Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

December 16, 1773: The Boston Tea Party.  American colonists throw 342 chests of tea into Boston Harbour to protest British taxation, an act that sparks the American Revolution.
December 16, 1985: Reputed organized-crime chief Paul Castellano was shot to death outside a New York City restaurant. Go to article.

Ludwig Von Beethoven, composer, b. 1770.
Jane Austen, novelist, b.1775.
Noel Coward, playwright, b.1899
Margaret Mead, anthropologist, b.1901.

1,800-year-old silver amulet could rewrite history of Christianity in the early Roman Empire
A silver amulet found in a 1,800-year-old grave in Germany speaks to the importance — and the risk — of being Christian in Roman times. Read More.

Just a fraction of the hydrogen hidden beneath Earth’s surface could power Earth for 200 years, scientists find
Trillions of tons of hydrogen gas are likely buried in rocks and reservoirs beneath Earth’s surface, but researchers aren’t sure where it is yet. Read More.

James Webb telescope spots more than 100 new asteroids between Jupiter and Mars — and some are heading toward Earth
Astronomers analyzing archival images from JWST have discovered an unexpectedly vast population of the smallest asteroids ever seen in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Read More.

Why Travis Hunter is such a rare talent in college football
One of the rarest qualities in all team sports is the ability to impact a game in multiple ways, and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter is exactly that.

British pubs are worried they’ll run out of Guinness
Diageo, which owns the Guinness brand, has told some pub owners that it would set allocation limits on its beer to ensure distribution can last through the holiday season.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
A Santa testing his surf skills before Christmas Day at URBNSURF at Sydney Olympic Park
Photograph: James D Morgan/Getty Images for URBNSURF

Troon, UK
Kite surfers at South Beach take advantage of the weather in Scotland. The Met Office issued a yellow weather warning for parts of Scotland lasting until Tuesday, as it forecast 70-100mm of rainfall
Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Romford, UK
A Christmas light display at a home on Pettits Lane in Greater London
Photograph: Jordan Pettitt/PA
Market Closes for December 16, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43717.48	-110.58
		-0.25%
S&P 500	6074.08	+22.99
		+0.38%
NASDAQ	20173.89	+247.17
		+1.24%
TSX	25147.21	-127.08
		-0.50%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39457.49	-12.95
		-0.03%
HANG SENG	19795.49	-175.75
		-0.88%
SENSEX	81748.57	-384.55
		-0.47%
FTSE 100*	8262.05	-38.28
		-0.46%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.187	3.179
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.279	3.270
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3967	4.3967
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5984	4.6013

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7023	0.7024
US $	1.4239	1.4236

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4965	0.6682
US $	1.0510	0.9515

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2659.05	2684.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.29	71.29

Market Commentary:
🚧 On this day in 1685, under orders from the British Governor General, workmen finished laying out a 36-foot-wide street of stone and dirt in lower Manhattan. The thoroughfare, which ran along a wall, was naturally named Wall Street.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.5%, or 127.08 to 25,147.21 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 20.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 159 of 219 shares fell, while 54 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.9%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest drop, falling 5.0%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 4.8%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 28% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.7% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 22.9% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.98t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.13% compared with 8.01% in the previous session and the average of 8.39% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -57.2423| -1.3| 3/37
Materials | -39.6587| -1.3| 10/39
Communication Services | -23.0255| -3.7| 0/5
Industrials | -12.2182| -0.4| 6/20
Consumer Staples | -3.3153| -0.3| 4/6
Utilities | -2.7625| -0.3| 6/9
Consumer Discretionary | -2.3375| -0.3| 3/8
Real Estate | -1.5906| -0.3| 4/16
Health Care | -0.4670| -0.6| 1/3
Financials | 4.9412| 0.1| 14/10
Information Technology | 10.5913| 0.4| 3/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -12.3800| -1.9| 52.3| 1.3
Barrick Gold | -7.2500| -2.5| -2.3| -2.6
Enbridge | -7.0220| -0.8| -3.0| 24.2
Manulife Financial | 2.3690| 0.4| -9.8| 51.2
Brookfield Asset Management | 5.0440| 2.4| -60.6| 57.2
Shopify | 17.8200| 1.3| -37.1| 60.3
US
By Rheaa Rao and Andre Janse van Vuuren
(Bloomberg) — US stocks broadly ended Monday’s session higher as traders geared up for interest-rate decisions by major central banks across the globe due later this week.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.5% to notch another record high.
The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.39%.
Bitcoin hit a fresh record.
Sentiment in the US is relatively positive, with a widely expected quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday seen as adding fresh support and extending stocks’ outperformance.
That stands in contrast to losses in Asia and Europe on Monday after weaker-than-anticipated retail data in China.
In the US, “near-term momentum may depend on what Fed Chair Powell says after the announcement, and whether retail sales or the PCE Price Index catch the market off guard,” said Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, at E*Trade from
Morgan Stanley.
Historically, most of the stock market’s December gains tend to come in the second half of the month, he said, adding that the S&P 500 had a positive net return in this period 78% of the time since 1957.
Traders are also parsing fresh economic data.
On Monday, data showed that activity at US service providers is expanding at the fastest pace since October 2021.
Meanwhile, a measure of New York state factory activity retreated by the most since last May.
The main focus remains Wednesday’s Fed decision, which will be followed by policy announcements in Japan, the Nordics and the UK this week.
Even if we get a “hawkish cut” from the Fed, it would be because the central bank sees underlying strength in the economy, and that means the rally in US stocks could continue to broaden out, Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock’s global chief investment officer of fundamental equities, said on Bloomberg TV.
Bloomberg’s dollar index, meanwhile, fluctuated between modest gains and losses on Monday.
After strengthening more than 6% so far this year, Wall Street is starting to sour on the greenback as Trump’s policies and the Fed’s interest-rate cuts are seen to put pressure on the currency in the latter portion of 2025.
The Canadian dollar declined modestly on news that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will name Dominic LeBlanc finance minister.
Earlier, finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned from Trudeau’s cabinet because of differences over how to prepare for the Trump administration.
German lawmakers passed a measure that will pave the way for a national election in two months, backing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s plan to end his embattled administration early.
Meanwhile, euro-area private-sector activity shrank less than anticipated thanks to a bigger-than-expected contribution from services.
French bonds lagged peers after Moody’s Ratings cut the country’s credit rating.
The Bank of France trimmed its domestic growth outlook, with the central bank citing political upheaval as a drag on household and business confidence.
In China, retail sales growth unexpectedly weakened in November despite signs of improvement in the housing market.
The data builds on traders’ disappointment last week when Beijing pledged to boost consumption but failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus.
The retail-sales data “is a reflection of the dire situation there and how the stimulus efforts have prioritized optics over delivering meaningful economic improvements,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.
“Even for a tactical recovery, we need more after a series of false starts and the risk of tariffs ahead.”
Oil slipped after China’s latest economic data reinforced concerns over weakening demand in the biggest importer.

Key events this week:
* UK jobless claims, unemployment, Tuesday
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* US rate decision, Wednesday
* Japan rate decision, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision
* US revised GDP, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
* US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4:02 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0510
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2684
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 154.16 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3% to $105,941.89
* Ether rose 5.1% to $4,050.13
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.25%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.44%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $70.61 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,652.44 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Winnie Hsu and Alex Nicholson.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It’s not the daily increase but daily decrease.  Hack away at the unessential. –Bruce Lee, 1940-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday.  Full moon this weekend. Luciadagen, Lucia’s Day, Sweden.

Mary Todd Lincoln, 1rst Lady, b. 1818.
Christopher Plummer, actor, b.1929.
Jamie Foxx, actor, b. 1967.
Taylor Swift, singer-songwriter, b.1989.

Satellites reveal stunningly detailed maps of Earth’s seafloors
A newly-deployed satellite has created the most-detailed map yet of the ocean floor, finding hundreds of hills and underwater volcanoes that were previously missed. Read More.

Our sun may be overdue for a ‘super flare’ stronger than billions of atomic bombs, new research warns
Observations made using a new method have revealed that sun-like stars produce cataclysmic super-flares once every hundred years. Could our sun create one soon? Read More.

Scientists spot ‘L-shaped structures’ and ‘weird things’ near monster black hole in epic new Hubble telescope images
New Hubble Space Telescope images of a black hole-powered quasar reveal ‘weird’ structures and gigantic jets of energy that scientists are just beginning to explain. Read More.

What are ‘attachment styles,’ and is there science to back them up?
Attachment styles are real, but there are a lot of misconceptions about how they work. Read More.

Google and Samsung are taking on Apple with a mixed-reality headset
The two companies are joining forces to release a mixed-reality headset that will compete with Apple’s Vision Pro and Meta’s Quest 3.

Sake made in space could sell for $500,000 a glass
Asahi Shuzo, the company behind the popular Japanese sake brand Dassai, plans to blast sake ingredients to the International Space Station. They hope to ferment a brew that’s truly out of this world.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Inner Mongolia, China
A herdsman tames horses on snow-covered grassland in East Ujimqin Banner of Xilin Gol League, north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

Malelane, South Africa
David Ravetto of France watches the elephants in Crocodile River, Kruger National Park, flanking the 13th green on day two of the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek Country Club.
Photograph: Warren Little/Getty Images
Bristol, England
Three children receive ‘best Christmas present ever’ bionic arms. Colette Baker, Finley Jarvis and Zoey Pidgeon-Hampton with their new Open Bionics arms.
Photograph: Tom Wren/SWNS
Market Closes for December 13, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43828.06	-86.06
		-0.20%
S&P 500	6051.09	-0.16
		—
NASDAQ	19926.72	+23.88
		+0.12%
TSX	25274.30	-136.41
		-0.54%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39470.44	-378.70
		-0.95%
HANG SENG	19971.24	-425.81
		-2.09%
SENSEX	82133.12	+843.16
		+1.04%
FTSE 100*	8300.33	+10.14
		+0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.179	3.142
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.270	3.242
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3967	4.3199
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6013	4.5391

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7024	0.7031
US $	1.4236	1.4223

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4952	0.6688
US $	1.0503	0.9522

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2684.35	2705.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.29	70.02

