Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve & Happy Halloween!
Samhain: Wiccan New Year.

On October 31^st, 1973, the United States ended its worldwide military alert called during hostilities in the Middle East.  Go to article 

John Keats, poet, b. 1795.
Helmut Newton, photographer, b. 1920.
Harry Houdini, magician, b. 1926.
Dan Rather, TV journalist, b. 1931.

Archaeologists discover 4,000-year-old Bronze Age settlement hidden in Saudi Arabian oasis
A Bronze Age settlement hidden on the Arabian Peninsula reveals secrets about the slow growth of urbanization in the region.  Read More.

‘We are teetering on a planetary tightrope’: Cut emissions in half right now to prevent climate catastrophe, UN warns
A new U.N. report has found the world will warm by twice the 1.5-degree-Celsius target adopted in the Paris Agreement by 2100 if countries fail to slash greenhouse gas emissions right now. Read More

Voyager 1 loses contact with NASA, turns on retro transmitter not used since 1981
NASA lost contact with the interstellar Voyager 1 spacecraft for nearly a week after a technical glitch shut off the probe’s main transmitter. Using Voyager’s weaker backup transmitter, engineers are assessing the problem from 15 billion miles away. Read More.

How to get better faster when you have the flu, according to science
Are there any scientifically proven ways to shorten a flu infection? Live Science spoke with two experts to find out. Read More.

King Charles and Queen Camilla take private trip to India
Britain’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla made a surprise pitstop in India as they returned from their royal tour to Australia and Samoa.

A refreshing change: Starbucks to make popular add-on free of charge
Starting next week, Starbucks customers will no longer pay more for adding soy, oat, almond or coconut milk to their orders. Read about the new pricing.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A female Allen’s hummingbird rests on the leaf of an amaryllis plant in a suburban garden of Orange County, California, US. She is less than 3.5in (89mm) long, and weighs about the same as a sheet of A4 paper
Photograph: Bruce Chambers/Zuma Press Wire/Rex/Shutterstock

Right under his nose … a monkey climbs on a statue at the entrance to the Golden Temple of Dambulla, Sri Lanka
Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Coventry, UK
‘The coloured glass windows in the cathedral are amazing, but looking up from the base shows sunlight spilling over the concrete.’
Photograph: Simon White
Market Closes for October 31^st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41763.46	-378.08
		-0.90%
S&P 500	5705.45	-108.22
		-1.86%
NASDAQ	18095.15	-512.78
		-2.76%
TSX	24156.87	-380.92
		-1.43%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39081.25	-196.14
		-0.50%
HANG SENG	20317.33	-63.31
		-0.31%
SENSEX	79389.06	-553.12
		-0.69%
FTSE 100*	8110.10	-49.53
		-0.61%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.219	3.262
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.288	3.340
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2844	4.3004
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4750	4.5035

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7178	0.7190
US $	1.3931	1.3909

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5164	0.6595
US $	1.0885	0.9187

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2777.80	2769.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.61	68.61

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1933, Albert Wiggin, the former president of the Chase National Bank, testified that his personal investment companies had borrowed money from Chase to short-sell Chase’s own stock. Congress then added a provision to the Securities Exchange Act, banning corporate officers from short-selling their own shares.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 1.4%, or 350.92 to 24,156.87 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.2% on Aug. 2.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 182 of 222 shares fell, while 37 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.0%.
Veren Inc. had the largest drop, falling 14.4%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss four times. The next day, it declined twice for an average 1.6% and advanced twice for an average 1.1%
* This year, the index rose 15%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 0.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.3%
* The index advanced 28% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 36% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.1% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 28.3% above its low on Oct. 31, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.6% in the past 5 days and rose 0.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.88t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.47% compared with 6.68% in the previous session and the average of 8.24% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -111.7783| -1.4| 1/26
Materials | -77.2207| -2.4| 2/49
Information Technology| -55.5918| -2.7| 1/9
Industrials | -36.5673| -1.2| 5/22
Energy | -34.1274| -0.8| 14/26
Consumer Staples | -18.1242| -1.8| 0/11
Real Estate | -8.7440| -1.7| 0/19
Consumer Discretionary| -7.6479| -0.9| 3/8
Communication Services| -2.5355| -0.4| 2/3
Utilities | -1.4778| -0.2| 7/7
Health Care | 2.9138| 3.8| 2/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -34.1300| -2.0| -18.9| 25.7
Shopify | -19.7200| -2.1| 61.4| 5.6
Constellation Software | -18.2600| -3.1| 49.2| 27.8
South Bow | 1.4790| 3.0| -52.0|n/a
Capital Power | 1.9710| 4.0| 61.1| 49.2
Bausch Health | 3.0300| 12.7| 213.4| 20.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks got hit as disappointing outlooks from Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. fueled concern that a nearly 45% surge in the megacaps that have powered the bull market might have gone too far.
Oil jumped on a report Iran is planning a fresh attack on Israel.
A 1.5% slide in the S&P 500 Thursday wiped out the gauge’s advance for October, halting a streak of monthly gains that would have been the longest since 2021.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.2%. All megacaps retreated amid concerns on whether the cohort can sustain massive profit growth while investing billions of dollars in artificial intelligence.
Those worries hit a market showing signs of exhaustion near record highs ahead of next week’s US election and the Federal Reserve decision.
Another pair of tech titans — Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. — will report results after the close.
“Halloween is bringing tricks, not treats to many investors,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers. “The market’s mindset seems to be switching from one where anything AI-related was a reason for enthusiasm towards one where investors are looking for some returns on their massive spending.”
Moreover, there’s a nearly palpable narrative taking hold that the election – rather than offering a sense of certainty -will cause volatility to spike, noted Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial.
That’s not to mention the jobs report on Friday.
In the run-up to the figures, data showed unemployment claims fell to their lowest since May while a key inflation gauge picked up.
Treasuries didn’t do much on Thursday, but finished lower for the month on bets the Fed won’t be too aggressive with rate cuts amid a strong economy.
The dollar is seeing its best month since 2022.
Traders are preparing for a surge in global currency volatility after the cost of hedging dollar moves over the next week climbed to the most expensive since 2020.
The yen jumped as much as 1%, extending gains seen after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that currency markets have had a major impact on the economy, pointing to another potential rate hike in coming months.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves sought to reassure the financial markets after her budget on Wednesday triggered a selloff in UK bonds.
Gold retreated as some investors booked profit after the metal’s rally to a fresh record.
The guidance out of Microsoft and Meta raise some of the same questions that we heard during the last earnings season, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“Thankfully, Alphabet did show some signs that their ROI on the AI phenomenon is bearing some fruit,” Maley said.
“However, last night’s results do seem to indicate that it could still be a much longer time for these returns to build up in a significant way for many companies — at least when you compare it to the timeframe investors have been assuming for much of this year.”
If that is indeed the case, it’s going to be much tougher for the investors to justify today’s very expensive stock market which is especially true given that longer-term yields have been rising at a steady and material pace over the past six weeks, Maley noted.
Investors need to make sure they have diversification within tech and that they are not solely invested in the parts of the AI trade that have worked such as semiconductors, according to Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer, Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management.
“It makes some sense to trim some from those names that have worked so well over the past 12-18 months and look for AI laggards as well as other tech themes like cybersecurity, robotics and automation, and smart homes and cities,” he said.
Equity bulls bracing for a string of market-moving events in the next couple of days have favorable seasonality on their side.
The S&P 500 has historically posted a 1.56% return in November, CFRA’s data going back to 1945 show, in what’s been the second-best month of the year for the index.
This century, the gauge was down in November just on six occasions.
“The S&P 500 is slightly lower in October, but luckily, November seasonality is a big tailwind,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
Over the past 100 years, November has ranked as the fourth-best month with an average gain of 1.3% and positive performance 63% of the time, they said.
More recently in the past 50 years, it is one of two months (the other being April) in which the index has averaged a gain of more than 2%.
In that timeframe, it also traded higher more consistently than any month.
Looking only at the past twenty years, November’s 2.43% average gain is only edged out by July’s 2.45% gain for the best month of the year, Bespoke concluded.

Corporate Highlights:
* OpenAI is adding a new set of search features to its flagship product ChatGPT, escalating the artificial intelligence startup’s challenge to Alphabet Inc.’s Google.
* Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s autonomous driving unit, was valued at more than $45 billion, including its latest round of financing, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Root Inc. shares are having their best day ever on Thursday after the auto insurance platform announced that it had turned profitable for the first time in its history.
* Mastercard Inc. reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates, helped by a boost in cross-border transactions.
* Merck & Co. lowered the top end of its full-year sales guidance after demand for its HPV vaccine fell for a second straight quarter in China.
* Uber Technologies Inc. reported weaker-than-expected ride bookings and issued a middling forecast for the holiday quarter, even as it delivered record operating profit.
* ConocoPhillips raised its production forecast for the year after surpassing output expectations in the third quarter.
* Estée Lauder Cos. pulled its guidance for the year, citing uncertainty over a new chief executive and weak demand in China.
* Roblox Corp., a video-game company, reported third-quarter bookings that beat analysts’ expectations and boosted its guidance for the full year, as the platform’s user base surged.
* Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. boosted its profit outlook for a fourth time this year as demand for sailings remains high, defying fears a slowdown in the wider leisure travel industry.
* MetLife Inc. tumbled after the insurer reported third-quarter private equity returns that weighed on variable investment income.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. shares soared after the fitness company named Ford Motor Co. executive Peter Stern as its next chief executive officer and delivered improving profitability.
* Carvana Co. surged after the online used-car retailer reported higher-than-expected results for the most recent quarter, as growing sales and cost cutting brought about stronger profits and a better outlook for the rest of the year.
* Comcast Corp. said it’s considering spinning off its cable networks into a new company as it grapples with the continuing industry-wide decline in subscribers.
* DoorDash Inc. beat Wall Street’s expectations on virtually every key earnings metric, allowing the delivery service to post its first operating profit since the start of the pandemic.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. fell after the brokerage reported revenue that missed analyst estimates because of a customer promotion program that required the firm to offset a portion of the haul.
* Roku Inc., a manufacturer of set-top boxes used to stream TV,  said it will no longer report the number of households that use its products each quarter, starting next year.
* Cigna Group jumped after Chief Executive Officer David Cordani signaled the company is focused on returning cash to shareholders through buybacks rather than a possible deal with Humana Inc.
* Clorox Co. raised its annual profit guidance after increased advertising helped the bleach maker fully regain the market share that it lost when a cyberattack disrupted production last year.
* Bristol Myers Squibb Co. raised its 2024 earnings guidance after reporting better-than-expected revenue and profit, fueled by demand for the blood-thinner Eliquis and several newer treatments.
* Altria Group Inc. kicked off a plan to cut at least $600 million of costs over the next five years as the tobacco group maintained its outlook for the year.
* MicroStrategy Inc. has hired banks to help it raise $42 billion through the sale of new shares and fixed income to buy more Bitcoin after a flurry of deals over the past year.
* Coinbase Global Inc., the largest US crypto exchange, posted results below Wall Street expectations even though revenue almost doubled.
* Samsung Electronics Co. declared progress in supplying its most advanced AI memory chips to Nvidia Corp., seeking to reassure to investors who fear the company is falling further behind SK Hynix Inc. in a red-hot market.

Key events this week:
* China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Friday
* US employment, ISM manufacturing, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as of 3:39 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 3.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0872
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.2883
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 152.04 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.5% to $70,286.1
* Ether fell 5.9% to $2,519.34
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.39%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.45%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.9% to $70.58 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.5% to $2,746.77 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand.
Have a lovely evening .

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Live as if you were to die tomorrow.  Learn as if you were to live forever. -Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

October 30, 1938: Orson Welles airs his famous radio adaptation of The War of the Worlds, causing widespread panic as listeners believe an alien invasion is actually happening.

October 30, 2000: After beating the Mets in the first Subway Series in forty-four years, the Yankees are given a ticker tape parade.
2003: Lebron James made his NBA debut with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Go to article 

John Adams, 2^nd President, b. 1735.
Fyodor Dostoyevsky, writer, b. 1821.
Emily Post, writer, b. 1872.
Ezra Pound, poet, b. 1885.

1,200-year-old Viking cemetery with ‘stone ship’ burials discovered in Sweden
Archaeologists in Sweden were expecting to find an ancient settlement, but they were surprised to discover a Viking Age cemetery with boat-shaped burial outlines. Read More.

James Webb telescope finds 1st possible ‘failed stars’ beyond the Milky Way — and they could reveal new secrets of the early universe
The James Webb Space Telescope may have found dozens of elusive brown dwarfs — strange objects larger than planets but smaller than stars — beyond the Milky Way for the first time ever. Read More.

New app performs motion capture using just your smartphone — no suits, specialized cameras or equipment needed
Motion capture requires special equipment and infrastructure that can cost upward of $100,000 — but scientists have created a smartphone app and AI algorithm to do the same job. Read More.

