Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Bastille Day today.
July 14, 1789: Storming of the Bastille occurs in Paris, symbolizing the start of the French Revolution.
On July 13, 1977, a 25-hour blackout hit the New York City area after lightning struck upstate power lines. Go to article.

Isaac Bashevis Singer, writer, b. 1904.
Woody Guthrie, musician, b. 1912.
Gerald Ford, 38^th President, b. 1913.
Ingmar Bergman, director, b. 1918

Collapse of key Atlantic currents may be held off by newly-discovered back-up system, study finds
Rising temperatures in the North Atlantic are slowing vital currents, but a new process in the Arctic could save the day, scientists say.  Read More.

Ancient Egyptian rock art discovered near Aswan may be from the dawn of the first dynasty
Newfound rock art from ancient Egypt may shed light on the time just before the first dynasty. Read More.

The Perseids are coming — here’s how to watch the glorious meteor shower before the moon ruins the show
As many as 100 “shooting stars” per hour can be visible, but a bright moon on the peak of the Perseids on Aug. 12 and 13 means evasive action is required. Read More.

Experimental treatment for high cholesterol edits DNA in the body to reduce LDL
An experimental treatment called VERVE-102 lowers the amount of “bad” cholesterol in the blood of people with specific cholesterol-raising conditions. Read More.

Japan sets new internet speed record — it’s 4 million times faster than average US broadband speeds
A team of scientists in Japan shattered the record for the fastest internet speed by developing new fiber optics. Read More.

Wimbledon champs crowned
Tennis star Iga Świątek dominated her singles final against American Amanda Anisimova over the weekend. In the men’s division, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner won his first Wimbledon title against two-time reigning champ Carlos Alcaraz.

Guilty pleasure gatherings
“Love Island USA” is hugely popular, especially with Gen Z. But many fans aren’t just watching the reality TV show. They’re showing up for each other.

Craving some ‘SWAG’?
Justin Bieber surprised fans by dropping his first new studio album in four years.

Retire at 83? Nah!
Former Beatle Paul McCartney plans to go back on tour this September.

Man’s best (super)friend
Did you catch the new “Superman” movie over the weekend? If so, you may enjoy reading more about that furry scene stealer, Krypto.

‘Can’t beat the view’ 
Astronauts Nichole Ayers and Anne McClain reveal what life is like aboard the International Space Station.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Your Hand in Mine
Shows a physical process in action (eg aurora, wave motion, volcanism). Standing silently on the tiled siltstone of the ‘tessellated pavement’, this couple watched the immense geomagnetic phenomenon we call the aurora australis exploding in the sky above them. The pavement, comprising 250-280m year old rocks, slowly morphed into patterns that look astoundingly manmade, due to Earth’s movement and jointing combined with continual sea salt erosion.
Photograph: Jordan Cripps

In a new light: an infrared perspective of Australia’s capital – in pictures
Photographer Mick Tsikas has turned his camera capable of capturing hidden infrared light in Canberra. The result underscores how lush the national capital is
Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Nevsehir, Turkey
Hot air balloons take off at sunrise, creating stunning views over the valleys of Cappadocia
Photograph: Behcet Alkan/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 14^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44459.65	+88.14
		+0.20%
S&P 500	6268.56	+8.81
		+0.14%
NASDAQ	20640.33	+54.80
		+0.27%
TSX	27198.85	+175.60
		+0.65%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39459.62	-110.06
		-0.28%
HANG SENG	24203.32	+63.75
		+0.26%
SENSEX	82253.46	-247.01
		-0.30%
FTSE 100*	8998.06	+56.94
		+0.64%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.518	3.500
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.834	3.809
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4333	4.4093
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9770	4.9491

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7297	0.7304
US $	1.3704	1.3691

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5987	0.6255
US $	1.1665	0.8572

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3352.10	3312.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.45	68.45

Market Commentary:
The dollar is our currency but your problem.  –US Treasury Secretary John Connally, 1971.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 27,198.85 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.7% on June 26 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.3%.
Thomson Reuters Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.7%.
Today, 143 of 213 shares rose, while 61 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 25.6% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.64% compared with 5.81% in the previous session and the average of 6.16% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 70.5813| 2.7| 9/0
Energy | 37.0551| 0.9| 27/10
Industrials | 31.1585| 0.9| 22/7
Financials | 26.9665| 0.3| 20/5
Consumer Staples | 6.7661| 0.7| 7/2
Utilities | 4.6678| 0.5| 12/2
Real Estate | 3.9560| 0.8| 18/1
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4984| 0.4| 6/3
Health Care | -0.0041| 0.0| 2/1
Communication Services | -1.1478| -0.2| 1/4
Materials | -7.8776| -0.2| 19/26
Shopify | 55.6000| 4.3| 17.1| 4.5
Thomson Reuters | 19.9100| 7.7| 355.7| 27.2
Enbridge | 14.4700| 1.6| 43.4| 1.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.9780| -0.8| -53.3| -1.8
Canadian National | -5.9530| -1.1| -35.9| -2.5
CIBC | -6.9650| -1.1| -22.1| 8.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a fresh record high on Monday following last week’s announcement of 35% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 175.60 points at 27,198.85, topping the previous high, set Thursday, of 27,082.3.
Information Technology and Industrials led the sectors, rising 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively.
Base Metals was the biggest decliner, down 1.6%.
BMO’s Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski, in his ‘Canadian Strategy Snapshot’ noted that since the market’s recent low in early April, the bank’s models show a clear broadening of performance across Canadian equities.
Notably, valuation and capital usage factors showed a “reversal quarter,” and are now ahead year-to-date-signaling a shift toward a more balanced and rational market environment.
“We expect this dynamic to proceed throughout the remainder of 2025 as the heightened rhetoric and fear-driven melee surrounding tariffs and macro uncertainty continues to abate,” Belski said, adding that investors should stay focused on long-term strategies, particularly GARP-style (growth at a reasonable price) approaches that combine growth, value, and quality.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said markets are showing mild risk-off sentiment to start a busy week, with several potential factors at play.
North American equity futures are slightly lower, down about 0.25% in the U.S. and even less in Canada.
In currencies, the picture is also mixed.
While the U.S. dollar remains strong, other major currencies like the yen, euro, and Canadian dollar are also holding their ground.
The Canadian dollar is likely still benefiting from Friday’s strong jobs report.
Sovereign bond markets are reacting in varied ways, with U.S. and Canadian yields edging higher, while UK gilts and European government bonds are seeing a bull steepening, he added.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Monday on rising supply and the threat of slowing global economies as U.S President Donald Trump renewed his tariff threats.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$1.47 to settle at US$66.98 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down US$1.04 to US$69.32.
Gold edged lower midafternoon on Monday as the dollar rose for a sixth-straight session.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$7.00 to US$3,357.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders parsing Donald Trump’s latest tariff remarks sent stocks mildly higher, with the market gearing up for results from big banks and inflation data.
Bond yields and the dollar edged up.
Oil fell as the US president’s plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine didn’t include new measures aimed directly at hindering Moscow’s energy exports.
The S&P 500 hovered near its record as Trump indicated he’s open to trade talks, even as he insisted the letters threatening new rates are “the deals.”
While Corporate America is bracing for its weakest earnings season since mid-2023, lower estimates could be easier for companies to beat.
As US financial giants kick off earnings season Tuesday, strategists say subdued profit expectations are setting the stage for their sizzling run to continue.
President Trump unleashed more tariff threats this weekend, declaring a 30% rate for Mexico and the European Union, and informing key trading partners of new rates that will kick in on Aug. 1 if they cannot negotiate better terms.
“We view the latest move from the White House as a negotiating tactic and maintain our base case that the US effective tariff rate will settle around 15%, which we believe will allow the S&P 500 to rise further over the coming 12 months,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
A 22V Research survey showed investors see the average effective tariff rate at 17%.
They also estimate tariffs will add 28 basis points to core inflation in 2025.
This is almost half of what was expected last month.
In the run-up to the consumer price index, Treasuries saw mild losses.
After months of seeing little inflation, the CPI probably experienced slightly faster growth in June as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
The moves in bonds also reflected investor concern about governments’ abilities to contain budget deficits.
Bitcoin briefly topped $120,000.
“The stock market’s muted reaction to the latest volley of tariff headlines suggests investors may be growing numb to them or are deciding that the tariff bark will likely be worse than the eventual bite,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
To Emily Bowersock Hill, investors have become inured to the tariff drama, arguably to the point of complacency, and the S&P 500 is now overpriced.
“Absent a negative surprise, we expect the complacency to continue, particularly given the equity market’s upward momentum,” said the founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners.
After months of seeing little inflation, June’s consumer price index probably experienced slightly faster growth as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
“Inflation pressures have remained muted so far, but tariffs will eventually feed through pushing prints higher and creating some discomfort for the Fed,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
Meantime, the survey from 22V Research also showed that 67% of investors think core CPI is on a Fed friendly glide path.
In addition, 42% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk-on,” 29% said “mixed” and 29% “risk-off.”
“I don’t think people are viewing any of the data points expected over this week as being materially indicative of how to position portfolios,” said Josh Rubin at Thornburg Investment Management.
“We’re still in a waiting game around tariff policies as well as additional inflation and employment data that could influence Fed decision-making, and broader geopolitical developments, which are also in a quiet period.”
Rubin notes that activity naturally slows down during the summer period, and while investors will pay attention to earnings, most won’t view them as highly indicative of companies’ future outlooks, rather waiting to hear about any updated thoughts on tariff policy.
“We are not out of the woods just yet, as the next few weeks will be pivotal to see how countries respond to the administration’s new Aug. 1 tariff deadline,” said Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management.
“The big question for markets in the coming weeks is if earnings, which are expected to be solid, can overshadow the tariff issues.”
Investors already expect a sluggish second quarter, so the bigger risk may be to the back half of the year, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Will management again tell a good story about the consumer and its customers, providing some stability (or even upward revisions) to third and fourth-quarter earnings?” he said.
“If so, stocks could react favorably to that development.
If not though, and estimates are instead revised lower, stocks may decline as they reflect this new reality.”
US mega caps are attractive as they’re likely to be boosted by the fiscal spending bill as well as a robust earnings outlook, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
Meantime, RBC Capital Markets strategists including Lori Calvasina lifted their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,250 from 5,730.
The new level “is midway between the median and average of five different models,” they said.
“We still see a wide range of outcomes in our modeling which we think reflects a high degree of uncertainty.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. shareholders will vote on whether to invest in Elon Musk’s xAI, the billionaire said, after the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX agreed to pump $2 billion into the artificial intelligence startup.
* Investigators of the fatal Air India crash last month have found no evidence so far that would require them to take actions over the Boeing Co. 787 aircraft or the GE engines powering it.
* Autodesk Inc. is no longer pursuing an acquisition of PTC Inc., people familiar with the matter said, which would have ranked as one of the year’s largest deals.
* Kenvue Inc. said Chief Executive Officer Thibaut Mongon will leave the company as it continues to revamp the maker of Tylenol, Neutrogena and Listerine brands.
* CoreWeave Inc. is expanding a data center that is projected to double the electricity needs of a city near Dallas, another example of the strains that artificial intelligence workloads are placing on the US power supply.
* Best Buy Co. was downgraded to neutral at Piper Sandler, which cited lack of catalysts and competition.
* Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. was cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which cited “full valuation.”
* Huntington Bancshares Inc. agreed to buy Veritex Holdings Inc., which operates more than 30 bank branches in Texas, for $1.9 billion in an all-stock transaction.
* Chip-design software maker Synopsys Inc. secured China’s approval to buy Ansys Inc., setting the stage to close the $35 billion deal later this week.
* NIQ Global Intelligence Plc is seeking to raise as much as $1.2 billion in a US initial public offering, adding to a rush of summer listings.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4:04 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1669
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3428
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 147.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $119,769.05
* Ether rose 0.1% to $2,996.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.73%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.60%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $66.96 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,344.06 an ounce
Have a lovely day.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Believe and act as if it were impossible to fail. –Charles Kettering, 1876-1958.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 11, 1302: Battle of the Golden Spurs: Flemish town militias defeat French cavalry near Kortrijk, a shock victory that strengthens Flemish identity and is still commemorated today.
July 11, 1979: The abandoned U.S. space station Skylab returned to Earth, burning up in the atmosphere and showering debris over the Indian Ocean and Australia.  Go to article.
On this day in 1985, Coca-Cola announced the return of Coke Classic after the company had tried displacing the old formula with New Coke. It was such a stunning development that ABC’s Peter Jennings interrupted General Hospital with the news flash.

John Constable, artist, b. 1776.
E.B. White, writer, b. 1899.
Suzanne Vega, singer/songwriter, b. 1959.

Earth just had a freakishly short day, but the fastest day of the year is yet to come
July 9 was unusually short thanks to changes in how fast the Earth is spinning. But two other days this summer are expected to be even shorter. Read More.

Scientists discover that mysterious giant structures beneath the North Sea seemingly defy what we know about geology
Giant mounds of sand discovered beneath the North Sea off Norway may scramble what we know about a key geological process.

1,600-year-old tomb of Maya city’s first ruler unearthed in Belize
Archaeologists have discovered the tomb of the Maya king who founded the city of Caracol in what is now Belize. Read More.

‘We’re bringing back avian dinosaurs’: De-extinction company claims it will resurrect the giant moa in next 10 years
The South Island giant moa could be the next species that biotech company Colossal “brings back” from extinction — but experts say the result will not and “cannot be” a moa. Read More.

Daytime Emmy nominations revealed
Several new categories were added, including outstanding culinary cultural series, outstanding emerging talent in a daytime drama series and outstanding regional content in a daytime genre.

Gone, but not forgotten
A piece of the illegally felled Sycamore Gap tree in the UK is going on display — and you can even hug it.

