Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday.
St. James the Great Day.
Pilgrimage of St. Anne d’Auray, France.

July 25, 1893: The Panic of 1893 reached its low point, with nearly one-quarter of the nation’s railroads heading into bankruptcy and the directors of the NYSE nearly closing down the exchange.
July 25, 1909: Louis Blériot makes the first aeroplane flight across the English Channel, proving practical aviation is possible.
July 25, 1978:The first baby conceived by in-vitro fertilization was born in Oldham, England.  Go to article  

July 25, 1969: The Seattle Pop Festival is held at Woodinville’s Gold Creek Park. Over three days, 25 musicians and groups perform, including Led Zeppelin, Chuck Berry, The Byrds, Chicago Transit Authority, Bo Diddley, the Doors, Guess Who, Santana, Ike & Tina Turner and the Youngbloods. More than 50,000 fans attend, with tickets $6 a day or $15 for three days. Neighbors complain of traffic and the “hippie atmosphere,” but fans are orderly with a few exceptions. (The next month, Woodstock Festival draws 500,000 music fans to Bethel, N.Y.) (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

Iman, model/actress, b. 1955.

Earth is starting to spin faster — and scientists are considering doing something unprecedented
Two days this summer have been unusually short, with the shortest expected on Aug. 5, leading global timekeepers to consider adding a negative leap second. Read More.

3,800-year-old burial of tall warrior buried with 4-pronged spearhead unearthed in Azerbaijan
The burial holds a Bronze Age man who stood more than 6 feet, 6 inches tall and may have been a military leader. Read More.

3I/ATLAS is 7 miles wide — the largest interstellar object ever seen — new photos from Vera C. Rubin Observatory reveal
Detailed photos from the newly operational Vera C. Rubin Observatory have revealed that the recently discovered interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is roughly 7 miles wide, making it the largest of its kind ever seen.

Ancient whale ‘graveyard’ discovered under melting Russian glacier
An Arctic expedition found a collection of ancient whale remains where a rapidly retreating glacier once lay.

Artist cancels major Smithsonian exhibition
Amy Sherald, who gained national fame for her official portrait of former first lady Michelle Obama in 2018, was told that the museum had “concerns” about one of her paintings.

New Jersey Little Leaguer cleared to play again
The 12-year-old baseball player faced suspension for what he did last week after hitting a game-winning home run.

Halloween is going to be pricier this year
High cocoa costs are prompting a major confectionery company to hike prices for chocolate candy.

David Beckham documents hilarious haircut mishap
“What have you done?” Victoria Beckham, the soccer star’s wife, asked when she saw it

RIP: Legendary jazz musician Chuck Mangione dies
The noted flugelhorn player, trumpeter and composer became known for his signature tune “Feels So Good,” which spent 25 weeks on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, peaking at #4 in 1978. Throughout his six-decade career in music, Mangione received 14 Grammy nominations and won the award twice. He also made recurring appearances on the Fox animated series “King of the Hill,” where he played a tongue-in-cheek version of himself.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dover, UK
Holidaymakers and lorry drivers come to a standstill as traffic builds at the border
Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

San Diego, US
A man wades past kelp as he goes for a swim in the Pacific Ocean at La Jolla Shores in California
Photograph: Gregory Bull/AP

​​​​​​​Neuf-Brisach, France
An aerial view of an octagonal fortress that forms one of the most extraordinary cities in the world. Constructed in the 17th-century by Sébastien Le Prestre de Vauban, a military architect serving King Louis XIV, the city in Alsace features evenly spaced bastions, perpendicular streets and star-shaped fortifications
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 25^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44901.92	+208.01
		+0.47%
S&P 500	6388.64	+25.29
		+0.40%
NASDAQ	21108.32	+50.36
		+0.24%
TSX	27494.35	+122.09
		+0.45%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41456.23	-370.11
		-0.88%
HANG SENG	25388.35	-278.83
		-1.09%
SENSEX	81463.09	-721.08
		-0.88%
FTSE 100*	9120.31	-18.06
		-0.20%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.526	3.548
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.840	3.857
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3878	4.3957
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9296	4.9347

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7298	0.7328
US $	1.3702	1.3646

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6095	0.6213
US $	1.1746	0.8513

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3365.85	3413.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.11	67.23

Market Commentary:
And thus, without a wing, or service of a keel. –Emily Dickinson, 1830-1886.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 27,494.35 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.9% on July 17 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.5%.
Tfi International Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.5%.
Today, 111 of 212 shares rose, while 97 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.11% compared with 6.24% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 53.2918| 2.0| 9/1
Financials | 48.3263| 0.5| 19/6
Industrials | 23.9996| 0.7| 24/5
Materials | 11.4083| 0.3| 21/26
Real Estate | 3.4190| 0.7| 10/8
Consumer Discretionary | 1.1541| 0.1| 5/4
Utilities | 0.9006| 0.1| 5/8
Communication Services | -0.3184| 0.0| 3/2
Health Care | -0.4823| -0.7| 1/2
Consumer Staples | -2.0356| -0.2| 5/5
Energy | -17.5958| -0.4| 9/30
Shopify | 34.9200| 2.5| -38.4| 11.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 10.1500| 1.5| 7.0| 1.3
RBC | 8.9010| 0.5| 24.9| 4.4
Couche-Tard | -2.9900| -0.7| -34.6| -6.8
Enbridge | -5.4880| -0.6| 37.0| 1.1
Teck Resources | -8.3630| -5.7| 107.6| -22.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange raced to fresh record high on Friday even as U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration has not been focused on reaching a trade deal with Canada, with a deadline for an agreement looming, while Rosenberg Research raised concern around overbought market sentiment.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 122.1 points to a record finish of 27,494.25 despite weaker commodity prices, usually a bearish note for the resources-heavy index.
Despite the gains, sectors were mixed.
The biggest gainer was Info Tech, up 1.8%.
The Battery Metals Index was down 1.7% and Base Metals down 1%.
Just a week out from an August 1 trade-agreement deadline, President Trump told reporters Friday morning “We don’t have a deal with Canada”.
In contrast, he was cited in a report from Canada’s CTV News saying he is likely to reach a deal with the European Union and that he had solidified the confines of an accord with China.
“Aug. 1 is going to come, and we will have most of our deals finished, if not all.  We haven’t really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where they’ll just pay tariffs. It’s not really a negotiation,” Trump said.
The CTV report noted Trump has promised the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods crossing the border, and those fees could go even higher if Canada further retaliates.
However, it also noted, they’re limited to the minority of goods not covered under the two countries’ existing free trade deal, which Trump signed in his first term and vowed to renegotiate next year.
Canada is also bearing the weight of Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, and will be affected by copper duties that are also expected to kick in on Aug. 1, the CTV report added.
Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Market, in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note said the 15% base tariff agreed with Japan “likely sets an important benchmark for other major trading partners, and drums home the point that meaningful tariffs are here to stay.”
Porter noted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney more or less echoed that sentiment by cautioning any deal with the United States may well include some semi-permanent tariffs.
At the same time, Porter also noted, Carney warned the Aug.1 deadline may not hold, and that Canada would not be rushed into a bad deal, while Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said “a lot of work” still needs to be done.
President Trump, Porter noted, showed just how much “work” by suggesting on Friday that, for Canada, it may just be a tariff, not a negotiation.
“While Canada faces the prospect of a 10 ppt hike in its tariff to 35%, that’s only on the narrow slice of non-USMCA compliant goods, so the bigger issue is the sectoral hits on autos and metals,” Porter said.
Elsewhere, Rosenberg Research in its latest Technical Analysis said a composite of four popular sentiment survey suggests market sentiment is “only now edging into overbought, excessive bullishness, territory”.
It cited the S&P 500 medium term Coppock Curve showing that sentiment momentum has broken out to levels not seen since early 2023.
According to the research, “this breakout implies that sentiment will move higher, and become more overbought, in the weeks immediately ahead”.
Rosenberg Research said if it does, but fails to challenge its 2024 highs, that could create a divergence relative to, at least, the S&P 500’s post-April uptrend and perhaps its longer-term trend. “In turn,” it added, “such divergence could be a factor, along with momentum and seasonality, that adversely affects price.”
Of commodities, gold futures fell for a third day, continuing a retreat from Tuesday’s record high as the dollar strengthens and traders take profits.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $38.20 to US$3,392.90 per ounce.
Tuesday, the metal posted a record high of US$3,501.80.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell Friday, giving up early gains that came on optimism U.S. tariff battles are calming, as reports said the Trump Administration will allow higher exports from Venezuela into an already over-supplied market.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed down $0.87 to settle at US$65.16 per barrel.
September Brent oil was last seen down $0.78 to US$68.40.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street ended the week on a positive note, with stocks hitting fresh all-time highs amid solid earnings and hopes for US trade deals.
After an uneventful meeting between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, the Treasury market barely budged.
The dollar climbed.
In the run-up to the busiest week for corporate results, the S&P 500 rose for a fifth straight day, approaching 6,400.
While the rally has stoked concerns about inflated prices amid a rush to the riskiest corners and a revival of the meme-stock mania, many traders find it hard to bet against the trend.
A closely watched gauge of equity volatility – the VIX – closed below 15.
“If you are a structurally bearish investor, the recent few weeks must have felt like a century,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“Not only are most equity indices advancing in what seems like an endless rally, but their valuations now globally surpass those at the start of the year.”
Progress in trade deals, positive economic data and corporate resilience have offset worries that stocks are overheating.
More than 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s on track for the highest share of beats since 2021.
“The pace of earnings so far this month has been positive, economic data has been hanging in there, and we’re even starting to get some sense of clarity on tariffs,” said Bespoke Investment Group. “You can’t fault investors for being optimistic.”
Next week will also bring the latest jobs report, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and a deadline for US trade deals.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will travel to Scotland this weekend to meet with Trump, as the two sides aim to conclude a trade deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
“The market continues its steady climb as many key investor concerns have failed to materialize,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“While institutional investors who were short on an absolute or relative basis have largely capitulated, positioning still shows little sign of excess.”
This suggests that the market momentum has room to build if macro conditions improve or even stabilize, Hackett noted.
“It’s been a very, very active year for retail and just in the past month, I’d say, has been the craziest month that we’ve seen, so it is the return of meme stock rallying, sharp increases in really small companies picked up by Reddit channels and things like that,” said Sam Nofzinger, Public’s general manager of brokerage.
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk said its clients are growing “more comfortable” betting against shares of unprofitable technology companies, following a resurgence of meme-stock mania that has sparked wild rallies in a cohort of smaller names.
“With the market pushing to new highs and volatility falling to its lowest levels since February, two of the major challenges facing investors are complacency and the urge to chase the market,” said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
The risk of a bubble in stock markets is rising as monetary policy loosens alongside an easing in financial regulation, says Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
From a technical standpoint, Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler keeps his bullish view, citing factors such as improving market breadth and many of the popular averages reaching new highs.
Monday kicks off the earnings season’s busiest week, with over 40% of S&P 500 companies reporting results.
Among the highlights will be several mega caps including Apple Inc. Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc.
“We are seeing some divergence in earnings, but for the most part companies are beating expectations and keeping the stock rally going,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“As long as trade policy and tariff headwinds are minor, the market can keep moving higher.”
The world’s investors are enjoying a confidence boost after months of uncertainty as Trump finally started signing trade deals.
Earlier this year, rapidly-shifting tariff policies sent global markets spiraling.
But risk assets have rebounded as investors saw signs of progress in negotiations.
“We’ve already seen a deal with Japan. A deal with the EU is necessary for the equity rally to continue, in our view, but would not be surprised,” said Paul Christopher at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.  “The only surprise would be no deal by Aug. 1.”
To Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management, trade negotiations will ultimately lead to moderate policy.
“We would expect a tariff-led economic slowdown to be mild and short-lived, rather than recessionary,” he said.
Trump also noted he would never back a weak dollar while also touting the economic benefits a low currency would bring, particularly for the country’s manufacturing sector.
While the greenback wrapped out its worst week in July, it’s set for its best month in 2025.
The Fed released a statement Friday thanking Trump and Republican lawmakers for visiting the central bank’s renovation project on Thursday.
During his visit, Trump offered little criticism of the project but urged Fed Chair Powell several times to lower interest rates.
Trump says he had a good meeting with Powell, leading the US president to believe the Fed might cut borrowing costs.
At Pepperstone, Quasar Elizundia says policymakers are expected to hold steady while signaling sensitivity to global trade conditions and softening investment trends.
“The case for leaving policy on hold has been made by several Fed speakers: inflation remains above target, inflation risks still pervade, and the labor market is near full employment,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The Fed “should cut rates next week, but we don’t think it will,” said FHN Financial’s Chris Low and his colleagues.
“Instead, watch for Chair Powell to use the press conference to prep markets for a cut in September.”
“While Chair Powell will probably keep his options open for September, we think he will emphasize that recent US inflation and employment data make a case for leaving rates unchanged,” said James Egelhof and Guneet Dhingra at BNP Paribas.
“As we have since December 2024, we expect the policy hold to run past year end.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Intel Corp. sank as Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan sparked concerns that he was more focused on cost cutting than restoring the chipmaker’s technological edge.
* Microsoft Corp. is investigating whether a leak from its early alert system for cybersecurity companies allowed Chinese hackers to exploit flaws in its SharePoint service before they were patched, according to people familiar with the matter.
* American Airlines Group Inc. finally has taken possession of its first long-range Airbus SE A321XLR aircraft, but the plane will remain in Europe because of a supply chain issue that’s caused a shortage of seats.
* Paramount Global’s merger with Skydance Media was approved by the US Federal Communications Commission.
* Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc. agreed to acquire Synovus Financial Corp. in an all-stock transaction valued at $8.6 billion, combining two sizable players in the US Southeastern market ahead of a potential wave of banking M&A.
* Charter Communications Inc. reported it lost more internet customers than expected during the second quarter amid increased pressure from mobile companies’ 5G and fiber home internet offerings.
* Fuzzy Ugg boots and chunky Hoka running shoes saw big sales gains last quarter, bolstering financial results for parent company Deckers Outdoor Corp.
* Centene Corp. issued fresh annual guidance and laid out a plan to address problems in its Affordable Care Act business, offering investors a ray of hope in a year when insurers across the industry have struggled to cope with rising costs and changing government policies.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. shares plunged after European regulators rejected its gene therapy Elevidys, intensifying scrutiny on the drugmaker after it was pressured to halt shipments of its treatment in the US.
* Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s chief medical officer is stepping down from his role after six years at the company, a surprise moves as the drugmaker races to find its next hit to reverse its declining fortunes.
* Eli Lilly & Co. won the backing of European Union regulators for its Alzheimer’s disease drug Kisunla in a specific group of patients, potentially paving the way for it to become the second drug in the region to slow the most common cause of dementia in the elderly.
* Newmont Corp. has made progress getting its costs under control, helping the world’s top gold miner beat expectations on earnings at a time when a rally for the precious metal is underpinning the industry.
* Phillips 66 is maximizing diesel production to take advantage of strong demand and would consider investing in projects that give its refineries greater flexibility to tweak fuel output to match changing consumption patterns.
* Lyft Inc. is partnering with Benteler Group, an Austria-based manufacturer, to deploy autonomous shuttles in the US in late 2026, trying to catch up with rival Uber Technologies Inc. in offering driverless rides.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1743
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3436
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $116,755.58
* Ether fell 2.5% to $3,644.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $65.05 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,337.87 an ounce

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Action may not always bring happiness; but there is no happiness without action. -Benjamin Disraeli, 1804-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  The astronomical new moon for July 2025 occurs today, Thursday, July 24, when the Moon reaches conjunction with the Sun—meaning it’s completely invisible from Earth.
Precise timings include:

• July 24, 2025 at 2:11 p.m. PT (Pacific Time)—approximately the same moment across the Northern Hemisphere Calendar 12+5Wikipedia+5Astronomy Magazine+5.

