February 9, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
February 9, 1986: Halley’s Comet last appeared in the inner Solar System.
On Feb. 9, 1943, the World War II battle of Guadalcanal in the southwest Pacific ended with an American victory over Japanese forces. Go to article » 

Carole King, songwriter, b. 1942.
Alice Walker, b. 1944.

Woodpeckers stash 700 pounds of acorns inside walls of home:  See the massive trove of acorns discovered by a pest control technician on a routine call

Firefall at Yosemite: You’ll need a reservation if you want to see this fiery spectacle at California’s Yosemite National Park.

Extreme earners are not extremely smart.

Physicists want to use gravitational waves to ‘see’ the beginning of time.  Ripples in space-time known as gravitational waves could help reveal the secrets at the dawn of time, just moments after the Big Bang, new research suggests.   Ripples in space-time known as gravitational waves could help reveal the secrets at the dawn of time, just moments after the Big Bang, new research suggests.
And physicists say they can learn more about these primeval gravitational waves using nuclear fusion reactors here on Earth. Full Story: Live Science (2/8)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Liverpool, UK
Thousands of pieces of coal are suspended from the ceiling at Liverpool Cathedral as part of an installation called Coalescence, created by the artist Paul Cocksedge. The installation, which runs until 12 March, is a visual representation of the amount of coal required to power a single lightbulb for a year
Photograph: Gareth Jones

Florence, Italy
Scaffolding in the Baptistery of San Giovanni, one of the city’s oldest churches, at the start of a six-year restoration project on mosaics created in about 1225
Photograph: Andrew Medichini/AP

Longnan, China
Snow covers terraced fields and houses in China’s north-western Gansu province
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 9^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1966, the bull market peaked, buoyed by defense spending and rising inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 995.15—a level it didn’t reach again until Oct.11, 1982. For nearly 17 years stocks went nowhere.  Today, the Dow closed at 33699.88, +3,286.41% since February 9, 1966, or +57.66%/annum over that 57 year range.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 81.79 to 20,597.75 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Jan. 30.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 159 of 236 shares fell, while 74 rose.
Telus Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.8%.
Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 16.6%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.8%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Dec. 16
* The index declined 4.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 7.3% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 15.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 13.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.28t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.70% compared with 8.86% in the previous session and the average of 12.12% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -30.6077| -1.2| 5/45
Energy | -17.3481| -0.5| 10/29
Communication Services | -15.8914| -1.6| 0/6
Industrials | -11.6616| -0.4| 10/16
Financials | -4.4270| -0.1| 10/17
Consumer Discretionary | -3.7052| -0.5| 5/10
Utilities | -3.2449| -0.4| 3/12
Information Technology | -2.8479| -0.2| 5/9
Health Care | -2.8446| -3.6| 3/4
Real Estate | 4.3575| 0.8| 16/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Telus | -10.4400| -3.8| 262.3| 3.4
Barrick Gold | -8.4170| -2.8| 97.6| 3.3
Bombardier | -4.7130| -11.8| 179.8| 14.9
Sun Life Financial | 3.3180| 1.2| 59.5| 8.6
Couche-Tard | 3.9330| 1.2| 68.6| 3.5
Cameco | 5.0160| 4.6| 145.7| 25.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street couldn’t find many reasons to keep lifting stocks amid higher bond yields, hawkish Fedspeak and a surge in equity bullishness among retail investors that’s often seen as a contrarian indicator.
The S&P 500 finished lower after wiping out a rally of almost 1%.
Options traders continued piling into bets targeting a 6% Federal Reserve peak rate, nearly a percentage point higher than consensus.
The two-year note’s yield hit 4.5%, and earlier pushed above the 10-year rate by the widest margin since the early 1980s — a sign of flagging confidence in the economy’s ability to withstand additional tightening.
Adding to the drumbeat of officials signaling the central bank has a ways to go to curb prices, Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said it’s important to continue hiking to rein in inflation.
Data on jobless claims reinforced the idea of a hot labor market that points to tight policy, while mortgage rates rose for the first time in more than a month.
“The market’s questioning if it’s even possible for the Fed to walk the line to do what they’re aiming to do because it’s a very difficult job — slowing the economy down though interest-rate increases while keeping us from slipping into a severe recession,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “Investors understand and realize that it’s a very difficult path that the Fed has ahead of it.”
Amid so many uncertainties, some analysts see room for consolidation, especially after a surge that put stocks near overbought levels.
To Katie Stockton at Fairlead Strategies, the biggest potential challenge for the market right now is overly bullish sentiment.
The latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors showed US retail investors turned bullish for the first time since April, with the bull-bear spread rising to 12.5 from -4.7 a week earlier.
The percentage of investors with a bearish view over the next six months fell to 25%, the lowest since November 2021.
“Well, as human nature never changes, sentiment ALWAYS follows price,” wrote Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report. “And the bulls are back now across the board. From a contrarian perspective, we now need to pay attention, and while not extreme and standing room only, the bull boat is getting filled up.”
For some market watchers, trades favoring disinflation are soon set to reverse as price increases prove more entrenched than anticipated.
This year, higher-duration sectors, such as tech and consumer discretionary have led stocks’ advance, while low-duration ones such as energy and utilities have underperformed. 
This is a reversal of the trend from late 2021, where investors started to shun high-duration stocks as inflation began to rise rapidly.
The performance of mega-caps in those two industries was fairly mixed on Thursday.
Tesla Inc. extended its breakneck rally, while Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. extended a two-day selloff as concerns surfaced about the competence of Bard, the ChatGPT rival it unveiled on Feb. 6.
Key events:
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller and Patrick Harker speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0734
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2117
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 131.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.2% to $21,989.8
* Ether fell 4.7% to $1,575.74
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.67%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.29%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $77.63 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1% to $1,872 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Namitha Jagadeesh, Bailey Lipschultz, Isabelle Lee, Vildana Hajric and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

In the midst of winter, I finally learned that there was in me an invincible summer. –Albert Camus,1913-1960.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com