The concert that showed we cared 
Nearly 40 years later, the effects of “Live Aid” are still being felt. The CNN Original Series, “Live Aid: When Rock ’n’ Roll Took on the World,” premieres at 9 p.m. ET/PT on July 13.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Harrogate, UK
Competitors wait to enter the main arena on the final day of the 166th Great Yorkshire show. The four-day event celebrates agriculture, food, farming and the countryside
Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

A wagtail catches up with the day’s tennis action on the court at the Wimbledon Championships, London, UK
Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Where the buffalo roam … a bison stops traffic in Yellowstone national park, Wyoming, US
Photograph: Kaylee Greenlee/Reuters
Market Closes for July 11^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44371.51	-279.13
		-0.63%
S&P 500	6259.75	-20.71
		-0.33%
NASDAQ	20585.53	-45.13
		-0.22%
TSX	27023.25	-59.05
		-0.22%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39569.68	-76.68
		-0.19%
HANG SENG	24139.57	+111.20
		+0.46%
SENSEX	83190.31	-345.77
		-0.41%
FTSE 100*	8941.12	-34.54
		-0.38%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.500	3.408
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.809	3.718
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4093	4.3498
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9491	4.8694

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7304	0.7320
US $	1.3691	1.3661

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6009	0.6247
US $	1.1693	0.8552

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3312.60	3300.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.45	68.38

Market Commentary:
Iron rusts from disuse; stagnant water loses its purity and in cold weather becomes frozen; even so does inaction sap the vigor of the mind. – Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 27,023.25 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.6%.
Enghouse Systems Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 4.1%.
Today, 101 of 213 shares fell, while 106 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended May 23
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 10, 2025 and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.38t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.81% compared with 5.77% in the previous session and the average of 6.25% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | -51.0102| -1.9| 1/9
Financials | -49.8160| -0.6| 6/18
Industrials | -18.7748| -0.5| 7/21
Consumer Staples | -10.0769| -1.0| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2191| -0.3| 2/7
Health Care | -0.6788| -1.0| 1/2
Communication Services | -0.0543| 0.0| 1/4
Utilities | 0.5174| 0.1| 5/8
Real Estate | 0.9876| 0.2| 11/7
Materials | 33.7235| 0.9| 35/12
Energy | 39.3541| 0.9| 35/5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell off a record high on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impost 35% tariffs on some Canadian imports on Aug.1 offset a better than expected jobs report.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 59.05 points, finishing the week at 27,023.25.
Sectors were mixed with Information Technology and Financial leading the decliners, down 5.2% and 2.8%, respectively.
Energy topped the list, rising 3.6%.
Canadian employment increased by 83,000, or 0.4%, month-over-month, in June, and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 6.9%, according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), while the consensus estimate expected little job growth and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.1%.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said there are a few possibilities why employers are hiring so much despite all the trade uncertainty.
One idea is that companies are rushing to produce goods before tariffs take full effect.
But that doesn’t explain why most of the job growth is happening in the service sector, he said.
Another explanation is that Canada’s domestic economy is doing better than its trade-related sectors.
Many services are not tied to international trade, so are less affected by tariffs, Holt added.
It’s also possible that Canadians are simply spending more at home.
Restaurant activity is strong, and spending at bars and restaurants suggests people are choosing staycations instead of traveling to the United States for March break or summer holidays, keeping that money, and jobs, in Canada, he said.
National Bank economists Matthieu Arseneau and Kyle Dahms said despite the good news, some caution is needed.
The LFS, which tracks employment, may be overstating job gains as it uses a 12-month average to estimate the number of non-permanent residents.
To get a clearer picture, it is key to monitor another report called the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, which is based on employer records.
“While signs of stabilization are welcome, it remains that tariff-related uncertainty contributed to a deterioration in the labour market during the first half of the year,” the economists said, adding that “all in all, this morning’s report makes an interest rate cut at the end of July unlikely.”
Andrew Hencic, head of TD Economics, said this is a week of two opposite signals.
On one hand, the threat of new tariffs is growing, with a key deadline on Aug. 1.
On the other, Canada’s labor market has shown signs of strength, rebounding after earlier uncertainty.
That said, inflation remains the main focus, with the next Consumer Price Index report due next week, he added.
“We expect the June CPI report to show inflation having strengthened, with both goods and services price pressures having heated up relative to May. But at this juncture, the uptick is unlikely to unnerve policymakers, particularly with inflation expectations remaining well anchored,” Hencic said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Friday as traders look to strong summer demand, even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned supply is outstripping demand.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery was last seen up $1.88 to settle at US$68.45 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$1.66 to US$70.30.
Gold traded higher late afternoon on Friday, rising for a third day despite a stronger dollar as safe-haven buying continues amid U.S.
President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff polices.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$45.70 to US$3,371.40 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from all-time highs as Donald Trump intensified his trade offensive, sending the dollar to its best week since February.
Concerns about the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs weighed on Treasuries, while oil traders braced for US efforts to crimp Russian energy exports.
Following a rally that drove the S&P 500 to its fifth record in nine trading days, equity bulls took a breather.
While almost 400 shares in the benchmark retreated, gains in most mega caps pushed the market away from session lows.
Kraft Heinz Co. climbed on news reports that the company is preparing to break itself up.
The six biggest US banks are set to report earnings next week, with analysts predicting trading-revenue increases.
Trump threatened a 35% tariff on some Canadian goods and raised the prospect of increasing levies on most other countries, ramping up his trade rhetoric.
The US president told NBC News he’s also eyeing blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on most trading partners.
The current global baseline minimum tariff rate for nearly all US trading partners is 10%.
“The stock market is looking lower due to President Trump’s more hawkish stance on tariffs,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“With the market overbought and very expensive, the market is getting ripe for some sort of a pullback.”
Longer-dated Treasuries led declines Friday, with the bond market seeing a second week of losses.
The greenback rose against most major currencies. Bitcoin topped $118,000 for the first time.
While negative trade headlines and tariff threats may multiply in the coming weeks, US trade policy will likely move toward greater stability in the second half of the year, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Our base case is that the effective US tariff rate will land near 15% by year-end, slowing the US economy over the next six months but not causing a recession,” she said.
“Many of the most heavily weighted US equities in the S&P 500 are fairly insulated from tariff risk, in our view, and we think the index can climb to 6,500 by June next year despite periodic volatility.”
The gauge closed at 6,259.75 on Friday.
Investors are counting on US stocks to rally on the back of a robust earnings season, before the market loses steam toward year-end, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
Client feedback suggests “no one” is worried about the economy or equity valuations, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
Meantime, Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Beata Manthey said gins in global equities will slow over the coming 12 months, adding that earnings expectations appear relatively optimistic given the “highly uncertain” outlook.
Wall Street expects very little from S&P 500 companies this earnings season, with analysts projecting S&P 500 profits to rise 2.8% year over year — the slowest growth rate since 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
“We believe second quarter earnings will be good, but not as good as first quarter,” said Michael Landsberg at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management.
“Much of the second quarter was marked with tariff and trade issues and that may have caused some dislocations in earnings for certain industries as their customers may have been in a holding pattern.”
That said, Landsberg noted that he believes expectations “are a bit low” for S&P 500 earnings.
“While we do acknowledge the volatility and the unknown picture the tariffs have brought, we think earnings will be better overall than current projections. This low bar, if cleared, should be a positive for market performance,” he added.
While bulls and bears may debate the rally’s sustainability, the recent steadying of corporate profit estimates suggests the earnings season could serve as the ultimate factor in determining whether stocks can extend gains or transition into a more protracted, choppy consolidation phase,” according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“What is clear, however, is that bears are on their heels and are hesitant following a barrage of whipsaws this year,” he noted.
Historically, when the S&P 500 has surged more than 20% in two months or less — as it did in the second quarter — it has consistently been higher a year later in all 10 prior instances, with an average gain greater than 15%, Hackett said.
Meantime, volatility has collapsed, with the VIX falling below 16 earlier this week – while finishing slightly above that mark on Friday.
“Wall Street strategists continue to capitulate on their bearish shift from April, with several upgrades this week to year-end price targets,” he added.
“Sentiment and positioning are no longer pessimistic, though there are few signs of complacency, and retail and institutional buying show no signs of fading.”
Sellers are growing scarce in the US stock market, a potentially ominous sign of overconfidence.
When stocks do decline, there appears to be little conviction behind the moves: Trading volume for stocks that are falling has accounted for just 42% of total turnover on US exchanges over the past month, on average.
That’s the least since 2020, according to data compiled by Thrasher Analytics.
The phenomenon is a signal that investors may have grown overly exuberant during the market’s blistering rebound, said Andrew Thrasher, the firm’s co-founder.
It has preceded past pullbacks in stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping at least 5% in the last three instances, which occurred in 2020, 2019 and 2016, Thrasher’s data showed.
Volatility in the Treasuries market also dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a measure of expected fluctuations in yields, hitting its lowest level since January 2022.
Trader attention will shift next week to inflation, with the June consumer price index due Tuesday.
At Morgan Stanley, economists led by Michael Gapen said there should be more evidence of tariff pass-through, but the overall push remains mild with some heavily tariffed goods still showing weakness.
They forecast a more meaningful tariff-related acceleration in July and August.
“It’s the numbers from August and beyond – when the full schedule of reciprocal tariffs apply – that will be the ultimate litmus test for the inflation complex,”  said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Strategists at RBC Capital Markets pushed back their forecast for the Federal Reserve to resume easing to December from September, saying policymakers need more time to assess inflation and labor market conditions.
“‘Wait-and-see’ mode is only going to be broken by some evidence that tariff-related inflation has topped out and remains relatively contained (i.e. not spilling over into non-tariffed goods or services or impacting longer-run inflation expectations), and some further softening in labor markets,”
Blake Gwinn and Izaac Brook wrote in a note Friday.
“Neither one of these is likely to be enough on its own.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Investigators of the fatal Air India crash last month have found no evidence so far that would require them to take actions over the Boeing Co. 787 aircraft or the GE engines powering it.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. has told financial-technology companies that it will start charging fees amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars for access to their customers’ bank account information – a move that threatens to upend the industry’s business models.
* Legendary Entertainment LLC, the independent film and TV studio behind the Dune trilogy and A Minecraft Movie, is considering a takeover of Lionsgate Studios Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.
* AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. jumped after Wedbush upgraded the movie-theater operator to outperform, saying the company “is poised to benefit from a more consistent release slate over the next several quarters.”
* Capricor Therapeutics Inc. tumbled after US regulators rejected the company’s treatment for a deadly muscle disorder.
* Levi Strauss & Co. climbed after raising its revenue outlook, with the maker of 501 jeans expecting sales growth to outweigh the effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
* Texas Instruments Inc. was upgraded to buy at TD Cowen, which said the chipmaker is uniquely positioned as industry cycle improves.
* Tesla Inc. will open its first showroom in India on Tuesday and begin deliveries as early as next month, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Elon Musk-led electric vehicle maker looks to tap potential demand in the third-largest automobile market to counter slowing sales elsewhere.
* A group of Microsoft Corp. investors is pressuring the company to assess how effectively it identifies customers who misuse its artificial intelligence tools, a push that follows reports detailing
* Delta Air Lines Inc. has been cannibalizing new Airbus SE jets in Europe by stripping off their engines and using them to get grounded planes in the US back into service, as it seeks to overcome a shortage and avoid aircraft import tariffs.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. is tapping oil inventories stashed in US emergency reserves after the startup of a new Chevron Corp. well in the Gulf of Mexico contributed to quality issues in crude supplies coming from the region.
* BASF SE warned that earnings will come in lower than previously expected this year as US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties crimp demand.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1688
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3498
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 147.37 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $118,138.45
* Ether rose 6.6% to $3,007.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.42%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.1% to $68.65 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,356.55 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Live out your imagination, not your history. –Stephen Covey, 1932-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Full moon tonight.
July 10, 1940: The Battle of Britain begins as Germany launches air attacks on the UK, marking a pivotal air campaign of World War II.
July 10, 1985:  Coca-Cola Co., bowing to pressure from irate customers after the introduction of New Coke, said it would resume selling its old formula. Go to article
July 10, 1955: Rainbow Warrior sunk, Greenpeace.

John Calvin, founder Presbyterianism, b. 1509, Noyon, France.
Marcel Proust, writer, b. 1871,Neuilly, France.
Arthur Ashe, tennis player, b. 1943, Virginia, USA.

Ready to be moonstruck?
Keep your eyes on the horizon tonight to see the peak of July’s full buck moon.

‘I really don’t want them to go’ 
Japan’s panda town was booming. But the four bears at its local zoo really belong to China, and China wants them back.

8-year-old with rare, fatal disease shows dramatic improvement on experimental treatment
A child with a rare genetic disease that affects mitochondria is the first person to receive a new experimental treatment for the potentially life-threatening condition. Read More.

Extraordinary ‘sacrificial ass’ found with severed head from Bronze Age Israel
The nearly 5,000-year-old remains of a “sacrificial ass” and three other donkeys from a faraway land have been discovered under a Bronze Age house in Israel. Read More.

Dams around the world hold so much water they’ve shifted Earth’s poles, new research shows
Dam construction since 1835 has caused Earth’s poles to “wander” away from the planet’s rotational axis because of the massive weight of water reservoirs. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Igualada, Spain
Balloonists take part in the opening event of the 29th European balloon festival
Photograph: Enric Fontcuberta/EPA

York, England
An aerial view of this year’s York maze, which celebrates 30 years of Toy Story. The maze is the largest in the UK, made up of more than 1m maize plants in a 15-acre field
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Tottori, Japan
Visitors view a sand sculpture at the Tottori Sand Museum’s annual exhibition
Photograph: Buddhika Weerasinghe/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 10^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44650.64	+192.34
		+0.43%
S&P 500	6280.46	+17.20
		+0.27%
NASDAQ	20630.66	+19.32
		+0.09%
TSX	27082.30	+109.98
		+0.41%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39646.36	-174.92
		-0.44%
HANG SENG	24028.37	+136.05
		+0.57%
SENSEX	83190.31	-345.77
		-0.41%
FTSE 100*	8975.66	+108.64
		+1.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.408	3.373
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.718	3.680
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3498	4.3320
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8694	4.8684

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7320	0.7307
US $	1.3661	1.3685

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5984	0.6256
US $	1.1670	0.8547

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3300.15	3314.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.38	68.38

