March 10th, 2011 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

A couple of anniversaries to ponder today…On March 10, 1876, The Globe & Mail reminds us today, Alexander Graham Bell made his first successful telephone call.  “He spent three years trying to figure out how to transmit speech across electrical cables.  Three days after securing the patent for the electromagnetic telephone, [he] successfully tested it at his workshop in Boston.  As he spoke into one end, his assistant, electrical designer Thomas Watson, listened on the other in the next room.  Although Elisha Gray would lay claim to having invented the device first, Bell’s purported words that day – ‘Mr. Watson, come here.  I want to see you’  – had the ring of history.   Bell himself would be claimed by three countries: Scotland, where he was born; the United States, where he created his most famous inventions; and Canada, where he studied the Mohawk language as a young man and where, many decades later, he died.”  -Adrian Morrow

The other anniversary is that paper money was issued for the first time in the US on March 10, 1862.

The sculpture ‘The Dog’ from 1951 is pictured in front of the sculpture ‘The Chariot’ from 1950 during a media preview of an exhibition of late Swiss artist Alberto Giacometti (1901-1966) at the Kunsthaus Zurich art museum in Zurich, Switzerland. The exhibition, ‘Alberto Giacometti – The Art of Seeing,’ which shows some ninety works of the Swiss sculptor, painter and graphic artist, runs from March 11 until May 22, 2011. Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Jennifer A. Johnson

March 10 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell for a fourth day as energy and materials producers tumbled after Spain’s debt rating was cut and U.S. jobless claims rose, spurring concern that global growth will slow.

Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s biggest energy producer, fell

2.5 percent as crude oil dropped. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. fell 2.8 percent. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.

declined 2.3 percent as corn and wheat futures slipped. Barrick Gold Corp. slumped 1.5 percent as the precious metal retreated.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index declined 195.28 points, or 1.4 percent, to 13,689.43 at 2:30 p.m. in Toronto.

The benchmark Canadian equity index dropped as much as 2.2 percent, the most intraday since Aug. 11.

“After eight months on the TSX of unstoppable rally, we’ve hit a lull,” said Barry Schwartz, vice president at Baskin Financial Services Inc. in Toronto, who helps manage about C$390 million ($400 million). “The geopolitical crises are finally getting investors’ attention and the front page news on potential defaults and downgrades of European debt, combined with non-stop bad news out of the Middle East and northern Africa have finally taken the upper hand.”

A subgroup of energy producers in the S&P/TSX has dropped 6.2 percent since March 4 on concern higher oil prices will slow the global economic recovery. Energy and material producers make up 49 percent of Canadian stocks by market value.

U.S. applications for first-time unemployment benefits increased by 26,000 to 397,000 in the week ended March 5, Labor Department figures showed. Economists forecast claims would climb to 376,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

The U.S. trade deficit increased 15 percent to $46.3 billion, from $40.3 billion in December, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington, as a surge in imports led by costlier oil overshadowed record exports.

China’s export growth was the slowest since 2009 and German exports dropped 1 percent in January from December. Moody’s Investors Service cut Spain’s rating by one level to Aa2, saying the government underestimated the cost of shoring up its banking industry.

Libyan rebels fled a key oil hub on the Mediterranean coast even as the insurgency’s leaders won recognition from French President Nicolas Sarkozy of the transitional government set up to oppose Muammar Qaddafi.

Crude oil pared losses after the Associated Press reported that police in Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s biggest producer, opened fire at a rally in the east of the country.

Oil for April delivery declined 1.4 percent to $102.93 a barrel in New York.

Suncor slumped 2.5 percent to C$42.01. The energy producer fell to C$41.25, the lowest intraday price since Feb. 14.

Canadian Natural dropped 2.8 percent to C$45.06. Cenovus Energy Inc. declined 2.3 percent to C$35.77.

“The sectors that have done so well over the last two years commodities like base metals, energy, and food are the ones that will take the biggest hits,” Schwartz said.  “These are the sectors that are the most volatile and the ones tied most to economic growth.”

