Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
June 27, 1859: “Happy Birthday to You” song composed.
June 27, 1967: The world’s first ATM is unveiled in London by Barclay’s Bank.  It revolutionizes how people access their cash forever.
June 27, 1972 The video game company Atari was founded by Nolan Bushnell and Ted Dabney in Santa Clara, Calif. Go to article.

Helen Keller, b. 1880.
The world is full of suffering, but it is also full of people overcoming. -Helen Keller.

‘Pulsing, like a heartbeat’: Rhythmic mantle plume rising beneath Ethiopia is creating a new ocean
Scientists have detected rhythmic pulses of molten rock rising beneath eastern Africa, threatening to pull the continent apart. Read More.

Ancient ‘female-centered’ society thrived 9,000 years ago in proto-city in Turkey
Genetic analysis of skeletons buried in a Neolithic proto-city in Turkey reveals that female lineages were important in early agricultural societies.

Scientists forge path to the first million-qubit processor for quantum computers after ‘decade in the making’ breakthrough
Scientists in Australia have developed a quantum control chip that removes a key obstacle to getting qubits into practical, real-world computing systems. Read More.

‘City killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with ‘bullet-like’ meteors if it hits the moon in 2032
There is currently a 4.3% chance that the giant space rock 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in seven years. If this does happen, debris from the nuclear bomb-like impact could trigger a “spectacular” meteor shower that will endanger Earth-orbiting satellites.

Mystery behind cold blob in the Atlantic Ocean finally solved
Scientists have determined that slowing ocean currents are responsible for a cold spot south of Greenland. Read More.

‘It’s a sad day for us’
A foreshadowed death on “The Simpsons” has freaked out fans of the animated family.

Star-filled nuptials
Several A-list celebrities, including Oprah and Mick Jagger, have traveled to Venice for the lavish Bezos wedding this weekend.

From ‘Dune’ to 007
Oscar-winning director Denis Villeneuve has been tapped to helm the next movie in the James Bond franchise. “This is a massive responsibility, but also, incredibly exciting for me and a huge honor,” he said.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Pamiers, France
Soldiers of the 3rd Marine Infantry Parachute Regiment land in a field as they take part in the Cathare 25 exercise involving over 800 active and reserve military personnel
Photograph: Lionel Bonaventure/AFP/Getty Images

Lalitpur, Nepal
Farmers work in a field transplanting paddy saplings after the monsoon rain
Photograph: Subaas Shrestha/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Eastbourne, UK
Spectators react to a seagull that flew into the crowd during day five of the Lexus Eastbourne Open at Devonshire Park Lawn Tennis Club
Photograph: Adam Davy/PA
Market Closes for June 27^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43819.27	+432.43
		+1.00%
S&P 500	6173.07	+32.05
		+0.52
NASDAQ	20273.46	+105.55
		+0.52%
TSX	26692.32	-59.63
		-0.22%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40150.79	+566.21
		+1.43%
HANG SENG	24284.15	-41.25
		-0.17%
SENSEX	84058.90	+303.03
		+0.36%
FTSE 100*	8798.91	+61.31
		+0.72%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.307	3.340
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.596	3.628
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2769	4.2417
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8351	4.8002

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7304	0.7329
US $	1.3691	1.3644

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6053	0.6229
US $	1.1721	0.8531

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3318.70	3318.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.24	66.11

Market Commentary:
At your highest moment be careful, that’s when the devil comes for you. -Denzel Washington, b. 1954.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 26,692.32 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.7%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 4 of 11 sectors lost; 111 of 213 shares fell, while 98 rose.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.3%.
Lundin Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.9%.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 7.1%
* This month, the index rose 2%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.2% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.33t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.48% compared with 6.43% in the previous session and the average of 6.85% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -104.1686| -2.8| 5/43
Energy | -9.2323| -0.2| 14/23
Consumer Staples | -4.9844| -0.5| 7/3
Communication Services| -1.0307| -0.2| 2/3
Health Care | 0.4625| 0.7| 3/0
Utilities | 1.1643| 0.1| 8/6
Consumer Discretionary| 1.6671| 0.2| 6/3
Real Estate | 3.1003| 0.7| 14/5
Industrials | 6.4976| 0.2| 15/14
Information Technology| 22.5401| 0.9| 5/5
Financials | 24.3502| 0.3| 19/6
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -31.0200| -5.3| 37.8| 41.5
Wheaton Precious Metals | -10.8200| -2.8| 4.1| 47.9
Kinross Gold | -10.6600| -5.7| 47.1| 52.6
Brookfield Corp | 10.6200| 1.3| -6.2| 2.2
TC Energy | 11.5500| 2.4| 150.3| 0.0
Shopify | 12.9400| 1.0| 32.8| 1.8
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high on Friday, giving up early gains after U.S. President Donald Trump terminated all discussions around a trade deal with Canada, “effective immediately”.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 59.63 points at 26,692.32, falling off a session high of 26,806.62.
Despite overall losses, most sectors were higher, with the Battery Metals Index. up near 6.7%, the biggest gainer.
Base Metals was the biggest loser, down 1.35%.
Trump, in an afternoon social media post, said Canada “just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country.
” According to Trump, Canada is “obviously copying the European Union, which has done the same thing, and is currently under discussion with us [on trade], also.”
Trump also raised the prospect of an all-out trade war between the United States and Canada.
In his post he added: “We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven-day period.”
This comes after Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney said they would pursue negotiations toward a new trade and security deal by mid-July, a 30-day deadline from their talks during a G-7 Summit staged at an Alberta mountain resort earlier this month.
CBC TV caught Carney as he left his office in Ottawa after the Trump update and the PM said he had not spoken to the President today and added: “We will continue to conduct these complex negotiations in the best interests of Canadians.”
While some speculated Trump’s threat may well just be his way of moving trade negotiations onward, a few observers noted the first payments from Canada’s digital services tax, which was enacted last year and applies retroactively to 2022, are set to be collected June 30.
Much of the revenue will be collected from U.S. tech giants.
The U.S. threat overshadowed the release earlier Friday of what Scotiabank referred to as a “messy” 0.1% drop in Canada’s April GDP data as the Bank of Canada faces a “more complicated inflation picture”.
Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, noted second-quarter GDP “might be tracking a decline” due to varied drivers including tariffs, weather and forest fires.
At the same time, he also noted, core inflation to date “remains too high and sticky … ahead of forward-looking inflation risks beyond just GDP and slack arguments.”
Holt noted Canada’s economy “stumbled” in April and May with an upward revision to March.
He said the reasons probably have much to do with unwinding the effects of tariff front-running and then forest fires and weather.
Q1 and Q2 are likely best combined in terms of tracking in order to smooth out these effects with the focus remaining on second half of 2025 growth, and on the more complex drivers of core inflation to date and going forward, he added.
Holt noted the 0.1% drop month over month in April was two-tenths lower than Statcan’s initial ‘flash’ guidance provided about a month ago.
He said some of that was due to weaker data since then as guided.
But, he added some of it was due to an upward revision to March GDP that moved up a tick to 0.2% m/m SA, thereby providing a higher jumping off point for April GDP and making continued growth more difficult.
Adding to the uncertain outlook for this country, Scotia in a separate note said nearly all Canadian provinces are poised for slowdowns in 2025.
Scotia said: “While the Canadian economy started the year with solid momentum, growth is expected to decelerate over the course of the year in the wake of the U.S. trade war and changes to Canadian immigration policy.
Rising unemployment and lower population growth will weigh on consumption growth, and housing market activity has slowed as households delay major purchases.
Exports are likely to decline due to the tariffs and spillovers from slower U.S. growth.
We expect growth in central Canada to underperform the national average, given these provinces’ higher exposure to trade risks.
“While we continue to think a recession will be avoided, there is a high degree of uncertainty as to how the tariffs will ultimately impact the economy — in addition to the possibility of new tariffs.
Policy measures from the federal and provincial governments could provide a boost to economic activity, especially over the medium-term.
That said, the tariffs and impact of elevated uncertainty are likely to weigh on growth in all regions of the country in the near-term, and compound the effects of sharply reduced population growth.”
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher for a third day on Friday with traders seeing solid summer demand amid falling U.S. inventories even as supply is on the rise.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $0.28 to settle at US$65.52 per barrel, while August Brent crude was up $0.18 to US$67.91.
Gold traded sharply lower late afternoon as a key U.S. inflation measure ticked higher last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $63.80 to US$3,284.20 per ounce, the lowest since May 19.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders weighing a flurry of tariff headlines drove stocks to all-time highs in the final stretch of a week that saw a de-escalation in Middle East risks and signs the world’s largest economy is holding up amid all the cross-currents.
A rally in bonds stalled.
Thedollar rose.
A torrid rebound in equities from April’s trade-fueled meltdown drove the S&P 500 to its first record since February, with the gauge closing above 6,170.
Tech megacaps led the advance, with Nvidia Corp. approaching the $4 trillion mark and Alphabet Inc. up almost 3%.
Equities finished higher as the White House touted progress on trade deals with a few countries, even though President Donald Trump said he was ending discussions with Canada.
The loonie slipped.
Trump in April put tariffs on dozens of American trading partners on pause for three months a week after declaring them, when markets panicked over the possibility they could trigger a global recession.
Since then, a $10 trillion S&P 500 surge has defied Wall Street expectations, underscoring conviction that the economy is withstanding policy uncertainty.
“US equities have continued to recover from the tariff induced selloff in March and April,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS’s Chief Investment Office.
“We think the recovery makes sense, considering that most large-cap companies should weather the tariffs reasonably well.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled there may be some extensions to wrap up major pacts by Labor Day.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told EU leaders behind closed doors she was confident a deal could be reached before the deadline, according to people familiar with the matter.
And China confirmed details of a trade framework with Washington.
On the economic front, consumer sentiment rose sharply in June to a four-month high and inflation expectations improved notably.
Data also showed that while the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose slightly more than expected, the pace was seen as consistent with tame price pressures that will allow the Federal Reserve to resume its rate cuts later this year.
“A window of opportunity is more likely to open at one of the final three policy meetings of the year — in September, October or December — when the impact of tariff increases on inflation becomes clearer,’ said Gary Schlossberg at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers this week that he expects inflation to pick up in June, July and August as tariffs become increasingly reflected in consumer prices, though he added if that prediction fails to materialize, the US central bank could resume rate reductions sooner rather than later.
Money markets continued to project at least two Fed cuts by the end of this year.
Wagers on a third reduction could gain momentum if next Thursday’s jobs report is weak.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, the latest PCE reading showed that inflation is still not spiraling out of control.
However, it did snap a three-month streak of lower year-over-year readings, while last month’s figures were revised higher.
“Today’s inflation report shouldn’t be enough to give markets a significant scare, but it probably dashes the slim hopes investors had for a July rate cut,” Kenwell said.
“Further, it may give investors a bit of hesitation with stocks surging into record high territory as we near quarter-end.”
Kenwell says that stocks can do pretty well in a mild- inflationary environment.
“The key will be a reassuring earnings cycle and a strong consumer as we go into the second half of the year,” he noted.
Indeed, with earnings season just weeks away,  stocks will get a major test.
Wall Street sees profit growth of 2.8% year- over-year for the second quarter for the benchmark, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
That would be the smallest jump in two years.
The lackluster forecasts magnify concerns from some market watchers that valuations are stretched.
The risk of a speculative stock bubble is increasing as expectations of rate cuts draw massive investment flows, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
Already this year, $164 billion has flowed into US equities, on course for the third-largest annual inflow in history, he said, citing data from EPFR Global.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nike Inc. said its yearlong sales decline is starting to ease, suggesting that Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill’s strategic moves are paying off.
* Apple Inc. and Google’s Android have been warned by a top German privacy regulator that the Chinese AI service DeepSeek, available on their app stores, constitutes illegal content because it exposes users’ data to Chinese authorities.
* Two years after Nvidia Corp. made history by becoming the first chipmaker to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization, an even more remarkable milestone is within its grasp: becoming the first company to reach $4 trillion.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares have soared from an April low on a grab bag of positive developments, but to Baird analysts that’s too far, too fast. They downgraded the lender to underperform from a neutral rating, giving the stock its second sell rating.
* Shares of Boeing Co. are set to make gains as the company speeds up production of commercial aircraft and takes steps to move on from a series of crises in recent years, according to Rothschild & Co. Redburn, which raised the recommendation on the shares to buy.
* Estee Lauder Cos. was raised to buy at HSBC, which sees the cosmetics company at the end of a downgrade cycle.
* B. Riley Financial Inc. has sold its financial advisory services business GlassRatner to Canadian private equity firm TorQuest Partners, adding to a series of asset sales as the financial services firm deals with its woes.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. unveiled a new iteration of its artificial-intelligence technology that will make it easier for users to generate and modify images from texts and visuals, as the Chinese e-commerce giant continues its aggressive push into AI.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1709
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3709
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.72 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $106,926.43
* Ether fell 1.2% to $2,416.73
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $65.15 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,270.92 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation. -Plato, c.428 BCE-c.348 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
June 26, 1974: The first barcode is scanned on a pack of chewing gum in Ohio.  It revolutionizes retail and modern inventory systems.
June 26, 2000: Rival scientific teams completed the first rough map of the human genetic code. Go to article

Abner Doubleday, invented baseball, b. 1819.
Pearl S. buck, writer, b. 1892.

Job boards in trouble
It’s not just job seekers who are struggling. Monster and CareerBuilder have filed for bankruptcy.

No sailing into the sunset
A former jewelry store manager in the UK was recently sentenced to prison after stealing more than $170,000 in diamonds, gold, silver, jewelry and cash from her employer. You’ll never guess how she got caught.

Bumble stumbles
As younger users abandon online dating apps, companies like Bumble are being forced to lay off hundreds of workers and put a stronger emphasis on AI to find compatible matches.

1,000-year-old weapon goes on display
The well-preserved iron sword, which was discovered during a dredging operation of a Dutch river, has been donated to the Rijksmuseum van Oudheden (National Museum of Antiquities) in Leiden. 

‘God-king’ born from incest in ancient Ireland wasn’t a god or a king, new study finds
A closer look at the burial of a man born of incest 5,000 years ago reveals he was unlikely to have been a god-king. Read More.

Zombie NASA satellite emits powerful radio pulse after 60 years of silence
Last year, astronomers detected a powerful burst of radio waves from within our galaxy. Researchers now say it came from NASA’s defunct Relay 2 satellite —
but they’re not sure what caused it. Read More.

‘A first in applied physics’: Breakthrough quantum computer could consume 2,000 times less power than a supercomputer and solve problems 200 times faster
Scientists have built a compact physical qubit with built-in error correction, and now say it could be scaled into a 1,000-qubit machine that is small enough to fit inside a data center. They plan to release this machine in 2031. Read More.

