May 4, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

There is going to be a supermoon tomorrow night.  According to the G & M today, “A supermoon occurs when a full moon is also at it perigee, its closest point to Earth on its elliptical path.”  Tomorrow it will reach this perigee at 11:34 pm ET and will line up with the Earth and the sun to appear especially big and bright.  It should be pretty beautiful.

 

And on this day in,

1814 – Napoleon begins his exile on the island of Elba in the Mediterranean Sea

1930 – Mahatma Gandhi is arrested by the British

1942 – The United States begins food rationing

1943 – The Battle of the Coral Sea begins
1970 – Ohio National Guardsmen open fire on students at Kent State, killing 4 students and wounding 9 others
photos of the day

May 4, 2012

Mallory McCallen, from Houston, reads through a race program before the running of the first race before the 138th running of the Kentucky Oaks horse race at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Charlie Riedel/AP

An Indian woman farmer collects beans from a vegetable field on the outskirts of Jammu, India.

Channi Anand/AP

Market Closes for May 4, 2012:

North American Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13038.27 -168.32 

 

-1.27%

 

S&P 500 1369.10 -22.47

 

-1.61%

 

NASDAQ 2956.34 -67.96 

 

-2.25%

 

TSX 11871.23 -143.67 

 

-1.20%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9380.25 +29.30 

 

+0.31%

 

HANG 

SENG

21086.00 -163.53 

 

-0.77% 

 

SENSEX 16831.08 -380.11 

 

-1.87% 

 

FTSE 100 5655.06 -111.49 

 

-1.93%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.020 1.992
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.543 2.588
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.8786 1.9224
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.0709 3.1103

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.00375 1.01156
US  

$

0.99626 0.98857
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.30363 0.76709
US 

$

1.30852 0.76422

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1642.23 1636.07
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 98.49 102.54
BRENT 113.61 116.63 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

May 4 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, completing their biggest weekly decline this year, after U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast and energy shares declined with oil prices.

Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s largest oil and gas producer, dropped 3.5 percent. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the country’s third-biggest energy company, sank 3.7 percent after its profit trailed estimates. Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s biggest lender, decreased 1.6 percent. Goldcorp Inc., the world’s second-biggest producer of the metal, rose 1.3 percent as gold gained on speculation the Federal Reserve will add to stimulus measures to boost growth.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index decreased 143.67 points, or 1.2 percent, to 11,871.23 in Toronto. The index fell 3 percent over five days, its worst week since Dec. 16, and erased its gain for the year.

“The U.S. payroll numbers were a lot weaker than expected,” Anil Tahiliani, a money manager at McLean & Partners in Calgary, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about C$1 billion ($1 billion). “Uncertainty has come back on the table in terms of headline risk. The market has been looking for an excuse in the last day or two to take it lower.”

Canadian stocks retreated after two straight weekly gains as Spain entered a recession, a U.S. industry report showed employers added fewer jobs than forecast last month and commodity prices dropped. Energy and mining shares account for 44 percent of Canadian stocks by market value, compared with 20 percent in the U.S.

U.S. payrolls climbed 115,000 in April, the smallest gain in six months, the Labor Department reported today. The median estimate of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 160,000 advance. The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent.

Royal Bank of Canada decreased 1.6 percent to C$54.95.

Toronto-Dominion Bank, Canada’s second-largest lender, fell 0.7 percent to C$81.16. Bank of Nova Scotia, the country’s third- largest lender, dropped 1 percent to C$52.75.

Great-West Lifeco Inc., Canada’s second-biggest insurance company, fell 8.8 percent to C$22.19 after its first-quarter results fell short of analysts’ estimates and Bank of Montreal lowered its rating on the shares.

Energy stocks in the S&P/TSX declined as oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since February after the U.S. jobs report fanned concern that the economy of the world’s largest crude-consuming country may be losing speed.

Suncor Energy dropped 3.5 percent to C$30.17. Canadian Natural Resources sank 3.7 percent to C$31.71 after reporting first quarter adjusted profit that missed the average analyst estimate by 35 percent. Oil-sands producer Cenovus Energy Inc. declined 5.3 percent to C$32.15.

Materials companies fell as declining prices for copper and wheat outweighed an increase in gold.

Teck Resources Ltd., the country’s biggest base metals producer, dropped 1.6 percent to C$34.79. First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Canada’s second-largest publicly traded copper producer, slipped 4.3 percent to C$18.82. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the biggest fertilizer company, fell 0.8 percent to C$42.32.

Gold gained for the first time this week after U.S. jobs figures increased the metal’s appeal as a hedge in the event of additional stimulus measures.

Goldcorp rose 1.3 percent to C$36.43. Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest producer of the metal, gained 0.4 percent to C$37.66.

US

By Rita Nazareth

May 4 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks declined a third day, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its worst week in 2012, after data showing employers added fewer jobs than forecast intensified concern about the pace of economic recovery.

The S&P 500 retreated 1.6 percent to 1,368.88 at 4 p.m. New York time, according to preliminary closing data, extending its weekly decline to 2.5 percent.

“The data point to sluggish job growth, declining labor market participation and for those employed, stagnant purchasing power,” Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an e-mail today.

“Consumption is less dynamic at a time when headwinds from Europe and a potential fiscal cliff are still material.”

Equities slumped as payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest gain in six months and below the estimate for a 160,000 advance.

The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent as people left the labor force. Concern about Europe’s debt crisis also helped send stocks slower as services and manufacturing output in the euro region shrank and France, Germany and Greece prepared for elections this weekend.

Some investors said economic concern adds to speculation the Federal Reserve will consider additional steps to boost growth. The Fed may announce a third-round of asset purchases, or quantitative easing, if economic data continues to disappoint, said Keith Wirtz, at Fifth Third Asset Management.

A negative reading in a measure of forecasting accuracy shows data have been worse than economists expected. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index was at minus 23.40 today. The gauge a year ago plunged into negative figures ahead of an economic soft patch that prompted the Fed, in an initiative dubbed “Operation Twist,” to replace $400 billion of short- term debt in its portfolio with longer-dated securities.

“The labor report may be the first beat on the drum for QE3,” said Wirtz, who oversees $15 billion as chief investment officer for Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati. “As we proceed into summer, watch the releases. Negative beats will lead to Fed actions before Labor Day — ironic by accident.”

Since reaching a 12-year low in March 2009, the S&P 500 has more than doubled amid government’s stimulus measures and as corporate profits beat estimates for the 13th straight quarter.

About 71 percent of S&P 500 companies that reported results since the start of the earnings season have topped projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

It is not a question of belief.

Stop believing in that which is;

this is what is taught in jnâna yoga.

Believe in no other,

stop believing in that which is;

this is the first stage.  Dare to be rational.

Dare to follow reason where it may take you.

-Swami Vivekananda, 1863-1902

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Winners never quit and quitters never win.

-Vince Lombardi, 1913-1970

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

May 2, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

Received this news alert from The Wall Street Journal earlier today:

By Kelly Crow

Let the art market roar. Norwegian painter Edvard Munch became the most expensive artist at auction Wednesday when his 1895 pastel of a terrified man clutching his cheeks along an Oslo fjord, “The Scream,” sold for $119.9 million at Sotheby’s—the most ever paid for a work of art at auction.

The purchase surpasses the $106.5 million spent two years ago for Pablo Picasso’s 1932 portrait of his mistress, “Nude, Green Leaves and Bust,” as well as Alberto Giacometti’s earlier record of $104.3 million for his 1960 spindly bronze sculpture, “Walking Man I.”

Edvard Munch, ‘The Scream,’ 1895

In a dogged contest at the auction house’s New York saleroom, the bidding for Munch’s “Scream” began at $40 million and shot up quickly, with five bidders from the U.S. and China competing for the sunset-colored portrait. Charlie Moffett, a Sotheby’s specialist who represents American buyers, fielded the anonymous winning bid by phone.

The record-setting Munch was considered a plum as much for its rarity as for its pop-culture ubiquity. One of four versions of “The Scream” that Munch created, this version was the only one not in an Oslo museum and the first to ever come up at auction. The image has also been reproduced on everything from ice-cream containers to the villain’s mask in Wes Craven’s “Scream” horror films.

The work had been priced to sell for about $80 million. Sale prices, unlike estimates, include the auction house’s commission, which is 25% on the first $50,000, 20% up to $1 million and 12% above $1 million.

The sale reflects the trophy-hunting atmosphere buoying the global art market, as billionaires around the world vie for the few masterpieces that come up for sale in any given season. Bragging rights are at stake, but their collective bidding has also helped recalibrate price levels for dozens of top artists.

The Many Faces of Munch’s “The Scream”


The Simpsons TM and 2012 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation.

“The Scream” has inspired many pop-culture mash-ups. Here, Homer Simpson swirls with existential dread.

Outside the auction houses, artworks have already traded for even more: Five years ago, Chicago collector Stefan Edlis sold Andy Warho piecel “Turquoise Marilyn” to hedge-fund billionaire Steven Cohen for at least $80 million. Dealers say Greek shipping magnate George Embiricos sold his Paul Cezanne painting, “Card Players,” to an anonymous buyer last year for at least $250 million. Details of that $250 million sale remain cloudy in part because Mr. Embiricos died last fall, and no buyer for his record-setting painting has since stepped forward. Dealers say the likely buyers include Qatar’s royal family, which declined to comment, and billionaires from Greece and Russia.

“There’s a lot of money out there now, and it doesn’t take many billionaires to push up a price,” said Mr. Edlis, the Chicago collector, before the sale. “You can only buy so many yachts, and a painting is so much better to look at than a bankbook.” Mr. Edlis said he didn’t plan to enter the fray on the Munch.

Elsewhere in Sotheby’s sale, collectors also chased after a group of works coming from the estate of financier Theodore Forstmann, a pioneer in the leveraged-buyout business. Mr. Forstmann was the senior founding partner of the investment firm Forstmann Little & Co., and chairman and CEO of IMG Worldwide Holdings, Inc.

Ellen Gamerman/The Wall Street Journal:

Leading this group of colorful, modern paintings and bronze sculptures was Picasso’s $29.2 million “Woman Sitting in a Chair” from 1941, and Chaim Soutine’s $9.3 million “The Hunter of Maxim’s” from 1925.

“The Scream” carries its own mystique, having come from the collection of Petter Olsen, a Norwegian real-estate developer and shipping heir who grew up with the work in the living room of his childhood home. His father, Thomas Olsen, a neighbor of Munch’s in the small Norwegian town of Hvitsten, bought the work from the German coffee magnate who likely commissioned it. During World War II, Mr. Olsen said his family hid the work along with dozens of other Munch artworks in a hay barn to protect them from the Nazis, who were destroying artworks they deemed degenerate. Mr. Olsen has said he offered up “The Scream” now in order to fund a museum of Munch’s work in Hvitsten to open next year.

The work itself depicts a bald, skeletal figure in a blue shirt standing at a popular suicide spot on Oslo’s horseshoe-shaped bay where people could often hear screams from a nearby insane asylum, according to art historians. Munch’s sister, who had been diagnosed with schizophrenia, was housed in that asylum. (There’s still debate over whether Munch’s character is actually screaming or using his hands to muffle the sound of surrounding screams.)

The third in a series created between 1893 and 1910, Sotheby’s version was created with pastel on rough board and offered in its original frame, which is inscribed with an 1892 poem Munch wrote that inspired the work. In the poem, he says he was walking beside that fjord when he sensed “an infinite scream passing through nature.”

Historians hail Munch for breaking away from the Impressionists who still held sway over the art world in the late 19th century. Instead of playing with light and shadow to capture the world around him, Munch experimented with ways to visualize his own tormented emotions—a shift that helped pave the way for the Expressionists like Egon Schiele along with later Abstract Expressionists like Mark Rothko.

 

And, on this day in,

1670 – The Hudson’s Bay Company is founded
1946 – Prisoners revolt at California’s Alcatraz prison
1919 – The first U.S. air passenger service begins
1933 – Loch Ness Monster sighted

2011- Osama bin Laden killed during a raid on his compound in Abbottabad

 

You were born an original … Don’t die a copy. –John Mason

 

photos of the day

May 2, 2012

In this photo taken by Canadian Peter Mark in the end of April, 2012 and released today, a motorbike lies on a beach in Graham Island, western Canada. Japanese media say the motorcycle, lost in last year’s tsunami, washed up about 4,000 miles away in Canada. The owner, Yokoyama, was located through the license plate number, Fuji TV reported.