Market Commentary:
We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power. –Alan Greenspan, Fed Chairman 1987-2006, on funding Social Security to Senate Banking Committee 2/15/05), b. 1926.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 109.98 to 27,082.30 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.0%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 16.3%.
Today, 128 of 213 shares rose, while 81 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 25% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.36t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.77% compared with 5.81% in the previous session and the average of 6.30% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 51.9109| 0.6| 20/5
Industrials | 27.9437| 0.8| 20/9
Energy | 13.2951| 0.3| 20/18
Information Technology | 5.6114| 0.2| 4/6
Materials | 5.5887| 0.2| 30/18
Utilities | 3.7530| 0.4| 10/5
Communication Services | 3.0574| 0.5| 3/2
Real Estate | 1.7617| 0.4| 10/7
Health Care | -0.0462| -0.1| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0868| 0.0| 6/3
Consumer Staples | -2.8185| -0.3| 4/6
Brookfield Corp | 17.4400| 2.0| -12.5| 5.7
Enbridge | 12.9500| 1.4| 88.4| -0.3
RBC | 10.2800| 0.6| 72.5| 5.2
Cameco | -3.5290| -1.2| 5.4| 31.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.6850| -0.7| -17.2| -2.1
Nutrien | -6.5180| -2.3| 42.4| 29.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a fresh record high on Thursday, pushing back above the 27,000 marks on a strong performance for the metals sector amid uncertainty over the global outlook due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 109.98 points to 27,082.30, topping the prior record of 27,036.16 set on July 4.
Most sectors moved higher, with Base Metals and Industrials leading the gainers, rising 7% and 4.3%, respectively, while Energy fell 1.4%.
The rise comes despite uncertainty over U.S. trade policies and the potential inflationary effect of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. President, as well as their impact on growth in Canada and internationally.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said the bank expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep its key interest rate at 4.5% for the rest of the year.
This forecast has held up well, Holt said, as markets have lowered expectations for rate cuts in 2025, from 100 basis points earlier this year to about 50 now.
Scotiabank still believes it will be hard for the Fed to justify any rate cuts soon but remains flexible given the uncertainty in the current policy environment.
Holt added he also expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to also keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
Unlike the Fed, the BoC’s current policy rate of 2.75% already sits within its estimated “neutral” range of 2.25% to 3.25%.
This gives the BoC more flexibility in its decisions, although trade remains an important factor for the Canadian economy.
Despite some signs of economic slowdown over the past one-and-a-half years, inflation, especially the BoC’s preferred core measures, remains too high for rate cuts to be seriously considered, Holt noted, suggesting that other forces are keeping inflation elevated, even as the economy loses a bit of momentum, he said.
There are risks to growth that could help reduce inflation over time.
However, how much impact these risks have, especially from tariffs, depends on whether trade restrictions are temporary or permanent.
“It remains premature to judge this, given the Trump administration’s erratic ways, and therefore, easing pre-emptively ahead of greater slack cannot be done with confidence.
If temporary, then growth faces little to no sustained deviation from a baseline shock scenario.
If persistent, then greater disinflationary slack could emerge,” Holt said.
He added that fiscal policy might also play a role.
A “strongly expansionary” federal budget is expected this fall, which could boost the economy in ways like a rate cut.
The BoC is watching this closely.
With interest rates already at a neutral level, and the risk of doing too much stimulus if trade tensions fade, the BoC is likely being cautious to avoid repeating the mistake of overreacting, as happened in the aftermath of the pandemic.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for the first time in four sessions on Thursday on rising U.S. inventories and expectations capricious U.S. tariff policies are likely to slow global growth.
WTI oil for August delivery closed US$1.81 to settle at US$66.57 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$1.56 to US$68.63.
Gold traded higher for a second day late afternoon on Thursday on haven demand and concerns over U.S. tariff policies even as the dollar and treasury yields rose.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$12.50 to US$3,333.50 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Relative calm enveloped Wall Street, with stocks rising as traders parsed a batch of corporate outlooks.
Treasuries bounced from session lows as a $22 billion sale of 30-year bonds showed appetite for longer-term debt despite concerns about the US deficit and the impacts of tariffs.
Just a few days ahead of the unofficial start of the earnings season that will bring results from big banks, an upbeat forecast from Delta Air Lines Inc. lifted the industry.
The S&P 500 hit a record, approaching 6,300.
Tesla Inc. jumped on plans to expand its Robotaxi service to California and Arizona.
Nvidia Corp.’s value topped $4 trillion.
The chipmaker’s chief Jensen Huang was said to meet with President Donald Trump before a planned trip to China.
Read: July’s 30-Year Treasury Auction Garners Record Direct Demand Treasury 10-year yields rose one basis point to 4.34%, while those on 30-year bonds were little changed at 4.86%.
Thursday’s debt auction was awarded at 4.889% vs a 4.890% when- issued yield at the 1 p.m.
New York time bidding deadline.
A drop in jobless claims in a period that included the Independence Day holiday was taken in stride.
The dollar wavered.
Markets are caught up in a mix of sometimes contradictory risks surrounding the tariff rollout, fiscal policy, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve.
Trump’s flurry of new warnings has\-done little to rattle trading as they did when the “reciprocal tariffs” were announced in April, with investors focusing on the overall extension of the deadline to Aug. 1.
Speaking in Dublin, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief Jamie Dimon warned markets are complacent on tariffs.
He also said it is important that an agreement is reached between the European Union and the US, adding that a tariff framework “needs to get done.”
“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report.
“The practical impact of this consistently delayed tariff policy is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut, which could leave rates higher for longer and increase the chances of an economic slowdown.”
Read: Fed’s Waller Says Balance Sheet Can Drop to About $5.8 Trillion Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said he sees upside risks to inflation, but it’s too early to know whether tariffs will have a persistent impact on prices.
His San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly said she still views two rate cuts as likely this year and sees a greater chance that the price effects from tariffs may be more muted than anticipated.
Policymakers have held borrowing costs steady this year, but a divide has emerged over how many rate cuts officials expect in 2025.
Fed officials will meet next July 29-30.
Based on pricing in futures contracts, traders currently expect the central bank to slash rates twice this year.
“While there will likely be no shortage of announcements coming out of the White House in the coming weeks, it’s unlikely the new August 1 deadline will be the end of the tariff story,” -said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
And with a new earnings season around the corner, investors may want to focus on stocks with the potential for upside surprises in profits and cash flow, while also diversifying into international stocks, commodities, energy infrastructure, and hedge funds, he noted.
“More tariff clarity should emerge as trade talks continue,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Declines in policy uncertainty have historically been positive for stocks, and we think US trade policy will move toward greater stability in the second half of the year.”
Read: ‘The Worst Is Past’ Must Be the Message This Earnings Season “The remarkable resilience of the US consumer – and in turn US companies – was the hero of the first half,” said Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas.
“Going into Q2 earnings season, stocks could get an added boost from low expectations.”
Wall Street expects very little from S&P 500 companies this earnings season, forecasting just 2% growth and a margin dip for the second quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong.
“While it’s a very low bar — indeed, the weakest growth in two years — the market may still need confirmation that profit momentum will only get better in the second half,” they said.
“Our guidance model suggests earnings should easily clear consensus, reinforcing the case for a recovery narrative to take hold.”
Risk assets are set to remain supported, with lower sensitivity to tariffs and the second-quarter reporting season as key catalysts, HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner said.
They recommend increasing the overweight to equities further, now with a preference for the US.
“Aside from still supportive investor positioning, we think the bearish narrative on the Q2 reporting season is misplaced,” they said.
“The weaker USD, improved company guidance, and low expectations are more than sufficient for positive surprises.
Following this week’s renewed tariff announcements, any cuts to these rates would likely be taken as positive too.”
A noticeable shift has been reshaping US equities in the month of July: Some of the biggest laggards from the first half are now outperforming, while the year’s early winners are falling out of favor.
Investors are taking profits and pivoting into underperforming sectors, fueling a reversal that’s turned energy — one of the biggest losers in the S&P 500 Index in the first six months of the year — into July’s top gainer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, communication services have swung from second-best gainer in the first half to the worst performer this month.
Investors should stay away from a one-sided allocation to either defensive or cyclical stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including Ryan Hammond.
“While the overall technical trend remains positive for US equities, our proprietary cycle analysis currently implies a window of potential volatility to open beginning in late-July and lasting into October,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Our work does not call for a structural downturn/secular bear market to start this year, but it does suggest that we could see more corrective periods.”
Wantrobski also noted that bullish sentiment and positioning are elevated, charts are overbought, seasonality looms ahead in the coming weeks, and headline risk remains high in this environment.
“It’s been a steady climb, with several tailwinds lifting sentiment along the way,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“But with uncertainty over the US trade policy lingering, the US markets are in need of a fresh catalyst for the next leg up, you’d feel.”
Consequently, Razaqzada says investors shouldn’t be surprised if we see a bit of consolidation or a retracement from fresh highs.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. will hold its annual shareholder meeting Nov. 6, the company said in a new filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
** Elon Musk said his AI startup’s chatbot will be coming to Tesla vehicles.
* Apple Inc. is planning an ambitious pipeline of new products for release during the first half of 2026, including a new low- end iPhone, multiple iPads and upgraded Macs.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. reinstated a profit outlook for the year and said travelers are coming back, prompting its stock to surge amid a fresh sense of confidence in the beaten-down US consumer.
* Conagra Brands Inc. pointed to rising costs from US tariffs as the packaged food company forecast profit for this fiscal year below Wall Street’s expectations.
* Levi Strauss & Co. raised its revenue outlook, with the maker of 501 jeans expecting sales growth to outweigh the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
* Ralph Lauren Corp. Chief Executive Officer Patrice Louvet said demand for its signature clothing such as cable-knit sweaters remains strong, even as the fashion industry is buffeted by tariffs and an economic slowdown.
* Helen of Troy Ltd. tumbled after the consumer-products company reported net sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate and issued a weaker-than-expected forecast for the second quarter.
* Ferrero International SA agreed to acquire WK Kellogg Co. for an enterprise value of $3.1 billion, pushing the Italian family- owned candy business further into the lucrative US market.
* US regulators approved Moderna Inc.’s Covid vaccine for children, but for a narrower group than before.
* Autodesk Inc. is weighing an acquisition of rival engineering- software provider PTC Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s revenue rose a better-than-anticipated 39% in the June quarter, buoying expectations for a sustained post-ChatGPT boom in AI spending.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1695
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3576
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.25 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $113,381.15
* Ether rose 2.9% to $2,817.59
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.86%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $66.88 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,324.63 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood. -Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 9, 1816: Argentina declares independence from Spain, establishing itself as a sovereign nation.
July 9, 1893: First successful open-heart surgery.
July 9, 2004: A Senate Intelligence Committee report concluded the CIA had provided unfounded assessments of the threat posed by Iraq that the Bush administration relied on  to justify going to war.  Go to article.

Nikola Tesla, inventor, b. 1856.
Otto Respighi, composer, b. 1879.
Tom Hanks, actor, b. 1956.
Courtney Love, singer, b. 1964.

Why were the Texas flash floods so catastrophic?
More than 100 people have died in devastating flash floods in Kerr County, Texas. But what caused this extreme weather, and will events like this get more common? Read More.

Buck Moon 2025: How to spot the year’s farthest full moon from the sun
July’s full “Buck Moon” will be at its fullest on Thursday, July 10, and will be best seen at moonrise. It is the farthest full moon from the sun all year and one of the lowest in the sky. Read More.

Whooo’s there? James Webb telescope spots ‘Cosmic Owl,’ super-rare structure formed from colliding ring galaxies
Located billions of light-years away, the “Cosmic Owl” is a pair of colliding ring galaxies spotted by the JWST. It’s also an “exceptional natural laboratory” for studying how galaxies evolve. Read More.

The $23 million idea
A group of leading tech companies plans to train 400,000 teachers on how to use artificial intelligence.

‘I’m quite happy’
After nearly 60 years in Hollywood, two-time Oscar-winning actor Michael Douglas says he’s pretty much done with performing.

You can’t please everyone
Like all actors, Jesse Tyler Ferguson is used to receiving criticism for his work. But the “Modern Family” star recently revealed who his loudest critics were.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Buenos Aires, Argentina
City skyscrapers rising above the fog
Photograph: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images

A newly hatched spotted sandpiper chick gets its feet wet while foraging along the bank of the Umpqua River near Elkton, Oregon, US. In this species, it’s typically the male that takes on most of the parenting duties, incubating the eggs and caring for the young. The chicks are able to walk and feed themselves within hours of hatching, though they remain under the watchful eye of their father for several weeks
Photograph: Robin Loznak/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock

Flamingos preparing to take flight are reflected on Lake Tuz, which hosts thousands of flamingos every year, in Ankara, Turkey. This year, the lake has seen a decline in flamingo numbers due to drought, prompting the birds to shift their migration route to other wetlands across Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 9^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44458.30	+217.54
		+0.49%
S&P 500	6263.26	+37.74
		+0.61%
NASDAQ	20611.34	+192.88
		+0.94%
TSX	26972.32	+68.75
		+0.26%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39821.28	+132.47
		+0.33%
HANG SENG	23892.32	-255.75
		-1.06%
SENSEX	83536.08	-176.43
		-0.21%
FTSE 100*	8867.02	+12.84
		+0.14%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.373	3.430
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.680	3.728
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3320	4.3992
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8684	4.9244

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7307	0.7318
US $	1.3685	1.3664

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6045	0.6232
US $	1.1726	0.8528

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3314.75	3315.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.38	68.33

