Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
May 30, 1381: An unpopular poll tax sparks the Peasants’ Revolt, England’s first major uprising and a key moment in feudalism’s decline and property rights’ evolution.
May 30, 2011 Germany announced plans to abandon nuclear power over the next 11 years, outlining an ambitious strategy in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster to replace atomic power with renewable energy sources.  Go to article.
1783: First US newspaper published.

Peter the Great, Russian Tsar, b.1672.

Best cameras 2025: Reviewed and ranked by pros.

How many satellites could fit in Earth orbit? And how many do we really need?

Kilimanjaro’s giant groundsels: The strange plants that thrive on Africa’s tallest mountain.

Newly discovered ‘ghost’ lineage linked to ancient mystery population in Tibet, DNA study finds.

Combo of cancer therapy drugs increases mice lifespan by 30% — but anti-aging benefits in humans remain unknown.

Just imagine how fun the holidays will be
Actor/comedian Eddie Murphy’s son Eric Murphy recently wed Jasmin Lawrence, actor/comedian Martin Lawrence’s daughter. “Yeah, we’re in-laws,” Murphy said on “The Jennifer Hudson Show.”

Fewer perks, more profit
Starbucks plans to eliminate one of its top loyalty perks: the 25-star bonus for customers who bring in a reusable cup for drink orders. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Idlib, Syria
A child working in a rose garden. Growing roses provides financial opportunities for farmers and displaced people in the rural outskirts of Idlib, Damascus and other cities
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

London, UK
Swans, cygnets and geese in Hyde Park
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
London, UK
Manet’s painting At the Cafe (1878, left) on display with Corner of a Cafe-Concert (1878-80) at the National Gallery. They originally formed part of a larger composition known as Reichshoffen, the name of a Parisian brasserie and cafe-concert
Photograph: James Manning/PA
Market Closes for May 30^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42270.07	+54.34
		+0.13%
S&P 500	5911.69	-0.48
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	19113.77	-62.10
		-0.32%
TSX	26175.05	-35.51
		-0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37965.10	-467.88
		-1.22%
HANG SENG	23289.77	-283.61
		-1.20%
SENSEX	81451.01	-182.01
		-0.22%
FTSE 100*	8772.38	+55.93
		+0.64%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.200	3.205
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.477	3.499
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4004	4.4180
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9305	4.9162

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7275	0.7242
US $	1.3745	1.3808

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5598	0.6411
US $	1.1348	0.8812

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3312.40	3300.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	60.79	61.84

Market Commentary:
Nothing is more amusing than the multitude of laws and canons made in every age on the subject of the interest of money, always by wiseacres  who were hardly acquainted with Trade and always without effect.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.1%, or 35.51 to 26,175.05 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.
Today, 121 of 217 shares fell, while 93 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on May 29, 2025 and 21.9% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.22t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.08% compared with 7.99% in the previous session and the average of 22.16% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | -29.2442| -0.7| 7/33
Materials | -12.5130| -0.4| 30/20
Information Technology | -7.9306| -0.3| 4/6
Real Estate | -2.5525| -0.5| 8/11
Consumer Staples | -0.6875| -0.1| 7/3
Utilities | -0.3545| 0.0| 6/8
Health Care | -0.1377| -0.2| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0044| 0.0| 5/5
Industrials | 0.2546| 0.0| 12/15
Communication Services | 3.3843| 0.6| 5/0
Financials | 14.2760| 0.2| 7/18
Shopify | -16.8000| -1.3| 71.8| -4.2
Canadian Natural Resources | -12.0900| -1.9| -12.0| -6.1
Cenovus | -5.7320| -3.4| 70.5| -17.0
Enbridge | 8.4070| 0.9| -27.4| 4.7
Constellation Software | 10.9500| 1.6| 205.8| 11.9
RBC | 15.2800| 0.9| 72.7| 0.4
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second-straight day on Friday after running up record highs earlier this week, as one veteran market watcher said the Bank of Canada “would be well advised to get off its derriere” on interest rates.
Not helped by lower commodity prices and a gloomy outlook in Canadian GDP data released earlier in the session, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down today by 35.5 points to close out the week at 26,175.05.
Sectors were mixed, with none rising by even near 1%, while Base Metals and Energy and Health Care were both down near 1.7%.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower for a second day on Friday, moving down on the prospect of surplus supply as the market awaits final court decisions on the legality of blanket U.S. tariffs on the country’s trading partners.
WTI crude for July delivery closed down $0.15 to settle at US$60.79 per barrel, while July Brent crude was down $0.20 to US$63.95.
Also, gold traded lower late afternoon on Friday as the dollar rose after data showed a key measure of U.S. inflation fell more than expected last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $26.00 to US$3,317.90 per ounce.
Much of the focus Friday was on Canadian GDP data as market watchers looked for an update on the health of the economy given the uncertainty over a potential global trade war.
They were also looking for clues as to whether or not the Bank of Canada would get back on the interest-rate cut path next Wednesday.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, said Canada’s Q1 real GDP data had a “strong headline, but showed weakness beneath the surface”.
He noted the headline was up 2.2% annualized, above the consensus for a rise of 1.7%, but this outperformance was offset by a downward revision to Q4 2024.
“Final domestic demand was flat at -0.0% with ownership transfer costs a substantial headwind, a development we had anticipated,” Doyle added.
Looking ahead, Doyle said Canada’s growth is likely to remain subdued due to headwinds from trade policy uncertainty, with this likely to weigh in particular on the auto sector, and a further slowdown in population growth, as well as headwinds to housing activity from mortgage rates resetting higher.
“We see a modest contraction to flat activity as the most likely outcome through year-end,” Doyle said.
For his part veteran economist David Rosenberg published a noted entitled ‘Canadian Economy On Thin Ice” in which he said, in summary, the major point in today’s Q1 GDP report was the modest contraction in real final domestic demand and the “mere” 0.5% growth built into Q2.
Rosenberg noted the monthly GDP showed March coming in soft at +0.1% month over month, and so the ‘hand off’ to Q2 is a “paltry” +0.5% annual rate.
Rosenberg said what that means is the disinflationary output gap is widening again and, as such, the Bank of Canada “would be well advised to get off its derriere”.
After all, he noted, +0.5% is not far off the flat number the Bank had estimated in its first tariff shock scenario in its latest Monetary Policy Report.
“To be sure, not the disaster in the second scenario (-1.3%), but the economy is sufficiently weak to allow the BoC to bring the policy rate down to the lower end of its neutral range of 2.25%-3.25%, which means at least two more cuts are required,” Rosenberg added.
In a separate note entitled ‘Technical Analysis – Global Equity Markets’, Walter Murphy at Rosenberg Research noted the TSX successfully tested important support during its tariff related decline and then rebounded.
It said the index is now on the verge of decisively breaking out above the 25,454-25,876 key resistance range.
“The ability to finish this week entirely above that range would do much to seal the deal and turn the range into important first support,” he added.
In turn, the research noted, a breakout would increase the potential for a challenge of the 27,250 area, plus or minus about 2%.
With that nearby potential in mind, Rosenberg Research said it is important to note the improving weekly Coppock Curve is crossing above its neutral zero line.
“The indicator is on pace to maintain this bullish bias into late June/early July.
This suggests a rally decisively into positive territory for the indicator and a probable follow-through of a breakout to higher highs for the TSX,” it added.
Rosenberg Research noted the Coppock indicator has had a bullish bias for a majority of the TSX sectors since late April.
This majority bullish condition has the potential to continue into July.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Volatility gripped stocks in the last stretch of the month, with the market bouncing from lows as Donald Trump said he expected to speak to Xi Jinping after accusing China of a trade-deal breach.
The S&P 500 almost wiped out a drop that earlier reached 1.2%, notching its best May since 1990.
Action was muted in bonds, though Treasuries headed toward their first monthly drop this year.
The dollar barely budged, while posting a fifth straight month of declines – the longest slide since 2020.
“We expect the markets to remain headline-driven, especially headlines related to tariffs,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
“As we start to see more clarity on trade, we expect more traditional drivers of markets, like earnings and fundamentals, to lead the way and drive sentiment.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is evaluating building an advanced production facility in the United Arab Emirates, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Gap Inc. tumbled after the apparel retailer predicted a tariff impact of as much as $300 million, offsetting better-than- expected results at its biggest brands.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. climbed after the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has expanded the data- analysis software company’s work across the federal government in recent months.
* Marvell Technology Inc. fell as analysts said the company failed to meet expectations on artificial intelligence.
* Costco Wholesale Corp. posted better-than-expected earnings in the third quarter, a sign that the nation’s largest club chain is flexing its scale and devoted following to navigate tariffs and economic turbulence.
* Ulta Beauty Inc. surged after first-quarter results topped estimates, signaling that shoppers are buying up beauty products despite growing economic concerns.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1354
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3471
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 143.92 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $104,577
* Ether fell 2.6% to $2,573.89
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,294.76 an ounce

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Our earth is degenerate in these latter days: bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents;
every man wants to write a book, and the end of the world is evidently approaching. -Assyrian tablet, c.2,800 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

May 29, 1453: Constantinople falls to the Turks.
May 29, 1919: Charles Strite files a patent for the automatic pop-up toaster, revolutionizing breakfast convenience.
May 29, 1953: Mount Everest summit firs reached.

G.K. Chesterton, author, b. 1874.
Bob Hope, comedian, b.1903.
John F. Kennedy, 35^th President, b. 1917.

There’s a humongous boulder on a cliff in Tonga. Now we know how it got there. Read More.

‘Unlike anything we have seen before’: Astronomers discover mysterious object firing strange signals at Earth every 44 minutes
ASKAP J1832-0911, which is periodically throwing out pulses of radio waves and X-rays, could be a brand-new cosmic object. Read More.

Giant 85 million-year-old mystery sea monster fossil finally identified
A brand new species of elasmosaur named Traskasaura sandrae has been identified from three specimens found on Vancouver Island. Read More.

The giants don’t need your money
A new campaign is encouraging visitors to the Giant’s Causeway in Northern Ireland to stop wedging coins between the stones. 

What was on the megalodon’s menu?
The prehistoric predator was widely thought to subsist on large marine mammals, but a new study of fossilized teeth has found more variety in its diet.
A mystery of cosmic proportions
Astronomers are trying to determine what kind of celestial object is emitting bright flashes of radio waves and X-rays that last for two minutes and repeat every 44 minutes.

It would be a sin to miss this
Residents of the theater-less Mississippi town that inspired “Sinners” will finally get to see the film. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Varanasi, India
A boy plays with a football on the banks of the Ganges at Scindia Ghat on a hot summer’s day
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Florida, USA
campground near the Everglades
Photograph: Rebecca Blackwell/AP

Oregon, US
Feral honeybees interact at the edge of their hive behind a fruit processing barn near Elkton in rural south-western Oregon
Photograph: Robin Loznak/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock
Market Closes for May 29^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42215.73	+177.03
		+0.28%
S&P 500	5912.17	+23.62
		+0.40%
NASDAQ	19175.87	+74.93
		+0.39%
TSX	26210.56	-72.89
		-0.28%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38432.98	+710.58
		+1.88%
HANG SENG	23573.38	+315.07
		+1.35%
SENSEX	81633.02	+320.70
		+0.39%
FTSE 100*	8716.45	-9.56
		-0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.205	3.245
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.499	3.544
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4180	4.4773
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9162	4.9758

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7242	0.7226
US $	1.3808	1.3838

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5701	0.6369
US $	1.1371	0.8794

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3300.85	3296.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.84	61.84