New York Yankees stave off World Series elimination
The Yankees beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 11-4 in Game 4, spoiling a historic night for the Dodgers who had hoped for a clean 4-0 sweep in the series. The two teams will face off later today in a high-stakes Game 5.

TikTok’s founder is now China’s richest person
China has a new richest person — and it’s the entrepreneur behind the wildly popular, and controversial, app TikTok.

Gate lice: What they are and why they’re a problem
Some airlines are cracking down on “gate lice,” a not-so-flattering term for those who swarm around airport gates before their designated boarding time.

Oasis is canceling reunion tour tickets sold by resellers
The band is canceling around 50,000 tickets for its British tour dates that were resold on secondary websites like StubHub and Viagogo.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Vancouver, Canada
‘Taken from Grouse Mountain chair lift. The city was shrouded in smoke from distant wildfires.’
Photograph: Andy Ireland

Hustai national park, Mongolia
‘Three friends and I rode up a hill on tired and reluctant horses and were greeted by this view.’
Photograph: Janis Michael

​​​​​​​Norfolk, UK
‘The dawn in Cromer looked promising, except for the cloud on the horizon, but that cleared to give some wonderful colours.’
Photograph: David Eberlin
Market Closes for October 30^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42141.54	-91.51
		-0.22%
S&P 500	5813.67	-19.25
		-0.33%
NASDAQ	18607.93	-104.82
		-0.56%
TSX	24507.79	-54.76
		-0.22%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39277.39	+373.71
		+0.96%
HANG SENG	20380.64	-320.50
		-1.55%
SENSEX	79942.18	-426.85
		-0.53%
FTSE 100*	8159.63	-59.98
		-0.73%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.262	3.246
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.340	3.357
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3004	4.2541
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5035	4.4985

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7190	0.7187
US $	1.3909	1.3914

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5104	0.6621
US $	1.0860	0.9208

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2769.15	2741.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.61	67.21

Market Commentary:
You should give your kids enough money to do anything but not enough money to do nothing. – Warren Buffett.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.2%, or 54.76 to 24,507.79 in Toronto.
Waste Connections Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 3.9%.
Today, 121 of 222 shares fell, while 97 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 2.1%
* The index advanced 30% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 39% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 30.6% above its low on Oct. 30, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.89t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.68% compared with 6.76% in the previous session and the average of 8.28% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -32.8827| -1.0| 8/43
Information Technology | -16.3727| -0.8| 2/8
Industrials | -13.1889| -0.4| 14/13
Financials | -11.0499| -0.1| 16/11
Communication Services | -2.7563| -0.4| 2/3
Consumer Discretionary | -1.9508| -0.2| 3/8
Real Estate | -1.6236| -0.3| 4/13
Health Care | 0.0169| 0.0| 3/1
Utilities | 5.9851| 0.6| 11/4
Energy | 6.6772| 0.2| 26/14
Consumer Staples | 12.3795| 1.3| 8/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Waste Connections | -7.3230| -1.6| 37.9| 24.9
Shopify | -6.7690| -0.7| -17.5| 7.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -5.9500| -0.8| -50.2| 9.4
Capital Power | 3.5330| 7.7| 102.4| 43.5
Couche-Tard | 4.7710| 1.2| -4.4| -4.9
Brookfield Corp | 4.8310| 0.6| -17.1| 41.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rout in chipmakers dragged down stocks, with traders also sifting through corporate results and economic data.
In late hours, Meta Platforms Inc. slid while Microsoft Corp. climbed after earnings.
A $300 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) extended losses after the close of regular trading as Meta’s spending guidance failed to enthuse investors.
That’s even after a sales beat.
Microsoft rose as its cloud-computing business and Office software fueled stronger-than-projected quarterly revenue growth.
eBay Inc. dropped after projecting holiday season sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
Equities struggled to gain traction Wednesday as a closely watched gauge of semiconductor companies tumbled.
The rout was driven by a slide in Nvidia Corp. and underwhelming results at Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Server maker Super Micro Computer Inc. plunged 33% as Ernst & Young LLP resigned as its auditor.
Alphabet Inc. jumped on better-than-expected sales.
Traders trimmed bets on policy easing after data showing the US economy expanded at a robust pace in the third quarter as household purchases accelerated ahead of the election and the federal government ramped up defense spending.
A measure of underlying inflation rose 2.2%, roughly in line with the Federal Reserve’s target.
“Solid but not blistering growth fits nicely within the current economic backdrop,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “Too hot of a print and investors would likely question the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, while a weak print could reignite worries about a deteriorating economy.”
Kenwell says investors should cheer for strong economic data — even if that means slower-than-expected rate cuts from the Fed.
“It’s far better to have a strong economy and earnings driving stocks higher rather than hopes of easing monetary policy from the Fed,” he said.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.8%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2%.
Homebuilders rallied as pending home sales in the US saw their biggest gain since 2020.
Visa Inc. climbed on solid results.
Eli Lilly & Co. got hit after lowering its guidance amid lackluster sales of its weight-loss drug.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, rose seven basis points to 4.16%.
UK bonds fell as investors balked at the new government’s plan for historically high debt issuance to help fund investment and stimulate the economy, which could mean higher for longer rates.
Oil rebounded.
The US stock market’s fundamental flows are turning increasingly bullish, which should give equities a fresh jolt once the US election is out of the way.
The elements of a rally are building up — stocks are entering a historically strong season and companies are starting to buy back shares.
Investors may be over-hedged for the series of earnings, US election and central bank risks looming through early November.
And with market volatility declining from the early-August high, systematic investors and options desks may be forced to snap up stocks.
Selling by mutual funds — typically the biggest off loader of stocks — is fading into the end of the month.
That’s set to reverse, with November typically seeing inflows into equities, while at the same time the corporate buyback window is re-opening with an estimate of $6 billion of buying every single day in November, according to Scott Rubner, a managing director
for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs.
“Animal spirits” could return to markets in the wake of the US election, Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note, saying as investors appear to be in “wait-and-see” mode into the vote.
Equity inflows were steady in October with caution remaining under the hood and volumes low.
The strategists say that hedge funds and systematic strategies added to their equity positions in October, after largely being on the sidelines in September.
While US stocks may be rising ahead of a potential victory for Donald Trump in next week’s US election, strategists at Citigroup Inc. say a clean sweep for the Republican party will be a signal to sell.
A Trump win is generally seen as good news for stocks because his proposals to lower corporate taxes would likely benefit company earnings. The Citi strategists argue, however, that the “near-euphoric sentiment” that’s driving the S&P 500 toward a sixth straight month of gains is leaving it ripe for a pullback.
Meantime, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said earnings downgrades are dominant across the world, a backdrop that would rarely support equity prices.
Strategists led by Khuram Chaudhry noted that while global equity indexes continue to trade near all-time highs, equity sentiment seems to have peaked and is now mean-reverting, with positive sentiment very likely to dwindle as global consensus earnings downgrades increase.
An earnings sentiment downturn is also evident, showing that the percentage of US stocks with positive earnings revisions has been receding from its April high, according to Tim Hayes at Ned Davis Research.
“Earnings beat rate momentum peaked and is now negative,” said Hayes. “The breadth of positive earnings revisions has weakened. US revisions have declined, with negative implications for future earnings.”
If the earnings sentiment trends continue, they will warn not to ignore indications of significant tape deterioration, especially with other sentiment indicators confirming that peak optimism is behind us, he added.
“In terms of US equities ahead of elections next week, we are still watching the 5,750-5,800 zone for the S&P 500,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Measuring implications from recent bullish patterns still imply a target range of 6,200. However, we remain concerned regarding stubborn overbought/extended conditions on the longer-term charts.”
He says the index is still vulnerable to a “bigger correction” heading into year-end or (more likely) in the first quarter of 2025.
Companies looking to go public in the US this year have seemingly given up on the traditional window after the Labor Day holiday in September, dashing hopes for a rush of deals ahead of the presidential election.
Proceeds from inaugural share sales on the public markets have brought in $7.7 billion since Sept. 2, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
That’s about one-fifth of total volume so far and significantly lower than this time last year, when Arm Holdings Plc and others raised$9.6 billion.
Meanwhile, this month’s rout in Treasuries is hammering trend-chasing quant investors who had built up bullish positions in bonds, the latest setback for a strategy that has misfired badly at times this year amid market convulsions.
The quants, known as commodity trading advisers, seek to profit from momentum in assets such as bonds, stocks and currencies.
Most recently, they piled into wagers that US government debt would keep rallying as the Fed launched interest-rate cuts, amassing the largest long positions in three years as of late September, according to data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG.
And the price to hedge against swings in the US dollar surged to the highest in nearly two years as traders prepare for the risk of big market moves after next week’s presidential election.
A measure of one-week implied volatility on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose on Wednesday to the highest since December 2022, when recession fears briefly raced through financial markets.
That indicates traders are preparing for large swings in the currency against major peers like the euro, yen, Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, pushing up the cost of options that protect against such moves.

Corporate Highlights:
* Carvana Co. reported higher-than-expected results for the most recent quarter, buoyed by resilient used-car demand and pricing, and sounded a bullish note for its full-year earnings outlook.
* Clorox Co. raised its annual profit guidance after increased advertising helped the bleach maker fully regain the market share that it lost when a cyberattack disrupted production last year.
* MGM Resorts International reported lower-than-expected sales and profit for the third quarter amid a slowdown in Las Vegas betting.
* DoorDash Inc. beat Wall Street’s expectations on virtually every key earnings metric, allowing the delivery service to post its first operating profit since the start of the pandemic.
* Caterpillar Inc., the maker of iconic yellow bulldozers, reduced its sales outlook from a slowdown in construction activity around the world.
* AbbVie Inc. raised its full-year profit forecast as demand for its top-selling anti-inflammatory drugs, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, exceeded expectations.
* Humana Inc. issued a more optimistic 2024 forecast after third-quarter profit exceeded expectations, breaking with larger peers that have struggled to contain medical costs.
* Walt Disney Co. won the rights to broadcast the annual Grammy music awards in a 10-year deal that wrests the show from its longtime home on Paramount Global’s CBS.
* Bitcoin hedge-fund proxy MicroStrategy Inc. posted a third consecutive quarterly loss after taking an impairment charge against the value of its roughly $18 billion stockpile of the cryptocurrency.
* Airbus SE will replace the head of its commercial aircraft business and stick with a goal to deliver about 770 aircraft this year, underscoring the plane maker’s focus on ironing out supply-chain glitches that have hampered production plans.

Key events this week:
* China Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* Bank of Japan rate decision, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Thursday
* US personal income, spending and PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Amazon, Apple earnings, Thursday
* China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Friday
* US employment, ISM manufacturing, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0861
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2969
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 153.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $71,824.88
* Ether rose 1.3% to $2,655.02
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.39%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.35%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $68.92 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,787.59 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand and Rheaa Rao.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Children have never been very good at listening to their elders, but they have never failed to imitate them. –James Baldwin, 1924-1987.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
October 29, 1969: Internet created between Stanford & UCLA.
October 29, 1863: The Red Cross is founded.  As of today, the humanitarian institution has been a three-time recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.
On Oct. 29, 1929, stock prices collapsed on the New York Stock Exchange amid panic selling. Thousands of investors were wiped out.  Go to article 

October 29, 1859: Charles Ebbets, co-owner of the Brooklyn Dodgers, is born in Greenwich Village.
Richard Dreyfuss, actor, b 1947.
Winona Ryder, actress, b. 1971.

Anticipation builds for World Series Game 4 today
The Los Angeles Dodgers are just one win away from the franchise’s eighth World Series championship. The team could potentially clinch the title today in Game 4 against the New York Yankees.

Dwyane Wade’s new statue has people talking
A statue in honor of basketball Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade has gone viral, with many fans saying it doesn’t resemble the NBA legend. Here’s are six other sports statues that drew attention for the wrong reasons.

Apple debuts AI on the iPhone
The tech giant on Monday unveiled the initial features of Apple Intelligence — its suite of AI tools. Here’s what to look out for.

Japan’s iconic Mount Fuji has yet to see snow this winter
The peaks of Japan’s highest mountain are still snowless, marking the latest date without a snowcap since records began 130 years ago.

What’s the difference between a tsunami and a tidal wave?
Tsunamis and tidal waves are the powerful types of wave on Earth, but very different processes are involved in their formation. Read More.

Our brains can understand written sentences in the ‘blink of an eye,’ study reveals
Language processing happens at speeds significantly faster than it takes to speak one word aloud. Read More.

