Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On November 14, 1969: Apollo 12 was launched. Despite being struck by lightning twice during the first minute of flight, it went on to perform the second successful human landing on the Moon. Read more…

Cutting 1 teaspoon of salt works as well as blood pressure meds
Limiting sodium intake can significantly reduce hypertension, studies show. You may be surprised that these foods contain a full day’s worth of salt.

Scuba diver discovers 30,000 Roman coins off Italian coast
The well-preserved bronze coins found off the coast of Sardinia could be linked to a shipwreck.

Iceland volcano: Huge ‘magma tunnel’ forms beneath town
Authorities in Iceland have warned that a volcanic eruption is imminent, with the town of Grindavík, close to the country’s famous Blue Lagoon resort, evacuated

Claims of the multiverse may be founded in bad math
Our universe seems to be perfectly suited for life. But anyone who claims that’s evidence of a multiverse is falling prey to a logical fallacy.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Beijing, China
Tower blocks illuminated in the central business district at sunset
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Porto Jofre, Brazil
Smoke billows from forest fires in the Pantanal wetland in Mato Grosso state. Several fires have been ravaging the Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet. According to the specialists, these fires are primarily caused by human action, in particular the use of slash-and-burn techniques for agricultural expansion, and the situation at the end of the year has been exacerbated by an exceptional drought
Photograph: Rogerio Florentino/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Srinagar, Kashmir
A man rows his boat in Dal Lake amid foggy conditions
Photograph: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for November 14^th,2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34827.70	+489.83
		+1.43%
S&P 500	4495.70	+84.15
		+1.91%
NASDAQ	14094.38	+326.64
		+2.37%
TSX	20023.73	+314.58
		+1.60%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32695.93	+110.82
		+0.34%
HANG SENG	17396.86	-29.35
		-0.17%
SENSEX	64933.87	-325.58
		-0.50%
FTSE 100*	7440.47	+14.64
		+0.20%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.688	3.850
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.500	3.631
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4492	4.6360
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6280	4.7539

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7303	0.7242
US $	1.3693	1.3808

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4897	0.6713
US $	1.0879	0.9192

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1931.15	1941.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.26	78.26

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1986, the U.S. government announced it settled with top Wall Street arbitrageur Ivan Boesky on charges of securities fraud. The deal helped unravel a massive insider-trading scheme involving Michael Milken of Drexel Burnham Lambert.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 1.6%, or 314.58 to 20,023.73 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 2.9% on Nov. 2.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 186 of 227 shares rose, while 37 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.3%.
Ballard Power Systems Inc. had the largest increase, rising 10.4%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain two times. The next day, it declined 0.5% once and advanced 1% once
* This year, the index rose 3.3%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 0.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.9% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 7.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.1 on a trailing basis and 14.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.36% compared with 13.98% in the previous session and the average of 14.44% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 130.4662| 2.2| 27/1
Materials | 57.2205| 2.7| 47/5
Industrials | 36.0902| 1.4| 22/4
Information Technology | 30.5346| 1.9| 9/2
Utilities | 23.2136| 3.0| 15/0
Real Estate | 19.0814| 4.4| 21/0
Consumer Discretionary | 13.4671| 1.8| 11/3
Communication Services | 12.5266| 1.6| 4/1
Consumer Staples | 3.0307| 0.3| 7/4
Health Care | 1.6542| 3.1| 4/0
Energy | -12.7003| -0.3| 19/17
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 30.9900| 4.3|n/a | 91.0
Brookfield Corp | 26.9400| 6.0|n/a | 10.6
RBC | 22.0400| 1.9|n/a | -6.4
CAE | -2.9780| -4.4|n/a | 10.2
Suncor Energy | -4.9410| -1.2|n/a | 7.1
Constellation | | | |
Software | -5.2140| -1.2|n/a | 47.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed while bond yields tumbled as an unexpected inflation slowdown bolstered bets the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking cycle is now over — and the next move will be a rate cut next year.
The S&P 500 rose nearly 2%, the most since April.
Tesla Inc. led gains in megacaps and Nvidia Corp. rallied for a 10^th straight session.
Regional banks jumped almost 6%.
The Russell 2000 index of small caps added over 5%.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s basket of the most-shorted stocks beat the broader market in a sign some traders are preparing to cover bearish wagers.
Two-year yields plunged over 20 basis points.
The dollar fell the most since June 2022.
While Wall Street’s rally could risk further easing of financial conditions — and ultimately complicate the Fed’s job — bets on a “pivot” next year have increased.
Fed swaps indicate the odds of another hike have fallen to almost zero — with the market pricing in a 50 basis-point rate cut by July.
“The last of investors not convinced the Fed is done are likely ‘throwing in the towel’,” said Bryce Doty at Sit Fixed Income Advisors. “The next Fed action is more likely to be a cut next summer than another rate increase.”
To Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, while the cooler-than-expected numbers will likely encourage some investors to start planning for 2024 rate cuts, the Fed will probably continue to fight that narrative. “They’ve run a long race, and they won’t quit just because the finish line appears to be a little closer,” Larkin noted.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, whether or not the economy can stay out of recession remains to be seen, but the market should continue to rally as investors begin to accept the view that higher rates are off the table.
The drop in inflation suggests that recent monetary policy has been doing its job, which makes the prospect of a “soft landing” ever more likely, according to Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab UK.
The news reinforces the probability that officials will “hold off” from further rate hikes, he noted.
“With the US economy holding up, the inflation data are ‘soft-landing nirvana’ for the equity markets,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.
An intact disinflationary process means that the Fed can “sit tight for now” — which would lower the risk of an “overly restrictive policy”, according to Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments. Still, she cautions investors who are getting
“Too enthusiastic” as “financial conditions are now easing again, which keeps the Fed on guard and highly data dependent.” The Fed’s challenge is that the market tries to jump to the “endgame” — risking a larger or sooner easing in financial conditions than the Fed itself would like to see, said Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI. “So expect Fed officials to maintain a very cautious and relatively hawkish tone.”
Citadel founder Ken Griffin said the Fed risks a hit to its reputation if it cuts interest rates too quickly.
Cathie Wood, the head of ARK Investment Management, said that deflation is already underway in the US across industries and will force the central bank to kick off a big interest-rate cutting cycle.
Fed officials welcomed the latest data showing receding US inflation, while adding that there’s still a way to go before it reaches the central bank’s 2% target.
“Our base case remains that the Fed will not raise rates further,” said Brian Rose at UBS Global Wealth Management. “However, inflation is still too high and the labor market still too tight for the Fed to declare victory and announce an end to the rate-hiking cycle.” In Rose’s view, such an announcement is likely to be at least three months away unless the data takes a sudden turn toward the weaker side. Once an announcement is made, markets may quickly focus on the timing of the first rate cut, leading to lower bond yields and a weaker US dollar, he noted.
Equities have rallied in November on bets the Fed is done with rate hikes, with the S&P 500 up more than 7% in the span — and heading toward its best month since October 2022.
In the past 22 years, when the S&P 500 was up 5% or more by mid-November, the remainder of that year was positive every single time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Go back 50 years, and that setup was positive 26 out of 30 times, with the decline in the four exceptions being 1% or less.
Meantime, investors turned the most bullish on bonds since the global financial crisis amid “big conviction” that rates will move lower in 2024, according to the latest Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey.
The poll showed investors were dumping cash to hold the biggest overweight position in bonds since 2009.
Pacific Investment Management Co. — among the many whose expectations for a rally this year were disappointed — is renewing the call for 2024.
Bonds “have rarely been as attractive as they appear today” relative to stocks, Pimco managers Erin Browne, Geraldine Sundstrom and Emmanuel Sharef said in a report predicting “prime time” for the asset class in 2024.

Corporate Highlights:
* Home Depot Inc. narrowed its guidance for a decline in this year’s profit and revenue as home-improvement demand wanes.
* Boeing Co. extended its successful order haul on the second day of the Dubai Air Show, winning a deal from Ethiopian Airlines for more narrow- and widebody aircraft while rival Airbus SE continued to chase an increasingly elusive deal with Emirates.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google gives Apple Inc. a 36% share of the revenue earned via advertising from searches in the Safari browser to be the default search engine on Macs, iPhones and iPads, chief executive officer Sundar Pichai confirmed.
* Billionaire and former hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman has taken a late stake in Manchester United, the football club that’s nearing the end of a yearlong bidding war.
* Glencore Plc will buy a majority stake in Teck Resources Ltd.’s coal business, ending a months-long saga that transfixed the mining industry and setting the stage for the commodity giant to exit the coal business itself.
* Siemens Energy AG has secured a €15 billion ($16.2 billion) deal with the German government, its biggest shareholder Siemens AG and a consortium of banks, as the troubled manufacturer weathers massive losses at its wind-turbine unit.

Key events this week:
* China retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, Wednesday
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Wednesday
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* US retail sales, business inventories, PPI, Empire manufacturing, Wednesday
* Target earnings, Wednesday
* China new home prices, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Walmart earnings, Thursday
* US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to speak at APEC leaders summit, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed vice chair for supervision Michael Barr speak, Thursday
* Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden and ECB President Christine Lagarde speak at event, Thursday
* US housing starts, Friday
* US Congress faces a midnight deadline to pass a federal spending measure, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.2%
* The euro rose 1.7% to $1.0882
* The British pound rose 1.8% to $1.2501
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 150.25 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.3% to $35,274.04
* Ether fell 4.1% to $1,975.61
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 20 basis points to 4.44%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 2.60%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 16 basis points to 4.15%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $1,963.56 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Jan-Patrick Barnert, Allegra Catelli and Edward Bolingbroke.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“Time brings all things to pass.”– Aeschylus

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  It’s World Kindness Day.

November 13^th, 1927: Holland Tunnel opens, New York City.
November 13^th, 1994: Sweden votes to join the EU.  The referendum passed with over 50% of Swedish citizens voting to join the European Union.   The Nordic country officially joined the EU
on January 1, 1995.
1956: The Supreme Court struck down laws calling for racial segregation on public buses.  Go to article >>

Saint Augustine, b. 354.
The world is a great book; he who never stirs from home reads only a page. –Saint Augustine.

New volcanic island off Japan is now visible from space
A newly-formed island off the coast of Iwo Jima in the Pacific Ocean was spotted in satellite images after it emerged during an underwater volcanic eruption at the end of October. Read More.

Oxygen detected in Venus’ hellish atmosphere
In a first, researchers discovered oxygen atoms on the dayside and nightside of Venus’ atmosphere. Read More.

How Isaac Newton revealed the mystery of light
In this extract from the new book “Beautiful Experiments: An Illustrated History of Experimental Science”, science writer Philip Ball explains how Isaac Newton’s experiments transformed our understanding of light. Read More.

What to know about Diwali, one of the biggest festivals in India
More than a billion Hindus, Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists around the world are celebrating Diwali. Learn more about the festival of lights.

Big announcements in artificial intelligence
Several tech companies made big AI announcements over the last week. Catch up on the industry’s latest updates.

All aboard the night train
Night trains have been making a resurgence across Europe after decades of decline. Learn why more travelers are opting for this alternative to flying.

