Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On May 7, 1945, Germany signed an unconditional surrender at Allied headquarters in Rheims, France, to take effect the following day, ending the European conflict of World War II. Go to article >>
1955: West European Union formed.
May 7, 2000: Vladimir Putin becomes President of Russia.

1824: Premiere of Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony.

Pyotr Tchaikovsky, composer, b. 1840.
Gary Cooper, actor, b. 1901.
Eva Peron, Argentina’s “Evita”, b.1919.

Here’s what happened at the Met Gala
The Met Gala, an annual, invitation-only event, was held Monday in New York City. See photos from one of fashion’s biggest nights.

Kremlin critic wins Pulitzer Prize
Vladimir Kara-Murza, a prominent Russian human rights advocate and Kremlin critic, has won the Pulitzer Prize for commentary written from his prison cell.

Siberia’s ‘gateway to the underworld’ is growing a staggering amount each year
The Batagay megaslump — a 3,250-foot-wide (990 meters) depression in the permafrost in the Russian Far East — is “actively growing” by a massive amount every year, scientists have found. Read More.

Iron Age necropolis that predates Rome unearthed near Naples
The excavations have recovered weapons, necklaces, bracelets and worked bones. Read More.

Earth from space: Mysterious wave ripples across ‘galaxy’ of icebergs in Arctic fjord
A puzzling arc was spotted in the water of a Greenland fjord littered with iceberg fragments. There are a couple of possible explanations for this bizarre phenomenon but we will likely never know what caused it,
experts say. Read More.

Mars may have been more Earth-like than we thought, discovery of oxygen-rich rocks reveals
Newfound rocks on Mars suggest the planet may have once sported an oxygen-rich atmosphere, making it more Earth-like and hospitable to life than previously thought. Read More.

‘Major lunar standstill’ may reveal if Stonehenge is aligned with the moon
Is Stonehenge aligned with the moon? Scientists hope to find out during a rare “major lunar standstill,” which happens once every 18.6 years. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wehrheim, Germany
A deer stands in deep grass near Frankfurt
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Stroud, UK
The Miserden Morris dancing group perform at sunrise on Rodborough Common as part of the May Day celebrations
Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty

​​​​​​​Hastings, UK
Participants attend the annual May Day bank holiday Jack In The Green parade and festival in East Sussex
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Market Closes for May 7^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38884.26	+31.99
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5187.70	+6.96
		+0.13%
NASDAQ	16332.55	-16.70
		-0.10%
TSX	22290.62	+31.15
		+0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38835.10	+599.03
		+1.57%
HANG SENG	18479.37	-98.93
		-0.53%
SENSEX	73895.54	+17.39
		+0.02%
FTSE 100*	8313.67	+100.18
		+1.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.584	3.612
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.470	3.507
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4570	4.4833
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5974	4.6338

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7281	0.7317
US $	1.3734	1.3667

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4764	0.6773
US $	1.0750	0.9302

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2294.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.48	78.11

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1825, one of the earliest buying frenzies for an American IPO was reported when the Bank of Southwark went public in Philadelphia. Investors hired muscular goons to sign their names into the subscription books, and “noses were smashed, hats jammed in, and the police court was at work over the wounded for weeks after.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.1%, or 31.15 to 22,290.62 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since April 9.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%.
Finning International Inc. had the largest increase, rising 3.5%.
Today, 104 of 223 shares rose, while 111 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 8.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 19.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.7% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.78% compared with 9.79% in the previous session and the average of 8.30% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 26.4163| 0.6| 25/12
Materials | 23.2820| 0.9| 36/13
Information Technology | 1.0468| 0.1| 5/5
Communication Services | 0.1890| 0.0| 4/1
Utilities | -0.4031| 0.0| 4/10
Consumer Discretionary | -0.7620| -0.1| 6/7
Health Care | -0.7785| -1.2| 0/4
Real Estate | -3.3788| -0.7| 4/16
Financials | -3.4011| -0.1| 8/18
Consumer Staples | -4.9737| -0.6| 2/9
Industrials | -6.0830| -0.2| 10/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 10.4300| 1.1| 6.5| -11.3
Canadian Natural Resources | 7.7310| 1.0| -41.4| 20.8
Nutrien | 6.9880| 2.7| -11.8| 1.6
WSP Global | -3.8200| -2.0| 16.5| 15.5
Bank of Montreal | -4.3630| -0.7| 16.7| -3.7
RBC | -4.8220| -0.4| 9.8| 3.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The rally that has powered stocks in May struggled gain much traction on Tuesday, with investors split on whether the market can sustain the advance given all the economic crosscurrents.
Equities are set for a consolidation amid stretched positioning, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
Meantime, a pair of contrarian sentiment indicators from Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are on the cusp of levels that say it’s time to snap up shares.
And Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Commodity Trading Advisors have lifted their stock exposure and are expected to keep buying regardless of the market direction this week.
Stocks have been trying to make a comeback after April’s rout, with gains fueled by prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts and solid earnings.
While the S&P 500 recently broke above a key technical level, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. says he’d like to see a bit more upside follow-through to confirm the “break.”
“We continue to see a path higher for stock prices as long as fundamental conditions remain stable and profit growth remains on a positive trend,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Elevated interest rates and sticky inflation, along with the Fed holding monetary policy at restrictive levels for longer than most expected at the start of the year, introduce some added risks.”
The S&P 500 briefly hit 5,200.
Peloton Interactive Inc. soared as CNBC reported that a number of private-equity firms are mulling a buyout.
Walt Disney Co. sank on a weak subscriber outlook.
Apple Inc. saw a small gain after unveiling a new artificial intelligence-focused iPad Pro and a larger iPad Air.
Treasury 10-year yields fell three basis points to 4.45%.
A $58 billion sale of three-year notes garnered solid demand.
This week’s offerings also include $42 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday.
Despite resilient consumption and artificial-intelligence optimism, US economic growth slid last quarter while inflation stayed high.
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday it’s likely the central bank will keep rates where they are “for an extended period of time” until officials are certain prices are on track to their target.
Economists at Morgan Stanley changed their forecast for the timing of the Fed’s first cut to September from July because of “lack of progress” on inflation.
US growth momentum is resilient, but likely slowing, and that could weigh on equities, which have decoupled from the Fed by assuming that an acceleration in growth was lying ahead, a JPMorgan team led by Mislav Matejka wrote.
The equity rally “created a complacent technical picture,” with sentiment and positioning indicators still near highs, despite some recent consolidation, they said.
“While internals improved, our breadth indicators remain in confirmed sell signals,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler in a note titled “Not Out of the Woods Yet.”
The biggest buyers of US equities, American companies, are back in the market and ready to drive the next leg of the stock rally, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
About a sixth of the $934 billion in estimated share repurchases this year are expected get executed in May and June, the firm’s tactical specialist Scott Rubner wrote.
All major Bank of America Corp. client groups offloaded US equities last week, quantitative strategists at the firm said Tuesday.
Institutional clients, hedge funds and retail investors sold a net $4.6 billion of US stocks in the five-day period ended Friday, a team led by Jill Carey Hall said in a note.
Meantime, buying options to protect against a stock-market plunge hit the cheapest in nine years this week.
As the CBOE Volatility Index — or VIX, which measures expected swings in equity markets — sank over the past couple weeks, so did an index tracking the implied volatility of VIX options, known as the VVIX.
The VVIX finished Monday’s session just above 73, its lowest closing value since May 2015.
The index advanced Tuesday, while holding well below its one-year average of 89.
“Over the near term, US benchmarks can continue to push back toward their recent 2024 highs,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“However, we do not believe that the signals for further volatility ahead have been canceled/negated at this time — and thus we continue to watch for another potential down-leg in US equities over the coming weeks.” To Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management, investors should stay vigilant on a range of economic and geopolitical risks that could send market volatility back up again.
“Investors can mitigate such volatility and keep their portfolios on track by diversifying and balancing across asset classes,” she noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Palantir Technologies Inc. tumbled as the market appeared unimpressed by the company’s outlook for annual sales after the stock has tripled in the past year.
* Instacart is partnering with Uber Technologies Inc. to offer restaurant delivery through the Instacart app — taking on the top US food delivery app, DoorDash Inc.
* Boeing Co. has been in crisis mode ever since the near-catastrophic accident on a 737 Max 9 in early January — and there’s little sign it’s catching a break anytime soon as the next investigation looms — this time involving the flagship 787 Dreamliner model.
* Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. expects to produce Boeing Co. 737 Max aircraft bodies at a lowered rate for the rest of the year, pressuring its finances as the two companies work to improve quality in their factories.
* Lucid Group Inc. revealed a wider-than-expected loss to start the year as the company contends with production challenges and uneven demand for high-end electric vehicles.
* Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox gaming division will shut down four subsidiaries, including the game studio Arkane Austin, according to an email reviewed by Bloomberg.
* Truist Financial Corp. boosted its revenue forecast for the year after it completed the sale of a majority stake in its insurance-brokerage business.
* UBS Group AG returned to profit after two loss-making quarters, cementing sustained progress in the integration of Credit Suisse after its emergency rescue last year.

Key events this week:
* Toyota earnings, Wednesday
* Germany industrial production, Wednesday
* Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions from April policy meeting, Thursday
* China trade, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0756
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2509
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 154.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $63,018.51
* Ether fell 0.9% to $3,049.32
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 4.12%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,315.07 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Carly Wanna, Thyagu Adinarayan and Michael Msika.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Logic will take you from A to B.  Imagination will take you everywhere. -Albert Einstein, 1879-1955.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

May 6, 1527: Sack of Rome.
On May 6, 1937, the hydrogen-filled German dirigible Hindenburg burned and crashed in Lakehurst, N.J., killing 36 of the 97 people on board. Go to article >>

Sigmund Freud, founder of psychoanalysis, b. 1856.
Orson Welles, b. 1915.
George Clooney, b. 1961.

The 2024 Met Gala is today
Stars will soon showcase a plethora of bold and outlandish outfits at the Met Gala in New York. Read about this year’s theme.

Free Madonna concert attracts 1.6 million to Brazil’s Copacabana beach
More than a million people braved the heat of Rio de Janeiro to see the end of Madonna’s “Celebration” world tour.

Mystik Dan wins 150th Kentucky Derby in a dramatic photo finish
Did you watch the Kentucky Derby on Saturday — yay or neigh? In case you missed it, here are photos from the thrilling finish at Churchill Downs.

What is a vegetable?
Fun fact: The term vegetable doesn’t exist botanically. Here’s why you should eat them anyway.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot air balloons fly over the Cappadocia region, which is famous for its fairy chimneys
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

Waterlooville, UK
The Green Man and his queen perform during the Celtic fire festival Beltain in Hampshire in southern England. The modern participatory arts event celebrates the Gaelic May Day festival and marks the beginning of summer. Historically it was widely observed in Ireland, Scotland and the Isle of Man
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Bulacan, the Philippines
People across the country have sort ways to stay cool during a deadly heatwave that has led to school closures and triggered urgent health warnings across south-east Asia
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock
Market Closes for May 6^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38852.27	+176.59
		+0.46%
S&P 500	5180.74	+52.95
		+1.03%
NASDAQ	16349.25	+192.92
		+1.19%
TSX	22259.47	+312.06
		+1.42%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38236.07	-37.98
		-0.10%
HANG SENG	18578.30	+102.38
		+0.55%
SENSEX	73895.54	+17.39
		+0.02%
FTSE 100*	8213.49	+41.34
		+0.51%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.612	3.648
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.507	3.553
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4833	4.5077
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6338	4.6645

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7317	0.7314
US $	1.3667	1.3672

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4718	0.6794
US $	1.0770	0.9285

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2294.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.11	78.11

