July 21th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

July 21, 1798: Napoleon’s forces defeat the Mamluks at the Battle of the Pyramids, bringing Cairo under French control.
July 21, 1861: Battle of Bull Run.
July 21,1933: with investors digesting President Roosevelt’s “New Deal” measures, the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered what was then its ninth-worst daily percentage loss, dropping 7.8% to close the day at a dismal 88.71.

Ernest Hemingway, writer, b. 1899.
Marshall McLuhan, writer, b. 1911.
Isaac Stern, musician, b. 1920.
Cat Stevens, musician, b. 1948.
Robin Williams, comic/actor, b.1952.

‘Superman’ continues to soar at the box office
After years of Marvel movies, audiences are up for a little DC action with the Man of Steel.

Medieval scribe’s slip-up triggers centuries of confusion
Researchers have finally decoded an error in the 12th-century epic, “The Song of Wade.” Apparently, the hero doesn’t battle elves.

Massachusetts man became a millionaire twice in one night
And it was all due to one lucky mistake.

Judge dismisses Trump’s lawsuit against Bob Woodward
The president claimed that Woodward had released audio from their interviews without his consent and sought nearly $50 million in damages.

New pocket-size model of ALS ‘breathes and flows like human tissue’
A stem-cell-based “organ-on-a-chip” model of ALS mimics early biological changes seen in the degenerative disease. Read More.

Scientists discover changes to the polar vortex that are plunging parts of US into deep freeze
When the polar vortex stretches, North America feels the chill. New research reveals some of the stratospheric patterns controlling these cold snaps. Read More.

First video of an earthquake fault cracking has revealed another surprise
A stunning video of the ground cracking during a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Myanmar is revealing new surprises. Read More.

Endurance athletes that carry Neanderthal genes could be held back from reaching their peak
A Neanderthal variant in an enzyme involved in energy production has been linked to ​​a 50% lower probability of achieving elite athletic performance. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

153rd Open Championship
Rory McIlroy lines up but misses a short putt for par on the 11th green.
Photograph: Tom Jenkins

Herd community: Australian Sheep and Wool Show – in pictures
Crocheted lambs made by Sumeyra Ozyurek of Little Cotton Ears
Photograph: Steve Womersley