1,200 years ago, a cat in Jerusalem left the oldest known evidence of ‘making biscuits’ on a clay jug
Around 1,200 years ago, a cat “made biscuits,” kneading on a drying clay jug in Jerusalem, leaving behind the oldest evidence of this feline behavior on record. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New York, US
The New York City department of transportation unveils three sculptures in Times Square in celebration of Dia de los Muertos (Day of the Dead)
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

A bee collects pollen from a dahlia flower at the National Trust property Greys Court, Oxfordshire, UK
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Handan, China
A woman arranges persimmons in special racks for drying
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 29^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42233.05	-154.52
		-0.36%
S&P 500	5832.92	+9.40
		+0.16%
NASDAQ	18712.75	+145.56
		+0.78%
TSX	24562.55	-3.11
		-0.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38903.68	+298.15
		+0.77%
HANG SENG	20701.14	+101.78
		+0.49%
SENSEX	80369.03	+363.99
		+0.46%
FTSE 100*	8219.61	-66.01
		-0.80%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.246	3.270
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.357	3.398
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2541	4.2821
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4985	4.5292

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7187	0.7197
US $	1.3914	1.3894

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5056	0.6642
US $	1.0821	0.9242

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2741.80	2731.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.21	71.99

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, panicked selling continued to sweep Wall Street, sending the Dow down more than 18% in intraday trading. The multiday market selloff ushered in the Great Depression
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 24,562.55 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 111 of 222 shares fell, while 103 rose.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%.
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.3%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 2.3%
* The index advanced 31% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 41% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 31.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.89t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.76% compared with 6.79% in the previous session and the average of 8.36% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -31.1120| -0.7| 10/27
Utilities | -16.8979| -1.8| 0/15
Financials | -15.2184| -0.2| 15/11
Communication Services | -6.5350| -0.9| 0/5
Consumer Staples | -5.9954| -0.6| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -5.6161| -0.7| 3/8
Real Estate | -1.9336| -0.4| 3/15
Health Care | -0.4950| -0.6| 0/3
Industrials | 13.6760| 0.4| 17/10
Information Technology | 20.3826| 1.0| 9/1
Materials | 46.6253| 1.5| 43/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | -12.6800| -1.7| 71.4| 40.5
TD Bank | -10.0100| -1.1| -45.4| -9.7
Enbridge | -8.3710| -1.0| -33.0| 17.9
Shopify | 9.1390| 1.0| -20.1| 8.6
Waste Connections | 9.8490| 2.2| 77.6| 27.0
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 11.2700| 2.7| 16.1| 70.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in some of the largest tech companies pushed stocks higher, with Alphabet Inc. rallying in late hours as earnings beat estimates.
The Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high, while the S&P 500 saw a mild gain.
Between Tuesday and Thursday, big techs with a combined market value of more than $12 trillion report their quarterly results.
Shares of Google’s parent climbed 3.5% after the close of regular trading.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. sank 6% amid a lackluster revenue forecast.
“Investors will need to see bigger revenue and earnings surprises for the group to outperform,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research. “Our sense is a solid earnings season could once again put the group on a path to outperform into year-end.”
Just about a week away from the Federal Reserve decision, data showed US job openings fell to the lowest since early 2021.
The figures run counter to the September employment report that pointed to a still-strong labor market, which prompted traders to trim bets on another big rate cut.
A separate reading showed consumer confidence hit the highest since the start of the year.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%.
Bitcoin’s rally put the cryptocurrency on the verge of topping a record high of almost $74,000 reached in March.
Treasury 10-year yields declined two basis points to 4.27%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Reddit Inc. beat sales expectations for the third quarter and projected a strong holiday season as the newly public company continues to see its investments in advertising technology pay off.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reported third-quarter sales that fell just short of Wall Street’s expectations, highlighting the high bar investors are holding the chain to after strong performance earlier this year.
* Visa Inc. reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Homebuilder stocks are tumbled after industry bellwether D.R. Horton Inc. delivered a 2025 revenue forecast that failed to meet Wall Street’s expectations.
* Broadcom Inc. rallied after Reuters reported that OpenAI is working with the company on a new artificial-intelligence chip.
* Pfizer Inc. Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said he’ll do “whatever it takes” to keep profits growing, including further cost cuts, as he seeks to fend off allegations of mismanagement from activist investor Starboard Value LP.
* McDonald’s Corp. sales fell short of Wall Street’s expectations in the third quarter following weakness in international markets such as France, China, the UK and the Middle East.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. raised its earnings outlook for a fourth time this year and said it expects strong demand to continue.
* JetBlue Airways Corp.’s worse-than-expected sales forecast suggested a recovery will take some time.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone consumer confidence, GDP, Wednesday
* US GDP, ADP employment, pending home sales, Wednesday
* Meta Platforms, Microsoft earnings, Wednesday
* US Treasury Department holds quarterly refunding announcement of bond-auction plans, Wednesday
* China Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* Bank of Japan rate decision, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Thursday
* US personal income, spending and PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Amazon, Apple earnings, Thursday
* China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Friday
*US employment, ISM manufacturing, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0813
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3004
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 153.44 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $72,510.01
* Ether rose 4.3% to $2,624.19
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.34%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.32%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $67.24 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.1% to $2,772.44 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
What we do now echoes in eternity. -Marcus Aurelius, 121 AD-180 AD.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday!
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

October 28, 1538 The first university in the New World, the Universidad Santo Tomás de Aquino, is established on Hispaniola.
October 28, 1636 Harvard University, Cambridge, founded by a vote of the Massachusetts General Court.
October 28, 1886 Statue of Liberty is dedicated by President Grover Cleveland, celebrated by the first confetti (ticker tape) parade in New York City.

Will Mount Everest always be the world’s tallest mountain?
The Himalayas’ massive heights result from a unique combination of geologic factors. To answer this question, Read more.

AI ‘can stunt the skills necessary for independent self-creation’: Relying on algorithms could reshape your entire identity without you realizing
“If you constantly use an AI to find the music, career or political candidate you like, you might eventually forget how to do this yourself.” Ethicist Muriel Leuenberger considers the personal impact of relying on AI.

James Webb Space Telescope sees lonely supermassive black hole-powered quasars in the early universe
The James Webb Space Telescope has discovered lonely quasars in the early universe, with “empty larders” that defy theories surrounding their growth to monster sizes.

1,300-year-old throne room of powerful Moche queen discovered in Peru
Archaeologists in Peru have unearthed the throne room of a powerful queen from the Moche culture, and detailed murals of the female ruler decorate its walls.

‘We don’t really consider it low probability anymore’: Collapse of key Atlantic current could have catastrophic impacts, says oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf
The Atlantic Ocean’s most vital ocean current is showing troubling signs of reaching a disastrous tipping point. Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf tells Live Science what the impacts could be.

PICTURES OF THE DAY

Toulouse, France
Spectators watch a creature called Lilith, the Guardian of Darkness, during a street show by La Machine
Photograph: Matthieu Rondel/AFP/Getty Images

Bangkok, Thailand
A royal barge carrying Princess Sirivannavari Nariratana takes part in a procession in front of the Grand Palace on the Chao Phraya river
Photograph: Manan Vatsyayana/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Sheffield Park, East Sussex
Visitors enjoy the autumn colours
Photograph: David Levene/The Guardian
Market Closes for October 28^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42387.57	+273.17
		+0.65%
S&P 500	5823.52	+15.40
		+0.27%
NASDAQ	18567.19	+48.58
		+0.26%
TSX	24565.66	+101.99
		+0.42%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38605.53	+691.61
		+1.82%
HANG SENG	20599.36	+9.21
		+0.04%
SENSEX	80005.04	+602.75
		+0.76%
FTSE 100*	8285.62	+36.78
		+0.45%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.270	3.257
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.398	3.390
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2821	4.2399
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5292	4.4995

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7197	0.7199
US $	1.3894	1.3890

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5023	0.6656
US $	1.0812	0.9249

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2731.45	2732.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.99	71.99

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1976, Alice Jarcho became the first woman to work full-time as a broker on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 24,565.66 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.5% on Oct. 18 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 117 of 222 shares rose, while 105 fell.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.5%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 2.4%
* The index advanced 31% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 41% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 31.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.88t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.79% compared with 6.86% in the previous session and the average of 8.44% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 74.8897| 1.0| 24/3
Consumer Staples | 19.0369| 2.0| 7/4
Industrials | 18.9299| 0.6| 18/9
Information Technology | 17.6114| 0.9| 8/2
Consumer Discretionary | 9.2844| 1.1| 9/2
Communication Services | 3.8073| 0.5| 2/3
Materials | 2.1621| 0.1| 18/33
Health Care | 0.6119| 0.8| 3/1
Real Estate | -0.3084| -0.1| 13/7
Utilities | -1.0189| -0.1| 9/6
Energy | -43.0046| -1.0| 6/35
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 20.8700| 1.2| 36.0| 28.6
Brookfield Corp | 16.2100| 2.2| 25.9| 42.9
Couche-Tard | 15.1400| 3.9| 57.5| -4.9
TC Energy | -4.8590| -1.0| -47.9| 37.9
Suncor | -6.4830| -1.4| 28.2| 25.9
Canadian Natural Resources | -17.4000| -2.4| -36.2| 11.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose at the start of the busiest week for corporate earnings, with traders also gearing up for the US election and key economic data that will set the stage for the next Federal Reserve decision.
Most major groups in the S&P 500 gained, though energy shares joined a slide in oil.
Crypto companies surged, with Bitcoin up about 3%.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. soared 22% as retail traders touted the stock after Donald Trump’s high-profile event in New York Sunday.
The company has traded like a proxy for sentiment of his perceived chances of returning to the White House, with recent moves more correlated with betting markets as opposed to actual polling.
Conservative video network company Rumble Inc. climbed 14%.
In late hours, Ford Motor Co. dropped after trimming its profit forecast.
A victory for Trump would be more beneficial for stocks and Bitcoin relative to his Democratic opponent, while a Kamala Harris presidency would bring slightly more relief to housing costs, according to a Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Some 38% of respondents see equities accelerating a year from now under the Republican candidate, versus 13% under the Democrat.
“Markets have been extremely active over the past month as traders have juiced up the already ebullient scenario baked into equity valuations, adding improved odds of a Republican sweep to the list of goodies discounted,” said Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management says the pre-election jitters still haven’t shown up in the stock market.
The S&P 500 hasn’t had a 1% up or down day this month.
If that continues to be the case, it will be the first October without a move that big since 2017, she said.
It’d also be the first October of an election year without a 1% move since 1968.
“We’re heading into a busy two weeks,” Cox said.
“The election conversation will be the loudest, but the packed slate of earnings and economic data could be what markets care about the most. And the results could be noisy, especially from the jobs side.”
A week before Fed gathers to reflect on the appropriate tempo of rates cuts, data is set to show underlying resilience in the US economy and a temporary hiccup in jobs growth.
Investors are also awaiting results from firms accounting for nearly 42% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, including several big techs like as Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc.
The S&P 500 rose 0.3%.
The Nasdaq 100 was little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%.
The Russell 2000 of small caps climbed 1.6%.
Bonds fell amid weak demand for a pair of US note sales.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced three basis points to 4.27%.
Oil tumbled as Israel limited Iran strikes to military targets.
“This week’s megacap tech earnings and jobs data will provide plenty of potential fuel for near-term market momentum, but it remains to be seen whether investors will want to sit on their hands until after next week’s election, especially given the volatility around the past two,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Equities sold off the week before the 2016 and 2020 elections and rallied sharply after them, he noted.
To Saira Malik at Nuveen, it is critical to remain focused on long-term investment goals and attentive to the broader economic backdrop and company fundamentals, as election-driven volatility has historically been short-lived.
“With that in mind, corporate earnings, inflation and the direction of interest rates should continue to be the structural drivers of financial markets,” she said. “This was evident in the recent backup in US Treasury yields after they bottomed in mid-September following the Fed’s rate cut. Since then, the uptick in yields, paired with underlying fundamentals, may have created another attractive entry point for one of our favored fixed-income sectors.”
Although the polls are extremely tight, and it’s anyone’s race to win, the stock and bond markets have shown recent momentum that appears to favor a result that puts former President Trump back in the White House, according to Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Government bond yields have risen, the US dollar has strengthened, and areas of the stock market that would benefit from less regulation and lower taxes have ground higher,” he said. “Some of this is related to a strong economy and growing profits, while some of this momentum may be attributed to investors increasingly discounting a Trump victory.”
“In our view, the market can perform well through year-end whether Vice President Harris or former President Trump wins in November,” he said. “We believe fundamental conditions in the US are solid, seasonality factors/historical trends are favorable for stocks, and known election results, which let investors finally move on from the election, could see major equity averages press higher into the end of the year.”
Investors expect large caps to lead under all election outcomes except a Republican sweep, according to a survey conducted by 22V Research.
“Under a Republican sweep, investors think small caps will lead. Protectionist tariffs, and friendlier tax policies for US earnings, may help explain the dynamic of expectations for higher rates and small cap outperformance under a Republican sweep,” th firm said.
Based on the firm’s client interactions, investors are focused on the implications for tariffs under Trump more so than deficit spending, for which there are safeguards, 22V said.
And under a Trump presidency, investors expect 10-year yields to increase.
More if there is a Republican sweep. Expectations for those bonds are split between higher and lower under a Harris presidency.
US stocks are broadly leaning toward the playbook seen during the 2016 presidential elections, although the signals are more mixed this time around against a different economic backdrop, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
The team led by Michael Wilson says that an outperformance in financials and industrials stocks shows market moves are directionally similar to those seen in 2016 to some extent.
Materials and small caps — which were relative outperformers around the 2016 election — have modestly trailed since Oct. 1, when the probability of a Trump win began to rise more materially in betting markets, they said.
While so-called “Trump trades” have gained popularity as odds in favor of the former President winning the election rise, Citigroup Inc. says the vote is a close call and some rotation may be seen in the run-up to Nov. 5.
Strategists including David Groman and Beata Manthey said popular Trump trades such as long dollar, short rates, long US vs rest-of-the-world equities have rallied, as consensus leans toward a red sweep — limiting further upside in near term.
Meanwhile, a global strategy betting on a Harris victory is premised on a weaker dollar, lower nominal yields, potential tax hikes, and a general tilt toward climate-friendly policies, implying favoring rest-of-the-world equities vs US, non-US industrials vs energy and health care, as well as emerging-market stocks sensitive to a weaker dollar.
“With a week to go to the election and polls indicating a dead heat, investors are unlikely to take on much new risk, and may even prefer to de-risk until the outcome is known,” said Jason Draho at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Once the dust settles and the outcome is clear, the macro fundamentals should reclaim their spot in the driver’s seat, determining the market direction.”
“Have you heard the one about the markets preferring divided government?” said Brian Levitt at Invesco. “Of course you have. Is it true? Admittedly, the numbers do bear it out although I would argue the analysis isn’t statistically significant. Rather, the returns in most instances tend to be driven by a handful of notable years.”
Levitt looks at two potential 2024 divided-government outcomes:
1) Republican President, Republican Senate, Democratic House (which has resulted in the second-best outcome for stocks)
and 2) Democratic President, Republican Senate, Democratic House (this combination hasn’t happened since 1886-1889, leaving it out of the period of the analysis.)
“For what it’s worth, the US stock market posted positive strong returns in recent examples of single-party rule, including under Democrat Bill Clinton (1993-1994), Republican George W. Bush (2005-2006), and Democrat Barack Obama (2009-2010),” he said. “Everyone may ‘know’ that the market does best under a divided government, or everyone might just be confusing correlation with causation.”
Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni says the approaching US election could augur the return of the market’s bond vigilantes as the Treasury Department readies new debt issuance plans.
It’s a call the founder of Yardeni Research, who famously coined the phrase in the 1980s to describe investors selling bonds to set the US government back on a course of fiscal restraint, has made before.
“It’s a conceivable scenario that the bond vigilantes are definitely mounting up,” Yardeni told Bloomberg Television on Monday. “There’s no discussion by either candidate about doing anything to reduce the deficit to deal with the debt, to deal with the exploding net interest expense of the government.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc., heralding a “new era” for its devices, started rolling out its first set of Apple Intelligence features and introduced a new 24-inch iMac desktop with an AI-focused M4 processor.
* Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc. is working on developing a search engine that crawls the web for information to provide to people using its AI chatbot, the Information reported.
* McDonald’s Corp. sales plummeted following news of E. coli infections linked to the chain’s Quarter Pounders.
* Boeing Co. launched a nearly $19 billion share sale, one of the largest ever by a public company, to address the troubled planemaker’s liquidity needs and stave off a potential credit rating downgrade to junk.
* Estée Lauder Cos. has picked longtime executive Stéphane de La Faverie to take over as chief executive officer, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
* Volkswagen AG plans to close at least three factories, eliminate thousands of jobs and slash wages for tens of thousands of German workers as Europe’s biggest automaker tries to halt its tailspin.
* The fate of Johnson & Johnson’s latest push to use bankruptcy courts to end thousands of cancer lawsuits tied to its iconic baby powder now hinges on a high-stakes trial in January.