Fungus that may have caused ‘King Tut’s curse’ shows promise in treating cancer
Scientists have found that a deadly tomb fungus called Aspergillus flavus may hold the key to promising new treatments for leukemia. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Glastonbury, UK
People with flowerpots as heads are seen during the Glastonbury Festival at Worthy Farm in Somerset
Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA
Bath, UK
A gull flies over the Roman bath. The site consists of four main parts: a sacred spring, a temple, a bathing area plus what is now a museum. More than a million tourists visit annually, although they are prohibited from entering the water
Photograph: Nurettin Boydak/Anadolu/Getty Images
Dunsden, UK
A hoverfly rests on the seed pod of a poppy in the humid afternoon weather in south Oxfordshire.
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock
Market Closes for June 26^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43386.84	+404.41
		+0.94%
S&P 500	6141.02	+48.86
		+0.80
NASDAQ	20167.91	+194.36
		+0.97%
TSX	26751.95	+185.63
		+0.70%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39584.58	+642.51
		+1.65%
HANG SENG	24325.40	-149.27
		-0.61%
SENSEX	83755.87	+1000.36
		+1.21%
FTSE 100*	8735.60	+16.85
		+0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.340	3.323
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.628	3.633
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2417	4.2906
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8002	4.8311

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7329	0.7287
US $	1.3644	1.3723

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5948	0.6270
US $	1.1691	0.8553

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3318.25	3302.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.11	65.38

Market Commentary:
There was a tie when a fool and his money were soon parted, but now it happens to everybody. –Adlai Stevenson, 1900-1965.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.7% at 26,751.95 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on June 2 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 10.8%.
Today, 158 of 213 shares rose, while 50 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 7.4%
* This month, the index rose 2.2%
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.1% below its 52-week high on June 24, 2025 and 23.5% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.3t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.43% compared with 6.52% in the previous session and the average of 6.93% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 67.3537| 0.8| 18/7
Materials | 61.6404| 1.7| 41/6
Energy | 42.0022| 1.0| 33/7
Industrials | 28.6935| 0.8| 27/2
Utilities | 2.6993| 0.3| 8/6
Real Estate | 1.7813| 0.4| 9/8
Health Care | 0.3425| 0.5| 2/0
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3300| 0.0| 7/2
Consumer Staples | -0.6660| -0.1| 6/4
Communication Services | -3.2690| -0.6| 2/3
Information Technology | -14.6176| -0.6| 5/5
RBC | 18.6800| 1.1| 19.4| 2.5
Bank of Montreal | 12.8500| 1.7| 117.3| 6.7
Teck Resources | 12.7100| 7.9| 60.1| -2.9
Nutrien | -4.4360| -1.6| -16.3| 23.1
Dollarama | -4.5730| -1.2| -4.0| 36.0
Shopify | -16.6900| -1.3| 76.6| 0.8
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its second record close of the week amid scant signs investor interest in Canadian stocks is slowing.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index put yesterday’s dip behind it and closed up 185.63 points, or 0.7%, to 26,751.95, beating the proir record close of 26,718.62 on Tuesday.
Most sectors were higher Thursday, with Base Metals, up 5%, posting the biggest gain on the day.
No other sector was up even by as much as 1%, while no sector fell by as much 1% either.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet the TSX went into Thursday’s session up near 6% from the Jan.20 U.S. Inauguration Day close of 25067.92.
It was also up 1.5% month to date, and 7.4% year to date heading in to today.
Canadian investors have largely ignored market noise around a potential global trade war and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to post a series of record closing highs this year and it can be assumed that they are keen on investment ideas.
Just as a source of information and potential ideas for stock pickers, and not as a promotion for Rosenberg Research, MT Newswires Canada notes Market Strategist Marius Jongstra published a note showcasing a sector rotation investing strategy based on its monthly ‘Strategizer’ report.
Available as part of both U.S. and Canadian equity models, Jongstra said Rosenberg Research sector rankings can be deployed in a portfolio either as a source of idea generation for bottom-up stock pickers or via a rotation model using existing ETFs.
He identifies two strategies that can be followed depending on how active an investor wishes to be, either by creating an equal-weighted portfolio of its top picks rebalanced monthly, or by simply doing the same at the beginning of each year and holding for 12 months.
Jongstra noted the first approach is “much more active”.
Rosenberg Research take its top sector rankings (it split its list in thirds, making the “top” ranks the first four sectors, including ties) and creates an equally weighted portfolio at the beginning of each month (25% in each; less if there are ties).
This process is repeated every month, rebalancing accordingly based on how the top picks shift with the latest monthly update.
Since launch at the end of 2020, this strategy, as of the end of May, would have generated a cumulative price return of 77% based on the Rosenberg Research U.S. picks, compared to 63% for the S&P 500, and 65% in Canada, against 52% for the TSX, Jongstra said.
Rosenberg Research awaits finalized monthly performance for June, but Jongstra said it entered the month with Communication Services, Utilities, Health Care, and Financials as the top picks in the U.S. With Canada, it was Materials, Industrials/Financials (tied), and Health Care/Communication Services (tied).
Jongstra noted the month to date performances have been +1.2% and +2.1%, respectively, compared to the +3.2% and +2.0% advance in the S&P 500 and TSX.
“For this strategy to work, it requires a dedicated amount of time to shifting the portfolio positions and will incur trading costs and taxes (if in a taxable account).
These are all considerations worth mentioning,” Jongstra added.
Jongstra said those not inclined to continually rebalance the portfolio on a monthly basis can take a “less active approach”.
He asked: “Strategizer’s premise is based on evaluating risk/reward on a forward 12-month basis … so why not just buy the top-ranked sectors and hold them for a given year?” He presented the results of doing so at the beginning of each year, based on the first report published in January.
With four full years of data on hand, Jongstra said the cumulative gain from simply creating an equal-weighted portfolio at the beginning of each year and rebalancing annually would have come in at 76.4% for the S&P 500 sector picks and 54.3% for the TSX.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a small gain on Thursday, rising for a second day on signs of solid U.S. summer demand and a falling dollar while the market is eyeing coming supply hikes from OPEC+.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $0.32 to settle at US$65.24 per barrel, while August Brent crude was down US$0.14 to US$67.54.
Gold edged higher late afternoon on Thursday as the dollar fell to the lowest in more than three years on expectations the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates this year despite concerns over the central bank’s independence amid attacks from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $1.50 to US$3,344.60 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s renewed push toward all-time highs saw stock investors setting aside recent geopolitical fears amid hopes that a resumption of Federal Reserve rate cuts will fuel the outlook for the economy and Corporate America.
Treasury yields fell alongside the dollar.
A nearly $10 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from the edge of a bear market put the gauge briefly above its Feb. 19 closing peak of 6,144.15.
The benchmark ended just shy of that mark at 6,141.02. Big tech led gains.
Banks climbed as a veteran analyst said that as long as there’s no recession, it’s “game on” for the shares.
A closely watched gauge of stock volatility – the VIX – slid to 16.59 after topping 52 at the height of April’s tariff-fueled turmoil.
“The stock market is back at record highs as various uncertainties start to fade,” said Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
“The market is betting on continued progress on trade, and a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East is giving investors’ confidence.”
Bonds climbed after economic data releases reinforced bets that the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice this year.
Traders are already fully pricing in two cuts by year-end, starting in September, and wagers on a third reduction could gain momentum if next week’s jobs report is weak.
A dollar gauge closed at the lowest since 2022.
Consumer spending grew in the first quarter at the weakest pace since the onset of the pandemic.
As a result, gross domestic product slid at a downwardly revised 0.5% annualized rate.
Recurring applications for unemployment benefits rose to the highest since 2021 – but initial claims fell.
“The economy is slowing, but remains resilient,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“While the numbers as a whole don’t necessarily make a compelling case for bulls or bears, for the time being, the market appears fixated on tech strength and the S&P 500’s potential return to record levels.”
Read: Treasury Deal Halts ‘Revenge Tax’ That Spooked Wall Street While it’s very encouraging to see stocks back near record highs, there are plenty of questions on the next catalyst needed to propel the market further from here, according to Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
“In mid-July, earnings season begins, and that will act as a more concrete gauge on how companies have grappled with tariff uncertainty during the months of April and May, which were months with extreme headline risk,” he said.
“The biggest risk right now isn’t missing out — it’s overreacting to short-term news, which could cause harmful investing mistakes.”
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, investors want to see two things come out of the second quarter: Better-than-expected earnings growth and a rebound to positive annualized GDP growth.
“If the latter is achieved, the US will avoid the technical definition of a recession,” Kenwell said.
“Further, if management tells a good story about the consumer and current business trends, it should give investors further reassurance.”
As the US stock market nears a fresh all-time high, retail investors are piling into equities.
The group purchased a net $3.2 billion of stocks in the five-day period through Wednesday’s close, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emma Wu.
Another aspect of the rally to all-time highs is that investors are rushing into speculative and volatile edges of the stock market.
“This is the very beginning of a period of FOMO that happens in the late stages of every structural bull market — every single one,” said Julian Emanuel at Evercore ISI.
“What we are surprised by is the speed at which speculation has been embraced given the record bearishness just a little over two months ago and also in light of what continues to be significant economic and policy uncertainty.”
With tech stocks powering major US indexes toward record highs, technical analysts see the makings of a pullback in the coming months unless more sectors join the rally.
The equal- weighted version of the S&P 500, which is often seen as a better reflection of market participation, is about 4% below its record touched in November.
At Barclays Plc, strategists led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha expect stocks to outperform bonds despite the impacts from the trade war.
They say equity investors’ focus is set to shift to economic data and AI from the twin topics of tariffs and the tax bill.
Stock-market volatility is likely to remain higher in the second half of the year given lingering macro and policy uncertainty, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
The team led by Andrea Ferrario says stagflationary shocks remain a key risk for balanced portfolios amid tariff-induced inflation risks.
A flurry of Fed officials this week made clear they’ll need a few more months to gain confidence that tariff-driven price hikes won’t raise inflation in a persistent way.
In an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly acknowledged she’s seeing increasing evidence that tariffs may not lead to a large or sustained inflation surge.
But that merely made her open to a rate cut “in the fall.”
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said he expects tariffs will put upward pressure on prices, and the central bank should wait for more clarity before adjusting rates.
Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she sees at least one cut this year, but indicated July would be too early for such a move.
US PREVIEW: Services to Offset Tariff Bump to Core PCE Inflation US inflation probably inched higher in May, offering scant evidence of extensive tariff-related repercussions the Fed expects to become more apparent later in 2025.
Economists see the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation — rising 0.1% in May for a third month.
That would mark the tamest three-month stretch since the pandemic five years ago.
“Friday’s PCE data will help to confirm whether or not the past few months of soft inflation data has staying power,” said Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
“The market is anxious for validation that inflation is truly easing.
A cooler PCE could give the hope that the Fed will still cut later this year.”
Meantime, a report that President Donald Trump is considering naming Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s successor well before the end of his term also drew investor attention The Wall Street Journal said Trump may reveal his pick to run the central bank by September or October.
“Messaging from a dovish incoming Chair could potentially overshadow the hawkish skew to Powell’s wait-and-see signals,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“That certainly appears to be how the market is interpreting the risks as evidenced by the grinding bid for Treasuries.”
The Fed is an institution that will continue carrying out its tasks, but if its independence were in question, then the financial markets will quickly protest, Russell Brownback, a portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television Thursday.
“I don’t think the independence of the Fed is in jeopardy,” he said.
“I think the markets would protest any kind of degradation of that independence very quickly.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Nike Inc. sales surpassed analysts’ expectations, showing the world’s largest sportswear company is recovering as it clears inventory to make way for fresher designs.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire PlayAI, a small startup using artificial intelligence to replicate voices, part of the social media company’s push to nab top talent and catch up in the AI race.
* Apple Inc. had its price target cut at JPMorgan Chase & Co. to $230 from $240 on the iPhone 17’s incremental lineup launch.
* Micron Technology Inc., the top-performing chipmaker on Wall Street this year, delivered an outlook that wasn’t quite rosy enough to keep its 2025 rally going.
* Salesforce Inc. Chief Executive Officer Marc Benioff said his company has automated a significant chunk of work with AI, another example of a firm touting labor-replacing potential of the emerging technology.
* Coinbase Global Inc. shares closed at the highest level ever, capping off a rally fueled by growing acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry on Wall Street and in Washington.
* The leader of UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s Optum Health care delivery unit has left the role, an early indication of management changes under Stephen Hemsley, UnitedHealth’s new chief executive officer.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. reported quarterly profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations, a hopeful sign as the pharmacy giant prepares to transform into a private company after its market value plummeted due to retail competition and lower prescription drug payments from insurance companies.
* Impossible Foods Inc. hopes to add its plant-based burgers to European menus this year, bringing to a close a six-year quest to enter the world’s biggest market for meat alternatives.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* KBW Bank Index rose 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1707
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3734
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 144.36 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $107,533.86
* Ether fell 0.2% to $2,434.57
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.24%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.47%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $65.44 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It takes as much energy to wish as it does to plan. –Eleanor Roosevelt,  1884-1862.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

June 25, 1950: The Korean War begins as North Korean troops cross the 38^th parallel.  The conflict draws in global powers and leaves Korea divided to this day.
June 25, 1951: The first commercial color telecast took place as CBS transmitted a one-hour special from New York to four other cities.  Go to article.

George Orwell, writer, b. 1903.
Carly Simon, musician, b. 1945.
George Michael, musician, b. 1963.

Liftoff!
Axiom Space Mission 4 departed from Kennedy Space Center in Florida overnight. The private mission includes a decorated former NASA astronaut and three spaceflight novices who will become the first people from India, Poland and Hungary to visit the International Space Station.

TV/film actor Joe Marinelli dies at 68
Marinelli was best known for playing cross-dressing mobster Bunny Tagliatti on “Santa Barbara” for more than 170 episodes. He won a Soap Opera Digest Award for his performance.

Teen idol Bobby Sherman dies at 81
Sherman had four Top 10 hits on the Billboard Hot 100 chart: “Little Woman,” “Julie, Do Ya Love Me,” “Easy Come, Easy Go,” and “La La La (If I Had You).”

Mars rover captures first close-up photos of giant ‘spiderwebs’ on the Red Planet
NASA’s Curiosity rover has snapped its first images of web-like “boxwork” features on the surface of Mars. The zig-zagging rocks could provide clues about the Red Planet’s watery past and whether it once harbored extraterrestrial life. Read More.

Alcohol-soaked star system could help explain ‘why life, including us, was able to form’
The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array has detected methanol isotopes around a nearby star, which could help explain why the ingredients for life are present on Earth. Read More.

Some early-onset cancers are on the rise. Why?
The rates of certain early-onset cancers are on the rise. The reasons are complex, experts say. Read More.

