Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
April 9, 1860: The world’s first recording of the human voice is created.  French inventor Édouard-Léon Scott de Martinville used his phonautograph, the earliest known sound recording device.
1865: U.S. Civil War ends.
1866: Civil Rights Bill passed.
April 9, 2001: American Airlines’ parent company acquired bankrupt Trans World Airlines.  Go to article >>

Charles Baudelaire, writer, b.1821.

The best photos and videos of the April 8 total solar eclipse over North America
Millions of viewers across Mexico and North America witnessed a historic total solar eclipse on April 8. Here are some of the best photos from the day. Read More.

8,200-year-old campsite of ‘Paleo-Archaic’ peoples discovered on US Air Force base in New Mexico
Military personnel on Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico discovered artifacts, hearths and charcoal dating to the Archaic period that pinpoint the site of an early encampment. Read More.

When is the next total solar eclipse in North America?
After the total solar eclipse on April 8, North America will have to wait exactly eight years, 11 months and 22 days for its next glimpse of the sun’s corona. Read More

Thousands of hidden meteorites could be lost forever as they sink in Antarctic ice, taking their cosmic secrets with them
A new study warns that 5,000 meteorites could be sinking beneath Antarctica’s icy surface every year as a result of climate change, depriving scientists of vital information about our solar system. Read More.

Toss it or wash it: Household items that love to harbor bacteria
You may be shocked to learn the not-so-long shelf life of common items in your home. Here are some things you should regularly replace or clean ASAP.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Moshav Mattat, Israel
A fox and a calf approach each other in a forest in the the Upper Galilee
Photograph: Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images

Grindavík, Iceland
The volcano has erupted three times in recent months, sending lava towards a nearby community
Photograph: Marco di Marco/AP

​​​​​​​A view of the eroded type of iceberg
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 9^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38883.67	-9.13
		-0.02%
S&P 500	5209.91	+7.52
		+0.14%
NASDAQ	16306.64	+52.68
		+0.32%
TSX	22361.78	+101.48
		+0.46%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39773.13	+426.09
		+1.08%
HANG SENG	16828.07	+95.22
		+0.57%
SENSEX	74683.70	-58.80
		-0.08%
FTSE 100*	7934.79	-8.68
		-0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.556	3.625
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.472	3.536
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3616	4.4198
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4964	4.5499

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7367	0.7368
US $	1.3574	1.3572

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4739	0.6785
US $	1.0859	0.9209

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2356.10	2320.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.23	86.43

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1867, the U.S. Senate ratified the Alaska Purchase, negotiated by Secretary of State William H. Seward with Russia’s government. For $7.2 million, the U.S. became the new owner of 586,412 square miles of what the public cynically called “Seward’s Icebox.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 22,361.78 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s little change.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%.
BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.4%.
Today, 159 of 224 shares rose, while 61 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 19.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.31% compared with 7.28% in the previous session and the average of 9.69% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 54.2513| 2.1| 46/3
Industrials | 13.7933| 0.4| 18/8
Information Technology | 8.8599| 0.5| 9/1
Communication Services | 8.4556| 1.2| 5/0
Financials | 7.9793| 0.1| 19/7
Real Estate | 6.7263| 1.4| 18/2
Energy | 6.7029| 0.2| 16/25
Utilities | 0.7011| 0.1| 11/4
Consumer Staples | -0.5827| -0.1| 7/4
Consumer Discretionary | -1.2514| -0.2| 8/5
Health Care | -4.1626| -5.7| 2/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 9.9780| 1.2| -55.6| 27.9
Teck Resources | 9.3970| 4.6| 0.4| 19.1
Brookfield Corp | 7.5990| 1.4| -41.2| 5.0
Cameco | -3.6120| -1.8| -22.4| 13.8
Tilray Brands | -3.6870| -20.3| 65.2| -8.8
RBC | -4.6230| -0.3| -32.7| 4.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market rebounded and stocks closed higher, with traders positioning for key inflation data that will help shape the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
Treasuries climbed, with 10-year yields dropping from the highest levels in 2024.
Equities erased losses in the final stretch of New York trading, with Tesla Inc. leading gains in mega-caps.
Nvidia Corp. sank as Intel Corp. unveiled a new version of its artificial-intelligence chip.
Boeing Co. slid on a news report the Federal Aviation Administration is investigating whistleblower claims about safety issues with the 787 Dreamliner.
With no relevant economic data on schedule, traders positioned for Wednesday’s consumer price index.
Markets have been tempering bets on Fed cuts as US economic data remains strong, with officials pushing back against the need for easing.
“Investors are increasingly calling a June pivot into question, given the resiliency of the economy,” said Marta Norton, chief investment officer Americas at Morningstar Wealth.
“A delay is within the range of possible outcomes, particularly if we see March inflation data surprise to the upside.”
The S&P 500 finished above 5,200. US 10-year yields fell six basis points to 4.36%.
Oil dropped as traders assessed diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.
Gold rose to a fresh record.
The loonie underperformed ahead of the Bank of Canada decision on rates amid bets policymakers will turn more dovish.
“CPI is the critical number this week,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “The fear is that CPI has continued to be a thorn in the side of the Fed. But positioning is strongly bearish, and to quote some of the old traders we worked with in the past, ‘whatever hurts the most traders, when they are strongly positioned, is what happens’.”
The US inflation prints for March and April will play an outsized role in determining whether the Fed proceeds to cut rates in June, according to Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“We think the hurdle is not crazy severe and the odds are the data will come in good enough to go ahead,” Guha noted.
The swaps market late Tuesday was pricing in around 65 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of this year.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 53% of the investors think the reaction to CPI Wednesday will be “risk-on.”
“Fifty percent of our survey respondents think inflation is ‘not’ on a Fed-friendly glide path back to target,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V. “In February, the majority thought it was.  The ‘yeses’ have been diminishing. Investors are not worried about Wednesday, but are concerned longer-term.”
To Mohamed El-Erian, the Fed’s longer-run inflation expectations should be revised higher as macro conditions — like supply chains and productivity — evolve.
“Inflation will be sticky,” the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist told Bloomberg Television. “But that shouldn’t stop the Fed, because the 2% inflation target is too tight for a global economy going through a major rewiring.”
Former Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard told Bloomberg Television he’s expecting three rate cuts this year as inflation moves toward the central bank’s target while the economy remains resilient.
“Cut timing hinges on inflation data,” according to Meghan Swiber at Bank of America Corp. “The market will be closely watching core goods and shelter for a read on the forward inflation trajectory.”
While bond yields are likely to remain volatile in the near term as markets shift views on the Fed’s path, UBS’s Chief Investment Office continues to see an attractive risk-reward outlook for quality bonds, including government and investment-grade corporate debt.
“We continue to favor quality bonds in our global portfolios and recommend investors lock in currently attractive bond yields,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We prefer those with maturities in the 1–10-year
bracket and see value in sustainable bonds.”
“Valuations are so stretched right now that anything less than perfection from economic data or any geopolitical noise can create substantial and quick selloffs,” said David Bahnsen at the Bahnsen Group.
Following the recent reset in rate-cut expectations, the setback in stock markets should prove temporary and is a buying opportunity, according to HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner.
“Risk assets certainly got a scare last week,” they wrote.  “We don’t think this will last, though.”
BofA clients were net sellers of US equities last week, with health-care shares logging their biggest outflow in the firm’s data going back to 2008 during the period.
Clients pulled $3.4 billion from US stocks in the week ended April 5, with single stocks seeing their largest exit since July, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall wrote in a note to clients.
To Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler, a more tactical approach toward equities is prudent as we move into the second quarter.
“Although the market has shown some signs of broadening recently, we don’t have enough technical evidence to be convinced that a new leg higher can be sustained,” he noted.
“The combination of high interest rates, sticky inflation, a short-term extended equity market, and mediocre breadth makes the S&P 500 vulnerable to a 5%-10% pullback/correction in upcoming weeks/months.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. deliveries in the first quarter were the lowest since mid-2021, highlighting how far the plane-maker has to go on its road to recovery from a near-catastrophic accident early in January.
* Pfizer Inc.’s RSV shot produced immune reactions in young adults at higher risk of severe illness just as well as in older people, spurring the company’s plans to apply for wider US approval.
* Cisco Systems Inc. was resumed at overweight by Morgan Stanley, which said the maker of computer networking equipment’s  valuation discount is “too harsh.”
* Google unveiled a host of updates to its artificial intelligence offerings for cloud computing customers, emphasizing that the technology is safe and ready for use in the corporate realm, despite recent stumbles in consumer-facing
tools.
* Best Buy Co. is tapping artificial intelligence to speed up and reduce the number of in-home visits, part of the company’s efforts to use the technology to streamline operations.
* A hydro-power plant owned by Enel SpA’s renewable arm Enel Green Power in Northern Italy was rocked by a deadly explosion.

Key events this week:
* Japan PPI, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* US CPI, Fed minutes, Wednesday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
* China PPI, CPI, Thursday
* Eurozone ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Thursday
* Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks, Thursday
* China trade, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo due to report results,  Friday.
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0856
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2675
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.75 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.8% to $68,994.26
* Ether fell 4.7% to $3,514.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.36%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.37%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.03%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $85.34 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,351.04 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If a businessman makes a mistake, he suffers the consequences.  If a bureaucrat makes a mistake, you suffer the consequences. –Ayn Rand, 1905-1982.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Today’s the day – total solar eclipse.

April 8, 1232: First occasion gunpowder used in a major engagement – Mongol army under General Subedei begins the siege of Chinese Jin capital of Kaifeng.
April 8, 2009: Somali pirates hijacked the U.S.-flagged Maersk Alabama. (The crew retook the cargo ship, and Navy sharpshooters killed two pirates holding the ship’s American captain.)   Go to article >>

Buddha’s Birthday, SIDDHARTHA “the enlightened one”.

How and where to watch today’s solar eclipse online for free
On April 8, 2024, a total solar eclipse will be visible across North America and you can watch all the action live from your own home. Read More.

Rare magnitude 4.8 earthquake rocks Northeast, including greater New York area
Magnitude 4.8 and 4.0 earthquakes struck New Jersey and rocked the Northeast last Friday (April 5). Read More.

NASA engineers discover why Voyager 1 is sending a stream of gibberish from outside our solar system
Voyager 1 has been sending a stream of garbled nonsense since November. Now NASA engineers have identified the fault and found a potential workaround. Read More.