This moment marks the official start of the lunar cycle. In the Northern Hemisphere, it appears as the Moon is entirely dark and unseen in the sky.

Today is Pioneer Day – Mormons enter Salt Lake City, July 24, 1847.

July 24, 1847: American inventor Richard March Hoe patents the rotary printing press, revolutionizing mass printing.
July 24, 1959: During a visit to the Soviet Union, Vice President Richard M. Nixon and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev compared the merits of capitalism and communism in the “kitchen debate,” so-named because it took place at a model kitchen at a U.S. exhibition.  Go to article.

Simon Bolivar, S. American liberator, b. 1783.
Alexandre Dumas, writer, b. 1802.
Amelia Earhart, aviatrix, b. 1898.
Zelda Fitzgerald, writer, b. 1900.
Jennifer Lopez, actress, b. 1970

Neanderthal genes may explain disorder where brain bulges out of the skull
Neanderthal genes may explain why some people have Chiari malformation type I, a condition in which the brain bulges out of the back of the skull. Read More.

Iconic ‘Apollo Earthrise’ crater just helped a spaceship get better at hunting aliens
A large lunar crater featured in the iconic ‘Earthrise’ photo has just helped the European JUICE spacecraft hone its alien-hunting instruments during a once-in-a-lifetime flyby. Read More.

Best-ever map of the human genome sheds light on ‘jumping genes,’ ‘junk DNA’ and more
In a pair of papers, scientists greatly expanded our catalog of known genomic variation among humans. Read More.

Watch this robot ‘cannibal’ grow bigger and stronger by consuming smaller robots
Scientists explore the concept of “robot metabolism” with a weird machine that can integrate material from other robots so it can become more capable and overcome physical challenges. Read More.

Students build new ‘hybrid drone’ — watch it fly in the air and then seamlessly dive underwater
A 3D-printed hybrid drone can quickly transition between air and water thanks to variable pitch propellers. Watch a video of the drone in action. Read More.

Venus Williams is engaged
The tennis superstar revealed the big news after becoming the second-oldest woman to win a tour-level singles match.

Pete Davidson expecting first child with partner
And the comedian is overjoyed to be entering his dad era.

What is Shohei Ohtani’s next big hit? 
Let’s just say it has to do with the Los Angeles Dodgers player’s dog.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Konya, Turkey
The harvest season ends in the circular wheat fields of Altınova and Gözlü in the Kadınhanı district
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Horsey Gap, UK
People watch a grey seal colony on the beach in Norfolk
Photograph: Matthew Chattle/Shutterstock

Almere, Netherlands
A bus drives through a solar farm. The farm produces enough electricity to supply 80,000 households
Photograph: Shutterstock
Market Closes for July 24^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44693.91	-316.38
		-0.70%
S&P 500	6363.35	+4.44
		+0.07%
NASDAQ	21057.96	+37.94
		+0.18%
TSX	27372.26	-44.15
		-0.16%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41826.34	+655.02
		+1.59%
HANG SENG	25667.18	+129.11
		+0.51%
SENSEX	82184.17	-542.47
		-0.66%
FTSE 100*	9138.37	+76.88
		+0.85%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.548	3.555
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.857	3.865
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3957	4.3818
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9347	4.9378

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7328	0.7349
US $	1.3646	1.3607

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6033	0.6237
US $	1.1750	0.8510

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3413.55	3409.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.23	66.36

Market Commentary:
You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward, –Steve Jobs, 1955-2011.

On this day in 1987, the corporate assets of ZZZZ Best were sold at bankruptcy auction. The carpet-cleaning company run by 21-year-old whiz kid Barry Minkow had a stock-market value of roughly $300 million months earlier—but virtually no customers, revenues or assets. Minkow had set up an elaborate system of phantom offices and phony account records.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 27,372.26 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Teck Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 8.7%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 14.4%.
Today, 120 of 213 shares fell, while 86 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.44t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.24% compared with 6.23% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -46.9142| -1.3| 3/44
Financials | -24.0829| -0.3| 13/12
Consumer Discretionary | -7.3680| -0.8| 2/7
Utilities | -0.9861| -0.1| 5/9
Information Technology | -0.4268| 0.0| 5/4
Health Care | 0.3582| 0.5| 2/1
Communication Services | 0.5190| 0.1| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 0.5228| 0.1| 5/5
Industrials | 2.6154| 0.1| 12/17
Real Estate | 5.1989| 1.1| 4/13
Energy | 26.4436| 0.6| 32/6
Teck Resources | -14.0400| -8.7| 116.2| -17.7
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.1920| -1.2| 46.2| -0.2
Couche-Tard | -7.5520| -1.8| -8.1| -6.1
FirstService | 6.3120| 8.9| 186.8| 1.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 6.7340| 1.1| -57.3| -2.8
Waste Connections | 11.6500| 2.6| 51.1| 4.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock closed lower Thursday, falling off a day-prior record close, as market watchers’ debate whether or not a rate cut is possible over the second half of 2025, even if the window for one may be tight.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell a modest 44.15 points to 27,372.26.
Among sectors, most were lower, but only Base Metals fell by more than 1%, dropping1.7%.
Energy was the biggest gainer, rising 0.95%.
In the rates debate, RBC noted its central scenario since mid-June is that the Bank of Canada cutting cycle is over.
“Yes,” it said, “there are risks of further cuts if the macro landscape turns out worse than we expect, but status quo seems insufficient to compel the BoC to act.”
According to RBC, the market is “warming up to our view, whereas consensus has pushed out expected cuts to later in the year”.
Still, RBC did say the BoC should, at its July 30 meeting, keep the door open to further easing contingent on slower growth and lower inflation.
“There is no incentive to remove that optionality amid elevated uncertainty around trade wars.
But the window for cuts is closing fast as monetary policy will probably pass the baton to fiscal after the federal budget (expected in October)
Taylor Schleich, National Bank Director, Economics and Strategy, also said the BoC will leave the overnight target unchanged at 2.75%, the middle of its estimated neutral range, for a third straight meeting.
Unlike the prior two decisions, there’s little doubt about this one, as OIS markets discount sub-10% easing odds, he added.
“Those who had earlier been expecting a cut in July, us included, were dealt a blow this month when hiring was reported to have surged in June and underlying inflation failed to moderate.
The closely watched Business Outlook Survey was hardly upbeat but still soft sentiment is insufficient to compensate for firm core inflation and strong job growth.
Inflation expectations improved but remain a bit high, Schleich said.
In citing growing momentum around the idea that the rate easing cycle is over, Schleich said National Bank disagrees and doesn’t expect the bank’s Governing Council to validate this more hawkish view.
“Instead,” he added, “they’re likely to keep guidance unchanged, reiterating that they’re proceeding carefully and monitoring the same four indicators: export demand; tariff impacts on investment, employment and spending; inflation; and inflation expectations.”
Assuming the BoC’s data dependent stance is reaffirmed, National Bank doesn’t expect a material rate reaction post-decision.
“Markets will likely continue pricing less than one cut this year, for now,” he said.
Schleich noted the BoC’s rates decision will bring with it a new Monetary Policy Report and it hopes this will contain a central economic projection, rather two “illustrative scenarios” as presented in April.
“Policymakers have said we’re closer to the less disruptive scenario which could mean the growth forecasts published are stronger than our own.”
Of commodities today, gold prices weakened late afternoon as the dollar rose after the United States reported a drop in initial jobless claims and investors moved to risk assets after the Trump Administration reached a trade deal with Japan.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $23.90 to US$3,431.20 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher for the first time in five sessions as a day-prior report showed a steeper than expected drop in U.S inventories, though demand concerns continue amid rising supply.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.78 to settle at US$66.03 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up $0.40 to US$68.91.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at all-time highs as Alphabet Inc.’s results showed solid demand for artificial intelligence, bolstering confidence in the technology that has powered the bull market.
Signs of jobs strength ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision lifted Treasury yields.
Following a 28% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 eked out a gain while notching its 10th record in 19 trading days.
Google’s parent AI optimism fueled a rally in companies like Nvidia Corp., which hit a fresh record.
Tesla Inc. sank 8.2% as Elon Musk warned of difficult times after one of the carmaker’s worst stretches since it started producing electric sedans over a dozen years ago.
The S&P 500’s record-setting spree may be stoking concerns about inflated share prices and a revival of meme-stock froth, but JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk isn’t concerned.
Rather, it expects the rally in US equities to keep going.
“While bullishness is not yet consensus, client conversations reveal that even those that skewed bearish are throwing in the towel,” the bank’s head of global market intelligence Andrew Tyler said Thursday in a note ahead of the market open.
Bonds dropped for a second day, with 10-year yields rising three basis points to 4.41%.
Traders slightly pared bets on Fed cuts, projecting less than two reductions this year.
The dollar edged up.
As European policymakers tempered expectations of policy easing, German bunds slid.
US jobless claims fell for a sixth straight week – the longest stretch of declines since 2022.
The characterization of the labor market will be a key feature of next week’s Fed meeting.
“There are still few signs of major cracks in the labor market,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“And if that picture remains intact, the Fed has one less reason to cut interest rates.”
Trading desks at firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citadel Securities are telling clients to buy cheap hedges against potential losses in US stocks as a slew of risks loom over the market’s record advance.
US margin debt, a measure showing how much investors are borrowing to buy stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, is starting to run too hot — a potentially concerning sign for the credit market, according to credit strategists at Deutsche Bank AG.
The market euphoria may continue if there are unexpected tariff reductions or a more dovish stance by the Fed than investors anticipate, the strategists said.
The world’s investors are enjoying a confidence boost after months of uncertainty as President Donald Trump finally starts signing trade deals.
Earlier this year, rapidly shifting tariff policies sent global markets spiraling.
But risk assets have rebounded as investors saw signs of progress in negotiations, and the greenback has steadied.
Trump suggested he would not go below 15% as he sets reciprocal tariff rates ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
US stocks face near-term risk as the market is too complacent about tariffs and the related backlash, according to BNP Paribas Asset Management strategist Chi Lo.
On the trade front, Trump suggested he would not go below 15% as he sets so-called reciprocal tariff rates ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, an indication that the floor for the increased levies was rising.
While some investors are concerned about “frothiness,” Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that, from a technical point of view, that this is not the case when looking “down-cap” from the heavy-weights in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.
“We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation,” he said.
The NYSE advance-decline line, which tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day, this week hit fresh highs.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google inked a deal worth more than $1 billion to provide cloud-computing services to software firm ServiceNow Inc., a win for Google Cloud’s efforts to get major enterprises onto its platform.
* International Business Machines Corp. reported weaker-than- expected sales in its closely watched software segment, disappointing investors who have grown increasingly optimistic about the business.
* Microsoft Corp. said a Chinese hacking group is exploiting security vulnerabilities in the company’s SharePoint servers to deploy ransomware, following a cyberattack discovered last week that has affected hundreds of entities around the world.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. is responding to criminal and civil requests from the US Department of Justice about its Medicare practices, the company said, confirming reports of probes that have added to mounting challenges for the largest US health insurer.
* Union Pacific Corp., North America’s largest railroad, is in advanced discussions with Norfolk Southern Corp. about a potential tie-up in what would be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* American Airlines Group Inc. scaled back its earnings outlook amid deep fare discounts offered to woo reluctant travelers back on flights during a slump in consumer demand.
* Southwest Airlines Co. expects economic turmoil to erase as much as $1 billion of its annual pre-tax profit this year, prompting the US airline to offer shareholders a much-reduced outlook for 2025.
* Union Pacific Corp., North America’s largest railroad, is in advanced discussions with Norfolk Southern Corp. about a potential tie-up in what would be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* The Food and Drug Administration won’t sign off on Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. bringing its controversial gene therapy back to the market until the company can persuade US regulators that it won’t cause more deaths, according to an official familiar with the situation.
* Dow Inc. slumped after the chemical company reported its first quarterly loss in five years as trade and tariff uncertainties weighed on volumes.
* T-Mobile US Inc., the nation’s second-largest wireless provider, reported more new subscribers than analysts were expecting in the second quarter, overcoming a sluggish start to the year.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. cut its annual outlook for the second time this year, suggesting that honey chicken and burrito giveaways haven’t been enough to offset a traffic slump that the company attributed to economic anxiety.
* Blackstone Inc. reported a 25% jump in distributable earnings for the second quarter, buoyed by profits from its retail and evergreen funds.
* ServiceNow Inc. gave a strong outlook for revenue growth in the third quarter and touted customer adoption of its artificial intelligence software tools.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1759
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3508
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 146.93 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $119,052.72
* Ether rose 4.7% to $3,737.51
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $66.20 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,370.69 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best revenge is massive success. –Frank Sinatra, 1915-1998.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On July 23, 1914, Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia following the killing of Archduke Francis Ferdinand by a Serb assassin; the dispute led to World War I.  Go to article.
July 23, 1962: Telestar relays the first live television signal between the US and Europe, transforming global communications.
July 23, 1996, stock guru Elaine Garzarelli told her clients to get out of the market, forecasting a 15% to 25% drop. The warning sparked a one-day selloff but she proved absurdly off the mark: The Dow never again came within 1000 points of her target.

Return of wolves to Yellowstone has led to a surge in aspen trees unseen for 80 years
Gray wolves were reintroduced in Yellowstone National Park in 1995 to help control the numbers of elk that were eating young trees, and it is finally paying off for quaking aspen.

Pristine Etruscan tomb discovered in Italy contains more than 100 untouched artifacts
Archaeologists in Italy have discovered a rare 2,600-year-old Etruscan tomb that somehow escaped looters over the centuries. Read More.

See up to 25 ‘shooting stars’ an hour as Southern Delta Aquariid and Alpha Capricornid meteor showers peak
Two minor meteor showers — the Southern Delta Aquariids and Alpha Capricornids — peak overnight on July 29-30, making it a great night for stargazing. Read More.

Students build new ‘hybrid drone’ — watch it fly in the air and then seamlessly dive underwater
A 3D-printed hybrid drone can quickly transition between air and water thanks to variable pitch propellers. Watch a video of the drone in action.

Bite marks reveal giant terror birds were potentially prey for another apex predator — humongous caiman
Researchers have found evidence of a titanic tussle between a terror bird and a large caiman in Colombia’s ancient La Venta wetlands.

Pepsi bets on a popular health trend
The beverage company hopes its new soda will appeal to consumers who buy sparkling waters and hydration drinks.

Jamie Lee Curtis, Lindsay Lohan reunite for ‘Freaky Friday’ sequel
The stars reveal why fans have had to wait for more than 20 years for another movie

Musicians pay tribute to rock legend Ozzy Osbourne
The Black Sabbath frontman, who died on Tuesday at 76, was remembered as a “pioneer” and “dear friend.”

NASA releases new images of the sun’s atmosphere 
In case you’ve always wanted to take a closer look at our host star without going blind.