Market Commentary:
One thousand dollars left to earn interest at 8 per cent a year will grow to $43 quadrillion in 400 years, but the first hundred years are the hardest. –Sidney Homer, 1902-1983.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 26,210.56 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.5%. Eqb Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.4%.
Today, 119 of 217 shares fell, while 95 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.5%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 22.1% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.24t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.99% compared with 7.80% in the previous session and the average of 23.18% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -50.1130| -0.6| 10/15
Materials | -14.3858| -0.4| 13/36
Consumer Staples | -10.3173| -1.0| 3/7
Consumer Discretionary | -4.2976| -0.5| 3/7
Energy | -3.5691| -0.1| 17/23
Industrials | -3.5166| -0.1| 12/16
Health Care | -0.0343| -0.1| 2/2
Utilities | 1.0179| 0.1| 11/4
Information Technology | 2.4530| 0.1| 4/6
Real Estate | 4.0949| 0.9| 15/3
Communication Services | 5.7837| 1.0| 5/0
RBC | -61.5200| -3.5| 95.1| -0.5
Couche-Tard | -7.4170| -1.9| -28.2| -10.2
Cameco | -5.8330| -2.3| 12.8| 10.5
Suncor | 4.3660| 1.0| 49.4| -3.8
TD Bank | 8.3500| 0.7| -2.9| 24.0
Bank of Nova Scotia| 11.8000| 1.9| 55.4| -4.7
The Toronto Stock Exchange was down for only the second time in 17 sessions on Thursday, as investors took profits after it posted record closing highs on each of the prior three sessions, but losses may have been limited on the prospect of “more rationalized” sector-based tariffs being introduced by the United States.
Not helped by mixed commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 72.89 points at 26,210.56, amid mixed sectors, none of which were either up or down by more than 1%.
While the TSX was lower today, U.S. stock markets recorded gains.
This as one Macquarie strategist noted an overnight court ruling may speed up the introduction of “more rationalized” sector-based tariffs from the United States, while also noting Nvidia’s upbeat sales outlook was also contributing to the rally.
Yesterday evening, with U.S. markets closed, a three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled unanimously the emergency laws President Donald Trump invoked did not give him the unilateral authority to impose tariffs on nearly every country via his reciprocal tariff program, nor his retaliatory tariffs.
“For observers that believed that the reciprocal tariffs were adverse to the economy — in the sense that they would lead to an economic slowdown and higher measured consumer inflation and induced by the ‘tax effect’ on consumers and businesses — the prospect that the reciprocal tariffs have been nullified by the CIT is being taken as ‘good news’.
It has led to stocks being way up today, for example,” said Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie.
To be sure however, an appeals court temporarily restored the tariffs on Thursday afternoon while an appeal is heard.
The bottom line on tariffs, Wizman said, is that while the CIT’s ruling marks a first and significant legal challenge to the use of immediate emergency powers and the invocation of arbitrary ‘retaliation’, the ruling is not expansive as it pertains to executive powers in trade more generally, so long as executive actions address true emergencies, are subject to review, and do not contravene other laws.
“After all, it was evident on “Liberation Day” that the reciprocal tariffs were ill-formulated, overly abrupt, and too aggressive,” he added.
With that, Wizman said, the CIT’s ruling yesterday can speed up the introduction of “more rationalized”, sector-based tariffs, many of which may now be announced, but not yet imposed, soon.
“Because of this, we caution against excessive displays of ‘relief,’ especially in the USD.
More surprises of tariffs certainly lie around the corner,” he added.
For his part, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he “welcomes” the decision by the CIT to strike down President Trump’s broad-based tariffs on most countries.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower on Thursday as rising supplies checked investor optimism after a court blocked most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, though rising supply checked optimism.
WTI oil for July delivery closed down $0.90 to settle a US$60.94 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen down $0.82 to US$64.08.
Meanwhile, gold traded higher late afternoon on Thursday as the dollar dropped after a court blocked most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs while the U.S. economy weakened less than expected in the first quarter.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $17.90 to US$3,340.30 per ounce.
Staying on commodities, Rosenberg Research is ‘overweight’ Utilities and ‘underweight’ Energy, as outlined in a market strategy note it published today with a focus on U.S. equities.
“With valuations still stretched and clear headwinds for earnings, we recommend caution from a tactical viewpoint,” it said in summary.
The bullish view of Rosenberg Research on Utilities is derived from the fact that the U.S. power grid is “not ready for the growth in electricity demand and it needs to develop the transmission infrastructure that enables load sharing during periods of peak demand”.
According to the research, Utilities are “undisputedly” the biggest beneficiaries of the sharp rise in electricity demand and are available at a PEG ratio of 1.2x, a level it finds “attractive given the risk/reward calculus at this juncture.”
As a sector highly integrated with the global market, Energy has been a relative underperformer on a year-to-date basis following the April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement that clouded the global macroeconomic outlook, Rosenberg said.
It cited some factors likely to limit the upside to energy prices over the next 12 months, potentially higher U.S. shale production linked to policy shifts by the Trump 2.0 Administration, the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and an uncertain economic outlook.
Additionally, a protectionist trade policy will likely lead to a firm U.S. dollar, which is a net negative for most commodities, including oil, it added.
“Our bearish view on oil and oil-related equities does not currently factor in a full-fledged Ukraine/Russia ceasefire, which, if consummated, will create more downside price pressure.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders cheering solid results from Nvidia Corp. had to face the harsh reality of slowing economic data and legal uncertainties around Donald Trump’s trade war.
The president told Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell he’s making a mistake for not cutting rates.
The S&P 500 pared most of an advance that earlier approached 1%.
A federal appeals court offered Trump a temporary reprieve from a ruling threatening to throw out the bulk of his tariff agenda.
Treasuries rose on bets the Fed will slash rates twice this year and after a solid $44 billion sale of seven-year notes.
The dollar fell.
“We expect further market volatility ahead as headlines on both trade and fiscal policy emerge,” said Ulrike Hoffmann- Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We still expect US equities to rise over the next 12 months, but near-term gains this year are likely to be more limited.”
The US economy shrank at the start of the year, restrained by weaker consumer spending and an even bigger impact from trade than initially reported.
Pending sales of previously owned homes last month fell by the most since September 2022, while a rise in recurring jobless claims signaled higher unemployment.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%.
Nvidia led gains in megacaps, up over 3%.
Salesforce Inc. reported signs of traction in its new AI products, but that wasn’t enough to ease investor anxieties over a long trend of slowing revenue growth.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. said Newark disruptions will cut into profits.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell five basis points to 4.43%.
A dollar gauge lost 0.4%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Best Buy Co. reduced its sales and profit outlook as the electronics retailer grapples with tariffs on imports from China, its top source of goods.
* Wells Fargo & Co. resolved another regulatory punishment, the seventh this year, as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency terminated its 2015 agreements relating to the company’s previously held financial subsidiaries.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is partnering with defense contractor Anduril Industries Inc. to develop new products for the US military, including an artificial intelligence-powered helmet with virtual and augmented reality features.
* Synopsys Inc., a top maker of chip-design software, suspended its financial guidance for the current quarter and fiscal year after receiving word from the US government about new restrictions on exports to China.
* HP Inc.’s profit outlook fell short of estimates, and it cut the annual earnings forecast, pointing toward a weaker economy and continuing costs from US tariffs on goods from China.
* Walt Disney Co. is expanding a program of perks for subscribers to its flagship Disney+ streaming service and adding one for Hulu customers.
* Kohl’s Corp. reported better-than-expected comparable sales, a positive sign amid a tumultuous run of events for the retailer.
* Foot Locker Inc.’s sales slump persisted in the latest quarter, a potential headache for Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. as it prepares to acquire the struggling sneaker chain.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1367
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3494
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 144.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $105,764.73
* Ether rose 0.6% to $2,651.93
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $60.91 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,316.34 an ounce

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
It’s hard to beat a person who never gives up. -Babe Ruth, 1895-1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
May 28, 1936:  Alan Turing’s seminal paper, “On Computable Numbers,” is submitted for publication. Go to article. 
May 28, 1937: German automaker Volkswagen is founded to mass-produce a low-priced “people’s car”.  The company is originally operated by a Nazi organization.

May 28, 1892: Sierra Club founded.

Ian Fleming, writer, b. 1908.
Rudolph Giuliani, former NYC mayor, b.1944.

Watch mesmerizing 1,000-foot-tall lava fountains: Kilauea volcano erupting in ways not seen for 40 years.

James Webb telescope breaks own record, discovering farthest known galaxy in the universe .

Genomes from ancient Maya people reveal collapse of population and civilization 1,200 years ago.

Earth’s core is ‘leaking’ gold, study finds.

3 ancient Egyptian tombs dating to the New Kingdom discovered near Luxor.

Harry Potter TV show casts its stars
HBO has finally found a trio of young actors to play Harry Potter, Hermione Granger and Ron Weasley in its upcoming series about the magical world of witchcraft and wizardry. (HBO, like CNN, is owned by Warner Bros. Discovery.)

Stop stealing the stones, folks
A city in Belgium is asking tourists not to take a piece of its UNESCO-recognized medieval streets home with them. 
RIP
Rock guitarist/producer Rick Derringer dies
During his six-decade music career, Derringer released the hit singles “Hang On Sloopy” with his band The McCoys, and “Rock and Roll, Hoochie Koo” from his solo album “All American Boy.” He also worked with numerous artists — including Ringo Starr, Steely Dan, B.B. King and Barbra Streisand — and produced “Weird Al” Yankovic’s first six albums.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hawaii, US
The Kīlauea volcano erupts, the latest in a series since Sunday
Photograph: M Patrick/United States Geological Survey/EPA

Woubrugge, Netherlands
A superyacht, built for the former Starbucks US chief executive Howard Schultz, heads to Rotterdam. The vessel, which is 101.5 metres (333ft) long and 13.5 metres wide, dwarfs the town
Photograph: Josh Walet/ANP/AFP/Getty Images

Rochefort, France
Commuters stand on a nacelle suspended from the metal deck of an aerial ferry bridge to cross the Charente River in western France. The bridge, inaugurated in 1900, was the main crossing over the river until 1967
Photograph: Christophe Archambault/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 28^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42098.70	-244.95
		-0.58%
S&P 500	5888.55	-32.99
		-0.56%
NASDAQ	19100.94	-98.22
		-0.51%
TSX	26283.45	+14.46
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37722.40	-1.71
		—
HANG SENG	23258.31	-123.68
		-0.53%
SENSEX	81312.32	-239.31
		-0.29%
FTSE 100*	8726.01	-52.04
		-0.59%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.245	3.256
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.544	3.549
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4773	4.4436
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9758	4.9511

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7226	0.7240
US $	1.3838	1.3812

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5598	0.6411
US $	1.1268	0.8874

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3296.70	3342.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.84	60.89

Market Commentary:
No one can possibly achieve any real and lasting success or “get rich” in business by being a conformist. –J. Paul Getty, 1892-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 26,283.45 in Toronto.
National Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
Definity Financial Corp. had the largest increase, rising 11.3%.
Today, 116 of 217 shares rose, while 95 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.8%
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 22.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.23t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.80% compared with 7.93% in the previous session and the average of 24.21% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 19.7999| 0.6| 34/13
Financials | 18.8633| 0.2| 14/11
Consumer Staples | 4.3855| 0.4| 7/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4397| 0.4| 5/5
Industrials | 2.8333| 0.1| 19/9
Information Technology | 1.1144| 0.0| 2/8
Health Care | 0.4195| 0.7| 2/1
Real Estate | -0.4025| -0.1| 10/9
Communication Services | -3.7511| -0.6| 0/4
Utilities | -5.3222| -0.5| 6/9
Energy | -26.9361| -0.6| 17/23
National Bank of Canada | 13.5300| 3.8| 136.2| 2.5
Bank of Montreal | 11.4000| 1.5| 34.3| 5.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 8.1850| 1.4| -1.8| 45.0
Bank of Nova Scotia| -6.2910| -1.0| 35.9| -6.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -7.3730| -1.2| 58.9| -4.1
Enbridge | -8.7130| -0.9| -35.2| 3.4
The Toronto Stock Exchange just about posted a third successive record intraday and closing high on Wednesday, buoyed by the financial sector as Canada’s big banks have, thus far in to their second quarter earnings period at least, generally beat market expectations and not given too much cause for concern around consumer and business credit.
At the end today’s session, the TSX was up a modest 14.5 points at 26,283.45, but this was after it quickly recovered from dipping into negative territory in the closing minutes.
The index is now up 15 of the last 16 sessions.
Most sectors were lower, but there were gains for Health Care (+0.36%), Financials (0.22%) and Industrials (+0.1%).
Of commodities, The Wall Street Journal noted gold futures settled the day lower, unable to break out of a negative stretch, with gold finishing lower in three out of the past four sessions.
The front-month contract closed down 0.2% to US$3,293.60 a troy ounce.
Separately, The WSJ noted oil futures rebounded from the previous day’s selloff as the OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting ended with agreement to keep quotas in place through 2026.
WTI settled up 1.6% at US$61.84 a barrel, and Brent rose 1.3% to US$64.90 a barrel.
On sectors and individual stocks, market watchers continue to keep a close eye on second quarter results currently coming from Canada’s big banks, with CIBC (CM.TO) and RBC (RY.TO, RY) next slated to release their financials tomorrow morning.
In a preview note published earlier this month, National Bank said it expected CIBC to report an EPS of $1.93 versus a consensus $1.88.
It didn’t at the time expect CIBC to announce a dividend increase.
National Bank in looking at key themes for CIBC said a “relatively conservative” provision build was expected; a “bullish domestic growth outlook could be dampened”; and noted the pace of buybacks had decelerated “modestly.”
On provisions, National Bank expected CM to be “one of the more conservative banks” in terms of adding to performing provisions this quarter.
It noted that since the end of 2023, the bank has boosted its performing ACL ratio by 5 bps, above the 4 bps peer average (2 bps ex. BMO).
This increase included 9 bps of performing PCLs during Q1 2025, which is on par with National’s expectations for the group this quarter.
For what it’s worth, National Bank said CIBC was also more conservative during the early stages of COVID.
During Q2 2020, it added 24 bps to its performing ACL ratio, which was higher than the 20 bps group average.
It was also a bank that took a more moderate approach to releasing provisions when economic conditions changed/improved, National Bank added.
In terms of the domestic growth outlook, National Bank noted CM delivered strong domestic loan growth during Q1 2025, highlighted by 8% Y/Y (3% Q/Q) commercial loan growth, with management expressing optimism on strong lending pipelines.  Additionally, card balances rose 10% Y/Y (+3% Q/Q).
“However, given the volatile macro environment and uncertainty related to the tariff situation that is affecting both consumers and businesses, the growth outlook could dampen this quarter,” National Bank added.
On buybacks, National Bank noted CM implemented a 20 million share buyback program in September 2024.
Over the first three quarters of the program, CM has repurchased 5 million, 3.5 million and 2.4 million shares, respectively.
At this pace, National said it is unlikely that CM will repurchase its total program capacity, especially if management cites the macro environment as a factor to explain a more conservative capital retention strategy.
National notes that CM’s Q1 2025 CET 1 ratio of 13.5% is above its minimum target range of 12.75%-13% (i.e., the base level assumption behind its 15%+ medium-term ROE objective).
National Bank said it expected RBC to report an EPS of $3.26 versus a consensus $3.13.
At the time, it expected RBC to announce a dividend increase.
National Bank in looking at key themes for RBC said updated ‘peak PCLs’ timing was expected to be pushed to 2026; the Capital Markets business should be strong, but with one caveat; and it noted the buyback pace accelerated during the quarter.
At a conference in January 2024, National Bank noted that RBC stated that it expected “peak PCLs” to be experienced at the end of that fiscal year.
“At the time, there were questions related to potential performing provision releases, which would only take place subsequent to the bank believing it had experienced the highest losses in the current credit cycle.
That timing has since been pushed back to year-end 2025.
And now, National Bank believes RBC will be pushing back “peak PCL” expectations to sometime during fiscal 2026.
“Of note,” it said, “weak economic activity and a rising domestic unemployment rate make it highly unlikely that we will see a positive shift in the credit cycle this year.”
National Bank noted that “favourable” trading conditions resulted in RBC reporting $1.6 billion of trading revenues during Q1 2025, a figure that represented a 36% Y/Y increase and the highest figure reported by RBC since Q3 2020.
It said investors expect a similarly strong outcome.
National Bank added: “The one caveat, in our view, is that RY may experience some hits to its trading revenues if it is required to book any losses on its High Yield origination business.
Although conditions haven’t been as bad this quarter as they were during prior periods that exhibited a material widening of high yield spreads (e.g., Q2 2020, Q3 2022), we believe there could still be some unwelcome volatility affecting this business during Q2 2025.”
National Bank noted RBC implemented a 30 million share buyback program on June 12, 2024.
Buyback activity was tepid in the initial phases of the program, with only 2.8m shares repurchased by the end of Q1 2025.
National Bank believes RBC was retaining capital in anticipation of improved organic growth volumes, having emphasized organic growth potential (mainly in its U.S. business) during the Q4 2024 earnings call.
However, National Bank said, the macro/tariff situation has depressed credit demand.
National believes RBC shifted its capital deployment priorities during Q2 2025, having repurchased 3 mln shares (i.e., 10% of program capacity).
“Similar to our expectations from other banks with active buyback programs, we will be monitoring commentary regarding buyback appetite in the coming quarters,” National Bank added.
Price: 26283.45, Change: +14.5, Percent Change: +0.05
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street halted its rebound in the run-up to results from Nvidia Corp. — the last of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps to report.
Treasuries pared losses after a solid $70 billion US sale.
Following a rally in the previous session, the S&P 500 fell.
The Trump administration is moving to restrict the sale of chip design software to China, people familiar with the matter said, as the US government evaluates a broader policy announcement on the issue.
Cadence Design Systems Inc. and Synopsys Inc. tumbled over 9.5%.
Nvidia wiped out a 1.3% advance.
“Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings report is pivotal not just for Nvidia but for the entire stock market, as it can rejuvenate investor optimism across the board and help investors to focus on the power of AI and less on headlines out of Washington on tariffs and taxes,” said James Demmert at Main Street Research.
At Interactive Brokers, Steve Sosnick says he doesn’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Nvidia’s earnings are the most- consequential report of any given quarter.
“It is no coincidence that the recent bull-market run started in late 2022, almost exactly coinciding with the release of ChatGPT,” he said.
“And no stock has epitomized the AI gold rush more than Nvidia.”
As expected, minutes of the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting reflected a wait-and-see approach from officials.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.45%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%.
Tesla Inc. is poised to begin its long-awaited robotaxi service in Austin on June 12, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 4.48%.
A dollar gauge added 0.3%.
Oil climbed as traders weighed risks to Iranian and Russian supplies.
Read: Why Is Nvidia the King of AI Chips, and Can It Last?:
“It’s hard to recall a time when so many investors were so focused on the earnings outcome of a single stock,” said Ryan Grabinski at Strategas Securities.
“We have no clear view on how Nvidia’s earnings will land given the many variables at play, but what is certain is the persistent attacks from both the US and China leaves the company highly sensitive to headline risk.”
Nvidia and fellow megacaps were among the biggest decliners in last month’s rout that sent the S&P 500 to the brink of a bear market.
Many of the stocks have recouped much of the losses after President Donald Trump temporarily paused the stiffest levies and earnings showed demand remains intact.
The chipmaker’s surge from its April lows hasn’t been accompanied by high volumes, suggesting some investors might have missed out on the rally.
An upbeat earnings report would bode well for US stocks as investors have about $7 trillion parked in cash funds, BBVA strategists have estimated.
Traders also kept a close eye on the latest headlines around global trade negotiations.
The European Union’s trade chief, Maros Sefcovic, plans to speak to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Thursday, seeking to fast-track negotiations to reach a deal before a July 9 deadline.
Trump bristled at suggestions that Wall Street believed he was ultimately unwilling to follow through on extreme tariff threats, saying Wednesday his repeated retreats were strategic efforts to exert trade concessions.
“The latest trade developments remain in line with our base case that pragmatism will ultimately prevail over confrontation,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“So far, the Trump administration has appeared to temper its more strident tariff policies in response to signs of distress in markets.”
Assuming trade tensions continue to ease, she sees room for the equity market rally to resume into 2026, with the S&P 500 reaching around 6,400 by June of next year. The gauge hovered near 5,900.
“Headline risk obviously remains a short-term driver of the tape, creating volatile back-and-forth action,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“We thus anticipate further choppiness for the remainder of the year along these lines, but with a general upward bias above the 5,500-5,750 range and the potential for new highs at some point.”
Investor exposure to equities is still low enough that the “path of least resistance” for the market is higher, according to Barclays Plc’s Emmanuel Cau.
Absent a volatility shock, “systematic buying could continue to help equities to grind higher,” he wrote in a note.
“The reactivity of the market continues, with a surge following the delay of the tariff implementation, though the equity market has settled into a range that suggests the panic from April is behind us, but further catalysts are necessary to drive the next phase of the bull market,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.