Key events this week:
* US job openings, Conference Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
* Alphabet earnings, Tuesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, GDP, Wednesday
* US GDP, ADP employment, pending home sales, Wednesday
* Meta Platforms, Microsoft earnings, Wednesday
* US Treasury Department holds quarterly refunding announcement of bond-auction plans, Wednesday
* China Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* Bank of Japan rate decision, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Thursday
* US personal income, spending and PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Amazon, Apple earnings, Thursday
* China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Friday
* US employment, ISM manufacturing, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0817
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2974
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 153.23 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.8% to $69,606.32
* Ether rose 0.7% to $2,506.74
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.29%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.25%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.3% to $68.01 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,742.75 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” The human being is born with an incurable capacity for making the best of things.” — Helen Keller

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

October 25, 1861: Toronto Stock Exchange created.
October 25, 2001: Microsoft releases Windows XP for retail sale
October 25, 2021 NASA scientists announce they may have detected the first planet outside our galaxy, in Whirlpool Galaxy (M51), 28 million light-years away

Scientists launch amazing ‘atlas’ of embryos, showing how cells move and develop through time
“Zebrahub” is an atlas of cells in developing zebrafish embryos, and scientists say it will help us learn about our own biology, too. Read more.

Parents who have this gene may be more likely to have a girl
A large new analysis suggests that some people carry genetic variants that make them more likely to have female than male offspring. Read more.

New device ‘zaps’ bacteria on the skin, potentially preventing infections
Early experiments suggest a patch that delivers harmless electric currents into the skin can thwart certain bacterial infections. However, it has not yet been tested in humans. Read more.

Perseverance rover watches a solar eclipse on Mars
NASA’s Perseverance rover turned its eyes toward the sky and photographed a solar eclipse from Mars, capturing the tiny moon Phobos crossing the sun’s face.

PICTURES OF THE DAY

Makow Podhalanski, Poland
An aerial view of trees under a morning fog and lit by the sunrise of a golden autumn morning
Photograph: Omar Marques/Anadolu/Getty Images

Nanjing City, China
Tourists enjoy the blooming of pink muhly grass in the eastern province of Jiangsu
Photograph: Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​California, US
Californians are welcome to try one of the world’s largest corn mazes, which is open in Dixon until 31 October
Photograph: Fred Greaves/Reuters
Market Closes for October 25^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42114.40	-259.96
		-0.61%
S&P 500	5808.12	-1.74
		-0.03%
NASDAQ	18518.61	+103.12
		+0.56%
TSX	24463.67	-87.88
		-0.36%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37913.92	-229.37
		-0.60%
HANG SENG	20590.15	+100.53
		+0.49%
SENSEX	79402.29	-662.87
		-0.83%
FTSE 100*	8248.84	-20.54
		-0.25%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.257	3.240
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.390	3.369
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2399	4.2118
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4995	4.4739

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7199	0.7217
US $	1.3890	1.3855

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5002	0.6666
US $	1.0800	0.9259

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2732.00	2736.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.99	71.26

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1907: As the year’s financial panic continued, J.P. Morgan raised still more cash to prop up struggling brokerage firms, this time flushing up $10 million to lend at the New York Stock Exchange. Brokers shouted with joy on seeing the cigar-chomping Morgan barging back to his office to announce that he had raised the money.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fifth day, dropping 0.4%, or 87.88 to 24,463.67 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Oct. 15.
Barrick Gold Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.2%.
Storage Vault Canada Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.9%.
Today, 136 of 223 shares fell, while 84 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 6
* The index advanced 29% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 38% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.8% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 30.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.89t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.86% compared with 6.73% in the previous session and the average of 8.71% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -39.1817| -0.5| 6/21
Materials | -23.0742| -0.7| 18/34
Industrials | -18.6556| -0.6| 9/18
Information Technology | -14.8415| -0.7| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -8.0061| -1.0| 2/8
Consumer Staples | -6.0264| -0.6| 4/7
Communication Services | -5.7261| -0.8| 1/4
Real Estate | -4.8502| -0.9| 3/16
Utilities | -1.0964| -0.1| 6/9
Health Care | 0.2990| 0.4| 2/2
Energy | 33.2928| 0.8| 31/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Barrick Gold | -10.9000| -3.2| 27.8| 13.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -10.3000| -1.5| -34.4| 2.2
RBC | -9.6890| -0.6| 36.1| 27.0
TC Energy | 4.3490| 0.9| -70.9| 39.3
Suncor | 7.0120| 1.5| -57.4| 27.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.6000| 1.6| -71.2| 13.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in stocks faded as banks dragged down the broader market despite gains in tech shares.
Bitcoin slumped after a news report that federal investigators are probing cryptocurrency firm Tether.
The S&P 500 was little changed after climbing almost 1%.
Banks got hit as New York Community Bancorp tumbled 8.3% on a weaker outlook.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped 2.3% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. lost 1.2%. Crypto shares sank as the Wall Street Journal said the US is investigating Tether for possible violations of sanctions and anti-money-laundering rules.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps notched its best back-to-back jump since February.
Treasuries wrapped up a tumultuous week with saw small moves as caution prevailed ahead of key events.
As the earnings season rolled in, traders also braced for the US presidential election and key economic data — including next week’s jobs report — for clues on the scope for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
“Investors are still very cautious as we approach a pivotal couple of weeks,” said Henry Allen at Deutsche Bank. “So there’s been a reluctance to push the rally much further before we get some clarity on those, all of which will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook as we move into next year.”
The S&P 500 saw its first down week since early September.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.6% Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%.
The KBW Bank Index dropped 1.4%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” rose 1.3%.
Bitcoin fell 2%.
Treasury 10-year yields rose three basis points to 4.24%.
Oil climbed as traders kept an eye on the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict and a deluge of other potentially pivotal market drivers.
Five of the “Mag Seven” report earnings next week, with Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. poised for double-digit earnings growth fueled by ad spending.
Apple Inc. could get a fillip from Chinese sales of its latest iPhones, while Microsoft Corp. may use its earnings call to address concerns that it’s lagging rivals in artificial intelligence.
“These reports will likely be critical in shaping how investors view the overall third quarter earnings season,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise. “As long as fundamental conditions remain firm, the bull market should continue to ride the near-term ups and downs in sentiment.”
Tech behemoths have driven the bulk of the equity-market advance this year, but they trailed last quarter as the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since 2020, supporting sectors like financials and utilities.
The latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey published earlier this week showed takers anticipate the tech giants will take the lead again.
A combined 75% expect the “Magnificent Seven” to either beat or perform in line with the rest of the market this quarter.
One reason investors remain bullish is that the bulk of the S&P 500’s earnings growth still comes from big tech.
“Expectations for the next few quarters still favor technology driving the earnings growth bus, and the ‘Mag Seven’ is obviously driving technology earnings,” said Nancy Tengler at Laffer Tengler Investments.
“Overall, we expect big tech earnings next week will display a mix of steady operational performance, AI-led revenue acceleration, and resilient advertising that signals ongoing health and innovation,” said Ido Caspi at Global X.
“More so, we expect to see further evidence of generative AI moving along its growth curve and continued shift from experimentation to widespread monetization.”
One event that tech-stock watchers will be focusing on is Nvidia Corp.’s earnings, to be released in November.
The company’s last report drove the chipmaker’s shares down in the following days.
This time around, the biggest group of Markets Live Pulse survey respondents, 45%, see the results pushing the stock up.
Nvidia has been the poster child for the boom in AI technology, with its stock almost tripling this year.
“Earnings season is heating up and we will soon hear from big tech companies and the latest on their artificial intelligence spend,” said David Laut at Abound Financial.
“For big tech, this is the show me the money quarter, as investors are becoming impatient with AI spend that may or may not yield extra profits.
Tech valuations are priced for perfection and any disappointment could spark a pullback.”
From a fundamental standpoint, sales growth for the “Big Three” — Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple — is expected to lag the rest of the tech sector — but seen accelerating though the end of 2025, with the rest of the industry expected to decelerate, according to Ryan Grabinski at Strategas Securities.
“However, the acceleration the ‘Big Three’ group is expected to see in net income is likely to keep a bid toward the names compared to the rest of the index,” he noted.
Grabinski also said that perhaps most interesting is that the margin expansion expected to occur for the tech sector is not heavily concentrated in the “Big Three”.
In fact, the contribution for them is expected to remain static at about 45% through the end of 2025, he noted.
While most of this year’s S&P 500 record highs occurred during low VIX Index readings, all-time highs set in recent weeks have accompanied wider price swings.
This isn’t necessarily something to worry about.
“Periods of rising volatility within bull markets are not necessarily cause for concern but rather an indication of a maturing rally,” note strategists at Tier 1 Alpha.
Risk assets remain in the throes of a powerful year-end rally consistent with our 6,200 S&P 500 target, according to Rich Ross at Evercore.
The gauge closed around 5,808 on Friday.
He noted that advance would be driven by a bullish expansion of breadth across “Big Tech, Banks, Bullion and Bitcoin” and set against a Goldilocks macro backdrop.
On the economic front, data Friday showed sentiment among US consumers increased in October to a six-month high as households grew more upbeat about buying conditions.
They expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 2.7% over the next year, unchanged from the prior month.
And see costs rising 3% on average over the next five to 10 years, down from 3.1% in the prior month.
“Certainly better news for Jerome Powell and Company,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. “Consumers feel confident that inflation is easing.
Investors are anticipating next Friday’s employment release as the Fed attempts to stick the soft landing.”
Treasury traders are wrapping up a wild week in which a gauge of bond-market volatility soared to a new high for the year, suggesting more upheaval to come.
The severity of this week’s back and forth suggests even greater volatility in coming days, when the US bond market must weather a myriad of events — from key jobs data, to the US election, to a meeting by the Fed.
The ICE BofA Move Index, which tracks expected swings in Treasuries in the coming month, climbed to the highest level this year on Tuesday.
October’s jobs report will likely register the first negative payroll print in about four years, according to Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics.
While analysts may discount the weakness due to transitory weather effects, she says cyclical factors will also play a substantial role.
“We look for a downshift in payroll growth to 120,000 in October and a steady unemployment rate,” said BNP Paribas economists.
“We expect Fed officials to look through the weak number given negative storm and strike effects.”
“If the report proves surprisingly strong on all key dimensions though, we expect it would add to murmurs of a Fed pause as early as December. Even so, a near-term pivot could prove difficult given inflation progress and the consensus Fed view that policy rates are still restrictive,” they said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Donald Trump’s social media venture has more than tripled in the five weeks since they bottomed out after the expiration of a lockup period that prevented insiders from selling the stock.
* Capri Holdings Ltd. plunged after a federal judge blocked the company’s planned $8.5 billion acquisition by Tapestry Inc., which rallied.
* Boeing Co. is exploring a sale of its space division as the troubled planemaker’s new leader looks to streamline and focus the company on its core operations, according to the Wall Street Journal.
* Apple Inc. was downgraded to underweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets, which questioned the company’s lofty growth expectations.
* Capital One Financial Corp. posted a profit that beat Wall Street estimates on strength in its credit-card and auto-lending businesses.
* Centene Corp. jumped after the health insurer’s third-quarter profits exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, a relief for investors braced for a tough quarter.
* Deckers Outdoor Corp. rallied after the maker of Hoka running shoes and UGG boots posted sales that beat the average analyst estimate and boosted its sales forecast for the year.
* Western Digital Corp. reported adjusted first-quarter earnings that beat expectations. Analysts note that the company’s NAND flash memory segment is holding up better than expected.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.1%
* KBW Bank Index fell 1.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0796
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2960
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 152.24 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $66,773.01
* Ether fell 2.5% to $2,473.72
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.24%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.29%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.23%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.1% to $71.67 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,742.86 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely weekend.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Let me tell you the secret that has led me to my goal. My strength lies solely in my tenacity.” — Louis Pasteur
 