March Madness: All eyes on college basketball championship games
The South Carolina Gamecocks won the 2024 NCAA Women’s Basketball national championship Sunday and prevented Caitlin Clark from having the perfect end to her college career. On the men’s side, Purdue and UConn will face off in the championship game later today.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The eclipse over Montreal, Canada.
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Handan, China
People walk under crabapple blossoms in Handan in Hebei province in the north
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Chuao, Venezuela
Cannonball jellyfish (Stomolophus meleagris) are pictured off the coast of Aragua state. Fishers are worried by the proliferation of jellyfishes in the waters of Aragua
Photograph: Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 8^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38892.80	-11.24
		-0.03%
S&P 500	5202.39	-1.95
		-0.04%
NASDAQ	16253.96	+5.44
		+0.03%
TSX	22260.30	-4.08
		-0.02%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39347.04	+354.96
		+0.91%
HANG SENG	16732.85	+8.93
		+0.05%
SENSEX	74742.50	+494.28
		+0.67%
FTSE 100*	7943.47	+32.31
		+0.41%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.625	3.593
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.536	3.520
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4198	4.4016
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5499	4.5528

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7368	0.7360
US $	1.3572	1.3586

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4740	0.6784
US $	1.0861	0.9207

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2320.25	2293.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	86.43	86.91

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1935, Congress made a bid to pull the U.S. out of the Great Depression by creating the Works Progress Administration, or WPA. It went on to employ more than 8 million people.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 22,260.30 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest drop, falling 6.9%.
Today, 102 of 224 shares fell, while 116 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2024 and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.28% compared with 7.46% in the previous session and the average of 9.91% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -15.2158| -0.4| 18/22
Materials | -14.4324| -0.6| 18/28
Information Technology | -12.0042| -0.6| 4/6
Consumer Discretionary | -6.2338| -0.8| 5/8
Health Care | -2.0462| -2.7| 2/2
Communication Services | 1.3108| 0.2| 3/2
Real Estate | 2.2185| 0.4| 19/2
Consumer Staples | 2.4966| 0.3| 7/4
Utilities | 5.4633| 0.7| 7/8
Industrials | 14.2825| 0.5| 14/13
Financials | 20.0764| 0.3| 19/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -10.8900| -1.3| -42.3| -2.1
Dollarama | -5.8400| -2.6| 1.6| 16.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.9510| -0.6| -46.7| 26.3
Bank of Montreal | 5.2230| 0.8| 8.5| 1.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 7.5600| 1.0| -66.3| 14.5
RBC | 8.2620| 0.6| 75.5| 4.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market kicked off the week on the back foot as geopolitical pressures abated and traders positioned for this week’s key inflation data.
Treasury 10-year yields rose to the highest since November and came within a striking distance of the 4.5% level that some investors are watching as a threshold that could determine whether rates will revisit the 2023 highs.
Traders’ conviction on three quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year is quickly dissipating, with markets now favoring just two reductions.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast Wednesday’s consumer price index will show some easing of inflation pressures.
Yet the core gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, would be up 3.7% from a year earlier — above the Fed’s 2% target.
“After Monday’s solar eclipse, US core inflation will determine if the shadow that markets increasingly price over a June rate cut will grow larger or pass by,” said Morgan Stanley strategists including Matthew Hornbach.
Benchmark 10-year yields rose two basis points to 4.42% — after hitting 4.46% earlier Monday.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,200.
Mega-caps were mixed, with Nvidia Corp. down and Tesla Inc. up almost 5%.
Oil fell as Israel said it would remove some troops from Gaza.
Bitcoin topped $71,000.
With some Fed members questioning the wisdom of cutting rates if inflation remains in a “sticky” holding pattern, this week’s inflation figures may have a lot riding on them, according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“While the Fed was hesitant to read too much into back-to-back months of higher-than-expected inflation data, a third month may lead them to change their tune,” he noted.
Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. led by Michael Feroli pushed back their forecast for the first Fed rate cut of the cycle after a strong March jobs report.
They now expect the US central bank to start easing monetary policy in July instead of June.
“While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream ‘rate cuts!’” said Jason Pride at Glenmede. “With a strong labor market, expanding manufacturing and climbing commodity prices, the Fed will likely be in no rush to cut rates.”
Swap contracts imply around 60 basis points of US monetary easing this year, which means two cuts is the most likely outcome with the first expected by September, according to Bloomberg pricing.
On Friday, the chance of a third cut was still above 50%.
A rise in bond yields might be driven by “the wrong reasons” and will put stocks under pressure, according to JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka.
The team expects US 10-year yields to drop amid elevated geopolitical risks, while noting the risk of inflation staying too hot.
Given the potential for inflation overshoot, stocks with high financing costs could stay under pressure, the strategists wrote.
The rally in stock markets is likely to pause going into the earnings season as buybacks taper out through blackout periods and equity inflows turn flat due to seasonality, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists led by Parag Thatte
and Binky Chadha.
Wall Street is expecting a subdued earnings season from Corporate America despite the first-quarter’s stock market fireworks.
Strategists predict that S&P 500 companies will post their smallest year-over-year profit growth since 2019, just 3.9%, in the first quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
But in this case the market may be onto something, because those forecasts could very well turn out to be overly gloomy — like they were in the fourth quarter, when expectations were for around 1% growth and the actual results turned out to be over 8%.
“The recent resiliency of inflation reduces the immediacy of rate cuts, which puts more pressure on earnings to drive future market gains,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners. “Given the elevated market multiples and rising bond yields, we remain cautious on stocks until earnings season delivers clear evidence of earnings growth.”
Wells Fargo Securities’ Christopher Harvey just put Wall Street’s highest target on the S&P 500 Index for 2024 based on his expectation that the US equity rally will power on through the year.
Harvey lifted his year-end forecast on the benchmark to 5,535 from 4,625 previously, making him the biggest bull among strategists tracked by Bloomberg.
The growth potential from artificial intelligence technology and an improved earnings outlook are among the upside catalysts he sees, along with longer time horizons and higher valuation thresholds from investors, Harvey told clients in a note on Monday.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. plans to unveil its long-promised robo-taxi later this year as the carmaker struggles with weak sales and competition from cheap Chinese electric vehicles.
* 99 Cents Only Stores LLC has filed for bankruptcy after announcing plans in April to wind down its business operations.
* The stocks of apartment landlords staged a rally after Blackstone Inc., the world’s largest commercial real estate owner, stepped up its bet on the industry.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. is delaying two new routes due to growth restrictions imposed while US aviation authorities carry out a safety review of the carrier.
* Spirit Airlines Inc. announced an extensive cost-cutting program, less than three months after its proposed combination with JetBlue Airways Corp. fell through because of antitrust concerns.
* The US plans to award Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. $6.6 billion in grants and as much as $5 billion in loans to help the world’s top chipmaker build factories in Arizona, expanding President Joe Biden’s effort to boost domestic production of critical technology.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is cutting prices for cloud customers from the US to Singapore by as much as 59%, mirroring deep discounts at home as the once high-flying division struggles to fend off rivals and revive growth.

Key events this week:
* China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans, Tuesday
* Japan PPI, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* US CPI, Fed minutes, Wednesday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
* China PPI, CPI, Thursday
* Eurozone ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Thursday
* Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks, Thursday
* China trade, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo due to report results, Friday.
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0857
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2655
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 151.84 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.6% to $71,783.07
* Ether rose 8.9% to $3,705.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.42%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.09%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $86.53 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,338.53 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Jessica Menton, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Carter Johnson, Alexandra Semenova and Stephen Kirkland.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Be polite, write diplomatically; even in declaration of war one observes the rules of politeness. –Otto von Bismark, 1815-1898.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

April 5^th, 1722: Dutch navigator Jacob Roggeveen is the first European to discover Easter Island / Rapa Nui in the southeastern Pacific
April 5^th, 1792: George Washington exercises the first presidential veto in United States history, rejecting a congressional bill concerning apportionment.
Read more.

The longest-living animals on Earth
The longest-living animals can survive for centuries and millennia, even pausing the aging process altogether. Here are the longest-living animals in the world.

NASA engineers discover why Voyager 1 is sending a stream of gibberish from outside our solar system
Voyager 1 has been sending a stream of garbled nonsense since November. Now NASA engineers have identified the fault and found a potential workaround.

10 weird things that happen during a solar eclipse
Eclipses can be strange. Here are some of the weird things you can expect to experience during the April 8 total eclipse.

How and where to watch the April 8 solar eclipse online for free
On April 8, 2024, a total solar eclipse will be visible across North America and you can watch all the action live from your own home.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sichuan, China
The giant panda Fu Bao at the Wolong national nature reserve in Sichuan. A chartered flight carrying the panda landed in Chengdu this week. Fu Bao was the first giant panda to be born in South Korea to Le Bao and Ai Bao, two pandas leased by China to the country in 2016. The panda is currently under quarantine upon returning to China
Photograph: Li Chuanyou/Xinhua/EPA

Tokyo, Japan
People admire illuminated cherry trees in bloom at Chidorigafuchi Moat at night. Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed yesterday that the flowers on a sample Someiyoshino cherry tree in the Yasukuni Shrine were in full bloom 13 days later than average
Photograph: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Montreal, Canada
A pedestrian makes their way across an icy road as a spring storm brings more than 20cm of snow
Photograph: Canadian Press/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for April 5^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38904.04	+307.06
		+0.80%
S&P 500	5204.34	+57.13
		+1.11%
NASDAQ	16248.52	+199.44
		+1.24%
TSX	22264.38	+212.59
		+0.96%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38992.08	-781.06
		-1.96%
HANG SENG	16723.92	-1.18
		-0.01%
SENSEX	74248.22	+20.59
		+0.03%
FTSE 100*	7911.16	-64.73
		-0.81%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.593	3.548
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.520	3.460
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4016	4.3094
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5528	4.4757

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7360	0.7384
US $	1.3586	1.3543

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4731	0.6788
US $	1.0843	0.9223

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2293.50	2280.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	86.91	85.43