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1870, Amadeo Giannini was born. In San Francisco in 1904 he founded the Bank of Italy to serve the city’s burgeoning working class. It later financed the Golden Gate Bridge and lent David Selznick the money to finish filming “Gone With the Wind.” Today, as Bank of America, it is one of the world’s biggest financial-services firms.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 1.4%, or 312.06 to 22,259.47 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.6% on Feb. 15.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 187 of 223 shares rose, while 32 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
Aritzia Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.1%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain seven times. The next day, it advanced six times for an average 0.7% and declined 0.5% once
* The index advanced 8.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.48t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.79% compared with 8.85% in the previous session and the average of 8.23% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 72.4144| 1.1| 24/2
Energy | 61.5976| 1.5| 38/2
Industrials | 52.7268| 1.7| 23/4
Information Technology | 52.1264| 2.8| 8/2
Materials | 47.7803| 1.8| 43/6
Utilities | 11.5905| 1.4| 13/2
Consumer Staples | 5.6840| 0.6| 9/2
Real Estate | 4.5624| 1.0| 16/3
Consumer Discretionary | 2.5624| 0.3| 7/6
Communication Services | 1.8073| 0.3| 4/1
Health Care | -0.8025| -1.2| 2/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 32.2800| 3.8| 70.6| 2.4
Constellation Software | 15.4400| 3.1| 29.6| 14.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 15.2600| 2.2| -35.7| 6.3
Bausch Health | -0.8480| -3.8| 62.5| -3.4
First Quantum Minerals | -1.0410| -1.1| -6.7| 69.3
Restaurant Brands | -1.6170| -0.7| -22.3| -0.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw their best three-day rally since November, fueled by speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year.
The S&P 500 rose 1% after topping its average price of the past 50 days — a level seen by many chartists as key in maintaining the positive sentiment.
A solid earnings season kept driving optimism after a pullback that made some areas of the market attractive.
While the below-average trading volume raised concern about the sustainability of the advance, most industries gained.
“Bulls will be looking to maintain their momentum after snatching last week from the jaws of bears,” according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“This week is light on high-profile economic data, but heavy on Fed members hitting the speaking circuit.
Traders will be dissecting any comments they make about potential rate cuts.”
The US equity benchmark rose above 5,180.
Nvidia Corp. and  Tesla Inc. paced gains in mega-caps.
Micron Technology Inc. jumped on an analyst upgrade.
Apple Inc. fell, with Warren Buffett revealing he’d cut his stake even after heaping praise on the iPhone maker.
Treasury 10-year yields slid two basis points to 4.49%.
Traders also kept an eye on the latest geopolitical developments, with Israel rejecting a statement from Hamas that it had accepted a cease-fire proposal to end the fighting in Gaza.
Oil closed higher.
Following Jerome Powell’s not-very-hawkish tone last Wednesday, investors waded through remarks from some of the many Fed officials due to speak this week.
Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he expects high rates to slow the economy further and cool inflation to the 2% target.
His New York counterpart John Williams said eventually there will be rate cuts — but the decision on when will depend on the totality of the data.
Despite pressure from still elevated rates, strong corporate results have justified high stock valuations, according to strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute.
“Solid corporate earnings keep us overweight US stocks,” a team led by Jean Boivin and Wei Li said Monday in their weekly market commentary.
More than 80% of the S&P 500 companies have now reported first-quarter earnings, and profit growth has easily surpassed “mediocre expectations”, according to Gina Martin Adams at Bloomberg Intelligence.
The index is now on pace for a 6.5% earnings growth, almost double pre-season estimates of 3.75%, she noted.
Bets on double-digit earnings growth this year for companies in the S&P 500 are too lofty as Corporate America is likely to be challenged by higher rates, according to JPMorgan Chase Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.
“Consensus earnings expectations for this year look too optimistic,” he wrote.
Analyst projections imply S&P 500 earnings will rise 17% from the first to fourth quarter, a feat that requires high topline growth or substantial expansion, he added.
“Better than expected Q1 S&P 500 earnings and the recent pullback in stock prices brought P/E multiples of several key US benchmarks back to attractive levels in our view,” said John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
The backdrop for stocks remains supportive, driven by healthy and broadening profit growth, inflation that will likely resume falling, a Fed that is more likely to cut than hike rates, and surging investment in artificial intelligence,
according to David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial remarked that stock-market breadth remains robust and momentum is also improving.
Meantime, hedge funds are reversing their bearish stance on consumer stocks as the latest economic data and comments from the Fed revive bets on rate cuts.
After four weeks of selling, hedge funds last week piled into consumer discretionary stocks, which saw the largest net buying during the week ended May 3, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk.
The move was driven by long buys as well as the largest short covering since December 2023.
“Mixed” messages from key US economic data and the accompanying swings in stock markets mean investors should load up on defensive sectors such as consumer staples, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
A soft landing or a so-called no landing, where growth is resilient even as rates stay high, both remain possible for the US economy, the team led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note.
This uncertain backdrop warrants an investment approach that can work as market pricing and leadership between groups of stocks gets whipsawed by the potential outcomes.
In corporate earnings, Arm Holdings Plc should show it continued to benefit from artificial-intelligence demand when it reports this week.
Airbnb Inc. may be among gig economy companies posting slower growth.
Uber Technologies Inc. should be a bright spot as it expands its pool of drivers and merchants, drawing more active users.
Walt Disney Co., fresh off a victory in its proxy fight against activist investor Nelson Peltz, is set to impress as cost-cutting efforts take hold, the bet on streaming gets closer to paying off and its theme parks keep drawing visitors.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. faces a new investigation by US aviation safety regulators tied to inspections of the company’s 787 Dreamliner and whether employees may have falsified records.
* The US Securities and Exchange Commission warned Robinhood Markets Inc. that it faces an enforcement action over its crypto business — the latest sign that the regulator isn’t letting up on its years-long crackdown on digital assets.
* Chip-design company Synopsys Inc. is selling its software integrity business to two private equity firms for as much as $2.1 billion in cash.
* Tyson Foods Inc. said persistent inflation has eroded consumers’ appetite for the branded and ready-to-eat offerings accounting for most of the company’s profits.
* United States Steel Corp. was raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley, based on prospects for “transformational” investments.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods foresees arbitration with Chevron Corp. over a premier Guyanese asset stretching into 2025 due to the importance of the case to both companies.
* Brookfield Asset Management struck a partnership with Castlelake LP to get a majority share of the private debt firm’s fee-related earnings, another move in the Canadian investing giant’s effort to grow its credit business.

Key events this week:
* Australia rate decision, Tuesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Tuesday
* UBS earnings, Walt Disney, BP earnings, Tuesday
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Tuesday
* Toyota earnings, Wednesday
* Germany industrial production, Wednesday
* Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions from April policy meeting, Thursday
* China trade, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0767
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2560
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 153.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $63,198.63
* Ether fell 2.2% to $3,069.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.47%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.22%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $78.63 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,325.39 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Natalia Kniazhevich.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Men are more moral than they think and far more immoral than they can imagine. –Sigmund Freud, 1856-1939.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

May 3, 1978: The Digital Equipment Corporation send the world’s first spam email.  It was promoting mainframe  computers for sale.
1981: The space shuttle Columbia blasted off from Cape Canaveral, Fla., on its first test flight.  Go to article >>

May 3, 1971: National Public Radio 1st News Broadcast.

Niccolo Macchiavelli, statesman, b. 1469.
Golda Meir, Israeli Prime Minister, b. 1898.
Pete Saeger, musician, b. 1919.
James Brown, singer, b. 1928.

Orangutan observed treating wound using medicinal plant
Scientists working in Indonesia have observed an orangutan intentionally treating a wound on its face with a medicinal plant, the first time this behavior has been documented.

Certified emotional support alligator is missing
The search is on to find Wally, a “gentle” emotional support alligator currently on the loose in Georgia.

Hockey crowd erupts when daughter mimics dad’s chugging
Who chugs their beverage better, dad or daughter? Watch this video to see a fun jumbotron chugathon.

‘Ping pong-sized’ hailstones ravage famous French wine region
A violent hailstorm wreaked havoc on vineyards in Chablis, ripping plants apart in the latest weather-related blow to hit local Chardonnay winemakers.

Women need to exercise and eat differently than men. Here’s how
You may have heard about the benefits of intermittent fasting and strength training. But are they equally beneficial to men and women? Not necessarily.

Neanderthal woman’s face brought to life in stunning reconstruction
With her long, brown hair and determined gaze, the new facial reconstruction lets us peek into the world of an archaic human who lived tens of thousands of years ago. Read More.

‘You certainly don’t see this every day’: Ultra-rare backward-spinning tornado formed over Oklahoma
A pair of odd twisters spun out from a supercell thunderstorm in Oklahoma Tuesday (April 30). Read More.

Asteroid that exploded over Berlin was fastest-spinning space rock ever recorded
Scientists have calculated the rotational speed of asteroid 2024 BX1, which exploded over Berlin earlier this year, by letting it trail in images of the sky. It turns out, 2024 BX1 was spinning faster than any other near-Earth object ever seen. Read More.

Optical illusion reveals key brain rule that governs consciousness A study of mice starts to unravel how the brain gets tricked by this kind of optical illusion, and it gives clues about how visual perception works. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY 

Agassiz, Canada
A young girl runs between rows of flowers at the Harrison tulip festival in British Columbia
Photograph: Canadian Press/Rex/Shutterstock

A field hamster peeks out of its burrow in Euskirchen, Germany. About a dozen captive-bred hamsters have been released into the wild there in the hope that this will prevent the species’ extinction. They are much bigger than domestic pet hamsters – even longer in the body than a guinea pig, although not as rotund
Photograph: Oliver Berg/dpa

​​​​​​​Rimini, Italy
This multi-exposure photograph shows an athlete competing in the rings during the men’s individual apparatus final at the Artistic Gymnastics European Championships
Photograph: Gabriel Bouys/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 3^rd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38675.68	+450.02
		+1.18%
S&P 500	5127.79	+63.59
		+1.26%
NASDAQ	16156.33	+315.37
		+1.99%
TSX	21947.41	+124.19
		+0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38236.07	-37.98
		-0.10%
HANG SENG	18475.92	+268.79
		+1.48%
SENSEX	73878.15	-732.96
		-0.98%
FTSE 100*	8123.49	+41.34
		+0.51%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.648	3.737
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.553	3.628
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5077	4.5811
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6645	4.7284

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7315
US $	1.3672	1.3670

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4724	0.6792
US $	1.0769	0.9286

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2302.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.11	78.95

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 11000 for the first time, just 24 trading days after breaking the 10000 mark—the shortest interval on record between 1000-point milestones.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.6%, or 124.19 to 21,947.41 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since April 23.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 10.7%.
Today, 130 of 223 shares rose, while 89 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 7.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.9% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 17.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.46t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.85% compared with 8.77% in the previous session and the average of 8.03% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 32.7489| 1.8| 9/1
Financials | 28.6073| 0.4| 24/2
Industrials | 17.2424| 0.6| 17/9
Materials | 15.1261| 0.6| 21/29
Utilities | 9.0940| 1.1| 11/3
Communication Services | 7.5190| 1.1| 3/2
Energy | 4.9798| 0.1| 12/28
Real Estate | 4.0549| 0.9| 17/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.3334| 0.4| 7/6
Consumer Staples | 1.5407| 0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -0.0532| -0.1| 3/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 28.4900| 3.4| 24.2| -1.3
RBC | 25.9900| 1.9| -1.1| 3.3
Brookfield Corp | 13.5100| 2.4| -2.7| 9.7
Magna Intl | -4.3120| -3.5| 22.6| -18.4
Open Text | -13.6200| -14.8| 572.8| -25.7
TD Bank | -57.6300| -5.8| 59.0| -12.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks notched their biggest advance since February as a slowdown in US jobs sent bond yields sliding, with traders reviving bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
A softer-than-estimated payrolls number — that did not signal the labor market is rolling over — and a cooldown in wages appeased investors worrying about “stagflation” or a recession.
Instead, the latest employment print gave fodder to the believers in an economy that is gradually slowing and would allow a data-dependent Fed to start easing policy as early as September.
“The payroll miss hands the baton to the bulls,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Markets are rallying aggressively as incoming data point to a shorter journey across the monetary-policy bridge.”
The S&P 500 rose 1.3%, with equities also buoyed by Apple Inc.’s post-earnings surge.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 2%. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — sank to an over one-month low.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, dropped seven basis points to 4.81%.
Swap traders are now projecting around 50 basis points of policy easing this year — which would equate to two rate cuts.
The dollar saw its worst week since March.
A litany of weaker-than-estimated data points this week — from jobs to services and manufacturing — put the focus back on the “bad news is good news” narrative.
The US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index — which measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations — hit the lowest since February 2023.
Nonfarm payrolls advanced 175,000 in April, the smallest gain in six months.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% and wage gains slowed.
“The softer-than-expected payroll report suggests there is no heat in the economy that should keep inflation persistently high, which increases odds for rate cuts this year,” said Sonu Varghese at Carson Group.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg Television that additional jobs reports like Friday’s would give him comfort the economy is not overheating.
Speaking separately, Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation will likely remain elevated for “some time,” but added she still anticipates price gains will eventually cool with rates held at current levels.
Following Wednesday’s Fed decision, Chair Jerome Powell noted it’s unlikely the next move would be to raise rates.
Being weaker across the board, the April employment report vindicates Powell’s decision not to lurch hawkish at the May meeting and “is good news for the Fed and the market,” according to Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“We feel somewhat more confident in our base case that the Fed will start cutting by September,” Guha added.
To Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management, the latest jobs report indeed brings the rate-cutting dialogue back into the market and perhaps explains why Powell was able to lean more dovish on Wednesday.
“This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” Shah noted.
“Of course, today’s weaker numbers need to mark the start of a new slower trend for multiple rate cuts to seriously be back on the agenda – but, by then, the new fear could be a slowing economy.”
Separate data Friday showed the US services sector unexpectedly contracted in April for the first time since 2022 as a gauge of business activity slumped to a four-year low and a measure of input costs rose.
“Today’s jobs report is the definition of Goldilocks: job growth that is gradually moving back to around trend amid a normalization of wage growth,” said Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“This is certainly the type of employment report that Fed officials will welcome. We remain optimistic that the Fed will first ease rates at its September FOMC meeting.”
Overall, market observers say signs of a cooling economy could nudge the Fed to lower interest rates over time — but that inflation data would be vital.
“Worried that the US economy is overheating? The April employment report throws a bit of cold water on that idea,” said Mark Hamrick at Bankrate.
“The data will need to align for the Fed to gain confidence that inflation is getting closer to its 2% target before pulling a rate cut trigger. It remains on high alert for unacceptably high inflation.”
A rally in US stocks faltered last month as the Fed signaled it would hold interest rates higher for longer amid elevated inflation.
A sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter has also raised “stagflation” chatter — though many market observers have downplayed that possibility at this stage.
To Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the latest jobs report should be perceived by markets as a “welcome breath of fresh air as it will hush the hawkish undertone in the market and any recent ‘stagflation’ fears.”
While Fed officials will likely be relieved that the labor market is cooling, this report is not soft enough to change the Fed outlook, according to Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“Hiring was strong, unemployment remains low, and wages are likely to tick up again next month,” she noted.
Wilding bets the Fed will try to get at least one cut in this year, but she still expects the central bank to take one or two cuts out of its rate-path projections when it releases new Summary of Economic Projections in June.
Back in March, Fed officials maintained their outlook for three interest-rate cuts in 2024.
“If inflation does not breakout and jobs data stays moderate, a first rate cut could be due in September, but we expect the Fed to remain very dependent on incoming data, meeting by meeting,” said Larry Tentarelli at Blue Chip Daily
Trend Report.
Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance says that as long as the Fed maintains rates where they are — or cuts once or twice — the market can keep moving higher.

