Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Look up tonight for sky magic as a shadow takes a bite out of the super harvest moon. This particular confluence of events won’t happen again for nearly a decade. Here’s what’s happening and how to make the most of the sight (you’ll want a jacket, judging by the weather forecast).

September 17, 1849: Harriet Tubman escapes from a Southern plantation in the United States, later leading other enslaved people to freedom in the North via the Underground Railroad.
1862: Battle of Antietam, 25,000 killed.
1920: National Football League formed.
September 17^th, 1976: NASA unveiled the space shuttle Enterprise.  Go to article >> 

William Carlos Williams, poet, b. 1883.
Hank Williams, Sr., singer/songwriter, b. 1923.
Ken Kesey, writer, b. 1935.

This airport landing is so challenging only 50 pilots are qualified to do it
Ringed by mountains, this small airport is widely considered one of the most technically difficult plane landings in the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bridge Brings into the City by Xu Zhang | Urban
Guiyang, located in Guizhou province, China, boasts numerous towering buildings and elevated bridges that seamlessly integrate with the surrounding mountainous terrain
Photograph: Xu Zhang/Drone Photo Awards 2024

Karachi, Pakistan
A student sits with others as they attend the Eid-e-Milad-ul-Nabi celebrations to mark the birth anniversary of the prophet Muhammad
Photograph: Akhtar Soomro/Reuters

Stay Where Your Heart Smiles by Silke Hullmann | Nature
Large flocks of flamingos dance above the mesmerising green water surface
Photograph: Silke Hullmann/Drone Photo Awards 2024
Market Closes for September 17^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41606.18	-15.90
		-0.04%
S&P 500	5634.58	+1.49
		+0.03%
NASDAQ	17628.06	+35.93
		+0.20%
TSX	23677.71	-24.36
		-0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36203.22	-378.54
		-1.03%
HANG SENG	17660.02	+237.90
		+1.37%
SENSEX	83079.66	+90.88
		+0.11%
FTSE 100*	8309.86	+31.42
		+0.38%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.892	2.867
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.076	3.058
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.6456	3.6176
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9586	3.9293

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7356	0.7359
US $	1.3594	1.3588

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5115	0.6616
US $	1.1119	0.8994

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2584.00	2575.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.19	70.09

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1998: Stock markets took a pounding after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan dismissed plans for coordinated global interest-rate cuts amid the Russian debt crisis. In weeks the U.S. stock market bottomed out and headed straight up.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 23,677.70 in Toronto, ending a 4-day gain.
The loss follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Waste Connections Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.1%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest drop, falling 3.5%.
Today, 104 of 226 shares fell, while 118 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 13%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 8.2%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.87% compared with 11.59% in the previous session and the average of 13.95% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | -26.3404| -0.8| 14/14
Consumer Staples | -12.5504| -1.3| 4/7
Materials | -4.0706| -0.1| 21/30
Real Estate | -3.7475| -0.7| 5/14
Utilities | -3.4705| -0.4| 4/9
Consumer Discretionary | -1.2696| -0.2| 10/3
Communication Services | -0.2880| 0.0| 1/4
Health Care | 0.5056| 0.7| 2/2
Information Technology | 2.7428| 0.1| 5/5
Financials | 3.3122| 0.0| 19/8
Energy | 20.8111| 0.5| 33/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Waste Connections | -9.6630| -2.1| 51.3| 24.7
Canadian National | -8.1610| -1.2| -41.7| -2.8
Enbridge | -6.6840| -0.8| -53.4| 16.4
Bank of Montreal | 6.7260| 1.1| -21.9| -9.0
Shopify | 10.9000| 1.3| 15.9| -1.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.2400| 1.7| 87.8| 2.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks drifted near all-time highs ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with traders split on the size of an interest-rate cut.
The S&P 500 closed little changed after briefly crossing the threshold of a record amid an increase in US retail sales.
Economically sensitive industries once again outperformed tech.
Treasury yields edged up, with shorter maturities leading the move.
The market-implied odds the Fed announces a 50-basis-point reduction on Wednesday were around 55%.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed investors who expect a 25 basis-point reduction are split on whether that cut would deliver a “risk-on” or “risk-off” reaction.
Meantime, those betting on 50 basis points think a smaller Fed move would be “risk-off.”
“If the Fed doesn’t initiate its easing cycle with 50 basis points, surely a 25 basis-point move will be enveloped by a dovish tone,” according to Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial.
Ryan Detrick at Carson Group said “a larger cut out of the gate makes a lot of sense” given that now the big concern is the potential for a quickly slowing labor market.
Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers still believes the Fed should lean to 25 basis points, but notes that years of trading experience have taught him to respect the message of the market.
And that message has been saying 50, he said.
Sosnick noted there will likely be widespread disappointment if the Fed opts for 25 basis points.
He says equity markets always crave more liquidity, and at the same time, bond markets have all but priced in an aggressive rate cutting path for future meetings.
So the smaller cut would bias against both.
The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed little changed.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms gained 0.7%.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced two basis points to 3.64%.
The dollar rose.
The Fed will either cut 50 basis points or opt for a 25 basis-point reduction, but signal that they will be more aggressive going forward, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
Still, he says, that does not guarantee that the stock market and/or bond market will rally in a meaningful way.
Maley says the Fed will likely try to convey that a more dovish stance is not seen as something that means they’re suddenly worried about an imminent recession.
“Therefore, given that the stock market is approaching overbought territory, we could still get a ‘sell the news’ reaction to the Fed this week,” he added.
Kristina Hooper at Invesco expects the Fed to cut by 25 basis points as a bigger reduction would raise alarm bells about the state of the US economy.
“Recall that the Fed started a brief easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut in March 2020 with the global pandemic upon us; it would be very hard to argue that the situation is so dire now,” she noted.
What Fed Chair Jerome Powell says in his press conference about the state of the US economy could help build confidence for those worried about a recession in the near term, Hooper added.
“In addition, it will be valuable to hear Powell’s thoughts on the expected path of rate cuts — in particular, what conditions could trigger a change of course, either a moderation or acceleration in easing,” she noted. “These are just things you can’t glean from the dot plot, so the press conference is ‘must see TV’ in my view.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. raised its quarterly dividend 10% and unveiled a new $60 billion stock-buyback program, matching the size of a repurchase plan three years ago.
* Intel Corp. made a raft of announcements, spurring optimism that the chipmaker’s turnaround plan is starting to bear fruit.
* Salesforce Inc. is unveiling a pivot in its artificial intelligence strategy this week at its annual Dreamforce conference, now saying that its AI tools can handle tasks without human supervision and changing the way it charges for software.
* Newmont Corp., the world’s biggest gold miner, said it’s on track to raise $2 billion — if not more — from selling smaller mines and development projects.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. is in discussions with Apple Inc. about taking over a credit card portfolio that rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has been trying to ditch.
* Snap Inc. Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel unveiled a new version of the company’s Spectacles smart glasses, revitalizing an effort to build an advanced augmented reality product that may one day replace or rival the smartphone.
* Ozempic, the blockbuster diabetes shot made by Novo Nordisk A/S, is “very likely” to be one of the next drugs targeted for a price cut in bargaining with the US government’s Medicare program, a company executive said.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* Fed rate decision, Wednesday
* UK rate decision, Thursday
* US US Conf. Board leading index, initial jobless claims, US existing home sales, Thursday
* FedEx earnings, Thursday
* Japan rate decision, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1117
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3163
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 142.22 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $59,953.71
* Ether rose 3.4% to $2,352.4
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.64%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.14%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 3.77%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $71.34 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,568.94 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
One day your life will flash before your eyes.  Make sure it’s worth watching.  -Gerard Way, b. 1977.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday. Mayflower Day – Pilgrims deported from England.
September 16, 1963: Malaysia is created.  The Federation of Malaya united with Sabah, Sarawak, and Singapore to create Malaysia.  Singapore lift the arrangement two years later.
9/16/2008: The federal government announced an emergency $85 billion loan to rescue AIG, the world’s largest insurance company.  Go to article >>

September 16, 1924: Lauren Bacall is born in the Bronx.
B.B. King, b. 1925.

Mid-Autumn Festival: Mooncakes, lanterns and so much more
The Mid-Autumn Festival, or the Moon Festival, falls on September 17. Here are tips on how to join the massive full moon party.

Penguin wins New Zealand’s bird of the year
A shy penguin won New Zealand’s fiercely fought avian election today.

A’ja Wilson and rookie Caitlin Clark smash WNBA records
Las Vegas Aces star A’ja Wilson and Indiana Fever rookie Caitlin Clark both broke WNBA records Sunday, with Wilson becoming the first player to score 1,000 points in a single season and Clark breaking the rookie scoring record.

Making arts and crafts improves your mental health
Searching for a new hobby? Scientists say engaging in arts and crafts improves your mental health as much as having a job.

Scenic fall drives where you can get your foliage fix this year
From New England to the West, here are six scenic roadways where you can enjoy autumn leaves and more.
RIP
Tito Jackson.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cullercoats Bay, UK
Swimmers take an early morning dip in the North Sea as the sun rises
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

A Polar Romance by Florian Ledoux | Animals
As the sun set over the mountain slope, a male and female polar bear lay together, having just completed their courtship ritual. They soon fell asleep
Photograph: Florian Ledoux/Drone Photo Awards 2024

​​​​​​​Blue Adrenaline: the Surge of Pipeline by Matt Dusig | Sport
The raw energy and thrilling drama of a bustling surf day at Pipeline on the north shore of Oahu, Hawaii
Photograph: Matt Dusig/Drone Photo Awards 2024
Market Closes for September 16^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41622.08	+228.30
		+0.55%
S&P 500	5633.09	+7.07
		+0.13%
NASDAQ	17592.13	-91.85
		-0.52%
TSX	23702.07	+133..42
		+0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36581.76	-251.51
		-0.68%
HANG SENG	17422.12	+53.03
		+0.31%
SENSEX	82988.78	+97.84
		+0.12%
FTSE 100*	8278.44	+5.35
		+0.07%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.867	2.904
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.058	3.091
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.6176	3.6513
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9293	3.9795

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7359	0.7360
US $	1.3588	1.3587

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5121	0.6613
US $	1.1129	0.8986

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2575.10	2545.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.09	68.65

