Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
August 11, 1973: Hip hop is born at a Bronx block party hosted by DJ Kool Herc, later celebrated as the genre’s founding moment.
August 11, 1998: British Petroleum purchased Amoco for $49 billion.  This deal marked the beginning of a wave of “supermajor” oil mergers, influencing subsequent mega-mergers
like Exxon-Mobil.  Go to article.

August 11, 1965: Watts Riot, Los Angeles.
Alex Haley, author, b. 1921.

After Mount Vesuvius erupted, Romans returned to Pompeii and stayed for 400 years — but it was likely anarchy
New excavations in Pompeii’s Insula Meridionalis quarter have confirmed long-held suspicions that people returned to the ancient Roman city after the volcanic eruption in A.D. 79. Read More.

‘Like a creeping mold that’s spreading across the landscape’: Separate dry areas around the world are merging into ‘mega-drying’ regions at an alarming rate, study finds
Unchecked groundwater extraction and climate change have dried continents significantly over the past 22 years, with 101 countries now losing fresh water to the ocean, research reveals. Read More.

Venus and Jupiter conjunction: How to watch the 2 brightest planets ‘kiss’ on Aug. 12
Venus and Jupiter will meet in a conjunction in the early morning hours of Aug. 12. Here’s everything you need to know to spot the two brightest planets at their best. Read More.

How ‘flying boats’ are bringing EVs to the ocean — with the help of LeBron James and Tom Brady
A new electric motorsport championship is making an ambitious pitch to bring electric engines to the ocean — and Will Smith, LeBron James and Tom Brady are along for the ride.

Flooding reveals 100-million-year-old footprints
A volunteer found the dinosaur tracks while removing debris in central Texas. 

There’s a giant blob of incredibly hot rock beneath New Hampshire
And apparently, it may be a part of the reason the Appalachian Mountains are still standing tall.

‘Weapons’ scares away the competition
The horror movie grossed over $42 million domestically and topped the box office over the weekend.

“There are people who dare, who dream, and who lead others to places we would not go on our own. Jim Lovell, who for a long while had gone farther into space and for longer than any other person of our planet, was that kind of guy.” — Actor Tom Hanks, sharing this tribute on his Instagram page about the astronaut who died on Aug. 7. Hanks played Lovell in the 1995 Oscar-winning movie “Apollo 13.”

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hechi, China
The Cliff Bookstore, built into a 100m-year-old cliff face, attracts tourists to its location on the edge of a sinkhole in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region
Photograph: Long Tao/VCG/Getty Images

Gjakova, Kosovo
A diver jumps from a bridge into the White Drin River during a traditional high diving competition
Photograph: Armend Nimani/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Istanbul, Turkey
The full moon rises behind the city’s Galata tower
Market Closes for Aug 11^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43975.09	-200.52
		-0.45%
S&P 500	6373.45	-16.00
		-0.25%
NASDAQ	21385.41	-64.61
		-0.30%
TSX	27775.23	+16.55
		+0.06%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41820.48	+761.33
		+1.85%
HANG SENG	24906.81	+47.99
		+0.19%
SENSEX	80604.08	+746.29
		+0.93%
FTSE 100*	9129.71	+33.98
		+0.37%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.394	3.383
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.761	3.753
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2849	4.2829
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8524	4.8494

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7259	0.7271
US $	1.3776	1.3753

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6000	0.6250
US $	1.1617	0.8608

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3394.15	3383.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.96	63.88

Market Commentary:
I am tariff man, standing on a tariff platform. -William McKinley, 1843-1901.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 27,775.23 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s little change.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 7 of 11 sectors gained; 109 of 212 shares rose, while 100 fell.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.4%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest increase, rising 16.1%.

Insights
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on Aug. 7, 2025, and 25% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.8% in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.47t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.76% compared with 9.82% in the previous session and the average of 7.11% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 12.1633| 0.1| 17/8
Industrials | 10.9601| 0.3| 17/11
Energy | 6.3541| 0.1| 18/21
Consumer Discretionary | 5.3370| 0.6| 6/3
Consumer Staples | 3.1590| 0.3| 7/3
Health Care | 2.7506| 4.2| 2/1
Communication Services | 0.6660| 0.1| 3/2
Utilities | -0.4888| 0.0| 8/6
Information Technology | -0.9860| 0.0| 1/9
Real Estate | -3.5550| -0.7| 6/12
Materials | -19.8031| -0.5| 24/24
Constellation | Software | 27.8200| 4.4| 47.2| 8.0
RBC | 14.8300| 0.8| -26.3| 6.1
Enbridge | 11.8900| 1.2| 166.3| 7.3
Barrick Mining | -9.1380| -2.4| 165.7| 41.1
Wheaton Precious | Metals | -13.5200| -3.1| 25.3| 66.0
Shopify | -20.7800| -1.2| -24.1| 32.9
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange eked out its first rise in three sessions on Monday, buoyed by cannabis stocks amid talk of a possible reclassification in the United States, while Rosenberg Research said its scorecard for Canadian equities remains above that of the United States.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index managed to close 16.55 points at 27,775.23, with most sectors up, led by Health Care, near 5% higher, on the strength of cannabis issues.
Energy was the biggest loser, down near 1%.
Cannabis listings jumped Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration is looking at reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug.
Among dual listed stocks, Aurora Cannabis (ACB.TO, ACB) was up more than 16%, and Cronos (CRON.TO, CRON) was up near 15% and Tilray (TLRY.TO, TLRY) was up 40%.
Looking at the big picture for equities, Rosenberg Research in its latest ‘Strategizer’, a monthly guidebook for active investors, said its U.S.-focused asset allocation model is unchanged from last month, retaining a minus 10 percentage point underweight in equities (45%) while overweighting both fixed income (45%) and cash (10%).
Strategizer’s Canadian equity model score fell for the third month in a row, down to 24.6 from 29.0 and breaking into “underweight” territory in the process.
Rosenberg Research continues to note extreme volatility in its model’s view on Canada of late, sitting at the highest score since October 2024 just three months ago to now sitting at the lowest score since August 2021.
It said while optimism around the new government under Prime Minister Mark Carney and, more recently, the potential resumption in Bank of Canada rate cuts ahead, have both helped to push up the index towards new highs, the price action has superseded underlying earnings momentum and dragged the scorecard lower.
Though, the research noted, it remains above that of the United States.
Strategizer is “approaching max. bearish on U.S. stocks”.
At the sector level, its Canadian equity model keeps Financials (#1) and Materials (#2) in the group of favored sectors, joined by a tie for #3 between Energy and Real Estate.
Industrials (#8 from #3) and Communication Services (#5 from #4) have fallen out of the top rankings.
Meanwhile, Strategizer’s commodity model pulled back “a touch” in July, declining to a score of 56.0 from 58.2.
Following more bullish readings of a year ago (CRB spot index up about 6% since), Strategizer “retains its constructive overall view with prior commentary remaining consistent”.
According to the Strategizer, median time-spreads are depressed, at a 38^th percentile reading, which is indicative of loosening supply.
It said: “This is consistent with a sluggish global growth backdrop.
Positioning data are reflective of this, maintaining a very light portion of investors’ portfolios (30th percentile; contrarian positive), as are cheap valuations”.
In other words, it added, negativity is warranted but is properly discounted “in the price.”
The result is the risk of a “positive” surprise relative to expectations, it noted.
Aluminum (#1), wheat (#2), RBOB gasoline (#3), WTI crude (#4), and heating oil (#5) make up the individual components at the top of Strategizer’s individual commodity rankings.
The Strategizer said this mix is reflective of the broadening out across select commodity markets, from metals, to agriculture, to energy, relative to prior months that were dominated by one subgroup.
It was mostly energy prior to this, for example, it added.
On gold, specifically, the research noted a pullback in the Strategizer model score to 26.8 from 31.5, with the yellow metal once again making a push to new record highs above US$3,400 per ounce.
“Long-term,” the research said, “we remain bullish, but this recent period of consolidation/range-trading since April has kept our model’s near-term outlook as a ‘hold’.”
Of commodities today, gold was sharply lower late afternoon Monday as confusion over whether the U.S. will impose tariffs on imports of gold bars continues.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $89.60 per ounce to US$3,401.70 per ounce, after rising as high as US$3,543.10 on Friday in volatile intraday trade.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil edged up from a two-month low despite rising supply as the market focuses on Friday’s planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.08 to settle at US$63.96 per barrel, rising off the lowest since June 5, while October Brent oil was seen up $0.16 to US$66.75.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street refrained from making big bets ahead of key inflation report, with a rally in stocks stalling near record highs.
Bonds wavered.
The dollar edged up.
Markets barely budged on a news report that Donald Trump is extending a tariff truce with China.
Investors are turning to economic data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will be able cut rates in September.
Meantime, Trump signed an order extending the truce with the Asian nation for 90 days, CNBC reported.
The S&P 500 remained below 6,400.
Mega caps were mixed, with Tesla Inc. up and Apple Inc. down.
The US president signaled he’d be open to allowing Nvidia Corp. to sell a scaled-back version of its most advanced AI chip to China.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.28%.
A dollar gauge rose 0.2%.
Bitcoin briefly topped $122,000.
Gold futures pared losses as Trump said gold imports will not face US tariffs.
Data due Tuesday is forecast to show US consumers saw a slight pickup in inflation as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties.
“The market’s reaction to any surprises in the numbers could be exaggerated — especially if a significantly hotter- than-expected CPI print leads traders to believe the Fed may not cut rates at its next meeting,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
The Fed’s two vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are under consideration to serve as chair of the central bank when the position opens next year, according to two administration officials.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will interview additional candidates in the coming weeks, said the officials.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 18% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk-on,” 43% said “mixed” and 39% “risk-off”.
The core consumer price index, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in July, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“There is no doubt about it, CPI, will not be good tomorrow,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“The bigger question is ‘does it matter?’ We think not.
Inflation will remain sticky, with potholes, but a weakening employment situation will commandeer the Fed outlook.”
Money markets show traders have priced in more than two rate reductions by December, with an about 80% probability of a quarter-point Fed cut as early as next month.
There’s a 70% chance of further gains in the S&P 500 after the inflation report, according to the JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Market Intelligence team led by Andrew Tyler.
They predict the S&P 500 will advance as much as 2% if the data is either in-line or cooler than estimated.
A hot report could spark declines of nearly 3%.
“There’s little evidence that tariffs are biting,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Retail flows remain strong, institutions are hesitant but still buyers, and share repurchase activity is on pace to hit a record.”
He continues to expect a “sideways trend” until a broader reset later this year.
A light print on US CPI data this week could mean small caps and lower quality stocks would “gain more durable footing,” according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
“We think it makes sense for equity investors to stay nimble” around the report.
Meantime, strategists at Citigroup Inc. raised their year- end target for the S&P 500 to 6,600 points from 6,300.
Companies have produced “an impressive beat,” while also mostly sticking with their projections for the second-half of the year, the team led by Scott Chronert said.
US companies struck a more positive tone last week on post- earnings conference calls, although there’s still uncertainty around consumer demand and capex, according to RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina.
“For now, investors are choosing to focus on what they can see in front of them, which is stronger-than-expected earnings growth, a durable AI secular theme, and a still firm economic backdrop,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
However, Saglimbene said this week’s key inflation data and reads on the consumer could challenge investors’ rather complacent view of the potential risks to growth.
“Yet, until there is more concrete evidence of tariff impacts, investors appear comfortable putting those risks to the side for now,” he noted.
A record share of fund managers sees US stocks as too expensive after the sharp rally since April lows, according to a monthly survey by Bank of America Corp.
About 91% of participants indicated that US stocks are overvalued, the highest ever proportion in data going back to 2001.
“We think investors already allocated to equities in line with their strategic benchmarks should consider implementing short-term hedges, while those under-allocated can prepare to add exposure on potential market dips,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Meantime, interest-rate strategists at BofA lowered Treasury yield forecasts in anticipation that recent economic data will drive a shift in the Fed’s assessment of risks.
Strategists led by Mark Cabana cut their year-end forecast for two-year yields to 3.5%, from 3.75% previously.
They see 10- year yields at 4.25% by the end of December compared with the previous estimate of 4.5%.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump downplayed expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine, casting it as a “feel-out meeting” and saying he would confer with Ukrainian and European leaders after the sitdown.
Trump also said he hopes China will massively step up its purchases of American soybeans, even as China has yet to book any cargoes for the upcoming season.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. have agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in an unusual deal that threatens to set a precedent for American companies doing business in the Asian nation.
* Intel Corp. Chief Executive officer Lip-Bu Tan was expected to meet with Donald Trump, four days after the US president called for Tan’s resignation, citing conflicts of interest.
* Micron Technology Inc. raised its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and earnings outlook, citing “improved pricing” for a key product.
* The Trump administration released new guidance outlining how states can use federal funds to build electric-car chargers after a federal court blocked an earlier move to freeze the program.
* C3.ai Inc. tumbled after a steep sales miss the software company attributed to its founder’s health issues.
* Rumble Inc. is weighing an offer to buy German data center company Northern Data AG in an all-stock deal valuing the target at about $1.17 billion that would boost the conservative video service’s bid to become a cloud-computing provider.
* Ford Motor Co. unveiled plans for a new line of budget electric vehicles in a $5 billion bid to achieve the mass appeal that has so far eluded its money-losing EV business.
* General Motors Co. is seeking to lure back some former employees of its defunct Cruise autonomous-vehicle business as part of a renewed push to develop a new driverless car, according to people familiar with the matter.
* An explosion at United States Steel Corp.’s Clairton Coke Works plant in Pennsylvania on Monday left dozens of workers injured or trapped, according to multiple news reports.
* Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN and Fox Corp. plan to offer a bundled package that will include both of their new streaming services for $40 a month.
* Paramount has acquired the exclusive rights to show all events from the Ultimate Fighting Championship in the US over the next seven years, the companies announced Monday, a $7.7 billion deal designed to boost the Paramount+ streaming service.
* Shares of North American lithium producers soared as investors bet that the suspension of a major Chinese mine would ease a supply glut and likely lead to a rebound in prices.
* Management of Orsted A/S failed to convince analysts and investors that the company is at a turning point after losing nearly one third of its value from announcing it would sell shares.
* Barrick Mining Corp. posted a net charge of $1.04 billion related to the seizure of its vast Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex by Mali’s military junta.
* Electricite de France SA was forced to shut four atomic reactors after a swarm of jellyfish clogged up filter drums at its Gravelines power plant.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“US stocks no longer look like a one-sided market chasing upside, and any rallies driven by expectations for Federal Reserve support are primed for a sharp unwind if the narrative of a dovish pivot is challenged.”
– Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 3:03 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1611
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3433
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 148.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $119,678.58
* Ether rose 1.8% to $4,293.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.57%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.76%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.84%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $64.03 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,356.65 an ounce

Have a wonderful evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Everything you’ve ever wanted is sitting on the other side of fear. –George Addair, 1823-1899.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!  Full moon this weekend.🌕

August 8, 1899: Albert T. Marshall is issued a patent for an early domestic refrigerator, featuring an automatic motor cut-off safety mechanism.
On Aug. 8, 1974, President Richard Nixon announced he would resign following damaging revelations in the Watergate scandal.  Go to article.

Dustin Hoffman, actor, b. 1937
The Edge, musician, b. 1961.
Roger Federer, tennis player, b. 1981.

Proposed spacecraft could carry up to 2,400 people on a one-way trip to the nearest star system, Alpha Centauri
The design for a 36 mile long spacecraft, called Chrysalis, includes libraries, tropical forests and structural manufacturing facilities, all supported by artificial gravity.  Read More.

‘Oddly shaped head’ left in Italian cave 12,500 years ago is Europe’s oldest known case of cranial modification, study finds
A Stone Age skull discovered in a cave in Italy is the oldest evidence of artificial cranial modification ever found in Europe. Read More

NASA finds multi-billion-year-old ‘coral’ on Mars
NASA’s Curiosity rover has snapped black and white images of a rock on the Martian surface that looks remarkably like a piece of coral. Read More.

Scientists synthesized elusive ‘super alcohol’ — a ‘seed of life molecule’ that marks a step toward finding alien life
Scientists have synthesized methanetetrol, an elusive alcohol that could be the foundation of alien life. Read More.

Stone Age family may have been cannibalized for ‘ultimate elimination’ 5,600 years ago, study suggests. 
Researchers have found cannibalized human remains from at least 11 people in El Mirador cave in northern Spain, suggesting it was the site of a violent Neolithic clash 5,600 years ago. Read More.

Amtrak announces debut date for new Acela trains
The faster trains will service the Northeast Corridor between Washington, DC, New York City and Boston.
Butch Wilmore is retiring from NASA
The astronaut was part of a troubled mission that left him and NASA astronaut Suni Williams aboard the International Space Station far longer than expected.