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1961, the longest bull market on record finally ended. Since it began in 1949, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen more than 350%. Over the next six months it fell 27%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.5%, or 136.41 to 25,274.30 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 20.
Waste Connections Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%.
Enghouse Systems Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 12.9%.
Today, 158 of 219 shares fell, while 58 rose; all sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.3%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.6%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 6
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 28% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.2% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 25.6% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.01t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.01% compared with 7.74% in the previous session and the average of 8.40% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -52.4174| -1.7| 5/44
Energy | -29.3766| -0.7| 10/31
Industrials | -23.5338| -0.7| 9/17
Financials | -10.9489| -0.1| 13/13
Communication Services | -6.8127| -1.1| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary | -4.7680| -0.6| 3/8
Real Estate | -4.5852| -0.9| 2/17
Consumer Staples | -1.4300| -0.1| 4/6
Utilities | -1.0815| -0.1| 8/7
Information Technology | -1.0630| 0.0| 3/7
Health Care | -0.3822| -0.5| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Waste Connections | -11.2300| -2.4| 54.2| 29.4
Shopify | -8.0620| -0.6| -37.0| 58.2
Cameco | -7.3530| -3.0| -19.7| 35.3
Manulife Financial | 2.7430| 0.5| -32.7| 50.5
Bank of Nova Scotia| 2.9310| 0.4| -34.3| 22.4
Celestica | 9.7950| 9.1| 67.2| 263.9
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — This year’s frontrunners, big technology stocks, set a record while Treasuries sank as investors braced for a slowdown in the pace of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts ahead of a meeting next week.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed for the fourth week in a row powered by a Friday surge in Broadcom Inc. across the entire chip-technology complex.
The tech-heavy gauge rose 0.8% to an all-time high for the second time in three days while other major US stock indexes struggled.
The S&P 500 slid 0.6% this week while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.8%.
Shares in Broadcom Inc. jumped 24% to a record after predicting a boom in demand for its artificial intelligence chips and reaching a $1 trillion market value.
Peers Marvell Technology Inc., Micron Technology Inc. and Nvidia Corp. also rose.
A widely expected quarter-point interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, could juice up this year’s seemingly unstoppable climb.
The S&P 500 — fueled mostly by tech names — has rallied 27% so far in 2024, and strategists polled by Bloomberg predict it will outpace European peers again in 2025.
While Wall Street has applauded the rally, that the rest of the equity market has largely lagged tech behemoths has been a growing concern for some.
“Tech stocks have reminded investors over the past week that the AI/quantum computing movement isn’t dying down anytime soon,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report.
Still, “strength in tech masked what was an average performance for the rest of the market.”
A Bespoke Investment Group analysis noted that there hasn’t been a single session in December where more stocks in the S&P 500 gained than declined.
By their calculations hat’s the longest streak in more than 20 years.
Around a third of stocks in the benchmark advanced Friday while the vast majority traded lower.
An equal-weighted gauge of the S&P 500 slid.
Meanwhile, the world’s biggest bond market sank deeper, with Treasuries set for their worst week in more than two months.
The yield on the 10-year benchmark rose to 4.40%.
“The market is readying for another move from the Fed that is more likely than not to be characterized as a hawkish cut,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen wrote to clients Thursday.
After a series of mixed data this week — including accelerating wholesale inflation and higher-than-expected jobless claims — swaps traders have pared back wagers on the Fed’s easing path.
They are now pricing in around three quarter-point rate cuts over the next 12 months.
A week ago they had seen better than 50/50 odds of a fourth cut and there may be more pullbacks to come.
The US central bank’s three-year outlook won’t fully incorporate “Trump shocks,” according to Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha, “implying the median three could really be two on a fully marked-to-market basis.”
“The Fed is adopting a high optionality approach around a baseline that seeks to keep policy dynamically well-positioned as we move into the high-uncertainty Trump period,” the former New York Fed official said.
In currency markets, a Bloomberg gauge of dollar strength steadied against a basket of currencies, notching a second straight week of gains.
Timothy Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Global Markets expects more gains for the greenback, noting the Fed’s easing cycle could prove shallow relative to Europe, where economic growth is weaker.
Swap markets aren’t pricing a cut from the Bank of England at next week’s meeting, despite weak data Friday.
The pound weakened after Britain’s economy unexpectedly contracted for a second straight month in October.
The euro strengthened after the European Central Bank sounded less dovish on rates than some expected following a policy announcement Thursday, forcing traders to pare policy-easing bets for next year.
China Letdown Asian shares fell as a key economic meeting in China pledged to boost consumption but failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus.
A gauge of world stocks marked its worst week in nearly a month.
“The news flow has been underwhelming,” Beata Manthey, head of European equity strategy at Citigroup Inc., said of announcements from China. “The markets want numbers. We didn’t get the numbers.”
However, Chinese 10-year government bond yields slid below 1.8% for the first time in history, as authorities vowed to cut policy rates and banks’ reserve ratios.
Investors also poured $5.6 billion into Chinese stock funds over the past week, Bank of America Corp. strategists said, attributing the inflows to the policy-easing pledges.
WTI crude futures climbed past $71 a barrel for the first time in December, up nearly 6% this week on the prospect for tighter US sanctions against Iran and Russia.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0496
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2618
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 153.66 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $101,662.76
* Ether rose 1.3% to $3,915.62
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.26%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.41%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $71.11 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.3% to $2,646.74 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Michael Msika, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Sujata Rao, John Viljoen and Robert Brand.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It is not the brains that matter most, but that which guides them – the character, the heart, generous qualities, progressive ideas. –Fyodor Mikhailovich Dostoevsky, 1821-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: La Virgen de Guadalupe, Mexico.

December 12, 1901: Guglielmo Marconi receives the first transatlantic radio signal in Newfoundland sent from England.  This breakthrough revolutionised global communication, enabling real-time transoceanic exchange.

Gustave Flaubert, writer, b.1821.
Frank Sinatra, b.1915.
Jennifer Connelly, actress, b. 1970

Black hole paradox that stumped Stephen Hawking may have a solution, new paper claims
As black holes slowly vanish through Hawking radiation, their information may be preserved in subtle space-time ripples, a new theory suggests. Read More.

Watch Chinese security robot with wheels for feet scramble down hills and perform acrobatics
With wheels and a choice of two legs or four, the DEEP Robotics Lynx is capable of traversing tough terrain. Read More.

Stone Age ‘CSI’: Archaeologists identify a family killed in a house fire nearly 6 millennia ago
Human bones discovered in a house that burned down 5,700 years ago are providing archaeologists “CSI”-style clues about the deaths of seven people in prehistoric Ukraine. Read More.

Herbal medicine vs. traditional medicine
Herbal medicine is prevalent across the world, but it’s difficult to standardize or regulate. Researchers in Thailand are exploring the science of herbal compresses to make this ancient remedy more accessible.

15 of the best places to go for Christmas
From England to the Philippines, these 15 places around the world offer up some of the best holiday charm for a Christmas vacation.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Giza, Egypt
Tourists ride camels between theSphinx and Menkaure, the smallest of the three great pyramids. Earlier this year, Egypt scrapped a plan to restore cladding on the monument after international outcry
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot-air balloons rise above homes carved into rock in the Cappadocia region
Photograph: Behcet Alkan/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Leslie Gulch is a canyon found within the Owyhee Canyonlands and is largely composed of ‘tuff’, which is rhyolite ash that was deposited after an eruption an estimated 15.5m years ago.
Photograph: Roger Phillips/AP
Market Closes for December 12, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43914.12	-234.44
		-0.53%
S&P 500	6051.25	-32.94
		-0.54%
NASDAQ	19902.84	-132.05
		-0.66%
TSX	25410.71	-246.99
		-0.96%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39561.96	-287.18
		-0.72%
HANG SENG	20397.05	+242.00
		+1.20%
SENSEX	81289.96	-236.18
		-0.29
FTSE 100*	8311.76	+10.14
		+0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.142	3.085
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.242	3.198
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3199	4.2633
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5391	4.4731

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7031	0.7068
US $	1.4223	1.4148

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4897	0.6713
US $	1.0474	0.9548

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2705.45	2705.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.02	70.29

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1791: The Bank of the United States opened for business in Philadelphia. Conceived by Alexander Hamilton to help rebuild the economy after the Revolutionary War, the bank quickly caused the first stock-market boom and bust–the Panic of 1792–by flooding the market with loans and then calling them in.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1% at 25,410.71 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.4% on Oct. 31 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%. Equinox Gold Corp. had the largest drop, falling 9.3%.
Today, 166 of 219 shares fell, while 51 rose; all sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 15 times. The next day, it advanced 10 times for an average 0.5% and declined five times for an average 0.8%
* This year, the index rose 21%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.9%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.1%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Oct. 25
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 30% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 26.3% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1% in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.74% compared with 6.93% in the previous session and the average of 8.42% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -76.0998| -2.5| 5/45
Financials | -60.7141| -0.7| 5/21
Energy | -54.9989| -1.3| 7/34
Information Technology | -24.7476| -0.9| 3/7
Industrials | -10.3062| -0.3| 10/17
Communication Services | -7.4031| -1.2| 1/4
Utilities | -7.3665| -0.8| 3/11
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9160| -0.3| 3/7
Consumer Staples | -2.1660| -0.2| 4/6
Real Estate | -0.1673| 0.0| 9/11
Health Care | -0.0810| -0.1| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -18.1600| -1.3| -19.9| 59.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -15.5100| -2.3| -0.6| 3.7
RBC | -11.4100| -0.6| -1.3| 32.4
Bombardier | 1.9950| 3.2| -21.6| 96.8
Empire Co | 2.2560| 5.2| 152.6| 29.2
TD Bank | 4.0410| 0.4| 49.1| -11.1
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — A rally that shot the world’s biggest technology stocks to all-time highs lost steam Thursday as Wall Street held off on big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.
The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 0.7% while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% as traders weighed higher-than-expected jobless claims against too hot producer price data.
The equity benchmarks had made strong gains in the prior session after an in-line US inflation report almost fully baked in bets on a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 18 meeting.
Data showed initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, ahead of economists’ estimates for 220,000.
November producer price readings released at the same time were mixed, with US wholesale inflation accelerating in November due to a surge in egg prices.
Treasuries failed to hold onto an advance after the reading as investors tried to gauge when the central bank will hit pause on interest-rate cuts.
“With high egg prices appearing to play a key role in the hotter-than-expected headline PPI, traders may be focusing more on the jump in jobless claims,” according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
While there’s been a steady stream of solid labor data, “the Fed is primed to be sensitive to any signs of a softening jobs picture.”
A third-consecutive rate cut from the US central bank is widely expected next week after the European Central Bank met expectations for a quarter-point of interest-rate easing, while the Swiss National Bank made a surprising 50 basis-point rate reduction.
A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar strengthened 0.3%, advancing for the fifth consecutive session as traders gauged the prospect of a Fed pause in early-2025 while US bonds fell for the fourth day in a row.
Treasuries have climbed immediately after readouts this week only to see those gains evaporate.
The yield on the 10-year rose to 4.33% Thursday.
Stan Shipley at Evercore ISI expects the benchmark note to end 2025 around 4.6%.
“The uncertainty of the US economic outlook has increased even though the recession odds have vanished,” Shipley wrote.
“This is because economic policy details are not clear.”
To Ella Hoxha, head of fixed income at Newton Investment Management, a “hawkish cut” from the Fed is possible next week.
“In that setup, the risk is still that you price the Fed to be a bit more cautious rather than more dovish.”
Despite Thursday’s pause in the stock’s markets relentless rally, Fundstrat’s Mark Newton sees more room for stock benchmarks to set new highs into year end.
“It’s a known fact that the PPI doesn’t really affect core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation,” said the firm’s head of technical strategy.
With only a handful of companies — including Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. — responsible for the bulk of the the S&P 500’s 27% year-to-date run some on Wall Street are growing increasingly concerned more stocks aren’t participating in the rally.
“Shorter-term breadth gauges have waned sharply, but this doesn’t have to bring about a correction,” Newton wrote to clients.
Small-caps, transports and the Dow Jones Industrial Average could push back to new highs, he said.
The S&P 500 gauge is now headed for its ninth consecutive day where the number of constituents falling outnumbers those rising.
That’s the longest such streak since Bloomberg started collecting the data in 2004.
In Europe, the euro weakened after the ECB cut.
Earlier in the week, Canada lowered its policy rates by a half point, while Australia hinted it’s moving toward easing and China vowed to deliver rate cuts.
Japan, meanwhile, signaled it’s in no hurry to hike rates.
In commodities, WTI crude contracts pared losses after the International Energy Agency warned of a supply glut in 2025.
Gold tumbled as much as 1.6%, the biggest intraday drop in more than two weeks.

Corporate Highlights:
* Riot Platforms Inc.’s stock jumped after a report that activist investor Starboard Value had built up a significant stake in the Bitcoin miner.
* Adobe Inc. was under pressure after giving a disappointing annual sales outlook, underscoring anxieties that the creative software company may lose business to emerging artificial intelligence-based startups.
* Warner Bros Discoverny Inc. is changing its corporate structure and creating separate divisions for its cable and streaming businesses.
* ServiceTitan Inc. shares opened 42% above their initial public offering price after the residential and commercial repair software company raised $624.8 million.
* Apple Inc.’s ambitious plan to create in-house components for its devices will include switching to a homegrown chip for Bluetooth and Wi-Fi connections starting next year, a move that will replace some parts currently provided by Broadcom Inc.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0466
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2667
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 152.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $100,098.25
* Ether rose 1.4% to $3,886.63
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.33%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.20%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.36%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $70.16 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $2,680.15 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Geoffrey Morgan, John Viljoen, Robert Brand, Elizabeth Stanton, Edward Bolingbroke and Sujata Rao.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
To be trusted is a greater compliment than being loved. –George MacDonald, 1824-1905.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
December 11, 1792: French King Louis XVI goes on trial, accused of high treason and crimes against the state during the French Revolution.
December 11, 1936: Edward VIII abdicates the Throne to marry Wallis Simpson.
On Dec. 11, 1941, Germany and Italy declared war on the United States; the U.S. responded in kind.   Go to article

1946: UNICEF founded.
1882: Fiorello LaGuardia is born in Greenwich Village.