Intrepid baby-faced robot dons a jetpack for its next adventure — becoming the first humanoid robot to fly
New footage shows an expressionless iRonCub MK3 robot taking off using four thrusters — two where its arms should be and two in a jetpack on its back. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Srinagar, India
A person rows a boat carrying lotus roots through Dal Lake
Photograph: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP/Getty Images

Seattle, US
Visitors walk past the Gum Wall in Pike Place Market. Sticking chewing gum around the Market theatre originated in the 1990s and has now become a tourist attraction
Photograph: Agustín Marcarian/Reuters

​​​​​​​Festivalgoers arrive for Glastonbury 2025,Glastonbury festival 2025 at Worthy Farm in the village of Pilton in Somerset, south-west England, has opened its gates.
Glastonbury’s founder, Michael Eavis, and his daughter Emily celebrate with festivalgoers at the opening of the gates on the first day of the festival
Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 25^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42982.43	-106.59
		-0.25%
S&P 500	6092.16	-0.02
		—
NASDAQ	19973.55	+61.02
		+0.31%
TSX	26566.32	-152.30
		-0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38942.07	+151.51
		+0.39%
HANG SENG	24474.67	+297.60
		+1.23%
SENSEX	82755.51	+700.40
		-+0.85%
FTSE 100*	8718.75	-40.24
		-0.46

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.323	3.270
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.633	3.582
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2906	4.2945
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8311	4.8331

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7287	0.7284
US $	1.3723	1.3727

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5997	0.6251
US $	1.1657	0.8578

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3302.50	3380.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.38	65.38

Market Commentary:
The successful man is not so superior in ability as in action. –Roger Babson, 1875-1967.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 26,566.32 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.9%.
Brookfield Business Partners LP had the largest drop, falling 5.3%.
Today, 136 of 213 shares fell, while 75 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.6%
* This month, the index rose 1.5%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on June 24, 2025 and 22.7% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.32t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.52% compared with 6.18% in the previous session and the average of 6.95% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -37.5275| -0.4| 11/14
Energy | -32.1982| -0.8| 9/31
Industrials | -28.1967| -0.8| 11/17
Consumer Staples | -19.4482| -1.9| 2/8
Information Technology | -13.8419| -0.5| 3/7
Consumer Discretionary | -7.4479| -0.8| 0/9
Utilities | -6.5663| -0.6| 3/12
Real Estate | -6.4512| -1.3| 3/16
Communication Services | -1.5780| -0.3| 2/3
Materials | 0.0715| 0.0| 28/19
Health Care | 0.8711| 1.3| 3/0
Brookfield Corp | -16.2400| -1.9| -26.4| 0.0
Enbridge | -12.1900| -1.3| -27.8| 0.0
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -11.9600| -1.7| 64.5| 2.7
Wheaton Precious Metals | 3.2980| 0.9| -24.8| 51.5
Barrick Mining | 3.3640| 1.0| -15.8| 28.4
Celestica | 5.7250| 3.6| 43.0| 54.1
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a loss on Wednesday as investors took profits following yesterday’s record close, while concerns higher expenditures needed for defending Canada’s borders are going to substantially boost federal government spending substantially also weighed.
The S&P/TSX Composite index down 152.3 points to 26,566.32 falling off Tuesday record close of 26,718.62.
Most sectors were lower, but none by as much as 1%.
Health Care, up 1.4%, was the biggest gainer on the day.
Desjardins noted news reports Wednesday that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has committed to increase federal defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
This includes 3.5% of GDP in core defense expenditures and an additional 1.5% of GDP in defense-adjacent spending.
Today’s announcement follows last week’s commitment to reach the previous 2% of GDP NATO target by the end of the current fiscal year, up from an estimated 1.4% of GDP in 2024.
Randall Bartlett, Deputy Chief Economist at Desjardins, cited the Prime Minister as saying defense spending, which is already the government’s top spending item, could increase to $150 billion annually to meet the new NATO target.
Bartlett said this is a “reasonable estimate” of 3.5% of GDP in 2035, albeit under the assumption that there are minimal domestic economic spillovers.
He noted reaching 5% of GDP would increase spending to over $200 billion annually on defense and defense-adjacent expenditures in 2035.
“However,” Bartlett added, “our research found that the current NATO definition of what qualifies as a defence expenditure is very narrow, and current plans to categorize a wide range of federal government spending as military spending may be ambitious.”
According to Bartlett, planned increases in defense spending is likely to lead to significantly larger deficits, higher debt and increased issuance.
He noted with the federal government reducing personal and corporate income tax revenues, while at the same time increasing expenditures on other election priorities, much of this new spending will need to be debt financed.
Bartlett said that is unless the federal government raises revenues elsewhere, goes back on its commitment to leave major transfers to individuals and other levels of government untouched and/or can substantially reduce non-defense related Direct Program Expenses.
He noted the latter spending category was roughly $225 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year, while about $125 billion was for operating expenses, of which roughly one third was for defense, and $100 billion for other transfers, such as Indigenous land claims. “Although ‘savings from increased government productivity’ are hoped to net substantial savings over the next four years, this is unlikely to be enough to offset the material increase in spending without meaningful public service staff reductions,” Bartlett added.
Bartlett noted sovereign yield curves steepened following the announcement of a higher NATO target, including for the Government of Canada (GoC).
Bartlett said: “Canada’s fiscal position is currently one of the most enviable among advanced economies, leaving some room for potential new spending.
However, the planned substantial increase in defence expenditures comes against the backdrop of similar plans among other NATO members.
With central government debt issuance expected to ratchet up globally over the next decade, notably in the U.S. to fund the tax cuts include in the Big Beautiful Bill, GoC bond yields may continue to rise as a result of both domestic and international factors.
This would further erode the federal budget balance by putting upward pressure on public debt charges while also raising borrowing costs for other levels of government, businesses and households.
If expenditures generate a significant boost to productivity and potential GDP, notably via R&D and dual infrastructure components, pressures on debt sustainability will be alleviated, but the extent to which these expenditures will ultimately convert into productive capacity and pay themselves back through the revenue line remains an open question.”
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Wednesday after shedding more than US$10 per barrel in the prior two sessions as calming Middle East tensions cut into the commodity’s risk premium and traders again focus on supply and demand fundamentals.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $0.55 to settle at US$64.92 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen up $0.66 to US$67.80.
Also, gold moved hgher later afternoon as the dollar was steady on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s second day of congressional testimony.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $15.90 to US$3,349.80 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s rally is showing some signs of fatigue on speculation stocks have run too far amid economic and geopolitical risks.
Longer-term Treasuries underperformed.
Oil bounced from its biggest two-day plunge since 2022.
The dollar hit a three-year low.
Just a few points away from its all-time high, the S&P 500 wavered.
The Nasdaq 100 edged up, with Nvidia Corp. at a record.
In late hours, Micron Technology Inc. gave an upbeat forecast.
The Russell 2000 lost 1.2%.
The yield gap between 30-year and five-year bonds is near levels last seen in 2021.
The curve steepening is a wager the Federal Reserve will cut rates eventually while concern about debt issuance will pressure longer-term maturities.
Traders kept a close eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony on Capitol Hill after Fed officials left rates steady last week.
The Fed chief said the US central bank is still struggling to determine the impact of tariffs on consumer prices.
He also noted the US has the strongest economy in the world, and it makes sense to move slowly in times of uncertainty.
“If it were not for the uncertainty created by shifting trade policy, the Fed may have been able to cut interest rates this summer,” said Carol Schleif at BMO Private Wealth.
“The Fed’s pause on interest-rate cuts is tariff induced, and not necessarily reflective of economic progress.
We expect one to two cuts in 2025, starting most likely in September.”
Few times in history has the US market grappled with as many headwinds as it’s faced in 2025: a new president rejiggering the global order, sweeping tariffs and a bout of uncertainty stemming from Middle East headlines.
While stocks have still prevailed against all odds, the higher the S&P 500 goes, the louder the concern that its multiples are starting to look frothy.
“No market moves in a straight line,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“The thought that it might have to take a short- term breather is not something that will create any serious nervousness in the marketplace in and by itself.”
On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump said the US would hold a meeting with Iran next week but cast doubt on the need for a diplomatic agreement on the country’s nuclear program, citing the damage that American bombing had done to key sites.
His comments came on day two of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, ending 12 days of conflict that threatened to escalate into a wider regional war and upend energy markets.
“The markets are pricing in that the worst of the Iran/Israel conflict is behind us,” said Schleif.
“Tariffs, trade, tax, inflation, employment and interest rates have a lot more sway on stocks right now.”
Meantime, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are doubling down on their view that the US stock market is on track for a fresh record this year as the economy and consumers remain resilient despite policy uncertainty.
Absent any political or policy shocks, “we believe the path of least resistance to new highs will be supported by technology/artificial intelligence-led strong fundamentals, a steady bid from systematic strategies, and flows from active investors on dips,” strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote.
As stocks hover near all-time highs, a senior Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader warned that there are valid reasons to meet the latest gains with caution.
This is especially true of lower- quality parts of the market, where shares are being driven higher by short sellers forced to cover their positions, Louis Miller wrote.
“We flagged two weeks ago that the short squeeze the market was facing could provide an opportunity to press shorts lower, and we think that time is getting closer,” he wrote.
At Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson says he’s impressed by the overall resilience equity markets have displayed in the first two quarters of the year.
“The turbulent backdrop of tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, a US debt downgrade, and mounting national debt has been a stiff headwind for investors,” he noted.
“However, looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe the technical setup remains constructive and the proverbial ‘glass half-full’ based on the weight of the technical evidence.”
In fact, the Nasdaq 100 not only closed at its first record since February on Tuesday but formed a “golden cross” in the process.
That’s when the 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average.
“Golden crosses are not something that most technicians highlight very often, but it is still a positive signal for momentum,” said Maley at Miller Tabak.
The last two times the tech-heavy gauge experienced a “golden cross,” the gauge saw big rallies before seeing another correction, he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* FedEx Corp. warned that its profit would be worse than expected this quarter and declined to offer guidance for the rest of the year.
* Cheerios maker General Mills Inc. offered an outlook for the fiscal year ahead that fell below investors’ expectations.
* The artificial-intelligence tailwinds that have driven the shares of Nvidia Corp. sharply higher the past few years show no signs of abating and could eventually push the chipmaker’s value to a market-topping $6 trillion, according to Loop Capital.
* Apple Inc. is poised to offer further App Store changes to appease European Union antitrust watchdogs who issued an ultimatum after doling out a €500 million ($580 million) fine.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google is adding an artificial intelligence coding assistant to to ease the work of developers, aiming to catch up with rival products such as OpenAI’s Codex and Anthropic’s Claude Code.
* Bumble Inc. is cutting about one-third of its staff, months after founder Whitney Wolfe Herd returned as chief executive officer to overhaul the struggling dating app.
* Yum! Brands Inc., the operator of chains as KFC and Taco Bell, was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
* Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push to eliminate synthetic dyes from the US food supply gained more steam on Wednesday with Nestlé SA and Conagra Brands Inc. announcing separately that they will cut the additives in the future.
* Hims & Hers Health Inc. won’t back down from selling cheap weight-loss shots, its chief executive officer said one day after Novo Nordisk A/S abruptly ended its distribution partnership.
* Worldline SA, which describes itself as the largest European payment processor, cratered on reports that the company allegedly covered up fraud by some of its customers.
* Deutsche Boerse AG has added more banks to a potential $1 billion initial public offering of its governance data and analytics unit ISS Stoxx, according to people familiar with the matter, as it weighs whether to list a stake held by a private equity firm or buy it back.
* Shell Plc denied a Wall Street Journal report that it is in active talks about acquiring its London-based oil rival BP Plc.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1659
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3666
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 145.24 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.5% to $107,778.73
* Ether fell 0.7% to $2,432.97
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.56%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.48%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $65.22 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,333.87 an ounce
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Get it down.  Take chances.  It may be bad, but it’s the only way you can do anything really good. –William Faulkner, 1897-1962.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: St. Jean Baptiste Day – big holiday in Quebec.  Bannockburn Day, Scotland.
June 24, 1497: Newfoundland discovered.
June 24, 1717: The world’s first Masonic Grand Lodge is established in London, formalizing the  structure of the secretive fraternal society of Freemasonry.
On June 24, 1997, the Air Force released a report on the so-called “Roswell Incident,” suggesting the alien bodies witnesses reported seeing in 1947 were actually life-sized dummies. Go to article.

Jack Dempsey, boxer, b. 1895.

We finally know why Queen Hatshepsut’s statues were destroyed in ancient Egypt
Some of the female pharaoh’s statues were “ritually deactivated,” a new study finds.  Read More.

Hells Canyon caves reveal unexpected finding about America’s deepest gorge.  Read More.

‘Staggering’ first images from Vera C. Rubin Observatory show 10 million galaxies — and billions more are on the way
The first “stunning” images from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory were released yesterday, capturing roughly 10 million galaxies, many of which have never been studied before.  Read More.

New study claims AI ‘understands’ emotion better than us — especially in emotionally charged situations
Common AI models outperformed humans on emotional intelligence in a recent study, but experts caution us to look beyond the headline.  Read More.

Salmon-hat wearing orcas also give each other massages with kelp, scientists discover
Orcas have been spotted giving each other rubdowns with kelp tools, rubbing pieces of the seaweed between their bodies.  Read More.

Selfie screwup
A visitor to the Uffizi Galleries in Florence, Italy, damaged a 17th-century painting after stumbling back into it while posing for a photo.

‘Crazy In Love’
Beyoncé closed out the international portion of her Cowboy Carter tour in Paris with a special guest.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bucharest, Romania
Girls wearing traditional outfits dance during an event inspired by pre-Christian traditions, in which fairies, called Sanziene in Romanian, come to earth for the summer solstice bringing fertility to land and beings, at the Dimitrie Gusti village museum
Photograph: Andreea Alexandru/AP

A vertical forest growing in the Netherlands
The buildings change color and shape with relation to the season,’ Boeri said. ‘We’re used to thinking of architecture as stable, but these change continuously, and every year is different.’
Photograph: Judith Jockel/The Guardian

Paris, France
The Herds, in which life-size animal puppets fleeing climate breakdown have visited cities on a 12,400-mile (20,000km) trip from Africa to the Arctic Circle, arrives in the French capital, with 100 puppeteers giving life to 40 animals. Their journey ends in Trondheim on 30 July
Photograph: David Levene/The Guardian
Market Closes for June 24^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43089.02	+507.24
		+1.19%
S&P 500	6092.18	+67.01
		+1.11%
NASDAQ	19912.54	+281.57
		+1.43%
TSX	26718.62	+109.26
		+0.41%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38790.56	+436.47
		+1.14%
HANG SENG	24177.07	+487.94
		+2.06%
SENSEX	82055.11	+158.32
		+0.19%
FTSE 100*	8758.99	+0.95
		+0.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.270	3.278
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.582	3.580
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2945	4.3475
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8331	4.8755

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7284	0.7282
US $	1.3727	1.3732

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5932	0.6276
US $	1.1606	0.8616

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3380.55	3368.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.38	74.93

