Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday.

On August 4, 1504, Michelangelo’s masterpiece, the stature of David, is unveiled to the public in Florence, Italy.
1914: Britain declared war on Germany while the United States proclaimed its neutrality in World War I.  Go to article >>
1962: Nelson Mandela arrested.

Percy Bysshe Shelley, poet, b.1792.
Louis Armstrong, musician, b. 1900.
Wm Schumann, composer, b. 1910.

Everyone is in Europe this summer.  Popular European cities are seeing droves of international travelers. These are the top destinations where strong demand is lifting fares.

87-year-old fends off home intruder, offers snacks to distract him.  An 87-year-old woman offered a robber a late-night snack to keep him busy until police arrived. Read how she devised the clever plan.

Meteorite that crashed to Earth 3,500 years ago carved into arrowhead by Bronze Age hunters
A Bronze Age arrowhead found in Switzerland was made using meteoric iron.  Read More.

Rare ‘Ides of March’ dagger coin minted by Brutus after Julius Caesar’s murder goes to auction
Brutus minted the silver denarius as a way to pay his troops in the aftermath of Julius Caesar’s assassination. Read More.

James Webb telescope captures ‘a preview of the sun’s distant future’ in stunning new Ring Nebula image
Astronomers reveal ‘the final chapters of a star’s life’ in a stunning James Webb Space Telescope’s image of the exploding Ring Nebula. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

North Island, New Zealand
Surfers walk past a giant sun sculpture at sunrise on Mount Maunganui beach. Second Sun is a light therapy lamp illuminated by more than 8,000 bulbs. The 18-metre-wide artwork emits a light designed to lift the mood during the dark winter months.  Photograph: Brett Phibbs/AP

Frankfurt, Germany
Straw bales painted with faces. In Germany’s rural areas it is quite common to announce forthcoming weddings this way.  Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Ibex in the Aiguilles Rouges nature reserve above Chamonix in Haute-Savoie, France.
Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 4^th, 2023,

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35065.62	-150.27
		-0.43%
S&P 500	4478.03	-23.86
		-0.53%
NASDAQ	13909.24	-50.47
		-0.36%
TSX	20236.04	+115.30
		+0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32192.75	+33.47
		+0.10%
HANG SENG	19539.46	+118.59
		+0.61%
SENSEX	65721.25	+480.57
		+0.74%
FTSE 100*	7564.37	+35.21
		+0.47%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.548	3.713
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.449	3.582
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.0338	4.1812
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2007	4.2990

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7476	0.7489
US $	1.3376	1.3353

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4738	0.6785
US $	1.1021	0.9074

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1935.65	1944.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.82	81.55

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1790, Congress enacted Alexander Hamilton’s plan to fund the public debt. The move ended years of turmoil over the bonds issued by federal and state governments during the revolution, giving birth to the American securities markets.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 20,236.04 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%.
Definity Financial Corp. had the largest increase, rising 11.5%.
Today, 170 of 227 shares rose, while 49 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 1.4%
* The index advanced 3.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI ACvAmericas Index gained 7.4% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.9% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 13.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 on a trailing basis and 14.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.18t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.00% compared with 11.29% in the previous session and the average of 10.67% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 56.4932| 0.9| 26/2
Materials | 27.7156| 1.2| 37/11
Energy | 20.6951| 0.6| 32/7
Utilities | 10.8756| 1.3| 13/2
Industrials | 4.9227| 0.2| 15/10
Communication Services | 4.0690| 0.5| 4/1
Consumer Staples | 4.0632| 0.5| 9/2
Real Estate | 2.6367| 0.5| 17/4
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0233| 0.0| 9/5
Health Care | -1.4549| -2.3| 1/2
Information Technology | -14.7030| -1.0| 7/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.5900| 1.9| -28.6| 8.4
Brookfield Corp | 8.2780| 1.9| 236.5| 3.8
Intact Financial | 7.3720| 3.2| 39.3| 0.9
Magna Intl | -5.1030| -3.3| 18.6| 7.2
Open Text | -9.0960| -8.9| 204.2| 22.8
Shopify | -11.5000| -1.7| 26.2| 64.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell as Apple Inc. dipped below the $3 trillion mark and some other mega-caps like Tesla Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. slipped.
Amazon.com Inc. rallied after its results.
Treasuries rose, reversing some of this week’s losses after mixed jobs data.
There was something for every bull and bear in Friday’s jobs data: the 187,000 growth in payrolls was softer than estimated, wages topped forecasts and unemployment fell.
With 47 days to go before the next Federal Reserve decision — and so many other economic reports in between — the one thing that really hasn’t changed was the sense the Fed is close to wrapping up its hiking cycle.
Swap traders project a 40% chance of another quarter-point rate increase by the end of this year — with the contracts pricing in about 10 basis points of tightening.
By the end of 2024, they project rate cuts totaling more than 125 basis points.
The S&P 500 erased an advance that approached 1% earlier in the day.
Apple dropped almost 5% after its outlook sparked worries over tepid demand.
Amazon climbed over 8% on a bullish revenue forecast.
Treasury 10-year yields fell from the highest level since November.
The dollar halted a four-day advance.
“We think it’s worth staying cautious while still respecting the market’s momentum,” said Callie Cox, investment analyst at eToro. “Bull markets are tough to fight, but look for quality risk and brace yourself for a summer storm in what’s usually a bumpy time of year.”
Reaction to Jobs Data:
Seema Shah, chief global strategist of Principal Asset Management: 
“Today’s jobs report will not clear up the Fed’s dilemma.  This jobs report is definitely not a gamechanger. The Fed still has another report to come before their next meeting but, if no clear direction emerges, the Fed is likely to stay put.”
Oscar Munoz, chief US macro strategist at TD Securities:
“While today’s report does not cleanly argue for a skip decision for the September FOMC meeting, we are of the view that most of the details should be judged as positive news by most Fed officials. We continue to expect the FOMC to pause in September, with July’s rate hike likely the last of the Fed’s tightening cycle.”
David Kelly, chief global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management:
“This morning’s report is unlikely to change the odds on any further Fed tightening – the July and August CPI reports will likely be much more important in determining whether the Fed feels the need to hike further.  However, it still looks likely that 2024 will be a year of rate cuts – moderate rate cuts if the economy is able to avoid recession and more rapid cuts if today’s moderate moderation dissolves into outright recession.” 
Seth Cohan, vice president and executive director of The Wealth Alliance:
“For investors, this ‘something for everyone’ report likely means that the trends in markets of late will continue.  Inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve believes it should be, yet data has been showing mostly a slowing to declining rate in the last few months demonstrating that we could have a shallow recession or a soft landing.  Overall, the markets will likely be rangebound until we have a catalyst that
helps to clarify economic conditions.”
Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management:
“Overall, the jobs report does not change the outlook for the Fed as we are near the end of the hiking cycle, but rather provides additional evidence that the economy is moving in the direction they need to slow inflation, albeit slow.”
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank:
“With the labor market very strong, wages rising solidly, and core inflation well above the Fed’s target, odds are better than 50-50 that the Fed makes another quarter percentage point rate hike in the second half of 2023, most likely at the Fed’s Nov. 1 decision.”
Ian Lyngen, strategist at BMO Capital Markets:
“There is nothing within this release that will necessitate the Fed moves in September.”
Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI:
“The Fed will get another employment report as well as two more inflation reports before the September meeting. We believe even if growth firms some further and labor market progress slows or stalls, provided that it does not reverse the Fed may still decide not to hike again, and rely instead on a faster than expected decline in inflation to raise real rates instead.”
Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC:
“Today’s July jobs report is consistent with a soft landing in the US economy. Given recent inflation numbers and softer job growth, the FOMC will likely keep the fed funds rate unchanged when it next meets in mid-September, in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. But further fed funds rate hikes are possible later this year given incoming data on inflation and the labor market.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Booking Holdings Inc. rose after reporting revenue that beat analysts’ estimates, reflecting strong demand for travel.
* DraftKings Inc. climbed as the online sportsbook posted sales that beat expectations and it raised its forecast for the year.
* Atlassian Corp. rallied after delivering a forecast for the new year that quelled investor anxieties over a slowdown in internet technology spending.
* Tupperware Brands Corp. gained after the food-storage container company reached an agreement with its lenders to restructure its existing debt obligations, as it continues its turnaround efforts.
* Nikola Corp. fell after saying it’s tapping a former General Motors Co. vice chairman to serve as its chief executive officer, replacing the current CEO after less than a year of running the electric truck maker.
* Icahn Enterprises LP dropped after Carl Icahn slashed his company’s quarterly payouts in half and pledged to “stick to our knitting” in another substantive move acknowledging complaints raised by
short-seller Hindenburg Research earlier this year.
* Block Inc., Jack Dorsey’s payments company, slipped after reporting results that fell short of some analysts’ expectations.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1006
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2743
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 141.82 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1% to $28,994.67
* Ether fell 0.8% to $1,828.58
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 13 basis points to 4.05%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.56%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.38%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $82.62 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,976.60 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Rob Verdonck, Richard Henderson, John Viljoen and Isabelle Lee.
Have a  wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
I have observed very frequently that it is not the man who is so brilliant
(who) delivers in time of stress and strain,
but rather the man who can keep on going indefinitely,
doing a  good straightforward job. –Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, 1890-1969.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

August 3, 1936: American sprinter Jesse Owens wins the 100m (10.3 seconds) in front of Adolph Hitler in a famous race at the Berlin Olympics, first of 4 gold medals at the Games.
1987: The Iran-Contra congressional hearings ended with none of the 29 witnesses tying President Ronald Reagan directly to the diversion of arms-sales profits to Nicaraguan rebels.  Go to article >>
Martha Stewart, b. 1941

The best of the 16th annual iPhone Photography Awards:  Never underestimate the power of a smartphone camera. Here are the winners of the 2023 iPhone Photography Awards.

Caroline Kennedy recreates her father JFK’s World War II swim.  The daughter of former US President John F. Kennedy swam about three-quarters of a mile in honor of her father’s heroic swim 80 years ago.

Remarkable fossils reveal jellyfish that lived 505 million years ago.  Fossils belonging to the oldest known species of jellyfish were discovered in the Canadian Rockies.

Taylor Swift gives ‘life-changing’ bonuses to Eras Tour truck drivers.  Swift stunned the tour’s trucking staff by giving each trucker a check in the amount of $100,000.

Crusader sword found in Holy Land was bent, possibly in naval battle, X-rays reveal
A sword found at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea was likely dropped there during a battle between 800 and 900 years ago. Read More.

