July 18th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 18, 1908: The Frogs, an African American theatrical organization, is founded in Harlem.
July 18, 1936: The Spanish Civil War begins as Nationalist forces rise against Spain’s Republican government, sparking a brutal three-year conflict that draws in foreign powers.
On this day in 1968, Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, engineering refugees from Fairchild Semiconductor, established N.M. Electro. It soon changed its name to Intel.
July 18, 1969:  A car driven by Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., plunged off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island near Martha’s Vineyard. His passenger, 28-year-old Mary Jo Kopechne, died. Go to article.

Nelson Mandela, b. 1918.
Hunter S. Thompson, b. 1939.

New bionic knee connects directly with muscles and bone to feel more like the user’s body
A bionic knee that directly attaches to the thigh bone and uses implanted electrodes can make a prosthetic leg feel more like a part of the body, a new study finds. Read More.

600-year-old amethyst ‘worthy of a duke’ found in medieval castle moat in Poland
The amethyst was set in high-quality silver and probably once formed part of a brooch. Read More.

Scientists make ‘magic state’ breakthrough after 20 years — without it, quantum computers can never be truly useful
Scientists demonstrate a process called “magic state distillation” in logical qubits for the first time, meaning we can now build quantum computers that are both error-free and more powerful than supercomputers. Read More.

Behold, ‘The Beast’: Gigantic animal-like plasma plume 13 times wider than Earth hovers over the sun
Astrophotographers have snapped stunning shots of a giant shapeshifting solar prominence, dubbed “The Beast,” which appeared over the sun’s northeastern limb on July 12 and rained impossibly fast fire over our home star.  Read More.

Giant meteor impact may have triggered massive Grand Canyon landslide 56,000 years ago
Researchers have found a link between two geological events in iconic locations of the U.S. Southwest that scientists previously didn’t think had anything to do with each other.

TSA expands security checkpoint lanes
Two groups of passengers will now have the opportunity to enjoy an expedited process through security at the airport.

Dinosaur fossil found underneath parking lot
The phrase “leave no stone unturned” has taken on new meaning for paleontologists at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science.

Stevie Nicks, Lindsey Buckingham stir up Fleetwood Mac reunion hopes
The lyrics the musicians posted on social media seem to suggest that anything is possible.

Lewis Capaldi: Antipsychotic medication ‘changed my life’
The Scottish singer has been taking care of his mental health since having a “breakdown of sorts” at the Glastonbury Festival in 2023.

Famed skydiver and BASE jumper Felix Baumgartner dies at 56
Baumgartner achieved international recognition in 2012 when he performed a jump from 24 miles above the Earth, higher than anyone before him. He died on Thursday in a paragliding accident.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

İzmir, Turkey
Tomatoes left in the sun to dry

Snettisham, Norfolk
Rise and shine. Dawn breaks across Norfolk behind St Mary’s church.’
Photograph: Richard Gibbs