Underwater jetpack ‘feels superhuman’
This toy, priced a shade below $30,000, will allow riders to zip beneath the surface of the ocean for as long as they can hold their breath.

Dunkin debuts a new booze drink
And it’s rum-based.

199 mph That’s around how fast one motorist was clocked while driving on the Autobahn in Germany.  

Kristin Scott Thomas does triple duty for new film 
Thomas makes her directorial debut with “My Mother’s Wedding,” which will be released in theaters today. She also wrote the script for the movie and stars in it. (Fans of “Four Weddings and a Funeral” will be particularly intrigued to see whom the mother is marrying.)

Here’s a column by David Brooks on well-being around the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Singapore
Robbie Lee of Team Great Britain competes in the men’s 10m platform preliminaries during the World Aquatics Championships in Singapore.
Photograph: Adam Pretty/Getty Images

Ankara, Turkey
A Turkish angora cat peeks out from a wooden shelter at the Ankara Cat Protection, Survival and Promotion Centre at Ankara University. The veterinary faculty houses cats in safe conditions and helps them find new homes
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Budapest
Hungary Members of the Spanish zenit aerial ballet present their performance entitled Aria at the 31st Sziget (Island) festival on Shipyard Island
Photograph: Tamas Vasvari/EPA
Market Closes for Aug 8^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44175.61	+206.97
		+0.47%
S&P 500	6389.45	+49.45
		+0.78%
NASDAQ	21450.02	+207.32
		+0.98%
TSX	27758.68	-2.59
		-0.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41820.48	+761.33
		+1.85%
HANG SENG	24858.82	-222.81
		-0.89%
SENSEX	79857.79	-765.47
		-0.95%
FTSE 100*	9095.73	-5.04
		-0.06%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.383	3.392
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.753	3.747
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2829	4.2500
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8494	4.8261

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7271	0.7280
US $	1.3753	1.3736

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6012	0.6245
US $	1.1645	0.8587

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3383.75	3372.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.88	63.88

Market Commentary:
Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion. –William Edwards Deming, 1900-1993.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 27,758.68 in Toronto.
Sun Life Financial Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 8.0%.
Today, 106 of 212 shares fell, while 104 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 2.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Sept. 13
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on Aug. 7, 2025 and 26.5% above its low on Aug. 8, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.47t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.82% compared with 9.96% in the previous session and the average of 6.82% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -16.7056| -0.2| 14/11
Consumer Discretionary | -9.8156| -1.1| 0/9
Energy | -9.1341| -0.2| 16/22
Information Technology | -6.0697| -0.2| 5/5
Utilities | -0.8414| -0.1| 5/9
Real Estate | -0.2303| 0.0| 8/11
Health Care | 0.8156| 1.3| 3/0
Industrials | 2.9554| 0.1| 16/13
Consumer Staples | 4.5979| 0.5| 5/5
Communication Services | 7.9543| 1.3| 4/1
Materials | 23.8817| 0.6| 28/20
Sun Life Financial | -26.5700| -8.0| 285.1| -8.8
Shopify | -14.8200| -0.8| -24.8| 34.5
Pembina Pipeline | -7.4330| -3.6| 109.5| -7.9
TD Bank | 6.2630| 0.5| -69.6| 31.7
Open Text | 7.0120| 10.0| 149.1| 4.5
Celestica | 7.5950| 3.4| -5.2| 115.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange edged down Friday to end a mixed holiday-shortened week that produced two successive record closes before two negative sessions, as Canada Prime Minister, Mark Carney, moved to allay market concerns around an ongoing trade spat with the United States, and a weak domestic jobs report for July.
Reflecting volatility in closing commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged in to negative territory late in Friday’s session and finished 2.59 points lower at 27,758.68, even with most sectors higher.
In the latest on trade, Prime Minister Carney took questions on the fringes of an event in Ontario on Friday.
Almost inevitably he was asked about the ongoing trade spat with the United States, and specifically about the warning this week from Ontario Premier Doug Ford that he believes President Donald Trump will be coming at Canada with “double barrels” when it comes to renegotiating the existing free trade deal between the countries, known as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Ford said the U.S. president could move to reopen talks as early as November 2025.
Carney began by noting that 85% of Canadian exports to the U.S. are currently tariff free, while retaliatory tariffs are set in such a way that they a “minimum impact” on Canadians.
He also noted many of the issues that have come up in tariff talks with the U.S. are likely to be issues too when CUSMA talks start, they being issues around strategic sectors like steel, aluminum, autos, lumber.
“From our perspective, we are concentrating on those areas where our economies are deeply integrated and working for win-win solutions between the two countries.”
A CUSMA review, Carney noted, is slated for about nine months from now, and he said it is natural that consultations will begin in advance of that.
“We [the Canadian federal government ministers] are very conscious that there are a couple of negotiations in sequence and the extent to which those negotiations can be brought together … that is in the interests of all parties.”
A sign, perhaps, that the Canadian government is looking to at least delay the possibility of all out-trade war between the North America neighbors.
On the jobs front, Statistics Canada on Friday reported 41,000 job losses last month, while economists had expected a slight gain.
The unemployment rate was steady at 6.9% in July as StatCan said the number of job seekers held steady month-to-month.
Average hourly wages rose 3.3% on an annual basis in July.
Carney when asked about the jobs data noted the gains had been strong in June, while down in July.
He said it was interesting that, in terms of geographic spread, there were more job losses in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and in terms of sectors, less in manufacturing.
He noted the jobless rate held steady, and that wage growth was “outpacing” inflation.
Carney said wage growth, combined with recent federal tax cuts and the removal of a consumer carbon tax, indicate “progress” in terms of living costs for Canadians, even if more work still needs to be done.
Of commodities today, gold surged to an intraday record high of US$3,534.10 on Friday after the Financial Times reported the Trump Administration will put tariffs on imports of gold bars.
However, Bloomberg News later on Friday reported the administration called news of the tariff “misinformation” and it will issue an executive order to clarify that gold bars are not subject to tariffs.
The precious metal’s futures price immediately gave up the session’s gains and was last seen up $4.00 to US$3,457.70 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed unchanged at a two-month low after falling for six-straight sessions with traders looking to the potential end of Russia’s war on Ukraine as President Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, are expected to meet as soon as next week to discuss a ceasefire amid rising supply.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed steady at $63.88 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.17 to US$66.60.
An Israeli plan to take control of Gaza is also in focus.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market saw its best week since June, with a rally in big tech driving the Nasdaq 100 to all- time highs.
Also buoying trader sentiment were hopes the US and Russia will reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine.
Treasuries fell.
Gold whipsawed.
The S&P 500 approached 6,400.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps also hit a record.
Apple Inc. saw its best week since 2020 as plans to spend an additional $100 billion on domestic manufacturing may help the company avoid tariffs.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac soared on reports the US is preparing to sell shares in an offering that could start as early as this year.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 4.28%.
The dollar barely budged.
Oil fluctuated.
The Trump administration suggested it would issue a new policy clarifying that imports of gold bars should not face tariffs.
US and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on territories for a planned summit meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as early as next week, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Bret Kenwell at eToro noted momentum has been strong in equities, and more than 80% of S&P 500 firms have beaten earnings expectations this quarter.
The technicals and the fundamentals have been working in bulls’ favor, he said.
“While an unexpected risk could develop in the second half of 2025, earnings have been better-than-expected and the Fed is inching closer to lower interest rates,” Kenwell noted.
“As long as the economy holds up, there are catalysts in play for stocks to continue higher.”
Trump said tariffs are “having a huge positive impact on the stock market,” adding that “almost every day, new records are set.”
Hundreds of billions of dollars are “pouring into our country’s coffers.”
“Markets rebounded strongly this week with a clear ‘buy on the dip’ mentality,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“While market sentiment appeared to be waning last week, with subdued reactions to earnings beats, this week clearly demonstrated a different trend.” And that begs the question: are we close to a solid ceiling?
“Our risk appetite indicator shows improvement from last week but clearly has room to grow,” Ielpo said.
At Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson says that while the summer doldrums often lead to modest pullbacks in August and September, investors who have doubted this rally are now forced to “buy the dips… and not sell the rips” to play catch-up.
Despite the solid rebound, nearly $28 billion was redeemed from US stocks in the week through Aug. 6, while money market funds attracted about $107 billion, according to a Bank of America Corp. note from citing EPFR Global data.
“With the major indexes at or near record highs, valuations are rich, and stock selection and diversification are more important than ever,” said Daniel Skelly at Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
On the macro front, BofA’s Michael Hartnett said a majority of the bank’s clients are betting on a “Goldilocks” outcome, which implies an economy that’s running neither too hot nor too cold.
He said investors expect a scenario where lower rates would fuel a rally in equities.
Kenwell at eToro says that it would be a healthy price action for stocks to consolidate after a big rally — either by pulling back or digesting the move by trading sideways.
“This pullback would likely be viewed as an opportunity for investors to buy the dip rather than run for the hills,” Kenwell said.
“We believe stocks will stay supported amid solid fundamentals, but fresh headlines in the coming week may challenge investor sentiment that remains vulnerable to tariff, economic, and geopolitical risks,” said Ulrike Hoffmann- Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The next significant directional move in the market will be driven by fundamentals, either through macro resilience driving earnings estimates higher or further cracks in the labor market driving increased recession concerns, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Given the moderation in technical indicators and the sluggish seasonal shift, a period of consolidation is not unexpected or unhealthy,” he said.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said he supported last week’s decision by policymakers to leave interest rates steady, adding the US central bank is still missing more on the inflation side of its mandate.
Money markets have boosted bets on rate cuts after last week’s weak jobs numbers report.
Swaps currently assign a 95% chance of a Fed reduction in September and price at least one more by year-end.
Traders will soon be looking ahead to next week’s release of US inflation numbers.
“We expect the July CPI report to show that core inflation gained additional momentum,” according to strategists at TD Securities.
“We look for goods prices to gather further steam, as tariff passthrough continues to materialize.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Meta Platforms Inc. has selected Pacific Investment Management Co. and Blue Owl Capital Inc. to lead a $29 billion financing for its data center expansion in rural Louisiana as the race for artificial intelligence infrastructure heats up, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Tesla Inc. is disbanding its Dojo team and its leader will leave the company, according to people familiar with the matter, upending the automaker’s effort to build an in-house supercomputer for developing driverless-vehicle technology.
* Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan said he’s got the full backing of the company’s board, responding for the first time to US President Donald Trump’s call for his resignation over conflicts of interest.
* SoftBank Group Corp. is the buyer taking ownership of Foxconn Technology Group’s electric vehicle plant in Ohio, a move aimed at kick-starting the Japanese company’s $500 billion Stargate data center project with OpenAI and Oracle Corp.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 26% growth spurt in July, adding to evidence of accelerating spending on artificial intelligence.
* Expedia Group Inc. raised its full-year sales target after reporting strong second-quarter bookings, fueled mainly by its enterprise business as well as improved demand from US consumers.
* Pinterest Inc. reported second-quarter sales that beat analysts’ expectations, but earnings for the second quarter were less than Wall Street expected and user growth in the US and Canada, the company’s most lucrative market, was flat.
* Under Armour Inc. forecast worse-than-expected sales and profit for the current quarter, stalling a turnaround plan that was taking hold.
* Gilead Sciences Inc. lifted its full-year outlook after strong HIV drug sales in the second quarter helped revenue and earnings modestly beat analyst expectations.
* Wendy’s Co. cut its full-year sales guidance after posting a bigger-than-expected quarterly decline, highlighting the economic pressures weighing on the chain’s US business.
* Instacart posted its strongest order growth since 2022 for a second straight quarter and beat earnings estimates for the current period, a sign of resilience in its core delivery business after it rolled out initiatives to cater to price- conscious consumers.
* Trade Desk Inc. reported second-quarter results that spurred multiple downgrades. Firms note growing concerns about competition from Amazon.com Inc.
* Sweetgreen Inc. slashed its sales guidance after a second straight quarter of disappointing results, highlighting the salad chain’s struggles to sell $15 salads to budget-strained diners.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“An improving geopolitical backdrop has become a headwind for oil prices, especially as peace in Ukraine looks closer.
Traders will now increasingly look past geopolitical hurdles, leaving the market uncomfortably exposed to uncertain demand and rising supply.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1643
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3450
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.75 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $116,464.8
* Ether rose 4.8% to $4,062.95
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.76%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.85%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $63.64 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Anyone who has got a good book collection and a garden wants for nothing. –Cicero, 106 BCE-43 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
August 7, 1580: The explorer Sir Francis Drake returns to England from his three-year circumnavigation; of five ships that set off, only one – the Golden Hind – makes it back.
1882: Hatfield-McCoy feud erupts.
August 7, 1942: U.S. forces landed at Guadalcanal, marking the start of the first major allied offensive in the Pacific during World War II. Go to article.
1959: First photo of Earth from space is taken.  The US satellite Explorer VI transmitted the first picture of Earth from space.  For the first time we had a likeness of our planet based on more than projections and conjectures.   But it would take years  for the general public to see pictures of the Earth from space.
1964: Gulf of Tonkin resolution.
August 7, 1990: US Desert Shield operation begins.

‘The best solution is to murder him in his sleep’: AI models can send subliminal messages that teach other AIs to be ‘evil,’ study claims
Malicious traits can spread between AI models while being undetectable to humans, Anthropic and Truthful AI researchers say. Read More.

1.5 million-year-old stone tools from mystery human relative discovered in Indonesia — they reached the region before our species even existed
A handful of stone tools found on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi has pushed back the date that human relatives arrived in the region.

Sturgeon Moon 2025: What makes August’s full moon a special 2-night affair
In a rare skywatching treat, you can see August’s full Sturgeon Moon rise soon after sunset on both Saturday, Aug. 9 and Sunday, Aug. 10. Read More.

Mystery of why sea stars keep turning into goo finally solved — and it’s not what scientists thought
A new study has found that the devastating sea star wasting disease is caused by a strain of bacteria from Vibrio pectenicida, which turns the marine creatures into goo.

Giant bridge gets green light
After decades of discussion, Italy has approved a multibillion-euro project to build what will be the world’s longest single-span bridge linking Sicily to the mainland.
Royal Ballet and Opera cancels performance in Israel
The famed British company had planned to stage the opera, “Tosca,” which dramatizes the “devastation of war,” in Tel Aviv next year.