Corporate Highlights:
* President Trump said that the US government would retain guarantees and an oversight role over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac even as he pursues a public offering for the mortgage giants.
* Macy’s Inc. posted better-than-expected quarterly results — a sign the company’s strategy of focusing on its best-performing locations is paying off despite weakening consumer sentiment and tariff volatility.
* Abercrombie & Fitch Co. upped its full-year outlook, suggesting confidence in its ability to navigate the changing tariff landscape.
* Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc.’s chairman pushed back on criticism of its pending acquisition of struggling footwear chain Foot Locker Inc.
* Vail Resorts Inc., a ski resort operator, said Executive Chairperson Rob Katz will return to the role of chief executive officer, replacing Kirsten Lynch, who stepped down.
* Honeywell International Inc. agreed to cooperate with Elliott Investment Management and add a member of the activist shareholder to its board as the industrial firm prepares to split into three companies.
* The Trump administration issued a stripped-down license to Chevron Corp. to remain in Venezuela, allowing the company to conduct minimal maintenance on equipment but prohibiting it from producing oil in the sanctioned South American nation.
* Bank of Montreal topped estimates as net interest income came in higher than expected even as the company set aside more money to cover loans that are still in good standing, highlighting growing concern about the fate of the North American economy.
* BCE Inc., Canada’s largest telecom company by revenue, will set up a network of artificial intelligence data centers across the country, mirroring the aggressive AI infrastructure build- out happening in the US and abroad.
* DeepSeek said it has upgraded the R1 artificial-intelligence model that helped propel the Chinese startup to global prominence earlier this year.
* Shein Group Ltd. is considering switching its planned initial public offering to Hong Kong from London, people familiar with the matter said, representing the latest twist in the fast- fashion retailer’s turbulent pursuit of going public.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.45%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1290
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3465
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 144.89 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.5% to $106,914.73
* Ether fell 1.9% to $2,617.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.55%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $61.55 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,296.98 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Don’t mind anything anyone tells you about anyone else.  Judge everyone and everything for yourself. – Henry James, 1843-1916.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
May 27, 1851:  The world’s first chess tournament is held in London.  Adolf Anderssen, a maths teacher from Wroclaw, wins the event.
MAY 27, 1937: The Golden Gate Bridge connecting San Francisco and Marin County, Calif., opened. Go to article.
May 27, 1930: Scotch tape is patented.

Isadora Duncan, dancer, b.1878.
Rachel Carson, writer, b. 1907.
Hubert H. Humphrey, politician, b. 1911.

American submarine, lost for over a century, discovered ‘remarkably intact’ off the coast of San Diego
A submarine that sank over 100 years ago during WWI has been surveyed off the coast of San Diego. Read More

Scientists may have discovered the most powerful particle collider in the universe
Scientists may have discovered the most powerful particle colliders in the universe — and they’re strewn throughout our galaxy just waiting to blow. Read More.

Groundbreaking amplifier could lead to ‘super lasers’ that make the internet 10 times faster
Scientists have designed an amplifier that can transmit 10 times more information per second than current fiber-optic systems can, which could be helpful for medical treatment and diagnosis. Read More.

Team USA takes gold in Sweden
For the first time since 1933, the US men’s hockey team triumphed at the IIHF World Championship tournament. During the trophy presentation, Team USA held up the jersey of Johnny Gaudreau, the former USA and NHL player who died last year, along with his brother, after they were fatally struck by a suspected drunken driver.

Billie Eilish triumphs at AMAs
Although she didn’t attend the American Music Awards ceremony in Las Vegas, Eilish won all seven awards she was nominated for, including artist of the year, album of the year and song of the year.

And the Palme d’Or goes to …
Iranian director, screenwriter and producer Jafar Panahi, who had previously been imprisoned by the Iranian government, received the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival for his new movie.

Lorde of the dance
Fans attending a Lorde-themed club night in Sydney, Australia, were shocked and thrilled when the Grammy-winning singer showed up.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
A vendor walks with his hats and beachwear along Ipanema beach
Photograph: Bruna Prado/AP

Bangkok, Thailand
An employee cleans mirrored floors at the Mahanakhon Skyverse digital art exhibition at King Power Mahanakhon
Photograph: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP/Getty Images

Texas, US
The sun sets as SpaceX’s mega rocket Starship is prepared for a test flight from the Space X Starbase
Photograph: Eric Gay/AP
Market Closes for May 27^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42343.65	+740.58
		+1.78%
S&P 500	5921.54	+118.72
		+2.05%
NASDAQ	19199.16	+461.95
		+2.47%
TSX	26268.99	+195.86
		+0.75%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37724.11	+192.58
		+0.51%
HANG SENG	23381.99	+99.66
		+0.43%
SENSEX	81551.63	-624.82
		-0.76%
FTSE 100*	8778.05	+60.08
		+0.69%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.256	3.327
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.549	3.626
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4436	N.A
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9511	N.A

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7240	0.7280
US $	1.3812	1.3736

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5661	0.6385
US $	1.1336	0.8821

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3342.65	N.A
Oil
WTI Crude Future	60.89	62.18

Market Commentary:
Never invest in anything that eats or needs repainting. –Billy Rose, 1899-1966.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.8%, or 195.87 to 26,269.00 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since May 15.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 137 of 217 shares rose, while 76 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.9%.
Inter Rent Real Estate Investment Trust had the largest increase, rising 14.8%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.7%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 22.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 6.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.2t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.93% compared with 8.23% in the previous session and the average of 24.99% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 85.8863| 1.0| 23/2
Information Technology | 37.4354| 1.5| 7/3
Consumer Staples | 27.0891| 2.7| 8/2
Real Estate | 11.9047| 2.6| 18/1
Utilities | 11.5818| 1.1| 12/2
Consumer Discretionary | 10.7391| 1.2| 6/4
Industrials | 8.0591| 0.2| 16/11
Energy | 4.9001| 0.1| 18/21
Communication Services | 4.0921| 0.7| 3/2
Health Care | 1.2327| 2.0| 4/0
Materials | -7.0466| -0.2| 22/28
Shopify | 35.5600| 2.9| -23.1| -3.6
Couche-Tard | 18.3800| 4.9| 58.9| -8.7
RBC | 14.6800| 0.8| -17.4| 2.6
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -3.3520| -0.6| 17.5| 43.0
Celestica | -4.0470| -2.9| -7.7| 23.8
Wheaton Precious Metals | -4.2970| -1.1| 21.8| 46.2
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday achieved a second successive day of record intraday and closing highs while taking its winning run to 14 out of the last 15 sessions, even as credit guidance from Canada’s big banks and tax moves in the United States are seen potentially weighing on the financial sector.
Tuesday’s gains on the resources heavy TSX were also achieved despite lower commodity prices, but with all sectors higher.
The index closed up 195.87points at 26,269.
Of commodities today, The Wall Street Journal noted with gold the front-month contract closed down 1.9% to US$3,299.10 a troy ounce as the U.S. dollar index trended higher.
The WSJ also noted oil futures settled lower with expectations of further OPEC+ production increases in July outweighing the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, which lifted equities.
WTI settled down 1% at US$60.89 a barrel, and Brent fell 1% to $64.09.
Among sectors, Health Care (+1.9%) and Utilities (1.1%), followed by Financials (+0.9%) led the way.
In relation to sectors and stocks, one potential stumbling block for the overall market may lie in wait within the second quarter results currently coming from Canada’s big banks.
Scotiabank (BNS.TO, BNS) earlier today missed market expectations for its second quarter as the bank put aside more money for potentially bad loans ahead.
Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO, BMO) is slated to follow with its Q2 update on Wednesday morning, and National Bank in a preview note published earlier in May noted “credit guidance has been a moving target” for that bank.
“Commercial loan growth outlook likely weakens,” National Bank said, while also noting BMO’s buyback activity was “tracking program capacity.”
National Bank is forecasting earnings per share from BMO of $2,60 versus a consensus $2.49, but no dividend increase.
On credit guidance, National Bank wrote: “We believe BMO investors are still wary of the bank’s credit performance, especially in light of fiscal 2024, during which actual loan loss provisions exceeded expectations by 60%.
” To be fair, National Bank said, BMO has turned a corner, with Q1 2025 PCLs down nearly 35% quarter over quarter from the Q4 2024 peak.
It noted management has guided to an impaired PCL ratio on par with 2024’s 47 bps ratio, albeit improving over the course of the year.
“Given the economic outlook clouded by U.S. tariff plans, we believe investors are bracing for yet another shift in credit guidance given BMO’s elevated exposure to both commercial lending and to the U.S. market (i.e., where rate cuts may be pushed back),” National Bank added.
In terms of commercial loan growth, National Bank wrote: “Overshadowed by the credit trends over the past year has been BMO’s lacklustre loan growth, notably in the commercial portfolio.
Over the past 12 months, the U.S. P&C segment has seen a decrease in commercial balances of 1%, providing little evidence of Bank of the West revenue synergy potential.
In Canada, growth has been a positive surprise, with the portfolio expanding by 7% over the past year with no discernible trend of deceleration. However, this positive trend may shift.”
National Bank noted that at its Annual Financial Services Conference in Montreal this past March, the bank’s head of Commercial Banking provided some updated perspective on commercial loan growth.
In the U.S., BMO continues to anticipate positive loan growth in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, in Canada, it expects “moderate” loan growth, which implies from recent levels.
On buybacks, National Bank noted BMO announced a 20 million share buyback program on January 17, 2025.
The bank repurchased 1.2 million shares in the last month of Q1 2025 when the program first began and repurchased another 7 million shares in Q2.
At an average price of $137.5, or 2.5% below its current price, this quarter’s buybacks were a “good/opportunistic” use of capital, in National Bank’s opinion.
National will look for shifts to BMO’s buyback plans, which may be dictated by the macro backdrop, provisioning activity (e.g. the level of performing build during the quarter) or organic growth considerations.
Meanwhile, on another topic that could impact Canada’s financial sector, Rosenberg Research sees tax policy changes in the United States having a “significant set of implications” for Canadian tax payments to the U.S., for both investors and firms.
“In their search for revenue,” the research said, “House Republicans cobbled together a strange and vague grab bag of tax changes, many of which affect foreign individuals and multinationals.
Most of these policies conflict with existing Canada-U.S. tax treaties (clearly not a major priority for the Trump team or Congress) and layer on even more uncertainty on top of the trade file.”
Rosenberg Research noted Canada’s Digital Services Tax on U.S. multinationals, “a recent irritant to bilateral relations”, seems very likely to be a trigger for planned tax retaliation.
Section 899 of the bill has a mechanism that retaliates for “discriminatory or unfair taxes,” and the response would raise the current 5% withholding rate by +5 percentage points per year, up to a maximum of 50%, keeping this measure in place until the “unfair” tax is removed by the targeted country.
The research said: “This would have clear negative implications for Canadian firms, especially those in the Financials sector.
Individuals could also be hit with the same change (with withholding taxes going from 15% to 50% over several years).
The undertaxed profits rule is also ambiguously written but could affect certain types of Canadian multinationals.”
It added: “This would have unpredictable consequences — likely leading to lower equity valuations in the short run, but potentially leading Canadian investors to “return home” and develop a stronger home bias for domestic equities.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street kicked off the week with a rally in stocks as consumer confidence rebounded sharply while the US and the European Union sped up trade talks.
A global surge in bonds also helped sentiment.
As equities halted a four-day slide, the S&P 500 climbed 2%.
Nvidia Corp. paced gains in megacaps ahead of its results.
Treasuries got a boost, pushing the 30-year yield below 5% on signs Japan will be ready to calm jittery debt markets.
The moves in the US extended after a sale of two-year notes was met with solid bidding metrics.
The dollar rose against all developed-market currencies.
President Donald Trump noted he was encouraged the EU is speeding up negotiations on trade, days after he said the bloc would face 50% tariffs if they fail to reach a deal with the US.
Trump extended a deadline for those taxes to take effect to July 9 after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“The EU tariff reprieve until July 9 is an important step in the overall resolution of this trade situation, as it increases the chances that trade deals will continue to come to fruition, which is the exact messaging that the market is hoping for,” said Robert Ruggirello at Brave Eagle Wealth Management.
Meantime, global bonds rallied as Japanese authorities signaled, they are considering adjusting their debt plan after a selloff that drove the nation’s long-term borrowing costs to the highest levels in decades.
Worries about the ability of governments to cover massive budget deficits weighed on developed-market debt in recent days.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 2.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.8%.
Nvidia rallied over 3% while Apple Inc. halted its longest selloff in more than three years.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell seven basis points to 4.44%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%.
The yen sank 1%.