Market Commentary:
The stock market is the only place where the customers don’t buy when the merchandise goes on sale. –Alex Green, b.1958, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 109.26 to 26,718.62 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.0%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 109 of 213 shares rose, while 101 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 7.2%
* This month, the index rose 2.1%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.8% above its low on June 24, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.3t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.18% compared with 6.15% in the previous session and the average of 6.97% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 85.6095| 1.0| 22/3
Information Technology | 75.8699| 3.0| 9/1
Consumer Staples | 10.4052| 1.0| 10/0
Industrials | 7.1597| 0.2| 25/4
Consumer Discretionary | 6.1940| 0.7| 9/0
Utilities | 1.8034| 0.2| 5/9
Communication Services | 1.2997| 0.2| 2/3
Real Estate | 0.8800| 0.2| 8/9
Health Care | -0.2675| -0.4| 1/2
Energy | -18.5852| -0.4| 8/32
Materials | -61.1042| -1.7| 10/38
Shopify | 51.4200| 4.0| -2.1| 2.6
Brookfield Corp | 23.6500| 2.9| -21.2| 1.9
RBC | 14.4300| 0.8| -7.8| 1.6
Barrick Mining | -8.7720| -2.5| 27.9| 27.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -9.8120| -1.7| 29.6| 47.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -12.5900| -2.0| -23.2| -2.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose to a fresh record high on Tuesday as markets priced out further any Iranian retaliation against the United States, while signs of moderation in Canada’s inflation have led to a debate about whether this will be enough to put this country’s central bank back on the rate cut path.
Despite lower commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the session up 109.26 points to 26,718.62, leaving it more than 100 points above the prior record close set on June 12.
Most sectors were higher, led by Info Tech, up 2.5%, and the Battery Metals Index, up near 1.2%,.
But Energy was down near 1.5% and Health Care was flat to slightly lower Rosenberg Research in a note entitled ‘Geopolitics in Focus: Markets Are Pricing Out Further Iranian Retaliation’ noted the U.S. air strikes against Iran were met with a calm reaction from global markets, with oil prices falling significantly on Monday despite Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The research said, “markets are now fully pricing in a de-escalatory scenario, but some tail risks remain”.
With the well-telegraphed strike on a U.S. base in Qatar, and a possible ceasefire, Iran appears to be done with their reactions, it added.
In a separate note, Rosenberg Research said today’s report showing May inflation unchanged at 1.7% was “mixed” but added there was “just enough comforting news” to ensure the Bank of Canada pause last month will not mean an end to the easing cycle.
“All in,” said founder David Rosenberg, “a mixed report and something for everyone.”
“From my lens,” he added, “what is most important is that the ex-mortgage inflation rate is running below target.
Not to mention that inflation is a classic lagging indicator, and with the Canadian economy now flatlining, the output gap is widening again, and the buildup of excess supply will ensure that the disinflation momentum will be renewed in coming months and quarters.
How the tariff file plays out obviously is important, but when the economy builds up slack the business sector feels the brunt via profit margin compression.
Inflation is not all about what the corporate sector wants to charge but what it can get away with charging, and when the unemployment rate trends higher, as is already the case, this ability to pass on any costs becomes seriously constrained by a consumer who will simply revolt by cutting back or delaying their spending activity.”
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, noted Canada’s underlying inflation measures moderated in May, with trim/median averaging up 0.21% month over month and 3.0% year over year, “a result that should give the Bank of Canada some comfort following the firm figures for April”.
Doyle noted headline CPI remained at 1.7% annualized, with the energy price decline due to cancellation of the consumer carbon tax continuing to provide relief.
Macquarie expects an “uneven moderation” in underlying inflation ahead.
Doyle noted unemployment has reached 7% and private sector wage growth has “moderated sharply”, while shelter inflation is likely to continue to subside with low population growth a driver.
The recent rebound in the Canadian dollar should also help alleviate pressure on import prices, he noted.
Doyle said today’s data kept the market odds of a July 25 basis point cut at near 33%.
Macquarie continues to see a rate cut as likely to occur in next month, although the decision will hinge on the outcome of the inflation data for June, due on July 15, and the Business Outlook Survey coming July 21.
“We suspect the latter will show a moderation in inflation expectations.
This has already shown up in small business wage and price plans in recent months,” he added.
However, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, said core inflation remains “too warm” to be contemplating rate cuts.
Holt said: “Ignore the headline CPI reading that continues to be weighed down by the elimination of the consumer portion of the carbon tax; it’s below the 2% target, but the tax distortion makes that meaningless.
The bigger issue here is that underlying price pressures remain too high and rising breadth combines to signal that inflation has yet to be licked.
To twist a phrase, the Bank of Canada shouldn’t even be thinking about thinking about when to cut rates.
Let’s see prospects for a trade and security deal, a Fall budget, and further data first.”
All of this comes as S&P Global Ratings Economics said today in a report titled ‘Economic Outlook Canada Q3 2025: U.S.
Tariff Uncertainty and Slower Population Growth Weigh on Momentum’ that it believes Canada’s economy is still set to slip into below-potential GDP growth in the near term, while avoiding a recession.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a second day on Tuesday as it cedes a risk premium after the U.S. and Iran backed away from hostilities while Iran and Israel reached a shaky ceasefire agreement.
WTI oil closed $4.14 to settle at US$64.37 per barrel, bringing losses over the past two sessions to US$10.56.
August Brent crude was last seen down $4.19 to US$67.29.
Also, gold prices tumbled with safe-haven demand easing.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$60.00 to US$3,335.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street bulls drove stocks higher amid easing Middle East tensions and balanced comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on prospects for rate cuts.
Treasury yields and the dollar fell.
Oil tumbled.
The S&P 500 rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.5%, notching its first record since February.
West Texas Intermediate crude plunged nearly 15% over two sessions to settle around $64 a barrel.
In late hours, FedEx Corp. forecast a worse-than-expected profit.
Money markets fully priced in two Fed cuts by the end of 2025, with a first move in September far more likely than next month — even as bets on a July reduction edged up slightly.
“If it turns out that inflation pressures do remain obtained, then we will get to a place where we cut rates, sooner rather than later,” Powell told lawmakers in response to a question about the possibility of a July move.
“But I wouldn’t want to point to a particular meeting.
I don’t think we need to be in any rush because the economy is still strong.”
To Andrew Brenner at Nat Alliance Securities, Powell was unable to “convince markets of hawkishness.”
“The markets are telling Powell that he will be lowering rates much more quickly than he portrayed today,” Brenner noted.
“We just don’t know about July.
We would need a weak payroll report.”
Traders continued to keep a very close eye on Middle East developments.
Israel and Iran appeared to be honoring a ceasefire agreement unexpectedly announced by US President Donald Trump, after the American leader reacted angrily to early breaches of the deal by both sides.
“Markets are finally breathing again,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital.
“The easing in Middle East tensions, paired with Powell striking a more flexible tone, is giving equities room to run and volatility a much-needed pause.”
Powell’s remarks before the House Financial Services Committee came on the heels of the Fed’s decision last week to stay on hold.
He reiterated his view that policymakers need not rush to adjust policy, a counter to recent statements from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman that signaled the two would be open to lowering rates as soon as July.
At Evercore, Krishna Guha says a “balanced Powell” kept the focus on a September, not a July move.
“For us, the most interesting takeaway was his comment that ‘a couple of cuts or maybe more’ would put the Fed back at neutral,” Guha said.
“The sense that policy is only ‘modestly’ restrictive helps justify holding here while the Fed learns more on the tariff impact on both inflation and employment.”
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said officials need more clarity on how tariffs will impact prices even as recent inflation data has been “quite positive.”
His New York counterpart John Williams said it’s “entirely appropriate” to hold rates to analyze impacts of policy changes.
Fed Governor Michael Barr said he anticipates tariffs will drive up inflation and expressed support for a wait-and-see approach on rates.
Fed Bank of Cleveland chief Beth Hammack said policymakers may hold borrowing costs steady for some time.
Meantime, Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins said the modestly restrictive stance is necessary.
Powell also said potential changes to a key capital buffer should bolster banks’ roles as intermediaries in the Treasury market.
Bill Gross has bad news for Treasury bulls, and good news for stock investors.
The billionaire investor warned that the 10-year Treasury yield will struggle to dip below 4.25% as ballooning fiscal deficits and a weaker dollar conspire to keep inflation elevated.
On the flipside, according to Gross, equity markets are likely to continue to grind higher driven by the sheer power of the artificial-intelligence era.
“I suggest a ‘little bull market’ for stocks and a ‘little bear market’ for bonds,” the co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co. wrote in an X post on Tuesday.
“Stocks are AI dominated and continue to suggest 1-2% economic growth.”
The risks facing the stock market are swiftly diminishing as economic growth remains solid despite the turmoil from tariffs and geopolitics.
Equities have been remarkably resilient over the past two months as the S&P 500 bounced sharply from April lows, putting it about 1% away from its record high.
“It’s dangerous for investors to overreact on such events which typically turn out to be entry points rather than lasting selloffs,” Barclays Plc strategist Emmanuel Cau said.
“This could actually end up as a bullish factor for stocks over the medium term.”
Oil plunged for the second straight day as Trump signaled, he wants to keep oil flowing out of Iran after brokering a fragile ceasefire between Tehran and Israel.
Prices have slumped amid the significant de-escalation of a conflict that has rocked the energy-rich Middle East.
Trump said in a social media post that China can continue buying Iranian oil and that he hopes the country will also be purchasing “plenty” from the US.
Crude fell further as both sides made de-escalatory remarks.
“A lot can happen obviously still happen with this war, so nobody is going to send up a ‘Mission Accomplished’ signal,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“However, the risks involved with this conflict have certainly fallen meaningfully over the past few days.”
Having said that, Maley says the risk/reward equation is still skewed heavily towards the risk side.
“The stock market is still very expensive at a time where the level growth in the US economy is falling and earnings estimates are falling,” Maley said.
“Investors should be careful about assuming that this good news on the geopolitical front is something that will cause the market to rally substantially higher.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. will conduct another round of major layoffs in its Xbox division next week as part of a company-wide reorganization.
* US safety investigators pointed to breakdowns in Boeing Co.’s manufacturing processes as well as poor oversight by the US Federal Aviation Administration as key factors that led to a panel blowing off a 737 Max aircraft shortly after takeoff last year.
* McDonald’s Corp. and Krispy Kreme Inc. are ending their partnership after a little more than a year, with the doughnut chain citing cost issues.
* Cathie Wood is trimming her portfolio after scoring big with her latest bold bet: Circle Internet Group Inc., the stablecoin firm that has seen its shares surge by triple digits since its debut as a public company.
* Uber Technologies Inc. will begin offering its customers driverless Waymo rides in Atlanta, making it the second market, after Austin, where the two companies are teaming up instead of competing against each other.
* Bondholders sought to sell more than $30 billion of notes back to Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., over twice the face value of the debt the company said it would repurchase, according to a statement on Tuesday, as the media giant prepares to overhaul its liabilities and split in two.
* Walmart Inc. is testing dark stores, which resemble retail stores but are closed to the public, to speed up deliveries.
* Target Corp. is testing the delivery of products directly to customers’ homes from factories, said people familiar with the matter, an effort by the big-box retailer to launch a service like the Chinese e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein.
* Starbucks Corp. said it’s not currently considering a full sale of its China business, disputing a report from Caixin Global, as the coffee giant battles cheaper local rivals in its second-biggest market.
* BBVA SA’s €14 billion ($16 billion) bid for rival Banco Sabadell SA suffered a major setback after the Spanish government said the two lenders wouldn’t be allowed to integrate their operations for several years.
* Novo Nordisk A/S is hunting for more early-stage deals to pad its pipeline of next-generation obesity drugs, as the drugmaker struggles to fend off rivals in the burgeoning weight-loss market it helped pioneer.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1614
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.3621
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 144.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $105,709.64
* Ether rose 3.7% to $2,435.43
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.29%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.47%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.2% to $64.93 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.3% to $3,323.66 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
A fool and his money are soon elected. –Will Rogers, 1879-1935.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

June 23, 1868: Christopher Latham Sholes received a patent for an invention he called the “Type-Writer.” Go to article.
June 23, 2016: The UK votes to leave the European Union, with a slim majority backing Brexit after over four decades of membership.

A new window into the universe is about to open. On Monday (June 23), the Vera C. Rubin Observatory — a joint project between the U.S. National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy — will release its very first images in a live broadcast. The livestream begins at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) and will be simulcast on Space.com as well as on the Rubin Observatory‘s official channels. Viewers will get a first look at the magnificent images taken by the observatory’s 3,200-megapixel camera — the largest digital camera ever built. (Sources space.com, rubinobservatory.org).

Medieval gold ring found in castle in Slovakia has rare purple sapphire imported from Sri Lanka
An analysis of a 700-year-old ring reveals a unique reddish-purple sapphire set in 18-karat gold with a lion decoration. Read More.

There’s a ‘ghost’ plume lurking beneath the Middle East — and it might explain how India wound up where it is today
Researchers have discovered an unusual plume of magma beneath Oman that may have changed the course of the Indian tectonic plate between 25 million and 40 million years ago. Read More.

‘Dreadful danger for all mankind’: Einstein’s powerful anti-war letter goes up for auction
A fiery letter written by Albert Einstein in 1954 is going to auction. The letter details Einstein’s thoughts on his part in developing atomic weapons, and hails Mahatma Gandhi as a political genius. Read More.

AI hallucinates more frequently as it gets more advanced — is there any way to stop it from happening, and should we even try?
OpenAI’s most advanced reasoning model is smarter than ever — but it hallucinates more than previous models, too. Read More.

Jones bows out
Jon Jones, 37, who laid claim to being the greatest mixed martial arts fighter of all time, announced his retirement over the weekend.

Thank you for being a … frenemy?
Apparently, not all of “The Golden Girls” were as warm and fuzzy as the sitcom’s theme song suggested. Two of the show’s stars “couldn’t warm up to each other if they were cremated together,” a co-producer recently said.

Decanting success
The winners of the Decanter World Wine Awards 2025 were recently announced and one country triumphed above all others.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Space
A small section of NSF-DOE Vera C Rubin observatory’s total view of the Virgo cluster. Visible are two prominent spiral galaxies (lower right), three merging galaxies (upper right), several groups of distant galaxies and many stars in the Milky Way
Photograph: NSF-DOE Vera C Rubin Observatory/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Clichy-Batignolles, in the city’s north-west, is emblematic of the ‘15-minute’ city approach to urban planning
The park features a pond with native plants, as well as a fruit orchard, playgrounds and a skatepark.
Photograph: Ed Alcock/Guardian

2025 summer solstice at Stonehenge
The sun rises at Stonehenge on what was forecast to be a very hot day
Photograph: Sam Frost/English Heritage
Market Closes for June 23^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42581.78	+374.96
		+0.89%
S&P 500	6025.17	+57.33
		+0.96%
NASDAQ	19630.98	+183.57
		+0.94%
TSX	26609.36	+111.79
		+0.42%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38354.09	-49.14
		-0.13%
HANG SENG	23689.13	+158.65
		+0.67%
SENSEX	81896.81	-511.36
		-0.62%
FTSE 100*	8758.04	-16.61
		-0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.278	3.303
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.580	3.597
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3475	4.3751
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8755	4.8887

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7282	0.7284
US $	1.3732	1.3728

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5900	0.6289
US $	1.1579	0.8636

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3368.25	3368.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	74.93	75.14