Archaeologists have discovered the remains of a medieval knight buried under a shuttered ice cream parlor in Poland. The ornate tombstone and bones of an adult male were remarkably well-preserved and date back to the 13th or 14th century.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Butuo County, China
Women dressed in traditional costumes of the Yi ethnic group parade at the opening ceremony of a torch festival
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock

Mexico City, Mexico
A visitor explores the Frida Kahlo: The Life of an Icon immersive biography exhibition at Espacio Alter
Photograph: Luis Barron/Eyepix Group/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Zhenyuan, China
Dragon boat teams from across China compete in a two-day race on the Wuyang River
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Market Closes for July 23^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45010.29	+507.85
		+1.14%
S&P 500	6358.91	+49.29
		+0.78%
NASDAQ	21020.02	+127.33
		+0.61%
TSX	27416.41	+51.98
		+0.19%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41171.32	+1396.40
		+3.51%
HANG SENG	25538.07	+408.04
		+1.62%
SENSEX	82726.64	+539.83
		+0.66%
FTSE 100*	9061.49	+37.68
		+0.42%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.555	3.501
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.865	3.810
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3818	4.3440
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9378	4.9173

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7349	0.7350
US $	1.3607	1.3605

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6015	0.6244
US $	1.1771	0.8495

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3409.85	3386.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.36	66.21

Market Commentary:
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.2%, or 51.98 to 27,416.41 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%. Celestica Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.5%.
Today, 123 of 213 shares rose, while 86 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.1%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.6% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1% in the past 5 days and rose 3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.23% compared with 6.27% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 54.5110| 0.6| 18/7
Energy | 35.7520| 0.8| 35/5
Consumer Discretionary | 6.5236| 0.7| 7/2
Communication Services | 2.8994| 0.5| 4/1
Utilities | 2.4543| 0.2| 6/8
Health Care | 0.5346| 0.8| 2/1
Real Estate | -0.4050| -0.1| 9/9
Information Technology | -3.3943| -0.1| 7/2
Consumer Staples | -5.3976| -0.5| 1/9
Materials | -20.0958| -0.5| 17/31
Industrials | -21.3874| -0.6| 17/11
Brookfield Corp | 17.2400| 1.9| -29.8| 11.5
Celestica | 12.9600| 7.5| 53.2| 72.9
RBC | 11.9600| 0.7| 27.5| 5.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -9.1020| -1.3| 38.7| 1.0
Shopify | -20.3500| -1.4| -10.9| 8.5
Canadian National | -21.5700| -4.1| 129.8| -10.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A record-breaking run in stocks gained fuel as the US reached a trade agreement with Japan while speculation grew about a similar deal with the European Union.
Treasuries halted a five-day rally and the dollar fell as demand for haven assets waned.
The S&P 500 hit all-time highs on news reports the EU and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most products.
In late hours, Alphabet Inc. reported better-than-expected revenue, but said capital expenditures will be higher than previously forecast.Tesla Inc.’s earnings fell short of Wall Street’s estimates.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.39%.
Bonds remained lower even after a strong $13 billion sale of 20- year securities that tested the appetite for long-maturity debt.
Japan’s 40-year government bond auction saw its weakest demand since 2011.
The EU and the US have accelerated talks over the past weeks to avoid a full-blown trade war.
Bloomberg News reported that European officials are optimistic that a deal can be reached, but negotiations remain fluid.
“Momentum is building with trade deals a week ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“The adage ‘don’t short a dull tape’ seems apropos, given the steady move higher for equities with low volatility.”
President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiators hailed their approach toward addressing grievances with Japan as a possible incentive for the EU.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Japan’s pledge of billions in US investments “could be” a model for the EU.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stopped short of saying the bloc can win the same sort of deal.
“With the Aug. 1 deadline looming, investors have been encouraged by the recent trade-deal announcements,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“The progress on the trade war will provide clarity and help the market move forward to incorporate the new global trade environment.”
At Interactive Brokers, Jose Torres says this week’s news of cemented trade agreements is supporting the “animal spirits” we’re seeing in equity markets.
“The deals are bolstering economic growth projections and offering confidence to investors that the path for corporate earnings expansion remains clear and wide,” he said.
Meanwhile, hesitation regarding income prospects has led to participants doubting whether firms can deliver strong top and bottom lines while additionally providing robust outlooks,according to Torres.
“Incoming quarterly performance reports will probably be well received by Wall Street as economic activity has been buoyant in the second quarter while the skies ahead are clearing up from here,” he concluded.
Signs of stock-market complacency are emerging as the searing equity rally coincides with an acceleration in earnings downgrades, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. quantitative strategists led by Khuram Chaudhry.
“There appears to be an environment of bullish sentiment, speculation, and a growing air of complacency,” they wrote.
“Either sell-side analysts are about to start a new round of upward revisions or the market is at risk of suffering a period of increased volatility and draw-downs. Something has to give!”
US stocks will shrug off tariff risks to get a boost from the second-quarter earnings season, the latest Markets Pulse survey showed.
Equities will beat Treasuries and deliver better volatility-adjusted returns as the reporting season ramps up in the coming weeks, according to nearly two-thirds of the 102 participants in a poll conducted July 10-17.
The positive outlook for stocks continues to be underpinned by technology, and the sector is poised to perform strongest this earnings season, respondents noted.
“The trend remains positive,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates. “Earnings continue to deliver better than average beats.”
While valuations are steep, the prospects of supporting lower interest rates are good in the medium term, and the expectations of further tariff agreements will provide short- term catalysts, he said.
“Focus will stay on trade and earnings,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “On trade, the Japan deal will raise hopes a similar deal with the EU can be stuck before next Friday.”
Bond traders are boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will slash rates more aggressively next year, pricing about 75 basis points of cuts. That compares to 25 basis points projected in April.
Trump said the Fed board “should act” on lowering rates, “but they don’t have the courage to do so.”
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there’s “no rush” to identify a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Corporate Highlights:
* International Business Machines Corp. reported weaker-than- expected sales in its closely watched software segment, disappointing investors who have grown increasingly optimistic about the business.
* T-Mobile US Inc., the nation’s second-largest wireless provider, reported more new subscribers than analysts were expecting in the second quarter, overcoming a sluggish start to the year.
* Mattel Inc. introduced a new forecast for 2025 sales and profit — two months after pulling its previous outlook over the uncertainty tied to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
* ServiceNow Inc. gave a strong outlook for revenue growth and touted customer adoption of its artificial intelligence software tools.
* Microsoft Corp. stands to gain from new White House AI guidelines that call on the US Federal Trade Commission to show more restraint in probes involving artificial intelligence and stand down on cases that put “AI innovation” at risk.
* Texas Instruments Inc., a key chipmaker for producers of cars and factory equipment, sank after stoking fears that a tariff- fueled surge in demand will be short-lived.
* AT&T Inc. reported second-quarter results that mostly exceeded Wall Street estimates, including faster-than-expected growth in wireless phone subscribers after offering perks and incentives to attract customers from rivals.
* Fiserv Inc.’s stock plunged after the financial-technology company reported lackluster growth in its merchant business.
* GE Vernova Inc. has increased its sales of transformers and other electrical equipment to big tech firms building large data centers.
* Infosys Ltd. raised the lower end of its sales forecast for the year, signaling it had a little more certainty of how clients are spending on business transformation projects.
* Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. lowered expectations for net income for 2025 as demand for US hotel bookings declined in the second quarter.
* Moody’s Corp., a bond grader and financial data provider, reported second-quarter revenue that beat analysts’ estimates, underscoring credit markets’ relatively quick recovery from April’s tariff-fueled tumult.
What Markets Live says:
“A slow start to US trade progress had greatly curbed investor expectations for timely deals.
Now that there’s been a steady stream of news flow to the contrary, investors have been more than happy to load up on equities.
Of course, the downside of headline driven trading is that stock sentiment is vulnerable to turning on a dime.
Unless there’s a big macro shock that recalibrates the outlook for risk assets in coming months, there’s enough animal spirits in markets to sustain the stock rally.”
– Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live US

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1774
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3582
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.53 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $118,437.51
* Ether fell 3.2% to $3,589.98
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $65.46 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,390.28 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near. -Sun Tzu, c.544 BC- c.496 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 22, 1298: English forces under Edward I defeat William Wallace at the Battle of Falkirk, quelling the Scottish uprising.
July 22, 1376: Pied Piper of Hamelin, Germany, leads the children away.
July 22, 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed in New Hampshire, pegging major foreign currencies to the U.S. dollar, fixing the gold price at $35 per ounce, and laying the groundwork for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
July 22, 2004: The Sept. 11 commission issued a report saying America’s leaders failed to grasp the gravity of terrorist threats before the 9/11 attacks.  Go to article.

Edward Hopper, artist, b.1882.
Karl Menninger, psychiatrist, b. 1893.
Alexander Calder, sculptor, b. 1898.
Tom Robbins, writer, b. 1936.

Hang on: Earth is spinning faster today. OK, so you won’t feel the 1.38-millisecond difference, but the reason still makes for an intriguing read for science nerds. The spin will be even faster in two weeks.

China launches world’s first robot that can run by itself 24/7 — watch it change its own batteries in unsettling new footage
The Walker S2 humanoid robot, which can change its own battery when it’s running low on power, could potentially be left to run on its own forever. Read More.

2,200-year-old Celtic settlement discovered in Czech Republic — and it’s awash in gold and silver coins
A 2,200-year-old Celtic settlement containing coins and jewelry has been discovered in the Czech Republic. Read More.

Ötzi the Iceman and his neighbors had totally different ancestries, ancient DNA study finds
A study of prehistoric skeletons from the Italian Alps shows that society may have been organized around fathers and that Ötzi the Iceman had a unique family lineage. Read More.

Shark Week team discovers unusual ‘black makos’ off California coast
Weird makos filmed off the California coast in a new Shark Week show raise questions about what these sharks actually are. Read More.

Springsteen makes appearance at Zach Bryan concert
The Boss surprised the audience at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, last weekend and performed two songs.

Someone has eaten artist Maurizio Cattelan’s $6 million banana
Yes, again.

 “The fact that CBS didn’t try to save their No. 1 rated late-night franchise that’s been on the air for over three decades is part of what’s making everybody wonder … was this purely financial or maybe the path of least resistance for your $8 billion merger?”  — Jon Stewart, host of “The Daily Show,” on the cancellation of “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.”

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Uyuni, Bolivia
Tourists watch the sunset at the Uyuni salt flat, which has an area of more than 10,000 sq km and is the biggest such landscape in the world
Photograph: Esteban Biba/EPA

Villars-sur-Ollon, Switzerland
A giant biodegradable land art painting, Vers l’Horizon by the French-Swiss artist Saype, is seen on the ridges of the Grand Chamossaire mountain, above the alpine resort of Villars-sur-Ollon
Photograph: Jean-Christophe Bott/AP

Long summer days on Hampstead Heath in London
Photograph: Sarah M Lee/The Guardian
Market Closes for July 22^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44502.44	+179.37
		+0.40%
S&P 500	6309.62	+4.02
		+0.06%
NASDAQ	20892.69	-81.48
		-0.39%
TSX	27364.43	+47.43
		+0.17%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39774.92	-44.19
		-0.11%
HANG SENG	25130.03	+135.89
		+0.54%
SENSEX	82186.81	-13.53
		-0.02%
FTSE 100*	9023.81	+10.82
		+0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.501	3.518
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.810	3.829
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3440	4.3777
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9173	4.9440

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7350	0.7309
US $	1.3605	1.3681

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5984	0.6256
US $	1.1750	0.8510

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3386.20	3355.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.21	67.20

Market Commentary:
In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run it acts like a weighing machine. –Benjamin Graham, 1894-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.2%, or 47.43 to 27,364.43 in Toronto.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.2%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 141 of 213 shares rose, while 69 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on July 21, 2025 and 26.3% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.42t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 6.27% compared with 6.27% in the previous session and the average of 6.11% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 90.1062| 2.5| 46/1
Energy | 26.6542| 0.6| 27/12
Communication Services | 5.2470| 0.8| 3/2
Financials | 4.1459| 0.0| 15/10
Consumer Discretionary | 3.5688| 0.4| 7/2
Utilities | 3.1886| 0.3| 7/8
Real Estate | 0.8196| 0.2| 11/7
Health Care | -0.5746| -0.9| 1/2
Consumer Staples | -2.0461| -0.2| 5/5
Industrials | -6.6085| -0.2| 14/15
Information Technology | -77.0966| -2.8| 5/5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 24.9700| 4.2| 36.3| 55.6
Wheaton Precious Metals | 16.1800| 4.1| 31.0| 60.9
Canadian Natural Resources | 8.9300| 1.5| -13.5| -4.4
Constellation Software | -9.1190| -1.4| 5.5| 9.1
RBC | -11.3700| -0.6| 149.7| 4.6
Shopify | -62.4900| -4.2| 6.2| 10.1
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange finished Tuesday’s session higher and near record close levels as UBS joined a growing list of firms this week that see the Bank of Canada getting back on the rate cuts path this year, although Rosenberg Research suggests Canada’s equity market doesn’t “screen favorably’ when it comes to the outlook.
The TSX closed up 47.43 points at 27,364,43, within 25 points of the July 17 record close of 27,386.93.
Among sectors, battery metals led advancers, up 2.3%, while base metals rose 2.05%, while energy lagged, falling 0.05%.
Of commodities, gold rose to a five-week high as it looks to challenge record levels on a weak dollar and falling treasury yields.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $37.40 to US$3,443.80 per ounce, the highest since the metal’s record high of US$3,452.80 set on June 13.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower for a third-straight session as supply is climbing while traders wait to see if U.S. President Donald Trump will follow through on his threat to impose tariffs on the country’s trading partners next month.
In its final day as the active contract, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery closed $0.99 to settle at US$66.21 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen down $0.77 to US$68.44.
On interest rates, UBS in a July 21 note said it expects Canada’s central bank to keep monetary policy on hold at its July 30 meeting, but added it sees some downside risk to its view of rates staying on hold through the rest of 2025.
“The economy has performed better than feared although trade policy uncertainty has still weighed on activity and business and consumer expectations.”
The UBS note was published following the release Monday by the BoC of a Business Outlook Survey and a Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for the second quarter.
Rosenberg Research, for its part, published a note breaking down the global equity landscape, evaluating various country fundamentals and valuations, both nominal and adjusted for real interest rates.
According to it, international markets, namely Emerging Markets and parts of Europe, stand out for their more attractive risk/reward profiles.
“Diversifying abroad remains the prudent strategy at this time for global equity investors,” it added.
The research focused on valuations, especially benchmarked against current interest rates, and fundamentals to assess which countries and regions “screen favorably” when it comes to the outlook.
It cited a few notable findings in the results: Emerging Markets being the clear favorites — specifically, Poland and Asia-Pacific ex. Japan, which make up the top four countries in its list, Of the 21 countries on the list, Canada was ranked 18.
“Safe to say that diversifying abroad remains a prudent strategy – something we have been advocating for some time.
Despite U.S. assets receiving the bulk of investors’ attention, large pockets of international stocks serve up attractive fundamentals yet have been broadly ignored.
Emerging Asia and Poland top our stock screen presented above (Canada, Japan, Italy, and the Netherlands bring up the rear).
As such, investors who are sitting on years of outsized gains in the former would be best to crystalize some of those profits and increase ex. U.S. weights in the portfolio,” Rosenberg Research concluded.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for the start of the high-stakes mega cap earnings season kept stocks at all- time highs, with investors also parsing the latest tariff developments.
Bond yields and the dollar fell.
While the S&P 500 barely budged, more than 400 of its shares rose.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” giants halted a nine-day advance, but Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. climbed before their results. D.R. Horton Inc. led a rally in homebuilders.
Kohl’s Corp. surged as much as 105% — before paring gains to 38% — in a move reminiscent of the meme era.
In late hours, Texas Instruments Inc. gave a disappointing forecast.
Big tech’s strength will be on full display over the next few weeks as the group begins unveiling quarterly earnings.
The lion’s share of S&P 500 earnings growth continues to come from beneficiaries of advancements in artificial intelligence.
The Magnificent Seven companies are expected to post a combined 14% rise in second-quarter profits, while earnings for the rest of the US equity benchmark are predicted to be relatively flat, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
“Tech heavyweights remain critical to market health,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“We expect AI- driven firms to continue anchoring tech sector growth.
AI adoption at the corporate level is improving, but the application layer of this technology is only just being tested.”
On the trade front, President Donald Trump unveiled an agreement with the Philippines setting a 19% tariff on the country’s exports.
Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney sought to cool expectations about reaching a deal in the next 10 days but said he’s looking to stabilize the relationship with the US.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for their third round of trade talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions.
Bessent told Fox Business he sees no reason for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to step down.
Meantime, Trump stressed his belief that the Fed’s benchmark rate should be 3 percentage points lower.
Bessent, in the same Oval Office event, said that “based on the way they cut rates last fall, they should be cutting rates now.”
“We expect market volatility to pick up in the lead-up to the August tariff deadline, with threats to Federal Reserve independence and geopolitical uncertainty lingering in the background,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Bank of America Corp. clients were net buyers of US equities in the week ended last Friday, with purchases most pronounced among individual investors, followed by hedge funds.
BofA clients funneled $1.8 billion into US stocks last week, with buying across all size segments, the team led by equity and quantitative strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote Tuesday in research note.
“Is this running of the bulls with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs sustainable?” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“The weight of the technical evidence suggests that breadth remains bullish, and we would welcome ‘healthy’ pullbacks of less than 5% to add to positions.”
What Bloomberg Strategists say… “An ugly start to US equity trading is far from across the board.
The frothier tech and growth stocks are leading declines, but value stocks and defensive sectors are up on the day still.
Coupled with the decline in bond yields, this looks like the market paring a little risk, perhaps ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings on Wednesday.” – Sebastian Boyd, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. accused Chinese state-sponsored hackers of using flaws in its SharePoint document management software in a hacking campaign that has targeted businesses and government agencies around the world.
* OpenAI and Oracle Corp. announced they will develop 4.5 gigawatts of additional US data center capacity in an expanded partnership, furthering a massive plan to power artificial intelligence workloads.
* ASM International NV’s second-quarter orders missed expectations, as some chipmakers’ struggles undermined demand for its semiconductor equipment.
* Hershey Co. is raising prices on its candy due to historically high cocoa costs.
* Lockheed Martin Corp. caught investors off guard with $1.6 billion in charges and a possible tax hit that sent its stock tumbling, the latest setback for the defense giant whose popular F-35 jet faces criticism over cost overruns and delays.
* Northrop Grumman Corp. raised its earnings guidance for the full year after getting a boost from its Sentinel ballistic missile and B-21 bomber programs.
* RTX Corp. lowered its full-year profit outlook as the company digests the impact of tariffs that have roiled the aerospace industry, even as strong demand boosts sales above Wall Street’s expectations.
* General Motors Co. earned $2.53 per share on an adjusted basis, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.33 but short of the $3.06 it made a year ago. GM’s profits also suffered from higher warranty costs and a buildup in inventory of electric vehicles.
* Coca-Cola Co. posted second-quarter sales growth that beat Wall Street expectations as consumers continue to pay higher prices for the company’s soft drinks.
* Philip Morris International Inc.’s shipments of its Zyn nicotine pouches accelerated by less than analysts had expected.
* Synovus Financial Corp., a regional bank in the southeastern US, is weighing options including a potential merger after drawing interest, people familiar with the matter said.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1751
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3532
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 146.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2% to $119,300.11
* Ether fell 2.3% to $3,670.08
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $66.21 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,431.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it is not the same river and he is not the same man. –Heraclitus, c.534 BCE- c.475 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

