist, b. 1893.
Alexander Calder, sculptor, b. 1898.
Tom Robbins, writer, b. 1936.

Hang on: Earth is spinning faster today. OK, so you won’t feel the 1.38-millisecond difference, but the reason still makes for an intriguing read for science nerds. The spin will be even faster in two weeks.

China launches world’s first robot that can run by itself 24/7 — watch it change its own batteries in unsettling new footage
The Walker S2 humanoid robot, which can change its own battery when it’s running low on power, could potentially be left to run on its own forever. Read More.

2,200-year-old Celtic settlement discovered in Czech Republic — and it’s awash in gold and silver coins
A 2,200-year-old Celtic settlement containing coins and jewelry has been discovered in the Czech Republic. Read More.

Ötzi the Iceman and his neighbors had totally different ancestries, ancient DNA study finds
A study of prehistoric skeletons from the Italian Alps shows that society may have been organized around fathers and that Ötzi the Iceman had a unique family lineage. Read More.

Shark Week team discovers unusual ‘black makos’ off California coast
Weird makos filmed off the California coast in a new Shark Week show raise questions about what these sharks actually are. Read More.

Springsteen makes appearance at Zach Bryan concert
The Boss surprised the audience at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, last weekend and performed two songs.

Someone has eaten artist Maurizio Cattelan’s $6 million banana
Yes, again.

 “The fact that CBS didn’t try to save their No. 1 rated late-night franchise that’s been on the air for over three decades is part of what’s making everybody wonder … was this purely financial or maybe the path of least resistance for your $8 billion merger?”  — Jon Stewart, host of “The Daily Show,” on the cancellation of “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.”

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Uyuni, Bolivia
Tourists watch the sunset at the Uyuni salt flat, which has an area of more than 10,000 sq km and is the biggest such landscape in the world
Photograph: Esteban Biba/EPA

Villars-sur-Ollon, Switzerland
A giant biodegradable land art painting, Vers l’Horizon by the French-Swiss artist Saype, is seen on the ridges of the Grand Chamossaire mountain, above the alpine resort of Villars-sur-Ollon
Photograph: Jean-Christophe Bott/AP