Corporate Highlights:
* An upbeat earnings report by Nvidia on Wednesday would bode well for a rally in US equities as investors have about $7 trillion parked in cash funds, according to BBVA strategists.
* Salesforce Inc. has agreed to buy Informatica Inc. for about $8 billion, sealing the deal on a software firm that had seen its shares plunge by as much as 59% since the companies’ first talks failed last year.
* The US government is poised to receive a so-called golden share in United States Steel Corp. as a condition for approving Nippon Steel Corp.’s proposed acquisition of the American company.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. was upgraded to hold from reduce at HSBC, which cited “the recent re-rating on the back of the Saudi AI deal, as well as tariff de-escalation.”
* The Swiss National Bank sold its entire stake in oil producer Chevron Corp. because it now considers investments in the stock to breach its portfolio guidelines, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Temu owner PDD Holdings Inc.’s sales and profit missed estimates, underscoring how trade tensions between Beijing and Washington are taking a toll on its business.
* Bank of Nova Scotia missed estimates after setting aside more money than expected for bad credit as tariffs hit its Canadian and Mexican operations.
* The US Supreme Court cleared a major obstacle to Rio Tinto Plc’s construction of North America’s largest copper mine, rejecting an appeal by a Native American group that said the Arizona project will destroy a sacred area.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 3.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1330
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3505
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 144.33 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $109,916.53
* Ether rose 4.7% to $2,688.59
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.44%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $61 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,304.56 an ounce

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
When your work speaks for itself, don’t interrupt. –Henry Kaiser, 1882-1967.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Monday.
May 26, 1896: The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first published. The average price of the 11 initial stocks was 40.94.  Go to article – Secrets of the Dow Jones Industrials
May 26, 1908: Engineers make the first major oil discovery in Iran, transforming the region’s economy and politics.

May 26, 1805: Napoleon crowned King of Italy.
May 26, 1805: Lewis and Clark see the Rocky Mountains.

Jahn Wayne, actor, b. 1907.
Sally Ride, astronaut, b. 1951.

Tomb built for Alexander the Great’s best friend is aligned with winter solstice, study suggests.

‘Trash’ found deep inside a Mexican cave turns out to be 500-year-old artifacts from a little-known culture.

Powerful Mother’s Day geomagnetic storm created radio-disrupting bubbles in Earth’s upper atmosphere.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

California gardeners plant native species in parks to prevent wildfire spread
‘It’s an experiment in design through maintenance,’ said Jenny Jones (pictured), director of Test Plot. ‘We bring our skills as designers to the park, but do it in a more immediate, low-budget, low-tech way that is very community friendly’
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian

Terremoto’s Burn Scar Test Plot, also in Elysian Park, was covered in black mustard and eucalyptus, two non-native and flammable species that burned during 2023 fires
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian

‘In Los Angeles, we see a lot of people fleeing the film and TV industry, which is struggling right now, and finding purpose in care and stewardship,’ Jones said. ‘It gives you a place to put your energy.’
Pictured: a lacy phaecelia plant in front of elegant clarkias at the Elysian Test Plot
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian
Market Closes for May 26^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	Market Closed	N.A
S&P 500	Market Closed	N.A
NASDAQ	Market Closed	N.A
TSX	26073.13	+193.18
		+0.75%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37531.53	+371.06
		+1.00%
HANG SENG	23282.33	-318.93
		-1.35%
SENSEX	82176.45	+455.37
		+0.56%
FTSE 100*	Market Closed	N.A

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.327	3.352
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.626	3.648
U.S. 10 Year Bond	NA	4.5110
U.S. 30 Year Bond	NA	5.0374

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7280	0.7283
US $	1.3736	1.3730

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5644	0.6392
US $	1.1388	0.8781

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	N.A.	3342.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.18	61.84

Market Commentary:
Nothing is safe; nothing is secure in any field of life. -Gerald Loeb, The Battle for Investment Survival.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.7%, or 193.18 to 26,073.13 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on May 15.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.8%.
ATS Corp. had the largest increase, rising 20.3%.
Today, 188 of 217 shares rose, while 25 fell; all sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 21.5% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.17t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.23% compared with 10.33% in the previous session and the average of 25.85% over the past

Index Points
Information Technology | 47.2459| 1.9| 10/0
Financials | 41.7235| 0.5| 20/5
Industrials | 32.8242| 1.0| 25/3
Energy | 29.1315| 0.7| 38/3
Materials | 17.6671| 0.5| 44/4
Consumer Discretionary | 8.8446| 1.0| 9/1
Consumer Staples | 6.2812| 0.6| 8/2
Real Estate | 4.8877| 1.1| 18/0
Utilities | 4.1043| 0.4| 12/3
Communication Services | 0.2856| 0.0| 3/2
Health Care | 0.1793| 0.3| 1/2
Shopify | 32.6600| 2.8| -59.5| -6.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 10.3500| 1.4| -37.6| 7.2
Cameco | 7.6340| 3.1| -45.8| 12.4
Power of Canada | -1.1010| -0.6| -77.8| 12.8
Nutrien | -1.4780| -0.5| -71.8| 26.6
Ivanhoe Mines | -10.4600| -16.2| 219.7| -36.9
Now down just one session in the last 14, the Toronto Stock Exchange climbed to a fresh record close on Monday as a better-than-expected result last week from TD Bank (TD.TO, TD) is seen pointing to potential earnings upside for Canada’s other big banks yet to report, starting with Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO, BNS) tomorrow morning.
Despite deflated commodity prices, the resources heavy market finished up 193.18 points at 26,073.13, beating a prior recent record close by less than 20 points.
This comes after the TSX snapped a six-week winning streak last Friday.
But going in to today, the index was up near 4.2% month to date, and more than 4.6% year to date.
Among sectors, most were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index (+2.5%), Information Technology (+1.8%) and Industrials (+1%). Reflecting lower gold prices, Base Metals was slightly lower.
Of individual stocks, ATS Corporation (TSX and NYSE: ATS) jumped 20% after announcing that it has reached a settlement agreement with its Electric Vehicle customer with respect to the previously disclosed outstanding payments owed.
With markets in both the United States and the United Kingdom shuttered for holidays, Canadian stock pickers were able to focus on domestic matters likely to in focus over the week ahead, including the expected release Tuesday of second quarter earnings from Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO, BNS).
For Q2, FactSet is forecasting earnings per share of $1.55 versus $1.58 a year earlier and FactSet is forecasting revenues of $9,087.8 million.
In an earnings preview note published earlier this month National Bank forecast $1.59 versus a consensus of $1.55.
It also forecast a dividend increase.
Among key themes, National Bank expected the corporate segment to lead the way; said the provision build could diverge from peers; and added capital markets could provide a “relatively lower uplift.”
On Scotia’s corporate segment, National Bank said BNS’ balance sheet is positioned for lower rates, namely via lower funding costs.
It noted that since Q1 2024, the loss reported in this segment fell from a peak of $230 million during Q1 2024 to $177 million during Q1 2025.
Including Q1 2025’s performance, National Bank estimates a total reduction in corporate segment losses of near $230 million during fiscal 2025 (excl. KEY earnings pick-up), which will explain roughly 45-50% of total bank profit growth for the year.
On provisions, while National Bank expects most banks to build performing provisions above their recent run rates, it said BNS could diverge somewhat from this trend.
According to National Bank, the bank’s International Banking segment, which represents around 22% of total bank loans, may prove “a bit more resilient” in terms of credit outlook than many expect.
It bases this view on how (outside Mexico) the U.S. has not targeted most LatAm countries with elevated tariffs.
Separately, National Bank said, BNS may simply choose to run with a “leaner” level of performing provisions than its peers.
It noted that during COVID, from Q1 2020 to Q4 2020, BNS’ performing ACL ratio increased by around 60%, lower than the 85% increase for its average peer.
Moreover, when it came time to start releasing provisions, BNS did so more rapidly than its peers did, National Bank added.
On capital markets, National Bank said everyone is expecting the banks to report strong trading revenue performance this quarter, a silver lining to an otherwise unexciting growth environment.
National would not be surprised if BNS reports relatively weaker Capital Markets performance this quarter.
For starters, National noted, its trading revenues as a percentage of total revenues of 7% are lower than the 8.5% peer average.
“Moreover, we don’t believe that BNS will benefit as much from elevated equity derivatives trading activity as some of its peers may have,” it said.
Of commodities, Bloomberg noted oil fluctuated as the market weighed easing trade tensions against the outlook for rising OPEC+ supply.
Gold traded lower mid-afternoon Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump said he will delay a plan to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union to July from June, easing safe-haven buying. Gold for August delivery was last down $25.20 to US$3,369.30 per ounce.
US
All US markets are closed today for the Memoria Day Holiday.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. -Leo Tolstoy, 1828-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

May 23, 1784: Benjamin Franklin announces his invention of bifocals, enabling clear vision for both near and far distances.
May 23, 1873 Canada’s North West Mounted Police force was established. Go to article

May 23, 1895: NY Public Library founded.
Joan Collins, actress, b.1933.
Drew Carey, actor, b. 1961.

Prince William debuts new docuseries 
The six-part series offers a rare insight into “one of the most dangerous jobs on the planet.”

Time to break out the popcorn
Summer movie season kicks off this weekend. Here are 21 films you might want to check out.

‘Super-vision’ contact lenses let wearers see in the dark — even with their eyes closed
Researchers have developed new contact lenses that enable vision in the near-infrared range, and they could restore color perception to people with color blindness. Read More.

2,300-year-old gold ring found in Israel was likely buried by a betrothed girl
A gold ring with a red gemstone found in Israel dates to the Hellenistic period and may have been buried in a coming-of-age ritual. Read More.

‘Strange’ star pulses detected in search for extraterrestrial intelligence
A retired researcher has detected an unusual pulse in the light of nearby stars while looking for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence. Aliens are one possible explanation for the strange signal, but as with every other unexplained space phenomenon, it’s probably not aliens. Read More.

A dozen black holes may be ‘wandering’ through our galaxy — and they’re the rarest type in the universe
Dozens of ‘wandering’ black holes could be tumbling through our galaxy right now, new simulations hint. Their existence could help solve a longstanding cosmic puzzle. Read More.

An udderly confused cow found itself way up in the air over Switzerland, immortalized in this photo.

The mascot for a new Northwest soccer team got roasted by Stephen Colbert. “Not only is he horrifying, he’s wearing his own children as hair!” Colbert exclaimed.