More Comments on Jobs:
* Michael Kantrowitz at Piper Sandler & Co.:  Soft macroeconomic data is needed to bring rates down and stocks up. Bullish all day.
* David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US:   The April employment report supports the optimism expressed by Jerome Powell on Wednesday regarding how the economy would unfold in coming months, settling into a slower rate of growth with inflation coming down.  Following the April jobs report, there is rising optimism that the Fed may be more supportive of the markets now pricing in two possible rate cuts this year.

* Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management:  Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s hesitancy to cut interest rates in the near-term, as there have still been several months of strong
jobs and inflation data and it’s clear that inflation is still too far above the Fed’s 2% target to justify a rate cut. 

* David Mazza at Roundhill Investments:  While one softer-than-expected jobs report will not be enough to bias the Fed to cut at their next meeting, it shows the labor market may be starting to materially cool.  More importantly, wage growth was lower than expected, which is a positive sign for inflation. In short, this coupled with Apple’s earnings report, will put the bulls in charge to close out a busy macro week.

* Mohamed El-Erian at Queens’ College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist:  A goldilocks report that will please the Fed and please the markets.  I’m not particularly surprised on the miss on job creation, because we have been running at very high levels for the year.  I’m a little surprised on the wage, the 0.2%, that is the one that surprises me. That’s something that one needs to look at much more closely.

* Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management:  Overall, data from the April labor market report dampened the market’s view on how strong the US economy is running and has allowed the possibility of rate cuts this year to come back into the conversation. At any rate, the Fed will certainly welcome the data as it should relieve some of the pressure around the higher-for-longer policy narrative.

* Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial:  The demand for labor is slowing which will eventually ease inflation pressures, giving the Fed some leeway to cut rates later this year. Slower payroll growth and fewer hours worked imply the economy is slowing at a measured pace. This jobs report is consistent with the soft landing narrative.

* Bret Kenwell at eToro:  The April jobs report appears to be a Goldilocks print for investors. The April jobs report doesn’t create an urgent concern for the labor market or the economy, and it found a way to thread the needle between being soft enough, but not too weak.  The bond market is back to pricing in two rate cuts for the year, which is a relief to stock and crypto bulls.  Investors do not want to cheer for labor market deterioration. While some softness will help grease the wheels for looser financial policy from the Fed, persistent weakness in the jobs market would be a clear negative for the market.

* Ronald Temple at Lazard:  Today’s payroll report combined with the job opening and quit data all point to easing of labor market tightness, which should translate to lower wage and inflation pressure, opening the door for rate cuts as early as the September meeting.

* George Mateyo at Key Wealth:  Just what the Fed Chair wanted! Today’s employment report was weaker than expected. Yet, the weakness was not so weak to suggest that the labor market is rolling over. It was a slowdown that the Fed and many market participants have been wanting for some time.  Rate cuts will come back into focus, and investors should remain vigilant for larger slowdowns in the month ahead. But today, this small amount of bad news relative to expectations will be viewed as good news, and suggest the economy is moderating but remains on solid ground.

* Chris Low at FHN Financial:  Today’s report was a far cry from the kind of labor market weakness that would prompt a Fed rate cut. Nevertheless, more abundant labor and slower job and wage growth should help contain inflation, and that is the key to rate cuts. Hence, odds of a September rate cut have climbed.

* Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley:  Following a steady stream of sticky inflation data in recent months, today’s much-weaker-than-expected jobs report had \to bring smiles to the faces of the Fed board. It may not put a
June rate cut back on the table, but unless it turns out to be an anomaly, it will increase the odds that the Fed will be able to get in at least one cut this year.

* Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab UK:  Investors will interpret today’s weak jobs report as a sign that demand is slowing in the labor market. A dive in the labor market may be what it takes to push the Fed from a stroll to a sprint.

* Andrew Brenner at NatAlliancer Securities:  Weaker number, increased unemployment rate, and lower wage growth. Looks like a Goldilocks report.

* Matt Peron at Janus Henderson Investors:  The NFP report was a big sigh of relief for markets, with a softer job market and importantly a softer average hourly earnings readout.  Taken together, this should give markets some hope that inflation is not as sticky as feared and raises the possibility of getting back on the disinflation trend we saw last year.  In terms of markets, this should be a big boost given the negativity around sticky inflation of late, and if  confirmed, can bring the prospect of rate cuts back into the picture for 2024.

* Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors:  What will the Fed make of this? At last there is evidence of some weakness in the US jobs market. Rate cuts will move back up the agenda as a result and there is little doubt that markets
will take this as good news. While we shouldn’t make too much of single data prints, this could be the start of a positive trend for the Fed.

* Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management:  This report is generally good news for the markets, especially for bondholders. It could herald a period of at least \stable interest rates, accompanied by a gradual weakening of the
US dollar. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. posted stronger-than-expected sales last quarter and predicted a return to growth in the current period, sparking optimism that a slowdown is easing. Profit also topped Wall Street projections in the period, and Apple announced the biggest stock buyback in US history.
* Amgen Inc.’s shares soared after its chief executive officer said he was “very encouraged” by early results from a study of the company’s experimental obesity drug, MariTide.
* Société Generale SA equities traders outshone their bond-trading counterparts for a fourth straight quarter, with revenue from the unit helping the French bank beat estimates for profit in the three months through March.
* Booking Holdings Inc., owner of travel brands Kayak and Priceline, said it expects room-night reservations to slow in the current quarter as tensions in the Middle East curb regional tourism.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0764
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2549
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 152.89 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.7% to $62,103.17
* Ether rose 2.9% to $3,074.41
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.22%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $78.14 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,301.47 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Let your life lightly dance on the edges of Time like dew on the tip of a leaf. –Rabindranath Tagore, 1861-1941.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Robert’s Rules of Order Day.

May 2, 1611: King James Bible first published.
May 2, 1989: The Iron Curtain begins to crumble as Hungary dismantles its border fence.
1932: Pearl S. Buck wins the Pulitzer Prize.
1941: General Mills began shipping a new cereal called “Cheerioats” to six test markets. (The cereal was later renamed “Cheerios.”) The home of Cheerios is Buffalo, NY.  Go to article >>

Leonardo da Vinci, d. 1519.
Henry M. Robert, General, b.1837.
Benjamin Spock, pediatrician, b. 1903.
Naomi Campbell, model, b. 1970.

Stunning image shows atoms transforming into quantum waves — just as Schrödinger predicted
A new imaging technique, which captured frozen lithium atoms transforming into quantum waves, could be used to probe some of the most poorly understood aspects of the quantum world. Read More.

Rare ‘Excalibur’ sword from Spain dates to Islamic period 1,000 years ago
The sword is the first weapon from the Islamic period to be found in the Spanish city of Valencia. Read More.

Sun’s chaotic peak triggers record-breaking ‘global auroras’ on Mars
Mars has had frequent planet-wide auroras in recent months, including an unprecedented trio of events in February. Experts say the sudden increase is the result of the ongoing solar maximum. Read More.

See up to 50 ‘shooting stars’ per hour as the Eta Aquarid meteor shower peaks
The Eta Aquarid meteor shower will peak this weekend, bringing up to 50 “shooting stars” per hour to the sky Saturday night and early Sunday (May 4 – 5). Read More.

Princess Charlotte turns 9
The Prince and Princess of Wales released this sweet photo of their daughter to mark the occasion.

Scientists reveal the face of a Neanderthal who lived 75,000 years ago
A Neanderthal was buried 75,000 years ago, and experts painstakingly pieced together what she looked like. See the images here.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Frankfurt, Germany
The sun rises behind a small television tower on the outskirts of the city
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Florida, US
‘Inside the St Augustine Lighthouse. I really liked the black rails against the stark white walls and the spaciousness inside, which made the curved stairwell look very graceful.’
Photograph: Joy Scovell

​​​​​​​Whitby, UK
‘Getting my daily exercise walking around the abbey, which just happens to be by the brewery.’
Photograph: Howard Green
Market Closes for May 2^nd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38225.66	+322.37
		+0.85%
S&P 500	5064.20	+45.81
		+0.91%
NASDAQ	15840.96	+235.48
		+1.51%
TSX	21823.22	+94.68
		+0.44%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	21823.22	+94.67
		+0.44%
HANG SENG	18207.13	+444.10
		+2.50%
SENSEX	74611.11	+128.33
		+0.17%
FTSE 100*	8172.15	+50.91
		+0.63%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.737	3.759
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.628	3.631
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5811	4.6283
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7284	4.7493

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7315	0.7283
US $	1.3670	1.3731

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4667	0.6818
US $	1.0729	0.9320

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2302.35	2302.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.95	79.00