Potash Corp. declined 2.3 percent to C$52.81. Earlier, the fertilizer producer fell to C$51.72, the lowest intraday price since Jan. 4. Agrium Inc. slipped 1.6 percent to C$86.68. Corn futures fell 1.1 percent and wheat sank 2.2 percent.

Gold producers fell after gold futures dropped the most in a week. A stronger U.S. dollar prompted some investors to sell the metal after unrest in the Middle East and northern Africa pushed prices to a record.

Barrick Gold declined 1.5 percent to C$49.26, after falling to C$48.74, the lowest intraday price since Feb. 16. Goldcorp Inc. fell 2.2 percent to C$46.10.

Transat A.T. Inc., Canada’s largest tour operator, slumped 25 percent to C$12.40. It fell as much as 26 percent intraday, the biggest drop since March 2010. The Montreal-based company reported first-quarter revenue of C$810.2 million, missing the average analyst estimate of C$837.2 million, Bloomberg data show.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. advanced 3.1 percent to C$25.50, the biggest gain in the Canadian benchmark equity index. The owner of Circle K convenience stores reported third- quarter profit of 38 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate by 2.2 percent, Bloomberg data show.

US

By Claudia Carpenter and Nikolaj Gammeltoft

March 10 (Bloomberg) — Stocks slid, while the dollar and Treasuries gained, as U.S. jobless claims rose, China’s export growth slowed and Spain’s credit rating was cut. Equities extended losses and oil pared declines as the Associated Press reported Saudi Arabian police fired into a crowd of protesters.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated 1.8 percent to 1,296.76 at 3:14 p.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 1.2 percent to 277.88, its lowest close of the year. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, rose 0.8 percent. Crude slipped 1.6 percent after tumbling as much as 3.6 percent earlier. Treasuries extended gains after a 30-year bond auction produced the highest demand since 2000. The euro fell to $1.3783 as the dollar gained against all 16 peers.

Investors fled riskier assets after first-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits and the American trade deficit topped economists’ estimates, China’s export growth was the slowest since 2009 and German exports dropped 1 percent in January from December. The Bank of Korea raised borrowing costs after inflation exceeded its target. Moody’s Investors Service cut Spain’s rating by one level to Aa2, saying the government underestimated the cost of shoring up its banking industry.

“We may be seeing indications of an economic slowdown,” said Donald Selkin, the New York-based chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., which manages $3 billion. “The market has been whistling past the graveyard of higher oil prices and consumers pulling back, but now it’s starting to weigh down on stocks and we’ve probably seen the highs until we get first-quarter earnings results in April. The only thing that is going up today is the bond market as people run to safety.”

The S&P 500 fell for the fourth time in five days, with energy, financial and technology companies falling more than 1.7 percent to lead declines among all 10 industry groups.

Caterpillar Inc. and General Electric Co. slumped at least 2.1 percent, pacing losses among industrial companies, and 28 of 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell.

The S&P 500 has retreated 3.2 percent from its high for the year on Feb. 18 amid concern higher oil prices will stifle the economic recovery. The gauge is trading near its average from the past 50 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 hasn’t closed below that threshold, a level watched by analysts who make forecasts based on chart patterns, since Sept. 1. The index has rallied 93 percent from its bear-market low in March 2009.

“The down move we’re seeing today is a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend,” said Christopher Verrone, lead technical analyst at New York-based Strategas Research Partners.

“The integrity of the uptrend since the 2009 low is still intact, but if the 1,294-level on the S&P 500 fails to hold in the next couple of days, we’ll probably come down to 1,260. And that’s a range which we would look at as a buying opportunity.”

Applications for first-time unemployment benefits increased by 26,000 to 397,000 in the week ended March 5, Labor Department figures showed. Economists forecast claims would climb to 376,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

The U.S. trade deficit widened to the highest level in seven months as a surge in imports led by costlier crude oil overshadowed record exports. The gap increased 15 percent to $46.3 billion, from $40.3 billion in December, Commerce Department figures showed. Imports jumped 5.2 percent, the most since 1993, while exports grew 2.7 percent. The deficit was wider than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped eight basis points to 3.40 percent. U.S. debt extended gains after the government sold $13 billion of 30-year bonds, the final of three note and bond auctions this week totaling $66 billion, and rallied further after the report of violence in Saudi Arabia.

