Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

June 13, 1983: Pioneer 10 becomes the first man-made object to leave the central solar system, crossing Neptune’s orbit – the outermost at the time.
On June 13, 1966, the Supreme Court issued its landmark Miranda vs. Arizona decision, ruling that criminal suspects must be informed of their constitutional rights prior to questioning by police. Go to article.

William Butler Yeats, poet, b.1865.
“And say my glory was I had such friends.” –William Butler Yeats, 1865-1939.

One Roman soldier had enormous feet, 2,000-year-old waterlogged leather shoe reveals
A surprisingly large leather shoe has been found at Magna, a Roman fort in northern England. Read More.

‘It’s a ticking time bomb’: Acid levels in Earth’s oceans have already breached ‘danger zone’, study suggests
Researchers have found that ocean acidification entered a “danger zone” in 2020, suggesting increased carbon dioxide levels have caused Earth to breach another planetary boundary. Read More.

Monster black hole jet from the early universe is basking in the ‘afterglow’ of the Big Bang
NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory has captured a striking image of a distant quasar from the “cosmic noon,” including a giant energy jet
“being illuminated by the leftover glow from the Big Bang itself.” Read More.

Superbugs evolve inside the human body — tracking them in real time could help save patients, scientists say
A new proof-of-concept study explored the feasibility of tracking the evolution of superbug infections in real time to help save infected patients. Read More.

Hats off to the first American pontiff
Or should we say “hats on”? Pope Leo XIV showed his allegiance to one Chicago sports team this week by donning a baseball cap during an appearance at the Vatican.

Hey look! It’s a new dinosaur.
Scientists have identified a previously unknown species that fills an early gap in the fossil record of tyrannosaurs. The 86-million-year-old dinosaur has been named Khankhuuluu mongoliensis (the “dragon prince of Mongolia”).

‘Jaws’ celebrates semi-centennial
It’s been 50 years since the release of the original summer blockbuster — and going to the beach hasn’t been the same since. To commemorate the film’s upcoming anniversary, NBC plans to air a shark-ton of “Jaws”-related content.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Visitors interact with an inflatable art installation at the Euphoria Art Is in the Air exhibition at the Grand Palais d’ete
Photograph: Stéphane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images

Fife, Scotland
Members of the art collective Sand in your Eye take part in creating a 40m-diameter sand drawing of Ludwig van Beethoven on Elie Beach, East Neuk, to celebrate the East Neuk festival, which starts at the end of June
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

​​​​​​​Lunch break … pelicans take over the benches in St James’s Park, London, UK
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 13^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42197.79	-769.83
		-1.79%
S&P 500	5976.97	-68.29
		-1.13%
NASDAQ	19406.83	-255.65
		-1.30%
TSX	26504.35	-111.40
		-0.42%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37834.25	-338.84
		-0.89%
HANG SENG	23892.56	-142.82
		-0.59%
SENSEX	81118.60	-573.38
		-0.70%
FTSE 100*	8850.63	-34.29
		-0.39%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.371	3.330
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.660	3.621
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3987	4.3592
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8938	4.8412

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7361	0.7352
US $	1.3585	1.3601

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5693	0.6372
US $	1.1551	0.8657

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3391.40	3229.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.98	68.04

Market Commentary:
‘Tis not altogether improbable, that when the nation become heartily sick of their debts, and are cruelly oppressed by them, some daring projector may arise with visionary schemes for their discharge.  And as public credit will begin, by that time, to be a little frail, the least touch will destroy it, as happened in France; and in this manner it will die of the doctor. -David Hume, “Of Public Credit”, 1752.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 26,504.35 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.6%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest drop, falling 5.3%.
Today, 126 of 217 shares fell, while 87 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.3%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on June 12, 2025 and 23.5% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.28t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.59% compared with 6.67% in the previous session and the average of 12.39% over the past month

Index
Financials | -77.3543| -0.9| 6/18
Information Technology | -73.1384| -2.9| 0/10
Industrials | -34.0832| -1.0| 4/23
Consumer Discretionary | -12.2745| -1.3| 1/9
Consumer Staples | -7.8422| -0.8| 0/10
Real Estate | -5.2711| -1.1| 0/19
Communication Services | -3.3763| -0.6| 1/4
Utilities | -2.3341| -0.2| 8/7
Health Care | 1.2047| 1.8| 2/1
Energy | 51.3507| 1.2| 33/8
Materials | 51.7244| 1.4| 32/17
Shopify | -45.8600| -3.6| -16.1| -6.4
RBC | -17.0600| -1.0| -44.2| 0.1
Manulife Financial | -16.9200| -3.2| -24.4| -4.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 10.6200| 1.8| -18.4| 50.4
Nutrien | 10.7500| 3.8| 162.1| 32.8
Suncor | 21.8200| 4.7| -31.0| 8.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell off a record high on Friday amid likely profit taking after two days of record closes and as one veteran market watcher, David Rosenberg, said “recessionary thumbprints” were all over today’s Canadian manufacturing sales data.
The resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 111.4 points at 26,504.35, but losses were capped due to higher commodity prices and the prospect of more gains to come for gold and oil as safe havens amid growing violence in in the Middle East after Israel launched strikes on Iran, sending all major global indices lower.
Most sectors were lower, led by Info Tech, down near 2.6%, and Industrials, down 1%.
Both Energy and Health Care were up by 2% or more.
On the Canadian economic picture, David Rosenberg said the Q1 pickup in the Canadian economy, as he had been suggesting all along, was “an illusionary pre-tariff spurt of growth”.
The second quarter is now looking to be “flat at best”, Rosenberg added, while noting manufacturing sales sagged -2.8% month over month in April, which was even worse than an already downcast -2.0% consensus estimate and followed on the heels of a -1.4% March slide.
This marks the third consecutive contraction in industrial activity, swinging the year over year trend from +1.4% in March to -2.7% in April and taking the level to its lowest reading since January 2022.
“And,” Rosenberg said, “you can’t totally blame lower oil prices because ex-energy shipments dropped by -1.8% MoM, which was matched by a comparable setback in total volume activity in the month.
In real or inflation-adjusted terms, shipments have now fallen in each of the past three months and in four of the past five — to the weakest level since January 2022.”
Rosenberg also noted wholesale trade dropped by 4.4% month over month and ex-energy by 2.2%, while volumes “crashed” by -4.6% sequentially and posted sizeable” declines in three of the past four months.
He said: “I realize that it is retail sales that always dominates the market’s attention and the air waves, but what is not appreciated is that retail sales are just 60% of the wholesale trade sector.
The wholesale price deflator is running at -2.6% on a YoY basis, swinging down from +6.4% a year ago.”
According to Rosenberg, “how the Bank of Canada can just sit on the sidelines as a casual observer is a good question as the disinflationary output gap widens further”.
But, he noted, the information to hand explains the behavior of the Canadian dollar, which has been the second weakest G-10 currency this year, “flattered only by the ever-sagging U.S. dollar”.
Sometimes, Rosenberg said, “giddiness and animal spirits can overtake the stock market even in the context of a squishy soft economy”.
The implications for April and Q2 GDP are “squarely negative” and “recession risks are alive and well”, he added.
Of commodities today, gold traded at a record high mid-afternoon on Friday as safe-haven buying surged after Israel launched overnight attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and military leadership.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $48.80 to US$3,451.20, topping the prior record close of $3,425.30 set on April 21.
On gold related matters, a court-appointed receiver plans to start sifting for gold in cyanide-laced water stored at the Eagle Gold Mine in Yukon, the Canadian Press is reporting, noting the Yukon government says proceeds will be used to help pay for some of the cleanup after the mine.
The failure of the mine’s heap-leach facility, which contained millions of tons of cyanide-laced ore and water, set off the disaster and subsequent takeover by the receiver, Friday’s report noted.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at a four-month high amid fears of a spreading conflict in the Persian Gulf, which supplies more than a fifth of the world’s oil.
WTI oil for July delivery closed up $4.94 to settle at US$72.98 per barrel, the highest since Feb. 11, after earlier touching US$77.62, while August Brent crude was last seen up 4.72 to US$74.08.
Staying on oil, Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist at Macquarie, published a note that was prepared prior to latest developments in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, and said Macquarie’s fundamentals “remain the same for the time being”.
Dwivedi said: “We anticipate bearish fundamentals and producer hedging will limit the continuation of the current rally and pressure oil price toward US$60 again over the next two to three months.
After peak summer runs and draws, our balances continue to point to a heavily oversupplied market.
That said, we believe the drivers of current price strength include a combination of macro, geopolitical, and crude microstructural factors.
Initially, Dwivedi noted, the market anticipated OPEC could announce an accelerated return of barrels in July greater than the 3-month increments planned in May and June.
Then May actuals came in below expectations, which caused the market to fade OPEC’s return trajectory, a dynamic that contributed to the recent rally.
Dwivedi said the recent cooling in trade tensions between the U.S. and China has renewed some macro-optimism and resulted in the reduced likelihood of a trade war 2.0 triggering a global economic slowdown.
He added this development could support better global oil demand outlooks and provide price support.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street buckled as reports of Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s attack on its nuclear facilities deepened concerns that the conflict is escalating, with oil jumping and stocks taking a hit.
The S&P 500 lost over 1%, wiping out this week’s advance.
Airline and travel companies tumbled, while energy producers and defense shares rose.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged more than 7%, the most since March 2022.
Gold hovered near its all-time high.
Treasuries fell as a surge in oil stoked concern about a resurgence in inflation.
The dollar edged up.
Iran fired hundreds of missiles in retaliation for Israel’s airstrikes that targeted Tehran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, broadening a conflict that threatens to engulf the region and roil global markets.
The Iranian attack, which Tehran said entailed hundreds of ballistic missiles, is the most forceful step yet by Tehran since Israel’s overnight raids killed top Iranian generals and badly damaged key military infrastructure.
“The lasting damage may be crude oil prices,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“This will certainly do some damage to the inflation statistics if it doesn’t roll back soon.”
The timing of the strike undercuts a risk-on week in which a key measure of inflation came lower than expected while the US and China made progress on trade talks.
The surge in oil raises fresh questions about supply-side price pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
President Donald Trump urged Iran to accept a nuclear deal with Washington to avoid further attacks, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed would probably happen over the coming days as Israel looks to deal a severe blow to Tehran’s nuclear program.
“The wild card is oil; a sustained increase in oil prices – particularly against the existing backdrop of uncertainty – could become an additional hurdle for the economy to overcome,” said Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
“The events of the past day increase that risk, but a sustained increase in oil prices still doesn’t look like the base-case scenario.”
Baird says it’s possible that oil prices could recede if conditions don’t escalate considerably in the coming days and if the conflict is largely contained between Israel and Iran.
Conversely, if the conflict were to expand or draw in additional parties across the region, the risk of a more sustained increase in oil prices – and a more notable impact on an already slowing global economy – would increase, he noted.
Ahead of the latest escalation in of geopolitical tensions, traders had boosted their bets on Fed rate cuts.
While those wagers receded slightly on Friday, money markets are still projecting two quarter-point reductions before the end of the year.
While Fed officials are widely expected to keep their benchmark rates on hold at next week’s policy meeting, they are set to release a quarterly update of economic and interest rate projections, known as the dot plot.
In March, they had outlined two cuts for this year.
At NatAlliance Securities, Andrew Brenner remarks that bond and stock markets will be closed the day after the Fed meeting due to a holiday.
And with Middle East fears, it should be a “tricky” week, he said.
Strategists at Barclays Plc recommended clients position for a “hawkish Fed surprise” next week as they expect officials to raise their inflation forecast for 2025 and pare back the number of cuts expected to “less than what the current modal pricing is.”
Before Friday, the S&P 500 hadn’t seen a move exceeding 0.6% in either direction for 11 of the past 12 sessions through Thursday — the longest such stretch since early December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge — the VIX — jumped to around 20.
A break of that level is often seen as a dividing line between calm and nervousness in markets.
“The market advance paused this week, as optimism on trade and inflation gave way to fear of a broadening war in the Middle East,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“While it is too early to gauge the longer-term impact from Israel’s strike, it is important to remember that geopolitical events tend to have short-term impacts, but limited impacts beyond the first month.”
Before tensions in the Middle East had ratcheted up, US stock funds suffered the biggest outflows in almost three months, according to data published by Bank of America Corp., adding to signs that the equity market rally is stalling.
About $9.8 billion was redeemed from US stocks in the week through Wednesday, the most in 11 weeks, according to EPFR Global data cited by the bank. Even European funds, which have been popular with investors this year, suffered their first outflows in nine weeks at $600 million.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Trump administration is taking steps that would make it easier for automakers to deploy-self driving cars without driver controls, a potential boon to the ambitions of Tesla Inc. and rivals looking to put robotaxis on US roads in the near future.
* Boeing Co. delivered its first aircraft to a Chinese airline customer since President Donald Trump unleashed a wave of tariffs in early April, a sign of rapprochement as Washington and Beijing look to ease tensions.
* Adobe Inc. fell after the creative-software company gave a sales outlook for the current quarter that failed to calm investors who have been skeptical it can hold its own against AI-focused upstarts.
* Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart Inc. are among large multinational companies which have recently discussed issuing their own stablecoins in the US, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people.
* Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. fell. Any moves by global retailers to set up their own blockchain-based payment rails could hit credit card issuers’ revenues.
* Boeing Co. Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg finds himself in a painfully familiar role as he faces another crisis, this time over a crash involving the company’s marquee 787 Dreamliner jet in India that killed more than 240 people.
* Ford Motor Co. continues to struggle to obtain rare earth magnet supplies that are essential to car production and have already forced a temporary shutdown of one of its factories.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1548
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3571
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 143.95 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $105,163.95
* Ether fell 4.2% to $2,529.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 7.5% to $73.17 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,432.89 an ounce

–With assistance from Julien Ponthus, Allegra Catelli, Andre
Janse van Vuuren, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Emily Graffeo.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent.

As ever,

Carolann
Happiness is not a station you arrive at, but a manner of travelling. -Ogden Nash, 1902-1971.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday Eve.
June 12, 1898: Filipino revolutionary forces under Emilio Aguinaldo proclaim independence from Spanish colonial rule, marking the birth of the Philippine nation.
On June 12, 1987, during a visit to the divided German city of Berlin, President Ronald Reagan publicly challenged Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev to ”tear down this wall.”  Go to article.

George H.W. Bush, 41^st US President, b. 1924.
Anne Frank, writer, b. 1929.
June 12, 1939, Baseball Hall of Fame opened.

‘Strawberry Moon’ in pictures: Major lunar standstill sees June’s full moon hang low in the sky
Tuesday night’s “Strawberry Moon” hovered lower in the night sky than it had done since 2006. Here are some stunning global snaps of June’s full moon during the major lunar standstill. Read More.

Russian scientists discover a new island in the Caspian Sea — the world’s largest inland body of water
Researchers have confirmed the existence of a new island in the northern part of the Caspian Sea, but they haven’t managed to land on it yet. Read More.