Self-care tips to fight the winter blues
Taking care of your health is key during the winter months when the lack of sunlight can bring on depressive symptoms and social isolation. Read these expert tips on how to cope with seasonal depression.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Catania, Italy
Mount Etna erupts and produces a volcanic cloud. The volcanic ash cloud has fallen on the south-east side of the volcano, particularly over the towns of Milo and Zafferana Etnea
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Anadolu/Getty Images

Hindu saints and devotees light oil lamps in a formation of the Ayodhya Ram temple inside a temple to celebrate Diwali in Ahmedabad, India
Photograph: Amit Dave/Reuters

​​​​​​​Paris, France
Thousands gather in front of the Palais Garnier opera house as dancers from across Europe perform Chiroptera. The facade of the opera house was transformed into a philosophical allegory of Plato’s cave as part of a new project by the French artist JR
Photograph: Kiran Ridley/Getty Images
Market Closes for November 13^th,2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34337.87	+54.77
		+0.16%
S&P 500	4411.55	-3.69
		-0.08%
NASDAQ	13767.74	-30.37
		-0.22%
TSX	19709.15	+54.68
		+0.28%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32585.11	+17.00
		+0.05%
HANG SENG	17426.21	+222.95
		+1.30%
SENSEX	64933.87	-325.58
		-0.50%
FTSE 100*	7425.83	+65.28
		+0.89%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.850	3.850
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.631	3.631
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6360	4.6518
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7539	4.7618

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7242	0.7249
US $	1.3808	1.3795

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4772	0.6770
US $	1.0698	0.9348

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1941.65	1957.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.26	77.17

Market Commentary:
☎️ On this day in 1878, the first telephones were installed on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, just over two years after Alexander Graham Bell’s invention changed communications forever.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.3%, or 54.68 to 19,709.15 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.6%.
Dye & Durham Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 12.5%.
Today, 96 of 227 shares rose, while 128 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 1.7%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index declined 2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9.7% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.4% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 5.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.11t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.98% compared with 15.16% in the previous session and the average of 14.44% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 31.2827| 0.8| 25/14
Information Technology | 20.4337| 1.3| 6/5
Financials | 13.4504| 0.2| 15/13
Materials | 1.8009| 0.1| 20/31
Consumer Staples | 0.1816| 0.0| 6/5
Real Estate | 0.0000| -0.5| 2/19
Communication Services | -0.1937| 0.0| 2/3
Consumer Discretionary | -0.2196| 0.0| 5/9
Health Care | -0.8746| -1.6| 0/3
Industrials | -1.6368| -0.1| 11/15
Utilities | -4.3057| -0.5| 4/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 11.6100| 1.6|n/a | 83.1
Enbridge | 8.1160| 1.2|n/a | -11.8
TD Bank | 8.0810| 0.8|n/a | -5.8
Franco-Nevada | -2.4820| -1.1|n/a | -11.8
National Bank of | | | |
Canada | -3.6360| -1.7|n/a | -4.5
Canadian Pacific | | | |
Kansas | -10.7400| -1.7|n/a | -5.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks, bonds and the dollar saw small moves on Monday, with traders awaiting the latest inflation figures, remarks from Federal Reserve speakers and results from giant retailers.
In a thin trading session, the S&P 500 hovered near its key 4,400 mark.
The gauge closed little changed after posting nine positive days out of 10 — a level of consistency seen less than 1% of the time this century and last observed in 2021.
Treasury 10-year yields dropped below 4.65%.
The dollar fell.
Oil topped $78 a barrel after notching three straight weeks of losses.
A week jam-packed with economic data will help shape the direction of markets after a rally driven by bets interest rates are peaking.
With the Fed considered by many to remain on “pause” or “skip” mode for longer, but not likely to cut rates anytime soon, markets will possibly remain “vulnerable to outbreaks of volatility,” according to John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
“This week has enough high-profile economic data to tilt the market either way,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Most eyes will be focused on the latest inflation numbers, but retail sales and retail earnings will also help set the tone.”
In the run-up to the consumer-price index report, a survey conducted by 22V Research shows the majority of investors don’t think the inflation measure is on a “Fed-friendly path.”
Among those polled, 36% are betting the market reaction will be “risk- off” while 31% see a “risk-on” reaction.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the data to show CPI slowed to an annual rate of 3.3% in October from 3.7% in September.
“The big event of this week will be tomorrow’s US CPI release,” said Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank AG. “The consensus suggests that the Fed have pretty much won the battle on inflation, and markets have certainly got very excited about a potential dovish pivot. But this is far from the first time that hopes for a dovish pivot have caused excitement, and if core is sticky around 3% then there’s little doubt that the Fed will
look to tighten policy again.”
Traders betting interest rates are peaking drove the S&P 500 to an almost two-month high last week.
In a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, the proportion of respondents who say they’re optimistic on the stock market jumped by three-quarters, while the ranks of pessimists has plunged.
From one weak to the next, the bull-bear spread rose by 41 points, an advance last seen in early 2009.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., it would actually be “healthy” if stocks took a breather. Given that many of the big-tech names have gotten “expensive” once again, a rally in a straight line could take away from some of the potential gains in December.
“We were and remain of the opinion that a bear rally would reverse at 4,435,” said JC O’Hara, chief market technician at Roth MKM. “Conversely, a sustained close above that level will indicate that the bulls oversee the market. Overall, plenty of the market’s internals have improved to neutral out of negative, but there are not many positives we can point to. Not enough good, but also not enough bad.”
Meantime, a crack in the issuance window propelled Wall Street to its busiest week of the year for follow-on share sales.
For some analysts, this shouldn’t be taken necessarily as a sign of momentum in the stock market.
Companies were exiting blackout periods after their latest quarterly earnings, meaning they were free to launch follow-on offerings.
Strategists at Morgan Stanley expect the yield on 10-year Treasuries to fall below 4% by the end of next year due to a mixture of slowing growth and inflation, alongside the return of bond buyers and rate cuts from the Fed.
Treasury bulls are still prevailing in the latest MLIV Pulse survey, but their majority is getting extremely slim.
Those expecting 10-year yields to go down over the next month represented 51% of respondents, a decline from 52% a month earlier, and the peak of 54% in July.
Overall, majority of 506 survey respondents pointed to bonds as a valuable hedge to stocks volatility, and expressed concerns about the US economy, seeing it heading toward recession.
Investors are certain of at least one interest rate cut by the year-end 2024, so any deviation from those expectations could take stocks down again, according to Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.
“Investors and presumably the Fed will be watching the inflation data very closely when it is released, however as mentioned above, retail sales may be THE release of the week,” Nolte added. “Retail sales, due on Wednesday, could shed some light on the consumer’s cheeriness heading into the holiday season.”
Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. will provide insights into how much consumers have reined in discretionary spending when they report earnings this week, including a glimpse into shopping patterns ahead of the vital holiday season.
Home Depot Inc. is also reporting this week.
Wall Street is also keeping a close eye on Washington negotiations to avert a US government shutdown at the end of this week, an event that would threaten the loss of the nation’s last top credit rating after Moody’s Investors Service signaled Friday it was inclined to issue a downgrade amid wider budget deficits and political polarization.
The US fiscal position is on an “unsustainable trajectory” due to a lack of political will to resolve the crisis at a time when debt costs are soaring, former Fed Bank of New York President Bill Dudley said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable chipmaker, is updating its H100 artificial intelligence processor, adding more capabilities to a product that has fueled its dominance in the AI computing market.
* Boeing Co. opened the Dubai Airshow with a flurry of orders led by a whopping $52 billion widebody commitment from Emirates Airline, while teasing the possibility of more as China moves closer to a deal for the 737 Max.
* Tyson Foods Inc. wrote down the value of its investments in beef as US meat producers struggle with a challenging economic backdrop, tighter cattle supplies and higher costs.
* HP Inc. was upgraded to buy from neutral at Citigroup Inc., which said a better environment for personal computer demand is set to boost free cash flow generation.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s key study backed the use of Wegovy, its blockbuster weight-loss drug, to cut heart attacks and deaths in people with obesity and a history of cardiac disease.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to become one of the biggest suppliers of lithium for electric vehicles, marking the oil giant’s first major foray outside of fossil fuels in decades.
* Google pays Apple Inc. 36% of the revenue it earns from search advertising made through the Safari browser, the main economics expert for the Alphabet Inc. unit said Monday.

Key events this week:
* Germany ZEW survey expectations, Tuesday
* UK jobless claims, Tuesday
* US CPI, Tuesday
* Home Depot earnings, Tuesday
* Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, SNB President Thomas Jordan and ECB chief economist Philip Lane speak during conference in Zurich. Tuesday-Wednesday.
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Tuesday
* Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speak during event, Tuesday.
* China retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, Wednesday
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Wednesday
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* US retail sales, business inventories, PPI, Empire manufacturing, Wednesday
* Target earnings, Wednesday
* China new home prices, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Walmart earnings, Thursday
* US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to speak at APEC leaders summit, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed vice chair for supervision Michael Barr speak, Thursday
* Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden and ECB President Christine Lagarde speak at event, Thursday
* US housing starts, Friday
* US Congress faces a midnight deadline to pass a federal spending measure, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0699
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2277
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $36,774.46
* Ether rose 1.2% to $2,083.89
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.63%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.31%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $78.54 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,946.33 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Elena Popina.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If you want to make enemies, change some things. –Woodrow Wilson, 1856-1924.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Armistice Day tomorrow.  Lest we forget…

In Flander’s Fields

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
                           -John McCrae.

November 10^th:
1871: Stanley finds Livingstone.
1940: Walt Disney begins serving as an informer for the Los Angeles office of the FBI; his job is to report back information on Hollywood subversives.
1951:L Area codes introduced.
1983: Microsoft releases Windows.
1997: WorldCom Inc. and MCI Communications Corp. agreed to a $37 billion merger.  Go to article >>

James Webb telescope finds an ‘extreme’ glow
The universe’s early galaxies are way brighter than they should be. The James Webb Space Telescope’s discovery of brightly glowing gas around 90% of primordial galaxies may explain why. Read More.

See stunning images of STEVE and auroras
Gorgeous photos show the stunning auroras and sky phenomena caused by a powerful geomagnetic storm that slammed into Earth Nov. 5. Read More.

Exoplanets at galaxy’s edge could have formed continents
Several exoplanets at the edge of our galaxy could have formed continents — and advanced life — 5 billion years earlier than Earth, new research suggests. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Srinagar, Kashmir
Schoolchildren play cricket on the outskirts of Srinagar in Indian-controlled Kashmir.  Photograph: Mukhtar Khan/AP.
One-horned rhinoceros families graze in the Pobitora wildlife sanctuary in Assam, India. Their ‘armoured’ skin may look tough, but in fact it is sensitive to sunburn and insect bites, which is why they like to cover themselves in an overcoat of mud and dust.  Photograph: Anuwar Hazarika/NurPhoto/Shutterstock.