Peter Mark/Kyodo News

Mallard ducklings follow their mother into the grass on the south side of Nebraska Hwy. 2 near 13th Street in Lincoln, Neb.

Francis Gardler/The Journal-Star/AP

Market Closes for May 2, 2012:

North American Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13268.57 -10.75 

 

-0.08% 

 

S&P 500 1402.31 -3.51 

 

-0.25% 

 

NASDAQ 3059.85 +9.41 

 

+0.31% 

 

TSX 12230.12 -102.67 

 

-0.83% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9380.25 +29.30 

 

+0.31% 

 

HANG 

SENG

21309.08 +214.87 

 

+1.02% 

 

SENSEX 17301.91 -16.90 

 

-0.10% 

 

FTSE 100 5758.11 -54.12 

 

-0.93% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.018 2.045
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.594 2.612
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9277 1.9435
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.1159 3.1468

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.01341 1.01440
US  

$

0.98677 0.98580
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.29757 0.77067
US 

$

1.31498 0.76047

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1653.32 1661.95
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 105.22 106.21
BRENT 118.61 120.00 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

May 2 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, snapping a five- day rally, after a U.S. industry report showed employers added fewer jobs than forecast last month and commodity prices dropped.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the country’s third- largest energy company, declined 2.3 percent as oil dropped from a five-week high. Enbridge Inc., the nation’s largest pipeline company, dropped 0.9 percent. Barrick Gold Corp. decreased 2.7 percent as gold prices fell and the company reported results that matched analyst estimates. Copper producer First Quantum Minerals Ltd. lost 2.3 percent on declining prices for the metal.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index decreased 102.67 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,230.12 in Toronto.

“The key thing today is that gold and oil are down,” Irwin Michael, a portfolio manager at ABC Funds in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. Michael’s firm oversees C$1 billion ($1 billion). “It’s a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to the last week or so of good, solid gains in the marketplace.”

The benchmark gauge had its second straight weekly gain in the period ending April 27, marking the first time since February that the index increased in consecutive weeks. Canadian stocks rose on better-than-forecast corporate earnings and U.S. housing data that exceeded expectations. Energy and raw material stocks account for 44 percent of Canadian stocks by value.

Energy companies fell as crude oil futures extended declines after the U.S. Energy Department said stockpiles rose to the highest level in 21 years. Supplies increased 2.84 million barrels to 375.9 million, the department said today.

Canadian Natural Resources declined 2.3 percent to C$33.91.

Enbridge dropped 0.9 percent to C$40.94. Oil-sands producer Cenovus Energy Inc. fell 4.3 percent to C$34.61.

Materials stocks in the S&P/TSX declined as metal prices fell. Gold dropped the most in a week after three voting members of the  U.S. Federal Open Market Committee said they don’t see a need for more economic stimulus and the Bombay Bullion Association said imports of the metal fell by as much as a two- thirds in April from a year earlier in India, the biggest importer.

Barrick Gold, the world’s largest producer of the metal, fell 2.7 percent to C$38.80 after reporting earnings excluding some items of C$1.09 a share, matching the average analyst estimate. Goldcorp Inc., the world’s second-biggest bullion producer, decreased 1.4 percent C$37.54.

Copper dropped for the first time in more than a week as Europe’s slowing industrial output and rising unemployment signaled a worsening economic slump that may crimp demand.

First Quantum Minerals, Canada’s second-largest publicly traded copper producer, decreased 2.3 percent to C$20.01. Teck Resources Ltd., the country’s biggest base metals producer, slipped 2.2 percent to C$36.39.

Financial shares declined as ADP Employer Services said companies added the fewest U.S. workers in seven months in April.

Royal Bank of Canada, the country’s biggest lender, dropped 0.9 percent to C$56.36. Toronto-Dominion Bank, Canada’s second- largest lender, fell 0.5 percent to C$82.59.

US

By Rita Nazareth

May 2 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average down from the highest level since 2007, as data showed companies added fewer jobs than economists projected and euro-region unemployment rose to a 15-year high.

Energy and financial shares dropped the most among 10 groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Chesapeake Energy Corp. tumbled 15 percent after reporting an unexpected loss and saying it may run out of money next year under the weight of the lowest natural-gas prices in a decade. Bank of America Corp.

retreated 1.8 percent. Stocks pared their slump as a gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes advanced to the highest since 2008.

The S&P 500 slid 0.3 percent to 1,402.31 at 4 p.m. New York time, after falling 0.9 percent earlier today. The Dow dropped

10.75 points, or 0.1 percent, to 13,268.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.3 percent to 3,059.85 as Apple Inc. shares rebounded. About 6.6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, or 1.4 percent below the three-month average.

“The labor market is weak at best,” said Keith Wirtz, who oversees $15 billion as chief investment officer for Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati. “While we thought that we were gaining some momentum, more recent data suggest that things are sluggish. If we start to see a cascade of negative news, the market is going to be vulnerable.”

Equities fell as American companies added 119,000 workers in April, the fewest in seven months, according to a private report. Concern about Europe’s economy also helped drive stocks lower today. The jobless rate in the euro area rose to 10.9 percent in March, manufacturing contracted last month and unemployment in Germany unexpectedly increased.

The decline in stocks came after the S&P 500 rose to the highest level in almost a month yesterday. Today’s payroll survey intensified concern that Labor Department data in two days may show the U.S. isn’t growing fast enough to reduce unemployment. An index of forecasting accuracy shows data have been worse than economists predicted. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is at minus 20.40, the lowest since October.

“I’ve got a feeling that we might see a downside surprise on the monthly jobs report,” Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab Corp., said from Austin, Texas. His firm has $1.83 trillion in client assets. “Given how high the market is right now and this softening in economic data, it’s very likely to see a pullback in the range of 5 percent to 10 percent.”

Investors bought stocks this year on better-than-estimated earnings, sending the S&P 500 up 12 percent. About 73 percent of S&P 500 companies that reported results since April 10 have beaten projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Six out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 retreated as energy shares slumped 1.6 percent. Oil dropped from a five-week high after the U.S. Energy Department said stockpiles rose to the highest level in 21 years. Byron Wien, the 79 year-old chairman of Blackstone Group LP’s advisory services unit, is forecasting an annual drop in oil prices for the first time in his career as swelling production pushes global inventories higher.

Chesapeake tumbled 15 percent, the most since 2008, to $16.74. The company slashed its full-year 2012 and 2013 operating cash flow estimates by as much as 48 percent, and increased the amount of assets it plans to sell. This year’s cash flow estimate was lowered to $2.7 billion to $3 billion, from a February forecast of $4.5 billion to $5.2 billion.

The shares surged 6.3 percent yesterday amid plans to strip Chief Executive Officer Aubrey McClendon of the chairman’s job and end an executive perk that allowed him to buy personal stakes in every well the company drilled.

“I’m deeply sorry for all of the distractions of the past two weeks,” McClendon, co-founder of Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake, said on a conference call to discuss first-quarter results today. McClendon said the company may have to sell more assets than planned to cover a gap between cash flow and revenue if natural-gas prices remain depressed.

The KBW Bank Index dropped 0.9 percent as 18 of its 24 stocks retreated. Bank of America declined 1.8 percent to $8.16.

Citigroup Inc. slipped 2.7 percent to $32.70.

Bankrate Inc. plunged 15 percent, the most since it went public in June, to $20.19. The online publisher of personal finance information reported first-quarter earnings and revenue that fell short of estimates.

OpenTable Inc. sank 15 percent, the biggest decline since going public in 2009, to $37.13. The online restaurant- reservation service forecast revenue in 2012 of no more than $164 million, compared with the average analyst estimate of $168.5 million.

Stocks pared losses as a gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes rose 2.5 percent. Lennar Corp. gained 2.7 percent to $29.02. D.R. Horton Inc. added 3.4 percent to $17.22.

An International Strategy & Investment survey released yesterday showed sales by homebuilders climbed to a six-year high. The Los Angeles Times reported that the Federal Housing Finance Agency is under pressure to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reduce loan principal amounts for struggling borrowers.

A rebound in Apple, the world’s most valuable company, also helped trim some of the earlier slump in equities. Apple rose 0.7 percent to $585.98, after dropping for four straight days.

CVS Caremark Corp. rose 2.7 percent to $45.92. The largest provider of prescription drugs in the U.S. reported first- quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates after grabbing customers from Walgreen Co.

Con-way Inc. advanced 13 percent to $37. The U.S. trucking company said it earned 45 cents a share excluding some items in the first quarter. Analysts, on average, estimated 34 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Nike Inc., the world’s largest sporting-goods company, surged to an all-time high today. The shares added 2.7 percent to $114.28, extending this year’s rally to 19 percent.

TripAdvisor Inc. surged 17 percent to $42.63 for the biggest gain in the S&P 500. The online travel-recommendation service spun off from Expedia Inc. reported first-quarter profit and sales that topped some analysts’ estimates.

Financial shares are sending a signal that stock investors may be better off without a “sell in May” strategy this year, said Ari H. Wald, a Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. analyst.

The S&P 500’s financial stocks are beating the benchmark this year after lagging behind in 2011. The group’s weakness last year preceded five straight months of declines, from May through September, for the S&P 500.

Banks, insurers and other financial companies posted the year’s biggest gain among the S&P 500’s 10 main industry groups through yesterday. Their industry index rose 20 percent, just beating a 19 percent advance in a gauge of technology stocks.

Another favorable sign is that computer-related companies and other groups sensitive to economic swings are market leaders this year, Wald wrote yesterday in a report. Industries less affected by the economy’s performance were top performers through the first four months of last year.

There are indicators of weakness as well, he wrote. The number of 52-week highs in U.S. stocks after subtracting lows is shrinking, investor concern about a market slump has faded, yields on Treasury debt are low by historical standards, and commodity prices have fallen in the past two months.

The slump in these and other market barometers “has not progressed to the point that they support a bearish outlook as they did in May 2011,” Wald wrote. Instead, they point toward a “lack of full confirmation in either direction,” according to the New York-based analyst.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Do not believe a thing simply because it has been said.

Do not put your faith in traditions only because they have been honored by many generations.

Do not believe a thing because the general opinion believes it to be true or because it has been said repeatedly.

Do not believe  a thing because of the single witness of one of the sages of antiquity.

Do not believe a thing because the probabilities are in its favor,

or because you are in the habit of believing it to be true.

Do not believe in that which comes to your imagination,

thinking that it must be the revelation of a superior Being.

Believe nothing that binds you to the sole authority of your masters or priests.

That which you have tried yourself, which you have experienced, which you have recognized as true,

and which will be beneficial to you and to others;

believe that, and shape your conduct to it.

-Buddha

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Follow your desire as long as you live.

-Ptah-hotep, 25th-24th centuries B.C.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

 

May 1, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

 

May Day today:

Polydor Virgil says that the Roman youths used to go into the fields and spend the calends of May in dancing and singing in honor of Flora, goddess of fruits and flowers.  The English celebrated May Day with games and sports, particularly archers and Morris Dances and the setting up of the Maypole.  In due time Robin Hood and Maid Marian came to preside as Lord and Lady of the May, and by the 16th century May Day was Robin Hood’s day and Robin Hood plays became an integral part of the festivities. – from Brewar’s Dictionary f Phrase & Fable.

 

On this day in,

1961 – Fidel Castro announces there will no longer be elections in Cuba
1931 – The Empire State Building opens in New York City
1948 – North Korea is established
1970 – Kent State University riot in protest of U.S. invasion of Cambodia

Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~ Buddha
photos of the day

May 1, 2012

Marie Wieland tries to climb up a maypole during the traditional May Day celebrations in Lofer in the Austrian province of Salzburg.

Kerstin Joensson/AP

Swans glide through the flooded riverside walkways in the shadow of the cathedral in Worcester, England. Heavy rain lashed southern Britain overnight following the wettest April since records began.

