January 30, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Holiday of the Three Hierarchs, Greece.

January 30, 1963: Coca-Cola introduces its first diet soda, Tab, paving the way for the diet beverage industry.
January 30, 1969: The Beatles performed in public for the last time in a 45-minute gig on the roof of their Apple Records headquarters in London.  Go to article

January 30, 1972: Bloody Sunday, Northern Ireland.
January 30,1948: Mahatma Gandhi assassinated.

Franklin D. Roosevelt, 32nd  US President, b. 1882.

Some Super Bowl commercials this year are selling for $8 million
Fox, the broadcaster of this year’s Super Bowl, is commanding $8 million for some of its 30-second commercial spots during the big game. Sources say the network has made at least 10 of these deals.

Soccer team inside the Arctic Circle has Champions League aspirations
Bodø/Glimt is an unlikely presence among Europe’s soccer elite, but this Norwegian team representing a town of 55,000 people inside the Arctic Circle has grand ambitions.

Britain’s Princess Beatrice gives birth to second daughter
Princess Beatrice has given birth to a daughter named Athena Elizabeth Rose Mapelli Mozzi, Buckingham Palace announced. See a photo here.

Carbon-conscious travelers can now sail across the Atlantic in a wind-powered cargo ship
Described as “the world’s largest cargo ship with sails,” the Anemos has opened its cabins to offer passengers a low-carbon trip across the Atlantic.

1,900-year-old papyrus ‘best-documented Roman court case from Judaea apart from the trial of Jesus’
A newly translated papyrus found in Israel provides information about criminal cases and slave ownership in the Roman Empire. Read More.

Ocean warming 4 times faster than in 1980s — and likely to accelerate in coming decades
Ocean warming has more than quadrupled in recent decades and is likely to accelerate even faster if humanity fails to address climate change, scientists find. Read More.

Asteroid Bennu contains the ‘seeds of life,’ OSIRIS-REx samples reveal
Scientists have found all five nucleobases alongside minerals essential for life as we know it on the potentially hazardous asteroid Bennu. Read More.

RIP Marianne Faithfull.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Toronto, Canada
The CN Tower is illuminated with green lights to mark the national day of remembrance of the Quebec City mosque attack and action against Islamophobia
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Reindeer walk the road in Kvaløya, an island in northern Norway
Photograph: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Beijing, China
A dancer performing the traditional lion dance during lunar new year celebrations
Photograph: Andrés Martínez Casares/EPA
Market Closes for January 30, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
44882.13 +168.61
+0.38%
S&P 500  6071.17 +31.86
+0.53%
NASDAQ  19681.75 +49.43
+0.25%
TSX  25808.25 +334.96
+1.31%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  39617.15 +103.18
+0.26%
HANG
SENG
Market
Closed
N.A.
SENSEX  76759.81 +226.85
+0.30%
FTSE 100* 8646.88 +89.07
+1.04%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.121 3.173
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.291 3.336
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.5325 4.5405
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.7764 4.7774

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6898 0.6942
US
$
1.4497 1.4405

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.5059 0.6641
US
$
1.0387 0.9627

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2756.30 2751.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future  72.73 72.62

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 2000, 17 dot-com companies spent a total of nearly $38 million on network television ads during Super Bowl XXXIV. By the next Super Bowl, at least three had gone into Chapter 11, largely due to the money spent on the promotions
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 1.3%, or 334.96 to 25,808.25 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on Nov. 21.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 165 of 222 shares rose, while 54 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest increase, rising 14.3%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain seven times. The next day, it advanced six times for an average 0.6% and declined 0.3% once
* This month, the index rose 4.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.1% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.5% in the past 5 days and rose 4.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.01t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.00% compared with 11.40% in the previous session and the average of 11.09% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 104.7090| 3.4| 44/5
Information Technology | 76.6366| 2.8| 8/2
Financials | 54.4781| 0.7| 15/11
Industrials | 34.0273| 1.1| 18/10
Energy | 26.0676| 0.6| 26/16
Utilities | 15.7204| 1.7| 12/3
Real Estate | 7.2277| 1.5| 20/0
Consumer Staples | 5.6256| 0.6| 6/4
Communication Services | 4.6336| 0.8| 3/1
Consumer Discretionary | 4.4798| 0.5| 9/2
Health Care | 1.3394| 1.9| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 34.8300| 2.4| 24.6| 12.8
RBC | 26.1700| 1.5| -15.9| 3.1
Brookfield Corp | 25.9200| 3.0| 4.7| 8.7
Loblaw | -2.1730| -1.2| 28.2| -3.4
Nutrien | -3.0070| -1.1| -8.2| 17.8
Sun Life Financial | -3.8720| -1.1| 98.8| -2.1