Market Commentary:
It is totally unproductive to think the world has been unfair to you.  Every tough stretch is an opportunity. -Charlie Munger, 1924-2023, Vice -Chairman Berkshire Hathaway, 2007 Wesco Annual Meeting.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% at 26,972.32 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.6%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.1%.
Today, 123 of 213 shares rose, while 86 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on July 7, 2025, and 24.5% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-monthbasis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.35t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.81% compared with 5.79% in the previous session and the average of 6.35% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 29.3490| 0.8| 34/12
Information Technology | 20.3887| 0.8| 4/6
Financials | 18.5199| 0.2| 14/11
Industrials | 13.7237| 0.4| 21/8
Consumer Discretionary | 3.9006| 0.4| 5/4
Consumer Staples | 2.6414| 0.3| 6/4
Real Estate | 2.3042| 0.5| 13/5
Utilities | 1.6120| 0.2| 11/4
Health Care | -0.0782| -0.1| 2/1
Communication Services | -0.6521| -0.1| 2/3
Energy | -22.9417| -0.5| 11/28
Shopify | 21.2800| 1.6| -3.7| 2.3
CIBC | 9.7900| 1.5| 0.8| 9.5
Wheaton Precious Metals | 9.3570| 2.5| 6.3| 50.3
Brookfield Corp | -3.4080| -0.4| 11.8| 3.6
TC Energy | -6.4670| -1.4| -16.4| -4.8
Enbridge | -9.1420| -1.0| -41.1| -1.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher for the first time in three sessions on Wednesday as investors bid up financial issues, even as U.S. President’s capricious tariff policies are raising concerns for that country’s growth and its outlook for inflation.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 68.75 points to 26,972.32.
Base Metal led the big decliners, down 2.5%, while Industrials and Financial topped the list, rising 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank said U.S. President Trump is ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates now and is applying pressure on trading partners because he appears to be panicking.
Earlier in the day, Trump sent letters to at least seven countries, including Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines, assigning new US tariffs.
This follows his Monday letters to countries like Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Holt said Trump is worried that upcoming data will show his new tariffs pushing prices higher, which would justify the Fed’s caution and make future rate cuts harder to defend.
“Trump is also panicking because major trading partners are hardly beating a path to the US administration’s door in a quest to sign trade deals; they understand the US political cycle better than the US administration that overplayed its protectionist hand,” he added.
A worst-case scenario for Trump could include issues like tariffs fueling inflation in the coming months, the Fed holding rates steady for longer, and lifting the debt ceiling leading to a surge in government bond issuance, pushing yields higher, similar to what happened in 2023, Holt said.
On top of that, stricter immigration rules could slow economic growth while adding modest inflation pressure.
Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ may not deliver long-term economic gains either, Holt said, adding that “America’s trading partners probably know all of this.
Trump’s willingness to de-escalate trade tensions could improve as the costs of his policies become more evident and the midterms approach.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil closed with a small gain on Wednesday after Houthi militants attacked and sunk a cargo ship in the Red Sea, though an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories last week offered a counter to the safe-haven demand.
WTI oil for August delivery closed up US$0.05 to settle at US$68.38 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$0.06 to US$70.21.
Gold edged higher midafternoon on Wednesday even as the dollar rose with the metal remaining rangebound after falling off a record high set in June.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$3.50 to US$3,320.40 per ounce, nearly 7% below the June 13 record high of US$3,452.80.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in several big techs spurred a rebound in stocks, with Nvidia Corp. briefly hitting $4 trillion.
Treasuries climbed after a solid $39 billion sale.
Brazil’s real tumbled as President Donald Trump said the US will impose a 50% tariff on imports from the South American giant.
Equity traders brushed off trade angst to send the S&P 500 just a few points away from its record high.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is now signaling “extreme greed,” an indication of the market’s bullish momentum.
A gauge of mega caps added 1.1%, with Nvidia extending this year’s surge to more than 20%.
In another sign of risk appetite, Bitcoin topped $112,000 for the first time.
Trump unveiled a new round of tariff demand letters on Wednesday, with Brazil’s rate being one of the highest so far announced for the levies which are set to hit in August.
The US president cited the treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro in his letter to Brazil, calling on authorities to drop charges against him over an alleged coup attempt.
“We believe the setup for equity markets looks bullish, even in light of renewed trade-war jitters,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“While equities may come under some near-term pressure, investors are increasingly becoming numb to the tariff headlines and instead focusing on the trendlines.”
The Treasury market snapped a five-day selloff, with 10- year yields down six basis points to 4.34%.
A sale of the bonds drew a yield of 4.362%, slightly lower than indicated by pre- auction trading just before the bidding deadline, indicating demand exceeded expectations.
A $22 billion offering of 30-year debt is set for Thursday.
The emerging divide among Federal Reserve officials over the outlook for interest rates is being driven largely by differing expectations for how tariffs might affect inflation, a record of policymakers’ most recent meeting showed.
“While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17-18 meeting said.
To Jeff Roach at LPL Financial, the FOMC is comfortable remaining in wait-and-see mode.
Despite headwinds, the economy continues to trudge along, giving policymakers time to assess the projected impact from tariffs, he said.
While concern about the inflationary impacts of tariffs is one reason why the Fed has continued to postpone lowering rates, Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management doesn’t believe this changes the dynamics in the bull market .
“Most investors believe that the economy is strong, corporate profits will be resilient and are eager to buy stocks, however, we believe more caution is warranted because we haven’t yet seen the impact of tariffs on corporate profits and consumer spending, because there have been so many delays in implementing them,” he said.
With the S&P 500 back at cycle-high valuations, the market seems to be signaling a robust appetite for risk, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
This heightened sentiment likely reflects positive interpretation of recent data as supportive, he said.
The S&P 500 has repaired some of its technical damage, bolstered by impressive market leadership from industrials, financials, and the technology sectors, Hackett noted.
“Nvidia’s march today as the first company to surpass a $4 trillion market cap is only the latest example of this,” he said.
Nvidia’s surge to the new milestone marked a stunning rebound following a rough start to the year, when spending fears sparked by China’s DeepSeek, along with Trump’s trade war, weighed on risk sentiment.
The stock is up more than 1,000% since the beginning of 2023.
Nvidia now accounts for 7.5% of the S&P 500, near its highest influence on record.
“Historically, mega caps have tended to continue their rallies after reaching various $1 trillion market cap thresholds,” according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
For all of these instances, the average gain in the next six months is a 9.09% rally with positive performance two-thirds of the time, they said.
Of these stocks, Amazon.com Inc. holds the title of having averaged the largest rally after reaching one of these thresholds, with Nvidia as the runner up.
Fast-money investors are edging their way back into US stocks after sitting out a furious rally, bolstering the case for equities to extend their advance further into uncharted territory.
A BNP Paribas measure of equity positioning among investors including commodity-trading advisors, volatility-target funds and hedge funds has been steadily rising and now sits at just above neutral.
That follows a monthslong rally that saw the S&P 500 Index rebound to new highs from the precipice of a bear market.
The last time institutions were this light on stocks in the midst of a sharp recovery was in 2023, according to the bank.
Just this week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists raised their outlook for US stocks, citing among other factors the continued strength in the largest US companies as reasons why stocks are likely to keep heading higher.
“If the script goes as planned and economic activity remains firm; corporate profitability remains solid (especially across tech), and the inevitable unexpected speed bumps in the road don’t throw the market off track too much, stocks have an opportunity to grind higher through year-end,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
Yet Saglimbene remarks there’s now an elevated risk of disappointment, “especially after seeing how quickly the overall investment narrative can change based on the constant barrage of White House announcements.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. was upgraded at Oppenheimer on Wednesday, adding to a growing consensus on Wall Street that the software giant is in a strong position within artificial intelligence.
* Apple Inc. thinks it is “too big to tariff, in some sense, and it’s used that line,” White House trade counselor Peter Navarro told Fox Business.
* France’s antitrust regulator said it notified Meta Platforms Inc. of a potential violation of competition rules relating to the online advertising sector.
* CoreWeave Inc., a cloud computing provider, said it would offer Nvidia’s RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell GPUs at scale.
* Linda Yaccarino, who was hired two years ago by Elon Musk as chief executive officer of X, is stepping down less than three months after the social-media platform was absorbed by Musk’s artificial intelligence startup.
* Merck & Co. agreed to buy respiratory drugmaker Verona Pharma Plc for around $10 billion as part of its ongoing search for ways to fill the Keytruda-sized hole that will emerge over the next few years.
* Meta Platforms Inc. bought a minority stake in the world’s largest eyewear manufacturer, EssilorLuxottica SA, deepening the US tech giant’s commitment to the fast-growing smart glasses industry, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Autodesk Inc. is weighing an acquisition of rival engineering- software provider PTC Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. promoted a new leader for the company’s Medicaid insurance segment, filling a role that was vacant after recent executive changes.
* Starbucks Corp. has received proposals from prospective investors in its China business, most of whom are eyeing a controlling stake in the operation, said people familiar with the matter.
* AES Corp., which provides renewable power to tech giants such as Microsoft Corp., is exploring options including a potential sale amid takeover interest, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* Samsung Electronics Co. introduced three new foldable smartphones to cement its grip on the category and broaden mainstream appeal before Apple Inc. debuts its first version next year.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
* Nvidia rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1718
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3594
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 146.35 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $111,832.69
* Ether rose 6.2% to $2,760.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.67%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,315.09 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Action speaks louder than words but not nearly as often. -Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 8^th, 1497: Portuguese navigator Vasco da Gama sets sail, becoming the first European to reach India by se and opening a direct spice route that reshapes global trade.
July 8, 1889: The Wall Street Journal was first published.  Go to article.

John D. Rockefeller, financier, b. 1839
Angelica Huston, actress, b. 1951.
Anna Quindlen, writer, b. 1953.

Earth is going to spin much faster over the next few months — so fast that several days are going to get shorter
Differences in the gravitational pull between Earth and the Moon will make July 9, July 22 and Aug. 5 unusually short. Read More.

Melting glaciers could trigger volcanic eruptions around the globe, study finds
Glacial melt could increase volcanic activity in North America, New Zealand and Russia, spewing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Read More.

‘Ash-winged dawn goddess’ is oldest pterosaur ever discovered in North America — and it was small enough to sit ‘on your shoulder’
A cache of Triassic fossils in Arizona has revealed Eotephradactylus mcintireae, or “ash-winged dawn goddess,” the oldest pterosaur ever discovered in North America. Read More.

Scientists burned, poked and sliced their way through new robotic skin that can ‘feel everything’
New, gelatin-based material could let robots feel everything from a light poke to a deep cut. Read More.

Avoid the crowds
Costco’s priciest membership plan, which costs $130 per year, just launched a new perk.

Promising or pointless?
Turns out there’s a trick to bringing a full bottle of water through an airport security checkpoint — and it’s TSA-approved.

So many stars
The 2026 Hollywood Walk of Fame honorees have been revealed.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Long summer days on Hampstead Heath in London
Photograph: Sarah M Lee/The Guardian

One of the four lynx that were illegally released into the Cairngorms National Park, Scotland, in January and rescued by the Royal Zoological Society of Scotland. The three lynx that survived the ordeal have settled in to their new homes at the nearby Highland Wildlife Park, where this picture was taken. They have been named Caledonia, Cardrona and Bluebell, following a competition involving school children and charity donors
Photograph: RZSS/PA

A gannet carrying nesting material takes flight at Bempton Cliffs in Bridlington, East Yorkshire, UK
Photograph: Adam Vaughan/EPA
Market Closes for July 8^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44240.76	-165.60
		-0.37%
S&P 500	6225.52	-4.46
		-0.07%
NASDAQ	20418.46	+5.94
		+0.03%
TSX	26903.57	-116.72
		-0.43%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39688.81	+101.13
		+0.26%
HANG SENG	24148.07	+260.24
		+1.09%
SENSEX	83712.51	+270.01
		+0.32%
FTSE 100*	8854.18	+47.65
		+0.54%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.430	3.401
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.728	3.697
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3992	4.3794
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9244	4.9152

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7318	0.7314
US $	1.3664	1.3672

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6041	0.6234
US $	1.1726	0.8528

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3315.35	3331.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.33	67.93

Market Commentary:
Inflation is the modern way hat governments default on their debt. –Mike Epstein, 1947-2009.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 116.71 to 26,903.57 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on June 25.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 106 of 213 shares fell, while 103 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%.
SSR Mining Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.7%.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 7, 2025, and 24.2% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.36t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.79% compared with 5.89% in the previous session and the average of 6.38% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -129.8302| -3.5| 10/37
Information Technology| -47.7740| -1.8| 4/6
Financials | -7.1591| -0.1| 7/17
Utilities | -1.9782| -0.2| 6/8
Real Estate | -0.6520| -0.1| 5/14
Health Care | -0.3847| -0.6| 2/1
Consumer Staples | 2.6138| 0.3| 7/2
Consumer Discretionary| 4.5371| 0.5| 6/3
Communication Services| 10.3438| 1.7| 4/1
Industrials | 20.1901| 0.6| 17/12
Energy | 33.3906| 0.8| 35/5
Shopify | -45.4600| -3.4| 14.5| 0.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -27.7900| -4.7| 15.0| 41.4
Wheaton Precious Metals | -24.9600| -6.2| 48.3| 46.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 11.1200| 1.6| -33.3| 6.2
Canadian National | 11.4400| 2.1| -16.0| -1.6
Suncor | 12.3500| 2.8| -31.7| 3.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower for a second day on Tuesday, falling back below the 27,000 mark as investors take profits following Friday’s record close.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 116.71 points to 26,903.57, again dropping off Friday’s record close of 27,036.16.
Energy and Industrials were the biggest gainers, rising 5.3% and 2.8%, respectively.
Decliners were led by Information Technology, which dropped 3.3%.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a podcast the investment bank agrees with President Trump that the United States may need lower interest rates to sustain full employment, especially as tailwinds like strong consumer spending and immigration fade.
He added that while cuts may be needed later, the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode due to low unemployment and lingering inflation risks, including the unknown impact of new tariffs.
Shenfeld also said that unlike the United States, Canada is not at full employment “and there’s a greater urgency then that if the economy needs interest rate relief, we should be providing it somewhat sooner”.
He added that labor market softness in Canada appears to be spreading beyond trade-sensitive sectors, according to more detailed payroll data, raising concerns about underlying weakness.
Taylor Schleich, Director, Economics and Strategy at National Bank Financial, and analyst Noah Black said in a Tuesday note the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 2.25 percentage points since starting its easing cycle in June 2024.
But despite this, longer-term borrowing costs, like 10-year bond yields, have barely moved.
This “paltry” pass-through means the impact of rate cuts on the broader economy has been limited.
They added that muted pass-through of rate cuts is not just a Canadian issue, bond yields have been rising globally, partly due to concerns over growing fiscal pressures and anxieties.
Canada has fared better than some countries, like the U.K.
“However, relative fiscal strength should not distract from the fact that deficits and debt loads are rising in Canada too.
That isn’t conducive to absolute yield relief, leaving governments, businesses and consumers facing higher borrowing costs than they otherwise might,” the note said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher for a third-straight session on Tuesday as the market weighs the impact of higher supply after OPEC+ over the weekend decided to boost production more than expected next month.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up US$0.40 to settle at US$68.33 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$0.77 to US$70.35.
Gold traded lower late afternoon on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats against the country’s trading partners while again delaying imposing the levies, while the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$30.10 to US$3.312.70 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks failed to gain traction near all-time highs, with Donald Trump saying the August deadline for the start of reciprocal tariffs won’t be extended, despite hopes he’s open to trade talks.
Copper surged as the US president called for a 50% tariff.
Treasuries fell.
Following a torrid run from April lows, the S&P 500 barely budged as traders remained on guard for headline risk.
Copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc. rallied.
A gauge of drugmakers whipsawed as Trump indicated he could offer pharmaceutical manufacturers at least a year before applying a 200% tariff on foreign-made products.
In mega caps, Tesla Inc. climbed while Amazon.com Inc. fell at the start of its Prime Day sales event.
As Treasuries slipped, 30-year yields approached 5%, following a rout in longer-dated Japanese bonds and German bunds.
A $58 billion US sale of three-year notes drew soft demand.
That was the first in a trio of auctions this week.
The dollar wavered.
Trump signaled a renewed determination to push ahead with his plans to heavily tax foreign imports.
He also told reporters that despite progress with the European Union on a trade deal, frustration over the bloc’s taxes and fines targeting US technology firms could result in him unilaterally declaring a new tariff rate within the next two days.
“Trade-war headlines are regaining momentum, but that doesn’t mean we’re in for a repeat of late March and early April,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“If there is confidence that negotiations will continue or deadlines will be extended, markets may continue to shake off the headlines.”
However, Kenwell noted that if investors feel the trade situation could become “more bite than bark,” we could very well see another pullback in stocks.
“Unless the situation really unravels, a 5% to 10% pullback will likely be viewed as a buying opportunity by retail investors,” he noted.
“While tariffs will likely remain high — compared with levels at the start of the year — as will the headline risk, we think the US effective tariff rate should end the year at around 15%,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“This would be a headwind to growth but not enough to trigger a recession.”
She continues to recommend phasing into global equities or diversified portfolios to navigate volatility ahead.
Investors should look to reload on hedges ahead of the Aug. 1 tariff deadline as US equity indexes are near record highs with geopolitical risk premium largely dissipated, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Bram Kaplan wrote.
While top-down drivers such as macro growth forecasts being slightly up point to solid S&P 500 earnings growth for the second quarter, Deutsche Bank AG strategists led by Binky Chadha expect the idiosyncratic effects of tariffs to reduce profits.
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists raised their outlook for US stocks for the second time in two months, saying they expect the Federal Reserve to act sooner to cut rates.
The team led by David Kostin lifted their 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,900 from 6,500 and increased the year-end target to 6,600 from 6,100.
They also cited lower Treasury yields and strength in the largest US companies as reasons to power stocks.
Bank of America Corp. strategists also boosted their outlook for US equities, citing Corporate America’s ability to maintain earnings guidance.
Strategists including Savita Subramanian and Jill Carey Hall raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,300 from 5,600 and established a 12-month target of 6,600.
“We believe the setup for equity markets looks bullish, even in light of renewed trade-war jitters,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“While equities may come under some near-term pressure, investors are increasingly becoming numb to the tariff headlines and instead focusing on the trendlines.”
Johnson says technically, measures of market breadth and trends remain constructive, and the weight of the technical evidence supports his bullish outlook as earnings season approaches.