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1920, just before noon, a massive charge of dynamite went off in a horse-drawn wagon parked before J.P. Morgan’s Wall Street headquarters. Thirty people were killed immediately, another 10 were mortally wounded and hundreds were injured. “RED PLOT SEEN IN BLAST,” declared The New York Times, but no “Bolshevik” involvement was ever proven and the crime hasn’t been solved. Several buildings on Wall Street are still scarred from the blast.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.6%, or 133.42 to 23,702.07 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest increase, rising 10.6%.
Today, 142 of 226 shares rose, while 81 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 13%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 8.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.74t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.59% compared with 13.62% in the previous session and the average of 14.13% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 52.6336| 0.7| 19/8
Energy | 28.6813| 0.7| 29/11
Industrials | 24.5578| 0.8| 20/8
Information Technology | 24.4279| 1.3| 7/3
Consumer Discretionary | 7.6781| 1.0| 6/7
Consumer Staples | 5.0879| 0.5| 8/3
Utilities | 4.4378| 0.5| 14/1
Health Care | 1.6936| 2.4| 2/2
Real Estate | -2.1740| -0.4| 4/16
Materials | -6.1691| -0.2| 29/21
Communication Services | -7.4473| -1.0| 4/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 14.3800| 2.2| 8.5| 28.9
Shopify | 13.0100| 1.6| 9.0| -3.1
TD Bank | 11.7600| 1.1| 116.9| -0.2
Kinross Gold | -4.2900| -3.7| 58.8| 60.3
RBC | -4.3490| -0.3| -11.8| 25.1
Barrick Gold | -5.2750| -1.5| 20.1| 16.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for this week’s Federal Reserve decision kept driving a rotation out of the tech mega caps that have powered the bull market in stocks.
As bets on a half-point Fed cut on Wednesday kept growing, money continued to flow into economically sensitive corners of the market.
While the S&P 500 edged only mildly higher — most of its shares were up.
The gauge’s equal-weighted version — one that gives Target Corp. as much clout as Microsoft Corp. — hit a record high on hopes the rally will broaden out.
“We remain positive on equities,” said John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management. “The broad rotation which began in the rally from last year’s S&P 500 low has deflected volatility repeatedly. Pullbacks experienced thus far this year have mostly looked like ‘trims’ and ‘haircuts’ for the S&P 500.”
In the run-up to the Fed decision, strategists from Morgan Stanley to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are saying that the size of the reduction is less relevant for stocks than the health of the US economy.
“We’re getting a rate cut of some sort this week absent an act of God,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“The economic impact of one rate cut – regardless of whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points – will likely be insignificant. The path and degree of cuts over the next year or so matters the most.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.1%.
Its equal-weighted version added 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%.
The Bloomberg “Magnificent Seven” gauge of mega caps slipped 0.7%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms added 0.3%.
Banks outperformed the broader market on bets a soft economic landing would trump margin pressures.
Apple Inc. led losses in big tech as a closely followed analyst warned demand for the iPhone 16 Pro has been lower than expected.
Treasury 10-year yields declined three basis points to 3.62%.
The dollar fell to the lowest since January. Gold hit an all-time high.
Technology giants like Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp. have led gains in equities for much of the last two years, with investors attracted to their booming profits and exposure to artificial intelligence.
However, since the S&P 500 peaked on July 16, the so-called Magnificent Seven have mostly slumped, with the cohort of tech mega caps falling over 6%.
Meantime, other industries have gained traction.
“Since technology stocks (temporarily?) peaked in July, the winners have been the remaining ‘493 stocks’ in the S&P 500,” said Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.
“There have been plenty of ‘false starts’ when technology stocks seem to be done, only to see them regain a market-leadership position.”
Nolte says that over the past three to six months, the spread between the high flying technology sector and the average stock was large as early 2000.
“While history may not repeat itself, it would at least argue to reduce exposure to the tech sector for a while,” he concluded.
Meantime, hedge funds are back to buying big technology stocks, according to a recent Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage report.
Conversely, defensive sectors have been net sold as the funds trimmed their exposure across real estate, health care and utilities.
As investors prepare for the start of the Fed rate-cutting cycle, stocks and bonds both appear to be priced aggressively, yet to embrace different views of the forward path, according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Equities are pricing an ‘immaculate soft landing,’ driven by double-digit profit growth without major disruption to the labor market and consumption,” she noted. “Bonds, for their part, have rallied aggressively, suggesting recession and intimating that the Fed is ‘behind the curve’.”
If bonds are “right,” stocks face downside from falling earnings, Shalett said.
If they are “wrong,” rates will back up, creating headwinds for valuations.
“Consider owning the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index as better risk-adjusted exposure than the market-cap-weighted version,” she said.  “Financials, industrials, energy, health care, infrastructure-linked stocks and materials continue to offer compelling ideas, as do parts of the tech sector, such as software. Look for defensive ideas among residential REITs and utilities.”
The upside for stock valuations is likely limited from current levels, as the outlook for economic growth is a more important driver than the speed of rate cuts alone, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin.
“While some investors believe the speed of Fed cuts will be the key determinant of equity returns in coming months, the trajectory of growth is ultimately the most important driver for stocks,” they wrote.
Liquidity and the state of the economy will define the equity market reaction to rate cuts, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka.
They recommend staying overweight defensives and expect small caps to benefit from continued decrease in bond yields.
“If the labor data weaken from here, markets can trade with a risk-off tone regardless of whether the Fed’s first move is 25 or 50 basis points,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson noted.
On the other hand, if jobs were to strengthen, a series of 25 basis-point reductions into mid-2025 could prop up equity valuations further, he said.
The election, the economy, just how big this week’s US interest rate cut will be — it has all left the market on edge.
Savita Subramanian, an equity and quant strategist at Bank of America Corp., wants investors to avoid risks.
“You want to be in safe dividends — and I know this is the most boring call of all time, but sometimes boring is good,” Subramanian said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday.

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. was upgraded to buy from hold at Melius Research, which increased its projections for the software company on higher backlog, its prospects for continued artificial- intelligence success, and cloud revenue acceleration.
* Intel Corp. has officially qualified for as much as $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon, according to people familiar with the matter, after the chipmaker reached a binding agreement with US officials.
* Alcoa Corp. will receive $1.1 billion in cash and stock in Saudi Arabian Mining Co. as part of a deal that will involve the Pittsburgh-based firm selling its stake in two metals plants in northern Saudi Arabia.
* Charles Schwab Corp. said revenue is rebounding after slipping earlier this year as fewer customers shift money in search of higher yields.

Key events this week:
* Germany ZEW, Tuesday
* US business inventories, industrial production, retail sales, Tuesday
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* Fed rate decision, Wednesday
* UK rate decision, Thursday
* US Conf. Board leading index, initial jobless claims, US existing home sales, Thursday
* FedEx earnings, Thursday
* Japan rate decision, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1129
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.3213
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 140.68 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $57,871.71
* Ether fell 3.8% to $2,274.89
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.62%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.12%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 3.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% to $70.45 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,582.23 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It is the willingness to accept responsibility, I think, that is the measure of a man. –Louis L’Amour, 1908-1988.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

September 13, 1759: The Battle of Quebec is fought between the British and the French.
September 13, 1814: Star-Spangled Banner inspired by the attack on Fort McHenry.
On Sept. 13, 1993, at the White House, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chairman Yasser Arafat shook hands after signing an accord granting limited Palestinian autonomy. Go to article >>

‘Potentially hazardous’ asteroid the size of a skyscraper to skim past Earth on Tuesday
The gigantic asteroid 2024 ON, about the size of a skyscraper, will fly close to Earth next Tuesday, missing our planet by 2.6 times the distance between Earth and the moon. Read More.

2,300-year-old Celtic helmet discovered in Poland
Archaeologists think the ancient helmet indicates that Celts settled in the region to protect their supplies of precious amber. Read More.

1st tardigrade fossils ever discovered hint at how they survived Earth’s biggest mass extinction
Detailed 3D images of the first tardigrade fossils ever discovered help scientists predict when tardigrades evolved their near-indestructibility — a trait that might have helped them survive multiple mass extinctions. Read More.

‘Springy’ solid-state battery is twice the width of a white blood cell and could drastically increase EV range
Scientists in the U.S. have created a battery for electric cars that could be safer and offer better performance than the ones we have now thanks to a unique design. Read More.

Mesmerizing images from Astronomy Photographer of the Year contest
The phases of Venus, the Aurora Australis and the International Space Station transiting the Sun all feature as category winners in the Astronomy Photographer of the Year competition.

McDonald’s $5 value meal is sticking around until December
The fast-food giant is trying to beef up sales with a slew of fall deals.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Skyscapes winner: Tasman Gems, by Tom Rae
This photograph shows the rugged peaks of the Tasman valley reaching up to the impressive features of the southern hemisphere summer night sky. It includes the hydrogen clouds of the Gum nebula – the central red region – and various other regions of active star formation stretching throughout the fainter arms of the Milky Way

A kingfisher shows its disdain for pettifogging rules in Kidderminster, UK
Photograph: Lee Hudson/Alamy Live News

Mauve stinger jellyfish swim in Sennen Cove, Cornwall, UK. Millions of the jellyfish, which have a painful sting, have invaded beaches in southwestern England after being blown in by a freak wind.
Photograph: Wallsofwater Photography/Animal News Agency
Market Closes for September 13^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41393.78	+297.01
		+0.72%
S&P 500	5626.02	+30.26
		+0.54%
NASDAQ	17683.98	+114.30
		+0.65%
TSX	23568.65	+93.51
		+0.40%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36581.76	-251.51
		-0.68%
HANG SENG	17369.09	+128.70
		+0.75%
SENSEX	82890.94	-71.77
		-0.09%
FTSE 100*	8273.09	+32.12
		+0.39%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.904	2.914
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.091	3.084
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.6513	3.6740
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9795	3.9882

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7360	0.7365
US $	1.3587	1.3576

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5059	0.6640
US $	1.1083	0.9022

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2545.95	2507.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.65	68.97