Hector Berlioz, composer, b.1803.
John Kerry, US Senator, b.1943.
Tom Haydn, activist, b. 1939.

Ritually bent Bronze Age sword unearthed in Danish bog is ‘very rare find’
The sword, which has iron rivets in its handle, may be one of the earliest iron artifacts found in Denmark. Read More.

New quantum computing milestone smashes entanglement world record
Researchers have made significant progress in the quest for scalable and fault-tolerant quantum computers after entangling the most logical qubits on record. Read More.
Tiger Woods to compete for first time since back surgery
Tiger Woods is set to return to golf for the first time since having back surgery three months ago. Fortunately, he’ll have the support of his son, Charlie, who will also participate in the PNC Championship in Orlando next week.

Dolly Parton explains why her husband doesn’t attend events with her
Country queen Dolly Parton has been married for 58 years but we hardly ever see her famously private husband, Carl Dean. Here’s why the two rarely attend events together.

Man wins Spanish Scrabble championships — yet doesn’t speak Spanish
A New Zealand man hailed as a Scrabble phenom won the Spanish World Scrabble Championships, despite reportedly not speaking the language.

Japanese airline announces baggage delivery service for travelers
Japan Airlines is now offering to drop passengers’ luggage off at their hotels for a fee to combat overcrowding. Should US airlines follow suit?

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Van, Turkey
Young people sledge down a road closed by snow
Photograph: Ozkan Bilgin/Anadolu/Getty Images

A family of elephants walk together at the Aberdare National Park after their relocation
Photograph: Thomas Mukoya/Reuters
Sheffield, UK
‘A shop-window reflection of the city’s Christmas fair during its opening weekend.’
Photograph: Robert Mann
Market Closes for December 11, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44148.56	-99.27
		-0.22%
S&P 500	6084.19	+49.28
		+0.82%
NASDAQ	20034.89	+347.65
		+1.77%
TSX	25657.70	+153.37
		+0.60%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39842.99	+470.76
		+1.20%
HANG SENG	20115.05	-156.23
		-0.77%
SENSEX	81526.14	+16.09
		+0.02
FTSE 100*	8301.62	+21.26
		+0.26%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.085	3.018
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.198	3.156
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2633	4.2263
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4731	4.4175

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7068	0.7056
US $	1.4148	1.4172

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4863	0.6728
US $	1.0505	0.9519

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2705.45	2671.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.29	68.59

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1941, the New York Stock Exchange suspended trading in all “enemy securities,” including those from Germany and Japan
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 25,657.70 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on Nov. 21 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.2%.
Today, 130 of 219 shares rose, while 83 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 6.9%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 31% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 27.5% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.02t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.93% compared with 8.40% in the previous session and the average of 8.45% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 61.9993| 2.0| 37/11
Information Technology | 58.2323| 2.2| 8/2
Energy | 35.8237| 0.8| 34/6
Financials | 31.2696| 0.4| 14/11
Consumer Staples | 3.8143| 0.4| 4/6
Real Estate | 2.0924| 0.4| 11/7
Consumer Discretionary | -1.9547| -0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -2.5200| -3.4| 0/4
Industrials | -10.0112| -0.3| 11/16
Utilities | -10.4670| -1.1| 5/10
Communication Services | -14.9098| -2.3| 0/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 46.6800| 3.4| -25.7| 61.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 14.8200| 3.5| -3.6| 70.4
Brookfield Corp | 12.3200| 1.5| -20.3| 60.1
Nutrien | -3.4340| -1.4| 46.8| -9.1
BCE | -4.5410| -1.9| 44.4| -29.4
Canadian National | -6.4860| -1.1| 41.8| -10.5
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Investors’ enthusiasm for US technology giants sent stocks higher Wednesday, snapping a two-day slide after a benign inflation report cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.9% to a record while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, nearing a recent peak.
Broadcom Inc. led the advance following a report that the chipmaker was working on an AI deal with Apple Inc.
The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks were once again in the pole position, with Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc., setting all-time highs.
Wall Street’s optimism comes even as inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s target.
The consumer price index rose 0.3% in November for the fourth-straight month, while core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose by the same amount, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday.
The core gauge —economists’ preferred number — was up 3.3% from a year before, in line with estimates.
To Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, the report “gives the Federal Reserve the green light for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting, as it helps to confirm that we are still making progress on inflation even though it remains sticky.”
Swaps traders are betting on a quarter-point interest rate cut at the December policy meeting while wagers on more than three cuts over the next 12 months remains a key question.
Treasury yields resumed a climb in the afternoon session with the benchmark 10-year rising to 4.27%.
“The details were particularly encouraging for the Fed,” according to Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets. “From here, there is little ahead of tomorrow’s PPI update that will drive the rates market.”
Wall Street’s fear gauge, the Vix, fell below 14 following the data, an indication the market is expecting calm in the near-term.
Stocks and long bonds stand to benefit as fears of a higher inflation print evaporate, according to ClearBridge Investments’ Jeff Schulze.
“The debate for the FOMC next week between cut or skip is over,” Schulze said. “This inflation print should be risk-asset friendly and provide a tailwind to equity markets as we move through one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year.”
The dollar rallied after a report that Chinese leaders are considering allowing their currency to weaken as they brace for higher tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency.
The Canadian dollar advanced after hovering near a four and a half-year low once policymakers signaled they were ready to slow down on monetary easing.
The Bank of Canada lowered its rate by half a percentage Wednesday, its second straight outsized cut.
Other central banks are also expected to lower rates, and in some cases cut faster and deeper than the Fed.
The European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank are likely to follow suit Thursday.
Meanwhile, China’s two-day Central Economic Work Conference is expected to map out policies for next year, following stimulus signals from top leaders.
In commodities, crude futures rose after a Bloomberg News report that the Biden administration is considering new sanctions on Russia’s oil trade, a move that could tighten the market.
The White House warned that Russia may fire another intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, after what Moscow said were strikes on its territory with US-supplied weapons. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. is developing a server chip designed especially for artificial intelligence and is working with Broadcom on the chip’s networking technology, the Information reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the project.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. and CVS Health Corp. were among health-care companies under pressure after Bloomberg reported a bipartisan coalition of US lawmakers has drafted legislation that would force prescription drug middlemen to divest pharmacies they own.
* Hershey Co.’s main owner has rejected a preliminary takeover offer from Mondelez International Inc., people familiar with the matter said, potentially ending a fresh pursuit that would’ve created a food giant with combined sales of almost $50 billion.
* GameStop Corp. shares rise after the videogame retailer reported a surprise third-quarter profit as the company’s cost cutting measures pay dividends.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. shares fall as analysts questioned the probability of Sycamore Partners acquiring the pharmacy chain. On Tuesday, the stock jumped 18% after a report the two sides were in talks over a potential sale.
* PJT Partners Inc.’s chief executive officer said next year could be the second-biggest for mergers and acquisitions in a decade, and his firm has been on an “aggressive” hiring spree to prepare.

Key events this week:
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0495
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2749
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 152.58 per dollar
* The Canadian dollar rose 0.1% to 1.4162
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.5% to $101,318.11
* Ether rose 5.3% to $3,833.31
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.13%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.32%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $70.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,716.89 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Robert Brand and John Viljoen.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late. –William Shakespeare, 1564-1616.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

December 10, 1901: The first ever Nobel Prize ceremony takes place in Stockholm, honoring achievements in physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, and peace.  It set a global standard for excellence.
December 10, 1998: Six astronauts opened the doors to the new international space station. Go to article.

Alfred Noble, d. 1896.
Emily Dickinson, poet, b. 1830.
Red Cloud, Lakota Chief, d. 1909.

1973: CBGB opens in New York City.

77:
That’s how many Nobel Prize winners signed a letter urging the US Senate to oppose Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. The letter cites Kennedy’s opposition to vaccines, his criticism of the fluoridation of drinking water, his promotion of AIDS conspiracy theories and his criticism of HHS agencies, such as the FDA and the CDC.

Golden Globes 2025: See the full list of nominees
The nominees for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, honoring the best in television and film, were announced Monday. See which shows and movies earned the most nominations.

Why is New Orleans banning shiny balloons and confetti?
New Orleans, known for its celebrations and festive spirit, is now banning the release of metallic balloons following repeated disruptions to the city’s electrical services. Some residents are not so jazzed about the new rules.

See inside a 155 mph sleeper train connecting Hong Kong and Beijing
CNN takes a trip on the new service from Beijing which offers a perfect weekend getaway. Watch the video here.

‘An existential threat affecting billions’: Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last 3 decades
Climate change is causing unprecedented drying across the Earth — and five billion people could be affected by 2100, a new UN report has warned. Read More.

‘It explains why our ability to focus has gone to hell’: Screens are assaulting our Stone Age brains with more information than we can handle
Modern technology has fundamentally changed how our ancient minds work. Read More.

New thunderstorms wider than Earth are spewing out green lightning on Jupiter — and could make one of the gas giant’s massive bands disappear
A pair of massive thunderstorms have been spotted swirling in Jupiter’s “South Equatorial Belt” and are likely unleashing massive bolts of green lightning. Some experts think the pale clouds could end up altering the rusty band’s color — and potentially even making it “disappear.”

Ancient ‘land bridge’ that connected Siberia to US wasn’t what it seems, scientists find
The boggy landscape of the Bering land bridge may have allowed some ice age animals to cross easily, while others stayed in Asia.

How long does it take to travel to the moon?
The answer depends on many factors, including the amount of fuel needed, the moon’s orbit and the mission’s objectives.

What is the universe expanding into if it’s already infinite?
The universe is constantly expanding, but how do scientists think about what it’s expanding into?