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

October 24, 1861: First US transcontinental telegram is sent (from San Francisco to Washington, D.C.)
October 24, 1901: First woman to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel (Anna Taylor)

How old is planet Earth?
Our planet’s age is known from a variety of sources, from rocks on our own planet to ones from the moon. Read more.

Scientists build the smallest quantum computer in the world — it works at room temperature and you can fit it on your desk
The smallest machine of its kind in the world uses a single photon as its qubit and it can perform calculations without needing the cumbersome equipment to cool it down to near absolute zero.

Watch huge fireball blaze over Lake Erie in stunning videos
A fiery meteor shot across the sky above the Great Lakes just after sunset, stunning witnesses from Michigan to New York, Kentucky and North Carolina.

4 large asteroids, including a skyscraper-size ‘city killer,’ will zoom past Earth in a 12-hour span today (Oct. 24)
Four “potentially hazardous” space rocks, which are between 100 and 580 feet across, will all make their closest approaches to Earth within less than 12 hours of one another on Thursday (Oct. 24). Two of them were only discovered earlier this month. Read more.

What is the largest known prime number?
There are infinitely many prime numbers, but the biggest one we know of goes by the name M136279841 and contains more than 41 million digits. Read more.

PICTURES OF THE DAY

Brasília, Brazil
An Indigenous person leaves after the signing ceremony for a decree demarcating new lands, in front of the ministry of justice. The Brazilian government signed a directive to delimit seven new Indigenous lands of the Guarani in the industrialised state of São Paulo, which together add up to an area of nearly 20,000 hectares
Photograph: André Borges/EPA

Panama City, Panama
The minister of culture of Panama, Maruja Herrera (R), appears in the ballet Giselle. Herrera returned to the stage as a dancer, performing in the classic ballet as part of two special galas of the National Ballet of Panama to raise funds for charity
Photograph: Bienvenido Velasco/EPA

County Wicklow, Ireland
‘Autumn leaves signal the end of the summer season at Mount Usher Gardens.’
Photograph: Ann Egan
Market Closes for October 24^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42374.36	-140.59
		-0.33%
S&P 500	5809.86	+12.44
		+0.21%
NASDAQ	18415.49	+138.84
		+0.76%
TSX	24551.55	-22.07
		-0.09%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38143.29	+38.43
		+0.10%
HANG SENG	20489.62	-270.53
		-1.30%
SENSEX	80065.16	-16.82
		-0.02%
FTSE 100*	8269.38	+10.74
		+0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.240	3.264
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.369	3.413
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2118	4.2456
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4739	4.5182

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7217	0.7227
US $	1.3855	1.3837

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4997	0.6668
US $	1.0824	0.9239

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2736.45	2736.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.26	71.26

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929: Stocks plunged in morning trading before a group of Wall Street bankers attempted to stem panic by buying stocks. The day became known as Black Thursday and marked the beginning of a multiday market crash that preceded the Great Depression.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 24,551.55 in Toronto.
Teck Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 5.4%.
Today, 107 of 223 shares fell, while 114 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 2.3%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.1%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 6
* The index advanced 29% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 36% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.5% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 31.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.89t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.73% compared with 7.29% in the previous session and the average of 8.86% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -21.1981| -0.7| 27/25
Industrials | -15.8798| -0.5| 9/18
Consumer Staples | -10.4272| -1.1| 3/8
Communication Services | -7.2330| -1.0| 1/4
Utilities | -5.7472| -0.6| 2/13
Consumer Discretionary | -2.4292| -0.3| 5/6
Health Care | -0.2251| -0.3| 2/2
Real Estate | 3.7954| 0.7| 8/11
Financials | 5.6015| 0.1| 16/11
Energy | 12.8030| 0.3| 33/7
Information Technology | 18.8798| 0.9| 7/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Teck Resources | -12.0000| -5.4| 77.0| 16.7
Couche-Tard | -8.0570| -2.0| 31.5| -7.7
Barrick Gold | -7.5920| -2.2| 56.9| 17.6
Brookfield Corp | 4.5270| 0.6| -1.2| 41.6
Brookfield Asset Management | 6.9550| 3.8| 38.3| 36.7
Celestica | 12.0100| 18.3| 282.2| 142.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose for the first time this week, with traders parsing a slew of corporate earnings for clues on the health of the world’s largest economy.
Treasuries rebounded after days of losses.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” hit a three-month high, with Tesla Inc. up 22% in its biggest rally since May 2013.
Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle giant reported strong earnings and forecast as much as 30% growth in car sales next year.
United Parcel Service Inc. — an economic barometer — jumped 5.3% after returning to sales and profit growth.
International Business Machines Corp. and Honeywell International Inc.’s results failed to inspire.
“Despite the possibility of more volatility as we get deeper into earnings season and close in on the November election, the market’s longer-term outlook remains solid,” said Daniel Skelly at Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy team.
The market barely budged after Thursday’s economic data, with new home sales beating estimates, initial jobless claims dropping and business activity expanding at a solid pace.
“Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations (so not too good or too bad) is the best outcome for a continued rebound in stocks and bonds,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, reclaiming its 5,800 mark.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.8%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3%, posting a fourth consecutive day of losses — the longest losing streak since June.
In late hours, Tapestry Inc. — the maker of Kate Spade handbags — rallied as a judge blocked the planned acquisition of rival Capri Holdings Ltd.
US 10-year yields fell four basis points to 4.20%.
A $24 billion five-year TIPS auction drew the lowest yield this year as inflation-protected Treasuries have outperformed since the Federal Reserve cut rates last month.
Oil dropped as oversupply concerns overshadowed the risks from Israel’s potential retaliatory strike on Iran.
“The market appears to be driven by the projected outcome of the earnings reporting period, the presidential election, and the bond market’s interpretation of future monetary actions by the Federal Reserve,” said Sam Stovall at CFRA. “Investors see the resiliency of the economy and employment forcing the Fed to be ‘slower to lower’ on rates.”
He still sees two 25 basis-point rate cuts in 2024.
Money markets are currently pricing about an 85% chance the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point next month, and around 135 basis points of easing by the end of 2025.
While the equity market is still down for the week, the slide did little to dent the wall of bullish technical signals built up around the S&P 500.
The US stock benchmark continues to trade comfortably above its 200-day moving average, clocking more than 240 straight days above the closely watched long-term line.
In the prior 13 instances when the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day average for at least 242 consecutive days, with the index less than 3% below a record, the gauge proceeded to post a median gain of 7.2% in the next six months, advancing in all but two cases, SentimenTrader’s analysis found.
“Near term, pullbacks/profit-taking should be expected given the uncertainties around the upcoming US presidential election, geopolitical uncertainty, and the earnings parade,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“No change to our 2024 year end S&P 500 price objective of 6,100.”
“We see room for US stocks to move higher. We hold an attractive view on the IT sector, as well as the utilities, financials, consumer discretionary, and communication services sectors,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research notes that market concentration is at the highest levels since the 1960’s “Nifty Fifty” era — with the top seven companies accounting for about 30% of the market weight and the top 25 companies at 48%.
During the 1960’s and 1970’s, these market darlings were characterized by their consistent earnings growth and highprice- to-earnings ratios similar in respects to the “Magnificent Seven”, he said.
Ultimately, what broke the trend was the inflationary environment of the 1970’s and the ensuing mid-70’s and early 80’s recessions.
“In a similar vein, we don’t see current trends breaking until the next recession and/or when AI enthusiasm substantially wanes,” Senyek added.
“With that said, we remain bullish on the market broadening out consistent with our call to own earlier cyclical stocks (FINs is our favorite).”

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg’s quest to stabilize the struggling US planemaker suffered a stinging setback after factory workers rejected a new labor contract that would have increased their wages by 35% over four years.
* American Airlines Group Inc. boosted its full-year profit guidance, highlighting progress rebuilding from a failed sales strategy while it grapples with persistently high costs.
* Southwest Airlines Co. reported third-quarter profit more than double Wall Street’s estimates, a needed boost as the carrier tries to shore up financial results following a bruising fight with activist Elliott Investment Management that came to an end Thursday.
* ServiceNow Inc. reported strong third-quarter sales and bookings as the software company expands its suite of AI tools.
* Whirlpool Corp., the owner of Maytag, reported better than expected earnings, and reaffirming its full-year sales forecast.
* Harley-Davidson Inc.’s motorcycle shipments fell in the latest quarter on lower demand for its high-margin bikes, prompting a downward revision in its full-year forecast.
* Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn said there’s “a lot to like” about fitness company Peloton Interactive Inc., despite the stock’s plunge over the past three years.

* US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 3.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0829
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2976
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 151.84 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $68,258.43
* Ether rose 1% to $2,537.84
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.20%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.27%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $70.51 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,736.73 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Keep true to the dreams of your youth.”– Friedrich Von Schiller

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Before and after satellite images show lakes appearing across Sahara after deluge of rain soaks desert
Lakes appearing in the Sahara desert captured in satellite images after a cyclone dumped a years’ worth of rain on northern Africa in just a few days.

Tiny photosynthetic aliens could be lurking in hidden bubbles in Mars’ ice — and could soon be replicated on Earth
A new NASA-led study suggests that photosynthetic microbes could thrive in hidden bubbles of meltwater below patches of ice on Mars. This could be one of the easiest places to search for extraterrestrial life “anywhere in the universe,” the team says.

2,000-year-old temple from ‘Indiana Jones civilization’ found submerged off Italy
An ancient temple made by Arabian immigrants from the Nabataean culture has finally been found off the Italian coast near Naples.

Largest known prime number, spanning 41 million digits, discovered by amateur mathematician using free software
The largest known prime number has been discovered, smashing the previous record by more than 16 million digits.

1st wheel was invented 6,000 years ago in the Carpathian Mountains, modeling study suggests
It’s possible that the wheel was invented by copper miners in the Carpathian Mountains up to 6,000 years ago, according to a modeling study that uses techniques from structural mechanics.

Doctors no longer recommend ‘self-checks’ for breast cancer — here’s what to know
Breast self-exams used to be recommended as a part of routine breast cancer screening. Here’s why the guidelines changed and what experts recommend instead. Read more.

