December 18, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

December 15, 1989: General Augusto Pinochet defeated; democracy returns to Chile.
1966:  Movie producer Walt Disney died at age 65. Go to article >>
1791: The Bill of Rights, the first ten amendments to the U.S. Constitution, is ratified.

Don Johnson, actor, b. 1949.
J. Paul Getty, b. 1892.
Sitting Bull, d.1890.

People buried at mega tombs were defleshed after death
A tomb in Iberia that dates to 6,000 years ago contained bones that were de-fleshed and cracked after death. Read More.

Void from the sun blew up Mars’ atmosphere last year
On Dec. 26, 2022, NASA’s MAVEN Orbiter witnessed Mars’ magnetic shield and atmosphere drastically “balloon” outward by thousands of miles. The sudden expansion was triggered by a rare gap in solar wind. Read More.

California redwoods ‘killed’ by wildfire resurrected
New buds are sprouting through the charred remains of California redwoods that burned in 2020, suggesting the trees are more resilient to wildfires than thought.
Read More

1st evidence of nuclear fission in stars discovered
An analysis of 42 ancient stars in the Milky Way reveals the first hints of nuclear fission in the cosmos, suggesting the existence of elements far heavier than anything found naturally on Earth.  Read More.

The Beverly Hills of Dubai.

Growing oysters on land in Japan.

Ancient Roman palace reopens after 50 years of neglect
An ancient imperial palace described as a “lost jewel” is once again welcoming visitors after a painstaking six-year renovation.

Can you solve this challenge from a UK spy agency?
GCHQ, the UK’s largest intelligence agency, sent out its annual Christmas card, complete with a set of challenging puzzles for curious minds. See if you can uncover the final festive message.

‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’ will air its final episode in 2024
After 12 seasons, HBO’s hit comedy series “Curb Your Enthusiasm” will air its final episode on April 7, according to Max. (CNN, HBO and Max are all part of the same parent company, Warner Bros. Discovery.)

NFL to play regular season game in Brazil
The NFL announced that São Paulo, Brazil, will host a regular season game in 2024, the first ever in South America.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Pucon town, Chile
The Villarrica volcano lights up the sky at night.  Photograph: Cristobal Saavedra Escobar/Reuters.

Paris, France
A luminous drone hovers near the Eiffel Tower.  Photograph: Christophe Ena/AP.

​​​​​​​Obwalden, Switzerland
The freshly snow-covered Gross Spannort mountain, with an altitude of 3,198 metres (10,492ft) above sea level.  Photograph: Urs Flueeler/AP.
Market Closes for December 15^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 Speaking of crowded trades…on this day in 1972, a survey by Stock Service Digest found that 84% of “well-known stock market advisers” were bullish. “All but a few diehard bears,” the Digest wrote, “are counseling new buying.” The Dow didn’t rise above its Dec. 15 level for another decade.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.2% at 20,529.15 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest loss since Oct. 20 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.7%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 185 of 227 shares fell, while 40 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.7%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 6.2%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 16 times. The next day, it declined 12 times for an average 0.5% and advanced four times for an average 0.4%
* This year, the index rose 5.9%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.1%
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 4.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 9.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 on a trailing basis and 14.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.28t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.60% compared with 9.91% in the previous session and the average of 12.60% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -69.6444| -1.9| 2/37
Financials | -55.5820| -0.9| 2/25
Industrials | -28.0412| -1.0| 8/19
Communication Services | -24.4672| -3.1| 0/5
Materials | -21.4755| -0.9| 16/35
Consumer Discretionary | -13.0623| -1.7| 1/13
Real Estate | -12.1265| -2.4| 1/20
Utilities | -11.4412| -1.4| 1/14
Information Technology | -8.2263| -0.5| 6/5
Consumer Staples | -5.3812| -0.6| 1/10
Health Care | -0.2035| -0.3| 2/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -24.6700| -3.7| 22.0| 11.0
BCE | -12.3700| -3.6| 310.7| -13.0
TD Bank | -10.6500| -1.0| 274.6| -4.7
Teck Resources | 1.1590| 0.7| 208.7| 9.8
Gildan Activewear | 2.2090| 4.1| 411.1| 24.5
RBC | 5.1720| 0.4| 272.2| 3.2
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street went all in on stocks and bonds this week after Jerome Powell the Federal Reserve affirmed it’s ready to shift to rate cuts.
The US central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged as policymakers pivoted away from further rate hikes, instead penciling in three rate cuts for next year.
The Nasdaq 100 closed at an all-time high — it last traded at a record price two years ago.
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy gauge both notched seven-week winning streaks on the back of the Fed’s about-face.
Even pushback from New York Fed President John Williams, who told CNBC on Friday it was “premature” to be thinking about a March rate cut, failed to squelch the rally.
The S&P 500 ended the day unchanged while logging a 2.5% weekly climb.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmark advanced 0.2%, setting its third consecutive record high.
US Treasuries advanced across the curve, though Friday’s trading was mixed.
“We view his comments as an effort to guide to a slower slope of normalization over several years as well as a challenge to the strong market bets on March for the first cut,” Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, said.
Guha views the first rate cut as more likely to come in May or June.
Williams’ Atlanta counterpart, Raphael Bostic told Reuters he was only penciling in two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts in the latter half of 2024.
Swaps traders were eying as many as six rates cuts for next year.
“The S&P 500 has rallied more than 10% in less than two months so some digestion of the rally is needed,” Tom Essaye, the founder of The Sevens Report newsletter, wrote. That “likely will come in the near term, especially if Fed officials rhetorically push back on the market’s enthusiasm in the next week or two.”
The dollar advanced snapping a three-day slide.
The yield on the 10-year bond — the benchmark for everything from mortgages to corporate debt — broke below 4% for the first time since August this week.
“Bond yields have been markedly volatile this year as market participants try to determine what the new normal for interest rates will be,” Carol Schleif, chief investment officer
of BMO Family Office wrote. “We suspect the longer term new normal for the 10-year Treasury yield to range between 4% and 4.5%.”
Traders also had to contend with the year’s largest quarterly options and futures expiry and its potential to spark volatility.
A staggering $5.4 trillion of contracts tied to stocks and indexes went off the board today, according to an estimate from Rocky Fishman, founder of derivatives analytical
firm Asym 500.
Even with Williams tamping down some of the market’s ebullience, the Fed’s tone this week was more dovish than that from European peers.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller said Friday that markets are getting ahead of themselves in betting that the ECB will start cutting interest rates in the first half of next year.
On Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank had not discussed rate cuts at all.
“The contrast between the resilient US economy adopting a dovish stance and faltering European economies holding on to a hawkish position gives the impression that something is amiss,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note to clients.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0893
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2674
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 142.24 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $42,242.83
* Ether fell 2.1% to $2,251.65
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.91%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 2.02%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 3.69%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $71.69 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,018.37 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Carly Wanna, Jan-Patrick Barnert, Kwaku Gyasi and Naomi Tajitsu.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
No problem can withstand the assault of sustained thinking. –Voltaire, 1694-1778.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com