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1963: Edward C. Johnson II, the head of Fidelity Investments, started a small mutual fund and gave it to his son, Ned, to run. He called it the Magellan Fund, and its success helped popularize mutual funds.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 94.68 to 21,823.22 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.6% on April 23.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.3%.
Thomson Reuters Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.9%.
Today, 136 of 223 shares rose, while 83 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.7%
* The index advanced 6.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.5% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 16.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and fell 1.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.45t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.77% compared with 8.68% in the previous session and the average of 7.96% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | 41.2788| 1.4| 20/6
Energy | 31.8678| 0.8| 35/5
Financials | 11.6082| 0.2| 14/13
Utilities | 9.4672| 1.2| 13/2
Information Technology | 7.7831| 0.4| 5/5
Real Estate | 4.0418| 0.9| 13/7
Consumer Discretionary | 1.7417| 0.2| 10/3
Consumer Staples | 1.5257| 0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -1.6816| -2.5| 3/1
Communication Services | -2.3319| -0.3| 3/2
Materials | -10.6264| -0.4| 14/34
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 17.4300| 1.3| -19.1| 1.3
Thomson Reuters | 14.9700| 6.9| 173.8| 15.0
Shopify | 13.8600| 1.7| -5.9| -4.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.7310| -0.6| -59.9| 17.9
Constellation Software | -9.9530| -2.0| 34.8| 7.9
TD Bank | -16.4000| -1.6| -44.1| -7.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest technology companies drove stocks higher ahead of Apple Inc.’s earnings, with traders also gearing up for Friday’s jobs report.
Bonds climbed, while the dollar dropped the most in 2024.
Equities halted a two-day drop, with Nvidia Corp. leading a rally in chipmakers and Apple up 2.3%.
Wall Street expects the iPhone maker to announce a buyback, following the steps of fellow big techs Alphabet Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc.
Any news related to artificial-intelligence features could provide additional excitement for a stock that has tumbled 10% this year.
In the run-up to the monthly employment report, data showed US labor costs jumped the most in a year as productivity gains slowed, adding to risks inflation will remain elevated.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a 240,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, which would be the slowest pace since November.
The Fed decided Wednesday to leave the target range for the benchmark rate at 5.25% to 5.5% following a slew of data that pointed to lingering price pressures.
Yet Chair Jerome Powell said it’s unlikely that the Fed’s next move would be to raise rates.
“While the Fed appears to have all but ruled out a rate hike, it also made clear it’s willing to keep rates higher for longer,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“The markets will be hungry for any data suggesting the economy isn’t heating up any more than it did in the first quarter.”
The S&P 500 topped 5,060, while the Nasdaq 100 added 1.3%.
Qualcomm Inc., the world’s biggest seller of smartphone processors, surged on an upbeat forecast.
eBay Inc. slumped on a disappointing outlook.
Treasury 10-year yields fell five basis points to 4.57%.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that30% of the investors polled think Friday’s jobs report will be “risk-on,” 27% expect a “risk-off” reaction, and 43% said “mixed/negligible.”
Among the labor indicators, the tally showed investors will be paying the most attention — by far — to average hourly earnings.
“Markets will likely still react more to a weaker print than strong data as investors have turned more hawkish,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities. “However, the recent string of upside surprises to economic data is unlikely to be sustained for long as expectations continue to reset higher.”
The options market is betting that stocks will swing widely after Friday’s US jobs report, which traders expect will offer more clarity on how much the Fed may cut interest rates this year.
The S&P 500 is expected to move 1.2% in either direction after the release, based on the cost of at-the-money puts and calls expiring Friday, according to Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup Inc.’s head of US equity trading strategy.
That figure, based on the prices of S&P straddles as of Wednesday’s close, is the largest implied swing ahead of an employment report since March 2023, he said.
After Wednesday’s Fed decision to hold rates, the length of the current pause reached 280 days — which remains the second-longest on record, according to Ryan Grabinski at Strategas Securities.
“Longer pauses have been constructive for equities,” Grabinski said. “The longest pause from June 2006 to September 2007 was associated with the best equity-market return. We are reaching the point where a Fed cut is probably more likely to mean issues are perking up.”
Meantime, Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian says a sturdy economy will sustain the bull-market run in US stocks even without Fed rate cuts.
“I think we’re going to a soft landing, with a reasonable market environment, maybe better growth ahead than what we’re used to, higher rates and a little bit higher inflation,” Subramanian said Thursday on Bloomberg Television.
Hedge funds are turning increasingly defensive as uncertainty around geopolitics and the path of interest rates, as well as the stock market’s April swoon, has investing pros spooked.
Positioning data shows that hedge fund added defensive equity positions to their portfolio in April at the fastest pace in eight months, while still being net sellers of global stocks, according to figures compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk.
That snaps a four-month streak of buying.
Health care saw the biggest inflows, while consumer discretionary stocks had the largest net selling in seven months, according Goldman’s data.

Corporate Highlights:
* Peloton Interactive Inc. said Chief Executive Officer Barry McCarthy is stepping down as the company undergoes a major restructuring that will reduce its global workforce by 15% in an effort to slash costs.
* MGM Resorts International reported first-quarter sales and earnings that beat analysts’ projections, benefiting from the post-pandemic recovery in Macau and a new partnership with Marriott International Inc. that helped fill hotel rooms.
* Carvana Co. reported stronger earnings with revenue topping expectations as the company digs into its restructuring plan and regains sales momentum.
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, offered a disappointing profit forecast for the current quarter as the company invests in expanding its list of non-restaurant partners and improving efficiency.
* Moderna Inc. reported a narrower first-quarter loss than Wall Street had expected, as the biotech giant’s cost-cutting helped offset a steep decline in its Covid business.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. reported higher first-quarter profit as the firm raked in more management fees and originated a record $40 billion of private credit, a key area of growth.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0727
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2537
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 153.20 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.6% to $59,352.38
* Ether rose 2.1% to $2,999.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.57%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.29%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,303.82 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Ryan Vlastelica and Jessica Menton.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
As a well-spent day brings happy sleep, so a life well used brings a happy death. -Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: May Day.

May 1, 1961: Fidel Castro declares Cuba a socialist nation and bans elections.
On May 1, 2011, President Barack Obama announced that Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of the September 11 attacks, was killed by United States forces in Pakistan. Go to article >>

Judy Collins, singer, songwriter & musician, b. 1934.

2 plants randomly mated up to 1 million years ago to give rise to one of the world’s most popular drinks
Arabica coffee plant appears to have evolved between 600,000 and 1 million years ago after two other coffee species crossbred in the forests of what is now Ethiopia. Read More.

Villa near Mount Vesuvius may be where Augustus, Rome’s 1st emperor, died
Researchers say a villa buried by the eruption in A.D. 79 corresponds with records of the Roman emperor’s death in A.D. 14. Read More.

James Webb telescope reveals fiery ‘mane’ of the Horsehead Nebula in spectacular new images
Captured in infrared light by the James Webb Space Telescope, the star-forming Horsehead Nebula is located 1,300 light-years away in the Orion Constellation. Read More.

Dusty ‘Cat’s Paw Nebula’ contains a type of molecule never seen in space — and it’s one of the largest ever found
Scientists have detected a new, unusually large molecule never seen in space before. The 13-atom molecule, called 2-methoxyethanol, was detected in the Cat’s Paw Nebula. Read More.

6G speeds hit 100 Gbps in new test — 500 times faster than average 5G cellphones
Scientists in Japan have transferred data at 100 gigabits per second in high-frequency wavelength bands over a distance of 330 feet for the first time. Read More.

Tony Awards 2024: See the list of nominees
The Tony Awards, which honor the best on Broadway, will be presented on June 16. See the full list of nominees here.

This airport says it hasn’t lost a single piece of baggage in 30 years
There’s always a chance your luggage will be lost in transit … except at this airport, which has a spotless baggage record since opening in 1994.

Paleo diet? Study reveals insight into what Stone Age humans really ate
A long-held stereotype is that ancient humans were big on meat. A new study suggests more plant-based foods were on the menu.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wichita, US
A formation of mammatus clouds fills the sky over north-east Kansas after severe storms and a few tornadoes crossed the state
Photograph: Travis Heying/the Wichita Eagle/AP

Sydney, Australia
Performers at the Overseas Passenger Terminal put on a show to promote the film Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Photograph: Brendon Thorne/Getty

Srinagar, India
A boatman steers people along a canal within Dal Lake after water levels rose due to heavy rains
Photograph: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP/Getty
Market Closes for May 1^st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	37903.29	+87.37
		+0.23%
S&P 500	5018.39	-17.30
		-0.34%
NASDAQ	15605.48	-52.34
		-0.33%
TSX	21728.55	+14.01
		+0.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38274.05	-131.61
		-0.34%
HANG SENG	Market Close	N.A
SENSEX	Market Close	N.A
FTSE 100*	8121.24	-22.89
		-0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.759	3.816
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.631	3.674
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6283	4.6798
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7493	4.7839

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7283	0.7258
US $	1.3731	1.3778

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4715	0.6796
US $	1.0716	0.9332

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2302.35	2333.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.00	81.93

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1956, seven local investors contributed $105,000 to an investment partnership that a 25-year-old was about to start running from his bedroom in a rented house on Underwood Avenue in Omaha. The name of the “kid” running the fund: Warren Buffett.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 21,728.55 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.3%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Brookfield Renewable Partners LP had the largest increase, rising 11.5%.
Today, 124 of 224 shares rose, while 98 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 5.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.9% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 16.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.7% in the past 5 days and fell 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 14.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.45t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.68% compared with 9.08% in the previous session and the average of 7.89% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 36.0116| 0.5| 24/3
Utilities | 11.6792| 1.5| 13/2
Information Technology | 11.2338| 0.6| 8/2
Materials | 6.1054| 0.2| 40/10
Communication Services | 5.2949| 0.8| 2/3
Real Estate | 0.4900| 0.1| 10/9
Consumer Staples | -1.0456| -0.1| 3/8
Health Care | -3.4302| -4.9| 1/3
Industrials | -6.8131| -0.2| 12/15
Consumer Discretionary | -8.5932| -1.1| 3/10
Energy | -36.9345| -0.9| 8/33
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 11.5000| 2.1| 0.3| 6.1
Constellation Software | 9.9760| 2.0| -35.6| 10.1
RBC | 7.6700| 0.6| 3.2| 0.0
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.0790| -1.2| 66.7| 1.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.7500| -1.3| -52.1| 18.7
TD Bank | -11.2900| -1.1| -48.1| -5.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bonds rallied after Jerome Powell downplayed the possibility of interest-rate hikes and the Federal Reserve said it will shrink its balance sheet at a slower pace to ease strains in money markets.
Treasuries climbed across the curve, with two-year yields dropping below 5%.
Swap traders boosted bets on policy easing in 2024.
At one point, markets were headed for their biggest cross-asset surge on a Fed day this year.
Moves abated toward the close, with the S&P 500 turning lower as chipmakers plunged in the final hour of trading.
The yen soared, fueling speculation Japan could be intervening to support the currency.
Officials unanimously decided Wednesday to leave the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5% — where it’s been since July.
Powell noted it’s unlikely the Fed’s next move would be to raise rates, saying officials would need to see persuasive evidence that policy is not tight enough to bring inflation back toward the central bank’s 2% target.
“Jay Powell threaded the needle perfectly today,” said Ronald Temple at Lazard.
“He did not take the bait to talk about hiking rates. I believe the FOMC’s cautious approach will be a winner over time as inflation subsides as we progress through the year.”
US 10-year yields fell five basis points to 4.63%.
In a volatile session, the S&P 500 extended this week’s losses — with traders seeing Friday’s jobs report as the next big catalyst.
After the close of regular trading, Qualcomm Inc., the biggest seller of smartphone processors, gave a bullish forecast.
“The basic message was that cuts have been delayed — not derailed,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore. “Relative to expectations, this is a very measured hawkish reset.”
While the Fed signaled it’s not planning to cut rates so soon, the fact that officials are slowing the pace at which they shrink their balance sheet, it will mean less upward pressure on bond yields, according to Sonu Varghese at Carson Group.
In the plan unveiled Wednesday, the Fed said it will lower the monthly cap on how much Treasuries it will allow to mature without being reinvested, to $25 billion from $60 billion, while keeping the cap for mortgage-backed securities unchanged at $35 billion.
The central bank has been winding down its holdings since June 2022 — a process known as quantitative tightening.
It gradually increased the combined amount of Treasury and mortgage bonds it allowed to run off without being reinvested to a total of $95 billion per month.
To Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, QT tapering combined with the Treasury Department’s $10 billion per month in buybacks represent a constructive shift in the flow dynamics for the US rates market.
“The less Treasury debt that rolls off the Fed’s balance sheet, the less debt that has to be absorbed by the market,” said Greg McBride at Bankrate.
“This could help keep long-term Treasury yields in check after heady increases thus far in 2024.”

Wall Street’s Reaction to Fed:
* Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research:  The statement retains its easing bias. In the press conference, Powell believes that policy is restrictive. If policy is restrictive, they are more concerned about downside growth risks than upside inflation risks.
* Bret Kenwell at eToro:  The Fed might not be confident enough to cut rates yet, but notably, the idea of rate hikes doesn’t appear to be on the table.  The Fed’s plan to slow its balance sheet runoff should be a positive for the bond market, and it’s something the committee likely wouldn’t do if it felt that it would need to raise rates in the not-too-distant future.
* Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management:  After a spate of strong inflation numbers, the Fed cannot pretend that recent inflation surprises are simple blips in the data run. Yet Powell retains some confidence that inflation will
decline from here, albeit lessened over recent months, suggesting that it’s a fairly high bar for rate hikes.  Yet, before markets get overly excited, it’s worth remembering that the Fed is responding to the unfolding economic data, just as we all are. The next few months of data are pivotal for the Fed path.
* Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial:  The FOMC statement offered the market liquidity, with a larger than expected QT slowdown in exchange for more time needed to assess the path of disinflation and timing for initiating rate cuts.
The statement wasn’t as hawkish as market participants anticipated as there wasn’t a hint of a potential rate hike, just a suggestion of remaining higher for perhaps longer than an eager market is comfortable with.
* Whitney Watson at Goldman Sachs Asset Management:  US growth and inflation exceptionalism in the first quarter suggest the Fed will exercise patience before pivoting to rate cuts, spending the second quarter regaining confidence on disinflation.  We expect the downtrend in inflation has been delayed, not derailed. As for the Fed’s balance-sheet reduction, today’s decision to taper quantitative tightening is a nod to liquidity considerations in the financial system, rather than a shift in direction.
* Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers:  Pulling back on QT is the noteworthy aspect, particularly because cutback is strictly on the Treasuries side while agencies and mortgages remain unchanged. A bit of dovishness to balance the acknowledgement of lack of progress on inflation.
Wall Street lore says traders should dump stocks in May to avoid the summer doldrums.
But that strategy appears to have been a bust in recent memory.
The old Wall Street adage “sell in May and go away” refers to a six-month stretch from May to October that historically has been the worst time to own stocks — but that hasn’t been the case lately.
In fact, the S&P 500 has delivered gains in eight of the past 10 years during this time frame, with an average return of 4%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
That said, this span still hasn’t beaten the best six months of the year on average for US equities in the past 70 years: November to April.
Last month’s slide in the S&P 500 drove sell-side strategists out of equities and bonds and into cash, bringing a contrarian sentiment barometer from Bank of America Corp. closer to signaling it’s time to buy US stocks.
BofA’s so-called Sell-Side Indicator ticked down 33 basis points in April to 54.6%, bringing it just below its 15-year average, strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