David Jones/PA/AP

 

Market Closes for May 1, 2012:

North American Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13279.32 +65.69 

 

+0.50% 

 

S&P 500 1405.82 +7.91 

 

+0.57% 

 

NASDAQ 3050.44 +4.08 

 

+0.13% 

 

TSX 12328.88 +35.53 

 

+0.29% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9350.95 -169.94 

 

-1.78% 

 

HANG 

SENG

21094.21 +352.76
+1.70%

 

SENSEX 17318.81 +131.47

 

+0.76% 

 

FTSE 100 5812.23 +74.45 

 

+1.30% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.045 2.037
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.612 2.608
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9435 1.9137
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.1468 3.1111

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.01440 1.01245
US  

$

0.98580 0.98761
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.30489 0.76635
US 

$

1.32367 0.75548

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1661.95 1665.50
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 106.21 104.93
BRENT 120.00 120.27

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

May 1 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, driving the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index toward the longest winning streak since January, as energy shares increased with oil prices after a stronger-than-forecast U.S. manufacturing report.

Cameco Corp. the world’s largest uranium producer, gained 4 percent after reporting first-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates as sales of the nuclear-reactor fuel rose.

Suncor Energy Inc. increased 1.7 percent. Encana Corp., the country’s biggest natural gas producer by volume, increased 3.4 percent, as gas prices rose for a third day.

The S&P/TSX gained 60.06 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,352.75 at 2:45 p.m. in Toronto, rallying for a fifth-straight day.

“Oil is particularly strong today,” David Cockfield, a managing director at Northland Wealth Management in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about C$200 million ($200 million). “Things have quieted down in Europe to a degree. Investors are back in picking away at individual situations.”

The benchmark gauge had its second straight weekly gain in the period ending April 27, marking the first time since February that the index increased in consecutive weeks. Canadian stocks rose on better-than-forecast corporate earnings and U.S. housing data that exceeded expectations. Energy and raw material stocks account for 44 percent of Canadian stocks by value.

Energy companies increased as oil climbed to a one-month high after U.S. manufacturing increased at the fastest pace in 10 months, signaling that economic growth will accelerate in the world’s biggest crude-consuming country. Natural gas climbed on forecasts of below-normal temperatures that may increase heating fuel demand.

Suncor rose 1.7 percent to C$33.19. Encana increased 3.4 percent to C$21.39. Oil-sands company Cenovus Energy Inc. gained 1.2 percent to C$36.28.

Materials stocks in the S&P/TSX increased as copper prices rose after reports on U.S. manufacturing and automobile sales last month brightened prospects for demand. Teck Resources Ltd., the country’s biggest base metals producer, climbed 1.3 percent to C$37.34. Lundin Mining Corp. rallied 3.5 percent to C$4.97.

Cameco surged 4 percent to C$22.73 after saying in a statement today that net income increased to C$132 million, or 33 cents a share, from C$91 million, or 23 cents, a year earlier. Excluding a loss from contracts used to lock-in commodity prices, per-share profit was 31 cents, topping the 25- cent average of 10 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

TMX Group Inc., the exchange owner facing a C$3.73 billion takeover by a group of Canadian banks and pension funds, rose 2.6 percent to C$46.25 after the offer was extended pending regulatory approval. The shares climbed to C$46.44 intraday, the highest price since May 2008, approaching the C$50-a-share bid by Maple Group Acquisition Corp.

US

By Rita Nazareth

May 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since December 2007, after a better-than-estimated manufacturing report bolstered investors’ optimism in the world’s largest economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.6 percent to 1,405.91 at 4 p.m. New York time, the highest since April 3. The index trimmed an earlier rally of as much as 1.3 percent. The Dow added 67.36 points, or 0.5 percent, to 13,280.99.

“The economy is starting to get on its own two feet,” said Wayne Lin, a money manager at Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc. His firm oversees $643.3 billion. “Manufacturing is forward-looking. It leads what the actual economic activity tends to end up being. It tells us that firms are being a bit less conservative. Confidence is starting to reemerge.”

Stocks rallied as manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in April at the fastest pace in 10 months. The report added to optimism after data showed growth in Chinese manufacturing.

Investors also watched corporate earnings as about 74 percent of S&P 500 companies that reported results since April 10 have beaten projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Today’s gain extended this year’s advance in the S&P 500 to 12 percent. The index still trades at 14.3 times reported earnings, below the average since 1954 of 16.4. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said U.S. stocks offer good value and are likely to rise as earnings increase over time.

“Stocks are very cheap,” Greenspan, who served as Fed chairman from August 1987 to January 2006, said today at the Bloomberg Washington Summit hosted by Bloomberg Link. “There is no place for earnings to grow except into stock prices.”

Equities rebounded after the S&P 500 halted a four-month gain in April. Yet a rally of more than 10 percent in the first four months of the year has been a harbinger of gains in May, said Bespoke Investment Group. In the 19 times since 1927 that the S&P 500 has had such a start to the year, it has followed with an average gain of 2.2 percent in May, Bespoke data show.

The benchmark gauge has more than doubled since reaching a 12-year low on March 2009 amid government stimulus measures.

Better-than-estimated earnings and economic data show the Fed doesn’t need to add monetary stimulus right now, according to Kevin Rendino, a money manager at New York-based BlackRock Inc.

“We don’t need QE3 right now,” said Rendino, referring to a so-called third round of quantitative easing, or asset purchases to stimulate the economy. His firm oversees $3.68 trillion as the world’s largest asset manager. “We need to have an economy that can stand on its own.”

Stock market trend charts and investor sentiment are signaling the S&P 500 may surpass its 2012 high before the rally gives way to a 10 percent decline, according to UBS AG.

The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities is likely to exceed this year’s peak of 1,419.04 and climb to 1,460, after it held last month above its March 6 low, said Michael Riesner and Marc Mueller, Zurich-based analysts with UBS. The S&P 500 halted a five-day slump on April 10 at 1,358.59. Two weeks later, it rebounded from another drop at 1,358.79.

The level of 1,358 “represents a new pivotal support for the SPX,” the analysts wrote in a note yesterday, referring to the S&P 500’s ticker. “As long as the market trades above this level, the U.S. market remains bullish biased,” they said.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Adaptability is not imitation.

It means power of resistance and assimilation.

-Mahatma Gandhi,1869-1948

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

The first step in the journey is to

lose your way.

-Galway Kinnell, 1927-

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

 

April 30, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

 

Today is Beltane Day.  Beltane is the ancient Celtic festival, union of goddess and god, water and light.  All fires are extinguished at sunset on Beltane Eve, the midpoint between the spring equinox and the summer solstice.  In the blackness of night, bonfires were lit on the hill tops and cattle were driven between the flames.  At dawn, the sun dances; at the height of spring, Beltane begins, celebrating all that is powerful and sensual in nature.  The ancient Celts saw joy and life as one with suffering, death and rebirth.

 

On this day in,
1987 – The Meech Lake Accord reached between PM Brian Mulroney and 10 Premiers,
recognizing Québec as a distinct society –
1945 – Adolf Hitler commits suicide in his bunker. Karl Donitz becomes his successor.
1931 – George Washington Bridge opens, linking New York City and New Jersey
1972 – The North Vietnamese launch an invasion of the South
1975 – Fall of Saigon Ends the Vietnam War
1980 – Terrorists seize the Iranian Embassy in London

 

photos of the day

April 30, 2012

People walk on the ‘OCBC Skyway’ linking the Supertrees, ranging from 25-50 meters in height and serving as vertical gardens, in the nearly completed Gardens By The Bay just next to Singapore’s busy financial district. It is part of the city-state’s efforts to make the city ‘green’ and promote Singapore as a tropical city.

Wong Maye-E/AP

Viewed from Jersey City, N.J., two birds fly by as the sun rises over buildings in New York, including One World Trade Center, tallest building at left. One World Trade Center, the giant monolith being built to replace the twin towers destroyed in the Sept. 11 attacks, will lay claim to the title of New York City’s tallest skyscraper.

Julio Cortez/AP

Market Closes for April 30, 2012:

North American Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13213.63 -14.68 

 

-0.11% 

 

S&P 500 1397.91 -5.45 

 

-0.39% 

 

NASDAQ 3046.36 -22.84 

 

-0.74% 

 

TSX 12292.69 +54.94 

 

+0.45% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9520.89 -40.94 

 

-0.43% 

 

HANG 

SENG

21094.21 +352.76

 

+1.70%

 

SENSEX 17318.81 +131.47 

 

+0.76% 

 

FTSE 100 5737.78 -39.33 

 

-0.68% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.037 2.088
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.608 2.634
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9137 1.9348
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.1111 3.1200

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.01245 1.01999
US  

$

0.98761 0.98040
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.30768 0.76471
US 

$

1.32408 0.75524

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1665.50 1662.98
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 104.93 104.87
BRENT 120.27 120.47 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

April 30 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose for a fourth day as energy shares increased after Energy Transfer Partners LP’s deal to buy Sunoco Inc. spurred merger speculation in the industry.

Suncor Energy Inc. rose 3.1 percent and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. increased 2.4 percent after Energy Transfer agreed to pay $5.3 billion to expand its ability to ship higher- margin oil and natural gas liquids. Goldcorp Inc. and New Gold Inc. decreased 1.4 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively, after the Supreme Court of Chile halted construction on the companies’

joint copper-gold project.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index gained 54.94 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,292.69 in Toronto.

“There’s merger and acquisition speculation in that sector,” Danielle Park, a money manager at Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc. in Barrie, Ontario, said in a telephone interview. The firm manages at least C$1 million ($1 million) each for more than 200 clients. “Shares are already down pretty significantly across the board” among energy shares, “so there may be some relative value there that people are finding,” Park said.

The benchmark gauge had its second straight weekly gain in the five days ending April 27, marking the first time since February that the index increased in two consecutive weeks.

Canadian stocks rose on better-than-forecast corporate earnings and U.S. housing data that exceeded expectations.

A gauge of energy stocks in the S&P/TSX rose 1.4 percent today to cut its loss for the year to 0.2 percent. Suncor, the country’s biggest oil and gas producer, advanced 3.1 percent to C$32.63. Canadian Natural Resources, Canada’s third biggest energy company, increased 2.4 percent to C$34.11. Enbridge Inc., the nation’s largest pipeline company, gained 2.2 percent to C$41.39.

Raw material producers declined after Canada’s gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent in February and Spain entered a recession.

First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Canada’s second-largest publicly traded copper producer, dropped 2.9 percent to C$20.52.

Manulife Financial Corp. slipped 1 percent to C$13.51.

“It’s the economic report for GDP in February coupled with some of the nervousness around European economic performance,” Bob Decker, a money manager at Aurion Capital in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about C$5.5 billion ($5.6 billion).

Canada’s output fell to an annualized C$1.28 trillion ($1.30 trillion) in February, after a January gain of 0.1 percent, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast a 0.2 percent increase, according to the median of 24 responses.

Mining and oil and gas extraction dropped 1.6 percent to C$57.2 billion in February, while mining fell 7 percent as weak global demand led to potash shutdowns and several Ontario nickel mines closed “for safety issues,” Statistics Canada said.

Goldcorp fell 1.4 percent to C$37.83 and New Gold declined 8.4 percent to C$9. The companies stopped work at their El Morro copper and gold project after Chile’s Supreme Court suspended approval of the mine’s environmental permit. Goldcorp owns 70 percent of the venture, while New Gold owns the remaining 30 percent.

Dundee Precious Metals Inc. plunged 11 percent, the most since November 2009, to C$7.69. The Namibian government told the company to reduce output at a copper smelter by about 50 percent until projects to capture emissions are completed.

US

By Rita Nazareth

April 30 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined, halting a four-month advance, after a report showed that business activity expanded at the slowest pace since November 2009 and Spain’s economy entered into a recession.

Bank of America Corp., Caterpillar Inc. and Monsanto Co. retreated at least 1.7 percent. Humana Inc. tumbled 8.1 percent as profit at the provider of U.S.-backed Medicare insurance missed analysts’ projections. NYSE Euronext slumped 4.9 percent amid a 44 percent decline in earnings. Barnes & Noble Inc. soared a record 52 percent after Microsoft Corp. said it plans to invest $300 million in a venture with the bookstore chain.