Sometimes, all people need is someone to listen. A man with a sign and a Subaru set out to be that someone for people scattered across hundreds of miles, at no charge. What he’s discovered: “Life is not all sorrow and challenges. It’s actually pretty beautiful some of the time.” This story will make you think (and perhaps tear up). 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
Fireworks explode as the sails of the Sydney Opera House are illuminated at the start of the annual Vivid Sydney festival
Photograph: Ayush Kumar/AFP/Getty

Chelsea flower show 2025
photograph: Sarah Lee

Taicang, China
Containers stacked at a port in Jiangsu province
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 23^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41603.07	-256.02
		-0.61
S&P 500	5802.82	-39.19
		-0.67%
NASDAQ	18737.21	-188.52
		-1.00%
TSX	25879.95	+25.94
		+0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37160.47	+174.60
		+0.47%
HANG SENG	23601.26	+56.95
		+0.24
SENSEX	81721.08	+769.09
		+0.95%
FTSE 100*	8717.97	-21.29
		-0.24%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.352	3.373
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.648	3.666
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5110	4.5287
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0374	5.0395

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7283	0.7283
US $	1.3730	1.3856

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5610	0.6406
US $	1.1368	0.8796

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3342.65	3299.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.84	62.56

Market Commentary:
In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. -Warren Buffett, b. 1930.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.1%, or 25.94 to 25,879.95 in Toronto.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 10.0%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 18.1%.
Today, 129 of 217 shares rose, while 79 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.2%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on May 20, 2025, and 20.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.17t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.33% compared with 14.61% in the previous session and the average of 27.35% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 50.4992| 1.2| 34/5
Materials | 44.6240| 1.3| 40/9
Consumer Staples | 7.2257| 0.7| 9/1
Utilities | 3.4040| 0.3| 10/4
Health Care | 0.3265| 0.5| 2/2
Real Estate | -1.0619| -0.2| 8/9
Consumer Discretionary | -2.2185| -0.3| 2/7
Communication Services | -2.9374| -0.5| 0/4
Financials | -6.1746| -0.1| 13/11
Industrials | -23.3138| -0.7| 9/19
Information Technology | -44.4308| -1.8| 2/8
Cameco | 22.4500| 10.0| 194.8| 9.0
Enbridge | 9.1720| 1.0| -46.1| 3.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 8.9260| 1.6| -14.6| 43.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -9.7590| -1.3| -23.6| 5.7
Canadian National | -11.9500| -2.1| -3.5| -1.2
Shopify | -31.3800| -2.6| -19.7| -8.8
The Toronto Stock Exchange has now been down just one session in the last 13 after the resources heavy index rose again on Friday, buoyed by higher commodity prices, but even as Rosenberg Research remains underweight on the Energy sector and while investors are unsure of what to expect from the Bank of Canada when it meets again on June 4.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose modest 25.9 points to close at 25,879.95.
Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet noted going in to today the index was up 4.08% month to date, and 4.55% year to date.
Sectors were mixed, with Base Metals the only one rising by more than 1% and Information Technology the sole one falling by more than 1%.
Of commodities, gold was sharply higher late afternoon Friday as the dollar plunged after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union on June 1, adding yet more turmoil for the global economy and raising safe-haven demand.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $63.50 to US$3,387.10 per ounce, pressing close to the April 21 record high of $3,425.30.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for the first time in four days despite concerns over rising supply as the high-demand summer driving season begins this weekend with the U.S. Memorial Day holiday.
WTI oil for July delivery closed up $0.33 to settle at US$61.53 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen up $0.30 to US$64.74.
Still, Rosenberg Research in an Energy Sector Outlook entitled ‘Oil’s Not Well’ said it remains underweight on the sector: “the macro-outlook looks bad, and the risk-reward profile is constrained by mediocre fundamentals.”
Rosenberg said the “rapid” decline in oil prices shows little sign of abating given the terrible macro-outlook and OPEC+ supply pressure.
It added this leads to little upside for the Energy sector, and its models do not have a favorable view.
“The risk-reward profile and fundamentals are mediocre, but we do highlight a few brighter spots at the subsector level”.
Rosenberg Research said prospects for the U.S. Energy sector “look tactically bleak”, with oil and natural gas prices depressed and showing little upside over the next six months.
It added trade wars have reduced the outlook for manufacturing production, exports, and container shipping volumes around the world.
It remains underweight Energy, given both a problematic macro-outlook and the weak risk-reward profile.
In conclusion, the research said: “We’ve been advising investors to trim risk away from highly cyclically exposed sectors like Consumer Discretionary, and the current market valuation represents a great exit point for that purpose.
However, the Energy sector isn’t a promising destination for capital— the falling global growth outlook and low oil and natural gas prices leave little opportunity on the table, so we remain underweight.”
Meanwhile, founder David Rosenberg, in a separate note of his own said today’s Canadian retail sales number was “broadly mixed”, but added the Bank of Canada “should find comfort” in the back-to-back dips in the price deflator.
Rosenberg noted the headline came in “a tad above” expectations, up 0.8% month over month,(consensus was a rise of 0.7%).
What was key was the “woeful” -0.7% plunge in the ex-auto segment.
That was the steepest slide since May of last year, he added.
Rosenberg said even though much of that weakness reflected a price induced 6.5% MoM drop in gasoline prices, even after stripping out this and autos, retail sales still only managed to eke out a gain of less than 0.2% on the month.
He added: “Bad for the Canadian dollar but good for the GoC bond market, and all of a sudden, the Bank of Canada is back in play.
In fact, what stood out in the report was the -0.1% MoM reading in the retail price deflator for the second month in a row, and in conjunction with the deflated producer price data we got for April, tells us that the hot CPI number — which was mostly food — was actually more lukewarm than it seemed on the surface.”
Rosenberg noted the year over year trend in pricing power in the broad retail sector has slowed from +2.5% in January to +2.3% in February and now to +2.2% as of March.
“That should be fodder for the BoC policy doves and GoC bond bulls alike,” he said.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets in his regular ‘The Week Ahead’ column noted core inflation measures in Canada would suggest the BoC should be holding steady on rates in June, with April ex-energy measures coming in on the high side.
Shenfeld said that may well be the BoC decision in two weeks, but he added it would be based on what the data is showing now.
“In terms of where it’s headed,” he added, “the coming week’s GDP news will shed much lighter, given the weight that the central bank rightly assigns to economic slack, the so-called “output gap,” in steering turns in inflation.”
Taylor Schleich, Director, Economics and Strategy at National Bank Financial, for his part noted that despite Canada’s weaker growth outlook, poorer job market prospects and better contained inflation, 2025 policy rate expectations have evolved similarly here compared to the United States.
As it stands, overnight index swap markets are priced for 50 bps of Fed easing this year while just over one BoC cut is discounted.
Schleich noted consensus expects 50 bps from both.
He said: “Relative to market pricing, we think risks are skewed in the opposite direction.
To us, the BoC is likely to deliver more easing than is priced (and more than consensus).
Fed pricing is closer to ‘fair value’ but listening to the FOMC, there’s a clearer path to one (or no) cuts versus more than two.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street was rattled by President Donald Trump’s threats to impose aggressive tariffs on the European Union and Apple Inc., with stocks falling and the dollar hitting its lowest level since December 2023.
The S&P 500 extended losses as Trump said he’s “not looking for a deal” with the EU, reiterating tariffs would be set at 50%.
Earlier Friday, the market got some relief as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could strike “several large” trade deals in the next couple of weeks.
Apple fell 3%, down for an eighth straight session.
United States Steel Corp. soared 21% as Trump backed a partnership with Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries held gains as Bessent said regulators may ease a capital rule on the market, which could reduce yields.
Haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc climbed alongside gold.
Trump said that the 25% tariff he threatened against Apple earlier Friday would also be aimed at device makers including Samsung Electronics Co. to spur them into moving manufacturing of their products to the US.
The president said in a social media post that the higher charge on the EU would start on June 1 because “our discussions with them are going nowhere.”
The sudden move underscores the ongoing risk that shifts in US policy can abruptly upend market dynamics at short notice.
Markets had rebounded in recent weeks on optimism that Trump was softening his approach to the tariffs and investor attention had turned to concerns about the ballooning US debt and deficits.
“Volatility remains the theme,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“This is a sharp reminder that the tariffs will continue to be a source of major uncertainty until there are meaningful agreements finalized.”
That said, Navellier says these threats are negotiating tactics to give President Trump negotiating leverage, so he would be “shocked” if these proposed tariffs are imposed.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, down for a fourth straight day.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.9%, with tariff-exposed autos among the biggest decliners.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.51%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%.
“Just when I thought it was safe to go back into markets, look what happens,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors.
“Uncertainty is continually ramping up — it’s not about to come down at all.
This is on trend in terms of Trump’s tactics of imposing tariffs,” he added.
The president’s tariff threats represented a fresh round of trade brinkmanship; after indicating last week he was looking to wind down talks with partners over his April 2 duties, which he paused for 90 days to allow for negotiations.
“It’s going to keep markets on edge,” said Aneeka Gupta, head of macroeconomic research at Wisdom Tree UK Ltd.
“Markets were hoping news on tariffs had abated until at least the 90-day pause expired, but that’s clearly not the case.
Uncertainties are here to stay.
We’re in for a period of very high volatility.”
To Capital Economics, Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff on the EU from June may well turn out to be a “negotiating tactic” and seems “very unlikely” to be where tariffs settle over the long run.
“At this stage, we are not inclined to change our working assumption that tariffs on the EU will ultimately settle around 10% but this underlines that there are risks and that the road to an agreement could be rocky,” the firm said.
Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management said that the EU implications would be less impactful than many of the Asian emerging markets that are key components to the technology sector supply chain.
“Although policy uncertainty injects more investment uncertainty, we believe this is part of the negotiating thesis to cut individual or regional deals, and we still believe that most companies and the economy are well positioned to power through the temporary higher import prices,” he said.
The Trump administration’s fast-changing tariff policies have sent equities spiraling on recession fears and concerns about the safety of US assets, but they’ve rebounded from April’s lows as the president touted progress in tariff negotiations.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon recently warned against complacency in the face of a slew of risks, citing everything from inflation and credit spreads to geopolitics.
“Concerns over trade, fiscal deficits, and growth may be less evident in equity markets when considering the broader market’s impressive recovery from the April lows, but they still appear to be relevant to the dollar,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
Turnquist noted the greenback has struggled to gain traction over the last month as de-dollarization trends continue against a backdrop of rising deficit forecasts and a US debt downgrade.
The latest tariff threats came at a time when bond investors are demanding more compensation to hold long-dated US debt as global markets grow anxious about the widening fiscal deficit in the world’s biggest economy.
The US 10-year term premium — or the extra return investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of a series of shorter ones — has climbed to near 1%, a level last seen in 2014.
It’s a measure of how jittery investors are about plans to raise the scale of future borrowing.
“While there is a risk that deficit fears lead to progressively higher yields in the weeks ahead, we believe that the Fed and/or Trump administration would likely make adjustments in the event of much higher yields,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
To Marcelli, that means high grade and investment grade bonds represent good value at current levels for investors seeking portfolio income.

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. will spend around $40 billion on Nvidia Corp.’s high-performance computer chips to power OpenAI’s new US data center in Abilene, Texas,, the Financial Times reported, citing several people familiar with the matter.
* Trump on Friday signed orders meant to accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants, including small, untested designs that offer the promise of rapid deployment but have yet to be built in the US.
* Boeing Co. has reached a tentative agreement with the US Justice Department that would allow the plane maker to avoid criminal charges for two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets more than six years ago.
* Salesforce Inc. is in talks to acquire software company Informatica Inc., rebooting a pursuit that fell through last year, people familiar with the matter said.
* CommScope Holding Co. is exploring a sale of its broadband connectivity and cable arm, according to people with knowledge of the matter, as the network infrastructure firm unloads assets to repay debt.
* Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. fees are under fresh scrutiny from European Union antitrust enforcers, less than a decade after a series of probes ended with hefty fines and an agreement to cut some of their controversial levies.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1363
* The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.3535
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 142.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $108,725.93
* Ether fell 3.1% to $2,559.67
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.51%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $61.61 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2% to $3,361.06 an ounce

-With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani, Julien Ponthus, Andre Janse van Vuuren and Lynn Thomasson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.— Chinese Proverb
 
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
 
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
May 21, 1904:FIFA is founded as the governing body of football and takes responsibility for organizing the World Cup.
May 21, 1980: “The Empire Strikes Back,” the second movie in the “Star Wars” series, was released. Go to article

Alexander Pope, poet, b.1688.
Al Franken, comedian, b. 1951.

The International Booker Prize goes to …
Indian author Banu Mushtaq and her translator Deepa Bhasthi won the prize for fiction for “Heart Lamp,” a collection of 12 tales chronicling the lives of women in southern India. It’s the first time a short story collection has been honored.

After nearly 5 years, ‘Fortnite’ returns to Apple’s app store
Epic Games’ popular multiplayer shooter video game has been banned from the store since 2020. Apple claimed the gaming giant violated its policies by introducing a way for users to circumvent Apple’s in-app payment system. 

Speaking of ‘Fortnite,’ there’s a new controversy
Hollywood’s actors’ union has filed an unfair labor practice charge against Llama Productions, a subsidiary of Epic Games, for allegedly replacing actors’ work in “Fortnite” with artificial intelligence.

Who steals art off a tombstone? Well, people are strange.
A bust of Doors frontman Jim Morrison that once adorned his grave in the Père Lachaise cemetery in Paris disappeared 37 years ago. Last week, the sculpture was found during a police investigation.

‘It epitomises the strangeness of Sutton Hoo’: 6th-century bucket found at Anglo-Saxon ship burial holds human cremation
Archaeologists found a cremation burial while examining the inside of a bucket from Sutton Hoo, a 1,400-year-old boat burial site in England.