Iceland’s newest volcano is now spewing out tornadoes
Iceland’s newborn volcano is spewing out methane explosions and tornadoes to complement the ribbons of lava painting the landscape. Read More.

Google’s ‘mind-reading’ AI can tell what music you listened to based on your brain signals
AI can produce a song that matches the genre, rhythm, mood and instrumentation of music that the individual recently heard. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Fustiñana, Spain: A herd of sheep is driven by Angel Mari Sanz, 62, along La Cañada Real de los Roncaleses (the Path of the Roncaleses), an ancient transhumance route
Photograph: Álvaro Barrientos/AP

Takachiho, Japan: Eleanor Smart of the USA dives from the 21-metre platform during the final competition day of the fourth stop in the Red Bull Cliff Diving World Series
Photograph: Getty Image

​​​​​​​Aiguilles Rouges, France: People take a break during a hike in the Lac Blanc area of the nature reserve, which faces Mont Blanc above Chamonix, Haute-Savoie. Faced with an increase in visitor numbers since 2021, measures have been introduced this summer to protect the site, including a limit on camping.
Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 3^rd, 2023,

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35215.89	-66.63
		-0.19%
S&P 500	4501.89	-11.50
		-0.25%
NASDAQ	13959.71	-13.74
		-0.10%
TSX	20120.74	-97.47
		-0.48%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32159.28	-548.41
		-1.68%
HANG SENG	19420.87	-96.51
		-0.49%
SENSEX	65240.68	-542.10
		-0.82%
FTSE 100*	7529.16	-32.47
		-0.43%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.713	3.622
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.582	3.451
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1812	4.0775
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2990	4.1768

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7489	0.7491
US $	1.3353	1.3349

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4622	0.6839
US $	1.0948	0.9134

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1944.20	1947.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.55	79.49

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1984, total trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 200 million shares for the first time, as 236,565,110 shares changed hands.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.5%, or 97.47 to 20,120.74 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 12.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 120 of 227 shares fell, while 105 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.4%.
Bombardier Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.5%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 1.9%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended June 23.
* The index advanced 2.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 8% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 12.6% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.3% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 14.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.2t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.29% compared with 11.37% in the previous session and the average of 10.65% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -38.3328| -2.5| 4/7
Financials | -37.5620| -0.6| 13/16
Utilities | -22.1917| -2.6| 3/13
Materials | -15.3622| -0.6| 21/29
Communication Services | -6.5807| -0.8| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary | -4.6913| -0.6| 6/8
Consumer Staples | -3.9675| -0.5| 3/8
Real Estate | -1.5068| -0.3| 5/14
Health Care | 0.2822| 0.5| 2/2
Industrials | 1.9210| 0.1| 14/12
Energy | 30.5122| 0.9| 34/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -37.7800| -5.4| 35.6| 67.8
Nutrien | -12.6000| -4.0| 12.6| -12.8
Brookfield Corp | -12.0700| -2.7| 56.3| 1.9
Cenovus Energy | 6.1470| 2.6| 7.5| -3.2
Canadian Natural Resources | 7.0610| 1.2| -33.7| 6.4
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 8.0140| 1.2| -10.9| 7.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The slide in the world’s biggest bond market deepened and stocks fell ahead of the US jobs report, which is expected to provide clues on the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
In late trading, Amazon.com Inc. climbed after a bullish revenue forecast, while traders awaited results from Apple Inc.
Longer-dated Treasuries are now set for their worst week of 2023 amid signs of unexpected economic strength and concern over a widening budget deficit.
A report Thursday underscored resilient demand for workers, while separate numbers showed labor productivity climbed, helping to offset rising labor costs.
Those figures preceded the government’s employment data — forecast to show the US added 200,000 jobs in July.
While that would be the weakest print since the end of 2020, it’s still a strong advance historically.
“The good news is that almost everyone agrees that an imminent recession isn’t very likely,” said Ed Yardeni, founder of his namesake research firm. “That reduces the downside concerns about corporate earnings, but it increases the downside potential for the stock market’s valuation multiple if the bond yield continues to rise.”
The S&P 500 dropped for a third straight day.
Tech mega-caps, which bore the brunt of the recent selling in equities, outperformed.
Treasury 30-year yields hit 4.3%, extending a three-day surge to about 30 basis points.
The dollar was little changed.
The pound wavered as the Bank of England warned its fight against inflation may require tighter borrowing conditions for an extended period.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that investors expect strong employment and weak wage inflation.
Roughly 65% of respondents are betting payrolls will be greater than consensus.
Meantime, 55% expect average hourly earnings to trail estimates — which helps explain why they also expect the equity-market reaction to be muted, the firm noted.
To Jason Draho at UBS Global Wealth Management, markets actually may be listless for the next month in the absence of any significant catalyst and after a strong run.
“Markets are already pricing in a soft landing, and increasingly with the belief that relatively little growth pain is required for inflation to gradually return to 2%,” Draho noted. “The markets are vulnerable to any signs that the economy, with the Fed’s steering, is at risk of not sticking to that soft landing.”
Meantime, rate options traders are paying through the nose for protection against further increases in long-maturity Treasury yields.
A metric that compares demand for bearish put options to demand for bullish call options shows the widest divergence since September for options on CME Group Inc.’s US Treasury Bond Futures contract, which currently tracks a bond that matures in 2039.
The gaps are less extreme for options on shorter-maturity Treasury futures.
The steepening of the yield curve extended a trend since the Bank of Japan surprised markets last week with a policy tweak.
At 4.88%, two-year yields are 71 basis points higher than those on the 10-year note.
That’s compared to a gap of 102 basis points two weeks ago.
“I remain wary of taking duration risks and still much prefer short duration bonds,” said Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report. “This sovereign bond bubble continues to unwind and the problem now is higher rates just exacerbates the sovereign debt rise as interest expense starts to explode higher, everywhere, not just in the US, highlighted by the Fitch downgrade.”
Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, said he’s short 30-year Treasuries “in size” — as both a hedge against the impact of higher long-term rates on stocks and also as a standalone bet. Bill Gross, the former chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. noted he’s “overall bearish” on 10-year yields, while Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman  Warren Buffett told CNBC he had been buying Treasury bills and would likely continue.
Elsewhere, oil rose after Saudi Arabia prolonged its unilateral production cut by another month and hinted that deeper reductions may be on the way.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apollo Global Management Inc. hit an all-time high after it reported a record profit as strong inflows powered results at its Athene annuities business.
* Tesla Inc.’s China deliveries slumped in July to the lowest level this year, as the electric vehicle maker struggles to attract buyers despite price cuts and other incentives.
* Qualcomm Inc., the largest maker of smartphone processors, gave a tepid sales forecast for the current quarter, indicating that demand for mobile devices remains weak.
* Moderna Inc. raised its Covid-19 vaccine sales outlook for the year, finalizing contracts with Japan and several American health-care companies as the US government largely stops paying for the shots.
* DoorDash Inc. reported a record number of delivery orders in the second quarter, showing consumers’ commitment to takeout despite rising prices. 
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0947
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2706
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 142.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $29,285.66
* Ether rose 0.3% to $1,846.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.60%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.47%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.9% to $81.77 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,969.50 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson, Tassia Sipahutar, John Viljoen and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Civilization is a movement and not a condition, a voyage and not a harbor. –Arnold Toynbee, 1889-1975.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
The month of August is named after the Roman emperor Augustus Caesar.  His 40 years in power were a high point for the Roman Empire, with literature and the arts flourishing during a time of relative peace.

August 2,1870: The Tower Subway beneath the River Thames in London opened its doors for passengers.  The subway was closed within a few months because of bankruptcy.  The tunnel is now used for utilities.

1939: Albert Einstein signed a letter to President Franklin D. Roosevelt urging creation of an atomic weapons research program.  Go to article >>

Man who visited every country without flying has returned home.  Meet a man who completed his dream of visiting every country in the world by either land or sea.

‘Exceptional’ winged Medusa discovered in Roman-era mosaic in Spain
The 1,800-year-old Medusa mosaic was discovered in the remains of lavish Roman-era house in western Spain. Read More.

Deadly swarm of earthquakes in Japan caused by magma moving through extinct volcano
Over 10,000 earthquakes are believed to be emanating from a long-dead volcano, with fluids pushing through the collapsed system. Read More.

Rare ‘Einstein cross’ warps light from one of the universe’s brightest objects in this stunning image
Einstein predicted the existence of these crosses back in 1915. Now, they are used to study distant galaxies. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sunflowers are pictured behind rain drops on a car window at a field in Frankfurt, Germany. Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

New York City, US.   Supermoon rises over the Empire State Building.  Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Encinitas, California, US.  Surfers Sam Paulsen (R), of Encinitas, and Sean Bobo, of Cardiff, flip off a wave while surfing the high tide backwash along a cliff coastline.  Photograph: Mike Blake/Reuters
Market Closes for August 2^nd, 2023,

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35282.52	-348.16
		-0.98%
S&P 500	4513.39	-63.34
		-1.38%
NASDAQ	13973.45	-310.46
		-2.17%
TSX	20218.21	-314.72
		-1.53%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32707.69	-768.89
		-2.30%
HANG SENG	19517.38	-493.74
		-2.47%
SENSEX	65782.78	-676.53
		-1.02%
FTSE 100*	7561.63	-104.64
		-1.36%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.622	3.604
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.451	3.410
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.0775	3.0230
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1768	4.0919

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7491	0.7531
US $	1.3349	1.3278

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4602	0.6848
US $	1.0938	0.9142

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1947.20	1970.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.49	81.37

