January 17, 2014 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Ben Franklin was born on this day in 1706.  Around 1730, while he was in his mid-20s, he developed his own self-improvement program, listing 13 virtues that he felt were an important guide for living.  They are:  Temperance, Silence, Order, Resolution, Frugality, Industry, Sincerity, Justice, Moderation, Cleanliness, Tranquility, Chastity, Humility.  Mastering all these virtues at once was “a task of more difficulty than I had imagined,” so he decided to tackle them one at a time.  For most of his life he kept a small journal with a separate page for each virtue, evaluating himself regarding each one daily.  He also focused on one virtue per week, four times per year.  In one edition of Poor Richard’s Almanac, he advised “Be temperate in eating, wine, girls, and cloth, or the Gout will seize your and plague you both.”

So how virtuous was Ben?  Franklin was known to relish his food, womanize, and sometimes dress to impress people.  His food and wine-drinking habits led him to be plagued with the gout for much of his life.  To which he might say, “Search others for their virtues, thy self for thy vices.”  –from Cosmo Doogood’s Urban Almanac.

Photos of the day

A Tribal Tiwa woman participates in a community fishing event as part of Jonbeel festival near Jagiroad, east of Gauhati, India. Tribal communities like Tiwa, Karbi, Khasi, and Jaintia from nearby hills participate in large numbers in the festival that signifies harmony and brotherhood amongst various tribes and communities. Anupam Nath/AP

A couple stand at Lisbon, Portugal’s Portas do Sol ‘Sun Gates’ viewpoint as a ferry crosses the Tagus river during a rainy winter’s day. The area is a popular tourist spot where people can enjoy the view over the old Alfama neighborhood and the river. Francisco Seco/AP

Market Closes for January 17^th, 2014

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose a fourth day, extending a two-year high, as raw-material producers rallied with higher commodity prices on better-than-projected U.S. housing data.

Torex Gold Resources Inc. and Kinross Gold Corp. gained at least 7.4 percent as gold erased a weekly loss. Pengrowth Energy Corp. rallied 6.4 percent as oil rose to a two-week high. Copper Mountain Mining Corp. added 4.8 percent as copper rose in New York.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 56.63 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,888.21 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark equity gauge has gained 2 percent this year.

“The TSX is based on gold, and gold is popping today,” said Kevin Headland, a fund manager with Manulife Asset Management Ltd., on the phone from Toronto. The firm manages about C$265 billion ($241.6 billion). “I’m not expecting a crazy rally, but it seems we’re turning a corner.”

Raw-materials stocks rose 1.7 percent as a group, the most in the S&P/TSX, as seven of 10 industries advanced. Trading volume was 30 percent above the 30-day average. Of the top 10 advancers in the benchmark equity gauge today, eight were mining stocks including six gold producers.

U.S. industrial production rose for a fifth month in December, capping the strongest quarter since 2010 and indicating manufacturing is helping propel the economy. Output at factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.3 percent after a revised 1 percent increase in November, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today in Washington.

The pace of U.S. home construction dropped less than forecast in December. Housing starts fell 9.8 percent to a  999,000 annualized rate following November’s revised 1.11 million pace, which was the highest since November 2007, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median estimate of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 985,000.

Torex Gold jumped 10 percent to C$1.30 and B2Gold Corp. rallied 8.3 percent to C$2.74. Kinross Gold rose 7.4 percent to C$5.22 as the price of gold climbed 0.9 percent to settle at $1,251.90. The S&P/TSX Gold Index gained 4.1 percent, closing at the highest level in more than two months.

Gold gained 0.4 percent this week for a fourth straight advance, the longest weekly streak of gains since August.

Gold traders and analysts are bullish on speculation physical demand will increase. The U.S. Mint has sold 69,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in January, compared with 56,000 ounces for all of December and the most since 70,000 ounces sold in May, according to data from the Mint.

Silver Standard Resources Inc. advanced 5.5 percent to C$8.97 and Silver Wheaton Corp. rose 2.7 percent to C$24.49 as silver prices rallied 1.2 percent.

Pengrowth Energy added 6.4 percent to C$7.17, the highest close in 16 months, after Aaron Bilkoski, analyst at TD Securities, raised his rating for the stock to buy from hold.  Pengrowth has seven buys, nine holds and four sells, data collected by Bloomberg show.

Bankers Petroleum Ltd. climbed 2.7 percent to C$4.61 and Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. rose 3.5 percent to C$4.76. Crude for February delivery rose 0.4 percent to $94.37 in New York, the most in two weeks.

Copper Mountain Mining rose 4.8 percent to C$1.75. Copper posted a 0.5 percent weekly increase, the first in three weeks, on speculation demand will increase as the U.S. economy recovers.

USA

By Nick Taborek

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell for the week, after touching an all-time high, as weaker-than- estimated earnings at companies from Citigroup Inc. to CSX Corp. offset an improving outlook for the global economy.

Citigroup and CSX dropped at least 4.4 percent as quarterly results missed analysts’ estimates. Best Buy Co. sank 35 percent after price cuts failed to draw as many holiday shoppers as expected. American Express Co. rallied 2.7 percent as fourth- quarter profit doubled. Beam Inc. jumped 24 percent after Suntory Holdings Ltd. said it will acquire the spirits maker in a $16 billion deal.