July 21, 1798: Napoleon’s forces defeat the Mamluks at the Battle of the Pyramids, bringing Cairo under French control.
July 21, 1861: Battle of Bull Run.
July 21,1933: with investors digesting President Roosevelt’s “New Deal” measures, the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered what was then its ninth-worst daily percentage loss, dropping 7.8% to close the day at a dismal 88.71.

Ernest Hemingway, writer, b. 1899.
Marshall McLuhan, writer, b. 1911.
Isaac Stern, musician, b. 1920.
Cat Stevens, musician, b. 1948.
Robin Williams, comic/actor, b.1952.

‘Superman’ continues to soar at the box office
After years of Marvel movies, audiences are up for a little DC action with the Man of Steel.

Medieval scribe’s slip-up triggers centuries of confusion
Researchers have finally decoded an error in the 12th-century epic, “The Song of Wade.” Apparently, the hero doesn’t battle elves.

Massachusetts man became a millionaire twice in one night
And it was all due to one lucky mistake.

Judge dismisses Trump’s lawsuit against Bob Woodward
The president claimed that Woodward had released audio from their interviews without his consent and sought nearly $50 million in damages.

New pocket-size model of ALS ‘breathes and flows like human tissue’
A stem-cell-based “organ-on-a-chip” model of ALS mimics early biological changes seen in the degenerative disease. Read More.

Scientists discover changes to the polar vortex that are plunging parts of US into deep freeze
When the polar vortex stretches, North America feels the chill. New research reveals some of the stratospheric patterns controlling these cold snaps. Read More.

First video of an earthquake fault cracking has revealed another surprise
A stunning video of the ground cracking during a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Myanmar is revealing new surprises. Read More.

Endurance athletes that carry Neanderthal genes could be held back from reaching their peak
A Neanderthal variant in an enzyme involved in energy production has been linked to ​​a 50% lower probability of achieving elite athletic performance. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

153rd Open Championship
Rory McIlroy lines up but misses a short putt for par on the 11th green.
Photograph: Tom Jenkins

Herd community: Australian Sheep and Wool Show – in pictures
Crocheted lambs made by Sumeyra Ozyurek of Little Cotton Ears
Photograph: Steve Womersley

Beijing, China
People dressed in traditional costumes stand outside the Forbidden City
Photograph: Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 21^st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44323.07	-19.12
		-0.04%
S&P 500	6305.60	+8.81
		+0.14%
NASDAQ	20974.18	+78.52
		+0.38%
TSX	27317.00	+2.99
		+0.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39819.11	-82.08
		-0.21%
HANG SENG	24994.14	+168.48
		+0.68%
SENSEX	82200.34	+442.61
		+0.54%
FTSE 100*	9012.99	+20.87
		+0.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.518	3.573
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.829	3.888
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3777	4.4155
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9440	4.9875

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7309	0.7282
US $	1.3681	1.3732

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5997	0.6251
US $	1.1694	0.8551

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3355.10	3318.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.20	67.54

Market Commentary:
The learn-it-all will always do better than the know-it-all. -Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft, b. 1967.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 27,317.00 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.9%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.0%.
Today, 104 of 213 shares rose, while 107 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.1% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.42t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.27% compared with 6.34% in the previous session and the average of 6.10% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 82.3044| 2.3| 42/6
Information Technology | 6.7599| 0.2| 7/3
Utilities | 6.2065| 0.6| 10/5
Communication Services | 4.9420| 0.8| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 4.3727| 0.4| 3/7
Real Estate | 1.7260| 0.4| 11/8
Health Care | 0.0208| 0.0| 1/1
Consumer Discretionary | -2.6826| -0.3| 3/6
Financials | -22.1823| -0.2| 10/15
Industrials | -24.5736| -0.7| 12/17
Energy | -53.9638| -1.3| 2/37
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 22.1900| 3.9| 3.4| 49.3
Wheaton Precious Metals | 12.2400| 3.2| -15.7| 54.6
Shopify | 12.1700| 0.8| -40.6| 14.9
Constellation Software | -9.4200| -1.4| -31.2| 10.6
Enbridge | -13.2600| -1.4| 8.8| 0.0
Brookfield Corp | -15.4400| -1.7| -57.0| 9.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange returned to winning ways Monday, but only just in the end after hitting record intraday highs and looking like it would re-test last Thursday’s record close earlier in the session as rate cut expectations rebuild in Canada.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed a modest 2.99 points to 27,317.0, having been near 27,446 shortly before midday, briefly giving it a chance of beating the record close of 27,386.93 hit last week.
Among sectors, most were lower, with Energy the biggest loser, down near 1%.
No sector gained near 1%.
Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a small loss, remaining rangebound as strong summer demand counterbalanced rising supply and growth worries.
WTI oil for August delivery closed $0.14 to settle at US$67.20 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down $0.11 to US$69.17.
But gold futures were sharply higher Monday, rising to the highest in a month as the dollar and treasury yields weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $49.50 to US$3,407.80 per ounce, the highest since June 18.
The Bank of Canada released both the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for the second quarter of 2025 revived talk around the outlook for interest rates.
Katherine Judge, Senior Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said the bank’s Q2 surveys for businesses and households showed that trade uncertainty is still weighing on activity, with sentiment still low despite an improvement from the Q1 survey.
Judge noted firms reported they cannot pass on a lot of the cost increases tied to tariffs to consumers due to weak demand, and near-term inflation expectations moved lower for businesses.
This suggests that slack may not be widening, but is persisting, and with inflation expectations well anchored, the BoC should feel comfortable cutting in September, she added.
Meanwhile, Judge also noted, the Canadian survey of consumer expectations showed that job concerns remained elevated in trade exposed sectors, but that worries had diminished from Q1.
Households are reducing spending and increasing savings because of the uncertainty, she said.
Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins Capital, noted worries about tariff pass through and inflation expectations were the reasons the BoC held rates back in June, but he said those reasons look less concerning in these surveys.
“While central bankers probably won’t ease monetary policy next week, there is ample scope for them to resume their cutting cycle later in the year should the economy continue to stagnate.
Yields in Canada are largely unchanged as this survey is unlikely to move the needle for next week’s rate decision.
However, we do expect the central bank to take a dovish tone in its communications, which could see rate cut expectations rebuild,” Mendes added.
According to National Bank Financial economists Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie, when it comes to next week’s BoC meeting, the decision has arguably already been made.
The duo sees the central bank holding steady considering core inflation pressures, and risks.
They noted June’s reported labor market “strength” also doesn’t scream for immediate rate relief.
“Saying that, we’re not embracing the growing view that this easing cycle is over and overall, this BOS [Business Outlook Survey] supports that.
These data suggest that the economy will continue to operate below its potential (at least over coming months) and leaves us even more skeptical of June’s hiring surge.
Ultimately, inflation will be in the driver’s seat but continued and/or growing economic slack is not consistent with persistently above target inflation, even with some tariff effects.
Despite OIS market skepticism, the Bank could be off the sidelines sooner than expected.”
Still, in looking ahead, Claire Fan, Senior Economist at RBC, maintains the BoC faces an “unusually high hurdle” for considering additional rate cuts.
Fan noted the central bank must, given the brewing trade war with the United States, account for increased government support.
This, Fan said, is better suited to address concentrated weakness in trade exposed sectors than the blunt tool of lower interest rates.
RBC’s base case forecast continues to project the BoC will maintain the overnight rate at current levels going forward.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The start of a busy week for Corporate America saw stocks giving up most of their gains, with traders looking for signs of resilience in earnings amid tariff risks.
Treasury yields fell alongside the dollar.
While the S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time, the equity benchmark rose just 0.1%.
Energy shares joined a decline in oil amid lingering worries about crude demand.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps outperformed, with Tesla Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. due to report results this week.
The stakes will again be high as traders look for updates on artificial-intelligence spending.
Nvidia Corp. fell.
Gains in Treasuries were led by longer maturities, with the 30-year yield slipping four basis points to 4.95%.
The greenback dropped against all its developed-world peers.
The yen climbed as Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would carry on as leader even as the ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house election.
Investors will also keep a close eye on tariff headlines.
President Donald Trump may issue more unilateral tariff letters before Aug. 1, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
More trade deals may also be reached before the deadline, she added.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, it is becoming more evident that the Trump Administration is going to be tougher on the tariff issue going forward.
So, it’s important to decide whether this is something the stock market is pricing in right now.
“Earnings season will move into full swing this week, and the guidance will be more important than usual,” he said.
“This guidance is going to have create a very large increase in earnings estimates if the market is going to reach some of the targets that exist on Wall Street right now.”
The S&P 500 is looking at a double-digit increase in the second half of the year, powered by the resilient strength of America’s technology behemoths, according to Wells Fargo Securities’ Christopher Harvey.
“What we’re seeing is the winners continue to win,” Harvey said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance.
“The uber-cap companies have the higher margins, are gaining more market share.
There is a real secular trend in AI that will continue.”
The second-quarter earnings season is off to a ripping start, with consumer strength powering resilient corporate profits.
Yet after hitting a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 is trading around 22 times expected 12-month profits, leaving little room for error.
“While stocks may be due for a breather, we believe the bull market remains intact,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We maintain our June 2026 S&P 500 price target of 6,500 and recommend using volatility as an opportunity to phase into markets.”
Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson advise investors to stay bullish on US stocks, as earnings momentum, positive operating leverage and cash tax savings are under- appreciated tailwinds.
Recent dollar weakness should provide a small tailwind to S&P 500 earnings, partially offsetting the tariff earnings pressure, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin said.
“Although valuations are elevated, a large component of the S&P 500 consists of large cap tech stocks which command higher multiples due to their consistent growth, incredibly strong cash flows and profit margins,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners. “Valuation isn’t a reliable indicator for future market direction.”
The combination of declining inflation continued growth and stable interest rates is a trifecta of positives that supports current stock market valuations, he noted.
“Most of the Magnificent Seven should continue leading the market due to impressive earnings growth, copious levels of cash flow and continued demand for their businesses,” he said.
“The AI tailwinds are in the early innings and are set to benefit the biggest players in tech the most.”
Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte see resilient earnings growth suggesting room for equity positioning to keep rising.
The S&P 500 hasn’t posted a 1% up or down day since late June, and Mark Hackett at Nationwide notes that volatility gauges also remain “suspiciously quiet.”
“This calm is unusual and may reflect both investor fatigue and institutional hesitation to fight the current trend,” he said.
“We’re in a window where calm can quickly turn to complacency, While a break in either direction is possible, current positioning suggests we’d bet on a rally before a drop.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Hackers exploited a security flaw in common Microsoft Corp. software to breach governments, businesses and other organizations across the globe and steal sensitive information, according to officials and cybersecurity researchers.
* Verizon Communications Inc. posted second-quarter revenue that surpassed analysts’ estimates and raised its profit outlook, buoyed by wireless price increases and recent tax legislation.
* Block Inc. rallied as the firm is set to join the S&P 500, a milestone that underscores the growing influence of digital payments and crypto in mainstream finance.
* Domino’s Pizza’s launch of its Parmesan stuffed-crust pizza attracted new customers and boosted the company’s same-store sales, company executives said on its earnings call.
* Opendoor Technologies Inc. soared on Monday, extending its gravity-defying rally from last week, as investors continued to pile into the stock that has found a sudden fandom among retail traders and social-media platforms.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. sank as the company refused to pause all shipments of its Elevidys treatment after three deaths were linked to the company’s gene therapies.
* Elliott Investment Management has built up its stake in Equinix Inc. and is pushing the data center operator to take steps to boost its share price, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* BP Plc, under pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management to improve its performance, appointed the former boss of a building-materials company as its new chairman, replacing Helge Lund.
* Shares of global consumer intelligence platform NIQ Global Intelligence Plc are expected to start trading this week, and their performance could open the door for other private equity- backed companies weighing going public.
* GE Vernova Inc. is acquiring French software company Alteia SAS as the maker of power generation equipment looks to use artificial intelligence for ways to strengthen the electric grid.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.1690
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3484
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 147.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $116,813.69
* Ether fell 0.2% to $3,734.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.86%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.95%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $67.03 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.5% to $3,398.78 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As always,

Carolann
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. –Ernest Hemingway, 1899-1961.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 18, 1908: The Frogs, an African American theatrical organization, is founded in Harlem.
July 18, 1936: The Spanish Civil War begins as Nationalist forces rise against Spain’s Republican government, sparking a brutal three-year conflict that draws in foreign powers.
On this day in 1968, Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, engineering refugees from Fairchild Semiconductor, established N.M. Electro. It soon changed its name to Intel.
July 18, 1969:  A car driven by Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., plunged off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island near Martha’s Vineyard. His passenger, 28-year-old Mary Jo Kopechne, died. Go to article.