PICTURES OF THE DAY

Lancashire, UK
‘Starlings fighting for food in an autumn garden in Lytham St Annes.’
Photograph: Victor Burnside

Patagonia, Chile
‘This photo was taken on Grey Lake in Torres del Paine national park. I had no idea icebergs could be this beautiful blue.’
Photograph: John Whitehurst

London, UK
‘While waiting to go to a late-night concert (Tinariwen) at the Royal Albert Hall at the end of August this year, the sky lit up with this amazing sunset. I thought this group of figures on the memorial gave the image an apocalyptic feel.’
Photograph: Jim Turner
Market Closes for October 23^rd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42514.95	-409.94
		-0.95%
S&P 500	5797.42	-53.78
		-0.92%
NASDAQ	18276.66	-296.47
		-1.60%
TSX	24573.62	-143.09
		-0.58%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38104.86	-307.10
		-0.80%
HANG SENG	20760.15	+261.20
		+1.27%
SENSEX	80081.98	-138.74
		-0.17%
FTSE 100*	8258.64	-47.90
		-0.58%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.264	3.234
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.413	3.388
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2456	4.2076
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5182	4.4965

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7227	0.7237
US $	1.3837	1.3819

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4919	0.6703
US $	1.0783	0.9274

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2736.45	2736.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.26	72.09

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1868, memberships, or “seats,” at the New York Stock Exchange went on sale for the first time. The price for a seat peaked at around $4 million in 2005, before NYSE went public and moved to a licensing model the following year.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.6%, or 143.09 to 24,573.62 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Sept. 6.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.3%.
Seabridge Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.4%.
Today, 170 of 223 shares fell, while 52 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 2.4%
* The index advanced 29% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 37% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 31.5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.92t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.29% compared with 7.17% in the previous session and the average of 9.03% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -54.3533| -1.3| 3/38
Information Technology | -33.3623| -1.6| 2/8
Materials | -27.9546| -0.9| 9/43
Industrials | -11.7723| -0.4| 8/19
Utilities | -7.4033| -0.8| 2/13
Consumer Staples | -7.1999| -0.7| 0/11
Financials | -5.6251| -0.1| 13/14
Real Estate | -1.3851| -0.3| 6/13
Health Care | -0.5017| -0.6| 1/3
Communication Services | 1.1984| 0.2| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 5.2948| 0.6| 4/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -22.0700| -2.3| -43.0| 6.8
Cameco | -10.7000| -4.5| 30.4| 31.0
Constellation Software | -9.2700| -1.5| -37.5| 31.8
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 3.6040| 0.9| 10.7| 68.8
RBC | 4.2510| 0.3| 57.7| 29.3
Restaurant Brands | 4.3840| 2.0| -45.1| -1.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Big tech climbed in late hours as Tesla Inc.
kicked off the “Magnificent Seven” earnings season with solid results.
Bond yields rose on bets the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach on rate cuts.
Following a stock-market selloff on Wednesday, Wall Street pointed to a rebound led by its most-influential group.
A $300 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gained after the close of regular trading.
Tesla jumped 9% as Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle giant also indicated it expects another strong quarter of deliveries, saying it anticipates higher volumes for the full year.
“Earnings season is heating up. We believe there is continued upside ahead for stocks, especially now that we are entering a seasonally strong period of the year for markets,” said David Laut at Abound Financial.
After last week’s rally to fresh all-time highs, equities have taken a breather, with investors fretting over a number of near-term risks.
The next three weeks capture big tech earnings, October’s payrolls report, and the US election, followed by the Fed meeting.
“Despite the possibility of more volatility as we get deeper into earnings season and close in on the November election, the market’s longer-term outlook remains solid,” said Daniel Skelly at Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management.
“And even though this week’s move is a reminder that even the strongest trends have setbacks, so far, this has been a run-of-the-mill pullback for the major indexes.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.9%.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1%.
International Business Machines Corp. declined as its revenue underwhelmed.
T-Mobile US Inc. raised its forecast for subscribers after a strong quarter.
Treasury 10-year yields rose three basis points to 4.23%.
The dollar rose.
The yen hit the lowest in almost three months, reviving concern that Japan may intervene.
The loonie slid after the Bank of Canada stepped up the pace of easing.
To Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG, equities are finally noticing the moves in bonds and the dollar.
That’s a stark contrast to the action in the last couple of weeks, with the bullish narrative being that bonds were re-pricing to where they should be based on the stronger-than-anticipated economy, he noted.
“While that might be fair in the big picture, markets are always concerned with the velocity of the move rather than the overall level, and the fact that stocks didn’t flinch in the face of those moves suggested complacency,” Krinsky said.
“Whether this is the start of the pre-election jitters or not, we continue to see downside risk for equities broadly over the coming weeks, with an SPX pullback into the 5,500-5,650 zone a decent probability.”
The price of options that protect against an extended slump in Treasuries has soared to the highest this year amid concerns that losses may deepen.
Meantime, swap prices reflect less than a 100% certainty that the central bank reduces rates at each of its two remaining policy meetings this year.
The bond market is also trimming bets on the degree of Fed rate reductions over the next year.
“The price of options to hedge against Treasury losses is soaring,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“In the US, it is about the election and potential sweep. That is what is being built into the rate structure, which is giving the vigilantes the green light. It will reverse, but it might take a severe employment number or a surprise in the election.”
“We would caution investors from reading too much into the recent rise in bond yields,” said Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“Over the past six major Fed rate- cutting cycles, the change in the 10-year Treasury yield a month after the first cut has not provided a consistent signal about the magnitude of further cuts or whether the Us economy falls into recession.”
In fact, yields rose in the month after the first cut more often than not, she noted.
“Equity market performance in the first month after the Fed starts cutting has been a similarly bad predictor of future economic performance (and market returns),” Wilding said.
“Equities, more often than not, have tended to rise in the month after a cutting cycle begins, despite more significant divergence as time goes on.”
Looking at the same starkly different cycles of 1995 and 2007, equity returns (proxied by the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 of small caps) in the month after the first cut were positive in both cycles (at 4.6% and 6.9%, respectively), Wilding said.
However, equity market performance was down 4.4% in the year after the 2007 cut, while it was up 21% in the year following the 1995 adjustment.
“Even with the recent move in 10-year Treasury yields, we remain bullish on US large caps,” said Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research.
“History says to discount the idea that rates will blow out because of deficit worries, at least over the near term. Instead, we see higher yields as a sign that economic growth remains robust and corporate earnings growth should continue over the coming quarters.”
“All else equal, the more rate cuts that are removed for next year the less of an outlier reading it becomes for the market to achieve 15% earnings growth,” said Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
“However, additional rates cuts do not change the challenges the S&P faces with achieving that growth rate.”
Sales growth continues to show signs of slowing, and if analysts were suggesting rate cuts would reduce interest expense, that argument is beginning to recede, Grabinski said.
“Nearly 14% EPS margins continue to look more and more difficult to achieve,” he added.
“The question is when does something give.”
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, the equity market is extremely fragile considering the headwinds that are lurking right around the corner.
“Earnings expectations are buoyant for next year, which increases the importance of forward guidance rather than past results,” he said.
“When considering that valuations are around 22 times next year’s profits, any disappointment in the outlook for the bottom line can significantly impact stock market performance.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. will likely continue to burn cash next year as it grapples with the challenges of ramping up production again following a prolonged labor strike and regulatory scrutiny over its factory processes.
* AT&T Inc. gained more mobile subscribers in the third quarter than analysts expected, continuing the winning streak from the previous period.
* Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. lowered its profit outlook, as the addition of new hotels to its global system failed to offset slower travel demand.
* Coca-Cola Co. dropped as investors weighed how much longer the soft-drink purveyor could raise prices without getting customers to buy more of its beverages.
* Spirit Airlines Inc. is in talks with Frontier Group Holdings Inc. about filing for bankruptcy to facilitate a takeover by the rival discount carrier, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Capital One Financial Corp.’s proposed $35 billion acquisition of Discover Financial Services is being investigated by New York Attorney General Letitia James, who said the deal would have “significant impact” on consumers in the state.
* Deutsche Bank AG said it will have to set aside more money than expected for souring debt, the second time this year it had to adjust its guidance.
* Kering SA warned that its annual profit will fall to the lowest level since 2016 as a slump in Chinese demand for luxury goods hampers a turnaround of the French fashion group’s biggest label, Gucci.

Key events this week:
* US new home sales, jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Thursday
* UPS, Barclays earnings, Thursday
* Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks, Thursday
* US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0786
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2933
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 152.58 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $66,416.63
* Ether fell 4.7% to $2,509.01
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.20%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $70.98 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $2,716.54 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Rise with the hour for which you were made.” — Georgia Douglas Johnson

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

October 22, 1875: First telegraphic connection in Argentina.
October 22, 1879: Thomas Edison perfects the carbonized cotton filament light bulb
October 22, 1939: NBC becomes first network to televise a pro football game;

The ‘3-body problem’ may not be so chaotic after all, new study suggests
Scientists studying the infamous 3-body problem have discovered certain “islands of regularity” that emerge from the gravitational chaos.

80 million-year-old dinosaur ‘mini eggs’ unearthed at Chinese construction site are the smallest ever found — and belong to a never-before-seen T. rex relative
Half a dozen dinosaur eggs, each around the size of a grape, were recently saved from a construction site in China. Researchers say the tiny fossilized shells are exceptionally well preserved.

How many moons does Jupiter have?
How many moons does Jupiter have? Scientists have discovered dozens of them, but the answer may be more complicated than it seems.

National Geographic reveals its top destinations for 2025
The hottest revival trend in travel for 2025? That would be “fun,” according to National Geographic editor-in-chief Nathan Lump, who spoke exclusively to CNN ahead of the Tuesday reveal of Best of the World 2025, the brand’s annual list of the most thrilling and purposeful travel experiences for the year ahead.

PICTURES OF THE DAY

Ontario, Canada
A rainbow appears as people enjoy a warm afternoon on a tour boat at Niagara Falls
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Brüsewitz, Germany
An aerial shot with a drone shows trees with autumnal leaves in a mixed forest
Photograph: Jens Büttner/AP

​​​​​​​London, UK
Part of the Chew Valley hoard of 2,584 coins, dating from around the Norman invasion of Britain in 1066, displayed at the British Museum.
Photograph: Alastair Grant/AP
Market Closes for October 22^nd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42924.89	-6.71
		-0.02%
S&P 500	5851.20	-2.78
		-0.05%
NASDAQ	18573.13	+33.12
		+0.18%
TSX	24716.71	-6.62
		-0.03%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38411.96	-542.64
		-1.39%
HANG SENG	20498.95	+20.49
		+0.10%
SENSEX	80220.72	-930.55
		-1.15%
FTSE 100*	8306.54	-11.70
		-0.14%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.234	3.234
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.388	3.390
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2076	4.1956
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4965	4.4994

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7237	0.7227
US $	1.3819	1.3837

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4921	0.6702
US $	1.0798	0.9261

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2736.45	2712.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.09	70.56