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks whipsawed in the final stretch of Wall Street trading, with tech under pressure ahead of Apple Inc.’s results.
Oil edged up while Mexico and Canada’s currencies slumped as President Donald Trump said he would follow through on his threat to impose 25% tariffs on both countries.
Despite a slide in the S&P 500’s most-influential group —technology — about 80% of the gauge’s companies advanced.
Buoyed by data showing a surge in consumer spending, economically sensitive corners of Wall Street such as small caps largely outperformed.
The US equity benchmark’s equal-weighted version — one that gives Target Corp. as much clout as Nvidia Corp. —climbed 1%, fueling hopes the bull market would broaden out.
That would help reduce concerns around the “concentration risk” from the tech mega caps that have come to dominate benchmark indexes.
Those jitters were on full display earlier this week when an artificial intelligence-model from Chinese startup DeepSeek added to doubts on whether valuations of the technology that has powered the torrid rally from the market lows would be tough to justify.
“This bull market is still ‘breathing,’ and we should expect more stock participation in the months ahead if the economy cooperates and rates quiet down,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
It’s not that the AI story is “doomed,” but “there are so many opportunities in unloved sectors that have been ignored for so long.”
While the bulk of the growth in S&P 500 earnings continues to come from the high-flying tech mega caps, growth is projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years.
Robust results are a much-needed driver for US stocks after as Wall Street dialed back expectations for interest-rate cuts this year.
Upbeat outlooks from industry heavyweights like Tesla Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. also buoyed trading.
While the majority of companies have so far exceeded expectations, disappointing forecasts have been met with selloffs, with Microsoft Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. being the latest examples.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps was little changed.
The Russell 2000 of small firms gained 1.1%.
In late hours, Intel Corp. reported sales and profit forecasts fell far short of analysts’ projections.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined was little changed at 4.53%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
The US economy expanded at a solid pace at the end of 2024, despite drags from a strike at Boeing Co. and much leaner inventory investment.
Consumer spending, which comprises the largest share of economic activity, advanced at a 4.2% pace — the first time since late 2021 that outlays have exceeded 3% in consecutive quarters.
The acceleration was the biggest since early 2023 and was led by a pickup in motor vehicle sales.
To Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors, while the data is all a bit historic now, the economy is “doing just fine.”
“Overall, the economy is on firm footing heading into 2025, which should support risk assets given the strong linkage between economic growth and corporate profits,” said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
At Strategas, Don Rissmiller says that even if that pace is starting to slow, the Federal Reserve can likely continue its policy pause for a few more months — to gather more data.
Weekly jobless claims data released at the same time unexpectedly declined, a sign of labor market strength.
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged as expected — after cutting them at each of their three previous meetings since September — and indicated that stalled progress toward lower inflation warranted a patient approach.
“‘Remaining patient’ and ‘no rush’ seem to be how the FOMC plans on operating into the middle of the year, with a bumpy path for inflation giving the Fed pause before reading too much into gains that could prove idiosyncratic,” said Marvin Loh and Hope Allard at State Street Global Markets.
“The US consumer has been unstoppable, supported by wealth creation, a strong labor market, and lending. Still, inflation is still a bit too high for the Fed’s liking and the bar to a March rate cut is rising,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley
Wealth Management.
On Friday, the attention will shift to the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index.
It’s expected to show a small acceleration in price hikes by increasing 2.5% from a year earlier, up from 2.4% in the previous month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Monthly US household spending figures on Friday will likely point to momentum heading into 2025.
Economists also expect the personal income and spending report to show a slight pickup in the personal consumption expenditures index from a month earlier.
“Friday’s PCE is likely to show that inflation is still elevated and above the Fed’s target, and it comes at a time when markets are hyper jittery about a trifecta of other issues, including big tech, AI and Federal Reserve uncertainty,” said Carol Schleif at BMO Private Wealth.
As the earnings season rolls in, concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
The emergence of Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek is seen as a positive for Apple as cheaper AI models could contribute to a long-anticipated — and so far unrealized — iPhone upgrade cycle and re-acceleration in growth.
The outlook for AI and iPhones will be in focus with results due after market close. 

Corporate Highlights:
* An American Airlines Group Inc. regional jet collided with a military helicopter near Washington on Wednesday leaving no survivors, marking one of the deadliest US air disasters in recent decades.
* Southwest Airlines Co. warned that costs will climb faster than expected as it grapples with heavy labor expenses, undercutting gains from strong demand for leisure travel.
* The US Federal Trade Commission is probing whether Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. illegally coordinated to limit driver pay in New York City, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News.
* The US Justice Department sued to block Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.’s $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks Inc., arguing the tie-up would harm competition in the market for enterprise wireless equipment used by large companies, universities and hospitals.
* Caterpillar Inc. warned that revenues will be “slightly lower” in 2025 as demand concerns weigh on the outlook of the heavy equipment maker.
* Mastercard Inc. reported earnings that beat estimates as the firm diversifies beyond its traditional payment network into anti-fraud services, data analysis and global money movement.
* Rogers Communications Inc. beat analysts’ fourth-quarter estimates as wireless service revenue gained and subscribers bought more expensive devices.
* Cigna Group reported cost pressures from surprisingly high catastrophic medical claims that are likely to persist.