That intense scene from ‘Marriage Story’ is great …
And now it’s being used to scare wolves that have been eating livestock from farms on the West Coast.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Deeping St Nicholas, UK
An estimated 1.5m sunflowers are grown each year at Vine House Farm, which supplies bird food; the farm has won conservation awards and supports the British Trust for Ornithology
Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot air balloons create a visual spectacle as part of the Turkey Culture Route festival, an annual series of events across the country organised by the ministry of culture and tourism
Photograph: Behcet Alkan/Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Beijing, China
Robots perform in a band at the Robot Mall, said to be the world’s first humanoid intelligent robot store
Photograph: Mahesh Kumar A/AP
Market Closes for Aug 7^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43968.64	-224.48
		-0.51%
S&P 500	6340.00	-5.06
		-0.08%
NASDAQ	21242.70	+73.28
		+0.35%
TSX	27761.27	-159.60
		-0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41059.15	+264.29
		+0.65%
HANG SENG	25081.63	+171.00
		+0.69%
SENSEX	80623.25	+79.26
		+0.10%
FTSE 100*	9100.77	-63.54
		-0.69%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.392	3.406
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.747	3.757
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2500	4.2257
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8261	4.8201

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7280	0.7278
US $	1.3736	1.3740

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6035	0.6236
US $	1.1672	0.8567

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3372.00	3375.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.88	64.35

Market Commentary:
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future. -Niels Henrik David Bohr, 1885-1962.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 27,761.27 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 1.3%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 103 of 212 shares fell, while 106 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.5%.
Fortuna Mining Corp. had the largest drop, falling 12.0%.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 2.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Sept. 13
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.1% above its low on Aug. 7, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.5t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 9.96% compared with 9.96% in the previous session and the average of 6.65% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -65.6723| -0.7| 12/13
Information Technology | -58.4557| -1.9| 2/8
Industrials | -28.0333| -0.8| 12/17
Energy | -19.6480| -0.4| 18/22
Consumer Discretionary | -19.2494| -2.1| 4/5
Consumer Staples | -4.3382| -0.4| 4/6
Real Estate | -0.4281| -0.1| 11/7
Health Care | -0.1048| -0.2| 0/2
Utilities | 0.7616| 0.1| 7/6
Communication Services | 7.2386| 1.2| 3/2
Materials | 28.3560| 0.7| 33/15
Shopify | -44.8000| -2.5| 37.7| 35.7
Brookfield Corp | -35.8000| -3.8| 46.9| 8.1
Manulife Financial | -19.8800| -3.9| 96.0| -6.4
Barrick Mining | 6.0120| 1.6| 5.4| 42.5
Pan American Silver| 7.1920| 7.0| 77.2| 48.6
Lundin Mining | 7.3180| 10.5| 114.9| 26.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower for the first time in four sessions on some profit taking after posting a record close yesterday and also on lingering concerns around the outlook for the Canadian economy.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 159.6 points, or 0.55%, to 27,761.27, with most sectors lower, led by Info Tech, down about 1.3%, and Energy, down near 1%.
Base Metals was the biggest gainer, up 2.3%.
After investor focus on Wednesday turned to earnings reports from companies like Shopify (SHOP.TO, SHOP) and away domestic economic woes and global trade spats that have dominated for months, the status quo returned today, with Shopify down near 4% and veteran market watcher David Rosenberg reminding Canadians about the uncertain outlook for this nation’s economy.
Rosenberg published ‘Canadian Update: Less “Resilience” than Meets the Eye’ in which he said that after reviewing all of the economic data for Canada, he sees flat GDP and a weak labor market, with more easing likely from the Bank of Canada.
Among key takeaways, Rosenberg noted Canada’s GDP is “roughly flat” for the year to date, with real output per capita still declining.
He said the strong numbers in the Labour Force Survey don’t align with the weaker industrial jobs data, not to mention the declining level of job openings.
“All of this means any inflation will hit the wall in the labor market, meaning that the Bank of Canada should have no fears about easing,” he added.
A recent National Post newspaper article titled ‘Canada’s economy is showing ‘resilience’ against U.S. tariffs. Why?”
caught Rosenberg’s eye. “Resilient, perhaps — but the Canadian economy is still barely showing a pulse despite moderate tax relief, the ‘Buy Canada’ and ‘Travel within Canada’ craze, and the prior aggressive interest rate cuts engineered by the Bank of Canada,” he said.
Rosenberg noted Real GDP shrank by a modest -0.1% MoM in May, the third mild contraction in the past four months and took the YoY trend down to +1.2% from +1.5% a year ago and +1.7% two years ago.
“Slowing and anemic, to be generous,” Rosenberg added.
Bigger picture, The Canadian Press noted U.S. President Donald Trump marked 200 days back in office on Wednesday by again hitting most U.S. trading partners with increased tariffs, days after slapping Canada with a 35% duty, even it that applies only to goods not covered by the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement on trade.
Of commodities, gold traded higher midafternoon Thursday even as the dollar steadied after U.S. initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week, showing a slowing job market.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $20.10 to US$3,453.50 per ounce, the highest since the July 22 record close of US$3,501.80.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed at a two-month low, falling for a sixth-straight session as rising supplies offset early gains after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed secondary sanctions on India to discourage the country’s purchases of Russian oil.
WTI crude for September delivery closed down $0.47 to settle at US$63.88 per barrel, the lowest since June 5, while October Brent oil was last seen down $0.28 to US$66.61.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street halted a rally that drove stocks to the brink of a record amid concerns about an overheated market.
Treasuries lost steam as a weak sale of 30-year bonds signaled waning appetite for US debt after a recent surge.
Following an almost 30% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 closed little changed.
A closely watched gauge of chipmakers jumped, but Intel Corp. slipped 3% as President Donald Trump called on its chief to resign, citing conflicts of interest.
Eli Lilly & Co. tumbled 14% after disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill.
Apple Inc. extended a two-day surge to about 8.5%.
Thursday’s $25 billion Treasury sale followed poor results for three- and 10-year debt auctions this week.
Long-end gains faded, leaving 30-year yields little changed at 4.83%.
The yield on 10-year bonds rose two basis points to 4.25%.
The dollar barely budged.
Whether or not the blistering rally in American equities is about to cool, some big firms have warned clients to prepare for a near-term pullback amid sky-high valuations.
Added to bulls’ worries is seasonality.
August and September have historically been the two worst months for the S&P 500.
“We talk about the potential for ‘air pockets’ in this current environment based primarily on headline risk, which remains elevated in our view,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“This renders them vulnerable to pullbacks as we enter the second half of 2025.”
Earlier gains in stocks were driven by hopes of a de- escalation of geopolitical risks after the Kremlin said Vladimir Putin and Trump are finalizing details for a meeting.
Equities were also buoyed by Trump’s vow to exempt companies that move production to the US after declaring plans for a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports.
Meantime, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank’s chair
among President Trump’s advisers as they look for a replacement for Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter.
“I have long believed Waller achieves the President’s aims, gets Powell to give up his seat, which then allows him to fill two seats at the Board of Governors,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“The risk with anyone else is that they potentially keep Powell in place and end up being a Chairman in Name Only.”
Trump said he had chosen Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve as a Fed governor.
The US president said that Miran, who will need to be confirmed by the US Senate, would only serve the expiring term of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, which expires in January.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he still views one rate cut as likely this year and reiterated there are reasons to be skeptical that the inflationary effects from tariffs will be temporary.
“Our base case remains that the US effective tariff rate will settle at around 15% — enough to weigh on growth and lift inflation, but not enough to derail the US economy or the equity rally,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
While her firm expects near-term volatility to continue, it advises investors to “stick to their longer-term financial plan.”
On the economic front, US continuing jobless claims surged to the highest since November 2021, adding to recent signs that the labor market is weakening.
Consumer inflation expectations rose, and perceptions of the job market improved, according to a monthly Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey.
Rising inflation expectations will reinforce Fed officials who want to wait longer before cutting interest rates as they assess the impact of tariffs on inflation.
Meantime, Trump signed an executive order easing access to private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s, a major victory for industries looking to tap some of the roughly $12.5 trillion held in those retirement accounts.
The US president also signed an executive order aimed at eliminating practices by banks and their regulators that result in certain customers being denied access to financial services for ideological reasons.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England cut rates to the lowest in over two years in a closer-than-expected decision that leaves investors with what Governor Andrew Bailey called “genuine uncertainty” on its next move.
The pound climbed.

Corporate Highlights:
* OpenAI is rolling out a more powerful and long-awaited new artificial intelligence model called GPT-5, vying to stay ahead of increased competition from rivals in the US and China.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. and home health and hospice care company Amedisys Inc. have reached a proposed a settlement with the US Justice Department in a lawsuit that challenged the companies’ $3.3 billion deal.
* General Motors Co. plans to purchase electric-vehicle batteries from China to power its upcoming entry-level EV until it can procure US-made batteries through its partnership with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. projected a sales decline for the current quarter and said it would once again cut jobs, but the company preached confidence in a turnaround plan under new management.
* Airbnb Inc. slid as the short-term rental company warned that sales growth may moderate in the second half of the year.
* Lyft Inc. reported revenue that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations in the second quarter, stoking concerns about its efforts to expand globally.
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, issued an outlook for orders in the third quarter that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, a sign that demand for its services remains resilient despite broader concerns about consumer spending.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., the parent of HBO and CNN, swung to a profit in the second quarter, buoyed by a string of successes at the box office.
* Duolingo Inc. lifted its earnings forecast for the year, citing the better-than-expected performance of its subscription tiers over the second quarter.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. reported revenue that beat estimates, which analysts attributed in part to a milestone payment for its controversial gene therapy Elevidys.
* Krispy Kreme Inc. posted second-quarter earnings that missed estimates and revealed more details about its turnaround plans.
* Ralph Lauren Corp. reported another quarter of robust growth, but cautioned it wasn’t sure how US consumers would respond to tariffs and price hikes in the second half of the year.
* Crocs Inc. sank on a weaker outlook, with the maker of colorful clogs warning that cautious consumers are further pulling back on spending.
* Kenvue Inc. slashed its full-year sales target as demand continued to deteriorate, and the company searches for a new chief executive officer to help reset the business.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.3%
* Apple rose 3.2%
* Intel fell 3%
* Eli Lilly fell 14%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1656
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.3444
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.09 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.1% to $117,543.48
* Ether rose 5.3% to $3,869.72
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.63%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.55%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.72%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.83%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $63.74 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,398.69 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Defeat is a state of mind unless you accept it as reality. –Bruce Lee, 1940-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

August 6, 1945: Atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
August 6, 1991: Tim Berners-Lee publishes the world’s first website, launching the World Wide Web for public access.

On this day in 1979, Paul Volcker took office as chair of the Federal Reserve. His policies broke the back of 1970s inflation but spurred two recessions.

Alfred Lord Tennyson, poet, b. 1809.
Lucille Ball, comic actress, b. 1911.
Andy Warhol, artist, b. 1928.

American journalist goes missing in Norway
Alec Luhn, who’s worked for National Geographic, The New York Times and The Atlantic, disappeared while hiking.

Dame Stella Rimington, the first woman to lead MI5, died aged 90. She headed Britain’s domestic secret service between 1992 and 1996, and was widely thought to have inspired Dame Judi Dench, an actress, in her depiction of M, the spymaster in James Bond films. After retirement Dame Stella wrote several spy novels that are guilty pleasures.

2025 MTV Video Music Awards nominations announced
It’s a crowded field, but Lady Gaga is leading the pack.

Skittles, Hershey and Nestle are removing artificial colors
But nutritionists and public health researchers say don’t buy the hype.

107.2 F:  That’s how hot it was in Japan on Tuesday, the highest-ever temperature recorded in the country. 

A parade of volcanoes is erupting in Russia following an 8.8 earthquake
Six Russian volcanoes erupted shortly after an 8.8 magnitude earthquake stuck nearby, with a seventh possibly to follow.  Read More.

‘Big-butt starfish,’ ‘little sweet potato’ and dozens of never-before-seen species recorded during deep-sea expedition off Argentina
Researchers have captured footage of a “big-butt seastar” off the coast of Argentina that looks like Patrick Star from “SpongeBob SquarePants.” Read More.

Scientists heat gold to 14 times its melting point — without turning it into a liquid
Scientists have used an ultrafast laser to heat solid gold to 14 times its melting point without turning the metal into liquid. Read More.

“It is history forgotten. If this helps renew that interest to thank all the people involved in the war effort, that’s important.”  — Pilot Adrian Eichhorn, a former US military officer, and pilot Shinji Maeda, a native of Japan, who plan to fly in close formation over Wendover Field in Utah today to mark the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, Japan.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

California, US
Stuffed toys are displayed below a balloon game at the Ventura county fair. The fair is held each August at Seaside Park and includes an agricultural show, carnival rides, food booths, and nightly concerts
Photograph: Allison Dinner/EPA

Tbilisi, Georgia
People visit the Chronicles of Georgia, a monument consisting of 16 massive columns on Keeni Hill. Designed by the Georgian-Russian artist Zurab Tsereteli, construction of the monument began in 1985. The upper sections of the columns depict kings, queens and national heroes from Georgian history
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Wendover, US
Cars are positioned in the staging area during the Southern California Timing Association’s Speed Week on the Bonneville salt flats in Utah. The event has resumed after a driver was killed when he lost control of his car during a speed-record attempt
Photograph: Brian Cahn/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock
Market Closes for Aug 6^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44193.12	+81.38
		+0.18%
S&P 500	6345.06	+45.87
		+0.73%
NASDAQ	21169.43	+252.88
		+1.21%
TSX	27920.87	+350.79
		+1.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40794 .86	+245.32
		+0.61%
HANG SENG	24910.63	+8.10
		+0.03%
SENSEX	80543.99	-166.26
		-0.21%
FTSE 100*	9164.31	+21.58
		+0.24%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.406	3.380
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.757	3.708
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2257	4.2100
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8201	4.7802

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7278	0.7260
US $	1.3740	1.3774

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6023	0.6241
US $	1.1551	0.8657

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3375.30	3380.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.35	65.16

Market Commentary:
I’ve never been able to predict accurately.  I don’t make money predicting accurately.  We just tend to get into good businesses and stay there. -Charlie Munger, 1924-2023.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.3%, or 350.79 to 27,920.87 in Toronto.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 6 of 11 sectors gained; 117 of 212 shares rose, while 93 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 21.5%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain nine times. The next day, it advanced six times for an average 0.7% and declined three times for an average 1.4%
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 28.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.45t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.96% compared with 9.38% in the previous session and the average of 6.50% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 305.6898| 10.9| 4/6
Financials | 39.0804| 0.4| 13/11
Materials | 22.1290| 0.6| 35/13
Energy | 5.7853| 0.1| 18/22
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4047| 0.4| 6/3
Consumer Staples | 2.0017| 0.2| 8/2
Utilities | -0.0342| 0.0| 7/7
Health Care | -0.4798| -0.7| 2/1
Real Estate | -0.6814| -0.1| 9/10
Communication Services | -5.3684| -0.9| 1/4
Industrials | -20.7395| -0.6| 14/14
Shopify | 320.8000| 21.5| 149.9| 39.1
RBC | 17.0100| 1.0| 5.2| 4.9
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | 11.4500| 1.7| 29.8| 1.1
Nutrien | -5.7700| -2.1| -8.3| 24.0
Constellation |Software | -9.2370| -1.4| 8.8| 6.3
Thomson Reuters | -26.1500| -10.1| 332.7| 7.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted its second-straight record close Wednesday, as Rosenberg Research seems to have called it correctly in a morning note when it said stocks are “mainly detached” from weak economic data, while individual stocks like Shopify shone.
Despite weaker commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 350.8 points, or 1.25%, to 27,920.87, even with sectors mixed.
Telecoms lost near 1.1%, but both the Battery Metals Index and Info Tech gained near 5%.
Among individual stocks, shares in e-commerce software platform Shopify (SHOP.TO, SHOP) jumped 22% to $212.82, making it the biggest company by market capitalization on the TSX, after reporting second-quarter earnings beat this morning.
National Bank kept an Outperform rating but raised its target on the stock to US$180 from US$140, on a “solid” result with particular outperformance in GMV, and also on “strong” guidance, with targeted revenue growth in the mid-to-high 20%s (versus National Bank’s forecast 20.6%, and consensus 21.5%). National said the company is “executing across the board” and “remains a top pick.”
National Bank added: “The results and outlook are consistent with our investment thesis where we see the company executing on a number of growth opportunities (enterprise, scaling take rate, POS, international, and now B2B).
Interestingly, Shopify also noted it’s not seeing any (material) impact from macro uncertainties and has limited exposure to the [U.S]. removal of de minimis (Shopify’s exposure represents near 4% of global GMV).
Meanwhile, execution across all growth levers under operating leverage is helping drive profitability and cash flow.
Bottom line, we think it’s still early days for many of those growth opportunities, which is why the name remains one of our Top Picks.”
Elsewhere, Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating and raised its Shopify price target to US$160 from $115.
Of commodities, gold was steady midafternoon on Wednesday, despite a weaker dollar, remaining close to the metal’s record high.
Gold for December delivery was down $1.30 to US$3,433.40 per ounce.
The price of the metal remains near its July 22 record high of US$3,501.80 per ounce amid strong safe haven demand as the U.S. economy slows while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at the Sept. 17 meeting of its policy committee.
The CME Fed watch tool shows a 89.2% probability the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points at the meeting.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a fifth-straight session on Wednesday even as a report showed a larger than expected drop in U.S. inventories amid strong summer demand and U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order to impose 50% secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil, effective Aug.27.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed down $0.81 to settle at US$64.35 per barrel, the lowest since June 9, while October Brent oil was last seen down $0.82 to US$66.82.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stock buyers waded back into the market, with a rally in most big techs driving gains.
Short-dated Treasury yields fell on bets the Federal Reserve will soon be able to cut rates.
The dollar slid.
The impetus to buy the dip has rarely been this strong, with the S&P 500 up almost 1% after a brief slide this week.
The gauge has climbed an average 0.3% a day after a down session this year — on course for the second-best annual showing.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%.
Apple Inc. jumped 5.1%, with Donald Trump set to announce the firm will commit to a fresh $100 billion US investment as it seeks to avoid punishing tariffs on iPhones.
“Markets are thriving in a risk-on fashion today as investors shift their focus from volatile trade developments and lackluster economic data to robust corporate earnings,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“Apple’s announcement of a $100 billion domestic manufacturing investment is additionally propelling ‘animal spirits’.”
A soft $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries saw a muted response; with yields little changed at 4.22%.
The yield on two- year notes fell three basis points to 3.70%.
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said policymakers will probably need to adjust rates in coming months to prevent further weakness in the labor market.
Her Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari said an economic slowdown may make a rate cut appropriate in the near term.
Meantime, Trump told European allies he’s planning to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as soon as next week in another bid to bring peace between the two countries.
The US imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods over its ongoing purchases of Russian energy.
Sandy Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co. said market participants seem to be focused on companies and earnings, and drowning out the noise coming out of Washington.
“There are a lot of narratives to keep track of in today’s investing environment, but earnings remain the main catalyst for stocks,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“While pullbacks are possible — particularly due to macro-related influences and poor seasonality trends — those pullbacks will likely prove to be buying opportunities.”
Stocks remain buoyant as betting against the market momentum “feels almost irrational,” according to a macro trader at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The key point is that the market can’t look far enough. This is why it will ignore the recession risk,” Paolo Schiavone wrote.
Still, after the blistering rally in American equities, the Bloomberg Intelligence Market Pulse Index pushed to a “manic” reading last month, a sign that investor exuberance may be running too hot.
The measure combines six metrics like market breadth, volatility and leverage to deliver a reading on investor sentiment.
When it gets into overheated territory, returns tend to weaken in the following three months.
“While trade uncertainty and elevated valuations could be a modest headwind for equities in the near term, investors can consider ways to manage volatility while positioning for longer- term gains,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Those who are already allocated to equities in line with their strategic benchmarks should consider implementing short- term hedges, and those under allocated should prepare to add exposure on potential market dips, he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, issued an outlook for orders in the third quarter that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.
* Airbnb Inc. issued a better-than-expected outlook for the third quarter as it saw encouraging summer travel demand, but warned that growth rates may not keep up later this year due to tough year-ago comparisons.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said the chipmaker has seen positive signs in demand for all its products and is making progress on getting US government approval to return to the China market.
* Super Micro Computer Inc. slumped after lowering its fiscal- year revenue forecast, raising questions about sales and pricing pressures around powerful AI servers.
* McDonald’s Corp. sales picked up in the latest quarter, suggesting that pop culture-focused collaborations and budget meals are helping to offset diners’ economic anxiety.
* Walt Disney Co. disappointed Wall Street with a tepid full- year profit forecast, weighed down by its struggling movie and TV businesses.
* General Motors Co. has signed a deal with Texas-based Noveon Magnetics Inc. to secure rare-earth magnets for its full-size pickup trucks and SUVs, marking the third domestic supply contract the automaker has signed related to the critical trade dominated by China.
* Rivian Automotive Inc., an electric-vehicle maker, backed away from a key financial goal and warned of mounting losses, highlighting the pressure it’s facing from President Donald Trump’s tariffs and changes to US environmental rules.
* Uber Technologies Inc.’s rideshare division missed Wall Street estimates, disappointing investors who were looking for signs of more robust demand in its signature business.
* Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. is doubling down on its long-haul expansion with the first purchase of Boeing Co. widebody aircraft in a dozen years, while it struggles closer to home with its HK Express unit suffering from a sharp drop in regional demand.
* Snap Inc., the owner of the Snapchat photo-sharing app, acknowledged a slowdown in advertising revenue growth, due in part to a technical issue with its ad-buying tools earlier this year.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s sales showed the weakest growth in four years as the Danish drugmaker loses ground to Eli Lilly & Co. in the crucial US market for obesity medicines, underscoring the slowdown that prompted last week’s profit warning.
* Six Flags Entertainment Corp. tumbled after poor weather conditions limited attendance, leading the theme-park operator to slash its full year outlook.
* Mosaic Co., the world’s leading producer of two key crop fertilizers, sank as US tariffs led to fewer and costlier second-quarter phosphate sales.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.9%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
* Apple rose 5.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1657
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3358
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 147.18 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $115,291.2
* Ether rose 3% to $3,684.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.53%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.70%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.81%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $64.07 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,371.57 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Begin at once to live and count each separate day as a separate life. -Seneca, c. 4 BCE-65 CE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
August 5, 1914: The world’s first electric traffic light is installed in Cleveland, Ohio, based on James Hoge’s design patented later in 1918.
August 5, 1963: The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union signed a treaty in Moscow banning nuclear tests in the atmosphere, outer space and underwater. Go to article.