Little tern chicks in Winterton Dunes, Norfolk, UK. The highest number of little tern chicks for 17 years has been recorded at an island in Essex, after work to raise their beach habitat above high tides. Forty-two little tern chicks fledged at Horsey Island during this year’s breeding season, the most recorded since 2006. Little terns are one of the country’s rarest seabirds and the smallest of the tern species that come to the UK from their wintering grounds in Africa to breed during the summer months.
Photograph: Kevin Simmonds/RSPB/PA.
Market Closes for November 10^th,2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34283.10	+391.16
		+1.15%
S&P 500	4415.24	+67.89
		+1.56%
NASDAQ	13798.11	+276.66
		+2.05%
TSX	19654.47	+67.06
		+0.34%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32568.11	-78.35
		-0.24%
HANG SENG	17203.26	-308.03
		-1.76%
SENSEX	64904.68	+72.48
		+0.11%
FTSE 100*	7360.55	-95.12
		-1.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.850	3.851
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.631	3.641
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6518	4.6241
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7618	4.7646

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7249	0.7242
US $	1.3795	1.3808

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4760	0.6775
US $	1.0699	0.9347

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1957.45	1959.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.17	75.74

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1494, the corporate balance sheet took root. The first edition of Luca Pacioli’s “Summa de Arithmetica, Geometria, Proportioni et Proportionalita,” printed in Venice, contained 36 chapters on accounting and popularized the concept of double-entry bookkeeping.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.3%, or 67.06 to 19,654.47 in Toronto.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.7%.
Stantec Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.6%.
Today, 125 of 227 shares rose, while 97 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 1.4%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index fell 0.9%
* The index declined 1.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.7% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 5.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 on a trailing basis and 13.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.1t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 15.16% compared with 15.15% in the previous session and the average of 14.46% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 35.1612| 1.0| 27/10
Information Technology | 31.0746| 2.0| 11/0
Financials | 16.9585| 0.3| 16/12
Industrials | 5.1233| 0.2| 19/6
Consumer Discretionary | 3.7297| 0.5| 10/4
Health Care | 0.3128| 0.6| 3/1
Consumer Staples | -0.9177| -0.1| 6/5
Communication Services | -1.5034| -0.2| 2/3
Real Estate | -2.4425| -0.5| 11/10
Utilities | -4.9394| -0.6| 5/9
Materials | -15.4921| -0.7| 15/37
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Constellation Software | 15.0100| 3.7|n/a | 46.5
Shopify | 10.3600| 1.5|n/a | 80.1
Canadian Natural Resources | 9.9220| 1.5|n/a | 18.5
Altus Group | -3.4280| -21.8|n/a | -29.2
Nutrien | -3.8690| -1.5|n/a | -25.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -19.5900| -3.0|n/a | -3.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks extended their November rally amid a surge in tech giants, a relatively calm session for bonds and no major surprises from Federal Reserve speakers.
A rebound in the S&P 500’s most-influential group sent the gauge to a seven-week high.
The US equity benchmark broke above its key 4,400 mark and the 100-day moving average — seen as bullish developments by many chartists.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed the most since May, with Microsoft Corp. hitting a record and Nvidia Corp. extending its advance into an eighth session.
“Stocks have staged a meaningful recovery,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial. “Oversold conditions, solid earnings and a sharp pullback in interest rates have been the primary drivers.”
A breakout above 4,400 would “reverse the S&P 500’s current downtrend and check the box for a higher high — raising the probability that the correction lows were set last month.”
A calmer session in the Treasury market also helped push stocks higher on Friday.
Ten-year yields were little changed, following a surge triggered by a weak 30-year bond sale and Jerome Powell’s “sterner” tone on policy.
Wall Street continued to keep an eye on the latest remarks from US officials, with Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic saying policymakers can return inflation to their goal
without the need to hike further.
His San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly said the central bank may need to hike again if progress on inflation stalls while the economy roars ahead.
Data Friday showed consumer long-term inflation expectations hit a 12-year high, while economic concerns weighed on sentiment.
Traders should expect the Fed to highlight its commitment to the 2% inflation target, but the rise in long-run inflation expectations indicate consumers are not convinced the Fed can fulfill its inflation mandate, according to Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.
Investors have softened their emotional reactions to data in recent weeks, with significantly less volatility, and we expect the same with the possibility of a government shutdown next week if a spending deal is not struck,” according to Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.
“Historically, shutdowns have been short in duration and limited in economic or market impact,” he noted.
The caution that pervaded equity markets in the past three months has now switched to “year-end greed” on expectations of a
decline in US bond yields, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
Global stocks recorded inflows of $8.8 billion in the week through Nov. 8, according to the note citing EPFR Global data.
Still, cash remains the asset class of choice, Hartnett said.
About $77.7 billion went into money market funds in the week, setting them up for record annual inflows of $1.4 trillion.
“We see upside for equity indexes, supported by earnings growth among quality companies,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We believe 2024 should be a good year for investors who put their money to work in balanced portfolios, with positive prospective returns across stocks, bonds, and alternative investments.”
Meantime, investors who piled into long dollar positions on the hopes of a hawkish Fed are rapidly selling out of one of the most-crowded trades this year, according to Bank of America strategists including Ralf Preusser and Meghan Swiber.
“USD FX over-weights have been cut back dramatically, and the change in sentiment has been the most pronounced since early 2021,” they wrote.
Elsewhere, the euro edged higher after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that keeping the deposit rate at 4% should be enough to tame inflation, but officials will consider raising borrowing costs again if they need to.
Bitcoin hovered near $37,000 — the highest price in 18 months.
Oil advanced, but still notched a third straight weekly drop on growing concerns over global demand and the unwinding of the Israel-Hamas war’s risk premium.

Corporate Highlights:
* T. Rowe Price Group Inc. said clients will likely withdraw more than $26.3 billion in the fourth quarter, extending a streak of redemptions by investors ditching actively managed mutual funds for cheaper products or cash money-market holdings.
* Trade Desk Inc., a digital advertising platform, gave a weak revenue forecast for the current quarter, sending a warning flare about the health of the ad market.
* Hydrogen producer Plug Power Inc. reported worse-than-expected third quarter earnings and issued a going-concern warning.
* Country Garden Holdings Co. posted its biggest sales drop in at least six years as customers’ concerns about its ability to complete projects threaten to exacerbate a cash crunch at the defaulted Chinese developer.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0685
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2226
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 151.53 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2% to $37,270.54
* Ether rose 1.4% to $2,088.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.62%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.34%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $77.25 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.1% to $1,936.06 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jan-Patrick Barnert, Alexandra Semenova and Natalia Kniazhevich.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
When I was thirteen, I had an inspiring teacher of religion who one day went right through the class of boys asking each one,
“What do you want to be remembered for?” I’m always asking that question:  “What do you want to be remembered for?”
It is a question that induces you to renew yourself, because it pushes you to see yourself as a different person—the person you can become.
If you are fortunate, someone with moral authority will ask you that question early enough in your life so that you will continue
to ask it as you go through life.  -Peter Drucker, 1909-2005.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

November 9^th:
1520: Height of Stockholm Bloodbath – King Christian II of Denmark, Norway and Sweden executes Swedish nobles.
1938: Kristallnacht, “Crystal Night”, pogrom against Jews in Germany.
1965: East Coast blackout.
1989: Berlin Wall opened.  On Nov. 9, 1989, East Germany lifted restrictions on emigration or travel to the West, and within hours tens of thousands of East and West Berliners swarmed across the infamous Berlin Wall for a boisterous celebration.   Go to article >>

Carl Sagan, astronomer, b. 1934.

Underwater volcanic eruption gives birth to new island
A volcanic eruption off the Japanese island of Iwo Jima on Oct. 30 led to the formation of a 330-foot-wide island just north of the explosion site.  Read More.

Tracy Chapman wins Country Music Award for ‘Fast Car’ decades after song’s debut.
Chapman’s 1988 hit “Fast Car” won song of the year at the CMAs, thanks to a cover by Luke Combs that brought the tune back into the spotlight.

Picasso masterpiece depicting his young mistress sells for $139 million.
This iconic oil painting just became the second most valuable work by Picasso ever sold at auction.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Berlin, Germany
Roses are placed in gaps in the remains of the Berlin Wall during an event marking the 34th anniversary of the fall of the wall.
Photograph: Clemens Bilan/EPA.

Agra, India
The Taj Mahal is barely visible in heavy smog as the sun rises.  Photograph: Pawan Sharma/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​London, UK
Gallery assistants study a detail of Gassed, a 1919 oil painting by the US artist John Singer Sargent, in the new Blavatnik art, film and photography galleries at the Imperial War Museum. The galleries will show about 500 works from the museum’s collection.  Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images.
Market Closes for November 9^th,2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	33891.94	-220.33
		-0.65%
S&P 500	4347.35	-35.43
		-0.81%
NASDAQ	13521.45	-128.96
		-0.94%
TSX	19587.41	+57.20
		+0.29%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32646.46	+479.98
		+1.49%
HANG SENG	17511.29	-57.17
		-0.33%
SENSEX	64832.20	-143.41
		-0.22%
FTSE 100*	7455.67	+53.95
		+0.73%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.851	3.704
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.641	3.493
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6241	4.4883
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7646	4.6251

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7242	0.7249
US $	1.3808	1.3795

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4730	0.6789
US $	1.0668	0.9374

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1959.35	1960.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	75.74	75.33