Key events this week:
* US personal income & spending, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 1%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0410
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2438
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 154.24 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $104,968.45
* Ether rose 2.9% to $3,232.19

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.52%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.56%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $72.90 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,796.16 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Margaryta Kirakosian, Allegra Catelli and Divya Patil.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Once you replace negative thoughts with positive ones, you’ll start having positive results. –Willie Nelson, b. 1933.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 29, 2025 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Today is Lunar New Year.  Even if you grew up celebrating this day, you might not know the reasons behind some of the traditions; here’s the significance of the red envelopes you might see. Take a virtual tour around the globe through these joyful photos.

January 29, 1886: The automobile patent is issued to Karl Benz for the Benz Patent-Motorwagen, widely  regarded as the first modern car, revolutionizing transportation.
January 29, 1900 The American League, consisting of eight baseball teams, was organized in Philadelphia. Go to article.

Emmanuel Swedenborg, inventor, philosopher, b. 1688.
Thomas Paine, revolutionary, b. 1737.
Anton Chekhov, writer, b. 1860.
W.C. Fields, actor, b. 1880.

People who can’t ‘see with their mind’s eye’ have different wiring in the brain
People with aphantasia still generate brain activity when attempting to visualize, but that image may be getting lost in translation, a new study suggests. Read More.

New glowing molecule, invented by AI, would have taken 500 million years to evolve in nature, scientists say
An artificial intelligence model has created a new protein that researchers say would have taken 500 million years to evolve in nature — if nature were capable of producing such a thing. Read More.

Boom Supersonic XB-1 smashes the sound barrier, becoming the 1st civil aircraft to go supersonic in US history.  By achieving a top speed of Mach 1.1, Boom Supersonic has broken records and is on course to revive supersonic passenger travel.

Last ice age quiz: How much do you know about Earth’s frosty past?
How did woolly mammoths survive the last ice age? And how thick was the ice over New York City? Test your knowledge by taking our quiz. Read More.

‘Stranded’ astronauts?
Elon Musk on Tuesday said SpaceX will bring home two Starliner astronauts who have been on the International Space Station longer than expected. However, NASA announced that plan months ago.

Why you should clean exercise equipment
The number of harmful bacteria on gym equipment may be whey beyond your expectations … Read why you should frequently sanitize gym surfaces, especially yoga mats.

The Middle East’s first super-luxury train will gleam gold
Dream of the Desert is a train set to whisk people across Saudi Arabia — in style, according to the designs that have just been released.

This designer is making waves with her ‘four-dimensional’ fashion
She’s the sister of Nigerian soccer legend Sunday Oliseh, but with her fashion label Tesslo, Tessy Oliseh-Amaize is making a name for herself in the US fashion scene.

  1000 Yen:  That’s how much it will cost violators who are caught smoking in Osaka, Japan, after local officials this week announced a citywide ban on cigarettes and vapes. The 1,000 yen fine (about $6) is             intended to “beautify” the city ahead of hosting the World Expo later this year.

“The supply has been improving, but still not enough to meet with demand”. –— Ryan Delany, the chief analyst at Coffee Trading Academy, a research company that focuses on the global coffee market. This week, coffee prices hit a new high after the Trump administration threatened a 25% tariff on Colombia — the third largest coffee-producing country in the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dublin, Ireland
‘Morning breaks in Howth.’
Photograph: Fran Cassidy

Arizona, US
‘Antelope Canyon – nature’s abstract painting.’
Photograph: Art Seaman

Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
‘The city at dusk. Is it the only snow we will have this year? It melted in a couple of days.’
Photograph: Stéphane Maïcon
Market Closes for January 29, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
44713.52 -136.83
-0.31%
S&P 500  6039.31 -28.39
-0.47%
NASDAQ  19632.32 -101.27
-0.51%
TSX  25473.29 +53.83
+0.21%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  39396.84 -17.94
-0.05%
HANG
SENG
Market
Closed
N.A.
SENSEX  76532.96 +631.55
+0.83%
FTSE 100* 8557.81 +23.94
+0.28%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.173 3.203
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.336 3.364
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.5405 4.5323
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.7774 4.7754

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6942 0.6940
US
$
1.4405 1.4409

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.5022 0.6657
US
$
1.0428 0.9589

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2751.90 2742.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future  72.62 73.17