Market Commentary:
During the first period of a man’s life the greatest danger is not to take the risk.-Soren Kierkegaard, 1813-1855.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 26,609.36 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on June 2 and follows the previous session’s little change.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.3%.
Iamgold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 5.6%.
Today, 140 of 213 shares rose, while 70 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.8%
* This month, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on June 16, 2025, and 23.3% above its low on June 24, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.15% compared with 6.31% in the previous session and the average of 7.16% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 53.0411| 2.1| 8/2
Financials | 52.5730| 0.6| 19/6
Materials | 32.2422| 0.9| 39/9
Industrials | 17.8460| 0.5| 25/3
Consumer Discretionary | 9.7440| 1.1| 8/1
Consumer Staples | 9.1258| 0.9| 8/2
Communication Services | 6.3746| 1.1| 5/0
Utilities | 4.7732| 0.5| 9/6
Real Estate | 1.7369| 0.4| 9/8
Health Care | -0.0722| -0.1| 2/1
Energy | -75.5965| -1.7| 8/32
Shopify | 40.5200| 3.3| -2.7| -1.3
Manulife Financial | 10.1700| 2.0| -17.6| -2.7
Constellation Software | 8.2240| 1.2| -20.1| 10.0
Cenovus | -8.7370| -4.9| 42.3| -12.3
Suncor | -14.4100| -3.0| -6.2| 4.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -27.5200| -4.1| 29.5| -0.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange was up for the first session in three on Monday, just failing to post a fresh record close Monday as investors overlooked divided opinions on the outlook for the Canadian economy, mixed commodity prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to do some broad=based buying.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 111.79 points, or 0.4%, at 26,609.36, back to within 10 points of its record close of 26,615.75 hit on June 12.
Among sectors, the biggest gainers were Information Technology, up near 1.45%, Base Metals, up 1.4%, and Telecoms, up 1.1%.
Energy was down 3.5% and the Battery Metals Index was nearly 1% lower.
On the outlook for Canada’s economy, RBC sees a “very small likelihood the economy goes pear-shaped and requires substantial stimulus” while National Bank says the Bank of Canada will need to ease monetary policy further to stabilize the economy.
RBC in a ‘Canada Rates Outlook’ note published today said devising an investment thesis is “challenging in the best of times, and downright difficult right now” with macro and markets “hostage to U.S. policy uncertainty”.
The bank said: “The delta on economic activity will be lower but the magnitude of the slowdown could encompass a wide range of outcomes.
The direct hit from tariffs is minimal but the indirect channels (uncertainty and a US/global slowdown) should drag Canada down, at least temporarily.”
“So far,” the bank added, “the economy has been resilient.
Headline inflation is contained, while core remains stubbornly sticky.”
Over the second half of 2025, according to RBC, the bond market will need to navigate three influences: an uncertain macro backdrop and volatile data; a trimodal distribution of 2026 monetary policy risks; a heavy issuance calendar.
It said: “We think the BoC is finished cutting interest rates.
If growth & inflation cooperate, there is a low chance they cut twice and a very small likelihood the economy goes pear-shaped and requires substantial stimulus.”
In contrast, National Bank in its Monthly Economic Monitor for June said the Canadian economy continues to show signs of weakness, held back by persistent uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which is “paralyzing” business investment decisions.
Domestic demand remained sluggish in the first quarter, while the labor market deteriorated sharply, the bank added.
National Bank noted the manufacturing sector remains the main loser in the face of U.S. protectionist measures.
It said: “The trend of front-loaded purchases by US companies, observed before the tariffs came into force, has logically been reversed.
However, the economic repercussions go beyond manufacturing alone, as evidenced by job losses in other industries.”
Despite this backdrop, National Bank noted, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged for the second time in a row in the face of reaccelerating core inflation.
“Although the geopolitical situation in the Middle East poses a risk to our inflation scenario, we remain skeptical that inflationary pressures will persist given the weakening labour market and the slowdown in wages,” the bank added.
National Bank believes that the central bank will need to ease monetary policy further to stabilize the economy.
The real estate market is in urgent need of support, as are households renewing their mortgages and facing a major payment shock, it said.
According to National Bank’s forecasts, slight economic contractions are likely in the second and third quarters.
The unemployment rate should stabilize at around 7.3%.
The bank anticipates GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate fell 7% on Monday as Iran retaliated to the weekend attack on its uranium-enrichment sites with a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar but gave hours of notice to minimize casualties.
WTI crude for August delivery closed down $5.33 to US$68.51 per barrel, down from an overnight peak of US$78.40, the highest in a year.
August Brent crude was last seen up $5.27 to US$71.74 But gold traded higher late afternoon on Monday as the dollar weakened following the U.S. attack.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $6.50 to US$3,392.20 per ounce but remained under overnight highs of US$3,413.80.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher as oil tumbled, with Iran’s retaliatory strikes at a US air base in Qatar seen as symbolic and unable to trigger a broader economic fallout.
The dollar fell.
The S&P 500 extended gains to 1% as President Donald Trump raised hopes of de-escalating the Middle East conflict, saying the Iranian attack Monday was “very weak” and telegraphed ahead of time by Tehran.
West Texas Intermediate dropped below $70 as concerns the conflict would disrupt Middle East supplies eased.
As worries about an imminent threat to inflation abated, bond yields slid.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the symbolic strike allows Iran to claim that it has retaliated against the US military, while sending a clear message it doesn’t want to get drawn into a war with the US it cannot win, which would threaten its regime stability.
“It is possible that Iran will fire against other US bases in the region in the coming days, but such attacks are not likely to be any less ‘scripted’ than this attack, de facto sealing a de-escalatory Iranian stance,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard at 22V Research. “Today’s attack hence should serve to lower global geopolitical risk premia affecting crude oil and gas trade in the Gulf region.”
The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude production and there haven’t yet been any signs of disruption to physical oil flows, including for cargoes going through the Strait of Hormuz.
Since Israel’s attacks began earlier this month, there have been signs that Iranian oil shipments out of the Gulf have risen rather than declined.
“The Iranian response today seems manageable and perhaps a clearing event, while other parts of the world have remained remarkably quiet, despite the weekend’s surprise action,” said Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners.
“Lower oil prices are providing a release valve for stress that built up over the weekend, also allowing the bull case of steady global growth to continue.
While a closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would be the biggest upside risk to oil, investors should lean against overshoots in crude prices, according to Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.
“First, Iran relies heavily on this passageway for its own exports.
Closing it is unlikely as it would cripple its own economy.
Second, the US and allies maintain strong naval presence in the region.
Blocking the strait could trigger more severe military repercussions against Iran,” he said.
Oil prices traded in a $10-a-barrel range on Monday, first rising by more than 6% only to drop even more, underscoring just how on edge traders are and how critical every development in the region is to global energy markets.
“Despite ominous headlines, we are not seeing an increase in oil prices or geopolitical tensions in the markets as fears of the conflict spreading remain low,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“Unless investors fear the conflict will spread and engulf the entire region and dramatically reduce oil supplies, then rising geopolitical tensions won’t be a material negative on this market.”
While the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are dominating headlines, but selloffs caused by geopolitical events tend to be brief, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
“History suggests most geopolitically led selloffs are short-lived/modest,” strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note on Monday.
“Oil prices will determine whether volatility persists.”
According to the Morgan Stanley team, prior geopolitical risk events have led to some volatility for equities in the short term, but one, three and 12 months after the events, the S&P 500 has been up 2%, 3%, and 9%, on average, respectively.
Bond investors watching the latest geopolitical developments are on alert for hints on when the Fed will deliver the two 2025 rate cuts officials projected at their latest policy meeting.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have two chances this week to explain to lawmakers why he and most of his fellow policymakers seem resolved to continue holding interest rates steady at least until September, ignoring President Donald Trump’s persistent calls to lower borrowing costs.
He will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m.
Tuesday, and at the same time on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee.
Money markets boosted bets on policy easing as Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman signaled support for a potential rate cut as soon as July.
Bowman said she would support lowering interest rates as soon as July and that, in her view, risks to the labor market could rise, while inflation appears to be on a sustained path toward the Fed’s 2% objective.
Her remarks echoed those from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said Friday that the central bank can lower interest rates as soon as next month, reiterating his view that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the central bank could resume rate cuts if the inflation hit from tariffs remains subdued, without weighing in on the exact timing of such a move.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. jumped after the electric-vehicle giant rolled out its long-promised driverless taxi service to a handful of riders.
* Novo Nordisk A/S scrapped a partnership with Hims & Hers Health Inc. after less than two months, saying the US company is using “deceptive marketing” to sell copycat versions of its obesity blockbuster Wegovy.
* Northern Trust Corp. said it plans to remain a standalone company following a report that Bank of New York Mellon Corp. approached it about a possible merger.
* Meta Platforms Inc.’s WhatsApp messaging platform has been added to a list of apps banned from government-issued devices for congressional staffers in the US House of Representatives, a move driven by concerns about the app’s data security.
* VSCO, the popular photo-editing and social media app, is planning to release its own camera software for iPhones, as it joins a growing wave of third-party developers offering an alternative to Apple Inc.’s own camera experience.
* Ford Motor Co. intensified its campaign to preserve clean energy manufacturing subsidies Monday, warning jobs at its electric-vehicle battery plant in southwestern Michigan could bem at risk if Republicans in Congress pare back tax credits in President Donald Trump’s multi-trillion-dollar economic package.
* Fiserv Inc. is lauching its own stablecoin and joining with both traditional and crypto payments firms PayPal Holdings Inc. and Circle Internet Group Inc. to develop products for financial institutions and merchants within the banking technology provider’s ecosystem.
* Residential real estate brokerage Compass Inc. sued ZillowGroup Inc., alleging that the home-search website is using “anticompetitive tactics” with its plan to restrict certain listings.
* Omnicom Group Inc., the third-largest US advertising agency, agreed to stop withholding online ads for political reasons to clear the way for federal antitrust regulators to approve the company’s $13.5 billion buyout of rival Interpublic Group.
* Spanish drugmaker Grifols SA paid a higher price to buy blood plasma from an entity linked to its controlling family than from third-party suppliers, according to a regulator’s findings submitted in a court case.
* Huawei Technologies Co.’s latest computer product is powered by a chip manufactured using years-old technology, suggesting US sanctions are still preventing China from developing cutting- edge semiconductor technologies.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1579
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3527
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.15 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.7% to $103,275.07
* Ether rose 5.8% to $2,314.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8% to $67.96 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,376.72 an ounce

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us. –J. R.R. Tolkien, 1892-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Summer solstice today – longest day of the year. 🔆
In summer, the song sings itself. –William Carlos Williams.

June 20, 1840: American inventor Samuel Morse patents the telegraph, revolutionizing long-distance communication.z
June 20, 1997: The tobacco industry agreed to a massive settlement in exchange for relief from mounting lawsuits and legal bills.  Go to article.

1948: Ed Sullivan show premieres.
1893: Lizzie Borden found not guilty.
Lillian Hellman, writer, b. 1905.
Errol Flynn, actor, b. 1909.
Chet Atkins, guitarist, b. 1924.Ann Murray, singer/songwriter, b. 1946.
Nicole Kidman, actress, b. 1967.

‘Sorry for what happened’
Golfer Wyndham Clark has expressed regret for his behavior last weekend at the US Open. The course at Oakmont Country Club frustrated many of the world’s best golfers.

A ‘life-changing’ raise
The Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders have received a 400% pay increase, according to the docuseries “America’s Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders.” Previously, many of the cheerleaders had to work second jobs just to make ends meet.

A ‘new star’ has exploded into the night sky — and you can see it from North America
The never-before-seen “nova,” dubbed V462 Lupi, recently appeared in the constellation Lupus, after suddenly becoming 4 million times brighter. The shining explosion is visible to the naked eye and can be seen from parts of North America. Read More.

How did Ramesses II die — and did his more than 100 children fight for the throne?
Ramesses II was around 90 years old when he died, an astonishing age for ancient Egypt. Read More.

SpaceX’s Starship explodes on Texas launch pad in ‘catastrophic failure’ during routine test
SpaceX’s Starship 36 underwent a “catastrophic failure” on the stand at its Texas launch site, but the latest setback is unlikely to dent the company’s ambitions. Read More.

We may finally know how Tylenol works — and it’s not how we thought
According to a new study in rats, a key byproduct of acetaminophen, called AM404, may block pain at the source before it has a chance to reach the brain. Read More.

Each year, tiny brown moths in Australia make a grueling 620-mile migration to escape the heat and huddle in cool caves. They rely on the night sky to find their way — just like humans and birds do.

Look, up in the sky!
An astrophotographer recently traveled to West Penwith, England, to witness the beauty of a truly dark night sky.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
A visitor attends the Yolŋu Power: The Art of Yirrkala exhibition at the Art Gallery of New South Wales
Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/EPA

Tokyo, Japan
People walk through artificial mist to cool down on a hot day
Photograph: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Week in wildlife:
Two baby roe deer play in the sun near Beeley, Derbyshire, UK
Photograph: Villager Jim/SWNS
Market Closes for June 20^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42206.82	+35.16
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5967.84	-13.03
		-0.22%
NASDAQ	19447.41	-98.86
		-0.51%
TSX	26497.57	-8.43
		-0.03%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38403.23	-85.11
		-0.22%
HANG SENG	23530.48	+292.74
		+1.26%
SENSEX	82408.17	+1046.30
		+1.29%
FTSE 100*	8774.65	-17.15
		-0.20%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.303	3.333
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.597	3.618
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3751	N.A
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8887	N.A

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7284	0.7301
US $	1.3728	1.3696

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5822	0.6320
US $	1.1526	0.8676

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3368.90	3391.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	75.14	N.A