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1990, the estimated cost of bailing out failed savings & loan companies—pegged just one year earlier at $158 billion—was revised by government forecasters to $285 billion to $350 billion. “We all erred dramatically on the side of underestimating the problem,” said U.S. Senator Jake Garn (R-Utah).
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1% at 22,264.38 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.6% on Feb. 15 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
OceanaGold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.8%.
Today, 171 of 224 shares rose, while 51 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 18 times. The next day, it advanced 12 times for an average 0.8% and declined six times for an average 0.5%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.4%
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.46% compared with 7.08% in the previous session and the average of 10.29% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 52.5148| 0.8| 24/3
Materials | 50.7810| 2.0| 40/10
Energy | 29.2818| 0.7| 31/9
Information Technology | 24.9497| 1.4| 9/1
Industrials | 23.6284| 0.8| 18/9
Consumer Staples | 13.9626| 1.6| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 8.9476| 1.2| 10/3
Real Estate | 4.5709| 0.9| 18/3
Communication Services | 2.3624| 0.3| 3/2
Health Care | 1.2147| 1.6| 3/1
Utilities | 0.3874| 0.0| 5/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 23.0200| 1.7| 39.6| 3.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 13.4300| 1.7| -20.8| 27.1
Constellation Software | 12.8300| 2.6| -35.1| 10.8
Enbridge | -3.5670| -0.5| -26.3| 0.7
TC Energy | -4.3520| -1.1| -44.8| 0.3
TD Bank | -5.2110| -0.5| 90.5| -5.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market ended the week on a positive note after a blowout jobs report signaled the US economy will continue to power Corporate America — even if that means the potential for still elevated interest rates.
All major groups in the S&P 500 gained, with the gauge rising more than 1%. Wall Street decided to look at the glass half full on Friday based on the premise that if the economy is still so strong, there would be no real urgency for the Federal Reserve to start easing policy.
That triggered another hawkish reprice in the bond market.
Treasury yields climbed, with traders dialing back their projections for Fed cuts in 2024 to about 65 basis points — or less than what the central bank forecast last month.
US payrolls swelled by 303,000 in March, topping all estimates.
The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%, wages grew at a solid clip, and workforce participation rose, underscoring the strength of a labor market that’s driving the economy.
“Bang! Employment up, rate cuts need to come out,” said George Mateyo at Key Wealth. “The Fed will likely need to reconsider its current stance of three rate cuts this year.  But, the reason for this likely change in posture is bullish – the economy is doing well.”
The S&P 500 topped 5,200, though Friday’s advance didn’t prevent the gauge from notching its worst week since January.
Meta Platforms Inc. led gains in megacaps.
Tesla Inc. closed away from session lows as Elon Musk denied a report saying the carmaker had called off plans for a less-expensive vehicle.
Treasury 10-year yields rose nine basis points to 4.40%.
Brent oil held above $90 amid geopolitical tensions.
“It’s hard to find anything wrong with the March Jobs report,” said Steve Wyett at BOK Financial. “The only people who might be disappointed in today’s report are those looking for relief from Fed rate cuts. We still expect the next move from the Fed to be to lower rates, but there is little sense of urgency at the moment.”
To the extent that consumer spending and corporate profits are more important to investors than how soon — and how many times — the Fed will cut rates, then stocks can move higher, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“The number of rate cuts and whether they begin in June or July isn’t as important as whether the Fed is in rate-cutting mode or not,” he note. “To put it another way, 4 or 3 or 2 rate cuts in 2024 are all equally good for the stock market. But if we went to zero rate cuts or a rate hike, then all bets are off and that would be categorically bad.”
Friday’s jobs report indicates that the economy remains resilient even in the face of fading expectations of Fed cuts, says Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management.
“The fact that the labor market is so strong shows that companies and the economy are adapting to high interest rates,” he noted.
Mohamed El-Erian still expects Fed officials to cut interest rates twice this year, even as a solid jobs report pushes traders to rethink the timing.
“If this Fed is continuously overly data dependent, then maybe we don’t get cuts,” El-Erian, the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, said on Bloomberg Television. “But I am hoping that they will see through the backward-looking data and look forward.”
Traders ceased fully pricing in a Fed rate cut before September after the March employment report.
Swap contracts that predict the central bank’s rate decisions trimmed the probability of rate cut in June to about 52%.
For July, the probability dropped below 100%.
Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said it’s too soon to consider cutting rates, citing recent high inflation readings and signs that borrowing costs may not be holding back the economy as much as previously thought. Governor Michelle Bowman also expressed her concern about potential upside risks to inflation, reiterating it’s “still not yet” time to lower rates.
Jerome Powell has said strong hiring on its own isn’t enough to delay policy easing, but Friday’s jobs report — especially when paired with a pickup in key inflation numbers at the start of 2024 — raise the possibility of later or fewer cuts this year.
“There is no weakness in the job market which would impel the Fed to quickly cut, but no tightness which would prohibit a cut either,” said Preston Caldwell at Morningstar. “Fed decisions in upcoming meetings will hinge mainly on the inflation data.”
Officials will see fresh figures on consumer and producer prices next week, followed by the March reading of their preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — before their April 30-May 1 meeting.
“Our base case remains that the Fed will cut rates in June with a total of three cuts by the end of 2024, but some softening of both the labor market data and the inflation data is likely required for that to happen,” said Brian Rose at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Next week, markets are likely to focus on the CPI data for March — which we expect to show a smaller monthly increase than in the prior two months.”
The evolution of consumer price inflation remains the key determinant of easing in the short term — which raises the stakes for next week’s CPI report, according to Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“We remain of the view that the June meeting remains live in terms of when the Fed could begin to cut rates.” To David Russell at TradeStation, while a June rate cut might be at risk, next week’s CPI number will probably be a “bigger litmus test” for the Fed. “The bears haven’t won yet,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. is calling off an investor meeting scheduled for early next month because it would “send the wrong message” to celebrate its performance in the wake of a series of headline-grabbing safety incidents.
* Johnson & Johnson agreed to acquire Shockwave Medical Inc. for about $13.1 billion to bolster its expansion into making medical devices to treat heart disease.
* Meta Platforms Inc. asked a judge to dismiss the US Federal Trade Commission’s antitrust lawsuit seeking to break up the company, saying the agency can’t prove consumers would be better off without its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.
* Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s $7.4 billion takeover of Southwestern Energy Co. has been delayed until the second half of the year after antitrust regulators demanded more details from the natural gas explorers.

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve!
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

April 4^th, 1975: Microsoft is founded as a partnership between Bill Gates and Paul Allen to develop and sell BASIC interpreters for the Altair 8800.
April 4^th, 1973: World Trade Center, then the world’s tallest building, opens in New York (110 stories). Later destroyed in 9/11 terrorist attacks.
April 4^th, 1968: US civil rights activist Martin Luther King Jr. is assassinated by James Earl Ray at the Lorraine Hotel in Memphis, Tennessee.
April 4^th, 1887: Susanna Madora Salter elected 1st US woman mayor in Argonia, Kansas.
April 4^th, 1850: City of Los Angeles incorporated.
Read more.

Some stars may be ‘infected’ with black holes that destroy them from within, new study hints
Could dark matter be made of mini black holes that formed in the early universe? One way to find out is to look for missing stars, destroyed by primordial black holes, a new study suggests.

NASA to create a new time zone for the moon by 2026
The moon’s lower gravity means that time runs slower on its surface. With more moon missions planned, NASA has now been tasked by the White House to create a lunar time zone by 2026.

Error-corrected qubits 800 times more reliable after breakthrough, paving the way for ‘next level’ of quantum computing
Scientists have created a set of “logical qubits” that have error rates 800 times lower than physical qubits — paving the way for useful, fault-tolerant quantum computers in the near future.

Underwater robot in Siberia’s Lake Baikal reveals hidden mud volcanoes — and an active fault
Video cameras mounted on an autonomous underwater robot captured footage of cracks associated with mud volcanism close to a potentially active fault on the shores of Lake Baikal.

“Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.”
Martin Luther King, Jr.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Lehde, Germany
Andrea Bunar, a postal worker, delivers mail via canal in the Spree Forest region
Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images

Iran’s Chabahar Mountains
This region is also known in Iran as the Martian mountains. The dramatically lit peaks are captured here by Chee
Photograph: Callie Chee

​​​​​​​Dog Sleds in Greenland
Inuit hunters in north-west Greenland still travel by dog sled on sea ice in winter. Itkonen, a photographer from Finland, has been documenting Greenland and its inhabitants for 30 years, and captures here a moment of rest for the dogs on their arduous journey
Photograph: Tiina Itkonen
Market Closes for April 4^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38596.98	-530.16
		-1.36%
S&P 500	5147.21	-64.28
		-1.23%
NASDAQ	16049.08	-228.38
		-1.40%
TSX	22051.79	-60.67
		-0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39773.14	+321.29
		+0.81%
HANG SENG	Market Closed	N.A
SENSEX	74227.63	+350.81
		+0.47%
FTSE 100*	7975.89	+38.45
		+0.48%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.548	3.593
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.460	3.503
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3094	4.3472
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4757	4.5072

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7384	0.7392
US $	1.3543	1.3528

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4679	0.6812
US $	1.0839	0.9226

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2280.15	2264.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.43	85.15

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1877, the world’s first regular telephone line went into service. It connected Charles Williams’ metalworking shop in Boston with his home. Within weeks Alexander Graham Bell began signing up his first paying customers.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 22,051.79 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since March 26 after the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.0%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.4%.
Today, 141 of 224 shares fell, while 78 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.5%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Dec. 8
* The index advanced 8.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 18% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.51t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.08% compared with 7.17% in the previous session and the average of 10.48% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -20.8776| -1.1| 2/8
Materials | -18.8174| -0.7| 10/39
Industrials | -12.3870| -0.4| 8/19
Consumer Staples | -9.9212| -1.1| 3/8
Financials | -8.0151| -0.1| 7/20
Utilities | -3.0788| -0.4| 8/6
Real Estate | -1.1902| -0.2| 12/7
Health Care | -1.0462| -1.4| 2/2
Communication Services | 1.5935| 0.2| 3/2
Energy | 2.2702| 0.1| 21/19
Consumer Discretionary | 10.8013| 1.4| 2/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -8.4450| -1.0| -29.2| -1.7
Brookfield Corp | -7.8990| -1.4| -51.9| 2.3
Canadian National | -7.6350| -1.1| -2.5| 5.0
Canadian Natural Resources | 8.2520| 1.0| 28.0| 25.0
RBC | 10.6200| 0.8| 39.9| 2.1
Dollarama | 19.6800| 10.0| 219.4| 15.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell ahead of Friday’s jobs report as a rally in oil amid geopolitical tensions triggered a flight to the safest corners of the market.
Treasuries climbed and the dollar ended near session highs.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, erasing gains.
Brent crude topped $90 a barrel as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a security cabinet meeting his country will operate against Iran and its proxies and will hurt those who seek to harm it.
President Joe Biden told Netanyahu on a call that US support for his war would depend on new steps to protect civilians.
“The real issue lies in the reason WHY oil is rising again,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “If we get a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, that’s something that will likely restrict the supply of oil coming from the Middle
East. That has not been an issue up until now, but it could become one very quickly.”
Bond yields dropped across the US curve — even after Federal Reserve Bank Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said rate cuts may not be needed this year if progress on inflation stalls.
He was among the more than a half-dozen central bank officials speaking ahead of the release of the March jobs data.
Healthy US employment gains likely continued in March while wage growth moderated, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Payrolls are seen increasing by at least 200,000 for a fourth straight month.
Average hourly earnings are projected to climb 4.1% from the same month last year, the smallest annual advance since mid-2021.
“As always, the monthly jobs report will have the final say,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Investors will be looking for a ‘Goldilocks’ number that won’t give the Fed any reason to delay rate cuts, but also doesn’t suggest the labor market is taking a serious downturn.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows there’s no clear consensus on the market reaction to Friday’s jobs report.
Among the investors surveyed, 29% think the response will be “risk- on,” 32% said “risk-off,” and 39% are betting on a “mixed/negligible” reaction.
“Average hourly earnings has supplanted payrolls as the most important labor indicator,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V. “That’s consistent with inflation being investors’ biggest concern. But investors are also watching labor data the closest.”
Bond investors are strongly inclined to buy Treasuries on any selloff resulting from the March employment data, according to a survey conducted by Vail Hartman and Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
They found that 57% of respondents would buy if Treasuries fall after the release.
If bonds rally following the report, around two-thirds of investors said they’d do nothing.

Corporate Highlights:
* The US Federal Trade Commission warned hundreds of companies including Pfizer Inc., Baxter International Inc. and Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. that it could challenge their acquisitions even after the deadline for the agency’s antitrust review had passed.
* Alphabet Inc. is talking with financial advisers about potentially making an offer for HubSpot Inc., an online marketing software company valued at about $34 billion, Reuters reported on Thursday.
* Ford Motor Co. is delaying the rollout of an electric three- row sport utility vehicle by two years, extending the layoff of 2,700 workers in Canada who were set to begin building it in 2025.
* Boeing Co.’s latest 737 Max crisis has worsened an airline shortage of popular narrowbody aircraft, sending the cost of used-jet rentals to the highest level in years.
* Levi Strauss & Co. jumped after cost-cutting measures boosted profitability and a bet on baggy jeans and denim skirts drove higher-than-expected sales.
* Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. will pull its drug for a progressive, fatal nerve disease from the market after a trial showed that patients taking it fared no better than those getting a placebo on a variety of measures.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone retail sales, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman, Thomas Barkin and Lorie Logan speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0835
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2639
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 151.25 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.3% to $68,560.51
* Ether rose 1.9% to $3,370.09
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.30%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.36%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.02%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $86.64 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,285.89 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Craig Stirling, Vince Golle, Edward Bolingbroke, Carter Johnson, Julia Fanzeres, Felice Maranz and Liz Capo McCormick.

Have a wonderful evening everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
” The more I study, the more insatiable do I feel my genius for it to be.” — Ada Lovelace

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

April 3,1973: 1st mobile phone call is made in downtown Manhattan, NYC by Motorola employee Martin Cooper to the Bell Labs headquarters in New Jersey

Early humans lived on ‘Persian plateau’ for 20,000 years after leaving Africa, study suggests
A study proposes that Homo sapiens outside of Africa made their home on the Persian plateau during that mysterious period.