Almost half of California’s faults — including San Andreas — are overdue for earthquakes
California’s earthquakes are far more likely to be “overdue” compared with earthquakes in the rest of the world. Read More.

‘People thought this couldn’t be done’: Scientists observe light of ‘cosmic dawn’ with a telescope on Earth for the first time ever
For the first time, astronomers have used a ground-based telescope to observe polarized microwave light from the universe’s earliest epoch. Their observations could give them a better understanding of how the universe evolved. Read More.

Surprise! That’s some unique DNA.
Scientists studying 6,000-year-old skeletons found in the Eastern Colombian Andes made an interesting discovery: The subjects belonged to a previously unknown population.
‘I’m missing you like mad’
A love letter written by John Lennon to his first wife will be up for auction next month. The four-page missive is expected to fetch more than $50,000.

“We want peace for Ukraine. Despite weeks of diplomatic attempts, despite (Ukraine’s) President (Volodymyr) Zelensky’s offer of an unconditional ceasefire, Russia continues to bring death and destruction to Ukraine. Russia’s goal is not peace, it is to impose the rule of might.” — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, after the European Union announced a new package of sanctions against Russia.

‘There’s a cost to grace’
“Lights Out: Nat ‘King’ Cole,” a new play starring Dulé Hill (“The West Wing,” “The Wonder Years”), explores the trials and triumphs of the late crooner.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bruton, UK
A pilot checks rigging inside a hot air balloon before a sunrise launch over Gilcombe farm, Somerset, to announce the Show of Hands music and arts festival
Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA

Latakia, Syria
A man rides a jetski off the Mediterranean coast
Photograph: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty

London, England
The main room of the newly opened V&A East Storehouse Museum at the former site of the 2012 Olympic Games
Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty
Market Closes for June 12^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42967.62	+101.85
		+0.24%
S&P 500	6045.26	+23.02
		+0.38%
NASDAQ	19662.48	+46.60
		+0.24%
TSX	26615.75	+91.59
		+0.35%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38173.09	-248.10
		-0.65%
HANG SENG	24035.38	-331.56
		-1.36%
SENSEX	81691.98	-823.16
		-1.00%
FTSE 100*	8884.92	+20.27
		+0.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.330	3.352
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.621	3.644
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3595	4.4203
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8412	4.9172

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7352	0.7316
US $	1.3601	1.3668

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5762	0.6344
US $	1.1588	0.8629

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3229.70	3337.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.04	68.15

Market Commentary:
For whosoever hath, to him shall be given, and he shall have more abundance: but whosoever hath not, from him shall be taken away even that he hath. – Matthew 13:12.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.3%, or 91.59 to 26,615.75 in Toronto.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.6%.
TransAlta Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.5%.
Today, 153 of 217 shares rose, while 61 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.8%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1% in the past 5 days and rose 4.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.67% compared with 6.79% in the previous session and the average of 13.40% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 36.3547| 0.4| 21/4
Materials | 33.4367| 0.9| 33/16
Energy | 30.4652| 0.7| 21/18
Industrials | 12.8809| 0.4| 20/8
Consumer Staples | 11.5074| 1.1| 8/2
Utilities | 8.6776| 0.9| 12/3
Communication Services | 7.1995| 1.2| 5/0
Real Estate | 3.4389| 0.7| 17/2
Consumer Discretionary | 2.3881| 0.3| 5/5
Health Care | 1.2923| 2.0| 3/1
Information Technology | -56.0534| -2.2| 8/2
Enbridge | 15.2800| 1.6| -37.9| 4.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 12.8400| 2.2| -32.3| 47.7
Barrick Mining | 9.8110| 2.9| 14.1| 27.8
Ivanhoe Mines | -3.9210| -7.2| 182.1| -41.4
Teck Resources | -4.4390| -2.7| -13.3| -11.4
Shopify | -63.4300| -4.8| -11.1| -2.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a second-straight record high on Thursday as investors appear confident that an all-out global trade war can still be avoided, despite ongoing threats from the United States against a plethora of nations, including Canada, while National Bank offered some thoughts for
Canadians around “gaming out” trade talks with their North American neighbors.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the session up 91.5 points at 26,615.75, even with commodity prices mixed, and some sectors lower.
Among sectors, Telecoms, up 1.2%, and Health Care, up 1.1%, were the biggest gainers.
But the Battery Metals Index was down 1.3%, Info Tech was down near 0.8% and Base Metals eased 0.6%.
Of individual stocks, Optiva (OPT.TO) saw its shares climb more than 100%, climbing $1.36 to $2.66.
At the request of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, Optiva confirmed it is not aware of any material undisclosed information related to the company that would account for the increase.
More than 50,000 shares changed hands, near 10 times the average.
On trade and tariffs, National Bank Geopolitical Analyst Angelo Katsoras in a note entitled ‘Geopolitical Briefing: Gaming out trade negotiations with the United States’ said the bottom line for Canadians is that Prime Minister Mark Carney must convince U.S. President Trump that Canada is essential to the U.S. supply chain as the country rebuilds its industrial base amid rising energy costs and logistical challenges.
According to Katsoras, Trump’s reversal of many of his tariffs has been “a sliver of good news”.
For example, he noted, after imposing a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods, Trump soon granted exemptions for most products compliant with USMCA rules of origin.
Though, he also noted, notable exemptions remain, citing automobiles, steel, and aluminum.
Katsoras said: “This allows the vast majority of Canadian exports to enter the United States tariff free.
More rollbacks may follow as economic concerns grow and the U.S. mid-term elections approach, with Republicans trying to hold on to their slim majority in Congress.”
When we examine the longevity of many of Trump’s tariffs, it is important to note that, while the President secured a solid victory in the 2024 election, it was not a landslide.
He garnered only 49.8% of the popular vote, just 1.5 percentage points more than the Democratic candidate, Katsoras noted.
Future U.S. administrations, whether Republican or Democratic, are likely to take a less protectionist approach toward Canada, provided that Canada aligns with U.S. positions on tariffs and geopolitical priorities, Katsoras said.
However, he added, a return to the level of free trade seen in past decades is unlikely.
Katsoras noted that although Trump’s embrace of tariffs is unprecedented, support for protectionist measures has grown across both parties, particularly with respect to China.
President Biden retained many of Trump’s tariffs and expanded them in key sectors.
His Inflation Reduction Act introduced hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for favored industries, prompting Canada and other countries to increase their own subsidies to remain competitive, Katsoras said
Additionally, once tariffs are in place, industries that benefit from them often lobby to keep some of them in place.
A notable example of this is the 25% tariff on European trucks imposed in 1964 and still in effect today, Katsoras added.
Finally, Katsoras said, Canada’s deep economic and political ties with the United States leave little room for major policy differences in areas such as trade, defense, and regulations.
Like smaller nations neighboring China jjjor smaller E.U. member states aligning with dominant regional powers, Canada often follows Washington’s lead, Katsoras added.
For instance, he noted under Biden, Canada mirrored U.S. actions by imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese Evs and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum.
“Eliminating these tariffs would greatly jeopardize access to the U.S. market.
This pattern is likely to continue in an era of rising protectionism, reshoring and intensifying global rivalries.”
Meanwhile, the chief economist at one of Europe’s largest banks said Canada stands to gain as global investors rethink their focus on the U.S, according to a report from The Canadian Press.
BNP Paribas chief economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said in an interview that the volatility in the U.S. is making investors regain an appreciation of the value of stable returns and predictability, even if it means giving up some of the outsized gains it has offered in recent years.
“The general situation is every investor on the face of the planet has been very overweight (the) U.S. economy and is now going through a thought process of thinking, maybe I shouldn’t be so overweight the U.S. economy, and I need to diversify and find alternatives,” she said.
“So, every other geography is going through a bit of a beauty contest right now in the eyes of global investors, and has an opportunity to shine, and I think Canada is one of those.”
Mateos y Lago, who was in Toronto this week visiting clients, said Canada’s recent election helps give the country some momentum, while efforts to address structural barriers like internal trade will also help growth.
“It’s a moment of opportunity and so I would be shocked if Canada didn’t benefit from it.”
Among commodities today, gold was sharply higher late afternoon on Thursday as rising Middle East tensions supports safe-haven buying and the dollar fell to the lowest in three years amid slowing U.S. inflation.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $65.20 to US$3.408.90 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell off a five-week high even as the dollar fell to the lowest in three years and Middle East tensions are rising.
WTI oil for July delivery closed down $0.11 to settle at US$68.04 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down $0.08 to US$69.71.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A solid sale of long-term Treasuries reduced fears that spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the bonds, with the market also gaining as soft inflation fueled bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates should the economy decelerate.
The dollar hit a three-year low.
Stocks rose.
US 30-year yields approached the 4.8% mark after the $22 billion auction.
The S&P 500 closed at the highest since Feb. 20, ending at a striking distance of its all-time high.
Oracle Corp. climbed to a record on a strong sales outlook.
Geopolitical worries briefly weighed on equities as ABC News reported Israel is considering military action against Iran.
Oil pared most of its losses.
US inflation remained muted in May, a sign that tariffs have yet to result in higher prices for consumers and businesses.
The producer price index rose 0.1% from a month earlier, compared with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists that called for a 0.2% increase.
“For the second day in a row, inflation data came in lower than expected, and this gives the Fed room to sit on their hands,” said Chris Zaccarelliat Northlight Asset Management.
“As long as inflation isn’t increasing – or even better, is decreasing – the Fed can be patient and wait for more information on how the new tariffs and trade negotiations are going to impact the price stability part of their dual mandate later this year.”
As more evidence emerged of slowing inflation, President Donald Trump reiterated his complaints that the Fed has not moved quickly enough to cut rates.
Trump also noted he did not plan to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, days after saying he would “soon” pick his nominee to lead the central bank next.
On the trade front, Trump said he may raise US auto tariffs in order to boost domestic auto manufacturing, a move that could further ratchet up tensions with trading partners.
Shares of General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis NV fell.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that there are a number of different assessments of the deficit impact of Republicans’ signature tax-cut bill, and that his own expectation is it will shrink borrowing over a decade.
“While stocks have rebounded and are approaching the record levels seen in February, investors may soon be wondering what could push stocks beyond that threshold,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
“The next catalyst for markets may be a trade deal with China, the extension of the 2017 tax cuts and the prospect of Fed rate cuts as inflation continues to soften.”
Traders who hung on during this year’s tariff-fueled roller-coaster ride in stocks are facing a conundrum: Bonds may offer more attractive returns in coming years, according to one widely tracked measure.
The equity risk premium, which investors use to determine the difference between expected returns on equities and US Treasuries, is hovering around its lowest point since 2002, data from Bloomberg Intelligence showed.
That suggests stocks are more expensive relative to bonds than they have been for most of the last two decades, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.
Ned Davis Research is the latest Wall Street firm to raise its S&P 500 target after US stocks recovered their losses from Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs but admitted to the difficulty of trying to make equity market forecasts against the current macroeconomic backdrop.
The firm lifted its year-end estimate for US stock benchmark to 6,350 from 5,550.
Meantime, ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood says corporate America is regaining its appetite for risk as expectations build around Trump’s push for deregulation and tax cuts.
Speaking on Bloomberg’s Trumponomics podcast during the Founders Forum Global conference in Oxford, Wood said major US firms are ramping up capital spending in response to a more business-friendly policy outlook.
She cited Meta Platforms Inc.’s reported investment in the AI startup Scale AI as one sign of that shift.
The US stock market is back on track and within spitting distance of February’s all-time highs.
Yet corporate executives are dumping shares at the fastest clip since November.
A gauge of insider sentiment, which tracks the numbers of buyers versus sellers, shows that 200 insiders bought shares this month through June 11, while 778 sold shares, according to data compiled by the Washington Service.
That puts the buy to sell ratio at around 0.26, the lowest since November when Trump’s reelection triggered a months-long rally.

Corporate Highlights:
* The deadly crash of an Air India long-range aircraft on Thursday marks the first-ever complete loss of a Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliner, shining a spotlight on the US planemaker’s most advanced aircraft.
* Oracle Corp. projected cloud infrastructure sales will jump more than 70% in the fiscal year that began this month, boosting shares in late trading on investor enthusiasm for the closely watched business.
* Arm Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Rene Haas said that US export controls in China threaten to slow overall technological advances and are ultimately bad for consumers and companies, aligning himself with Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang and others looking to ease tensions between Washington and Beijing.
* A senior Trump administration official projected that Huawei Technologies Co.’s output of its Ascend AI chip will be at or below 200,000 for 2025, responding to US lawmakers’ concerns that China is gaining ground in production of advanced semiconductors.
* CoreWeave Inc.’s soaring share price is torching short sellers who are paying high prices to bet that the stock will soon fall back to earth.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s decision to split into two independent companies is a sign of a broader “shakeout” across a media industry that has become increasingly dominated by streaming and on-demand services, Netflix Inc. co-Chief Executive Officer Greg Peters said.
* Chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. said it will spend about $200 billion on US manufacturing, research and development, the latest company to pledge large-scale investments in the country since President Trump won the election.
* GameStop Corp. plans to offer $1.75 billion worth of convertible bonds, which would make the video-game retailer one of the year’s biggest issuers of the equity-linked securities.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.1576
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3602
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 143.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $106,873.29
* Ether fell 4.2% to $2,698.55
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to4.35%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.48%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.48%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,388.38 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical. –Yogi Berra, 1925-2015.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Full moon tonight!  It’s the strawberry moon.  King Kamehameha Day, Hawaii.

June 11,1817: German inventor Karl Drais demonstrates the first predecessor of the modern bicycle – the Laufmaschine, a two-wheeled, pedal-less vehicle, covering 14 km in under an hour.
June 11, 1942: The United States and the Soviet Union signed a lend lease agreement to aid the Soviet war effort in World War II. Go to article.

Richard Strauss, composer, b. 1864.
Jacques Cousteau, undersea explorer, b. 1910.
William Styron, writer, b. 1925.

‘Lost Colony’ of Roanoke may have assimilated into Indigenous society, archaeologist claims — but not everyone is convinced
The recent discovery of copious amounts of iron trash on North Carolina’s Hatteras Island may reveal the fate of a 16th-century “Lost Colony.” Read More.

When is the summer solstice in 2025? It depends on your time zone.
The summer solstice, the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, falls on June 20 this year in North America. Read More.

Haunting blood-red squid with large hooks drifts through Antarctic ocean’s midnight zone in world-first video
Researchers have filmed a living Antarctic gonate squid in a world-first sighting deep in the ocean surrounding Antarctica. Read More.

IBM will build monster 10,000-qubit quantum computer by 2029 after ‘solving science’ behind fault tolerance — the biggest bottleneck to scaling up
The quantum computer, called Starling, will use 200 logical qubits — and IBM plans to follow this up with a 2,000-logical-qubit machine in 2033. Read More.