The mystery of Keanu Reeves’ missing watches
Six luxury timepieces were stolen from the “John Wick” actor in 2023. They’ve just been found — in Chile.

📸 Behind the scenes: Legendary music photographer Jim Marshall started taking pictures of the Grateful Dead in 1966. The resulting images are intimate and honest, reflecting the trust he built over the years. Take a look.

Michael J. Fox to appear on ‘Shrinking’
Harrison Ford, whose character on the Apple TV+ show also has Parkinson’s disease, described Fox’s presence on the set as “essential.”

4,000: That’s the age of a handprint that researchers discovered on a clay model used for offerings in an Ancient Egyptian tomb. 

Dormant volcano erupts in Russia for first time in around 500 years, days after magnitude 8.8 megaquake
Krasheninnikov volcano has erupted on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. This is the second volcano to erupt in the region following the magnitude 8.8 megaquake on July 30. Read More.

Cosmic rays could help support alien life on worlds outside the ‘Goldilocks zone’
A new study suggests that cosmic radiation could potentially provide the energy to kick-start extraterrestrial life deep beneath the surface of icy worlds like Mars, Europa and Enceladus.  Read More.

Watch a pod of orcas pretending to drown one of their own in macabre training session
Footage from the BBC’s new nature series “Parenthood” shows orcas practicing an important blue whale-hunting technique on each other. Read More.

No-sugar sweetener erythritol may pose risk to cells in the brain, study finds — here’s what to know
A popular zero-calorie sweetener could injure cells in the brain’s blood vessels, a lab study finds. Here’s what we know so far. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Frankfurt, Germany
A Mercedes Unimog van sits beneath overgrown vegetation on a parking spot in Bad Vilbel
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Staritsa, Russia
A circus performer prepares for Karandash-Fest, a street festival in western Russia
Photograph: Pavel Bednyakov/AP

Whitby, UK
Miniature steam engines at a traction engine rally on the North Yorkshire coast
Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 5^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44111.74	-61.90
		-0.14%
S&P 500	6299.19	-30.75
		-0.49%
NASDAQ	20916.55	-137.03
		-0.65%
TSX	27570.08	+549.65
		+2.03%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40549.54	+258.84
		+0.64%
HANG SENG	24902.53	+169.08
		+0.68%
SENSEX	80710.25	-308.47
		-0.38%
FTSE 100*	9142.73	+14.43
		+0.16%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.380	N/A
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.708	N/A
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2100	4.2159
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7802	4.8221

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7260	0.7253
US $	1.3774	1.3787

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5946	0.6271
US $	1.1576	0.8638

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3380.05	3298.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.16	67.33

Market Commentary:
The goal is to turn data into information, and information, and information into insight. -Carleton S. Fiorina, “Carly”, b. 1954.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 2% at 27,570.08 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 2.5% on April 11 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.9%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 179 of 212 shares rose, while 32 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 7.1%.
Kinross Gold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 12.0%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain two times. The next day, it declined 3% once and advanced 1.2% once
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0% below its 52-week high on July 30, 2025 and 27.3% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.38% compared with 7.40% in the previous session and the average of 6.34% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 203.8890| 5.6| 47/1
Information Technology | 118.3242| 4.4| 10/0
Financials | 103.5224| 1.2| 24/1
Energy | 43.9660| 1.0| 26/14
Industrials | 41.8620| 1.2| 22/7
Consumer Staples | 14.0553| 1.4| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 11.6011| 1.3| 9/0
Real Estate | 5.5387| 1.1| 17/1
Utilities | 3.5303| 0.3| 9/5
Health Care | 1.6813| 2.7| 3/0
Communication Services | 1.6739| 0.3| 3/2
Shopify | 98.2100| 7.1| 13.8| 14.5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 44.6200| 7.3| 78.2| 64.9
RBC | 25.5200| 1.5| -11.9| 3.9
TerraVest Capital | -1.1340| -6.5| 275.2| 39.7
Keyera | -1.2980| -1.9| 40.7| -2.5
Thomson Reuters | -2.2870| -0.9| -3.3| 19.2
(MT Newswires):
Canadian investors on Tuesday returned refreshed after a holiday long weekend by pushing the Toronto Stock Exchange up to a fresh record close, buoyed by data showing most Canadian exports to the United States remained duty free in June, even as National Bank warned the full impact of this year’s trade war is still to be seen.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the day up 549.65 points, or 2%, to 27,570.88, ending a three-day losing streak late last week that came after the index closed at a prior record 27,539.88 on July 29.
Most sectors were higher, led by Info Tech up 3% and then Health Care and Base Metals, both up 2.7%.
The Battery Metals Index was down near 0.7%.
As with most days of late, trade related comments and data were the main focus for investors.
Prime Minister Mark Carney had been keeping a pretty low profile since Aug. 1 when the Trump administration implemented a 35% tariff on Canadian goods entering the United States not already covered under the existing North American free trade agreement.
But Carney was shown on Canada’s CBC News on Tuesday afternoon taking questions in British Columbia on the federal government’s response to wildfires in that province and elsewhere, after detailing support for the Canadian softwood lumber industry.
During a press conference the Prime Minister said he has not spoken to U.S. President Trump in recent days, before adding they would speak when it makes sense to do so.
Carney was also asked would Canada impose retaliatory measures beyond those already in place and he noted 85% of trade with the U.S. right now is still tariff free.
The Prime Minister also announced federal government support for the Canadian softwood lumber industry with $700 million in loan guarantees and $500 million to help it diversify markets after the United States last month raised anti-dumping duties on imports of Canadian softwood.
In related data news, RBC noted Canada’s trade deficit widened to $5.9 billion in June from a $5.5 billion shortfall in May, but reportedly entirely due to a large “one-time high value” equipment imports from the United States to Newfoundland’s offshore oil production sector.
RBC said excluding a $2.1 billion jump in the equipment import component that contained those products, imports of goods would have declined by another 1.8% in June, and the trade deficit would have narrowed to $3.8 billion overall.
According to RBC, that large equipment purchase should not impact overall GDP estimates, saying the import increase will mechanically subtract from GDP, but should be offset by higher business equipment spending.
For RBC, the bottom line is that a “plunge” in Q2 Canadian export volumes is on track to substantially subtract from Canadian GDP in Q2 following a pre-tariff surge in Q1 when U.S. importers rushed to front-run tariffs.
But, the bank said, there was further “encouraging” evidence in June that an exemption for trade compliant with the USMCA/CUSMA free trade agreement is backstopping duty free access to the U.S. market for most Canadian exports.
RBC noted sector specific tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada of products like steel and aluminum and the non-U.S. content of finished motor vehicles are raising costs significantly for U.S. buyers, but the U.S.
Census Bureau reported 92% of Canadian exports to the U.S. crossed the border duty free in June, up slightly from 91% in May and 89% in April.
The bank also noted the average effective U.S. tariff rate on imports from Canada remained one of the lowest among U.S. trading partners at 2.4%, well-below the 8.9% average U.S. rate on all imports in June.
That effective tariff rate on imports from Canada will rise with an increase in the rate on products not compliant with the existing trade agreement between the two countries to 35% in August, up from 25% in June, but that increase applies to a relatively small share, RBC estimates near 6%, of exports to the United States that are not compliant.
“We,” RBC said, “continue to expect that current rules, if maintained as currently in place, would leave Canada with the lowest tariff rate of any major U.S. trade partner — putting Canadian exporters in a stronger relative position to compete for U.S. import market share than other countries.
The concern remains, though, that U.S. tariff hikes have been so large, and uncertainty so high surrounding their announcements, that U.S. economic growth will slow with negative implications for close U.S. trade partners like Canada.”
It added: “The total U.S. effective tariff rate on imports from all countries continued to rise in June, hitting its highest level since the 1940s, and there is early evidence that U.S. labour markets are softening as a result, particularly in the U.S. industrial sector where ties with the Canadian economy are extremely close.”
Meanwhile, Ethan Currie at National Bank, in noting the U.S. merchandise deficit continued to shrink in June, primarily the result of falling imports due to both earlier front-loading and higher costs in the form of tariffs.
With adjusted ‘reciprocal’ levies set to take hold starting Thursday, it’s no wonder two-way trade with the tariff capital of the world is dipping, he added.
Currie said while U.S.-assigned tariff rates have come down from their threatened April levels, they are still “massively inflated” relative to last year.
Indeed, he noted, the average effective tariff rate (AETR) resides at levels not seen since WWII.
“While we await ‘hard’ data via customs revenues and trade balances to settle on the 2025 figure, we estimate that the U.S. AETR is above 15% according to current policy.
This number remains fluid as trade behaviour adjusts and presumably, countries with more favourable tariffs may see relatively more U.S. business,” Currie added.
Outside of reciprocal levies, and court rulings which could challenge the imposition of such under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), sectoral tariffs remain very much in focus.
Fentanyl-related levies in Canada, Mexico, and China make trade deals for these partners a “unique case”, Currie noted.
“Thanks to the USMCA,” Currie said, “Canada’s exposure remains better than most, and the ‘headline’ 35% is not representative of the overall tariffs being paid.”
“Still,” he added, “we see punitive broad-based tariffs, if sustained, and associated uncertainty/volatility weighing on long-run domestic and global growth.
Clearly, this administration is more protectionist than Trump’s first time in office, which is clear when comparing customs duties. It’s also consistent with a stickier term premium.
However, it might not be so obvious when aligning equity and Greenback performance.
The full impact of this year’s trade war is still to be seen, in our view.”
Of commodities, gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar gave up early gains after the United States reported its trade deficit fell to a near two-year low in June as imports slowed.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $7.50 to US$3,433.30 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed lower for a fourth day as traders focus on rising supply and weaker demand as growth slows.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed down $1.13 to settle at US$65.16 per barrel, while October Brent oil was last seen down $1.06 to US$67.70.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks wiped out gains after data showed weakening US services amid sticky price pressures, raising concern about the Federal Reserve’s policy challenges.
Short-dated Treasuries underperformed.
Oil sank as Russia was said to mull an air-truce with Ukraine.
Following a rally that put S&P 500 on the brink of all-time highs, the equity benchmark lost steam.
A closely watched gauge of chipmakers slid more than 1%.
In late hours, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. gave a bullish revenue outlook.
A soft $58 billion sale of three-year notes kicked off a trio of US auctions this week.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.20%, while those on two-year notes rose four basis points to 3.72%“We expect further choppy trading to persist in the later stages of summer, especially as the path of interest-rate policy remains unknown and highly sensitive to incoming economic data,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
The US services sector stagnated as firms — faced with tepid demand and rising costs — reduced headcount.
Data out last week showed weaker-than-expected jobs data while inflation-adjusted consumer spending barely rose.
“It is difficult to see how price pressures will stick if employment is cooling,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“Demand is not going to be strong enough for households to absorb the price increase. This is why an insurance cut makes sense.”
President Donald Trump told CNBC that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he did not want to be nominated to replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair.
Trump also said that US tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports would be announced “within the next week or so.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services declined last month to 50.1, below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The employment index contracted. The group’s measure of prices paid for materials and services climbed to the highest since October 2022.
To Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, the inflation component was more troubling.
Nonetheless, the payrolls report has still paved the way for a September rate cut, he noted.
“The ISM services survey highlights the challenges for the Fed in the coming months, with the activity and employment indicators weakening even as the prices paid index rose to a new cyclical high,” said Alexandra Brown at Capital Economics.
The latest labor data is weak enough for the Fed to justify cutting interest rates, said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Her firm’s base case remains that the US central bank will resume rate cuts at the September meeting, with a total of 100 basis points of easing by early 2026.
​​​​​​​
‘Sticky Inflation Signs’
“Traders are continuing to speculate on the time of the Fed’s next rate cuts with sticky inflation signs weighed against weakening economic indicators,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
He also noted the S&P 500 outlook could start to deteriorate in the near-term amid warnings over sky-high valuations against a backdrop of weakening economy.
“Should worries about overstretched valuations start to weigh on a few high-flying tech names, most of which have been supported by their latest earnings results, then the major indices could start to show bearish signs,” he said.
Fast-money investors will likely reach full exposure to US equities by September, which could prompt them to sell stocks as they become vulnerable to downside market shocks, according to Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities.
At Jefferies, Andrew Greenebaum says the Fed could be poised to trigger a stock-market regime change that sees smaller companies perform better than mega-cap tech.
Data going back to 1990 show that the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index outperformed the traditional market-cap weighted version of the benchmark when the Fed is reducing rates.
Meantime, HSBC strategists boosted their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,400 points from 5,600, citing robust corporate earnings and easing policy uncertainty.
“The AI trade is powering the tech/AI cohort higher, while reduced policy uncertainty (namely tariffs) is fueling the ‘rest’ of the market,” the team led by Nicole Inui wrote.
“We have more confidence in the sustainability of the AI trade than further easing on policy uncertainty.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Two Chinese nationals were arrested this week on charges they sent tens of millions of dollars’ worth of advanced AI chips made by Nvidia Corp. to China in violation of US export restrictions, according to authorities.
* Tesla Inc. continues to post steep sales declines in Europe, where the Elon Musk-led automaker is ceding significant share to China’s BYD Co.
* Amazon.com Inc. plans to make OpenAI’s new open artificial intelligence models available to customers, the first time the cloud computing giant has offered products from the leading AI startup.
* President Donald Trump accused two of the nation’s largest banks of rejecting his business, as his administration was preparing an executive order threatening financial institutions who refused to work with certain customers on ideological grounds.
** Trump told CNBC he had been “informed by my people” that JPMorgan Chase & Co. had asked him to close accounts he held for decades within 20 days, and that Bank of America Corp. declined his attempt to deposit more than $1 billion with their company.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. forecast a larger adjusted loss this year than the electric vehicle maker expected previously, citing recent changes to stringent fuel economy rules in the US that threaten a key source of revenue.
* Amgen Inc. boosted its 2025 guidance after quarterly results beat Wall Street’s estimates on the back of strong sales from older medicines such as the cholesterol-lowering drug Repatha.
* The Trump’s administration proposed a rule to allow more commercial drones to fly beyond an operator’s visual line of sight, a potential boon for companies such as Alphabet Inc.’s Wing unit and Walmart Inc. pushing to deliver packages by autonomous aircraft.
* Caterpillar Inc. has given investors annual guidance for the first time on how much tariffs will impact the maker of iconic yellow diggers and bulldozers this year, as the Trump administration’s trade war deepens.
* Pfizer Inc. raised its profit forecast for the year, with the drugmaker’s ongoing cost cuts helping to make up for a lack of expected sales growth.
* Marriott International Inc. reported second-quarter earnings that beat expectations as the company’s global footprint made up for softening US demand.
* Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s experimental pain drug failed to provide post-surgery benefits and US regulators said they didn’t see a path forward for broad use of its pill in treating a chronic pain condition.
* Taiwan prosecutors arrested six people suspected of stealing trade secrets from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., opening an investigation into a potential breach of national security involving a global tech industry linchpin.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.6%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1573
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3296
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.61 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1% to $113,642.14
* Ether fell 3.5% to $3,571.97
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.20%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.52%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.72%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.77%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $65.14 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,379.14 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Looking behind I am filled with gratitude; looking forward I am filled with vision.
looking upwards I am filled with strength; looking within I discover peace.
                            Quero Apache prayer

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday.
Llamas: first harvest, Wicca.
August 1, 1834: Slavery is abolished across the British Empire as the Slavery Abolition Act 1833 comes into  force, freeing over 800,000 enslaved people.
August 1, 1789: US Customs established.
August 1, 1981: The music video channel MTV made its debut. Go to article.
August 1, 1990: World Wide Web established.