1,700-year-old Roman fort discovered in Germany was built to keep out barbarians
Archaeologists have unearthed the ruins of a Roman fortress in Germany that once protected against barbarian intruders.

New mRNA therapy shows promise in treating ‘ultrarare’ inherited disease
A new treatment may be able to treat a life-threatening disorder that predominantly affects children, initial findings from a pioneering clinical trial suggest.

Group of 60 ultra-faint stars orbiting the Milky Way could be new type of galaxy never seen before
A new satellite galaxy discovered orbiting the Milky Way is either an incredibly ancient, soon-to-fragment clump of stars or the most dark-matter-dominated dwarf galaxy ever found.

Stars, planets and more will be visible during the total solar eclipse on April 8. Here’s what to look for, and where.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Arese, Italy
A visitor takes a photo at Tulipani Italiani, a pick-your-own tulips field with more than 500,000 tulips planted by Edwin Koeman and Nitsuje Wolanios, a Dutch couple
Photograph: Piero Cruciatti/Anadolu/Getty Images

Vantaa, Finland
Candles and flowers are placed on a square in front of Viertola school to pay tribute to victims of a shooting
Photograph: Jussi Nukari/Lehtikuva/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Tui De Roy: Blue-footed Booby
There’s no mistaking the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), captured here in the Galápagos, Ecuador, by De Roy, a wildlife photographer and author based on the islands
Market Closes for April 3^rd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39127.14	-43.10
		-0.11%
S&P 500	5211.49	+5.68
		+0.11%
NASDAQ	16277.46	+37.01
		+0.23%
TSX	22112.46	+37.36
		+0.17%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39451.85	-387.06
		-0.97%
HANG SENG	16725.10	-206.42
		-1.22%
SENSEX	73876.82	-27.09
		-0.04%
FTSE 100*	7937.44	+2.35
		+0.03%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.593	3.608
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.503	3.503
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3472	4.3491
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5072	4.4953

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7392	0.7372
US $	1.3528	1.3565

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4660	0.6821
US $	1.0837	0.9228

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2264.50	2264.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.15	83.71

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1948: U.S. Congress passed the Marshall Plan to finance the reconstruction of Western Europe after World War II, laying the groundwork for the global economic boom of the 1950s.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 22,112.46 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest increase, rising 16.7%.
Today, 131 of 224 shares rose, while 91 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on March 28, 2024 and 18.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.17% compared with 7.25% in the previous session and the average of 10.63% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 46.9178| 1.9| 43/7
Energy | 32.9963| 0.8| 33/8
Financials | 15.9771| 0.2| 17/10
Health Care | 2.3234| 3.2| 2/2
Consumer Staples | -1.1499| -0.1| 5/6
Communication Services | -1.6237| -0.2| 0/4
Real Estate | -4.1340| -0.8| 3/18
Utilities | -4.4450| -0.5| 5/9
Consumer Discretionary | -8.4295| -1.1| 3/10
Industrials | -9.3671| -0.3| 16/11
Information Technology | -31.7214| -1.7| 4/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 9.9020| 1.2| -38.7| 23.8
Cameco | 8.3780| 4.3| 5.7| 18.1
Wheaton Precious Metals | 7.5390| 3.6| 11.8| 5.8
TC Energy | -8.2690| -2.1| 1.8| 2.7
WSP Global | -10.4500| -5.4| 243.9| 12.2
Shopify | -30.7400| -3.4| 7.3| -0.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The bond market rebounded from session lows, with Jerome Powell only reiterating the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see approach before policymakers decide to embark on interest-rate cuts.
While the Fed chief didn’t break any major new ground, Wall Street got some relief from his views that recent inflation figures did not “materially change” the overall picture.
Powell also reaffirmed that it will likely be appropriate to begin lowering rates “at some point this year.”
Equities edged up after a two-day slide, but struggled to pick up much traction amid a drop in a pair of blue chips — Intel Corp. and Walt Disney Co.
In recent days, traders had scaled back their rate-cut expectations amid signs of economic resilience and a more cautious tone from a drumbeat of Fed officials.
That has led to skepticism on whether Powell and his colleagues would be able to deliver on the central bank’s projection of three rate reductions this year.
“Powell says recent data has not materially changed the picture,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore. “We read this as confirming that the spasm of concern in markets that the economy might be too strong for the Fed to cut in June was overdone —and the base case remains June and three cuts this year.”
Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 4.35% after climbing about eight basis points earlier Wednesday.
The S&P 500 finished with a mere gain of 0.1%.
Intel fell over 8% on a disappointing outlook for its factory operations.
Disney dropped more than 3% as shareholders rejected dissident investor Nelson Peltz’s bid for a board seat.
“The Fed is unquestionably in wait-and-see mode,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. “All waiting and no seeing has been the hallmark of this cycle’s first rate cut and nothing learned from today’s session will change that.”
To Peter Williams at 22V Research, Powell seems to want to get some cuts done, but with growth and the labor market holding up, the spot incentive to do so is relatively minimal.
“Instead, the inflation data will have to give the Fed permission to start cuts,” Williams noted. “I continue to think that the odds they are able to cut in June are around or just a bit above 50%, but that cumulative cuts in 2024 lean more
towards 2x than 3x at this point.”
The Fed could risk losing its credibility if it cuts rates too soon, according to Eric Veiel at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. “Jerome Powell said very early on he is a student of what happened in the seventies,” he told Bloomberg Television —
before Powell’s remarks. “If they go ahead and start cutting now, I think they are in danger of making the same mistake.”
In the 1970s, the central bank was too quick off the mark in easing policy before inflation was truly vanquished.
That’s an error that Paul Volcker committed in 1980 as the economy weakened, only to reverse course later and drive the US into a deeper downturn.
Amid a backdrop of mixed data and a question on how long the Fed intends to pause, “expect some churning in the market,” says Victoria Fernandez at Crossmark Global Investments.
“We expect more of a market consolidation instead of a correction,” said Yung-Yu Ma at BMO Wealth Management. “The stock market doesn’t need Fed rate cuts or even falling inflation, but it’s also not in a robust position to quickly
digest risks that could arise from accelerating inflation, increasing geopolitical shocks to oil prices, or rising long- term interest rates.”
Despite a “solid” outlook for a US soft landing, stock investors’ expectations have gotten stretched.
Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm says that’s reason to seek opportunities outside the S&P 500, according to a note from the bank’s global investment committee.
The US equity benchmark’s rally was driven by multiples expansion, with investors expecting improving profits despite cooling growth, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett wrote this week.
Investors appear to be showing “persistent” demand for US stocks, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists, suggesting there’s room for the rally to resume after the recent pullback.
More than $16 billion in net long positions was added to S&P 500 futures last week, while exchange-traded funds showed net inflows, strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote this week.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has teams investigating a push into personal robotics, a field with the potential to become one of the company’s ever-shifting “next big things,” according to people familiar with the situation.
* Ulta Beauty Inc. sank after executives signaled cooling consumer demand for beauty products, which weighed on the shares of industry peers as well.
* Ford Motor Co.’s US auto sales rose 7% in the first quarter on strong demand for gas-electric hybrids, despite a laborious launch of a redesigned F-150 pickup truck.
* Cal-Maine Foods Inc. reported earnings per share and net sales that topped consensus expectations. It touted strong demand for eggs, noting that total sales volumes, or dozens sold, hit a company record.
* Eli Lilly & Co.’s weight-loss drug Zepbound is officially in shortage in the US, after mounting complaints by patients, doctors and pharmacists who are having trouble finding the drug.
* Dave Calhoun, who plans to step down as chief executive officer of beleaguered Boeing Co. later this year, will also depart from the board of machinery manufacturer Caterpillar Inc.
* Mastercard Inc. plans to increase certain credit card fees beginning April 15, just days after the company and Visa Inc. trumpeted a $30 billion settlement over separate swipe fees designed to provide relief to retail businesses.
* Spotify Technology SA plans to raise the price of its popular audio service in several key markets for the second time in a year, a crucial step toward reaching long-term profitability.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Challenger job cuts, Thursday
* Fed’s Loretta Mester, Alberto Musalem, Thomas Barkin, Patrick Harker, Austan Goolsbee speak, Thursday
* European Central Bank publishes account of March rate decision, Thursday
* Eurozone retail sales, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman, Thomas Barkin and Lorie Logan speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0833
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2649
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.68 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $65,856.04
* Ether rose 1.3% to $3,315.95
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.35%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.40%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.06%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $85.57 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,297.60 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Farah Elbahrawy and Rheaa Rao.

Have a wonderful evening everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“To create one’s world in any of the arts takes courage.”– Georgia O’Keeffe

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

April 2, 1956: American singer Elvis Presley’s first album, titled “Elvis Presley,” is released, marking the beginning of his legendary music career.
April 2, 1513: Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de León first sights the land that will become Florida.

Do animals really have instincts?
Across the animal kingdom, different species seem to have instinctual ways of finding their way through life: Newly hatched sea turtles that know to reach the ocean by moonlight, birds that migrate thousands of miles as the seasons change, and lioness mothers that know to nurse, protect and teach their young. But are these really instincts?

Mysterious object that crashed through Florida home was likely space junk from the International Space Station. Read more.

What to expect during April’s total solar eclipse.
Sky-gazers across North America are in for a treat on April 8 when a total solar eclipse will pass over Mexico, the United States and Canada. Read more.

Explosive green ‘Mother of Dragons’ comet now visible in the Northern Hemisphere.
The green comet 12P/Pons-Brooks is now visible in the night sky in North America. Here’s how to see it.

See a SpaceX rocket photobomb the moon in incredible award-winning shot
An exceptionally skillful photograph of a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket passing in front of the moon took home top prize at the Sony World Photography Awards 2024.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kiryat Shmona, Israel
An Israeli farmer tends to his field near the Lebanon border
Photograph: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images

Chinon, France
Poplar trees are submerged during flooding from the Vienne River, in western France.
Photograph: Guillaume Souvant/AFP/Getty Images

Beijing, China
A woman stands on a stepladder to pose with spring blossom at a public park
Photograph: Andy Wong/AP
Market Closes for April 2^nd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39170.24	-396.61
		-1.00%
S&P 500	5205.81	-37.96
		-0.72%
NASDAQ	16240.45	-156.38
		-0.95%
TSX	22075.10	-110.15
		-0.50%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39838.91	+35.82
		+0.09%
HANG SENG	16931.52	+390.10
		+2.36%
SENSEX	73903.91	-110.64
		-0.15%
FTSE 100*	7935.09	-17.53
		-0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.608	3.586
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.503	3.478
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3491	4.3092
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4953	4.4484

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7372	0.7368
US $	1.3565	1.3572

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4610	0.6845
US $	1.0771	0.9284

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2264.50	2214.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.71	83.17

