Februsry 2, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.   Imbolc: Wiccan Feast of Torches.   Candlemas.  Groundhog Day.

February 2, 1852: The first ever public toilet is opened in London.  Using the “Public Waiting Room” at 95 Fleet Street cost 2 pence (£3.50 in today’s money).
On Feb. 2, 1943, the remainder of Nazi forces from the Battle of Stalingrad surrendered in a major victory for the Soviets in World War II.  Go to article >>

Today is Groundhog Day, and legend has it that if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, we’re in for six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, we get to bask in an early spring. The bizarre tradition that dates back to 1887 also draws passionate crowds in the US — even though Phil’s accuracy rate is far from perfect.

James Joyce, b. 1882.
Ayn Rand, b. 1905.
W.H. Auden, b.1907.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX could launch a private moon lander within weeks
Riding aboard a SpaceX rocket, Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C lander is expected to lift off in mid-February, though the target window has not yet been announced. Read More.

‘Roots’ of Colombian mountains ‘dripped’ into the mantle millions of years ago — but the peaks still stand tall
Earth’s crust once formed a dense “root” supporting Colombia’s northern Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta mountains, but new research suggests this prop sank into the mantle millions of years ago. Read More.

2,000-year-old ‘bog body’ of teenager with missing skull discovered in Northern Ireland
The well-preserved skeleton still has portions of its fingernails and skin intact. Read More.

The Grammy Awards take place on Sunday
Among several musical appearances, Tracy Chapman will perform with Luke Combs, who is nominated in the best country solo performance category for his cover of Chapman’s timeless 1988 hit “Fast Car.”

Amazon launches AI shopping assistant
The e-commerce giant unveiled an AI shopping assistant dubbed “Rufus.” Here’s when it will roll out to US customers. 

See new Webb telescope images
These “mind-blowing” images reveal 19 galaxies “down to the smallest scales ever observed,” scientists say. 

Spotify tattoos: What you should know about the body art fad
Some devout music fans are getting Spotify tattoos that play songs when scanned. Artists are drawing attention to the possible risks.

Late Night:
One new poll shows President Biden leading former President Donald Trump 50 percent to 44 percent.
“I don’t know just how Joe did it, but political analysts think it may be his strategy of standing still while his opponent repeatedly quotes Hitler,” Stephen Colbert said on Thursday.

“Trump can’t understand why he’s losing the female vote. He was like, ‘No one has paid off more women than me.’” — JIMMY FALLON