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 1886, Karl Benz received a German patent for his “motorwagen,” a frail and ungainly vehicle with three wheels and a wooden chassis. It was the world’s first automobile.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.2%, or 53.84 to 25,473.30 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Dec. 11.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.6%.
NexGen Energy Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 6.7%.
Today, 121 of 222 shares rose, while 96 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 3%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 24.5% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.40% compared with 11.51% in the previous session and the average of 11.05% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 39.1303| 0.9| 35/7
Materials | 27.9525| 0.9| 36/13
Financials | 6.7688| 0.1| 14/11
Consumer Staples | 6.0926| 0.6| 6/4
Information Technology | -0.3175| 0.0| 4/5
Health Care | -0.8582| -1.2| 1/3
Industrials | -3.1995| -0.1| 16/12
Utilities | -4.1355| -0.4| 3/12
Consumer Discretionary | -4.6905| -0.6| 3/7
Communication Services | -5.5936| -0.9| 1/4
Real Estate | -7.3115| -1.5| 2/18
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Celestica | 7.2860| 6.6| 91.0| 9.3
Canadian Natural Resources | 7.0950| 1.1| -38.4| -0.3
Cameco | 6.9500| 3.3| 35.3| -2.2
Waste Connections | -4.0850| -0.9| 14.0| 5.9
Shopify | -6.2860| -0.4| -1.5| 10.1
RBC | -9.9120| -0.6| 81.2| 1.6

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks slipped and bond yields rose, though both pared bigger moves as early concern that the Federal Reserve was growing more worried about inflation got tamped down by Chair Jerome Powell in a press conference.
The S&P 500 trimmed by about half a slide that earlier approached 1%.
Big tech remained under pressure ahead of the start of the group’s earnings season.
In late hours, Microsoft Corp. tumbled 5.5% after its cloud revenue missed estimates.
The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5%.
In a statement, officials repeated that inflation remains “somewhat elevated” but removed a reference to it having made progress toward their 2% goal.
Later, Powell clarified the reference to inflation was just a decision to shorten the sentence, rather than send any sort of meaningful signal.
“Never mind, says Powell,” noted Peter Boockvar, author of The Boock Report.
“Jay Powell in his presser said the tweaks in comments on the labor market and inflation in the FOMC statement should not be interpreted as a signal.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, Powell’s press conference is coming across as “appreciably less hawkish” than the statement updates.
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.3%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.55%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
The loonie pared losses after the Bank of Canada cut rates, but dropped guidance on any further adjustments to borrowing costs.