The S&P 500 declined 0.2 percent to 1,838.70 for the five- day period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 21.51 points, or 0.1 percent, to 16,458.56 for the week.

“A period of consolidation is in order,” Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said in a phone interview from Minneapolis. He helps oversee $112 billion. “We’re in a sideways trending market. Earnings are front and center and to that end I think it’s still too early to have a good read on fourth-quarter results.”

Twenty-eight companies in the S&P 500 including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. reported quarterly earnings during the week. Out of the 52 companies in the gauge that have posted fourth-quarter results so far, 62 percent have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates, and 63 percent have topped revenue projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Per-share profit for companies in the benchmark probably climbed 6 percent in the fourth quarter, while sales increased 2 percent, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Equities also fell during the week amid concern over valuations. The S&P 500 trades at 15.6 times the estimated earnings of its members, near the highest level since 2009 and more than the five-year average multiple of 14.1, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Three rounds of Federal Reserve monetary stimulus helped the S&P 500 rise 172 percent from a 12-year low in 2009. The benchmark index rallied 30 percent last year, the most since 1997.

“We’re asking our clients to rein in their expectations for stock market returns,” Michael Binger, who helps oversee $450 million as senior portfolio manager for Gradient Investments in Arden Hills, Minnesota, said in a phone interview. “This is going to be a more normalized year for stock returns, and by normalized we mean somewhere between five and 10 percent. This year we think that return is going to be driven by earnings growth, not multiple expansion.”

The S&P 500 touched a record on Jan. 15 as the World Bank said it sees improvement in the euro-zone helping the world economy expand 3.2 percent this year, compared with a June projection of 3 percent. Data during the week showed U.S. retail sales rose in December while New York-area manufacturing grew more than forecast.

The Federal Reserve in its Beige Book business survey said that “moderate” growth across most of the country last month was buoyed by gains in holiday spending by consumers, an improving labor market and strength in manufacturing.

“The markets are taking all of this in stride with only minimal declines because in reality the reasons for optimism for the overall economy continue,” Anastasia Amoroso, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, which oversees about $400 billion, said in a phone interview. “We’ve managed to make this shift from an economy that’s been on life support to an economy that is in a self-sustaining expansion.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, advanced 2.5 percent for the week to 12.44. The gauge has fallen 9.3 percent this year.

Six of 10 main S&P 500 groups retreated for the week, with consumer-discretionary and energy companies dropping at least 1.1 percent to lead declines. Nike Inc. lost 4.6 percent to $73.39 for the worst performance in the Dow.

Best Buy plunged 35 percent, the most since 2000, to $24.43 after U.S. same-store sales fell in the holiday shopping season.

Chief Executive Officer Hubert Joly, in a bid to stop customers from defecting to online rivals such as Amazon.com Inc., has piled on discounts and made permanent a policy of matching competitors’ prices to cut down on the practice known as “showrooming,” when shoppers use Best Buy stores to scout products they later buy online elsewhere.

J.C. Penney Co. fell 11 percent to $6.52 after saying it will close 33 stores and eliminate about 2,000 jobs to help save $65 million a year. The struggling department store-chain is unlikely to recover and may have to dilute shareholders by raising more capital this year, Craig-Hallum Capital Group Ltd. analyst Alex Fuhrman said in a note to clients.

CSX tumbled 5.7 percent to $27.23. The biggest railroad in the eastern U.S. posted profit that trailed analysts’ estimates for the first time in eight quarters as coal shipments declined amid a shift to natural gas.

Citigroup slid 4.5 percent to $52.27 as a slump in bond trading contributed to fourth-quarter results that missed Wall Street estimates. Earnings were marred by a 15 percent drop in fixed-income revenue excluding accounting charges, with adjusted profit down 8 percent in securities and banking, and 16 percent in global consumer banking, Citigroup said.

Financial companies in the S&P 500 lost 0.5 percent for the week, as Goldman Sachs declined 1.2 percent to $176.28 and JPMorgan Chase & Co. retreated 0.7 percent to $58.11.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. rose 4.4 percent to $82.26. The second-biggest U.S. regional bank posted fourth- quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as the lender trimmed expenses and set aside less money for soured loans.

American Express, the biggest credit-card issuer by purchases, advanced 2.7 percent to a record $90.97. A pickup in household wealth and consumer confidence propelled card purchases, boosting fourth-quarter net income to $1.3 billion from $637 million a year earlier.  Visa Inc., the world’s biggest bank-card network, climbed 5 percent to $232.18 for the largest advance in the Dow.

Beam jumped 24 percent to $83.34. Suntory, the Japanese whiskey and beer maker, is seeking to boost overseas growth by gaining brands such as Maker’s Mark whiskey, Jim Beam and Canadian Club liquor. The deal, once completed, will create the world’s third-largest premium spirits company.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

My work will be finished if I succeed in carrying conviction to the human family,

that every man or woman, however weak in body,

is the guardian of his or her self-respect and liberty, and that this defence prevails,

though the world be against the against the individual resister.

Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948

As ever,

Carolann

Success isn’t permanent, and failure isn’t fatal.

-Mike Ditka, 1939-

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7