Market Commentary
Save as much as you can and your investments will do better. -John E. Core.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 26,497.57 in Toronto.
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.2%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 4.6%.
Today, 126 of 217 shares fell, while 87 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.3%
* This month, the index rose 1.2%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on June 16, 2025 and 23.2% above its low on June 21, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.31% compared with 6.33% in the previous session and the average of 8.67% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -15.2718| -0.4| 13/35
Consumer Staples | -5.3051| -0.5| 3/7
Utilities | -2.0818| -0.2| 4/11
Energy | -1.7456| 0.0| 16/24
Industrials | -1.0746| 0.0| 12/16
Consumer Discretionary | -0.9063| -0.1| 3/7
Real Estate | -0.0100| 0.0| 11/7
Health Care | 0.7005| 1.1| 2/2
Communication Services | 1.6615| 0.3| 4/1
Information Technology | 7.4913| 0.3| 1/9
Financials | 8.3839| 0.1| 18/7
Couche-Tard | -4.5800| -1.2| 160.7| -12.2
CGI Inc | -4.4480| -2.1| 303.6| -8.1
Franco-Nevada | -2.7820| -0.9| 180.3| 35.1
Pembina Pipeline | 2.2400| 1.1| 260.2| -3.0
Bombardier | 2.5410| 4.0| 61.0| 13.4
Shopify | 21.5700| 1.8| 114.3| -4.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a second-straight small losses on Friday, weighed by concerns around a possible global trade war and Middle East tensions, and likely some profit taking after the index recently hit a record high.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 8.43 points to 26,497.57, staying near the June 12 record of 26,615.75.
Base Metals was the biggest loser among sectors, down near 1.5%.
The Battery Metals Index was down 1.3%, as most sectors closed .
No sector rose near 1%.
Rosenberg Research in a note published today looked at how the TSX did become one of the first to hit a new record and it noted that gold exposure helped.
Rosenberg Research’s Alp Erdogan and David Rosenberg on Friday looked at the reasons noted the TSX’s recent strength and the duo broke down the structural factors that helped the index bounce back “so strongly” from the April lows that followed President Trump’s imposition of global tariffs.
The pair remembered back to April 8, six days after Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ speech at the White House Rose Garden, when the TSX Composite closed at 22,506.90, an eight-month low.
From that trough, they said, it took the market only 17 trading days to wipe out the losses and go back to its pre-April 2 closing level.
They added: “What was more striking was the fact that this sharp bounce back unfolded against an unfavorable backdrop of murky macroeconomic fundamentals, tariff-induced uncertainty, and depressed oil prices.”
Despite a “flurry of twists and turns in the constantly evolving tariff saga”, Erdogan and Rosenberg said “a period of relative calm has ensued” after the chaos of tariff announcements and the early April market sell off, triggered by tariff fears.
As the third-largest trading partner of the United States, Canada has “fared relatively well” after being excluded from the Liberation Day tariffs and having USMCA-compliant products excluded from the 25% ‘fentanyl’ tariffs, they added.
Erdogan and Rosenberg cited CIBC Capital Markets when noting mining has accounted for approximately 40% of Canadian new issuances on a year to date basis.
Consequently, this strong price performance from the precious metals sector, comprising near 11% of the Composite Index, has “resulted in underweight generalist funds adding exposure”, they said.
“Additionally,” the duo said, “ongoing gold purchases by central banks and governments have continued to support gold prices and mining shares.
According to Goldman Sachs, global central banks are buying 80 metric tons of gold monthly, and sovereign wealth funds are collectively acquiring 1,000 tons annually — about a quarter of yearly global production.
We remind clients that these strategic market players are long-term investors who happen to be price-indiscriminate.”
For Rosenberg Research the bottom line is that “all-in, a confluence of fundamental factors” pushed the S&P/TSX Index to become one of the first global benchmarks to get back to its pre-Liberation Day levels.
Thus, it said, the Canadian benchmark has “benefitted from sectoral composition and a cyclical/value bent, an economically nationalistic trend that buoyed domestic retail, and a newly elected government with a pro-growth fiscal playbook”.
It noted global markets have added a new term to the investing lexicon: The Great White Long trade.
Canada’s market, the research noted, has unique characteristics compared to the United States in that it generates far greater dividend and earnings yields.
It said “the relative valuations in the Canadian stock market remain compelling: you get paid to take on equity risk when you compare the TSX to alternatives in cash and bonds”.
The same, they added, cannot be said for U.S. markets.
Rosenberg Research said its Strategizer model’s score card, at 39.8 for Canada, still compares favorably to the latest 28.4 grade in the U.S.
It added: “This gap (which is in the process of closing) may also have acted as a magnet for foreign flows into North America seeking a home that has decent value, exposure to gold, and generates superior yields.
Going forward, our in-house research strongly recommends continued exposure to the basic Materials, Financials, and Industrial sectors.”
Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research in a separate note on the economy said Canadian retail prices “continue on a disinflationary path”.
It noted today’s Canadian retail sales failed to meet expectations as the most cyclically sensitive sectors of the economy declined.
Canadian retail sales, the research noted, rose by 0.3% month over month in April, “a tad below” the consensus for a rise 0.4% MoM.
But just as was the case in March, much of that gain came from a sizable increase in motor vehicle sales , up 1.9% MoM, while retail sales excluding autos actually fell 0.3% on the month, coming in slightly below market expectations of 0.2% drop, the research said, before adding: “What was truly ominous was Statistics Canada’s flash estimate for May, which is showing a hefty 1.1% MoM drop.”
Perhaps, Rosenberg Research said, the “most key element” of the report was the deflation seen in the retail sales price index, coming down 0.2% MoM from the previous month. Thus, volume sales rose by 0.5% MoM.
Since the 2.4% YoY rise nearby January peak, the price deflator has now receded in each of the past three months and is rising at a “lame and tame” 1.6% annual pace, it noted.
According to Rosenberg, the “real build-in” for Q2 retail sales is now running at a rise of1.5%.
But it said that’s a pace it would expect to continue slowing throughout the quarter as labor market conditions continue to weaken and households keep pulling back on large spending in preparation for the unknowns.
“The inflationary pulse from tariffs are not all showing up in the data yet, but this rapid pace of disinflation should provide the Bank of Canada the confidence to make the pre-emptive cuts the economy needs,” it added.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate closed with a loss on Friday with traders lowering the commodity’s risk premium as Iran and Israel continue to trade attacks and concerns ease that the U.S. will enter the fighting.
In its last day as the active contract, WTI crude oil for July delivery fell $0.21 to expire at US$74.93 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down $1.94 to US$76.91.
Gold traded lower as traders returned to work following the Juneteenth holiday to weigh the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision to leave interest rates unchanged amid concerns tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will raise inflation.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $26.00 from Wednesday’s close to US$3,382.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A jittery week ended with losses in stocks as investors weighed geopolitical and trade developments, chipmakers sank while a $6.5 trillion options expiration spurred a surge in volume.
Bonds bounced as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said rates could drop as early as July.
Not even signs President Donald Trump is giving a chance to diplomacy in de-escalating the war between Israel and Iran were able to soothe nerves ahead of the weekend.
Equities also fell as the Financial Times reported Japan canceled a top-level meeting with the US as the Trump administration told Tokyo to spend more on defense.
A closely watched gauge of chipmakers slid almost 1% on a Wall Street Journal report the US may revoke waivers for allies with semiconductor plants in China.
Trump said two weeks is the maximum amount of time he will allow to pursue diplomacy with Iran.
While he did not clarify what action he is considering afterwards, the president noted that “maybe it won’t be necessary” for the US to get involved.
European officials emerged from talks with Iran Friday sounding hopeful that diplomacy will continue.
Waller reiterated his view that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived.
His comments on CNBC followed this week’s Fed decision to keep rates on hold for the fourth straight meeting.
Meantime, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told Reuters there’s no rush to cut rates amid tariff risks to inflation as the job market holds up.
Money markets slightly increased their bets on a September Fed reduction, with an October move remaining fully priced in.
Fed officials left interest rates unchanged Wednesday, as they have all year, as they seek to learn more about how President Donald Trump’s policies will affect the economy.
“The market is dealing with a lot presently, from geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty and questions about the Federal Reserve’s next move,” said Brian Buetel at UBS Wealth Management.
“While there are different risks on the horizon, stocks are a forward-looking barometer of economic growth, which we believe will hold up this year.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Meta Platforms Inc. held discussions with artificial intelligence search startup Perplexity AI Inc. about a possible takeover before moving ahead with a multibillion-dollar investment in Scale AI, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Tesla Inc. is set to open its first showrooms in India in July, people familiar with the discussions said, kicking off formal operations in the world’s third-biggest automobile market as the Elon Musk-led firm hunts for growth amid falling sales in Europe and China.
* Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI Corp. offered investors sweeter pricing on its $5 billion debt offering Friday, as Morgan Stanley wraps up commitments for the deal.
* Kroger Co.’s sales surpassed expectations during the latest quarter, a sign that consumers are still spending on groceries and other essentials despite economic turbulence.
* Darden Restaurants Inc. is considering “strategic alternatives” for its Bahama Breeze chain, Chief Executive Officer Rick Cardenas said.
* Aflac Inc. said a recent cybersecurity breach could have given intruders unauthorized access to customers’ personal information, including Social Security numbers, as well as health and claims data.
* QXO Inc. won’t raise its $5 billion offer for building products distributor GMS Inc. after Home Depot Inc. reportedly\ made its own bid.
* CarMax Inc. reported comparable sales and earnings per share that beat consensus estimates.
* Accenture Plc reported results and gave an outlook. Analysts highlighted bookings as a weak spot of the print.
* SoftBank Group Corp. founder Masayoshi Son is seeking to team up with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to realize what could be his biggest bet yet — a trillion-dollar industrial complex in Arizona to build robots and artificial intelligence.
* Temu’s sales decline in the US is deepening as the online marketplace drastically cuts spending on advertising targeting American consumers, signaling a shift in focus after President Donald Trump’s tariff barrage.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1516
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3445
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 146.20 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $103,406.76
* Ether fell 3.6% to $2,418.77
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $74.93 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,365.51 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Truth alone will endure; all the rest will be swept away before the tide of time. –Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.   Juneteenth today in the US.   Last day of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere – tomorrow is the official first day of summer.

June 19, 1910: The first Father’s Day is celebrated in Spokane, Washington, marking the beginning of the annual tradition honoring fathers.
June 19, 1964: The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was approved after an 83-day filibuster in the U.S. Senate.  Go to article.

Blaise Pascal, philosopher, b. 1623.
Elbert Hubbard, writer, b. 1856.
Salmon Rushdie, writer, b. 1947.
Aung San Sun Kyi, peace activist, b. 1945.

A $10 billion basketball deal
In what is believed to be the most lucrative deal for a professional sports team, the Buss family has reportedly agreed to sell majority ownership of the Los Angeles Lakers to LA Dodgers owner Mark Walter.

Satellite coated in ultra-dark ‘Vantablack’ paint will launch into space next year to help combat major issue
Researchers from the U.K. plan to launch a CubeSat covered with a newly formulated “hull-darkening” Vantablack paint into space next year. If successful, the coating could help mitigate light pollution from private satellite “mega constellations.” Read More.

1 psychedelic psilocybin dose eases depression for years, study reveals
Half a decade after receiving a psychedelic treatment for depression, two-thirds of patients in a new study remained in remission. Read More.

China pits rival humanoids against each other in world’s first ‘robot boxing tournament’
Unitree’s combat robots can punch and kick while keeping their balance, but they are controlled by humans — for now. Read More.

Ancient ‘Dragon Man’ skull from China isn’t what we thought
Scientists have determined that a giant skull from an ancient human relative named the “Dragon Man” is actually Denisovan. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Beijing, China
A woman poses for a picture next to the character Mokoko as she visits Pop Mart’s theme park Pop Land
Photograph: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images

Ascot, England
Racegoers queue to enter Royal Ascot
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Lục Ngạn, Vietnam
Farmers transport harvested lychees to sell to traders at a wholesale market
Photograph: Nhac Nguyen/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 19^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	Market Closed	N.A
S&P 500	Market Closed	N.A
NASDAQ	Market Closed	N.A
TSX	26506.00	-53.85
		-0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38488.34	-396.81
		-1.02%
HANG SENG	23237.74	-472.95
		-1.99%
SENSEX	81361.87	-82.79
		-0.10%
FTSE 100*	8791.80	-51.67
		-0.58%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.333	3.336
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.618	3.630
U.S. 10 Year Bond	N.A	4.3909
U.S. 30 Year Bond	N.A	4.8887

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7301	0.7302
US $	1.3696	1.3694

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5765	0.6343
US $	1.1510	0.8688

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3391.50	3388.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	N.A	75.14

Market Commentary:
Never buy a stock immediately after a substantial rise or sell one immediately after a substantial fall. –Ben Graham, 1894-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 26,506.00 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.1%.
Capstone Copper Corp. had the largest drop, falling 3.8%.
Today, 116 of 217 shares fell, while 94 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.4%
* So far this week, the index was unchanged
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on June 16, 2025 and 23.3% above its low on June 19, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.27t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.33% compared with 6.25% in the previous session and the average of 8.77% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -25.8765| -0.7| 7/41
Information Technology | -18.2770| -0.7| 6/4
Financials | -9.7685| -0.1| 10/14
Consumer Discretionary | -4.5142| -0.5| 2/8
Real Estate | -1.1084| -0.2| 7/10
Utilities | -0.7231| -0.1| 4/10
Health Care | -0.3741| -0.6| 1/2
Consumer Staples | 0.0059| 0.0| 4/6
Communication Services | 0.0376| 0.0| 3/2
Industrials | 2.5678| 0.1| 18/10
Energy | 4.3392| 0.1| 32/9
Shopify | -13.3800| -1.1| -73.4| -6.1
Constellation Software | -7.6010| -1.1| -78.9| 9.5
Bank of Montreal | -6.6450| -0.9| -42.4| 3.4
Empire Co | 2.6320| 5.3| -9.3| 24.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 3.1430| 0.4| -49.7| 6.0
CIBC | 5.2210| 0.8| -39.3| 4.0
US
US markets closed for Juneteenth commemoration.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Anyone can carry his burden, however hard, until nightfall. Anyone can do his work, however hard, for one day. Anyone can live sweetly, patiently, lovingly, purely, till the sun goes down. And this is all life really means. –Robert Louis Stevenson, 1850-1894.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 18, 1812:  Declaration of the War of 1812.
June 18, 1948: Columbia Records unveiled its new long-playing, 33 1/3 rpm phonograph record. Go to article.
June 18, 1983: First US woman is space, Sally Ride.

Paul McCartney, musician, b. 1942.
Roger Ebert, critic, b. 1942.
Isabella Rossellini, actress, b. 1952.

Top Hollywood honors
The organization behind the Academy Awards has decided to give honorary Oscars to Tom Cruise, Dolly Parton, Debbie Allen and Wynn Thomas for their contributions to cinema and humanity.

We have a new winner
Vienna is no longer the most livable city in the world. After a three-year run at the top of the annual list from the Economic Intelligence Unit, the Austrian capital was surpassed by another “wonderful” place.

‘Artificial intelligence is not a miracle cure’: Nobel laureate raises questions about AI-generated image of black hole spinning at the heart of our galaxy
Researchers have used an AI model to create a new image of the black hole at the center of our galaxy. But some experts are skeptical of the results. Read More.

Industrial waste is turning into a new type of rock at ‘unprecedented’ speed, new study finds
Samples from slag cliffs in England reveal industrial waste products can turn into rock in less than four decades, challenging assumptions about how rocks form. Read More.

James Webb telescope spots tiny galaxies that may have transformed the universe
The James Webb Space Telescope has revealed dozens of tiny, distant galaxies piercing the fog of the cosmic dark age in the first billion years after the Big Bang. Read More.

Mysterious deep-space radio signals reveal location of the universe’s ‘missing matter’
Much of the universe’s regular “baryonic” matter is spread through intergalactic space and in diffuse halos around galaxies, researchers proposed after studying the behavior of fast radio bursts emitted from deep space. Read More.

Hurricanes and sandstorms can be forecast 5,000 times faster thanks to new Microsoft AI model
Microsoft’s Aurora AI beat existing systems in predicting weather conditions over a 14-day period in 91% of cases, including hurricanes, sandstorms and ocean swells. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ascot, UK
Racegoers arrive on the second day of the Royal Ascot horse racing meeting
Photograph: John Walton/PA

Chongqing, China
A drone light show sets a new Guinness World Record for the largest aerial image formed by 11,787 drones
Photograph: Li Hongbo/VCG/Getty Images

Ankara, Turkey
An Anatolian ground squirrel forages on the steppes
Photograph: Harun Ozalp/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 18^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42171.66	-44.14
		-0.10%
S&P 500	5980.87	-1.85
		-0.03%
NASDAQ	19546.27	+25.18
		+0.13%
TSX	26559.85	+18.46
		+0.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38885.15	+348.41
		+0.90%
HANG SENG	23710.69	-269.61
		-1.12%
SENSEX	81444.66	-138.64
		-0.17%
FTSE 100*	8843.47	+9.44
		+0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.336	3.368
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.630	3.668
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3909	4.3888
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8887	4.8907

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7302	0.7308
US $	1.3694	1.3683

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5720	0.6361
US $	1.1481	0.8710

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3388.45	3397.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	75.14	74.84