Wall Street’s Reaction to Fed:
* Ivan Feinseth at Tigress Financial Intelligence:
Overall, nothing is really changed in the Fed’s outlook. Powell believes that inflation remains on a slow but steady downtrend and the labor market and housing markets have started to firm which has helped to lift the stock prices.
* Scott Colyer at Advisors Asset Management:
Powell’s comments are simply that they want to see more information but that they feel they have made long term progress on inflation and the labor markets remain strong.
This is a win on both mandates.
* Frank Monkam at Buffalo Bayou Commodities:
I don’t think the Fed did anything catastrophic yet.
They were hawkish a little bit, but there’s nothing really to derail a potential move of the lows if earnings were to come in favorably.
I think it’s a good opportunity to keep in some dry powder going into earnings and buy the dip in US stocks.
* David Russell at TradeStation:
The statement was a little hawkish, but policymakers are on hold with a long break until the March meeting.
Data between now and then will set the tone for that next big decision.
* Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management:
Yet, in terms of guidance, the reality is that the Fed is simply trying to respond to the data and the new administration’s policies as they unfold.
At times like these, when government policy – particularly tariff policy – is so uncertain, they do not have a forecasting edge.
Keeping policy rates on hold until a clear direction starts to emerge is sensible.
But make no mistake, if next month brings a second consecutive soft inflation print, coupled with a slight weakening in jobs growth, we may start to hear a renewed dovish tone to Fedspeak.
* Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment:
We would continue to focus on why the Fed won’t cut anytime soon, specifically a strong economy and labor, which bodes well for solid corporate earnings growth.
We would be buyers of U.S. large-cap, and the energy, communications services, financials, and industrials sectors on pullbacks.
* Greg McBride at Bankrate:
The progress toward 2% inflation has stalled out, and the Fed knows it.
They gave no indication in their post-meeting statement that a resumption of rate cuts is likely at the next meeting in March.
It will take a run of good inflation data to get us there, whenever that may be.
* Jeffrey J. Roach at LPL Financial:
With the data we have currently, the Fed would likely hold rates unchanged at their March 19 meeting.
Solid income growth for most households over the past year has kept services inflation elevated.
Businesses are expanding operations, consumers have a healthy appetite for travel and leisure, and animal spirits are still elevated.
These conditions make it difficult for the Fed to cut rates without reigniting broad inflation pressures.
Aside from the Fed decision, traders focused on the start of the mega cap earnings season.
While profits from the Magnificent Seven behemoths are still rising — and far outpacing the rest of the market — growth is projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years.
Those briefings have headier stakes now, thanks to DeepSeek. The US tech behemoths are under increasing scrutiny for their spending on artificial intelligence and the meager returns they’re generating from the technology, as virtually all of Wall Street tries to understand how the Chinese AI upstart managed, seemingly overnight, to catch up at what appears to be a sliver of the cost.
The recent volatility among tech giants has been particularly worrisome for Wall Street, as the S&P 500’s leadership hasn’t been this concentrated in more than 20 years.
Data shows that less than one-third of index members were able to outperform the S&P 500 during the past two years, as Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett has called out.
That resembles the run-up to the dot-com bubble at the end of the 1990s, when a similarly slim cadre of stocks were beating the benchmark.
The risks for markets from such concentration have been on display this week, as the DeepSeek jolt wiped out half a trillion dollars of Nvidia’s market value.
“The DeepSeek correction in tech stocks has not changed the overall concentration problem in the S&P 500,” said Torsten Slok at Apollo.
“Investors in the S&P 500 continue to be dramatically over-exposed to the tech sector.”
The tech-led selloff in US equities at the start of this week was just a blip, given the positive outlook for the economy, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
That slump isn’t a harbinger of a sustained decline in stocks, the Goldman team led by Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note.
“Most bear markets are triggered by expectations of falling profits driven by fears of recession,” which has a low probability of occurring in the next 12 months, the strategists said.
US stocks are at a critical juncture where a disorderly selloff in artificial intelligence-related stocks risks sinking the broader market, according to Pictet Wealth Management.
Although US equities remain a top pick at the firm, valuations look vulnerable after a 70% rally in the S&P 500 since late 2022 that was driven by a small group of tech stocks, according to Geraldine Sundstrom, head of investment offering at Pictet Wealth.
“This type of concentration typically doesn’t last forever and we feel stocks will mean revert to an environment where the performance is broader,” Sundstrom said at a media roundtable event in London.
The advent of cheaper artificial intelligence models is a “net positive” for global equity markets as it will fuel incremental growth, bring forward efficiency gains and drive inflation lower, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists Dubravko Lakos-Bujas.
“The DeepSeek selloff is an example of an unexpected surprise that cut right through the market’s crown jewels, the Magnificent Seven,” said David Laut at Abound Financial.
“While the markets have staged a nice rebound since Monday’s declines, a larger correction doesn’t happen without the crown jewels being stolen or at least threatened, and that’s exactly what happened on Monday. A larger correction in AI is still possible.”
Laut also noted that this week’s stock market volatility is a window of what to expect this year. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Trump Media and Technology Group Corp. launched a financial- services and fintech brand dubbed Truth.Fi, with a focus on crypto and customized exchange-traded funds.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. representatives met with Donald Trump’s antitrust enforcers on Tuesday over its $14 billion bid to buy Juniper Networks Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Apple Inc. has been secretly working with SpaceX and T-Mobile US Inc. to add support for the Starlink network in its latest iPhone software, providing an alternative to the company’s in- house satellite-communication service.
* ASML Holding NV reported booking orders worth twice as much as analysts expected, as the artificial intelligence boom fuels demand for its chipmaking machines.
* Nasdaq Inc. Chief Executive Officer Adena Friedman said she expects a strong environment for initial public offerings in the second quarter and balance of 2025 as investors gain confidence from stabilizing interest rates and inflation.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. published benchmark scores and touted what it called world-leading performance with its new artificial intelligence model release.
* Starbucks Corp. reported better-than-expected quarterly results, luring back lapsed customers with coffee-focused ads and by removing extra charges for nondairy milk.
* T-Mobile US Inc. reported fourth-quarter results that beat analysts’ projections, benefiting from continued growth in wireless subscribers and home internet customers.
* Cigna Group plans to limit patients’ out-of-pocket expenses for medications as the insurer faces pressure from Washington over its role in prescription costs.
* Bankrupt Spirit Airlines Inc. rejected a new acquisition offer from the parent of Frontier Airlines but said it remains open to a long-discussed combination of the budget carriers.
* Spotify Technology SA won dismissal of a lawsuit alleging it made a change to its premium service that cheated songwriters out of royalties.
* A judge ordered Paramount Global to hand over some internal files to a pension fund that’s raising questions about the acquisition by Skydance Media, which shifts control of the storied Hollywood studio to producer David Ellison.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone ECB rate decision, consumer confidence, unemployment, GDP, Thursday
* US GDP, jobless claims, Thursday
* Apple, Deutsche Bank earnings, Thursday
* US personal income & spending, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 3:59 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0411
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2439
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 155.35 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $104,279.26
* Ether rose 2.8% to $3,138.57

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.55%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.62%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $72.91 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,755.12 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Natalia Kniazhevich, Margaryta Kirakosian, Sujata Rao and Aya Wagatsuma.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Training is potent. Training toward higher and higher, and ever higher ideals is worth any man’s thought and labor and diligence. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 28, 2025 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
January 28, 1986: Challenger Space Shuttle explosion, 73 seconds after liftoff from Cape Canaveral, killing all seven crew members.  Go to article

January 28, 1958: The first Leo brick design is patented, creating one of the most iconic and enduring toys in history.