First-ever image of China’s mysterious ‘quasi moon’ probe revealed weeks after it secretly launched into space
A new image released by China’s space agency offers the first glimpse at the Tianwen 2 spacecraft, which is en route to collect samples from one of Earth’s “quasi-moons”. The photo shows some surprising similarities with a current NASA probe. Read More.

Summer McIntosh’s super summer
The Canadian swimming phenom made history for the second time in three days by smashing a decade-old record in the 200m individual medley.

Dress like a princess
Over 100 pieces from the late Princess Diana’s wardrobe will go up for auction this month. 

Hack your body’s sleep system
Always feeling tired? Here are four things you can do to make the most of your circadian rhythm.

68.2:  That’s about how many miles ultrarunner Will Goodge ran every day while completing his 2,387-mile run across Australia in 35 days. 

RIP: Brian D. Wilson of The Beach Boys,  1942-2025.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Roslin, Scotland
A conservator examines stonework on the south facade of Rosslyn chapel, which featured in the film The Da Vinci Code, during annual maintenance work
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Saumur, France
A groom at the Cadre Noir de Saumur, part of the French military riding academy, prepares saddles for a morning show
Photograph: Loïc Venance/AFP/Getty Images

Washington DC, US
The Capitol building at dawn, before of the US army’s 250th anniversary celebration and parade
Photograph: Alexander Drago/Reuters
Market Closes for June 11^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42865.77	-1.10
		—
S&P 500	6022.24	-16.57
		-0.27%
NASDAQ	19615.88	-99.11
		-0.50%
TSX	26524.16	+97.85
		+0.37%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38421.19	+209.68
		+0.55%
HANG SENG	24366.94	+204.07
		+0.84%
SENSEX	82515.14	+123.42
		+0.15%
FTSE 100*	8864.35	+11.27
		+0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.352	3.345
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.644	3.617
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4203	4.4698
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9172	4.9274

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7316	0.7315
US $	1.3668	1.3670

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5710	0.6365
US $	1.1494	0.8700

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3337.70	3319.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.15	64.98

Market Commentary:
Funny thing about these skyscrapers.  Not a single one was built by a bear! -J.P. Morgan, 1837-1913.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 97.85 to 26,524.16 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on June 2.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 5 of 11 sectors gained; 111 of 217 shares rose, while 104 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.5%.
Dollarama Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.8%.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.4%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 4.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.25t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.79% compared with 6.86% in the previous session and the average of 13.71% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 57.6233| 1.3| 36/5
Information Technology | 52.7280| 2.1| 5/5
Consumer Discretionary | 26.0426| 3.0| 3/7
Materials | 20.4617| 0.6| 29/20
Health Care | 0.0208| 0.0| 1/2
Communication Services | -0.7109| -0.1| 2/3
Utilities | -2.1805| -0.2| 5/10
Real Estate | -2.9113| -0.6| 2/17
Industrials | -3.0968| -0.1| 17/11
Consumer Staples | -16.0467| -1.5| 2/8
Financials | -34.0739| -0.4| 9/16
Shopify | 44.4200| 3.5| 4.8| 2.0
Dollarama | 33.4900| 9.8| 202.1| 37.6
Suncor | 14.3200| 3.2| -15.2| 3.5
RBC | -7.4400| -0.4| -48.2| 0.8
Couche-Tard | -8.9960| -2.2| 4.2| -8.8
TD Bank | -9.5760| -0.8| -20.2| 25.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a record high on Wednesday, even with sectors mixed, as Scotiabank said recessions are likely to be avoided in Canada and the United States “unless uncertainty and tariffs rise further,” though it did note there are “clear signs” of an economic slowdown across North America.
Boosted by elevated commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed was up 97.65 points to 26,524.16, topping the prior record high of 26,429.13 set on June 6.
Among sectors, Energy, up 2.2%, and Info Tech, up 1.4%, were the biggest gainers.
Base Metals, down 1.65%, and the Battery Metals Index, down 1.2%, were the biggest losers.
Staying with sectors, economist David Rosenberg on Wednesday afternoon published a note entitled ‘Canadian Utilities: A Single-Sector Diversification Strategy’ in which he said the sector “combines elements of both stocks and bonds, making it a useful addition to most portfolios”.
“Who needs a classic 60-40 asset mix? It’s all embedded in this one sector, with hedges against recession/expansion/inflation/deflation expressed right here in the Utilities space.
Imagine that: a single-sector diversification strategy — the ability to play both defense and offense at the same time.
Ergo, Utilities should be a core part of anyone’s portfolio. Full stop,” Rosenberg wrote.
Elsewhere, Scotiabank, in a Wednesday note entitled ‘Cloudy with a Chance of Tariff Relief’, said fiscal measures in Canada will provide support to growth this year, with the potential for significantly more support pending policy announcements by federal and provincial governments.
But Scotia did acknowledge that inflation remains a concern that will limit the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve’s ability to support the economy in 2025.
“Inflation control will require much vigilance by central banks,” it added.
Scotiabank expects both central banks to remain on hold this year and to lower rates in 2026.
Among commodities, gold futures rose late afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar and yields fell after a report showed U.S. inflation eased last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$26.30 to US$3,369.70 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed up nearly 5% to a five-week high after trade talks between the United States and China ended with a tentative deal to relax export controls on sensitive goods and technologies.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $3.17 to settle at US$68.15 per barrel, the highest since April 2, while August Brent crude was last seen up $2.29 to US$69.16.

US
By Rita Nazareth and Andre Janse van Vuuren
(Bloomberg) — A slide in big tech dragged down stocks, following a rally that drove the S&P 500 to a striking distance of its all-time highs.
Earlier gains were fueled by surprisingly benign inflation data that stoked bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, spurring a drop in bond yields.
Equities halted a three-day advance, with Apple Inc. down about 2% and Tesla Inc. little changed after a nearly 3% surge.
In late hours, Oracle Corp. surged after revenue beat estimates.
Treasuries also climbed after a solid $39 billion sale of 10- year debt.
The advance was led by shorter maturities, with two- year yields dropping below 4%.
The dollar hit the lowest since 2023.
US core inflation rose in May by less than forecast, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
President Donald Trump said a trade framework with China has been completed, with Beijing supplying rare earths and magnets “UP FRONT” and the US allowing Chinese students into its colleges and universities.
Despite Wednesday’s losses, the S&P 500 has seen a torrid rally from the brink of a bear market in April.
Much of the bounce, which topped 20%, has been pinned on hopes that Trump would lower his tariffs after reaching deals with countries around the world.
“Given the rebound in equities and elevated expectations, the bar has been raised to break out to a fresh high, likely requiring an increase in earnings expectations,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
The string of below-forecast inflation readings adds to evidence that consumers have yet to feel the pinch of tariffs — perhaps because the most punitive levies have temporarily been on pause, or thanks to companies so far absorbing the extra costs or boosting inventory.
However, if higher levies set in, shielding consumers from those costs will become more difficult.
“It’s far too early to call tariffs an inflation non- event,” said Ronald Temple at Lazard.
“Ultimately, companies will have to swallow some combination of price increases to pay for higher tariffs, cost cuts to offset increased import costs, and/or lower profit margins.
I don’t see evidence in this early report of widespread price increases, but I do expect higher inflation this year as firms react to the tariffs.”
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, while the latest inflation report didn’t come in hot, the consumer price index hasn’t made a lot of progress lately.
Looking forward, investors should pay close attention to the Fed next week, he said.
“So far, Chair Jerome Powell has walked a tightrope when it comes to monetary policy,” Kenwell noted.
“While Powell doesn’t give many clues on future Fed decisions and does a good job not to tip his hand, investors crave certainty and will be looking for some answers during next week’s Fed press conference.
” Following the report, Trump reiterated his call for the Fed to lower interest rates by “one full point.”
“Would pay much less interest on debt coming due. So important!!!” he posted on Truth Social.
Money markets projected about two Fed reductions by the end of 2025 as traders boosted bets on a September cut to around 75%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Shares of several American steelmakers fell after the US and Mexico closed in on a deal to remove tariffs on some imports of the metal, prompting speculation that other nations could also get concessions.
* The Air Force has cut in half its request to Congress for its signature F-35s, dealing a blow to Lockheed Martin Corp., the top US defense contractor.
* Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Aviation Administration vowed to hold Boeing Co. accountable for the quality of its jets as the US plane maker works to produce its cash cow 737 Max aircraft at higher rates.
* Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said investment-banking fees will likely drop about 25% in the second quarter as Trump’s policy announcements continue to chill dealmaking.
* Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said Wednesday that quantum computing is reaching an inflection point and will be powerful enough in the coming years to help “solve some interesting problems” globally.
* General Motors Co. plans to invest $4 billion in its US plants over the next two years in response to Trump’s tariffs in a move that reduces production in Mexico while boosting domestic output of some of its some of its top-selling gas-powered vehicles.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. projected profit for the current quarter that trailed Wall Street’s expectations — a hit to the fledging turnaround being led by a chief executive officer in her first year.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1483
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3539
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $108,771.28
* Ether rose 1.4% to $2,813.97
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.5% to $67.92 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,347.39 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
I’d like to live as a poor man with lots of money. –Pablo Picasso, 1881-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Tuesday.
June 10, 1907: The first practical and commercially successful colour photography process, Autochrome Lumière, is introduced by the Lumière brothers.
June 10, 1935: Alcoholics Anonymous founded
June 10, 1943: Ballpoint pen patented.
On June 10, 1967, the Six-Day War ended as Israel and Syria agreed to observe a United Nations-mediated cease-fire.

Saul Bellow, writer, b. 1915.
Judy Garland, actress, b. 1922.
Maurice Sendak, artist, b. 1928.
F. Lee Bailey, lawyer, b. 1939.
Elizaberh Hurley, actress, b. 1965

Gold coins from ‘world’s richest shipwreck’ reveal 300-year-old depictions of castles, lions and Jerusalem crosses
Researchers used robotic diving vehicles to study gold coins on the seafloor by the wreck of the Spanish galleon San José. Read More.

Ancient DNA from Papua New Guinea reveals centuries of genetic isolation
A new analysis of the ancient DNA of 42 people from Papua New Guinea reveals that some cultures were remarkably isolated for centuries. Read More.

See a young star potentially giving birth to a giant planet in new image from Very Large Telescope
New images of a young star, 2MASSJ1612, could have captured the birth of a giant gas planet larger than Jupiter. Read More.

Hammerhead shark falls from sky in South Carolina, interrupting disc golf game
An osprey flying over Myrtle Beach dropped the small shark from a tree after being harassed by crows. Read More.

Monster black hole M87 is spinning at 80% of the cosmic speed limit — and pulling in matter even faster
The famous black hole M87 keeps surprising us. New research calculates its spin speed to be at 80% of the theoretical limit, with matter falling into its maw even faster. Read More.

AI reasoning models aren’t as smart as they were cracked up to be, Apple study claims
A new study by Apple has ignited controversy in the AI field by showing how reasoning models undergo ‘complete accuracy collapse’ when overloaded with complex problems. Read More.
Whole Foods’ distributor hacked
United Natural Foods, Inc., one of America’s largest publicly traded health food wholesalers, has taken some of its systems offline after a massive cyberattack.

Highlights from the red carpet
What theatrical garb did Broadway’s biggest names wear to the 2025 Tony Awards? Here are 13 fabulous looks.

Talk about motivation!
Wanna be in an Adam Sandler movie? Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry may get the chance — if he rushes for more than 2,000 yards this year.

686,061:  That’s how many babies were born in Japan in 2024. It’s the first time the number of newborns fell below 700,000 since record-keeping began in 1899. 

“Ending a $5 million research study when it is 80% complete does not save $1 million, it wastes $4 million.” — National Institutes of Health staffers, in a letter to their boss, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, about what they see as the politicization of research and the destruction of scientific progress under the Trump administration.

RIP: Bestselling author Frederick Forsyth dies at 86
The thriller writer penned more than 25 books, including “The Day of the Jackal,” which was adapted into a film starring Edward Fox in 1973, and more recently a TV series starring Eddie Redmayne. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Piedmont, Italy
Britain’s Simon Yates pedals up the Colle delle Finestre climb during stage 20 of the Giro d’Italia, from Verrès to Sestriere. Yates reflected on a ‘sweet success’ he had been targeting for much of his life after a spectacular and decisive coup in Saturday’s final mountain stage ensured he would ride to victory in the Giro on Sunday. He said: ‘I’ve spent a lot of my life targeting this race. There’s been a lot of setbacks, and it has been hard to deal with. I’m in disbelief that I have finally managed to pull it off.’
Photograph: Luca Bettini/AFP/Getty Images

Sanur, Bali
Anglers fishing at sunrise
Photograph: Sonny Tumbelaka/AFP/Getty Images

London, UK
Part of Yoshitomo Nara’s record collection on display at the Hayward Gallery, where a major retrospective of the leading Japanese artist will open on Tuesday
Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 10^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42866.87	+105.11
		+ 0.25%
S&P 500	6038.81	+32.93
		+0.55%
NASDAQ	19714.99	+123.75
		+0.63%
TSX	26426.31	+50.51
		+0.19%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38211.51	+122.94
		+0.32%
HANG SENG	24162.87	-18.56
		-0.08%
SENSEX	82391.72	-53.49
		-0.06%
FTSE 100*	8853.08	+20.80
		+0.24%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.345	3.354
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.617	3.621
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4698	4.4738
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9274	4.9397

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7315	0.7299
US $	1.3670	1.3700

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5623	0.6400
US $	1.1429	0.8749

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3319.30	3339.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.98	64.58