Hospital superbug can feed on medical plastic, first-of-its-kind study reveals
Pseudomonas aeruginosa is associated with 559,000 yearly deaths worldwide, and many of them come from hospital-acquired infections. A new study suggests it may be thriving in sterile environments by feeding on medical plastics.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Bangkok, Thailand
A lion dance troupe prepare for a performance at the Erawan Shrine
Photograph: Rungroj Yongrit/EPA

San Francisco, US
A paddleboarder passes a ship in the waters off Crane Cove Park
Photograph: Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle/AP

locking willow sparrows in Turkiye’s Bursa
BURSA, TURKIYE – MAY 20: Willow sparrows, one of the migratory bird species, are seen flying in flocks on May 20, 2025 in Karacabey district of Bursa, Turkiye. (Photo by Alper Tuydes /Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 21^st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41860.44	-816.80
		-1.91%
S&P 500	5844.61	-95.85
		-1.61%
NASDAQ	18872.64	-270.07
		-1.41%
TSX	25839.17	-216.46
		-0.83%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37298.98	-230.51
		-0.61%
HANG SENG	23827.78	+146.30
		+0.62%
SENSEX	81596.63	+410.19
		+0.51%
FTSE 100*	8786.46	+5.34
		+0.06%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.398	3.297
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.689	3.604
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5985	4.4810
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0923	4.9634

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7210	0.7185
US $	1.3869	1.3917

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5691	0.6373
US $	1.1314	0.8838

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3261.55	3230.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.56	62.69

Market Commentary:
“A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price.” -Charlie Munger’s #1 Lesson of Investing.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 25,839.17 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3% on April 10 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.2%.
ATS Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.1%.
Today, 136 of 217 shares fell, while 79 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4%
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on May 20, 2025 and 20.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 7.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 16.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalizationof C$4.21t 30-day price volatility fell to 20.85% compared with 21.38% in he previous session and the average of 29.03% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | -87.0047| -1.0| 8/16
Information Technology | -80.9998| -3.2| 1/9
Industrials | -42.3720| -1.3| 5/23
Energy | -19.2336| -0.5| 12/29
Consumer Discretionary | -10.5768| -1.2| 3/7
Real Estate | -9.6196| -2.1| 1/18
Consumer Staples | -8.2076| -0.8| 2/8
Communication Services | -2.2205| -0.4| 1/4
Health Care | -1.5554| -2.5| 0/4
Utilities | -0.7237| -0.1| 8/7
Materials | 46.0619| 1.3| 38/11
Shopify | -52.9500| -4.2| 8.2| -7.3
Brookfield Corp | -31.4900| -3.8| 78.6| -4.4
Constellation Software | -23.4700| -3.4| 25.2| 9.8
Nutrien | 3.5390| 1.3| 15.1| 28.6
Wheaton Precious Metals | 8.9110| 2.4| 36.1| 46.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 12.5600| 2.3| 3.9| 42.5
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for the first session in the last 11 on Wednesday, with traders taking profits after the index posted a series of record high closes in recent days, and also on some investor nerves as TD Bank will provide a picture on the health of the Canadian consumer and industry credit losses when it releases second-quarter earnings tomorrow.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 216.46 points to 25,839.17.
Among sectors, Health Care and Information Technology were the biggest decliners, down 2.64% and 2.32% respectively.
Of individual stocks, market focus is on Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO, TD) which will launch the big banks’ second-quarter earnings season tomorrow, Thursday.
Analysts at National Bank said in a note last week that they forecast cash earnings per share of $1.81, compared to a consensus $1.75.
The FactSet forecast is $1.77 versus $2.04 a year earlier.
National Bank expects key themes in the TD result to include: another strategic review update; elevated expense growth (excluding AML remediation costs); and an indication that TD’s buyback pace is on track to meet objectives.
National Bank doesn’t expect a dividend increase.
Bigger picture, market focus is already on the Bank of Canada meeting set for June to see if it cuts the key benchmark interest rate, after holding it steady in April.
According to one Macquarie economist, the BoC is likely to await more data and assess the outlook before introducing any more rate cuts.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, noted Canada’s inflation data yesterday was mixed for April.
On the inflation outlook ahead, Macquarie expects an “uneven moderation” in underlying inflation in Canada.
It noted the unemployment rate has risen to 6.9% and private-sector wage growth has “moderated sharply.”
Moreover, Macquarie said, shelter inflation is likely to continue to subside with low population growth a driver.
In terms of the BoC’s outlook, Macquarie added yesterday’s data lowered the overnight index swap market’s implied probability of a rate cut on June 4 to near 30% (from 68% before the decision).
While Macquarie continues to see intermittent cuts of 75 bps from the BoC by year end, it said recent firm data leads it to push out the timing of its next expected cut to July from June.
In Macquarie’s view the BoC is likely to await more data and assess the outlook with a new Monetary Policy Report forecast in July.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a second day on Wednesday as rising inventories offset early buying that followed a report Israel is readying a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
WTI oil for July delivery closed $0.46 to settle at US$61.57 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down $0.53 to US$64.85.
But gold prices rose for a third-straight session late afternoon on Wednesday on higher geopolitical risk following a report that Israel is planning to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities while the dollar weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$36.50 to US$3,349.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth, Denitsa Tsekova and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s worries about a ballooning deficit that threatens America’s status as a haven were reflected in a $16 billion Treasury sale that saw lackluster demand – with stocks, bonds and the dollar falling.
Treasuries got hit after a weak auction of 20-year bonds, whose 5% coupon rate was the highest since the tenor was reintroduced in 2020.
Long-term debt bore the brunt of the selling, with 30-year yields jumping 11 basis points toward the highest since October 2023.
After almost erasing losses, the S&P 500 dropped over 1.5%.
The greenback slipped against most major currencies.
Bitcoin pared its advance but was still set for a record.
“The soft 20-year auction fueled additional weakness,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.
“It has a been a theme all week starting with the Moody’s downgrade.
Additionally, there is the deficit/budget debate being fought in the background of this environment.”
Traders have been piling into bets that long-term bond yields would surge on concerns over the US’s swelling debt and deficits, with Moody’s Ratings on Friday lowering the nation’s credit score below the top triple-A level.
For many, the message was: Unless America gets its finances in order, the perceived risks of lending to the government will rise.
The White House amped up the pressure on Republicans on Wednesday urging lawmakers to quickly approve President Donald Trump’s signature tax bill, adding that a failure to do so would be the “ultimate betrayal.”
Former US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he’s more alarmed by the country’s growing budget deficit than its trade imbalances and urged Washington to prioritize fiscal repair.
“I’m very concerned,” he said during a panel discussion at the Qatar Economic Forum on Wednesday.
“The budget deficit is a larger concern to me than the trade deficit. So I’m on the side of, I hope we do get more spending cuts — something that’s very important.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.9%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 10 basis points to 4.59%.
A dollar gauge slid 0.3%.
The murky economic outlook is fueling hedging activity in Treasury options, with investors targeting higher rates on longer-dated bonds by the end of the year.
Those wagers echo sentiment on Wall Street, where strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. are lifting their forecasts for yields.
At BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky says bonds finally appear to be getting equities’ attention.
“The move in the 10-year yield meaningfully above 4.5% is something that confirms a key change in long-term yields,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“These higher yields make it much tougher to justify today’s very high valuation levels.  So, it’s something that will likely create some renewed headwinds for stocks.”
To George Saravelos at Deutsche Bank, it is hard for US equities to stay resilient in this environment.
“The 2023-24 period saw a combined rise in US yields and equities as the market was revising US growth expectations higher. This was entirely reasonable,” he said.
“Today is very different. It is hard to make the case that such a (negative) driver of the rising cost of capital is positive for risk assets.”
Saravelos also said that the most troubling part of the market reaction to the bond auction was that the dollar weakened at the same time.
“At the core of the problem is that foreign investors are simply no longer willing to finance US twin deficits at current level of prices,” he said.
“Washington developments will dominate the headlines for the rest of the week, amidst a lack of catalysts on the corporate earnings and economic data fronts,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
Republicans made some headway in advancing Trump’s bill on Wednesday.
House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that he had an agreement with lawmakers from high-tax states to increase the limit on the state and local tax deduction to $40,000, winning a key faction of members who had threatened to block the legislation.
“The budget is like the bad news, good news, bad news joke,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
“The first bad news, it has been out of control for years — which is why Moody’s downgraded US debt.
The good news, the current budget is tracking to stabilize the deficit and could even reduce it.
The second bad news, the budget needs to shrink, not stabilize.”
While markets have benefited from softer rhetoric by the Trump administration around trade — particularly from the temporary truce with China – the stock recovery back to pre- tariff highs trails other major global indexes.
The S&P 500 is still below its Feb. 19 record, while the MSCI ex-US hit a new high this week.
US stocks are still laggards in global equity markets this year.
For them to sustain the rally and reclaim their usual spot at the top of the pack, Corporate America’s profit engine needs to rev back up, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence say.
The S&P 500 has underperformed a gauge of 22 developed markets outside of the US since late last year as the pace of US earnings growth relative to the rest of the world narrowed, according to an analysis by BI’s Nathaniel Welnhofer.
The last time such a phenomenon occurred was in 2017, when the US stock benchmark’s earnings growth trailed its overseas peers.

Corporate Highlights:
* Walt Disney Co. notified Florida-based employees who are losing temporary legal residency in the US that their jobs would be terminated next month after the Supreme Court ruled Monday that the Trump administration could revoke protections for 350,000 Venezuelans.
* Alphabet Inc. climbed after the company said it will offer “AI mode” in search to all US users, showing its commitment to redesigning its core business to keep pace with new rivals in the artificial intelligence age.
* Nvidia Corp. chief Jensen Huang blasted the “failure” of US restrictions intended to contain China’s technological ascent, calling on the White House to lower barriers to AI chip sales before American firms cede that market to up-and-coming rivals such as Huawei Technologies Co.
* OpenAI will acquire the AI device startup co-founded by Apple Inc. veteran Jony Ive in a nearly $6.5 billion all-stock deal, joining forces with the legendary designer to make a push into hardware.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby told shareholders that the carrier is seeing “at least a stable revenue and booking environment” heading into the Memorial Day weekend and start of the summer travel season.
* Target Corp. cut its sales forecast following a sharp pullback in spending and a hit from tariffs, boycotts and consumer confidence.
* Lowe’s Cos. comparable sales beat expectations during the latest quarter as shoppers-maintained home spending despite weakening consumer sentiment and economic turbulence.
* TJX Cos. executives said the company’s global network of vendors and flexibility on price and merchandise will help the company manage tariff pressures.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. tumbled after the Guardian reported the insurer secretly paid nursing homes bonuses to reduce hospital transfers for ailing residents.
* Boeing Co. has told customers that it’s approaching a key production target that would signal manufacturing of its all-important 737 jet is back on track following last year’s harrowing mid-air accident.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1316
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3413
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 143.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $108,745.73
* Ether was little changed at $2,512.58
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.59%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $61.33 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,318.67 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The chief cause of failure is substituting what you want most for what you want now. –Zig Ziglar, 1926-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

May 20, 1873: Levi Strauss and Jacob Davis invent blue jeans, which become one of the most popular types of trousers worldwide.
May 20, 1927: First Trans-Atlantic flight, Charles Lindbergh.
May 20, 1932: Amelia Earhart Atlantic crossing
May 20, 1939: Regular trans-Atlantic air service began as a Pan American Airways plane took off from Port Washington, N.Y., bound for Europe. 
Go to article

Henri Rousseau, artist, b. 1844.
Honoré de Balzac, writer, b.1799

Who can believe it?
Zak Starkey and The Who have parted ways for the second time in a month. Although guitarist Pete Townshend implied in his statement that the split was mutual, Starkey claimed he had been “fired” from the legendary band.

Denzel Washington gets a surprise at Cannes
The two-time Academy Award-winning actor was surprised with an honorary Palme d’Or right before the screening of “Highest 2 Lowest,” his new film with long-time collaborator Spike Lee.

Viking Age women may have wielded weapons when pregnant, sagas and ancient artifacts hint.

‘It epitomises the strangeness of Sutton Hoo’: 6th-century bucket found at Anglo-Saxon ship burial holds human cremation

Venus may be geologically ‘alive’ after all, reanalysis of 30-year-old NASA data reveals

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
Chelsea pensioner Peter Wilson poses with a floral installation of a punk sporting a mohawk hairstyle, made of pampas grass, tropical blooms and preserved leaves by Ricky Paul Flowers at the Chelsea flower show
Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Men dressed as human statues take part in a parade during the Long Night of Museums
Photograph: Juan Carlos Torrejon/EPA

London, UKA
woman dressed as a mushroom walks through a rose garden at the RHS Chelsea flower fhow
Photograph: James Manning/PA
Market Closes for May 20^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42677.24	-114.83
		-0.27%
S&P 500	5940.46	-23.14
		-0.39%
NASDAQ	19142.71	-72.75
		-0.38%
TSX	26055.63	+83.70
		+0.32%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37529.49	+30.86
		+0.08%
HANG SENG	23681.48	+348.76
		+1.49%
SENSEX	81186.44	-872.98
		-1.06%
FTSE 100*	8781.12	+81.81
		+0.94%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.297	3.171
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.604	3.489
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4810	4.4770
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9634	4.9439

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7185	0.7160
US $	1.3917	1.3966

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5701	0.6369
US $	1.1282	0.8863

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3230.15	3191.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.69	62.49

Market Commentary:
Economy is a great source of revenue. -Seneca, c.4 BCE-65 AD.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the 10th day, climbing 0.3%, or 83.7 to 26,055.63 in Toronto.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.3%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.6%.
Today, 130 of 217 shares rose, while 82 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.9%
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 21.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.1% in the past 5 days and rose 7.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 16.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.19t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 21.38% compared with 22.12% in the previous session and the average of 29.42% over the past month
Canadian investors took up where they had left off last Friday, returning from the holiday weekend by pushing the Toronto Stock Exchange higher for a tenth-straight session and to yet another record close on Tuesday.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 83.7 points tp 26,055.63.
The biggest gainers were Telecoms, up 0.45%, followed by Utilities, up 0.62%.
Information Technology and Health Care, down 1.41% and 2.08% respectively, were the biggest decliners.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet Tuesday’s gains add to the largest one week point gain for the TSX since the week ending Sept. 13, 2024.
As of last Friday, the TSX was up for six consecutive weeks, and up 2,778.46 points or 12% over that period.
This is the largest six-week percentage gain since the week ending Dec. 11, 2020 and longest winning streak since the week ending Oct. 18, 2024, when the market rose for six straight weeks.
Also as of last Friday, the TSX was up 1,018.41 points, or 4.1%, over the prior nine trading days, the largest nine-day point and percentage gain since Friday, May 2, 2025.
It is also the longest winning streak since Jan. 24, 2025, when the market rose for nine straight trading days.
Month-to date the TSX was as of Friday up 4.55%, and year to date up 1243.99 points or 5%.
Tuesday’s gains on the resources heavy index came in spite of mixed commodity prices and as veteran economist David Rosenberg noted Canada’s CPI data earlier in the session “came in hotter than expected and put the BoC [Bank of Canada] into a bit of a bind” in terms of its decision on whether or not to cut its benchmark interest rate in June.
According to Rosenberg, the inflation numbers were a surprise given Canada’s “wobbly economy replete with employment loss and widening spare capacity in the labor market”.
He noted the headline non-seasonally adjusted number was minus 0.1% month over month versus the minus 0.2% consensus estimate and while the year over year headline inflation rate did recede to plus 1.7% from plus 2.3% in March, this came in “a tad” above the plus 1.6% market expectation.
The problem, Rosenberg said, was an acceleration in the core median inflation rate to a rise of 3.2% year-over-year from 2.9% in March and beating estimates for a 2.9% rise, while noting the core-trim barometer “hooked up” to 3.1% year-over-year from 2.8% in March (consensus at Rosenberg Research 2.8%).
On a sequential basis, both rose an outsized plus 0.4% month-over-month.
Rosenberg said while the removal of the consumer carbon tax allowed for a seasonally-adjusted fall of 0.2% month-over-month print on the headline, it was disappointing to see the core ex-food & energy index jump more than plus 0.3% month-over-month, which it has done in four of the past five months.
“This place the BoC in a bit of a box,” he added, while also noting the plus 0.4% month-over-month spike in the key CPIX measure (excludes the eight most volatile components as well as indirect taxes), which was the sharpest increase since April 2023.
For its part, National Bank noted while headline inflation at 1.7% versus the forecasted 1.6% might seem minor, the bank said it “masks a more significant trend: economists likely underestimated the deflationary impact of the carbon tax removal”.
National Bank said core inflation measures might concern the BoC, with both the median and trimmed CPI rising 0.4% month over month, pushing their annual rates above the central bank’s 3.0% upper target.
“Given signs of economic deterioration and sticky inflation in the data, some may fear we are entering a period of stagflation that would make the central bank less eager to ease policy further,” the bank wrote.
But despite these inflationary pressures, National Bank said the broader economic picture suggests in its view limited risk of sustained inflation.
“For instance,” it added, “few firms reported capacity constraints in Q1, implying that the recent rise in inflation is a temporary anomaly and there is minimal risk of persistent domestic inflation.
Additionally, the economy is already showing numerous signs of strain including private corporations slashing jobs.
With the economy already facing excess supply and as retaliatory tariff measures are relatively limited, this is not the moment for the Bank of Canada to fixate on inflation, a lagging indicator, but rather to focus on fostering conditions that sustain economic growth.”
National continues to anticipate a cut in the policy rate to 2.0% by the end of the year.”
RBC noted it had been stressing the risks were skewed to 0-2 rate cuts instead of more and that the bar for terminal pricing to move below 2.25%, which is its estimate, would continue to be high.
Its roadmap said that if CPI saw a “+0.3% m/m or higher on monthly core and it definitely leans to a hold”.
Indeed, RBC said today, with core measures averaging a “chunky” 0.37% monthly gain in April, the BoC will have a tough time justifying a cut in June after pausing in April.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower as the price remains rangebound amid a weakening global economy and rising supply, though stalled talks between Iran and the United States are easing fears of yet more new barrels coming to market.
WTI oil for June delivery closed down $0.13 to settle at US$62.56 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen down $0.10 to US$65.44.
But gold traded higher for a second day late afternoon on Tuesday as the dollar weakens following last week’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s Ratings.
Gold for June delivery was last seen up $63.10 to US$3,296.60 per ounce, remaining under the April 21 record of US$3,425.30 per ounce.