1,200-year-old remains of dismembered pregnant woman in Ecuador hint at ‘enigmatic’ sacrifice to thwart El Niño
The unusual burial of a woman and fetus in prehistoric Ecuador may reflect the community’s fear of her power. Read More.

Over 400 gold and silver Roman-era coins unearthed in the Netherlands depict rulers from Rome, Britain and Africa.

We may finally know what causes Mars’ gigantic, planet-wide dust storms
Mars’ southern hemisphere absorbs a lot of the sun’s energy during the Red Planet’s spring, and that may be causing Mars’ dust storms, a new study suggests. Read More.

Thieves steal ancient artifacts in museum heist
A 2,500-year-old gold helmet was among the valuable items taken during a heist at the Drents Museum in the Netherlands.

Tourists look forward to flight routes connecting China and India
China and India have agreed to resume direct commercial flights for the first time in five years. Here’s what travelers should know.

Do you need new workout clothes?
Expensive doesn’t mean better when choosing athletic apparel, experts say.

To have one of those in Maine was pretty shocking.  — A resident in York County, Maine, after a magnitude 3.8 earthquake rattled parts of the New England region on Monday. The startling quake in an unexpected area should serve as a wake-up call for businesses, schools and homeowners everywhere to consider having safety protocols for earthquakes, the resident said.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Lerwick, Shetland Islands
Members of the Up Helly Aa festival’s ‘Jarl Squad’ pose with a replica Viking longship after the morning parade in Lerwick. Up Helly Aa dates back to the 1880s and celebrates Viking culture and the heritage of the Shetland Islands
Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Lambs born at Noah’s Ark Zoo farm in Wraxall, Somerset, have been named Nik and Nak after a brand of potato crisps
Photograph: Noah’s Ark Zoo Farm/SWNS

​​​​​​​Paris, France
Visitors take photographs on their phones of Leonardo da Vinci’s painting of the Mona Lisa, at the Louvre museum
Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP
Market Closes for January 28, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
44850.35 +136.77
+0.31%
S&P 500  6067.70 +55.42
+0.92%
NASDAQ  19733.59 +391.76
+2.03%
TSX  25419.45 +130.30
+0.52%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  39016.87 -548.93
-1.39%
HANG
SENG
20225.11 +27.34
+0.14%
SENSEX  75901.41 +535.24
+0.71%
FTSE 100* 8533.87 +30.16
+0.35%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.203 3.200
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.364 3.353
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.5323 4.5464
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.7754 4.7815

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6940 0.6948
US
$
1.4409 1.4392

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.5029 0.6654
US
$
1.0434 0.9584

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2742.40 2776.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future  73.17 73.17

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 2002, Global Crossing, a poster child of dot-com era investment mania, filed for bankruptcy protection. The company, launched by former Drexel Burnham junk-bond trader Gary Winnick five years earlier, spent some $15 billion building fiber-optic networks in 27 countries before going under.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 25,419.45 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.9% on Jan. 17 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.7%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 5 of 11 sectors gained; 96 of 222 shares rose, while 119 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 9.6%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.8%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 24.2% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 2.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.98t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.51% compared with 11.52% in the previous session and the average of 11.04% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 160.6340| 6.3| 10/0
Financials | 20.5341| 0.2| 12/14
Materials | 3.9362| 0.1| 29/18
Communication Services | 1.8642| 0.3| 4/1
Real Estate | 1.5846| 0.3| 11/6
Consumer Discretionary | -0.2930| 0.0| 5/6
Health Care | -0.8360| -1.1| 1/3
Consumer Staples | -4.2988| -0.5| 3/7
Utilities | -9.2527| -1.0| 1/14
Industrials | -18.3603| -0.6| 10/18
Energy | -25.2175| -0.6| 10/32
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 126.1000| 9.6| 51.8| 10.6
Constellation Software | 16.9000| 2.7| 38.9| 6.1
CIBC | 9.5270| 1.6| -40.7| 2.2
Canadian National | -7.7130| -1.3| -2.5| 3.7
Canadian Natural Resources | -11.0900| -1.7| -7.9| -1.4
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -12.6200| -1.7| -2.5| 9.6