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1990, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Over the next two and a half months, the U.S. stock market lost 19%, and many experts began to forecast a protracted bear market. Yet, just one year later, stocks were up nearly 27%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.5%, or 314.72 to 20,218.21 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.6% on March 15.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 197 of 227 shares fell, while 28 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 7.0%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss nine times. The next day, it declined five times for an average 0.9% and advanced four times for an average 1.5%
* The index advanced 3.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9.9% in the same period * The S&P/TSX Composite is 3% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 13.1% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 0.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 14.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.25t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.37% compared with 10.25% in the previous session and the average of 10.62% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -77.6415| -4.8| 0/11
Financials | -69.3406| -1.1| 4/25
Materials | -57.0835| -2.3| 4/45
Energy | -37.7151| -1.1| 4/36
Industrials | -30.1222| -1.1| 4/22
Utilities | -15.5753| -1.8| 1/15
Communication Services | -12.8115| -1.6| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary | -8.1735| -1.0| 1/13
Consumer Staples | -4.4272| -0.5| 4/7
Real Estate | -1.5457| -0.3| 5/16
Health Care | -0.2765| -0.4| 1/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -52.3000| -7.0| 109.4| 77.4
Canadian Natural Resources | -13.9700| -2.3| -42.7| 5.2
Constellation Software | -13.0900| -3.4| 81.4| 28.8
Colliers International | 3.0720| 9.0| 141.3| 17.3
Thomson Reuters | 3.2820| 1.7| 55.0| 18.2
TC Energy | 4.9400| 1.5| -48.8| -10.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — This year’s $6.5 trillion rally in stocks hit a wall, following hot jobs data and a ramp-up in Treasury issuance just a day after a US credit downgrade by Fitch Ratings.
Equities fell across the board, with the S&P 500 notching its worst day since April.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 2% after a surge that topped 40% this year amid the artificial-intelligence frenzy.
Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. sank at least 2.7%. Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, the VIX, climbed the most in almost five months.
Ten-year yields hit the highest since November, while the dollar rose against all of its developed-market peers.
In late trading, Qualcomm Inc., the largest maker of smartphone processors, gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, indicating that demand for mobile devices remains weak even as the industry emerges from a glut.
To Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, the stock market is seeing a “high-level consolidation” after a rally that included overbought conditions, bullish sentiment and generally thinner breadth readings.
“While consolidation is generally considered a healthy phase on the way to resumption of previous trend, our outlook for the second half of 2023 has not changed materially at this time,” Wantrobski noted. “We are still on watch for a deeper correction.”
He also expects more  volatility over the next several months triggered by any number of potential catalysts such as Federal Reserve policy, rate volatility and tightening liquidity.
Wall Street traders also had something else to worry about — a steeper yield curve — with rates on longer-term bonds rising faster than rates on shorter-term maturities.
Whenever the US curve has steepened in a significant way from an inverted position over the past 50 years, it has been followed by a meaningful drop in the equity market, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“With this in mind, we’re not worried about the downgrade impact,” Maley noted. “There are some developments to be concerned about, including the recent rise in Treasury yields.  The steepening of the yield curve — from an inverted position — is bearish, not bullish for the stock market.”
The steepening of the yield curve extended a trend since the Bank of Japan last week surprised markets with a policy tweak.
At 4.92%, two-year yields are 82 basis points higher than those of the 10-year note.
That’s compared to a gap of 102 basis points two weeks ago.
Fitch Ratings stripped the US of its top-tier rating, criticizing the ballooning fiscal deficit and an “erosion of governance.”
The downgrade serves up an extra dose of uneasiness among investors already concerned about the risks of a recession and whether this year’s run-up in stocks is sustainable.
The US credit rating downgrade should not have been a surprise for investors that have been following Fitch’s comments, but the timing surely caught everyone off guard, according to Ed Moya at Oanda.
“Wall Street can’t ignore what is happening with fixed  income as Treasury yields surge,” Moya added. “Equity traders are using this surge in yields and some nervousness ahead of Apple and Amazon’s earnings as an opportunity to lock in some profits.”
The next few hours will be key for risk appetite also because of Friday’s jobs data, which could sway markets in thinking we might need to see more Federal Reserve tightening, Moya added.
US companies added more jobs in July than expected, highlighting the persistent strength of the labor market, according to figures published Wednesday by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

Corporate Highlights
* American Airlines Group Inc. is in talks with Airbus SE and Boeing Co. to order at least 100 narrowbody jets to replace some of the oldest aircraft in its fleet, according to people familiar with the matter.
* CVS Health Corp. beat estimates for second-quarter profit and sales, a sign of strength as the drugstore chain cuts staff to reduce costs and focuses on broadening its health-care offerings.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. topped second-quarter estimates and touted inroads in artificial intelligence computing, putting it in closer competition with Nvidia Corp.
* Pinterest Inc. said revenue in the current quarter will rise in line with analysts’ estimates, disappointing some investors after digital-ad rivals posted surprisingly upbeat results last week.
* Starbucks Corp.’s quarterly sales fell short of analysts’ estimates as traffic growth slowed in the US. Higher prices and add-ons to beverages helped bolster profit.
Key events this week:
* China Caixin Services PMI, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Thursday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, productivity, factory orders, ISM Services, Thursday
* Eurozone retail sales, Friday
* US unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0939
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2714
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $29,129.14
* Ether fell 0.5% to $1,840.77
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.07%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.40%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to $79.81 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,971.70 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, John Viljoen, Isabelle Lee and Lu Wang.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who  believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong. -Thomas Jefferson, 1743-1826.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Lammas.

A sturgeon supermoon will light up the sky tonight, creating a luminous spectacle for millions around the world. This type of lunar phenomenon occurs when the moon nears its closest point to Earth while appearing full — and it only happens three to four times per year.

1914: World War I begins as Germany declares war on Russia, setting off a chain of events that leads to a global conflict.
1981: The music video channel MTV made its debut. Go to article >>
1990: World Wide Web established.
1789: US Customs established.

The best photos of the 2023 Women’s World Cup: We’ve entered the final round of matches in the group stage at the Women’s World Cup, with nations vying for a place in the knockout round. View awesome photos captured at the tournament and keep up with the current standings here.

AMC Theaters just had its best week in history.  Thanks to “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” the world’s largest theater chain earned its largest single-week admissions revenue since the company’s founding in 1920.

Will the US run out of water?
“The issue is not about running out of water, it’s about having water in the right place,” Lis Mullin Bernhardt, from the United Nations Environment Programme, told Live Science. Read More.

See stunning likeness of Zlatý kůň, the oldest modern human to be genetically sequenced
Researchers created a facial approximation of a 45,000-year-old woman with Neanderthal ancestry. Read More

Iron Age warrior woman was buried with a sword and a mirror Archaeologists in England used a tooth enamel analysis to confirm that a 2,000-year-old burial contained a female warrior.
Full Story: Live Science (7/31)

Russian scientists have grown watermelons in the coldest place on Earth
The agricultural feat was part of an experiment at Vostok Station, a year-round Russian research station in Antarctica. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Maine, US: People walk along the beach at Scarborough under dark clouds. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Zaragoza, Spain: Two storks are silhouetted against the super sturgeon moon.  Photograph: Javier Belver/EPA

​​​​​​​London, UK: Models of megalodon fins on the River Thames for a photoshoot for the film Meg 2: The Trench.  Photograph: Jack Hall/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 1, 2023,

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35630.68	+71.15
		+0.20%
S&P 500	4576.73	-12.23
		-0.27%
NASDAQ	14283.91	-62.11
		-0.43%
TSX	20532.93	-93.71
		-0.45%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	33476.58	+304.36
		+0.92%
HANG SENG	20011.12	-67.82
		-0.34%
SENSEX	66459.31	-68.36
		-0.10%
FTSE 100*	7666.27	-33.14
		-0.43%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.604	3.499
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.410	3.306
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.0230	3.9628
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0919	4.0153

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7531	0.7580
US $	1.3278	1.3192

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4603	0.6848
US $	1.0999	0.9092

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1970.65	1954.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.37	81.80

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1981, MTV began broadcasting. Showing non-stop music videos, the cable TV channel jolted the faltering recorded-music business around the world.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 20,532.93 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.8%.
SilverCrest Metals Inc. had the largest drop, falling 21.5%.
Today, 151 of 228 shares fell, while 73 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 4.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 14.9% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 on a trailing basis and 14.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.25% compared with 10.58% in the previous session and the average of 10.59% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -45.6620| -1.8| 2/48
Financials | -36.1535| -0.6| 8/20
Utilities | -10.7433| -1.2| 1/13
Consumer Discretionary | -3.0859| -0.4| 8/7
Consumer Staples | -2.1784| -0.3| 3/8
Health Care | -1.1144| -1.8| 1/3
Real Estate | -0.4949| -0.1| 9/12
Information Technology | -0.0175| 0.0| 3/8
Communication Services | 0.3182| 0.0| 2/3
Energy | 1.2847| 0.0| 21/18
Industrials | 4.1413| 0.1| 15/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -10.3100| -0.8| 31.3| 1.9
Bank of Montreal | -7.3840| -1.2| 1.7| -1.3
Bank of Nova Scotia| -7.2080| -1.3| -42.3| -1.2
Shopify | 4.5310| 0.6| -0.7| 90.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 5.4460| 0.9| -44.3| 7.6
Waste Connections | 6.5400| 2.0| 91.5| 5.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The rally that drove the stock market up almost 30% from its October lows took a little break at the start of the new month amid calls for a near-term pullback.
Just a few days ahead of the all-important jobs report, data suggested some softening in demand for workers in a still tight labor market.
The numbers weren’t enough to entice investors, who also grappled with a mixed bag of corporate earnings.
The S&P 500 finished the session with a small loss.
Bonds fell, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest since November as the Treasury prepares to ramp up issuance of longer-dated securities.
“It looks like stocks on Wall Street are taking a breather from the relentless rally,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
While many traders are afraid of standing on the way of the rally, we could see some downside action — with investors likely to “sit on their hands” in the run-up to employment data and earnings from giants Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.
In late trading, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. gained after the company topped second-quarter estimates and said it was making further inroads in artificial-intelligence computing.
Starbucks Corp. dropped as its quarterly sales fell short of analysts’ estimates, a sign that momentum may be slowing for the coffee giant amid higher prices and tighter pocketbooks.
Bank of America Corp. strategist Savita Subramanian noted there’s no reason to fret just yet about the equity market.
BofA’s Sell Side Indicator — which tracks sell-side strategists’ recommended stock allocations — is still in neutral territory despite increased allocations and stands closer to a “buy” rather than a “sell” signal.
“Rising equity allocations and falling bond allocations mark a reversal from the bond love and equity hate that built during 2022,” Subramanian added.
Equities have come a long way in a short period of time, but looking at different time frames, the gains don’t look quite as impressive, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
In the case of the S&P 500, over the last 12 months, it’s still up about 11%, but on a two-year basis, performance looks much less attractive at a little over 4%.
“That hardly looks like a market that has become unanchored from reality,” Bespoke strategists wrote.
Oppenheimer Asset Management’s John Stoltzfus lifted his target on the S&P 500 index to a Street high, a day after Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, one of the market’s leading doomsayers, sounded less bearish than usual.
Stoltzfus now sees the S&P 500 index hitting 4,900 by the end of the year, leaving room for another 7% gain.
The target would mark a new record for the gauge, and one that plays out against bearish predictions by prominent Wall Street names such as Wilson, JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic and Bank of America
Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
* Tesla Inc. is the subject of another probe by US regulators, this time focusing on driver complaints about vehicles possibly at risk of losing control of steering. The shares fell.
* Uber Technologies Inc. reported its first-ever operating profit, but that milestone was eclipsed by a pace of growth that has decelerated from pandemic highs, sending the shares down the most in nine months.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. slashed its full-year profit forecast over signs of a slowdown in domestic demand, becoming the latest carrier to warn of a shift toward international routes and renewing questions about the durability of a post-pandemic surge in US travel.
* Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. slipped after the company issued guidance for the third quarter that missed Wall Street’s expectations.
Key events this week:
* China Caixin Services PMI, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Thursday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, productivity, factory orders, ISM Services, Thursday
* Eurozone retail sales, Friday
* US unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0982
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2773
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 143.40 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $29,281.63
* Ether was little changed at $1,851.93
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.03%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.56%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.40%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $81.67 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.3% to $1,982.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jason Scott, Richard Henderson and John Viljoen.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent.