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1970, the economist Milton Friedman published an article in the New York Times arguing “The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits.” Friedman’s shareholder-value doctrine would come to dominate corporate thinking for decades
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.4%, or 93.51 to 23,568.65 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 169 of 226 shares rose, while 55 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.4%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 12%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 7.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 3.5%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 3
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.72t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.62% compared with 14.63% in the previous session and the average of 14.32% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 44.3018| 1.5| 48/4
Financials | 20.5330| 0.3| 19/8
Information Technology | 18.0675| 0.9| 8/2
Real Estate | 10.9540| 2.1| 19/1
Utilities | 8.7890| 0.9| 15/0
Communication Services | 2.7805| 0.4| 4/1
Health Care | 1.5310| 2.2| 4/0
Energy | 1.2347| 0.0| 25/15
Consumer Discretionary | 0.1250| 0.0| 9/3
Consumer Staples | -6.7904| -0.7| 3/8
Industrials | -8.0229| -0.3| 15/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 13.5200| 1.7| -28.1| -4.6
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited/Limitee | 6.3860| 1.7| 22.8| 55.6
TD Bank | 6.0670| 0.6| 25.2| -1.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -3.1280| -0.4| 13.5| 11.9
Dollarama | -3.2540| -1.2| 48.9| 39.8
RBC | -3.5590| -0.2| -38.3| 25.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders revived prospects for a half-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week, driving stocks to their best week in 2024 amid a rotation into companies that would benefit the most from policy easing.
Economically sensitive shares outperformed the group of tech mega caps that have led the bull market, with the Russell 2000 index of smaller firms climbing 2.5%.
An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 — where the likes of Nvidia Corp. carry the same heft as Dollar Tree Inc. — beat the US equity benchmark.
That gauge is less impacted by the biggest companies— providing a glimpse of hope the rally will broaden out.
As the S&P 500 marched from one record to the next in the first half of the year, some investors grew concerned that only a handful of companies were participating in the rally.
Corners of the market outside of big tech are now barreling higher as investors grow more confident that the start of the Fed cutting cycle will further fuel Corporate America.
“The biggest news in the last 24 hours has been the shift in odds for a 50 basis-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG. “Small-caps offer better risk/reward in the near-term, and we think mega-cap tech likely sees another breather, although it will certainly participate if the S&P 500 makes new highs.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, up for a fifth straight day.
Its equal-weighted version gained 1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.5%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps advanced 0.3%.
Treasury two-year yields dropped six basis points to 3.58%.
The likelihood of a 50-basis-point move climbed to 40% on Friday, up from as low as 4% earlier in the week.
The dollar fell.
Gold rose to another record.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, the case for the Fed cutting more aggressively next week is strong.
“A popular reason to not go 50 is the message it would send: ‘The Fed must know something the rest of us don’t.’ I don’t buy this for a second,” Dutta says. “My own sense is that markets would welcome the move. It is a good thing that the Fed is trying to get onsides quickly.”
At JPMorgan Chase & Co., Michael Feroli says he’s sticking with his call that officials will do the “right thing” and cut a half-point.
Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities says that while he thinks a 50 basis-point cut is the “right call,” he just can’t see “this Fed — who is so entrenched in backward-looking numbers — getting to 50.” “That is what we think, rather than we want,” Brenner noted.
Elias Haddad and Win Thin at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., also believe the Fed is unlikely to slash rates as aggressively as implied by the money market.
“First, the US labor market is not falling out of bed. Second, US consumer spending is resilient. Third, underlying inflation is sticky. Fourth, financial conditions are loose,” they said.
In the event the Fed decides to go bigger, small caps would get a “significant rally” — and would still rally with a “very dovish 25,” said Eric Johnston at Cantor Fitzgerald.
Valuation still seems to favor small caps, and performance did little to move that dial, according to Simeon Hyman at ProShares.
“The anticipated Fed rate cut this month could be just the catalyst to realize this valuation-driven opportunity,” he said.
“Small-cap interest rate sensitivity is one of the most widely accepted investment tenets, and a Fed rate cut cycle might deliver extra ‘oomph’ to small-caps this time around.”
Hyman noted that the rate sensitivity of small-cap stocks is largely attributable to the greater leverage of the cohort versus large firms — smaller companies typically have to borrow more money.
“That is clearly true today, with the Russell 2000 having nearly triple the leverage of the S&P 500,” he says. “By itself, that difference is more than sufficient to point to small caps being outsized beneficiaries of rate cuts, as debt burden relief is typically more impactful for them.”
While there’s been a broader rotation under the surface of the market away from tech and communications and into more defensive corners, the one issue is that earnings growth at the top end of the market are still expected to exceed the rest of the index, according to Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
“If growth becomes scarce and investors flock to growth, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the largest most liquid names get bid up again,” Grabinski said. “Certainly, they are facing court and regulatory challenges — but to be fair this is nothing new.
Getting too down on the ‘Magnificent Seven’ could pose a major risk to one’s portfolio.”
Basically put, with the growth expected from the ‘Mag Seven’, it makes them “difficult to fade,” he concluded.
“While cracks are developing in many of the long-time growth leaders, the overall technical picture still shows broader underlying participation than what usually accompanies a cyclical peak,” said Doug Ramsey at The Leuthold Group. “We continue to view this broadening as more likely a sign of a leadership change (from growth to value) than a harbinger of yet another leg higher in the blue-chip averages.”
After a couple years of technology stocks leading the market higher, investors in the last two months have shown an appetite for other sectors.
As a result, money flew into other corners of the market, including utilities, real estate, industrials and small-cap stocks.
The risk is that what seems like a rotation away from tech and artificial intelligence may not be much of one after all.
“This rotation has actually caused the death of diversification,” said Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management. “Many investors are adding artificial intelligence-centric stocks in the utilities, industrials and real estate sectors, and incorrectly thinking that they are properly diversified when they are actually still overly exposed to technology themes.”
Stock markets are likely to trade sideways until US employment data show clear signs of either weakening or strengthening, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Michael Hartnett.
A clear direction for jobs would “resolve the autumn ambiguity,” Hartnett wrote in a note, after non-farm payrolls climbed by 142,000 in August, lower than economists’ expectations. “Until then, risk rotates rather than rips or retreats.”

Wall Street Gears Up for Fed:
* Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers: If the Fed does a 50 next week, we will likely see a dramatic bull-steepening of the yield curve alongside a bullish yen. Historical evidence points to a 25 being more favorable to risk assets, as a 50 will leave reporters in the room and investors behind their computers wondering if the central bank knows something they don’t. Finally, slow adjustments downward have been more friendly to equities than hasty moves south, with the former more supportive of soft landings and income stability. At the same time, the latter has been associated with economic stress and bottom-line weakness.
* Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com:
Judging by price action, investors are certainly looking for a dovish rate decision. This could be in the form of a surprise 50 basis-point cut — or 25 basis-point cut, with a strong hint of at least one 50 basis-point reduction in the remaining two meetings later this year.
* Charlie McElligott at Nomura:
And this is the issue: Now that market is back pricing as much likelihood on the 50 as 25 basis-point cut out of the gates, then anything but 50 will disappointment market pricing.
* Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets:
We maintain that a quarter-point initial cut is the path of least resistance, although it is clear that 50 basis points is on the table and will be part of the Fed’s conversation. We’re cognizant that CPI and PPI are likely to translate into a more benign move in core-PCE. As the Fed’s favored measure, the overall inflation profile will appear less concerning for policymakers and thereby allow the FOMC to focus on the labor market.
* Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities:
Given our expectation for the Fed to send a generally dovish tone while delivering a 25bp rate cut to start the cycle, rates can continue to rally and the curve can continue to bull steepen. We favor buying dips in duration.
* Chris Low at FHN Financial:
Markets are torn right now between a 25bp cut and 50bp cut next week. We expect 25bp and will be focusing on the new Summary of Economic Projections. As long as inflation stays on a sustained path to 2%, the labor market will be what determines upcoming Fed policy decisions.

Corporate Highlights:
* United States Steel Corp. surged after the Washington Post reported President Joe Biden wouldn’t immediately move to block Nippon Steel Corp.’s takeover bid.
* Boeing Co. is at risk of losing its investment-grade credit rating as the embattled plane maker faces the prospect of a drawn-out strike by workers that will further disrupt production and cash flow.
* Oracle Corp. said annual revenue will rise to at least $104 billion in fiscal 2029, an optimistic signal on the growth prospects of the software maker’s cloud infrastructure business.
* CoreWeave, a cloud computing provider that’s among the hottest startups in the artificial intelligence race, is in talks to arrange a sale of existing shares valuing it at $23 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Adobe Inc. delivered an outlook that failed to quell investor impatience for new artificial intelligence tools to start generating cash.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1077
* The British pound was unchanged at $1.3124
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 140.92 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.6% to $59,735.38
* Ether rose 2.9% to $2,421.12
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.66%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.15%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 3.77%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $69.20 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,582.66 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have  a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Worrying is like paying a debt you don’t owe. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

September 12, 1959: The Soviet Union launches Luna 2, the first space probe to hit the Moon.

DNA of ‘Thorin,’ one of the last Neanderthals, finally sequenced, revealing inbreeding and 50,000 years of genetic isolation
Thorin — nicknamed after a dwarf in J. R. R. Tolkien’s “The Hobbit” — is also called the “last Neanderthal” because he may have lived as recently as 42,000 years ago. Read More.

Easter Island’s population never collapsed, but it did have contact with Native Americans, DNA study suggests
A DNA analysis of 15 Rapa Nui individuals revealed that there was never a population collapse on Easter Island and that the inhabitants commingled with Native Americans. Read More.

‘God of Chaos’ asteroid Apophis could still hit Earth in 2029, study hints — but we won’t know for 3 more years
New simulations reveal that there is an extremely small chance that the “city-killer” asteroid Apophis could be nudged onto a collision course with Earth by another asteroid before it flies past our planet in 2029.
Read More.

Amazingly simple discovery extends Li-ion battery lifespan by 50% — meaning you don’t have to replace your gadgets as often
Batteries used in smartphones or in EVs normally charge for 10 hours on their first cycle, but turbo-charging them to 100% capacity in 20 minutes may lead to a 50% longer lifespan. Read More.

Top moments from the 40th MTV Video Music Awards
Taylor Swift shared a heartfelt tribute, Katy Perry soared through the air and Sabrina Carpenter kissed an alien. These are the highlights from the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards.

Sony unveils faster, more powerful PlayStation 5 Pro
The PS5 Pro will go on sale in November but some gamers may be PS-ed off at the console’s highest ever price

Tom Cruise’s payday for that Olympic stunt may surprise you
The “Mission: Impossible” star performed a daredevil stunt at the Summer Olympics — but how much was he paid? Here’s the answer.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New York, US
The annual Tribute in Lights display is framed by the Empire State Building, reflected off a mirror at Summit One Vanderbilt, on the 23rd anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks
Photograph: Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images

Oslo, Norway
‘I spotted this couple having an interesting conversation on a recent trip. Just one of many charming sculptures by the Norwegian artist Gustav Vigeland in Vigeland Park.’
Photograph: Neil Braithwaite

​​​​​​​Brussels, Belgium
‘A new neighbour? Brussels is home to many parrots, it must be the chocolate and beer.’
Photograph: Robert
Market Closes for September 12^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41096.77	+235.06
		+0.58%
S&P 500	5595.76	+41.63
		+0.75%
NASDAQ	17569.68	+174.15
		+1.00%
TSX	23475.14	+263.96
		+1.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36833.27	+1213.50
		+3.41%
HANG SENG	17240.39	+131.68
		+0.77%
SENSEX	82962.71	+1439.55
		+1.77%
FTSE 100*	8240.97	+47.03
		+0.57%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.914	2.914
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.084	3.083
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.6740	3.6534
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9882	3.9657

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7365	0.7367
US $	1.3576	1.3574

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5038	0.6650
US $	1.1075	0.9029

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2507.75	2506.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.97	67.31