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2008, the U.S. government reached a Sunday-night deal to scrap its original $123 billion bailout of AIG. A new, $150 billion package imposed considerably less onerous terms on the insurer.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% at 19,587.41 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Suncor Energy Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.7%. Stelco Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 12.5%.
Today, 117 of 227 shares rose, while 109 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 1%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index fell 1.2%
* The index advanced 1.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 4.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.09t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 15.15% compared with 15.31% in the previous session and the average of 14.43% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 38.5026| 1.1| 26/14
Financials | 31.0801| 0.5| 22/6
Materials | 17.6300| 0.8| 25/26
Consumer Staples | 5.4494| 0.6| 9/2
Communication Services | 4.9255| 0.6| 4/1
Utilities | 4.1219| 0.5| 12/3
Consumer Discretionary | -0.5698| -0.1| 4/10
Health Care | -1.7478| -3.2| 0/4
Real Estate | -3.1454| -0.7| 1/20
Industrials | -11.0819| -0.4| 11/15
Information Technology | -27.9728| -1.8| 3/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Suncor Energy | 14.6400| 3.7|n/a | 4.5
Canadian Natural Resources | 13.2100| 2.0|n/a | 16.8
Manulife Financial | 9.5840| 3.0|n/a | 6.3
Enbridge | -2.5090| -0.4|n/a | -12.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.0060| -1.2|n/a | -0.4
Shopify | -26.4000| -3.7|n/a | 77.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields surged, while stocks finished lower as Jerome Powell threw cold water on Wall Street’s dovish wagers.
Just eight days after his speech had fueled bets the Federal Reserve was done with rate hikes, Powell said officials won’t hesitate to tighten again if needed.
While that’s essentially what several Fed speakers have been saying, it’s the part that drew investors’ attention Thursday — especially after a rally in both equities and bonds.
The S&P 500 halted what would have been its longest advance since 2004, while two-year rates topped 5%.
A weak sale of 30-year notes also weighed on sentiment, raising concern about the market’s ability to absorb new debt.
Powell’s comments also made traders price in slightly higher odds of an additional Fed hike, while paring bets on a rate cut happening before July.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, Powell’s “sterner tone” might reasonably be read as an effort to lean against further easing of financial conditions, hold rate cut expectations at bay and keep the option of hiking further if needed open.
While this ought to be risk-off at the margin, “we do not interpret this as representing a substantive shift in policy signaling as opposed to a tone-correction — and do not for instance see any serious effort to put a December hike back in play.”
His remarks were a reminder the Fed still has a “tightening bias,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The substance of these remarks was not materially different from what he said last week — “though it reads hawkish compared to market expectations, which have become quite confident that the Fed is
done,” he added.
“Markets have had a strong move but have edged closer to overbought levels,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Powell’s comments coupled with a disappointing auction is a logical excuse for the market to begin consolidating gains.”
To Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial, the main reason markets are jittery is that Powell warned investors not to be misled by the “head fakes” of a few good months of data.
Still, Roach expects yields to come down ahead of next week’s inflation data — which should provide some “salve” for the markets as the headline number will likely be soft.
Meantime, the amount of money that investors are parking at a major Fed facility dropped below $1 trillion for the first time in more than two years.
Demand for the facility has been fading this year, especially as the Treasury ramped up fresh bill issuance, offering an alternative for short-term investors.
That buying has accelerated as traders bet that the Fed is near the end of its interest-rate hiking cycle.
Mark Spitznagel, the Universal Investments founder and chief investment officer whose firm is advised by Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, said the stock market is likely to surge — then turn drastically when the Fed starts cutting interest rates.
“That’s when things are going to get really awful,” Spitznagel said in an interview this week in New York.
On the economic front, recurring applications for US unemployment benefits rose for a seventh straight week, adding to evidence that the labor market is cooling.
Last week’s soft monthly jobs report may have encouraged investors to start thinking about a less-hawkish Fed, according to Mike Loewengart at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office.
“In addition to the Fed signaling rate cuts aren’t on the horizon, today’s modest jobless claims total suggests the road to a cooler economy and lower inflation is going to be a long one,” he noted. “Add in the pressure that sizable Treasury issuance puts on rates, and it becomes clear that patience remains the primary virtue in this market.”
Credit risk will replace interest-rate risk as the market’s “big fear” next year, according to Mohamed El-Erian.
“Savings have been run down, there is a cumulative impact of high interest rates,” El-Erian said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “2024 is going to be a tougher year than 2023 was for the global economy.”
US companies have sold more than $6 billion of junk bonds this month as yields have dropped and risk assets have rallied across markets.
Month-to-date supply is the highest since early May.
Investors returned have returned to junk bonds after the Fed signaled it may be done with its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades at its last meeting.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin rose toward the highest since May 2022 — just before the Terra USD stablecoin collapsed and ignited a daisy chain of failures across the crypto asset space.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. risks having to pay a €13 billion ($14 billion) tax bill to Ireland after an adviser to the European Union’s top court said the iPhone maker’s victory in an earlier challenge should be thrown out.
* Walt Disney Co. reported better-than-expected profits and vowed to cut $2 billion in expenses as it faces pressure from activist investor Nelson Peltz.
* AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. plans to sell as much as $350 million of shares.
* Arm Holdings Plc gave a disappointing sales forecast amid a slump in smartphone sales and uncertain timing for new licensing deals.
* Lyft Inc. reported revenue and profit that beat analysts’ estimates in the third quarter, but introduced a new performance metric that compared it unfavorably to larger rival Uber Technologies Inc.
* Rogers Communications Inc. beat estimates after posting strong wireless sales during the back-to-school period and a revenue increase in its media and cable businesses.
* Manulife Financial Corp.’s earnings got a lift from its business in Asia, where insurance sales in Hong Kong to mainland Chinese visitors continue to improve after the loosening of pandemic travel restrictions.

Key events this week:
* ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0664
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2218
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 151.37 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.7% to $36,560
* Ether rose 7.9% to $2,036.35
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 14 basis points to 4.63%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.27%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $75.55 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,957.49 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Garfield Reynolds, Sidhartha Shukla, Suvashree Ghosh and Michael Mackenzie.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
A man is not old until regrets take the place of dreams. -John Barrymore, 1882-1942.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

November 8 , 1519: Cortes conquers Mexico.
November 8, 1666: The Great Fire of London comes to an end, destroying a large portion of the city and prompting major urban reforms.
1971: The album “Led Zeppelin IV,” which included the song “Stairway to Heaven,” was released.  Go to article >>

Edmund Halley, astronomer, b. 1656.
Margaret Mitchell, writer, b.1900.
Bonnie Raitt, vocalist, b. 1949.

Moon to ‘smile’ at Venus this Thursday. Here’s how to see it.:  Look up early Thursday (Nov. 9) to witness one of the most beautiful celestial sights of 2023.  Read More.

3D map plots human brain-cell ‘antennae’ in exquisite detail:  A new map of 56,000 cells in the outer layer of the human brain could inform research into a whole class of diseases. Read More.

People magazine announces its new ‘Sexiest Man Alive’
This actor is best known for his heartthrob role in a TV medical drama.

Designer apologizes for using live butterflies in ‘terrarium’ dresses Animal rights group PETA was outraged after the founder of the Japanese label Undercover featured living butterflies in his designs.

$86,000: That’s how much a salvaged dinner menu from the Titanic is expected to fetch at auction when it goes on sale this Saturday. The menu is water-stained but has lettering of one of the first meals on board just days before the ocean liner sank on April 15, 1912. Katy Perry wins war with flower mogul over a $15 million mansion

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
A walker strolls past autumn foliage during a rainy day in the city.  Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters.

Merritt Island, US
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on the Starlink 6-27 mission launches from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral space force station early on Wednesday, as seen from the island.  Photograph: Malcolm Denemark/Florida Today/AP.

​​​​​​​Shenyang, China
Winter swimming enthusiasts take selfies in Beiling Park before a dip in the lake.  Photograph: AFP/Getty Images.
Market Closes for November 8^th,2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34112.27	-40.33
		-0.12%
S&P 500	4382.78	+4.40
		+0.10%
NASDAQ	13650.41	+10.55
		+0.08%
TSX	19530.21	-45.38
		-0.23%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32236.81	+70.33
		+0.22%
HANG SENG	17568.46	-101.70
		-0.58%
SENSEX	64975.61	+33.21
		+0.05%
FTSE 100*	7401.72	-8.32
		-0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.704	3.757
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.493	3.557
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4883	4.5686
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6251	4.7338

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7249	0.7264
US $	1.3795	1.3767

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4767	0.6772
US $	1.0704	0.9342

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1960.70	1984.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	75.33	77.37

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1993: Boston Chicken went public in one of the hottest IPOs in Wall Street history. Less than five years later, it filed for bankruptcy. It was eventually sold to McDonald’s
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.2%, or 45.38 to 19,530.21 in Toronto.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.0%.
Pan American Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.9%.
Today, 139 of 227 shares fell, while 86 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 0.7%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index declined 0.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.3% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 4.5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.4% in the past 5 days and rose 1.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 on a trailing basis and 13.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.1t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 15.31% compared with 15.41% in the previous session and the average of 14.39% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -44.7804| -2.0| 12/40
Energy | -42.9638| -1.2| 5/35
Communication Services | -4.5469| -0.6| 2/3
Utilities | -1.9220| -0.2| 2/13
Health Care | -0.5193| -0.9| 0/4
Real Estate | 0.2317| 0.1| 10/10
Consumer Discretionary | 0.3916| 0.1| 7/7
Consumer Staples | 3.7435| 0.4| 8/2
Financials | 12.7359| 0.2| 15/13
Industrials | 15.6850| 0.6| 17/9
Information Technology | 16.5485| 1.0| 8/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -13.5100| -2.0|n/a | 14.5
Barrick Gold | -9.0770| -3.4|n/a | -9.7
Suncor Energy | -7.4130| -1.8|n/a | 0.8
Constellation Software | 5.7110| 1.4|n/a | 41.3
Intact Financial | 11.2900| 4.7|n/a | 5.5
Shopify | 13.7000| 1.9|n/a | 84.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw their November rally fade, with traders awaiting Jerome Powell’s take on Wall Street’s dovish narrative.
Treasuries rose in a busy week for government sales.
Amid signs of buyer exhaustion, the S&P 500 rose only 0.1%, while still notching its eighth straight up day.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — saw its longest slide since October 2015.
Ten-year yields fell below 4.5% after a $40 billion auction — despite mixed metrics, which included a slightly higher-than-anticipated rate of 4.519%: a sign that demand fell short of expectations.
Thirty-year rates hit the lowest in over a month.
Brent oil settled under $80.
Treasury sales are exerting a growing sway over stocks.
That’s the take from Citigroup Inc. data showing the S&P 500 has moved about 1% in either direction on auction days since the start of 2022, eclipsing the prior decade’s average.
Their analysis leaves traders on high alert for Thursday’s $24 billion sale of 30-year bonds.
Wall Street also kept a close eye on Fed-speak.
Speaking briefly on Wednesday, Powell didn’t comment on the outlook for rates.
He’ll have more time to express his views Thursday during a panel on policy challenges.
“It will be interesting to hear if he makes any comments about the recent move in longer-term interest rates,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “If his tone is a bit more hawkish than it was last week, it could be a catalyst for the kind of ‘breather’ in the markets we’re thinking could/should take place.”
Swap traders are pricing in almost no chance of an interest-rate increase in December, and predict the current level of the Fed’s benchmark rate — 5.25% to 5.5% — will mark the peak of the tightening cycle.
Even if central banks were of the view that rates could fall next year, it would be unrealistic to expect them to say so at this stage as it would confuse and undermine their message that rates must stay higher for longer, according to Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.
“We are continuing to see sluggish trade in equity markets on Wednesday, with investors battling hawkish commentary from central banks against downbeat economic expectations and speculation around rate cuts next year,” Erlam noted.
UBS Group AG strategists expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 around 4,600 points — implying an upside of only about 5% from current levels — as they see weaker growth hurting revenues.
Profit margins face headwinds including negative operating leverage, sticky wages, deteriorating pricing power and rising interest expense, Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey wrote.
Meantime, Hoisington Investment Management Co.’s chief economist Lacy Hunt sees the recent retreat in Treasury yields as the start of a rally that will gain steam once the US economy careens into a hard landing.
For the bond market, “the cloud is breaking because the economy is heading into a hard landing,” Hunt said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “But it’s a process that will take time. The US economy has very serious difficulties” that will “be with us for a long time in the future.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Walt Disney Co., embroiled in another fight with activist investor Nelson Peltz, posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and said it will seek an additional $2 billion in cost savings.
* Arm Holdings Plc, delivering the first earnings report since its initial public offering, gave a disappointing sales forecast as the company contends with a smartphone slump and uncertain timing for new licensing deals.
* Lyft Inc. reported third-quarter revenue that beat analysts’ estimates while giving a tepid sales outlook for the holiday period.
* Instacart reported better-than-expected earnings in the third quarter showing modest growth in online grocery orders and assuaging some investor concerns about the health of its underlying business.
* Eli Lilly & Co. won US approval for its diabetes drug to treat obesity, unlocking blockbuster sales potential in a market that’s expected to hit $100 billion by 2030.