Possible bust of Cleopatra VII found at ancient Egyptian temple
A small statue of a woman wearing a royal crown may depict Cleopatra VII, an archaeologist claims. Other archaeologists think it is likely someone else.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Nutcracker ballet in Nairobi – in pictures
The beloved Christmas ballet, with music by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky, was first performed in 1892. Known for its enchanting score and festive themes, it has become a holiday tradition worldwide
Senior company members of Dance Centre Kenya perform during The Nutcracker at the Kenya National Theatre in Nairobi Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

Shetland, UK
‘A rail of traditional jumpers to choose from in Lerwick. What a choice of colours and designs. Warmth and style … what more could you ask for?’
Photograph: Lynne Falconer

​​​​​​​Northumberland, UK
‘I took this picture outside my studio during Storm Bert. It shows my sculpture Moot, which is carved in wood and has a plethora of little gouged marks that became indistinguishable from the blizzard.’
Photograph: Joseph Hillier
Market Closes for December 10, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44247.83	-154.10
		-0.35%
S&P 500	6034.91	-17.94
		-0.30%
NASDAQ	19687.24	-49.45
		-0.25%
TSX	25504.33	-121.09
		-0.47%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39307.91	-59.67
		-0.15%
HANG SENG	20311.28	-102.81
		-0.50%
SENSEX	81510.05	+1.59
		—
FTSE 100*	8280.36	-71.72
		-0.86%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.018	3.037
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.156	3.171
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2263	4.1973
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4175	4.3867

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7056	0.7055
US $	1.4172	1.4173

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4924	0.6701
US $	1.0530	0.9496

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2671.90	2637.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.59	68.37

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, Charles Schwab, chairman of Bethlehem Steel, argued that the stock-market crash meant “nothing in the welfare of business. Wealth was founded on the industries of the nation, and while they are sound, stocks may go up and stocks may go down, but the nation will prosper,” he said.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.5%, or 121.09 to 25,504.33 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Nov. 15.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
Torex Gold Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.9%.
Today, 159 of 219 shares fell, while 58 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 6.3%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 30% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 26.7% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.40% compared with 8.26% in the previous session and the average of 8.52% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -37.3456| -1.4| 2/8
Energy | -25.0224| -0.6| 10/31
Financials | -17.5789| -0.2| 8/18
Materials | -17.0573| -0.6| 16/33
Industrials | -7.6859| -0.2| 7/20
Utilities | -5.1701| -0.5| 7/8
Consumer Staples | -4.6055| -0.5| 3/6
Real Estate | -4.4832| -0.9| 1/19
Communication Services | -4.3068| -0.7| 1/4
Health Care | -1.1382| -1.5| 0/4
Consumer Discretionary | 3.3067| 0.4| 3/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -22.1500| -1.6| 7.2| 55.9
Constellation Software | -10.6200| -1.6| -9.3| 40.8
Manulife Financial | -8.8520| -1.6| -0.5| 52.2
CIBC | 2.6450| 0.4| 53.1| 47.7
Dollarama | 4.1560| 1.5| -12.7| 48.9
TD Bank | 8.0820| 0.9| 15.9| -12.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell and bond yields rose, with Wall Street traders gearing up for inflation data that will help determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut or hold rates next week.
Just a day ahead of the consumer price index, the S&P 500 pushed further away from its all-time highs.
Oracle Corp. tumbled on uninspiring results.
Meantime, a gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-caps climbed 1%, led by Alphabet Inc. as analysts applauded the Google parent’s announcement of a major development in quantum computing through the use of its Willow quantum chip.
Homebuilders got hit as Toll Brothers Inc.’s profit-margin projection fell short of estimates, “Animal spirits take a breather ahead of CPI,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“US stocks are stalling near all-time highs as investors await this year’s final CPI report, which is expected to reflect another increase in the annualized headline figure.”
Wednesday’s CPI will offer Fed officials a final look at the pricing environment ahead of their next meeting.
Any indication that inflation progress has stalled could well undercut the chances of a rate cut. For now, swap trading projects an 80% chance of a quarter-point Fed reduction this month.
The market is pricing in the smallest implied reaction to CPI since 2021, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, who argue the readout will matter more this time.
“A softer print can clear the path for a year-end rally, with the second half of December being the second strongest period of the year,” a team led by Ohsung Kwon said.
“On the contrary, a firmer print can revamp volatility,” particularly after the post-election rally.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%.
Treasury 10-year yields rose two basis points to 4.22%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1%.
“Upward momentum wanes as investors trim some profits ahead of upcoming inflation data,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Primary uptrends remain intact, underpinned by bullish market breadth. Use pullbacks that confirm support levels as buying opportunities, particularly among leading sectors.”
CPI figures on Wednesday are expected to show a fourth straight 0.3% increase in the consumer price index excluding food and fuel.
The data will be the last major inflation data point before the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 37% of investors expect the market reaction to CPI to be “risk-off.”
There is an even split between the percentage of investors who bet the reaction will be “risk-on” and “mixed/negligible.”
Moreover, the 22V tally revealed that 61% of investors believe that core CPI is on a “Fed-friendly” glide path —without a significant tightening of financial conditions or a recession.
This is the highest value since February.
And 37% say financial conditions need to tighten.
That compares with last month’s 45%.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, one metric to watch is year-over- year core CPI, which has been at 3.3% in each of the last two months.
Current expectations again call for 3.3%.
“An in-line or lower reading likely cements a rate cut, while a higher-than-expected result could create some doubt over whether the Fed should cut rates again,” he noted.
The Fed is focused on both maintaining full employment and inflation, which has stubbornly stalled in the 3% range after a steep decline in 2022 and 2023, according to Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
“Nonetheless, the majority of Fed speakers in recent weeks have indicated that the central bank is on track to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming December meeting, even if that perspective isn’t necessarily unanimous at this point,” he noted.
Win Thin and Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. say that if the Fed does indeed reduces rates, it will be a “hawkish cut” that sets up a pause in January — and perhaps beyond.
A Bloomberg Economics nowcast supports expectations of a sticky core reading, while flagging downside risk to the headline measure.
“More worrying for policymakers, inflation looks set to hover uncomfortably above target through next year, with another of our models pointing to a rebound in demand drivers,”
according to Scott Johnson at BE.
BE’s model of the broad economic factors influencing US inflation holds mixed signals for the Fed.
Disinflationary supply shocks have helped drive inflation below its long-run average in recent months, but factors related to demand are now pushing the other way, after fading over the past year.
“Our US team sees the Fed moving more cautiously in the face of ‘animal spirits’ unleashed by the presidential election,” Jonhson said.
To Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets, elevated equity prices are unlikely to factor into the Fed’s policy decision next week.
“After all, if concerns related to the wealth effect fueling inflation haven’t had a material influence on the Fed thus far in the cycle, there isn’t going to be a tone shift now that stocks have the added boost of a business-friendly election outcome,” they said.
All that market bullishness on equities can be somewhat of a contrarian signal to Birinyi Associates’ Jeffrey Yale Rubin, who said it makes him “uneasy” about a further S&P 500 advance.
“Last year, we were lonely (and preferred it that way) in our bullish view which we articulated in the January edition of Reminiscences: ‘We want to own stocks because we are in a bull market and in a bull market that is what you do, you own stocks’,” Rubin said. “While we remain positive heading into 2025, we are uneasy given the bullish company.”
Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott says technical gauges suggest some caution into year-end.
“We are currently seeing/hearing a tremendous amount of bullishness ramping up for 2025- from strategist reports, economist forecasts, and from the investment community in general,” he said.
“This, in our opinion, may at some point become a contrarian indicator, as many areas of the markets remain overbought heading into the new year.”

Corporate Highlights:
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it now expects its net interest income haul to beat expectations for next year, reversing earlier guidance that analysts were being too optimistic.
* Boeing Co. said it has resumed assembly of its bestselling aircraft after a debilitating 53-day long strike, with November deliveries coming in at the lowest in four years.
* Sycamore Partners is in talks to acquire struggling drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* C3.ai Inc., a data-analysis software company, reported quarterly revenue that topped estimates and raising its full-year sales forecast.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s sales rose 34% in November, reflecting sustained growth from AI demand despite concerns that data center building will slow.
* Alaska Air Group Inc., the owner of its namesake carrier and Hawaiian Airlines, laid out plans for a dramatic global expansion while boosting its profit forecast.
* Eli Lilly & Co. approved a program to buy back as much as $15 billion of its own shares amid rapid growth fueled in part by the blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound. The company also raised its quarterly dividend 15%.
* Designer Brands Inc., the parent company of footwear and accessories chain DSW, cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
* MongoDB Inc., a database software company, reported third-quarter results and announced the departure of its Chief Financial Officer Michael Gordon. While analysts noted the strong results, Guggenheim said the departure was not a positive.

Key events this week:
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0526
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2772
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 151.92 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $96,524.56
* Ether fell 1.5% to $3,646.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.12%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.32%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,691.97 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Don’t lie, don’t cheat, don’t steal, don’t whine, don’t complain, don’t make excuses;
worry about the things you can control, and not the things you can’t. –John Wooden, 1910-2010.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

December 9, 1979: the World Health Organization declares the eradication of smallpox.  This marked a historic triumph, eliminating a disease that killed millions and shaping global health efforts.
December 9, 2002:  United Airlines filed the biggest bankruptcy in aviation history after losing $4 billion in the previous two years. Go to article

Remembering all your passwords is hard. Let’s make it easier
In the latest podcast episode of “Terms of Service” with CNN Tech Writer Clare Duffy, a cybersecurity expert shares the safest way to Ctrl your passwords and protect yourself from hackers.

Juan Soto agrees to historic deal with the New York Mets
Superstar outfielder Juan Soto and the New York Mets have agreed to a historic 15-year and $765 million deal, according to multiple reports. The contract is reportedly not only the biggest in MLB history but in all professional sports.

Parents are up against the ‘mother lode’ of holiday stress
From high gift expectations to countless festive events, it’s common for parents to feel stress around the holidays. Here are tips to make the season more manageable.

16: That’s how many Pearl Harbor survivors are believed to be alive. On Saturday, thousands of people gathered on the shores of Pearl Harbor to mark the 83rd anniversary of the bombing in 1941. A ceremony was held to honor service members who lived through the Great Depression and fought in World War II.

You have created such a space of joy and togetherness and love.  — Taylor Swift, thanking her fans after performing the final concert of the Eras Tour on Sunday in Vancouver. The official figures of how much money the tour grossed have not been released but it’s been estimated that it will make over $2 billion, making it the highest-grossing tour in history. The current record-holder is Elton John, whose Farewell Yellow Brick Road tour grossed over $900 million.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Waves crash into the Mumbles headland near Swansea
Photograph: Phil Rees/Rex/Shutterstock

Antibes, Côte d’Azur, France
‘I was particularly struck by this ethereal sculpture by Nicolas Lavarenne. Its balletic pose on the sea wall seems to defy gravity and gives a different impression from every angle.’
Photograph: Stephen Hallett

​​​​​​​Granada, Spain
‘The beauty of mathematics at the Nasrid Palaces in the Alhambra complex.’
Photograph: Nalini Iyanger
Market Closes for December 9, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44401.93	-240.59
		-0.54%
S&P 500	6052.85	-37.42
		-0.61%
NASDAQ	19736.69	-123.08
		-0.62%
TSX	25625.42	-66.38
		-0.26%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39273.02	+112.52
		+0.29%
HANG SENG	20414.09	+548.24
		+2.76%
SENSEX	81508.46	-200.66
		-0.25%
FTSE 100*	8352.08	+43.47
		+0.52%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.037	2.979
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.171	3.106
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1973	4.1529
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3867	4.3359

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7055	0.7065
US $	1.4173	1.4154

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4956	0.6686
US $	1.0552	0.9477

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2637.30	2640.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.37	68.30