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1799, the New York State legislature approved the corporate charter for the Manhattan Co., a corporation founded by Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr that planned to build dams, divert streams and lay water pipes. It morphed into the Bank of the Manhattan, ancestor of Chase Manhattan and eventually JPMorgan Chase.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 22,075.10 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on March 14 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 142 of 224 shares fell, while 79 rose.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 5.8%.
Insights
* The index advanced 9.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on March 28, 2024 and 18.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.52t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.25% compared with 7.05% in the previous session and the average of 10.80% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -68.5928| -1.0| 4/23
Industrials | -32.3696| -1.0| 5/22
Information Technology | -14.5009| -0.8| 2/8
Communication Services | -11.7334| -1.7| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -8.7237| -1.0| 4/7
Utilities | -6.5516| -0.8| 3/12
Real Estate | -6.4713| -1.3| 2/18
Consumer Discretionary | -5.4214| -0.7| 3/10
Health Care | -1.1322| -1.5| 0/4
Materials | 15.1702| 0.6| 27/22
Energy | 30.1712| 0.7| 28/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -14.1500| -1.4| 19.4| -5.8
Constellation Software | -10.1000| -2.0| 88.9| 9.3
Brookfield Corp | -9.8990| -1.8| -9.6| 3.3
Barrick Gold | 5.0320| 1.8| 1.9| -2.6
Suncor Energy | 8.1200| 1.8| -63.2| 21.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 10.6500| 1.4| -54.9| 22.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks dropped after solid economic readings and a rally in commodities spurred speculation that major central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer.
In a revival of the “good news is bad news” trade, better- than-estimated data on US job openings and factory goods orders added to skepticism about the pace of Federal Reserve easing.
With traders now projecting fewer rate cuts in 2024 than the Fed itself, 10-year yields hit the highest levels since November.
That weighed on the equity market — which had been ignoring the repricing of central-bank bets in the last few months amid a torrid rally.
“Stock bulls may find it difficult justifying buying stocks at these elevated levels as yields rise,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“Rising crude oil prices pose additional risk to the inflation outlook. Additionally, numerous jobs reports are expected throughout the week. Trading could be volatile.”
Following hotter-than-estimated data in various corners of the world, the global version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index — which measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations — is near the highest in a year.
Just this week, the two biggest economies — the US and China — showed strong manufacturing figures.
The S&P 500 saw its worst day in almost a month.
Tesla Inc. led losses in megacaps.
A gauge of small caps sank nearly 2%.
Wall Street’s favorite volatility measure — the VIX — jumped.
US 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.35%.
Oil climbed to $85, copper rallied and gold hovered near all-time highs.
Bitcoin sank.
As traders awaited remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, they weighed comments from two officials who vote on monetary policy decisions this year.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and her Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester said they still expect the central bank to cut rates three times in 2024 — though they’re in no rush to begin lowering borrowing costs.
Swap traders are currently projecting about 65 basis points of rate reductions this year — less than the 75 basis points signaled in the Fed’s latest “dot plot” forecasts.
“Our base case is that the Fed engineers a soft landing and starts to cut rates in the second half of the year,” said Gargi Chaudhuri at BlackRock.
“The downside risks to economic growth have diminished, so the risk of only two Fed rate cuts now appears higher than the risk of four cuts.”
US stocks have soared from their October lows even with projections for Fed cuts being pushed back.
That disconnect between equity markets and rate expectations is a worrying sign, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. led by Mislav Matejka.
They said earnings would need to accelerate in order to plug that gap.
Investors who are selling stocks because the Fed may scale back plans for interest rate cuts are missing the point.
The move would be a good sign for the economy — and therefore equity markets, according Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Andrew Slimmon.
“I think a patient Fed validates that the economy is strong,” Slimmon told Bloomberg Television. “That’s better for equities.”
The S&P 500’s trailing one-year return has exceeded the performance of long-term US Treasuries for 40 straight months —the longest streak since at least 1978, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group.
“Bonds have been due for a bounce, but if you’ve been holding your breath waiting for one, RIP,” the firm said.
Bespoke also cited the fact that the equity gauge was up over 30% on a total return basis in the 12 months ending in March — ranking as the strongest 12-month gain for the index since October 2021.
“A correction can happen at any time, but the S&P 500’s median performance one, three, six, and 12 months after initially rallying 30% in a year was better than the average for all periods,” Bespoke said.
Also, despite the equity slide this week, the market has still avoided any major pullbacks at a historic pace.
The maximum drawdown thus far in 2024 for the S&P 500 sits at nearly 2% — on track to be among the smallest ever if this continues for the rest of the year, according to data from JPMorgan Asset Management going back to 1980.
Moreover, strong first quarter returns are typically an optimistic sign for US stocks and tend to lead to further gains by the end of the year.
Since 1950, there have been 11 prior instances where the S&P 500 rose at least 10% in the first quarter, per Keith Lerner of Truist Advisory Services.
The equities gauge was higher the rest of the year 10 out of 11 times, with an average gain of 11%, Truist data show.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. delivered 386,810 vehicles in the first three months of the year, missing Bloomberg’s average estimate by the biggest margin ever in data going back seven years.
* The Medicare payment decision that rocked health-insurer stocks Tuesday sets up a high-stakes election year gamble for the Biden administration as seniors could end up seeing cutbacks in their health plans right before Election Day.
* Autodesk Inc. fell after disclosing an internal investigation into its own accounting practices and putting off the release of its annual financial report.
* Endeavor Group Holdings Inc., the talent agency and controlling investor in WWE and the Ultimate Fighting Championship, agreed to be acquired in a $13 billion buyout by the private equity group Silver Lake Management.
* SLB agreed to acquire rival oil field service provider ChampionX Corp. for $7.8 billion in an all-stock deal, a move that will bulk up SLB’s technology portfolio as aging shale wells prompt US drillers to spend more to keep output flowing longer.
* Cal-Maine Foods Inc., the biggest egg producer in the US, has culled roughly 3.6% of its flock after birds at a Texas facility tested positive for avian flu, adding to concerns over a widening outbreak.
* The United Steelworkers union dismissed a letter from Nippon Steel Corp. committing to spending and job protection as “a meaningless piece of paper,” in the latest salvo over the Japanese steelmaker’s planned $14.1 billion acquisition of United States Steel Corp.

Key events this week:
* China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
* Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Wednesday
* Japan services PMI, Wednesday
* US ADP employment, ISM Services, Wednesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, Wednesday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Adriana Kugler and Michelle Bowman also speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Challenger job cuts, Thursday
* Fed’s Loretta Mester, Alberto Musalem, Thomas Barkin, Patrick Harker, Austan Goolsbee speak, Thursday
* European Central Bank publishes account of March rate decision, Thursday
* Eurozone retail sales, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman, Thomas Barkin and Lorie Logan speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0768
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2577
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.5% to $65,920.04
* Ether fell 6.3% to $3,277.01
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.35%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 2.40%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 15 basis points to 4.08%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $85.10 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,277.40 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Michael Msika and Alexandra Semenova.

Have a wonderful evening everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
” It ain’t over till it’s over.”– Lawrence Peter Berra “Yogi”

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday, April 1^st!
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

April 1^st, 1789: The U.S. House of Representatives held its first full meeting in New York City.
April 1^st, 1976: Apple Inc. was founded by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak in the garage of Jobs’ parents house in Cupertino, California
April 1^st, 2004: Google introduced Gmail, its free email service, to the public. Initially met with skepticism due to its large storage capacity and ad-supported model, Gmail quickly gained popularity and became one of the most widely used email platforms globally.

The incredible ‘sacred’ waterfall in Angola that you’ve probably never heard of.
The spectacle is wreathed in a cool mist that locals say is part of its spiritual history.

Where does the solar system end?
The location of the solar system’s outer boundary is a point of contention among astronomers.

How much does Earth weigh?
Earth’s mass took hundreds of years to estimate, and even now, experts don’t agree on the exact number.

Skeleton panda sea squirt: The weird little creature that looks like baby panda dressed up for Halloween
Scientists discovered this little panda skeleton that lives off the coast of a Japanese island was a new species after scuba divers posted photos of it online.

Orcas aren’t all the same species, study of North Pacific killer whales reveals
Orcas have long been categorized as a single species, although some scientists have questioned this classification in recent decades. Now, researchers propose that two orca populations in the eastern North Pacific Ocean are actually two distinct species. Read more.

April 8 solar eclipse: What time does totality start in every state?

Ancient quarries in Israel reveal where Homo erectus hunted and butchered elephants
Ancient humans quarried flint to make weapons for hunting and butchering elephants up to 2 million years ago in what’s now the Upper Galilee region of Israel, a new study finds.

World Nature Photography Awards 2024: Spectacular images of wildlife. Read More.

Space photo of the week: James Webb telescope reveals surprising starburst in ancient galaxy. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Straumur, Iceland
The aurora borealis, also known as the Northern Lights, fills the night sky
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Afar, Ethiopia
A man walks through a salt canyon near Dallol, in the Danakil Depression, one of the hottest, most inhospitable place on earth
Photograph: Michele Spatari/AFP/Getty Images

Taizhou, China
Maintenance workers at a solar farm and fishery in Jiangsu province
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for April 1st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39566.85	-240.52
		-0.60%
S&P 500	5243.77	-10.58
		-0.20%
NASDAQ	16396.83	+17.37
		+0.11%
TSX	22185.25	+18.22
		+0.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39803.09	-566.35
		-1.40%
HANG SENG	16541.42	+148.58
		+0.91%
SENSEX	74014.55	+363.20
		+0.49%
FTSE 100*	7952.62	+20.64
		+0.26%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.586	3.468
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.478	3.355
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3092	4.2003
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4484	4.3427

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7368	0.7386
US $	1.3572	1.3539

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4579	0.6859
US $	1.0742	0.9309

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2214.35	2214.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.17	83.17