Nelson Mandela, b. 1918.
Hunter S. Thompson, b. 1939.

New bionic knee connects directly with muscles and bone to feel more like the user’s body
A bionic knee that directly attaches to the thigh bone and uses implanted electrodes can make a prosthetic leg feel more like a part of the body, a new study finds. Read More.

600-year-old amethyst ‘worthy of a duke’ found in medieval castle moat in Poland
The amethyst was set in high-quality silver and probably once formed part of a brooch. Read More.

Scientists make ‘magic state’ breakthrough after 20 years — without it, quantum computers can never be truly useful
Scientists demonstrate a process called “magic state distillation” in logical qubits for the first time, meaning we can now build quantum computers that are both error-free and more powerful than supercomputers. Read More.

Behold, ‘The Beast’: Gigantic animal-like plasma plume 13 times wider than Earth hovers over the sun
Astrophotographers have snapped stunning shots of a giant shapeshifting solar prominence, dubbed “The Beast,” which appeared over the sun’s northeastern limb on July 12 and rained impossibly fast fire over our home star.  Read More.

Giant meteor impact may have triggered massive Grand Canyon landslide 56,000 years ago
Researchers have found a link between two geological events in iconic locations of the U.S. Southwest that scientists previously didn’t think had anything to do with each other.

TSA expands security checkpoint lanes
Two groups of passengers will now have the opportunity to enjoy an expedited process through security at the airport.

Dinosaur fossil found underneath parking lot
The phrase “leave no stone unturned” has taken on new meaning for paleontologists at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science.

Stevie Nicks, Lindsey Buckingham stir up Fleetwood Mac reunion hopes
The lyrics the musicians posted on social media seem to suggest that anything is possible.

Lewis Capaldi: Antipsychotic medication ‘changed my life’
The Scottish singer has been taking care of his mental health since having a “breakdown of sorts” at the Glastonbury Festival in 2023.

Famed skydiver and BASE jumper Felix Baumgartner dies at 56
Baumgartner achieved international recognition in 2012 when he performed a jump from 24 miles above the Earth, higher than anyone before him. He died on Thursday in a paragliding accident.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

İzmir, Turkey
Tomatoes left in the sun to dry

Snettisham, Norfolk
Rise and shine. Dawn breaks across Norfolk behind St Mary’s church.’
Photograph: Richard Gibbs

In a new light: an infrared perspective of Australia’s capital
Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Market Closes for July 18^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44342.19	-142.30
		-0.32%
S&P 500	6296.79	-0.57
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	20895.66	+10.01
		+0.05%
TSX	27314.01	-72.92
		-0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39819.11	-82.08
		-0.21%
HANG SENG	24825.66	+326.71
		+1.33%
SENSEX	81757.73	-501.51
		-0.61%
FTSE 100*	8992.12	+19.48
		+0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.573	3.567
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.888	3.878
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4155	4.4513
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9875	5.0072

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7282	0.7277
US $	1.3732	1.3741

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5966	0.6263
US $	1.1625	0.8602

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3318.50	3323.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.54	67.54

Market Commentary:
The consumer is our boss, quality is our work, and value for money is our goal. –Forrest Edward Mars Sr., 1904-1999.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 27,314.01 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 3.6%.
Today, 111 of 213 shares fell, while 100 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 17, 2025 and 26.1% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.34% compared with 6.26% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Industrials | -36.5482| -1.0| 12/17
Materials | -20.1672| -0.6| 12/36
Financials | -14.3489| -0.2| 13/11
Information Technology | -13.2050| -0.5| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -9.4345| -1.0| 2/7
Communication Services | -7.0552| -1.1| 1/4
Health Care | -1.1093| -1.7| 0/3
Real Estate | -0.1918| 0.0| 6/13
Utilities | 4.8761| 0.5| 10/4
Energy | 10.5991| 0.2| 34/6
Consumer Staples | 13.6689| 1.3| 8/2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -25.6200| -3.6| 71.3| 2.2
Brookfield Corp | -13.6300| -1.5| -19.8| 11.7
Canadian National | -13.1000| -2.4| 66.1| -6.4
Intact Financial | 5.7710| 1.6| 11.6| 16.2
Nutrien | 7.4050| 2.7| -24.1| 28.0
Couche-Tard | 7.7700| 1.9| 107.6| -5.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange slipped more than 70 points Friday afternoon, falling off a day-prior record close.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 72.70 points at 27,314.23, compared with Thursday’s 27,386.34.
Industrials and Information Technology were the biggest decliners, down 4.6% and 1.9%, respectively.
Utilities topped the gainers, rising 2.1%.
Stefane Marion and Matthieu Arseneau, economists at the National Bank of Canada, said in their monthly equity monitor report that in July, Canada was one of only 11 countries in the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index to reach new equity market highs in 2025.
The S&P/TSX has climbed 10.8% year-to-date, hitting a record 27,386.93 on Thursday.
The gains were supported by positive earnings forecasts and an 11% expected growth in earnings per share, the economists said, adding that risks remain, including the threat of new U.S. tariffs and signs of slowing growth.
“Nonetheless, optimism persists around a possible Canada-U.S. trade deal and Ottawa’s efforts to reduce regulatory burdens and boost investment.”
The economists said given this backdrop, they are keeping their asset allocation unchanged after last month’s move to slightly reduce fixed income and increase their position in Canadian equities.
However, their overall outlook remains cautious amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff wars, with the U.S. President reigniting trade tensions by announcing new double-digit tariffs set to begin on Aug. 1, the note added.
Assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen and senior economist Claire Fan at RBC said the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, due Monday, is expected to show early signs of stabilization in business expectations for sales, hiring, and input costs in the second quarter, following sharp declines in the first quarter.
This improvement comes after trade tensions eased.
While Canada was a major focus of U.S. trade complaints in Q1, it was left off the list of countries facing U.S. tariffs in April.
A tariff exemption for trade under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement introduced in March also remains in place, they said.
More broadly, several indicators suggest a stabilizing Canadian economy in Q2.
Job postings have steadied, and small business confidence has continued to recover since a sharp drop in March, they added.
“The survey could highlight a divergence between sectors directly exposed to trade headwinds (such as manufacturing and transportation), which will likely maintain a softer outlook, while other sectors, particularly consumer-facing businesses, that are more positive,” they said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed lower on Friday, surrendering earlier gains that came on strong summer demand and continuing violence in the Middle East.
After trading as high as US$68.96 WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.20 to settle at US$67.34 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$28 to US$69.24.
Gold traded higher midafternoon on Friday as the dollar and treasury yields weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$12.80 to US$3,358.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bond yields fell as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his case for a July rate cut, while data showed consumer expectations for inflation improved.
Stocks wavered amid earnings.
President Donald Trump signed the stablecoins bill in a win for the crypto industry.
Short-dated Treasuries led gains as Waller hinted he would dissent if his colleagues vote to hold rates steady in July.
Bonds also rose as University of Michigan data showed consumers expect prices to increase at an annual rate of 4.4% over the next year, down from 5% in the prior month.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The dollar edged lower, but notched an advance for the week.
“Investors have something to cheer about with signs of improved inflation expectations,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“According to this report, the trajectory looks encouraging.”
Meantime, Waller said he sees no sign that inflation expectations are on the rise, which allows the Fed to move forward with rate cuts.
He also restated the case the Fed should cut when policymakers gather later this month, given data suggesting the US labor market is “on the edge.”
“We think he is correct. The Fed’s role is to think ahead, not look behind, which is what Waller is doing concerning the slowing employment situation,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“Nonetheless a July cut won’t happen.”
Money markets still assign near-zero odds of a cut on July 30.
They price in about 45 basis points of easing by year-end, down from more than 65 basis points at the start of the month.
US consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in early July as expectations about the economy continued to improve.
The preliminary July sentiment index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 a month earlier, according to University of Michigan data released Friday.
The report offered further relief after data this week showed US retail sales rebounded in June in a broad advance, tempering some concerns about a retrenchment in consumer spending.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, macroeconomic data remains broadly supportive, and the recent strength in markets has been impressive, though perhaps even more noteworthy is the prevailing sense of calm amid a busy and often volatile news cycle.
“Investors have responded positively to robust economic indicators and earnings reports that highlight continued resilience in US consumer spending,” he said.
“The rest of earnings season will be a key test given elevated valuations and expectations, though with current momentum and sentiment, the path of least resistance is higher.”
At Wolfe Research, Chris Senyek says economic data releases this week have been consistent with his view that the US economy is coming in better than consensus expects.
“However, we continue to be worried about the risk of inflation remaining stickier than expected in the back half of 2025,” Senyek noted.
The stock market’s relatively modest gains this week despite mostly solid economic data and earnings could be a preview for much of the rest of the year, according to Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“While tariff uncertainty continues, the markets may be learning to live with it, to a certain extent,” he said.
“But with a decisive resolution unlikely in the near term and the Fed holding the line on rate cuts, price action at the index level could remain congested.”
Trump is readying plans for industry-specific tariffs to kick in alongside his country-by-country duties in two weeks, ramping up his push to reshape the US’s standing in the global trading system by penalizing purchases from abroad.
Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any deal with the European Union, the Financial Times reported.
Meantime, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the two nations could reach a “good” trade deal while signaling the process may take more time.
“The lack of any clear damage from the tariffs, solid  earnings results, a firm job market, and consumers who keep spending are supporting the high valuations,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Food and Drug Administration plans to ask Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. to pause shipments of its Elevidys treatment after three deaths were linked to the company’s gene therapies, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Humana Inc. lost a lawsuit seeking to reverse cuts to its Medicare bonus payments, a blow for the insurer that had hoped the court would restore billions in revenue.
* American Express Co.’s expenses grew in the second quarter as the firm made risk-management investments for its affluent consumers, who continued to spend amid economic uncertainty.
* Netflix Inc. beat expectations for second-quarter results and continues to trounce rival media companies, yet the shares slipped on Friday as investors took a pause after the stock has nearly doubled over the past year.
* 3M Co. raised its profit forecast and beat Wall Street’s estimates for the second quarter as Chief Executive Officer William Brown’s effort to reinvigorate the company gained momentum.
* Chevron Corp. has prevailed in a 20-month fight to buy Hess Corp. for $53 billion, overcoming a challenge by arch rival Exxon Mobil Corp. that was unprecedented in the modern history of Big Oil.
* SLB, the world’s largest oil-services provider, sees resiliency in the industry and remains constructive about the second half of 2025 despite uncertainties in customer demand.
* Interactive Brokers Group Inc. reported total net interest income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Charles Schwab Corp. reported earnings per share that topped estimates as the firm said client assets hit a new record and trading revenue rose.
* Ally Financial Inc. left most of its forecast unchanged despite strong second-quarter consumer auto-loan originations and earnings.
* Meta Platforms Inc. said it won’t sign the code of practice for Europe’s new set of laws governing artificial intelligence, calling the guidelines to help companies follow the AI Act overreach.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1622
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3413
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 148.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $117,433.01
* Ether rose 3.9% to $3,554.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.87%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined one basis point to m5.00%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $67.38 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,348.06 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone. 🔆

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You will never do anything in this world without courage.  It is the greatest quality of the mind next to honor. –Aristotle, 384 BCE-322 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
On this day in 1861, the first U.S. paper money payable on demand, whose color gives America’s bills the nickname “greenbacks,” was issued by the US government.
July 17, 1918: Czar Nicholas II and his family are executed.
July 17, 1950: Julious Rosenberg is arrested on suspicion of espionage.
July 17, 1955: Disneyland opened in Anaheim, Calif.  Go to article

Erotic mosaic stolen in World War II returned to Pompeii
The spicy piece may have once decorated a bedroom floor in a Roman villa.

Medals for Winter Olympics unveiled
The medals were designed to represent both Olympic and Paralympic values.

‘Smurfs’ are back on the big screen
The latest film about the little blue animated creatures will feature a star-studded cast of voices.

Scientists discover long-lost giant rivers that flowed across Antarctica up to 80 million years ago
Large flat surfaces carved by ancient rivers deep beneath East Antarctica are influencing how ice flows across the continent today, according to a new study. Read More.

‘Ice cube’ clouds discovered at the galaxy’s center shouldn’t exist — and they hint at a recent black hole explosion
Twin orbs of superhot plasma at the Milky Way’s center known as the “Fermi bubbles” contain inexplicable clouds of cold hydrogen, new research reveals. They could help scientists figure out when our galaxy’s black hole last erupted. Read More.

from The Late  Night Shows:
“As of now, Trump is keeping the information totally classified, a.k.a. in the bathroom at Mar-a-Lago,” Jimmy Fallon said of the so-called Epstein files.

“Yeah, the excuses are getting worse and worse. Today, Trump was, like, ‘A dog ate the Epstein files, then people in Ohio ate the dog.’” — JIMMY FALLON.

“Yeah, they’re burning the MAGA hats. People in China were like, ‘Oh, come on, we worked so hard making them.’” — JIMMY FALLON

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Malé, Maldives
Construction work continues at the Thilamalé Bridge project, which aims to link the capital with the islands of Villingili, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi
Photograph: Mohamed Afrah/AFP/Getty Images

Tokyo, Japan
An image of a nebula is reflected on a window at Shibuya Sky, an observation deck in the Shibuya district. The light production Inner Nebulas runs until September
Photograph: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Tower Bridge, London
‘Mind the gap – sailing under Tower Bridge just as it is opening.’
Photograph: Joanna Rimmer
Market Closes for July 17^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44484.49	+229.71
		+0.52%
S&P 500	6297.36	+33.66
		+0.54%
NASDAQ	20885.65	+155.16
		+0.75%
TSX	27386.93	+233.96
		+0.86%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39901.19	+237.79
		+0.60%
HANG SENG	24498.95	-18.81
		-0.08%
SENSEX	82259.24	-375.24
		-0.45%
FTSE 100*	8972.64	+46.09
		+0.52%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.567	3.581
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.878	3.890
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4513	4.4553
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0072	5.0104

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7277	0.7305
US $	1.3741	1.3689

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5964	0.6264
US $	1.1617	0.8608

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3323.80	3345.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.54	66.38