As ever,

Carolann
You raise your voice when you should reinforce your argument. –Dr. Samuel Johnson, 1709-1784.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

July 31, 1498: Christopher Columbus discovers the island of Trinidad on his third voyage.
July 31, 1914: The New York Stock Exchange closed due to the outbreak of World War I. Go to article >>
1790: US Patent Office opens.

Michelle Yeoh marries partner Jean Todt after 19-year engagement.  Oscar-winner Michelle Yeoh has married her longtime partner nearly two decades after the French businessman first proposed to her.

Bronny James plays piano days after cardiac arrest.  NBA star LeBron James shared this video of his son Bronny James playing a piano, days after the 18-year-old suffered cardiac arrest.

4,000-year-old cemetery discovered at future rocket launch site in UK.  Archaeologists think the burial site dates from about 4,000 years ago, during the Bronze Age. Read More

Spherical ‘minibrains’ to be grown on the International Space Station
An upcoming resupply mission to the International Space Station will include stem cells destined to be grown into tiny, 3D models of the human brain. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Westerhausen, Germany: A sunflower labyrinth takes the shape of a horse’s head and flowing mane Photograph: Matthias Schräder/AP

Burbank, US: A bear sits in a whirlpool bath in the Californian city. Burbank police said officers responded to a sighting of a bear in the area and found it enjoying a short dip. The bear later climbed over a wall and headed to a tree behind the property, police said in a statement.  Photograph: AP

Mies, Switzerland:  Mayeul van den Broek pilots the SP80 sailboat during a traction test on Lake Geneva, ahead of an attempt to break the world sailing speed record next year in the south of France. Developed with the support of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL), the sleek vessel aims to reach 80 knots (148 km/h) using only wind power. Started by three sailing enthusiasts, the project team now has about 50 members including students and recent EPFL graduates, with an average age of only 23.  Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images.
Market Closes for July 31^st, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35559.53	+100.24
		+0.28%
S&P 500	4588.96	+6.73
		+0.15%
NASDAQ	14346.02	+29.36
		+0.21%
TSX	20626.64	+107.27
		+0.52%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	33172.22	+412.99
		+1.26%
HANG SENG	20078.94	+162.38
		+0.82%
SENSEX	66527.67	+367.47
		+0.56%
FTSE 100*	7699.41	+5.14
		+0.07%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.499	3.516
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.306	3.327
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9628	3.9526
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0153	4.0115

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7580	0.7556
US $	1.3192	1.3234

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4504	0.6895
US $	1.0995	0.9095

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1954.25	1945.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.80	80.42

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1914: With war raging in Europe, the New York Stock Exchange closed. It stayed shut for another four and a half months to allow the chaotic market to settle.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.5%, or 107.27 to 20,626.64 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since April 28.
TC Energy Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.4%. Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.6%.
Today, 155 of 228 shares rose, while 71 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.3%
* The index advanced 4.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 15.4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 14.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.25t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.58% compared with 10.54% in the previous session and the average of 10.66% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 40.7295| 1.7| 44/6
Energy | 33.5528| 1.0| 26/12
Information Technology | 23.6380| 1.5| 10/1
Financials | 16.8686| 0.3| 16/13
Real Estate | 3.2313| 0.7| 16/5
Health Care | 1.3184| 2.1| 2/2
Consumer Staples | 0.4552| 0.1| 6/5
Utilities | -0.2918| 0.0| 11/5
Consumer Discretionary | -1.3017| -0.2| 8/7
Communication Services | -3.8519| -0.5| 1/4
Industrials | -7.0873| -0.3| 15/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TC Energy | 14.3800| 4.4| -3.6| -12.4
Shopify | 14.1000| 1.9| -20.9| 89.5
TD Bank | 11.2700| 1.0| 14.6| -0.8
Restaurant Brands | -1.8070| -0.8| -30.6| 15.3
Intact Financial | -4.0210| -1.7| 6.0| -0.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -9.3120| -1.3| 20.7| 7.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stock traders refrained from making big bets in the final day of July as concern about an overheated market resurfaced amid a rally that drove the S&P 500 to its longest streak of monthly gains since August 2021.
Wall Street has looked past concern about an earnings recession as data bolstered hopes on a soft landing despite the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.
While many investors are betting the great tech rally that drove this year’s advance in equities has staying power, there’s a growing view the sector is due for a breather — which could weigh on the broader market.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., investors need to be careful about extrapolating what we’ve seen this year in stocks, and it’s essential to have a backup plan for when the “FOMO rally” fades or “some compelling cracks” start to form.
He’s among those betting broad equity averages will see limited upside over the next couple of months.
“Is merely ‘avoiding a recession’ really enough to push the stock market a lot higher from its expensive level?” said Maley.
“Investors need to be careful about trying to squeeze every last penny out of this rally in the stock market over the coming days and weeks given that many of the best stocks are quite expensive.”
The S&P 500 edged higher to around 4,590, hovering near a 16-month high.
The mega-cap space also saw subdued action, with Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. due to report earnings in the coming days.
The Nasdaq 100 notched its longest streak of monthly gains since August 2020.
Treasury 10-year yields traded close to 3.95% while the dollar was little changed.
Traders took a Fed survey of lending officers in stride.
As hinted by Chair Jerome Powell, the central bank said financial institutions reported tighter standards and continued weak demand for loans in the second quarter, extending a trend that began before recent stresses in the banking sector emerged.
The stock market has been seasonally more muted in August, but if history is any guide, the S&P 500 could see more gains after a five-month winning run.
In the prior 37 such streaks since 1928, the gauge extended gains into a sixth month almost 80% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Signs are beginning to point to capitulation among bearish institutional investors, economists and Wall Street strategists as market returns and economic data continue to defy expectations, said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.
Citigroup Inc.’s Scott Chronert has joined the list of prognosticators who have revisited their gloomy outlooks in recent weeks.
He raised his 2023 year-end call for the US stock gauge to 4,600 and to 5,000 by mid-2024.
“The near-term hurdles we envisioned headed into Q3 are now behind,” Chronert wrote in a note to clients. “The new targets reflect increased probability of a soft landing in our scenario approach.”
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, one of the few Wall Street strategists to see last year’s equities rout coming, has been among the market’s leading pessimists throughout 2023.
But on Monday, after months of soaring stocks, he changed his tone and now sees the rally running further.
Nationwide’s Hackett reckons that while earnings picture has been mixed, the challenges companies have endured – stubborn inflation, weak markets, and sluggishness internationally – are no longer headwinds.
“Now, we’re not only seeing tailwinds heading into 2024, but we’re getting less disruptive reactions in the stock market following earnings reports. These are very encouraging signs that a lot of the emotion that was driving markets has subsided,” Hackett added.
Indeed, US firms beating profit estimates hasn’t been as impressive a feat as it once was.
Companies whose earnings outpaced analysts’ expectations for the second quarter are still underperforming the S&P 500 Index by the most in 18 years on the day after results, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin.
“With lackluster earnings ‘beats’ mostly below historical averages, any breakaway from this sideways market will require additional fuel,” said Robert Teeter at Silvercrest Asset Management.
In corporate news, Exxon Mobil Corp. climbed as Bloomberg News reported it’s in talks with Tesla Inc., Ford Motor Co. and other automakers about supplying them with lithium.
SoFi Technologies Inc. surged 20% as the online bank raised its revenue guidance, citing benefits from deposit growth and lower funding costs on loans.
Yellow Corp., which hauls about 15% of major companies’ so-called less-than-truckload shipments, soared after ceasing operations and told union leaders that it plans to file for bankruptcy following years of financial struggles.
Traders also waded through the latest remarks from central bank officials.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that data showing slower inflation is “fabulous news,” but he hasn’t yet decided on whether to support pausing rate hikes at the next policy meeting.
Over the weekend, his Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari said the inflation outlook is “quite positive,” though the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening campaign will likely result in some job losses and slower growth.
Elsewhere, the yen dropped after the Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond-purchase operation to tamp down rates after adjusting policy on Friday to allow benchmark yields to climb as high as 1%. The purchases are another reminder that Japan’s slow retreat from ultra-loose monetary policy brings a heightened risk of volatility.
Key events this week:
* Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision, Tuesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Tuesday
* US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Tuesday
* China Caixin Services PMI, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Thursday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, productivity, factory orders, ISM Services, Thursday
* Eurozone retail sales, Friday
* US unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0995
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2834
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 142.25 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $29,172.15
* Ether fell 0.5% to $1,856.3
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.96%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.31%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $81.86 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,004 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Brett Miller, Richard Henderson, John Viljoen, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Don’t count the days, make the days count.  -Muhammad Ali, 1942-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 28^th, 1896: The Olympic Games return to Athens, Greece, the birthplace  of the ancient Olympics, after a hiatus of over a century, rekindling the spirit f athletic competition on a global stage.

On July 28, 1914, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. World War I began as declarations of war by other European nations quickly followed.  Go to article >>

Jaqueline Kennedy, first lady, b. 1929.
Beatrix Potter, writer, b. 1866.
Marcel Duchamp, surrealist, b.1887.
Terry Fox, b.b1958.

Taylor Swift fans cause record-breaking seismic activity at concerts.  Dancing fans at Swift’s concerts in Seattle caused seismic activity equivalent to a 2.3 magnitude earthquake. Swifties, I knew you were trouble … try not to shake the Earth too much.