The S&P 500 lost 0.4 percent to 1,397.91 at 4 p.m. New York time, extending its April decline to 0.7 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 14.68 points, or 0.1 percent, to 13,213.63 today. The gauge rose less than 0.1 percent in April, gaining for a seventh month in the longest winning streak since 2007. About 6.1 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 8.9 percent below the three-month average.

“Europe is a chronic situation,” said Russ Koesterich, the San Francisco-based global chief investment strategist for the IShares unit of BlackRock Inc. His firm oversees $3.68 trillion as the largest asset manager. “Even under a best-case scenario, where there’s no banking crisis, the reality is: it’s going to be a very slow process. While you’ve got evidence that the U.S. is recovering, the rebound will be uneven.”

Equities fell as the Institute for Supply Management- Chicago Inc. said its barometer slid to 56.2 during the month, lower than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Consumer spending in the U.S. rose in March. Spain entered its second recession since 2009.

Today’s decline came after the S&P 500 capped the biggest weekly gain in more than a month. The measure was still up 11 percent in 2012 amid better-than-estimated economic and corporate data. About 74 percent of S&P 500 companies that reported results since April 10 have beaten earnings projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The economic doldrums in Europe are casting a shadow over any progress we’re making,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank in Chicago, which oversees about $60 billion. “We may not get a negative period for the market, but it may just be a quiet one.”

Technology and industrial shares fell the most among 10 S&P 500 groups. A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes slid 1.6 percent after last week surging to the highest since 2008. Bank of America fell 1.7 percent to $8.11. Caterpillar slipped 1.7 percent to $102.77. Monsanto dropped 2.1 percent to $76.18.

Humana lost 8.1 percent, the most since 2009, to $80.68.

Net income dropped 21 percent to $248 million, or $1.49 a share, from $315 million, or $1.86, a year earlier. The per-share result missed by 2 cents the $1.51 average of 9 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

NYSE Euronext slumped 4.9 percent to $25.75. European regulators blocked NYSE Euronext from merging with Deutsche Boerse AG in February, frustrating plans to mitigate a slowdown in stock trading and boost earnings and sales through cooperation on derivatives. Today’s report highlights the challenges that spurred the takeover proposal, exacerbated by a decline in equity volume across American exchanges to some of the worst levels in a decade.

VeriFone Systems Inc. slipped 12 percent to $47.64. The largest maker of credit-card terminals was cut to sell from hold by Deutsche Bank AG.

Barnes & Noble soared 52 percent, the most in the Russell 2000 Index, to $20.75. The investment will give Microsoft about 18 percent of the newly formed company, which has yet to be named. The companies will develop a Nook e-reader application for Windows 8 and have also settled their patent litigation.

Merck & Co. jumped 2 percent, the biggest gain in the Dow, to $39.24. The company’s patent for the cholesterol drugs Zetia and Vytorin is valid and enforceable, a federal judge ruled April 27 in a case against Mylan Inc., which sought to sell generic versions of the drugs before the patent expires.

Takeover news helped lift some companies today, limiting the market’s losses. Sunoco Inc. climbed the most in the S&P 500, adding 20 percent to $49.29. The Philadelphia-based refiner agreed to be acquired for $5.3 billion in shares and cash by Energy Transfer Partners LP, which is adding oil transportation and distribution assets.

Gen-Probe Inc. surged 19 percent to $81.55. Hologic Inc., a maker of diagnostic medical and surgical devices, agreed to buy the company for about $3.7 billion in cash to expand its tests for sexually transmitted diseases.

Warner Chilcott Plc rallied 16 percent to $21.81. The maker of dermatology and women’s health drugs said it is exploring a sale of the company and is in talks with potential buyers.

Monster Beverage Corp. jumped as much as 28 percent after the Wall Street Journal reported Coca-Cola Co. is in talks to buy the maker of energy drinks, then erased the gain after Coca- Cola denied the report. Monster lost 0.8 percent to $65. Coca- Cola slid 0.4 percent to $76.32, trimming a loss of as much as 0.9 percent.

Harman International Industries Inc. gained 4.9 percent to $49.58. The maker of car audio systems reported third-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates and announced a record- high $2 billion contract.

Analysts predict U.S. shares will rise enough this year to boost the S&P 500 to a record, even as Wall Street strategists say the best is already over for American equities.

Individual price forecasts for stocks show the combined projection for the gauge has risen to 1,569.74, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with the October 2007 high of 1,565.15. At the same time, strategists who base their predictions on assessments of the economy say this year’s rally represents all the gains investors will see.

Bullish forecasts are based on analysts’ expectations that S&P 500 earnings will reach records every year through 2014 as stimulus by the Federal Reserve props up the U.S. economy. Bears say Europe’s debt crisis won’t be contained and economic growth will be insufficient to maintain gains.

Analysts are signaling that 13 straight quarters of higher- than-expected earnings and record profits through 2014 will help drive the gauge back to its all-time high. Earnings will jump 14 percent to $105.12 a share in 2012, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“The financial strength of corporate America is stronger than people believe,” Jeffrey Schwarte, a money manager who helps oversee about $258.2 billion in Des Moines, Iowa, at Principal Global Investors, said in a telephone interview on April 25. “We believe earnings ultimately matter.”

 

Have  a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

To expect something is to look for something pleasant.

Searching for the pleasurable is a form of denial.

You cannot expect anything, because the expectation is within you,

and what you are waiting for is dependent on external forces.

-Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence.

Talent will not; nothing is more common than

unsuccessful people with talent.  Genius will not; un-rewarded

genius is almost a proverb.

-Calvin Coolidge, 1872-1933

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

April 27, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

 

On this day in,

4977 B.C. – The Universe is created, according to German mathemetician Johannes Kepler (1571-1630); apparently he was off by 13.7 billion years

1994, Richard Nixon was laid to rest beside his Presidential library.

1813 – American forces capture York (present-day Toronto), the seat of government in Ontario.
1989 – Protesting students take over Tiananmen Square, in Beijing, China
1978 – The Afghanistan Revolution begins

photos of the day

April 27, 2012

India’s PSLV C-19 lifts off carrying its first indigenous radar imaging satellite RISAT-1 at the Satish Dhawan Space Center in Sriharikota, India. The satellite has the capability to take images of the earth during day and night as well as in cloudy conditions and will facilitate agriculture and disaster management, according to a news agency.

Arun Sankar K./AP

Passengers are pictured during the inauguration trip of the new regional two-floor train of the Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) connecting Geneva and Lausanne in Coppet near Geneva.

Valentin Flauraud/Reuters

Market Closes for April 27, 2012:

North American Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

13228.31 +23.69

 

+0.18%

 

S&P 500 1403.36 +3.38

 

+0.24%

 

NASDAQ 3069.20 +18.59

 

+0.61%

 

TSX 12237.75 +91.90

 

+0.76%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9520.89 -40.94

 

-0.43%

 

HANG

SENG

20741.45 -68.26

 

-0.33%

 

SENSEX 17134.25 +3.58

 

+0.02%

 

FTSE 100 5777.11 +28.39

 

+0.49%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

2.088 2.055
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.634 2.620
U.S.

10 Year Bond

1.9348 1.9471
U.S.

30 Year Bond

3.1200 3.1224

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.01999 1.01443
US

$

0.98040 0.98578
 
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse

Canadian

$

1.29923 0.76969
US

$

1.32521 0.75460

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1662.98 1658.28
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 104.93 104.65
BRENT 120.47 120.15

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

April 27 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks advanced, capping their second straight weekly gain, as metal and natural gas producers rose with prices for the commodities.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., a gold producer that operates in Canada, Mexico and Finland, gained 9.6 percent after reporting profit that beat analyst estimates. Encana Corp., the country’s biggest natural gas producer by volume, increased 3.8 percent.

Petrominerales Ltd., a Calgary-based oil company that operates in Latin America, plunged 18 percent after saying an exploration well was dry.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index increased 91.90 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,237.75 in Toronto, for a 0.7 percent weekly gain. Natural gas futures rose to a three-week high and copper and gold increased as the U.S. dollar weakened following government data showing the American economy grew at a slower-than-forecast rate of 2.2 percent, even with the biggest gain in consumer spending in more than a year.

“You’re finally seeing the private sector pick up the slack while government stimulus trails off,” Barry Schwartz, a money manager at Baskin Financial Services Inc. in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about C$400 million ($400 million). “I think there’s a big possibility for a rebound.”

The benchmark gauge had its first weekly gain in almost two months in the five days ending April 20, snapping its longest losing streak since 2008. Canadian stocks have rallied this week on better-than-forecast corporate earnings and U.S. housing data that exceeded expectations.

Materials companies increased along with gold futures, which advanced for the second straight day as the dollar declined, increasing demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

Agnico-Eagle Mines gained 9.6 percent to C$38.66 after reporting earnings excluding some items of 59 cents a share, exceeding the average analyst estimate of 37 cents. Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest producer of the metal, climbed 1.4 percent to C$39.88.

Energy stocks in the S&P/TSX increased as natural gas rallied on forecasts of colder-than-normal weather in the eastern and central U.S. that may boost demand for the heating fuel.

Encana increased 3.8 percent to C$20.18. Cenovus Energy Inc., the oil sands company spun off by Encana, advanced 3.4 percent to C$35.17. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the country’s third-largest energy company, rose 2.1 percent to C$33.31.

Petrominerales plunged 18 percent to C$14.09 after the company said it found no hydrocarbons at the La Colpa 2X well on Block 126 in Peru after completing testing.

Progressive Waste Solutions drove in index of Canadian industrials lower, dropping 4.5 percent to C$21.44. The nation’s biggest waste-management company reported earnings excluding some items of 20 cents per share, falling short of the average analyst estimate of 23 cents.

TMX Group Inc., the Canadian exchange owner facing a C$3.73 billion takeover by a group of Canadian banks and pension funds, rose 4.6 percent to C$44.70 after an antitrust regulator said its “serious concerns” on the sale may be mitigated by proposed rules governing the bourse.

US

By Rita Nazareth

April 27 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index capped the best week in a month, as retailers surged to a record, after improving corporate earnings and consumer confidence tempered lower-than-forecast economic growth.

Retailers in the S&P 500 climbed 3.5 percent for the biggest gain among 24 groups. Amazon.com Inc., the largest Internet retailer, and Expedia Inc., an online-travel company, surged at least 15 percent as earnings beat estimates. A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes rallied 3 percent to the highest level since October 2008. Starbucks Corp. tumbled 5.3 percent as same-store sales trailed analysts’ projections.

The S&P 500 added 0.2 percent to 1,403.36 at 4 p.m. New York time. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities rallied 1.8 percent since April 20 for a back-to-back weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 23.69 points, or 0.2 percent, to 13,228.31. About 6.2 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, or 7 percent below the three-month average.

“It all tells me that the economy continues to grow at a slow, steady pace,” said Jeffrey Layman, chief investment officer of BKD Wealth Advisors in Springfield, Missouri. His firm has $1.9 billion under management. “Consumers are feeling more confident and it’s a good thing. We’re pleased with the overall improvement in earnings.”

About 75 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 that reported results since April 10 have topped analysts’ estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Per-share profits are forecast to have grown 5.3 percent in the first-quarter, Bloomberg data show. That’s up from the 0.8 percent growth projection before the earnings season started.

Equities rose even after data showed the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, less than the 2.5 percent increase forecast by economists. Confidence among U.S. consumers climbed in April to the highest level in a year, according to a separate report.

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian said lower-than-forecast U.S. growth suggests additional monetary stimulus remains on option for the Federal Reserve even though there is no immediate need for action.

“If we continue this weakening trend, the Fed will come back in and try to sustain this market and this economy,” El- Erian, the chief executive officer of the world’s largest manager of bond funds, said during an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu. “I don’t think there is an immediate need now.”

Today’s rally trimmed this month’s decline in the S&P 500 to 0.4 percent. If the index erases its April drop, it will cap the fifth straight month of gains, the longest winning streak since 2009. The gauge has gained 12 percent so far this year.

