July 11th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 11, 1302: Battle of the Golden Spurs: Flemish town militias defeat French cavalry near Kortrijk, a shock victory that strengthens Flemish identity and is still commemorated today.
July 11, 1979: The abandoned U.S. space station Skylab returned to Earth, burning up in the atmosphere and showering debris over the Indian Ocean and Australia.  Go to article.
On this day in 1985, Coca-Cola announced the return of Coke Classic after the company had tried displacing the old formula with New Coke. It was such a stunning development that ABC’s Peter Jennings interrupted General Hospital with the news flash.

John Constable, artist, b. 1776.
E.B. White, writer, b. 1899.
Suzanne Vega, singer/songwriter, b. 1959.

Earth just had a freakishly short day, but the fastest day of the year is yet to come
July 9 was unusually short thanks to changes in how fast the Earth is spinning. But two other days this summer are expected to be even shorter. Read More.

Scientists discover that mysterious giant structures beneath the North Sea seemingly defy what we know about geology
Giant mounds of sand discovered beneath the North Sea off Norway may scramble what we know about a key geological process.

1,600-year-old tomb of Maya city’s first ruler unearthed in Belize
Archaeologists have discovered the tomb of the Maya king who founded the city of Caracol in what is now Belize. Read More.

‘We’re bringing back avian dinosaurs’: De-extinction company claims it will resurrect the giant moa in next 10 years
The South Island giant moa could be the next species that biotech company Colossal “brings back” from extinction — but experts say the result will not and “cannot be” a moa. Read More.

Daytime Emmy nominations revealed
Several new categories were added, including outstanding culinary cultural series, outstanding emerging talent in a daytime drama series and outstanding regional content in a daytime genre.

Gone, but not forgotten
A piece of the illegally felled Sycamore Gap tree in the UK is going on display — and you can even hug it.

The concert that showed we cared 
Nearly 40 years later, the effects of “Live Aid” are still being felt. The CNN Original Series, “Live Aid: When Rock ’n’ Roll Took on the World,” premieres at 9 p.m. ET/PT on July 13.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Harrogate, UK
Competitors wait to enter the main arena on the final day of the 166th Great Yorkshire show. The four-day event celebrates agriculture, food, farming and the countryside
Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