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1931: President Herbert Hoover proposed the creation of the Reconstruction Finance Corp. to provide federal funding to help creditworthy banks, railroads and other companies remain in business. The market viewed it as an act of desperation, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 2.7%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 25,625.42 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Nov. 15 and follows the previous session’s little change.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.5%.
Bird Construction Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.1%.
Today, 94 of 219 shares fell, while 123 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 6.8%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 31% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.3% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.05t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.26% compared with 8.19% in the previous session and the average of 8.52% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -37.1758| -0.9| 25/15
Information Technology | -36.5712| -1.4| 4/6
Financials | -22.8908| -0.3| 10/16
Industrials | -22.2927| -0.7| 11/16
Utilities | -13.1970| -1.3| 3/12
Real Estate | -2.9762| -0.6| 5/14
Communication Services | -0.7730| -0.1| 2/3
Health Care | 1.1496| 1.5| 3/1
Consumer Staples | 2.1046| 0.2| 8/2
Consumer Discretionary | 3.8130| 0.5| 8/3
Materials | 62.4320| 2.1| 44/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -35.0500| -2.5| -30.2| 58.4
Bank of Montreal | -17.5400| -2.3| -30.8| 9.0
Enbridge | -15.2700| -1.6| -24.6| 25.9
National Bank of | | | |
Canada | 6.1330| 1.9| -4.1| 34.0
Teck Resources | 8.6840| 4.2| 55.6| 19.4
TD Bank | 13.5900| 1.5| 51.3| -12.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks retreated after a rally that put the market on pace for its best year since 2019, with traders awaiting key inflation data that will help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve rates.
The S&P 500 dropped from nearly overbought technical levels, following a series of all-time highs.
Nvidia Corp. slid as China opened a probe over suspicions the giant US chipmaker broke anti-monopoly laws around a 2020 deal.
Meantime, Chinese stocks that are listed in the US staged a sharp rally as top leaders in Beijing used their most direct language yet on providing monetary easing and boosting domestic consumption.
Data including Wednesday’s consumer price index will offer Fed officials a final look at the pricing environment ahead of their meeting the following week.
Any indication that progress has stalled on the inflation front could well undercut the chances of a third straight reduction in rates.
“This Wednesday’s inflation data may hold the key to the Fed’s next move,” said Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets. “So far results have been in line with economists’ expectations and
haven’t scared the market. However, an upward surprise should raise eyebrows at the Fed and could put another rate cut on pause.”
To Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, only a dramatic CPI increase would prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 slid 1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.19%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index wavered.
Oil climbed as China signaled bolder stimulus for next year, with traders also keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East.
“On the CPI and other inflation metrics, progress has stalled in recent months,” said Greg McBride at Bankrate. “This upcoming release will be closely scrutinized to see if there is evidence of renewed inflation pressures or signs of further improvement. “The rate of inflation has moderated significantly from a peak of 9 percent in 2022, but remains well above the target of 2%.”
The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists calls for a fourth consecutive 0.3% month-over-month increase in the November core CPI, which excludes food and energy for a better snapshot of underlying inflation.
On an annual basis, the core measure probably rose 3.3% for a third month.
“That sort of pace is riding the edge of acceptable inflation levels, highlighting the importance of this week’s release, said Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede. “The Fed is likely leaning toward a 25 basis-point rate cut next week, but only if it is reasonably confident that inflation issues are not re-emerging.”
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, those seeing an inflationary boom keeping the Fed from lowering policy rates can’t use the labor market to press their case.
“A continued cooling in the labor market keeps monetary easing in place,” he noted.
“While the start of Fed easing, the clearing of election uncertainty and ‘animal spirits’ have sustained the bull market, investors have more recently been inundated with arguments linked to market technicals,” said Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “It is generally good advice to never ‘fight the Fed’ or ‘the tape’.”
She bets positive technicals and seasonality may power US equities another 5%-10%.
“While bears argue that the year-end rally reflects stalling trading volume or ‘window dressing’ by market participants, bulls highlight favorable seasonal tailwinds, calm risk factors, and a supportive fundamental backdrop,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “This optimism, coupled with resilient November jobs data, has helped major equity indexes reach new record highs despite lingering concerns about Fed policy, labor
market risks, and geopolitical unrest.”
The S&P 500 will extend its record-setting rally to 7,100 by the end of next year amid a strong economy, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management, whose outlook is now the most bullish among peers.
Fundamentals “suggest the current resilience of the economy and the stock market appear poised to continue into next year,” the firm’s Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus wrote in a note.
Citigroup Inc. strategists expect mid-single-digit gains for the S&P 500 in 2025 amid increasing volatility, fueled by a soft landing of the US economy, artificial intelligence and Donald Trump’s policy promises.
Their base-case target is 6,500 points for the S&P 500.
The upper scenario is set at 6,900 and lower at 5,100; both the bull- and bear-case scenarios “frame an expectation for increased volatility,” the strategists wrote.
Post-election euphoria and seasonal tailwinds set US equities up for a banner autumn, and so far the positive fall performance is a sign gains can continue even when the calendar year turns, if history is any guide.
Since 1930, after better-than-usual returns in November and December, the S&P 500 has posted a median 3% gain in the subsequent first quarter and has risen more than two thirds of the time, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.
That means the US stock benchmark’s nearly 6% advance last month is helping set the index up for more upside in January, so long as stocks continue their climb over the next few weeks.
Hedge funds net bought US equities for the first time in four weeks with macro products, such as indexes and exchange-traded funds, making up nearly 90% of the net buying, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. prime brokerage desk’s report for the week through Dec. 6.
Single stocks were modestly net bought, with long buys slightly outpacing short sales.
Hedge funds net bought information technology stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks, though the sector is still net sold over the past month.
Industrials was the most net sold sector with last week’s notional short selling being the largest in more than two years.
Buyside US equity futures positioning has moved slightly lower after hitting a new all-time high, while some investors expect see a “significant pullback” on the horizon, according to strategists at RBC Capital Markets led by Lori Calvasina.
Investor exposure to stocks remains above average, but is not at extreme levels, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists led by Parag Thatte.
Exposure of discretionary investors has pulled back after the post-election surge but remains elevated, they noted.
Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech stocks is elevated, while the gap between cyclicals and defensives has closed.
Exposure to small caps is near the top of its historical band.

Corporate Highlights:
* Another activist investor — Barington Capital Group — is urging Macy’s Inc. to take drastic steps to boost its stock price.
* T-Mobile US Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mike Sievert warned investors to “be cautious” about the telecom company’s fourth-quarter results, which will be “back-end loaded.”
* A Morgan Stanley analyst admits he missed the boat on Reddit Inc.’s huge post-initial public offering gains. Yet he feels there’s still time to jump aboard.
* Mondelez International Inc., the snacks and sweets company, is exploring an acquisition of iconic US chocolate maker Hershey Co., in a potential deal that would create a food giant with combined sales of almost $50 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
* MicroStrategy Inc. bought another $2.1 billion in Bitcoin while its combination of equity and fixed-income securities sales to finance the rapidly increasing acquisitions draws increased scrutiny.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. has been added to the S&P 500 in the latest quarterly weighting change, joining alternative asset manager Blackstone Inc. on the world’s most-watched equity gauge. Workday Inc. has been included too.
** The two companies will replace Qorvo Inc. and Amentum Holdings Inc. The changes are set to go into effect prior to the open of trading on Dec. 23.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. reached an early renewal of an agreement to provide networks such as TNT and CNN to Comcast Corp.’s roughly 12.8 million cable-TV customers.
* Nippon Steel Corp. clarified its spending plans at US mills owned by United States Steel Corp. as part of last-ditch efforts to win over workers and politicians for its bid to buy the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker.

Key events this week:
* China trade, Tuesday
* Australia rate decision, Tuesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 3:06 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0554
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2752
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 151.26 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.9% to $97,174.71
* Ether fell 5% to $3,793.84
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.20%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.12%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.27%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $68.24 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,659.04 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Few rich men own their property. Their property owns them. -Robert Ingersoll, 1833-1899.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
St. Nicholas Day, Europe.

December 6, 1865: 13^th amendment ratified; slavery abolished.
December 6, 1973: House minority leader Gerald R. Ford was sworn in as vice president, succeeding Spiro T. Agnew, who had resigned after pleading no contest to income tax evasion.  Go to article
December 6,1962: Andy Warhol’s first solo exhibition opens at Stable Gallery, NYC.

Ira Gershwin, lyricist, b.1896.
Alfred Eisenstaedt, photographer, b. 1898.
Dave Brubeck, jazz musician, b. 1920.
Macy Gray, singer, b. 1969.

This watch was carved from a meteorite that hit Earth a million years ago
A luxury timepiece was sculpted from part of the Muonionalusta meteorite, the remains of which were first discovered in Sweden.

Former ‘SNL’ cast members reveal how little they got paid
Pete Davidson, who appeared on “Saturday Night Live” from 2014 to 2022, recently said he was paid around $3,000 an episode. Other cast members are also speaking out and joking about their compensation.

LA Times owner plans to add AI-powered ‘bias meter’ on news stories
The owner of the Los Angeles Times plans to implement an AI-powered “bias meter” on the paper’s news articles to provide readers with “both sides” of a story. Read why the move is sparking newsroom backlash.

White House shares photos of 2024 holiday decorations
The theme of this year’s decorations is a “season of peace and light,” the Office of the First Lady announced this week. View photos of the festive displays at the White House.

Rare gold ‘Brutus’ coin minted after Julius Caesar’s murder is up for auction
An extremely rare gold coin featuring Brutus, who helped spearhead Julius Caesar’s assassination, is up for auction in December. Read More.

Massive magnitude 7 earthquake strikes off California coast
A magnitude 7 earthquake struck off the coast of Petrolia, California on Thursday (Dec. 5). Read More.

A third of Earth’s species could become extinct by 2100 if climate change isn’t curbed
An analysis of research on most known species around the world finds climate change puts many species at risk of extinction, and the risk increases with more global warming. Read More.

Large language models can be squeezed onto your phone — rather than needing 1000s of servers to run — after breakthrough
Running massive AI models locally on smartphones or laptops may be possible after a new compression algorithm trims down their size — meaning your data never leaves your device. The catch is that it might drain your battery in an hour. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
The light show rehearsal on the facade of the Notre Dame cathedral, five-and-a-half years after a fire ravaged the Gothic masterpiece, on the eve of reopening ceremonies in Paris.
Photograph: Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters

Montreal, Canada
A cyclist braves snowy conditions in Quebec
Photograph: Serkan Senturk/ZUMA/Shutterstock

Water category third prize winner, Jelly Blubber Split.
‘An unusually large group (smack) of jellyfish were in Cabbage Tree Bay. This split image captures the jelly blubbers with Shelly Beach headland in the background.’
Photograph: Peter McGee/TNC Photo Contest 2024
Market Closes for December 6, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44642.52	-123.19
		-0.28%
S&P 500	6090.27	+15.16
		+0.25%
NASDAQ	19859.77	+159.05
		+0.81%
TSX	25691.80	+11.76
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39091.17	-304.43
		-0.77%
HANG SENG	19865.85	+305.41
		+1.56%
SENSEX	81709.12	-56.74
		-0.07%
FTSE 100*	8308.61	-40.77
		-0.49%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.979	3.078
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.106	3.150
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1529	4.1781
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3359	4.3359

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7065	0.7128
US $	1.4154	1.4030

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4959	0.6685
US $	1.0570	0.9461

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2640.15	2648.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.30	68.30