Herman Melville, writer, b. 1819.
Yves St. Laurent, designer, b. 1936.
Jerry Garcia, guitarist/vocalist, b. 1942.

Archaeologists discover 1,800-year-old Roman watchtower built to protect the empire during Marcus Aurelius’ reign
Archaeologists are excavating a Roman-era watchtower in Croatia that was “built in a strategic location” on the banks of the Danube River. Read More.

2,300-year-old arm tats on mummified woman reveal new insights about tattooing technique in ancient Siberia
A new analysis used near-infrared photography to shed light on the methods and tools for creating tattoos in the Early Iron Age Pazyryk culture. Read More.

Tomatoes randomly mated with another plant 9 million years ago. The result? Potatoes.
Researchers say they have finally uncovered the mysterious origins of one of our favorite carbs: the humble potato. Read More.

Lightning on Earth is sparked by a powerful chain reaction from outer space, simulations show
A new model may have finally solved where storm clouds get their missing energy. Read More.

Archaeologists race against time to explore shipwreck
Various threats could cause the remains of the English warship Northumberland to become unstable.

Ted Danson, Mary Steenburgen to receive special award at Emmys
The Hollywood couple will be honored for something other than their top-notch acting talents.

Want a perfect picture of the Dolomites for Instagram?
Prepare to pay for the right to take the shot.

IHOP pines for TikTok’s attention
The restaurant has created its most expensive stack of pancakes to woo fans who enjoy eating luxurious chocolate — and being on trend.

‘Houston, we have a problem.’ 
Thirty years after its original release, the blockbuster film “Apollo 13” is returning to movie theaters in a big way.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Cyclists speed around cows down the Cormet de Roseland pass during the 19th stage of the Tour de France which started in Albertville and finished in La Plagne.
Photograph: Mosa’ab Elshamy/AP
Tembisa, South Africa
Young ballet students Philasande Ngcobo and Yamihle Gwababa pose for a photograph outside the Mballet dance academy in Tembisa. The academy was created not just to teach ballet but to open doors in a community where resources are few and dreams often feel out of reach.
Photograph: Phill Magakoe/AFP/Getty Images

A butterfly rests on a bramble leaf in Dunsden, Oxfordshire, UK. Some spotters have seen an increase in butterflies this year
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock
Market Closes for Aug 1^st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43588.58	-542.40
		-1.23%
S&P 500	6238.01	-101.38
		-1.60%
NASDAQ	20650.13	-472.32
		-2.24%
TSX	27020.43	-239.35
		-0.88%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40799.60	-270.22
		-0.66%
HANG SENG	24507.81	-265.52
		-1.07%
SENSEX	80599.91	-585.67
		-0.72%
FTSE 100*	9068.58	-64.23
		-0.70%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.382	3.458
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.706	3.759
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2159	4.3740
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8221	4.9000

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7253	0.7217
US $	1.3787	1.3856

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5980	0.6257
US $	1.1590	0.8628

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3298.85	3304.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.33	69.26

Market Commentary:
I am wrong nine out of ten times but it is what I do in consequence of being right that has made my fortune. -George Soros, b. 1930.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.9%, or 239.35 to 27,020.43 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3% on April 10.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%.
Brookfield Renewable Partners LP had the largest drop, falling 6.7%.
Today, 145 of 212 shares fell, while 64 rose; all sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 1.7%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2% below its 52-week high on July 30, 2025 and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.41t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.40% compared with 6.80% in the previous session and the average of 6.17% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -83.8840| -0.9| 5/20
Information Technology | -72.4121| -2.6| 0/10
Energy | -34.8121| -0.8| 6/34
Industrials | -23.0177| -0.7| 6/22
Consumer Staples | -14.2224| -1.4| 1/9
Communication Services | -6.2862| -1.0| 3/2
Real Estate | -2.0290| -0.4| 5/12
Utilities | -1.4099| -0.1| 7/7
Health Care | -0.6208| -1.0| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.4375| 0.0| 4/5
Materials | -0.2312| 0.0| 26/22
Shopify | -48.8900| -3.4| 39.0| 7.0
Brookfield Corp | -27.0800| -2.9| 43.9| 9.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -16.7000| -2.6| -52.0| -3.7
TC Energy | 4.3620| 0.9| -67.7| -0.3
MDA Space | 5.4440| 18.4| 158.0| 55.5
Enbridge | 14.9400| 1.6| 15.8| 4.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday saw its losses for the last three sessions since Tuesday’s record close rise to near 500 points, as an “arbitrary” deadline for a trade agreement between Canada and the United States passed, leading to President Donald Trump applying a 35% tariff to many Canadian goods.
The S&P/TSX Composite index closed 239.35 points to 27,020.43, down from the Tuesday record close of 27,539.88.
Most sectors were in the red, led by Info Tech down near 2.3%.
The Battery Metals Index was one of the few gainers, up 0.3%.
On sectors, Rosenberg Research published a note titled ‘Our Big Picture Investment Themes’ which it said, “a screen of global equity markets points to increasing ex. U.S. exposure”.
It remains Underweight on the Energy sector but sees Canadian Utilities as “an attractive single-sector diversification strategy”.
Rosenberg Research said precious metals are “the pick” of the commodity space, noting gold “has tailwinds which should sustain the rally” and gold mining stocks “have a bright future”.
The research added precious metals like platinum, palladium, and rhodium “each face a complex supply picture, so we suggest different time horizons”, while silver is “set to post solid gains when it mean-reverts towards its typical relationship with gold”. According to Rosenberg Research, other gold-exposed financial assets are also “poised for a run”, while supply-demand imbalances in non-precious metals make it “bullish” on uranium, copper, graphite, lithium, and aluminum.
On trade, Canada has refused to roll over and accept whatever deal the Trump Administration was willing to offer it on trade ahead of a penciled in deadline of today.
CBC News on Friday afternoon carried an interview with Dominic LeBlanc, the Minister Responsible for Canada-U.S.
Trade, during which he said the Canadian federal government is “not going to accept any deal because of an arbitrary timeline” the Americans set.
He added his government continues to look for the best deal for Canada: “If yesterday afternoon that deal wasn’t clearly on the table, then we will continue to talk with the Americans.”
LeBlanc noted he has agreed to talk again with Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, over a phone next week.
The Canadian Press is reporting business groups are anxiously watching trade negotiations and don’t want the country to rush into a deal, but say the uncertainty is weighing on their members.
The report noted groups representing Canada’s small businesses, steel producers and more spent Friday hammering a unified message: “no deal is better than a bad deal”.
“A little more time now can deliver lasting benefits for an integrated North American economy – and that’s well worth the wait,” said Candace Laing, chief executive of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a statement.
In a bigger picture, but somewhat related note, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, published ‘Good Things May Come from Bad Payrolls’ in which he noted the U.S. job market is “suddenly weaker than previously thought” after today’s nonfarm payrolls.
Holt in the summary noted negative revisions for May and June were the biggest since the pandemic first struck.
“Trump administration policies are likely at fault,” he said, before adding later in his note: “So what really caused the revisions to seasonally unadjusted payrolls in May and June? That’s unclear.
But it’s possible that amid the turmoil that has employers scrambling to deal with the effects of rapid change to trade, immigration, fiscal and other policies, that data quality is being further impaired by low response rates.”
Holt noted markets assumed the Fed will rapidly shift toward easing interest rates on the back of numbers like these, that showed a negative revision to job growth in May and June that totaled 258,000 positions. But he said “the bigger policy pivot may have to be made by the Trump administration”.
Perhaps, Holt said, some good may come of it. “To date,” he added, “markets and fundamentals have not shown enough of an impact of soaring policy uncertainty.
That may be changing.
If so, then along with the ongoing court challenge against Trump’s tariffs, this may be the best hope to restore some sense of reason within the US administration in terms of the toxic effects of its trade policies on the world and US economies.
All along, the best hope for pushing back against US tariffs as they went globally has been to exact a toll on the US itself.”
Holt’s comments came before President Trump directed his team to “immediately” fire Dr.
Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whom he accused of manipulating the monthly jobs reports for “political purposes”.
Of commodities today, gold was sharply higher late afternoon on Friday as the dollar and yields plunged after the U.S. reported new hiring rose less than expected in July, while estimates for job growth in May and June were cut by a quarter-million positions as the country’s economy slows under President’s Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $62.20 to US$3,410.80 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower as investors shed risk assets after fresh U.S. tariffs and a weak U.S. jobs report raised worries over slowing global growth.
WTI crude oil closed down $1.93 to settle at US$67.33 per barrel, while October Brent oil was down $2.05 to US$69.65.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw a broad flight from risk assets, with stocks sinking amid mounting signs of job-market weakness, President Donald Trump’s latest volley of tariffs and geopolitical worries.
Short-term Treasury yields plunged the most since 2023 on bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates.
The S&P 500 sank 1.6%, the most since May.
An uninspiring outlook from Amazon.com Inc. spurred a rout in mega caps.
A closely watched volatility gauge – the VIX – topped 20.
Two-year yields tumbled 28 basis points to 3.68%.
The dollar snapped a six-day advance.
Gold climbed as Trump said the US is moving two nuclear submarines to respond to “provocative” statements from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Job growth cooled sharply, and the unemployment rate rose, with payrolls increasing 73,000 in July after the prior two months were revised down by nearly 260,000.
In the last three months, employment growth has averaged a paltry 35,000.
Money markets fully priced in two rate cuts in 2025, with a 90% chance of a reduction in September.
“What had looked like a Teflon labor market showed some scratches this morning,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“A Fed that still appeared hesitant to lower rates may see a clearer path to a September cut, especially if data over the next month confirms the trend.”
The pullback in stocks marked a sharp reversal for markets that had raced to record highs on the back of resilient economic growth, signs of cooling inflation, and a frenzy for AI-linked shares.
With valuations elevated, traders are now confronting a harsher backdrop amid renewed debate over how quickly the Fed might be forced to cut rates.
“The debate now is whether the White House was right, and the Fed was too late,” said Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“The Fed was probably right to wait, but job growth and the economy is slowing from a blistering rate.”
Trump told officials to fire Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hours after a report showed US job growth cooled sharply.
“The US public statistics represent the gold standard,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“Calling them into question because they tell you something you don’t like undercuts market confidence.”
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, speaking on Bloomberg Television after the numbers came out, said the labor market still looked healthy — though it was a “disappointing report to be sure.”
Ahead of the data, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman issued statements explaining why they dissented Wednesday from the decision to hold rates steady, expressing concerns that hesitance to cut rates could risk unnecessary damage to the labor market.
Trump said Fed Chair Jerome Powell should be put “out to pasture” and called on the central bank’s board to “assume control” if rates were not lowered.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will step down from her position on the central bank’s board, handing Trump a sooner- than-anticipated opportunity to install a new policymaker who aligns with his vision for rates.
To Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the jobs miss directly challenges the Fed’s hawkish posture from this week’s meeting.
“Just two days after the conclusion of this month’s Fed meeting, suddenly the dual mandate is back on the table,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“The Fed will again need to balance a slowing job market with inflation which isn’t slowing fast enough.”
Today’s report provides the evidence the Fed needs to make a September rate adjustment, so the only question is how large that will be, according to Rick Rieder at BlackRock.
“September is a lock for a rate cut — and it might even be a 50-basis point move to make up the lost time,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
At eToro, Bret Kenwell says the most-obvious question is: How would the Fed handle a slowdown in the labor market alongside a rise in inflation?
“While neither is at an extreme right now, inflation is moving higher and the labor market is losing steam,” he said.
“When push comes to shove, the Fed would likely step in by easing financial conditions if the labor market truly begins to deteriorate, but it may not be as fast or as accommodating if inflation remains stubbornly high.”
To Marvin Loh at State Street Global Markets, the latest jobs data signal what a tough balancing act the Fed has given that wages are still growing at a decent clip and tariffs are still a major uncertainty.
Four months after Trump shocked the world by unveiling a placard full of tariff rates, his revisions Thursday left investors scrambling to grasp the full impacts of those levies.
At an average of 15%, the world is still facing some of the steepest US tariffs since the 1930s, roughly six times higher than they were a year ago.
“Our base case remains that the US effective tariff rate should settle at around 15% by the end of the year, and the economic impact is likely to prove manageable,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Still, tariffs are a headwind for global trade and growth, and they have started to contribute to a rise in inflation.”
With markets already pricing in much of the good news on the trade front, she expects stock volatility to pick up in the near term.

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc. projected weaker-than-expected operating income and trailing the sales growth of its cloud rivals, leaving investors searching for signs that the company’s huge investments in artificial intelligence are paying off.
* Apple Inc. reported its fastest quarterly revenue growth in more than three years, easily topping Wall Street estimates, after demand picked up for the iPhone and products in China.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. posted better-than- expected results after record oil production cushioned the impact of lower crude prices.
* Eli Lilly & Co. gained after a report that Medicaid and some Medicare drug plans will experiment with covering expensive weight-loss drugs, a sign the Trump administration is reconsidering its position against expanding coverage of these treatments.
* Moderna Inc.’s cost-cutting efforts failed to assuage investors who are worried about the decline of its Covid vaccine business.
* Kleenex-owner Kimberly-Clark Corp. is making inroads with cost-conscious US consumers, as lower-priced household goods items and surging volume helped it beat second-quarter earnings expectations.
* Reddit Inc. reported its most-profitable quarter to date and projected third-quarter sales that far surpassed analyst expectations, signaling the strength of its growing advertising business.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 3.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.9%
* The euro rose 1.4% to $1.1571
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3262
* The Japanese yen rose 2.2% to 147.43 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $113,237.39
* Ether fell 5.8% to $3,516.39
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 16 basis points to 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.68%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.53%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.8% to $67.31 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.1% to $3,357.53 an ounce

–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova, Vildana Hajric, Lu Wang and Julien Ponthus.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Life’s a voyage that’s homeward bound. –Herman Melville, 1819-1891.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
July 31^st, 1914: The New York Stock Exchange closed due to the outbreak of World War I. (Trading didn’t resume until December.) Go to article.
July 31,1991: The US and USSR sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty 9STARTI), capping deployed nuclear weapons and easing Cold War tensions.

Milton Friedman, economist, b.1912.
J.K Rowling, writer, b. 1965.
1790: US Patent office opens.