Market Commentary:
Never make the big mistake. –Warren Buffett, b. 1930.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 26,426.31 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.4%.
Today, 109 of 217 shares rose, while 105 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.1%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on June 6, 2025, and 23.1% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is unchanged in the past 5 days and rose 4.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.24t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 6.86% compared with 6.86% in the previous session and the average of 14.04% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 29.2305| 1.2| 5/5
Consumer Staples | 20.9828| 2.1| 9/1
Energy | 13.5183| 0.3| 28/11
Financials | 13.0507| 0.2| 8/16
Consumer Discretionary | 6.2727| 0.7| 8/2
Utilities | 4.6509| 0.5| 12/3
Real Estate | 2.4763| 0.5| 9/10
Communication Services | 1.7255| 0.3| 3/2
Health Care | 0.9653| 1.5| 4/0
Industrials | 0.0423| 0.0| 13/15
Materials | -42.4212| -1.2| 10/40
Shopify | 27.6200| 2.2| -19.8| -1.4
Couche-Tard | 13.9000| 3.6| 4.4| -6.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.0600| 1.7| 70.4| -0.8
Manulife Financial | -5.3180| -1.0| 1.3| -0.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -7.4780| -1.3| -21.0| 42.3
Cameco | -13.0700| -4.7| 46.7| 18.1
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Tuesday but fell just short of last week’s record close as National Bank says Canadian investors have “sat relatively comfortably in the unknown” on interest rates, while adding “the BoC has been happy to keep them there”.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended Tuesday’s session up 50.5 points at 26,426,31, single digit points below a Friday’s record.
One of three days last week it posted such a record. Lower commodity prices likely helped in keeping the resources heavy index from posting a fresh one today.
Most sectors were up, led by Health Care up near 2.4%, and with both the Battery Metals Index and Energy up more than 1%.
Base Metals was flat to lower.
National Bank on Tuesday published a note entitled ‘Be certain of BoC uncertainty’.
The bank found the Bank of Canada “isn’t just more uncertain than the FOMC”.
It said: “Uncertainty surrounding BoC decisions has proven more pronounced than any other advanced economy central bank.”
To quantify its claim, National Bank calculated the percentage of time central bank expectations for the next meeting deviate from a ‘certain’ outcome.
It defined certainty as OIS (overnight indexed swaps) pricing plus or minus five basis points of a possible outcome (i.e., no change, increments of 25 bps).
By this definition, it said, for over 90% of 2025, markets have been unsure how the next BoC decision would play out.
Over the past year, it added, this percentage exceeds 75%.
According to National Bank, this finding is “robust to the size of the certainty band” (e.g., if certainty were defined as plus or minus 10 bps of an outcome, the BoC is still most uncertain).
“Uncertainty does not necessarily mean volatility, however. BoC rate expectations have not swung as wildly inter-meeting as others, this year or last,” National Bank said, before adding: “Put differently, Canadian investors have sat relatively comfortably in the unknown, and the BoC has been happy to keep them there.”
True to form, National Bank said, expectations for the BoC’s July decision opened as a ‘coin flip’ immediately after last week’s meeting.
It noted that while Friday’s jobs data pushed markets in the direction of a hold, this meeting is still too close to call.
Another jobs report, two inflation reports, April GDP and a Business Outlook Survey will all have serious sway, National Bank said.
It added: “We still believe a cut next month is more likely than not, which brings us to the benefits of persistent uncertainty.
There are clear and frequent opportunities in trading near-dated BoC meetings for those with strong conviction on the rate path.
However, you’ll also need the stomach to weather the notorious volatility of Canadian economic data.”
In a separate note also published today, National Bank said in Canada new and pre-existing labor market slack still needs to be addressed in its view.
Indeed, it noted, of the 38 OECD economies, only three have endured a larger unemployment rate increase (from the post-COVID trough) than Canada.
“Unfortunately, we fear Canada’s labour market will get worse before it gets better which should intensify calls for Bank of Canada support in the months ahead,” the bank added.
Of commodities today, gold futures edged down mid-afternoon on Tuesday as the market watches trade talks between China and the United States that are now in their second day.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$10.60 to US$3,344.30 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for the first time in four sessions on Tuesday, amid uncertainty around the talks between China and the States.
WTI oil closed down $0.31 to settle at US$64.98 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down $0.03 to US$67.01.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street investors closely monitoring trade discussions between the US and China drove stocks higher as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said negotiations went really, really well.
Treasuries and the dollar saw small moves ahead of a key inflation report.
The S&P 500 finished less than 2% away from its record.
Tesla Inc. led gains in megacaps. JM Smucker Co. sank the most in nearly four decades after saying tariffs increasing costs in its coffee business will hurt profit.
Bonds barely budged after a $58 billion sale of three-year notes.
That’s the first in a trio of offerings that will culminate in Thursday’s sale of 30- year debt.
Talks between the US and China extended later into their second day in London, with a Treasury official saying the teams were trying to iron out technical details.
Asked if negotiations would conclude Tuesday, Lutnick said “if they need be, we’ll be here tomorrow, but I hope they end this evening.”
“Any materially positive or negative trade talk headlines out of London where US and Chinese negotiations remain underway could meaningfully move markets today before focus turns to tomorrow’s critical May CPI release,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
Data Wednesday is expected to show US consumers probably saw slightly faster inflation in May, notably for merchandise, as companies gradually pass along higher import duties.
Prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in May, the most in four months.
The so-called core inflation, which is regarded as a better indicator of underlying inflation, is seen accelerating for the first time this year — to 2.9% — on an annual basis, based on the median projection.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed 42% of investors believe that the market reaction to the consumer price index will be “risk-on”, 33% said “mixed” and 25% “risk-off”.
This is the first time the reaction has favored risk-on since August 2024, 22V said.
“The combination of the May inflation figures and upcoming Treasury supply will provide investors tradable events and add to the market’s collective understanding of the early fallout from the trade war as well as demand for US debt in the current environment,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Yields on long-term global debt have soared in recent weeks as concern over spiraling debt and deficits led some investors to shun the securities and prompted others to demand a higher premium for the risk of lending to governments.
Investors betting that yields on long-dated Treasuries will keep rising faster than those on shorter notes risk getting burned, according to BNP Paribas SA’s Guneet Dhingra.
He said 30-year bonds already price in the worsening fiscal picture and could rebound if there’s strong demand for an auction or deficit fears ease.
As for US stocks, the rally is about as good as it’s going to get this year given tariff-related uncertainty, according to Anthi Tsouvali at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Her team expects the S&P 500 to end the year around 6,000 – not far from where the gauge is currently trading.
Meantime, analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
While stocks have roared back from their tariff-fueled April slide, big money managers remain remarkably underweight: Their overall equity positioning has been lower only 23% of the time since 2010, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Bank of America Corp. clients were net sellers of US equities last week, with outflows led by institutional investors as hedge funds and retails purchased shares, strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said Tuesday in a note to clients.
“Our S&P 500 Index valuation work suggests a historical premium for domestically oriented vs. foreign-exposed stocks, indicating that tariffs/de-globalization are generally priced in (but the tax bill not so much),” Carey Hall wrote.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. executives including Elon Musk promoted a video of one of its vehicles driving in Austin with nobody behind the wheel, hinting that it’s close to launching its robotaxi service in the Texas capital.
* Mark Zuckerberg, frustrated with Meta Platforms Inc.’s shortfalls in AI, is assembling a team of experts to achieve artificial general intelligence, recruiting from a brain trust of AI researchers and engineers who’ve met with him in recent weeks at his homes in Lake Tahoe and Palo Alto.
* Wells Fargo & Co.’s Federal Reserve-imposed asset cap that restricted its size for more than seven years was “grossly unfair,” said Jamie Dimon, longtime boss of its biggest rival.
* Boeing Co. scored the highest monthly order intake in more than a year, including a huge haul during President Trump’s trip to the Middle East, giving the US planemaker a commercial boost as it heads into the crucial Paris Air Show next week.
* Redburn Atlantic slapped McDonald’s Corp. with its sole sell rating, saying shifting consumer patterns due to weight-loss drugs and inflation are cause for concern.
* Eli Lilly & Co. will only work with telehealth firms that agree to stop selling copycat versions of weight-loss drugs, diminishing the likelihood of a partnership with one most visible players in the industry, Hims & Hers Health Inc.
* Citigroup Inc. is set to put aside hundreds of millions of dollars more than it did last quarter to account for potential losses on loans and credit cards it issues to its clients, a sign of likely worsening consumer health that runs counter to analysts’ expectations.
* Bondholders to EchoStar Corp. are working with law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld as the telecommunications company mulls a potential bankruptcy filing amid a Federal Communications Commission probe, according to people familiar with the matter.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1425
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3502
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.91 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $109,528.73
* Ether rose 7.1% to $2,774.45
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $64.91 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens. -Jimi Hendrix, 1942-1970.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

June 9, 1928: Charles Kingsford Smith completes the world’s first trans-Pacific flight, landing in Australia after departing from the United States.
June 9, 1986: The Rogers Commission released its report on the Challenger disaster, criticizing NASA and rocket-builder Morton Thiokol for management problems leading to the explosion that claimed the lives of seven astronauts.  Go to article.
1898: Hong Kong lease signed from Britain.

Cole Porter, composer, b. 1891.
Donald Duck, cartoon, b. 1934.
Johnny Depp, actor, b. 1963.

World record smashed
Canadian swimmer Summer McIntosh broke the 400m freestyle world record over the weekend, trimming more than a second off the previous mark.

Is it a scam? Yep.
If you ever wanted to learn more about fraud, Alex Falcone has created a useful TikTok channel. In rapid-fire monologues, the comedian discusses the many ways people and companies scam consumers.

Remain on guard at all times
Hackers have tricked employees at companies in Europe and the Americas into installing a modified version of a Salesforce-related app that allows them to steal reams of data and extort those companies.

Using AI to peer into the past
Many of the Dead Sea Scrolls may be older than previously thought, a new analysis shows. 

Bag on the block
The original Hermès Birkin bag will go under the hammer at Sotheby’s in Paris next month. The all-black, leather handbag is the first version of the timeless luxury staple.

Blue-eyed ‘Ice Prince’ toddler was buried with a sword and a piglet 1,350 years ago in Bavaria. Read more.

What’s the difference between a leopard and a jaguar?

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Batroun, Lebanon
A freediver looks at a lionfish, an invasive species in the Mediterranean, while diving near Lebanon
Photograph: Ibrahim Chalhoub/AFP/Getty Images

Glasgow, Scotland
Riders in Glasgow’s East End begin stage four of the women’s 2025 Tour of Britain
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Medellín’s sublime return to nature
Plaza Botero. Designers paid special attention to the composition of the landscape, Noreña Restrepo said: ‘Where there’s vegetation, it’s not just a tree, but rather a combination of different species. So, it’s very pleasant to walk around – yes, because of the lower temperature, but also because the city is much more beautiful’
Photograph: Jaime Saldarriaga/Guardian
Market Closes for June 9^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42761.76	-1.11
		—
S&P 500	6005.88	+5.52
		+0.09%
NASDAQ	19591.24	+61.29
		+0.31%
TSX	26375.80	-53.33
		-0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38088.57	+346.96
		+0.92%
HANG SENG	24181.43	+388.89
		+1.63%
SENSEX	82445.21	+256.22
		+0.31%
FTSE 100*	8832.28	-5.63
		-0.06%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.354	3.340
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.621	3.587
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4738	4.5056
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9397	4.9676

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7299	0.7305
US $	1.3700	1.3689

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5647	0.6391
US $	1.1423	0.8754

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3339.90	3374.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.58	64.58

