February 11, 2016 Newsletter

r Friends,

Tangents:

Diarist and theatre critic James Agate wrote this entry on February 11^th, 1944:

A new story about Mrs. Patrick Campbell, the leading actress of the 1890s and 1900s.  Terribly bored by an elderly scientist drooling away about ants – “they are wonderful little creatures; they have their own police force and their own army” –she leaned forward and said, with an expression of the utmost interest and a voice like damson-coloured velvet, “No navy, I suppose?” –from Ego.

Also on this day:

On Feb. 11, 1945, President Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet leader Josef Stalin signed the Yalta Agreement during World War II.

1887 – CPR opens Pacific steamship service to the Orient.

1967 – Opening of First Canada Winter Games in Quebec City.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Avon Wildlife Trust Community Manager Julie Doherty makes a final check of an art installation of life-size whales made from willows at Bennett’s Patch & White Paddock Nature Reserve near Bristol, England, Thursday. Ben Birchall/PA/AP

Visitors sit besides the installation ‘Ohne Titel VII’ (2012/2013) made of slices of toast by Polish artist Alice Musiol in the exhibition ‘Desperate Housewives? Female Artists Clean Up’ at the Kunstsammlungen Zwickau in eastern Germany Thursday. The exhibition opens Feb. 13. Jens Meyer/AP

Market Closes for February 11^th, 2016

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell a fifth day, joining a selloff in markets around the world amid waning confidence central banks can support the global economy, as commodities prices fall and growth stalls.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index lost 98.28 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,087.44 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, paring losses of as much as 1.6 percent. The index has tumbled 5.4 percent in five days. Canada’s benchmark equity gauge remains the second best-performing developed market in the world in 2016 with a 7.1 percent decline behind only New Zealand, after being among the worst in the past year.

     “Our outlook call has been to be ready for anything and this is what we’re getting now,” said Sadiq Adatia, chief investment officer at Sun Life Global Investments in Toronto. His firm manages about C$12.3 billion ($8.8 billion). “We need to get to a stage where there’s some more pain, weed out the people who are very bearish and then get back to the fundamentals of the markets. We don’t see this as a buying opportunity yet in equities and we have a risk-off trade if anything.”

     A nascent rally in Canada’s equity benchmark in recent weeks has dissipated as global stocks tumbled amid diminishing returns from central bank actions and as New York crude resumed its downward slide below $30 a barrel. The S&P/TSX slid into a bear market last month as crude prices collapsed due to a global supply glut.

     The MSCI All-Country World Index of developed and developing markets entered a bear market from the most recent May 2015 high. U.S. equities retreated as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s interest rate comments Wednesday failed to inspire lasting gains. The latest central bank moves this week follow the Bank of Japan’s surprise shift to negative interest rates and the European Central Bank’s signal it will deploy new stimulus next month.

     “Everything is off today,” said Greg Taylor, fund manager at Aurion Capital Management in Toronto. His firm manages about C$7.2 billion. “You have got the fear of what’s going on in the global market. Everyone is looking at negative rates in Europe and Japan, and trying to figure out what that means to the banking system.”

     Financials and health-care stocks contributed the biggest declines to the S&P/TSX on Thursday. Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank, the nation’s largest lenders, lost at least 1.2 percent. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. dropped 2.8 percent.

     Manulife Financial Corp., the nation’s largest life insurer, sank 9.2 percent for the biggest decline in five years after profit slumped in the fourth quarter due to the company’s energy-related investments.

     Raw-material shares jumped 3.7 percent as gold producers surged. Barrick Gold Corp. and Goldcorp Inc. rallied at least 3 percent and Kinross Gold Corp. jumped 14 percent. Gold prices climbed to the highest in a year as investors sought a haven investment against the selloff in stocks.

     Cenovus Energy Inc. rose 3.2 percent after the energy producer slashed its dividend by 69 percent and said it will cut more jobs and further reduce its 2016 spending in an effort to retain cash amid a slide in crude and natural gas prices.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson and Joseph Ciolli

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, with Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling more than 250 points, amid mounting concern that central-bank efforts to support growth are losing their potency.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index pared losses in the last hour-and-a-half of trading, after earlier falling as much as 2.3 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 Index erased most of its decline. Banks led the retreat, with Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. falling more than 6.5 percent. Boeing Co. tumbled 6.8 percent after people familiar with the matter said regulators are probing its accounting. 