Key events this week:
* Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday
* BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index was unchanged
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0710
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2288
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 150.99 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $35,630.73
* Ether rose 0.2% to $1,896.3
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to
4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $75.59 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1% to $1,949.67 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Elena Popina, Elizabeth Stanton, Alexandra Semenova and Denitsa Tsekova.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As always,

Carolann
With humbleness, kindness, and self-sacrifice, you will take the weapon from any enemy.
Any fire dies if there is insufficient wood. –Buddhist  wisdom.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
November 7, 1917: Bolsheviks depose Czar Nicholas II, Russian Revolution begins, leading to the rise of communism and the formation of the Soviet Union.
Russia’s Bolshevik Revolution took place as forces led by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin overthrew the provisional government of Alexander Kerensky.  Go to article >>

Joni Mitchell, b. 1943
Marie Currie, b. 1867
Albert Camus, b. 1913

More than 30,000 ancient Roman coins found underwater
Divers recently made a huge discovery off the coast of Italy that could point to the presence of a shipwreck.

Michelin-starred restaurant closes because it’s too expensive
This Michelin-starred restaurant in Northern Ireland is closing due to costs becoming too expensive — for both customers and the restaurant operators

Sphinx may have been built from a natural rock feature
It’s possible that wind erosion made a rock feature in ancient Egypt look something like a sphinx, and then the Egyptians further refined it into the iconic monument.  Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, (third left) attends the ceremony of the grand changing of the guard, performed by the 1st Infantry Regiment of the Republican Guard for the first time since 1996, in front of the Élysée Palace, reviving a tradition abandoned 27 years ago.  Photograph: Gonzalo Fuentes/EPA.

Salisbury, UK
Colourful projections on Salisbury Cathedral in Wiltshire, part of the installation Sarum Lights: Illuminating Art.  Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA.

​​​​​​​Saint-Étienne-au-Mont, France
Firefighters walk down a flooded street to evacuate people by boat after the Liane River overflowed near Boulogne-Sur-Mer.  Photograph: Pascal Rossignol/Reuters.
Market Closes for November 7^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34152.60	+56.74
		+0.17%
S&P 500	4378.38	+12.40
		+0.28%
NASDAQ	13639.86	+121.08
		+0.90%
TSX	19573.39	-170.55
		-0.86%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32271.82	-436.66
		-1.34%
HANG SENG	17670.16	-296.43
		-1.65%
SENSEX	64942.40	-16.29
		-0.03%
FTSE 100*	7410.04	-7.72
		-0.10%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.757	3.810
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.557	3.607
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5686	4.6431
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7338	4.8085

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7264	0.7300
US $	1.3767	1.3699

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4730	0.6789
US $	1.0700	0.9346

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1984.60	1994.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.37	80.82

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929: After the market slumped 6% in the morning, J.P. Morgan stepped in publicly and began to buy stocks for its own account. By day’s end, the Dow had squeezed out a small gain, but the tickertape ran two hours late, and many sell orders were unfilled when they couldn’t be matched with buy orders.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.9%, or 168.35 to 19,575.59 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.2% on Oct. 20.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.6%.
Ero Copper Corp. had the largest drop, falling 10.3%.
Today, 175 of 227 shares fell, while 50 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 1%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index was little changed in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.1% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 4.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3.7% in the past 5 days and rose 1.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.13t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 15.41% compared with 15.65% in the previous session and the average of 14.35% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -83.3648| -2.2| 6/34
Materials | -41.2383| -1.8| 7/44
Financials | -38.9126| -0.7| 6/22
Utilities | -13.2927| -1.6| 1/14
Industrials | -8.2225| -0.3| 8/17
Real Estate | -5.9628| -1.3| 2/19
Communication Services | -5.2785| -0.7| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -1.1844| -0.1| 4/7
Health Care | -0.7875| -1.4| 0/4
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4156| 0.5| 6/8
Information Technology | 26.4832| 1.7| 9/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -25.1100| -3.6|n/a | 16.8
Suncor Energy | -17.5700| -4.2|n/a | 2.7
Cenovus Energy | -10.9100| -4.5|n/a | -6.3
Constellation Software | 3.5480| 0.9|n/a | 39.3
Restaurant Brands | 5.0840| 2.5|n/a | 7.5
Shopify | 18.0500| 2.6|n/a | 80.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in big tech drove stocks to their longest winning streak in two years, with investors shrugging off the latest attempts from Federal Reserve speakers to tone down Wall Street’s dovish bid.
After a series of twists and turns in the first hour of trading, the S&P 500 rose for a seventh straight day and got closer to the key 4,400 mark.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed almost 1%, with Microsoft Corp. hitting an all-time high and cloud-software shares soaring.
Bets on a Fed pivot next year sent bond rates sharply lower, with the 10-year yield dropping below 4.6%.
Oil sank over 4% to settle near $77 a barrel.
Global equities are poised for a double-digit rally in 2024 if the Fed pivots its monetary policy and allows the economy to avoid a recession, according to HSBC Holdings Plc strategists.
The S&P 500 rose in price an average 13% in the nine months after the last rate hike in the past three decades, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA and author of “The Seven Rules of Wall Street.”
“The recent move in stocks is consistent with our view that investor pessimism had been overdone,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. “While we continue to see near-term headwinds for equities, we believe conditions are in place for positive total returns over the next six to 12 months.”
The rally in equities came on the heels of a growing list of macroeconomic concerns — with the recovery leaving some investors wondering whether the markets will continue to climb a “wall of worry,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments, says the Fed may be done with rate hikes, but she’s concerned that the relief we are seeing in the markets is only a “stop en route to recession.”
Equities advanced even after some central bank officials emphasized that bringing inflation fully down to the 2% goal is their main focus.
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said policymakers have yet to win the fight against inflation and they will consider more tightening if needed.
His Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee said officials don’t want to “pre-commit” decisions on rates.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she continues to think the central bank will need to raise interest rates higher to contain inflation — but added a surge in Treasury yields since September has led to tighter financial conditions.
A jump in US yields over recent weeks amounts to nothing less than an “earthquake” for the bond market, according Governor Christopher Waller.
“We’ll be especially attentive to policymakers’ thoughts around the recent shifts in financial conditions and what a nearly 50 basis-point drop in 10-year yields and a strong rebound in equity valuations could mean for the path of monetary policy,” said Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
Investors flocked to zero-coupon bonds during October’s Treasury rout in a bet that yields would decline from multiyear highs.
About $10.3 billion of zero-coupon Treasuries were created in October, the second-highest monthly total on record, data released by the Treasury Department late Monday show.
The $12.2 billion generated in October 2018 — also following a surge in yields — was the most on record.

Corporate Highlights:
* In a rare move, Apple Inc. hit pause on development of next year’s software updates for the iPhone, iPad, Mac and other devices so that it could root out glitches in the code.
* UBS Group AG reported stronger-than-expected client inflows in its wealth-management business, boosted by the first signs of stabilization at Credit Suisse as it carries out an expensive and complex integration of its former rival.
* D.R. Horton Inc. reported worse-than-expected quarterly orders as soaring mortgage rates hit demand.
* Datadog Inc. soared after the cloud-software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
* Uber Technologies Inc. gave a mixed picture of its business, showing a second consecutive profitable quarter and an increase in demand for rides and delivery but also slowing revenue growth.
* KKR & Co. reported growth in its insurance unit that eased a decline in private equity asset sales in the third quarter, as  alternative-asset managers rely on other businesses amid an industrywide deal slowdown.
* Carlyle Group Inc. reported a 43% drop in third-quarter distributable earnings as the firm cashed out of fewer bets amid a dealmaking slump across Wall Street.
* Elliott Investment Management has built up a stake in BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. and has been in talks with the company for months about its future, a person familiar with the matter said.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone retail sales, Wednesday
* Germany CPI, Wednesday
* BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday
* US wholesale inventories, Wednesday
* New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday
* BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges at the IMF’s annual research conference in Washington, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

 Some of the main  moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0696
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2294
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 150.44 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $35,614.85
* Ether rose 0.4% to $1,900.76
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.57%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.66%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 4.27%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.2% to $77.44 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,968.81 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani, Julia Fanzeres and Mia Gindis.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Too many people spend money they haven’t earned to buy things they don’t want  to impress people they don’t like. –Will Rogers, 1879-1935.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
November 6, 1861: James Naismith, the inventor of basketball, was born in Ontario, Canada.  Go to article >>.
November 6,1989: The Ferlin Wall, separating East and West Germany, is opened after nearly three decades of division.

Adolphe Sax, saxophone inventor, b. 1814.
Sally Field, b.1946.

This is the most ‘inconvenient convenience store’
Take a look at this ironic convenience store hanging on a steep cliff in the Chinese province of Hunan.

National Geographic announces 2024 ‘cool list’
Looking to add to your travel bucket list? These 30 places and experiences are the epitome of “cool,” according to National Geographic Traveller.

Taylor Swift’s whirlwind year continues with her 13th No. 1 album
The pop star’s “1989 (Taylor’s Version),” the 2014 hit album she re-recorded and released last month, hit No. 1 on the Billboard 200 album chart in the first week of its release.

Here’s who won the New York City Marathon on Sunday
Ethiopia’s Tamirat Tola set a course record while Kenya’s Hellen Obiri won the women’s race. (Everyone else who ran, you’re still a winner in our eyes!)

Why does time slow down in near-death experiences?
Time can seem to slow down in near-death situations, and speed up as we age. Exactly how does our brain process time? Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Northumberland, UK
The aurora borealis, also known as the northern lights, appears over Bamburgh lighthouse on the north-east coast of England.  Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA.

Siberian Omsk region, Russia
A person stands on a car while looking at auroras, caused by a coronal mass ejection on the sun, that illuminate the skies.  Photograph: Alexey Malgavko/Reuters.

​​​​​​​Puteax, France
French skyscraper climber Alain Robert, nicknamed Spiderman, climbs the Tour TotalEnergies Coupole skyscraper in Puteaux, in the financial and business district of La Defense, to call for peace in the Middle East.  Photograph: Abdul Saboor/Reuters.
Market Closes for November 6^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34095.86	+34.54
		+0.10%
S&P 500	4365.98	+7.64
		+0.18%
NASDAQ	13518.78	+40.50
		+0.30%
TSX	19743.94	-80.91
		-0.41%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32708.48	+758.59
		+2.37%
HANG SENG	17966.59	+302.47
		+1.71%
SENSEX	64958.69	+594.91
		+0.92%
FTSE 100*	7417.76	+0.03
		—

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.810	3.741
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.607	3.571
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6431	4.5724
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8085	4.7666

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7300	0.7320
US $	1.3699	1.3661

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4681	0.6812
US $	1.0717	0.9331

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1994.45	1983.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.82	80.51