Russian volcano explodes in ‘powerful’ eruption, likely intensified by 8.8 magnitude earthquake
Klyuchevskoy volcano in Russia erupted shortly after a powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake in the same region. Read More.

Sticky goo in 2,500-year-old bronze jars finally identified, settling 70-year debate
A cutting-edge chemical analysis of a mystery substance that had stymied experts for 70 years finally revealed its identity. Read More.

‘It was so unexpected’: 90 billion liters of meltwater punched its way through Greenland ice sheet in never-before-seen melting event
A previously-undetected flood over Greenland’s ice sheet has confounded model predictions about how the region’s meltwater should leak. Read More.

‘Universal’ cancer vaccine heading to human trials could be useful for ‘all forms of cancer’
A new mRNA-based vaccine triggers a response from the innate immune system to help arm the body against cancer, a mouse study finds. It’s now in early human trials. Read More.

Google has turned 2 billion smartphones into a global earthquake warning system — it’s as effective as seismometers, tests show
Google’s earthquake early-warning system has used phone accelerometers on Android devices to increase quake alerts by tenfold across 98 countries. Read More.

‘South Park’ breaks record dating back to 1999
Nearly 6 million people watched the cartoon’s season premiere last week, which featured ruthless and profane commentary about President Trump.

Peanut butter and chocolate? Yes, please.
Oreo and Reese’s are collaborating on a new candy and what might be the perfect cookie.

Think round, not rectangular 
As hurricanes become more frequent and destructive, one company is building round, aerodynamic houses that are more storm-resistant.

Radioactive wasp nest discovered in South Carolina
The nest was found on a post near tanks where liquid nuclear waste is stored.

Starbucks shuts down entire line of cafes
The pick-up only stores encouraged customers to order via their mobile app and not linger.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Yogyakarta, Indonesia
A local artist, Hangno Hartono, sits near an alien figure during the Indonesia UFO festival
Photograph: Dita Alangkara/AP

Whiterocks beach, County Antrim, UK
‘A touring cyclist on the beach, with Dunluce Castle in the background.’
Photograph: James Hamill

Worcestershire, UK
‘As our third heatwave came to an end, I stopped a while to watch the soft refreshing rain through the kitchen window.’
Photograph: Lynne Falconer
Market Closes for July 31^st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44130.98	-330.30
		-0.74%
S&P 500	6339.39	-23.51
		-0.37%
NASDAQ	21122.45	-7.22
		-0.03%
TSX	27259.78	-110.18
		-0.40%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41069.82	+415.12
		+1.02%
HANG SENG	24773.33	-403.60
		-1.60%
SENSEX	81185.58	-296.28
		-0.36%
FTSE 100*	9132.81	-4.13
		-0.05%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.458	3.481
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.759	3.791
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3740	4.3700
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9000	4.8989

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7217	0.7231
US $	1.3856	1.3827

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5830	0.6317
US $	1.1423	0.8754

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3304.30	3316.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.26	70.00

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1914, with war raging in Europe, the New York Stock Exchange closed and stayed shut for another four and a half months to allow the chaotic market to settle.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 110.18 to 27,259.78 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 16.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 141 of 212 shares fell, while 69 rose.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.8%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest drop, falling 7.7%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.5%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.9%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on July 30, 2025 and 25.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 1.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.80% compared with 6.69% in the previous session and the average of 6.14% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -38.6147| -0.4| 8/17
Industrials | -26.0700| -0.8| 6/23
Information Technology | -25.4334| -0.9| 1/9
Energy | -20.3804| -0.5| 8/32
Consumer Staples | -6.8547| -0.7| 3/7
Real Estate | -4.0082| -0.8| 4/15
Communication Services | -3.0190| -0.5| 1/4
Utilities | -2.3609| -0.2| 5/8
Health Care | -1.6055| -2.5| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | 0.4744| 0.1| 4/5
Materials | 17.6962| 0.5| 28/19
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -19.0600| -2.8| 125.1| -2.1
RBC | -12.6600| -0.7| -16.8| 2.6
Constellation Software | -11.2800| -1.7| 78.5| 7.5
Kinross Gold | 6.9690| 3.8| 70.9| 66.1
Enbridge | 7.6220| 0.8| -15.4| 2.9
TC Energy | 8.2870| 1.8| -44.4| -1.2
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second day on Thursday, bringing losses since Tuesday’s record high to near 270 points amid uncertainty that Canada and the United States will achieve an agreement on trade tomorrow’s deadline.
Not helped today by lower commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 110.18 points to 27,259.78, adding to the near 160 points lost Wednesday, when it dropped from Tuesday’s record close.
Among sectors, most were lower with the Battery Metals Index down 4%, Health Care down 2.7% and Energy down 1.2%.
Base Metals was up near 1.2%.
Just hours away from an Aug. 1 deadline, the United States and Canada remain locked in talks to resolve a brewing trade dispute.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday it is “possible” the two nations won’t reach an agreement before Friday, while U.S. President Donald Trump earlier Thursday agreed to extend talks with Mexico by 90 days, raising the prospect of a similar outcome for the Canadians.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, has said U.S. trade talks with Canada have involved the level of aluminum tariffs as some U.S. manufacturers, most notably Ford Motor, are dealing with a financial hit.
According to The WSJ, the Treasury secretary’s remarks Thursday signal possible relief for Canada’s aluminum sector, which, along with steel makers, faces a 50% tariff on their U.S. exports.
It noted Canada is the U.S.’s biggest foreign supplier of both metals, and the deals President Trump has made to date have maintained the 50% duty of steel and aluminum.
Of commodities today, gold edged lower midafternoon even as the dollar rose after a key U.S. inflation measure climbed in June and a day after the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank will hold off on interest-rate cuts as it assesses the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $5.30 to US$3,347.50 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling off a five-week high after an unexpected rise in U.S oil inventories and despite fresh sanction threats on Russian supply from the Trump Administration.
WTI crude for September delivery closed down $0.74 to settle at US$69.26 per barrel, falling off the highest since June 20, while September Brent oil was last seen down $0.73 to US$72.51.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in stocks sputtered ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline, with the White House demanding drugmakers to slash US prices.
Treasuries and the dollar barely budged in the run-up to the jobs report.
The S&P 500 erased a 1% advance for the first time since April.
Trump sent letters to 17 of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” hit all-time highs as Microsoft Corp.
briefly topped $4 trillion while Meta Platforms Inc. jumped 11% on solid results.
In late hours, Amazon.com Inc.’s profit forecast underwhelmed investors.
“While we expect equities to advance over the next 12 months, investors should be mindful of potential market swings in the coming weeks,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We think capital preservation or phasing-in strategies can be effective in navigating near-term volatility.”
Trump will sign an executive order imposing new tariff rates on trading partners that take effect Friday.
He has struck deals with the European Union, the UK, Japan and South Korea, and unilaterally set rates on other nations, including India and Brazil.
In addition, Trump is bringing in bank leaders to meet with him one by one at the White House.
He’s asking chief executive officers for their pitches on monetizing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, including a major public offering of stock, according to people familiar with the matter.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.36%.
The dollar rose at the end of its best month in 2025.
The yen slid as comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda were seen as less hawkish than expected.
In the run-up to jobs data, the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation accelerated in June to one of the fastest paces this year while consumer spending barely rose, underscoring the dueling forces dividing policymakers over the path of rates.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% from May.
It advanced 2.8% on an annual basis, a pickup from June 2024 that underscores limited progress on taming inflation in the past year.
The data also showed inflation-adjusted consumer spending edged up last month.
“Inflation remains sticky and justifies the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
“The stock market doesn’t need rate cuts in order to move higher and has already posted strong gains so far this year without any rate cuts.”
As with so many things in the economy, the situation is very fluid and we have yet to see the full impact of tariffs flowing through to inflation, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“We are priced for perfection as they say, and that is a risk, but one that will likely be ignored by the market as long as corporate profits are still growing,” he said.
Separate data Thursday showed initial applications for unemployment insurance were little changed last week.
Another report showed labor cost growth rose 3.6% from a year ago, matching the lowest since 2021, reassuring Fed officials that the job market isn’t a source of inflationary pressure.
The market’s attention will soon turn to Friday’s jobs report for July, which is forecast to show companies are becoming more deliberate in their hiring.
Employment likely moderated after a June increase, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 4.2%.
President Trump resumed his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank declined to cut interest rates, ending a short-lived détente.
Trump’s comments come after Fed officials left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but downgraded their view of the US economy, signaling that policymakers could be edging closer to lowering borrowing costs.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google lost its appeal of a judge’s order requiring an overhaul of the technology giant’s app store policies in an antitrust case filed by Fortnite-maker Epic Games Inc.
* Figma Inc. shares jumped 250% in their public debut after the design software maker and some of its shareholders raised $1.2 billion in an IPO, with the trading valuing the company far above the $20 billion mark it would have reached in a now-scrapped merger with Adobe Inc.
* Boeing Co. has resumed contract talks with leaders of the union representing some 3,200 factory workers in the St. Louis area, after members resoundingly rejected its initial offer and voted to strike.
* A judge in California ordered Phillips 66 to pay an additional $195 million in punitive damages on top of an earlier $604.9 million trade secret theft verdict for what he called “reprehensible” conduct that nearly destroyed a much smaller fuel company.
* Mastercard Inc. reported earnings that topped analysts’ estimates and gave a more optimistic forecast for this year’s revenue on continued momentum in consumer spending.
* Moderna Inc. is cutting about 10% of its workforce, part of an effort by the struggling biotech company to reduce spending as sales of its Covid vaccine decline.
* Bristol Myers Squibb Co. slid as investors questioned whether the drugmaker has done enough to spur future sales growth in the face of an aging drug portfolio, even after lifting its full-year guidance and beating Wall Street’s quarterly sales and profit estimates.
* A trial of Eli Lilly & Co.’s blockbuster diabetes drug Mounjaro fell short of expectations that it would do a better job of preventing heart attacks and strokes than its older medicine Trulicity.
* Biogen Inc. raised its full-year financial guidance as growing sales of its Alzheimer’s drug helped the biotech company beat Wall Street’s expectations.
* CVS Health Corp. raised its 2025 profit guidance on strong results in its health insurance and pharmacy businesses, an encouraging sign after a spate of missteps by rival insurers.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1413
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3206
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 150.80 per dollar
* The Mexican peso was little changed at 18.8631
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $116,780
* Ether fell 0.9% to $3,737.04
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.36%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.57%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.94%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $69.18 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,291.21 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The wise does at once what the fool does at last. –Baltasar Gracián, 1601-1658.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 30, 1930: Uruguay defeats Argentina to win the first FIFA World Cup, hosted in Montevideo and watched by over 90,000 spectators.
July 30, 1975: Former Teamsters union president Jimmy Hoffa disappeared in suburban Detroit. (His remains have never been found.) Go to article.
1935: Paperback books introduced for the first time.

Emily Bronte, writer, b. 1818.
Henry Moore, sculptor, b.1848.
Henry Ford, industrialist, b. 1863.
Arnold Swarzenegger, actor, b.1947.

Russia earthquake: Magnitude 8.8 megaquake hits Kamchatka, generating tsunamis across the Pacific
The 8.8 magnitude megaquake is the joint-sixth largest earthquake ever recorded and the first tsunami waves have already hit Oahu, Hawaii. Read More.

4,000-year-old handprint discovered on ancient Egyptian tomb offering
Researchers have unveiled an ancient Egyptian handprint that was left on a soul house tomb offering 4,000 years ago. Read More.

400-mile-long chain of fossilized volcanoes discovered beneath China
Researchers recently discovered a huge chain of extinct volcanoes buried deep below South China that formed when two tectonic plates collided during the breakup of Rodinia,
around 800 million years ago. Read More.

Scientists use quantum machine learning to create semiconductors for the first time – and it could transform how chips are made
Researchers have found a way to make the chip design and manufacturing process much easier — by tapping into a hybrid blend of artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

Australia reverses course on YouTube
The country’s government has decided to include the world’s largest video platform in its ban on social media for children under 16.
Ozzy Osbourne’s last ride
The “Crazy Train” singer’s funeral procession will travel through Birmingham — his hometown in England — today.

Billy Joel sets the record straight
The 76-year-old singer has been in a few car accidents, but not for the reason many people believe.

A cabal of furry thieves snatch iPhones and other valuables from visitors to a temple in Bali—and trade them for mangos.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cabarete, Dominican Republic
‘Tropic thunder (and lightning).’
Photograph: Jon Nakkerud

Faaborg, Denmark
‘A mural depicting the importance of water in this beautiful port town.’
Photograph: Robert Boon

Guanajuato, Mexico
‘A beautifully colourful hillside.’
Photograph: Alan Wright
Market Closes for July 30^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44461.28	-171.71
		-0.38%
S&P 500	6362.90	-7.96
		-0.12%
NASDAQ	21129.67	+31.38
		+0.15%
TSX	27369.96	-169.92
		-0.62%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40654.70	-19.85
		-0.05%
HANG SENG	25176.93	-347.52
		-1.36%
SENSEX	81481.86	+143.91
		+0.18%
FTSE 100*	9136.94	+0.62
		+0.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.481	3.473
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.791	3.791
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3700	4.3204
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8989	4.8563

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7231	0.7260
US $	1.3827	1.3774

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5792	0.6332
US $	1.1421	0.8755

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3316.50	3305.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.00	69.21