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1930, in one of the biggest “suckers’ rallies” of all time, the total market value of New York Stock Exchange-listed companies hit $67.5 billion, up roughly 40% from its trough in the Great Crash of 1929. By the end of the year, however, stocks had retreated more than 40%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 22,185.25 in Toronto.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 8.2%.
Ballard Power Systems Inc. had the largest increase, rising 18.0%.
Today, 109 of 224 shares rose, while 112 fell; 3 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.2% below its 52-week high on March 28, 2024 and 18.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 3.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.51t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 7.05% compared with 7.05% in the previous session and the average of 11.02% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 43.9301| 1.1| 36/5
Materials | 36.8659| 1.5| 36/12
Information Technology | 10.1978| 0.5| 4/6
Health Care | -0.8129| -1.1| 0/4
Communication Services | -2.3503| -0.3| 1/4
Real Estate | -4.8313| -1.0| 2/19
Industrials | -4.9354| -0.2| 11/16
Consumer Discretionary | -5.7874| -0.7| 3/10
Utilities | -6.8896| -0.8| 2/12
Consumer Staples | -8.5680| -0.9| 5/6
Financials | -38.5920| -0.6| 9/18
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Cameco | 14.5100| 8.2| 17.4| 11.0
Shopify | 13.9300| 1.6| -40.1| 2.9
Canadian Natural Resources | 10.2000| 1.3| -45.4| 20.6
Manulife Financial | -5.6820| -1.3| -32.2| 14.0
Brookfield Corp | -7.5990| -1.3| -59.1| 5.2
Couche-Tard | -8.5290| -2.2| 21.7| -3.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent both stocks and bonds lower after solid US factory data reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates.
Treasuries fell across the curve — with 10-year yields climbing over 10 basis points — as manufacturing unexpectedly expanded for the first time since September 2022 — while input costs climbed.
Following the report, the amount of Fed easing priced into swap contracts for this year slid to around 65 basis points — less than forecast by policymakers.
Equities also lost traction after the S&P 500 notched its fifth-straight month of gains.
“Investors are indeed front-running the possibility of yet another hawkish pivot from the Fed,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “The Fed’s first rate cut may arrive in the second half of the year after all — with probabilities of a reduction this June inching closer to coin-flip odds.”
Later this week, a report is expected to show employment gains continued in March while wage growth moderated.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell — who is set to speak Wednesday — said Friday that officials are awaiting more evidence prices are contained.
US 10-year yields hovered near their 2024 highs.
The S&P 500 fell below 5,250.
Megacaps were mixed, with Apple Inc. down and Microsoft Corp. up.
FedEx Corp. sank as its contract with the United States Postal Service will expire in late September.
The dollar rose.
Oil and gold climbed as an Israeli attack in Syria threatened to widen the conflict in the Middle East.
While the market appears “content” to point toward the manufacturing release as the trigger for the move, there was already a bond selloff underway prior to the headlines, said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“Monday’s price action in the futures space suggests the pendulum of sentiment in US rates may be shifting toward the hawkish direction — although it goes without saying there remains ample room for expectations to meaningfully shift as more data is revealed,” they noted.
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge rose to 50.3 last month. While barely above the level of 50 that separates expansion and contraction, it halted 16 straight months of shrinking activity.
At the same time, the group’s gauge of prices paid rose to 55.8, the highest since July 2022.
Perhaps “most troubling” was the jump in the prices paid, according to Michael Shaoul at Market field Asset Management.
“This indicates that some of the ‘transitory’ relief from reflationary forces is starting to reverse.”
To Kurt Rankin at PNC, the renewed upward trend for manufacturers’ costs should serve as a reminder that risks remain at a time when Fed officials continue to cite the need for further evidence that inflation is on a sustainable path toward their 2% goal.
“Rising producer costs – which are inevitably passed on to consumers – makes that evidence less likely to surface in the next few months.” he noted.
Bond traders priced in less monetary policy easing by the Fed this year — and briefly set the odds of a first move in June to less than 50%.
Another factor putting pressure on bonds Monday was a raft of corporate-bond issuance.
Adobe Inc. was in the high-grade market looking to raise cash to help pay for capital expenditures, stock buybacks and acquisitions, one of seven companies selling notes.
Japanese e-commerce company Rakuten Group Inc. is selling a $1.25 billion junk bond to repurchase notes that mature this year and further out, one of four deals in the market.
It’s unclear how long the frenzied activity will continue.
First-quarter sales broke records in investment-grade corporate bonds, while for high yield, activity was the highest since 2021.
But issuance activity often tapers off in April —particularly after the Easter holiday.
In this week’s commentary from the BlackRock Investment Institute, the firm said it’s “staying nimble while seeking income.”
“We think central banks will keep rates higher for longer than pre-pandemic due to persistent supply constraints,” BII said. “While income is back, tight US credit spreads and long- term yield volatility pose risks.”
The strength of the US economy and corporations has helped the markets navigate the disappointment some investors felt over the course of the first quarter as the Fed pushed back a number of times on market expectations for rate cuts, according to John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
“Chances for a pivot by the Fed in June appear to us somewhat subdued in comparison to what had been expected earlier this year as reflected in the futures market,” he noted. “In our view, investors’ expectations as to when, where and how much the Fed will cut this year are likely best kept right-sized near term.”
Investors who just booked profits from one of the strongest first quarters for the S&P 500 in decades are preparing for what comes next — whether that’s stocks climbing higher or crashing back to earth.
The cost of S&P 500 bullish call options expiring in one year with a 25% chance of coming in the money — known as having a 25-delta — is up, while the cost of equivalent bearish puts is down.
Meaning investors are ready for continued broad market advances and aren’t particularly worried about a slight pullback.
To Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research, trading in stocks is likely to get much choppier following an incredibly strong run and little fear baked into prices.
“Overvaluation alone has not historically been cause for imminent concern,” a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. team led by Ryan Hammond told clients in a note last week.
“Periods of overvaluation often persist for nearly a year and are typically benign if the subsequent economic growth environment is healthy.”
Gains in the US stock market last quarter boosted confidence among equity investors to the highest in nearly two years, but sentiment is still far from the “euphoric” levels that typically signal a top, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
BofA’s Sell-Side Indicator edged up in March to 55% — the highest level since May 2022, a team led by head of US equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian said on Monday in note to clients.
Whenever the indicator was same level or lower than that average recommendation, returns were positive 94% of the time over the subsequent 12 months.
To Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG, the biggest risk into April is a momentum unwind.
The Goldman Sachs Long/Short High Beta Momentum Index recently reached 32% above its 200-day moving average — a level only exceeded twice in the last 15 years.
It was up about 36% on the quarter.
Since its inception, it has only been up over 30% for a quarter twice.
In the following quarters, it was down 22% and 23%, respectively.
“With earnings season expectations already priced in, we’re watching for a few pressure points that could pose a risk to this remarkable rally,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Ultimately, the market is facing two tests right now: complacency and margin pressure. April will provide clarity for how this market will fare on both fronts.”

Corporate Highlights:
* AT&T Inc. said that personal data from about 73 million current and former customers was leaked onto the dark web, prompting it to reset 7.6 million account passcodes.
* Micron Technology Inc. climbed after Bank of America Corp. raised its price target on the memory-focused chipmaker to $144 from $120.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. gained after Morgan Stanley raised the price target on the carrier’s stock to $85 from $77.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. asked pilots to take unpaid time off next month, a staffing cutback that could extend into late 2024 as the carrier grapples with delayed deliveries of Boeing Co. planes.
* Nippon Steel Corp. made what it calls a formal commitment on spending and jobs to the United Steelworkers union, backing up a pledge made in an earlier meeting as the Japanese steelmaker looks to build support for its $14.1 billion acquisition of United States Steel Corp.
* Advent International agreed to buy Canadian payments processor Nuvei Corp. for $6.3 billion, including debt, in a further sign that confidence is returning among private equity dealmakers.
* A federal court approved the 3M Co.’s offer of at least $10 billion to settle PFAS claims of roughly 12,000 public water systems across the US.
* Banks led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are launching a debt sale to boost drugmaker Endo International out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
* US factory orders, light vehicle sales, JOLTS job openings, Tuesday
* Fed’s John Williams, Loretta Mester, Mary Daly and Michelle Bowman speak, Tuesday
* St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem takes office, Tuesday. He replaces James Bullard.
* China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
* Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Wednesday
* Japan services PMI, Wednesday
* US ADP employment, ISM Services, Wednesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, Wednesday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Adriana Kugler and Michelle Bowman also speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Challenger job cuts, Thursday
* Fed’s Loretta Mester, Alberto Musalem, Thomas Barkin, Patrick Harker, Austan Goolsbee speak, Thursday
* European Central Bank publishes account of March rate decision, Thursday
* Eurozone retail sales, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman, Thomas Barkin and Lorie Logan speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0742
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.2548
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 151.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $69,648.88
* Ether fell 4.1% to $3,485.04
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 12 basis points to 4.32%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $83.93 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,243.23 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Carly Wanna, Natalia Kniazhevich, Michael Mackenzie and Mark Niquette.

Have a wonderful evening everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“Answers are closed rooms, and questions are open doors that invite us in.”– Nancy Willard.

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
March 28, 1910: The first seaplane in history takes off.  French inventor Henri Fabre’s Canard (Fabre Hydravion)was the first floatplane to take off from the water under its own power.  The first flight measured 457 meters.
On March 28, 1979, America’s worst commercial nuclear accident occurred inside the Unit Two reactor at the Three Mile Island plant near Middletown, Pa.   Go to article >>

Ötzi the Iceman used surprisingly modern technique for his tattoos 5,300 years ago, study suggests
The researchers compared Ötzi’s ancient tattoos with modern tattoos made using different techniques on the skin of one of the authors. Read More

Baltimore bridge collapse: an engineer explains what happened, and what needs to change
Why did the bridge collapse, and what can we do to make other bridges more safe against such collapse? Read More

1st detection of ‘hiccupping’ black hole leads to surprising discovery of 2nd black hole orbiting around it
Scientists found a monster black hole that “hiccups” every 8.5 days, and a smaller black hole that keeps punching through its accretion disk may be to blame. Read More.

Polar vortex is ‘spinning backwards’ above Arctic after major reversal event
Earlier this month, a sudden atmospheric warming event caused the Arctic’s polar vortex to reverse its trajectory. The swirling ring of cold air is now spinning in the wrong direction, which has triggered a record-breaking “ozone spike” and could impact global weather patterns. Read More.

Controversial ‘Titanic’ prop sells at auction
One of the most iconic and hotly-debated props in cinematic history — the floating wood panel from James Cameron’s 1997 movie “Titanic” — recently sold at auction for more than $700,000.

Tiger sharks wearing cameras reveal world’s largest seagrass ecosystem
Scientists fixed tags equipped with cameras onto tiger sharks so that they could view the ocean floor from a new perspective. See the footage here.

The way NFL games start is drastically changing
NFL kickoffs will look dramatically different next season after NFL owners approved new rules that are set to change the way special teams are played.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Les Sables d’Olonne, France
Waves crash against a lighthouse during Storm Nelson
Photograph: Stéphane Mahé/Reuters

Ankara, Turkey
Squirrels scramble up a tree branch at a park as temperatures rise with the arrival of spring
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​London, UK
‘The Millennium Bridge on London’s South Bank looking towards St Paul’s Cathedral.’
Photograph: Nick Baldwin
Market Closes for March 28^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39807.37	+47.29
		+0.12%
S&P 500	5254.35	+5.86
		+0.11%
NASDAQ	16379.46	-20.06
		-0.12%
TSX	22167.03	+59.95
		+0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40168.07	-594.66
		-1.46%
HANG SENG	16541.42	+148.58
		+0.91%
SENSEX	73635.48	+639.17
		+0.88%
FTSE 100*	7952.62	+20.64
		+0.26%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.468	3.440
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.355	3.348
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2003	4.1903
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3427	4.3503

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7386	0.7360
US $	1.3539	1.3587

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4608	0.6846
US $	1.0790	0.9268

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2214.35	2192.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.17	81.62