Market Commentary:
The man who is a bear on the future of the United States will always go broke. -J.P.  Morgan, 1895.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 26,375.80 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.3%.
Lundin Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.8%.
Today, 85 of 217 shares fell, while 129 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.9%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 6, 2025, and 22.9% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month m basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.25t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.86% compared with 6.75% in the previous session and the average of 15.13% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | -44.9964| -1.8| 6/4
Financials | -27.4224| -0.3| 10/15
Industrials | -6.2022| -0.2| 15/13
Consumer Discretionary | -4.4962| -0.5| 7/3
Consumer Staples | -3.8575| -0.4| 3/7
Health Care | -0.2284| -0.4| 1/2
Utilities | 0.9357| 0.1| 6/9
Communication Services | 2.1181| 0.4| 2/3
Real Estate | 2.6297| 0.5| 16/2
Energy | 7.8017| 0.2| 31/10
Materials | 20.3918| 0.6| 32/17
Shopify | -42.8800| -3.3| 18.0| -3.6
Enbridge | -15.2800| -1.6| -33.6| 2.8
TC Energy | -13.2600| -2.6| 180.7| 1.0
Brookfield Renewable Partners | 3.6760| 7.5| 147.6| 7.8
Barrick Mining | 7.7520| 2.4| 102.4| 24.7
Cameco | 27.0500| 10.7| 129.3| 23.9
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell from record territory over the last hour of Monday’s trading session and ended the day back under the 26,400 level, likely on some profit taking and as Rosenberg Research noted both its equity and commodity models declined in May.
In the end the TSX — which posted three record closes last week, two of which were above 26,420 — was down today by 53.3 points at 26,375.84.
The index, buoyed by higher commodity prices today, was near 26,460 mid-afternoon and was still near 26,440 at 3pm ET, ahead of the 4pm ET close.
Most sectors were higher on Monday, with the Battery Metals Index up 1.8% and Base Metals up near 1.2%.
No sector was down by more than 1%.
Of commodities, gold edged higher mid-afternoon on Monday as the dollar eased with the start of trade talks between the United States and China.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $9.90 to US$3,356.50 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to the highest in a month amid hopes the two largest economies can end a trade war that has disrupted the global economy.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $0.71 to settle at US$65.29 per barrel, the highest since April 3, while August Brent crude was last seen up $0.36 to US$66.83.
Rosenberg Research on Monday published its latest ‘Strategizer’ note that looked at Canadian equities and at commodities, among other subject areas.
On equities, Rosenberg Research said after “correctly” turning more constructive on global equities in April, it is in May seeing a reduction in model scores across all geographies it tracks “as valuations become stretched, price action is overbought, and sentiment turns more bullish”.
But “this development is less pronounced in many ex. U.S. markets, with Asia still our model’s preference for risk adjusted returns,” it added.
Rosenberg Research noted its Canadian equity model experienced the largest reduction in scores — declining to 39.8 from 66.8, “flipping” from the highest reading since October 2023 to the lowest since October 2024 in the span of one month.
The research noted that, as with its other international models, the change for Canada does not represent a shift to “sell”/”underweight”. It remains a “hold” instead.
But, the research said, after a “whopping” +22% advance in the TSX to new record highs since Strategizer turned more constructive a year ago, the pace of future gains looks set to slow.
Relative attractiveness on valuations compared to the U.S. (68th percentile in Canada; 94th percentile in the U.S.), continues to make Strategizer more positive on Canadian equities, but the largest six week jump in technicals (“to very overbought status”) acts as a near-term drag on a contrarian basis, it added.
Rosenberg Research said its top sector picks in Canada reshuffled in May but continue to be broadly dominated by defensives/rate-sensitives.
Materials jumped to #1 (over half the sector is gold miners, which “remain grossly undervalued”), Industrials and Financials are tied for #2, followed by Health Care and Communication Services (both tied for #4).
On commodities, Rosenberg Research noted its commodity model declined in May — falling to 59.9 from 68.0, while remaining in the upper-half of a “neutral” range, where it has been for the better part of the past eight months.
It said: “There are few new developments to add to the commentary over this time, with our scores acknowledging the fragile demand backdrop in many commodities.
But with this pessimism seemingly appropriately discounted in light positioning and cheap valuation readings (both contrarian positive), the market backdrop looks susceptible to any “positive surprises” — near-term volatility notwithstanding.”
According to the research, there has been a shift in individual commodity rankings, with energy-related components now dominating the top group (RBOB gasoline #1, heating oil #4, WTI crude #5). Cocoa (#2) and Wheat (#3) round out the top rankings.
For gold specifically, the Rosenberg Research model improved to 30.4 in May from 26.3.
It noted that after flagging the risk of a potential pause and reversal in the near-term gold trade for the last few months, despite a bullish long-term outlook, the yellow metal experienced a -7.5% peak to trough pullback on easing trade tensions.
The research said an improvement in sentiment (65th percentile down to 50th; contrarian positive) drove the increase, though technical and positioning readings remain elevated, and added a dollar reversal would be negative for gold, too.
“Near-term consolidation/reversal risks have dissipated, but not enough to drive a higher model reading.
We remain buyers on any dips however, given the strong secular outlook.”
In the big economic news of the day, Prime Minister Mark Carney said in Toronto Monday morning that Canada will finally meet its NATO defense spending commitment this year as it moves to make itself less dependent on the United States for security help.
Carney said Canada will lift its military spending to hit the NATO target of two per cent of national GDP by directing an additional $9 billion this year, taking the defence budget to near $63 billion annually.
“Canada will achieve NATO’s two per cent target this year, half a decade ahead of schedule,” the prime minister said.
He also plans to quicken the pace on spending again within the next few years. Price: 26375.80, Change: -53.33, Percent Change: -0.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders glued to their screens amid commercial talks between the US and China drove stocks mildly higher, with officials hinting at progress in negotiations that are set to resume Tuesday.
Bonds bounced after Friday’s selloff as inflation expectations eased.
The dollar fell.
The S&P 500 eked out a gain, remaining nearly 2% away from its February peak.
Tesla Inc. jumped about 4.5% as President Donald Trump reiterated the desire to end his spat with Elon Musk, saying he’d retain Starlink internet service at the White House and wished his billionaire backer “very well.”
Apple Inc. slipped over 1% as it didn’t feature any noticeable artificial- intelligence advancements during a developers’ conference.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions between Washington and Beijing were “fruitful” and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited a “good meeting.”
“We are doing well with China.
China’s not easy,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. “I’m only getting good reports.”
Trade talks between the US and China will continue into a second day, according to a US official, as the two sides look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements.
The advisers will meet again Tuesday at 10 a.m. in London, the official said.
“Markets have moved higher on tariff postponement and the perception that they will be more moderate than initially announced,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners.
“We expect markets to remain headline-sensitive, as trade deals take time to negotiate and unsettling tariff news is likely to cause noticeable volatility.”
“While conditions aren’t as bad as feared, this isn’t a moment for complacency,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“We’re within 2% of an all-time high, but absent a clear catalyst, a breakout doesn’t feel imminent this week.”
Wall Street strategists are growing optimistic about US stocks, with forecasters at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. suggesting resilient economic growth would limit any pullback over the summer.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said a sharp improvement in Corporate America’s earnings outlook bodes well for the S&P 500 into the year end.
He reiterated his 12-month price target of 6,500 points.
The gauge closed at 6,005.88 Monday.
A slate of strategists including at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. have raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 in recent days, on bets that the worst shock from the trade war was over.
At Goldman Sachs, David Kostin said recent market action suggests investors are pricing an optimistic growth outlook.
“The potential for market swings continues,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“But in our view, this should not impede investors putting cash to work, especially given our continued expectation for US equity gains over 12 months and that both interest rates and cash returns are set to fall as the year progresses.”
The S&P 500 has round-tripped from selloff to full recovery in under two months, marking the shortest “vol shock” on record, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte.
“Fear, capitulation and offsides positioning have driven the 20% plus rebound in the S&P 500,” said Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“While markets are anticipatory, the current rally still seems to be struggling with a credible narrative.”
With a key inflation read on tap Wednesday as the Federal Reserve enters a blackout period before its June 18 interest- rate decision, money managers are wrestling with what could propel the S&P 500 back to a record after the index soared 20% from its April lows.
Closing above the February record would mark the 25^th correction — decline of 10% to 19.9% — since World War II, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA.
Using history as a guide, the S&P 500 rose an average of 10% over a 127 calendar-day period following the conclusion of all 24 prior corrections since WWII, he said.
“A continued easing of inflation readings and still- favorable employment data should help extend the duration and magnitude of this advance,” Stovall said.
The S&P 500 equity risk premium — the spread between the earnings yield on stocks and the yield on the 10-year Treasury — is negative, below its long-term average, and likely still too low to support an expectation for strong forward returns, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.
Despite popular notions, a negative or low risk premium isn’t necessarily a predictor of poor forward returns, they said.
It was negative for two long stretches in the post-WWII era — from October 1968 to October 1973 and from September 1980 to June 2002.
During the first stretch, stocks gained 1.1% annually, but they surged an annualized 10% in the latter.
The 1980-2002 run coincided with a negative 52-week correlation between stock prices and bond yields, suggesting inflation trends may be key to the efficacy of the indicator, according to BI.
However, that relationship flipped back to positive in April.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. unveiled a new operating system interface called Liquid Glass at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference, an event that focused heavily on aesthetics and design elements rather than software breakthroughs.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. is splitting itself in half, unshackling its fast-growing streaming business from the struggling legacy media channels and setting up two independent companies that could pursue deals on their own.
* Qualcomm Inc. has agreed to buy London-listed semiconductor company Alpha wave IP Group Plc for about $2.4 billion in cash to expand its technology for artificial intelligence.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to make a multibillion-dollar investment into artificial intelligence startup Scale AI, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Sunnova Energy International Inc., one of the largest US rooftop solar companies, filed for bankruptcy following struggles with mounting debt and diminishing sales prospects.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1425
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3557
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $108,675.97
* Ether rose 2% to $2,583
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $65.31 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,327.60 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming. -David Bowie, 1947-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office for attending the 2025 Bloomberg Tech Conference in San Francisco. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

June 6, 1848 :  New York Yacht Club holds its first annual regatta; won by the schooner Carnelia
June 6, 1933 : US Employment Service created
June 6, 1944 : The D-Day invasion of Europe took place during World War II as Allied forces stormed the beaches of Normandy, France. Go to article
June 6, 1977 : The “Washington Post” reports the US has developed a neutron bomb

3 ancient Maya cities discovered in Guatemala, 1 with an ‘astronomical complex’ likely used for predicting solstices
Archaeologists have discovered the remains of three Maya cities in the Petén jungle of Guatemala.

Two stunning conjunctions will light up the night sky this month. Here’s how to see Mars and Mercury ‘kiss’ the moon
This month will usher in two separate conjunctions — one between the moon and a rarely-visible Mercury, and another between the moon and Mars.

Hidden layer beneath Italy’s Campi Flegrei caldera may explain why it’s so restless
According to new research, the active volcano that sits west of Naples has a “tuff” layer about two miles beneath the surface that traps volcanic gases deep below the caldera’s floor.

Tomorrow is National Chocolate Ice Cream Day, and all you need is chocolate ice cream. 🍫🍦

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Roe by roe … two deer wander through a poppy field near Cholderton in the Bourne Valley of Wiltshire, UK.
Photograph: Nick Bull/pictureexclusive.com

A Przewalski’s horse runs free in a reserve in Kabak, Kazakhstan, having been transported from Hungary as part of a five-year plan to restore the endangered species to its historic habitat. The animals are the last remaining truly wild horses on the planet
Photograph: Attila Kovács/EPA

A deer peers out from Catherine Chevalier woods, in Chicago, Illinois, US. The forest enclave supports a variety of wildlife despite its position right next to O’Hare International, one of the world’s busiest airports
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 6^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42762.87	+443.13
		+1.05%
S&P 500	6000.36	+61.06
		+1.03%
NASDAQ	19529.95	+231.50
		+1.20%
TSX	26429.13	+86.84
		+0.33%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37741.61	+187.12
		+0.50%
HANG SENG	23792.54	-114.43
		-0.48%
SENSEX	82188.99	+746.95
		+0.92%
FTSE 100*	8837.91	+26.87
		+0.31%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.340	3.255
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.587	3.522
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5056	4.3906
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9676	4.8775

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7305	0.7314
US $	1.3689	1.3672

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5605	0.6408
US $	1.1399	0.8772

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3374.60	3364.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.58	63.37

Market Commentary:
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” — Benjamin Franklin
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.3%, or 86.84 to 26,429.13 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.3%.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. had the largest increase, rising 10.8%.
Today, 122 of 217 shares rose, while 93 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.1%
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.1% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.24t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.75% compared with 6.80% in the previous session and the average of 17.46% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 81.4931| 3.3| 7/3
Financials | 51.3567| 0.6| 18/6
Energy | 21.1366| 0.5| 33/7
Industrials | 8.1388| 0.2| 22/6
Real Estate | 1.9103| 0.4| 13/6
Health Care | 0.0962| 0.2| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.5667| -0.1| 5/5
Communication Services | -1.4246| -0.2| 0/5
Utilities | -3.3991| -0.3| 6/9
Consumer Staples | -7.8468| -0.8| 1/9
Materials | -64.0495| -1.7| 15/35
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Friday and eked out the third record close of the week as market watchers differed in their readings of Canada’s May job numbers released today and year to date, and how they might influence the Bank of Canada’s rate policy.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the session up 86.84 points to 26,429.13, single digits ahead of the prior record close of 26,426,64 hit on June 3.
Most sectors were higher, with the Battery Metals Index, up 2.5%, Info Tech, up 1.9% and Energy, up 1.4%, leading the way.
Telecoms and Utilities were both down less than 0.5%.
On Canada’s labor force survey, Robert Embree, Senior Economist and geopolitical risk analyst at Rosenberg Research, noted it beat expectations in May.
But, he said, when you add up the five months so far this year, “the overall picture is not good”.
Canada’s May employment data showed a rise of 8,800 jobs, beating the consensus estimate for a drop of 10,000 positions.
But given the “massive volatility, month to month”, Embree would advise people not to focus too much on the consensus beat and look, instead, at the trendline.
Embree noted the unemployment rate rose to 7.0%, matching the consensus estimate.
That’s now the highest since September 2021, around 1.3 percentage points above a “neutral” rate of unemployment, and is a “sign of massive and still growing slack in the labor market”.
Embree said all of this means that in 2025 so far, total employment is up just 60,700 positions, the slowest five-month pace since May 2021.
The two-year run-up in the unemployment rate is now 1.8 percentage points, the same as April and up from 1.7 ppts in March, and is “a clear recession indicator”, he added.
Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, in his regular ‘Talking Points’ column said Canada’s jobs data also “flashed signs of trade stress”, with manufacturing payrolls declining another 12,000 in May.
That’s the fourth consecutive drop, bringing cumulative losses to 55,000 or almost 3% of all factory jobs.
Porter noted transportation and warehousing also sustained job losses as U.S. tariffs bite, while other sectors managed to partially offset trade related damage, and employment outside of election related workers rose about 40,000 in May.
However, Porter said, the “steady and sustained” rise in the unemployment rate to 7.0% last month is probably the clearest indication that the economy isn’t keeping up with “still solid” population growth.
He noted the 2.8 percentage point gap between Canada’s jobless rate and the U.S. rate is the widest since early 2001, aside from the wild distortion in March 2020.
“The conclusion,” Porter said, “is that while the Bank of Canada stayed on the sidelines again this week, we believe that as long as the trade uncertainty persists, it’s only a matter of time before it is cutting again.
Labour market slack is building, trade and manufacturing are now facing reality after a pre-tariff burst, and housing activity remained subdued in the major Canadian cities in all-important May.
The Bank wants more time to ensure that inflation remains “contained” before resuming rate cuts, and we suspect that evidence will emerge before too long.
While this week’s seeming thaw in some bilateral relations is mildly encouraging, the reality on the ground is a still-raging trade war, highlighted by the U.S. doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. Talk is cheap, but a trade fight is very costly.”
But elsewhere Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, said unlike the “distorted” readings over January to April that were “artificially depressed by cooked seasonal adjustment factors”, that “wasn’t the case this time”.
Holt cited a chart he said shows the seasonally adjusted factor “wasn’t a deep outlier this time, as May typically is not”.
He added: “Alternative scenarios for job growth at other SA factors would have still mostly generated decent job growth.”
Holt noted the unemployment rate ticked up to 7% because the labour force expanded by 35,000 last month and that exceeded aggregate job growth.
He also noted the rise in the unemployment rate since 2022 has been mostly focused upon excessive numbers of temps.
“I think the Bank of Canada will fade these numbers. Not because they’re bad; they’re actually quite good.
But because their reaction function has signaled a stronger focus upon the next two CPI reports notwithstanding how contradictory its guidance is right now.”
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Friday, on some economic optimism after the United States added more jobs than expected last month, while the Trump Administration will stage trade talks with China next week.
WTI oil for July delivery closed up $1.21 to settle at US$64.58 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen $0.99 to US$66.33.
US
By Rita Nazareth and Andre Janse van Vuuren
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at their highest since February andbond yields rose asjobs data allayed concerns of an imminent economic slowdown.
Equities also gained amid hopes US- China trade tensions are easing, with President Donald Trump saying negotiators will talk Monday.
A 1% advance in the S&P 500 drove the gauge to the 6,000 mark.
All major industries climbed.
Tesla Inc. jumped over 3.5% to lead megacaps higher.
Treasuries dropped across the curve, with two-year yields topping 4%.
Money markets trimmed bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
The dollar rose.
Bitcoin also got a boost.
While US job growth moderated in May and the prior months were revised lower, Friday’s report narrowly exceeded forecasts, bolstering bulls who were primed for disappointment after data this week raised doubts about the buoyancy of American hiring.
“While it may not be firing on all cylinders, it’s far from showing signs of a major breakdown,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Today’s solid labor report buys the Fed more time, but Chair Jerome Powell may have a hard time justifying a restrictive rate policy should inflation continue lower.”
Following Friday’s data, Trump urged the Fed to cut rates by a full percentage point, intensifying his pressure campaign against Powell.
“‘Too Late’ at the Fed is a disaster!” Trump posted Friday on social media, using a derisive nickname for Powell.
“Europe has had 10 rate cuts, we have had none.
Despite him, our Country is doing great. Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!”
Nonfarm payrolls increased 139,000 last month after a combined 95,000 in downward revisions to the prior two months.
The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while wage growth accelerated.
The payrolls figure helped alleviate concerns of a rapid deterioration in labor demand as companies contend with higher costs related to tariffs and prospects of slower economic activity.
“A solid jobs report reinforces the ‘slowly slowing’ economic narrative,” said Adam Hetts at Janus Henderson Investors.
“Today’s news is positive, but ongoing tariff uncertainty means the subsequent hard data releases over the summer will be extremely important for clarity.”
In fact, Fed officials have signaled a wait-and-see approach on rates as they await further insights on the impacts of Trump’s policies on the economy.
“For the Fed, there is little urgency to cut rates,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“Holding on until the trade mist clears will reduce the risk of a policy misstep.
We expect the first rate cut to come in late-2025.”
Interest-rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by September, compared with a probability of about 90% on Thursday.
The amount of easing priced in for the year declined to about 43 basis points, fewer than two quarter-point cuts.
“The Fed should be reluctant to cut rates because the full effects of tariffs haven’t impacted inflation numbers yet and the job market isn’t deteriorating enough to force their hand,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
Under this backdrop, Zaccarelli thinks caution is still warranted because valuations are high, much of the tariff risks haven’t been removed and the economy appears to be slowing.
“While there is still uncertainty over tariffs, the stock market is forward looking and has been pricing in an eventual thawing of trade fears,” said Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management.
“We would not be surprised to see stocks breach and even move above their February peak at some point this summer, albeit with some continued volatility.”
US equities will put the worst of this year’s trade-war turmoil behind them and rally to fresh highs in 2025, according to a survey of Bloomberg subscribers who attended a panel discussion on macro trends.
The S&P 500 will climb to 6,500 by year-end, according to 44% of the 27 responses in a Markets Live Pulse survey.
The index was seen reaching that level by the first half of next year by 26% of participants, with 11% saying it would happen in the second half and the remainder estimating 2027 or later.
Investors are enjoying a much-needed breather following a tumultuous two-month period, with the S&P 500 gaining for the fifth week in seven, noted Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Earnings revisions have stabilized, forward earnings have marginally improved, and corporate resilience is evident in forward guidance, suggesting the path of least resistance is to new highs,” Hackett said.