A wagtail catches up with the day’s tennis action on the court at the Wimbledon Championships, London, UK
Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Where the buffalo roam … a bison stops traffic in Yellowstone national park, Wyoming, US
Photograph: Kaylee Greenlee/Reuters
Market Closes for July 11^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Iron rusts from disuse; stagnant water loses its purity and in cold weather becomes frozen; even so does inaction sap the vigor of the mind. – Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 27,023.25 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.6%.
Enghouse Systems Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 4.1%.
Today, 101 of 213 shares fell, while 106 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended May 23
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 10, 2025 and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.38t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.81% compared with 5.77% in the previous session and the average of 6.25% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | -51.0102| -1.9| 1/9
Financials | -49.8160| -0.6| 6/18
Industrials | -18.7748| -0.5| 7/21
Consumer Staples | -10.0769| -1.0| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2191| -0.3| 2/7
Health Care | -0.6788| -1.0| 1/2
Communication Services | -0.0543| 0.0| 1/4
Utilities | 0.5174| 0.1| 5/8
Real Estate | 0.9876| 0.2| 11/7
Materials | 33.7235| 0.9| 35/12
Energy | 39.3541| 0.9| 35/5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell off a record high on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impost 35% tariffs on some Canadian imports on Aug.1 offset a better than expected jobs report.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 59.05 points, finishing the week at 27,023.25.
Sectors were mixed with Information Technology and Financial leading the decliners, down 5.2% and 2.8%, respectively.
Energy topped the list, rising 3.6%.
Canadian employment increased by 83,000, or 0.4%, month-over-month, in June, and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 6.9%, according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), while the consensus estimate expected little job growth and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.1%.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said there are a few possibilities why employers are hiring so much despite all the trade uncertainty.
One idea is that companies are rushing to produce goods before tariffs take full effect.
But that doesn’t explain why most of the job growth is happening in the service sector, he said.
Another explanation is that Canada’s domestic economy is doing better than its trade-related sectors.
Many services are not tied to international trade, so are less affected by tariffs, Holt added.
It’s also possible that Canadians are simply spending more at home.
Restaurant activity is strong, and spending at bars and restaurants suggests people are choosing staycations instead of traveling to the United States for March break or summer holidays, keeping that money, and jobs, in Canada, he said.
National Bank economists Matthieu Arseneau and Kyle Dahms said despite the good news, some caution is needed.
The LFS, which tracks employment, may be overstating job gains as it uses a 12-month average to estimate the number of non-permanent residents.
To get a clearer picture, it is key to monitor another report called the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, which is based on employer records.
“While signs of stabilization are welcome, it remains that tariff-related uncertainty contributed to a deterioration in the labour market during the first half of the year,” the economists said, adding that “all in all, this morning’s report makes an interest rate cut at the end of July unlikely.”
Andrew Hencic, head of TD Economics, said this is a week of two opposite signals.
On one hand, the threat of new tariffs is growing, with a key deadline on Aug. 1.
On the other, Canada’s labor market has shown signs of strength, rebounding after earlier uncertainty.
That said, inflation remains the main focus, with the next Consumer Price Index report due next week, he added.
“We expect the June CPI report to show inflation having strengthened, with both goods and services price pressures having heated up relative to May. But at this juncture, the uptick is unlikely to unnerve policymakers, particularly with inflation expectations remaining well anchored,” Hencic said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Friday as traders look to strong summer demand, even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned supply is outstripping demand.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery was last seen up $1.88 to settle at US$68.45 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$1.66 to US$70.30.
Gold traded higher late afternoon on Friday, rising for a third day despite a stronger dollar as safe-haven buying continues amid U.S.
President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff polices.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$45.70 to US$3,371.40 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from all-time highs as Donald Trump intensified his trade offensive, sending the dollar to its best week since February.
Concerns about the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs weighed on Treasuries, while oil traders braced for US efforts to crimp Russian energy exports.
Following a rally that drove the S&P 500 to its fifth record in nine trading days, equity bulls took a breather.
While almost 400 shares in the benchmark retreated, gains in most mega caps pushed the market away from session lows.
Kraft Heinz Co. climbed on news reports that the company is preparing to break itself up.
The six biggest US banks are set to report earnings next week, with analysts predicting trading-revenue increases.
Trump threatened a 35% tariff on some Canadian goods and raised the prospect of increasing levies on most other countries, ramping up his trade rhetoric.
The US president told NBC News he’s also eyeing blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on most trading partners.
The current global baseline minimum tariff rate for nearly all US trading partners is 10%.
“The stock market is looking lower due to President Trump’s more hawkish stance on tariffs,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“With the market overbought and very expensive, the market is getting ripe for some sort of a pullback.”
Longer-dated Treasuries led declines Friday, with the bond market seeing a second week of losses.
The greenback rose against most major currencies. Bitcoin topped $118,000 for the first time.
While negative trade headlines and tariff threats may multiply in the coming weeks, US trade policy will likely move toward greater stability in the second half of the year, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Our base case is that the effective US tariff rate will land near 15% by year-end, slowing the US economy over the next six months but not causing a recession,” she said.
“Many of the most heavily weighted US equities in the S&P 500 are fairly insulated from tariff risk, in our view, and we think the index can climb to 6,500 by June next year despite periodic volatility.”
The gauge closed at 6,259.75 on Friday.
Investors are counting on US stocks to rally on the back of a robust earnings season, before the market loses steam toward year-end, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
Client feedback suggests “no one” is worried about the economy or equity valuations, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