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1979, a minor malfunction occurred in a cooling mechanism at a nuclear-power plant called Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. One technical error followed another until the malfunction escalated into a “meltdown.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.3%, or 59.95 to 22,167.03 in Toronto.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.9%.
Seabridge Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.2%.
Today, 130 of 224 shares rose, while 92 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.8%
* This month, the index rose 3.8%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 32% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 18.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 4.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.05% compared with 8.25% in the previous session and the average of 11.26% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 50.5873| 2.1| 40/10
Energy | 30.1264| 0.8| 32/8
Financials | 19.7774| 0.3| 14/12
Utilities | 6.6390| 0.8| 10/5
Health Care | 0.0866| 0.1| 3/1
Real Estate | -0.5205| -0.1| 12/9
Consumer Discretionary | -0.7643| -0.1| 7/6
Consumer Staples | -3.0437| -0.3| 3/8
Communication Services | -3.7062| -0.5| 1/4
Industrials | -15.6096| -0.5| 5/22
Information Technology | -23.6059| -1.2| 3/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines | 7.9340| 2.9| -4.5| 11.2
Teck Resources | 7.6650| 4.0| 45.7| 10.7
Bank of Montreal | 7.5050| 1.1| 12.6| 0.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -4.2360| -0.5| 72.7| 13.9
TD Bank | -6.4520| -0.6| 48.5| -4.5
Shopify | -18.5800| -2.1| -41.6| 1.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A stellar quarter for stocks ended on a positive note amid speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to achieve a soft landing that will keep powering Corporate America.
Wall Street traders sent the S&P 500 to its 22nd record this year after data showed the economy is in good shape, offsetting the latest Fedspeak that reinforced bets officials will be in no rush to cut rates. A $4 trillion surge in US equity values in just three months has startled doomsayers, while leaving a host of strategists scrambling to update their 2024 targets.
“We think the market’s view of where economic fundamentals are heading, rather than any one economist’s or strategist’s view, is what ultimately drives stock market pricing,” said Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets.
Stocks edged up after spending most of the day struggling for direction, with investors digesting Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks that he’d like to see “at least a couple months of better inflation data” before slashing rates. Traders also remained reluctant to make any big bets before the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and Jerome Powell’s remarks Friday —when markets will be closed.
The S&P 500 topped 5,250, ending with a quarterly rally of over 10%.
The equity benchmark has only seen double-digit gains for two quarters in a row in five instances since 1950, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, climbed five basis points to 4.62% in a shortened session ahead of the holiday.
The dollar extended its quarterly advance.
“Right or wrong, expectations for a June rate cut probably won’t shift unless inflation continues to rise and the labor market appears to be a major contributor to the increase,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
In economic data, the government’s two main measures of activity — gross domestic product and consumer spending — posted strong advances at the end of last year.
Consumer sentiment rose markedly toward the end of March, supported by strong stock-market gains and expectations that inflation will continue to ease.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, a solid economy — driven by a resilient consumer — sets the table for another strong earnings season.
“For those that are still holding onto the idea that the much-forecasted 2023 recession is right around the corner, they’ve missed an excellent 15 (if not 17) months in the stock market,” Zaccarelli noted.
The S&P 500 will end the year at 5,300 as the consensus real US GDP forecast has climbed in a positive sign for stocks, according to RBC Capital Markets’ Calvasina, who raised her target from 5,150.
The S&P 500 is blowing past milestones this year, even as the rally leads some to worry about the market running too hot.
But now a technical indicator that has an “undefeated” record suggests the momentum isn’t going to fade any time soon.
The relative strength index of the benchmark gauge — which measures price momentum — has closed above a value of 50 for 100 straight trading sessions as of Wednesday’s close, data compiled by SentimenTrader showed.
After a similar show of strength in its price momentum, the S&P 500 was higher every time over the ensuing two, three, six-, and twelve-months periods, the analysis found.
“For now, do not fight the trend — but continue to keep at least one eye on the exits as inflation remains stubborn, macro uncertainty remains elevated, and equity markets remain stretched (overbought) heading into a potentially volatile
election season,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
Since World War II, two straight quarters of double-digit S&P 500 gains would be followed by some weakness in the following month — with the gauge climbing by an average of 12.27% one year later, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

* Apple Inc.’s overseas suppliers have ramped up production of the company’s long-anticipated new iPads and a launch is planned for early May, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Home Depot Inc. told investors it expects to take on $12.5 billion of debt to help fund its planned purchase of building-products distributor SRS Distribution Inc.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. narrowed its fiscal 2024 guidance citing a challenging retail environment, including reduced consumer spending.
* B. Riley Financial Inc., the boutique investment bank facing questions about its dealings with a former business partner, gained extra time to supply missing financial data to its lenders.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. was cut to sell at Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., which cited  “egregiously rich” valuation.
* Estee Lauder Cos. was raised to buy at Bank of America Corp., which said the company’s earnings have now bottomed.
* Country Garden Holdings Co., one of China’s biggest property developers, warned it will miss a deadline for reporting annual results, further complicating plans to restructure its debt following a default last year.

Key events this week:
* Good Friday. Exchanges closed in US and many other countries in observance of holiday. US federal government is open.
* US personal income and spending, PCE deflator, Friday
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0788
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2621
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.39 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $70,872.76
* Ether rose 1.6% to $3,565.65
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.20%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $82.99 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,221.19 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Esha Dey, Jessica Menton and Farah Elbahrawy.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.  Happy Easter J!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You never realize how short a month is until you pay alimony. -John Barrymore, 1882-1942.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
March 27, 1513 Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de Leon sighted Florida.  Go to article >>
March 27, 1871: England and Scotland compete in the first international rugby match.

March 27, 1866: President Andrew Johnson vetoes a civil rights bill which later passes as the 14^th Amendment

William Roentgen, scientist, b. 845
Gloria Swanson, actress, b. 1899
Sarah Vaughan, singer, b. 1924
Mariah Carey, singer, b. 1970.

‘You could almost see and smell their world’: Remnants of ‘Britain’s Pompeii’ reveal details of life in Bronze Age village
Archaeologists are studying a Bronze Age village built on stilts to better understand the lifestyles of the people who lived there. Read More.

Single enormous object left 2 billion craters on Mars, scientists discover
An object that slammed into Mars roughly 2.3 million years ago created 2 billion smaller craters around the main Corinto impact crater, near the Red Planet’s equator. Read More.

Enormous explosions may be visible on the sun during the April 8 solar eclipse
When the moon fully covers the sun on April 8, viewers will have a rare view of the sun’s corona, and everything that explodes out of it.
Full Story: Live Science (3/26)

MIT scientists have just figured out how to make the most popular AI image generators 30 times faster
Scientists have built a framework that gives generative AI systems like DALL·E 3 and Stable Diffusion a major boost by condensing them into smaller models — without compromising their quality. Read More.

Men’s NCAA tournament Final Four is set
You probably weren’t expecting the brackets to look like this! Here are the teams headed to the Final Four following victories by San Diego and Miami.

Easy organization tweaks for your pantry
If you loathe the idea of putting pantry ingredients in clear containers, here’s why you should reconsider your current storage solutions.

‘Succession’ Season 4 opener sets the stage for battles to come
The two-time Emmy-winning HBO show kicked off its final flight of episodes, offering a glimpse into the intense drama ahead. (HBO, like CNN, is a unit of Warner Bros. Discovery.)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
Training sessions on the River Thames in Putney for the Oxford v Cambridge boat race
Photograph: Zac Goodwin/PA

Annemasse, France
‘Spring would not be complete without a picture of cherry blossoms.’
Photograph: Loveleen Saka Momin

​​​​​​​Lake Bohinj, Slovenia
‘We all love a blue sky, but the moody clouds lift this image of my son sitting on a jetty.’
Photograph: Bruce Carr
Market Closes for March 27^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39760.08	+477.75
		+1.22%
S&P 500	5248.49	+44.91
		+0.86%
NASDAQ	16399.52	+83.82
		+0.51%
TSX	22107.08	+194.56
		+0.89%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40762.73	+364.70
		+0.90%
HANG SENG	16392.84	-225.48
		-1.36%
SENSEX	72996.31	+526.01
		+0.73%
FTSE 100*	7931.98	+1.02
		+0.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.440	3.489
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.348	3.409
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1903	4.2316
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3503	4.3971

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7360	0.7362
US $	1.3587	1.3583

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4688	0.6808
US $	1.0812	0.9249

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2192.70	2176.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.62	81.62

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2000: Technology stocks set a record for industry representation in the S&P 500, while Cisco Systems became the world’s most valuable corporation, worth $548 billion. Over the next year, tech stocks lost more than half their value, and Cisco shed over $425 billion.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.9% at 22,107.08 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since March 7 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 193 of 224 shares rose, while 30 fell.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.5%.
Mag Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.5%.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.5%
* This month, the index rose 3.5%
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 32% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on March 21, 2024 and 18.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.47t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.25% compared with 8.87% in the previous session and the average of 11.50% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 64.6011| 2.8| 45/5
Financials | 53.0376| 0.8| 22/5
Industrials | 30.8382| 1.0| 25/2
Energy | 15.4347| 0.4| 37/4
Consumer Discretionary | 8.9174| 1.1| 11/2
Utilities | 7.0307| 0.9| 12/3
Communication Services | 5.9502| 0.8| 4/1
Real Estate | 5.4974| 1.1| 21/0
Health Care | 3.2512| 4.6| 4/0
Consumer Staples | 1.4801| 0.2| 7/3
Information Technology | -1.4727| -0.1| 5/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 15.2600| 1.5| -10.7| -3.9
RBC | 14.8500| 1.1| -34.0| 1.7
Barrick Gold | 10.9200| 4.2| -35.0| -8.1
Open Text | -1.6160| -1.6| -38.0| -5.5
Fairfax Financial | -2.3320| -1.0| -25.3| 20.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks higher in the final stretch of a quarter that saw the market surge almost 10%, with many institutional investors potentially rebalancing their portfolios.
In another volatile session, the S&P 500 closed at a record after almost erasing gains earlier Wednesday.
Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. — this year’s laggards in the mega-cap space — climbed, while Nvidia Corp. fell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added over 1%.
The Nasdaq 100 underperformed.
Treasuries rose, with the market set to close at 2 p.m. New York time on Thursday before the holiday.
Every quarter-end, institutional investors check their market exposures to make sure they meet strict allocation limits between equities and bonds, as well as between domestic and international shares.
With stocks set to cap another strong quarter, pension funds are likely to sell an estimated $32 billion in equities to rebalance their positions, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“At the end of almost every quarter, we hear chatter around Wall Street that there is going to have to be some big rebalancing play,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “Maybe the quarterly rebalancing that everybody talks about each quarter, but rarely has much impact, just might create some more interesting moves before the week (and quarter) are over.”
The S&P 500 approached 5,250.
Merck & Co. rallied as a new drug for a rare form of high blood pressure got US approval.
Former President Donald Trump’s Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. powered higher after a stellar Nasdaq debut.
Treasury 10-year yields declined four basis points to 4.19%.
Traders also awaited Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks at an event after the close.
To Thierry Wizman at Macquarie, Waller may offer a “rebuke of Jay Powell’s dovishness.”
“While not dismissing the prospect of a June cut, Waller may point to sturdy US aggregate demand and ‘sticky’ inflation in the January and February data to justify fewer rate cuts than the median ‘dots’ imply,” Wizman noted.
Gentle rate cuts could create a mildly supportive environment for risk assets — which could also be helped by a high level of cash on the sidelines, according to Kristina Hooper at Invesco.
“For those who believe that such cuts are already priced into stocks and fixed income, I would argue that there are other catalysts” Hooper said. “Keep in mind there is a high level of cash sitting on the sidelines, some of which could rotate into equities and fixed income, especially if rates begin to fall and/or more investors develop a fear of missing out.”
To illustrate, she cited the fact that money-market assets peaked in the fourth quarter of 2008 before dropping significantly.
“It seems no coincidence that cash started to move off the sidelines just as stocks began a strong and lengthy multi-year rally in March of 2009,” she concluded.
After the S&P 500 soared about 25% since late October, many have flagged concern that positioning is stretched and stocks are more vulnerable to short-term profit taking.
A blistering five-month rally in US equities has indeed seen valuations soar, but plenty of corners in the S&P 500 are still historically cheap.
At the sector level, eight of 11 groups trade at a discount compared to pre-pandemic levels — while only technology, materials, and industrials are trading at a premium, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
Meanwhile, nearly three fourths of the gauge trade below its capitalization-weighted price-to-book ratio — a measure that compares market capitalization to book value, used to find undervalued pockets of the market, BI’s analysis showed.
A similar share of companies, 71%, carry forward-price-to earnings multiples beneath the index level, with roughly half below their average before Covid.
“Multiples for the next year appear much loftier than they seem for the S&P 500 index, distorted by analysts’ conservative forecasts for an earnings recovery from the 2022-2023 profit recession,” said a BI team led by Gina Martin Adams.
Trailing 12-month S&P 500 earnings per share contracted 13% from the March 2022 high — well short of the median 25.8% peak-to-trough drop in economic contractions since the 1969-1970 recession, and 16.8% excluding the 2007-09 and 2020 extreme outliers, the BI strategists noted.
Only two recessions — 1980 and 1969-1970 — had shallower drops in earnings.
S&P 500 EPS on median jumped 15.6% in the first 12 months after each recessionary trough since 1969 (excluding 2007-09 and 2020), the analysis showed.
“Perhaps reflecting the smaller-than-usual drop that occurred in this cycle, consensus forecasts a mere 11.1% rise in earnings over the next year,” the strategists concluded.