Corporate Highlights:
* China has approved temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top US automakers, Reuters reported on Friday, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
* Boeing Co. has begun shipping commercial jets to China for the first time since early April, indicating a reopening of trade flows amid the long-simmering tariff war between the US and Asia’s biggest economy.
* Broadcom Inc., a chip supplier to companies like Alphabet Inc. and Apple Inc., fell after the company gave a lackluster revenue forecast for the current quarter, suggesting that the AI spending frenzy isn’t as strong as some investors anticipated.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. sank after a second straight disappointing quarter fueled concerns that rising competition, new tariffs and a shift away from yoga pants are derailing its ambitious growth plans.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. rose for a sixth straight day as investors speculate that the online brokerage could become the latest firm to earn a coveted spot in the S&P 500 Index.
* UBS Group AG said it would examine steps to mitigate the effects of the Swiss government’s proposal for as much as $26 billion in fresh capital requirements, calling the demand “extreme” and vowing to continue its push to dilute the regulations.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1397
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3532
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 144.79 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.8% to $104,315.12
* Ether rose 3.6% to $2,487.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 11 basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $64.63 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,312.90 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” When your work speaks for itself, don’t interrupt.”– Henry J Kaiser

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for two days attending the 2025 Bloomberg Tech Conference in San Francisco, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

June 5, 1661: Isaac Newton was admitted to Trinity College, Cambridge, as a student.
June 5, 1917: 10 million US men begin registering for draft in WW I
June 5, 1968: Sen. Robert F. Kennedy was shot and mortally wounded just after claiming victory in California’s Democratic presidential primary. Gunman Sirhan Bishara Sirhan was immediately arrested. Go to article

World Environment Day…

‘Alien’s language’ problem that stumped mathematicians for decades may finally be close to a solution
The Inter-universal Teichmüller Theory, an infamous proof that has confounded mathematicians for over a decade, has been partially solved.

Ancient DNA reveals mysterious Indigenous group from Colombia that disappeared 2,000 years ago
A new analysis of ancient DNA reveals a previously unknown lineage of hunter-gatherers who lived in what is now Colombia.

An ‘invisible threat’: Swarm of hidden ‘city killer’ asteroids around Venus could one day collide with Earth, simulations show
A new study suggests that unidentified “co-orbital asteroids” around Venus may have the capacity to impact our planet in the future, with potentially devastating consequences. However, there is no immediate threat.

Ginormous planet discovered around tiny red star challenges our understanding of solar systems
Scientists have discovered a giant planet called TOI-6894b, orbiting a star that should be far too small to have formed it. The discovery could further challenge theories of planet formation.

James Webb telescope spots ‘groundbreaking’ molecule in scorching clouds of giant ‘hell planet’
A pair of new studies has revealed that the hellish skies of exoplanet WASP-121b contain silicon monoxide gas, which has never been found in any planetary atmosphere to date.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Paris, France
Visitors look at the artwork Clinamen, an aquatic and musical installation by the artist Céleste Boursier-Mougenot, at the Bourse de Commerce Pinault collection
Photograph: Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters

Colombo, Sri Lanka
A train arrives at a station next to the sea
Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

Fitz Roy, Patagonia
‘Smoking Mountain in all its glory.’
Photograph: Guilheme Perodeau
Market Closes for June 5^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42319.74	-108.00
		-0.25%
S&P 500	5939.30	-31.51
		-0.53%
NASDAQ	19298.45	-162.04
		-0.83%
TSX	26342.29	+13.29
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37554.49	-192.96
		-0.51%
HANG SENG	23906.97	+252.94
		+1.07%
SENSEX	81442.04	+443.79
		+0.55%
FTSE 100*	8811.04	+9.75
		+0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.255	3.235
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.522	3.517
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3906	4.3552
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8775	4.8775

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7313
US $	1.3672	1.3674

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5654	0.6388
US $	1.1449	0.8734

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3364.60	3334.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.37	63.41

Market Commentary:
“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” — Peter Drucker
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 26,342.29 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.3%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 15.5%.
Today, 116 of 217 shares rose, while 94 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.6%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 3, 2025 and 22.7% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 5.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.24t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.80% compared with 7.20% in the previous session and the average of 18.48% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 14.9826| 0.4| 35/15
Financials | 9.6275| 0.1| 15/10
Energy | 8.8657| 0.2| 20/18
Real Estate | 1.8803| 0.4| 14/2
Health Care | 0.0221| 0.0| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.2278| 0.0| 4/6
Communication Services | -2.2078| -0.4| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -3.1848| -0.3| 5/5
Utilities | -3.2250| -0.3| 5/10
Industrials | -6.5655| -0.2| 11/16
Information Technology | -6.6587| -0.3| 3/7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted a small gain on Thursday, following on Wednesday’s dip, but failed to reach the record closing levels of earlier this week amid diverging views on the outlook for interest rates and after Canada posted its largest-ever trade deficit.
The S&P/TSX Venture Exchange closed up 13.29 points to 26,342.29.
Among sectors, Base Metals, up 2.42%, and Energy, up 0.45%, were the biggest gainers on the day, with Health Care and Information Technology down 0.63% and 1.09%, respectively.
Reflecting the diverging views on rates, Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins Capital, today reacted to a speech from a Bank of Canada official by saying data on the economy and inflation will need to be “somewhat weaker-than-previously envisaged” for the central bank to feel comfortable reducing rates further.
But National Bank cited S&P Global Services PMI data released yesterday that showed Canada “dead last in manufacturing and dead last in services” and the bank expects a resumption of the rate cutting cycle in late July.
For its part, Rosenberg Research noted fresh data today showed Canadian exports fell to the lowest since June 2023 in April, confirming the rosy Q1 picture was a mirage.”
It said when Canada’s GDP surprised to the upside last week it had written that it seemed to be driven by an “unusual” increase in exports, suggesting some pre-tariff distortions.
Rosenberg Research expected some reversion in Q2, and said here it is: The consensus was for a merchandise trade deficit of C$1.5 billion, and it came in at C$7.1 billion as exports fell rapidly.
This would imply Q2 GDP growth sharply below the 2.2% pace in Q1, Rosenberg added.
Rosenberg Research said its remains “skeptical” on the Canadian dollar, especially in the context of yesterday’s BoC decision to pause on rates, “which only builds up pressure for fast cuts later this year.”
A day after the BoC decided to keep the policy interest rate at 2.75%, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki delivered a speech entitled ‘Reaching out for a clearer view of the economy’ before the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto.
In justifying the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady yesterday, Desjardins noted Kozicki said the Governing Council relied heavily on private consultations with firms and unpublished survey data.
Kozicki said “firms believed that their worst-case tariff scenarios were much less likely to materialize than they reported earlier this year.”
However, avoiding the worst-case scenario hardly seems like a reason to hold rates steady at the current neutral setting given that the economy is still being hammered by tariffs, Mendes wrote.
Mendes noted that despite consumers receiving a major discount on their monthly expenses from the elimination of the carbon tax, preliminary data released alongside the speech suggest that consumers still see inflation averaging about 4% over the coming year.
He cited Kozicki as saying “firms spoke about their costs increasing, which likely means they will need to raise prices at some point.”
The surveys, Mendes said, do not preclude a rate cut in July, but do raise the bar for upcoming hard data releases.
“Assuming the final readings for Q2 inflation expectations remain elevated, data on the economy and inflation will need to be somewhat weaker-than-previously envisaged for the Bank of Canada to feel comfortable reducing rates further,” he added.
The Kozicki comments came as National Bank said tariff uncertainty is not only dragging down Canadian factories.
It noted S&P Global’s Services PMI for the month of May, in which the Canadian reading was the weakest of all 14 countries whose services sector is covered by S&P Global.
“That’s dead last in manufacturing and dead last in services, leaving Canada as clear outlier in this sample of key peers.”
National Bank added: “Complicating matters, the report on Canada also flags an acceleration in input price inflation and the biggest rise in output prices in a year.
That won’t come as any comfort to the Bank of Canada, who left its policy rate on hold yesterday in light of tariff-related inflation risks.
But while there may be cost pressures that stem from the disrupted trade environment, there are also disinflationary pressures associated with the economic slack that has accumulated and will continue to accumulate this year.
On balance, we’re less concerned about near-term inflation than we are for the health of the economy.
As more data accrues over the next eight weeks, we expect the Bank of Canada to adopt a similar view allowing for a resumption of the rate cutting cycle in late July.”
Of commodities, gold traded lower Thursday on Thursday as the dollar weakened after the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April with imports plunging due to the Trump Administration imposing widespread tariffs on the country’s trading partners.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down U$24.40 to US$3,374.80 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher on expectations demand is strengthening as the U.S. driving season takes hold while wildfires in northern Alberta cut into oil-sands supply.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $0.52 to settle at US$63.37 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen up $0.47 to US$65.33.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell alongside Treasuries as online squabbling between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk knocked down Tesla Inc., weighing heavily on the megacap tech space.
While equities closed away from session lows, the Nasdaq 100 dropped almost 1%.
Tesla sank 14% as Trump proposed ending Musk’s government contracts and subsidies after his onetime adviser attacked the Republican tax-policy bill.
Earlier gains in equities were driven by hopes tensions between the US and China would ease as Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to further trade talks.
On the eve of the all-important jobs data, an unexpected jump in unemployment claims added to speculation the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice this year.
Economists see payrolls rising by 125,000 after job growth in March and April exceeded projections.
That would leave the average over the past three months tracking a still-solid 162,000.
The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Broadcom Inc., a chip supplier to companies like Alphabet Inc.and Apple Inc., gave a lackluster revenue forecast for the current quarter, suggesting that the AI spending frenzy isn’t as strong as some investors anticipated.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. trimmed its profit outlook for the full year and projected lower-than-expected sales for the current quarter.
* Circle Internet Group Inc. surged after the company and some of its shareholders raised nearly $1.1 billion in an initial public offering that was upsized twice amid strong demand.
* Brown-Forman Corp., owner of the Jack Daniel’s brand, tumbled on results that trailed expectations while projecting a sales decline for the current fiscal year.
* Kimberly-Clark Corp. has agreed to sell a majority stake in its global Kleenex and tissue businesses outside of North America to a newly-formed venture with Brazilian pulp supplier Suzano SA.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
* Tesla fell 14%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1436
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3572
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 143.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $101,936.68
* Ether fell 3% to $2,527.19
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $63.36 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,356.77 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“A painting is not a picture of an experience, but is the experience.” — Mark Rothko

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 4, 1783: The Montgolfier brothers demonstrate the first hot air balloon, with a 10-minute flight that secures their place in aviation history.
June 4, 1942: Battle Of Midway
June 4, 1989: Tiananmen Square Massacre, China: On June 4, 1989, Chinese army troops stormed Tiananmen Square in Beijing to crush the pro-democracy movement; hundreds – possibly thousands – of people died. Go to article

Socrates, philosopher, b.470 BC.
Dr. Ruth Westheimer, b.1928.
Angelina Jolie, actress, b.1975.

Braided gold Viking arm-ring discovered by amateur metal detectorist on Isle of Man
Around 1,000 years ago, this Viking Age arm-ring from the Isle of Man was likely used not only to display its owner’s wealth but also to serve as currency in financial transactions. Read More.

NASA spacecraft finds solar ‘cannonballs’ may have stripped Mars of its water — proving decades-old theory
After nearly a decade in orbit, NASA’s MAVEN spacecraft has, for the first time, directly observed the process that scientists had long suspected was responsible for stripping Mars
of its atmosphere. Read More.

Weed may be bad for your heart, whether you smoke or consume edibles
Smoking cannabis and consuming THC edibles are both linked to impaired blood vessel dilation, possibly through separate mechanisms, a study finds. Read More.

Australian ‘trash parrots’ have now developed a local ‘drinking tradition’
Wild cockatoos in Western Sydney have learned to drink from water fountains — choosing to drink from them even if they have to queue. Read More.

Galactic impact update
For more than 100 years, a collision between the Milky Way galaxy and its largest neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, was predicted to occur in about 4.5 billion years. New calculations tell a different story.

Copycat cookies?
Snack brand giant Mondelēz is suing Aldi, claiming the grocery chain’s store-brand cookies and crackers are packaged in a way that is “likely to deceive and confuse” customers.

4,000: That’s an estimate of how many fatal unintentional drownings happen every year in the US — an average of 11 drowning deaths per day, the CDC reports.  