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1851, Charles Henry Dow was born on his family’s farm in Sterling, Connecticut. After toiling as a reporter in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, he founded Dow, Jones & Co. in 1882, and devised the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 19,743.94 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.7% on Oct. 27 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1%.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.1%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 5.5%.
Today, 161 of 227 shares fell, while 65 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 1.9%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 1.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.3% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 5.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 4.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 on a trailing basis and 14.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.65% compared with 15.60% in the previous session and the average of 14.30% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -26.2498| -0.7| 7/33
Materials | -22.5120| -1.0| 15/36
Information Technology | -10.6844| -0.7| 5/6
Financials | -9.7008| -0.2| 10/18
Real Estate | -6.5973| -1.4| 1/20
Industrials | -5.7088| -0.2| 8/18
Communication Services | -3.8836| -0.5| 0/5
Health Care | -1.3140| -2.3| 0/4
Utilities | -1.0677| -0.1| 7/8
Consumer Discretionary | 0.0863| 0.0| 5/9
Consumer Staples | 6.6994| 0.8| 7/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | -10.9200| -4.1|n/a | -25.4
Brookfield Corp | -10.8800| -2.4|n/a | 4.2
Shopify | -10.6100| -1.5|n/a | 76.1
Dollarama | 2.6470| 1.4|n/a | 22.9
Fairfax Financial | 4.6820| 2.4|n/a | 56.3
TD Bank | 4.7460| 0.5|n/a | -7.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks struggled to gain much traction as bond yields rose, with traders betting the Federal Reserve will lean against the recent easing in financial conditions by saying it will keep its options open on policy.
After notching its best week of 2023 amid dovish Fed bets, oversold technical levels and positioning, the S&P 500 edged slightly higher on Monday.
A reversal of the moves in bonds also weighed on sentiment, with 10-year yields up eight basis points to 4.65%.
Treasuries slid amid a heavy slate of corporate debt sales and ahead of a series of auctions beginning Tuesday.
Wall Street waded through the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey — known as SLOOS — which showed tighter standards and weaker demand persist at US banks.
A raft of Fed officials — including Chair Jerome Powell — is due to speak over the next few days.
Swaps are pricing in more than 100 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2024 from an expected peak rate of 5.37%.
“There may be a reality check ahead on the Fed,” said David
Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US.
“We expect the rest of the year to be volatile, going through ‘manic-depressive swings’ based on where interest rates are headed.”
“The Fed is DONE, DONE, DONE,” wrote Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed-income at NatAlliance Securities. “June is a done deal for a cut, while the markets are building in four rate cuts for next year — expect the Fed to push back on that, if nothing else for optionality. Powell will try to claw back some of the easing of financial conditions.”
To Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, the question on whether the market momentum can be sustained comes down to upcoming economic numbers continuing to point in the same direction as last week’s jobs report, which showed the labor market slowed in October.
“If that cooling trend persists, bulls may embrace the idea that the Fed will grow less hawkish,” Larkin noted. “Regardless, the market has a tendency to pull back in the short term, at least temporarily, after exceptionally big moves like the one that unfolded last week.”
The S&P 500 currently sits at around 4,360 — and chartists are monitoring the 4,355 level, which marks a 50% retracement from the peak-to-trough decline from its July highs to October lows.
If it holds above that, the 4,400 level, where the index hovered during its mid-October highs, is the next number to watch, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.
“To reverse this downtrend, the S&P 500 still needs to break above 4,400,” said Lerner, whose firm is overweight US stocks.
The S&P 500’s best week in a year was just a bear-market rally, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
Citing a gloomy earnings outlook, weaker macro data and deteriorating analyst views, “we find it difficult to get more excited about a year-end rally,” he added.
Meantime, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic says equities will soon be unattractive to investors again as the prospect of sustained elevated interest rates and slowing growth come back in focus.
Falling bond yields and dovish central bank meetings were “knee-jerk positive for equities,” but the growth-policy tradeoff will remain challenging into year-end, he noted.
“The question we need to ask ourselves is whether the October breakdown was a ‘bear trap’,” said JC O’Hara, chief market technician at ROTH MKM. “If so, we should expect a swift move higher. If not, we should look to lighten exposure at current levels.”
To Jean Boivin at the research arm at BlackRock Inc., any year-end rally in stocks could prove short-lived because equities don’t fully reflect the outlook for rates remaining higher for longer.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries have tumbled since their 5.02% peak on Oct. 23 as traders for the $26 trillion bond market swung back to pricing the end of rate hikes.
The combination of more benign US refunding needs, weaker-than-expected jobs data and signs of the Fed turning less hawkish may have spurred widespread covering of short positions.
Leveraged funds ramped up net short Treasury futures positions to the most in data going back to 2006, according to an aggregate of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures as of Oct. 31.
The bets persisted even though the cash bonds had rallied the week before.
Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets, says the biggest issue on the minds of the equity investors her firm spoke with last week was whether 10-year Treasury yields have really peaked.
“Our view over the last month or so has been that if the surge in yields stopped soon, US equities could escape without incurring too much additional damage,” Calvasina added.  “November has typically been a good month for the S&P 500 from a seasonal perspective. December is also typically a good month, but, like October, there have been some difficult ones in recent history.”
Elsewhere, oil gained after Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed they will stick with oil supply curbs of more than 1 million barrels a day through the end of the year.
Gold declined after briefly climbing above $2,000 an ounce on Friday.

Corporate highlights:
* Tesla Inc. will produce a new model that will cost €25,000v($26,863) at its factory near Berlin, Reuters reported, as competition intensifies to produce more affordable electric vehicles for the European market.
* Tyson Foods Inc., the largest US meat producer, is recalling almost 30,000 pounds (13 metric tons) of chicken nuggets aimed at children due to possible contamination with metal pieces.
* Dish Network Corp. reported disappointing third-quarter revenue and a drop in wireless customers that was much worse than analysts predicted.
* Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s cash pile scaled a fresh record at $157.2 billion, bolstered both by elevated interest rates and a dearth of meaningful deals where billionaire investor Warren Buffett could put his money to work.
* Bumble Inc. Chief Executive Officer Whitney Wolfe Herd will step down from the company she founded nearly 10 years ago.
* Ryanair Holdings Plc will pay out a dividend of €400 million ($430 million) and plans to hand over about a quarter of annual profit to shareholders as Europe’s biggest discount airline benefits from growing traffic.

Key events this week:
* Australia rate decision, Tuesday
* China trade, forex reserves, Tuesday
* Eurozone PPI, Tuesday
* US trade, Tuesday
* UBS earnings, Tuesday
* Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and his Dallas counterpart Lorie Logan speak, Tuesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Wednesday
* Germany CPI, Wednesday
* BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday
* US wholesale inventories, Wednesday
* New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday
* BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges at the IMF’s annual research conference in Washington, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0720
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2344
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 150.00 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1% to $35,035.41
* Ether rose 1.4% to $1,895.19
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 4.65%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.74%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.38%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $80.86 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,978.26 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Farah Elbahrawy, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Ruth Carson and David Finnerty.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann

The human being is born with an incurable capacity for making the best of things. –Helen Keller, 1880-1968.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Pluto may have a ‘supervolcano’ the size of Yellowstone
Kiladze Caldera, formerly called Kiladze crater, may be a supervolcano that erupted fairly recently, spewing ice across the surface of Pluto.

Rodents show signs of imagination while playing VR games
Rats immersed in a VR world played games that could be won only by using imaginative route planning, scientists report.

Watch a huge megapod of acrobatic spinner dolphins in incredible, rare video
A megapod of dolphins with thousands of individuals has been captured on video hunting flying fish off the coast of Costa Rica.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Needle – classic view winner
Isle of Skye, Scotland. “A classic point of view, but this is an incredible place, for sure. This morning in November I decided to explore the entire area of the Quiraing and, of course. the famous needle was on my list.” Photograph: Julien Delaval/Landscape Photographer of the Year

Loch an Eilein Castle – bird’s eye
view winner Aerial view of spectacular late autumn colours and reflections of clouds around a ruined castle on the island on Loch an Eilein, on the Rothiemurchus estate in Cairngorms national park near Aviemore in the Scottish Highlands Photograph: Iain Masterton/Landscape Photographer of the Year

​​​​​​​A shy bank vole at the entrance to a pipe on the edge of a woodland pool, in Corwen, north Wales. At only 4in long, it’s one of our smallest vole species
Photograph: Richard Bowler/SWNS
Market Closes for November 3^rd, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34061.32	+222.24
		+0.66%
S&P 500	4358.34	+40.56
		+0.94%
NASDAQ	13478.29	+184.10
		+1.38%
TSX	19824.85	+198.51
		+1.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31949.89	+348.24
		+1.10%
HANG SENG	17664.12	+433.53
		+2.52%
SENSEX	64363.78	+282.88
		+0.44%
FTSE 100*	7417.73	-28.80
		-0.39%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.741	3.854
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.571	3.641
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5724	4.6590
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7666	4.8008

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7320	0.7278
US $	1.3661	1.3740

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4671	0.6816
US $	1.0737	0.9314

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1983.60	1986.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.51	82.46