Six out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 rose today as companies that rely on consumer discretionary spending and industrial shares had the biggest gains. Ten of 11 stocks in a measure of homebuilders in S&P indexes advanced.

Amazon surged 16 percent, the biggest advance since October 2009, to $226.85. The company posted earnings-per-share that quadrupled the average analyst estimate. Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos is looking to add customers by pouring money into new versions of the Kindle and warehouses that are equipped to send out products faster.

Expedia soared 24 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $40.31. “Gross bookings and revenue growth were again driven by strength in our hotel business with global room-nights growing 24 percent, a nice acceleration from the 19 percent we saw for the fourth quarter,” Dara Khosrowshahi, the company’s chief executive officer, said on a conference call yesterday.

Vivus Inc. jumped 3 percent to $25.15, the highest since 1997. A Vivus pill that is supposed to provide erections within 15 minutes, about half the time or less than Pfizer Inc.’s Viagra, won U.S. regulatory approval.

Starbucks retreated 5.3 percent, the most since Aug. 18, to $57.43. Sales at stores open at least 13 months rose 7 percent globally in the quarter. Analysts projected a gain of 8.2 percent, the average of 17 estimates compiled by Consensus Metrix. Such sales fell 1 percent in Europe, the Middle East and Africa amid “slight decreases” in transactions and average check, Starbucks said.

Customers in Europe “are just cautious, as you would expect, not unlike what they were like in the U.S. three and four years ago,” Chief Financial Officer Troy Alstead said in an interview. Starbucks “is not immune from that,” he said.

Procter & Gamble Co. slumped 3.6 percent to $64.44 for the biggest loss in the Dow. The world’s largest consumer-products company reduced its full-year earnings forecast amid higher costs for raw materials.

Ford Motor Co. dropped 2.3 percent to $11.60. The company seeking a second investment-grade credit rating said first- quarter profit fell 45 percent on a higher tax rate and as overseas losses ate into growing income from North America.

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. plunged 36 percent, the most in the Russell 1000 Index, to $10.30. The maker of clinical software slashed its earnings forecast for 2012. Chief Financial Officer Bill Davis will leave the company effective May 18, and three board directors resigned after disagreeing with a decision to terminate Chairman Phil Pead.

Utilities are poised to become the only one of the S&P 500’s 10 main industry groups whose investors receive dividends on every stock. AES Corp. and NRG Energy Inc., two independent power producers, plan to introduce payouts during the second half. They are the only utilities in the S&P 500 that don’t already provide dividend income.

The industry currently has the fourth-highest percentage of dividend-paying shares. Raw-material producers, makers of food, beverages and other consumer staples, and industrial companies are the top three, in that order.

More than 80 percent of S&P 500 companies pay dividends, said Howard Silverblatt, a New York-based senior index analyst at S&P. The figure is the highest since January 2000. Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. sent the percentage above that threshold two days ago by declaring a quarterly payout of 13 cents a share.

AES plans to distribute $120 million a year, starting in the fourth quarter. That’s equivalent to an annual dividend of about 16 cents a share. The Arlington, Virginia-based company’s most recent payout was in 1994, four years before joining the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

NRG, a component of the index since 2010, plans to begin paying dividends in the third quarter. Investors would receive 36 cents a share annually. The company, based in Princeton, New Jersey, made a similar proposal in 2007 that was scrapped after a bid to refinance debt failed.

 

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

There is no master, there is no instructor,

there is no person to tell you what you must do.

-Krishnamurti, 1895-1986

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Income tax returns are the most imaginative

fiction being written today.

-Herman Wouk, 1915-

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

April 26, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

On this date in,
1986 – Nuclear disaster at the Chernobyl power plant in the Soviet Union
1954 – Polio Vaccine trials begin
1984 – Reagan visits China
1994 – Nelson Mandela wins the presidency in South Africa’s first multi-racial elections
1514 – Copernicus makes his first observations of the planet Saturn
1983 – The Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks 1,200 for the first time

 

And in 1937, the massacre occurred in Guernica, Spain, for which the art world has one of the greatest paintings of all time, Picasso’s Guernica:

Guernica
Artist Pablo Picasso
Year 1937
Type Oil on canvas
Dimensions 349 cm × 776 cm (137.4 in × 305.5 in)
Location Museo Reina Sofia, Madrid

Guernica is a painting by Pablo Picasso. It was created in response to the bombing of Guernica, Basque Country, by German and Italian warplanes at the behest of the Spanish Nationalist forces, on 26 April 1937, during the Spanish Civil War. The Spanish Republican government commissioned Picasso to create a large mural for the Spanish display at the Paris International Exposition at the 1937 World’s Fair in Paris.

Guernica shows the tragedies of war and the suffering it inflicts upon individuals, particularly innocent civilians. This work has gained a monumental status, becoming a perpetual reminder of the tragedies of war, an anti-war symbol, and an embodiment of peace. On completion Guernica was displayed around the world in a brief tour, becoming famous and widely acclaimed. This tour helped bring the Spanish Civil War to the world’s attention.  -from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

photos of the day

April 26, 2012

A man listens to speeches during the inauguration of the sculpture ‘Agony of Fire’ by Nextor Basterrextea, in Guernica. Guernica is commemorating the seventy fifth anniversary of the aerial bombing by planes from the German Condor Legion, in aid of the nationalist military rebellion lead by General Francisco Franco.

Vincent West/Reuters

A woman lights candles to honor the memory of the victims of the Chernobyl disaster in Kiev, Ukraine. Ukraine marked the 26th anniversary since the Chernobyl power station exploded.

Sergei Chuzavkov/AP

 

And in tribute to Poetry in a Pocket Day, here is a poem I found in The New Yorker magazine this week that I liked:

 

RAIN AT THE BEACH

 

This light makes me think of a house underwater.

Because the ocean has corners

 

I cannot stop looking for you.

Careful, the red jellyfish

 

washed up onshore

sting after they’re dead. My mother said

 

a soul mate is problematic. I imagine a mother and daughter

 

with dripping wet hair

running down the beach

 

holding hands.  Left out in the rain,

a painting of a beach house

 

with a boat parked inside

is still a painting of a house.

 

Whoever said it’s difficult for artists

to be original

 

probably wasn’t an artist.

My new vegetarian lover

 

ate snails

off the house as a kid.

 

-Jennifer Chapis

 

Market Closes for April 26, 2012:

North American Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13148.69 +57.97 

 

+0.44% 

 

S&P 500 1392.76 +2.07 

 

+0.15% 

 

NASDAQ 3034.63 +5.00 

 

+0.17% 

 

TSX 12112.23 +1.17 

 

+0.01% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9561.83 +0.82 

 

+0.01% 

 

HANG 

SENG

20809.71 +163.42 

 

+0.79% 

 

SENSEX 17130.67 -20.62 

 

-0.12% 

 

FTSE 100 5748.72 +29.83 

 

+0.52% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.055 2.105
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.620 2.646
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9471 1.9840
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.1224 3.1476

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.01443 1.01665
US  

$

0.98578 0.98362
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.30107 0.76860
US 

$

1.31984 0.75767

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1658.28 1643.60
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 104.65 104.08
BRENT 


120.15

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

April 26 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose for a second day as energy shares climbed with fuel prices, outweighing declines by material producers driven by higher-than-forecast U.S. jobless claims and earnings that missed estimates.

Encana Corp. rose 5.9 percent, adding to its 4 percent gain yesterday, when it reported a profit that beat analyst estimates. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the country’s third- largest energy company, advanced 0.8 percent to C$32.62.

Goldcorp Inc., the world’s second-biggest bullion producer, and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the biggest fertilizer company, dropped 6 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, after reporting quarterly profit that trailed analyst forecasts.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index increased 34.79 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,145.85 in Toronto.

“Oil is up and natural gas had an intraday spike,” Anil Tahiliani, a money manager at McLean & Partners in Calgary, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about C$1 billion ($1 billion). “The other news today wasn’t as bad as people thought initially.”

The S&P/TSX had its first weekly gain in almost two months in the five days ending April 20, snapping its longest losing streak since 2008. Canadian stocks rallied after the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Canada said economic growth would be faster than previously forecast. The index had its worst decline in a week on April 23, after manufacturing shrank in Europe and China.

Energy producers in the S&P/TSX advanced after crude oil for June delivery rose to a three-week high and gas advanced, before erasing gains after the U.S. Energy Department reported inventories climbed more than forecast last week.

Encana rose 5.9 percent to C$19.44. Canadian Natural Resources advanced 0.8 percent to C$32.62. Talisman Energy Inc., an oil and gas producer with operations in North America, the North Sea and Indonesia, rose 2.3 percent to C$13.03.

Materials stocks in the S&P/TSX declined for the fourth time in five days after the earnings reports from Goldcorp and Potash.

Goldcorp dropped 6 percent to C$38.08 after reporting first-quarter profit excluding some items of 50 cents a share, less than the 53-cent average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company said gold output dropped 39 percent at Red Lake in Ontario, its top producer, because of difficult ground conditions and lower-than-expected grades.

Potash Corp. lost 3.2 percent to C$42.25 as first-quarter net income dropped to 56 cents a share, compared with the 64- cent average of 26 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Profit in 2012 will be $3.20 to $3.60 a share, the company said in a statement, down from its January projection of $3.40 to $4.

Some gold stocks increased as the metal rose the most in two weeks on speculation that the Federal Reserve may increase stimulus measures to bolster the U.S. economy after the release of the jobless numbers.

Eldorado Gold Corp., a Vancouver-based mining company, climbed 1.5 percent to C$13.99. Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., a gold producer that operates in Canada, Mexico and Finland, rose 4 percent to C$35.26.

US

By Rita Nazareth

April 26 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks gained, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its biggest three-day advance since February, after better-than-estimated housing data overshadowed disappointing earnings at United Parcel Service Inc.

A measure of homebuilders in S&P indexes rose 4.8 percent as PulteGroup Inc. rallied 10 percent amid a narrower loss.

Chevron Corp. advanced 2.3 percent as the energy company lifted its dividend. Amazon.com Inc., the largest Internet retailer, surged 12 percent at 4:57 p.m. New York time as revenue beat estimates. UPS, the biggest package-delivery company that is considered a proxy for the economy, retreated 1.8 percent.

The S&P 500 increased 0.7 percent to 1,399.98 at 4 p.m. New York time. It has advanced 2.4 percent in three days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 113.90 points, or 0.9 percent, to 13,204.62 today. About 6.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, almost in line with the three-month average.

“Things are better,” said Michelle Gibley, director of international research at San Francisco-based Charles Schwab Corp. Her firm has $1.83 trillion in client assets. “We did get several months of better-than-expected economic data. The earnings season has been pretty good.”

Equities rose as data showed that signed contracts to buy U.S. homes increased more than forecast in March. The Federal Reserve yesterday upgraded its estimates for growth and unemployment this year. Policy makers are holding off on additional steps to boost the economy amid signs that the more than two-year expansion is gaining strength. Yet earlier today, data signaled a cooling labor market as more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits.

Investors also watched earnings data as profits have topped forecasts at 75 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting since April 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Per-share profits are forecast to have grown 3.3 percent in the first- quarter, Bloomberg data show. That’s up from the 0.8 percent growth projection before the earnings season started.

“The most recent concern of the bears was that earnings this quarter were going to disappoint and take the market lower,” Birinyi Associates Inc., the Westport, Connecticut- based firm founded by Laszlo Birinyi, said in a note to clients.

“That this was a concern last quarter, as well, was conveniently forgotten.”

Today’s gain extended this year’s advance in the S&P 500 to 11 percent and the benchmark gauge for American equities trimmed its monthly decline to 0.6 percent. If the S&P 500 erases its April drop, it will cap the fifth straight month of gains, the longest winning streak since 2009. Financials and energy shares had the biggest losses in April, while telephone companies rose.

All 11 stocks in a measure of homebuilders in S&P indexes gained. PulteGroup jumped 10 percent to $9.58. The largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, which has reported a loss in six of the last seven quarters, has been focused on cutting costs after the acquisition of Centex Corp. in August 2009.

Chevron rose 2.3 percent to $106.22. The second-largest U.S. energy company boosted its quarterly dividend to 90 cents a share from 81 cents.