Market Commentary:
In the end, all business operations can be reduced to three words: people, product, and profits. -Lee Iacocca, 1924-2019.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.9%, or 233.96 to 27,386.93 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1% on May 2.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 119 of 213 shares rose, while 92 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.2%. Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 11.4%.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended May 16
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.39t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.26% compared with 5.84% in the previous session and the average of 6.13% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 101.1218| 3.8| 8/1
Financials | 90.6641| 1.0| 19/6
Consumer Staples | 26.0712| 2.6| 5/5
Energy | 14.5800| 0.3| 27/13
Consumer Discretionary | 12.7477| 1.4| 8/1
Industrials | 2.4301| 0.1| 16/13
Real Estate | 0.6220| 0.1| 6/12
Health Care | 0.0618| 0.1| 2/1
Utilities | -0.3762| 0.0| 7/8
Communication Services | -3.1100| -0.5| 2/3
Materials | -10.8472| -0.3| 19/29
Shopify | 85.9000| 6.2| 35.6| 13.9
Brookfield Corp | 36.5900| 4.1| 45.9| 13.4
Couche-Tard | 30.8600| 8.3| 359.6| -7.2
Fairfax Financial | -4.9620| -1.4| -3.4| 20.7
Enbridge | -5.0280| -0.5| -10.7| 0.9
Barrick Mining | -5.2880| -1.5| 14.3| 28.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange moved higher Thursday afternoon, closing at a fresh record even as trade-war woes continue after U.S. President Donald Trump said he aims to put tariffs of 10% or 15% on over 150 countries.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 233.37 points at 27,386.34, topping the previous high, set Monday, of 27,198.85.
Most sectors were up, with Information Technology and Financials the biggest gainers, rising 7.6% and 5.9%, respectively, while Telecoms was the biggest decliner on the day, down 0.7%.
Scotiabank economists, including Jean-Francois Perrault, said recent data and fiscal announcements in both Canada and the United States suggest slightly stronger economic growth than previously expected, although both economies are still projected to expand below their potential due to trade uncertainty.
They added that inflation pressures are likely to prevent central banks from cutting rates, so Scotiabank is maintaining its view that both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate changes for the rest of the year.
“Our forecast does not reflect recent trade pronouncements in the U.S. We will wait until policies take effect before reflecting those in our forecasts.
There is simply too much uncertainty about the way forward on trade to build those into our forecasts now,” the economists said.
In Canada, growth appears more resilient than anticipated.
Job creation was strong in June and existing home sales have been rising, suggesting some recovery in the housing market.
“This is not to say the economy is strong, it remains weak across a broad range of indicators, but on balance, the economy is less weak than we had earlier assumed,” they said.
Trade talks remain a key factor in the outlook, but the latest threat to raise tariffs on non-CUSMA exports to the United States from 25% to 35% would likely have only a limited overall impact on the Canadian economy if implemented, they added.
In the US, while trade-related risks remain unresolved, fiscal policy from the recent “One Big Beautiful” budgetary law offers some stimulus.
However, this poses challenges for inflation management and fiscal sustainability.
Political tensions around Federal Reserve Chair Powell add to financial market uncertainty.
“For the moment, the US economy is weakening less rapidly, and equity markets have been stronger than expected, as is the case in Canada.
We have revised up our forecasts for growth modestly this year and next, with growth of around 1.5 per cent this year and next now expected.
The outlook continues to reflect negative impacts of tariffs and policy uncertainty, which, as noted above, could lead to downward revisions to growth once there is more clarity about the policy environment,” the economists said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Thursday, pushed up by tightening supply and haven buying on renewed Middle East violence.
WTI oil for August delivery closed US$1.16 to settle at US$67.54 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up $0.80 to US$69.32.
Gold traded lower on Thursday as the dollar moved up after U.S. retail sales rose above expectations last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$16.30 to US$3.342.80 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Signs that the world’s largest economy is holding up lifted stocks a day after speculation about the fate of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rattled markets.
The dollar climbed.
Short-dated bonds fell.
The crypto industry got a major win after Congress passed the stablecoin bill.
Economically sensitive shares outperformed after solid retail sales and a drop in jobless claims, with the S&P 500 briefly topping 6,300 and closing at an all-time high.
The Russell 2000 gauge of small firms rose 1.2%.
Tech rallied as a bullish outlook from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. bolstered confidence in artificial-intelligence spending.
In late hours, Netflix Inc. reported strong earnings and raised its forecast.
After a brief pause, the greenback resumed its advance for July – which is set to be its best month in 2025.
Treasury two- year yields rose while those on 30-year bonds were little changed.
Money markets continued to price fewer than two Fed rate cuts this year.
US retail sales saw a broad advance in June, tempering concerns about a retrenchment in consumer spending.
Meantime, applications for US unemployment benefits declined for a fifth straight week to the lowest since mid-April, showing a resilient job market.
“As long as the economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low, then people will continue to spend and the flywheel can keep generating higher profits, which is the engine for higher stock prices,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
To Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group, consumers seem to be over the tariff shock in April and are back at it with spending.
“Now we just need to see if the Federal Reserve has enough inflation data to communicate more clearly that September will restart the rate cutting cycle,” he said.
“The consumer came back to life in June. Other data like initial jobless claims and Philly Fed also painted the picture of a strong economy,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“While it’s good for growth overall, it makes it harder to justify rate cuts.”
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it’s reasonable for policymakers to plan on two rate cuts this year, emphasizing that the central bank should not wait too long before moving.
Meantime, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said officials should keep holding rates steady “for some time,” citing accelerating inflation as tariffs start to boost prices.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% in June after declines in the prior two months.
Meantime, the control-group sales — which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — rose 0.5%, rounding out the first half of the year on a strong note.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, while retail sales beat estimates, enthusiasm ought to be tempered somewhat given the pick-up in consumer goods prices over the month.
At Bloomberg Economics, Estelle Ou says that given price increases in several goods categories, it’s difficult to untangle whether most of the rebound is due to price increases or solid underlying demand.
She thinks the former is more likely, given low business sentiment and signs of weakness in other discretionary services spending.
“A reassuring retail sales result comes at the perfect time as earnings season kicks into gear,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“In the last earnings go-around, management reassured investors that consumer trends were solid through April and May.
However, there was a worry that consumer spending was beginning to weaken after back-to-back declines in retail sales.”
If earnings are more upbeat than expected and if management continues to tell a reassuring story about consumer spending, stocks could react favorably — even after a rally to record highs that some investors may view as overextended, Kenwell noted.
“If tariffs start to weigh on consumer spending in the months ahead, that could present risks in the second half of the year,” he said.
“For now, though, consumers are still spending — and stocks can continue to rally, particularly if earnings reflect continued underlying strength in America’s largest engine: the consumer.”
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says he sees a bull market building in stocks.
But first the S&P 500 may drop 5% to 10% this quarter as the impact of trade policies gets reflected on corporate balance sheets.
He thinks the decline will be short lived, giving investors an attractive entry point to a rally driven by improving earnings expectations.
Relative calm prevailed a day after markets were jolted by speculation over Powell’s future before President Donald Trump downplayed the prospect of replacing him.
Still, George Saravelos at Deutsche Bank AG says concern about the Fed chairman being removed will continue to linger over markets and put pressure on the dollar and Treasuries until it is resolved.
Saravelos said this month that, if Trump were to force Powell out, the subsequent 24 hours would probably see a drop of at least 3% to 4% in the trade-weighted dollar, as well as a 30 to 40 basis point fixed-income selloff.
The idea that the Fed operates free from political pressures is a “myth” and US stocks are likely to keep soaring on bets that rate cuts are coming, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Ilan Benhamou.
Kevin Warsh, a candidate to be the next Fed chair, said independence for the central bank is “essential.”
But, he added, the Fed under Powell has strayed into policy areas where it lacks authority.
“History tells us that the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy are essential,” Warsh said Thursday in an interview on CNBC.
“But that doesn’t mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does.”

Corporate Highlights:
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. said the second half of the year has become more predictable and suggested it may be able to beat its earnings targets.
* International growth helped buoy PepsiCo Inc.’s second quarter earnings, as the snacks and beverage giant said it plans to lean into higher-protein offerings and smaller portion sizes.
* Amazon.com Inc. is cutting jobs in its cloud-computing division, the latest big tech company to pare its headcount amid rising costs for artificial intelligence.
* T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is making a business-wide round of job cuts as the Baltimore-based asset manager grapples with outflows and other pressures.
* General Electric Co. boosted its full-year financial guidance and topped Wall Street’s profit estimates for the second quarter after rebounding demand in the aviation market softened the impact of a global trade war.
* Chevron Corp. is on the cusp of reaching a production plateau in the largest US oil field, allowing it to reap billions of dollars of additional cash flow in the next few years.
* Meta Platforms Inc. investors say they have reached a settlement with current and former directors at the company to end a multibillion-dollar case in Delaware.
* Uber Technologies Inc. is teaming up with electric vehicle maker Lucid Group Inc. and self-driving tech startup Nuro Inc. to launch a robotaxi fleet.
* Waymo is more than doubling its service territory in Austin as the driverless taxi firm looks to fend off competition from Tesla Inc.
* U.S. Bancorp reported net interest income that missed estimates in the first earnings report under new Chief Executive Officer Gunjan Kedia.
* ManpowerGroup Inc. posted quarterly profit and revenue that beat estimates and indicated the global labor market is stabilizing.
* Elevance Health Inc. cut its profit guidance for the year on higher medical costs in Affordable Care Act plans and lagging reimbursement from Medicaid, the latest in a series of disappointments from health insurers in recent months.
* Roblox Corp. is adding new safety features, including an age- estimation tool that relies on video selfies, to better protect its kid-heavy user base.
* Abbott Laboratories shares sank after the company lowered the top end of its full-year guidance.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1598
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3417
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 148.59 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $119,038.4
* Ether rose 1% to $3,414.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.67%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.66%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.91%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 5.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.9% to $67.61 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,339.90 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
People won’t have time for you if you’re always angry or complaining.-Stephen Hawking, 1942-2018.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 16, 1945: Atomic bomb tested.
July 16, 1969: Apollo 11 blasted off from Cape Kennedy on the first manned mission to the moon. Go to article.

On this day in 1997, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 8000 for the first time, just five months after breaking the 7000 mark.  As I write this, the Dow is currently at 44147.

July 16, 1934: Commuter service by seaplane begins from Oyster Bay, Long Island, to Pier II at the foot of Wall Street.

Joshua Reynolds, artist, b.1723.
Roald Amundson, explorer, b. 1872.
Ginger Rogers, dancer/actress, b. 1911.
Will Ferrell, actor, b. 1967.

Man smashes case holding Scotland’s Stone of Destiny
The suspect, who is from Australia, has been charged with “malicious mischief.”

Archaeologists unearth giant shoes near Hadrian’s Wall
The ancient shoes are calling into question what we know about Roman soldiers. 

When a chance encounter on vacation becomes a lifelong adventure
A 23-year-old librarian said she felt a “thunderbolt” when she first locked eyes with a tall, handsome yacht captain while on vacation. 

Canadian kindness breaks the internet   An ad promoting tourism in Canada has gone viral for its compassion.

‘I was floored by the data’: Psilocybin shows anti-aging properties in early study.

The psychedelic psilocybin, found in magic mushrooms, slows certain hallmarks of aging in human cells and older mice, a lab study suggests. Read More.

4,000-year-old human rib discovered high in the Pyrenees still has an arrowhead from a brutal attack
A human rib discovered high in the Pyrenees suggests that someone survived a shot in the back several millennia ago. Read More.

‘Interstellar visitor’ 3I/ATLAS could be the oldest comet ever seen — and could grow a spectacular tail later this year
New simulations have narrowed down where the newly discovered interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS likely came from, revealing it could be more than 3 billion years older than the solar system. Read More.

Penny-sized laser could help driverless cars see the world so much clearer
Researchers have created an ultrasensitive laser the size of a penny that could improve lidar technology, boosting autonomous vehicles in the process. Read More.

Giant space ‘boulders’ unleashed by NASA’s DART mission aren’t behaving as expected, revealing hidden risks of deflecting asteroids
Debris released from the asteroid Dimorphos during NASA’s DART mission has a higher momentum and less random distribution than expected, which “changes the physics we need to consider when planning these types of missions,” researchers say. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Toulouse, France
The peloton cycles past the Place du Capitole during the 11th stage of the 112th edition of the Tour de France
Photograph: Loïc Venance/AFP/Getty Images

Near Whitby, North Yorkshire‘
This field of phacelia (grown as a soil stabiliser) provided one of the many colours of summer in the Yorkshire countryside.’
Photograph: Ian Maggiore

Flamborough, East Riding of Yorkshire
‘I went early to North Landing hoping to catch a sunrise. It was a bit bland until the early morning sun lit up the chalk cliffs. I placed the boats against the light for the view.’
Photograph: David Eberlin
Market Closes for July 16^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44254.78	+231.49
		+0.53%
S&P 500	6263.70	+19.94
		+0.32%
NASDAQ	20730.49	+52.69
		+0.25%
TSX	27152.97	+98.83
		+0.37%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39663.40	-14.62
		-0.04%
HANG SENG	24517.76	-72.36
		-0.29%
SENSEX	82634.48	+63.57
		+0.8%
FTSE 100*	8926.55	-11.77
		-0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.581	3.601
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.890	3.897
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4553	4.4813
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0104	5.0198

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7305	0.7288
US $	1.3689	1.3721

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5931	0.6277
US $	1.1638	0.8592

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3345.10	3351.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.38	66.98