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Day sales fell almost 14% in the first four hours of the event compared with the start of last year’s sale, according to Momentum Commerce, which manages 50 brands in a variety of product categories.
* Boeing Co. said it delivered 60 aircraft in June, its best showing in 18 months that reflects improvements in its factories and the resumption of US jet exports to China.
* HSBC is turning cautious on three of the biggest US bank stocks following a record rally that’s brought the group within shouting distance of an all-time high.
* President Donald Trump called for new rules that would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects that already had been pared back by his $3.4 trillion budget bill designed to end green energy incentives.
* SpaceX is discussing plans to raise money and sell insider shares in a deal that would value Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker around $400 billion, people familiar with the matter said.
* Ciena Corp. was cut to underweight from equal weight citing at Morgan Stanley, which cited a lack of margin upside in the near term.
* Hershey Co. appointed Kirk Tanner to be the chocolate maker’s next president and chief executive officer.
* Walt Disney Co. and Hearst Corp. are considering a sale of their A+E Global Media joint venture, which includes cable-TV channels such as History and Lifetime, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev said the firm is in talks with regulators over its offering of tokenized equities in Europe, after the launch drew rebuke from companies including OpenAI.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1723
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3588
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 146.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $108,786.78
* Ether rose 3% to $2,611.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.90%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $68.33 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1% to $3,302.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Everything requires discipline, hard work and dedication, and most importantly, self-belief. –Serena Williams, b. 1981.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Fiesta de San Fermin, Running of the Bulls, Pamplona, Spain.

July 7, 1936: American businessman Henry F. Phillips receives patents for a new “cross-recessed” screw.  Now known as the Phillips head, it revolutionizes manufacturing with  its matching screwdriver.
July 7, 1987: Lt. Col. Oliver North began his public testimony at the Iran-Contra hearing, telling Congress that he had “never carried out a single act, not one” without authorization. Go to article.

Gustav Mahler, composer, b. 1860.
Marc Chagall, artist, b.1887.
Robet A. Heinlein, writer, b. 1907.
Ringo Starr, musician, b. 1940.

Astronaut snaps giant red ‘jellyfish’ sprite over North America during upward-shooting lightning event
NASA astronaut Nichole Ayers captured an electrifying image of a giant lightning “sprite” shooting up over Mexico and southern U.S. states. The red “jellyfish” could help researchers learn more about this rare phenomenon. Read More.

Oldest wooden tools unearthed in East Asia show that ancient humans made planned trips to dig up edible plants
The 300,000 year-old tools show that hominins in East Asia made planned foraging trips to lakeshores and designed instruments for specific purposes. Read More.

Giant radio telescope in the Utah desert could reveal hidden corners of the cosmos — and brand-new physics
Scientists say that the construction of a vast new radio telescope array in the Utah desert — known as the Deep Synoptic Array 2000 — could uncover some of the biggest
outstanding mysteries in astronomy. Read More.

AI chatbots oversimplify scientific studies and gloss over critical details — the newest models are especially guilty
More advanced AI chatbots are more likely to oversimplify complex scientific findings based on the way they interpret the data they are trained on, a new study suggests. Read More.

Taking the plunge
Swimming in the Seine has been illegal since 1923 due to pollution and risks posed by river navigation. But following a $1.5 billion cleanup project, Parisians and tourists are finally able to cool off by taking a refreshing dip.

Dino-Might!
“Jurassic World Rebirth” trampled its competition at the box office, grossing $147 million domestically over the five days of the Fourth of July weekend.

‘The great wait is over’
Oasis launched its reunion tour with a concert in Cardiff, Wales, on Friday. The famously feuding Gallagher siblings have not performed together since the band’s acrimonious split in 2009.

Even pontiffs need a break 
See where Pope Leo XIV is going to spend his summer vacation.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Birds perch on the antlers of a deer in Bushy Park, London, UK
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Sambar deer in an enclosure before being released in Khlong Lan national park, Thailand. The species is classed as vulnerable, but, in an unfortunate turn of events, these particular deer are being used to support Thailand’s wild tiger population, which needs prey: there are only about 200 endangered tigers left in the area
Photograph: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP/Getty Images

Wild yılkı horses graze around the grass-covered crater of Mount Karadağ, southern Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 7^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44406.36	-422.17
		-0.94%
S&P 500	6229.98	-49.37
		-0.79%
NASDAQ	20412.52	-188.58
		-0.92%
TSX	27020.29	-15.87
		-0.06%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39587.68	-223.20
		-0.56%
HANG SENG	23887.83	-28.23
		-0.12%
SENSEX	83442.50	+9.61
		+0.01%
FTSE 100*	8806.53	-16.38
		-0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.401	3.354
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.697	3.647
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3794	N.A
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9152	N.A

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7351
US $	1.3672	1.3603

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6041	0.6234
US $	1.1731	0.8524

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3331.90	3332.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.93	N.A

Market Commentary:
Traders come and go.  Risk managers are here to stay. -Nassim Taleb, b. 1960.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 27,020.28 in Toronto, ending a 4-day gain.
The loss follows the previous session’s little change.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
ATS Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.1%.
Today, 114 of 213 shares fell, while 97 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalizationof C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.89% compared with 6.15% in the previous session and the average of 6.40% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -28.4673| -0.3| 14/11
Energy | -23.1853| -0.5| 9/31
Industrials | -6.8263| -0.2| 16/13
Real Estate | -5.8351| -1.2| 0/19
Consumer Discretionary | -2.6926| -0.3| 4/5
Utilities | -1.0991| -0.1| 6/8
Consumer Staples | -0.1994| 0.0| 6/4
Health Care | -0.1221| -0.2| 0/2
Information Technology | 1.0279| 0.0| 4/6
Communication Services | 8.3725| 1.4| 2/3
Materials | 43.1351| 1.2| 36/12
Brookfield Corp | -14.1300| -1.6| 52.1| 4.1
Canadian National | -13.2200| -2.4| -8.2| -3.6
Manulife Financial | -11.2500| -2.2| -0.8| -5.2
Shopify | 9.1100| 0.7| -20.4| 4.1
Cameco | 9.4920| 3.1| -20.7| 38.9
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 12.3500| 2.2| -12.8| 48.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell again on Monday, edging down again from Friday’s record high, as confusion over U.S. tariff policies continues.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 15.88 points at 27,020.28, compared with Friday’s record close of 27,036.16.
Most sectors were in the red, except Telecoms, which was up 0.7%.
Decliners were led by Base Metals and Energy, which dropped 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.
Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank Economics, said the United States is once again delaying its tariff threats.
Treasury official Bessent said yesterday that if no trade deals are made by Aug. 1, tariffs will return to the high levels seen on April 2, extending the original deadline set for this Wednesday.
Trump plans to speak more about tariffs today.
However, the new deadline likely isn’t a serious threat, given the administration’s history of similar delays and the major economic damage those high tariffs would cause, Holt added.
“The rest of the world understands the US political cycle better than the US administration and it’s Trump that is under pressure into midterms more than the other countries.
Any ‘deals’ with the US administration are likely to be token ones as major trading partners resist longer-term damage emanating from deeply misguided US economic policies,” he said in the note.
Holt said the US dollar is trading stronger against most major currencies.
Government bond yields are mostly unchanged, with European bonds underperforming slightly compared to U.S.
Treasuries. In the United States, long-term bonds are lagging after the administration passed its “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which analysts estimate will increase the primary deficit by $3.2 trillion over the next decade “in highly regressive fashion that will negatively impact much of Trump’s base”.
BofA Securities analysts said there is growing optimism that Prime Minister Mark Carney could help revitalize Canada’s flagging economy and secure a trade deal with the United States by the July 21 deadline, a move that could boost Canadian bank stocks.
Recent steps like fast-tracking infrastructure projects and removing some interprovincial trade barriers also support that outlook.
After cuts to GDP forecasts due to tariff concerns earlier this year, BofA is now raising its 2025 growth forecast from 1% to 1.4%, citing a more resilient Canadian economy than previously expected.
Risks are seen as balanced, though a prolonged trade war with the U.S. remains the biggest downside, while further Bank of Canada rate cuts or more government spending could boost growth beyond expectations.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on closed with a gain on Monday even after OPEC+ over the weekend surprised the market by deciding to further speed the return of voluntary production cuts with an even-larger tranche of supply additions in August as the group looks to regain market share from producers outside of the cartel.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed US$0.93 to settle at US$67.93 per barrel, rising off an overnight low US$65.40.
September Brent oil was last seen up US$1.32 to US$69.62.
Gold was steady mid-afternoon on Monday as the dollar rose despite confusion over the timing of threatened U.S. tariffs.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$3.50 to US$3.346.40 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from all-time highs and the dollar climbed after President Donald Trump began unveiling his tariff plans, with the US setting levies for nations such as Japan, South Korea and South Africa starting in August — triggering a selloff in their currencies.
The S&P 500 slid about 1%, with megacaps leading losses as Tesla Inc. tumbled nearly 7% after Elon Musk announced he’s formed a political party, raising concern about his company’s outlook.
Treasuries dropped, with longer-dated bonds underperforming.
Emerging markets got hit as Trump warned he’d add extra tariffs on countries aligning with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS.”
Trump unveiled the first in a wave of promised letters that threaten to impose higher tariff rates on key trading partners, including levies of 25% on goods from Japan and South Korea.
He also announced 25% rates on Malaysia and Kazakhstan, while South Africa would see a 30% tariff.
Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said there would be around a dozen countries that receive notifications about their tariffs Monday directly from the president.
Additional letters will be sent in the coming days, she said. “Investors should be alert to headline risk,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The scope for last- minute deals are high, but so too is the possibility of renewed trade tensions.”
“With the trade war returning to the limelight, Treasuries bear-steepened on Monday – a move that was consistent with the forward reflationary implications associated with higher tariffs,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
The strategists said that one positive to be taken away from the latest trade developments was that the higher tariffs won’t be in place during July.
That means “an indirect extension” of the original 90-day pause that would expire on Wednesday.
“The outcome could certainly have been more dire for the economic outlook had the additional window of relief not been included in the latest trade-war salvo,” they noted.
The European Union is not expecting to receive a letter setting tariff rates today, according to a person familiar with those discussions. The EU is seeking to conclude a preliminary deal this week that would allow it to lock in a 10% tariff rate beyond an Aug. 1 deadline as they negotiate a permanent agreement.
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC said he expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks.
So far, the US economy is holding up, hiring is healthy, and inflation has remained tame.
But the Federal Reserve is wary about tariffs despite pressure from Trump to lower rates and wants to see how they feed through to output in the next few months.
Investors on Wednesday will parse minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting.
The US central bank can’t assume its benchmark lending rate won’t return to zero at some point in the future, according to researchers from the Fed Banks of New York and San Francisco, who included New York Fed President John Williams.
The authors, in a blog post published Monday, found a 9% probability the federal funds rate would hit the so-called zero lower bound, or ZLB, over a seven-year horizon, with the current high level of interest-rate uncertainty contributing to that risk.
Elsewhere, oil rose as Saudi Arabia surprised customers in Asia by hiking prices for its main crude grade, a vote of confidence that the market can absorb extra OPEC barrels.

Corporate Highlights:
* CoreWeave Inc. is dropping $9 billion on the data-center operator Core Scientific Inc. in an effort to gain more direct control over the physical assets powering the artificial- intelligence boom.
* Apple Inc. appealed a €500 million ($580 million) fine from the European Union, calling the penalty “unprecedented” and the regulator’s required changes to its App Store as “unlawful.”
* Netflix Inc. was downgraded to neutral from buy at Seaport Global Securities, which cites valuation in the wake of strong gains at the streaming-video company.
* Applied Materials Inc. was downgraded at Rothschild & Co Redburn to neutral from buy on gowth risks.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. initiated coverage of MGM Resorts International with a sell recommendation due to the volatile Las Vegas market.
* Wells Fargo & Co. was downgraded to market perform from strong buy at Raymond James which says the stock’s “favorable fundamentals” are already reflected in its valuation.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1719
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3609
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 146.06 per dollar
* The South African rand fell 1.5% to 17.8357
* The Korean won fell 1.1% to 1,377.90
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $108,045
* Ether fell 0.1% to $2,543.27
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.59%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $67.99 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Practice is more important than theory, for what we must learn to do, we learn by doing. –Gaius Musonius Rufus, c.20-30 AD- c.100 AD.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday! Happy Fourth of July.🎉

The United States celebrates its 249th year of independence. In 1776, the Continental Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence. Go to article

July 4^th, 1862 Charles Dodgson (Lewis Carroll) creates Alice in Wonderland for Alice Liddell during a family boat trip on the River Isis (Thames) in Oxford
July 4^th, 1924 Italian immigrant chef Caesar Cardini, creates his famous salad for the very first time, at his restaurant in Tijuana, Mexico
July 4^th, 1941 Howard Florey and Norman Heatley meet for the first time and successfully recreate penicillin 11 days later

NASA confirms that mysterious object shooting through the solar system is an ‘interstellar visitor’ — and it has a new name
Experts have confirmed that the mysterious object hurtling towards us, previously dubbed A11pl3Z, is an “interstellar object.” The cosmic interloper, officially named 3I/ATLAS, is only the third of its kind ever seen — and will shoot past Earth later this year.