Beijing, China
People dressed in traditional costumes stand outside the Forbidden City
Photograph: Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 21^st, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
The learn-it-all will always do better than the know-it-all. -Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft, b. 1967.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 27,317.00 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.9%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.0%.
Today, 104 of 213 shares rose, while 107 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.1% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.42t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.27% compared with 6.34% in the previous session and the average of 6.10% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 82.3044| 2.3| 42/6
Information Technology | 6.7599| 0.2| 7/3
Utilities | 6.2065| 0.6| 10/5
Communication Services | 4.9420| 0.8| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 4.3727| 0.4| 3/7
Real Estate | 1.7260| 0.4| 11/8
Health Care | 0.0208| 0.0| 1/1
Consumer Discretionary | -2.6826| -0.3| 3/6
Financials | -22.1823| -0.2| 10/15
Industrials | -24.5736| -0.7| 12/17
Energy | -53.9638| -1.3| 2/37
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 22.1900| 3.9| 3.4| 49.3
Wheaton Precious Metals | 12.2400| 3.2| -15.7| 54.6
Shopify | 12.1700| 0.8| -40.6| 14.9
Constellation Software | -9.4200| -1.4| -31.2| 10.6
Enbridge | -13.2600| -1.4| 8.8| 0.0
Brookfield Corp | -15.4400| -1.7| -57.0| 9.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange returned to winning ways Monday, but only just in the end after hitting record intraday highs and looking like it would re-test last Thursday’s record close earlier in the session as rate cut expectations rebuild in Canada.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed a modest 2.99 points to 27,317.0, having been near 27,446 shortly before midday, briefly giving it a chance of beating the record close of 27,386.93 hit last week.
Among sectors, most were lower, with Energy the biggest loser, down near 1%.
No sector gained near 1%.
Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a small loss, remaining rangebound as strong summer demand counterbalanced rising supply and growth worries.
WTI oil for August delivery closed $0.14 to settle at US$67.20 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down $0.11 to US$69.17.
But gold futures were sharply higher Monday, rising to the highest in a month as the dollar and treasury yields weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $49.50 to US$3,407.80 per ounce, the highest since June 18.
The Bank of Canada released both the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for the second quarter of 2025 revived talk around the outlook for interest rates.
Katherine Judge, Senior Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said the bank’s Q2 surveys for businesses and households showed that trade uncertainty is still weighing on activity, with sentiment still low despite an improvement from the Q1 survey.
Judge noted firms reported they cannot pass on a lot of the cost increases tied to tariffs to consumers due to weak demand, and near-term inflation expectations moved lower for businesses.
This suggests that slack may not be widening, but is persisting, and with inflation expectations well anchored, the BoC should feel comfortable cutting in September, she added.
Meanwhile, Judge also noted, the Canadian survey of consumer expectations showed that job concerns remained elevated in trade exposed sectors, but that worries had diminished from Q1.
Households are reducing spending and increasing savings because of the uncertainty, she said.
Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins Capital, noted worries about tariff pass through and inflation expectations were the reasons the BoC held rates back in June, but he said those reasons look less concerning in these surveys.
“While central bankers probably won’t ease monetary policy next week, there is ample scope for them to resume their cutting cycle later in the year should the economy continue to stagnate.
Yields in Canada are largely unchanged as this survey is unlikely to move the needle for next week’s rate decision.
However, we do expect the central bank to take a dovish tone in its communications, which could see rate cut expectations rebuild,” Mendes added.
According to National Bank Financial economists Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie, when it comes to next week’s BoC meeting, the decision has arguably already been made.
The duo sees the central bank holding steady considering core inflation pressures, and risks.
They noted June’s reported labor market “strength” also doesn’t scream for immediate rate relief.
“Saying that, we’re not embracing the growing view that this easing cycle is over and overall, this BOS [Business Outlook Survey] supports that.
These data suggest that the economy will continue to operate below its potential (at least over coming months) and leaves us even more skeptical of June’s hiring surge.
Ultimately, inflation will be in the driver’s seat but continued and/or growing economic slack is not consistent with persistently above target inflation, even with some tariff effects.
Despite OIS market skepticism, the Bank could be off the sidelines sooner than expected.”
Still, in looking ahead, Claire Fan, Senior Economist at RBC, maintains the BoC faces an “unusually high hurdle” for considering additional rate cuts.
Fan noted the central bank must, given the brewing trade war with the United States, account for increased government support.
This, Fan said, is better suited to address concentrated weakness in trade exposed sectors than the blunt tool of lower interest rates.
RBC’s base case forecast continues to project the BoC will maintain the overnight rate at current levels going forward.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The start of a busy week for Corporate America saw stocks giving up most of their gains, with traders looking for signs of resilience in earnings amid tariff risks.
Treasury yields fell alongside the dollar.
While the S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time, the equity benchmark rose just 0.1%.
Energy shares joined a decline in oil amid lingering worries about crude demand.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps outperformed, with Tesla Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. due to report results this week.
The stakes will again be high as traders look for updates on artificial-intelligence spending.
Nvidia Corp. fell.