The 30-year bond yield dropped eight basis points to 4.54 percent. The securities sold today yielded 4.569 percent, compared with an average forecast of 4.610 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 7 of the Federal Reserve’s 20 primary dealers. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 3.02, compared with an average of 2.66 at the last 10 auctions.

The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default in the U.S. climbed. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, rose 2 basis point to a mid-price of 86.75 basis points, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd. The cost to protect debt from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. climbed. Six stocks dropped for each that gained in the Stoxx 600.

Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. helped lead basic-resource producers to the biggest decline among 19 industry groups. Home Retail Group Plc sank 5.9 percent as the owner of the Homebase do-it-yourself store chain lowered its profit forecast. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and China’s Shanghai Composite Index tumbled at least 1.5 percent.

The dollar appreciated against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts, gaining 0.3 percent to 82.99 yen and 1.6 percent versus the Norwegian krone. The pound slid against 13 of 16 major peers as the Bank of England policymakers kept the benchmark rate at a record 0.5 percent low.

The Australian dollar depreciated against all but two of its most actively traded peers after the nation’s employers unexpectedly cut workers in February for the first time in 18 months as floods and a cyclone disrupted hiring in the nation’s northeast.

Crude oil traded in New York fell 1.6 percent to $102.72 a barrel. In London, Brent oil retreated 0.5 percent to $115.31 after sliding as much as 2.1 percent.

Prices rebounded after AP quoted an unnamed witness in the city of Qatif saying gunfire and stun grenades were fired at several hundred protesters, leaving at least one person injured.

Futures slipped as much as 3.6 percent earlier.

Copper declined 0.4 percent to $4.1975 a pound in New York, its lowest settlement price of the year.

The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of commodities slumped 1.6 percent, the most on a closing basis since Nov. 16.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

Knowledge relieves all suffering.  Knowledge liberates. Which knowledge?  Chemistry?  Physics?  Astronomy?  Geology?

They help a little, but only a little.  The true knowledge is the knowledge of our own nature. Know yourself.  You must know who you are, understand your inner nature. You must become conscious of this infinite nature in yourself.  Then you will break free of your shackles.

-Swami Vivekananda, 1863-1902

As ever,

Carolann

Courage is the ladder on which all the other virtues mount.

-Clare Booth Luce, 1903-1987

March 9th, 2011 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Space Shuttle Discovery lands at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla. Discovery ended its career as the world’s most-flown spaceship today, returning from orbit for the last time and taking off in a new direction as a museum piece.

Revelers of Unidos do Peruche samba school perform atop of a float during the opening night of parades at the Sambadrome, as part of Carnival celebrations in Sao Paulo, Brazil, late on March 4. Brazil’s Carnival kicked off on the eve with millions of people taking to the streets of the northeastern city of Salvador de Bahia to dance and party, effectively putting the nation on a week-long hiatus. (Mauricio Lima/AFP/Getty Images)

 

Children revelers of Nene de Vila Matilde samba school get ready at a concentration area before the start of the second night of Carnival parades at the Sambadrome, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, late on March 5. (Maurcicio Lima/Getty Images)

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

Bloomberg: By Jennifer A. Johnson

Canadian stocks fell for a third day, led by raw material producers, as Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. slipped on an analyst rating cut and Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK/B) slumped along with copper prices.

Potash Corp., the world’s largest fertilizer producer, dropped 4.6 percent after Citigroup Inc. cut the shares to “hold” from “buy.” Teck Resources declined 3.5 percent as copper slid on concern higher oil prices will slow the global economic recovery. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM) fell 5.6 percent.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index declined 128.26 points, or 0.9 percent, to 13,884.71 in Toronto.

“At the beginning as oil prices go higher, energy producers benefit,” said Marcus Xu, director of equity investments at Genus Capital Management in Vancouver, which manages C$1.7 billion ($1.8 billion). “But you have to think about the other side as well, which is how higher oil prices will impact the consumer.”