The fate of AI in music.  See how people are using voice cloning in songs — and why a 1980s Bette Midler lawsuit could decide the fate of artificial intelligence in music.

Blood pressure is best lowered by these 2 exercises.  A new study suggests exercises that engage muscles without movement — such as wall squats and planks — may be best for lowering blood pressure.

Ruins of ancient Roman emperor Nero’s theater unearthed in ‘exceptional’ discovery in Rome
Archaeologists may have found the ruins of Nero’s theater, a first-century imperial performance space whose whereabouts had remained largely elusive. Read More.

Plastic-eating fungi could help take a bite out of Earth’s rampant pollution crisis, study suggests.  When their preferred meal isn’t available, wood-decaying fungi can chow down on plastic instead.
Full Story: Live Science (7/27)

Nematode resurrected from Siberian permafrost lay dormant for 46,000 years
The nematode has lain dormant in a fossilized squirrel burrow since the late Pleistocene, revealing that these worms can survive for tens of thousands of years longer than thought.  Read More.

Predicting earthquakes is currently impossible. GPS data could help change that
Global Positioning System (GPS) data could help spot early warning signs two hours before a big quake strikes. Read More.

RIP Randy Meisner, a founding member of the legendary rock band the Eagles, has died, according to an announcement on the band’s official website. He was 77. The bassist and vocalist contributed to some of the band’s most iconic songs, including “Try and Love Again” and “Take it to the Limit.”
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Madrid, Spain:  Ralf Hütter, Fritz Hilpert, Henning Schmitz and Falk Grieffenhagen of Kraftwerk perform at the Universal Music festival in Teatro Real.  Photograph: Aldara Zarraoa/Redferns

Liverpool, UK: Peter Walker stands next to his art installation, Identity, at Liverpool Cathedral. The work features seven illuminated columns, with individual strips of light representing the double helix.
Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA Media

Florida, US: SpaceX launches Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral.  Photograph: Joe Marino/UPI/Shutterstock
Market Closes for July 28^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35459.29	+176.57
		+0.50%
S&P 500	4582.23	+44.82
		+0.99%
NASDAQ	14316.66	+266.55
		+1.90%
TSX	20519.08	+133.61
		+0.66%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32759.23	-131.93
		-0.40%
HANG SENG	19916.56	+277.45
		+1.41%
SENSEX	66160.20	-106.62
		-0.16%
FTSE 100*	7694.27	+1.51
		+0.02%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.516	3.614
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.327	3.420
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9526	3.9982
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0115	4.0390

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7556	0.7560
US $	1.3235	1.3228

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4517	0.6888
US $	1.1022	0.9073

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1945.35	1966.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.42	80.09

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1971, Wells Fargo launched the world’s first stock-index fund with $6 million from the pension fund of Samsonite Corp.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.7% at 20,519.37 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since July 18 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.9%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.2%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest increase, rising 15.2%.
Today, 165 of 228 shares rose, while 63 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.8%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 5.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 14.8% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 on a trailing basis and 14.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.23t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.54% compared with 10.45% in the previous session and the average of 10.71% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 35.8080| 2.3| 11/0
Energy | 33.6563| 1.0| 37/3
Materials | 29.6897| 1.2| 43/7
Industrials | 28.1089| 1.0| 20/6
Financials | 14.2185| 0.2| 22/7
Health Care | 1.7785| 3.0| 4/0
Consumer Discretionary | 1.2944| 0.2| 8/7
Communication Services | -0.2114| 0.0| 3/2
Consumer Staples | -2.8604| -0.3| 6/5
Real Estate | -3.1119| -0.6| 7/14
Utilities | -4.4539| -0.5| 4/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 22.9900| 3.2| -16.9| 85.9
Canadian National | 13.3500| 2.0| 4.9| -0.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.5000| 2.1| -55.0| 6.4
Telus | -2.6190| -1.1| 25.3| -9.6
Enbridge | -6.5160| -1.0| 26.8| -8.9
TC Energy | -14.6700| -4.3| 190.6| -16.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street shook off worries over the Bank of Japan policy tweak as another round of US data bolstered bets on the so-called Goldilocks scenario of an economy that’s neither running too hot nor too cold.
The stock market powered ahead as key gauges of inflation showed further easing while Americans grew more optimistic about the economic outlook.
When taken together with recent figures showing the US has remained fairly resilient despite aggressive rate hikes, the reports fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to avoid a recession.
It’s a week “chock full of economic data that all points to a higher probability of a soft landing,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “This could be the catalyst to send the market to new highs.”
Mega-caps led gains in equities Friday, with the Nasdaq 100 up almost 2% and the S&P 500 rising 1% and notching its third straight weekly advance. Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. each climbed more than 4%, while Intel Corp. rallied about 6.5% on a bullish sales forecast. Bond yields fell alongside the dollar.
Tech firms in the US are talking less about recession and more about artificial intelligence this earnings season — signaling that companies are increasingly optimistic about a soft economic landing.
Nearly half of the Nasdaq 100 firms have reported their results, and executives are less frequently using words like “headwinds”, “inflation”, and “recession” in calls with investors, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
That’s a sharp reversal from last year, when such concerns drove steep equity losses.
With the macro environment being quite powerful right now, investors are buying the notion that the Fed has been able to bring inflation down without a recession, according to David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US.
“The market has had a trifecta of good news over the last few weeks,” Donabedian said. “Inflation is coming down, the economy is holding steady, and earnings thus far are coming in ahead of expectations. This is fueling a strong market environment and the rally continues.”
In what looked like a “sell the rumor, buy the news” episode, US markets saw a reversal from Thursday, when anxiety was running high before the BOJ decision.
Governor Kazuo Ueda announced Friday the central bank would allow yields to rise above a ceiling it now calls a point of reference.
That paves the way for a future normalization of policy that has implications for a wide range of global assets and markets heavily exposed to Japanese money.
Yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds jumped to their highest since 2014 as investors speculated whether this tweak monetary policy.
Any significant adjustment to the YCC policy would have implications for the Treasury market given that Japan households are one of the largest buyers of US debt, according to Dennis DeBusschere founder of 22V Research.
The rationale is: if yields in Japan become more attractive, there could be selling of US government bonds to buy the Asian nation’s debt.
“But the actual YCC change was not as dramatic as feared,” he noted.
In corporate news, US regional lenders posted their longest streak of weekly gains since March 2021, bolstered by a merger deal for PacWest Bancorp.
Procter & Gamble Co. rallied Friday as the maker of Gillette razors reported earnings that beat estimates.
Ford Motor Co. slipped as it expects to see losses from electric vehicles hit $4.5 billion this year.
Exxon Mobil Corp. retreated as it fell short of analysts’ expectations with a third straight drop in profit.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1022
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2857
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 141.07 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $29,314.79
* Ether rose 0.8% to $1,873.88
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.95%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.33%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $80.47 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,998 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Rob Verdonck, Tassia Sipahutar, Sujata Rao and Isabelle Lee.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Caution is the eldest child of wisdom. –Victor Hugo, 1802-1885.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
July 27, 1866: Atlantic telegraph cable lays.

July 27, 1953: The Korean War armistice is signed, bringing an end to three years of conflict and establishing a demilitarized zone between North and South Korea.

July 27, 1940: Bugs Bunny made his debut in the Warner Bros. animated cartoon “A Wild Hare.”  Go to article >>

On July 27, 1940: Billboard magazine published its first “music popularity chart” listing best-selling retail records. In first place was “I’ll Never Smile Again” recorded by Tommy Dorsey and His Orchestra, with featured vocalist Frank Sinatra.

Ancient Nero’s Theater ruins found at a hotel site near the Vatican:  Archaeologists discover that the ruins of Nero’s Theater, an imperial theater referred to in ancient Roman texts but never found, have been found under the garden of a future Four Seasons Hotel steps from the Vatican.

Chincoteague wild ponies complete 98th annual swim: Thousands of people gathered to watch the Chincoteague wild ponies make their annual trek across the Assateague Channel.

Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic torch unveiled.  French designer Mathieu Lehanneur has created a sleek Olympic torch for next year’s Games.

Iconic piece of space exploration history goes up for auction:  For around half a million dollars, a bidder can own the first recorded interstellar message from humankind to potential intelligent life in space.

Iconic piece of space exploration history goes up for auction: For around half a million dollars, a bidder can own the first recorded interstellar message from humankind to potential intelligent life in space.

US government is hiding evidence of ‘non-human intelligence’, UFO whistleblower tells Congress
During a congressional hearing on Wednesday (July 26), military witnesses claimed that evidence of non-human technology is being hidden from the public. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New York City, US:  People take part in a ‘Sky-High’ yoga session on the Edge observation deck in Manhattan Photograph: Amr Alfiky/Reuters

Milan, Italy: Performers at the Weeknd’s concert at Ippodromo SNAI La Maura.  Photograph: Sergione Infuso/Corbis/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Vancouver, Canada: Fireworks presented by Team Mexico light up the sky during the 31st Celebration of Light fireworks competition at English Bay in British Columbia Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Market Closes for July 27^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35282.72	-237.40
		-0.67%
S&P 500	4537.41	-29.34
		-0.64%
NASDAQ	14050.11	-77.17
		-0.55%
TSX	20385.47	-176.17
		-0.86%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32891.16	+222.82
		+0.68%
HANG SENG	19639.11	+273.97
		+1.41%
SENSEX	66266.82	-440.38
		-0.66%
FTSE 100*	7692.76	+15.87
		+0.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.614	3.475
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.420	3.314
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9982	3.8668
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0390	3.9344

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7560	0.7571
US $	1.3228	1.3209

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4517	0.6888
US $	1.0978	0.9109

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1966.30	1958.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.09	78.78