     The S&P 500 dropped 1.2 percent to 1,829.08 at 4 p.m. in New York, extending declines to a fifth day, its longest losing streak since September. The benchmark fell to around the 1,810 level before rebounding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 254.56 points, or 1.6 percent, to 15,660.18, as Boeing’s plunge knocked 54 points off the index.

     “Central bank policies and the uncertainty around their effectiveness is the big macro concern right now,” said Leo Grohowski, who helps manage more than $184 billion in client assets as chief investment officer of BNY Mellon Wealth Management in New York. “There’s a large disconnect right now between what the Fed might do and what they’re saying and what the market is expecting. There’s a lot of Fed uncertainty back on the table reminiscent of late last summer.”

     Signals by central banks from Europe to Japan that additional stimulus is at the ready are failing to ease worries that global growth will keep slowing. An initial rally in U.S. stocks evaporated in the final hour of trading on Wednesday as speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold off longer on raising interest rates gave way to renewed concern over the strength of the U.S. economy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen told Congress yesterday that recent market turbulence may weigh on the outlook for the economy if it persists.

     The S&P 500 is 14 percent below its all-time high set in May, near its lowest level in two years. The Nasdaq Composite Index is about 18 percent below its record set in July amid a more than 15 percent drop so far this year.

     Declines in banks have been the biggest source of pain for U.S. equities in the market’s latest rout — a gauge of financial shares on the S&P 500 has slumped almost 18 percent just this year, to its lowest level since 2013. With global stocks breaching a level that constitutes a bear market, trading volumes remain high and volatility is on the rise.

     “Energy companies have passed the ball to financials, because that’s where they get their money,” said John Manley, who helps oversee about $233 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Funds Management in New York. “When problems spring up anywhere, they inevitably find their way back to the financial sector.”

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 7 percent Thursday to 28.14, closing at a five-month high. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX has jumped 55 percent this year.

     The U.S. earnings season hasn’t provided much of a relief even though more than three-quarters of companies that have reported so far have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates. Some 21 members of the S&P 500 are scheduled to release financial results today, including American International Group Inc. and CBS Corp. Analysts estimate S&P 500 earnings fell 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter, and will continue to contract in the following two periods.

     While the S&P 500’s valuation of 15.2 times the forecast earnings of its members is in line with the average of the past five years, the measure has plunged 13 percent since the start of the year. The gauge remains more expensive than developed markets in Europe, where the Stoxx 600 Index trades for 13.4 times estimated earnings.

     All of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries fell Thursday, with financial, raw-material and industrial shares down at least 2 percent. Consumer discretionary companies were little changed, while tech stocks closed 0.2 percent lower.

     Banks in the benchmark fell 4.4 percent, the biggest one- day drop in more than five months. The group has lost nearly 13 percent this month.

     Losses in Boeing weighed on industrial shares in the S&P 500 as well as the Dow. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether the company properly accounted for the costs and expected sales of two of its best known jetliners, according to people with knowledge of the matter. General Electric Co. and Union Pacific Corp. each lost at least 1.8 percent.

     Cisco Systems Inc. rallied 9.6 percent, the most since May 2013, after predicting sales that may beat some analysts’ estimates. The gains helped blunt some of the pain in the Nasdaq Composite. Also helping, Tesla Motors Inc. added 4.7 percent after assurances that it’s on track with development of its long-awaited Model 3, while TripAdvisor Inc. surged 12 percent on a better-than-estimated quarterly profit. Expedia Inc. jumped 9.6 percent after forecasting earnings would grow as much as 45 percent this year.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

What is it exactly that hurts you?

Open your heart and speak.  Open your eyes and see.

At the moment that you look with your eyes wide open,

everywhere you will find differences, an infinite variety,

Swami Prajnanpad

As ever,
 

Carolann

Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick.  Don’t lose faith.

                                                       -Steve Jobs, 1955-2011

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7