Neanderthal DNA may refute 65,000-year-old date for human occupation in Australia, but not all experts are convinced
A new DNA model suggests humans didn’t reach Australia until 50,000 years ago, but archaeological data disagrees.

Astrophotographer snaps ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ shot of solar flare photobombing the ISS
An astrophotographer has captured an extremely rare and “difficult” photo of a solar flare exploding from the sun at the exact moment the International Space Station passed directly in front of our home star.

Can adults make new brain cells? New study may finally settle one of neuroscience’s greatest debates
Scientists say they have very strong evidence that the adult human brain is capable of making new neurons, a point of ongoing controversy in neuroscience.

1,400-year-old temple ruins the size of a city block unearthed in Bolivia
Ruins of the Palaspata temple complex from the millennia-old Tiwanaku civilization are unraveling some mysteries about the relatively unstudied society.

Oldest wooden tools unearthed in East Asia show that ancient humans made planned trips to dig up edible plants
The 300,000 year-old tools show that hominins in East Asia made planned foraging trips to lakeshores and designed instruments for specific purposes.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Lille, France
Soudal Quick-Step riders during a training session on the eve of the start of the 112th edition of the Tour de France
Photograph: Marco Bertorello/AFP/Getty

Kataragama, Sri Lanka
Two Sri Lankan leopards play together in Yala national park, the country’s most visited and second-largest national park
Photograph: Krishan Kariyawasam/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

Yellow-eyed penguins compare notes after returning to their colony on Katiki point on New Zealand’s South Island
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 4^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	Market Closed	N.A
S&P 500	Market Closed	N.A
NASDAQ	Market Closed	N.A
TSX	27036.16	+1.90
		+0.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39810.88	+24.98
		+0.06%
HANG SENG	23916.06	-153.88
		-0.64%
SENSEX	83432.89	+193.42
		+0.23%
FTSE 100*	8822.91	-0.29
		—

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.354	3.386
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.647	3.670
U.S. 10 Year Bond	N.A	4.3457
U.S. 30 Year Bond	N.A	4.8613

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7351	0.7360
US $	1.3603	1.3586

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6020	0.6242
US $	1.1777	0.8491

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3332.15	3335.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	N.A	67.00

Market Commentary:
“Beware of little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship.” — Benjamin Franklin
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 27,036.16 in Toronto.
Today, real estate stocks led the market higher, as 7 of 11 sectors gained; 119 of 213 shares rose, while 87 fell.
H&R Real Estate Investment Trust contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 17.2%.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended May 16
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.15% compared with 6.13% in the previous session and the average of 6.50% over the past month

Index Points
Real Estate | 8.8979| 1.9| 16/2
Materials | 4.0681| 0.1| 26/22
Consumer Staples | 3.6436| 0.4| 9/1
Utilities | 1.3757| 0.1| 10/3
Financials | 1.3603| 0.0| 15/10
Communication Services | 1.1469| 0.2| 5/0
Health Care | 0.0715| 0.1| 2/1
Consumer Discretionary | -0.9493| -0.1| 4/5
Industrials | -1.5183| 0.0| 14/13
Energy | -3.9891| -0.1| 14/24
Information Technology | -12.1886| -0.5| 4/6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted its fourth-straight record close on Friday, sticking above the 27,000 mark for a second day but gains are slowing as it managed just a minor rise.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 1.9 points to 27,036.16, just topping Thursday’s prior record close of 27,034.26.
Telecoms and Utilities were up 0.37% and 0.20%, respectively, leading gains, while Information Technology and Battery Metals Index were at the bottom of the list.
Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ noted there was no shortage of key economic news and events packed into this holiday-shortened week.
He said the most notable end result was that equity markets “kept right on keeping on”, reflecting a broad rally.
“So broad, in fact, that the TSX has steamrolled above 27,000 for the first time, with almost an unbroken string of advances in the past three months; it has now risen in 11 of the past 13 weeks,” Porter added.
Globally, it’s a broadly similar tale for the MSCI All Countries index, which is now up almost 7% year to date, also reaching a record high, he noted.
According to Porter, the three major drivers for markets this week were economic news, a new budget bill in the United States and trade developments, with the latter impacting Canada most.
He noted Canada and Mexico were not included in the new U.S. reciprocal tariffs and are being handled separately.
Talks with Canada were paused last week over its Digital Services Tax, but ,after Canada backed down, negotiations resumed.
Both countries hope to reach a deal by July 21, though that date is self-imposed.
Porter said while Canada’s economy has held up a bit better than BMO initially expected to the trade war, in part because the average U.S. tariff on Canada is a “manageable” 6%, he added “there are some signs of strain” as the deep merchandise trade deficit of $5.9 billion was the second largest on record, topped only by April’s “whopping” $7.6 billion shortfall, and real exports were down 5% from last year’s average level.
Porter said Canada’s trade figures have been “wildly skewed” by tariff front-running that was followed by a “deep sag”, but also by a surge in gold exports.
Looking through the dense fog, he added, it’s clear that net exports will sap second-quarter GDP, probably to a greater extent than the calm monthly output figures imply.
Along with a drop in oil production amid the spring wildfires, BMO downgraded its call on the quarter to -0.8% a.r., although it also expects less softness in the third quarter as a partial offset.
“If Ottawa does indeed manage to secure even a trade framework this summer, which provides some clarity, we will be upgrading our H2 growth outlook.
Less uncertainty, coupled with solid financial markets, and what’s now looking like a bountiful fiscal push, could lift growth much higher than our current call of a small dip in Q3 and a 1% advance in Q4.”
Of commodities, gold held steady Friday amid light electronic trade with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $3.60 to US$3,346.50 per ounce.
The price of the precious metal has remained rangebound since closing at a record $3,452.80 per ounce on June 13.
But West Texas Intermediate oil prices fell for a second day on increasing supply.
WTI oil for August delivery was last seen down $0.50 to US$66.50 per barrel, while September Brent crude was down $0.50 to US$68.30.
US
US markets closed for Independence Day(United States).

Have a lovely weekend.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab

“If you have the words, there’s always a chance that you’ll find the way.”– Seamus Heaney

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.582

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Dog Days, hottest days of the year: July 3-August 11.
Earth at Aphelion: Furthest from the sun.
July 3, 1928: John Logie Baird demonstrates the first colour television transmission in London, pioneering broadcast technology.
July 3, 1985: The time-travel comedy “Back to the Future,” starring Michael J. Fox and Christopher Lloyd, was released in movie theaters. Go to article.

Franz Kafka, writer, b. 1883.
Tom Cruise, actor, b. 1962.

Astronomers spot potential ‘interstellar visitor’ shooting through the solar system toward Earth
A newly discovered object, dubbed A11pl3Z, appears to be moving too fast and straight to have originated in the solar system. If confirmed, it will be the third interstellar visitor ever spotted. Read More.

8 ancient Roman shoes of ‘exceptional size’ discovered at Roman fort near Hadrian’s Wall
Eight XXL leather shoes have been recovered from Magna, a Roman-era fort along Hadrian’s Wall. Read More.

James Webb telescope discovers tentacled ‘jellyfish’ galaxy swimming through deep space
A possible new “jellyfish” galaxy discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope could deepen our understanding of galaxy evolution and star formation. Read More.

Wild orcas offer humans food. Could they be trying to make friends — or manipulate us?
Researchers have documented orcas dropping prey and other marine life in front of humans, as if offering us food. The orcas’ motives are uncertain, but the sharing behavior could be an attempt at a cross-species relationship or manipulation. Read More.

‘We don’t need that in Australia’
Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, will not be able to visit Australia anytime soon.

Mothers and daughters
Apple TV+ plans to launch a new series based on Jennette McCurdy’s bestselling memoir, “I’m Glad My Mom Died.” And a big star just signed on to play the mother.

Travis Kelce’s ‘SNL’ situation
The NFL player enjoyed hosting “Saturday Night Live,” but he found one aspect of the gig truly challenging.

Be prepared to wait
AMC Theaters has signed a deal with National CineMedia to place even more advertising on the big screen before each movie begins.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wonsan, North Korea
Domestic tourists visit the beach at Wonsan Kalma, a massive resort on the east coast of the country. A pet project of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, the resort is expected to welcome Russian guests later this month
Photograph: Kim Won Jin/AFP/Getty Images

London, UK
Ajla Tomljanovic and Viktoriya Tomova play Eri Hozumi and Aldila Sutjiadi in the first round of the women’s doubles of Wimbledon 2025 on day four of the tennis championships. Hozumi and Sutjiadi won the match 7-6 6-2
Photograph: Julian Finney/Getty Images

Barcelona, Spain
A woman paddleboard at sunrise on the Mediterranean Sea as Europe struggles with a heatwave
Photograph: Nacho Doce/Reuters
Market Closes for July 3^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44828.53	+344.11
		+0.77%
S&P 500	6279.35	+51.93
		+0.83
NASDAQ	20601.10	+207.97
		+1.02%
TSX	27034.26	+164.60
		+0.61%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39785.90	+23.42
		+0.06%
HANG SENG	24069.94	-151.47
		-0.63%
SENSEX	83239.47	-170.22
		-0.20%
FTSE 100*	8823.20	+48.51
		+0.55%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.386	3.360
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.670	3.647
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3457	4.2788
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8613	4.8021

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7361	0.7360
US $	1.3585	1.3586

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5974	0.6260
US $	1.1757	0.8505

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3335.70	3349.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.00	65.45

Market Commentary:
A worsening in the government finances is associated with a lower interest rate on government debt. -Maria Belen Sbrancia, The Liquidation of Government Debt, 2011.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.6%, or 164.6 to 27,034.26 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Cargojet Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.5%.
Today, 129 of 213 shares rose, while 83 fell; 9 of 11

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended May 16
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.8% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.34t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.13% compared with 5.97% in the previous session and the average of 6.54% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 71.4203| 0.8| 22/3
Information Technology | 45.7131| 1.7| 9/0
Materials | 20.8965| 0.6| 33/15
Industrials | 13.6832| 0.4| 20/9
Consumer Staples | 10.1744| 1.0| 10/0
Utilities | 2.4461| 0.2| 10/5
Consumer Discretionary | 2.4176| 0.3| 4/5
Real Estate | 0.9664| 0.2| 6/13
Communication Services | 0.1522| 0.0| 3/2
Health Care | -1.1058| -1.6| 0/3
Energy | -2.1831| -0.1| 12/28
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange kept its upward streak intact on Thursday, rising to its third-straight record close as it climbed above the 27,000 marks as investors continue to show they are comfortable adding risk as a report showed Canada’s international exports are on the rise.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 164.6 points to close at 27,034.26,, topping Wednesday’s record close of 26,869.66.
Most sectors were higher, with the Battery Metals climbing 4.4%, leading gains.
Healthcare was at the bottom of the list, dropping 1.7%.
Scotiabank, in its monthly publication on Canada-US Trade, said May may mark the beginning of a recovery in trade for Canada.
Statistics Canada reported that Canadian exports rose 1.1% in May, following a steep 10.8% drop in April.
This was the first export increase in four months.
Exports to the US fell by 0.9%, while exports to other countries rose by 5.7%, continuing a recent trend of growing trade outside the United States.
Canada is now less dependent on the United States for trade than before, with the share of exports going to the US dropping from 76% in 2024 to 68% in May.
John McNally, Senior Policy Advisor at Scotiabank, said that for Canada-US trade, the future is uncertain.
“A handshake deal to make a trade deal by July 21 offers promise to maintain stability or improve circumstances, but Canada has also committed to raise counter-tariffs on steel and aluminum imports if no agreement is reached by that date.
This could be a negotiating ploy or could re-escalate tensions mid-summer.
The recent reversal on the DST indicates a potential Canadian bias towards making a deal.”
The report added that one month of slightly improved trade does not answer all questions.
It will take a few more months, especially through July and August, before the full effects of tariff changes on prices, investment, and spending become clear.
For now, the data shows early signs of recovery but still reflects past disruptions.
Robert Embree, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research, said with no large rebound in exports, he and the team remain “fundamentally bearish” on the Canadian dollar, as the weak employment and growth numbers should compel faster than expected Bank of Canada easing over the next nine months.
“The large trade deficit is another bearish pressure for the loonie, and the export growth after last month’s huge hit shows that the BoC has more work to do,” he added.
Vikram Barhat at Morningstar said Canadian stocks had a strong second quarter despite global uncertainty and a trade war led by US President Donald Trump.
Analysts credit this performance to the Canadian market’s defensive qualities, low stock prices, and a heavy focus on financial companies, which attracted investors.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower amid signs the market is oversupplied as US inventories rise during the summer driving season, with OPEC+ boosting production, while risk premiums ease as Middle East tensions fade.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.45 to settle at US$67.00 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.29 to US$68.82.
Gold traded lower late afternoon on Thursday as the dollar and yields spiked after the United States added more new jobs than expected last month, easing concerns the No.1 economy is slowing.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$21.70 to US$3,338.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasuries fell, and the dollar rose as stronger-than-forecast employment growth soothed concern the US economy is poised to slow, stanching speculation the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates any time soon.
Stocks hit fresh all-time highs.
Short-dated bonds led the rout, with two-year yields up 10 basis points to 3.88%.
Swap traders saw almost no chance of a Fed reduction in July, compared with a roughly 25% probability seen before the data.
The chance of a move in September ebbed to about 70%.
The S&P 500 climbed nearly 1%, with tech and banks driving gains.
The equity market closed at 1 p.m. New York time for the July 4 holiday.
Treasury trading wrapped up at 2 p.m.
US job growth exceeded expectations in June as a surge in public education employment masked a slowdown in hiring across the rest of the economy.
Payrolls increased 147,000 and the jobless rate declined to 4.1%.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% from May and 3.7% from a year ago — the smallest since July 2024.
“The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut,” said Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments.
“A wage-price inflationary spiral shouldn’t be a near-term concern, setting up something resembling a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powel has recently reiterated that the labor market remains solid, with officials refraining from lowering rates as they wait to see the impact of tariffs on inflation.
“The June jobs report should give the Fed more breathing room as they rely on a solid jobs market and economy to hold off on rate cuts while awaiting any potential inflationary impacts from tariffs,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“The June jobs report is like a summer blockbuster — plenty of action and a surprise twist,” said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“For investors, this is a green light to lean into opportunity, but stay diversified.
The economic engine is still humming, but now’s the time to tune up your portfolio before fall volatility rolls in.”
To Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, there are enough positive macro and fundamental drivers for markets to make additional gains, but there may be some near-term volatility as issues like tariffs need to be resolved.
Headline numbers from the June jobs report took pressure off the Fed to consider a rate cut later this month, but the solid figures masked weakness in private payrolls and other potential warning signs of deterioration in the labor market.
That’s a trend that could raise the stakes later in the year.
“While today’s report points to still firm job creation, we don’t think the underlying details of the report are as supportive as suggested by the top-line beat,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“The story of a low- fire, low-hire labor market continues to hold for now.”
With the Fed likely waiting until later this quarter or the next one before cutting rates, the stock market is likely to ignore the greater macroeconomic picture in the short run and focus much more on the start of the earnings season in mid July,
said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“We have been encouraged by the rapid recovery of the stock market these past three months but are concerned that valuations are high and that a lot of the good news is already priced in,” he noted.
“So the market is much more vulnerable to negative surprises at this point.”
To David Laut at Abound Financial, valuations aren’t a concern right now as “the market has too much inertia and there is room for valuations to expand.”
“We are sticking with the winners, which includes growth stocks, which have led the market since the April lows,” he said.
“Growth has led us out of the downturn, and we would expect this category to broaden out across company market caps, especially as interest rates decline.”