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1694, amid choral chants of “Laus Deo” (Praise the Lord), the Bank of England opened for business in London to print currency and manage the national debt.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.9% at 20,385.47 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.5% on July 6 and follows the previous session’s little change.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 189 of 228 shares fell, while 37 rose.
TC Energy Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%.
StorageVault Canada Inc. had the largest drop, falling 9.3%.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.1%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.8%
* The index advanced 5.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.2% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 14.1% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 on a trailing basis and 14.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.25t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.45% compared with 10.05% in the previous session and the average of 10.74% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -45.0070| -1.8| 10/40
Energy | -40.7744| -1.2| 3/35
Industrials | -20.6698| -0.7| 3/23
Financials | -18.3740| -0.3| 9/20
Communication Services | -13.8344| -1.7| 0/5
Real Estate | -11.5411| -2.3| 0/21
Utilities | -9.7807| -1.1| 2/14
Information Technology | -9.6901| -0.6| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -4.6382| -0.6| 4/11
Consumer Staples | -2.2823| -0.3| 2/9
Health Care | 0.4246| 0.7| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TC Energy | -11.7300| -3.4| 15.0| -12.4
Enbridge | -9.6320| -1.4| -51.7| -8.1
Rogers Communications| -8.6800| -5.5| 231.7| -9.3
First Quantum Minerals | 2.5900| 1.8| 61.4| 32.5
Fairfax Financial | 2.9850| 1.8| -30.1| 30.4
Cenovus Energy | 6.2390| 2.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Just when US traders were trying to take a break from all the anxiety on whether Federal Reserve rate hikes will cause a recession, speculation about a tweak in policy on the other side of the world roiled markets across the board.
Stocks erased gains, Treasury 10-year yields hit 4% and the yen advanced on a news report the Bank of Japan will discuss tolerating higher domestic bond yields at a scheduled meeting Friday.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, the VIX, jumped the most since May.
In late trading, Intel Corp. rose on a bullish revenue forecast.
With the BOJ widely expected to retain its ultra-easy policy, investor focus will now fall on whether authorities use a revision to their inflation forecast as an excuse to tweak the yield curve control program.
If the BOJ adjusts its YCC program, markets will likely take it as the start of a policy tightening cycle,” according to Kristina Clifton at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“Headlines around the potential for the BOJ to discuss widening the YCC were enough to exaggerate the selling pressure in Treasuries in the wake of the 7-year auction,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets. “What had been a collective expectation of unchanged policy was replaced by far more uncertainty.”
Implied volatility in Japan’s bond futures has climbed to a three-month high, signaling wariness over the potential for near-term gyrations.
Equities gained earlier in the day as US gross domestic product unexpectedly picked up steam in the second quarter, while pending home sales unexpectedly climbed in June.
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said his staff had ditched the recession forecast it put in place in March, when banking turmoil had raised fears about a potential credit crunch.
To Mike Loewengart at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office, Thursday’s reports all pointed to a buoyant economy that continues to cruise despite interest rates reaching their highest levels in more than two decades.
“The Fed has been hesitant to close the door on additional rate hikes, and if today’s strong data is any indication, it may have to wait a while longer before it’s comfortable signaling this tightening cycle has run its course,” Loewengart added.
“For now, the indicators are still pointing toward a relatively soft economic landing.”
Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the world economy, estimating that risks have eased in recent months after the US averted a default and authorities staved off a banking crisis on both sides of the Atlantic.
The fund is among a growing number of voices that see a potential American soft landing.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey this month boosted estimates for GDP growth in the second and third quarters, although they still say there’s a 60% chance the US will fall into recession in the next 12 months.
Meantime, investors are still split: 58% of respondents in JPMorgan Chase’s weekly survey expect a soft landing, while 42% are bracing for a recession.
Michelle Cluver, portfolio strategist at Global X ETFs, said despite the growing sentiment the US may avoid a recession, the resilience of the consumer and the economy keeps the focus on the Fed and its September meeting.
To Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab, while the solid US GDP is a positive sign of a strengthening economy, high demand will also reinforce the inflationary pressures that are an “ongoing concern” for policymakers.  “As long as the labor market remains tight and inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target, we can expect to see further rate increases in coming months,” Flynn noted. “The market eagerly awaits the end of the rate hiking cycle, but may be reassured to see that policy has not yet pushed the economy closer to recession as some investors fear.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Meta Platforms Inc. climbed after the social-media company reported strong results for the second quarter and gave an optimistic outlook for the current period.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. advanced after raising its full year profit forecast to a level that significantly beat expectations.
* McDonald’s Corp. rose as sales and profit surpassed analysts’ projections, but the company warned of slower growth later this year amid a challenging economic backdrop.
* Lam Research Corp. climbed after the semiconductor equipment maker gave a strong revenue forecast for its first quarter, prompting analysts to raise their price targets on the stock.
* eBay Inc. dropped after projecting earnings in the current quarter that narrowly missed analysts’ estimates, suggesting the e-commerce company is struggling to perform with a shrinking customer base.
* Southwest Airlines Co. fell after warning of higher-than-expected costs, pressuring the carrier’s earnings and countering gains from a surge in early-summer travel.
Key events this week:
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* BOJ rate decision, Friday
* Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Friday
* US consumer income, employment cost index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 1.1% to $1.0967
* The British pound fell 1.2% to $1.2784
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 139.12 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $29,167.5
* Ether fell 1.1% to $1,860.76
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 13 basis points to 4.00%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.47%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.31%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $79.85 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.3% to $1,982.90 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, Sujata Rao, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can’t use up creativity.  The more you use, the more you have. –Maya Angelou, 1928-2014.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 26, 1963: Sitcom 2, the world’s first geosynchronous communications satellite is launched.  Part of NASA’s Sitcom program, it was responsible for transmitting the first TV signal from a geosynchronous satellite, a manmade satellite whose orbital period around the Earth matches the Earth’s rotation.

July 26, 1964: Teamsters president Jimmy Hoffa and six others were convicted of fraud and conspiracy in the handling of a union pension fund.  Go to article >>

Mick Jagger, musician, b. 1943.  OMG! Mick Jagger turns 80 years old today.
Aldous Huxley, writer, b. 1894
Carl Jung, psychoanalyst, b. 1875.
George Bernard Shaw, writer,  b. 1856.

The surprising list of actors who were up to play Ken in ‘Barbie’.  Ryan Gosling delivered all the “energy” one could ask for. But just for kicks, here are the other actors who might have gotten the role.

Gulf Stream current could collapse in 2025, plunging Earth into climate chaos: ‘We were actually bewildered’
Researchers have predicted the collapse of the AMOC could happen any time between 2025 and 2095 — far sooner than previous predictions, although not all scientists are convinced. Read More
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
People visit Luke Jerram’s sculpture, Mars: War & Peace, a Model of the Red Planet, at the Kensington and Chelsea festival
Photograph: Raşid Necati Aslım/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Berlin, Germany
People visit the Devouring Lovers installation by the Spanish artist Eva Fàbregas at Hamburger Bahnhof National Gallery
Photograph: David Gannon/AFP/Getty Images

Albany, Australia
Volunteers try to help pilot whales after more than 50 died in a stranding on Cheynes Beach
Photograph: Western Australia Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 26^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35520.12	+82.05
		+0.23%
S&P 500	4566.75	-0.71
		-0.02%
NASDAQ	14127.28	-14.28
		-0.12%
TSX	20561.64	+10.11
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32668.34	-14.17
		-0.04%
HANG SENG	19365.14	-69.29
		-0.36%
SENSEX	66707.20	+351.49
		+0.53%
FTSE 100*	7676.89	-14.91
		-0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.475	3.515
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.314	3.340
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.8668	3.8845
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9344	3.9288

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7571	0.7591
US $	1.3208	1.3173

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4644	0.6829
US $	1.1087	0.9020

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1958.70	1960.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.78	80.03

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1786, the earliest known U.S. stock and bond tables were published in the Massachusetts Centinel.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 20,561.64 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest increase, rising 15.9%.
Today, 123 of 228 shares rose, while 99 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 2%
* The index advanced 8.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 15% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 on a trailing basis and 14.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.25t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.05% compared with 10.05% in the previous session and the average of 10.78% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 21.0089| 0.3| 22/7
Industrials | 17.8979| 0.6| 18/8
Energy | 6.7520| 0.2| 24/14
Consumer Discretionary | 3.5857| 0.4| 10/3
Health Care | 1.7360| 3.0| 2/2
Real Estate | 1.4882| 0.3| 16/5
Utilities | -0.8851| -0.1| 7/9
Communication Services | -1.5697| -0.2| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -7.5346| -0.9| 3/8
Materials | -10.9977| -0.4| 19/29
Information Technology | -21.3762| -1.3| 1/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD| Index | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 11.7200| 1.7| 55.6| 9.8
TD Bank | 9.8610| 0.9| -46.5| -1.9
Rogers Communications | 4.3400| 2.8| 72.5| -4.0
Teck Resources | -5.8390| -3.2| 56.7| 9.9
Constellation Software| -6.4540| -1.7| 6.5| 33.7
CGI Inc | -8.9360| -4.5| 196.6| 10.8
================================================================
| | Index |Volume VS | YTD| | Points | 20D AVG | Change Biggest Gainers | % Change | Move | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Tilray Brands | 15.9| 1.5590| 335.9| -30.5
MAG Silver | 10.5| 0.9990| 149.7| -22.6
TFI International | 4.3| 3.8500| 85.5| 25.0
================================================================
| |Index Points| Volume VS |YTD Change Biggest Losers | % Change | Move |20D AVG (%)| (%)
================================================================
CGI Inc | -4.5| -8.9360| 196.6| 10.8
Teck Resources | -3.2| -5.8390| 56.7| 9.9
George Weston | -2.7| -1.8710| 44.7| -9.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — There was something for every Wall Street bull and bear in Jerome Powell’s remarks Wednesday, but the market finished the day betting the Federal Reserve’s next move will possibly be a skip.
Two-year US yields dropped alongside the dollar.
Stocks rebounded from session lows, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its 13th straight advance — the longest winning run since 1987.
In late trading, Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. climbed after projecting revenue that beat estimates while eBay Inc. fell on a disappointing profit outlook.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to the highest level in 22 years, and Powell said further hikes will be “data dependent” as officials fine-tune their effort to further quell inflation.
Swaps referencing future decisions priced in slightly lower odds of another increase this year, which ebbed to 47%.
Comments:
Rajeev Sharma, managing director of fixed income at Key Private Bank:
“In our opinion, the rate hiking cycle is done and the Fed will now pause for the rest of the year. The latest market reaction also supports this thesis with yields dipping slightly across the front end of the yield curve.”
Frances Donald, global chief economist at Manulife Investment Management:
“We now believe that the Fed is on a prolonged ‘hawkish hold’. In our base case, their next move will likely be a cut but it will take until 2024 until we see it. That said, Powell will have no choice but to keep the threat of hikes alive, lest he encourage markets to prematurely price in cuts and reignite inflation expectations.”
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance:
“Bears can point to Powell’s insistence that all meetings are live and that core inflation is ‘pretty elevated,’ and bulls can point to Powell’s insistence that they could easily skip the next meeting and keep rates unchanged in September.”
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management:
“While the statement is a yawner, the broad signal is of a Fed that considers each monetary policy meeting as ‘live’. Data dependence remains the buzzword and, given the confusing signals of waning inflation but a tight labor market, keeping all options on the table seems to be a sensible approach.”
Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda:
“The Fed is keeping optionality for future rate increases, but it probably won’t need them. The disinflation process will remain as the economy is weakening, and the corporate world should start feeling the impact of tighter credit conditions.”
Preston Caldwell, chief US economist at Morningstar:
“We expect today’s meeting to be the Fed’s final rate hike.  Even with economic growth showing no signs yet of slowing to the below-trend growth rate usually needed to cause broad-based disinflationary pressure in the economy, inflation is nevertheless showing signs of abating due to relaxing of supply side constraints. As such, we expect the Fed to pause on rate hikes in its final three meetings of 2023.”
Jon Maier, chief investment officer at Global X:
“Now, it looks like the Fed might be closing in on the end of its current cycle of rate hikes. But they’re not painting themselves into a corner – they’re keeping an option open for another possible rate increase later this year. It shows they’re staying flexible and ready to respond to any economic twists and turns that might come up.”
David Russell, vice president of Market Intelligence at TradeStation:
“The Fed is in wait-and-see mode. They’re going to get two more months of employment and inflation data before the September meeting, so there’s no reason to make any changes now.  Investors can now put this behind them and get back to earnings.”
Another driver of trading Wednesday was the large batch of earnings reports, with results from big tech being highly scrutinized after the shares notched a historic advance in the first six months of the year.
Google parent Alphabet Inc. climbed to a 15-month high as revenue beat expectations, while Microsoft Corp. fell the most since January on a tepid sales growth and Texas Instruments Inc.’s lukewarm forecast weighed on chipmakers.
“Big tech earnings have been very Darwinian, and investors are only rewarding the companies that truly post strong results,” David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group. “After extreme gains so far this year in big tech stocks, we have now moved to a phase where each company’s stock price is very non-correlated to one another.”