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1948—the day after Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey in the U.S. presidential election—the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped by nearly 4% to 182.46 on the belief that Truman would be too soft on Communism.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 1%, or 198.51 to 19,824.85 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Sept. 20.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 179 of 227 shares rose, while 47 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
Jamieson Wellness Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.3%.
Terminal users can read more in our markets live blog.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 17 times. The next day, it advanced 11 times for an average 0.7% and declined six times for an average 0.5%
* This year, the index rose 2.3%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 5.8%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended April 10
* The index advanced 3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.9% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 6.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.11t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.60% compared with 15.29% in the previous session and the average of 14.24% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 78.6338| 1.3| 26/2
Materials | 57.5205| 2.6| 46/6
Industrials | 30.9064| 1.2| 23/3
Information Technology | 26.3516| 1.7| 10/1
Communication Services | 13.9764| 1.8| 4/1
Real Estate | 13.5935| 3.0| 21/0
Consumer Discretionary | 12.7505| 1.8| 13/1
Health Care | 1.4918| 2.7| 4/0
Consumer Staples | 0.6314| 0.1| 10/1
Utilities | -0.1243| 0.0| 11/4
Energy | -37.2227| -1.0| 11/28
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 16.5400| 2.4|n/a | 78.8
TD Bank | 15.0100| 1.5|n/a | -7.6
Brookfield Corp | 13.2200| 3.0|n/a | 6.7
Couche-Tard | -6.2260| -1.5|n/a | 29.1
Suncor Energy | -7.6870| -1.8|n/a | 7.4
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | -13.2800| -1.9|n/a | 21.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose and bond yields fell as signals of cooling in both the labor market and services reinforced the idea that the Federal Reserve is done with rate hikes — while bolstering bets on cuts as early as June.
All across Wall Street, the superlatives piled up Friday, with the S&P 500 climbing almost 1% and notching its best week of 2023.
The market’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — saw its biggest weekly plunge since December 2021.
Treasuries rallied, with two-year yields down 15 basis points to 4.84%.
The dollar slid the most since July.
Oil sank below $81 as the risk premium from the Israel-Hamas war vanished.
Fed swaps now show traders see an only 16% chance of another hike by January, and have fully priced in a cut by June — instead of July.
The US service sector expanded at the weakest pace in five months, job growth moderated and the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9%.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 150,000 last month following a downwardly revised 297,000 in September.
Wage growth slowed.
“The US economy showed its first cracks, but markets decided not to care,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management in Switzerland. “For now, all is well — and ‘bull is cool’ looks liberating for a considerable number of investors, be it on the equity or on the bonds’ side.”
To George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank, the latest trends only validate the Fed’s decision to pause this week.
“They also underline a ‘not too hot/not too cold’ backdrop — which will be welcomed news by investors who, up until recently, had been concerned about things overheating,” he added.
October’s pace of slower net hiring should give Fed officials room to maintain their pause in interest rate policy as they await further progress on inflation, said Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise, who currently believes the the Fed is done raising rates.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted Wednesday to hold interest rates at a 22-year high for a second straight meeting.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it’s an open question whether the central bank would need to hike again, and that it’s “proceeding carefully,” an assessment that’s often suggested a reluctance to raise rates in the near term.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg Television that policymakers have time to watch how the economy is evolving and be patient when it comes to interest-rate moves.
Separately, his Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari said that while a slowdown in hiring is welcome news for the central bank, he doesn’t want to overreact to just one month of data.
Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin had similar thoughts on the latest jobs figures, saying that his view on whether to hike again will depend more on inflation reports.
“The Federal Reserve could not realistically have hoped for a better jobs report today, but it will need to be one of a number of positive economic reports over the coming months before it’s ready to declare victory,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.
Helped by a growing sense that the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking regime may be over, the S&P 500 ascended rapidly this week.
And Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett says technical factors no longer stand in the way of a year-end rally in stocks.
The bank’s in-house sentiment gauge, the Bull & Bear Indicator, is flashing a contrarian buy signal for a third straight week amid poor equity market breadth — a reference to the number of stocks rising — and large outflows from high-yield and emerging-market bonds, the strategist wrote in a note.
The indicator has slid to 1.4, below the 2 level that BofA says implies a buy signal.
Meantime, BofA’s Savita Subramanian says the S&P 500 offers a better entry point now relative to its July peak — and “the probability of a positive surprise in higher beta stocks is high,” while noting that the frequency of clients asking whether they should wait to buy equities has increased.
“Extreme fear can be just as costly as greed,” she wrote.
While the stock market has enjoyed a powerful rebound this week, lurking beneath the euphoric surface are still fears about Corporate America’s profit outlook.
Among companies that have issued guidance this earnings season for next quarter and beyond, more have been providing estimates that trail analysts’ expectations.
A gauge of forward guidance that compares corporate forecasts with the Wall Street consensus has been lower only once since 2019, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
The litany of bullish calls for both the stock and bond markets that have been resounding should be an obvious signal that investor sentiment (at best) remains neutral and (at worst) will quickly revert back toward bullish extremes, according to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Such manic dispersion in outlook implies that the markets may likely need more time to find their footing, and could even see lower levels over the coming months,” he noted. “Our work points to more volatility ahead.”
Meantime, bonds are looking attractive and set to beat cash over the next year as inflation cools and central banks end policy tightening, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of asset allocation strategy.
“Bonds are starting to offer an attractive entry point,” said Christian Mueller-Glissmann. “Central banks are very close or already at the end of their rate-hiking cycle. We also recognize the pressure that comes from rising long-dated bond yields on the economy. Those factors set investors up nicely for a much better starting point for buying bonds.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc., which is trying to reverse several successive quarters of revenue decline, reported its lowest revenue from the greater China region since mid-2022.
* The US threw its support behind JetBlue Airways Corp.’s attempt to fight expulsion from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport.
* Carvana Co. beat Wall Street’s expectations in the third quarter, defying the challenges posed by rising interest rates and high inflation.
* Fortinet Inc. cut its annual guidance a second time and projecting that fourth-quarter billings and revenue will fall short of expectations.
* Coinbase Global Inc.’s revenue increased more than forecast as the largest US crypto exchange sought to weather an industrywide decline in trading activity.
* DraftKings Inc., the online sportsbook, reported third-quarter sales and monthly unique players that beat consensus estimates.
* Booking Holdings Inc. said travel demand had been diminished by the Israel-Hamas war, even while forecasting growth and reporting earnings that beat expectations.
** The company has greater exposure in Europe and the Middle East than rivals such as Expedia Group Inc.
* Block Inc., the payments giant run by Jack Dorsey, again boosted its forecast for adjusted profit for the year as customers increasingly turn to its popular Cash App.
* Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is poised to show that persistently high interest rates have helped the conglomerate more than they hindered it.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 1% to $1.0727
* The British pound rose 1.4% to $1.2374
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 149.47 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $34,536.41
* Ether rose 0.7% to $1,817.63
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.57%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.29%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $80.95 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,992.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Ye Xie, Michael Mackenzie, Christopher DeReza and Michael Tobin.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,
 
Shabnam

“The secret of getting ahead is getting started.” —Mark Twain

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
All Souls Day, Roman Catholic.
Day of the Dead, Mexico: The time to know again what the ancients knew – the spirit lives on.  Remember the good times in our lives with those who have departed and drink a full cup of gratitude for all the inspiration and love that the departed poured into our lives.  Light a candle.  Say a prayer.

November 2, 1968: The first computer mouse is demonstrated publicly by Douglas Engelbart, revolutionizing human-computer interaction.
November 2, 1947: Howard Hughes piloted his huge wooden airplane, the Spruce Goose, on its only flight, which lasted about a minute over Long Beach Harbor in California.  Go to article >>

Centuries-old skeleton with prosthetic fingers unearthed
The skeleton of a middle-aged man who died between 1450 and 1620 was found in Germany with a prosthetic hand with four metal fingers still attached to his left arm. Read More.

15 signs the sun is gearing up for its explosive peak
Experts believe the upcoming solar maximum could be more active and arrive sooner than previously expected. Here are the signs that they are right. Read More.
PHOTOS OF HE DAY

Penmarc’h, France
Sea foam blows in the streets of Penmarch in western France as Storm Ciarán hits the region.  Photograph: Fred Tanneau/AFP/Getty.

New York, US
Visitors take photographs of a painting by Pablo Picasso, Femme à la montre (1932), during a photocall at Sotheby’s auction house showcasing the highlights of the Emily Fisher Landau collection.
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty

​​​​​​​Paris, France
The DJ act Super Computer opens for Oliver Tree during his Alone in a Crowd tour at L’Olympia.  Photograph: Kristy Sparow/Getty
Market Closes for November 2^nd, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	33839.08	+564.50
		+1.70%
S&P 500	4317.78	+79.92
		+1.89%
NASDAQ	13294.19	+232.72
		+1.78%
TSX	19626.34	+547.34
		+2.87%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31949.89	+348.24
		+1.10%
HANG SENG	17230.59	+128.81
		+0.75%
SENSEX	64080.90	+489.57
		+0.77%
FTSE 100*	7446.53	+104.10
		+1.42%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.854	3.921
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.641	3.743
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6590	4.7341
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8008	4.9273

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7278	0.7218
US $	1.3740	1.3854

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4591	0.6854
US $	1.0619	0.9417

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1986.35	1996.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.46	80.44

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1920, Pittsburgh’s Westinghouse Electric and Manufacturing Company made what is widely recognised as the first commercial radio broadcast. Under the call sign KDKA, Leo Rosenberg announced live returns of the Harding-Cox presidential election.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 2.9%, or 547.34 to 19,626.34 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 3.3% on Nov. 10, 2022.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 187 of 227 shares rose, while 37 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 21.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain once
* This year, the index rose 1.2%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 4.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended April 10
* The index advanced 1.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.8% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 on a trailing basis and 13.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.02t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.29% compared with 13.81% in the previous session and the average of 14.19% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 164.8049| 2.9| 25/3
Information Technology | 134.7526| 9.6| 11/0
Energy | 91.4121| 2.5| 32/7
Industrials | 33.5110| 1.3| 21/5
Utilities | 33.1379| 4.3| 15/0
Communication Services | 24.3066| 3.3| 5/0
Materials | 19.3259| 0.9| 33/17
Consumer Staples | 17.1615| 2.0| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 15.7050| 2.2| 12/2
Real Estate | 11.5010| 2.6| 19/2
Health Care | 1.7148| 3.1| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 120.5000| 21.3|n/a | 74.6
RBC | 34.3400| 3.2|n/a | -9.8
TD Bank | 29.7600| 3.0|n/a | -9.0
Barrick Gold | -1.9630| -0.7|n/a | -4.9
First Majestic | -2.2250| -15.4|n/a | -45.9
Colliers International | -2.6960| -7.7|n/a | -4.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street pushed the stock market higher a day after the Federal Reserve hinted it may be done with interest-rate hikes, with traders now eagerly awaiting Friday’s jobs report.
In a rally also fueled by oversold conditions and positioning, the S&P 500 added almost 2% — its best session since April.
The market’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — fell below 16 and breached a key technical level.
Tesla Inc. led gains in mega-caps.
Apple Inc. rose ahead of its results.
Long-term Treasuries outperformed, with 30-year yields down 13 basis points to 4.8%.
The dollar dropped.
The pound gained as the Bank of England pushed back on talk of rate cuts.
Oil topped $82.
In the run-up to the jobs data, a report showed US labor productivity advanced by the most in three years, helping to alleviate the inflationary impact of recent wage growth.
Continuing jobless claims rose for a sixth straight week, indicating those losing their jobs are starting to have more trouble finding new ones.
Economists are forecasting non-farm payrolls rose by 180,000 in October following September’s gain of 336,000.
“Friday payrolls will be critical,” said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. “If we get a weak report, rates will continue their move lower, but financial conditions may not loosen further since a recession may look more imminent. A strong report and then the market will watch the Fed nervously to see if they will react.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 52% of investors expect Friday’s data to be risk-on — and only 14% think it will be risk-off.
This is the most optimistic investors have been since the firm started the surveys a year ago.
In addition, 41% of those polled think average hourly earnings will be the most-important indicator, followed by payrolls.
While the Federal Open Market Committee kept open the prospect of additional policy action on strong economic growth, Jerome Powell speculated that Treasury yields at lofty levels could instead help the central bank keep monetary conditions restrictive to wring out the inflationary excesses of this business cycle.
“From our vantage point, the FOMC signaled the conclusion of the rate hike cycle,” said Spencer Hakimian at Tolou Capital Management.
Combined with the better-than-expected data in the Treasury quarterly refunding announcement (QRA), “and we believe tailwinds exist across the curve in Treasuries going into year-end.”
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, market players are front-running the possibility of rate cuts in the near future amid bets the Fed is done tightening — even though Powell said easing is not currently being discussed.
In fact, a growing chorus of investors is cautioning against prematurely declaring that the US bond market’s brutal rout is finally over for good.
Hedge fund K2 Asset Management is predicting that benchmark 10-year Treasury yields will rise back to 5% — from around 4.6% — while Franklin Templeton says they could peak at 5.25% — a level last seen in 2007.
At Citadel Securities, global head of rates trading Michael de Pass says the Treasury market remains “very much dependent on the data,” leaving the risk that the market’s euphoric mood could change.
And Barclays Plc co-head of global markets Stephen Dainton said it is “very unlikely” the Fed is done tightening policy.
“We got a hold from the Fed that was mostly hawkish — but just dovish enough to keep a lid on future tightening expectations,” said Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Whatever the market thinks the Fed thinks, it will still come down to the data and that makes Friday’s jobs data all the more important. We continue to believe that the US economy remains robust enough to require  further tightening.”
Another potential big driver of trading will be Apple’s earnings after the closing bell.
Hopes that Apple’s results will help salvage a mixed earnings season for mega-cap tech stocks are being clouded by one issue in particular: China.
Risks related to the country have mounted for the heavily-exposed iPhone maker since Apple last reported, adding to Wall Street’s caution ahead of its results — along with tepid growth trends, a high multiple, and the rise in interest rates.
Investors have punished stocks where earnings don’t live up to expectations.
Options positioning in the stock has turned bearish ahead of the results, according to Citigroup.