Long summer days on Hampstead Heath in London
Photograph: Sarah M Lee/The Guardian
Market Closes for July 22^nd, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run it acts like a weighing machine. –Benjamin Graham, 1894-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.2%, or 47.43 to 27,364.43 in Toronto.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.2%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 141 of 213 shares rose, while 69 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on July 21, 2025 and 26.3% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.42t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 6.27% compared with 6.27% in the previous session and the average of 6.11% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 90.1062| 2.5| 46/1
Energy | 26.6542| 0.6| 27/12
Communication Services | 5.2470| 0.8| 3/2
Financials | 4.1459| 0.0| 15/10
Consumer Discretionary | 3.5688| 0.4| 7/2
Utilities | 3.1886| 0.3| 7/8
Real Estate | 0.8196| 0.2| 11/7
Health Care | -0.5746| -0.9| 1/2
Consumer Staples | -2.0461| -0.2| 5/5
Industrials | -6.6085| -0.2| 14/15
Information Technology | -77.0966| -2.8| 5/5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 24.9700| 4.2| 36.3| 55.6
Wheaton Precious Metals | 16.1800| 4.1| 31.0| 60.9
Canadian Natural Resources | 8.9300| 1.5| -13.5| -4.4
Constellation Software | -9.1190| -1.4| 5.5| 9.1
RBC | -11.3700| -0.6| 149.7| 4.6
Shopify | -62.4900| -4.2| 6.2| 10.1
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange finished Tuesday’s session higher and near record close levels as UBS joined a growing list of firms this week that see the Bank of Canada getting back on the rate cuts path this year, although Rosenberg Research suggests Canada’s equity market doesn’t “screen favorably’ when it comes to the outlook.
The TSX closed up 47.43 points at 27,364,43, within 25 points of the July 17 record close of 27,386.93.
Among sectors, battery metals led advancers, up 2.3%, while base metals rose 2.05%, while energy lagged, falling 0.05%.
Of commodities, gold rose to a five-week high as it looks to challenge record levels on a weak dollar and falling treasury yields.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $37.40 to US$3,443.80 per ounce, the highest since the metal’s record high of US$3,452.80 set on June 13.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower for a third-straight session as supply is climbing while traders wait to see if U.S. President Donald Trump will follow through on his threat to impose tariffs on the country’s trading partners next month.
In its final day as the active contract, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery closed $0.99 to settle at US$66.21 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen down $0.77 to US$68.44.
On interest rates, UBS in a July 21 note said it expects Canada’s central bank to keep monetary policy on hold at its July 30 meeting, but added it sees some downside risk to its view of rates staying on hold through the rest of 2025.
“The economy has performed better than feared although trade policy uncertainty has still weighed on activity and business and consumer expectations.”
The UBS note was published following the release Monday by the BoC of a Business Outlook Survey and a Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for the second quarter.
Rosenberg Research, for its part, published a note breaking down the global equity landscape, evaluating various country fundamentals and valuations, both nominal and adjusted for real interest rates.
According to it, international markets, namely Emerging Markets and parts of Europe, stand out for their more attractive risk/reward profiles.
“Diversifying abroad remains the prudent strategy at this time for global equity investors,” it added.
The research focused on valuations, especially benchmarked against current interest rates, and fundamentals to assess which countries and regions “screen favorably” when it comes to the outlook.
It cited a few notable findings in the results: Emerging Markets being the clear favorites — specifically, Poland and Asia-Pacific ex. Japan, which make up the top four countries in its list, Of the 21 countries on the list, Canada was ranked 18.
“Safe to say that diversifying abroad remains a prudent strategy – something we have been advocating for some time.
Despite U.S. assets receiving the bulk of investors’ attention, large pockets of international stocks serve up attractive fundamentals yet have been broadly ignored.
Emerging Asia and Poland top our stock screen presented above (Canada, Japan, Italy, and the Netherlands bring up the rear).
As such, investors who are sitting on years of outsized gains in the former would be best to crystalize some of those profits and increase ex. U.S. weights in the portfolio,” Rosenberg Research concluded.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for the start of the high-stakes mega cap earnings season kept stocks at all- time highs, with investors also parsing the latest tariff developments.
Bond yields and the dollar fell.
While the S&P 500 barely budged, more than 400 of its shares rose.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” giants halted a nine-day advance, but Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. climbed before their results. D.R. Horton Inc. led a rally in homebuilders.
Kohl’s Corp. surged as much as 105% — before paring gains to 38% — in a move reminiscent of the meme era.
In late hours, Texas Instruments Inc. gave a disappointing forecast.
Big tech’s strength will be on full display over the next few weeks as the group begins unveiling quarterly earnings.
The lion’s share of S&P 500 earnings growth continues to come from beneficiaries of advancements in artificial intelligence.
The Magnificent Seven companies are expected to post a combined 14% rise in second-quarter profits, while earnings for the rest of the US equity benchmark are predicted to be relatively flat, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
“Tech heavyweights remain critical to market health,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“We expect AI- driven firms to continue anchoring tech sector growth.
AI adoption at the corporate level is improving, but the application layer of this technology is only just being tested.”
On the trade front, President Donald Trump unveiled an agreement with the Philippines setting a 19% tariff on the country’s exports.
Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney sought to cool expectations about reaching a deal in the next 10 days but said he’s looking to stabilize the relationship with the US.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for their third round of trade talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions.
Bessent told Fox Business he sees no reason for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to step down.
Meantime, Trump stressed his belief that the Fed’s benchmark rate should be 3 percentage points lower.
Bessent, in the same Oval Office event, said that “based on the way they cut rates last fall, they should be cutting rates now.”
“We expect market volatility to pick up in the lead-up to the August tariff deadline, with threats to Federal Reserve independence and geopolitical uncertainty lingering in the background,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Bank of America Corp. clients were net buyers of US equities in the week ended last Friday, with purchases most pronounced among individual investors, followed by hedge funds.
BofA clients funneled $1.8 billion into US stocks last week, with buying across all size segments, the team led by equity and quantitative strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote Tuesday in research note.
“Is this running of the bulls with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs sustainable?” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“The weight of the technical evidence suggests that breadth remains bullish, and we would welcome ‘healthy’ pullbacks of less than 5% to add to positions.”
What Bloomberg Strategists say… “An ugly start to US equity trading is far from across the board.
The frothier tech and growth stocks are leading declines, but value stocks and defensive sectors are up on the day still.
Coupled with the decline in bond yields, this looks like the market paring a little risk, perhaps ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings on Wednesday.” – Sebastian Boyd, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. accused Chinese state-sponsored hackers of using flaws in its SharePoint document management software in a hacking campaign that has targeted businesses and government agencies around the world.
* OpenAI and Oracle Corp. announced they will develop 4.5 gigawatts of additional US data center capacity in an expanded partnership, furthering a massive plan to power artificial intelligence workloads.
* ASM International NV’s second-quarter orders missed expectations, as some chipmakers’ struggles undermined demand for its semiconductor equipment.
* Hershey Co. is raising prices on its candy due to historically high cocoa costs.
* Lockheed Martin Corp. caught investors off guard with $1.6 billion in charges and a possible tax hit that sent its stock tumbling, the latest setback for the defense giant whose popular F-35 jet faces criticism over cost overruns and delays.
* Northrop Grumman Corp. raised its earnings guidance for the full year after getting a boost from its Sentinel ballistic missile and B-21 bomber programs.
* RTX Corp. lowered its full-year profit outlook as the company digests the impact of tariffs that have roiled the aerospace industry, even as strong demand boosts sales above Wall Street’s expectations.
* General Motors Co. earned $2.53 per share on an adjusted basis, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.33 but short of the $3.06 it made a year ago. GM’s profits also suffered from higher warranty costs and a buildup in inventory of electric vehicles.
* Coca-Cola Co. posted second-quarter sales growth that beat Wall Street expectations as consumers continue to pay higher prices for the company’s soft drinks.
* Philip Morris International Inc.’s shipments of its Zyn nicotine pouches accelerated by less than analysts had expected.
* Synovus Financial Corp., a regional bank in the southeastern US, is weighing options including a potential merger after drawing interest, people familiar with the matter said.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1751
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3532
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 146.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2% to $119,300.11
* Ether fell 2.3% to $3,670.08
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $66.21 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,431.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it is not the same river and he is not the same man. –Heraclitus, c.534 BCE- c.475 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com