Corporate Highlights
* Boeing Co. rose after generating $2.58 billion in free cash flow in the second quarter, far exceeding expectations, amid a flurry of jet deliveries.
* Regional banks climbed as news that PacWest Bancorp is being bought by Banc of California bolstered confidence in the industry. Wells Fargo & Co. paced gains in larger lenders on plans to repurchase as much as $30 billion of its shares.
* Rail giant Union Pacific Corp. advanced after appointing Jim Vena as its new chief executive officer. Retailer Gap Inc. gained after naming Mattel Inc.’s Richard Dickson as its next CEO.
* Coca-Cola Co. rose after raising its full-year guidance after second-quarter results show continued momentum and consumer willingness to pay higher prices to quench their thirst with the company’s sugary sodas, fruit juices and sports drinks.
* AT&T Inc. advanced on profit and free cash flow that topped analysts’ estimates, offering a brighter picture as the phone giant faces a challenging restructuring effort, a heavy debt load and the potentially high costs of cleaning lead out of its old copper phone network.
* Visa Inc. posted card-spending growth that was more robust than Wall Street expected as consumer demand for travel and dining out remained strong last quarter.
* Snap Inc. fell after projecting revenue at the lower end of analysts’ estimates for this quarter, signaling that improvements to the digital advertising business are taking

Key events this week:
* China industrial profits, Thursday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* BOJ rate decision, Friday
* Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Friday
* US consumer income, employment cost index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1095
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2946
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 140.25 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $29,411.02
* Ether rose 0.6% to $1,873.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.86%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.48%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.28%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $78.93 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,015.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, Sujata Rao, Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee and Michael Mackenzie

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Power does not corrupt men; fools, however, if they get into a position of power, corrupt power. –George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 25, 1885: Louis Pasteur successfully administers the firs rabies vaccine to a human, revolutionizing the field of immunization and paving the way for advancements in preventing infectious diseases.
July 25, 1978 The first baby conceived by in-vitro fertilization was born in Oldham, England.  Go to article >>

Pilgrimage of St. Anne d’Auray, France.
St. James the Great Day, Christian calendar.

Moviegoers have spotted a blooper in ‘Oppenheimer’.  Eagle-eyed fans noticed that some American flags used in the film bear the wrong number of stars.

The rise of gig workers is changing the face of the US economy.  Labor market experts say the number of gig workers is growing, and their alternative working arrangements are rippling through the economy.

Casey Phair becomes youngest player in World Cup history.  South Korea forward Casey Phair became the youngest player to appear at the World Cup — just a few weeks after celebrating her 16th birthday.

Twitter’s new logo ‘X’ is set to kill billions in brand value

Invisible barrier that runs through Indonesia finally explained by scientists
Researchers now understand why there is an uneven distribution of animal species on either side of the Wallace Line. Read More.

Bizarre ‘relic galaxy’ is missing a key component of the universe, and scientists are stumped
A massive galaxy far from Earth seems to be entirely devoid of dark matter, contrary to all accepted cosmological models. Read More.

AI is transforming every aspect of science. Here’s how.
In the future, research labs will embrace the transformative potential of artificial intelligence to speed up scientific discovery. Read More.

Grizzly bear believed to have killed woman on Buttermilk Trail near Yellowstone National Park
The suspected attack comes after officials warned that grizzly bears were moving into new areas in the state. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Gilgit, Pakistan: A view of K2, the world’s second tallest mountain, from Concordia camp in the Karakoram range of Gilgit-Baltistan.  Photograph: Joe Stenson/AFP/Getty Images

San Francisco, US: A worker removes letters from the Twitter sign that is posted on the exterior of Twitter headquarters in California. Workers began removing the letters from the sign outside Twitter headquarters less than 24 hours after the firm’s CEO, Elon Musk, officially rebranded Twitter as X and has changed its iconic bird logo, the biggest change he has made since taking over the social media platform. San Francisco police halted the sign removal shortly after it began.  Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Rhodes, Greece: A wildfire in Vati village. A third successive heatwave in Greece pushed temperatures back above 40C across parts of the country following more evacuations from fires.  Photograph: Petros Giannakouris/AP
Market Closes for July 25^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35438.07	+26.83
		+0.08%
S&P 500	4567.46	+12.82
		+0.28%
NASDAQ	14144.55	+85.68
		+0.61%
TSX	20551.53	-30.59
		-0.15%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32682.51	-18.43
		-0.06%
HANG SENG	19434.40	+766.25
		+4.10%
SENSEX	66355.71	-29.07
		-0.04%
FTSE 100*	7691.80	+13.21
		+0.17%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.515	3.498
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.340	3.335
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.8845	3.8725
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9288	3.9242

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7591	0.7592
US $	1.3173	1.3172

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4561	0.6868
US $	1.1055	0.9046

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1960.00	1960.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.03	78.89

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1893, nearly one-quarter of U.S. railroads were heading into bankruptcy. It was the low point of the Panic of 1893 and caused the New York Stock Exchange to nearly close down.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 20,551.53 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
TC Energy Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.7%. ATS Corp. had the largest drop, falling 5.1%.
Today, 91 of 228 shares fell, while 133 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 2%
* The index advanced 7.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 15% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 on a trailing basis and 14.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month  basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.26t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.05% compared with 10.05% in the previous session and the average of 10.82% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -49.5574| -0.8| 14/15
Information Technology | -8.9201| -0.6| 6/5
Energy | -8.3943| -0.2| 20/20
Communication Services | -6.6562| -0.8| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -2.5541| -0.3| 4/7
Health Care | -0.1660| -0.3| 2/2
Utilities | 0.4952| 0.1| 7/7
Consumer Discretionary | 1.0251| 0.1| 7/8
Industrials | 1.3005| 0.0| 14/12
Real Estate | 1.6351| 0.3| 14/6
Materials | 41.1867| 1.7| 44/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TC Energy | -17.1000| -4.7| 16.6| -10.2
Bank of Nova Scotia| -14.6700| -2.6| 52.7| -1.5
TD Bank | -13.9600| -1.3| -50.6| -2.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 5.0140| 0.7| 24.8| 8.1
First Quantum Minerals | 5.6500| 4.2| 10.0| 27.7
Canadian Natural Resources | 6.7500| 1.1| -39.0| 5.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in big tech drove stocks higher, with traders counting on the earnings season to see whether the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence will justify this year’s market advance.
In late trading, a $210 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) advanced as Google parent Alphabet Inc. reported revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
Microsoft Corp. fell on tepid sales growth, while Texas Instruments Inc. gave a lukewarm earnings forecast.
The S&P 500 hit its highest since April 2022 on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq 100 outperformed and the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its 12th straight advance — the longest winning run on over six years. On the eve of the Federal Reserve decision, consumer confidence data bolstered the soft-landing narrative, while suggesting policymakers aren’t done with their inflation fight yet.
With the S&P 500 just about 5% away from its all-time high, elevated bullish positioning and indicators pointing to overbought levels, many investors are counting on earnings to make a decision on where to go from here.
That’s especially true when it comes to big tech, with the Nasdaq 100 continuing to push higher even after an over $5 trillion rally that has spurred concerns about overstretched valuations.
“The next couple of weeks will be when the proverbial rubber hits the road for the Nasdaq 100,” said Matthew Weller, global head of research at Forex.com and City Index. “With the index still hovering near bull-market highs and up more than 40% on the year, investor expectations are clearly elevated — leaving little room for error.”
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, dropped four basis points to 4.88%.
The dollar halted a five-day advance.
Rates on swap contracts continued to price in a quarter percentage-point Fed hike on Wednesday, with an additional 12.5 basis point increase factored in by year-end.
That indicates a 50% likelihood of another quarter-point move.
In other corporate news, Banc of California climbed on a news report it’s in advanced talks to buy PacWest Bancorp, which fell.
General Electric Co. and 3M Co. climbed after reporting earnings that blew past Wall Street’s expectations.
iRobot Corp. dropped after Amazon.com Inc. said it’s paying less to acquire the Roomba maker.
There are so many bulls in the US stock market that any disappointment on the economy or earnings poses a risk to the rally, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists.
Investor exposure to the S&P 500 remains extended and one-sided, even after bullish momentum has waned in recent weeks, a team including Chris Montagu said.
Given that Wall Street had set a low bar coming into the reporting season, roughly 80% of the companies have thus far beaten profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“We are about to enter the height of earnings season,” said Brad Bernstein, managing director at UBS Wealth Management. “As long as earnings continue to exceed expectations, the market can continue to move higher.”
For traders who closely follow Fibonacci analysis, the S&P 500 Index this month crossed above 4,505 to reach the 76.4% retracement of its peak-to-trough decline from its January 2022 high and its subsequent October low.
Since 1929, when the benchmark equities gauge suffered a bear market decline of at least 20% or more, this retracement level proved to be the start of a new uptrend, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
So the index finishing above that level implies a bottom has definitely been set.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1053
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2900
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 140.88 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $29,193.95
* Ether rose 0.3% to $1,856.89
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 3.88%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.27%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $79.59 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,005.20 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jason Scott, Tassia Sipahutar, Sujata Rao and Isabelle Lee.
Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Power does not corrupt men; fools, however, if they get into a position of power, corrupt power. –George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

July 24, 1911: American explorer Hiram Bingham discovers Machu Picchu, the Lost City of the Incas.
Beginning of Mata Hari’s trial
Dutch-born dancer and courtesan Mata Hari, whose name became a synonym for the seductive female spy, went on trial this day in 1917, accused of spying for Germany, and was subsequently found guilty and shot by a firing squad. Go to article >>

Amelia Eargart, aviatrix, b. 1898.
Alexandre Dumas, writer, b. 1802.
Jennifer Lopez,b.1970.
‘Barbie’ breaks box-office records.  The movie raked in a stunning $155 million during its opening weekend, but not everyone is seeing it through rose-colored glasses. Read why some voices on the right are urging a boycott of the film.