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest technology companies climbed after a selloff that shook global markets, with traders gearing up for the start of the mega cap earnings season and the Federal Reserve decision on rates.
Equities rebounded, with the S&P 500 up about 1% and the Nasdaq 100 rising 1.6%.
Following a plunge that erased almost $600 billion in value, Nvidia Corp. rallied 8.8%.
Microsoft Corp. is in talks to acquire the US arm of ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok, according to President Donald Trump.
The software giant rose 2.9%.
While tech bounced back, most shares in the US equity benchmark actually fell — a reversion of the move in the previous session.
Still, a relative sense of calm prevailed after a rough start to the week on concern that a cheap artificial intelligence-model from Chinese startup DeepSeek could make valuations of the technology that has powered the bull market tough to justify.
“Was it a bit unnerving? Yes, for some. Should you panic? Not at all,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth.
“If you talk to anyone that bought stock yesterday, they loved the opportunity to buy some of these names at a deep discount. In the end, no matter how this plays out, competition is good. And remember, you get what you pay for.”
A key test for AI bulls will be the start of the big-tech reporting season on Wednesday.
While earnings from the so-called Magnificent Seven behemoths are still rising — and far outpacing the rest of the market — the group’s profit growth is projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years.
“The dust is now settling after Monday’s long overdue AI reckoning, and while we still believe in the AI-driven productivity story, investing in this sector going forward may not be as easy as it was over the past two years,” said Emily Bowersock Hill at Bowersock Capital Partners.
“We expect investors to be more discerning and selective when it comes to AI investing.”
As the Fed’s two-day meeting began, investors have accepted that officials probably won’t be cutting rates this time.
But they’re looking for any signal from Chair Jerome Powell on which way inflation is going.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 67% of respondents expect the reaction to the Fed Wednesday to be “mixed/negligible,” 21% said “risk-off” and 12% “risk-on.”
A gauge of the Magnificent Seven megacaps climbed 2.7%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%.
The Russell 2000 added 0.2%.
Boeing Co. rose 1.1% as its chief is optimistic the company can return to a key production target for its 737 airliner this year.
JetBlue Airways Corp. tumbled 28% after projecting higher costs this year than Wall Street expected.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.54%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%.
A punishing selloff in technology stocks on Monday spelled opportunity for dip-buyers prowling in the $11 trillion ETF arena.
As the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (ticker QQQ) sank nearly 3% on Monday, spooked by Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI progress, investors poured $4.3 billion into the tech-heavy fund — its biggest one-day haul since 2021.
The same impulse drove a record $1 billion into the GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL), and almost $1.3 billion into the Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares (SOXL), Bloomberg data show, despite double-digit plunges in both funds.
Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler noted that the fact that more stocks rose than fell during Monday’s selloff was a “a clear sign of strength beyond the AI sector as this market rally broadens out.”
At Wolfe Research, Chris Senyek said while the focus on DeepSeek rattled markets to start the week, the reaction was overblown in the short term.
“With that said, this news flow probably caps P/E multiples for data center driven industrials and power names to which AI enthusiasm had spread,” he said.
“This makes upcoming earnings season all that more important.”
Against a backdrop of healthy demand and stubborn inflation, officials are widely expected to hold borrowing costs steady.
At their December confab, policymakers signaled just two interest-rate cuts this year.
“Simply put, the strong US fundamental story of strong growth, elevated inflation, and a more hawkish Fed continues to favor higher US yields and a stronger dollar,” Win Thin at Brown Brothers Harriman, wrote in a note.
By some measures, this Fed meeting is expected to be relatively uneventful for the stock market.
Options traders are betting on modest swings in equities, with the S&P 500 forecast to move 0.8% in either direction on Wednesday, below the 1.1% average realized move on Fed days over the past 18 months, data compiled by Piper Sandler show.
“Markets are not expecting a cut and will focus on what the Fed projects for the rest of 2025,” said Bowersock Hill.
“Both inflation and interest rates are going to remain higher for longer – we would not be surprised to see one rate cut in 2025, or even none.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Uber Technologies Inc. is working on a new paid offering that would let commuters lock in prices for frequent rides ahead of time, rivaling a popular feature that Lyft Inc. launched five months ago.
* Starbucks Corp. is reorganizing its top ranks as part of Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol’s plan to win back customers by speeding up service and making cafes feel more upscale.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. reported a full-year profit forecast that blew past expectations as cruise demand continues to ramp up. It also announced its first foray into the river cruise market.
* Chevron Corp., investor Engine No. 1 and GE Vernova Inc. formed a partnership to develop natural gas-fired power plants next to data centers, aiming to tap into artificial intelligence’s surging demand for electricity.
* Defense company Lockheed Martin Corp.’s earnings per share forecast for 2025 fell short of the average analyst estimate.
* Aerospace and defense manufacturer RTX Corp. is “fully prepared” to support President Donald Trump’s ambitions to build an orbital missile defense system to protect the US.
* Kimberly-Clark Corp., the maker of Scott toilet paper and Huggies diapers, reported profit that missed expectations as its turnaround plan runs up against broader challenges.
* LVMH’s sales of fashion and leather goods declined in the fourth quarter, casting doubt on the prospects for a quick recovery in luxury demand.