Meantime, Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Beata Manthey said gins in global equities will slow over the coming 12 months, adding that earnings expectations appear relatively optimistic given the “highly uncertain” outlook.
Wall Street expects very little from S&P 500 companies this earnings season, with analysts projecting S&P 500 profits to rise 2.8% year over year — the slowest growth rate since 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
“We believe second quarter earnings will be good, but not as good as first quarter,” said Michael Landsberg at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management.
“Much of the second quarter was marked with tariff and trade issues and that may have caused some dislocations in earnings for certain industries as their customers may have been in a holding pattern.”
That said, Landsberg noted that he believes expectations “are a bit low” for S&P 500 earnings.
“While we do acknowledge the volatility and the unknown picture the tariffs have brought, we think earnings will be better overall than current projections. This low bar, if cleared, should be a positive for market performance,” he added.
While bulls and bears may debate the rally’s sustainability, the recent steadying of corporate profit estimates suggests the earnings season could serve as the ultimate factor in determining whether stocks can extend gains or transition into a more protracted, choppy consolidation phase,” according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“What is clear, however, is that bears are on their heels and are hesitant following a barrage of whipsaws this year,” he noted.
Historically, when the S&P 500 has surged more than 20% in two months or less — as it did in the second quarter — it has consistently been higher a year later in all 10 prior instances, with an average gain greater than 15%, Hackett said.
Meantime, volatility has collapsed, with the VIX falling below 16 earlier this week – while finishing slightly above that mark on Friday.
“Wall Street strategists continue to capitulate on their bearish shift from April, with several upgrades this week to year-end price targets,” he added.
“Sentiment and positioning are no longer pessimistic, though there are few signs of complacency, and retail and institutional buying show no signs of fading.”
Sellers are growing scarce in the US stock market, a potentially ominous sign of overconfidence.
When stocks do decline, there appears to be little conviction behind the moves: Trading volume for stocks that are falling has accounted for just 42% of total turnover on US exchanges over the past month, on average.
That’s the least since 2020, according to data compiled by Thrasher Analytics.
The phenomenon is a signal that investors may have grown overly exuberant during the market’s blistering rebound, said Andrew Thrasher, the firm’s co-founder.
It has preceded past pullbacks in stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping at least 5% in the last three instances, which occurred in 2020, 2019 and 2016, Thrasher’s data showed.
Volatility in the Treasuries market also dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a measure of expected fluctuations in yields, hitting its lowest level since January 2022.
Trader attention will shift next week to inflation, with the June consumer price index due Tuesday.
At Morgan Stanley, economists led by Michael Gapen said there should be more evidence of tariff pass-through, but the overall push remains mild with some heavily tariffed goods still showing weakness.
They forecast a more meaningful tariff-related acceleration in July and August.
“It’s the numbers from August and beyond – when the full schedule of reciprocal tariffs apply – that will be the ultimate litmus test for the inflation complex,”  said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Strategists at RBC Capital Markets pushed back their forecast for the Federal Reserve to resume easing to December from September, saying policymakers need more time to assess inflation and labor market conditions.
“‘Wait-and-see’ mode is only going to be broken by some evidence that tariff-related inflation has topped out and remains relatively contained (i.e. not spilling over into non-tariffed goods or services or impacting longer-run inflation expectations), and some further softening in labor markets,”
Blake Gwinn and Izaac Brook wrote in a note Friday.
“Neither one of these is likely to be enough on its own.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Investigators of the fatal Air India crash last month have found no evidence so far that would require them to take actions over the Boeing Co. 787 aircraft or the GE engines powering it.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. has told financial-technology companies that it will start charging fees amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars for access to their customers’ bank account information – a move that threatens to upend the industry’s business models.
* Legendary Entertainment LLC, the independent film and TV studio behind the Dune trilogy and A Minecraft Movie, is considering a takeover of Lionsgate Studios Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.
* AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. jumped after Wedbush upgraded the movie-theater operator to outperform, saying the company “is poised to benefit from a more consistent release slate over the next several quarters.”
* Capricor Therapeutics Inc. tumbled after US regulators rejected the company’s treatment for a deadly muscle disorder.
* Levi Strauss & Co. climbed after raising its revenue outlook, with the maker of 501 jeans expecting sales growth to outweigh the effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
* Texas Instruments Inc. was upgraded to buy at TD Cowen, which said the chipmaker is uniquely positioned as industry cycle improves.
* Tesla Inc. will open its first showroom in India on Tuesday and begin deliveries as early as next month, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Elon Musk-led electric vehicle maker looks to tap potential demand in the third-largest automobile market to counter slowing sales elsewhere.
* A group of Microsoft Corp. investors is pressuring the company to assess how effectively it identifies customers who misuse its artificial intelligence tools, a push that follows reports detailing
* Delta Air Lines Inc. has been cannibalizing new Airbus SE jets in Europe by stripping off their engines and using them to get grounded planes in the US back into service, as it seeks to overcome a shortage and avoid aircraft import tariffs.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. is tapping oil inventories stashed in US emergency reserves after the startup of a new Chevron Corp. well in the Gulf of Mexico contributed to quality issues in crude supplies coming from the region.
* BASF SE warned that earnings will come in lower than previously expected this year as US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties crimp demand.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1688
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3498
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 147.37 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $118,138.45
* Ether rose 6.6% to $3,007.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.42%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.1% to $68.65 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,356.55 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Live out your imagination, not your history. –Stephen Covey, 1932-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com