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1836, the New York Stock Exchange prohibited members from trading on the street outside. But open-air trading persisted under the nickname of “the Curb,” in what was to become a forerunner of the American Stock Exchange
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.1%, or 263.96 to 23,475.14 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.2% on Aug. 15.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 189 of 226 shares rose, while 36 fell.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.6%. B2Gold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 12.9%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 14 times. The next day, it advanced 12 times for an average 0.5% and declined twice for an average 1%
* This year, the index rose 12%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 7.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 3%
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 25.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.1% in the past 5 days and rose 4.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 on a trailing basis and 16.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.68t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.63% compared with 14.71% in the previous session and the average of 14.36% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 115.3951| 4.1| 49/3
Financials | 46.0085| 0.6| 22/5
Industrials | 35.6799| 1.1| 22/5
Energy | 32.3753| 0.8| 36/5
Utilities | 16.5750| 1.8| 15/0
Communication Services | 6.5197| 0.9| 4/1
Consumer Staples | 6.1975| 0.6| 9/2
Real Estate | 3.2037| 0.6| 15/5
Consumer Discretionary | 1.4914| 0.2| 9/4
Information Technology | 0.7637| 0.0| 6/4
Health Care | -0.2439| -0.4| 2/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | 16.4800| 2.6| 1.3| -2.6
Barrick Gold | 13.9800| 4.3| 16.4| 16.9
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited/Limitee | 13.5400| 3.6| 63.8| 53.1
Shopify | -1.9440| -0.2| 32.4| -6.1
CIBC | -2.2940| -0.4| 90.7| 29.6
Couche-Tard | -4.0640| -1.0| 149.4| -2.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally that’s already added over $1.3 trillion to the S&P 500 this week powered ahead as the latest economic data did little to alter bets on a series of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Every major group in the US equity benchmark rose, with both mega and small caps outpacing the broader market.
In late hours, Adobe Inc. tumbled on a disappointing revenue outlook.
Treasuries saw small moves.
Swap contracts priced in slightly higher odds of a half-point Fed reduction next week after a Wall
Street Journal report said policymakers were considering whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points.
The producer price index picked up slightly in August after the previous month’s numbers were revised lower, and categories that feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were muted.
Separate data showed jobless claims ticked up.
“Recognizing that the Fed can surprise ‘dovish’ right now, whereas it cannot surprise ‘hawkish’, we think PPI sustains a lingering possibility of a starter 50, which would take less risk with the soft landing,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps climbed 1.4%.
The Russell 2000 advanced 1.2%.
Nvidia Corp. paced gains in chipmakers, though Micron Technology Inc. sank on a downgrade.
Wells Fargo & Co. slid on news the US is seeking fixes to money-laundering controls.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced three basis points to 3.68%.
German bunds snapped a seven-day winning streak after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said rates will be sufficiently restrictive in the wake of an expected quarter-point interest rate cut to 3.5%.
Oil climbed.
Gold hit an all-time high.
The wholesale inflation data followed the more closely watched consumer price index, which showed underlying inflation accelerated in August.
Yet policymakers have made it clear that they’re currently highly focused on softness in the labor market, which is more likely to drive policy discussions in the months ahead.
“With PPI basically repeating yesterday’s CPI reading and jobless claims in line with expectations, the decks have been cleared for the Fed to kick off a rate-cutting cycle,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “The markets are anticipating an initial 25 basis-point cut, but the discussion will soon turn to how far and fast the Fed is likely to trim rates over time.
Eric Johnston at Cantor Fitzgerald says that going into the Fed decision, there’s a “very good” set-up for small caps.
That’s the group considered to have the most-positive leverage to a policy easing cycle, he noted, citing the fact that the Russell 2000 has largely underperformed the S&P 500 in the past few weeks.
“The consensus is that the Fed will cut 25 bps, but there is of course a chance that they end up cutting 50 bps,” Johnston said. Small caps “would get a significant rally if it was 50 and still rally with a very dovish 25,” he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Verizon Communications Inc. will take a pre-tax charge of as much as $1.9 billion in the third quarter tied to 4,800 planned job cuts.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. said profit this year could reach the high end of its prior guidance – if investors ignore the financial blow from this summer’s system meltdown.
* Alaska Air Group Inc. boosted its outlook for third-quarter profit on strong summer demand and lower-than-expected fuel costs.
* American Airlines Group Inc. flight attendants approved a contract that will immediately raise wages as much as 20% and increase pay and benefits by $4.2 billion over the deal’s five- year term.
* Kroger Co. lifted its full-year sales guidance as the grocery-store operator benefits from consumers prioritizing spending on groceries and other essentials.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday
* Japan industrial production, Friday
* U. Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1069
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3117
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 141.88 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.5% to $58,350.53
* Ether rose 0.5% to $2,360.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.68%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.15%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.78%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.9% to $69.23 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.8% to $2,558.15 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Vitality shows in not only the ability to persist, but the ability to start over. -F. Scott Fitzgerald, 1896-1940.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On Sept. 11, 2001, suicide hijackers crashed two airliners into the World Trade Center in New York, causing the 110-story twin towers to collapse. Another hijacked airliner hit the Pentagon and a fourth crashed in a field in Pennsylvania.  Go to article >>

Four civilians just traveled farther into space than any human since the Apollo era
SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn mission made history Tuesday. But the riskiest part is still to come this week when the crew attempts an unprecedented spacewalk.

The Campbell Soup company is changing its name
After 155 years, the Campbell Soup Company is launching a rebrand. The famed red and white labels are here to stay, but its name will change slightly.

Glenn Lowry, director of New York’s Museum of Modern Art, to step down after 30 years
The longest-serving director of New York’s MoMA will vacate his position in September 2025. His decision was likely considered in paint-staking detail considering he spent decades in the role.

How to watch the ‘Harvest Supermoon’ get eclipsed by Earth next week
September’s full Harvest Moon will drift into Earth’s shadow for a partial eclipse on Sept. 17. It is also the second of four consecutive supermoons this year, making our natural satellite look bigger and brighter than usual. Read More.

16,000-year-old skeleton, crystals and stone tools discovered in Malaysian caves
Archaeologists think the earliest skeleton from the Malaysian excavation may be up to 16,000 years old. Read More.

Japan to start building 1st ‘zeta-class’ supercomputer in 2025, 1,000 times more powerful than today’s fastest machines
Japan’s new state-of-the-art supercomputer, which is due to cost more than $750 million to build, is set to turn on by 2030. Read More.

Saturday Night Live” announced its 50th anniversary season and new cast members.

• Who’s new? Ashley Padilla, Emil Wakim and Jane Wickline — find out more about them here. Others were promoted, including SNL’s first Gen Z cast member, Marcello Hernández.
• What’s next: The new season will premiere Sept. 28, although the first hosts and musical guests haven’t been announced. A three-hour anniversary special will air Feb. 16.

“I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice. Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make.” — Taylor Swift, announcing Tuesday that she will vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 presidential election. The pop star has been vocally supportive of Democratic policies and candidates in recent years, often encouraging her supporters to vote and advocating for women’s rights, reproductive health and LGBTQ+ rights.

RIP
Will Jennings was an English professor who became a lyricist for musicians including Eric Clapton and Dionne Warwick, and won an Oscar in 1998 for “My Heart Will Go On,” the theme from “Titanic.” He died at 80.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Tynemouth, UK
A surfer enjoys the waves at Long Sands beach on the north-east coast
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Dresden, Germany
An aerial view of the Carola Bridge, which has partly collapsed over the Elbe River
Photograph: Robert Michael/AP

Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
‘A morning view from above the clouds.’
Photograph: Paulina Murrath
Market Closes for September 11^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40861.71	+124.75
		+0.31%
S&P 500	5554.13	+58.61
		+1.07%
NASDAQ	17395.53	+396.65
		+2.17%
TSX	23211.17	+208.08
		+0.90%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	35619.77	-539.39
		-1.49%
HANG SENG	17108.71	-125.38
		-0.73%
SENSEX	81523.16	-398.13
		-0.49%
FTSE 100*	8193.94	-12.04
		-0.15%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.914	2.896
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.083	3.059
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.6534	3.6423
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9657	3.9622

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7367	0.7348
US $	1.3574	1.3610

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4949	0.6667
US $	1.1013	0.9080

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2506.30	2499.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.75	65.75

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1789, Alexander Hamilton was sworn in as the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.9% at 23,211.17 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Aug. 30 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 164 of 226 shares rose, while 60 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.6%.
Dollarama Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.2%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 11%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 6.1%
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on Aug. 26, 2024 and 24.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.65t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.71% compared with 14.49% in the previous session and the average of 14.35% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 63.9413| 0.9| 19/8
Information Technology | 41.6660| 2.2| 8/2
Consumer Discretionary | 31.5953| 4.1| 11/2
Industrials | 30.3359| 1.0| 27/1
Materials | 19.3627| 0.7| 32/18
Energy | 9.3118| 0.2| 25/16
Utilities | 7.6494| 0.8| 14/1
Real Estate | 4.1684| 0.8| 17/3
Consumer Staples | 2.3509| 0.2| 7/4
Health Care | 0.6986| 1.0| 4/0
Communication Services | -3.0028| -0.4| 0/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 36.3400| 4.6| 5.8| -5.9
Dollarama | 19.9700| 8.2| 119.9| 41.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 16.0300| 2.2| 85.5| 11.4
BCE | -1.6570| -0.5| 15.5| -8.4
Enbridge | -1.9310| -0.2| -0.4| 14.5
Pembina Pipeline | -2.2270| -1.0| 164.2| 19.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest technology companies spurred a stock-market rebound in a volatile session that had Wall Street traders digesting faster-than-anticipated inflation data.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.2%.
It was the first time since October 2022 that each gauge erased an intraday loss of at least 1.5%.
Chipmakers led gains, with Nvidia Corp. up 8%.
Treasury two-year yields edged up on bets the Federal Reserve will move gradually with rate cuts.
Swap traders cemented bets on only a quarter-point Fed reduction next week.
“Stocks bounced back after the initial post-CPI drop as dip-buyers once again stepped in to save the markets,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
To Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital, we should expect “more smooth sailing” after an initial Fed cut and post-election as uncertainty fades and investors start to price-in 2025 earnings.
“Stock bulls should favor a slow and controlled vertical walk down the monetary policy stairs rather than a speedy and turbulent roll south to lower stories,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “When performing historical analysis, the former case has been consistent with soft landings and earnings buoyancy, while the latter tends to occur during economic slowdowns and profit declines.”
The S&P 500 closed around 5,554. A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps jumped 2.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%.
The Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies added 0.3%.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced one basis point to 3.66%.
The dollar fell.
Oil climbed as Hurricane Francine ripped through key oil-producing zones in the US Gulf of Mexico, prompting traders to cover bearish bets.
The so-called core consumer price index — which excludes food and energy costs — increased 0.3% from July, the most in four months, and 3.2% from a year ago, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday.
The three-month annualized rate advanced 2.1%, picking up from 1.6% in July, according to Bloomberg calculations.
“This isn’t the CPI report the market wanted to see,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “The number is certainly not an obstacle to policy action next week, but the hawks on the committee will likely seize on today’s CPI report as evidence that the last mile of inflation needs to be handled with care and caution.”
To David Russell at TradeStation, while the latest inflation numbers aren’t “runaway dovish,” they confirm the cooling process remains in effect.
Attention could now shift from the Fed as a catalyst toward earnings and the election cycle, he noted.
“The firmer-than-expected core inflation print will make it harder for Jerome Powell to deliver a 50 basis-point cut in September,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore. “We continue to think a starter 50 basis-point cut is the right play and might even now win out. But the odds have moved against this, and risks to markets and the soft landing are higher as a result.” Guha noted that if the Fed doesn’t cut rates by 50 basis points next week, it will possibly do that in November.

Corporate Highlights:
* OpenAI is in talks to raise $6.5 billion from investors at a valuation of $150 billion, according to people familiar with the situation.
* Children’s Place Inc. soared after the apparel retailer reported an adjusted profit for the second quarter, while Wall Street had been projecting a loss.
* GameStop Corp. tumbled after the video-game retailer reported sales that came below consensus estimates.
* Petco Health & Wellness Co. jumped after the pet supply and services company’s outlook signaled turnaround progress.

Key events this week:
* Japan PPI, Thursday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday
* Japan industrial production, Friday
* U. Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1016
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3043
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 142.40 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $57,581.74
* Ether fell 1.6% to $2,340.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 3.66%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.11%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 3.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.1% to $67.12 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,512.59 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Answering machine: “Message one.”