Corporate Highlights:
* President Donald Trump’s administration has lifted recent export license requirements for chip design software sales in China, as Washington and Beijing implement a trade deal for both countries to ease some restrictions on critical technologies.
* CoreWeave Inc. said it has received the market’s first artificial intelligence server system based on the newest, high- end Nvidia Corp. chip, a sign of its rising stature in the competitive AI cloud-computing space.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. and Lucid Group Inc. rallied as BNP Paribas sees the EV makers benefiting Trump’s tax and spending bill ending electric-vehicle tax credits.
* United Parcel Service Inc. plans to offer voluntary buyouts to union-represented delivery drivers for the first time in the company’s history as part of an effort to boost profit by slimming down its operations.
* BlackRock Inc. is considering a sale of its stake in the leasing rights to Saudi Aramco’s natural-gas pipeline network back to the energy giant, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Volkswagen AG’s Audi won’t increase prices in the US in July after its sales there nosedived in the second quarter.
* Zurich Insurance Group AG agreed to buy BOXX Insurance Inc, a Canadian cyber risk management firm, marking the Swiss insurer’s latest push into the insurance technology sector

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8%
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1752
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3645
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 145.09 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $109,595.62
* Ether fell 0.5% to $2,578.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.35%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $66.93 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,328.88 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Smooth seas never made a skilled sailor. –Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1882-1945.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Halfway Day, 182nd day of the year.

July 2, 1698: Thomas Savery patents the first steam engine, laying the groundwork for industrial steam power.
July 2, 1776: Declaration of Independence.
On July 2, 1937, aviator Amelia Earhart and navigator Fred Noonan disappeared over the Pacific Ocean while attempting to make the first round-the-world flight at the equator. Go to article.
1964: Civil Rights Act.

Herman Hesse, writer, b. 1887.
Jerry Hall, model, b.1956.
Lindsay Lohan, actress, b.1986.

Too darn hot
A marine heat wave in the Mediterranean Sea that combined with a powerful heat dome is causing Europe to swelter. Even the Eiffel Tower in Paris had to close.

Let’s dive into it
The new Netflix documentary, “Shark Whisperer,” has people talking. Is conservationist Ocean Ramsey bringing attention to the plight of sharks or is she risking her life for fame? 

What’s in a name?
Actor Rob McElhenney (“It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia,” “Welcome to Wrexham”) has decided to legally change his name.

The secrets of the Louvre
Elaine Sciolino, author of the book “Adventures in the Louvre: How to Fall in Love with the World’s Greatest Museum,” shares some of her discoveries.

Rare snowfall in Atacama Desert forces the world’s most powerful radio telescope into ‘survival mode’
The ALMA radio telescope array in the Atacama Desert temporarily halted operations after a rare snowfall blanketed the base camp last week. Read More.

2 ‘new stars’ have exploded into the night sky at once — potentially for the first time in history
Astronomers have spotted another never-before-seen “nova” blaze to life in the night sky. This may be the first time that simultaneous stellar explosions have been visible
to the naked eye in recorded history. Read More.

Zapping the brain may help boost math skills, study hints
A study suggests that carefully controlled electrical stimulation of the brain may improve math skills, most significantly in people with weaker connections in a specific part of the brain. Read More.

ChatGPT could pilot a spacecraft shockingly well, early tests find
In a recent contest, teams of researchers competed to see who could train an AI model to best pilot a spaceship. The results suggest that an era of autonomous space exploration may be closer than we think. Read More.

138 years:  🥫 That’s how long Del Monte Foods has been around, but the company best known for its canned fruits and vegetables just filed for bankruptcy and is looking for a buyer.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Rome, Italy
Fireworks explode over Castel Sant’Angelo to mark the Feast of Rome’s patron saints Peter and Paul
Photograph: Valentina Stefanelli/AP

Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
People gather for the second annual Cat Beauty Festival organised by the Royal Veterinary Hospital, with an aim to promote a love of animals and raise awareness about feline care
Photograph: Fariq Faraj Mahmood/Anadolu/Getty Images

Henley on Thames, Oxfordshire
Rowers on the River Thames on an overcast, cool morning on the second day of the Henley Royal Regatta, a contrast to the first day’s extreme heat
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock
Market Closes for June 2^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44484.42	-10.52
		-0.02%
S&P 500	6227.42	+29.41
		+0.47
NASDAQ	20393.13	+190.24
		+0.94%
TSX	26869.66	+12.54
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39762.48	-223.85
		-0.56%
HANG SENG	24221.41	+149.13
		+0.62%
SENSEX	83409.69	-287.60
		-0.34%
FTSE 100*	8774.69	-10.64
		-0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.360	3.274
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.647	3.563
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2788	4.2280
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8021	4.7743

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7360	0.7348
US $	1.3586	1.3609

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6033	0.6237
US $	1.1799	0.8475

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3349.00	3271.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.45	65.52

Market Commentary:
The great divide in politics, the divide between those who believe in a centrally controlled, planned economy and those who believe in a freely developing economy, does not skirt the frontiers of monetary policy, but runs slap through the middle.  Those who are thus divided on the other aspects of policy will also be divided on monetary policy. -1959 speech, J. Enoch Powell, 1912-1998.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 26,869.66 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 6 of 11 sectors gained; 112 of 213 shares rose, while 99 fell.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Bombardier Inc. had the largest increase, rising 21.4%.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.1% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.34t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.97% compared with 6.64% in the previous session and the average of 6.60% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 34.4994| 1.0| 30/16
Industrials | 20.4242| 0.6| 18/11
Communication Services | 14.5637| 2.4| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 13.6944| 1.5| 8/1
Health Care | 1.0995| 1.6| 1/2
Real Estate | 0.6106| 0.1| 9/10
Utilities | -3.8692| -0.4| 7/8
Energy | -5.6625| -0.1| 22/18
Consumer Staples | -10.4696| -1.0| 2/8
Information Technology | -15.9218| -0.6| 3/7
Financials | -36.4367| -0.4| 8/17
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 18.9800| 2.7| 4.4| 6.7
Canadian Natural Resources | 18.4500| 2.9| -80.6| -0.7
Bombardier | 15.1700| 21.4| 543.0| 47.3
RBC | -13.4400| -0.8| 30.4| 2.8
Enbridge | -13.7100| -1.5| 4.2| -0.3
Waste Connections | -22.4100| -4.9| 169.9| -1.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange eked out its second-straight record high on Wednesday, as investors returned from the Canada Day holiday and bid up commodity issues on rising prices.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 12.55 points to close at 26,869.66, topping the prior record close of 26,857.12 struck Monday.
Among sectors, Base Metals and Telecoms were the biggest gainers, up 3.6% and 2.6%, respectively, along with Health Care, up 1.8%.
Information Technology was the biggest decliner, down 0.6%.
In a Tuesday note, Sohrab Movahedi, Managing Director, Financials Research at BMO Capital Markets, said that in the first half of 2025, Canadian bank stocks outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite Index by 136 basis points.
Historically, when Canadian banks have outperformed the market in the first half of the year, they have gone on to beat it for the full year 96% of the time.
All six major Canadian banks delivered positive total returns in early 2025, and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO) was the top performer, with a total return of 34.4%, beating both the overall market and the Canadian bank index, the note said.
“We reiterate our view of limited re-rating opportunities at the Canadian banks and expect the higher return-on-equity banks, namely National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, to retain their relative valuation gains for the foreseeable future,” Movahedi added.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Wednesday, even as a report showed an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories last week and OPEC+ added another large tranche of new supply to the market.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $2.00 to settle at US$67.45 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up $2.02 to US$69.13.
Gold went higher for a third-straight session late afternoon on Wednesday, as the dollar edged down.
This came a day after touching the lowest in more than three years amid worries over rising U.S. fiscal deficits after the Senate passed a controversial budget bill and a report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. private sector hiring last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $19.20 to US$3.369.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in several big techs fueled gains in stocks, with the market extending its advance as President Donald Trump said he reached a trade deal with Vietnam.
Treasuries fell as a selloff in UK bonds underscored deficit worries.
The dollar was steady.
Following earlier losses driven by weak jobs data, the S&P 500 rose to fresh all-time highs.
Nike Inc. climbed alongside other apparel and footwear companies amid hopes the latest US trade deal will avert a potential supply-chain catastrophe.
Tech megacaps led gains, with Tesla Inc. jumping 5% as a drop in sales was seen as better than feared.
Marvell Technology Inc. slid about 2.5% on a report that Microsoft Corp. is scaling back its ambitions for AI chips to overcome delays.
Longer-dated Treasuries underperformed, following moves in the UK, where concerns about Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ future reignited questions over the nation’s fiscal position.
Investors have raised similar concerns in the US, where the Senate passed Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill.
In the run-up to the jobs report, economists forecast employers added 110,000 jobs in June — the fewest in four months — amid a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report is due Thursday, a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday.
Data Wednesday showed employment at US companies fell for the first time in over two years.
Despite signs of a downshift, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeated the labor market remains solid.
Policymakers have refrained from lowering interest rates this year as they wait to see the impact of tariffs on inflation.
“One of the reasons the Fed has been able to be patient before cutting rates was because the job market was holding up so well, so if that were to change, then the Fed may be forced to move earlier than they would like,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
Following the ADP Research’s private payrolls data, traders added to wagers on at least two rate reductions this year, with the first coming in September.
If the upcoming jobs report shows further weakness, traders reckon the Fed could move up cuts.
“The ADP report increased the odds of a downside surprise in Thursday’s nonfarm payroll release,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“Investor jitters could be a catalyst for a drop in yields tomorrow if the jobs report is weaker than expected.
I expect a weaker-than-consensus report, increasing the odds the Fed cuts three times this year.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed investors are watching US payrolls more than normal this time and expect a weaker print.
Among the respondents, 44% expect the reaction to the data will be “mixed/negligible”, 41% said “risk-off” and only 15% “risk-on.”
“Even a modestly underwhelming print versus the current +110,000 headline consensus would likely be dismissed as already priced in at current levels,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“It would likely take a sub-50,000 headline payrolls figure to get the market decidedly in bond- bullish mode.”
A single disappointing payrolls print alone wouldn’t be enough to drive a July Fed move, they said.
Meantime, while stock buyers have stormed back into the market over the past couple of months, Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management says he’d be cautious right now because valuations are high, the economy is slowing its pace of expansion and it’s possible that we’ve reached full employment.
Sentiment has been supportive of the rebound in US stocks, but the outlook for valuations and earnings suggests the rally is getting overbought from a fundamental perspective, according to RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina.
“Overall conditions in US equities didn’t seem frothy quite yet but were headed down that path,” they wrote.
“If we do end up getting some inflation pressure or broader economic potholes from tariffs or the Fed doesn’t cut after all, we think it will come as a negative surprise to many investors.”
As stocks snapped back from the throes of April’s tariff selloff, a Barclays Plc measure of the market’s “irrational exuberance” has seen a swift jump.
The one-month average on the proprietary gauge has swung back into the double-digits for the first time since February — reaching levels that have signaled extreme frothiness in the past.
“Just when a bit of panic set into the minds of some investors, stocks turned seemingly on a dime and gained back all that was lost and then some,” said Scott Wren at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“Our feel is that stocks are ahead of themselves, and we are looking to trim positions in overvalued markets and sectors.”
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Market Pulse gauge approached manic levels in June, hinting that the market’s record run is in jeopardy of becoming overheated.
“Historically, markets have cooled after such sentiment peaks,” said BI’s Gillian Wolff.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. climbed after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the tech giant to hold from underperform.
* Intel Corp. slid after Reuters reported CEO Lip-Bu Tan is exploring a potential strategy shift in its foundry business that would entail no longer marketing certain chipmaking technology to external customers, citing people familiar.
* OpenAI has agreed to rent a massive amount of computing power from Oracle Corp. data centers as part of its Stargate initiative, underscoring the intense requirements for cutting- edge artificial intelligence products.
* Microsoft Corp. began job cuts that will impact about 9,000 workers, its second major wave of layoffs this year as it seeks to control costs while ramping up on artificial intelligence spending.
* Wall Street’s largest lenders boosted their dividends after passing this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, a hurdle that regulators made easier to clear by softening some of the requirements laid out in previous years.
* Health insurer Centene Corp. shocked investors when it withdrew its profit outlook on precipitously rising risks from Affordable Care Act plans, sending shares plummeting.
* The US Justice Department urged a judge in Texas to accept a proposed settlement agreement reached with Boeing Co. that would allow the planemaker to avoid a criminal charge in a longstanding case over two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets.
* Bombardier Inc. jumped after the Quebec-based private jet- maker announced a $1.7 billion aircraft order with an anonymous client.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. produced about half as many electric vehicles as Wall Street expected in the second quarter prior to the launch of 2026 model year vehicles later this month.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1802
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3634
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 143.62 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.5% to $109,709.03
* Ether rose 7.7% to $2,602.84
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.66%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 16 basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.7% to $67.21 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,358.31 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You’re as old as the risks you take. In many ways, aging is not the process of growing old, but rather the slow death of becoming overly protective, scared and worried about losing what you have.  Youth is found in the energy of going for it, taking the risk, and trusting that you’ll figure it out along the way. -James Clear, b. 1986.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
 
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday. Burning of the Three Firs, France.
June 30, 1905: Albert Einstein submits a paper outlining his theory of special relativity, redefining the relationship between space and time.
June 30, 1908: An asteroid exploded above Tunguska in Siberia, leaving 800 square miles of scorched or blown-down trees. Go to article

Lena Horne, singer, b.1917.
Susan Hayward, actress, b. 1918
Mike Tyson, boxer, b. 1966.