A subgroup of materials producers in the Canadian benchmark equity index has dropped 4.5 percent this week. Copper futures have dropped 9.4 percent since Feb. 14. Oil soared 23 percent in the same period.

Crude oil fell for a second day in New York after the U.S. reported a surge in supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade. Brent oil traded in London climbed as Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi stepped up attacks on insurgents.

Futures rose as much as 0.9 percent before erasing gains after Cushing supplies climbed 1.69 million barrels to 40.3 million last week, the highest level since the Energy Department began gathering data at the hub. Oil climbed earlier as Libyan government forces launched air and artillery strikes on central oil ports to halt a rebel advance.

“Even if the Libyan situation settles, there are still other countries to worry about,” Xu said. “The unrest in the Middle East isn’t going away anytime soon.”

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU), Canada’s biggest energy producer, fell 1.4 percent to C$43.07. Talisman Energy Inc. dropped 1.6 percent to C$22.96.

A group of gold producers in the S&P/TSX Index fell for a third day, declining 1.3 percent. Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) slumped 1.6 percent to $49.99, while Goldcorp Inc. (G) sank 1.6 percent to C$47.12.

Potash Corp. fell 4.6 percent to C$54.06 after Citigroup Inc. cut its rating, citing a lack of catalysts to drive the shares higher.

Teck, Canada’s largest base-metals producer, fell 3.5 percent to C$50.87, after copper for May delivery fell 2.9 percent on concern demand may wane as higher energy costs slow the global economy. First Quantum Minerals Ltd., the country’s second-largest publicly traded copper producer, fell 5.6 percent to C$111.92.

Cineplex Inc. advanced 1.8 percent to C$23.30. The company that owns interests in Canadian movie theaters was raised to “outperform” from “market perform” at Raymond James Securities. The 12-month price estimate is C$25.

Aastra Technologies Ltd. (AAH) gained 3.3 percent to C$24.05, after the maker of telecommunications equipment was raised to “buy” from “hold” at TD Newcrest Inc. The 12-month price estimate is C$32.

TMX Group Inc., the owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Montreal Exchange derivatives market, dropped 2 percent to C$39.07 after Toronto-Dominion Bank and other Canadian lenders expressed concern about the proposed sale of TMX Group to London Stock Exchange Group Plc because the country will cede regulatory control of its main stock exchange.

 

US

Bloomberg: By Rita Nazareth and Adam Haigh

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower a third time in four days, as escalating violence in Libya tempered optimism that the biggest equity rally since 1955 will extend into a third year.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and DuPont Co. dropped at least 1 percent, pacing losses in industrial shares. Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) slumped 3.1 percent as the largest analog chipmaker narrowed its earnings forecast. Finisar Corp. (FNSR) tumbled 39 percent, leading other network-equipment makers lower, as its profit estimate missed analysts’ projections. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) rose 2.2 percent as Deutsche Bank AG lifted its share- price estimate for the largest computer-services provider.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.1 percent to 1,320.02 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.29 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 12,213.09 as IBM, which makes up about 10 percent of the Dow, propped up the 30-stock gauge. Oil slid 0.6 percent to settle at $104.38 a barrel as a surge in supplies at a U.S. hub overshadowed concern about violence in Libya.

“You’d be crazy not to be concerned about geopolitical risks,” said Philip Dow, director of equity strategy at Minneapolis-based RBC Wealth Management, which oversees $164 billion. “Oil touches everything. However, if you’ve paid attention to every near-term uncertainty of the last two years, you would have missed the big move in stocks. You can’t see the forest for the trees. There’s not enough evidence that this could derail the global recovery. This is an expansion.”

The S&P 500 has fallen 1.7 percent from this year’s highest level on Feb. 18 as crude oil surged amid unrest in Libya and the Middle East. The benchmark for U.S. equities has rallied 95 percent from its bear-market low two years ago on government stimulus measures and as corporate earnings beat analysts’ estimates for eight straight quarters.