Brian Sweeney:  “Jules, this is Brian – listen, I’m on an airplane that’s been hijacked.  If things don’t go well, and it’s not looking good, I just want you to know I absolutely love you, I want you to do good, go have good times, same to my parents and everybody, and I just totally love you, and I’ll see you when you get there.  Bye, babe.  I hope I call you.”  -9/11 Memorial Museum, Gift of Julie Sweeney Roth.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

September 10, 1919: Nealy a year after the end of World Warm1, General Pershing is welcomed home with a parade down Fifth Avenue in NY from 107^th St. to Washington Square.
September 10, 1846: Elias Howe of Spencer, Mass., received a patent for the sewing machine, revolutionizing garment manufacture in the factory and in the home.

Arnold Palmer, golfer, b. 1929.
Stephen J. Gould, biologist, b. 1941.

How fast does evolution happen?
Measuring the pace of evolution is tricky, but some species can evolve as quickly as a few generations. Read More.

‘Remarkable’ 1,000-year-old ring from Scotland’s ‘painted people’ found at destroyed fort
During an archaeological dig at the former site of a Pictish fort, a volunteer unearthed a rare metal ring with a red centerpiece. Read More

‘Put glue on your pizza’ embodies everything wrong with AI search — is SearchGPT ready to change that?
The future of search will include AI, but the technology will need a lot of work and trust before it changes how we access information. Read More.

More tourists behaving badly
Hawaii’s most controversial nature spot has once again become a center of concern, with 14 people recently arrested for accessing the Haiku Stairs on the island of Oahu. The area leading to the 4,000 metal steps is clearly marked as off-limits, not just because of the dangers to visitors but also to protect natural resources. “Someone is going to get hurt or killed,” one conservation official said.

The hidden danger of energy drinks
Many people may think of energy drinks as sports drinks or consider them appropriate for hydration, including for children. Others may believe they are natural energy boosters rather than caffeine-infused beverages. Before you grab your next energy drink, you might want to read this.

The painting was discovered in the attic by an auctioneer during a routine house call to a private estate in Maine. The artwork, a 17th-century painting of a young woman wearing a cap and ruffled collar, was listed as a Rembrandt copy worth as little as $10,000. But several auction bidders appeared to believe it may be a genuine masterpiece.

Beetlejuice’ actors missing from sequel
Director Tim Burton’s new film “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” brings back several characters from the original 1988 film, including Michael Keaton as the titular character. Now, Burton sheds light on why Geena Davis and Alec Baldwin were not in the sequel.

‘Beetlejuice’ sequel scores $111 million in its domestic debut.

RIP James Earl Jones.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Linfen, China
Visitors watching the Hukou waterfall on the Yellow River in northern China’s Shanxi province
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Dartmoor, UK
‘The isolated Ditsworthy Warren House near Yelverton.’
Photograph: Kylie Smith

​​​​​​​Stockholm, Sweden
‘Kungsträdgården subway station.’
Photograph: Ewen Craig
Market Closes for September 10^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40736.96	-92.63
		-1.37%
S&P 500	5495.52	+24.47
		+0.45%
NASDAQ	17025.88	+141.28
		+0.84%
TSX	23003.09	-24.06
		-0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36159.16	-56.59
		-0.16%
HANG SENG	17234.09	+37.13
		+0.22%
SENSEX	81921.29	+361.75
		+0.44%
FTSE 100*	8205.98	-64.86
		-0.78%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.896	2.936
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.059	3.084
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.6423	3.7004
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.9622	4.0005

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7348	0.7376
US $	1.3610	1.3558

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4999	0.6667
US $	1.1021	0.9074

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2499.70	2506.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.71	67.67

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1960, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela formed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC would nearly bring the industrial world to its knees in the 1970s by jacking up the price of oil.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 23,003.09 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 1.1%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 5 of 11 sectors lost; 86 of 226 shares fell, while 138 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.5%.
Methanex Corp. had the largest drop, falling 5.5%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 9.8%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.2%
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.8% below its 52-week high on Aug. 26, 2024 and 23.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.65t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 14.49% compared with 14.49% in the previous session and the average of 14.33% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -67.7370| -1.7| 11/30
Consumer Discretionary | -12.3177| -1.6| 2/11
Communication Services | -11.9910| -1.6| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -6.1301| -0.6| 5/6
Utilities | -0.1017| 0.0| 7/7
Industrials | 0.6587| 0.0| 17/11
Health Care | 0.9359| 1.4| 3/0
Real Estate | 5.0330| 1.0| 18/2
Information Technology | 13.6344| 0.7| 9/1
Financials | 15.0909| 0.2| 20/7
Materials | 38.8617| 1.4| 44/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -23.8200| -3.5| 85.8| 0.9
Suncor | -14.4700| -3.2| 69.2| 15.7
TC Energy | -11.4500| -2.5| 69.1| 20.3
Kinross Gold | 6.1770| 6.2| 3.6| 53.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited/Limitee | 6.4560| 1.8| 0.3| 47.7
Barrick Gold | 6.5020| 2.0| -31.4| 11.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s biggest technology companies lifted stocks, countering a slew of cautious comments from American bank executives that sent financial shares tumbling.
In a session of many twists and turns, the S&P 500 closed higher.
Tesla Inc. led gains in megacaps after a bullish analyst call.
Oracle Corp. hit an all-time high.
Bank of America Corp. said investment-banking results will come in lower than some on Wall Street expected.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. also tempered its earnings optimism.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. signaled its trading unit is on course to drop 10% from the prior year.
Traders also weighed election risks ahead of the first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
The match-up promises more clarity for investors who’ve already spent months parsing campaign-trail language around tax proposals, tariff projections, government spending plans and policies on energy, electric vehicles, health care and more.
In the run-up to the consumer price index, a 22V Research survey showed that 56% of respondents believe that core inflation is on a “Fed-friendly glide path”.
Meantime, the share of investors expecting a recession has stayed elevated.
Roughly 48% of investors surveyed expect the reaction to CPI to be “mixed/negligible,” 32% said “risk-on” and only 20% “risk-off.”
“Given the market’s aggressive expectations for Fed rate cuts, a hotter reading should lead to downside volatility,” said Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “A cooler print has more two-way risk as it creates more room for the Fed to cut, but may also indicate the economy is slowing faster than anticipated.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps jumped 1.5%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms was little changed.
The KBW Bank Index sank 1.8%.
Treasury 10-year yields dropped six basis points to 3.64%.
Brent futures slid below $70 as oversupply fears deepened.
US equities are unlikely to slump 20% or more as the risk of a recession remains low against expected interest-rate cuts from the Fed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
The team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann said while stocks could decline into the year end — hurt by higher valuations, a mixed growth outlook and policy uncertainty — the odds of an outright bear market are slim as the economy is also in part being supported by a “healthy private sector.”
Moreover, a historical analysis by the strategists shows that declines of over 20% in the S&P 500 have become less frequent since the 1990s, driven by longer business cycles, lower macroeconomic volatility and “buffering” from central banks.
BofA’s clients were net buyers of $2.4 billion of US equities last week as the S&P 500 logged its worst week since March 2023, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said Tuesday.
Eight of 11 sectors saw inflows last week — led by technology — which saw its largest inflow since June.
Communication services received the second-biggest inflow, extending 23 weeks of gains.
Clients ditched real estate, industrials and materials stocks.
“Expectations of easier monetary policy has created a positive backdrop for markets, but because tech stocks have become so overvalued, any market positivity is now seen more in the undervalued areas of the market, rather than the overvalued
parts of the market,” said David Bahnsen at The Bahnsen Group. “Many investors who have been focused on big tech are ignoring valuations, which is one of the most important metrics.”

Key events this week:
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Japan PPI, Thursday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday
* Japan industrial production, Friday
* U. Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
* KBW Bank Index fell 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1027
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3086
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 142.31 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $57,974.81
* Ether rose 1.7% to $2,381.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.64%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.13%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.82%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.7% to $66.19 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,517.30 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The positive thinker sees the invisible, feels the intangible, and achieves the impossible. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

September 9, 490 BC: Battle of Marathon.
September 9^th, 1916 The first self-service grocery store, Piggly Wiggly, was opened in Memphis, Tenn., by Clarence Saunders.  Go to article >>
September 9, 1936: Beryl Markham receives the key to the city from Mayor LaGuardiaafter becoming the first woman to fly across the Atlantic from east to west.
1948: Kim Il-sung declares the creation of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea with the support of the USSR.

Leo Tolstoy, writer, b. 1828.
Hugh Grant, actor, b. 1960.
Adam Sandler, actor, b. 1966.

William the Conqueror, d.1087.

Only billionaire in the building
She’s a former Disney Channel star, today she’s in the hit Hulu series “Only Murders in the Building” — and now Selena Gomez can now add becoming a self-made billionaire to her long list of achievements.
Employee tracking 
A major accounting firm has let its employees know that their locations will soon be tracked to dial back on the work-from-home culture and enforce its back-to-office rule.

Sinner’s the winner
The world’s No. 1 tennis player, Jannik Sinner, won the US Open on Sunday, beating American Taylor Fritz in straight sets. Fritz was the first American man to reach a grand slam singles final since 2009.

A particularly active ‘aurora season’ could be just weeks away
September could be a prime time to see vibrant auroras, thanks to a quirk of Earth’s tilt that leads to more intense geomagnetic activity around the equinox. Read More.

Stone Age burial ground in France used for 800 years is nearly all male — and ancient DNA reveals they’re largely related
DNA analyses of human remains found at the site revealed that the majority of the male individuals buried there shared a paternal link.  Read More.

When was the last time Antarctica was ice-free?
Antarctica is covered by a miles-thick ice sheet, but was that always the case? And when was the coldest continent ice-free? Read More.