A ‘gravity hole’ in the Indian Ocean has remained a mystery — until now.  Humans often think about Earth as a perfect sphere, but that’s far from the truth. Some spots on the planet — like this one — have a weaker gravitational pull, making Earth look more like a lumpy potato, according to scientists.

Jonas Vingegaard seals his second consecutive Tour de France victory.  With a wide smile, the Dane secured another victory on the Champs-Élysées in Paris.

Clearest-ever seafloor maps show deep-sea ‘Grand Canyon’ off US coast in stunning detail
A massive deep-sea ravine in the Pacific Ocean has been mapped out in greater detail than any other part of the world’s seafloor. Read More.

Scientists just made the largest quasicrystal ever – because one of them bet it couldn’t be done
The quasicrystal, a type of non-repeating crystal once deemed impossible, was made by jiggling thousands of metal balls in a tray for over a week. Read More.

Master copy of the Voyager Golden Record, designed as an audio postcard for intelligent aliens, is up for auction
Carl Sagan’s personal copy of the Voyager Golden Record contains 27 pieces of music and 22 minutes of sound meant to capture the beauty of life on Earth. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Tynemouth, UK
The bad weather continues in some parts of the UK as waves crash over the pier at Tynemouth
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Mendoza, Argentina
A group of people, including relatives of passengers of a Uruguayan air force plane that crashed in the remote Andes mountains in the Argentine province of Mendoza, on the border with Chile, on 13 October 1972, with 45 people onboard including members of a rugby team, ride on horseback to the site of the accident
Photograph: Mariana Suárez/AFP/Getty Images

Rhodes, Greece
Smoke billows in the background of Kiotari village. Tens of thousands of people have fled blazes on the island of Rhodes, with many tourists scrambling to get home
Photograph: Spyros Bakalis/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 24^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35411.24	+183.55
		+0.52%
S&P 500	4554.64	+18.30
		+0.40%
NASDAQ	14058.87	+26.06
		+0.19%
TSX	20582.12	+34.61
		+0.17%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32700.94	+396.69
		+1.23%
HANG SENG	18668.15	-407.11
		-2.13%
SENSEX	66384.78	-299.48
		-0.45%
FTSE 100*	7678.59	+14.86
		+0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.498	3.412
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.335	3.262
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.8725	3.8349
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9242	3.8992

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7592	0.7563
US $	1.3172	1.3222

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4573	0.6862
US $	1.1064	0.9038

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1960.60	1976.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.89	77.17

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1987, ZZZZ Best’s assets were sold at a bankruptcy auction for $62,000. Just months earlier, Barry Minkow’s carpet-cleaning company had a market value of roughly $300 million. But ZZZZ Best had virtually no customers, revenues or assets. Minkow, who had set up an elaborate system of phantom offices and phony account records, served five years in federal prison.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.2%, or 34.61 to 20,582.12 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since May 9.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%. Cenovus Energy Inc. had the largest increase, rising 2.7%.
Today, 111 of 228 shares rose, while 115 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.1%
* The index advanced 8.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 15.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.8% in the past 5 days and rose 6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 14.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.25t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.05% compared with 10.04% in the previous session and the average of 10.86% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 29.0805| 0.8| 32/7
Financials | 6.8921| 0.1| 9/20
Information Technology | 2.9411| 0.2| 5/6
Real Estate | 2.5629| 0.5| 16/5
Materials | 0.3995| 0.0| 13/36
Health Care | 0.0835| 0.1| 2/2
Industrials | -0.0800| 0.0| 8/18
Utilities | -1.1968| -0.1| 7/9
Consumer Staples | -1.8604| -0.2| 7/4
Consumer Discretionary | -1.9001| -0.2| 9/6
Communication Services | -2.3263| -0.3| 3/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | | Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.2000| 2.1| -15.7| 4.6
RBC | 10.0200| 0.8| -39.8| 3.7
Nutrien | 7.8780| 2.7| 42.8| -11.8
Couche-Tard | -2.5370| -0.7| -40.8| 12.9
Restaurant Brands | -3.2220| -1.4| -31.9| 15.6
TC Energy | -9.5870| -2.6| 45.1| -5.7

Related News headlines:
* Stocks Kick Off Busy Earnings Week With Mild Gains: Markets Wrap
* Canadian Stocks Gain, Led by Information Technology
* Alberta Oil Output Recover in June Post Maintenance, Fires: AER
* Nutrien Shares Rise As Wells Fargo Sees Growth Opportunity (1)
* Bayer FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A pivotal week for markets started with small gains in stocks as traders braced for rate decisions from major central banks and a deluge of corporate earnings.
In the run-up to the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s gatherings, investors got a reminder about the side- effects of aggressive policy tightening. Disappointing data from both the US andeuro-area added to bets officials are close to ending their hiking cycles to prevent a recession. Aside from the economic picture, global companies with a combined $27 trillion in value were set to report results, including giants Microsoft Corp., LVMH and Samsung Electronics Co.
“This week will offer plenty of opportunity to test the stock-market rally that began on Oct. 12,” said John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
“Traders will be seeking to gain further insight into the direction the markets are likely to take from here.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for an 11th straight day — its longest winning run since 2017. The S&P 500 traded near 4,550, while the Nasdaq 100 underperformed after a “special rebalance” that took effect Monday. Two-year US bond rates climbed as an auction drew the highest yield since 2007. The dollar was little changed. Bitcoin briefly fell below $29,000.
West Texas Intermediate crude topped $78 a barrel. Wheat and corn gained as Russia attacked one of Ukraine’s biggest Danube river ports.
Among the corporate highlights, Tesla Inc. advanced after disclosing strong sales outside the US and China. Apple Inc. gained as Bloomberg News reported the company is keeping its iPhone shipments steady despite the 2023 turmoil. AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. climbed as a surprise court ruling Friday scuttled a stock conversion plan the cinema chain has now revised. Chevron Corp. rose on solid earnings.
The delayed impact of aggressive interest-rate hikes by global central banks, dwindling consumer savings and a “deeply troubling” geopolitical backdrop are poised to spur fresh market declines and renewed volatility, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic. Kolanovic also noted that the stock-price reaction to earnings reports is expected to be muted as the market was strong coming into the second-quarter reporting season.
Investors have mostly shrugged off positive earnings surprises from companies that reported results so far, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp. Moves were on average 1.3 percentage points larger than implied by the options market, but the direction was skewed to the downside.
“This suggests increased positioning risk and good news having been priced in,” BofA strategists led by Savita Subramanian added.
To Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, tech may “hold the key” to the continuation of the near-term bullish enthusiasm of stock traders as big names get ready to report their quarterly numbers.
Indeed, the stakes are high for heavyweight technology firms, which have fueled an advance of over 40% for the Nasdaq 100 this year. The “big seven” — Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Nvidia Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Alphabet Inc., Tesla and Microsoft — now trade at a record premium to the bottom 493 stocks in the S&P 500, according to BofA’s Subramanian.
“We expect big tech earnings to be mixed and the real test will be for companies that have significant exposure to artificial intelligence as investors are eager to see if these companies can report strong enough results to support their significantly elevated share prices in recent months,” said James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research.
The S&P 500’s high valuation is reasonable and could rise further this year as laggards of the index join the surge in winners from artificial intelligence, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
While the base-case scenario is for the S&P 500’s price-to- earnings ratio to shrink slightly to 19 times from the current level of about 20 by the end of 2023, the risks to valuations are now skewed to the upside, strategists led by David J Kostin said.
Meantime, Glenmede’s Global Expected Returns Model shows valuations on US large-cap equities currently sit at the 77^th percentile — which implies 22% downside if valuations were to revert to fair value.
“Recession beginning later this year or early next remains the base case, a likelihood which is not reflected in equity valuations,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede.
The outlook for the world’s largest economy will likely hinge on the Fed’s willingness to tolerate inflation markedly higher than it would prefer. After taking a break from tightening last month, Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues look locked in to raising interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday.
The big question facing policymakers and financial markets at this stage is what comes next.
“The market is pretty well signaling another 25-basis point rate hike is in the cards,” said George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank. “People are probably looking past the announcement itself and then trying to glean some read in terms of what happens later this year.”
Whether the Fed gives investors a reason to sell or there’s a big earnings disappointment this week, the market is ripe for a decline into the fall, according to Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.
“For now, that decline is not something to upset the longer-term trajectory of the market,” he noted.

Key events this week:
* US Conf. Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
* US new home sales, Wednesday
* FOMC rate decision, Fed Chair Powell news conference, Wednesday
* China industrial profits, Thursday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* BOJ rate decision, Friday
* Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Friday
* US consumer income, employment cost index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1062
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2817
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 141.52 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.4% to $29,121.49
* Ether fell 2.3% to $1,849.92
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.87%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.26%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $78.92 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,994.80 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, Sujata Rao and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
A loving person lives in a loving world.  A hostile person lives in a hostile world:
everyone you meet is your mirror. -Ken Keyes, 1921-1995.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com