Libya’s Ras Lanuf refinery, the country’s largest crude- processing plant, was shut amid fighting between government forces and rebels, an official with the Libyan Emirates Oil Refining Co. said. Oil tanks at the nearby Es Sider terminal were damaged by bombings today, according to Al Jazeera television.

While some use “these issues to paint a gloomy picture, we remain optimistic and believe this ‘wall of worry’ will help elongate the bull run,” said Kully Samra, who manages U.K.- based clients for Charles Schwab Corp., which has $1.5 trillion in client assets. “The general trend in stocks continues to be higher despite increasing concerns over inflation, debt, global conflict, rising interest rates and oil prices.”

Laszlo Birinyi, who told clients to buy as the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, says gains that added about $28 trillion to global share values will outlast previous increases as investors who missed the first phase play catch-up. Valuations are still below historical averages, said Barton Biggs, the hedge-fund manager who purchased stocks before the S&P 500 almost doubled.

“These kinds of strong beginnings lead to long and durable bull markets,” Birinyi, who founded Westport, Connecticut-based research and money management firm Birinyi Associates Inc. in 1989 after a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers, said in a March 7 phone interview. “While there will be corrections and while there will be pauses, we’re still of the view that this is a bull market that we expect to go on for several years.”

Five straight quarters of U.S. profit growth and the biggest yearly increase since 1988 have held down valuations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. benchmark index is trading at 15.5 times reported earnings, compared with the average ratio of 19.7 at bull-market peaks.

The proportion of investment publications that are forecasting a stock market correction, or 10 percent drop, declined to a four-month low of 26.7 percent between March 2 and yesterday, according to Investors Intelligence, which has examined forecasts in newsletters since 1963. Newsletter writers who are bullish rose to 52.2 percent, the highest since Jan 11, while bearish publications climbed to 21.1 percent, the highest in a month.

Stocks of industries which are most dependent on economic growth, including commodity producers, technology and industrial companies, led the declines in the S&P 500.

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, lost 1.7 percent to $102.36. DuPont, the third- biggest U.S. chemical maker, slid 1 percent to $53.71.

Texas Instruments fell 3.1 percent to $34.74. The largest analog chipmaker narrowed its first-quarter profit estimate to 56 cents to 60 cents a share from 54 cents to 62 cents. The average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey was 59 cents.

Finisar tumbled 39 percent to $24.61 for its biggest decline since going public in 1999. The maker of fiber-optic transmission gear said it won’t earn more than 35 cents a share excluding some items in the fourth quarter, missing the average analyst estimate of 48 cents.

Other makers of networking equipment also slumped. JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) fell 17 percent, the biggest drop in the S&P 500, to $21.14. Ciena Corp. (CIEN) slumped 5.3 percent to $24.33.

IBM rose 2.2 percent to $165.86, the biggest increase in the Dow, and touched an all-time high of $167.72. Deutsche Bank raised its share-price estimate for the computer-services provider to $200 from $175. There is “ample flexibility” for IBM to beat its forecast of generating at least $20 a share by 2015 given its revenue growth, productivity gains and share buybacks, analyst Chris Whitmore wrote in a note to clients.

Retailers advanced as American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) reported fourth-quarter profit from continuing operations of 44 cents, beating the average analyst estimate by 1 cent. The Pittsburgh-based company climbed 5.1 percent to $15.56.

J.C. Penney Co. rallied 4.8 percent to $36.94, the biggest increase in the S&P 500. Macy’s Inc. (M) rose 3 percent to $24.08.

 

Yoga is concerned with freedom from spiritual disturbance. The first step in yoga is to engage in introspection, and thereby understand the inner obstacles that must be overcome. The purpose of yoga is to weaken the hindrances which obstruct knowledge of the soul. There are five hindrances: ignorance, egoism, attachment, aversion and tenacity.

~Patanjali

Warmest regards,

Chelsey for Carolann

“As a single footstep will not make a path on the earth, so a single thought will not make a pathway in the mind. To make a deep physical path, we walk again and again. To make a deep mental path, we must think over and over the kind of thoughts we wish to dominate our lives.”  ~Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862)