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1938, Chester F. Carlson created the world’s first photocopy in a lab in the Astoria neighborhood of Queens, N.Y. It took 21 years to bring his invention to market.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 24,716.70 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.0%.
Goeasy Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 9.4%.
Today, 106 of 223 shares fell, while 115 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 3%
* The index advanced 29% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 38% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on Oct. 21, 2024 and 32.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.92t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.17% compared with 7.20% in the previous session and the average of 9.11% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -19.2191| -0.2| 9/18
Information Technology | -11.4160| -0.5| 5/5
Energy | -9.5073| -0.2| 19/22
Industrials | -5.9205| -0.2| 8/19
Utilities | -5.8770| -0.6| 3/12
Consumer Discretionary | -5.2955| -0.6| 3/8
Communication Services | -1.8530| -0.3| 2/3
Health Care | 0.8221| 1.1| 3/1
Consumer Staples | 0.8496| 0.1| 5/6
Real Estate | 1.6241| 0.3| 18/2
Materials | 49.1704| 1.5| 40/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | -15.4900| -2.0| 3.8| 41.3
Shopify | -13.1900| -1.4| -42.3| 9.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -5.6490| -0.8| -62.5| 12.9
Wheaton Precious Metals | 6.6880| 2.3| -21.5| 44.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 6.9100| 1.0| -7.1| 5.0
TD Bank | 8.7870| 0.9| -64.7| -7.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks struggled in late hours after downbeat news from some key American companies, with traders also mulling prospects for a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
A $600 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) wavered after the close of regular trading.
Texas Instruments Inc., the biggest maker of analog chips, gave a weak outlook even after topping estimates.
Starbucks Corp. pulled guidance for 2025 after sales plunged for a third consecutive quarter.
McDonald’s Corp. plunged as its Quarter Pounders were linked to an E. coli outbreak in the US.
Equities finished mildly lower, with the S&P 500 seeing its first back-to-back drop in six weeks.
Exposure to the gauge has reached levels that were followed by a 10% slump in the past, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Chris Montagu.
Long positions on futures linked to the benchmark are looking “particularly extended,” they said.
“We’re not suggesting investors should start to reduce exposure, but the positioning risks do rise when markets get extended like this,” they said.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed.
Treasury 10-year yields hovered near 4.20%.
The euro hit the lowest since early August amid bets the European Central Bank will keep lowering rates.
Oil advanced as traders tracked tensions between Israel and Iran.
Gold climbed to a fresh record.
Wall Street is paring back bets on aggressive policy easing as the US economy remains robust while Fed officials sound a cautious tone over the pace of future rate decreases.
Rising oil prices and the prospect of bigger fiscal deficits after the upcoming presidential election are only compounding the market’s concerns.
Since the end of last week, traders have trimmed the extent of expected Fed cuts through September 2025 by more than 10 basis points.
“Of course, higher yields do not have to be negative for stocks. Let’s face it, the stock market has been advancing as these bond yields have been rising for a full month now,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “However, given how expensive the market is today, these higher yields could cause some problems for the equity market before too long.”
A string of stronger-than-estimated data points sent the US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index to the highest since April.
The gauge measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations.
“On the back of September’s strong economic data, markets have already priced a slower pace of cuts,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“If the Fed is able to move towards a 4% policy rate — still above the levels most believe represent the ‘neutral’ rate — then the equity market rally can continue.
Disruptions to that view make equity market volatility more likely.”
The last time US government bonds sold off this much as the Fed started cutting interest rates, Alan Greenspan was orchestrating a rare soft landing.
Two-year yields have climbed 34 basis points since the Fed reduced interest rates on Sept. 18 for the first time since 2020.
Yields rose similarly in 1995, when the Fed — led by Greenspan — managed to cool the economy without causing a recession.
In prior rate cutting cycles going back to 1989, two-year yields on average fell 15 basis points one month after the Fed started slashing rates.
Meantime, the International Monetary Fund said the US election is creating “high uncertainty” for markets and policymakers, given the sharply divergent trade priorities of the candidates.
That gap creates the risk of another potential round of volatility on global markets similar to the rattling August selloff.
“Presidents don’t control markets,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Over time, the stock market’s common thread has been the economy and earnings, not who’s in the Oval Office. Be prepared for mood swings in markets as we get closer to Election Day.  But remember that election-fueled storms often dissipate quickly.”
As the earnings season rolls in, US companies are reaping the best stock-market reward in five years for beating profit expectations that were lowered in the run-up to the reporting season.
S&P 500 firms that posted better-than-estimated third-quarter earnings have outperformed the benchmark by a median of 1.74% on the day of reporting results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
That’s the strongest rate in BI’s records going back to 2019.
At the same time, companies missing estimates trailed the S&P 500 by a median of 1.5%, a less severe underperformance than the 1.7% experienced in the second quarter, the data showed.
“This earnings season we are watching what companies are saying about inflation and the economy,” said Megan Horneman at Verdence Capital Advisors.
“In addition, their view on interest rates, especially if the Fed cannot be as aggressive as the market is pricing in at this point. It is good to see analysts getting realistic about 2025 earnings growth. However, at 15% earnings growth, we believe it is still too optimistic given the expectation for slower economic growth in 2025.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Verizon Communications Inc. reported revenue that missed analysts’ expectations, weighed down by lackluster sales of hardware such as mobile phones.
* 3M Co. increased the low end of its 2024 profit forecast and reported earnings that topped analyst estimates as a push to boost productivity gained traction.
* General Motors Co. signaled solid US demand for its highest- margin vehicles even as the broader market softens, posting better-than-expected results for the latest quarter and raising the low end of its full-year profit forecast.
* General Electric Co.’s sales fell short of Wall Street’s expectations last quarter, tempering enthusiasm for its improved profit outlook as the jet engine maker grapples with supply- chain limitations that are weighing on deliveries.
* Kimberly-Clark Corp., owner of the Scott toilet paper brand, lowered its full-year organic sales forecast after reporting weaker-than-expected results.
* Philip Morris International Inc. shares soared Tuesday after the company forecast higher-than-expected profit this year thanks to soaring demand for its Zyn nicotine pouches in the US.
* Lockheed Martin Corp.’s third-quarter revenue missed expectations, pulled down by weaker aeronautical sales and ongoing issues with its F-35 fighter jet program.
* L’Oreal SA posted disappointing sales last quarter as the beauty company suffers from worsening consumer demand in China.

Key events this week:
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Wednesday
* US existing home sales, Wednesday
* Boeing, Tesla, Deutsche Bank earnings, Wednesday
* Fed’s Beige Book, Wednesday
* US new home sales, jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Thursday
* UPS, Barclays earnings, Thursday
* Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks, Thursday
* US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0794
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2980
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 151.13 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $67,428.76
* Ether fell 1.8% to $2,625.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.20%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.32%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.2% to $72.09 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.1% to $2,748.60 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” When your work speaks for itself, don’t interrupt.”– Henry J Kaiser

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

October 21, 1805: Battle of Trafalgar: British Admiral Horatio Nelson defeats combined French and Spanish fleet.  Nelson shot and killed during battle.
On Oct. 21, 1879, Thomas Edison invented a workable electric light at his laboratory in Menlo Park, N.J.  Go to article >>

1967: Vietnam War protestors storm Pentagon.

Alfred Nobel, Creator of the Nobel Prize, b.1833.
Dizzy Gillespie, musician, b. 1917
S.T. Coleridge, poet, b. 1772

Why didn’t the Vikings colonize North America?
The Vikings landed in what is now Newfoundland, Canada around the year A.D. 1000. So why didn’t they colonize the region like other Europeans did centuries later?  Read More.

The universe may end in a ‘Big Freeze,’ holographic model of the universe suggests
New research suggests holographic dark energy could stop the universe’s expansion.   Read More.

‘An ancient, complex, and very serious game is going on’: The weird ways creatures feed in the open ocean
“In an environment where food is scarce, where there is nowhere to hide, and where the predators are probably faster than you are, most animals must find new ways to protect themselves.” Read More.

Iconic stage set for MLB World Series
The New York Yankees will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, with Game 1 scheduled for Friday in Los Angeles.

Halloween could taste different this year
It’s Crunch time for candy companies with Halloween just around the corner. Here’s why you might see more non-chocolate treats in grocery aisles.

Long-lost copy of US Constitution sells for $9 million at auction
A rare copy of the US Constitution found in a filing cabinet sold for $9 million. Just eight are known to still exist and the other seven are publicly owned.

The origins of bubble tea, one of Taiwan’s most beloved beverages
Bubble tea — also known as boba tea — has become an unstoppable worldwide trend since it was invented in the 1980s. Read how it all started.
PICTURES OF THE DAY

Strasburg, Pennsylvania
A man rides his motorbike at sunset
Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

Schierke, Germany
A steam train travels through the ‘Harz’ forest, damaged by bark beetle, at the 1,142-meter (3,743 feet) high Brocken mountain
Photograph: Matthias Schräder/AP

​​​​​​​Yancheng, China
An aerial photo shows the ‘tidal tree’ landscape of the Dongtai Tiaozini wetland in the coastal city of Yancheng in Jiangsu province, north of Shanghai
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 21^st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42931.60	-344.31
		-0.80%
S&P 500	5853.98	-10.69
		-0.18%
NASDAQ	18540.01	+50.46
		+0.27%
TSX	24723.33	-99.21
		-0.40%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38954.60	-27.15
		-0.07%
HANG SENG	20478.46	-325.65
		-1.57%
SENSEX	81151.27	-73.48
		-0.09%
FTSE 100*	8318.24	-40.01
		-0.48%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.234	3.128
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.390	3.290
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1956	4.0789
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4994	4.3885

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7227	0.7245
US $	1.3837	1.3802

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4965	0.6682
US $	1.0815	0.9246

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2712.50	2688.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.56	70.67

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, William Peter Hamilton, editor of The Wall Street Journal, predicted the demise of the bull market. He had already done so in 1927 and twice in 1928, so no one listened to him. This time the market crashed three days later.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 24,723.33 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Sept. 6 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
NexGen Energy Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 4.4%.
Today, 143 of 223 shares fell, while 76 rose; all sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This month, the index rose 3%
* The index advanced 29% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 38% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.93t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.20% compared with 7.33% in the previous session and the average of 9.21% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -45.5276| -0.6| 5/21
Industrials | -15.8086| -0.5| 11/16
Information Technology | -12.3948| -0.6| 3/7
Energy | -8.1456| -0.2| 23/18
Real Estate | -6.2781| -1.2| 0/20
Consumer Staples | -4.1858| -0.4| 1/10
Communication Services | -2.0598| -0.3| 1/4
Consumer Discretionary | -1.8293| -0.2| 2/9
Utilities | -1.2574| -0.1| 4/10
Materials | -0.9962| 0.0| 25/26
Health Care | -0.7062| -0.9| 1/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | -12.5800| -1.6| -36.8| 44.2
RBC | -10.5800| -0.6| 188.1| 29.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -10.3700| -1.4| -51.4| 3.9
Canadian Natural Resources | 5.0550| 0.7| -62.2| 13.8
Restaurant Brands | 7.2180| 3.4| -70.0| -2.8
TD Bank | 7.3220| 0.8| -25.4| -8.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks took a breather after notching their longest weekly rally this year, with traders gearing up for key earnings reports from Tesla Inc. to Boeing Co. and United Parcel Service Inc.
Following a relentless advance to all-time highs, equities dropped from nearly overbought levels.
In another sign of how greed has trumped fear, the S&P 500 hasn’t suffered back-to-back losses in about 30 sessions.
While a month with no consecutive down days may not sound like much, the current streak ranks among the very best since 1928, according to data compiled by SentimenTrader.
“The index remains overbought across multiple time frames and is still vulnerable to profit-taking over the short run,” said Dan Wantrobski, director of research at Janney Montgomery Scott.
Wall Street faces a big earnings hurdle this week, with roughly 20% of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to report.
The latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows respondents see Corporate America’s results as more crucial for the equity market’s performance than who wins the November election or even the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, with all of its major groups but technology pushing lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.8%.
Nvidia Corp. hit a record high, with the Nasdaq 100 up 0.2%.
The Russell 2000 retreated 1.6%.
Homebuilders tumbled.
United Parcel Service Inc. sank on a sell recommendation at Barclays Plc.
Boeing Co. rallied after a tentative agreement with its workers’ union.
US 10-year yields jumped 10 basis points to 4.19%.
They will test the 5% threshold in the next six months amid rising inflation expectations and concerns over fiscal spending, said T. Rowe Price’s Arif Husain.
Meantime, Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management sees higher chances the Fed will leave rates unchanged in November as the economy powers ahead.
Oil climbed as China moved again to bolster its economy and traders tracked the risk to supplies from tensions in the Middle East.
Volatility is elevated for options on stocks, bonds and currencies alike as investors pay up for protection.
The risks are clear: a hotly contested US election, interest-rate decisions in the US and Europe, the threat of a wider Middle East conflict and quarterly earnings.
In the stock market, implied volatility is outpacing actual swings, and puts protecting against a selloff are favored over bullish calls.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, no matter the reason, “we certainly cannot blame investors for buying some protection in the options market and/or gold.”
“With the stock market as expensive as it is (especially on a price/sales basis), it is much more vulnerable than usual when these kinds of political and geopolitical issues became significant concerns in the past,” he said.
Equities lost steam after the S&P 500 notched six straight weeks of gains.
Winning streaks of that length are relatively rare, occurring only 53 times since 1950 (roughly 8% of all six-week periods), according to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
Looking ahead, the index has historically posted an average return of 0.2% the following week, with 58% extending to seven- week win streaks, he noted.
Forward six- and 12-month returns averaged 5.1% and 11.4%, respectively, with both periods generating above-average positivity rates.
“While the market is entering a potentially volatile period ahead of the election and facing overhead resistance near the upper end of its rising price channel, history suggests investors should buy dips as momentum tends to continue after a
six-week winning streak,” he noted.
“We believe there is continued upside ahead for stocks, especially now that we are entering a seasonally strong period of the year for markets,” said David Laut at Abound Financial.
“Earnings season is heating up and we will soon hear from big tech companies and the latest on their artificial intelligence spend. For big tech, this is the show-me-the-money quarter.”
This week, Tesla will likely face questions during its earnings call on production targets and regulatory challenges after the unveiling of its much-hyped Cybercab failed to enthuse investors and quell concerns over its recent vehicle sales.
Boeing will also have to mollify investors increasingly concerned over production delays, labor strife and depleted financial resources.
Reports from UPS, Norfolk Southern Corp. and Southwest Airlines Co. should reveal the combined impact of Hurricane
Helene and the three-day East Coast dockworker strike on the recent quarter.
Jeffrey Buchbinder at LPL Financial says the bar for third- quarter results is low, with analysts currently expecting only about a 3% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share.
“That low bar and a supportive economic environment point to potential upside,” he said. “However, stocks may already be pricing in solid results.”
Companies in the US benchmark gauge that have beaten profit estimates so far this season are being rewarded “more significantly” compared with the previous four quarters, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
They also noted that the revisions breadth for 2025 is “significantly outperforming” seasonality.
“As is typical, the early days of earnings season are sparking relatively strong price reactions,” said Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong.
“Both beats and misses are resulting in bigger-than-usual price moves.”
Stocks that surpassed third-quarter earnings or revenue estimates — or both — recorded an average one-day excess return to the index of 2.1%, 2.3% and 2.6%, more than double the longer-term average (for whole earnings seasons), they said.
Misses are likewise resulting in steeper selloffs of 3.8%, 2% and 3.7%, BI said.
Although the market has shown incredible resilience this year, with nine out of 10 positive months, we’re beginning to see parallels with the 2001–2006 period where tech valuations were high, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Unlike the dot-com bubble, today’s leading tech firms have solid fundamentals, but the market is far from ‘normal’,” he noted. “High expectations are warning signs for potential instability in the next few years.
Investors should prepare for moderating returns and volatility, especially as cracks begin to appear beyond 2024.”
US stocks are unlikely to sustain their above-average performance of the past decade as investors turn to other assets including bonds for better returns, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including David Kostin.
The S&P 500 is expected to post an annualized nominal total return of just 3% over the next 10 years, they said.
That compares with 13% in the last decade, and a long-term average of 11%.
“Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are toward the lower end of their typical performance distribution,” the team wrote in a note dated Oct. 18.