Market Commentary:
A company cannot look only at turnover and profits.  There is something called reputation, and that is worth just as much as and maybe even more –
than the numbers. -Guiseppe Lavazza, b. 1965.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 27,152.97 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.0%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.6%.
Today, 98 of 213 shares rose, while 113 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on July 15, 2025 and 25.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.38t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.84% compared with 5.95% in the previous session and the average of 6.13% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 65.0500| 2.5| 8/2
Consumer Staples | 6.4732| 0.7| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 5.4301| 0.6| 5/4
Communication Services | 1.8964| 0.3| 3/2
Health Care | -0.0638| -0.1| 1/2
Real Estate | -0.2396| 0.0| 8/10
Utilities | -0.2799| 0.0| 9/6
Industrials | -7.0714| -0.2| 17/12
Materials | -22.7428| -0.6| 10/38
Energy | -28.1105| -0.7| 9/30
Volume VS Shopify | 53.3000| 4.0| 16.7| 7.3
Brookfield Corp | 31.5700| 3.6| -22.2| 9.0
RBC | 12.6500| 0.7| 29.6| 4.2
Suncor | -4.6330| -1.0| -47.4| 4.4
Nutrien | -7.4730| -2.7| 4.7| 24.4
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.3690| -1.5| -37.9| -4.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose nearly 100 points as Canada reportedly looks to implement new measures to support its steel industry in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade disputes.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 98.83 points to close at 27,152.97.
Information Technology and Financial were the biggest gainers, rising 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, while Energy was bottom of the list, down 2.9%.
RBC economist Rachel Battaglia, in her insight report about Canada’s job market, said that recent trade tensions have made existing weaknesses in Canada’s labor market worse.
After briefly improving in late 2024 and early 2025, the unemployment rate is rising again, while job vacancies continue to fall.
Although June showed a small improvement from May, it’s unlikely the jobless rate has peaked yet, she added. This trend isn’t new.
Unemployment has been increasing for nearly three years, however, the factors behind today’s job market are quite different.
After the pandemic, unemployment mostly reflected challenges new workers, like recent graduates and newcomers, faced in finding jobs.
Now, while permanent layoffs haven’t jumped much compared to a year ago, people are taking longer to find work.
There are also clearer signs of job losses in industries that depend on international trade, Battaglia said.
“Manufacturing, primary resources, transportation and warehousing, and certain services outside of public administration1 have borne the brunt of recent
employment declines. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy appears to be driving much of the weakness, but other factors like fluctuating commodity prices and a slowdown in homebuilding are likely intensifying these challenges,” she said.
Economic uncertainty is pushing some retirees back into the job market, as unstable stock markets are causing financial stress, especially for those on fixed incomes.
This trend is reflected in the recent rise in job searches by people aged 55 and older who had recently retired, the report added.
Jason Daw, head of North American rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said, “Canada has demonstrated surprising economic resilience” with job and housing markets stabilizing after earlier weakness tied to tariff risks.
Fiscal support is also expected to continue.
With core inflation staying close to 3%, RBC believes the Bank of Canada has likely ended its rate cuts at 2.75%.
In the United States, ongoing trade uncertainty, a surprisingly steady job market, and a cautious Federal Reserve have led RBC to push its forecast for the first interest rate cut to December, with rates gradually falling to 3% by mid-2026, he added.
While neither central bank is expected to change rates in the near term, future Fed cuts could lead to a wider interest rate gap between Canada and the US in the coming months, Daw said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped for a third session on Wednesday, even as a report showed U.S. inventories fell last week.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.14 to settle at US$65.38 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.02 to US$68.69.
Gold traded higher late afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar fell after a report showed U.S. wholesale prices remained steady last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$18.10 to US$3,354.80 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Speculation about the fate of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set off a short-lived tempest in financial markets Wednesday, with volatility mostly quelled after President Donald Trump said he has no plans to fire the central bank chief and was only discussing it in “concept.”
The S&P 500 bounced as Trump said he is “not planning on doing anything” to remove Powell, after a White House official said the president was likely to seek the Fed Chair’s ouster soon.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, slid five basis points to 3.89%.
The dollar halted a four-day advance.
Softer-than-estimated inflation data also helped fuel the moves on Wednesday, reinforcing bets on Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Anyone hoping to discern from today’s market action how investors would treat Powell’s firing have a litany of moving parts to consider.
While the initial reaction was relatively modest, traders may have simply cast the episode as the latest political theater.
Framed as rhetorical pressure than an imminent rupture in Fed leadership, the trading action may therefore provide a poor proxy for how Wall Street would react if Trump actually removed Powell — a prospect that strategists warn would rattle global markets.
“After the president’s subsequent backing off on remarks to remove Powell, the immediate crisis may have passed, though we doubt we are entirely done with this saga,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, a decision to fire the Fed chief would negatively impact markets as concerns around central bank independence would be at “the forefront of investors’ minds.”
The president’s remarks in the Oval Office left open the possibility of ousting Powell for cause.
Trump and his allies have lambasted the Fed chair over the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady and the cost of the central bank’s renovations of its Washington headquarters.
“The decision to fire Powell would have to make its way through the courts because he can only be fired for cause, and they have to determine if the cost overruns on the new Fed building are grounds for that,” he added.
“And now that Trump says he’s ‘not planning’ to fire Powell we have to wonder if the first story was a trial balloon to see how markets would react,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
At Academy Securities, Peter Tchir said that he’s been arguing that Trump has been emboldened after a series of “wins” – which might encourage him on this.
“But possibly more importantly, would be a sign that tariff policy is going to be more aggressive than market current thinks,” Tchir added.
“Markets are unlikely to look kindly on attempts to forcibly remove Chair Powell from office and threaten Fed independence,” said TD Securities strategists including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg.
They view such an action as a low-probability, but high- impact event.
“We would expect markets to price in higher long-run inflation, higher term premium, more near-term Fed rate cuts (and hence lower front-end rates), increased market volatility, and a steeper yield curve,” they added.
The yield gap between 5- and 30-year Treasuries hit the highest since 2021.
President Trump has repeatedly assailed Fed chair Powell as the central bank has held off on cutting rates amid concern that tariffs may spur inflation.
And in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested Powell should step down from the central bank’s board when his term as chair is up in May 2026.
The Fed’s continued independence is “absolutely critical,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said on a conference call Tuesday.
That just doesn’t mean under Powell, whom Dimon said he respects, but also for whomever eventually succeeds him.
Meddling with the Fed “can often have adverse consequences,” Dimon said.
A Trump’s dismissal of Powell would be an underpriced risk that could trigger a selloff in the dollar and Treasuries, Deutsche Bank AG’s George Saravelos recently said.
If Trump were to force Powell out, the subsequent 24 hours would probably see a drop of at least 3% to 4% in the trade- weighted dollar, as well as a 30 to 40 basis point fixed-income selloff, Saravelos said.
The greenback and bonds would carry a “persistent” risk premium, he said, adding that investors may also grow anxious about the potential politicization of the Fed’s swap lines with other central banks.
“Investors would likely interpret such an event as a direct affront to Fed independence, putting the central bank under extreme institutional duress,” Saravelos said.
“With the Fed sitting at the pinnacle of the global dollar monetary system, it is also stating the obvious that the consequences would reverberate far beyond US borders.”
Meantime, US economic activity “increased slightly” between late May and early July, the Fed said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.
The report also said that “uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses.”
“Overall business activity was up in the last month, but the outlook was slightly more pessimistic,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“We should be watchful for signs of margin compression at the business level, financial stress via rising delinquency rates, and a sluggish housing market as inventories rise.”
Earlier Wednesday, data showed the producer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, after an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May.
US wholesale prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the least since September.
“Disinflation remains, but the Fed will be undeterred in keeping rates steady until September,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“As long as the labor market remains strong and resilient, rates aren’t likely to move meaningfully lower.”
Money markets project a 56% chance of a cut in September, with the next reduction fully priced in by the October meeting.

Corporate Highlights:
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s stock traders posted the largest revenue haul in Wall Street history, as volatility sparked by the Trump administration’s trade war spurred a second straight record quarter for the unit.
* Morgan Stanley’s stock traders scored their best second quarter on record as the biggest US banks continue to reap the benefits of market volatility tied to President Donald Trump’s policy moves.
* Bank of America Corp.’s traders posted a record second quarter as the company reaped the benefits of volatile markets and net interest income topped analysts’ estimates.
* PNC Financial Services Group beat expectations for second- quarter net interest income, helped by an increase in loan growth.
** The bank is considering charging financial-technology companies for access to valuable customer data, following the lead of JPMorgan Chase & Co., Chief Executive Officer Bill Demchak said.
* ASML Holding NV Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet walked back his forecast that sales will grow next year, blaming trade disputes and global tensions.
* Tesla Inc. is preparing to launch a longer, six-seat version of its Model Y sport utility vehicle in China, where the carmaker has been losing ground to domestic manufacturers with fresher lineups.
* Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, is in discussions to lease data center capacity in Saudi Arabia, according to people familiar with the matter, part of an effort to expand its infrastructure in regions offering cheap energy and political goodwill.
* Nvidia Corp. boss Jensen Huang anticipates getting the first batch of US licenses to export H20 AI chips to China soon, formally allowing the company to resume sales of a much sought- after component to the world’s top semiconductor arena.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google will debut new Pixel-branded hardware at an event on Aug. 20 in New York, with the lineup expected to include several smartphones and a smartwatch, all powered by the company’s artificial intelligence technology.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. is creating a new strategy committee and agreed to work with Elliott Investment Management on ways to help the software company boost value.
* Johnson & Johnson beat Wall Street’s quarterly sales expectations and raised its full-year outlook, a show of confidence as the pharmaceutical industry faces the dual threats of tariffs and a crackdown on drug pricing.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.4%
* KBW Bank Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1635
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3416
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $119,181.06
* Ether rose 11% to $3,378.09
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.64%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.89%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 5.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $66.71 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,347.94 an ounce

–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
It is not the mountain we conquer but ourselves. –Sir Edmund Hillary, 1919-2008.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: St. Swithin’s Day, England.

July 15, 2006: Twitter launches as a microblogging service, sparking a new era of social media communication.
July 15, 2010: BP stopped the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico after 85 days using a 75-ton cap lowered onto the well earlier in the week.

Rembrandt, artist, b. 1606.

Unreleased Beyoncé music stolen in Atlanta
Hard drives containing the tunes — and several other items — were taken from a vehicle rented by the singer’s choreographer.

German tourist describes how she got lost in the Outback
Carolina Wilga, 26, also said she was “beyond grateful to have survived” her ordeal and thanked the people who searched for her.

AMC offers 50% off ticket prices on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
Will such deep discounts bring audiences back to the theater and help revive the movie industry?

Neil Diamond gives surprise performance
Theatergoers attending the show, “The Neil Diamond Musical: A Beautiful Noise,” in Los Angeles last weekend were thrilled when the man himself led an impromptu sing-along.

1,800+: That’s how many earthquakes have shaken a remote Japanese island in the past three weeks. 

100 undiscovered galaxies may be orbiting the Milky Way, supercomputer simulations hint
Our Milky Way could have many more satellite galaxies than we’ve detected so far. They’re just too faint to be seen. Read More.

Archaeologists discover that parties 11,000 years ago were BYOB — bring your own boar
Humans have feasted since the dawn of agriculture — but a new find suggests the practice of bringing exotic food to a communal gathering is even older. Read More.

Grand Canyon Dragon wildfire burns down historic lodge and triggers toxic gas leak
Firefighters are battling a lightning-caused wildfire on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon. The Dragon Bravo Fire has burned down the Grand Canyon Lodge and triggered a chlorine gas leak. Read More.

Missed Prime Day? These camera, telescope and binocular deals are still live — just in time for the Perseids and Sturgeon moon
We’ve rounded up the best camera deals from Sony, Nikon, Canon and more — save $$$’s on your next mirrorless or DSLR camera. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Carnew, Ireland
Blarney Castle features on a knitted map of Ireland. The 12ft by 11ft work took four years of knitting and crocheting to complete
Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

Faraya, Lebanon
‘I recently went on a trip to photograph the beauty of Lebanon, a country often seen through the lens of conflict. I captured the stunning moment of the setting sun above the clouds while up in the mountains. It felt like I was photographing the soul of Lebanon.’
Photograph: Nader Kasfy

Grenoble, France
‘I took this in my kitchen. White light from a laptop screen is polarised and when any plastic is seen through a polarising filter, you get colours like this coming from the stress.’
Photograph: Robert Cubitt
Market Closes for July 15^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44023.29	-436.36
		-0.98%
S&P 500	6243.76	-24.80
		-0.40%
NASDAQ	20677.80	+37.47
		+0.18%
TSX	27054.14	-144.71
		-0.53%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39678.02	+218.40
		+0.55%
HANG SENG	24590.12	+386.80
		+1.60%
SENSEX	82570.91	+317.45
		+0.39%
FTSE 100*	8938.32	-59.74
		-0.66%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.601	3.518
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.897	3.834
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4813	4.4333
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0198	4.9770

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7288	0.7297
US $	1.3721	1.3704

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5921	0.6281
US $	1.1603	0.8618

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3351.15	3352.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.98	68.45

Market Commentary:
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. –Dr. Milton Friedman, 1912-2006.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 27,054.14 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on June 25 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%.
Richelieu Hardware Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 3.3%.
Today, 152 of 213 shares fell, while 58 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.4t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.95% compared with 5.64% in the previous session and the average of 6.15% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -48.7410| -0.5| 5/20
Information Technology | -27.3368| -1.0| 3/7
Materials | -23.9688| -0.7| 15/33
Industrials | -16.7779| -0.5| 8/21
Consumer Staples | -13.3084| -1.3| 0/10
Energy | -9.1464| -0.2| 14/24
Consumer Discretionary | -8.9188| -1.0| 0/9
Real Estate | -2.0930| -0.4| 4/15
Health Care | -0.0309| 0.0| 1/2
Communication Services | 2.2176| 0.4| 2/3
Utilities | 3.3714| 0.3| 6/8
Shopify | -17.7900| -1.3| -16.8| 3.2
RBC | -12.6500| -0.7| 70.0| 3.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -8.7840| -1.4| -40.0| -3.2
TC Energy | 2.7610| 0.6| -35.7| -0.4
Brookfield Renewable Partners | 3.2730| 6.3| 124.7| 13.8
Cameco | 3.2860| 1.1| 21.2| 40.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell off a record high on Tuesday following the release of June inflation by the United States and Canada.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 144.71 points at 27,054.14, dropping off Monday’s record close of 27,198.85.
Sectors were mostly down.
Financial and Information Technology led the decliners, falling 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively.
Utilities topped the gainers, up 1.7%.
Statistics Canada reported Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% annualized in June, up from 1.7% in May, but under the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the June CPI rose 2.7% annualized, meeting expectations but up from May’s 2.4 rate.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 2.9% last month, up from 2.8% in May.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said the reliability of U.S. inflation data is “highly questionable,” arguably at the worst possible time for markets.
He added that there are two key reasons for this.
First, the seasonal adjustment applied to June’s core CPI data appears to have artificially suppressed the inflation reading.
The unadjusted core CPI increase for June was among the largest ever for that month, yet the seasonal adjustment factor used was the lowest on record for any June.
This kind of calculation is heavily influenced by recent trends and pandemic-era distortions, many of which are now outdated, he said.
Second, the share of the CPI basket based on estimated or proxy prices rather than actual collected data has reached 35%, up from 30% in recent months and more than double the previous record set during the height of the pandemic.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics attributes this to budget cuts under the Trump administration, which reduced the agency’s ability to collect in-person pricing data, Holt said.
“Proving that this distorts CPI is impossible, but it would stand to reason that one should be extremely guarded toward the quality of the data when so much of the basket is being inferred and will never be revised since the data has fundamentally gone AWOL,” he added.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said while core inflation rose slightly less than forecast at 0.23% month-over-month, it was enough to push the year-over-year core rate to 2.9%.
“There was evidence of tariff price pass through with core goods accelerating, and this particularly apparent in the ex-used cars and trucks measure,” he added.
Looking ahead, Macquarie expects core inflation to stay elevated through the end of the year as tariff effects continue.
The firm also expects the upcoming core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation reading to be on the firmer side, with more clarity expected from tomorrow’s Producer Price Index release.
“Our view on Fed policy remains unchanged with these data. We continue to expect 25 bps in easing ahead in 2025 and a further 25 bps in 2026. Our baseline timing for the first cut is December,” Doyle said.
In connection with Canada’s CPI, he said the data is likely to give the Bank of Canada some pause after the moderation in May.
He added that inflation is expected to cool unevenly.
Higher unemployment and slower private sector wage growth should help, as will easing shelter costs due to slower population growth.
A stronger Canadian dollar could also reduce pressure from import prices.
Because of today’s data and last week’s jobs report, Macquarie now sees just two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, with the next likely in October, Doyle said.
The firm previously expected three cuts, starting in July.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declined to impose fresh sanctions on Russian oil exports, giving the country 50 days to end its war on Ukraine before imposing secondary tariffs on buyers of the country’s oil.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed US$0.46 to settle at US$66.52 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.45 to US$68.76.
Gold traded lower midafternoon on Tuesday along with the dollar after U.S consumer prices rose as expected in June.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$22.60 to US$3.336.50 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Relatively tame inflation data failed to ease Wall Street’s worries about the impacts of tariffs, with initial rallies in stocks and bonds sputtering on bets the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for now.
Tech shares jumped on news Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will resume some chip sales to China, with traders also parsing results from banks.
The S&P 500 retreated after earlier topping 6,300.
A gauge of US financial giants sank as Wells Fargo & Co. cut its guidance for net interest income.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped even as investment bankers eked out a surprise gain.
Citigroup Inc. hit the highest since 2008 on a stock-buyback plan.
While short-dated Treasuries led losses, longer maturities also slid – with 30-year yields topping 5%.
The dollar rose 0.4%.
Underlying US inflation rose by less than expected for a fifth month in June even as the details signaled companies are beginning to pass some tariff-related costs more meaningfully to consumers.
Traders priced in somewhat lower odds that the Fed will cut rates more than once this year, and the probability of a move in September is now seen as only slightly higher than 50%.
“The big question for the inflation picture is tariffs. It’s taking some time for tariffs to show up in the data, but it’s highly likely that a tariff-driven inflation reckoning is coming,” said Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital.
“The Fed will want to watch the next several inflation and jobs reports before it makes any moves on rates.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Fed Chair Jerome Powell should step down from the board when his term is up in May 2026.
Asked whether President Donald Trump has asked Bessent himself to serve as Fed chair, the Treasury chief said, “I am part of the decision-making process.”
He noted that “it’s President Trump’s decision, and it will move at his speed.”
The consumer price index, excluding the often-volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from May.
While a decline in car prices helped keep a lid on the figure, goods categories exposed to Trump’s levies including toys and appliances rose at the fastest paces in years.
To Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, inflation has begun to show the first signs of tariff pass- through.
While services inflation continues to moderate, the acceleration in tariff-exposed goods is likely the first of greater price pressures to come, she said.
“While any tariff-induced boost to inflation is likely to be short-lived, with higher tariffs being announced, it would be wise for the Fed to remain on the sidelines for a few more months at least,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
At Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Kay Haigh notes that while underlying inflation remained muted, price pressures are expected to strengthen — and the July and August CPI reports will be important hurdles to clear.
“For the time being, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode,” Haigh said.
“Should underlying inflation, however, continue to prove benign the path remains open to a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle in the autumn.”
Traders this month have whittled the odds of Fed easing.
Strong June employment data released July 3 led them to rule out a cut after the next meeting concludes July 30 and to downgrade the chances of a September cut, which was fully priced in as recently as late June.
Given recent trade policy developments, the Fed will likely look to stay patient as inflation impacts continue to materialize, according to Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“Today’s report showed the beginning of the tariff passthrough into core goods inflation, and as long as the labor market remains strong, the Fed can afford to wait and see how inflation and inflation expectations evolve over the summer,” they said.
To Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co., despite a firmer core CPI in June relative to May, Fed officials will likely welcome this report – higher tariff related goods inflation justifies their more cautious stance, while continued disinflation across services categories should support rate cuts in September and beyond.
“We believe the fact that inflation is more concentrated in core goods categories will make it easier for the Fed to communicate why they are cutting rates while inflation is above target,” she noted.
“If you believe the economy is hobbling along, then you have a case for thinking price pressures will disappear soon,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“But for now, they’re here, and curious minds may start wandering down the rabbit hole of how far inflation could go.”
Cox says the next few weeks could shift these summer markets into a higher gear.
“It’s time for the bulls to bring the receipts before we settle in for another sleepy August,” she said.
“Eventually, we need to see fundamentals back up these prices.  I’m interested to see if the data can get us there.”
Fund managers have rushed back into risky assets at a record pace on optimism over economic growth and strong corporate profits, according to a monthly survey by Bank of America Corp.
The share of investors taking a higher-than-normal risk level in their portfolios registered the biggest increase over a three-month span going back to 2001, the poll showed.
BofA strategist Michael Hartnett said that he doesn’t expect a big pullback in stocks over the summer, adding that exposure to equities is not yet “extreme” and bond volatility is still low.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has struck a $500 million deal to buy rare-earth minerals from MP Materials Corp., the US producer that just last week secured backing from the Pentagon.
* Tesla Inc. opened its first India showroom, showcasing Model Y cars with a starting price of nearly $70,000, as Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker looks to tap new markets and offset slowing sales where it’s already well established.
* Air taxi startup Joby Aviation Inc. plans to double aircraft output capacity at its main production site in California, just weeks after completing piloted test flights in Dubai.
* CoreWeave Inc., a provider of AI computing power to companies including OpenAI Inc. and Microsoft Corp., said it plans to invest as much as $6 billion to set up a data center in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, as the firm expands its capacity across the US.
* BlackRock Inc.’s revenue and performance fees missed estimates, even as the world’s largest money manager hit a record $12.5 trillion in assets.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s second-quarter profit surpassed analyst expectations as the bank continued to reinvest maturing securities at higher yields, fueling a 9% increase in revenue.
* Uber Technologies Inc. and Baidu Inc. plan to launch robotaxis on the ride-sharing platform in several markets outside of the US and mainland China through a multiyear partnership.
* Georgia regulators approved a plan that opens the door for Southern Co. to boost spending by as much as $15 billion to deliver a projected surge of electricity for data centers, new factories and electric vehicles.
* Albertsons Cos. raised its sales forecast for the full year but left its earnings outlook unchanged amid pressure on margins.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2%
* KBW Bank Index fell 2.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1601
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3386
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 148.86 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.1% to $116,443.69
* Ether rose 1.3% to $3,043.13
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $66.69 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,330.65 an ounce