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1877, Thomas Edison, after turning a crank and hollering “Mary had a little lamb,” made the world’s first recording of a human voice. When a technical assistant played back the recording, he cried in astonishment, “Gott in Himmel!” or “God in Heaven!”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 25,691.80 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.7%.
BRP Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.9%.
Today, 62 of 219 shares rose, while 155 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 7%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 33% in the same period * The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.7% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.05t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.19% compared with 8.21% in the previous session and the average of 8.50% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 69.9784| 2.7| 8/2
Financials | 32.1990| 0.4| 12/14
Industrials | 2.8480| 0.1| 14/13
Consumer Discretionary | 2.0013| 0.2| 3/8
Communication Services | 0.1150| 0.0| 4/1
Health Care | 0.0304| 0.0| 1/2
Utilities | -0.0773| 0.0| 4/11
Real Estate | -2.5065| -0.5| 4/16
Consumer Staples | -4.6849| -0.5| 1/9
Materials | -27.5886| -0.9| 8/42
Energy | -60.5645| -1.4| 3/37
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 63.4000| 4.7| -30.7| 62.4
Bank of Montreal | 33.7000| 4.7| 16.7| 11.6
Intact Financial | 6.5780| 2.0| -37.9| 34.5
Enbridge | -8.8540| -0.9| -35.6| 28.0
RBC | -12.9000| -0.7| -27.5| 33.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -14.6200| -2.1| 60.9| 5.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest stock market hit all-time highs after US jobs data spurred bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
Equities extended this week’s advance, with the S&P 500 notching its 57th closing record in 2024.
This year’s surge is approaching 30%, with the American benchmark on pace for its best annual return since 2019.
Shorter-dated Treasuries — which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves — outperformed the rest of the curve.
Swap traders priced in about 20 basis points worth of easing at the Fed’s December meeting.
US hiring picked up and the unemployment rate edged higher, pointing to a moderating labor market rather than one that’s significantly deteriorating.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, traders needed a reassuring jobs report — and that’s essentially what they’ve got.
“Investors want to feel that the jobs market is on solid footing,” he said. “A dip in the unemployment rate would have been a nice touch, but nevertheless this should reassure investors that the labor market isn’t teetering on a cliff.
The market still favors a rate cut from the Fed later this month, and this report may not change that expectation.”
While the snapshot of the labor market nudged the Fed closer to lowering rates, it didn’t quite seal the deal — with key inflation data due next week.
“We still need to pass the ‘inflation check’ before we can be confident December is close to a lock,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to around 6,090.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%.
Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. climbed as TikTok’s Chinese parent company faces a ban in the US if it doesn’t meet a deadline to sell the app.
Nvidia Corp. weighed on chipmakers, with Qualcomm Inc. also down as Apple Inc. prepares a modem rollout that will replace components from its longtime partner.
Treasury 10-year yields declined three basis points to 4.15%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
To Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments, the “just right” labor-market report should be a benefit to risk assets at the margin.
“This jobs report came out right in the ‘Goldilocks’ zone,” he said. “With things more or less steady, the Fed should be in a position to continue to ease monetary policy over the next several months, and recent comments suggest the pace at which they will do so will be more gradual in 2025.”
The rise in the unemployment rate should give the Fed opportunity to cut in December, but if they do, the Fed will likely pause in January unless inflation stats decelerate meaningfully, according to Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial.
Recent data has signaled a possible stall in inflation’s descent toward the Fed’s 2% target, raising the stakes for next week’s Consumer Price Index.
The figures are expected to show core inflation, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, remained stubborn in November, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“U-rate gives no cause for a pause,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “While there is still another CPI report next week, we think it would need to be a very large surprise to change the Committee’s thinking.”
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the labor market appears largely stable despite a bumpy series of data.
His Cleveland counterpart Beth Hammack noted policymakers are “at or near” the point where the central bank should slow the pace of rate reductions.
Separate data showed US consumer sentiment hit the highest since April, while year-ahead inflation expectations picked up.
“Given the positive backdrop of strong economic growth, a healthy labor market, and inflation that is relatively contained, the Fed can keep cutting rates and that should allow the bull market to run into the end of the year and into early next year, noted Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
Continued and broadening profit growth and a strong economy can keep driving US equities higher in 2025 despite lofty valuations after two banner years for the S&P 500, according to strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc led by Nicole Inui.
The firm set a target for US equity benchmark at 6,700 for next year.
“Consecutive years of double-digit returns is not unusual especially in times with steady macro conditions,” she wrote.
A powerful rally in US stocks as well as cryptocurrencies has left the asset classes looking frothy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
BofA’s Hartnett said there’s a high risk of “overshoot” in early 2025 if the S&P 500 nears 6,666.
The bank’s bull-and-bear indicator shows no sign yet of exuberance among global investors.

Corporate Highlights:
* Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan and Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter should look into allegations around FanDuel Inc. and DraftKings Inc.’s conduct related to competition, senators say, according to a letter posted on X.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. edged up its full-year outlook on strong sales overseas, a sign the upscale activewear brand is fending off upstart competitors and navigating slower growth in consumer spending.
* DocuSign Inc., a maker of electronic-signature software, boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Analysts were positive about the early contract renewals.
* Petco Health and Wellness Co. reported third-quarter adjusted Ebitda that came ahead of estimates. Morgan Stanley said there were signs of stabilization in the business, while Citi highlighted the comparable sales beat.
* Smith & Wesson Brands Inc., a gun maker, reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed estimates.
* Ulta Beauty Inc., a cosmetics retailer, increased its annual projections for comparable sales and earnings per share  following a stronger-than-anticipated third quarter.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. raised its outlook after reporting third-quarter sales that topped Wall Street expectations, saying shoppers had an early positive response to its holiday merchandise.
* Aviva Plc reached a preliminary agreement to buy Direct Line Insurance Group Plc for £3.6 billion ($4.6 billion) in a deal that would create the UK’s largest motor insurer.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0564
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2739
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.6% to $101,607.32
* Ether rose 5% to $4,054.23
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.11%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.28%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $67.19 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder. –Arnold Toynbee, 1889-1975.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

December 5, 1854: Aaron Allen of Boston patents the folding theatre chair.  This innovation improved space efficiency and enhanced audience comfort in public venues.
December 5, 1996: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan questioned whether the stock market was overvalued due to investors’ “irrational exuberance.” Go to article

December 5, 1905: Mark Twain celebrates his seventieth birthday at Delmonico’s in NYC with 170 guests.

Christina Rosetti, poet, b. 1830.
Walt Disney, animator, b. 1901.
Joan Didion, writer, b. 1934.
Little Richard, singer, b. 1935.
Jose Carreras, singer, b.1946.

Milk chocolate vs. dark chocolate
While both can satisfy a sweet tooth, a new study shows a small quantity of dark chocolate is better than milk chocolate for insulin control and type 2 diabetes prevention.

This 74-year-old bird found a new partner and just laid another egg
The world’s oldest known wild bird left an egg-citing surprise for scientists.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Yorkshire, England
Christmas trees being harvested at Stockeld Park, Yorkshire’s largest Christmas tree plantation.
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA

Trabzon, Turkey
An aerial view of Kadiralak Plateau during winter. The 1,300-metre altitude plateau, 9km from the centre of Trabzon’s Tonya district, hosts nature and photography enthusiasts in all seasons.
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Hohhot, China
Migratory birds fly at Qiandao Lake scenic spot in Daheihe Country Park in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia.
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock
Market Closes for December 5, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44765.71	-248.33
		-0.55%
S&P 500	6075.11	-11.38
		-0.19%
NASDAQ	19700.72	-34.40
		-0.17%
TSX	25680.04	+38.86
		+0.15%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39308.38	-87.22
		-0.22%
HANG SENG	19560.44	-182.02
		-0.92%
SENSEX	81765.86	+809.53
		+1.00%
FTSE 100*	8349.38	+13.57
		+0.16%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.078	3.077
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.150	3.147
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1781	4.1897
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3359	4.3525

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7128	0.7105
US $	1.4030	1.4075

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4844	0.6737
US $	1.0580	0.9452

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2648.65	2640.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.30	68.54

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1901, cartoon pioneer Walter Elias Disney was born in a rough neighborhood of Chicago to a carpenter and a homemaker. Twenty-two years later, the Walt Disney Co. was founded.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.2%, or 38.86 to 25,680.04 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%.
TransAlta Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.3%.
Today, 109 of 219 shares rose, while 106 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 7%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 32% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.6% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 5.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.04t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.21% compared with 8.36% in the previous session and the average of 8.48% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 29.8780| 0.7| 32/7
Financials | 23.4140| 0.3| 16/10
Utilities | 7.4979| 0.8| 8/7
Consumer Staples | 2.2100| 0.2| 4/6
Information Technology | 1.2130| 0.0| 3/7
Communication Services | 0.5743| 0.1| 3/2
Health Care | 0.1144| 0.2| 2/2
Real Estate | -2.6000| -0.5| 8/10
Industrials | -4.3077| -0.1| 12/15
Consumer Discretionary | -6.2856| -0.7| 2/9
Materials | -12.8531| -0.4| 19/31
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 32.8400| 1.9| 57.0| 34.0
Bank of Montreal | 28.5300| 4.2| 146.9| 6.6
CIBC | 26.2500| 4.4| 168.4| 46.6
Barrick Gold | -8.1100| -2.7| -2.4| -0.6
Brookfield Corp | -11.5100| -1.3| 20.9| 58.5
TD Bank | -69.0700| -7.1| 235.8| -13.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks lost steam near all-time highs, with Wall Street traders gearing up for key jobs data that will help determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut or hold interest rates in December.
Equities dropped a day after the S&P 500 hit its 56^th record this year.
Short-term Treasuries underperformed, with the market standing at critical technical levels.
Bitcoin pared a rally that earlier drove the digital asset past $100,000, buoyed by President-elect Donald Trump’s pick of a crypto proponent to be the next head of the US securities regulator.
In the run-up to the US payrolls report, data showed jobless claims rose to a one-month high during a week that included the Thanksgiving holiday.
Economists estimate that nonfarm payrolls rose by 220,000 in November, rebounding after two hurricanes and a now-ended strike lowered October numbers.
The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.1%.
“We’ll get a fuller picture from tomorrow’s monthly jobs report, but for now, the story continues to be a labor market that occasionally appears to bend, but avoids breaking,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%.
The Russell 2000 dropped 1.3%.
Applied Materials Inc. sank on an analyst downgrade.
Tesla Inc. rallied as Bank of America Corp. raised its price target.
Meme stocks like GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. climbed after a cryptic X post from Keith Gill, the online persona known as Roaring Kitty.
Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 4.18%.
Swap trading shows the implied odds of a quarter-point Fed cut this month around 65%.
A measure of France’s bond risk fell amid hopes lawmakers will strike a deal on next year’s budget sooner than many investors had expected.
Oil inched lower in a choppy session after OPEC+ deferred supply increases for three months, but still plans to add barrels next year to a market that’s expected to be oversupplied.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 45% of investors believe Friday’s US payrolls data will be “mixed/negligible,” 32% said it will be “risk-off,” and 23% “risk-on.”
“Investors are paying the most attention to payrolls again, but attention to wages has been increasing,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V. “Our take is service inflation looks to be settling at a pace above what is consistent with the Fed hitting its 2% inflation target over time. That may indicate labor market inflation pressures, which makes wage inflation data more important to monitor.”
Leading indicators point to a roughly as-expected reading in the payrolls report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 180,000-240,000 range, albeit with a big band of uncertainty given the current global backdrop, according to Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
“With an interest-rate cut largely priced in at this point, the risks may be skewed slightly toward a bounce in the greenback if the jobs report revives the odds of a December pause,” Weller noted. “Though any market moves might be limited as the Fed’s policy decision is more around when rather than if it will pause rate cuts in the near future.”
A stronger headline would be warmly welcomed by markets, supporting a theme of normalization rather than a deterioration on the jobs front, according to Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“We expect a stronger reading to initially lead to a significant bear-flattening reaction, but see a likelihood that the initial knee-jerk is pared back after markets assess the details,” they noted. “We remain buyers of duration on dips and will look to higher yields as a possible entry point to reestablishing longs.”
One of the more popular trades within the fixed income markets this year has been the expectation of a steeper Treasury yield curve, with investors either expecting the short-end of the curve to fall and/or the back end to either stay put or even rise, according to Lawrence Gillum at LPL Financial.
However, stronger economic data has priced out the need for the Fed to aggressively cut short-term interest rates and now with recent commentary suggesting the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, the front end of the curve has stalled at current levels and has kept the long end range-bound.
“If the Fed pauses too long or if they suggest the ‘neutral’ rate is higher than market expectations, markets may become concerned about the deleterious impact of high interest rates, which may actually cause long-term interest rates to fall, further tightening the spread between short and long-term interest rates,” he noted.
On average, the 10-year yield is higher than the fed funds rate by about 1%, so the yield curve will eventually go back to its upward sloping shape but that may not happen until the middle of next year, Gillum concluded.
Since the US central bank began easing rates in mid-September, two-, five- and 10-year Treasury yields have risen from around 3.5% to above 4%.
The selloff has been accompanied by traders reducing the chances of sweeping cuts amid resilient economic data, with a little more than three quarter-percentage point cuts over the coming 12 months to around 3.7%.
A string of stronger-than-estimated data points sent the US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index soaring this year.
The gauge measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations.
“While the 10-year US Treasury yield may see upward pressure from economic strength and potential policy impacts, yields on shorter-dated notes could still fall, although perhaps not as far as in Europe, as policymakers there have more work to do,” according to Janus Henderson Investors’ 2025 market outlook.
Janus also noted that the global economy is somewhat late in the cycle — warranting caution — yet the data continue to defy expectations, and growth is steady.
What does this mean for investors?
“At the highest level, the combination of rate cuts and other potential accommodative policy in the U.S. and stimulus in China should lend support to the global economy.
Still, there are forces at play that make it imperative to apply caution when adding risk,” Janus said. “Broadly speaking, markets have been quick to price in the cycle’s extension, leaving valuations vulnerable to downgrades if risks increase.”