More S&P 500 companies are paying dividends than at any time since 2000 after Apple Inc., Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. and six other corporations initiated payouts this year. The number has risen to 401, according to Howard Silverblatt, S&P’s senior index analyst. His estimate for total payouts this year, which Silverblatt said is under review, is a record $279 billion.

Companies are increasing shareholder returns in the form of dividends and buybacks after the 2008 financial crisis led them to hoard cash to a record $1 trillion by the end of 2011. The rise in payouts coincides with a 13th quarter of better-than- estimated earnings.

“Given underlying fundamentals, low payouts and cash reserves, 2012 should set a record high for cash dividend payments,” Silverblatt wrote in an e-mail today.

Amazon surged 12 percent to $220 after the close of regular trading. Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos is looking to add customers by pouring money into new versions of the Kindle and warehouses that are equipped to send out products faster. The Kindle Fire tablet is the best-selling item on Amazon’s site, the company said.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. rallied 2.8 percent, the most in the Dow, to $58.95. The world’s largest retailer rebounded after an

8.2 percent slump in three days, which was triggered by allegations that executives in Mexico paid more than $24 million in bribes to speed expansion.

Citrix Systems Inc. surged 12 percent to $86.76. The software maker forecast earnings in 2012 will be at least $2.75 a share, topping the average analyst estimate of $2.72.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average slid 1.1 percent. UPS dropped 1.8 percent to $78.25. Package volume gains at UPS, an economic bellwether because it carries goods from mobile devices to pharmaceuticals, have slowed in recent quarters as Asian economic growth cools. Average revenue per piece stagnated as the company struggles to raise rates.

FedEx Corp., which operates the world’s biggest cargo airline, last month projected a profit range for this quarter whose low end trailed analysts’ estimates as the company pared its global growth forecast.

Starbucks Corp. slumped 4.5 percent to $57.90 after the market close. The world’s largest coffee-shop chain reported second-quarter same-store sales that trailed analysts’ estimates amid weaker demand in Europe.

Exxon Mobil Corp. declined 0.9 percent to $86.07. The world’s largest energy company by market value said net income fell 11 percent as its biggest first-quarter production decline since 2008 wiped out most of the benefit of record oil prices.

Dow Chemical Co. slumped 3.4 percent to $34.85 after rising costs for oil-based raw materials in Europe and Asia cut earnings in plastics.

Akamai Technologies Inc. plunged 14 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $33.15 after forecasting profit that missed estimates. The company that helps businesses deliver data at faster speeds over the Internet said Chief Executive Officer Paul Sagan will leave by the end of 2013. Akamai’s sales more than quadrupled during his leadership.

Aetna Inc. plunged 8.2 percent to $45.31. The third-biggest health insurer by sales reported first-quarter profit that missed analyst estimates.

The S&P 500 may lose as much as 10 percent from current levels given the market’s tendency to give back some gains after a “strong” rally, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Mary Ann Bartels.

“We’re in a correction,” Bartels, the New York-based head of technical and market analysis at Bank of America, said in a phone interview yesterday. “We’re starting to get sell signals on our intermediate indicators.”

Industries such as consumer staples, telecommunications and utilities have fallen too much as investors favor more “defensive” industries, Bartels said. Stocks driven by the economy, including materials, energy and industrial shares, have fallen out of favor, pointing to a potential “deeper pullback” for the U.S. equity market, she said.

“The market is still staying away from commodity-sensitive cyclicals,” Bartels said. “As long as that continues, that means the market is more likely to go down.”

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

The Upanishad tells us:  Know the soul that is your own.

In other words:  Realize the grand unique principle of the whole that is in all men.

-Rabindranath Tagore, 1861-1901

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Life is very nice, but it has no shape.  It is the purpose of art

to give it shape.
-Jean Anouilh, 1910-1987

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

hjkj

Market Closes for April 26, 2012:

North American Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

13148.69 +57.97
+0.44%

 

S&P 500 1392.76 +2.07

 

+0.15%

 

NASDAQ 3034.63 +5.00
+0.17%

 

TSX 12112.23 +1.17
+0.01%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9561.83 +0.82
+0.01%

 

HANG

SENG

20809.71 +163.42
+0.79%
 
SENSEX 17130.67 -20.62
-0.12%

 

FTSE 100 5748.72 +29.83
+0.52%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

2.055 2.105
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.620 2.646
U.S.

10 Year Bond

1.9471 1.9840
U.S.

30 Year Bond

3.1224 3.1476

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.01443 1.01665
US

$

0.98578 0.98362
 
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse

Canadian

$

1.30107 0.76860
US

$

1.31984 0.75767

Commodities

Gold Close Previous  
London Gold

Fix

1658.28 1643.60  
 
Oil Close Previous

 

 
WTI Crude Future 104.65 104.08

 

BRENT

120.15      

 

April 25, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

 

Today in,

1901 – the first license plates were issued.

1915 – The Battle of Gallipoli.

1917 – Ella Fitzgerald was born.

 

Today is Anzac Day in Australia & New Zealand.

 

I was listening to the Seattle radio station, NPR, while driving to work this morning and the announcer reminded listeners that tomorrow is Poem in Your Pocket Day.  April is national  poetry month in the US and April 26th is Poem in Your Pocket Day.   It started in New York City 10 years ago and became a national celebration of poetry in 2009.

The idea is to select a poem you love then carry it with you to share with co-workers, family, and friends.  Poems from pockets will be unfolded throughout the day with events in parks, libraries, schools, workplaces, and bookstores.  Isn’t that a wonderful idea?

 

photos of the day

April 25, 2012

A young boy stands among gravestones during the wreath-laying ceremonies at the Australian National Memorial in Villers-Bretonneux, northern France, on Anzac Day. The ceremony marks the 94th anniversary of the recapture of the village of Villers-Bretonneux on April 25, 1918.

Michel Spingler/AP

A pack of riders cycle during the first stage of the Tour de Romandie cycling race near Cossonay, Switzerland.

Denis Balibouse/Reuters

Market Closes for April 25, 2012:

North American Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

13090.72 +89.16 

 

+0.69% 

 

S&P 500 1390.69 +18.72 

 

+1.36% 

 

NASDAQ 3029.63 +68.03 

 

+2.3% 

 

TSX 12111.06 +130.96 

 

+1.09% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9561.01 +92.27 

 

+0.98% 

 

HANG 

SENG

20646.29 -30.87 

 

-0.15% 

 

SENSEX 17151.29 -56.00 

 

-0.33% 

 

FTSE 100 5718.89 +9.40 

 

+0.16% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.105 2.060
CND.  

30 Year Bond

2.646 2.614
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9840 1.9682
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.1476 3.1232

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.01665 1.01299
US  

$

0.98362 0.98717
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.30025 0.76908
US 

$

1.32190 0.75649

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold Fix 1643.60 1641.00
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 104.08 103.50

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

April 25 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose for the first time in four days as natural gas prices increased and U.S. companies reported better-than-forecast earnings.

Encana Corp., the country’s biggest natural gas producer by volume, added 4 percent. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. rose 3.9 percent after fertilizer producer Mosaic Co. reported an increase in demand. Agrium Inc., a fertilizer producer and farm retailer, gained 3.2 percent. Rogers Communications Inc., Canada’s biggest wireless provider, fell 4.4 percent after reporting earnings that missed analysts’ estimates.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index increased 130.96 points, or 1.1 percent, to 12,111.06 in Toronto, its biggest gain in almost two weeks.

“What you’re generally seeing is a bit of a bounceback after a few days of selling,” Brian Huen, a managing partner at Red Sky Capital Management Ltd. in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about C$55 million ($55 million).

“Earnings season seems to be in decent shape. The majority of companies are coming in better than expected, which is certainly helping sentiment today.”

Of companies in the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX, 76 percent that have reported earnings since April 10 have beaten analyst forecasts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Apple Inc. said second-quarter profit was $12.30 a share, exceeding predictions by 23 percent, and Caterpillar Inc. beat estimates by 11 percent.

The S&P/TSX had its first weekly gain in almost two months in the five days ending April 20, snapping its longest losing streak since 2008. Canadian stocks rallied after the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Canada said economic growth would be faster than previously forecast. The index had its worst decline in a week on April 23, after manufacturing shrank in Europe and China.

Canadian shares extended gains today after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he’s prepared to do more to stimulate growth. Fed policy makers repeated the view that borrowing costs are likely to remain “exceptionally low” at least through 2014.

Energy companies increased as natural gas futures in New York rose for the third time in four days on speculation that decade-low prices will prompt production cuts and spur higher demand from power plants.

Encana advanced 4 percent to C$18.36. Niko Resources Ltd., which produces oil and gas in South Asia, rose 7.1 percent to C$41.39. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the country’s third- largest energy company, climbed 3.4 percent to C$32.37.

Materials stocks in the S&P/TSX rose, driven by potash shares. Mosaic Co., the largest North American phosphate- fertilizer supplier, said sales volumes in its fiscal quarter will be at the upper end of an earlier forecast because of a “rapid acceleration in demand.”

Potash Corp. rose 3.9 percent to C$43.65. Agrium gained 3.2 percent to C$86.85.

Rogers decreased 4.4 percent to C$36.81, its largest drop since October 2010. The company reported first-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates, hurt by subsidies it offers on Apple’s iPhone.

BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. rose 2.6 percent to C$13.42 after Apple reported a 94 percent surge in profit and 59 percent jump in revenue in the quarter.

US

By Rita Nazareth

April 25 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks advanced, giving the

Nasdaq-100 Index its biggest gain this year, as Apple Inc.’s earnings almost doubled and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he’s prepared to do more to stimulate growth.

Apple, the most valuable company, surged 8.9 percent for the biggest gain since November 2008. Boeing Co. added 5.3 percent as earnings beat estimates after the company delivered more commercial jets while pushing production to record levels.

Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, slumped 4.6 percent as revenue missed projections.

The Nasdaq-100 Index jumped 2.7 percent to 2,709.62 at 4 p.m. New York time. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1.4 percent to 1,390.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 89.16 points, or 0.7 percent, to 13,090.72. Apple is not a member of the 30-stock gauge. About 6.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, almost in line with the three-month average.

“It’s encouraging,” James Swanson, who oversees about $250 billion as chief investment strategist at Boston-based MFS Investment Management, said in a telephone interview. “The earnings season shows that companies can have good profitability in a low growth environment. As long as these earnings hold up, I’d say that’s a bright sign for the market.”

The S&P 500 has risen 11 percent in 2012 on better-than- estimated economic and corporate data. U.S. companies are beating earnings estimates at the highest rate in two years as economic growth at home helps counter a drag from Europe.

Profits have topped forecasts at 80 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting since April 10.

Earnings rose 11 percent on average, exceeding the 0.6 percent increase analysts projected when reporting began, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 delivered better-than-forecast results, with financial, telephone and technology companies leading with a positive rate of more than 10 percent, the data showed.

Stocks also rallied as policy makers said they expect growth to gradually accelerate, while refraining from new actions to lower borrowing costs. Central bankers today upgraded their forecasts for economic growth and unemployment while repeating their view that borrowing costs are likely to remain “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014.

“The Fed is providing an insurance policy to the economy,” said Ann Miletti, senior portfolio manager for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. Her firm manages $213 billion. “There’s a sense that things are improving, yet there’s some instability. The Fed is saying that it will be there to help keep things going. Earnings have been strong. The market likes it.”

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 rallied today as gains were led by technology, which comprises 20 percent of the index. The group jumped 3.2 percent, the biggest advance since November.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to the economy increased 1.6 percent. The Russell 2000 Index of small companies rallied 1.8 percent to 812.12.

Apple surged 8.9 percent to $610. Demand from Chinese consumers helped Apple sell a higher-than-predicted 35.1 million iPhones last quarter and made the world’s most populous country responsible for 20 percent of sales. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook said there will be “a lot more opportunity” in China as he introduces the iPad and expands operations there.

Before today, the company’s shares had tumbled $75.95 since a record close of $636.23 on April 9 amid reports that indicated a possible shortage in key components for Apple’s mobile devices and showed a quarter-over-quarter decline in iPhone sales at wireless carriers.