Corporate Highlights:
* SAP SE said its cloud revenue grew by 25% in the third quarter, as Europe’s biggest software company pushed customers to transition away from locally-installed legacy systems.
* Qualcomm Inc. unveiled a more powerful processor that’s designed to bring laptop-level capabilities to smartphones, helping the devices take advantage of new artificial intelligence tools.
* Microsoft Corp. is launching a set of artificial intelligence tools designed to send emails, manage records and take other actions on behalf of business workers, expanding an AI push that intensifies competition with rivals like Salesforce Inc.
* Spirit Airlines Inc. soared after the carrier secured more time to address a troublesome debt load that has raised the prospect of bankruptcy.
* Kenvue Inc. rallied after activist investor Starboard Value took a stake in the Tylenol maker with an eye toward making changes to boost the company’s stock price.

Key events this week:
* ECB’s Christine Lagarde is interviewed by Bloomberg Television, Tuesday
* BOE’s Andrew Bailey as well as ECB’s Klaas Knot and Robert Holzmann to speak at Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York, Tuesday
* Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Tuesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Wednesday
* US existing home sales, Wednesday
* Boeing, Tesla, Deutsche Bank earnings, Wednesday
* Fed’s Beige Book, Wednesday
* US new home sales, jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Thursday
* UPS, Barclays earnings, Thursday
* Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks, Thursday
* US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0815
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2983
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 150.79 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $67,746.88
* Ether fell 1.2% to $2,679.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.19%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 2.28%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 4.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $70.35 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Accept the challenges so that you can feel the exhilaration of victory. –General George S. Patton, 1885-1945.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

October 18, 1867 The United States took possession of Alaska from Russia.  Go to article >>
October 18, 1921: Charles Strite granted U.S. Patent for his invention, the automatic pop-up toaster.

Chuck Berry, b. 1926.
Martina Navratilova, b. 1956

Cleveland Guardians shock New York Yankees to cut series deficit to 2-1
With their stunning victory Thursday, the Cleveland Guardians will aim to even up the American League Championship Series in Game 4 later today.

17,000-year-old remains of blue-eyed baby boy unearthed in Italy

Watch bioluminescent algal blooms trigger electric-blue waves off San Diego coast in stunning new footage

Cryptic terrain’ and dark dust surrounds Mars’ icy south pole, new photos reveal

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Los Angeles, California, US
Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-Atlas) streaks across the sky over Joshua Tree national park
Photograph: Qian Weizhong/VCG/Getty Images

Ginger nuts … a red squirrel forages for food at the Widdale Red Squirrel Reserve in the Yorkshire Dales National Park, UK
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA

Common cranes fly above a reservoir at sunset near Balmazújváros, eastern Hungary
Photograph: Zsolt Czeglédi/EPA
Market Closes for October 18^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43275.91	+36.86
		+0.09%
S&P 500	5864.67	+23.20
		+0.40%
NASDAQ	18489.55	+115.94
		+0.63%
TSX	24822.54	+132.06
		+0.53%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38981.75	+70.56
		+0.18%
HANG SENG	20804.11	+725.01
		+3.61%
SENSEX	81224.75	+218.14
		+0.27%
FTSE 100*	8358.25	-26.88
		-0.32%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.128	3.159
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.290	3.313
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0789	4.0906
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3885	4.3895

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7245	0.7249
US $	1.3802	1.3796

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5004	0.6665
US $	1.0871	0.9199

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2688.85	2675.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.67	70.39

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1937, the stock market tumbled on rumors that the Roosevelt administration was planning a crackdown on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 7%, a major dip in the middle of the Great Depression.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.5%, or 132.06 to 24,822.54 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 116 of 223 shares rose, while 105 fell.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.9%.
Iamgold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 16.6%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 1.4%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Sept. 13
* The index advanced 28% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 35% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.91t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.33% compared with 8.12% in the previous session and the average of 9.48% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 98.0931| 3.2| 39/13
Financials | 15.2933| 0.2| 13/14
Information Technology | 13.7695| 0.7| 5/5
Energy | 10.5844| 0.2| 15/25
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4549| 0.4| 7/4
Utilities | 3.2350| 0.3| 10/5
Communication Services | 1.3326| 0.2| 2/3
Consumer Staples | 0.7308| 0.1| 5/6
Health Care | 0.0936| 0.1| 3/1
Real Estate | -1.9134| -0.4| 6/14
Industrials | -12.6125| -0.4| 11/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 19.4500| 4.9| 17.0| 63.8
Brookfield Corp | 15.1900| 2.0| -15.8| 46.5
Shopify | 13.1100| 1.4| -33.1| 10.7
Fairfax Financial | -4.7110| -1.8| -41.7| 41.4
RBC | -4.7460| -0.3| 122.0| 29.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -9.6480| -1.3| 4.6| 5.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders wading through a slew of corporate results and signs the world’s largest economy is holding up drove stocks to their longest weekly advance in 2024.
On the eve of the 37th anniversary of the “Black Monday” market crash, equities hit all-time highs amid gains in most major groups.
The S&P 500 was up for a sixth straight week.
The gauge’s equal-weighted version — one that gives Target Corp. as much clout as Microsoft Corp. — also rose to a record on hopes the rally will broaden out.
Netflix Inc. jumped 11% on solid earnings.
Apple Inc. climbed 1.2% as sales of its newest iPhones in China soared.
American Express Co. sank 3.2% after trimming its revenue forecast.
The bulk of the growth in S&P 500 earnings continues to come from mega caps, with the “Magnificent Seven” expected to show an 18% rise in third-quarter profits, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
While the other firms are seen posting an only 1.8% increase in earnings, their results are projected to accelerate to double-digit gains in the first quarter of 2025.
“Earnings season is off to the races, and despite some mixed signals, appears to be in good shape,” said Liz Young Thomas, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “We’re in the early innings though, and coming up on the final days before the election and the next Fed meeting. Never a dull moment.”
With the odds tilting toward both Donald Trump winning the US presidential election and Republicans controlling Congress, investors have started ramping up assets which had thrived in the wake of the former president’s 2016 victory, according to Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett.
Price action in the past week shows banks, small caps and the dollar are “front-running 2016 bull moves,” Hartnett wrote in a note.
US equities and the greenback surged in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in November 2016.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, notching its 47th record in 2024.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.7%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms barely budged Friday, but was up almost 2% this week.
Treasury 10-year yields fell one basis point to 4.08%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.2%.
Oil saw its largest weekly decline in more than a year as the US revived a push to end the conflict in the Middle East and China’s crude demand slipped. Gold topped $2,700.
In a note titled “Rotation Nation,” Mike O’Rourke at JonesTrading said most of this week has been about the rally broadening out.
While tech advanced, the group is lagging behind several other S&P 500 industries.
He says the deceleration of inflation since mid-2024 has opened the door for rate cuts.
And now economic strength has added accelerant to the mix.
“Investors no longer need to crowd into the size and safety of the Magnificent Seven,” O’Rourke said. “Ironically, that crowding has the ‘Magnificent Seven’ collectively trading at more than twice the P/E multiple of the other 493 S&P 500 names. While the ‘Magnificent Seven’ leaders generally remain strong, the rotation has been real.”
Even as the S&P 500 jumped from one record to the next this year, indicators that gauge investor sentiment found that mood was subdued, given uncertainties about the Federal Reserve, geopolitics and the US election.
This week, however, optimism has returned, though its timing is flashing a bearish signal for stocks.
Ned Davis Research’s Daily Trading Sentiment Composite returned to its optimistic zone on Tuesday, and history says every time this happened in an election year, stocks had a middling run through Election Day — on Nov. 5 this year.
On the other hand, when sentiment was pessimistic as of mid-October, the benchmark index posted a 2.5% median gain over a similar period.
“The bottom line is that the recent return to optimism could weigh on the market heading into a tight election,” said Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis. However, if rising political uncertainty from here dampens optimism, that would set the stage for a post-election rally, he added.
“We believe the environment remains constructive for US equities,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Earnings growth is broadening out. While the election outcome adds a layer of uncertainty, we don’t think any potential policy changes stemming from the election will significantly alter the environment. Valuations are high in absolute terms, but we think they are reasonable in light of the macro environment.”
To Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial, it is highly unlikely that investors and traders alike will feel the anxiety of missing out if the technology sector delivers weaker than expected numbers and softer guidance.
“A pullback as we inch closer to overbought technical conditions could offer a modicum of support as we enter a crucial week for earnings and move closer to what big tech reports and even more important, what big tech sees ahead,” she said.
Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research says strong earnings revisions for the “Magnificent Seven” year-to date raise the bar to beat higher expectations relative to the other S&P 500 firms.
“We believe that this group will likely need to beat by a larger margin than last quarter to return to the market’s leadership,” he said. “Along a similar vein, we believe reasonable expectations for the “Other 493” provides a lowered bar for upside surprises and supports our call for market performance to continue to ‘broaden out’ into year-end.”
“Will S&P 493 beat the ‘Magnificent Seven’? That’s a tough call considering how well the ‘Magnificent Seven’ companies historically have expanded their revenues, earnings and profitability,” said Ed Yardeni, founder of his namesake research firm.
However, the “Magnificent Seven” stocks have been volatile and susceptible to bouts of price weakness primarily due to concerns about their valuations and slowing rates of growth, he said.
Their rolling one-year performance has nearly matched or fallen below those of the S&P 500 and S&P 493 more than a few times in the past, when investors lightened their positions and rotated into the S&P 493 — specifically during late 2016, 2018-19, and 2021-23, according to Yardeni.
“While the Magnificent Seven has led the way since mid-2023, the S&P 493 is now beginning to catch up,” he concluded.
“The sustainability of the equity bull market is improving,” says David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US.
“Just look at the fundamentals. Third-quarter earnings are solid. Economic data continues to point towards growth. This week retail sales were above expectation, telling us consumers are still spending. And positive market performance is broadening out.”
Looking into next week’s earnings, Tesla Inc. faces questions on its earnings call next week on production targets and regulatory challenges after the unveiling of its much-hyped Cybercab failed to enthuse investors and quell concerns over its recent vehicle sales.
Boeing Co. will also have to mollify investors increasingly concerned over production delays, labor strife and depleted financial resources.
Reports from United Parcel Service Inc., Norfolk Southern Corp. and Southwest Airlines Co. should reveal the combined impact of Hurricane Helene and the three-day East Coast dockworker strike on the recent quarter.

Corporate Highlights:
* Shares of Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. surged after activist investor Jana Partners said it had built up a 5% stake in the company in a bid to push the french-fry supplier to explore strategic alternatives.
* Procter & Gamble Co. posted a second straight quarter of sluggish sales growth, dragged down by minimal price increases and weakness in key areas such as skin and baby care.
* SLB warned oil explorers’ spending growth has waned in recent months as they take a cautious approach amid lower crude prices.
* Ally Financial Inc. shares fell after the auto lender gave a more pessimistic outlook for loan charge-offs and lowered its net interest margin forecast as consumers struggle with expensive debts.
* Verizon Communications Inc., the biggest wireless carrier in the US, will buy some of US Cellular Corp.’s spectrum licenses for $1 billion as the tower operator sheds parts of its portfolio.
* Warren Buffett sold another slug of Bank of America Corp. stock after the lender repurchased enough of its own shares to nudge his stake back above 10% — a regulatory threshold that requires rapid disclosure.
* CVS Health Corp. named David Joyner as its new chief executive officer, ending a tumultuous tenure for Karen Lynch at the pharmacy giant.
* BMW AG is recalling nearly 700,000 vehicles in China due to coolant pump defects, a fresh setback for the German carmaker that’s reeling from other vehicle faults.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0864
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3042
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 149.54 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $68,591.88
* Ether rose 2% to $2,649.62
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.08%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.18%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.06%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $69.39 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,719.59 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The world turns aside to let any man pass who knows where he is going. -Epictetus, c. 50-135 CE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
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Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

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