Gains in Treasuries were led by longer maturities, with the 30-year yield slipping four basis points to 4.95%.
The greenback dropped against all its developed-world peers.
The yen climbed as Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would carry on as leader even as the ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house election.
Investors will also keep a close eye on tariff headlines.
President Donald Trump may issue more unilateral tariff letters before Aug. 1, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
More trade deals may also be reached before the deadline, she added.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, it is becoming more evident that the Trump Administration is going to be tougher on the tariff issue going forward.
So, it’s important to decide whether this is something the stock market is pricing in right now.
“Earnings season will move into full swing this week, and the guidance will be more important than usual,” he said.
“This guidance is going to have create a very large increase in earnings estimates if the market is going to reach some of the targets that exist on Wall Street right now.”
The S&P 500 is looking at a double-digit increase in the second half of the year, powered by the resilient strength of America’s technology behemoths, according to Wells Fargo Securities’ Christopher Harvey.
“What we’re seeing is the winners continue to win,” Harvey said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance.
“The uber-cap companies have the higher margins, are gaining more market share.
There is a real secular trend in AI that will continue.”
The second-quarter earnings season is off to a ripping start, with consumer strength powering resilient corporate profits.
Yet after hitting a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 is trading around 22 times expected 12-month profits, leaving little room for error.
“While stocks may be due for a breather, we believe the bull market remains intact,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We maintain our June 2026 S&P 500 price target of 6,500 and recommend using volatility as an opportunity to phase into markets.”
Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson advise investors to stay bullish on US stocks, as earnings momentum, positive operating leverage and cash tax savings are under- appreciated tailwinds.
Recent dollar weakness should provide a small tailwind to S&P 500 earnings, partially offsetting the tariff earnings pressure, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin said.
“Although valuations are elevated, a large component of the S&P 500 consists of large cap tech stocks which command higher multiples due to their consistent growth, incredibly strong cash flows and profit margins,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners. “Valuation isn’t a reliable indicator for future market direction.”
The combination of declining inflation continued growth and stable interest rates is a trifecta of positives that supports current stock market valuations, he noted.
“Most of the Magnificent Seven should continue leading the market due to impressive earnings growth, copious levels of cash flow and continued demand for their businesses,” he said.
“The AI tailwinds are in the early innings and are set to benefit the biggest players in tech the most.”
Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte see resilient earnings growth suggesting room for equity positioning to keep rising.
The S&P 500 hasn’t posted a 1% up or down day since late June, and Mark Hackett at Nationwide notes that volatility gauges also remain “suspiciously quiet.”
“This calm is unusual and may reflect both investor fatigue and institutional hesitation to fight the current trend,” he said.
“We’re in a window where calm can quickly turn to complacency, While a break in either direction is possible, current positioning suggests we’d bet on a rally before a drop.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Hackers exploited a security flaw in common Microsoft Corp. software to breach governments, businesses and other organizations across the globe and steal sensitive information, according to officials and cybersecurity researchers.
* Verizon Communications Inc. posted second-quarter revenue that surpassed analysts’ estimates and raised its profit outlook, buoyed by wireless price increases and recent tax legislation.
* Block Inc. rallied as the firm is set to join the S&P 500, a milestone that underscores the growing influence of digital payments and crypto in mainstream finance.
* Domino’s Pizza’s launch of its Parmesan stuffed-crust pizza attracted new customers and boosted the company’s same-store sales, company executives said on its earnings call.
* Opendoor Technologies Inc. soared on Monday, extending its gravity-defying rally from last week, as investors continued to pile into the stock that has found a sudden fandom among retail traders and social-media platforms.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. sank as the company refused to pause all shipments of its Elevidys treatment after three deaths were linked to the company’s gene therapies.
* Elliott Investment Management has built up its stake in Equinix Inc. and is pushing the data center operator to take steps to boost its share price, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* BP Plc, under pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management to improve its performance, appointed the former boss of a building-materials company as its new chairman, replacing Helge Lund.
* Shares of global consumer intelligence platform NIQ Global Intelligence Plc are expected to start trading this week, and their performance could open the door for other private equity- backed companies weighing going public.
* GE Vernova Inc. is acquiring French software company Alteia SAS as the maker of power generation equipment looks to use artificial intelligence for ways to strengthen the electric grid.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.1690
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3484
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 147.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $116,813.69
* Ether fell 0.2% to $3,734.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.86%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.95%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $67.03 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.5% to $3,398.78 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As always,

Carolann
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. –Ernest Hemingway, 1899-1961.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com