Market Commentary:
If you would know the value of money, go and try to borrow some. –Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 27,369.96 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 154 of 212 shares fell, while 57 rose.
Intact Financial Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.5%.
Capital Power Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.9%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.4% above, its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.46t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.69% compared with 6.31% in the previous session and the average of 6.11% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -77.1146| -2.1| 0/48
Financials | -57.2551| -0.6| 4/21
Information Technology | -17.6105| -0.6| 4/6
Energy | -8.3020| -0.2| 11/29
Industrials | -6.9902| -0.2| 13/15
Consumer Staples | -2.0016| -0.2| 1/9
Health Care | -1.4883| -2.2| 0/3
Communication Services | -1.0598| -0.2| 1/4
Consumer Discretionary | -0.4076| 0.0| 4/5
Real Estate | 0.6362| 0.1| 9/10
Utilities | 1.6755| 0.2| 10/4
Intact Financial | -24.6400| -6.5| 274.5| 9.1
Shopify | -13.8800| -1.0| 3.1| 11.3
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -11.0100| -1.8| -10.9| 51.8
Bank of Nova Scotia| 3.5710| 0.5| -21.0| 0.4
RBC | 4.5490| 0.3| -35.4| 3.3
TD Bank | 5.9020| 0.5| -28.5| 33.0
(MT Newswires):
(Includes commentary on the Bank of Canada from Macquarie Group)
The Toronto Stock Exchange dropped nearly 160 points from record high levels Wednesday, likely on some profit taking, but also as one economist suggested Bank of Canada officials “haven’t a clue what to do next” after they left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected, today, while also leaving the door ajar for a possible rate cut to come this year.
The TSX closed down 169.92 points or 0.6% at 27,369.96.
This after it posted a record close of 27,539.88 on Tuesday.
Most sectors were lower, led by Base Metals (-3.2%) and Health Care (-2.6%).
Utilities made a modest gain.
It wasn’t just uncertainty around the outlook for rates that weighed on the TSX.
Trade uncertainties were also a negative factor.
On Wednesday afternoon, ahead of an August 1 deadline for a deal, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order that adds a 50% tariff on certain copper imports from Friday.
But, according to Canada’s CBC News, the levy does not apply to copper concentrate, with Canadians accounting for 99% of all copper concentrate imported by its bigger North America neighbor.
This comes as tariffs on a range of Canadian product are slated to rise to 35% from 25% as of Friday, But the tariffs will not apply to goods that are compliant with the Canada-U.S. trade agreement, which is up for renewal next year.
Sectors including aluminum and steel, and autos, have been threatened with tariffs.
CBC cited RBC as saying near 90% of the value of Canadian exports to the U.S. qualify for an exemption from tariffs.
On rates, the BoC held the overnight rate steady for a third consecutive meeting, while leaving the door open to future cuts.
The overnight rate has remained at 2.75% since March, after seven consecutive rate cuts lowered it from last year’s peak of 5%.
For his part, Derek Holt, Vice-President & Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, said a “lack of any useful forward guidance and continued avoidance of a base case forecast in favor of three scenarios now versus two back in the prior MPR [Monetary Policy Report] in April basically said they haven’t a clue what to do next”.
He added: “I don’t find we learned anything new whatsoever about the policy bias from this set of communications.”
Despite recent decisions to hold, RBC’s Claire Fan said past rate cuts from the BoC are likely still taking time to support the economy.
But with mortgage rates mostly stabilizing near or above origination back in 2020-2021 origination levels, the effect on households is more like easing off the brakes than pressing on the gas, she added.
“Today,” Fan said, “the car is in neutral, and the outlook is still hazy.
Tariffs in place today have been less severe than feared but Canada as one of the largest trade partners to the U.S., remains particularly vulnerable to protectionist U.S. trade policies.
In two days, the latest U.S. self-imposed trade negotiation deadline could result in escalated tariffs beyond today’s targeted but relatively limited levels.”
According to Fan, a significantly more negative outlook, one that resembles spring, remains a downside risk.
Fan said while the BoC projects inflation will rise in that kind of a scenario as tariff impacts outweigh economic weakness, further rate cuts would be appropriate if it became clear that the economy was sliding into recession.
“Barring such deterioration and following our base case, we expect the BoC will maintain current rates going forward,” she added.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, noted ongoing uncertainty and recent elevated underlying inflation readings featured prominently in the BoC’s decision.
He also noted forward guidance continued to suggest the potential for a cut ahead is still couched in data dependence.
“Looking ahead, the outlook is uncertain. Market pricing for cuts moderated slightly on the announcement and have been broadly lessening since late March,” Doyle said.
Doyle noted Governor Macklem struck a similar tone in his press conference as he did in June, emphasizing that elevated uncertainty means the BoC is putting more weight on risks and taking a shorter time horizon than usual.
He echoed the key forward guidance line from the statement, indicating that “if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.”
In describing the economy, he indicated that while excess supply has increased since January, there has been resilience thus far.
Macquarie’s forecast is that there will be greater economic weakness in the second half of 2025 than implied by the BoC’s current tariff scenario and a moderation in underlying inflation.
This leads it to anticipate about 50 bps in further cuts with these most likely to occur in October and December.
“Should growth hold in better than we anticipate and underlying inflation remain firm, however, the BoC is likely to continue to stay the course,” Doyle added.
Of commodities, gold moved lower midafternoon Wednesday ahead of the end to the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee that, as expected, left U.S. interest rates unchanged, while reports showed the U.S. economy rose at a faster than expected pace in the second quarter.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $27.70 to US$3,353.50 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, climbing for a third session even as a report showed an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.79 to settle at US$70.00 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up $0.68 to US$73.19. Price: 27369.96, Change: -169.92, Percent Change: -0.6
US
By Rita Nazareth and Lu Wang
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s hopes the Federal Reserve would signal imminent rate cuts went mostly unfulfilled Wednesday, with stocks and bonds down to cap an otherwise bumper month for risk assets.
In late hours, Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. jumped after their results.
An initially calm investor reaction was broken when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said no decision has been made about easing policy in September.
The US labor market “looks solid,” he said, while inflation remains above target, statements traders interpreted as working against the case for an imminent rate cut.
Equities erased gains, with the S&P 500 down 0.1%. US two- year yields climbed seven basis points to 3.93%.
While the concerted pullback in stocks and bonds looked mild, it marked tumbled as President Donald Trump’s tariffs excluded the refined metal.
While Trump has pressed for an immediate rate cut, investors in risk assets have largely tempered expectations for a Fed pivot anytime soon.
Instead, they’re leaning on resilient economic growth, an AI-fueled earnings boom, and the belief that tariffs will only trigger manageable goods inflation while leaving services inflation contained.
And even though declines in stocks and bonds reflected revisions to market expectations, they came amid another deliberate effort by Powell to characterize the central bank as in a good position to assess the economy as it develops.
Even as both he and the Fed’s communique signaled a slight slowdown in growth Powell repeatedly said policy makers have ample time to assess the impact of Trump’s evolving tariff policy and other data going forward.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-2 on Wednesday to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, as they have at each of their meetings this year.
Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted against the decision in favor of a quarter-point cut.
“It appears the Fed will remain data dependent going into its next meeting,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“To get that rate cut, the Fed will need to gain confidence that either inflation increases will be one-off and muted, or that inflation will continue to trend lower in the months and quarters ahead.
That’s assuming we don’t see a notable deterioration in the labor market.”
Money markets pared bets on rate reductions this year and traders now see a less than 50% chance of a cut in September.
The odds for a reduction in October dropped to around 85%, whereas it was fully priced-in before Powell began to speak.
“The next two months’ data will be pivotal, and we see a path to a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle in the autumn should tariff inflation prove more modest than expected or the labor market show signs of weakness,” said Ashish Shah at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
US companies stepped up hiring in July, though the pace remained consistent with weaker labor demand.
Private-sector payrolls increased by 104,000, according to ADP Research data.
The median economist estimate called for a 76,000 gain.
The July employment report due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes government positions, is expected to show job growth moderated and unemployment rose.
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased an annualized 3% in the second quarter, according to preliminary government data out Wednesday.
As solid as the pace was, economic growth averaged 1.25% in the first half, a percentage point cooler than the pace for 2024.
The S&P 500, coming off its best streak of gains since 2020, is about to enter what has historically been its toughest stretch of the year.
Over the past three decades, the benchmark has performed the worst in August and September, losing 0.7% on average in each month, compared with a 1.1% gain on average across other months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Though equities have likely not peaked this year, we see limited upside given the historically high multiples at which market-leading stocks are trading, according to Chris Brigati at SWBC.
“We are entering a seasonal period of weakness for the market suggesting a fall pullback may be on the horizon before the next move toward higher stock prices in 2026,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Palo Alto Networks Inc. agreed to buy CyberArk Software Ltd. in a cash-and-stock deal valuing the Israeli cybersecurity company at about $25 billion.
* Humana Inc. raised its profit guidance for the year, bucking a trend in the US health insurance industry after most other companies cut their forecasts in recent months.
* Harley-Davidson Inc. said tariffs crimped profits in the second quarter as high borrowing costs sapped demand and forced the motorcycle manufacturer to cut production.
* Kraft Heinz Co. used price increases to help offset volume declines as the company continues a strategic review of its brands.
* Hershey Co. lowered its full-year profit guidance in part on tariff costs but is hopeful that the Trump administration will offer relief for products, like cocoa, that can’t be grown in the US.
* Starbucks Corp. sales and profit fell more than anticipated, signaling that a plan to revive growth by speeding up service and making cafes more welcoming has yet to bear fruit.
* Visa Inc., the world’s biggest payments network, left its earnings outlook unchanged for the rest of the fiscal year.
* SoFi Technologies Inc., a provider of consumer financial services, said it’s selling $1.5 billion of stock.
* Tesla Inc. agreed to buy $4.3 billion worth of US-built batteries from LG Energy Solution Ltd., a person familiar with the matter said, in a deal that should eventually boost the carmaker’s slowing energy storage business.
* Airbus SE reported a bigger-than-expected cash outflow in the first half as a shortage of engines for its bestselling A320neo jet delayed deliveries of new aircraft.
* Bunge Global SA’s second-quarter profits fell to the lowest in seven years as lingering uncertainty over tariffs and US biofuel policy continued to pressure crop traders and processors.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
* The euro fell 1.1% to $1.1424
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3246
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 149.40 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $116,904.97
* Ether fell 0.1% to $3,759.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.37%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.93%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $70.40 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,270.81 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can’t build a reputation on what you are going to do. -Henry Ford, 1863-1947.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Olsok: Commemoration Day today for Viking King Olaf, Norway.
July 29, 1914: Transcontinental telephone service began with the first phone conversation between New York and San Francisco.  Go to article
July 29, 1958: The United States creates NASA, centralizing civilian space exploration and marking a new era in the space race.

Welcome to the Grocery Store Where Prices Change 100 Times a Day:

Electronic shelf labels are spreading at grocery chains in Europe and the U.S., enabling instant price drops—and raising fears of surge pricing.

‘Time travel’ memory hack rejuvenates memories, study finds
A new study suggests that recalling the context in which a memory was made can help to restore the memory after it has started to erode. Read More.

NASA spacecraft snaps images of lunar transit and Earth eclipse on the same day — see the photos
The Solar Dynamics Observatory saw a lunar transit and an Earth eclipse on July 25 — the first when the moon passed between it and the sun, and another when Earth did the same. Read More.

Ancient shark discovered deep inside world’s longest cave system
The National Park Service has announced another ancient shark discovery at Mammoth Cave in Kentucky. The latest find, named Macadens olsoni, had a unique curved row of teeth and lived around 340 million years ago. Read More.

Scientists hit quantum computer error rate of 0.000015% — a world record achievement that could lead to smaller and faster machines
The record-breaking achievement could lead to practical, utility-scale quantum computers that are both smaller and faster. Read More.

Luminous star may have a hidden companion
Using an instrument on the Gemini North telescope in Hawaii, astronomers have observed a “Betelbuddy.”

Jean Smart has fun fan encounter
The “Hacks” star was greeting admirers outside the theater where her Broadway show “Call Me Izzy” is playing when one fan made an intriguing request.

TikTok made this “diet food” popular
And manufacturers are struggling to keep up with skyrocketing demand.

What’s the secret to longevity?
A 109-year-old woman reveals what has kept her alive for so long.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
England fans cheer as Chloe Kelly scores a penalty to win the Euro 2025 final against Spain
Photograph: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

Rue Lepic in Paris as the riders ascend Côte de la Butte Montmartre on the Stage 4, Amiens to Rouen
Cycling and sunflowers, what’s not to like?
Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP

Kep beach, Cambodia
‘A child checking crab pots as the sun sets.’
Photograph: Charlotte Thompson
Market Closes for July 29^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44632.99	-204.57
		-0.46%
S&P 500	6370.86	-18.91
		-0.30%
NASDAQ	21098.29	-80.29
		-0.38%
TSX	27539.88	+134.46
		+0.49%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40674.55	-323.72
		-0.79%
HANG SENG	25524.45	-37.68
		-0.15%
SENSEX	81337.95	+446.93
		+0.55%
FTSE 100*	9136.32	+54.88
		+0.60%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.473	3.528
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.791	3.844
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3204	4.4098
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8563	4.9585

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7260	0.7279
US $	1.3774	1.3738

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5908	0.6286
US $	1.1551	0.8657

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3305.25	3334.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.21	66.71

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1869, the New York Stock Exchange was formed from the merger of the New York Stock & Exchange Board with the Open Board and the Government Board, where Treasury bonds were traded.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 27,539.88 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.9% on July 17 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 140 of 212 shares rose, while 71 fell.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 16.9%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.5%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.2% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.31% compared with 6.24% in the previous session and the average of 6.08% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 43.2169| 1.2| 35/13
Energy | 35.5507| 0.8| 31/9
Industrials | 20.2690| 0.6| 13/16
Information Technology | 16.3723| 0.6| 5/5
Real Estate | 8.6089| 1.7| 17/2
Utilities | 5.9617| 0.6| 9/5
Consumer Staples | 4.5270| 0.4| 8/1
Health Care | 1.2840| 2.0| 2/1
Financials | -0.0946| 0.0| 16/9
Communication Services | -0.6040| -0.1| 1/4
Consumer Discretionary | -0.6403| -0.1| 3/6
Celestica | 32.5500| 16.9| 135.1| 109.8
Waste Connections | 15.6600| 3.4| 29.8| 7.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 13.5500| 2.3| -29.6| 54.6
TD Bank | -5.7810| -0.5| -30.3| 32.4
CIBC | -10.1200| -1.5| 44.6| 10.0
Shopify | -18.6500| -1.3| -21.6| 12.4
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange rebounded to a fresh record high on Tuesday, buoyed by elevated commodity prices and hopes that free trade carveouts will be a key part of an eventual tariffs deal between Canada and the United States.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 134.46 points to 27,539.88, topping the prior record of 27,494.35 set on June 23.
Most sectors were higher.
The biggest gainers were Info tech, up 2.15%, Healthcare up 1.6% and Energy, up 1%.
Base Metals, down 1%, was the biggest decliner.
While the Bank of Canada is seen by nearly all market watchers as holding its benchmark interest rate steady when it provides an economic update tomorrow, the big uncertainty for onlookers remains what kind of a trade deal can the Canadian federal government agree on with the Trump administration.
As The Canadian Press reported today, it’s unclear if the two countries will stick to the August 1 deadline for wrapping up talks.
It noted Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday negotiations were in an “intense phase,” but U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters last week that Canada wasn’t a priority for his administration amid trade talks with other partners.
Whether a deal is announced Friday or later, Canadian Press cited Canadian Federation of Independent Business president Dan Kelly as saying his organization’s members feel “a good chunk” of trade must remain tariff-free in order for talks to be considered successful.
Canadian Press noted a deal struck by the U.S. with the European Union on Sunday imposes a 15% tariff on most goods imported into the U.S., including European automobiles, and no carveouts for key products like pharmaceuticals and steel.
Kelly is cited by The Canadian Press as saying he would not consider it a win for Canada if its trade agreement with the U.S. ends up looking similar to that deal.
He said the goal should be to keep zero tariffs on products that are currently protected under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
“What’s most critical, I’d say, for businesses right now is … whether we’re going to be able to protect the CUSMA exemption,” said Kelly.
“The sectoral tariffs on cars, on copper, on aluminum and steel, they’re definitely hurting, but for most manufactured goods there is a pathway to have them effectively tariff-free at the moment and we’re hoping that is maintained.”
Of commodities today, gold moved higher following four losing sessions even as the dollar rose ahead of the start of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee that is expected to end with U.S. interest rates unchanged.
Gold for December delivery was up $15.20 to US$3,382.00 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at the highest in more than a month as investors move to risk assets on hopes that the United States will reach a trade deal with China, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he will impose sanctions on Russia if it does not reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine within 10 days.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $2.50 to settle at US$69.21 per barrel, the highest since June 23, while September Brent crude was last seen up $2.49 to US$72.53.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks lower in the run-up to the Federal Reserve decision, with concerns about high valuations overshadowing hopes for an extension of a tariff truce between the world’s two largest economies.
Bonds climbed alongside the dollar.
The S&P 500 snapped a six-day winning streak.
A rally in Treasuries gained steam after a solid sale of seven-year notes.
Longer-dated bonds led gains, with 30-year yields down 10 basis points to 4.86%.
Ahead of the announcement of the size of future debt auctions.
Oil jumped as President Donald Trump reiterated the US may impose additional tariffs on Russia and said the nation has 10 days to reach a truce with Ukraine.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks and that Trump will make the final call on any extension.
Adding an extra 90 days is one option, Bessent said.
Just as it happened after the US tariff deal with the European Union, the underwhelming market reaction to signs of progress in China talks illustrates the steady decline in the ability of those initiatives to spur big moves on Wall Street.
There are other market-moving factors on the horizon.
Those include Wednesday’s Fed decision and key data like the jobs report on Friday.
The market also faces a crucial test, with four tech giants reporting earnings over a two-day stretch.
“Investors are now more focused on hard data to validate the economic and policy outlook, rather than over-interpreting trade agreements,” said Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd.
On the economic front, US consumer confidence increased in July as concerns eased about the outlook for the broader economy and the labor market.
While job openings fell, they hovered at a level that indicates generally stable demand for workers.
“Overall, it was a mixed round of data that has done little to materially challenge the price action or macro narrative,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues report on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics.
Fed officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday and are widely expected to keep rates unchanged again.
Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter, largely due to a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, while job growth moderated in July.
The third marquee report may show underlying inflation picked up slightly in June from a month earlier.
With the Fed’s benchmark rate holding at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December, the business world is looking for any clue that officials are moving toward a rate reduction in the fall.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell could face dissent from one or more colleagues arguing it’s time for the central bank to provide more support to a slowing labor market.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed investors anticipate a mixed/negligible market reaction to the Fed decision, 33% said “risk-on” and only 11% “risk-off.”
Assuming no cut on Wednesday, the majority of respondents expect two Fed reductions in 2025.
“We believe the Fed wants to maintain flexibility on when to deploy further rate cuts.
In our view, the Fed will remain on hold until ‘hard data’ begins to confirm the slow-down story,” said Luis Alvarado at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“The Fed will have the opportunity to cut rates later in the year if the economy slows and as long as inflation allows.”
At eToro, Bret Kenwell says consumers and businesses continue to show their optimism and resilience in the face of multiple headwinds.
“As good as that feels right now, we have yet to take on this week’s main hurdles, which include tomorrow’s Fed meeting, Friday’s jobs report, and a bevy of earnings,” Kenwell said.
“If those events tell a similar story of economic and labor market stability, equity markets have the catalysts in place to continue higher, with pullbacks likely being viewed as buying opportunities.”
Wall Street strategists have a message for investors worrying about signs of excessive optimism emerging as US stocks extend their record run: Any near-term pullback will likely create a buying opportunity.
Strategists from HSBC Holdings Plc, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG are maintaining their long-term bullish views even as concerns build that valuations have become stretched at the moment.
They see strong corporate earnings and economic data, growing clarity around tariffs and the tailwind of artificial intelligence propelling stocks higher into next year.
“While we expect equities to advance over the next 12 months, investors should be mindful of potential market swings in the coming weeks,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We think capital preservation or phasing-in strategies can be effective in navigating near-term volatility.”
Long positioning on US equity futures keeps increasing, led by rising exposure to the S&P 500 in the past week, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Chris Montagu.
Investors are pricing the US stock market as if there’s no longer any risk of a tariff-driven recession.  Peter Oppenheimer isn’t so sure.
The chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says it’s possible that tariffs bite hard enough to hurt equity prices even as Washington agrees on deals with key trading partners.
And while the US might dodge a recession, valuations are high enough that it’s prudent to keep diversifying into other markets.