Novel Chinese computing architecture ‘inspired by human brain’ can lead to AGI, scientists say
AGI could be on the horizon thanks to a novel computing architecture that completely redefines how artificial neurons form an intelligent system. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Lincolnshire, UK
Tom Jackson riding Capels Hollow Drift as part of the cross-country element of the Defender Burghley horse trials near the town of Stamford
Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA

Ameca, Mexico
Children dressed as Escaramuza Charra (woman on horseback) attend a class with their hobby horses at the Caballito de Palo Charreria sports academy in the state of Jalisco
Photograph: Ulises Ruiz/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​A traditional miniature painting is brought to life in Mughal Miniatures, a dance performance by the Birmingham-based south Asian dance company Sonia Sabri at ParkWorks, Stratford Park
Market Closes for September 9^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40829.59	+484.18
		+1.20%
S&P 500	5471.05	+62.63
		+1.16%
NASDAQ	16884.60	+193.77
		+1.16%
TSX	23027.15	+245.72
		+1.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36215.75	-175.72
		-0.48%
HANG SENG	17196.96	-247.34
		-1.42%
SENSEX	81559.54	+375.61
		+0.46%
FTSE 100*	8270.84	+89.37
		+1.09%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.936	2.962
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.084	3.112
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.7004	3.7080
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0005	4.0180

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7376	0.7370
US $	1.3558	1.3568

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4965	0.6682
US $	1.1038	0.9060

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2506.15	2509.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.67	69.15

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2008: Lehman Brothers stock tumbled 45% after Korea Development Bank walked away from a potential capital infusion. The U.S. investment bank failed days later, marking an intensification of the global financial crisis.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.1% at 23,027.15 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since Aug. 23 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.9%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.5%.
Today, 178 of 226 shares rose, while 45 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 16 times. The next day, it advanced 14 times for an average 0.7% and declined twice for an average 1%
* This year, the index rose 9.9%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.3%
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Aug. 26, 2024 and 23.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.61t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.49% compared with 14.39% in the previous session and the average of 14.34% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 107.1133| 1.5| 27/0
Industrials | 43.1864| 1.4| 24/4
Materials | 28.9440| 1.1| 44/7
Information Technology | 25.7759| 1.4| 10/0
Energy | 12.7444| 0.3| 19/21
Consumer Staples | 8.9833| 0.9| 9/2
Utilities | 8.2258| 0.9| 12/3
Communication Services | 5.0384| 0.7| 5/0
Real Estate | 3.7913| 0.7| 17/2
Consumer Discretionary | 0.9768| 0.1| 8/5
Health Care | 0.9518| 1.4| 3/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 27.6800| 1.7| -14.4| 24.5
TD Bank | 18.4500| 1.8| 2.5| -2.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 15.5800| 2.1| 20.2| 9.5
Methanex | -2.1470| -7.9| 336.6| -15.4
Cenovus Energy | -2.8560| -1.4| 87.8| 2.7
Tourmaline Oil | -3.0940| -2.2| -53.2| 1.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying spurred a rebound in stocks after a selloff triggered by economic concerns, with traders now looking to this week’s inflation data for clues on the size of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Almost every major group in the S&P 500 rose, with the benchmark up 1.2%.
That’s after its worst start to a September on record, according to Bespoke Investment Group data going back to 1953. Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. led gains in mega caps.
Apple Inc. introduced the iPhone 16, with Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook saying it was built for artificial intelligence “from the ground up.”
The shares closed little changed after an almost 2% slump.
“We’re seeing mostly technical dip-buying,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “Economic growth is undoubtedly and clearly losing momentum, but a soft landing remains more likely than a hard landing. This week focus turns back to inflation.”
Treasuries saw mild moves, with traders paring the chance of a half-point rate reduction at the Fed’s upcoming September meeting to about 20% from as high as 50% last week.
At the same time, some options traders wagered on an increase in the amount of Fed easing expected by December or March.
The S&P 500 closed near 5,471. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.2%.
The Russell 2000 rose 0.3%.
Boeing Co. rallied 3.4% on optimism that a labor deal will avert a strike.
Alphabet Inc. sank 1.7% as Google headed back to court to face US Justice Department allegations it manipulates the display advertising market.
Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 3.70%.
The dollar gained. Bitcoin rose to around $57,000.
“Equity investors are walking a sentiment tightrope between Fed rate cut cheer, recession fears, and a political wonderland,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. “Looking at popular averages through a technical analysis lens suggests last week’s weakness was just a pullback within the context of a longer-term uptrend.”
US stocks could remain choppy and see further declines in the near term amid risks around seasonality, sentiment and the presidential election, according to RBC Capital Markets strategists.
“Any further damage would be contained within a 10%” pullback range, the team led by Lori Calvasina wrote in a note.
They warn that if hard landing fears escalate, the risk of a growth scare decline in the 14%-20% range “will also admittedly rise.”
With labor market data signaling a cooling rather than an imminent recession, HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner said they were adding to their overweight position on US stocks based on a resilient third-quarter earnings outlook.
Higher volatility over the short, medium and long term will make utilities and other quality and income stocks more attractive relative to growth peers, Bank of America Corp. equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian said Monday.
“Prefer the tortoise (quality & income) to the hare (growth & re-rating),” she wrote in a note to clients, adding that utility returns have matched those of the Nasdaq “over the long term.” Utilities are also beating tech stocks this year, Subramanian said.
Last week’s selloff in US equities has left major indexes susceptible to further declines, according to strategists at Citigroup Inc.
Large unwinds of long positions in the S&P 500 short positions indicate risk appetite turning toward more “directly bearish tilt,” the team led by Chris Montagu said. De-grossing, or closure of long and short positions by hedge funds, in the gauge is leaving gross exposure at half of its peak in mid-July, the strategists noted.
Hedge funds continued to unwind their positions in US stocks as the S&P 500 suffered its biggest weekly decline since March 2023.
Global equities were net sold for the eighth straight week led by North America, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk report for the week ended on Sept. 6.
The move is a continuation of a trend that, broadly speaking, started in May as funds began a big unwind of their positions in order to get more cash readily on hand for possible dislocations around the US presidential election.
“Slowdowns do not necessarily portend recessions, nor are stock market corrections necessarily the harbinger of bear markets,” said Konstantinos Venetis at TS Lombard. “But the mix of rising macro (growth) and political (US election) uncertainty increasingly puts the burden of proof on the bulls in the near term.”
Venetis says that while the Fed is poised to ease, the question is whether “insurance” cuts prove too little too late.
“The risk is that ‘growth scare’ dynamics assume a life of their own and raise the pressure further on an equity market that already looks vulnerable from a technical standpoint, he noted. To Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management, despite bouts of equity weakness the fundamentals for stocks remain positive. “We expect S&P 500 companies to grow earnings by 11% this year and 8% in 2025, he said. “And historically, in the absence of a US recession, the index has gained 17% on average in the 12 months following the first Fed rate cut of a cycle.”
History suggests that the Fed’s success in piloting a soft versus hard landing will play a key role in dictating the path for US equities, according to Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
For example, in 1985 and 1995, she says rate cuts supported strong equity gains as recessions were avoided.
Meantime, in 2001 and 2007, even aggressive easing couldn’t prevent steep market declines amid economic downturns.
“Today, the markets remain cautiously optimistic, reflecting hopes that rate cuts will avoid a downturn,” Shah said. “Yet, if economic conditions worsen sharply, fears of a recession could outweigh the benefits of rate cuts. History shows that rate cuts themselves are not the enemy — it’s the economic context in which they occur that investors should be paying close attention to.”
On Wednesday, a government report is expected to show the consumer price index rose 2.6% in August from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
That would be the smallest increase since 2021.
There will be little new guidance from Fed officials, who are in the traditional blackout period ahead of the Sept. 17-18 meeting.
“Inflation matters,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial. “Weaker numbers might encourage the Fed toward a 50 basis-point cut, while anything higher could lock in 25 basis points. As it is, though, even if inflation is benign and some participants push for a bigger cut, we expect the Fed to land on a quarter point for a first step, with an option to cut faster at later meetings if the data support moving faster.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Discount retailer Big Lots Inc. has filed for bankruptcy protection and plans to sell the firm’s assets and ongoing business in a court-supervised process.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. added Shopify Inc. to its list of recent partnerships, reaching a deal to process some of the payment company’s debit- and credit-card transactions.
* B. Riley Financial Inc., the embattled broker-dealer and investment firm, outlined preliminary plans to sell assets and round up financing to cope with its debt burden and shore up its balance sheet.
* Starboard Value LP is pushing News Corp. to eliminate its dual-class share structure and is prepared to take further action against the media company if it refuses to engage.

Key events this week:
* China trade, Tuesday
* Germany CPI, Tuesday
* US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, Tuesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Japan PPI, Thursday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday
* Japan industrial production, Friday
* U. Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1036
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3073
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 143.00 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.9% to $57,055.69
* Ether rose 3.2% to $2,348.97
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.70%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.17%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.86%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $68.58 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,505.96 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can, you should, and if you’re brave enough to start, you will.  –Stephen King, b. 1947.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

September 6, 1522: Ferdinand Magellan’s expedition completes the first circumnavigation of the globe, returning to Spain after nearly three years at sea with less than 7% of the original crew remaining.

Kansas City Chiefs win in a thriller against Baltimore Ravens to kick off NFL season
The NFL’s 105th season is underway, and so is the Kansas City Chiefs’ quest for a historic Super Bowl three-peat. Read about the Chief’s nail-biting 27-20 victory on Thursday against the Baltimore Ravens.

Cristiano Ronaldo becomes first man to score 900 career goals
Fans were emotional Thursday when soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo scored the 900th goal of his illustrious career in Portugal’s UEFA Nations League group stage match against Croatia.

Advertisers plan to withdraw from X in record numbers
A record number of firms plan to cut advertising spend on Elon Musk’s social media platform X next year because of concerns that extreme content on the site could damage their brands.

Asteroid slams into Earth triggering stunning green ‘fireball’ above the Philippines — 8 hours after it was 1st spotted
On Wednesday (Sept. 4), astronomers spotted a never-before-seen asteroid, 2024 RW1, around eight hours before it entered Earth’s atmosphere. The “harmless” space rock quickly burned up as predicted, creating a bright green streak across the night sky before spectacularly exploding. Read More.

1,500-year-old gold coins from Byzantine Empire discovered in medieval dwelling in Bulgaria
Archaeologists in Bulgaria have discovered a medieval house that contained even older gold coins, which date to the reign of the Byzantine emperor Justinian the Great. Read More.

One of the universe’s biggest paradoxes could be even weirder than we thought, James Webb telescope study reveals
New James Webb Space Telescope results have revealed that there may not be a Hubble tension after all. But contradictions within the findings point to a deeper mystery. Read More.

How does grapefruit interact with drugs?
Grapefruit and grapefruit juice can affect the amount of medication that reaches the bloodstream. But why? Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New York, US
The Manhattan skyline at sunset, seen from the Louis Armstrong stadium during the US Open
Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty

A herd of wild horses graze at Sultan Reedy national park in Kayseri, Turkey
Photograph: Xinhua/Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Flamingos wade in a lake in Ankara, Turkey. The chicks were born in spring in Lake Tuz, Lake Düden and other lakes and ponds around Ankara which host flamingo colonies. The hatchlings have reached maturity and, after receiving flying lessons from their parents, are ready to migrate
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty
Market Closes for September 6^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40345.41	-410.34
		-1.01%
S&P 500	5408.42	-94.99
		-1.73%
NASDAQ	16690.83	-436.83
		-2.55%
TSX	22781.43	-206.85
		-0.90%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36391.47	-265.62
		-0.72%
HANG SENG	17444.30	-13.04
		-0.07%
SENSEX	81183.93	-1017.23
		-1.24%
FTSE 100*	8181.47	-60.24
		-0.73%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.962	2.971
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.112	3.109
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.7080	3.7269
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0180	4.0198

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7370	0.7407
US $	1.3568	1.3501

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5053	0.6643
US $	1.1095	0.9013

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2509.55	2487.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.15	69.20