Corporate Highlights:
* Qualcomm Inc. jumped after the largest seller of smartphone chips gave a bullish revenue forecast.
* Starbucks Corp.’s revenue beat expectations in the latest sign that diners aren’t quitting their lattes even in tough economic conditions.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. surged after the company reported the fourth consecutive quarter of profitability and highest earnings since its founding 20 years ago.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. climbed after the payments giant boosted its profit outlook and reported increased spending on its platforms.
* ConocoPhillips jumped after the oil explorer boosted investor payouts and raised its production outlook.
* Eli Lilly & Co. beat Wall Street’s estimates for third-quarter revenue as its star diabetes drug Mounjaro outran expectations.
* Moderna Inc. slid after it said it expected revenue to fall sharply next year to well below what analysts were expecting.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. tumbled after the fitness company said it expects revenue to fall even more steeply than feared this quarter.
* Beyond Meat Inc. cut its revenue forecast for the second time in three months amid sagging demand for its plant-based proteins.
* Airbnb Inc. gave a disappointing outlook for the fourth quarter, citing “greater volatility” in the economic environment that it expects will slow demand for travel.
* Six Flags Entertainment Corp. agreed to merge with Cedar Fair Entertainment Co. in an all-stock deal that will value the combined businesses at about $8 billion including debt and will create one of the biggest theme park operators in the Americas.

Key events this week:
* China Caixin services PMI, Friday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Canada employment report, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0623
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2209
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 150.46 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $35,021.64
* Ether fell 2.3% to $1,812.73
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.67%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 4.38%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $82.37 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,985.31 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy November.  All Saints Day.
Scorpio: October 23-November 21.
Sagittarius: November 22-December 21.
November birthstone: Topaz
November flower: Chrysanthemum.

NOVEMBER:
“The last red berries shrivel.  Night comes early, dawn late.  The sun is weaker.  Ice is on the birdbath, frost on the car.  Perhaps it is already snowing.  Certainly, it’s damp and raw.  Rain is forecast.  Now is the time to act, to begin.  As Ishmael says in Moby Dick, ‘whenever it is a damp drizzly November in my soul…I account it high time to get to sea as soon as I can’.  He means it’s time for human deeds.  Without our contribution, nothing will happen, life will have no meaning.  Without our experience, the world cannot evolve, life on earth cannot become more abundant.  ‘We have it in our power to begin the world over again,’ said Tom Paine.  ‘Start by doing what’s necessary; then do what’s possible; and suddenly you are doing the impossible,” said St Francis of Assisi.  All it takes is patience, grace, intention, and the right moment.” -by Cosmo Doogood.

November 1, 1993: The Maastricht Treaty, which introduced the Euro as a common currency for European Union countries, comes into effect.
On Nov. 1, 1952, the United States exploded the first hydrogen bomb, in a test at Eniwetok in the Marshall Islands.  Go to article >>

The best celebrity Halloween costumes of 2023
With a team of professional makeup artists and hair stylists at their fingertips, these celebrities debuted the most elaborate costumes of the year.

Saudi Arabia set to host 2034 World Cup as Australia withdraws interest
Saudi Arabia is set to host the 2034 men’s FIFA World Cup after Australia withdrew its interest hours before the bidding deadline on Tuesday.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Artvin, Turkey
Autumn colours around Rutav Lake in the village of Yukarı Koyunlu.  Photograph: Ali Fatih Akcay/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Tenterfield, Australia
Bushfires seen in the distance surrounding the northern New South Wales town of Tenterfield.  Photograph: Reuters.

London, UK
A giant inflatable octopus on the bank of the River Thames next to the Houses of Parliament, during action by Greenpeace highlighting the need to protect oceans.
Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for November 1^st, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	33274.58	+221.71
		+0.67%
S&P 500	4237.86	+44.06
		+1.05%
NASDAQ	13061.47	+210.23
		+1.64%
TSX	19079.00	+205.53
		+1.09%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31601.65	+742.80
		+2.41%
HANG SENG	17101.78	-10.70
		-0.06%
SENSEX	63591.33	-283.60
		-0.44%
FTSE 100*	7342.43	+20.71
		+0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.921	4.064
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.743	3.860
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.7341	4.9307
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9273	5.0931

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7218	0.7207
US $	1.3854	1.3875

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4642	0.6829
US $	1.0570	0.9461

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1996.90	1997.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.44	81.02

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1978: Total daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 50 million for the first time, with 50.45 million shares changing hands.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 1.1%, or 205.53 to 19,079.00 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Oct. 10.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 177 of 227 shares rose, while 46 fell.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.8%.
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP had the largest increase, rising 10.8%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 12 times. The next day, it advanced eight times for an average 0.4% and declined four times for an average 0.6%
* This year, the index fell 1.6%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* The index declined 2.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 2.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and fell 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 on a trailing basis and 13.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.99t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.81% compared with 13.24% in the previous session and the average of 14.14% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 54.0023| 1.0| 25/3
Energy | 37.2276| 1.0| 32/6
Utilities | 27.5954| 3.7| 15/0
Information Technology | 26.8785| 2.0| 7/4
Industrials | 22.3679| 0.9| 22/4
Communication Services | 13.8526| 1.9| 5/0
Consumer Staples | 11.5810| 1.4| 10/1
Real Estate | 10.3164| 2.4| 21/0
Consumer Discretionary | 1.7215| 0.2| 8/6
Health Care | 0.8272| 1.5| 3/1
Materials | -0.8262| 0.0| 29/21
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 19.6300| 4.8|n/a | -0.6
Shopify | 18.1300| 3.3|n/a | 43.9
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.6000| 1.9|n/a | 19.3
Franco-Nevada | -3.8780| -1.7|n/a | -10.2
SSR Mining | -4.1310| -15.1|n/a | -23.1
First Quantum Minerals | -5.0610| -8.0|n/a | -47.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Investors who were braced for a “hawkish hold” from Jerome Powell Wednesday got something altogether different from the Federal Reserve chairman — hope that that the rate-hike cycle is over.
The result was sizable rallies in both stocks and bonds.
Traders got a dose of encouragement after Powell signaled the current tightening cycle has come far and noted the Fed is “proceeding carefully.”
The S&P 500 climbed over 1%.
Ten-year US rates dropped 17 basis points to 4.76%, with the move initially triggered by the Treasury’s plans to slow the pace of increase in its long-term debt sales.
Swaps for January show a peak rate of 5.41% — equating to only eight basis points of additional hikes.
“The Fed tried to deliver a hawkish hold, but Wall Street is not believing additional tightening will happen this cycle,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda. “Fed Chair Powell tried to talk a hawkish game, but he wasn’t convincing enough.”
Another relevant aspect was that the Fed signaled that a run-up in long-term Treasury yields reduces the impetus to raise interest rates again.
The perception is —  the massive increase in longer-term rates has effectively done some of the work the Fed has been trying to accomplish in its quest to tighten conditions and bring inflation back to the 2% target.
“The Fed didn’t hike today, mainly because the bond market hiked for them,” Callie Cox at eToro. “This should be a relief for investors. The Fed is paying attention to the big picture, and they know that blindly hiking on top of substantially tight conditions could tip the economy over the edge.”
The US central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates at a 22-year high for a second straight meeting on Wednesday.
It said in a post-meeting statement that “tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation,” adding the word “financial” to
language that previously referred only to credit conditions.
To Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pacific Investment Management Co., the central bank is balancing the resilient economic data in recent months against tighter financial conditions.
“Based on the November FOMC meeting, tighter financial conditions seem to be winning out for Fed officials for now,” she noted.

More Comments:

* Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate:
“The Federal Reserve held off on another interest rate hike, but is keeping their options open to raise rates at an upcoming meeting should conditions warrant. The rise in long-term interest rates in recent months has had the same desired effect of monetary tightening, effectively doing some of the Fed’s dirty work for them.”

* Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report:
“The FOMC statement added one tweak to the statement with everything else pretty much identical to the September one but the messaging was that the rise in long-end rates is another form of monetary tightening as it should be treated as such.  What else would you call a 100 bps rise in the average 30-year mortgage rate since their last rate hike in July coincident with the jump in long rates?”

* Diane C Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, on Bloomberg TV:
“The strength of the economy justifies higher rates, and it also brings into question, how much restriction we have. And if financial conditions were to unwind, and the rout in the bond market were to unwind, that takes away the restriction that’s out there, and all of the sudden, the Fed has to get back in the game. So that optionality of every meeting being live?  Critical.”
Meantime, the Treasury said it will sell $112 billion of longer-term securities at its quarterly refunding auctions next week, which span 3-, 10- and 30-year notes.
Many major dealers had predicted $114 billion.
Secretary Janet Yellen has rejected the idea that increased government borrowing caused the recent surge in bond yields, but several market participants have cited fiscal concerns.
“Our takeaway from the new information was that the reintroduction of term premium into the long-end of the curve was enough to give Yellen pause in being too aggressive with long-end issuance increases,” said Ben Jeffery, US rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “While the Treasury said it anticipates one more quarter of larger auctions, we suspect the risk is tilted toward a more measured approach going forward.”
Oversold technicals are making stocks prone to relief rallies, but the direction of travel is likely to be tied to the Fed’s policy — especially after very strong tightening in financial conditions in the past six weeks — which took the Goldman Sachs US Financial Conditions Index to its highest in a year.
“We estimate that the recent tightening has roughly the same impact on the economy as four 25 bp hikes,” say Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius. “The rise in interest rates has been driven by a reassessment of the neutral rate and an increase in the term premium, and for that reason looks unlikely to reverse anytime soon.”
While October is typically the market’s most volatile month and known for crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008, November has traditionally been the second-strongest month for stocks behind April.
November traditionally kicks off the “best six months” of the year for the S&P 500, typically because stock buying by companies and pension plans tend to pick up starting on Nov. 1, per the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
The tax-loss harvesting deadline for mutual funds is usually Oct. 31, compared with the end of the year for individual taxpayers.
A contrarian indicator from Bank of America Corp. that compiles Wall Street strategists’ recommended allocation to stocks is getting closer to flashing “buy.”
The gauge’s current level implies a 16% price return for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, strategists led by Savita Subramanian said Wednesday in a note to clients.
“Sentiment and positioning are at extremes, while financial conditions are at the tightest level in a year,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “There are similarities to the extreme pessimism from a year ago that led to a 20% rally in equities, though the fundamental backdrop will need to remain healthy to support such a move.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. climbed after saying a new AI chip will generate $2 billion in sales next year, fueling optimism that demand for the component will offset a slump in orders for video-game equipment.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. jumped as investors looked past a private equity deal slowdown and cheered momentum in the firm’s massive credit business.
* Estée Lauder Cos.’ already-battered shares plummeted still more after the beauty giant slashed its full-year outlook on troubles in China and the Middle East.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. is searching for a potential partner to grow its private credit business and accelerate its push into one of the hottest areas in leveraged finance, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* WeWork Inc. is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as next week, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Netflix Inc.’s advertising-supported plan has reached 15 million global customers one year after its launch, the company said in a blog post Wednesday.
* CVS Health Corp. fell as its management told investors to expect adjusted 2024 profit toward the low end of the company’s forecast.
* Humana Inc. sank after executives said the initial outlook for 2024 profit growth would be at the low end of its forecast.
Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* Bank of England interest rate decision. Governor Andrew Bailey holds news conference, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* China Caixin services PMI, Friday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Canada employment report, Friday
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo and Michael Mackenzie.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
When we are born we cry that we are come to this great stage of fools. –William Shakespeare, 1564-1616, King Lear.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com