Corporate Highlights:
* eBay Inc. declined after giving a weak forecast for the current quarter, reinforcing investor worries that the one-time pioneer continues to lose relevance in a maturing e-commerce market crowded with competitors.
* American International Group Inc. reported profit above analysts’ estimates in the first quarter as lower-than-expected catastrophe losses contributed to strong underwriting results.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Witty told lawmakers his company is still trying to determine why its computer systems were left vulnerable to hackers who perpetrated a devastating cyberattack.
* Allstate Corp. reported earnings that beat estimates as the property and casualty insurer benefitted from lower catastrophe losses.
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, offered a disappointing profit forecast for the current quarter as the company invests in expanding its list of non-restaurant partners and improving efficiency.
* Carvana Co. reported stronger earnings with revenue topping expectations as the company digs into its restructuring plan and regains sales momentum.
* Zillow Group Inc. shares fell after the real estate company published a second-quarter outlook that called for lower revenue in its core business and predicted stalling growth in the broader US housing market.
* Mastercard Inc. cut a forecast for full-year revenue growth citing foreign exchange headwinds, as first-quarter spending on the payments giant’s network fell short of estimates.
* New York Community Bancorp Inc. posted results that were better than feared and executives outlined a plan for reshaping it into a more diversified and profitable bank.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0689
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2491
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 157.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.7% to $57,030.77
* Ether fell 1.3% to $2,924.73
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.63%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.37%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.4% to $79.11 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,308.04 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Natalia Kniazhevich and Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. – Joseph Joubert, 1754-1824.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Beltane, Wicca.

Walpurgisnacht, Witch’s Night, Europe.  Beltane – the ancient Celtic union of goddess and god, water and light.  All fires are extinguished at sunset on Beltane Eve, the midpoint between the spring equinox and the summer solstice.  It is a celebration of all that is powerful and sensual n nature. Atop the Maypole, a womb-like inverted basket in hung with ribbons.  Dancers of each sex grasp the ribbons, facing one another,  The dancers weave, the ribbons intertwine…

We were there last night when the dark drew down: we set the bonfires leaping.
Then we vanished in the hear and we couldn’t be found until the dawn came creeping. –Celtic rock group Annwn

April 30, 1975: The fall of Saigon marks the end of the Vietnam War.

Deepest blue hole in the world discovered, with hidden caves and tunnels believed to be inside
Scientists have yet to reach the bottom of the Taam Ja’ Blue Hole in Mexico’s Chetumal Bay, which new measurements hint could be connected to a labyrinth of submarine caves and tunnels. Read More.

Earth from space: Lava bleeds down iguana-infested volcano as it spits out toxic gas
A satellite image of the Galápagos Islands’ La Cumbre volcano shows lava seeping from the iguana-covered mountain days into an ongoing, months-long eruption. Read More.

Why do people hear their names being called in the woods?
Auditory pareidolia is a phenomenon in which people can hear familiar sounds from seemingly static background noise. Read More.

Black hole ‘traffic jams’ are forcing cosmic monsters to collide, new study finds
Supermassive black holes may create conditions akin to “cosmic intersections with failed traffic lights” that make collisions between smaller stellar-mass black holes inevitable. Read More.

Quantum computing breakthrough could happen with just hundreds, not millions, of qubits using new error-correction system
Scientists have designed a physical qubit that behaves as an error-correcting “logical qubit,” and now they think they can scale it up to make a useful quantum computer using a few hundred. Read More.

Amateur archaeologists unearth mysterious Roman object
This 12-sided object is considered “one of archaeology’s great enigmas” and experts are still unsure what the Romans used it for.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Employees of the Louvre return the painting Liberty Leading the People (1830) by Eugène Delacroix to its original spot after its restoration. The picture goes back on display on 2 May after six months of restoration work
Photograph: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images

Nochten, Germany
The Boxberg coal-fired power plant stands behind the newly inaugurated PV-Park Boxberg solar energy park.
Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Vienna, Austria
Images are projected on to a wall during a conference titled Humanity at the Crossroads, the former imperial palace
Photograph: Joe Klamar/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 30^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	37815.92	-570.17
		-1.49%
S&P 500	5035.69	-80.48
		-1.57%
NASDAQ	15657.82	-325.26
		-2.04%
TSX	21714.54	-297.08
		-1.35%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38405.66	+470.90
		+1.24%
HANG SENG	17763.03	+16.12
		+0.09%
SENSEX	74482.78	-188.50
		-0.25%
FTSE 100*	8144.13	-2.90
		-0.04%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.816	3.750
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.674	3.627
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6798	4.6136
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7839	4.7315

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7258	0.7321
US $	1.3778	1.3659

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4699	0.6803
US $	1.0668	0.9374

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2333.55	2333.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.93	83.85

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in in 1999, shares in Priceline hit $162, a 914% rise from the travel website’s IPO a month earlier, fueled by froth from the dotcom frenzy.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.3% at 21,714.54 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.3% on Feb. 13 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 185 of 224 shares fell, while 36 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 9.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss seven times. The next day, it declined four times for an average 0.3% and advanced three times for an average 0.6%
* This month, the index fell 2%
* The index advanced 5.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 16.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.4% in the past 5 days and fell 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.08% compared with 8.08% in the previous session and the average of 7.85% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -99.4661| -2.4| 1/40
Materials | -81.8349| -3.1| 2/47
Industrials | -44.5069| -1.5| 7/20
Financials | -32.2780| -0.5| 4/22
Information Technology | -31.3342| -1.7| 1/9
Consumer Staples | -11.2038| -1.2| 1/10
Real Estate | -2.0547| -0.4| 7/13
Consumer Discretionary | -0.6768| -0.1| 2/11
Utilities | -0.6669| -0.1| 8/7
Communication Services | 2.0019| 0.3| 2/3
Health Care | 4.9225| 7.5| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -20.0900| -2.4| 53.5| -6.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -18.8200| -2.4| -61.7| 20.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -16.2900| -2.3| 79.0| 3.0
Tilray Brands | 5.2430| 41.9| 229.2| 11.8
TD Bank | 7.6910| 0.8| -23.2| -4.6
Restaurant Brands | 7.7970| 3.5| 44.0| 0.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market sank in the final stretch of April and bond yields climbed on concern that stubborn inflation will force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
On the eve of the Fed decision, a broad gauge of US labor costs closely watched by policymakers jumped the most in a year.
The data signaled wage pressures, reinforcing bets that officials will keep rates unchanged at a two-decade high Wednesday — and are unlikely to lower them anytime soon.
That perception combined with a plunge in consumer confidence weighed heavily on equities — which suffered their worst month since September.
The last time Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke he pointed to the lack of further progress in bringing inflation down, and to enduring strength in the labor market.
The latest inflation signals — in tandem with expectations for a robust employment report on Friday — aren’t likely to lead him to change his tune.
“The markets are in full fear-mode going into tomorrow’s Fed announcement,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “Rates won’t go down in the near future and equities are having trouble justifying their price.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the most since January.
In late hours, Amazon.com Inc. climbed as earnings beat estimates.
Starbucks Corp. posted its first sales decline in more than three years.
Treasury two-year yields topped 5% — the highest level since November.
The dollar notched its fourth consecutive monthly advance — the longest winning run since September 2022.
“Stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all frontrunning the possibility of a frowning Powell at tomorrow’s interest rate decision,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “This morning’s data justifies an increasingly hawkish committee.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that only 16% of investors polled expect a “risk-on” reaction to Wednesday’s Fed decision, 44% said “risk-off,” and 40% “negligible/mixed.”
The tally also revealed that two thirds of respondents still expect a rate cut in 2024.
US consumer confidence fell in April to the lowest since mid-2022 as Americans’ views of the labor market and their outlook for the economy deteriorated.
A broad gauge of labor costs closely watched by the Fed increased the most in a year, illustrating persistent wage pressures that are keeping inflation elevated.
“With inflation data continuing to be surprisingly hot for the past quarter, the narrative that these surprises are all attributable to ‘one offs’ in individual components is becoming harder to sustain,” said Joe Davis at Vanguard. “Time will tell, but the data suggest that what we call a ‘deferred landing’ is more likely than the long anticipated ‘soft landing’.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the disappointment on wages will make the Fed less confident in the outlook for inflation.
“This will manifest itself in a harder tone,” he said “with policymakers clearly open to a more extended hold beyond the initial delay for the first cut from June to July/ September — if there is not a clear stepdown in inflation in the coming months.”
Sticky US inflation this year isn’t necessarily bad news for the stock rally as higher yields are a reflection of strong economic growth, according to HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner.
“If the Fed’s cuts turn out to be more like the recalibration in the mid-1990s and 2019, it may not necessarily be bad news for risk assets,” they wrote.
Bank of America Corp. clients posted their largest inflows to US equities in eight weeks during the five-day period ended Friday.
All major client groups — institutions, hedge funds, and retail investors — were net buyers last week, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said in a note to clients Tuesday.
Net inflow totaled $3 billion, largest in two months, per B of A.
The recent rebound in equity markets was not driven by a change in investor flows, but rather by the unwind of profitable bearish positions, Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote.
They also noted that the bounce couldn’t continue on de-risking flows alone — and should be supported by new bullish inflows.
Despite its reputation, May has historically been a positive month for the equity market, although gains have been backend-loaded towards the last week of the month, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
May tends to be a positive month with an average gain of 0.93% dating back to 1983 and 0.68% over the last 10 years, the firm said.
“The six months from May through October haven’t necessarily been a negative period for equities, but historically, it is the weakest six-month stretch on the calendar,” Bespoke noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* McDonald’s Corp. results fell short of expectations in the first quarter, hampered by slowing growth in the US and the reverberations of the Israel-Hamas war.
* Coca-Cola Co. issued a more optimistic 2024 forecast after first-quarter results outpaced Wall Street’s expectations as customers in markets around the world continue to pay higher prices and drive volume growth.
* 3M Co. plans to slash its dividend, ending more than six decades of boosting the payout each year as it enters a new era following the spinoff of its health-care products division.
* Eli Lilly & Co.’s brighter outlook for 2024 raised the potential ceiling for new weight-loss drugs even further in the eyes of analysts and investors.
* PayPal Holdings Inc.’s payment volume climbed 14% in the first quarter on increased consumer spending globally, giving a boost to the firm’s shares in early trading.
* Meta Platforms Inc.’s social media platforms Facebook and Instagram are under investigation from the European Union amid concerns they’re failing to cull targeted disinformation peddled by Russia that aims to sow discord on the continent.
* Walmart Inc.’s deal to buy smart-TV maker Vizio Holding Corp. will undergo an in-depth antitrust review by the Federal Trade Commission, Vizio said Tuesday.
* Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. warned of pressured margins for the remainder of the year, even as quarterly earnings beat estimates.
* Paramount Global replaced Chief Executive Officer Bob Bakish, appointing a management committee as the board negotiates a possible change in control of the company.
* MicroStrategy Inc. posted a first-quarter loss after taking an impairment charge against the value of its roughly $13 billion in Bitcoin holdings even though the cryptocurrency surged during the period.

Key events this week:
* Holiday across much of Europe, Wednesday
* Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, Wednesday
* US ADP employment change, JOLTS job openings, ISM Manufacturing, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0672
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2495
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 157.72 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.5% to $59,476.83
* Ether fell 7.4% to $2,941.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.68%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.35%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $81.60 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.8% to $2,292.50 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani and Alexandra Semenova.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The soul is dyed the color of its thoughts.  Think only on those things that are in line with your principals
and can bear the light of day.  The content of your character is your choice.
Day by day, what you do is who you become. –Heraclitus, c. 6th century BC- c. 5^th century BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
On April 29, 1992, deadly rioting that claimed 54 lives and caused $1 billion in damage erupted in Los Angeles after a jury in Simi Valley acquitted four Los Angeles police officers of almost all state charges in the videotaped
brutal beating of Rodney King.  Go to article >>
Duke Ellington, b. 1899.
Emperor Hirohito, b.1901.
Uma Thurman, b. 1971.

Lasers reveal prehistoric Irish monuments that may have been ‘pathways for the dead’
Archaeologists used lidar to detect a cluster of rare Neolithic monuments hidden in farmland in Ireland. Read More.

Jupiter may be the reason why Earth has a moon, new study hints
The great planetary instability, which saw Jupiter and the other gas giants wander chaotically through the solar system, coincides with the collision that formed Earth’s moon. Could the two events be linked? Read More.