In a new light: an infrared perspective of Australia’s capital
Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Market Closes for July 18^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
The consumer is our boss, quality is our work, and value for money is our goal. –Forrest Edward Mars Sr., 1904-1999.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 27,314.01 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 3.6%.
Today, 111 of 213 shares fell, while 100 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 17, 2025 and 26.1% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.34% compared with 6.26% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Industrials | -36.5482| -1.0| 12/17
Materials | -20.1672| -0.6| 12/36
Financials | -14.3489| -0.2| 13/11
Information Technology | -13.2050| -0.5| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -9.4345| -1.0| 2/7
Communication Services | -7.0552| -1.1| 1/4
Health Care | -1.1093| -1.7| 0/3
Real Estate | -0.1918| 0.0| 6/13
Utilities | 4.8761| 0.5| 10/4
Energy | 10.5991| 0.2| 34/6
Consumer Staples | 13.6689| 1.3| 8/2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -25.6200| -3.6| 71.3| 2.2
Brookfield Corp | -13.6300| -1.5| -19.8| 11.7
Canadian National | -13.1000| -2.4| 66.1| -6.4
Intact Financial | 5.7710| 1.6| 11.6| 16.2
Nutrien | 7.4050| 2.7| -24.1| 28.0
Couche-Tard | 7.7700| 1.9| 107.6| -5.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange slipped more than 70 points Friday afternoon, falling off a day-prior record close.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 72.70 points at 27,314.23, compared with Thursday’s 27,386.34.
Industrials and Information Technology were the biggest decliners, down 4.6% and 1.9%, respectively.
Utilities topped the gainers, rising 2.1%.
Stefane Marion and Matthieu Arseneau, economists at the National Bank of Canada, said in their monthly equity monitor report that in July, Canada was one of only 11 countries in the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index to reach new equity market highs in 2025.
The S&P/TSX has climbed 10.8% year-to-date, hitting a record 27,386.93 on Thursday.
The gains were supported by positive earnings forecasts and an 11% expected growth in earnings per share, the economists said, adding that risks remain, including the threat of new U.S. tariffs and signs of slowing growth.
“Nonetheless, optimism persists around a possible Canada-U.S. trade deal and Ottawa’s efforts to reduce regulatory burdens and boost investment.”
The economists said given this backdrop, they are keeping their asset allocation unchanged after last month’s move to slightly reduce fixed income and increase their position in Canadian equities.
However, their overall outlook remains cautious amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff wars, with the U.S. President reigniting trade tensions by announcing new double-digit tariffs set to begin on Aug. 1, the note added.
Assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen and senior economist Claire Fan at RBC said the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, due Monday, is expected to show early signs of stabilization in business expectations for sales, hiring, and input costs in the second quarter, following sharp declines in the first quarter.
This improvement comes after trade tensions eased.
While Canada was a major focus of U.S. trade complaints in Q1, it was left off the list of countries facing U.S. tariffs in April.
A tariff exemption for trade under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement introduced in March also remains in place, they said.
More broadly, several indicators suggest a stabilizing Canadian economy in Q2.
Job postings have steadied, and small business confidence has continued to recover since a sharp drop in March, they added.
“The survey could highlight a divergence between sectors directly exposed to trade headwinds (such as manufacturing and transportation), which will likely maintain a softer outlook, while other sectors, particularly consumer-facing businesses, that are more positive,” they said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed lower on Friday, surrendering earlier gains that came on strong summer demand and continuing violence in the Middle East.
After trading as high as US$68.96 WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.20 to settle at US$67.34 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$28 to US$69.24.
Gold traded higher midafternoon on Friday as the dollar and treasury yields weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$12.80 to US$3,358.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bond yields fell as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his case for a July rate cut, while data showed consumer expectations for inflation improved.
Stocks wavered amid earnings.
President Donald Trump signed the stablecoins bill in a win for the crypto industry.
Short-dated Treasuries led gains as Waller hinted he would dissent if his colleagues vote to hold rates steady in July.
Bonds also rose as University of Michigan data showed consumers expect prices to increase at an annual rate of 4.4% over the next year, down from 5% in the prior month.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The dollar edged lower, but notched an advance for the week.
“Investors have something to cheer about with signs of improved inflation expectations,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“According to this report, the trajectory looks encouraging.”
Meantime, Waller said he sees no sign that inflation expectations are on the rise, which allows the Fed to move forward with rate cuts.
He also restated the case the Fed should cut when policymakers gather later this month, given data suggesting the US labor market is “on the edge.”
“We think he is correct. The Fed’s role is to think ahead, not look behind, which is what Waller is doing concerning the slowing employment situation,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“Nonetheless a July cut won’t happen.”
Money markets still assign near-zero odds of a cut on July 30.
They price in about 45 basis points of easing by year-end, down from more than 65 basis points at the start of the month.
US consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in early July as expectations about the economy continued to improve.
The preliminary July sentiment index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 a month earlier, according to University of Michigan data released Friday.
The report offered further relief after data this week showed US retail sales rebounded in June in a broad advance, tempering some concerns about a retrenchment in consumer spending.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, macroeconomic data remains broadly supportive, and the recent strength in markets has been impressive, though perhaps even more noteworthy is the prevailing sense of calm amid a busy and often volatile news cycle.
“Investors have responded positively to robust economic indicators and earnings reports that highlight continued resilience in US consumer spending,” he said.
“The rest of earnings season will be a key test given elevated valuations and expectations, though with current momentum and sentiment, the path of least resistance is higher.”
At Wolfe Research, Chris Senyek says economic data releases this week have been consistent with his view that the US economy is coming in better than consensus expects.
“However, we continue to be worried about the risk of inflation remaining stickier than expected in the back half of 2025,” Senyek noted.
The stock market’s relatively modest gains this week despite mostly solid economic data and earnings could be a preview for much of the rest of the year, according to Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“While tariff uncertainty continues, the markets may be learning to live with it, to a certain extent,” he said.
“But with a decisive resolution unlikely in the near term and the Fed holding the line on rate cuts, price action at the index level could remain congested.”
Trump is readying plans for industry-specific tariffs to kick in alongside his country-by-country duties in two weeks, ramping up his push to reshape the US’s standing in the global trading system by penalizing purchases from abroad.
Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any deal with the European Union, the Financial Times reported.
Meantime, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the two nations could reach a “good” trade deal while signaling the process may take more time.
“The lack of any clear damage from the tariffs, solid  earnings results, a firm job market, and consumers who keep spending are supporting the high valuations,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Food and Drug Administration plans to ask Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. to pause shipments of its Elevidys treatment after three deaths were linked to the company’s gene therapies, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Humana Inc. lost a lawsuit seeking to reverse cuts to its Medicare bonus payments, a blow for the insurer that had hoped the court would restore billions in revenue.
* American Express Co.’s expenses grew in the second quarter as the firm made risk-management investments for its affluent consumers, who continued to spend amid economic uncertainty.
* Netflix Inc. beat expectations for second-quarter results and continues to trounce rival media companies, yet the shares slipped on Friday as investors took a pause after the stock has nearly doubled over the past year.
* 3M Co. raised its profit forecast and beat Wall Street’s estimates for the second quarter as Chief Executive Officer William Brown’s effort to reinvigorate the company gained momentum.
* Chevron Corp. has prevailed in a 20-month fight to buy Hess Corp. for $53 billion, overcoming a challenge by arch rival Exxon Mobil Corp. that was unprecedented in the modern history of Big Oil.
* SLB, the world’s largest oil-services provider, sees resiliency in the industry and remains constructive about the second half of 2025 despite uncertainties in customer demand.
* Interactive Brokers Group Inc. reported total net interest income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Charles Schwab Corp. reported earnings per share that topped estimates as the firm said client assets hit a new record and trading revenue rose.
* Ally Financial Inc. left most of its forecast unchanged despite strong second-quarter consumer auto-loan originations and earnings.
* Meta Platforms Inc. said it won’t sign the code of practice for Europe’s new set of laws governing artificial intelligence, calling the guidelines to help companies follow the AI Act overreach.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1622
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3413
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 148.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $117,433.01
* Ether rose 3.9% to $3,554.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.87%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined one basis point to m5.00%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $67.38 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,348.06 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone. 🔆

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You will never do anything in this world without courage.  It is the greatest quality of the mind next to honor. –Aristotle, 384 BCE-322 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com