Corporate Highlights:
* American Airlines Group Inc. raised its profit expectations for the final months of the year, the latest signal of strong travel demand heading into the crucial winter holidays.
* Southwest Airlines Co. raised its estimates for unit revenue in the fourth quarter, citing resilient travel demand along with the realization of benefits from execution of its revenue management actions.
* A federal judge rejected Boeing Co.’s plea deal that sought to let the plane maker avoid criminal prosecution over to two fatal 737 Max crashes, in a surprise twist that threatens to prolong the company’s recovery from past scandals.
* Dollar General Inc. narrowed its full-year guidance, underscoring the discounter’s challenges in attracting bargain-hunting shoppers who have seen their purchasing power eroded by higher prices.
* Kroger Co. narrowed its annual outlook and reiterated confidence in its acquisition of rival Albertsons Cos. Being approved by regulators.
* Eli Lilly & Co. is spending another $3 billion to build out its US manufacturing footprint as it ramps up production of its blockbuster diabetes and weight-loss drugs.
* Toronto-Dominion Bank suspended its medium-term financial targets amid a review of company strategy as the incoming chief executive officer seeks to move the lender past a historic money-laundering settlement with US authorities.
* Bank of Montreal’s credit issues, which have plagued the lender all year and caused yet another earnings miss Thursday, have now been “contained,” Chief Executive Officer Darryl White said.
* Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce beat estimates after another quarter of stronger-than-expected credit quality, with its US business showing signs that it’s getting over its  problems in commercial real estate.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US jobs report, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.0584
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2752
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 150.07 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $99,151.39
* Ether fell 0.4% to $3,827.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.11%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.28%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $68.45 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,631.51 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If I had a flower for every time I thought of you…I could walk through my garden forever. –Alfred Lord Tennyson, 1809-1892.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree Lighting today.
December 4, 771: Charlemagne becomes ruler of the Frankish Kingdom following his brother’s death.  His reign was marked by political and social changes that had lasting influence on Europe throughout the Middle Ages.
December 4, 1980 The rock group Led Zeppelin announced it was disbanding after the death in September of drummer John Bonham. Go to article

Thomas Carlyle, essayist, b.1795.
Samuel Butler, writer, b. 1835.
Rainer Maria Rilke, poet, b. 1875.

Queen Bey is officially the GOAT
Beyoncé has been named the greatest pop star of the 21st century by Billboard, ahead of Taylor Swift at No. 2 and Rihanna in third. Billboard based the decision “on her full 25 years of influence, impact, evolution.”

Drone image of young sharks hunting fish wins photo competition
See the striking image of fish being attacked by sharks in the shallow waters of the Maldives, which has claimed the top prize in this year’s Royal Society Publishing Photography Competition.

Ed Sheeran will be first-ever Western artist to perform in Bhutan
The Grammy-winning musician will perform in the landlocked Buddhist monarchy of about 700,000 people located between China and India.

James Webb Space Telescope smashes its own record to find the earliest galaxies that ever existed
James Webb Space Telescope image of the stellar nursery N79 in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. Read More.

5,000-year-old artifacts in Iraq hint at mysterious collapse of one of the world’s 1st governments
Newly analyzed 5,000-year-old clay bowls unearthed in Iraq may be evidence of early government-like rule, a new study finds. Read More.

1,600-year-old burials in Crimea hold gold and silver jewelry from ‘rich women’
Researchers say the finds are from aristocratic burials between the fourth and sixth centuries.  Full Story: Live Science (12/3)

Scientists reveal ‘neural tourniquet’ that can stop bleeding with nerve stimulation
Researchers stimulated the vagus nerve in healthy volunteers and showed it triggered blood clot formation, which they say could be used to prevent blood loss after surgery. Read More.

Future wearable devices could draw power through your body using background 6G cellphone signals. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Salisbury, United Kingdom
Head verger Esther Lycett looks up at Salisbury Cathedral’s 28ft Christmas tree from Longleat Forest, after its installation inside the cathedral’s nave.
Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA

Tower Bridge, with the Shard rising to the left and the skyscrapers of the City of London to the right
Photograph: Jason Hawkes

​​​​​​​Sjusjøen, Norway
‘A typical Norwegian hytte (cabin) on a cold winter night.’
Photograph: Lindy Margrethe Andersen
Market Closes for December 4, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45014.04	+308.51
		+0.69%
S&P 500	6086.49	+36.61
		+0.61%
NASDAQ	19735.12	+254.21
		+1.30%
TSX	25641.18	+5.45
		+0.02%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39608.38	+331.99
		+0.85%
HANG SENG	19742.46	-3.86
		-0.02%
SENSEX	80956.33	+110.58
		+0.14%
FTSE 100*	8335.81	-23.60
		-0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.077	3.119
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.147	3.171
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1897	4.2265
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3525	4.4045

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7105	0.7108
US $	1.4075	1.4068

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4799	0.6757
US $	1.0514	0.9511

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2640.65	2642.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.54	68.10

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1989, M. Danny Wall, head of the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision, resigned as the top regulator of savings-and-loan institutions. The cost of bailing out the nation’s thrifts rose above $166 billion and charges of fraud swirled around Charles Keating’s Lincoln Savings & Loan. Writing in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Wall said: “In hindsight, I would have done some things differently.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 25,641.18 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.4%.
Spin Master Corp. had the largest increase, rising 5.0%.
Today, 106 of 219 shares rose, while 109 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 6.8%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 33% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.4% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 5.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.04t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.36% compared with 8.39% in the previous session and the average of 8.45% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 38.5391| 1.5| 9/1
Industrials | 25.0605| 0.8| 21/6
Financials | 10.6282| 0.1| 16/10
Utilities | 3.3917| 0.4| 9/6
Real Estate | 0.9643| 0.2| 9/9
Consumer Staples | 0.1164| 0.0| 5/5
Health Care | 0.0115| 0.0| 3/1
Communication Services | -2.4635| -0.4| 4/1
Materials | -13.4301| -0.4| 14/34
Consumer Discretionary | -14.6977| -1.7| 6/5
Energy | -42.6721| -1.0| 10/31
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 18.3300| 1.4| 0.8| 54.7
Constellation Software | 11.8100| 1.8| 4.1| 44.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 6.4760| 0.9| -23.4| 2.4
National Bank of Canada | -12.8100| -3.8| 153.2| 34.0
Dollarama | -15.0600| -5.1| 172.7| 47.2
Canadian Natural Resources | -23.2700| -3.2| 231.6| 7.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks hit all-time highs as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is in remarkably good shape.
The euro wavered as the French government fell after a no-confidence vote in Parliament.
A rally in big tech drove the S&P 500 to its 56th closing record in 2024.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed more than 1%.
Nvidia Corp. led a gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps higher, with the group’s surge this year approaching 65%.
Salesforce Inc. and Marvell Technology Inc. soared as their results boosted hopes both companies will keep benefiting from an industrywide boom in artificial intelligence.
Powell also said officials can afford to be cautious as they lower rates toward a neutral level — one that neither stimulates nor holds back the economy.
He spoke at the New York Times Deal Book Summit in New York.
“We view this as slightly hawkish — but stopping well short of challenging the market’s growing confidence that a December cut is the base case, which has been our view all along,” said Krishna Guha at  Evercore.
One of Powell’s favorite barometers of the economy — the Beige Book — showed economic activity increased slightly in November, and businesses grew more upbeat about demand prospects.
The S&P 500 rose 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.7%.
Treasury 10-year yields declined four basis points to 4.18%.
French bond futures held onto earlier gains after far-right leader Marine Le Pen joined a left-wing coalition to topple the government, setting the stage for further political wrangling that has weighed on the nation’s assets for months.
“The current market environment is clearly ‘risk-on’,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers. “Yet the evidence shows that someone has been buying insurance against a 10% correction in the S&P 500, even though — or perhaps because — we haven’t seen one in months.”
The “cost to hedge” against a 10% correction is around the highest levels that we’ve seen in three years, he noted.
To George Smith at LPL Financial, momentum could continue for stocks as December has been a good month for market seasonals.
When studying the proportion of positive monthly returns since 1950, December often delivers the highest — around 74%.
Despite the seasonality, Smith doesn’t rule out the possibility of short-term weakness, especially as geopolitical threats have the potential to escalate.
Equities may also need to readjust to what may be a slower and shallower Fed rate-cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing in, he noted.
“We remain tactically bullish into year-end given the positive macro environment, earnings growth, and a Fed that remains supportive of markets,” wrote JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Market Intelligence Team led by Andrew Tyler. “It is sensible to play the market’s momentum and see low pullback potential until mid-January,” they said.
To some technical analysts who watch and analyze price moves, and strategists that keep an eye on investor sentiment, the initial rumblings are starting to sound a lot like a stock market that has overheated.
A Bank of America Corp. indicator that tracks sell-side strategists’ average recommendations remains at its highest level since early 2022, in neutral territory, but much closer to a contrarian “sell” signal than a “buy.”
“Statistically (and paradoxically), the impact of 2024’s big gains has made the market look riskier for long-term investors, but potentially safer for near-term speculators,” the Leuthold Group’s Doug Ramsey wrote this week.
Leuthold’s major trend index (MTI) — which takes into account many different kinds of indicators — remains at a “high neutral,” but all of the indexes in the MTI closed last week with maximum-bullish readings.
All the short-term positioning, rally chasing and mechanical buying flow speaks to an attitude of just running with the market tide.
That doesn’t stop the potential for things to change when the calendar flips into 2025.
“To put it simply, and probably no one wants to hear it, but this is not a good set up — investors and speculators alike have been lulled into perma-bull paradise,” wrote Callum Thomas at Topdown Charts.
Investors have their hopes up for a Santa Claus rally, but a healthy dose of skepticism might be warranted after November’s stellar run-up, according to Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“The bar for success is now a lot higher for an economy that may still be in flux,” Cox said. “Yields show that expectations have moved a lot over the past two months, yet we haven’t seen any sustained, clear momentum in economic data.  Expectations matter, and the job market is under a microscope.”
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, the sustainability of the market rally will be dependent on the continued resilience of the consumer.
One of the best forecasters of consumer spending is the health of the job market.
“Markets continue to be driven by a combination of technical and fundamental factors,” Hackett noted. “The consistency of the rally is demoralizing to bears, creating a ‘virtuous circle’ where buying drives further buying. There are questions of sustainability into 2025 given elevated expectations and valuations, but that is unlikely to derail the near-term momentum.”
Appetite for equities has shown no sign of abating this year.
The S&P 500 made multiple record highs, surging over 25%, powered by technology shares and a broad preference for US assets.
The rally extended after the election of Donald Trump raised hopes of tax cuts and deregulation.
While American equities have persistently outpaced their global peers, BlackRock Investment Institute says that could continue.
The US benefits more from “mega forces,” driving corporate earnings, the firm notes.
That is supported by a favorable growth outlook plus potential tax cuts and regulatory easing.
“Some valuation measures – whether price-to-earnings ratios or equity risk premiums – look rich relative to history.
But they may not tell the full story,” according to BII. “Comparing today’s index to that of the past is like comparing apples to oranges. Plus, valuations tend to matter more for returns over a long-term horizon than in the near term.”
BII says the AI mega force will likely benefit US stocks more and that’s why the firm stays overweight, particularly relative to global peers such as European stocks.
“The upshot: We are risk-on for now, but stay nimble. Key signposts for changing our view include any surge in long-term bond yields or an escalation in trade protectionism,” BII concluded.