Can humans see ultraviolet light?
Ultraviolet has very short and energetic wavelengths that are shorter than violet on the visible spectrum. But can people see UV? Read More.

What we learned during the 2024 NFL Draft
The 2024 NFL Draft drew to a close on Saturday as 257 players were selected by teams from across the league. Read the highlights here.

Prince Harry will be back in Britain soon
The Duke of Sussex will return to the UK in May to celebrate a milestone anniversary of the Invictus Games, the biennial sporting competition he founded a decade ago.

These are the hot new restaurants at the mall
Applebee’s, Chili’s and other national brands used to dominate every corner of the American mall. These restaurants are now taking their place.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bad Ragaz, Switzerland
A girl stands next to a sculpture by the Swiss artist Al Meier at an international outdoor art exhibition where artworks by 88 artists are on display
Photograph: Gian Ehrenzeller/EPA

Ajmer, India
A squirrel drinks from an earthen pot on a hot summer afternoon
Photograph: Himanshu Sharma/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Moscow, Russia
Participants in the Moscow half marathon
Photograph: Yuri Kochetkov/EPA
Market Closes for April 29^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38386.09	+146.43
		+0.38%
S&P 500	5116.17	+16.21
		+0.32%
NASDAQ	15983.09	+55.19
		+0.35%
TSX	22011.62	+42.38
		+0.19%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37934.76	+306.28
		+0.81%
HANG SENG	17746.91	+95.76
		+0.54%
SENSEX	74671.28	+941.12
		+1.28%
FTSE 100*	8147.03	+7.20
		+0.09%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.750	3.816
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.627	3.695
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6136	4.6630
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7315	4.7754

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7321	0.7316
US $	1.3659	1.3669

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4646	0.6828
US $	1.0722	0.9327

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2333.55	2343.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.85	85.17

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1901, total daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 2 million for the first time, as 2,471,258 shares changed hands.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.2%, or 42.38 to 22,011.62 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.6%. NexGen Energy Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 6.1%.
Today, 142 of 224 shares rose, while 77 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 0.7%
* The index advanced 6.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 17.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and fell 0.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 14.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.49t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.08% compared with 8.07% in the previous session and the average of 7.79% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 22.4957| 0.5| 35/6
Materials | 16.9982| 0.6| 32/16
Information Technology | 7.9025| 0.4| 5/5
Utilities | 5.0883| 0.6| 12/3
Communication Services | 3.0253| 0.4| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 2.8351| 0.4| 10/3
Health Care | 0.6035| 0.9| 3/1
Consumer Staples | 0.3276| 0.0| 6/5
Financials | -0.9644| 0.0| 14/13
Real Estate | -2.8503| -0.6| 7/12
Industrials | -13.0766| -0.4| 13/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 13.1700| 1.6| -3.2| -4.0
Nutrien | 7.5360| 3.0| 123.1| -0.9
Barrick Gold | 4.0500| 1.4| -34.6| -1.0
Bank of Montreal | -4.2080| -0.7| 105.9| -5.9
Canadian National | -6.6240| -1.0| 37.3| 1.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -7.3630| -1.0| 222.7| 5.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose as a solid earnings season propped up the market despite bets the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
After pulling back for the most part in April, equities staged a rebound toward the end of the month.
Early results from the reporting season suggest that over 80% of US companies are beating expectations.
First-quarter earnings are now on track to increase by 4.7% from a year ago, compared with the pre-season estimate of 3.8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
Following strong results from its “Magnificent Seven” counterparts, Amazon.com Inc. is seen joining the pack this week with a jump in sales.
Apple Inc. likely had a tougher time, with profit expected to be lower as iPhone sales slid.
Chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. probably eked out revenue growth.
“Last week, Big Tech enthusiasm outweighed concerns about sticky inflation,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “This week, we’ll find out if Amazon and Apple can keep that momentum going, but traders will also be taking the temperature of the latest jobs data and what the Fed has to say about inflation and rate cuts.”
The S&P 500 topped 5,100. Tesla Inc. soared 15% after receiving in-principle approval from Chinese officials to deploy its driver-assistance system in the world’s biggest auto market.
Apple Inc. rallied on a bullish analyst call. Boeing Co. raised $10 billion from a bond sale that attracted about $77 billion of orders.
US 10-year yields fell five basis points to 4.62%.
The Treasury ramped up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to $243 billion, more than most dealers had anticipated.
The yen climbed on speculation Japan intervened to support its beleaguered currency for the first time since 2022.
Investors are faced with a call on whether the weakness in stocks seen earlier this month was only a blip or if delayed policy easing will pull the market back down again.
The answer may lie in the market playbook of the 1990s, when equities more than tripled in value despite years of rates that were hovering around current levels.
“One of the important things investors learned last week is that the economy is less sensitive to interest rates in this cycle,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. “The Fed is ‘backed into a corner’ as some sectors of the economy appear immune to interest rates.”
At this rate, Roach expects the Fed to stay on hold longer than would happen in a normal cycle, “which increases the odds of either stagflation or a bumpy landing.”
Markets could remain volatile this week, but UBS’s Chief Investment Office continues to see the current environment as supportive for US equities — driven by solid earnings growth, a potential Fed pivot later this year, and accelerating
artificial-intelligence investment.
“We remain constructive on US equities, and expect AI-related companies to drive strong earnings growth in the years ahead,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“It is key for investors to hold a healthy strategic allocation to tech stocks, but also advocate diversified exposure across regions and sectors.”
Meantime, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said the pressure from higher Treasury yields is taking the shine off an upbeat earnings season for Corporate America.
The strategist noted that although the share of companies beating analysts’ profit estimates was “strong,” the reaction in share prices was still muted as valuations were inflated following a record-breaking rally this year.
“While markets may enjoy the earnings results from the big tech companies, when earnings season is over, investors will be left justifying high market multiples in the face of interest rates that are likely to remain higher for longer,” said Megan Horneman at Verdence Capital Advisors.
The US stock market is likely to repeat the late summer swoon that kicked in last August, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic, who says the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates weighing on growth poses a risk to this year’s rally.
“We remain concerned about the repeat of last summer’s drawdown, where the growth-policy tradeoff could move away from the Goldilocks narrative, together with a continued risk of concentration reversal, too steep projections for earnings acceleration this year, and positioning unwind.”
Since the October 2022 bear-market trough, stock gains have been driven mostly by multiples expansion linked to hopes for imminent Fed rate cuts and lower normalized rates — but the evolving narrative has been frustrating, according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“While Fed pauses are typically supportive of stocks, long periods of ‘higher for longer’ can end poorly, with some part of the economy ultimately stressed, as with emerging markets in 1997, tech stocks in 2001 and housing/banking in 2007,” she noted. “This cycle’s candidates could be low-end consumers, small businesses dependent on credit and commercial real estate owners.”
“Equity markets have been in a sideways churn for two months as bulls and bears wrestle for control,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “Following the dramatic run since October, a pause is not unexpected or unhealthy.”
He added that it is hard to see a dramatic breakout in either direction in the near term — as both sides have a compelling argument and expectations are not overly optimistic or pessimistic.
Despite concern that the Fed will be in no rush to cut rates, the appetite for technology stocks last week wasn’t lost on hedge funds.
Tech saw the largest net buying since December 2022 by the group, driven by an increase in long positions and short-covering, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage show.
The dominance of the “Magnificent Seven” may soon give way to a broadening of earnings growth that is supportive of a variety of equity asset classes, according to Glenmede’s Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds.
In the fourth quarter, for instance, earnings growth from the group of mega-caps is forecast to lag the rest of the market, with “equity analysts appear to be anticipating more abundant opportunities for profit growth beyond the market darlings,” they said.
The likelihood that rates will remain elevated for months to come has made a long-awaited rebound in the beaten-down stocks of smaller companies seem more elusive.
Even as forecasts for policy easing are pushed out, sectors within the group poised to benefit from an economic recovery and with low refinancing risk are still well-positioned to outperform their large-cap counterparts, Bank of America Corp.’s strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said last week in a note.
Current multiples imply 9% annualized returns for the Russell 2000 over the coming 10 years, compared to just 2% per year for the Russell 1000, per BofA’s estimates.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Redstone family and independent film producer David Ellison have offered concessions to make a possible change in control at Paramount Global more appealing to the company’s other investors, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
* Domino’s Pizza Inc.’s same-store sales in the US exceeded first-quarter expectations, a promising sign for the company’s continued turnaround.
* SoFi Technologies Inc. gave guidance for second-quarter revenue and earnings that was less than analysts expected.
* WeWork Inc. and its major financial backers including SoftBank Group Corp. have struck a new restructuring deal to get the ailing workspace provider out of bankruptcy, spurning a competing financing proposal from co-founder Adam Neumann.
* The activist investor battling to replace Norfolk Southern Corp.’s leadership won the backing of Glass Lewis & Co., raising pressure on the railroad in the final days before a crucial shareholder vote.
* UMB Financial Corp. agreed to acquire rival Heartland Financial USA Inc. for about $2 billion in an all-stock transaction poised to be the year’s largest US regional-bank deal.
* Chinese automaker BYD Co.’s first-quarter revenue missed estimates as aggressive price cuts across most of its lineup ate into its financial performance.

* Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail sales, Tuesday
* China Caixin manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
* Eurozone CPI, GDP, Tuesday
* US employment cost index, Conf. Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
* Amazon, Samsung, HSBC earnings, Tuesday
* Labour Day holiday across much of Europe, Wednesday
* Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, Wednesday
* US ADP employment change, JOLTS job openings, ISM Manufacturing, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0721
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2561
* The Japanese yen rose 1.4% to 156.04 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $62,963.44
* Ether fell 3.8% to $3,184.75
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.62%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.29%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $82.71 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani and Alexandra Semenova.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It is nothing to die; it is frightful not to live. –Victor Hugo, 1802-1885.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Richter Scale Day.

April 26, 1937: Massacre, Guernica, Spain.
On April 26, 1986, the world’s worst nuclear accident occurred at the Chernobyl plant in the Soviet Union. An explosion and fire in the No. 4 reactor sent radioactivity into the atmosphere; at least 31 Soviets died immediately & causing tens of thousands of deaths across Europe in the coming decades due to cancer caused by the radioactive fallout.

John James Audubon, artist, b. 1785.
Frederick Law Olmstead, landscaper, b.1822.
Ludwig Wittgenstein, philosopher, b. 1889.
Charles Richter, scientist, b. 1900.

Blades fall off Moulin Rouge windmill in Paris
The blades atop the iconic cabaret fell off this week, but all shows will go on as planned, a spokesperson for the venue said.

Venice begins charging entry fee for day-trippers
Italy’s canal city has begun charging an entry fee for people visiting for the day, a controversial measure to tackle chronic over-tourism at peak times.

Highlights from the 2024 NFL Draft
For the first time, five quarterbacks were taken in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. Follow the live list of picks and selections here.

Hundreds of black ‘spiders’ spotted in mysterious ‘Inca City’ on Mars in new satellite photos
Every spring, creepy black “spiders” sprout up on Mars as buried carbon dioxide ice releases dusty geysers of gas. New ESA images show the phenomenon has begun in the strange Inca City formation. Read More.

Plato’s burial place finally revealed after AI deciphers ancient scroll carbonized in Mount Vesuvius eruption
Researchers used AI to decipher an ancient papyrus that includes details about where the Greek philosopher is buried.  Read More.

Scientists find one of the oldest stars in the universe in a galaxy right next to ours
An ancient star discovered in the Large Magellanic Cloud has revealed the chemical fingerprint of the early universe. It hints that conditions were not the same everywhere when the first stars forged the elements for life. Read More.

China green-lights mass production of autonomous flying taxis — with commercial flights set for 2025
The EHang EH216-S autonomous flying taxi is the first eVTOL ready for mass production and could lead the way for flying cars around the world. Read More.