“This report should erase any doubt in investors’ minds that this company can’t continue to deliver,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank in Chicago, which oversees about $60 billion, including Apple shares.

Boeing gained 5.3 percent to $77.08. It shipped 137 jetliners last quarter, compared with 131 deliveries by rival Airbus SAS. Boeing is boosting output by more than 60 percent in the four years through 2014 to pare a record order backlog from customers seeking more fuel-efficient jets.

Aflac Inc. jumped 7.8 percent to $45.26. The world’s biggest seller of supplemental health insurance said first- quarter profit doubled as investment results improved.

Coca-Cola Co. rose 1.1 percent to $74.93 after voting to recommend a 2-for-1 stock split to keep the shares available to smaller investors. Chairman Muhtar Kent, who pushed for the company’s 11th stock split, may be philosophically at odds with his biggest investor, Warren Buffett.

Buffett, who controls a Coca-Cola stake of almost $15 billion, has resisted splitting Class A shares of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Splits, he said in a 1984 letter, may encourage short-term investment strategies that enrich brokers at the expense of the business.

“I don’t know what he would say about this one,” said Howard Buffett, the investor’s son and a director at Atlanta- based Coca-Cola. Howard Buffett, who spoke today on the sidelines of the soft-drink maker’s annual meeting, said he voted for the 2-for-1 split.

Exxon Mobil Corp. rose 0.6 percent to $86.85, after swinging between gains and losses today. The energy company raised its quarterly dividend to 57 cents a share from 47 cents a share, according to an e-mailed statement.

Caterpillar slumped 4.6 percent, the most in the Dow, to $103.44. The company says sales in developing nations this year will be lower than anticipated, a reversal after 2011 growth in Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region outpaced North America, helping to drive record revenue and profit.

The company is the latest manufacturer to report sales in China have been curbed. United Technologies Corp. yesterday posted a drop in Chinese orders while 3M Co. forecast below- rend growth in the country.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein said he’s more optimistic about markets than some economists and investors.

“I tend to be a little more positive than what I’m hearing from other people,” Blankfein, 57, told Bloomberg Television today in an interview at the investment bank’s New York headquarters. “One of the big risks that people have to contemplate is that things go right.”

U.S. stocks look reasonably priced when the value of companies is measured against the size of the country’s economy, said David R. Kotok, Cumberland Advisors Inc.’s chairman and chief investment officer. He made a comparison between the total market capitalization of companies in the S&P 500 and nominal gross domestic product, which isn’t adjusted for inflation.

Yesterday’s ratio was 83 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge peaked at 101 percent in May 2007, near the end of a five-year bull market, and 131 percent in August 2000, when the Internet bubble of the 1990s had begun to burst. The earlier readings are circled in the chart.

“We are still two years away from a new high” for the S&P 500, Kotok wrote in the report. The prediction stems from the outlook for corporate profits and labor costs along with the index’s ratio to GDP, he wrote.

The S&P 500 may climb in 2014 to 1,600, which would lift the total market value of its companies to 90 percent of GDP, according to Kotok. His estimate for the index exceeds the record close of 1,565.15 on Oct. 9, 2007.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Man is setting out to satisfy needs that mean more to him

than simply nourishment and clothing.

He is embarking on a rediscovery of himself.

The history of man is that of his voyage toward the unknown,

in the search for the realization of his immortal Self, of his soul.

-Rabindranath Tagore, 1861-1901

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Better than a thousand hollow words,

is one word that brings peace.

-Buddha, 563 BC-483 BC

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

April 24, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

On this day in:

1961 – President Kennedy takes sole responsibility for the failed Bay of Pigs Invasion of Cuba

1968 – Leftist Students take over Columbia University in protest over the Vietnam War
1981 – The IBM Personal Computer is introduced
1953 – Winston Churchill is knighted by Queen Elizabeth
1948 – The Berlin Airlift begins to relieve the surrounded city

Nobody sees a flower – really – it is so small it takes time – we haven’t time – and to see takes time, like to have a friend takes time.  ~Georgia O’Keeffe

photos of the day

April 24, 2012

Antique busts reflect in a glass case during the reopening of the collection of antiques at the Friedrich Schiller University in Jena, central Germany. More than 2,000 original sculptures and plaster casts are seen in the new showrooms.

Jens Meyer/AP

Nitoru, a nine-month-old toy poodle, rides a radio control toy car operated by its owner in Tokyo during lunch time.

Itsuo Inouye/AP

Market Closes for April 24, 2012:

North American Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

13001.56 +74.39
+0.58%

 

S&P 500 1371.97 +5.03

 

+0.37%

 

NASDAQ 2961.60 -8.85
-0.30%

 

TSX 11977.87 -11.08
-0.09%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9468.04 -74.13
-0.78%

 

HANG

SENG

20677.16 +52.77

+0.26%

 
SENSEX 17207.29 +110.61
+0.65%

 

FTSE 100 5665.57 -106.58
-1.85%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

2.060 2.041
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.614 2.595
U.S.

10 Year Bond

1.9682 1.9349
U.S.

30 Year Bond

3.1232 3.0846

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.01299 1.00918
US

$

0.98717 0.99091
 
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse

Canadian

$

1.30260 0.76770
US

$

1.31947 0.75788

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1641.00 1638.50
Oil Close Previous

 

WTI Crude Future 103.50 103.07

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

April 24 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell for a third day after reports that U.S. home purchases declined in March and Canadian retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in February.

Enbridge Inc., Canada’s largest pipeline company, decreased

1.1 percent after saying it will send divers to determine whether one of its two natural-gas pipelines 99 miles off the Louisiana coast is leaking. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.

dropped 0.9 percent, leading material producers lower. Property- services company FirstService Corp. plunged 7.5 percent after missing analyst first-quarter earnings estimates. Celestica Inc.

increased 5.9 percent after beating analyst projections.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index decreased 8.85 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,980.10 in Toronto.

“We need some strength out of China to get the materials space going,” Greg Taylor, a money manager at Aurion Capital Management in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about C$5.5 billion ($5.6 billion). “At the end of the day, the Canadian market is just a derivative play on China.”

The S&P/TSX had its first weekly gain in almost two months in the five days ending April 20, snapping its longest losing streak since 2008. Canadian stocks rallied after the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Canada said economic growth would be faster than previously forecast. The index had its worst decline in a week on April 23, after manufacturing shrank in Europe and China.

U.S. houses sold at a 328,000 annual rate, down from an upwardly revised 353,000 pace in February that was the highest in two years, according to Commerce Department data issued today in Washington. Canadian retail sales decreased 0.2 percent to

C$38.9 billion, according to Ottawa-based Statistics Canada, which also reduced its January sales-growth estimate to 0.2 percent from 0.5 percent.

Energy companies declined, driven by Enbridge’s investigation of the potential pipeline leak. Enbridge decreased

1.1 percent to C$39.07. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the country’s third-largest energy company, fell 0.6 percent to C$31.30.

Potash Corp., the world’s largest fertilizer producer by market value, fell 0.9 percent to C$42.03. Agrium Inc., a fertilizer producer and farm retailer, declined 1.1 percent to C$84.14.

FirstService plunged 7.5 percent to C$28.16 after posting a first-quarter loss of 10 Canadian cents a share. The average analyst estimate was for a profit of 18 Canadian cents.

Industrial stocks in the S&P/TSX increased, driven by analyst upgrades for Canadian National Railway Co, which climbed

2.3 percent to C$81.24. The company was raised to buy from hold at Canaccord Financial Inc., which projects 2012 earnings per share growth of 14 percent, higher than that company forecast of

10 percent. Raymond James Financial Inc., National Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal also increased their ratings.

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd., the country’s second-largest railroad, gained 2.1 percent to C$75.78. Calgary-based carrier WestJet Airlines Ltd. added 1.9 percent to C$14.14.

Celestica Inc., which makes electronics for companies including Research In Motion Ltd., increased 5.9 percent to

C$8.85 after reporting first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 25 Canadian cents, beating the average analyst estimate of 22 Canadian cents.

US

By Rita Nazareth

April 24 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks advanced, following yesterday’s decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid better-than-estimated earnings at companies from AT&T Inc. to 3M Co. and as data indicated the housing market is stabilizing.

AT&T, the largest U.S. telephone company, and 3M, the maker of Post-it Notes, rose at least 1.5 percent. International Business Machines Corp. added 0.7 percent after the company boosted its buyback plan by $7 billion and raised its dividend.

Juniper Networks Inc. increased 7.2 percent as revenue beat analysts’ projections. Apple Inc. jumped 7.5 percent at 5 p.m.

New York time as profit almost doubled last quarter.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent to 1,371.97 at 4 p.m. New York time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 74.39 points, or

0.6 percent, to 13,001.56. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.3 percent to 2,961.60. About 6.2 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, or 7.8 percent below the three-month average.

“Stocks have room to move higher,” said David Kelly, who helps oversee about $394 billion as chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds in New York. “Earnings are healthy. The bar has been lowered so far that you can just walk over it. Housing is on the mend. A sign of a market top is when people are exuberant. There’s no exuberance as witnessed yesterday.”

Equities rebounded from yesterday’s slump, extending this year’s rally in the S&P 500 to 9.1 percent. Earnings per share beat forecasts at 82 percent of S&P 500 companies that reported results since April 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Per-share profits grew 3.3 percent in the first-quarter, Bloomberg data show. That’s up from the 0.8 percent growth projection before the earnings season started.

Economic optimism helped fuel gains today as new home sales data indicated that cheaper borrowing costs are helping stabilize the real estate market. Federal Open Market Committee members began a two-day meeting today and tomorrow will probably repeat their plan to keep the benchmark interest rate low at least through late 2014, economists say.

A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes jumped 2.4 percent.

D.R. Horton Inc., the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, rose

3.2 percent to $15.54. KB Home added 4.5 percent to $7.91.

Phone shares had the biggest gain among 10 S&P 500 groups, rallying 2.8 percent. AT&T added 3.6 percent to $31.72. Earnings beat estimates on lower smartphone upgrade costs and an increase in wireless data sales related to Apple’s iPad.

3M increased 1.6 percent to $88.49. The U.S. market drove sales at the industrial and transportation unit, the largest division at the St. Paul, Minnesota-based company.

IBM gained 0.7 percent to $200. The quarterly payout will rise 10 cents to 85 cents a share. IBM had $5.7 billion remaining from a previous buyback plan, bringing the total available for repurchases to $12.7 billion.

Technology companies are approaching consumer staples as the largest dividend payers, according data compiled by Howard Silverblatt, S&P’s New York-based senior index analyst. The technology group contributes about 14 percent of the S&P 500’s dividends, up from 5.1 percent in 2004. Consumer staples companies account for almost 15 percent.

Apple gained 7.5 percent to $602.25 after the close of regular trading. Net income in the fiscal second quarter climbed to $11.6 billion, or $12.30 a share, as revenue increased 59 percent to $39.2 billion. Analysts had predicted profit of

$10.02 a share on revenue of $36.9 billion.

Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook is increasingly relying on regions outside the U.S. for sales growth. That helped make up for sales declines from the previous quarter at the top U.S.

mobile-phone carriers, Verizon Wireless and AT&T. It also quelled speculation that Apple’s growth pace may slacken.

“China has been a very fast-growing region for them,”

said Abhey Lamba, an analyst at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. “There’s more disposable income, strong demand for high-end products and their penetration has been very low in that market. They have been highlighting that region as one of their focus areas.”

The company’s shares slumped 2 percent to $560.28 today, dropping for a fifth straight day. Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. won a partial U.S. International Trade Commission judge’s ruling in its bid to block imports of Apple’s devices including the iPhone and iPad tablet computer.

Juniper Networks climbed 7.2 percent to $21.63. Results suggest that demand from cable companies and other Internet service providers for Juniper’s switches and routers may be improving, said Brian Marshall, an analyst at ISI Group.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. slumped 3 percent to $57.77. The shares dropped 7.5 percent in two days, the most since January 2009. The retailer is investigating allegations that executives in Mexico paid more than $24 million in bribes to speed expansion there. The company also is the subject of a U.S.

Justice Department criminal investigation, a person familiar with the probe said yesterday.