Market Commentary:
I risk, therefore I am. -Marsh insurance-broker advertising slogan, 2007.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 26,559.85 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain,increasing 3.0%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest increase, rising 8.5%.
Today, 109 of 217 shares rose, while 99 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.6%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 16, 2025 and 23.6% above its low on June 19, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.27t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.25% compared with 6.46% in the previous session and the average of 8.88% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 46.7251| 0.5| 15/8
Information Technology | 17.5715| 0.7| 8/2
Industrials | 7.1665| 0.2| 20/8
Real Estate | 2.3582| 0.5| 16/2
Communication Services | 1.8002| 0.3| 3/2
Health Care | 1.2746| 1.9| 2/2
Consumer Staples | -0.3923| 0.0| 7/2
Utilities | -3.8664| -0.4| 5/9
Materials | -4.8363| -0.1| 19/29
Consumer Discretionary | -6.1108| -0.7| 5/4
Energy | -43.2493| -1.0| 9/31
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange recorded a modest gain on Wednesday, despite continuing tariff uncertainties and growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as Rosenberg Research sees “continuing strength” in Canada’s Aerospace and Defense sector and Scotiabank sees Canada’s energy sector benefiting from a “power shift” that reflects the nation’s “rising role in global energy resilience.”
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 18.46 points at 26,559.85, leaving it less than 60 points behind the record close hit on June 12.
Among sectors, most were higher, led by Health Care, up near 2.2%.
The Battery Metals Index and Energy sectors were the biggest losers, both down about 1%.
On sectors, Rosenberg Research said it sees “continuing strength” in the Aerospace and Defense sector across countries, including Canada, as geopolitical risk and new technologies send military budgets upward.
It added: “The aerospace/defense theme has gone global and the bullish case keeps getting stronger.
Military budgets are expanding sharply worldwide, and industry backlogs and production schedules are in acceleration mode.
Few, if any industries, are experiencing such earnings visibility and positive re-rating of growth prospects, alongside the adaptation of new military technologies (especially related to cyber security and the escalating global war in space).
In fact, it is becoming increasingly difficult to differentiate between these aerospace-defense companies and the technology sector at large, except that the former trades at far more compelling valuations.
This remains one of our highest-conviction investment themes.
“Of commodities today, gold prices fell late afternoon on Wednesday, as the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee ended with interest rates unchanged, as expected.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$23.80 to US$3,383.10 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at to a five-month high as Israel and Iran continue an air war while the Trump Administration ponders entering the conflict in order to destroy Iran’s nuclear-weapons program.
WTI oil for Julydelivery closed up $0.30 to settle at US$75.15 per barrel, the highest sinceJan.21, while August Brent crude was last seen up $0.10 to US$76.55.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in stocks fizzled out after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariff-driven economic uncertainty and inflation risk continued to complicate the central bank’s bid to ease monetary policy in earnest.
Gains in bonds waned.
The dollar barely budged.
Equities closed little changed, with the S&P 500 ending below 6,000 after briefly crossing that mark.
Powell noted that increases in tariffs are likely to boost prices, while adding that the effects on inflation could be more persistent.
He also declined to say if he’ll stay on after his term ends.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, almost erased a decline that had earlier reached seven basis points.
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady – coupled with Powell’s latest warning on tariffs – underscores the delicate balance facing policymakers guiding the economy toward continued economic expansion.
While officials continued to pencil in two rate cuts in 2025, they also downgraded their estimates for economic growth this year while lifting their forecasts for unemployment and inflation.
“Powell played it safe,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital in Chicago.
“They’re sticking to two cuts for now, but clearly rattled by tariffs and sticky inflation.  No urgency to move.
It’s a tough spot: growth slowing, inflation lingering, and geopolitical risk heating up.”
Traders also kept a very close eye on geopolitics, with President Donald Trump saying he’d hold another meeting Wednesday to discuss the conflict in the Middle East.
Asked earlier in the day if he was moving closer to bombing Iran, Trump said “I may do it.  I may not do it.”
“They are clearly in wait-and-see mode,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“They are sitting on their hands, waiting to see if tariffs increase inflation or the jobs market starts to falter, and whichever part of their dual mandate is impacted first will likely guide whichever direction they take.”
While the median expectation for two rate cuts in 2025 didn’t change, a number of officials lowered their projections.
Seven officials now foresee no rate cuts this year, compared with four in March. Two others pointed to one cut this year.
“Much like the tariff talk, the Fed has pivoted to a more of a kick the can down the road narrative as uncertainty may have diminished, but it’s still elevated according to their terms,” said Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets.
“Overall, the Fed’ss dual mandate is still in question. Expect them to go ‘one meeting at a time’ until there is more certainty with tariffs.”
To Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management, the Fed’s decision to keep 50 basis points of cuts for this year despite the higher inflation outlook is somewhat surprising.
“Yet, any change in this year’s dot plot would have been interpreted as a signal that the Fed has a clear plan about its future policy path, when actually the likely truth is that, with the economic outlook still very much shrouded in uncertainty, the Fed is unsure of how things will pan out,” she said.
Shah expects the Fed will ultimately remain on hold until the fourth quarter, with just one 25 basis-point cut this year.
At Strategas, Don Rissmiller says that with inflation likely to pick up over the summer, the next opportunity to cut rates could be in fact in the fourth quarter.
“The Fed does not want to move preemptively given how fluid the US economic situation still is,” said Rissmiller.
“Pausing a while longer would buy additional time to see the effects of recent shocks.”
To Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, solid economic footing will allow the Fed to remain patient and away greater clarity before cutting interest rates.
“Markets will need to be patient as we await incoming data that will reveal the extent to which tariffs will drive higher inflation and slower growth,” she said.

Corporate Highlights:
* The top US bank regulators plan to reduce a key capital buffer by up to 1.5 percentage points for the biggest lenders after concerns that it constrained their trading in the Treasuries market.
** The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency are focusing on what’s known as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, according to people briefed on the discussions. This rule applies to the largest US banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.
* Nippon Steel Corp. closed its $14.1 billion acquisition of United States Steel Corp., bringing an end to a bruising takeover battle that was embroiled in American politics for months until finally gaining support from US President Donald Trump.
* US safety investigators called for urgent actions to be taken in response to an engine issue on Boeing Co. 737 Max aircraft that can lead to smoke in the cockpit or cabin.
* Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s plan for America’s vaccines is coming into focus, with his revamped immunization advisory panel set to discuss the use of measles shots in kids next week and vote on an ingredient that’s been wrongly linked to autism.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo has applied for a permit to test its robotaxis in New York City, underscoring its intent to operate in one of the largest ride-hailing markets in the US despite an absence of local regulations supporting commercially operated autonomous vehicles.
* Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. slipped amid continued worries about the impact of stablecoins on credit-card issuers.
* Kellanova fell after a report from Reuters that European Union regulators are opening an investigation into Mars Inc.’s acquisition of the maker of Pop-Tarts and Eggo waffles.
* Ford Motor Co. has instructed its dealers to stop selling the electric Mustang Mach-e because a software defect could lock the doors, potentially trapping occupants inside.
* Texas Instruments Inc. touted plans to spend more than $60 billion on semiconductor plants in the US, making it the latest chipmaker to promote its domestic manufacturing ambitions as the Trump administration urges investments and threatens to upend the sector with tariffs.
* Intel Corp. named new engineering leadership as part of a turnaround effort under Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan, tapping veterans of Cadence Design Systems Inc., Apple Inc. and Google.
* OpenAI is phasing out the work it does with data-labeling startup Scale AI, cutting ties with the company days after Meta Platforms Inc. invested billions of dollars in it and hired its founder.
* Nike Inc.’s new brand with entrepreneur and reality TV star Kim Kardashian’s Skims label has pushed back its launch after initially planning to release its first collection this spring.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1477
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3413
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 145.15 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $103,952.39
* Ether fell 0.6% to $2,497.55
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,367.61 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Destiny is not a matter of chance, it is a matter of choice: it is not a thing to be waited for,
it is a thing to be achieved. –William Jennings Bryant, 1860-1925.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 17, 1885: the Statue of Liberty arrives in New York, a gift from France that becomes one of the most iconic symbols of the United States.
June 17, 1928: Amelia Earhart embarked on the first trans-Atlantic flight by a woman.
June 17, 1972: Watergate arrests.

John Wesley, founder of Methodism, b. 1703.
Igor Stravinsky, composer, b. 1882.
M.C. Escher, artist, b. 1898.
Venus Williams, tennis player, b. 1980.

Record-breaker
Two-time Olympic gold medalist Mondo Duplantis has broken the pole vault world record for the 12th time.

Stand up guys
Actor Al Pacino and film producer Andrea Iervolino (“Maserati: The Brothers”) recently met with Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican. Iervolino described the meeting as “a moment of profound spiritual and cultural inspiration.”

Good eats
The 2025 James Beard Awards were announced on Monday night. Outstanding restaurant honors went to eateries in Minneapolis, Minnesota and Boulder, Colorado.

Viking Age woman was buried with her dog in an elaborate ‘boat grave,’ excavations reveal
Researchers think the Viking Age boat burial of a woman and her pooch in Norway dates to between A.D. 900 and 950. Read More.

Enslaved Africans led a decade-long rebellion 1,200 years ago in Iraq, new evidence suggests
The Zanj, enslaved people largely from Africa, rebelled at the same time they were ordered to build a massive system of canals in what is now Iraq, a new study finds. Read More.

James Webb telescope ups the odds that ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in 2032
The James Webb Space Telescope has taken another look at the potential “city-killer” asteroid 2024 YR4 and found its chances of hitting the moon in December 2032 have increased to 4.3%. Read More.

People can be identified by their breathing patterns with 97% accuracy
Breathing patterns among humans are so unique that they can work as an identification tool, scientists report. They propose someday using breath as a way to diagnose disease. Read More.

This EV battery fully recharges in just 18 seconds — and it just got the green light for mass production
The British VarEVolt battery has been granted the certification needed so it can be manufactured on a large scale, meaning more EV makers can use them in their cars. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nestor’s Cave, Peloponnese, Greece
‘Descending from the old Navarino Castle, I came across the cavernous cave reputed to be the tomb of the mythical king Nestor. The view out looks down on to an almost perfect horseshoe bay called Voidokilia Beach.’
Photograph: Jan G Bek

Easter Island, Chile
‘Moai statues in the quarry that were never transported to the platforms.’
Photograph: Daniel Alvarez

Harold Hill, London
‘A bundle of Egyptian goslings having a rest in Dagnam Park’
Photograph: Ursula Armstrong
Market Closes for June 17^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42215.80	-299.29
		-0.70%
S&P 500	5982.72	-50.39
		-0.84%
NASDAQ	19521.09	-180.12
		-0.91%
TSX	26541.39	-27.22
		-0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38536.74	+225.41
		+0.59%
HANG SENG	23980.30	-80.69
		-0.34%
SENSEX	81583.30	-212.85
		-0.26%
FTSE 100*	8834.03	-41.19
		-0.46%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.368	3.399
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.668	3.688
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3888	4.4462
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8907	4.9552

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7308	0.7361
US $	1.3683	1.3585

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5713	0.6364
US $	1.1479	0.8711

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3397.60	3435.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	74.84	72.98

Market Commentary:
Knowledge of Financial History is critical to successful investing. –Larry Swedroe.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 26,541.39 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.2%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.6%.
Today, 117 of 217 shares fell, while 98 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.5%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 16, 2025 and 23.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.27t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.46% compared with 6.40% in the previous session and the average of 9.01% over the past month

Index Points
Industrials | -24.5794| -0.8| 9/19
Financials | -19.8448| -0.2| 7/18
Information Technology | -11.2576| -0.4| 3/7
Communication Services | -5.5431| -0.9| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -3.1884| -0.3| 4/6
Materials | -2.4605| -0.1| 27/23
Real Estate | -1.7774| -0.4| 3/14
Utilities | -1.0528| -0.1| 6/9
Health Care | -0.5249| -0.8| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | 1.0981| 0.1| 3/7
Energy | 41.9212| 1.0| 34/7
Shopify | -14.4100| -1.2| -31.1| -5.0
Canadian National | -11.4400| -2.1| 7.2| -4.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -10.1500| -1.4| -10.3| 5.0
Celestica | 5.2750| 3.7| -11.5| 36.1
Suncor | 6.8090| 1.4| -38.5| 9.1
Canadian Natural Resources | 17.5400| 2.6| 52.5| 4.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a modest loss on Tuesday as investors monitor developments on global trade at the G7 Summit in Alberta, even following the early departure U.S. President Donald Trump and events in the Middle East as Israel and Iran trade attacks for a fifth day.
Stock pickers are also likely digesting today’s commentary from the Bank of Canada around interest rates, with more expected to come on this from Governor Tiff Macklem himself tomorrow.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 27.22 points to 26,541.39, within a 100 points of the record close of 26,615.75 set on on June 12.
Among sectors, most were lower, with Health Care easily down the most at 2.3%.
Energy was the biggest gainer, up 1.7%.
Within the Energy sector, MEG Energy (MEG.TO) closed up 0.9% even as an expert said the oil-sands producer may struggle to find another buyer after the company urged its shareholders to reject a takeover proposal from rival Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO) on Monday.
“The ‘go it alone’ approach seems very implausible because the market didn’t like that approach before the offer,” Cole Smead, chief executive and portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management, told BNN Bloomberg in a Tuesday interview.
“(Investors) were effectively trading MEG like they had something wrong … their capital allocation overall we don’t disagree with and we think the management did a really good job.
The difference though is they don’t have an anchor shareholder, a large capital allocator like Adam Waterous.”
National Bank of Canada in its Monthly Economic Monitor for June said given the recent “lull” in global trade tensions it has revised its global GDP growth forecasts slightly upward for this year to 2.9% from 2.8%, and to 3.0% from $2.9% in 2026, reflecting a slightly more buoyant growth trajectory in the United States and the eurozone.
“The last few weeks have been a little less eventful on the international trade front, but that hasn’t stopped protectionist policies from having a significant impact on the global economy,: the bank noted.
“Fearing that they will have to pay more for their inputs in the future, many U.S. companies indeed have chosen to bring forward their orders from abroad.
This has not only helped to boost global manufacturing output, but has also led to the strongest annual increase in trade volumes since 2011, excluding the post-pandemic rebound.”
However, National Bank emphasized that the risks to this scenario remain tilted to the downside.
“Among these, two seem particularly important to us.
The first relates to a possible resurgence of trade tensions.
The second concerns a potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which would lead to a significant rise in oil prices.”
Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed up 4.3% on concerns the conflict between Israel and Iran could disrupt oil supply from the Persian Gulf even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global inventories are continuing to rise. WTI oil for July delivery closed up $3.07 to settle at US$74.84 per barrel, the highest since Jan.21, while August Brent crude was last seen up $3.38 to US$76.61.
But gold futures were down for a second day late afternoon on Tuesday as the dollar rose after U.S. retail sales fell more than expected last month, while the Federal Reserve’s policy committee begins its two-day meeting that is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Gold for August delivery was last seen down $13.30 to US$3,404.00 per ounce.
Bank of Canada officials debated cutting rates by 25 basis points in June, but were ultimately dissuaded by the “firmness” in economic activity and elevated inflation, noted Tiago Figueiredo over at Desjardins on Tuesday after the release of the BoC’s Summary of Deliberations, a summary of monetary policy deliberations by the Governing Council for the policy decision that was announced two weeks earlier.
The Governing Council, Figueiredo noted, “didn’t close the door to further rate cuts”.
He said: “While they will likely need to be see some progress on core inflation, the possibility of a trade deal with the US could leave central bankers more forward looking at their upcoming rate decision.
Assuming the economy continues to operate with considerable slack, a more forward looking reaction function would allow policymakers to look through some of the stickiness in the core inflation measures.”
Investors will look for more details around the BoC’s thinking on rates tomorrow when Governor Macklem speaks tomorrow to the St. John’s Board of Trade, Newfoundland and Labrador.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s concerns that an escalation of tensions in the Middle East could trigger a more direct US involvement spurred a slide in stocks, which also dropped as weak economic data lifted bonds ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
Oil hit its highest since January.
Risk-off sentiment prevailed, with the S&P 500 down nearly 1%.
West Texas Intermediate settled around $75 a barrel.
A gauge of crude-market volatility jumped to a three-year high.
The dollar climbed the most in a month.
Aside from geopolitical risks, Treasuries rose as tepid reports on retail sales, housing and industrial output supported bets the Fed will cut rates at least once more in 2025 if energy prices don’t become a threat to the disinflationary path.
President Donald Trump met with his national security team to discuss the escalating Middle East conflict, according to people familiar with the matter, fueling fresh speculation that the US is on the verge of joining Israel’s attack on Iran.
Trump posted a demand for Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and warned of a possible strike against the country’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding.
He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,” Trump said on social media.
“For now, markets will remain mostly on edge until they lower the temperature in the region,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth.
Traders also kept a close eye on economic data, with US retail sales down for a second straight month, suggesting anxiety over tariffs and their finances prompted consumers to pull back after an early-year spending rush.
Industrial production dropped and confidence among homebuilders hit the lowest since December 2022.
“Investors should still expect some volatility in economic data due to lingering effects of trade policy,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“The economy and the consumer are holding up for now, but there are signs of vulnerability.
That could present risks in the second half of the year — particularly if we see a further slowdown in jobs or spending.”
With US central bank officials convening for a two-day meeting in Washington, traders continued to wager on just shy of two quarter-point rate reductions this year — with the first move fully priced in for October.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in June and July, but may telegraph its intentions via revised economic and rate forecasts on Wednesday.
A fourth straight meeting without a cut could provoke another tirade from President Trump.
But policymakers have been clear: Before they can make a move they need the White House to resolve the big question marks around tariffs, immigration and taxes.
Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear sites have also introduced another element of uncertainty for the global economy.
“The Federal Reserve is navigating a narrow path,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“We expect the Fed to wait until the fourth quarter before it reduces policy rates.”
“While there has been a strong buy-the-dip mentality with investors having been rewarded for fading negative news this year, we think it’s best to pull back on risk,” said Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of global market intelligence, who correctly predicted a multi-week stock rally back in April through this point.
“Positioning indicates that irrespective of Israel-Iran, the market was setting up for a pullback,” he told clients this week.
Global stocks will beat US equities over the next five years, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund manager survey, adding evidence that investors increasingly see America’s market dominance as coming to an end.
Some 54% of asset managers expect international stocks to be the top asset class, while 23% picked US stocks, according to the survey.
Only 13% said gold will deliver top returns, and 5% are betting on bonds.
It’s the first time that Bank of America’s survey asked investors to predict which asset class will performbest over a five-year horizon.