World’s thinnest gold leaf, dubbed ‘goldene,’ is just 1 atom thick
Goldene is the latest 2D material to be made since graphene was first created in 2004. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Marrakech, Morocco
A crescent moon over Jemaa el-Fnaa, the city’s main square
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Hawaiian surfer Gabriela Bryan shared a wave with a pod of dolphins as she won her first World Surf League tour event at the Margaret River Pro in western Australia. “That wave was sent to me by someone, the dolphins in it. It was magical,” she said
Photograph: World Surf League

​​​​​​​A giraffe walks through a rainbow at the Zimanga Private Game Reserve in Kwa Zulu Natal, South Africa
Photograph: Calvin Kotze/Animal News Agency
Market Closes for April 26^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38239.66	+153.86
		+0.40%
S&P 500	5099.96	+51.54
		+1.02%
NASDAQ	15927.90	+316.14
		+2.03%
TSX	21969.24	+83.86
		+0.38%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37934.76	+306.28
		+0.81%
HANG SENG	17651.15	+366.61
		+2.12%
SENSEX	73730.16	-609.28
		-0.82%
FTSE 100*	8139.83	+60.97
		+0.75%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.816	3.868
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.695	3.743
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6630	4.7039
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7754	4.8123

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7316	0.7322
US $	1.3669	1.3657

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4618	0.6841
US $	1.0695	0.9350

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2343.10	2320.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.17	85.17

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1973, the Chicago Board Options Exchange opened, becoming the first marketplace for trading listed options—on 16 stocks.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 83.86 to 21,969.24 in Toronto.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 12.5%.
Today, 156 of 224 shares rose, while 63 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 0.9%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 7.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period * The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.8% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 17.5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 14.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.47t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.07% compared with 8.00% in the previous session and the average of 7.81% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 44.1729| 1.7| 45/5
Financials | 28.2266| 0.4| 19/8
Information Technology | 7.5806| 0.4| 5/5
Consumer Staples | 2.6420| 0.3| 7/3
Energy | 2.0466| 0.0| 27/13
Consumer Discretionary | 1.9774| 0.3| 10/3
Real Estate | 0.7527| 0.2| 13/5
Industrials | 0.7405| 0.0| 20/7
Health Care | 0.4540| 0.7| 4/0
Utilities | -1.7519| -0.2| 6/9
Communication Services | -2.9871| -0.4| 0/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
First Quantum Minerals | 10.0500| 12.5| 59.2| 68.4
Brookfield Corp | 9.9970| 1.8| -16.1| 5.3
Shopify | 9.6260| 1.2| -39.5| -5.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -3.3230| -0.5| -12.4| 6.5
Waste Connections | -3.7820| -0.9| 11.1| 13.0
Enbridge | -8.3210| -1.1| 20.2| 2.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest technology companies lifted stocks, with Wall Street also breathing a sigh of relief after the latest inflation data came roughly in line with estimates.
Equities notched their best week in 2024 after Microsoft Corp. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. sent a clear message to investors: Our spending on artificial intelligence and cloud computing is paying off.
That came as a positive signal for many traders wondering whether the main engine of the bull market would be able to live up to the high bar set for the industry.
The latest results from large technology companies have reinforced the group’s strong fundamentals, helping offset worries about the macroeconomic backdrop, according to Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“With tech fundamentals staying robust, in particular from big tech in the first quarter, we continue to highlight the recent correction has provided interesting entry points for tech and AI-related stocks,” Marcelli said.
The S&P 500 closed around 5,100, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed almost 2%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.67%.
The dollar rose.
To Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth, Friday’s inflation report keeps rate cuts on the table for 2024, but more likely towards the end of the year.
“We believe the stock market can power through these elevated interest rates, as earnings are still fairly strong and companies are figuring out how to still thrive in this high interest rate environment,” he noted.
Bellin says investors should continue to be on the lookout for opportunities in the market and consider taking advantage of the recent pullback, where “many quality stocks went on sale.”
“Every new inflation print has elevated importance, and the market was in need of an ‘in-line’ print to confirm that the Fed wasn’t starting to lose this battle,” said John Kerschner at Janus Henderson Investors. “Although inflation is still too high for the Fed’s comfort, if progress does continue, it still may be reasonable to assume one, maybe two, cuts in 2024.”
The US equity market will continue to rely on a handful of mega-caps stocks for direction until an uptick in real interest rates ignites recession fears, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Michael Hartnett.
That concentration will remain intact until real 10-year yields — rates adjusted to reflect the true cost of funds — rise to around 3%, “or higher yields combine with higher credit spreads to threaten recession,” they wrote.
Elevated bond yields adjusted for inflation, seen as a proxy for tight financial conditions, are a common way for stock-market bubbles to burst.

Corporate Highlights:
* Intel Corp., the biggest maker of personal computer processors, gave a lackluster forecast for the current period, indicating that it’s still struggling to return to the top tier of the chip industry.
* Snap Inc. offered positive signs that its efforts to revamp its digital advertising business are gaining popularity with marketers — boosting revenue and providing stronger competition with powerhouses Google and Meta Platforms Inc.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. declined after disappointing first-quarter performances.
* AbbVie Inc. lifted its full-year profit guidance as newer anti-inflammatory treatments like Rinvoq and Skyrizi take over for Humira, the blockbuster arthritis drug that fueled the company’s growth for more than 15 years.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0700
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2498
* The Japanese yen fell 1.4% to 157.90 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $63,767.27
* Ether fell 1.2% to $3,135.52
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.67%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.32%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,339.99 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Michael Msika.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Sing away sorrow, cast away care. –Miguel de Cervantes, 1547-1616.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Anzac Day, Australia, New Zealand.  Holocaust Day, Israel.
April 25, 1901: First licence plates issued.
1915: Battle of Gallipoli.
April 25, 1959: The St. Lawrence Seaway opened to shipping.  Go to article >>
April 25, 1974: The Carnation Revolution – in Portugal, the fascist Estado Novo is overthrown in a bloodless coup.

Oliver Cromwell, revolutionary, b. 1599
Ella Fitzgerald, b. 1917.

An honest review of the Apple Vision Pro
With an initial $3,500 price tag, the Apple Vision Pro will likely take some time before usage reaches any kind of critical mass. Industry experts say sports and other live events may intrigue more consumers.

Streaming and texting on the moon?
NASA is partnering with a major cellular company to install a simple 4G network on the moon later this year. It could lay the groundwork for an off-world internet similar to Earth’s.

2024 NFL Draft begins today
The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft begins at 8 p.m. ET. Take a look at the venue in Detroit where many top athletes and fans are set to gather in the coming hours.

Reggie Bush is getting 2005 Heisman Trophy back
Football star Reggie Bush is getting his 2005 Heisman Memorial Trophy back after having had to relinquish the award in 2010.

DNA analysis spanning 9 generations of people reveals marriage practices of mysterious warrior culture
Researchers reconstructed the relationships among nearly 300 Avars, people from a 1,500-year-old mysterious warrior culture in the Carpathian Basin. Read More.

Enormous explosion in ‘Cigar Galaxy’ reveals rare type of star never seen beyond the Milky Way
An incredibly brief, ultrabright explosion has led astronomers to a newfound magnetic star outside the Milky Way, which could be the first of many extragalactic magnetars, according to new research. Read More.

‘We have combined two marvels of modern medicine’: Woman gets pig kidney and heart pump in groundbreaking procedures
In a medical first, doctors transplanted a gene-edited pig kidney into a human patient after giving her a new heart pump. Read More.

Giant prehistoric salmon had tusk-like teeth, just like a warthog’s
The largest salmon species ever discovered, Oncorhynchus rastrosus may have used its distinctive, tusk-like teeth to compete with rivals, defend against predators and dig nests. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THEE DAY

New York, US
The full pink moon rises above 42nd Street in New York City, as seen from Weehawken, New Jersey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Toby’s Inlet, Australia
A mass stranding of whales in Western Australia
Photograph: AAP/Parks and Wildlife, Western Australia

​​​​​​​Rayong, Thailand
Aerial picture shows a breakwater installed to prevent coastal erosion along the Saeng Chan beach in Thailand’s Rayong province. Breakwaters are offshore concrete walls installed to reduce the erosive and damaging effects of strong waves out at sea
Photograph: Amaury Paul/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 25^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38085.80	-375.12
		-0.98%
S&P 500	5048.42	-23.21
		-0.46%
NASDAQ	15611.76	-100.99
		-0.64%
TSX	21885.38	+11.66
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37628.48	-831.60
		-2.16%
HANG SENG	17284.54	+83.27
		+0.48%
SENSEX	74339.44	+486.50
		+0.66%
FTSE 100*	8078.86	+38.48
		+0.48%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.868	3.795
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.743	3.695
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.7039	4.6417
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8123	4.7712

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7322	0.7297
US $	1.3657	1.3705

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4655	0.6824
US $	1.0730	0.9320

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2320.25	2328.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.17	84.17

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1931, Pynchon & Co., one of Wall Street’s most prestigious brokerage firms, went bust. Pynchon had bet much of its own money on new-media issues it helped underwrite, including Fox Films, whose shares had tumbled.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 21,885.38 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Teck Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 8.7%.
Today, 109 of 224 shares rose, while 113 fell; 2 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 1.3%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.4%
* The index advanced 7.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.2% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 17.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and fell 0.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.47t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.00% compared with 8.23% in the previous session and the average of 7.97% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 57.1321| 2.2| 42/7
Energy | 28.0607| 0.7| 31/10
Consumer Staples | -0.2631| 0.0| 5/6
Health Care | -0.4958| -0.8| 1/2
Industrials | -0.7673| 0.0| 8/19
Communication Services | -3.5956| -0.5| 1/4
Consumer Discretionary | -3.6016| -0.5| 2/11
Real Estate | -3.8192| -0.8| 5/16
Utilities | -4.7365| -0.6| 5/10
Financials | -19.8747| -0.3| 9/18
Information Technology | -36.3838| -2.0| 0/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Teck Resources | 17.3800| 8.7| 85.3| 20.8
Enbridge | 9.8070| 1.4| 20.4| 3.8
Barrick Gold | 8.5900| 3.1| -1.8| -2.5
Constellation Software | -5.7790| -1.1| -36.9| 11.3
Bank of Nova Scotia | -8.2320| -1.5| 62.8| -2.1
Shopify | -22.6300| -2.7| 10.1| -6.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street was rattled by data that showed exactly what investors did not want to hear: a sharp slowdown in the world’s largest economy and stubborn inflationary pressures.
Treasuries sold off, with yields hitting fresh 2024 highs as the economic figures revived the “stagflation” chatter — bringing more uncertainty to the path of Federal Reserve policy.
Swap traders pushed back the timing of the first rate cut to December.
Equities also struggled, but trimmed most of an earlier slide amid a surge in two heavyweights: Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc.
Their rally offset a post-earnings plunge in fellow mega-cap Meta Platforms Inc.
Intel Slips After Revenue Forecast Misses Analyst Estimates The latest economic data interrupted a run of strong demand and muted price pressures that had fueled optimism for a “soft landing.”
Gross domestic product increased at a 1.6% annualized rate, trailing all forecasts.
A closely watched measure of underlying inflation advanced at a greater-than-expected 3.7% clip.
“This report was the worst of both worlds: economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance. “The Fed wants to see inflation start coming down in a persistent manner, but the market wants to see economic growth and corporate profits increasing.”   If neither are headed in the right direction, he said, then that’s going to be “bad news” for markets.
The S&P 500 dropped to around 5,050, trimming this week’s gains.
Meantime, 10-year yields rose six basis points to 4.70%.
A $44 billion offer of seven-year notes was sold roughly in line with forecasts.
“The day the music died,” Bill Gross, the co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., posted on X. “10 year Treasury moving to 4.75%. Why own bonds?” He also said: “Stick to value stocks, avoid tech for now.”
Cantor Fitzgerald Chief Executive Officer Howard Lutnick expects the Fed to cut rates a single time this year, just ahead of the US presidential election.
“I’m thinking September, and it’s not really to move the economy — it’s to show off a little bit,” Lutnick said in an interview Thursday with Bloomberg Television.
The latest economic data must harden the tone from the Fed next week some, said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“The Fed still goes into a holding pattern circling the airport until it gets a better read on forward inflation dynamics,” he said.
It appears economic growth is “coming back down to earth” after an unusually strong second half of last year, said Mike Reynolds at Glenmede.
The combination of slower growth and sticky inflation will undoubtedly increase the whispers around potential “stagflation risk,” potentially complicating the Fed’s job, according to Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
“Stagflation chatter will surely pick up in the wake of these figures, but we’re less concerned with such an outcome as long as the labor market remains so strong,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
To Jeff Roach at LPL Financial, the economy will likely decelerate further in the following quarters as consumers are probably near the end of their spending splurge.
“We should expect inflation will ease throughout this year as aggregate demand slows, although the path to the Fed’s 2% target still looks a long ways off,” he noted.
Fed’s Goolsbee Says Central Bank Needs to ‘Recalibrate’ Policy.
In the short term, Thursday’s numbers don’t appear to be a green light for either stock bulls or bears, said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“The uncertainty is unlikely to ease pressures in a market experiencing its deepest pullback since last year,” he noted.
The most-relevant setback in the data is the acceleration of core inflation, according to David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US.
“We are not far from all rate cuts being backed out of investor expectations,” he said, adding Fed Chair Jerome Powell will possibly deliver a more hawkish tone during next week’s Fed meeting.
Traders will scrutinize Powell’s comments for clues about the latest thinking around easing policy.
He’s previously said that growth can run at a faster rate without stoking inflation.
Swap traders now see only about 35 basis points of Fed rate reductions for all of 2024, well below the more than six quarter-point reductions they expected at the start of the year.
High Commodity Costs Hurt Rate Cut Prospects, World Bank Says
“The main story remains ‘The Fed vs. The Economy’,” said Scott Helfstein at Global X.
He believes the central bank is not apt to make any major moves ahead of the election in September or November.
So, it comes down to the July and December meetings.
“There is a lot of data that will come out before December — but one cut in 2024 looks reasonable,” he concluded.
Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance says he’s looking ahead to Friday’s PCE numbers because slowing inflation is the number one issue for the Fed.
In addition, he noted that the rate cut (or even rate increase) debate has been heating up — and that’s what’s injected so much uncertainty into bond and stock markets lately.
“Our base case remains that inflation will slow in the months ahead, allowing the Fed to start trimming rates in September,” said Brian Rose at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Corporate Highlights:
* American Airlines Group Inc. expects a return to profit heading into the busy summer travel season after bad weather and delays linked to air traffic congestion weighed on the carrier’s early-year results.
* Southwest Airlines Co. is slowing growth, ending service at four airports and offering voluntary leaves to address “significant challenges” stemming in part from reduced deliveries of Boeing Co. planes.
* Airbus SE will further increase production of its advanced A350 widebody jet as the plane-maker benefits from surging demand for long-distance travel and the crisis engulfing its arch-rival Boeing Co.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. boosted its full-year profit forecast as demand for cruises continued to surge, prompting record price hikes.
* Caterpillar Inc. reported first-quarter results that showed machinery sales slipping from a year earlier and warned that the trend is expected to continue in its second quarter.
* Comcast Corp. reported a steeper-than-expected loss of internet subscribers.
* International Business Machines Corp.’s weak consulting unit sales disappointed investors, overshadowing its acquisition of software firm HashiCorp Inc.
* Ford Motor Co., rapidly retooling its electric vehicle strategy in a decelerating market for plug-ins, posted first-quarter results that beat expectations on strong sales of work trucks.
* Nasdaq Inc.’s profit fell the most in 14 years as firms continue to wait for the economy to stabilize before going public.
* Merck & Co. raised its annual profit and revenue forecast as the blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda continued to dominate the treatment landscape.
* Harley-Davidson Inc.’s first-quarter revenue beat estimates despite high borrowing costs and tighter consumer budgets.
* First Citizens BancShares Inc., which scooped up Silicon Valley Bank after the lender failed last year, lifted its guidance for lending income for 2024.
* Hertz Global Holdings Inc. reported a loss that was nearly three times worse than analysts expected as it accelerated sales of electric vehicles to reduce its fleet of Tesla Inc. models that have weighed on profits for the past year.