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc. says it’s investing an additional $2.75 billion in Anthropic, completing a deal it made last year to back the artificial intelligence startup and expand a partnership between the companies.
* Robinhood Markets Inc., best known for offering commission-free trading, is rolling out a credit card to US consumers as it looks to become a broader financial-services company.
* Carnival Corp. slightly raised its outlook for 2024 amid record setting demand for cruises. However, the company also cited a negative impact related to the collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore and is continuing to feel the effects of conflict in the Red Sea region.
* Fisker Inc. dramatically reduced the price of the Ocean sport utility vehicle — its only model — as the electric-car maker struggles to stay in business.

Key events this week:
* UK GDP revision, Thursday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
* Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
* US personal income and spending, PCE deflator, Friday
* Good Friday. Exchanges closed in US and many other countries in observance of holiday. US federal government is open.
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0827
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2638
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 151.33 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $68,745.2
* Ether fell 2.2% to $3,495.85
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.19%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.29%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,194 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jan-Patrick Barnert, Michael Msika and Alexandra Semenova.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Out of suffering have emerged the strongest souls; the most massive characters are seared with scars. –Edwin H. Chapin, 1814-1880.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On March 26, 1979, the Camp David peace treaty was signed by Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat at the White House.  Go to article >>
2000: Ex-KGB officer Vladimir Putin is elected President of Russia.

Beethoven, composer, d. 1827.
Robert Frost, poet, b. 1874.
Victor Frankl, psychiatrist, b. 1905.
Tennessee Williams, playwright, b. 1911.
Erica Jong, writer, b. 1942.
Diana Ross, singer, b. 1944.
Keira Knightly, actress, b. 19856,

Centuries-old Aztec texts detail history of their capital, conquests and fall to the Spanish
Three codices from the 16th and 17th century describe historical details about the Aztecs and the area that is now Mexico City. Read More.

The sea ‘began to boil’: Freak volcanic eruption of Santorini 1,300 years ago indicates huge blasts can occur during time of quiet
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April 8 eclipse could bring uptick in fatal car crashes, scientists caution
An analysis of car crashes during the 2017 solar eclipse in the U.S. suggests the upcoming April eclipse could also come with an uptick in fatal accidents. Read More.

Earth hit by radiation from rare ‘double’ X-class solar flare, triggering most powerful geomagnetic storm in 6 years
A recent X-class flare, which was split into two simultaneous explosions, launched a coronal mass ejection that smashed into Earth, triggering the most powerful disruption to our planet’s magnetic field for more than six years.
Read More.

Colorful paintings of daily life uncovered in 4,300-year-old Egyptian tomb
Archaeologists have discovered paintings of daily life in ancient Egypt in a tomb dating back more than 4,300 years.

The must-have tool for soothing sore muscles
If your muscles are feeling a bit tight, this affordable tool can help relieve myofascial pain, ease tension and increase flexibility.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Edinburgh, Scotland
The first exhibition at the King’s Gallery in the Palace of Holyroodhouse, which showcases Georgian fashion with works by artists including Gainsborough, Zoffany and Hogarth
Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Bells Beach, Australia
Matthew McGillivray of South Africa surfs in his first heat of the 2024 Rip Curl Pro contest
Photograph: Morgan Hancock/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Hong Kong
Continuous, an installation by the Japanese art collective teamLab that features about 200 large ovoid objects that change colour to music, in Tamar Park
Photograph: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for March 26^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39282.33	-31.31
		-0.08%
S&P 500	5203.58	-14.61
		-0.28%
NASDAQ	16315.70	-68.77
		-0.42%
TSX	21912.52	-29.76
		-0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	21912.52	-29.76
		-0.14%
HANG SENG	16618.32	+144.68
		+0.88%
SENSEX	72470.30	-361.64
		-0.50%
FTSE 100*	7930.96	+13.39
		+0.17%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.489	3.489
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.409	3.409
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2316	4.2454
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3971	4.4154

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7362	0.7361
US $	1.3583	1.3585

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4716	0.6795
US $	1.0833	0.9231

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2176.70	2171.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.62	81.84

Market Commentary:
📈 At a meeting in Geneva that started on this day in 1979, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries declared that its members would raise the price of crude oil, igniting another round of global inflation
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.1%, or 29.76 to 21,912.52 in Toronto.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.9%.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.7%.
Today, 115 of 224 shares fell, while 105 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 4.6%
* This month, the index rose 2.6%
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 31% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on March 21, 2024 and 17.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.47t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.87% compared with 11.64% in the previous session and the average of 11.69% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -22.1959| -0.6| 11/29
Materials | -4.3134| -0.2| 18/30
Consumer Staples | -3.3844| -0.4| 6/5
Financials | -2.4593| 0.0| 17/10
Industrials | -1.2020| 0.0| 12/14
Real Estate | -0.9982| -0.2| 12/9
Communication Services | -0.8151| -0.1| 3/2
Utilities | -0.0420| 0.0| 6/9
Information Technology | 1.1577| 0.1| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 2.2216| 0.3| 8/5
Health Care | 2.2848| 3.3| 3/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -6.8270| -0.9| -47.0| 17.5
Enbridge | -5.9440| -0.8| -50.8| 1.4
Brookfield Corp | -5.8990| -1.1| -2.9| 4.8
Intact Financial | 2.3440| 0.9| 70.7| 8.3
Nutrien | 2.3860| 1.0| -18.1| -3.4
Dollarama | 3.1070| 1.6| 16.2| 7.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market failed to hold on to earlier gains after a rally that’s already topped $4 trillion this year, with Nvidia Corp. leading losses in tech mega-caps.
Trading was largely driven by quarter-end positioning.
With the latest bout of equity outperformance, pensions may need to sell roughly $22 billion in global stocks and buy $17 billion of fixed income in order to return to prior asset allocation levels, according to an earlier estimate from Morgan Stanley.
As traders geared up for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Friday — when markets will be closed — they parsed the latest economic readings.
US consumer confidence held steady, durable goods orders climbed while home-price growth accelerated at the fastest rate since 2022.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,210, with Nvidia halting a six-day rally and dropping 2%.
United Parcel Service Inc. fell as investors saw its long-term sales target as hard to meet.
Former president Donald Trump’s startup Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. surged in its first session as a publicly traded company.
Treasuries rebounded from session lows after a $67 billion sale of five year-notes.
The S&P 500 is on track to notch five straight months of gains from November through March — a feat only accomplished one other time this century in 2013.
That set-up has historically underpinned a secular bull run in US stocks that extended at least a year, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
Since 1950, when the equities benchmark posted a consecutive monthly advance from November to March, the S&P 500 rose the remaining nine months of the year in all 11 instances, with an average gain of 12%, he added.
“Strong price momentum, like we have seen over the past five months, tends to occur in the midst of bull markets and is a sign of underlying strength,” said Lerner at Truist. “The rise has been aided by an economy that has exceeded expectations, forward corporate earnings estimates that have moved to record highs, technology leadership, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will start lowering short-term rates later this year.”
While markets appear to be getting stretched, similar past periods of strength have also tended to be a positive when looking out 12 months — with stocks up every time and showing an average gain of 14%, Lerner added.
“Stocks have moved higher in the first quarter in anticipation of the first rate cuts,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise. “We have likely already entered a period where the Federal Reserve is now less likely to surprise the market from here on out.”
Overall, it’s likely that prices keep pushing up into late March given no evidence of technical deterioration, according to Mark Newton at Fundstrat Global Advisors.
“I continue to see the US stock market as being attractive, technically speaking, and do not feel sufficient risk is there to warrant a selloff at this time,” Newton said.
A rally in the S&P 500 to 5,350-5,400 is definitely possible into mid-April — before a consolidation gets underway, he concluded.
For stocks to warrant their multiple expansion in recent months, global central banks must ease monetary policy this year and companies have to deliver healthy earnings growth, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.
“Overall, if central banks turn out to be more dovish than currently projected, but without this being accompanied by growth disappointments, present equity multiples could be defended,” he wrote this week.
If earnings disappoint and central banks are more restrictive, equity multiples would need to fall, he added.
Bank of America Corp.’s institutional, retail, and hedge fund clients were all net sellers of US equities in the week ended March 22, while corporations purchasing their own shares were the sole net buyers.
“As momentum slows and breadth diverges, we believe the S&P 500 could benefit from a healthy pullback of at least 5% toward its 50-day moving average — a level last tested in early November,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
As the big debate unfolds on how concentrated or broad this year’s S&P 500 rally has been, there’s data to support both arguments.
After the year kicked off with gains focused on tech-heavy sectors, the rally has broadened out to other groups like commodities and industrials.
However, looking at the contribution to total returns, 60% of gains in the gauge have been driven by just six stocks: Nvidia Corp., Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Eli Lilly & Co. and Broadcom Inc.
The artificial intelligence furor gripping the stock market has chipmakers like Nvidia Corp. soaring, making them increasingly crucial to the broader S&P 500 rally.
But the stocks are no longer cheap, adding a new level risk to further gains in the equity benchmark.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index is priced around eight times sales, the highest in at least two decades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The S&P 500, by contrast, is priced around 3 times sales.
Relative to the broader benchmark, the chip index is higher than it was during the dot-com peak in 2000.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. iPhone shipments in China fell about 33% in February from a year earlier, according to official data, extending a slump in demand for the flagship device in its most important overseas market.
* Dell Technologies Inc. cut 13,000 employees over the last fiscal year, a steeper reduction in headcount than initially announced.
* McDonald’s Corp. will bring Krispy Kreme Inc.’s doughnuts to its restaurants across the US, marking the burger chain’s latest effort to attract diners for breakfast and all-day snacking.
* Short sellers are still betting billions of dollars that the rally in cryptocurrency-linked stocks fueled by a surge in Bitcoin will eventually end.
** Total short interest, or the amount that contrarian traders have pledged against crypto stocks, has increased to nearly $11 billion this year, according to a report from S3 Partners LLC on Monday. More than 80% of total short interest in the sector are bets against MicroStrategy Inc. and Coinbase Global Inc.
* Michael Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. swung to a profit in the fourth quarter, bolstered by rising digital asset prices and increased trading volumes.
* Viking Therapeutics Inc. unveiled results from an early study of its experimental weight-loss pill, a product expected to  compete with popular obesity shots.
* Rite Aid Corp. is nearing a deal with key bondholders and other creditor groups that will allow the pharmacy chain to avoid a liquidation, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Key events this week:
* China industrial profits, Wednesday
* Bank of England issues financial policy committee minutes, Wednesday
* Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Wednesday
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Wednesday
* UK GDP revision, Thursday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
* Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
* US personal income and spending, PCE deflator, Friday
* Good Friday. Exchanges closed in US and many other countries in observance of holiday. US federal government is open.
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index fell 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0830
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2625
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 151.58 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $69,538.32
* Ether fell 1.9% to $3,561.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.35%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.97%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $81.49 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,177.89 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Jeran Wittenstein, Lu Wang and Tatiana Darie.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Never forget what a man says to you when he is angry. -Henry Ward Beecher, 1813-1887.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com