January 18th, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Wednesday.

January 18, 1788: The first English settlers arrived in Australia’s Botany Bay to establish a penal colony.  Go to article » 

Netflix announced all of its new movies for 2023.

Lisa Marie Presley’s memorial to be held at Graceland.  A memorial has been planned at Graceland for Lisa Marie Presley, the only child of Elvis. The family’s estate said the public is invited to attend.

Doctors risked their own lives to remove a live grenade from a Ukrainian soldier’s chest:  Ukrainian military doctors have successfully completed a rare and dangerous operation — removing an unexploded grenade from a patient’s chest, according to senior Ukrainian officials.  On Jan. 9, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s deputy minister of defense, posted an X-ray image on Facebook showing the unexploded ordnance lodged inside the chest of a Ukrainian soldier.  Full Story: Live Science (1/17)

French nun Sister André, the world’s oldest known person, died on Tuesday in the southern city of Toulon, France, her spokesperson announced. She was 118. Born as Lucile Randon on February 11, 1904, Sister André dedicated most of her life to religious service and was the oldest nun to ever live, according to the Guinness World Records.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

View finder
‘The famous secret doorway to the hidden canals of Bologna, Italy. Taken on a wintery afternoon in the early days of 2023 while exploring this beautiful historic city. The hatch is weighed down in padlocks symbolising eternal love from couples all over the world.’
Photograph: Beth Timpson

Golden opportunity
‘Driving to North Queensferry near Edinburgh to watch the sunset. This view exceeded the views of the destination.’
Photograph: Polonez

Storm brewing
‘Rainy skies closing in on a local fisherman’s boat on Bazaruto Island, Mozambique.’
Photograph: Terry Dunne
Market Closes for January 18^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1956: After more than a half-century as a private company, the Ford Motor Co. went public when the Ford Foundation sold 10.2 million shares at $64.50.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 20,376.23 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest loss since Jan. 5 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.0%.
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 16.7%.
Today, 150 of 236 shares fell, while 82 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index declined 4.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8.3% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 14% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.8% in the past 5 days and rose 4.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 13.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.25t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.20% compared with 13.64% in the previous session and the average of 13.26% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -33.0423| -0.5| 10/18
Energy | -25.4482| -0.7| 8/31
Industrials | -21.1731| -0.8| 8/18
Consumer Discretionary | -6.0506| -0.8| 5/10
Consumer Staples | -4.6338| -0.5| 1/10
Communication Services | -4.6234| -0.5| 1/5
Utilities | -3.3711| -0.4| 5/11
Health Care | -1.0939| -1.4| 1/6
Information Technology | -0.7295| -0.1| 9/5
Real Estate | -0.6978| -0.1| 7/15
Materials | 19.6284| 0.8| 27/21
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -11.5200| -1.0| 8.3| 1.6
Canadian Pacific | -10.6600| -1.6| 39.5| 4.7
RBC | -7.0170| -0.5| 72.4| 5.7
Brookfield Corp | 2.9580| 0.6| -30.0| 12.9
Franco-Nevada | 4.9090| 2.0| 23.4| 5.1
Nutrien | 8.3310| 2.3| 16.7| 5.7
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — US stocks ended the day just off session lows after weak economic data rekindled concern over the outlook for growth and corporate earnings.
Treasuries rallied, while the dollar rebounded on deteriorating risk sentiment.
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the worst decline in a month, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 snap a seven-day rally, after reversing gains of more than 1%.
Earlier, stocks rallied as Treasury yields fell across the curve on bets weak data would prompt the Federal Reserve to downshift its tightening policy.
Two Fed officials, however, repeated calls for more hikes even after further signs the economy was softening and inflation cooling.
Growth in producer prices slid more than expected last month, and the drop in retail sales exceeded estimates, according to reports released Wednesday.
Meanwhile, business equipment production slumped, with a decline in factory output wrapping up the weakest quarter for manufacturing since the onset of the pandemic.
A consumer losing steam and business investment falling heightened concern the economy may be moving closer to recession.
In corporate news, Microsoft Corp. said it plans to cut 10,000 jobs, taking steps to cope with an increasingly bleak outlook.
Bank of America Corp. started telling executives to pause hiring except for the most vital positions.
Crypto firm Genesis Global Capital is said to be laying the groundwork for a bankruptcy filing.
“While risk assets have had a positive start to 2023, with investors encouraged by signs of fading inflation and a swift reopening in China, it remains possible that the rally is a ‘head fake,’ and that economic data will ultimately disappoint,”  Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth
Management, wrote. “The lagged effect of higher rates could represent a greater drag on growth than expected.”
Treasuries rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield dropping almost 18 basis points to 3.37% in afternoon trading.
Money markets boosted bets on policy easing, betting the Fed rate will peak just below 4.9%, compared with the current band of 4.25% to 4.5%.
While markets price in a step down in the rate-hiking cycle, two closely followed Fed hawks repeated calls for more increases.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy is “almost” in restrictive territory but not quite.
Policy has to stay on the “tighter side in 2023,” Bullard said in an online Wall Street Journal interview, noting that he penciled in a forecast for a rate range of 5.25% to 5.5% by the end of this year in the Fed’s dot plot of projections.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with The Associated Press published Wednesday that the Fed needs “keep going” but didn’t say how big a rate increase she favored when officials meet Jan. 31-Feb. 1. Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker repeated his view of lifting interest rates in quarter-point increments “going forward.”
The survey in the latest Fed’s Beige Book indicated the pace of price increases had slowed in many districts and price growth was expected to moderate further in the year ahead.
“We expect 2023 to slowly see a shift of the market worrying about inflation to worrying about the economy, which is more of a ‘hard landing’ narrative,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician for BTIG. “Should we close lower today, and should tech/growth underperform despite the meaningful move lower in nominal and real rates, we could be in the early innings of the handoff from the Fed to the economy.”

The yen dropped as much as 2.6% against the dollar after the Bank of Japan doubled down on defending their stimulus, defying intense market speculation.
The currency later traded down 0.5%.
Key events this week:
* US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed index, Thursday
* ECB account of its December policy meeting and President Christine Lagarde on a panel in Davos, Thursday
* Fed speakers include Susan Collins and John Williams, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* US existing home sales, Friday
* IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva and ECB’s Lagarde speak in Davos, Friday
Here are some of the main market moves:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0790
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2338
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 128.88 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $20,722.46
* Ether fell 3.8% to $1,520.25
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 18 basis points to 3.37%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.02%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 3.31%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $79.22 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,905.50 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson, Isabelle Lee, Srinivasan Sivabalan and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

The superior man seeks what is right; the inferior one, what is profitable. –Confucius, c. 551 BCE-c. 479 BCE

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com