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Diamond Beach Emerald Sky by Brent Martin
With a clear night forecast and the Milky Way core returning for 2025, I set out to explore the Great Ocean Road. After a few setbacks – such as getting the car stuck on a sandy track – I almost gave up. However, I pushed on and found a great spot above the beach to capture the scene. The night was full of colour, with comet C/2024 G3 Atlas and a pink aurora in the early hours, followed by the Milky Way rising amid intense green airglow. Despite the challenges, the reward of this stunning image and the memory of the view made it all worthwhile
Photograph: Brent Martin/Milky Way photographer of the year

One in a Billion by Don Pettit
I float in the cupola, looking out the seven windows composing this faceted transparent jewel. While my mind is submerged in contemplation, my eyes gorge on the dim reflections from a night-time Earth. There are more than 8 billion people who call this planet home. There are seven of us who can say the same for the space station. What a privilege it is to be here. I used an orbital star tracker to take out the star streak motion from orbit
Photograph: Don Pettit/Milky Way photographer of the year

Somerset, UK
We visited the town of Wells on our holiday trip through the UK. We particularly liked Vicars Close, which is reportedly the oldest residential street in Europe.’
Photograph: Hans J Förster
Market Closes for June 4^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42427.74	-91.90
		-0.22%
S&P 500	5970.81	+0.44
		+0.01%
NASDAQ	19460.49	+61.53
		+0.32%
TSX	26329.00	-97.64
		-0.37%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37747.45	+300.64
		+0.80%
HANG SENG	23654.03	+141.54
		+0.60%
SENSEX	80998.25	+260.74
		+0.32%
FTSE 100*	8801.29	+14.27
		+0.16%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.235	3.273
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.517	3.548
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3552	4.4537
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8775	4.9810

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7313	0.7288
US $	1.3674	1.3721

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5615	0.6404
US $	1.1420	0.8756

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3334.75	3370.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.41	63.41

Market Commentary:
Never leave to chance what you can achieve through calculation. –Cardinal Richelieu, 1585-1642.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 26,329.00 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%.
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. had the largest drop, falling 4.9%.
Today, 123 of 217 shares fell, while 92 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.7%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 3, 2025 and 22.7% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 5.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.25t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.20% compared with 7.05% in the previous session and the average of 19.01% over the past month
Index Points
Energy | -50.7901| -1.2| 8/33
Financials | -23.6311| -0.3| 13/12
Information Technology | -16.4334| -0.7| 7/3
Utilities | -10.3196| -1.0| 3/11
Consumer Staples | -8.8562| -0.9| 3/7
Industrials | -7.5663| -0.2| 10/18
Consumer Discretionary | -0.9302| -0.1| 5/5
Communication Services | -0.7245| -0.1| 3/2
Real Estate | -0.3882| -0.1| 5/14
Health Care | -0.0885| -0.1| 3/1
Materials | 22.0811| 0.6| 32/17
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange was down Wednesday after two record closes, as Rosenberg Research said the pace and magnitude of future gains on Canada’s largest stock market “may be slower and smaller” while Bank of Canada warned the economy is “expected to be considerably weaker” in the second quarter.
Not helped by mixed commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was down 97.64 points to 26,329.0.
Among sectors, Energy and Utilities were down 1.78% and 1.00%, respectively.
Base Metals, up 1.13%, and Health Care, up 0.69%, are the biggest gainers.
Rosenberg Research revisited its earlier call of outperformance on the TSX and where the trade goes from here.
According to Market Strategist Marius Jongstra a “victory lap is in order” following a plus-12 percentage point outperformance of the TSX relative to the S&P 500 over the past year, and plus-5 ppts for the year to date.
“A trend we first noticed and began publishing about last year.”
Jonstra said while the research team is encouraged by these results, it is revisiting the outlook for this trade.
He added: “The good news is that the prior trend of relative strength has the conditions in place to continue — relative valuation support, better risk premia, looser liquidity conditions, and more attractive dividend yields are some examples.
The not so good news is that markets have awoken to this trend, meaning the pace and magnitude of future gains may be slower and smaller.”
In conclusion, Jongstra said while the team at Rosenberg Research still sees room for the up trend to continue, it added as more investors awaken to the extreme divergence that opened up between the two indices, pushing the TSX to new all-time highs, the pace of gains may slow down going forward.
Meanwhile, veteran economist David Rosenberg published separate research of his own on the big economic story of the day; Governor Tiff Macklem announcing the BoC decided to hold its key benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75%.
In a note entitled ‘Is Tiff Macklem a Deer in the Headlights?’ Rosenberg said “a dovish hold” by the BoC was no surprise, but added the central bank’s work is not done.
Rosenberg said the BoC had looked through the recent uptick in GDP growth to “the pull forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat.”
Looking ahead instead of back, Rosenberg noted the BoC added that, “The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued.”
Rosenberg said a return to Fed easing by the end of the summer will only help make the BoC’s work easier, and there is no doubt in his mind that the next moves in rates will be lower.
“The only issue is the magnitude, and that should help act as a gravitational downward pull across the yield curve, notwithstanding some of the impediments that are already well-known and priced in,” he added.
Meanwhile, National Bank said its July cut call will be first put to the test on Friday, when the May Labour Force Survey will be released.
It expects net job losses and a higher unemployment rate to push markets toward pricing a July cut, after which the May CPI report will come into focus.
Further out the horizon, National Bank noted markets have consistently priced between 25 and 50 basis points of rate relief this year but it still sees a path to more forceful easing in the second half of 2025.
It highlights earlier comments from the Governor when he explained they are “prepared to act decisively if incoming information points clearly in one direction”.
To National Bank, the data is already starting to point in one direction; towards growing economic slack, and that trend is set to continue.
It expects the overnight target will end the year at 2%, which leaves Canadian bonds attractively priced, both outright and versus U.S. treasuries.
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, noted Macklem emphasized that the BoC was “proceeding carefully” and would remain less forward-looking than usual.
While he made clear it shouldn’t be viewed as forward guidance, Macklem did indicate that members are leaning towards a potential cut ahead, although this was couched in data dependence.
In Macquarie’s view, most critical to monitor ahead will be the CPI reports, the Labour Force Survey, and Q2 survey data, set for release on July 21.
Looking ahead, Macquarie continues to project three rate cuts of 25 bps ahead.
It suspects these may occur intermittently through year-end with the next cut likely in July.
Of commodities, gold rose mid-afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar fell after a report showed U.S. private-sector hiring plunged last month. Gold for August delivery was last seen up $21.90 to US$3,399.00 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling for the first time in three sessions as an outsized rise in U.S. gasoline stocks offset lower supply from Canadian oil-sands projects threatened by wildfires.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down $0.56 to settle at US$62.85 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down $0.84 to US$64.79.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasuries rallied after weaker-than- expected economic data reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year to prevent an economic recession.
A contraction in US service providers and a deceleration in hiring drove bond yields down across the curve.
Swap traders are pricing in two Fed reductions in October and December.
The possibility of a move in September increased to over 90%.
The dollar slipped.
The S&P 500 was little changed, with defensive industries like health care and communications outperforming the market.
US activity fell slightly in recent weeks, indicating tariffs and elevated uncertainty are rippling across the economy, according to the Fed’s Beige Book.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services dropped a touch below the 50 level that separates expansion and contraction.
Private payrolls rose the least in two years.
“Markets are likely to view this through the lens of disappointment on the real growth side,” said Florian Ielpo at
Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“While this represents good news for the US economy in terms of potential rate relief, the improvement already priced into equities and credit spreads could be challenged by this series of weaker numbers.”
The jobs report due Friday is expected to show that growth in nonfarm payrolls slowed and the unemployment rate remained steady.

Corporate Highlights:
* Dollar Tree Inc. warned investors that its second-quarter profit could be down as much as 50% from a year ago as it deals with tariff-related costs.
* Wells Fargo & Co. finally escaped a Federal Reserve asset cap that has restricted its size for more than seven years, unleashing the firm from the unprecedented punishment in a major win for Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf. The bank’s shares surged.
* CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. said US officials have asked for information related to the accounting of deals it’s made with some customers and said the cybersecurity firm is cooperating with the inquiry.
* Circle Internet Group Inc.’s initial public offering is likely to price above the marketed range, after fielding orders for more than 25 times the number of shares available in the upsized deal, according to people familiar with the matter.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1412
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3546
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 142.89 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $104,983.01
* Ether rose 0.3% to $2,624.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.36%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $62.78 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,373.67 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Whenever God means to make you great, He always breaks you in pieces first. –Charles Spurgeon, 1834-1892.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

June 3, 1492: Martin Behaim presents the world’s first globe, named Erdapfel or Earth Apple.  It is kept at the Germanisches Natioalmuseum in Nuremberg, Germany.
June 3, 1965: Astronaut Edward White became the first American to walk in space, during the flight of Gemini 4. Go to article.

Jefferson Davis, confederate leader, b.1808.
Allen Ginsburg, writer, b.1926.
Curtis Mayfield, soul musician, b.1942.

Blue-eyed ‘Ice Prince’ toddler was buried with a sword and a piglet 1,350 years ago in Bavaria
The “Ice Prince” burial sheds light on a toddler from a wealthy family who lived around 1,350 years ago in Bavaria, Germany. Read More.

‘It’s like trying to grow a tree in an oven’: Gold mining is sucking the Amazon rainforest dry
Gold mining in the Amazon removes so much water from the ground that it’s too hot and dry for seedlings to survive. Read More.

WATCH Mount Etna erupt: Europe’s largest volcano blows as tourists scramble to safety
Italy’s Mount Etna has erupted in spectacular fashion, sending ash, gas, and other volcanic material high into the sky above Sicily. Watch footage of the eruption. Read More.

Replika AI chatbot is sexually harassing users, including minors, new study claims
User reviews of Replika, a popular AI companion, report they had been victims of sexual harassment. And some of those users claim to be minors, according to a new study. Read More.

Maja Stark wins first major title
The 25-year-old Swedish golfer took home the trophy at the 80th US Women’s Open on Sunday in Wisconsin.

What a grand slam debut!
French wild card Lois Boissan, who was ranked No. 361 in the world, produced the biggest shock of the French Open so far when she ousted American world No. 3 Jessica Pegula in a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 victory on Monday.
Magnus Carlsen’s outburst
The usually calm five-time world champion slammed his fist on the table in frustration after losing to defending classical chess world champion Gukesh Dommaraju at the 2025 Norway Chess tournament on Sunday.
Megawatt couple marries
Actress Hailee Steinfeld (“Sinners,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”) wed Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen over the weekend in California. The pair have been romantically linked since 2023.

Rampaging raccoons
A family of furry intruders recently broke into an Airbus factory near Montreal, Canada. Damage included urine and chewed wires.

“Specific to libraries, I will simply say that many people in this country, including me, were raised in libraries, and they’re not just buildings with shelves, they are sanctuaries of possibility.”  — Actress Sarah Jessica Parker on the Trump administration’s decision to cut funding to libraries

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Iceland
‘A remote village church.’
Photograph: Bob Blackburn

Qingdao, China
Wetland covered with Suaeda salsa, a plant also known as seepweed or sea-blite
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Banff National Park, Canada
‘We hiked up to the Rockpile to view the sun rising over the Valley of the Ten Peaks. Words fail to capture the peace, calm and tranquility of the perfect reflection. It was a soul-soothing and truly spiritual experience.’
Photograph: Saradha Iyer
Market Closes for June 3^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42519.64	+214.16
		+0.51%
S&P 500	5970.37	+34.43
		+0.58%
NASDAQ	19398.96	+156.35
		+0.81%
TSX	26426.64	+37.68
		+0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37446.81	-23.86
		-0.06%
HANG SENG	23512.49	+354.52
		+1.53%
SENSEX	80737.51	-636.24
		-0.78%
FTSE 100*	8787.02	+12.76
		+0.15%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.273	3.226
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.548	3.502
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4537	4.4399
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9810	4.9655

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7288	0.7293
US $	1.3721	1.3711

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5603	0.6409
US $	1.1372	0.8793

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3370.85	3277.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.41	60.79

Market Commentary:
It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. -Charlie Munger, 1924-2023.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.1%, or 37.68 to 26,426.64 in Toronto.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. had the largest increase, rising 16.0%.
Today, 140 of 217 shares rose, while 74 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.1%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.1% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 5.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.25t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.05% compared with 7.57% in the previous session and the average of 19.57% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 46.1242| 1.1| 38/2
Financials | 17.9583| 0.2| 14/11
Utilities | 11.0858| 1.1| 10/5
Consumer Discretionary | 1.6830| 0.2| 5/5
Health Care | 0.6416| 1.0| 3/1
Real Estate | 0.2569| 0.1| 11/7
Industrials | -0.8196| 0.0| 17/11
Communication Services | -4.0246| -0.7| 0/5
Materials | -10.2810| -0.3| 33/16
Consumer Staples | -11.8987| -1.1| 3/7
Information Technology | -13.0260| -0.5| 6/4
Canadian Natural Resources | 13.5600| 2.2| 146.2| -2.8
TD Bank | 13.0200| 1.1| -21.9| 25.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 7.9900| 1.1| -32.2| 8.3
WSP Global | -7.6710| -3.0| 100.8| 8.5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -7.9730| -1.3| -24.1| 49.4
Shopify | -15.2600| -1.2| -44.6| -5.8
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted a fresh record close for a second-straight day Tuesday, even as White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an executive order today to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, with effect from tomorrow.
“The U.S. president will be signing that executive order today, and steel and aluminum tariffs will be going to 50%, yes,” she said, Canada’s CTV News reported shortly before the close of trade, while noting Canada is the largest steel and aluminum supplier to the United States.
Today, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up a modest 37.68 points to 26,426.64, with most sectors higher led by Energy, up 1.45%, and Utilities, up 1.1%.
While investors have been bidding up Canadian stocks in recent weeks, one Macquarie strategist noted traders continue to struggle with understanding what direction the U.S. trade relationships with the rest of world is going in.
While he was referring more to U.S. traders, his sentiments apply to traders across North America.
Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie, said traders are struggling because tariffs and the evolving nature of U.S. trade relations with the rest of the world are seen as the main pivot that determines what will happen to global growth and inflation trends in the rest of 2025.
Indeed, Wizman added, the OECD’s new global GDP growth projection for 2025 was downgraded, to 2.9% from 3.1%, precisely because of the tariff outlook.
Reflecting his words and thoughts, CTV News cited the United Steelworkers national director for Canada, Marty Warren, as saying the tariffs on steel and aluminum will have a devastating impact on Canadian workers and companies.
“We are on the verge of collapse in some places,” Warren told CTV.
“We cannot access the American market at 50% tariffs,” Warren said, adding that nearly 65% of Canadian steel goes to the U.S. market.
CTV News noted Canada exported $15.9 billion worth of aluminum to the United States, according to the United Steelworkers (USW) union.
While most market watchers expect the Bank of Canada to hold the key benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75% tomorrow, there are likely some who see the confirmation of the tariff on steel and aluminum as a good reason for the central bank to move on rates lower on Wednesday and pre-empt any possibility of a devastating fall out for an economy already under pressure due to tariff uncertainty around the auto sector.
Of commodities, gold prices eased late afternoon on Tuesday as the dollar rose despite a forecast for weakening U.S. growth amid the country’s global tariff battles.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $20.10 to US$3,377.10 per ounce, after rising 1.6% a day earlier.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a gain, climbing for a second day on tightening supply as wildfires cut into supply from Alberta’s oil sands and talks to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions and lift sanctions on its exports falter, even as OPEC+ adds new production to the market.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $0.89 to settle at US$63.41 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen up $1.02 to US$65.65.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher as data showed the US labor market is holding up despite concerns about risks stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
Bonds fell.
The dollar rose.
Just days ahead of the US payrolls report, an unexpected increase in job openings buoyed sentiment.
Tech giants led the S&P 500’s bounce, with Nvidia Corp. up almost 3%.
Energy shares joined a rally in oil.
Earlier equity losses were driven by a cut in OECD’s growth forecasts as the institution said combative trade policies have tipped the world economy into a downturn.
The rise in job openings reinforced the Federal Reserve’s assertion that the labor market is in a good place.
While some economists fear a more notable weakening in coming months under the weight of tariffs, that hasn’t shown up in the data yet, supporting officials’ posture to keep rates steady.
“The higher-than-expected job openings number this morning is a good sign for the economy, as many were worried that the tariff uncertainty was weighing too heavily on businesses,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
The Office of the US Trade Representative has sent letters to trading partners to remind them of an upcoming deadline in negotiations, according to the White House.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he’s “very optimistic” about prospects for a deal between the US and India.