A forest returns
Underwater forests of cray-weed are slowly being restored off Australia’s southeastern coast after disappearing in the 1980s, likely due to dumped sewage.

Bey is safe!
Singer Beyoncé had to briefly stop the show in Houston after her “flying” car prop experienced a mishap in midair.

Blue screen goes bye bye
Microsoft’s infamous “blue screen of death,” which would appear on computer monitors whenever Windows users experienced “unexpected restarts,” will soon be retired

Roman army camp found in Netherlands, beyond the empire’s frontier
Archaeologists and students in the Netherlands have unearthed a 1,800-year-old temporary Roman military fort in the Netherlands. Read More.

See the stunning reconstruction of a Stone Age woman who lived 10,500 years ago in Belgium
The detailed reconstruction brings the prehistoric hunter-gatherer to life, revealing an intriguing set of features. Read More.

Scientists discover rare planet at the edge of the Milky Way using space-time phenomenon predicted by Einstein
Using gravitational microlensing, scientists have discovered a rare, large planet at the edge of the Milky Way. The planet is only the third to be found on the outskirts of our galaxy’s dense central bulge. Read More.

MIT’s high-tech ‘bubble wrap’ turns air into safe drinking water — even in Death Valley
Researchers at MIT have tested a new technology for turning water vapor in the atmosphere into drinkable water, even in extreme environments. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Berlin, Germany
Visitors crowd around a titan arum plant, measuring 2.36 metres high, as it blooms in the city’s botanical garden
Photograph: John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images

Shanghai, China
Tourists flock to visit the Louis, Louis Vuitton’s new flagship store shaped like a ship that houses retail, dining and cultural experiences
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

London, UK
Spectators wearing strawberry hats queue for entry on the opening day of the 2025 Wimbledon Tennis Championships
Photograph: Mike Egerton/PA
Market Closes for June 30^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44094.77	+275.50
		+0.63%
S&P 500	6204.95	+31.88
		+0.52
NASDAQ	20369.73	+96.27
		+0.47%
TSX	26857.11	+164.79
		+0.62%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40487.39	+336.60
		+0.84%
HANG SENG	24072.28	-211.87
		-0.87%
SENSEX	83606.44	-452.46
		-0.54%
FTSE 100*	8760.96	-37.95
		-0.43%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.274	3.307
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.563	3.596
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2280	4.2769
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7743	4.8351

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7348	0.7304
US $	1.3609	1.3691

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6035	0.6236
US $	1.1784	0.8486

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3271.75	3318.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.52	65.24

Market Commentary:
Don’t gamble.  Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it.  If it don’t go up, don’t buy it. -Will Rogers, 1879-1935.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 26,857.11 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.0%.
Lundin Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.5%.
Today, 175 of 213 shares rose, while 38 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 7.8%
* This month, the index rose 2.6%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.32t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.64% compared with 6.48% in the previous session and the average of 6.70% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 55.8156| 1.6| 42/6
Financials | 49.2299| 0.6| 20/5
Industrials | 20.1797| 0.6| 25/4
Information Technology | 19.1630| 0.7| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 7.2544| 0.8| 8/1
Communication Services | 6.6249| 1.1| 5/0
Consumer Staples | 5.5673| 0.6| 9/1
Utilities | 2.9332| 0.3| 10/5
Real Estate | 1.5223| 0.3| 16/3
Health Care | 1.1485| 1.7| 3/0
Energy | -4.6388| -0.1| 28/12
RBC | 17.5000| 1.0| 106.9| 3.5
Shopify | 11.3200| 0.9| -5.9| 2.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 11.1100| 2.0| 11.5| 44.3
Manulife Financial | -3.4710| -0.7| -36.4| -1.4
Suncor | -3.8610| -0.9| -33.0| -0.6
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.5380| -0.7| -60.0| -3.6
(MT Newswires)
Canadian investors kicked off their celebrations early ahead of tomorrow’s Canada Day holiday by pushing the Toronto Stock Exchange to another fresh record close on Monday.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 164.79 points at 26,857.11, well up from what was then a record close of 26,388.96 struck on June 2, the first of eight record highs set over the month.
Most sectors were higher on Monday.
The biggest gainers were Health Care, up 1.9%. and Telecom, up 1.3%.
Two influential sectors in Energy, down 0.5%, and Base Metals down 0.35%, were lower.
Over recent months Canadians have been using the phrase ‘elbows up’, originating from the idea of protecting yourself or fighting back in hockey, to encourage each other to stand up to the United States in the face of threats to the country’s economy and sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Investors appear to have adopted the phrase when investing, driving the TSX to the series of record closes in June despite outside threats from a global tariffs war, which could lead to a global recession, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
The gains have also come even as the Canadian economy has been struggling of late.
Veteran market watcher, David Rosenberg, likely wouldn’t mind seeing some ‘elbows up’ from officials at the Bank of Canada in terms of their thinking on interest rates.
In a note published June 27, Rosenberg noted the Canadian economy had enjoyed a “false glow” from a sales tax holiday and the front-running of spending and exports ahead of the U.S.-imposed tariffs.
“But now its true colors are showing.” he said, noting “an economy as flat as a queue de castor”, referring to what French-speaking Canadians call popular pastries otherwise known as ‘beaver tails’, a sort of doughnut.
He noted Real GDP dipped 0.1% month over month in April, falling below the consensus call of 0%, after a modestly upward revision to March to 0.2% from 0.1%.
Meanwhile, StatCan’s estimate for May also showed a 0.1% contraction.
The year over year trend “melted” to a rise of 1.3% from 1.8% and the build-in for Q2 real GDP is now running at a fall of 0.3% sequential annualized rate.
Rosenberg said: “There is something happening beyond the tariff file alone — though the effects were seen in the sharp -0.9% pullback in industrial production — because the services sector barely expanded and has all but stagnated since the turn of the year. Transportation services and wholesale trade are in a deep funk.
So are building materials and clothing, the former tied to the housing market and the latter linked to the jobs cycle.”
“The Bank of Canada,” Rosenberg added, “would be well advised to remove its fixation on lagging inflation data and shift its focus to what the future will bring as the disinflationary output gap begins to widen again.
The case for a July rate cut … is pretty strong, but stepping on the gas pedal again will require that Tiff Macklem stop playing the dual role of deer in the headlights and ostrich with its head in the sand.”
Elsewhere, Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, also noted the TSX enters the summer at a record high, despite the ongoing trade war stress and a clear slowdown in economic growth.
Among the reasons for the resilience he cited are expectations that a trade deal is looming; favorable valuations coming into the year; and the reality that the index isn’t the best representation of the underlying Canadian economy.
What, Kavcic asks, has helped the TSX? He noted strength in gold has lifted TSX materials by more than 20% this year, the banks have performed well, pacing the broad index and consumer stocks have been firm.
The only real drags, he noted, have been energy and health care.
Kavic added: “BMO’s strategy team continues to like Canadian equities given current valuations and a low earnings expectations bar. We just need some of this strength to bleed into the real economy”.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower on Monday as strong summer demand is offset by rising supply with OPEC+ readying to again raise output, adding 411,000 barrels per day to the market beginning on Tuesday, its fourth tranche of monthly production hikes.
The group is said to be considering another same-sized tranche in August.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down $0.41 to settle at US$65.11 per barrel, while August Brent oil expired down $0.16 to US$67.61.
But gold traded higher late afternoon on Monday as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $32.30 to US$3,319.90 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s bulls drove stocks to all-time highs at the end of a solid quarter amid hopes the US is moving closer to reaching concrete deals with its top trading partners.
Bets the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts powered the best first-half stretch for Treasuries in five years.
The dollar saw its longest monthly slide since 2017.
Following a roughly 25% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 notched its best quarter since December 2023.
The US equity benchmark topped the 6,200 milestone on Monday, with technology shares leading the charge.
Apple Inc. climbed the most among megacaps.
Oracle Corp. jumped on a cloud-services deal worth $30 billion a year.
Big banks gained after passing the Fed’s annual stress test, setting the stage for payouts.
“Markets proved remarkably adaptable and resilient in the face of geopolitical shocks and trade uncertainty in the first half, largely because economic and profit conditions stood on firm footing,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
Just days ahead of the US jobs report, bonds rose.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense to ramp up sales of longer-term debt given where yields are, though he held out hope that rates across maturities will be falling as inflation slows.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is now projecting a Fed cut in September as the inflationary effects of tariffs “look a bit smaller” than expected.
A relative sense of calm prevailed at the end of a first half that saw wild swings lashing markets across the board amid President Donald Trump’s fast-evolving trade war, world conflicts, recession jitters as well as concerns about a ballooning deficit that could threaten America’s status as a safe haven.
“No one could fault an investor if at one point during the first half of 2025 they shouted, ‘Stop the world, I want to get off’,” said Sam Stovall at CFRA.
With Trump’s July 9 trade deadline fast approaching, the European Union is willing to accept a deal with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but seeks key exemptions.
Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan, citing what he said was the country’s unwillingness to accept rice exports from the US.
“The biggest catalyst for financial markets as a whole could be progress in trade talks – of a lack thereof,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“As long as there are no major escalations again in the Middle East or in the trade war, you’d think stock markets may not suffer much on any macro data. Still, there is always room for surprises.”
“While tariff headlines could periodically unsettle markets, we do not currently see them as a catalyst for a sustained market selloff,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“For investors under-allocated to broad equity markets, we recommend gradually increasing exposure to diversified global stocks or balanced portfolios to position for stronger potential returns in 2026 and beyond.”
US stocks could come under pressure if Fed rate cuts are accompanied by weaker economic growth, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka.
As long as there isn’t a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate, American equities are likely to get a boost from Fed policy easing, said Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
“The market has shrugged off signs of a slowing economy, but with the tariff picture still up in the air, a negative surprise on the jobs front could have more of an impact, especially during what will likely be a light-volume holiday week,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Economists forecast employers added 113,000 jobs in June, the fewest in four months yet still consistent with healthy labor demand.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report is due Thursday, a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday.
It’s also forecast to show the unemployment rate crept up to 4.3%.
For a Fed awaiting more clarity on the potential inflationary impact from tariffs, any pronounced deterioration in the labor market would likely lead to more pressure on officials to lower interest rates.
But the higher the S&P 500 goes, the louder the concern that its multiples are starting to look frothy.
The index is trading at 22 times expected profits in the next 12 months, 35% above its long-term average, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Earlier on Friday, Bank of America Corp. strategists warned of the increasing risk of a speculative stock-market bubble as traders drive massive flows into equities on expectations of US interest-rate cuts.
The upcoming earnings season could also test the foundation of the recent rally, especially with lackluster forecasts piling in.
US profit margins will face a big test in the upcoming reporting season as investors assess the damage from Trump’s trade war, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin.
They say earnings will “capture the immediate effects” of tariffs that have already increased by about 10 percentage points since the start of the year.
“Healthy economic fundamentals are an ultimate buffer for negative headlines, after all,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“As such, equities should remain resilient unless an adverse event materializes into something larger that curtails household spending and company earnings.”
That said, Shah also notes that given the uncertain policy backdrop, a broader hit to market sentiment cannot be ruled out.
“In this environment, it’s essential for investors to maintain well-diversified portfolios designed to navigate periods of heightened uncertainty,” she said.
“Those looking for an accommodative Fed to keep the market rising in the second half of the year will be quite disappointed,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“The market could indeed push higher as we move through July/August and beyond.
Momentum can be a powerful force in the markets, so if the stock market rallies further as we move through earnings season, the whole thing could feed on itself.”
Since World War II, there have only been three times where the market was down more than 10% and still finished positive – and we’re shaping up to do it again, noted Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“As we look ahead, the labor market data will be critical, but it will be how the market reacts that is most important, not the numbers themselves,” he said.
“If equities rally on weak jobs figures, we’re clearly in ‘bad news is good news’ mode, with investors betting on Fed support.”
While momentum is working in the market’s favor, with valuations at such levels and earnings estimates holding, “we are likely stealing returns from the back half of the year,” Hackett said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. rallied after the Justice Department settled its lawsuit challenging the company’s $13 billion takeover of Juniper Networks, less than two weeks before a trial was set to start.
* Meta Platforms Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg announced a major restructuring of the company’s artificial intelligence group, including a commitment to developing AI “superintelligence,” or systems that can complete tasks as well as or even better than humans.
* Apple Inc. is considering using artificial intelligence technology from Anthropic PBC or OpenAI to power a new version of Siri, sidelining its own in-house models in a potentially blockbuster move aimed at turning around its flailing AI effort.
* Moderna Inc. said its experimental flu shot met its goal in a late-stage trial, clearing the path for its broader strategy of selling combination vaccines.
* Republican lawmakers are debating a bill that ramps up Trump’s assault on wind and solar power, a worse-than-expected jolt that would drive up costs for clean energy while providing aid for fossil fuels.
* Trump blasted AT&T Inc. for poor network performance during a conference call he was holding with faith leaders on Monday.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. is joining the growing push to trade US equities on the blockchain, making tokenized US securities available to 150,000 customers in 30 countries, 24 hours a day, five days a week.
* Nintendo Co. pulled its products from Amazon.com Inc.’s US site after a disagreement over unauthorized sales, meaning the e-commerce company missed out on the recent debut of Nintendo’s Switch 2 — the biggest game console launch of all time.
* Boeing Co.’s $4.7 billion deal to buy Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. will face UK antitrust investigation, the country’s antitrust watchdog said.
* Home Depot Inc. has agreed to acquire specialty building products distributor GMS Inc. for $4.3 billion, its latest effort to grab more spending from professional contractors.
* The prospective buyer of TikTok’s American operations cited by Trump is the same investor consortium including Oracle Corp., Blackstone Inc. and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, whose bid for the app had stalled amid US-China trade tensions, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.3%
* KBW Bank Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1780
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3725
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 144.00 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $107,674.43
* Ether rose 3.2% to $2,511.28
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.24%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $65.04 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,308.41 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
When you learn, teach.  When you get, give. -Maya Angelou, 1928-2014.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com