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
A kingfisher perches on a frosty firethorn branch in Kirkcudbrightshire, Scotland
Photograph: Mediadrumimages/Jock Elliott
North Woodstock, New Hampshire, US
People explore the ice walls, trails and caverns at Ice Castles, created by Brent Christensen who crafted his first icy creation in the front yard of his home to bring happiness and joy to his children
Photograph: Joseph Prezioso/AFP/Getty Images
Zubieta, Spain
A group of Joaldunak called Zanpantzar take part in the carnival between the Pyrenees villages of Ituren and Zubieta. In one of the most ancient carnivals in Europe, dating from before the Roman empire, companies of Joaldunak (cowbell wearers) parade the streets costumed in sandals, lace petticoats, sheepskins, coloured neckerchiefs, conical caps and a hyssop of horsehair in their right hands.
Photograph: Álvaro Barrientos/AP
Market Closes for February 2^nd, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1869, the first warning signs of that year’s financial panic appeared: A New York newspaper reported that an IRS auditor had discovered that trustees of several city churches had taken $2 million in ecclesiastical trust funds and used them to speculate in stocks.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 21,085.09 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 158 of 225 shares fell, while 66 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%. Interfor Corp. had the largestdrop, falling 4.3%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 1.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 12.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.34t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.02% compared with 8.81% in the previous session and the average of 10.46% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -63.6601| -1.8| 2/39
Materials | -42.1946| -1.9| 5/47
Communication Services | -12.9741| -1.6| 1/4
Utilities | -5.1195| -0.6| 3/12
Financials | -3.8768| -0.1| 12/15
Real Estate | -2.5344| -0.5| 5/15
Consumer Staples | -2.2620| -0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -0.4250| -0.7| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | 2.2925| 0.3| 7/6
Industrials | 13.7973| 0.5| 17/9
Information Technology | 82.8543| 4.3| 7/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -21.6700| -3.4| 16.1| -6.0
BCE | -9.5050| -2.7| 83.4| 2.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | -8.0510| -3.4| 55.7| -9.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 4.6910| 0.7| -17.6| 6.9
Constellation Software | 5.9470| 1.2| -19.5| 15.4
Shopify | 75.0800| 8.7| 50.7| 8.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market extended this week’s gains as big tech rallied and a solid jobs report bolstered the outlook for corporate profits.
Equities hit all-time highs, with the S&P 500 approaching 5,000 and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.7% on bullish outlooks from Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Economic optimism outweighed bets the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut rates.
Treasury two-year yields jumped 16 basis points to 4.36%. The dollar climbed to its strongest since December.
“Today’s jobs report calls into question the narrative of a ‘soft landing’,” said David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The January jobs report was pretty dramatic, implying there may be ‘no landing.’ The economy is ripping ahead.”
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, strong growth in labor productivity means unit labor costs are under control — which is a good backdrop for company earnings. “It’s hard to get too bearish” with such economic resilience, said Bret Kenwell at eToro. Larry Tentarelli at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report sees the data as “a very bullish sign for the economy” — adding that “we are buyers on any short-term weakness in stocks.”
“Just as many were caught off guard by the recession that never appeared in 2023, there’s always the possibility that another year will go by without a recession,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance. Nonfarm payrolls surged 353,000 last month following upward revisions to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Hourly wages accelerated from a month earlier, increasing by the most since March 2022. Separate data showed US consumer sentiment increased sharply.
While signs of a strong economy may continue to bode well for Corporate America, the data just reinforce the view that the Fed will delay the start of its rate cuts.
“I think we can officially kiss a March rate-cut goodbye — and more than likely a May,” said Alex McGrath at NorthEnd Private Wealth.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she expects inflation to fall further with interest rates held at their current level — but noted it’s too soon for officials to consider cutting rates.
Swap contracts referencing the March Fed meeting date cut the odds of a quarter-point rate cut in half, to about 15% —while the May contract no longer fully priced in a cut, which it had for more than a month.
“A March rate cut now appears increasingly unlikely,” said Jason Pride at Glenmede. “The more likely trajectory is 2-3 cuts this year beginning around summer.” Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management says that it wasn’t just a strong January for the labor market. It turns out that previous months were stronger than initially believed.
“The dramatic upside surprise to both jobs and wage growth means that a March rate cut must be off the table now, and a May cut is also now potentially on ice,” she noted. Following Wednesday’s Fed decision, Chair Jerome Powell said that a cut is unlikely to come at the next gathering in March. He’ll will appear on CBS News’s 60 Minutes this Sunday to discuss inflation risks, expected rate cuts and the banking system, among other topics, the network said. Powell’s pushback on the Fed being ready to cut rates in
March now looks particularly “well timed,” according to Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co. To Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab, Friday’s figures may be another factor delaying the Fed’s first rate cut closer to summer, but if the economy maintains its comfortable trajectory, that might not be a bad thing.  “What’s the hurry?” he asks.
The strong market gains remain at nearly unprecedented levels — with shifting expectations on the Fed outlook “unable to crack the momentum,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Investors remaining on the sidelines are beginning to capitulate, which when paired with the return of share repurchases following earnings season, should act as a tailwind for markets,” Hackett noted.
Equities powered ahead Friday, led by a rally in megacaps that have driven the market surge from the bottom.
Meta, which dazzled shareholders with yet another impressive earnings report, soared 20% to a record. The surge added $197 billion to its market capitalization, the biggest single-session value addition, eclipsing the $190 billion gains made by Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. in 2022.
The rush into technology stocks is resembling the dot-com era, reflecting an assumption that the economy will perform strongly despite tighter monetary policy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett. He notes that 75% of investors expect a soft landing and 20% a no-landing scenario. Yet, while a soft landing should support a broader range of equities, the so-called Magnificent Seven accounted for 45% of the S&P 500’s return in January, reflecting a “leaning toward no landing/bubble,” he said.
In other corporate news, Apple Inc. trimmed its slide as investors looked past a deepening slump in its China business. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. surpassed earnings forecasts as bigger-than-expected oil output from shale fields helped cushion the blow from weakening crude prices. A gauge of regional banks rebounded after a two-day rout.
Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.0793
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.2637
* The Japanese yen fell 1.3% to 148.30 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $42,945.79
* Ether fell 0.3% to $2,297.85
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 14 basis points to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.24%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 17 basis points to 3.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $72.14 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,036.72 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Michael Mackenzie, Subrat Patnaik and Carter Johnson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
As soon as you trust yourself, you will know how to live. –Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, 1749-1832.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com