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2001, the Justice Department announced that it would no longer seek to break up Microsoft, instead asking a federal judge to impose limitations on the company’s business practices
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fourth day, dropping 0.9%, or 206.85 to 22,781.43 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Aug. 14.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.1%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest drop, falling 10.2%.
Today, 187 of 226 shares fell, while 38 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 8.7%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 4.1%
* So far this week, the index fell 2.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 2
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.7% below its 52-week high on Aug. 26, 2024 and 21.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.65t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.39% compared with 14.11% in the previous session and the average of 14.32% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -54.1381| -2.0| 5/47
Information Technology | -38.4903| -2.1| 3/7
Financials | -34.8561| -0.5| 6/21
Industrials | -33.6444| -1.1| 3/25
Energy | -33.5368| -0.9| 5/36
Consumer Discretionary | -8.7907| -1.1| 2/10
Utilities | -5.8686| -0.6| 3/12
Real Estate | -2.6585| -0.5| 4/16
Health Care | -0.1770| -0.3| 3/1
Communication Services | 0.7596| 0.1| 2/3
Consumer Staples | 4.5413| 0.5| 2/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -32.5300| -4.1| 0.2| -11.9
Brookfield Corp | -11.2800| -1.8| 11.3| 17.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -8.5400| -1.3| -5.4| 3.8
Telus | 1.5470| 0.7| 13.1| -3.1
Enbridge | 2.2280| 0.3| -17.2| 14.9
Couche-Tard | 7.3660| 1.9| 6.9| -1.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw their worst week since March 2023 and bonds whipsawed as another disappointing US jobs report revived concerns the economy is cooling and the Federal Reserve is moving too slow to rescue it.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 slumped 2.7% as data showed US payroll additions were 23,000 short of forecasts in August.
Treasury two-year yields slipped as much as 15 basis points — before paring the move.
At the same time, Wall Street bets on a half-point Fed reduction this month faded again —after briefly gaining momentum when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’s “open-minded” about the potential for a bigger cut.
“Markets have turned their attention toward how much the Fed will ease and how fast the economy is slowing,” said Scott Wren at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “Expect the near-term volatility.”
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 last month, leaving the three-month average at the lowest since mid-2020.
The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, the first decline in five months, reflecting a reversal in temporary layoffs.
“August employment data continue the portrayal of an economy running out the string, nearing an inflection point,” according to Steven Blitz at TS Lombard. “Whether inflection turns into recession, or something less negative, depends upon how aggressive the Fed counters current negative momentum. Does the Fed go 25 or 50?”
While the reaction to the previous jobs data was worse, it’s the first time since 2012 the S&P 500 saw losses of at least 1.5% for two jobs days in a row.
Almost every major group in the S&P 500 retreated, with losses led by big techs. Nvidia Corp. lost about 4%.  Broadcom Inc. tumbled 10% on a disappointing forecast.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1%.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms slid 1.9%.
Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — topped 22.
Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 3.72%.
The dollar wavered.
Bitcoin sank 4.5%.
Oil and gold retreated.
Traders are pricing in at least a quarter-point worth of easing this month, though some are still betting on a bigger move when officials gather in Washington Sept. 17-18.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, Waller’s remarks expressed a clear preference for getting started with 25 basis-point cut in September and be ready to accelerate to 50 basis points in November or any subsequent meeting if risks to employment increase.
“This is not the worst possible approach,” Guha said. “But in our view, it is still not sufficiently forward-leaning in terms of risk management, and as such ‘not risk-friendly’ for markets.”
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed does “not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” the numbers are trending in that direction (with revisions), according to Don Rissmiller at Strategas.
“For insurance against downward revisions, the Fed should cut by 50 basis points in September,” he said. “They look behind the curve currently.”
Amid all the discussion about the size of the Fed reduction, “it strikes us” that the market is readying for a “photo finish” based on the August inflation profile — although employment will undoubtedly be weighted more heavily by
officials at this stage in the cycle, according to Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
“Perhaps it will be more akin to a game-time decision? Either way, many have thrown in the towel and will be sitting on the sidelines as the debate moves into overtime. It goes without saying that the Fed is running down the clock on terminal and rate cuts are at the starting blocks.  Powell needs a slam dunk to stick the landing,” he noted.

Wall Street’s Reaction to Jobs:
* David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth: The soft August payroll report does not scream recession, but it does underline that the balance of risks to a soft landing scenario are to the downside. The equity market is still trying to figure out how much slowing is going on in the economy. Is it a gentle flow or is stagnation a possibility? Today’s report does not settle that question. It is a coin flip what the Fed will do. If the Fed lowers rates by 50 basis points, the risk is that it looks like the Fed is panicking and that the recession risk is higher than generally believed.
* Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers: This data does not necessarily green-light the Fed for a 50 basis points cut in September: the sense of emergency isn’t there yet, and much can already be accomplished with a dovish statement in September.
The motto of “not as bad as expected but not good either” is what markets will have to live with for some time now.
* Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management: Rarely has there been such a make or break number – unfortunately, today’s jobs report doesn’t entirely resolve the recession debate. For the Fed, the decision comes down to deciding which is the bigger risk: reigniting inflation pressures if they cut by 50 basis points or threatening recession if they only cut by 25 basis points. On balance, with inflation pressures subdued, there is no reason for the Fed not to err on the side of caution and frontload rate cuts.
* Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities: The employment report today was weak enough for the Fed to go either way. We don’t see any more employment-related reports to get us back to 50. That does not mean we can’t get 25 in September and 50 each in both November and December. Fed is clearly behind the curve.
* Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.: Overall, today’s report is very consistent with an economy that is slowing, but not crashing. We still think policy makers are most likely to kick off the cutting cycle with a 25 basis point cut in September.
Regardless of the size of the September cut, we think Federal Open Market Committee officials will signal through updated projections that they plan to return policy to more normal levels much faster than previously thought, perhaps getting there by end of 2025.
* Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial: Our view is the Fed will likely cut by 25 basis points and reserve the right to be more aggressive in the last two meetings of the year.
* Brian Rose at UBS Global Wealth Management: In our view, the data available so far has not been weak enough to force the Fed to cut aggressively. We maintain our base case of a soft landing for the economy with the Fed cutting rates 100 basis points by year-end.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1086
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3131
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 142.42 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.5% to $53,530.88
* Ether fell 6.1% to $2,223.33
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.72%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.17%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $68.18 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $2,495.77 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a  wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Courage isn’t having the strength to go on – it is going on when you don’t have strength. –Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve!

On Sept. 5, 1972, Palestinian terrorists attacked the Israeli Olympic team at the summer games in Munich; 11 Israeli athletes and coaches, five terrorists and a police officer were killed. Go to article >>
September 5, 1998: Google is founded by Larry Page and Sergey Brinn while they are both students at Stanford University.

Russian watchmaker upends race to design world’s thinnest wristwatch
Luxury giants are locked in a heated battle to design the world’s thinnest mechanical watch. But an independent Russian watchmaker and inventor may have trumped them all.

Asteroid burns up in Earth’s atmosphere over the Philippines
Sky-gazers saw an asteroid burn up in Earth’s atmosphere over the Philippines near Luzon Island on Wednesday. See a photo here.

Chipotle launches Halloween costume collection
The fast-casual chain created a costume collection featuring a napkin, fork, water cup and a burrito. Or in this case, you can say you’re a boo-rrito.

Mysterious ‘mustached’ burial mounds in Kazakhstan date to the Middle Ages
Archaeologists in Kazakhstan have discovered 10 kurgans, or burial mounds, dating to the Middle Ages, and some have “mustaches.” Read More.

Boat-ramming orcas may be using yachts as target practice toys, scientists suggest
Orcas off the coasts of Spain and Portugal may be using boats as targets to practice hunting their favorite food, Atlantic bluefin tuna. Read More.

Specialist ‘carbon nanotube’ AI chip built by Chinese scientists is 1st of its kind and ‘1,700 times more efficient’ than Google’s
Scientists in China have developed a tensor processing unit (TPU) that uses carbon-based transistors instead of silicon – and they say it’s extremely energy efficient. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
A visitor takes a picture of Leda, by Michele di Ridolfo del Ghirlandaio, on display at the Musée Jacquemart-André. The exhibition of masterpieces from Rome’s Galleria Borghese runs until 5 January
Photograph: Mohammed Badra/EPA

A view of the pool-type iceberg
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Derry, UK
‘American street artist Jeks working on his mural of Amelia Earhart.’
Photograph: Mickey Rooney
Market Closes for September 5^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40755.75	-219.22
		-0.54%
S&P 500	5503.41	-16.66
		-0.30%
NASDAQ	17127.66	+43.36
		+0.25%
TSX	22988.28	-52.48
		-0.23%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36657.09	-390.52
		-1.05%
HANG SENG	17444.30	-13.04
		-0.07%
SENSEX	82201.16	-151.48
		-0.18%
FTSE 100*	8241.71	-27.89
		-0.34%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.971	2.994
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.109	3.126
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.7269	3.7552
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0198	4.0578

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7407	0.7403
US $	1.3501	1.3508

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5001	0.6666
US $	1.1111	0.9000

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2487.95	2479.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.20	69.20