Big Lots Inc. plunged 24 percent, the biggest decline in the S&P 500, to $34.71. The discontinued-merchandise retailer with more than 1,400 U.S. stores reduced its fiscal first- quarter sales forecast amid lower demand for electronics.

Netflix Inc. tumbled 14 percent to $87.68. The world’s largest video-subscription service projected a slowdown in growth of U.S. streaming customers.

Coach Inc. lost 4.3 percent to $71.87. The largest U.S.

luxury handbag maker reported fiscal third-quarter sales that beat analysts’ estimates by the smallest margin in 11 quarters.

Companies’ failure to boost forecasts for future profits and sales will weigh on the S&P 500 as investors project slower growth, according to Barclays Plc’s Barry Knapp.

Knapp predicts the S&P 500 will end the year at 1,330, 4 percent below the average forecast of 11 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg as of April 16. He forecasts combined profit by S&P

500 companies will be $103 a share this year. Analysts that cover companies in the index estimate earnings of $104.86 in

2012 and $118.06 in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Guidance is not moving higher and as a result, even where companies are beating estimates, the stocks still aren’t going up,” Knapp, the New York-based head of equity strategy at Barclays, said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “If the guidance doesn’t move up, if the revenue’s missed, really what you’re discounting in terms of the growth outlook is not all that great.”

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

To know our soul apart from our ego

is the first step toward accomplishing the supreme deliverance.

It is necessary that we know with absolute certainty that in essence we are spirit.

And we can only arrive at this knowledge if we render ourselves masters of our ego,

if we rise above all pride, all appetite, all fear, by knowing that material losses and the

death of the body can never take away the truth and the greatness of our soul.

-Rabindranath Tagore, 1861-1901

As ever,

 

Carolann

A garden is always a series of losses set against

a few triumphs, like life itself.

-May Sarton, 1912-1995

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

 

April 23, 2012 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

On this day:

 

William Shakespeare was born  on this day in 1564and he died on this day in 1616.

1896 – Motion pictures premiere in New York City.

1950 –  Chiang Kai-shek evacuates Hainan, leaving Mainland China to Mao Zedong and the Communists.

1975 – President Ford says that Vietnam War is over for America.

 

Question of the day:  What personal prisons have you built out of fears?

 

Ever since happiness heard your name, it has been running through the streets trying to find you.  ~ Hafiz of Persia


photos of the day

April 23, 2012


People take part in a protest outside the proposed location the US clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch propose to open a children’s store on Savile Row, the traditional men’s bespoke tailoring street, in the Mayfair district of London. The protest was organized by The Chap magazine, a publication for English gentlemen whose manifesto includes always wearing tweed and cultivating interesting moustaches.

Matt Dunham/AP

The tattooed signature on the neck of Natalia Lobo which Paul McCartney signed during his stadium concert in Recife, Brazil. After he signed the 21-year-old’s neck she immediately headed to a tattoo parlor to immortalize the autograph.

MJ Kim/MPL Communications/AP

Market Closes for April 23, 2012:

North American Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

12927.17 -102.09 

 

-0.78% 

 

S&P 500 1366.94 -11.59 

 

-0.84% 

 

NASDAQ 2970.45 -30.00 

 

-1.00% 

 

TSX 11988.95 -158.33 

 

-1.30% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 9542.17 -19.19 

 

-0.20% 

 

HANG 

SENG

20624.39 -386.25 

 

-1.84%

 

SENSEX 17096.68 -277.16 

 

-1.60% 

 

FTSE 100 5665.57 -106.58 

 

-1.85% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.041 2.047
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

2.595 2.612
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

1.9349 1.9559
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.0846 3.1168

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 1.00918 1.00773
US  

$

0.99091 0.99232
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.30346 0.76719
US 

$

1.31543 0.76021

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1638.50 1642.10
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 103.07 103.05

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Joseph Ciolli

April 23 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell the most in over a week as materials and energy shares declined after manufacturing shrank in the euro-area and China and the French election heightened concern over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest producer of the metal, dropped 1.7 percent. First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Canada’s second-largest publicly traded copper producer, declined 5.3 percent. MEG Energy Corp., a Calgary-based oil- sands developer, fell 2.1 percent. Baja Mining Corp., which is building the Boleo copper and cobalt mine in Mexico, plummeted 37 percent after saying the project’s cost may be 22 percent higher than forecast.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index decreased 158.33 points, or 1.3 percent, to 11,988.95 in Toronto, its biggest drop since April 13.

“It’s the European numbers, plus another data point confirming that China is slowing,” Jennifer Radman, a money manager at Caldwell Investment Management Ltd. in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about C$1 billion ($1 billion). “It’s a very widespread sell-off. Risk is coming out of the market due to those factors.”

The S&P/TSX had its first weekly gain in almost two months in the five days ending April 20, snapping its longest losing streak since 2008. Canadian stocks rallied after the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Canada said economic growth would be faster than previously forecast.

Materials companies fell, driven by metals producers.

Copper headed for its biggest loss in more than a week in New York on concern that demand will slow as manufacturing contracts in China, the world’s biggest copper user. The metal also fell on concern that the outcome of French and Dutch elections will disrupt efforts to stem the region’s debt crisis.

Teck Resources Ltd., Canada’s biggest base-metal producer, decreased 3.7 percent to C$35.33.

First Quantum declined 5.3 percent to C$19.83 after being lowered to sector performer from sector outperformer at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, which cited lowered gold and nickel price forecasts for 2012 and 2013. The rating means that the stock is expected to perform in line with its sector during the next 12 to 18 months.

Baja Mining plunged 37 percent, the biggest drop in more than nine years, to 57 Canadian cents. The Boleo project may cost an additional C$246 million after exhausting contingency and cost-overrun facilities, the Vancouver-based company said today in a statement.

Gold declined to a two-week low as a stronger U.S. dollar curbed demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Silver slumped to a three-month low.

Barrick Gold dropped 1.7 percent to C$39.29. Goldcorp Inc., the world’s second-biggest bullion miner, fell 3.4 percent to C$39.65. Silver Wheaton Corp., the country’s third-biggest precious-metals company by market value, decreased 3.6 percent to C$28.12.

Energy stocks in the S&P/TSX fell as oil declined the most in two weeks after preliminary reading of a purchasing managers’ index in China fanned concern that fuel consumption will diminish.

MEG Energy Corp. declined 2.1 percent to C$37.65. Cenovus Energy Inc., Canada’s fifth-largest energy company, dropped 1.2 percent to C$34.20.

Financial shares in the benchmark gauge also decreased for a second day. Toronto-Dominion Bank, the country’s second- largest lender, fell 1.4 percent to C$82.81.

US

By Rita Nazareth

April 23 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks joined a global selloff as political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands intensified concern about Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

Bank of America Corp. fell 2.2 percent, following a drop in European lenders, as Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte offered to quit after lawmakers split over austerity and French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost the first round of his re-election bid.

Monsanto Co. and U.S. Steel Corp. slid at least 1.8 percent as European and Chinese manufacturing shrank. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. retreated 4.7 percent amid a bribery probe in Mexico.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.8 percent to 1,366.94 at 4 p.m. New York time, near its highest level of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 102.09 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,927.17. The Russell 2000 Index retreated 1.5 percent to 791.85. About 6.6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, or 2.5 percent below the three-month average.

“Markets are realizing that messy European national politics could aggravate already complex economic and financial conditions,” Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an e-mail today. His company is manager of the world’s largest bond fund.

Equities from Hong Kong to Paris and Sao Paulo slumped as the Dutch prime minister ran out of room to maneuver after budget talks with Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party collapsed, triggering doubts about his country’s ability to retain its AAA credit rating. French President Sarkozy and challenger Francois Hollande will be in a second round of elections, vying to lead a country split over measures to end a debt crisis.

Economic concern grew as euro-area manufacturing fell and data indicated China’s production will contract for a sixth month. Today’s drop trimmed this year’s gain in the S&P 500 to 8.7 percent, which had been driven by better-than-estimated economic and corporate data. Earnings per share have topped forecasts at 84 percent of S&P 500 companies that reported results since April 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The financial markets are correcting, but they will do better later in the year,” said Byron Wien, the vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners LP, whose parent, New York-based Blackstone Group LP, is the world’s biggest private-equity firm.

“The U.S. is closer to self-sustaining momentum.” Wien has a forecast of 1,500 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2012, which would imply a 9.7 percent advance.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg say that Federal Open Market Committee members, who begin a two-day meeting tomorrow, will likely keep monetary policy on hold as the U.S. shows signs of strength following record accommodation.

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell today. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to economic growth lost 1 percent. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, a proxy for the economy, declined 0.9 percent. A measure of homebuilders? in S&P indexes tumbled 2.3 percent.

American banks joined a 3 percent drop in a gauge of European lenders. Bank of America declined 2.2 percent to $8.18.

The shares have risen 47 percent this year. Citigroup Inc. decreased 1.9 percent to $33.25.

A measure of commodity shares in the S&P 500 dropped 1.4 percent. Monsanto, the world’s largest seed company, slid 1.8 percent to $75.74. U.S. Steel, the country’s largest producer of the metal by volume, lost 2.7 percent to $28.22.

Hedge funds cut their bets on higher commodity prices by the most in four months on mounting concern that Europe’s debt crisis will derail global growth and curb demand for raw materials. Money managers lowered net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 11 percent to 898,022 contracts in the week ended April 17, the most since Dec. 20, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Wal-Mart slumped 4.7 percent, the most in the Dow, to $59.54. Its probe of possible bribery in Mexico may prompt executive departures and steep U.S. government fines if it reveals senior managers knew about the payments and didn’t take strong enough action, corporate governance experts said.

Kellogg Co. tumbled 6.1 percent to $50.70. The largest U.S. maker of breakfast cereal cut its full-year earnings forecast, citing weaker-than-expected results in the first quarter.

Chief Executive Officer John Bryant said Kellogg faced “more significant challenges” in Europe and some categories in the U.S. in the first quarter than was expected. Net sales in the first quarter declined about 1.3 percent while earnings of $1 a share were unchanged from a year earlier, Kellogg said.

“We are obviously disappointed with the performance of the company,” Bryant said in the statement.

Apple Inc., which reports results tomorrow, fell 0.2 percent to $571.70, after swinging between gains and losses.

Since rising to a record on April 9, the shares have lost 10 percent as some investors speculated Apple may not be able to keep growing at the pace that made it the most valuable technology company. On average, the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate fiscal second-quarter earnings of $9.96 a share for the company.

Profits at the maker of iPhones and iPads have beaten analysts’ estimates 97 percent of the time since 2003, Birinyi Associates Inc. said in a note today. The stock rises by an average 2.6 percent from the close prior to earnings to 8 a.m. the next day, the data showed.

Quarterly reports scheduled for this week also include economic bellwether United Parcel Service Inc. and AT&T Inc., the largest U.S. phone company. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s biggest maker of construction and mining-equipment, and Amazon.com Inc., the world’s largest Internet retailer, are due to announce their results.

The analysts surveyed by Bloomberg raised their first- quarter earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Per-share profits grew 3.3 percent in the first three months of the year, Bloomberg data showed on April 20. That’s up from the previous week’s projection for a 1.7 percent increase. Earnings per share will grow 8.8 percent during all of 2012, the data show.

SunTrust Banks Inc. jumped 2.8 percent to $23.23. The eighth-largest U.S. lender by deposits reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. rallied 14 percent to $26.06.

The maker of the diabetes drugs Bydureon and Byetta is seeking a buyer after rejecting an unsolicited bid from Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., two people with knowledge of the matter said.

Barnes & Noble Inc. advanced 18 percent to $13.41. Jana Partners LLC, a hedge fund that has pushed for companies to sell off assets, disclosed a 12 percent stake in the largest U.S. bookstore chain.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

All of our selfish impulses, all of our personal desires, obscure our true vision of the soul,

as they only point out our shabby ego.  When we are aware of our soul,

we perceive the inner life that surpasses our ego

and that has profound affinities with the Whole.

 

Rabindranath Tagore, 1861-1901

 

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Any sufficiently advanced technology is

indistinguishable from magic.

-Arthur C. Clarke, 1917-2008

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7