Corporate Highlights:
* Dollar Tree Inc. sales improved in the third quarter, a sign the discounter is making headway in fending off competition and drawing in more shoppers.
* Foot Locker Inc. cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts, citing more discounts and a pullback in consumer spending ahead of the crucial holiday season.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. boosted its forecast for fourth-quarter results, citing higher-than-expected bookings in November and December as well as lower costs tied in part to falling fuel prices.
* Brian Thompson, a longtime UnitedHealth Group Inc. executive, was fatally shot in midtown Manhattan early Wednesday morning in what authorities described as a targeted attack that sent reverberations across the city and corporate boardrooms globally.
* Eli Lilly & Co. said its weight-loss drug Zepbound outperformed rival Novo Nordisk A/S’s Wegovy in the first head-to-head trial of the two blockbusters.
* General Motors Co. will incur more than $5 billion in charges and write-downs tied to its troubled operations in China as the automaker tries to salvage its once-profitable business in the world’s largest car market.
* Royal Bank of Canada posted a sixth straight quarterly earnings beat, fueled by revenue gains across the company and a boost from its acquisition of HSBC Holdings Plc’s Canadian operations.
* Nippon Steel Corp. reiterated confidence that its $14.1 billion acquisition of United States Steel Corp. can be completed by year-end, even as the current and incoming US presidents oppose the takeover.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US jobs report, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0512
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2703
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 150.52 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $99,053.09
* Ether rose 7.5% to $3,887.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.06%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.25%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $68.85 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,649.93 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Life is short, art long, opportunity fleeting, experience treacherous, judgement difficult. –Hippocrates, c.460 BCE-370 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
December 3, 1989: Malta Summit ends Cold War.  U.S. President George H.W. Bush and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev declared an end to the Cold War during the Malta Summit, reshaping global geopolitics.
December 3, 1997: South Korea struck a deal with the International Monetary Fund for a $55 billion bailout of its foundering economy. Go to article
December 3, 1984: Roy Lichtenstein’s Greene Street Mural is exhibited at Leo Castelli  Gallery.

Joseph Conrad, writer, b. 1857.

2,100-year-old temple from ancient Egypt discovered hidden in cliff face
The temple is located close to Luxor and was possibly dedicated to the lion-headed goddess Repit. Read More.

Chris Rock and Martin Short to host last ‘SNL’ episodes of 2024
Rock will host the December 14 episode, marking his fourth time hosting, while Short is set to host for the sixth time on December 21.

Belly fat linked to signs of Alzheimer’s 20 years before symptoms begin
As the size of a person’s belly grows, the memory center of the brain shrinks, well before any cognitive decline is apparent, according to new research.

1,500-year-old riches and more than 100 weapons found under Iron Age chieftain’s house
Archaeologists in Denmark have recovered dozens of lances, spears, swords and knives along with a set of chainmail from an Iron Age chieftain’s house. Read More.

12 strange reasons humans haven’t found alien life yet
Scientists have been searching for evidence of extraterrestrial life for decades. So, where are all the aliens? Here are 12 intriguing theories … Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Tokyo, Japan
A man walks in Kiyosumi Garden. Japan has recorded the warmest autumn since records began 126 years ago, the weather agency said, helping push the country’s popular autumn foliage season into December
Photograph: Philip Fong/AFP/Getty Images

Miami Beach, US
The Great Elephant Migration art installation, which is traveling across the US promoting human-wildlife coexistence, is displayed during Miami art week in Florida
Photograph: Lynne Sladky/AP

​​​​​​​London, UK
Larry the cat sits next to the Christmas tree in Downing Street
Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA
Market Closes for December 3, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44705.53	-76.47
		-0.17%
S&P 500	6049.88	+2.73
		+0.05%
NASDAQ	19480.91	+76.96
		+0.40%
TSX	25635.73	+45.40
		+0.18%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38513.02	+304.99
		+0.80%
HANG SENG	19550.29	+126.68
		+0.65%
SENSEX	80248.08	+445.29
		+0.56%
FTSE 100*	8312.89	+25.59
		+0.31%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.119	3.081
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.171	3.126
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2265	4.1936
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4045	4.3682

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7108	0.7119
US $	1.4068	1.4047

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4782	0.6765
US $	1.0507	0.9517

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2642.15	2642.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.10	68.72

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2017, CVS Health agreed to buy Aetna for about $69 billion in cash and stock in a move to transform the pharmacy company and capture more of what consumers spend on healthcare. By 2024, CVS, under pressure from poor performance, considered a plan to break itself back apart.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 25,635.73 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.0%.
Fortuna Mining Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.9%.
Today, 138 of 219 shares rose, while 77 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 6.8%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 31% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Dec. 2, 2024 and 27.4% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.03t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.39% compared with 8.66% in the previous session and the average of 8.46% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 78.5867| 2.7| 46/3
Energy | 24.1383| 0.5| 28/13
Consumer Staples | 7.6274| 0.8| 9/0
Consumer Discretionary | 6.7782| 0.8| 6/5
Communication Services | 4.1661| 0.6| 4/1
Health Care | 0.9703| 1.3| 3/1
Real Estate | 0.0454| 0.0| 8/11
Utilities | -2.6850| -0.3| 6/9
Industrials | -13.0389| -0.4| 13/14
Information Technology | -23.8967| -0.9| 5/5
Financials | -37.2864| -0.4| 10/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 16.2200| 4.0| 29.0| 66.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 13.5800| 1.9| 341.8| 10.9
Wheaton Precious Metals | 7.8240| 2.9| 27.5| 35.9
Shopify | -10.1800| -0.8| 3.3| 52.6
Constellation Software | -19.3800| -2.9| 68.4| 41.5
Bank of Nova Scotia | -23.1900| -3.4| 188.6| 19.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally that drove stocks to a series of all-time highs showed signs of exhaustion, with investors awaiting this week’s key jobs report and Jerome Powell’s remarks for clues on whether Federal Reserve officials will cut interest rates in December.
Wall Street traders also refrained from making riskier bets amid intense volatility in South Korean assets as President Yoon Suk Yeol said he will lift a martial law decree, just hours after his dramatic move imposing it.
US equities struggled to make headway, following an over $11 trillion surge in the S&P 500 this year that drove the gauge near overbought levels.
With a negligible gain on Tuesday, the index notched its 55th record in 2024.
Positioning in S&P 500 futures is “completely one-sided,” according to Citigroup Inc.’s Chris Montagu.
“Things are getting extremely crowded on one side of the boat — the bullish side,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“Valuation levels are a lousy timing tool. However, sentiment and positioning are better tools. So it’s not out of the question that today’s extreme readings on these issues could create a surprising pick up in volatility before year-end.”
Just a few days ahead of the US payrolls report, data showed job openings picked up while layoffs eased, suggesting demand for workers is stabilizing.
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said a rate cut this month isn’t certain, but remains on the table.
“The question for investors isn’t ‘will the Fed cut again.’  but rather ‘will the next cut be in December or January’,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments. “Our base case is that the Fed cuts 25 basis points in December, but we have much higher confidence that another cut is coming in December or January as the data evolves.”
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.2%.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced four basis points to 4.23%.
Oil rose as the US imposed more sanctions targeting Iranian crude and OPEC+ made progress on a deal to keep output off the market.
Bank of America Corp. clients continued to pile into US equities last week as post-election enthusiasm persisted, with purchases made by hedge funds and retail investors.
Net inflows by the bank’s clients totaled $800 million in a holiday-shortened week ended Nov. 29, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said Tuesday.
The foundation for US stocks is still firm, but it’s starting to show minor signs of cracking as 2025 approaches, according to Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Their latest market-health checklist summarizes the state of 17 timely indicators in three categories — technicals, earnings trends and bonds/macroeconomic signals — and shows two red flags at this time — in revision momentum and economic regime.
There are eight mixed (yellow) signals and seven all-clear (green) ones.
“Technical cues are less than perfect given shifting leadership to smaller-cap stocks, but the price trend is still very strong,” they said. “Earnings cues have weakened a touch as comparisons get more challenging and margin forecasts wobble.  Macroeconomic indicators remain decidedly muddled, as all cues in our economic regime model show sputtering momentum.”
History suggests a Fed easing cycle could offer resolute support for stocks, and clearly more if it’s accompanied by steady economic conditions, according to Nathaniel T. Welnhofer at BI.
Since 1971, the S&P 500 posted an annualized return of 14.9%, and since the late 1970s, the Russell 2000 gained 17.2% in periods when the central bank cut rates, he said.
The results were much stronger during rate-cutting cycles in non-recessionary periods: Large caps averaged a 25.2% annualized return vs. 11% in recessionary periods, while small caps averaged 19.6% and 16.5%, respectively.
“If the Fed stops easing early, the pace of gains for stocks will likely depend more on the state of the economy,” Welnhofer added.
The S&P 500 has posted a 0% return on average in the three months just after the end of easing cycles, but is down 9.9% when the economy was in recession, compared with 3.3% when it wasn’t.
“The US economy continues to hum along, the Fed is on its path to lower interest rates, and earnings growth remains strong,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Kenwell notes that’s a scenario that could continue favoring the small-cap space — with the Russell 2000 being the top-performing major index since the US presidential election.
The gauge gained more than 10% in November alone — the second time it has done so this year after accomplishing the feat in July. Going back to 1979, when the Russell 2000 posted a monthly gain of that magnitude, it was higher 90% of the time six months later with an average gain of 11.4%.
“While the statistics are favorable for small caps moving forward, so are the fundamentals,” he said. “Even the recent spike in 10-year Treasury yields has done little to deter small-cap investors.”
“US stocks are likely to continue grinding higher into next year. In our view, the exuberance synonymous with frothy financial markets is far from widespread,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“While we expect bouts of volatility and corrections in the year ahead, we continue to believe that the S&P 500’s next leg up to our December 2025 target of 6,600 will be fueled by solid economic growth, the Fed’s easing, and AI advancement.”
Within the US equity market, she favors technology, utilities and financials.
A New York University professor known for his expertise on valuations says the “Magnificent Seven” mega-caps are a buy during corrections as most of them will keep generating money.
“As a value investor, I have never seen cash machines as lucrative as these companies are,” Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “And I don’t see the cash machine slowing down.”
There will be corrections and “I’d suggest that when that happens you find a way to add at least one, maybe two or three of these companies, because these are so much part of what drives the economy and the market,” he added.

Corporate Highlights:
* Intel Corp.’s search for a new chief executive officer will focus heavily on outsiders, with the chipmaker considering candidates such as Marvell Technology Inc. head Matt Murphy and former Cadence Design Systems Inc. CEO Lip-Bu Tan, according to people familiar with the situation.
* AT&T Inc. predicted sustained profit growth over the next three years, including double-digit gains in 2027, a payoff from its investments in mobile-phone and fiber-optic networks.
* BlackRock Inc. agreed to buy HPS Investment Partners in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $12 billion, a purchase that will propel the world’s largest asset manager into the highest ranks of private credit.
* SpaceX is in talks to sell insider shares in a transaction valuing the rocket and satellite maker at about $350 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Bank of Nova Scotia missed earnings estimates on higher-than-expected expenses and taxes.
* Honeywell International Inc. and Bombardier Inc. reached a deal on the development of aviation technology and settled a long-running legal dispute.
* MARA Holdings Inc. bought the North Texas wind farm in Hansford County from a joint venture between National Grid Plc and the Washington State Investment Board,
* Zscaler Inc., a security software company, gave a forecast for adjusted second-quarter earnings that missed expectations.
* Children’s Place Inc. posted profit that missed the average analyst estimate.

Key events this week:
* S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
* US factory orders, US durable goods, Wednesday
* Fed’s Jerome Powell and Alberto Musalem speak, Wednesday
* Fed’s Beige Book, Wednesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US jobs report, consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0508
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2671
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.48 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $95,676.48
* Ether fell 0.2% to $3,609.05
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.05%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.8% to $69.98 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,642.46 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The greatest use of life is to spend it for something that will outlast it. -William James, 1842-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com