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1990: Developer Minoru Isutani bought the Pebble Beach golf resort for $841 million, in what was the latest high-profile Japanese purchase of a U.S. property. By early 1992, Isutani was on the verge of bankruptcy and sold Pebble Beach for $500 million.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.2%, or 52.48 to 22,988.28 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Aug. 14.
Suncor Energy Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.2%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.1%.
Today, 120 of 226 shares fell, while 97 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 9.7%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.1%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.5%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 2
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.8% below its 52-week high on Aug. 26, 2024 and 23% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 3.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.66t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.11% compared with 14.30% in the previous session and the average of 14.31% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -30.8758| -0.8| 14/25
Industrials | -24.8831| -0.8| 6/21
Information Technology | -16.6950| -0.9| 3/7
Consumer Discretionary | -13.3687| -1.7| 4/9
Real Estate | -2.4814| -0.5| 3/15
Health Care | 0.1668| 0.3| 3/1
Utilities | 2.7928| 0.3| 9/6
Communication Services | 5.5639| 0.8| 5/0
Consumer Staples | 7.4388| 0.8| 7/4
Materials | 8.6587| 0.3| 35/13
Financials | 11.2125| 0.2| 8/19
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Suncor | -10.2400| -2.2| 64.0| 20.9
Constellation Software | -9.4610| -1.6| 59.9| 27.3
RBC | -8.7980| -0.5| -41.3| 22.5
Couche-Tard | 4.9790| 1.3| 22.2| -3.4
CIBC | 7.2740| 1.4| 14.2| 26.5
TD Bank | 22.6600| 2.3| 70.6| -4.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks got hit ahead of US jobs data that will be key in determining the size of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
In a session of several twists and turns, the S&P 500 finished lower.
That’s despite a rally in a handful of big techs.
Treasury yields fell slightly, with traders still pricing in over 100 basis points in Fed easing this year — which implies a potential super-sized reduction.
Given Jerome Powell’s recent emphasis on the labor market, many on Wall Street say Friday’s US payrolls will dictate whether the Fed cuts by 25 or 50 basis points this month.
To Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers, a “Goldilocks” scenario around consensus – ‘not too hot, not too cold’ – is what equity bulls require.
“The danger in really ‘bad news’ is that even if the Fed is prepared to react aggressively, it might be too late to stave off real economic weakness,” he said. “But there is a worry that if the news is ‘too good,’ the Fed might be reticent to cut rates as fast as the market has come to expect.”
In the run-up to the figures, economic data was mixed.
US services expanded at a modest pace, companies added the fewest jobs since the start of 2021, while unemployment claims trailed estimates.
“After today’s mixed numbers, it’s up to tomorrow’s jobs report to give investors a clearer read on the state of the labor market,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“Markets are still trying to figure out if the economy is slowing too much, and whether the Fed is behind the curve.”
The S&P 500 closed around 5,500. The Bloomberg “Magnificent Seven” gauge of mega caps rose 1.6%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms fell 0.6%.
Treasury 10-year yields slid three basis points to 3.72%.
The dollar slipped.
Among corporate highlights, Nvidia Corp. climbed, with Bank of America Corp. analysts saying the recent plunge has created an “enhanced” buying opportunity.
Tesla Inc. jumped on plans to launch the driver assistant in China and Europe.
Following a disappointing jobs report last month, it’s no wonder that investors are “skittish” ahead of Friday’s data, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“While the odds currently favor a 25 basis-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, a woefully disappointing jobs report could shift those odds to favor a 50 basis-point cut,” he said.
“If the Fed feels forced to go right to a 50 basis-point cut, it may suggest there’s a bigger worry about the jobs market than previously acknowledged.”
Kenwell says that ideally, we should see a “better-than-feared” report on Friday, showcasing a labor market that has softened a bit — but isn’t weak — and allows the Fed to usher in a series of 25 basis-point rate cuts.
To Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities, if the economy shows strength in nonfarm payrolls, equities should do better initially — but if rates “get slaughtered,” that won’t be good.
Conversely, if rates rally because of a weak number, that won’t be good for stocks either.
“So we are in a tails we lose, heads we lose,” Brenner concluded.
The jobs report is expected to show payrolls increased by about 165,000, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
While above the modest 114,000 gain in July, average growth over the most recent three months would ease to a little more than 150,000 — the smallest since the start of 2021.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows most investors (44%) think the market reaction to Friday’s data will be “risk- on,” 27% said “risk-off” and 29% “negligible/mixed.”
The tally also underscored a notable shift — with the unemployment rate gaining more attention this month.
Meantime, the focus on wage growth has dropped further.
And 52% of respondents expect payrolls to beat the 165,000 projection.
To Stan Shipley at Evercore, Thursday’s ADP private employment tally and other labor-market metrics suggest a “soft payroll” for August.
“Tomorrow’s payroll report could be softer than expected given the slowdown in ADP estimates” said Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial.
“If the payroll report surprises investors and comes in weaker than expected, the likelihood of a 50 basis-point cut increases at the upcoming Fed meeting.”
While the ADP report has been a poor prognosticator of non-farm payrolls in recent years, its correlation to the print has been improving this year.
To Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, there are multiple technical gauges that are flashing warning signs.
That’s why he remains in “defensive mode,” anticipating further volatility ahead for stocks as we move through the September-October window.
“Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are pressing further into oversold territory on a short-term basis, which implies they are coiled springs in the event that trading sentiment reverses sharply,” he said. “Tomorrow’s employment data could be a trigger for such a counter-trend move in our opinion. Would it be enough to completely negate the corrective cycle we currently find ourselves in? Most likely not.”

Corporate Highlights:
* JetBlue Airways Corp. raised its sales forecast for the current quarter after the carrier said it benefited from re-booking passengers from rival airlines whose flights were disrupted by a technology outage in July.
* C3.ai Inc., a data analysis software company, reported quarterly subscription revenue that missed estimates.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. reported weaker-than-expected margins, suggesting lower profitability than anticipated in its closely watched business of selling servers for artificial intelligence work.
* Verizon Communications Inc., which agreed to buy Frontier Communications Parent Inc. for about $9.59 billion in cash, said it’s focused on paying down debt as it works on closing the deal.
* Paramount Global, the parent of CBS, will be controlled by software billionaire Larry Ellison after a group led by his son David completes its purchase of the Redstone family’s interest in the film and TV company, according to a regulatory filing.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1105
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3171
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 143.45 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.4% to $56,090.69
* Ether fell 3.6% to $2,365.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.73%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.21%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.91%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,515.75 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If people are  not laughing at your goals, your goals are too small. -Azim Premji, b. 1945.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 4, 1781: City of Los Angeles founded.
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The average number of visible dark patches on the sun’s surface in August was higher than any other month since September 2001. The final count was also more than twice as high as experts initially predicted it would be, demonstrating once again that the current solar maximum will be much more active than expected. Read More.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson reflects on ‘groundbreaking’ path to the Supreme Court in new memoir
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CNN’s Fareed Zakaria spoke with Stanford University professor Fei-Fei Li about her journey as a computer scientist and how it influenced the discovery of modern artificial intelligence. Watch the video here.

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The match guarantees an American man will play in the US Open Final. Here’s when you should tune in.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Museum of Leaving the Nest shows two tawny owlets in a Munich park. Take by Sasha Jumanca from Germany/Romania, it was highly commended in the 10 and under section of the competition
Photograph: Sasha Jumanca/Wildlife Photographer of the Year/PA

El Alamein, Egypt
Aircraft in China’s Ba Yi aerobatics team release smoke while performing manoeuvres at the first Egypt international airshow
Photograph: Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Kahramanmaraş, Turkey
Farmers lay out tarhana, a fermented mixture of grain and yoghurt or fermented milk that is harvested during the heat and often exported
Photograph: Ahmet Aslan/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 4^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40974.97	+38.04
		+0.09%
S&P 500	5520.07	-8.86
		-0.16%
NASDAQ	17084.30	-52.00
		-0.30%
TSX	23040.76	-1.69
		-0.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37047.61	-1638.70
		-4.24%
HANG SENG	17457.34	-194.15
		-1.10%
SENSEX	82352.64	-202.80
		-0.25%
FTSE 100*	8269.60	-28.86
		-1.10%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.994	3.063
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.126	3.177
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.7552	3.8329
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0578	4.1247

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7403	0.7382
US $	1.3508	1.3546

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4973	0.6679
US $	1.1084	0.9022

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2479.80	2479.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.20	70.34

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1882, Thomas Edison opened the first central generating system, making electric lighting and power a possibility for those nearby in New York City.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 23,040.76 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.5%.
Today, 106 of 226 shares fell, while 116 rose; 3 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 9.9%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.3%
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on Aug. 26, 2024 and 23.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.66t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.30% compared with 14.33% in the previous session and the average of 14.32% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -31.7155| -0.8| 10/31
Materials | -15.2644| -0.6| 12/37
Information Technology | -14.8075| -0.8| 3/7
Health Care | 0.7659| 1.2| 3/1
Consumer Staples | 0.9721| 0.1| 8/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4478| 0.4| 9/4
Utilities | 6.2319| 0.7| 14/1
Real Estate | 6.7923| 1.3| 19/1
Industrials | 6.7926| 0.2| 16/11
Communication Services | 7.2325| 1.0| 5/0
Financials | 27.8689| 0.4| 17/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -14.2000| -1.7| -50.8| -8.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -13.9300| -2.0| 16.1| 6.4
Brookfield Corp | -7.1880| -1.1| -18.6| 20.8
CIBC | 7.4710| 1.5| -11.2| 24.8
Bank of Nova Scotia| 7.6460| 1.3| 33.7| 6.5
RBC | 12.2600| 0.8| -37.1| 23.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields tumbled as data showing a slowdown in the US labor market boosted Wall Street’s bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Stocks fell as Nvidia Corp. extended its two-day selloff to 11%.
Just a few days ahead of the payrolls report, a reading on job openings known as JOLTS trailed estimates and hit the lowest level since 2021.
The figures sparked an immediate reaction in the bond market, pushing the US two-year note’s yield briefly below the 10-year note as traders built up wagers on a super-sized rate reduction this month.
Fed’s Beige Book Shows Stagnant, Declining US Economic Activity “The markets may not be as nervous as they were a month ago, but they’re still looking for confirmation the economy isn’t cooling off too much,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “So far this week, they haven’t gotten it.”
With the Fed set to begin cutting rates in a few weeks, the main question now is how big the first reduction will be.
Monthly US employment data due Friday will probably determine the answer.
Investors are on the edge of their seats after the release of the jobs report last month stoked growth fears.
Jerome Powell has made it clear the Fed is now more concerned about risks to the labor market than inflation, and another bad report would bolster the case for an outsize rate cut.
“Markets seem to see September as a coin flip between 25 and 50 basis points,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research. “I think going 25 bp risks the same market dynamic as skipping the July meeting. It’ll be fine until the next data point makes investors second guess the decision, fueling bets the Fed is behind the curve. Go 50 when you can, not when you must.”
Treasury 10-year yields declined seven basis points to 3.76%.
Swap traders have priced in over 100 basis points of Fed easing this year.
The S&P 500 fell 0.2%.
Nvidia saw its worst two-day plunge since October 2022.
Responding to a Bloomberg News report about the US Department of Justice sending out subpoenas as part of an antitrust probe, the chipmaker said it has been in contact with the agency — but has “not been subpoenaed.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the latest job-openings figures were “on the soft side,” but they do not suggest any rapid deterioration in the labor market. “The still low level of layoffs and tick up in hires suggests the labor market is not cracking,” said Guha. “On net,
we think JOLTS nudges down the bar for what the employment report Friday would need to deliver in order for the Fed to cut 50bp out the gates in September, though not radically.”
Rate options traders stepped up wagers that the Fed will kick off its easing cycle with a half-percentage-point cut this month.
Options tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate show that open interest, or the amount of positions owned by traders, has surged across a number of call contracts that expire on Sept. 13, five days before the central bank’s post-meeting announcement.
Kristina Hooper at Invesco expects the Fed will cut only 25 basis points, but anticipates that would only be the start of what is likely to be a “very significant easing cycle.”
The stock market could be heading for correction if payrolls data comes in weak on Friday, according to Scott Rubner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The bank’s clients are already positioning for a negative technical setup for share prices in the second half of September, Rubner wrote, adding that he expects a risk-off move to begin on Sept. 16.
“A market correction may start to get traction if payrolls are weak,” he wrote.
Bank of America Corp. clients were net sellers of US equities for a second consecutive week, recording the biggest net sale of shares since late 2020 as uncertainty grows around the economic outlook.
Institutional, hedge fund, and retail clients all offloaded US stocks, with net sales totaling $8 billion in the week ended Aug. 30, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said Wednesday in a note.

Corporate Highlights:
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. reported weaker-than-expected margins, suggesting lower profitability than anticipated in its closely watched business of selling servers for artificial intelligence work.
* C3.ai Inc., a data analysis software company, reported quarterly subscription revenue that missed estimates.
* US President Joe Biden is preparing to block Nippon Steel Corp.’s $14.1 billion takeover of United States Steel Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Verizon Communications Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire rival telecommunications operator Frontier Communications Parent Inc., according to a person familiar with the negotiations.
* The Nordstrom family is looking to take their namesake department store chain private in a proposed $3.8 billion deal.
* Dollar Tree Inc. plunged in a harbinger of the pain coming for companies that cater to consumers earning less than $35,000 a year.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ADP employment, ISM services index, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1077
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3143
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 143.84 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $58,067.06
* Ether fell 0.4% to $2,453.49
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 3.76%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.22%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $68.85 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Chance fights ever on the side of the prudent. –Euripides, c. 480 BC- c.406 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com