Key events this week:
* Japan rate decision, Tokyo CPI, inflation and GDP forecasts, Friday
* US personal income and spending, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Exxon Mobil, Chevron earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0729
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2513
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 155.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1% to $64,705.41
* Ether rose 1% to $3,161.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.70%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.63%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.36%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $83.77 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,332.94 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Procrastination is the thief of time. –Edward Young, 1681-1765.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
April 24, 1898: Spain declares war on U.S.
1800: Library of Congress established.
1962: The Massachusetts Institute of Technology achieved the first satellite relay of a television signal. Go to article >>
April 24^th, 1990: The Hubble Space Telescope is launched into Earth orbit, later delivering some of the most spectacular images of the far reaches of the Universe.

Shirley MacLaine, b. 1934.
Barbra Streisand, b. 1942.

Prince Louis photo released to mark sixth birthday
Britain’s Prince and Princess of Wales released a new photo of Prince Louis to mark his sixth birthday. It’s the first image to be released by the royal family since a photo-editing scandal erupted last month.

French recipes that will make you feel like a gourmet chef
Homemade croissants, anyone? These delicious recipes will help satisfy your cravings for French cuisine.

4 solar flares simultaneously erupt from the sun in rare ‘super’ explosion
In the early hours of Tuesday (April 23), quadruple solar flares near-simultaneously exploded from across the sun’s surface, and there’s a good chance that one of these outbursts launched a solar storm toward Earth. Read More.

Massive heat wave and a supercell thunderstorm caused deadly, baseball-sized hailstones to rain down on Spain
A giant-hail event that hit Girona in northwest Spain in 2022 was fueled by climate change, with a marine heatwave helping to intensify the storm that killed a small child. Read More.

Strange ‘minimoon’ orbiting alongside Earth may be a piece of the far side of the moon, new research hints
The near-Earth asteroid Kamo’oalewa, which orbits alongside our planet as a ‘minimoon,’ may have originated from Giordano Bruno crater on the far side of the moon, new research suggests. Read More.

Explosive black hole flare from the center of our galaxy reconstructed from ‘a single flickering pixel’ using AI and Einstein’s equations
An explosive flare from the Milky Way’s central black hole has been translated from ‘a single flickering pixel’ into a detailed 3D model using AI and Einstein’s general relativity equations.  Full Story: Live Science (4/22)

Ancient, 30-foot ancestor of great white shark unearthed in Mexico quarry
“Exceptionally preserved” fossils of an ancient shark that lived alongside the dinosaurs has finally revealed what the predator looked like — and why it may have gone extinct. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ankara, Turkey
The sun sets over Tuz Lake, a Unesco-protected area known for its water naturally turning pink because of algae in the summer and for its massive flamingo colony
Photograph: Hakan Nural/Anadolu/Getty Images

Hanover, Germany
A visitor plays paper, scissors, stone with an SVH servo-electric 5 finger gripping hand at a technology fair
Photograph: Ronny Hartmann/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Lier, Norway
‘There is still a lot of snow on the ground in March in the south-east of the country. But the days when the clouds and mist stay low and swirl around the valley landscape are a real treat to see.’
Photograph: Ann Thomstad
Market Closes for April 24^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38460.92	-42.77
		-0.11%
S&P 500	5071.63	+1.08
		+0.02%
NASDAQ	15712.75	+16.11
		+0.10%
TSX	21873.72	-138.00
		-0.63%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38460.08	+907.92
		+2.42%
HANG SENG	17201.27	+372.34
		+2.21%
SENSEX	73852.94	+114.49
		+0.16%
FTSE 100*	8040.38	-4.43
		-0.06%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.795	3.760
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.695	3.666
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6417	4.6004
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7712	4.7272

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7297	0.7319
US $	1.3705	1.3662

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4661	0.6821
US $	1.0698	0.9347

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2328.45	2334.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	84.17	82.85

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1956: In a first, the New York Stock Exchange allowed its opening bell to be rung by an outside guest—Leonard Ross, who won $100,000 on a TV quiz show largely on the strength of his knowledge of stock-market trivia.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 21,873.72 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.7% on April 15 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Today, industrials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 126 of 224 shares fell, while 92 rose.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.3%.
Equinox Gold Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 1.3%
* The index advanced 5.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.3% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 17% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1% in the past 5 days and fell 0.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 14.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.49t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 8.23% compared with 8.22% in the previous session and the average of 7.97% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | -89.8631| -2.9| 7/19
Financials | -41.2946| -0.6| 10/17
Information Technology | -21.5722| -1.2| 4/6
Communication Services | -7.6020| -1.1| 0/5
Real Estate | -1.7895| -0.4| 3/18
Health Care | -0.0665| -0.1| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | 0.6846| 0.1| 6/7
Utilities | 1.4471| 0.2| 9/5
Consumer Staples | 2.4799| 0.3| 7/4
Materials | 6.7375| 0.3| 23/25
Energy | 12.8433| 0.3| 22/18
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -49.1300| -6.3| 160.2| 7.0
Canadian National | -34.0900| -4.8| 91.9| 1.1
Shopify | -17.6500| -2.1| -20.2| -4.0
Brookfield Corp | 3.8990| 0.7| 3.2| 4.5
Agnico Eagle Mines | 4.5230| 1.5| -10.9| 20.1
Enbridge | 6.6860| 0.9| -3.3| 2.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks struggled to gain much traction, with Wall Street traders gearing up for economic data that will help shape the views on the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
In late trading, Meta Platforms Inc. tumbled after a disappointing revenue forecast.
Equities fluctuated after their biggest gain in two months.
Mega-caps were mixed, with Tesla Inc. surging after Elon Musk vowed to launch less-expensive vehicles and Nvidia Corp. sliding.
Treasuries remained under pressure after a $70 billion sale of notes failed to assuage concerns about more losses.
For weeks, traders have been scaling back bets on how many rate cuts they expect from the Fed amid a string of resilient US data.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict gross domestic product likely cooled to around 2.5% in the first quarter, while suggesting persistent inflationary pressures.
“Tomorrow’s pivotal GDP report comes as market participants hope for a soft number that would lead to rate cuts sooner rather than later,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “We expect a stronger-than-projected figure. It would be great for revenue growth prospects, but bad for the timing and extent of rate cuts.”
The S&P 500 closed slightly above 5,070.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.64%.
The yen weakened beyond 155 per dollar, fueling intervention jitters.
Buoyed by strong economic data and persistent inflation, traders have sought higher yields for holding government bonds as they revise down their expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
However, higher yields and rates signal the cost of servicing US federal debt is becoming burdensome, he noted.
Interest rates staying elevated longer, along with economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil have lessened the appeal of some of the stock market’s cheapest strategies.
Investors this month have pulled some $200 million out of value based exchange-traded funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
In contrast, growth stocks have attracted more than $3 billion in inflows — despite a shaky stock market that’s raised concerns of more downside to come.
That diminished interest in cheap stocks comes on the heels of lackluster performances of common value products.
To Katrina Dudley at Franklin Templeton, valuations are fair — therefore companies need to continue to deliver on earnings growth.
“For the market overall, we’ll be watching guidance,” said Matt Palazzolo at Bernstein Private Wealth Management. “While it’s good to know how companies did from January to March — it’s more important now to have a sense for managements’ expectations for the balance of the year.”
With several high-profile earnings reports this week, Mark Hackett at Nationwide says those figures will further test investors’ comfort.
While the cohort of seven mega-caps has done well in the last two years because of their superior earnings-per-share growth relative to the broader market, this advantage could decrease in 2024 and even more significantly in 2025, Hackett noted.  “The Magnificent Seven are not nearly as powerful as they once were, and this broadening of the market is creating pockets of opportunity for the rest of the S&P 500,” he noted. “We see this as a positive development for investors looking to diversify away from the recent market leaders,” he added.
Meantime, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicator is flashing a resounding buy signal in US stocks, after it hit a threshold that typically precedes better-than-average gains.
The bank’s US Tactical Positioning Monitor hit a level that reflects an “attractive set-up” for the S&P 500, according to a team led by Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan’s head of US market intelligence.
The stock gauge has historically gained around 3% in the subsequent 20 days after a similar four-week change in positioning, compared to a roughly 1% gain in all periods, according to the note.

Corporate Highlights:
* International Business Machines Corp. is nearing a deal to acquire software company HashiCorp Inc. for about $35 per share, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Boeing Co. Chief Executive Officer Dave Calhoun said the embattled plane-maker is making progress toward turning around its manufacturing and that it will hit its mid-decade cash-flow goal, even after reporting a major outflow in the first three months of the year it slows output
* B. Riley Financial Inc.’s auditors signed off on its annual report, while flagging concerns about weak internal controls.
* Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp.’s investments into artificial intelligence startups will get deeper scrutiny from the UK’s antitrust watchdog.
* AT&T Inc. beat analysts’ estimates for profit in the first quarter as it added more wireless phone customers than expected.
* Biogen Inc. reported first-quarter profit that beat expectations as the biotech giant’s new Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi gained traction and cost cuts took hold.
* Visa Inc. reported a quarterly profit that beat Wall Street predictions as US credit-card spending climbed.
* Humana Inc. pulled its guidance for next year amid mounting pressures in its Medicare business.
* Hasbro Inc. reported first-quarter earnings that beat estimates, a promising sign for the company’s turnaround efforts.
* Mattel Inc. reported a smaller-than-expected first-quarter loss, benefiting from fast sales of its Hot Wheels miniature cars and lower costs.
* Citigroup Inc. turned bearish on Molson Coors Beverage Co., expecting sales trends will weaken as benefits from last year’s Bud Light boycott fade.
* SunPower Corp. will eliminate more than 25% of its workforce as the company copes with a prolonged slump in the rooftop solar business.

Key events this week:
* US GDP, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Microsoft, Alphabet, Airbus earnings, Thursday
* Japan rate decision, Tokyo CPI, inflation and GDP forecasts, Friday
* US personal income and spending, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Exxon Mobil, Chevron earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was unchanged at $1.0701
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2464
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 155.30 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.6% to $63,938.36
* Ether fell 2.4% to $3,133.35
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.64%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.33%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $82.93 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,319.55 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova and Carly Wanna.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Ambition does not see the earth she treads on: The rock and the herbage are of one substance to her. –Walter Savage Landor, 1775-1864.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
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