–With assistance from Julien Ponthus.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives.  It’s what we do consistently. –Tony Robbins, b. 1960.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Bastille Day today.
July 14, 1789: Storming of the Bastille occurs in Paris, symbolizing the start of the French Revolution.
On July 13, 1977, a 25-hour blackout hit the New York City area after lightning struck upstate power lines. Go to article.

Isaac Bashevis Singer, writer, b. 1904.
Woody Guthrie, musician, b. 1912.
Gerald Ford, 38^th President, b. 1913.
Ingmar Bergman, director, b. 1918

Collapse of key Atlantic currents may be held off by newly-discovered back-up system, study finds
Rising temperatures in the North Atlantic are slowing vital currents, but a new process in the Arctic could save the day, scientists say.  Read More.

Ancient Egyptian rock art discovered near Aswan may be from the dawn of the first dynasty
Newfound rock art from ancient Egypt may shed light on the time just before the first dynasty. Read More.

The Perseids are coming — here’s how to watch the glorious meteor shower before the moon ruins the show
As many as 100 “shooting stars” per hour can be visible, but a bright moon on the peak of the Perseids on Aug. 12 and 13 means evasive action is required. Read More.

Experimental treatment for high cholesterol edits DNA in the body to reduce LDL
An experimental treatment called VERVE-102 lowers the amount of “bad” cholesterol in the blood of people with specific cholesterol-raising conditions. Read More.

Japan sets new internet speed record — it’s 4 million times faster than average US broadband speeds
A team of scientists in Japan shattered the record for the fastest internet speed by developing new fiber optics. Read More.

Wimbledon champs crowned
Tennis star Iga Świątek dominated her singles final against American Amanda Anisimova over the weekend. In the men’s division, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner won his first Wimbledon title against two-time reigning champ Carlos Alcaraz.

Guilty pleasure gatherings
“Love Island USA” is hugely popular, especially with Gen Z. But many fans aren’t just watching the reality TV show. They’re showing up for each other.

Craving some ‘SWAG’?
Justin Bieber surprised fans by dropping his first new studio album in four years.

Retire at 83? Nah!
Former Beatle Paul McCartney plans to go back on tour this September.

Man’s best (super)friend
Did you catch the new “Superman” movie over the weekend? If so, you may enjoy reading more about that furry scene stealer, Krypto.

‘Can’t beat the view’ 
Astronauts Nichole Ayers and Anne McClain reveal what life is like aboard the International Space Station.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Your Hand in Mine
Shows a physical process in action (eg aurora, wave motion, volcanism). Standing silently on the tiled siltstone of the ‘tessellated pavement’, this couple watched the immense geomagnetic phenomenon we call the aurora australis exploding in the sky above them. The pavement, comprising 250-280m year old rocks, slowly morphed into patterns that look astoundingly manmade, due to Earth’s movement and jointing combined with continual sea salt erosion.
Photograph: Jordan Cripps

In a new light: an infrared perspective of Australia’s capital – in pictures
Photographer Mick Tsikas has turned his camera capable of capturing hidden infrared light in Canberra. The result underscores how lush the national capital is
Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Nevsehir, Turkey
Hot air balloons take off at sunrise, creating stunning views over the valleys of Cappadocia
Photograph: Behcet Alkan/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 14^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44459.65	+88.14
		+0.20%
S&P 500	6268.56	+8.81
		+0.14%
NASDAQ	20640.33	+54.80
		+0.27%
TSX	27198.85	+175.60
		+0.65%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39459.62	-110.06
		-0.28%
HANG SENG	24203.32	+63.75
		+0.26%
SENSEX	82253.46	-247.01
		-0.30%
FTSE 100*	8998.06	+56.94
		+0.64%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.518	3.500
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.834	3.809
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4333	4.4093
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9770	4.9491

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7297	0.7304
US $	1.3704	1.3691

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5987	0.6255
US $	1.1665	0.8572

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3352.10	3312.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.45	68.45

Market Commentary:
The dollar is our currency but your problem.  –US Treasury Secretary John Connally, 1971.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 27,198.85 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.7% on June 26 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.3%.
Thomson Reuters Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.7%.
Today, 143 of 213 shares rose, while 61 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 25.6% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.64% compared with 5.81% in the previous session and the average of 6.16% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 70.5813| 2.7| 9/0
Energy | 37.0551| 0.9| 27/10
Industrials | 31.1585| 0.9| 22/7
Financials | 26.9665| 0.3| 20/5
Consumer Staples | 6.7661| 0.7| 7/2
Utilities | 4.6678| 0.5| 12/2
Real Estate | 3.9560| 0.8| 18/1
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4984| 0.4| 6/3
Health Care | -0.0041| 0.0| 2/1
Communication Services | -1.1478| -0.2| 1/4
Materials | -7.8776| -0.2| 19/26
Shopify | 55.6000| 4.3| 17.1| 4.5
Thomson Reuters | 19.9100| 7.7| 355.7| 27.2
Enbridge | 14.4700| 1.6| 43.4| 1.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.9780| -0.8| -53.3| -1.8
Canadian National | -5.9530| -1.1| -35.9| -2.5
CIBC | -6.9650| -1.1| -22.1| 8.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a fresh record high on Monday following last week’s announcement of 35% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 175.60 points at 27,198.85, topping the previous high, set Thursday, of 27,082.3.
Information Technology and Industrials led the sectors, rising 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively.
Base Metals was the biggest decliner, down 1.6%.
BMO’s Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski, in his ‘Canadian Strategy Snapshot’ noted that since the market’s recent low in early April, the bank’s models show a clear broadening of performance across Canadian equities.
Notably, valuation and capital usage factors showed a “reversal quarter,” and are now ahead year-to-date-signaling a shift toward a more balanced and rational market environment.
“We expect this dynamic to proceed throughout the remainder of 2025 as the heightened rhetoric and fear-driven melee surrounding tariffs and macro uncertainty continues to abate,” Belski said, adding that investors should stay focused on long-term strategies, particularly GARP-style (growth at a reasonable price) approaches that combine growth, value, and quality.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said markets are showing mild risk-off sentiment to start a busy week, with several potential factors at play.
North American equity futures are slightly lower, down about 0.25% in the U.S. and even less in Canada.
In currencies, the picture is also mixed.
While the U.S. dollar remains strong, other major currencies like the yen, euro, and Canadian dollar are also holding their ground.
The Canadian dollar is likely still benefiting from Friday’s strong jobs report.
Sovereign bond markets are reacting in varied ways, with U.S. and Canadian yields edging higher, while UK gilts and European government bonds are seeing a bull steepening, he added.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Monday on rising supply and the threat of slowing global economies as U.S President Donald Trump renewed his tariff threats.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$1.47 to settle at US$66.98 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down US$1.04 to US$69.32.
Gold edged lower midafternoon on Monday as the dollar rose for a sixth-straight session.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$7.00 to US$3,357.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders parsing Donald Trump’s latest tariff remarks sent stocks mildly higher, with the market gearing up for results from big banks and inflation data.
Bond yields and the dollar edged up.
Oil fell as the US president’s plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine didn’t include new measures aimed directly at hindering Moscow’s energy exports.
The S&P 500 hovered near its record as Trump indicated he’s open to trade talks, even as he insisted the letters threatening new rates are “the deals.”
While Corporate America is bracing for its weakest earnings season since mid-2023, lower estimates could be easier for companies to beat.
As US financial giants kick off earnings season Tuesday, strategists say subdued profit expectations are setting the stage for their sizzling run to continue.
President Trump unleashed more tariff threats this weekend, declaring a 30% rate for Mexico and the European Union, and informing key trading partners of new rates that will kick in on Aug. 1 if they cannot negotiate better terms.
“We view the latest move from the White House as a negotiating tactic and maintain our base case that the US effective tariff rate will settle around 15%, which we believe will allow the S&P 500 to rise further over the coming 12 months,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
A 22V Research survey showed investors see the average effective tariff rate at 17%.
They also estimate tariffs will add 28 basis points to core inflation in 2025.
This is almost half of what was expected last month.
In the run-up to the consumer price index, Treasuries saw mild losses.
After months of seeing little inflation, the CPI probably experienced slightly faster growth in June as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
The moves in bonds also reflected investor concern about governments’ abilities to contain budget deficits.
Bitcoin briefly topped $120,000.
“The stock market’s muted reaction to the latest volley of tariff headlines suggests investors may be growing numb to them or are deciding that the tariff bark will likely be worse than the eventual bite,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
To Emily Bowersock Hill, investors have become inured to the tariff drama, arguably to the point of complacency, and the S&P 500 is now overpriced.
“Absent a negative surprise, we expect the complacency to continue, particularly given the equity market’s upward momentum,” said the founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners.
After months of seeing little inflation, June’s consumer price index probably experienced slightly faster growth as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
“Inflation pressures have remained muted so far, but tariffs will eventually feed through pushing prints higher and creating some discomfort for the Fed,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
Meantime, the survey from 22V Research also showed that 67% of investors think core CPI is on a Fed friendly glide path.
In addition, 42% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk-on,” 29% said “mixed” and 29% “risk-off.”
“I don’t think people are viewing any of the data points expected over this week as being materially indicative of how to position portfolios,” said Josh Rubin at Thornburg Investment Management.
“We’re still in a waiting game around tariff policies as well as additional inflation and employment data that could influence Fed decision-making, and broader geopolitical developments, which are also in a quiet period.”
Rubin notes that activity naturally slows down during the summer period, and while investors will pay attention to earnings, most won’t view them as highly indicative of companies’ future outlooks, rather waiting to hear about any updated thoughts on tariff policy.
“We are not out of the woods just yet, as the next few weeks will be pivotal to see how countries respond to the administration’s new Aug. 1 tariff deadline,” said Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management.
“The big question for markets in the coming weeks is if earnings, which are expected to be solid, can overshadow the tariff issues.”
Investors already expect a sluggish second quarter, so the bigger risk may be to the back half of the year, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Will management again tell a good story about the consumer and its customers, providing some stability (or even upward revisions) to third and fourth-quarter earnings?” he said.
“If so, stocks could react favorably to that development.
If not though, and estimates are instead revised lower, stocks may decline as they reflect this new reality.”
US mega caps are attractive as they’re likely to be boosted by the fiscal spending bill as well as a robust earnings outlook, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
Meantime, RBC Capital Markets strategists including Lori Calvasina lifted their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,250 from 5,730.
The new level “is midway between the median and average of five different models,” they said.
“We still see a wide range of outcomes in our modeling which we think reflects a high degree of uncertainty.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. shareholders will vote on whether to invest in Elon Musk’s xAI, the billionaire said, after the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX agreed to pump $2 billion into the artificial intelligence startup.
* Investigators of the fatal Air India crash last month have found no evidence so far that would require them to take actions over the Boeing Co. 787 aircraft or the GE engines powering it.
* Autodesk Inc. is no longer pursuing an acquisition of PTC Inc., people familiar with the matter said, which would have ranked as one of the year’s largest deals.
* Kenvue Inc. said Chief Executive Officer Thibaut Mongon will leave the company as it continues to revamp the maker of Tylenol, Neutrogena and Listerine brands.
* CoreWeave Inc. is expanding a data center that is projected to double the electricity needs of a city near Dallas, another example of the strains that artificial intelligence workloads are placing on the US power supply.
* Best Buy Co. was downgraded to neutral at Piper Sandler, which cited lack of catalysts and competition.
* Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. was cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which cited “full valuation.”
* Huntington Bancshares Inc. agreed to buy Veritex Holdings Inc., which operates more than 30 bank branches in Texas, for $1.9 billion in an all-stock transaction.
* Chip-design software maker Synopsys Inc. secured China’s approval to buy Ansys Inc., setting the stage to close the $35 billion deal later this week.
* NIQ Global Intelligence Plc is seeking to raise as much as $1.2 billion in a US initial public offering, adding to a rush of summer listings.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4:04 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1669
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3428
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 147.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $119,769.05
* Ether rose 0.1% to $2,996.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.73%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.60%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $66.96 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,344.06 an ounce
Have a lovely day.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Believe and act as if it were impossible to fail. –Charles Kettering, 1876-1958.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com