Corporate Highlights:
* India’s aviation safety regulator found no major safety concerns with Air India’s fleet of Boeing Co. 787 jets during  ongoing inspections following a crash last week.
* Solar companies fell sharply after Senate Republicans released a bill that would end clean energy tax credits earlier than expected, dashing hopes that major cuts passed by the House wouldn’t stick.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. will launch a pilot for a token called JPMD that represents dollar deposits at the world’s biggest bank, as financial institutions deepen their push into the digital-asset sector.
* Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to buy gene-editing biotech company Verve Therapeutics Inc. for $1.3 billion, the drugmaker’s latest investment in an experimental medicine that could fuel its long- term growth.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. is cutting commissions for brokers on some Medicare Advantage plans, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News, a move that appears designed to discourage agents from selling those plans.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. plans to hasten cost cuts by eliminating some flights, ending service to a number of cities and restructuring its leadership ranks as economic uncertainty feeds weaker-than-expected demand for travel, the company said in an internal memo.
* Builder Lennar Corp.’s forecast for quarterly orders missed analyst estimates as affordability challenges and economic uncertainty hold back buyers.
* Salesforce Inc. is increasing the price for many products, becoming the latest software maker to adjust its cost structure as it integrates artificial intelligence.
* Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy says he expects the company’s workforce to decline in the next few years as the retail and cloud-computing giant uses artificial intelligence to handle more tasks.
* Adobe Inc. released a standalone Firefly mobile application for Android and iOS in an attempt to put a larger spotlight on its artificial intelligence-powered image generation and editing tools.
* Penn Entertainment Inc. said its shareholders elected two new directors proposed by HG Vora Capital Management to its board at the company’s annual meeting Tuesday.
* SoftBank Group Corp. raised around $4.8 billion through a sale of T-Mobile US Inc. shares, a move that helps fund the Japanese company’s grandiose plans for artificial intelligence.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1485
* The British pound fell 1.1% to $1.3426
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 145.22 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.8% to $104,712.11
* Ether fell 5.3% to $2,529
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.4% to $74.92 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
As a matter of self-preservation, a man needs good friends or ardent enemies, for the former instruct him and the latter take him to task. –Diogenes, c. 413 BCE-c. 323 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
We soldier on…

June 16, 1215: Following a revolt by the nobility, King John seals Magna Carta, a tereaty guaranteeing feudal rights and laying early foundations for English democracy.
June 16, 1903:  Ford Motor Co. was incorporated.  Go to article.

Katharine Graham, publisher, b. 1917
Joyce Carol Oates, writer, b. 1938.

James Webb telescope discovers ‘a new kind of climate’ on Pluto, unlike anything else in our solar system
New James Webb Space Telescope data reveal Pluto’s high-altitude haze is a key driver of the climate on the dwarf planet, offering clues to Earth’s ancient atmosphere. Read More.

1,000-year-old Viking Age hoard has a pendant that may be a cross or Thor’s hammer
A metal detectorist in Germany has unearthed an Early Middle Ages hoard that contains 200 artifacts, including a pendant that may be a cross or an unfinished Thor’s hammer. Read More.

Groundwater in the Colorado River basin won’t run out — but eventually we won’t be able to get at it, scientists warn
The Colorado River basin has lost a Lake Mead’s worth of water in the last 20 years — and scientists say we’re passing a “critical point” where pumping groundwater
will become too expensive. Read More.

Good day, Sirs.
Former England football captain David Beckham, Oscar-winning actor Gary Oldman and The Who frontman Roger Daltrey have been awarded knighthoods.

J.J. Spaun wins US Open
The 34-year-old golfer defeated his opponents, Mother Nature and the brutal course at the Oakmont Country Club to win the 125th US Open championship.

Ice age ‘puppies’ are not what they seem
New research shows that the two 14,000-year-old mummified “puppies” found in Northern Siberia may not be dogs at all.

Toothless on top
“An insatiable appetite for PG-rated family fare” helped another live-action remake fly to the top of the movie box office this weekend.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Warwickshire, UK
People row on the River Avon near Warwick Castle
Photograph: Jacob King/PA

Aarau, Switzerland
The peloton at the start of stage two of the 88th Tour de Suisse
Photograph: Tim de Waele/Getty Images

Chanthaburi, Thailand
A dancer plays with fire on Chao Lao beach
Photograph: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters
Market Closes for June 16^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42515.09	+317.30
		+0.75%
S&P 500	6033.11	+56.14
		+0.94%
NASDAQ	19701.21	+294.38
		+1.52%
TSX	26568.61	+64.26
		+0.24%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38311.33	+477.08
		+1.26%
HANG SENG	24060.99	+168.43
		+0.70%
SENSEX	81796.15	+677.55
		+0.84%
FTSE 100*	8875.22	+24.59
		+0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.399	3.371
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.688	3.660
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4462	4.3987
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9552	4.8938

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7369	0.7361
US $	1.3570	1.3585

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5683	0.6376
US $	1.1558	0.8652

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3435.35	3391.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.98	72.98

Market Commentary:
Money may be the husk of things, but not the kernel.  It gives you food, but not appetite.  Medicine, but not health.  Acquaintances, but not friends.  Servants, but not faithfulness.  Days of joy, but not peace or happiness. –Henrik Ibsen, 1828-1906.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 26,568.61 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 13.0%.
Today, 107 of 217 shares rose, while 105 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.6%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.8% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.40% compared with 6.59% in the previous session and the average of 9.76% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 56.3547| 0.7| 21/4
Information Technology | 40.7639| 1.6| 8/2
Industrials | 15.6297| 0.5| 22/6
Consumer Discretionary | 2.3005| 0.3| 8/2
Real Estate | -0.2961| -0.1| 8/9
Health Care | -0.4749| -0.7| 2/2
Utilities | -1.4359| -0.1| 6/7
Communication Services | -2.4346| -0.4| 3/2
Consumer Staples | -5.5578| -0.5| 2/8
Materials | -10.3544| -0.3| 13/37
Energy | -30.2402| -0.7| 14/26
Shopify | 33.1600| 2.7| -16.2| -3.9
RBC | 14.2800| 0.8| -7.9| 1.0
Cameco | 11.1100| 4.0| 31.3| 27.4
Waste Connections | -9.2670| -2.0| 37.6| 3.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.7300| -1.4| 112.4| 1.9
Enbridge | -14.6700| -1.5| 38.7| 2.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a gain on Monday after Friday’s dip from a day-prior record close, as President Donald Trump on the first day of this year’s G7 summit at an Alberta mountain resort, said he believes the United States and Canada can “work something out” to prevent an all-out trade war between the nations.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 64.26 points to 26,568.61.
Gains on the resources heavy index were likely capped as commodity prices moved off recent high levels, even as BMO Capital Markets did publish a note recapping what happened in Q1, and since, with Canada’s oil and gas exploration and production companies and referred to an “encouraging start” to 2025.
Among sectors, Base Metals and Information Technology were the biggest gainers, up 2.39% and 1.25%, respectively, followed by Financials, up 0.65%.
The biggest decliner was Energy, down 0.85%.
Boosting sentiment, Trump began the summit wearing a Canada-U.S. pin on his suit, an indication that he is, at least for now, dropping his talk of annexation and threats to Canadian sovereignty.
Also, Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Canada-U.S. Trade on CBC TV just before the close of trade said he and his team met their U.S. counterparts and had agreed to continue talking about trade issues and meet again later this week.
“I remain confident that we are making significant progress,” he added.
Of commodities, gold fell off a record high, even as the dollar dropped, with safe-haven buying having eased amid low expectations that the Israel and Iran spat will lead to a wider conflict in the Middle East.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $46.80 to US$3,406.000 per ounce, after rising to a record US$3,452.80 on Friday.
Not helping sentiment around the gold sector, earlier today, a Mali court ordered that Barrick Mining’s (ABX.TO) Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex be placed under temporary administration for six months.
Mali’s junta government will appoint Soumana Makadji, a former health minister, as the provisional administrator.
Barrick, which closed down, has said that it will appeal the decision.
National Bank said it believes a resolution in Mali without significant reduction in the overall ownership level and/or advancement of development at Reko Diq without significant disruptions/cost escalation are required to support an improved near-term outlook and associated multiple expansion for Barrick.
“The headlines today suggest progress in Mali remains a challenge and until the market has improved clarity in a resolution, we suspect the current valuation discount to peers will persist,” it added.
With oil, West Texas Intermediate crude fell off a four-month high as Israel and Iran traded blows for a fourth day but showed no appetite for disrupting shipments from the Persian Gulf.
WTI oi for July delivery closed down $1.21 to settle at US$71.77 per barrel after touching US$77.49 in overnight trade, while August Brent crude was last seen down $1.08 to US$73.15.
Still, the bottom line for BMO Capital Markets is the Canadian oil and gas sector reported better than expected first-quarter results, even as group performance “remained challenging” amid falling crude oil prices following ‘Liberation Day’, when Trump rolled out a plethora of tariffs that he promised would strengthen the U.S. position of the U.S. in global trade, and OPEC+ production increases.
BMO said this has led to reduced 2025 cash flow per share estimates across most of its Canadian coverage.
But despite weaker oil prices, the bank added most companies maintained their capital programs, showcasing “robust” balance sheets and “capital-efficient” operations.
BMO noted oil prices have since rebounded due to geopolitical risk while Henry Hub natural-gas prices have remained strong.
In Canada, BMO also noted, the Alberta gas trading price, AECO “C” spot, remained disconnected from other benchmarks, as the market waits for LNG Canada Phase 1 to solve the supply overhang.
At the current strip, BMO projects its coverage group (excluding restricted names) will generate approximately $28.4 billion (8.4% yield) in free cash flow in 2025 and roughly $27.6 billion (8.4% yield) in 2026.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Relative calm returned to global markets, with stocks climbing and oil sinking alongside gold as fears subsided that Israel’s war against Iran would escalate into a wider conflict.
News reports that Tehran wants to restart talks over its nuclear program also fueled risk-on sentiment.
Equities bounced after Friday’s slide, with the S&P 500 up about 1%.
West Texas Intermediate settled below $72 a barrel after spiking at the start of the session.
The dollar was little changed.
Longer-maturity Treasuries continued to lag the market even after a $13 billion sale of 20-year bonds drew the expected yield level — a notable improvement from last month’s auction disappointment that spurred a broad selloff.
President Donald Trump said Iran wants to talk about de- escalating the conflict with Israel even as the two sides exchanged fire for the fourth consecutive day.
Asked if the US would get more involved militarily, Trump said he didn’t want to discuss it.
Tehran is signaling it wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel and is willing to resume nuclear talks with the US as long as Washington doesn’t join the Israeli attacks, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday citing Middle Eastern and European officials it didn’t identify.
A similar report by Reuters says Iran conveyed the message through Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
The outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran disrupted the momentum that had driven the S&P 500 back near record levels.
While markets initially adopted a cautious, risk- off stance to assess how the conflict might unfold, sentiment improved on Monday as investors speculated the attacks were unlikely to draw in more parties.
“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“Markets got a reminder that tariffs aren’t the only potential source of market volatility,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Right now, markets are signaling they expect the situation in the Middle East will remain contained, but any surprises could have an oversized impact on sentiment.”
Despite the calmer market sentiment, there was little sign either side was effectively dialing back the conflict.
Iran fired several waves of drones and missiles over the last 24 hours, while Israel continued hitting the Islamic Republic’s capital, Tehran, killing one more senior military official and setting the state-television complex ablaze with a strike during a live broadcast.
The S&P 500 risks plunging if inflation spikes on the back of higher oil prices, according to a report by RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina.
“The conflict has the potential to generate some additional angst about the health of the consumer, the broader economy, and the path of the Fed, a narrative shift that seems likely to be problematic for stock prices,” the strategists wrote in the note.
Meantime, the trading desk at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said potential pullbacks ahead would present buying opportunities.
The firm’s traders led by head of global market intelligence Andrew Tyler added that the bull case remains in place, assuming tariff relief in the longer term is still underway — but advised caution until there is more clarity on the US involvement in Middle East.
Israel launched an attack on the South Pars gas field, forcing the halt of a production platform, following strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and military leadership last week.
However, critical crude oil-exporting infrastructure has so far been spared and there’s been no blockage of the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Middle East producers ship about a fifth of the world’s daily output through the narrow waterway, and prices could soar further if Tehran attempts to disrupt shipments through the route.
Iran is prepared to deliver a “major blow” to Israel following its recent strikes on Iranian cities and targets, Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency reported, citing a senior security official.
Meantime, Israel will pursue its military operations against Iran regardless of the progress of any potential negotiations involving the US, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
“We’re going to go about our operation to remove these two threats,” Dermer said Monday, referring to Iran’s missile and nuclear programs.
“Whether Iran will decide to meet with the United States and agree to terms that they should have taken a month ago, or two weeks ago, or two months ago, you know, that’s up to Iran to decide.”
Oil, Inflation, Fed Tensions in the Middle East will only add to the conundrum that major central banks face as they assess risks to inflation and growth from tariffs and stop-start commerce flows.
Wall Street will mostly focus on the Federal Reserve decision Wednesday, with policymakers signaling an extended hold on rates.
Investors will look to Chair Jerome Powell for clues on what might eventually prompt the central bank to make a move, and when.
“He may describe recent inflation developments as encouraging, but also downplay their relevance given uncertainty ahead due to tariffs, fiscal policy, and the recent spike in the oil price due to geopolitical developments,” said David Doyle at Macquarie Group. “On net, the risks to market pricing for 2025 lie in a hawkish direction post the communication.”

Corporate Highlights:
* After a year and a half of government talks, countless regulatory hiccups and last-minute negotiations, Nippon Steel Corp. secured its much-wanted prize late last week when President Trump approved the $14.1 billion purchase of United States Steel Corp.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. joined a broad rally in semiconductor stocks as Piper Sandler said products unveiled last week were positive and expects a “snapback” for the GPU business in the fourth quarter.
* Meta Platforms Inc. will begin showing ads inside of its WhatsApp messaging service, opening a new potential revenue stream while the company invests heavily in artificial intelligence and other long-term projects.
* Boeing Co. said it’s made more progress in the past four to five months on the long-delayed new presidential aircraft than at any point in the last four years as it identifies ways to streamline the complex program.
* Roku Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.’s Amazon Ads announced a partnership, saying that advertisers will now have access to more than 80% of US households with connected TV though the Amazon DSP marketing tool.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. said it won enough support from creditors to overhaul its debt as part of a plan to split into two separate companies, a significant victory for the entertainment giant as it tries to turn itself around.
* American Express Co. teased updates coming later this year to its travel-focused Platinum credit cards, announcing what it called its “largest investment ever” in a credit-card refresh.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. reported a second patient died of acute liver failure while being treated with its gene therapy for a rare muscle disorder.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1556
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3574
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 144.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.8% to $108,681.17
* Ether rose 6.3% to $2,660.65
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.53%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $71.36 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,384.25 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Not all those who wander are lost. –J R R Tolkien, 1892-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com