Index Points
Materials | 115.2105| 3.4| 44/5
Consumer Staples | 13.6853| 1.4| 10/0
Industrials | 9.8482| 0.3| 15/13
Utilities | 6.2272| 0.6| 11/3
Energy | 2.4860| 0.1| 19/22
Communication Services | 2.3419| 0.4| 4/0
Consumer Discretionary | 1.5379| 0.2| 4/6
Financials | 0.1653| 0.0| 13/10
Health Care | -0.8498| -1.3| 1/3
Real Estate | -3.9572| -0.8| 5/14
Information Technology | -62.9955| -2.4| 4/6
Wheaton Precious Ltd | 28.0100| 5.3| 9.1| 39.4
Metals | 18.0500| 5.2| -16.1| 42.7
Barrick Mining | 12.8400| 4.3| -34.1| 16.6
Suncor | -7.2470| -1.7| 8.7| -4.4
Brookfield Corp | -14.3900| -1.7| 27.3| -0.6
Shopify | -58.6700| -4.4| -12.6| -3.2
USA
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s rally took a breather on Tuesday, with stocks falling as traders awaited fresh catalysts after a six-day run that put the S&P 500 up almost 20% from its April lows.
The US equity benchmark lost steam following an $8.6 trillion surge to around “overbought” levels.
A slide in its most-influential group – big tech – weighed on trading, with Alphabet Inc. down 1.5% amid the company’s developer conference.
Tesla Inc. was the only megacap gaining as Elon Musk said he’s committed to leading the electric-vehicle giant five years from now.
Long-term Treasury yields climbed as fractious US budget negotiations kept focus on the growth in deficit spending.
President Donald Trump is growing frustrated with demands to significantly boost the cap on the state and local tax deduction, according to a senior administration official, signaling a deadlock as Republicans aim to quickly pass a giant tax-cut bill.
Despite the pullback in stocks, May is shaping up as surprisingly strong for the S&P 500.
Markets have calmed after months of turmoil as hopes grow that a tariff blitz unleashed by Trump will be less severe than expected.
Still, investors are scouring charts for clues on whether the advance can persist, with the gauge near levels that some technicians view as a sign of overheating.
“There is little question that the momentum in the equity market is quite strong.
That said, the market is getting overbought near-term, so it could see a breather at any time,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“However, unless that breather turns out to be a serious reversal, a retest of those all-time highs soon is very possible.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.48%.
A dollar gauge slipped 0.2%.
Risks such as tariff uncertainty, softening economic data and fiscal headwinds challenge the sustainability of the recent equity rebound, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Tony SK Lee wrote in a note.
“We expect volatility ahead as investors contend with uncertainty on several fronts,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Further progress seems necessary for trade deals to last.
Trump’s tax cuts could add pressure to the bond market.
The Federal Reserve is likely to resist rate cuts in the near term while economic headwinds mount.” Fed Reserve Bank of St.
Louis President Alberto Musalem said tariffs will likely weigh on the US economy and weaken the labor market.
Musalem said the Fed can deliver a “balanced response” to both inflation and employment as long as Americans’ outlook on future prices remains anchored at the central bank’s 2% target.
The bond-market revolt against Washington’s fiscal largess is far from over, according to Garda Capital Partners’ Tim Magnusson, who says a rapid increase in yields is likely the only thing that will motivate Congress to rein in the deficit.
“The bond market is going to have the final say on what happens fiscally,” Magnusson said in an interview at the firm’s New York office.
Lawmakers “are going to get tested more — 5% is not the final line in the sand.”
Meantime, currency options traders are now more pessimistic than they’ve ever been about the dollar’s path over the next year, according to one commonly-cited measure of investor sentiment.
One-year risk reversals — a gauge of how expensive it is to buy versus sell a currency in the options market — fell to minus 28 basis points in favor of puts over calls for the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.
That mark is the most negative level on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2011, surpassing even a level briefly hit at the outset of pandemic-driven market gyrations five years ago.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google will offer “AI mode” in search to all US users, part of an effort to bring products to market faster and keep pace with new rivals in the artificial intelligence age.
* Apple Inc. is preparing to allow third-party developers to write software using its artificial intelligence models, aiming to spur the creation of new applications and make its devices more enticing.
* Home Depot Inc. maintained its guidance for the fiscal year as US sales ticked up, a sign that consumer spending has held up despite economic turbulence.
* Nippon Steel Corp.’s $14.1 billion bid for United States Steel Corp. is more important than ever as tariffs and rising Chinese exports reshape the global market for the metal, according to a top executive at the Japanese firm.
* US shale oil output hasn’t peaked and can expand, but not if prices are near $50 a barrel, according to the chief executive officer of oil giant ConocoPhillips.
* Venezuela released an American citizen on the same day the US was set to give Chevron Corp. another 60-day waiver to operate in the country, part of a push by President Nicolas Maduro’s government and some voices in the Trump administration to improve ties.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. announced a shareholder rights plan after an investor began acquiring a substantial amount of stock in the lingerie retailer.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1279
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3387
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $106,876.97
* Ether fell 0.9% to $2,497.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $62.56 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2% to $3,293.99 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,
Carolann
Doing your best at this moment  puts you in the best place for the next moment. -Oprah Winfrey, b. 1954.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office for Sohn Investment Conference in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 16, 1770: Marie Antoinette, age 14, married the future King Louis XVI of France, who was 15. Go to article
May 16, 1817: Mississippi River steamboat service begins
May 16, 1881: World’s first electric tram enters service in Lichterfelde near Berlin

International Day of the Boy Child. Read more.

Scientists use AI to encrypt secret messages that are invisible to cybersecurity systems
Scientists say that hiding secret messages using AI chatbots could lead to a world of iron-clad encryption.

World’s oldest star chart may be 2,300 years old and from China — but not everyone agrees
Is the Star Manual of Master Shi the oldest known astronomical catalog? Experts are divided.

NASA spacecraft snaps eerie image of eclipsed sun with an extra moon overhead. What’s going on?
NASA’s PUNCH mission, a tiny constellation of four satellites, captured a photo of the moon drifting across the sky through a haze of sunlight. The mission is still undergoing commissioning and is expected to start science operations June 9.

Physicists may be on their way to a ‘theory of everything’ after reenvisioning Einstein’s most famous theory
A new physics paper takes a step toward creating a long-sought “theory of everything” by uniting gravity with the quantum world. However, the new theory remains far from being proven observationally

Dinosaur age tsunami revealed from tiny chunks of Japanese amber, study finds
Amber deposits in Japan show unique deformations that suggest trees were swept out to sea during a tsunami about 115 million years ago, giving paleontologists a new way to identify past tsunamis.

The sun just spat out the strongest solar flares of 2025 — and more could be headed toward Earth
The sun has released several powerful M- and X-class solar flares over the past few days, resulting in radio blackouts around the world.

Humans reached southern South America by 14,500 years ago, genomes from 139 Indigenous groups reveal
A large-scale genome study shows that Indigenous peoples in the Americas split off several times, resulting in loss of important genetic diversity.

‘Very rare’ African ebony figurines found in 1,500-year-old Christian burials in Israeli desert
Three 1,500-year-old burials in the Negev desert have pendants of bone and ebony that may depict the deceased individuals’ ancestors.

Living lunch box? Iceland orcas are unexpectedly swimming with baby pilot whales, but it’s unclear why.
Newborn pilot whales have been spotted mysteriously swimming among pods of orcas. Scientists are trying to puzzle out how the pilot whale calves got there and what happened to them.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

All aboard … cygnets take the dry option and hitch a lift on their mother’s back at Walcot Pool, Shropshire, UK
Photograph: Andrew Fusek-Peters/SWNS
Alberobello, Italy
A cyclist pedals among typical trulli, a traditional dry-stone hut in the region of Puglia, before the start of the fourth stage of the Giro d’Italia cycling race, from Alberobello to Lecce. Casper van Uden claimed his maiden grand tour victory in a sprint finish to top an all-Dutch podium in Lecce
Photograph: Marco Alpozzi/AP

​​​​​​​A water vole in Britain. Water vole populations look to be bouncing back; overall, numbers have declined but in some regions of the UK there are signs of recovery, thanks to habitat restoration and tighter control of its main predator, the American mink
Photograph: Ian West/PA
Market Closes for May 16^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42654.74	+331.99
		+0.78%
S&P 500	5958.38	+41.45
		+0.70%
NASDAQ	19211.10	+98.78
		+0.52%
TSX	25971.93	+74.45
		+0.29%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37753.72	-1.79
		—
HANG SENG	23345.05	-108.11
		-0.46%
SENSEX	82330.59	-200.15
		-0.24%
FTSE 100*	8684.56	+50.81
		+0.59%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.171	3.147
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.489	3.478
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4770	4.4315
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9439	4.8867

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7160	0.7166
US $	1.3966	1.3954

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5592	0.6413
US $	1.1163	0.8957

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3191.05	3191.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.49	61.62

Market Commentary:
“In the short term, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”– Warren Buffett
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a second-straight record high on Friday while rising for a ninth-straight session as investors continue to add risk.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 74.45 points to 25,971.93, gaining just more than 1,000 points over its winning streak.
Rising sectors were led by Health Care, up 3.19%, followed by Energy, up 0.41%.
Base Metals, down 1.19%, was the biggest decliner.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3%, with 10 of 11 sectors higher, led by health care stocks.
As of market close, 145 of 217 stocks rose, while 70 fell.
MEG Energy Corp. led the advances, rising 19%, while South Bow Corp. decreased 4.1%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.3% to 25,972
* 10 of 11 sectors rose
** Health care gained, up 2%
** Materials declined, down 0.3%
* Crude oil rose 1.3% to $62/bbl
* Natgas fell 1.3% to $3.32/mmbtu
* Gold fell 0.8% to $3,202/oz
* Silver fell 1% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* MEG Energy Corp. (MEG CN) +19%: MEG Soars as Board Considers Strathcona Bid, Engages BMO (1)
* Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY CN) +9.7%: Global X Marijuana Life Rises 9.4% This Week
* Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH CN) +9%
* AtkinsRealis Group Inc. (ATRL CN) +4.6%: AtkinsRealis RSI Overbought; Up 11%, Most in About Six Months
* Canadian Tire Corp. (CTC/A CN) +3.3%: Canadian Tire to Buy Hudson’s Bay Company Brand Assets for C$30M
Decliners:
* South Bow Corp. (SOBO CN) -4.1%: South Bow’s Keystone Pipeline Transporting 585k B/D After Spill
* Ero Copper Corp. (ERO CN) -3.8%
* Capstone Copper Corp. (CS CN) -3.4%
* Denison Mines Corp. (DML CN) -3.3%
* Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN CN) -3.1%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks got hit in late hours and bond yields climbed after the US credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s amid concerns about the increase in government debt that threatens America’s status as the world’s safe haven.
A $606 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 dropped after the close of regular trading.
That followed a rally that put the US equity benchmark on the brink of a bull market on hopes that Donald Trump’s tariff war is cooling.
Treasury futures slid to session lows after the statement, with the market notching its third straight week of losses — the longest slide this year.
Moody’s lowered the US credit score to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday, joining Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in grading the world’s biggest economy below the top, triple-A position.
The one-notch cut comes more than a year after Moody’s changed its outlook on the US rating to negative.
The credit assessor now has a stable outlook.
“Being asked why Moody’s would downgrade the US now,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“Moody’s is trying to send a message to Congress to get their act together.”
A key House committee on Friday failed to advance House Republicans’ massive tax-and-spending bill after hard-line conservatives bucked President Trump and blocked the bill over cost concerns.
Negotiations will continue through the weekend, with the committee planning to meet again late Sunday night.
US deficits are already large by any measure today.
The US deficit has been in excess of 6% of gross domestic product for the past two years an unusually high burden outside of economic recessions or world wars.
The ratio was 6.4% for fiscal 2024, after 6.2% in 2023.
Equities climbed in regular hours Friday as the Financial Times reported the US and the European Union broke an impasse to enable tariff talks, fueling the risk-on tone that had been sparked by a trade truce with China.
Traders were able to look past data showing US consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell and inflation expectations climbed to multi-decade highs.
Since the US-China truce, banks across Wall Street have been watering down calls for a recession.
The optimism around trade deals has propelled American stocks ahead of most global equity benchmarks this week.
The shift came after a period in which money managers grew skeptical about the US equity market and started to pull away from growth stocks and rotate into defensive names, due to escalating concerns from trade wars to economic growth and geopolitical tensions.
In the first three months of the year, hedge funds boosted positions in healthcare stocks while reducing exposure in the technology sector.
The furious comeback in US equities from the depths of last month’s rout is poised to come to a halt, according to Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett.
The chief investment officer of the bank’s wealth management division says decelerating revenue growth from the Magnificent Seven mega cap companies and waning earnings momentum more broadly will limit further market upside after a double- digit recovery in the S&P 500 from April’s lows.
“I think we’re going to stall out here,” Shalett said Friday in an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance.
“It’s hard to justify the numbers.”
One thing is clear as the first-quarter earnings season draws to a close: The uncertain outlook for the global economy is superseding better-than-feared results even as stocks rally on signs of easing trade tensions.
In the US, a measure that reflects the proportion of S&P 500 members that raised their earnings outlook compared to those that held or reduced, the so-called profit guidance momentum, fell to the lowest level since at least 2010, according to an analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence’s equity strategists Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong.
That is in spite of S&P 500 companies delivering double the profit growth that was expected in the first quarter, according to BI.
“There is little question that the trade agreement between the US and China is a bullish development as it lowers the odds of a recession,” said Matt Maley at Miller tabak.
“Now, we have to figure out just how much this will actually improve the outlook enough to justify today’s level in the stock market and/or a further rally over the coming months.”