Corporate Highlights:
* Dollar General Corp. surged after increasing its annual guidance, helped by luring more higher-income shoppers looking for deals. The discount chain also said it expects to mitigate a significant amount of the tariffs currently in place.
* Broadcom Inc. began shipping a new version of its data center switch chips that can boost the efficiency of AI accelerators, aiming to take a bigger role in the booming market for artificial-intelligence computing.
* Surging demand for power to run artificial intelligence just prompted Meta Platforms Inc. to enter a 20-year contract with the biggest US nuclear operator, penning a deal that’s likely to be priced at a cheaper rate than a similar agreement rival Microsoft Corp. entered last year.
* Marriott International Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tony Capuano said consumers are still signing up for travel, but just waiting longer to book hotel rooms.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. said a security incident that caused it to shut down its e-commerce site may hurt results for the current quarter.
* Signet Jewelers Ltd. raised its profit outlook for the full year and lifted the low end of its sales guidance, signaling confidence in the new chief executive’s overhaul strategy and consumers’ willingness to spend despite economic turbulence.
* Hims & Hers Health Inc. said it’s buying privately held telehealth company Zava as it looks to expand its footprint in Europe.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1369
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3516
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 144.07 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $106,307.23
* Ether rose 3.4% to $2,626.12
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $63.33 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,352.85 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Fifty years from now, you’ll want to be able to look in the mirror and know that you did what you thought was right in every part of your life.  At the end of the day, our integrity is all we have.  Guard it carefully. –Jay Powell, Princeton University Commencement speech to 2025 graduating class.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

June 2, 1692: Salem witch trials began.
June 2, 1946: Italy becomes a parliamentary republic after a  referendum, with massive turnout and women voting for the first time.
June 2, 1953: Coronation of Queen Elizabeth.
June 2, 1981: The Japanese video arcade game “Donkey Kong” made its U.S. debut. Go to article.

Marquis de Sade, writer, b. 1740
Thomas Hardy, writer, b.1840.

Physicists capture ‘second sound’ for the first time — after nearly 100 years of searching
First theorized in 1938, heat’s wave-like flow through superfluids, known as “second sound”, has proven difficult to directly observe. Now, a new technique has finally done it, and could be used to study neutron stars and high-temperature superconductors. Read More.

‘I did a bit of a dance’: Detectorist finds gold ‘mourning ring’ engraved with skull and date in UK field
A British metal detectorist discovered a gold band with an engraved date-of-death in Norfolk. Read More.

The closer a volcano is to erupting, the greener the trees around it look from space
Scientists have found a way to monitor volcanic carbon dioxide levels — one of the first signs a volcano might be about to blow — that doesn’t involve trekking up a mountain. Read More.

What goes up must come down: How megaconstellations like SpaceX’s Starlink network pose a grave safety threat to us on Earth
OPINION | Thousands of satellites with incredibly short lifetimes are being sent up into low Earth orbit. When they fall back down they’re fireballs of pollution —
and what doesn’t burn up hits the ground. Read More.

Infamous ‘neutron lifetime puzzle’ may finally have a solution — but it involves invisible atoms
A type of hydrogen that doesn’t interact with light could explain how long neutrons live and reveal the identity of the universe’s dark matter, according to a new theory. Read More.

MLB stars make history
During a rematch of last season’s World Series, New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge and Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani homered at their respective first at bats of the game, becoming the first reigning MVPs to hit a home run in the opening inning of the same game.

Beekeepers to the rescue!
A commercial truck overturned last week in northwestern Washington state, causing about 250 million honeybees to escape. But a contingent of local beekeepers showed up on the scene to help recover and reset the hives.

Ready to return to the Upside-Down?
The official release dates for season 5 of “Stranger Things” have been announced. Alas, we’ll still have to wait a few more months to see if Eleven and her friends triumph over evil.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Winter Fairy Tale by Uroš Fink
Undoubtedly my wildest location this winter: Austria’s Dobratsch mountain. After a two-hour hike through the snow with a 22kg backpack and sled, the stunning views kept me energised. I spent the evening exploring compositions, and this is my favourite: a panorama of the winter Milky Way with reddish nebulae, stretching above Dobratsch. The sky was magnificent, with Jupiter and Mars shining brightly. In the foreground is the cabin, where I spent three freezing hours, waiting for the perfect shot of the Milky Way’s core
Photograph: Uroš Fink/Milky Way photographer of the year

Blossom by Ethan Su
After three years of waiting, the Yushan alpine rhododendrons are finally in bloom once again on Taiwan’s 3,000-metre-high Hehuan mountain. On this special night, distant clouds helped block city light pollution, revealing an exceptionally clear view of the Milky Way. A solar flare from active region AR3664 reached Earth that evening, intensifying the airglow and adding an otherworldly touch to the sky. Together, these rare natural events created a breathtaking scene – vivid blooms glowing softly beneath a star-filled sky
Photograph: Ethan Su/Milky Way photographer of the year

Wisconsin, US
Ash plumes from Canadian wildfires that have been drifting across the Upper Midwest render an evening sunset in hues of orange behind Lac La Belle in Oconomowoc
Photograph: John Hart, Wisconsin State Journal/AP
Market Closes for June 2^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42305.48	+35.41
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5935.94	+24.25
		+0.41%
NASDAQ	19242.61	+128.84
		+0.67%
TSX	26388.96	+213.91
		+0.82%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37470.67	-494.43
		-1.30%
HANG SENG	23157.97	-131.80
		-0.57%
SENSEX	81373.75	-77.26
		-0.09%
FTSE 100*	8774.26	+1.88
		+0.02%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.226	3.200
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.502	3.477
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4399	4.4004
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9655	4.9305

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7293	0.7275
US $	1.3711	1.3745

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5703	0.6368
US $	1.1453	0.8731

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3277.55	3312.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.52	60.79

Market Commentary:
Mechanical forecasting will never take the place of intelligent judgement. –Humphrey Neill, 1891-1977.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8% at 26,388.96 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1% on May 2 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 6 of 11 sectors gained; 132 of 217 shares rose, while 85 fell.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.3%.
Fortuna Mining Corp. had the largest increase, rising 11.8%.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.9%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 22.9% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.22t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.57% compared with 8.08% in the previous session and the average of 20.68% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 153.4592| 4.4| 42/8
Energy | 51.8177| 1.2| 33/8
Consumer Staples | 18.2693| 1.8| 9/1
Communication Services | 6.0193| 1.0| 3/2
Consumer Discretionary | 3.1016| 0.4| 5/5
Financials | 2.4037| 0.0| 12/13
Real Estate | -0.7121| -0.1| 5/14
Health Care | -1.2287| -1.9| 0/4
Utilities | -2.2201| -0.2| 8/7
Industrials | -8.2847| -0.3| 10/18
Information Technology | -8.7150| -0.3| 5/5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 30.1600| 5.3| -0.1| 51.4
Wheaton Precious Metals | 21.9900| 5.8| -11.2| 55.5
Barrick Mining | 18.4100| 5.8| -5.5| 24.9
Power of Canada | -4.1380| -2.1| 95.7| 16.0
Shopify | -6.0540| -0.5| -48.2| -4.6
Fairfax Financial | -6.4380| -1.9| 29.5| 14.6
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at another record high on Monday following two losing sessions as Canadian investors not only got back into the buying habit again with commodities prices surging as the U.S. dollar weakened following fresh trade threats from President Trump, while economists see less need for another cut from Wednesday’s Bank of Canada interest-rate decision.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 213.91 points to 26,388.96, topping the prior record set on Wednesday of 26,283.45.
Among sectors, The biggest gainers were Energy and Base Metals, up 1.86% and 1.19%, respectively, followed by Telecoms, up 0.97%.
Health Care, down 2.4%, and Industrials, down 0.25%, were the biggest decliners.
Despite the continuing threat of a costly trade war with the United States, Canada’s largest trading partner, The Canadian Press is reporting that the Canadian federal government collected an extra $617 million in import duties in March compared to a year earlier as counter-tariffs against U.S. trade restrictions came into effect.
Separately, The Canadian Press cited Industry Minister Melanie Joly as saying Sunday the federal government is committed to using Canadian steel and aluminum in national infrastructure and defense projects after U.S. President Donald Trump threaten on the weekend said he’ll double the tariff on U.S. imports of both metals to 50% beginning on Wednesday
The resilience has prompted many of those who watch markets closely to say that they now see the BoC leaving the key benchmark interest rate unchanged this week, even in the face of recent mixed economic data.
National Bank in a preview note published last Friday said it expects the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.
In explaining its rationale, the bank said, ultimately, its call hinges on policymakers’ judgement that they can’t be forward-looking.
“If they could be forward-looking (and despite uncertainty, we’d argue they should be), we see it as a clear-cut decision to ease.
But if policymakers are, as they imply, able to only react to the data they have in hand, the picture is admittedly mixed.”
National Bank noted the labor market, which carries a lot of weight, is consistent with further rate relief, but said the inflation picture right now is not giving the green light.
It noted there are also still key unknowns on trade impacts, inflation expectations and fiscal policy which further obscure the picture.
“Really though,” National Bank said, “if the Bank was comfortable holding steady in April when the outlook looked even more troubled, they should be fine waiting eight weeks from here.
The next decision in July will bring more data (to gauge tariff impacts), another Business Outlook Survey and greater clarity on the U.S. trade relationship with Canada (and the world).
We expect that by the time 30-Jul arrives, inflation anxiety will have moderated as economic slack accumulates and dominates modest tariff-driven inflation.
This would tip the scales towards a cut. Further out, our outlook for two quarters of negative growth, an unemployment rate above 7% and on-target inflation is consistent with the overnight target reaching 2% by year-end.”
Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, on Friday said while the BoC will share BMO’s concerns over the employment outlook, “robust” financial markets and “surprisingly sturdy” GDP growth will provide an offset.
Meanwhile, he added, the back-up of core inflation to above 3% will keep the BoC more cautious, suggesting that rates will be held steady at this week’s decision.
“We continue to believe that this is not the end of the line for rate cuts, but we are officially pushing back our timing of those trims, to restart in late July, and perhaps stretching into early next year.
We are still circling the likelihood of a 2.0% end-point for the overnight rate, on the view that policy will need to be a bit below the neutral range amid the ongoing trade cloud.”
TD Bank, in its Friday week-ahead outlook, also noted markets expect policymakers to hold the line on rates, especially with a hot core inflation print in April, the federal election bringing the possibility of stimulus, and some global de-escalation in the trade war since the Bank’s last decision in April.
On the other hand, TD said, Canada’s jobs market is weakening, a narrative reinforced by last week’s payroll data, and domestic activity flatlined in the first quarter.
“As Canada is likely entering a weak growth period, two more cuts are likely on tap for this year, even if the Bank stands pat next week,” according to TD.
RBC too said Friday it expects the BoC will forego an interest rate cut on Wednesday in another close call following April’s pause after seven consecutive cuts, although it added “arguments for a rate cut still remain”.
RBC noted labor markets have weakened, particularly in manufacturing where jobs dropped by 30,600 in April, the largest one-month decline since the pandemic, pushing unemployment to 6.9% from 6.6% in Q1.
It also noted housing markets have cooled, reducing the risk that lower rates would reignite surging prices, and gross domestic product growth has remained positive, although the monthly pace slowed sharply after a surge in production in January.
“However,” RBC added, “the limited data since the BoC’s last decision in April hasn’t been entirely negative.
Our RBC cardholder tracking shows consumer spending held up better than expected in March and April despite lower survey-based confidence measures.”
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose on Monday even as OPEC+ agreed to a third monthly production hike of 411,000 barrels per day in July but failed to meet market rumors reported last week that it was considering an even-larger increase.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $1.73 to settle at US$62.52 per barrel, while August Brent crude was up $1.67 to US$64.43.
Gold was sharply higher late afternoon on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar amid further U.S. tariff hikes and rising safe-haven demand.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $90.70 to US$3,406.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rebound in big tech drove stocks higher after a slide driven by weak manufacturing, trade and geopolitical risks.
Bonds fell as the dollar hit its lowest since 2023.
Coming off the S&P 500’s best May in 35 years, the benchmark edged up at the start of what’s historically one of its quietest months for gains.
Nvidia Corp. led an over 1.5% rally in a measure of chipmakers.
US steel and aluminum shares surged on Donald Trump’s pledge to double levies on the metals.
Longer-dated Treasuries underperformed, with the spread between five- and 30-year yields near a level it last closed above in 2021.
Oil climbed.
Wall Street kept a close eye on the latest twists in the trade war, with the US extending the exclusion of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese goods until Aug. 31, according to a notice issued by the US Customs and Border Protection.
Trump and Xi Jinping will “likely” speak this week, according to the White House.
“We continue to expect market volatility as investors digest fresh tariff headlines and incoming US economic data.
Fiscal worries remain, and geopolitical tensions are heating up,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Meantime, Russia and Ukraine wrapped up a second round of talks in Istanbul that failed to bring the two sides closer to ending the war, but laid the groundwork for a new exchange of prisoners.
Among policymakers speaking was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who didn’t comment on the rate outlook.

Corporate Highlights:
* Jamie Dimon said his retirement from the top post at JPMorgan Chase & Co. is “several years away,” but the decision is up the bank’s directors.
* Apple Inc. shares have struggled this year, but the iPhone maker offers a “significant” opportunity over the long-term, according to Bank of America Corp.
* Walt Disney Co. is laying off several hundred employees across its film and TV businesses, cuts that underscore the entertainment industry’s contraction is far from over.
* Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. will pay BioNTech SE as much as $11.1 billion to license a next-generation cancer drug, as competition intensifies in an area of oncology that seeks to harness the immune system to attack tumors.
* General Electric Co. is exercising some cost increases to pass on additional charges caused by tariffs, as the world’s largest aircraft engine maker advocates for a return to a duty-free regime that long underpinned the industry.
* Moderna Inc. climbed after gaining US approval for a new Covid vaccine for a narrower group of people, in the latest sign that regulators are restricting access to immunizations under the leadership of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.9% to $1.1444
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3545
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 142.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $104,501.06
* Ether rose 0.4% to $2,536.47
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.8% to $63.09 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.8% to $3,381 an ounce

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Engrave this upon thy heart:  There isn’t anyone you couldn’t love once you’ve heard their story. –Sr. Mary Lou Kownacki, 1941-2023.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com