Corporate Highlights:
* Union Pacific Corp. agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern Corp. in a $72 billion cash-and-stock transaction, forming the only US transcontinental railroad in what stands to be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* Baker Hughes Co. agreed to buy industrial equipment maker Chart Industries Inc. for about $9.6 billion in cash, expanding the oilfield service giant’s reach into liquefied natural gas, data centers and other technologies.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. is in advanced talks to replace Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in its credit-card joint venture with Apple Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Microsoft Corp. is in advanced talks to land a deal that could give it ongoing access to critical OpenAI technology, an agreement that would remove a major obstacle to the startup’s efforts to become a for-profit enterprise.
* United Parcel Service Inc. said economic volatility continues to roil its operations, underscoring the challenges for the courier’s effort to reconfigure its network and revitalize its business.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. flight attendants rejected a new contract that would have provided cumulative pay increases of as much as 45.6% over five years.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. posted a smaller-than-expected loss in the second quarter as demand rebounded and efforts to turn around the struggling carrier gained traction.
* Procter & Gamble Co. issued a wider range than usual for its annual sales outlook, underscoring the volatility US companies continue to navigate even as the Trump administration begins to strike trade deals.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. offered fresh profit guidance that was far below its early projections and below all analyst expectations. Executives also declined to explicitly affirm a long-term growth outlook that the company has pointed investors to for years, a sign that its challenges aren’t going away any time soon.
* Merck & Co. is slashing $3 billion from its annual spending as it braces for off-brand competition to its cancer drug Keytruda, the best-selling medicine in the world.
* Whirlpool Corp. tumbled as tariff uncertainty upended expected benefits from the levy regime, forcing the appliance-maker to slash its outlook and dividend to shore up its financial position.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.’s quarterly profit outlook trailed expectations because of costs related to its newest ship.
* Boeing Co. almost halted its cash burn in the second quarter, indicating that a turnaround initiated by Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg a year ago is paying off as the company delivers more aircraft.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. reported slower growth in payment volume and company executives said they were seeing softer retail spending as a result of the US tariff wars.
* Spotify Technology SA swung to a loss in the second quarter, missing analysts’ estimates after the music-streaming service recorded higher-than-expected expenses related to employee compensation.
* Novo Nordisk A/S named its head of international operations as chief executive officer after slumping weight-loss drug sales led to a profit warning that wiped $93 billion off its market value.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. climbed after US regulators reversed course and recommended that patients who can walk be allowed to take its gene therapy Elevidys again.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1551
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3358
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $117,509.14
* Ether fell 0.6% to $3,764.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.32%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4% to $69.36 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,325.20 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We must be willing to let go of the life we planned so as to have the life that is waiting for us. –Joseph Campbell, 1904-1987.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

July 28, 1914: World War I begins as Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, setting Europe on a path to global conflict.

July 28, 1945: A U.S. Army bomber crashed into the 79th floor of New York City’s Empire State Building, killing 14 people.  Go to article.

Beatrix Potter, writer, b.1866.
Lucy Burns, Suffragist, born in Brooklyn in 1879.
Marcel Duchamp, surrealist, b.1887
Jacqueline Kennedy, first lady, b.1929.
Terry Fox, cancer fundraiser, b.1958

Ancient DNA suggests ancestors of Estonians, Finns and Hungarians lived in Siberia 4,500 years ago
A study of genomes from ancient Siberian people shows genetic linkages with people living in Estonia, Finland and Hungary today. Read More.

Moon, Mars, and meteors: Why July 28 is the best night for skywatching all summer
A conjunction between a crescent moon and Mars joins an ongoing display of “shooting stars,” making July 28 one of the best nights for skywatching all summer. Read More.

The more advanced AI models get, the better they are at deceiving us — they even know when they’re being tested
More advanced AI systems show a better capacity to scheme and lie to us, and they know when they’re being watched — so they change their behavior to hide their deceptions. Read More.

Scientists are keeping an eye on this asteroid
The building-sized object initially appeared to be on a potential collision course with Earth. Now it may have a new target.

Marvel is back on top
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” defeated a DC superhero to finish No. 1 at the box office over the weekend.

Beyoncé caps off Cowboy Carter tour with a bang 
The lucky fans who attended her farewell show in Las Vegas on Saturday night were treated to a starry lineup of surprise guests.

Gwyneth Paltrow’s latest role: Astronomer spokesperson
The actress appeared in a new ad for the tech firm whose ex-CEO and HR chief were caught embracing on the “kiss cam” at a Coldplay concert.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ortisei, Italy
Tourists onboard a Seceda cable car travelling to the summit from the alpine town centre
Photograph: Simone Padovani/Getty Images

Shanghai, China
Revellers watch a boxing match between two remote-controlled robots by Unitree Robotics during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference
Photograph: Héctor Retamal/AFP/Getty Images

Stage 3, Valenciennes to Dunkerque
The peloton cycles under decorative streamers hung above the race route in Aire-sur-la-Lys.
Photograph: Marco Bertorello/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 28^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44837.56	-64.36
		-0.14%
S&P 500	6389.77	+1.13
		+0.02%
NASDAQ	21178.59	+70.27
		+0.33%
TSX	27405.42	-88.93
		-0.32%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40998.27	-457.96
		-1.10%
HANG SENG	25562.13	+173.78
		+0.68%
SENSEX	80891.02	-572.07
		-0.70%
FTSE 100*	9081.44	-38.87
		-0.43%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.528	3.526
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.844	3.840
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4098	4.3878
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9585	4.9296

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7279	0.7298
US $	1.3738	1.3702

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5923	0.6280
US $	1.1592	0.8626

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3334.50	3365.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.71	66.11

Market Commentary:
Marx’s great achievement was to place the system of capitalism on the defensive. -Charles A. Madison, 1895-1985.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 27,405.42 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.5% on July 15 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 142 of 212 shares fell, while 66 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.0%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.0%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 25, 2025, and 26.5% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.45t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.24% compared with 6.11% in the previous session and the average of 6.07% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -55.4196| -1.5| 3/44
Financials | -36.0864| -0.4| 9/15
Industrials | -21.8284| -0.6| 9/19
Communication Services | -8.4566| -1.3| 0/5
Consumer Staples | -6.9482| -0.7| 2/8
Utilities | -6.8274| -0.7| 2/12
Real Estate | -6.0683| -1.2| 1/18
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2093| -0.3| 3/6
Health Care | -0.0485| -0.1| 1/2
Information Technology | 23.0992| 0.8| 3/7
Energy | 32.8690| 0.8| 33/6
RBC | -17.6000| -1.0| 16.8| 3.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -13.8600| -2.3| -8.6| 51.1
TD Bank | -10.3600| -0.8| -42.0| 33.0
Suncor | 9.0130| 2.0| 17.8| 7.0
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.6000| 2.0| -59.1| -1.1
Shopify | 30.1500| 2.1| -29.2| 13.8
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high on Monday amid some profit taking and as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated a trade deal with the United States that does not include tariffs is unlikely to be reached, raising concerns around what level eventual levies might be set at.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 88.93 points to 27,405.42 with most sectors lower, led by the Battery Metals Index and Telecoms, both down about 1.5%. Energy was easily the biggest gainer, up 1.9%.
The United States agreed to trade deals that set a 15% tariff on most goods it trades with both the European Union and Japan respectively, but Canada is under the threat of 35% tariffs on exports if a deal with its North America neighbor and largest trading partner cannot be reached by an Aug. 1 deadline.
Canada already faces U.S. levies on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, while new tariffs on copper are slated for introduction early next month.
Earlier Monday Prime Minister Mark Carney took questions on the fringes of a government event at which he indicated that a trade deal without tariffs was unlikely.
Carney said “there is a landing zone that is possible” for Canada to reach in terms of agreeing the best possible deal.
Meanwhile, former White House official Larry Haas said the Canadian government has reason to be concerned.
“The tone between the United States and Canada is a lot more negative than the tone seems to be between the United States and the E..U.,” Haas said during an interview with CTV News on Sunday.
“I think both countries … are preparing for the very strong possibility that we’re going to get tariffs.”
According to Haas, the deadline could still shift, depending on economic signals.
“Trump has backed away from other deadlines when it came to tariffs,” he told CTV, before adding: “If we approach August 1 and these tariffs are looming, and the stock market all of a sudden becomes shaky, I could envision another extension.”
While CTV noted that Canada has taken steps to respond to U.S. pressure, including boosting border inspections and cancelling a digital services tax, Haas noted the Canadian government faces a difficult negotiating environment.
“President Trump respects strength as opposed to weakness,” he said. “Canada needs to make clear to the United States that it’s not going to take just any deal.”
Of commodities, gold moved lower late afternoon on Monday as the dollar rose after a weekend trade agreement between the United States and the European Union calmed fears of a spreading global trade war, easing safe-haven demand.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $18.90 to US$3,373.60 per ounce, remaining off the July 22 record high of US$3,501.80 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on the U.S. and Europe trade deal, with the Europeans agreeing to raise purchases of U.S. energy.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up US$1.55 to settle at US$66.71 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up US$1.52 to US$69.96.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street kicked off a pivotal week with stocks holding at record highs while the dollar climbed the most since May as a tariff deal between President Donald Trump and the European Union bolstered hopes for an extension of a China trade truce.
Bonds edged lower.
The start of a key week for markets saw a dollar gauge up nearly 1%, extending its July rally.
The euro slid the most in over two months.
The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,400 to close little changed.
Treasuries barely budged amid mixed results from US debt sales.
Oil rose as Trump said he’d shorten his timeline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine.
In the run-up to the Aug. 1 US tariff deadline, traders will go through a raft of key data from jobs to inflation and economic activity.
The big event comes Wednesday when the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged.
Then there’s a string of big-tech earnings, with four mega caps worth a combined $11.3 trillion reporting results.
“This is about as busy as a week can get in the markets,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“This week could make or break that momentum in the near term.”
US and Chinese officials finished the first of two days of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a mid-August deadline and hashing out ways to maintain trade ties while safeguarding economic security.
Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is still deep in trade talks with the Trump administration.
The Treasury jacked up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to distortions from the debt limit.
On Wednesday, the department will announce its plans for note and bond sales over coming months — which dealers widely see as staying unchanged.
Speaking in Scotland on Sunday to announce the EU deal, Trump gave a brief update on Washington’s relations with Beijing.
“We’re very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we’ll see how that goes,” he said without elaborating.
“It is possible that as more trade deals are announced, the level of uncertainty that has hovered over business and the economy will ease,” said Brent Schutte at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co.
“Additionally, the impact of final trade deals could be less than originally forecast after the April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs.”
To Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group, while the dollar’s strength today may reflect the perception that the new EU deal is lopsided in favor of the US, it may also reflect a feeling that America is reengaging with its major allies.
“Whether we agree or not with the use of tariffs and the deals announced, we are getting the big ones out of the way which will allow American businesses to adjust and plan, for better or worse,” said Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report.
“And we can now focus on how this all plays out.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank’s board room on Tuesday to deliberate on rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic crosscurrents.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics.
Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter.
While the stock market is moving sideways after a solid run, “if we get no surprises in earnings and some dovish comments by the Fed, it’s likely we’ll see yet more new highs by the end of the week,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“We do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but it’s possible that they make a stronger signal that cuts are on the horizon in the fall, especially as the inflation data continues to stay muted even in this tariff environment,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
Gardner also says that while stock market valuations are high, that in and of itself is not a reason why valuations can’t expand even further from here.
In fact, this earnings season is off to a solid start, and all eyes will be on results from Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. on Wednesday, and Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday.
So far, Corporate America appears to be taking tariffs in stride.
With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, roughly 82% have beaten profit forecasts, on track for the best quarter in about four years, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
Progress in trade negotiations will take the S&P 500 to a third consecutive year of 20% gains, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management’s John Stoltzfus, a feat unseen since the late 1990s.
He raised his year-end target for the US benchmark to 7,100.
Some market forecasters including Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson have turned more optimistic about the S&P 500 as they expect earnings to remain upbeat.
The technical evidence suggests a broadening of participation in equities off the April low, according to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Despite a slight easing in momentum as investors await earnings, the combination of several major indices at all-time highs and improving market breadth continues to draw investors off the sidelines, offering opportunities to buy the dip,” he said.
At RBC Capital Markets, Lori Calvasina says it would be premature to write off the impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate earnings.
“It also poses a risk to the path of stock prices if company outlooks for 2026 don’t end up being as rosy as investors have been anticipating,” she noted.
The S&P 500 is trading around 22.5 times projected earnings, compared to a 10-year average of 18.6.
That’s sparked concerns that there may be little room for error.
The stock market’s stunning rebound and resilience have again emboldened equity investors, who have developed muscle memory around ‘buying the dip’,” according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“With volatility having decoupled from stress indicators, passive indexes have ground to new highs, while the most speculative corners of the market have begun to lead,” she said.
“Complacency is elevated, and valuations are rich. In this environment, we want to be stock pickers.”
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, this may be the most compelling intersection of technical momentum and fundamental strength we’ve seen in a long time.
“The S&P hasn’t had a 1% move in over a month and yet bears have capitulated,” he said. “No one’s willing to short this market, and even typically skeptical investors are getting pulled in. While it’s not a blow-off top yet, the odds of that happening are rising.”
If sentiment keeps shifting and dip buyers remain aggressive, we could see a classic melt-up – and any near-term weakness over the next several weeks is likely to be bought aggressively, he said.
“However, for now, bears are hibernating through the summer,” Hackett concluded.
“We would lean toward being more bullish than bearish on US stocks through year-end, but not outside of a balanced portfolio based on risk,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“However, that view is contingent on positive corporate profitability and economic growth this year, avoiding worst-case tariff scenarios, and investors remaining willing to ‘buy the dip’.”
Markets have found reassurance in several developments, according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office.
“For one, the worst fears that manifested around trade in early April haven’t materialized, and key trade agreements are being signed,” the strategists said.
“Tariff rates remain vastly elevated compared to last year, but they appear manageable.
In our view, it’s likely that the cost can be shared between businesses and consumers without a meaningful impact on growth or inflation.”
Invesco strategists also noted that what should really matter for stocks in the medium and long-term is earnings.
“After a strong market rally, investors should prepare for renewed volatility in the near term,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Potential market dips could offer an opportunity for investors to build long-term exposure to stocks.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Samsung Electronics Co. will produce AI semiconductors for Tesla Inc. in a new $16.5 billion pact that marks a win for its underperforming foundry division.
* Texas Instruments Inc. was upgraded to outperform at Wolfe Research, which said the chipmaker is “near the end” of a spending cycle.
* Cisco Systems Inc. was downgraded to inline at Evercore, which mentioned valuation following recent gains.
* Nike Inc. was raised to overweight at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which cited the earnings impact of the sportswear maker’s five- pronged multi-year recovery plan.
* Albertsons Cos. demanded that Kroger Co. provide details on personal conduct that led the company to replace its chief executive officer, who shepherded the failed $24.6 billion takeover that’s now the focus of litigation between the two companies.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. will soon allow businesses to accept more than one hundred cryptocurrencies at checkout.
* Roche Holding AG plans to test whether an experimental medicine can prevent Alzheimer’s disease symptoms in high-risk people, its latest investment in one of the most failure-prone areas of drug making.
* Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Monday that it’s owed a $100 million milestone payment from Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. within the next two months, pressuring the beleaguered biotech company just days after it stopped selling its biggest drug due to safety concerns.
* EssilorLuxottica SA posted better-than-expected revenue in the second quarter, as the world’s biggest eyewear maker showed strong gains in Europe and pressed ahead with its smart-glasses initiative.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. announced the names of the two companies resulting from a planned separation of the streaming and studios business from its cable-TV networks.

What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“A European trade deal and new China talks will go a long way to bolster risk sentiment in the days ahead, with the Aug. 1 deadline now largely irrelevant. With some level of framework in place for Europe, China and Japan, investors are gaining more visibility into the contours of global trade — and so far, they’re not particularly worried.”
-Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
* The euro fell 1.3% to $1.1592
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3355
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 148.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $118,128.17
* Ether fell 0.6% to $3,802.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3% to $67.10 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,317.25 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Do the thing you fear most, and the death of fear is certain. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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