Corporate Highlights:
* The US Justice Department is considering an agreement that would allow Boeing Co. to avoid a criminal charge for two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets, according to lawyers representing family members of the victims.
* CoreWeave Inc. surged 22% to a record high after Nvidia Corp. reported a larger-than-anticipated stake in the cloud-computing provider.
* Applied Materials Inc. tumbled after giving a lackluster forecast for the current period, highlighting the potential cost of the US trade dispute with China.
* Charter Communications Inc. has agreed to combine with closely held Cox Communications in a cash-and-stock deal that would unite two of the biggest US cable providers.
* Coinbase Global Inc.’s rally has been unconquerable this week, as even a one-two punch of negative headlines did little to stop the crypto exchange operator’s climb ahead of its inclusion in the S&P 500.
* Binance and Kraken are among major crypto exchanges that have been targeted by the same type of social-engineering hack that was recently disclosed by Coinbase Global Inc., according to people familiar with the situation.
* Billionaire Michael Novogratz said Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. is talking with the US Securities and Exchange Commission about tokenizing its own stock as well as other equities using its digital-asset platform.
* Apple Inc. and Epic Games Inc. sparred over whether the iPhone maker was obstructing access to the hit game Fortnite, the latest tussle in a long-running feud over Apple’s control of game distribution revenue.
* The Federal Trade Commission wrapped up its case Thursday for breaking up Meta Platforms Inc. as an illegal social-media monopoly, with the company now set to lay out its defense in the ongoing antitrust trial.
* OpenAI is rolling out a new artificial intelligence agent for ChatGPT users that’s designed to help streamline software development as the company pushes into a crowded market of startups and large tech firms offering AI tools for coders.
* Novo Nordisk A/S is replacing Chief Executive Officer Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen as the drugmaker wrestles with increased competition for its Wegovy obesity shots that transformed the weight-loss industry and made the Danish company the star of corporate Europe.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1150
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3276
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 145.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $104,015.59
* Ether rose 2.1% to $2,591.41
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.48%.
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $62.35 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,193.18 an ounce

Have a wonderful long weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“I want to live my life, not record it.”– Jacqueline Lee Kennedy Onassis “Jackie”

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve!
Carolann is away from the office for Sohn Investment Conference in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 15, 1618: German astronomer Johannes Kepler discovers the third of his three planetary laws, the “harmonic law”
May 15, 1672: 1st copyright law enacted by Massachusetts
May 15, 1817: First private mental health hospital opens in the US, Asylum for the Relief of Persons Deprived of the Use of Their Reason (now Friends Hospital) in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
May 15, 1869: National Woman Suffrage Association forms in New York, founded by Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Cady Stanton
May 15: 1988: The Soviet Union began withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. Go to article

National Chocolate Chip Day. Read more

Gigantic ‘mud waves’ buried deep beneath the ocean floor reveal dramatic formation of Atlantic when Africa and South America finally split
Enormous “mud waves” buried under the Atlantic seabed formed 117 million years ago as the Atlantic Ocean opened up. The discovery of buried “mud waves” off the coast of western Africa reveals that the Atlantic Ocean was born at least 4 million years earlier than scientists previously thought.

9 best things to see in the night sky with binoculars: May to July 2025
Explore the wonders of the Northern Hemisphere’s night sky with our guide to the best celestial sights you can observe with binoculars between May and July. If you want to take your stargazing to the next level, a pair of binoculars is the way to go. With a little magnification, it’s possible to access another level of the night sky, revealing open clusters of stars, the Milky Way and detail on the surface of the moon.

James Webb telescope reveals ‘impossible’ auroras on Jupiter that have astronomers scratching their heads
Scientists looked at Jupiter’s massive auroras using the James Webb and Hubble Space Telescopes — and found a mystery they can’t fully explain.

‘Quite enigmatic’: Rare stone carving of Assyrian king surrounded by gods discovered in Iraq
A massive stone carving featuring an Assyrian ruler and several deities has been found in Iraq.
Archaeologists who are excavating the ancient city of Nineveh in Iraq have discovered a rare stone carving depicting the last ruler of the Assyrian Empire flanked by important gods. The slab was made in the seventh century B.C. but was mysteriously broken and buried under the palace throne room several centuries later.

Immune genes linked to bigger brains and longer lifespans in mammals — including humans
The genomes of long-living, big-brained mammal species reveal that they carry more copies of immunity genes. Experts speculate that these genes may affect longevity.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Perito Moreno glacier, Argentina
Tourists admire the Perito Moreno glacier, near the city of El Calafate in the Patagonian province of Santa Cruz
Photograph: Bernat Parera/Reuters

Doha, Qatar
The Qatari air force escorts a plane transporting the US president, Donald Trump, as it prepares to land
Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Frankfurt, Germany
A stork guards her chicks in her nest on a pylon
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for May 15^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42322.75	+271.69
		+0.65%
S&P 500	5916.93	+24.35
		+0.41%
NASDAQ	19112.32	-34.49
		-0.18%
TSX	25897.48	+205.03
		+0.80%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37755.51	-372.62
		-0.98%
HANG SENG	23453.16	-187.49
		-0.79%
SENSEX	82530.74	+1200.18
		+1.48%
FTSE 100*	8633.75	+48.74
		+0.57%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.147	3.259
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.478	3.568
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4315	4.5363
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8867	4.9696

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7166	0.7155
US $	1.3954	1.3976

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5617	0.6403
US $	1.1191	0.8935

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3191.95	3227.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.62	63.15

Market Commentary:
“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.”— Benjamin Graham
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a record high on Thursday, rising for an eighth-straight session as markets continue to rally after China and the United States on backed off their tariff battle on the weekend.
Even with commodity prices mixed, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 203.44 points to 25,895.89, topping the prior record close of 25,808.25 set on Jan. 30.
Among sectors, Industrials, up 1.78%, and Telecoms, up 1.33%, posted the biggest gains, with Energy and Base Metals down 1.34% and 0.83% respectively.
The Canadian market surpassing its prior peak provides a psychological milestone for traders and is “a sign of resilience” according to Colin Cieszynski, portfolio manager and chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.
“The market has taken everything that could be thrown at it and it’s still showing strength, and it still has breadth and that’s a really good thing,” he added.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8%, with nine of 11 sectors higher, led by industrials stocks.
As of market close, 139 of 217 stocks fell, while 76 rose.
Baytex Energy Corp. led the declines, falling 8.3%, while AtkinsRealis Group Inc. increased 11%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.8% to 25,897
* Nine of 11 sectors rose
** Industrials gained, up 1.8%
** Energy declined, down 0.6%
* Crude oil fell 2.2% to $62/bbl
* Natgas fell 4% to $3.35/mmbtu
* Gold rose 1.6% to $3,239/oz
* Silver rose 0.8% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* AtkinsRealis Group Inc. (ATRL CN) +11%: AtkinsRealis Boosts Nuclear Revenue Outlook, Shares Climb (1)
* MDA Space Ltd. (MDA CN) +7.7%
* Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES CN) +6.9%
* SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM CN) +6.6%
* Stantec Inc. (STN CN) +5.4%: Stantec 1Q Net Revenue Matches Estimates
Decliners:
* Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE CN) -8.3%
* Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET CN) -4.3%
* Capstone Copper Corp. (CS CN) -4.1%
* Cargojet Inc. (CJT CN) -3.9%
* Bird Construction Inc. (BDT CN) -3.7%: Bird Construction Drops as Firm Expects Most Growth in 2H (1)
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher as bond yields sank after the latest economic data spurred speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year to prevent a recession.
The S&P 500 rose for a fourth straight day.
Despite the gain, caution lurked in the background after a furious rally spurred worries about an overheated market, with the pendulum swinging in favor of defensive dividend-payers that had underperformed in the past month.
Meta Platforms Inc. paced losses in big tech on a news report it was delaying the rollout of a flagship AI model.
In late hours, Applied Materials Inc. gave a tepid forecast.
Treasuries climbed across the curve.
Longer-dated bonds were earlier whipsawed by large trades that briefly pushed the 30-year yield to nearly 5%.
The dollar dropped against most major currencies.
Prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined by the most in five years suggesting companies are absorbing some of the hit from higher tariffs.
Growth in retail sales decelerated notably.
Factory production declined for the first time in six months while New York state manufacturing contracted again.
And confidence among homebuilders slumped.
“If you are in the stagflation camp, these data aren’t confirming your thesis,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“While growth is slowing, disinflation remains intact.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 was little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.65%.
An index of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps fell 1.1%.
Canada’s stock benchmark hit a record with an eight-day rally.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries tumbled 10 basis points to 4.43%.
A dollar gauge lost 0.2%.
Oil slumped as Donald Trump said the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal regarding Tehran’s nuclear program.
Stocks are now trading like last month’s rout never happened.
The S&P 500 is about 4% away from an all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 swung from a bear market back into a bull market.
The advance is building as economic tensions between the US and China ease and the White House appears to be softening its approach to trade negotiations.
“I don’t want to get too excited, but we may actually be able to focus on company fundamentals for a while this summer,” said Lamar Villere, portfolio Manager at Villere & Co.
“If you’d told me a month ago that stocks would be up year-to-date when my kids finished their exams, I’d have called you a liar.”
Still, there’s little clarity over how the existing levies might impact the US economy or the trajectory the global trade war will take in coming months.
Fed Governor Michael Barr said the economy is on solid ground, but warned tariff-related supply-chain disruptions could lead to lower growth and higher inflation.
Recession remains a possibility as tariff fallout continues to buffet global economies, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
“Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” Dimon said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday at JPMorgan’s annual Global Markets Conference in Paris.
“If there is a recession, I don’t know how big it would be or how long it would last.”
Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees economic growth, clarity around Trump’s tariffs and continued earnings growth driving further stock-market gains through the rest of this year and next.
Strategists at the firm published a new S&P 500 forecast for 2026, expecting the US equity benchmark to climb to between 6,400 and 6,600 by year’s end.
WFII’s new 2025 year-end target is in a range of 5,900 to 6,100.
The gauge closed at 5,916.93 Thursday.
“Our constructive equity outlook is not an all clear for the riskiest areas of the markets,” the team wrote, emphasizing preference from US large- and mid-cap companies.
Equity gains will likely get harder from these elevated levels, so the relatively low cost of volatility hedges on offer right now hands investors an opportunity to build a defense against summer volatility.
“While we continue to expect a range of trade agreements to be reached to sustain the tariff rate at roughly the level during the pause period, ongoing uncertainty could trigger further bouts of market volatility,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Meantime, tax-bill discussions in Congress show the US “appears unwilling” to rein in its fiscal deficit, while foreigners are less inclined to finance it, creating a “major problem” for the dollar and the bond market, said George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank’s global head of currency strategy.
“Running a wider fiscal deficit requires foreigners to buy an ever-expanding number of US Treasuries and an ongoing rise of America’s foreign liabilities,” he wrote.
“This we believe is no longer sustainable.”
The dollar’s descent is elevating the price of hedging currency trades around the world, breaking up a long-standing market conviction that costs tend to come down when the greenback weakens.
The correlation between the dollar and a widely watched gauge of volatility in Group-of-10 currencies fell to the lowest level in seven years this week.
For most of the past 15 years that correlation was positive.

Corporate Highlights:
* Walmart Inc. delivered another quarter of solid sales and earnings growth but cautioned that tariffs and increasing economic turbulence means even the world’s largest retailer expects to raise prices.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. plummeted following a report that the insurer was under criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud, adding to an already tumultuous week.
* Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. reached a $2.4 billion deal to acquire Foot Locker Inc., combining two retailers troubled by President Trump’s tariff wars.
* Trump said he’s asked Apple Inc.’s Tim Cook to stop building plants in India to make devices for the US, pushing the iPhone maker to add domestic production as it pivots away from China.
* CVS Health Corp. is trying to buy stores and patient data from Rite Aid Corp., the beleaguered pharmacy chain that is going out of business after filing for bankruptcy a second time earlier this month.
* CoreWeave Inc. has secured a deal worth as much as $4 billion to provide additional cloud computing capacity to artificial intelligence leader OpenAI, expanding a tie-up between the two firms.
* Deere & Co.’s earnings beat the highest of analyst estimates, even as the world’s largest farm machinery maker trimmed its profit outlook for the year.
* Hackers had near-constant access to some of Coinbase Global Inc.’s most-valuable customer data since January, according to a person familiar with the incident who asked not to be named discussing company matters.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.65%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1184
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3305
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 145.62 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $103,183.53
* Ether fell 2.7% to $2,530.39
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 10 basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $61.80 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.7% to $3,231.82 an ounce

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” It is not certain that everything is uncertain.”– Blaise Pascal

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828