Key events this week:
* US Fed rate decision, Wednesday
* Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ASML earnings, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone ECB rate decision, consumer confidence, unemployment, GDP, Thursday
* US GDP, jobless claims, Thursday
* Apple, Deutsche Bank earnings, Thursday
* US personal income & spending, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0431
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2441
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 155.51 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $101,308.68
* Ether fell 1.9% to $3,100.09

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.54%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.56%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.61%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $73.93 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,763.63 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Rheaa Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Robert Brand and Winnie Hsu.

Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The price of discipline is always less than the pain of regret. –Nido Qubein, b. 1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 27, 2025 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  It’s International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

January 27,1880 American inventor Thomas Edison receives a patent for the incandescent light bulb, revolutionizing modern lighting and industry. Go to article.
January 27, 1973: Vietnam Peace Agreement signed.

Wolfgang A. Mozart, composer, b. 1756.
Lewis Carroll, writer, b. 1832.
Mikhail Baryshnikov, dancer, b. 1948.

AI can now replicate itself — a milestone that has experts terrified
Scientists say AI has crossed a critical ‘red line’ after demonstrating how two popular large language models could clone themselves. Read More.

Scientists discover pristine ancient forest frozen in time in Rocky Mountains
A melting ice patch in the Rocky Mountains uncovered an ancient forest, and these trees have stories to tell about dynamic landscapes and climate change.

A 2025 guide to Lunar New Year
What is Lunar New Year? And why do people wear red as part of the celebrations? Learn answers to these questions and more as we slither into the Year of the Snake.

Photo Gallery: McDonald’s in more than 55 countries
An award-winning food photographer experienced firsthand how McDonald’s incorporates local flavors into its menu items. See photos here.

Photo Gallery: McDonald’s in more than 55 countries
An award-winning food photographer experienced firsthand how McDonald’s incorporates local flavors into its menu items. See photos here.

Do you dread the blaring sound of your alarm clock?
Health experts explain why your phone may not be the best alarm clock if you want a good night’s sleep. Read More.

Bad Dürrenberg headdress: An elaborate 9,000-year-old headpiece worn by a female shaman in Europe
A lavish 9,000-year-old grave in central Germany revealed the burial of a powerful female shaman. Read More.

Pamukkale: Turkey’s ‘cotton castle’ of white limestone that inspired an ancient cult
The Pamukkale travertines are limestone slopes and thermal water pools that have attracted visitors since before the days of Ancient Greece, when the spa town of Hierapolis was founded at the top. Read More.

Degree in hand, jobs out of reach
Read why recent college graduates are struggling in a competitive job market.

It was really the greatest moment. It felt as if I used every ounce of energy I had.  — Teenage snowboarder Hiroto Ogiwara, after making history at the X Games in Aspen by landing the first known 2340 in a competition — an impressive trick which consists of rotating six and a half times in the air. Watch the moment here.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Huanghan, China
Tourists visit Huangshan mountain as the spring festival approaches in Anhui province
Photograph: Shi Yalei/VCG/Getty Images

Kataragama, Sri Lanka
Devotees visit the Kiri Vehera Buddhist temple
Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

A swan also looks a bit perplexed at a frozen lake in Kidderminster, UK
Photograph: Lee Hudson/Alamy Live News
Market Closes for January 25, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
44713.58 +289.33
+0.65%
S&P 500  6012.28 -88.96
-1.46%
NASDAQ  19341.84 -612.46
-3.07%
TSX  25289.15 -179.34
-0.70%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  38982.33 -583.47
-1.47%
HANG
SENG
20197.77 +131.58
+0.66%
SENSEX  75366.17 -824.29
-1.08%
FTSE 100* 8503.71 +1.36
+0.02%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.200 3.278
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.353 3.421
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.5464 4.6214
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.7815 4.8453

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6948 0.6951
US
$
1.4392 1.4386

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.5037 0.6650
US
$
1.0449 0.9570

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2776.80 2776.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future  73.17 74.93

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 1999, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt warned the growing class of investors trading online to beware the dangers of fast and easy trading: “Investment should be for the long-run, not for minutes or hours.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.7% at 25,289.15 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Jan. 13 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 152 of 222 shares fell, while 69 rose.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 28.0%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.3%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.1% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 23.6% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.01t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.52% compared with 11.69% in the previous session and the average of 10.98% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -100.2476| -2.3| 4/39
Information Technology| -46.9861| -1.8| 1/9
Materials | -45.5682| -1.5| 1/49
Utilities | -11.5775| -1.2| 6/9
Financials | -10.6419| -0.1| 11/15
Consumer Staples | -2.9969| -0.3| 3/7
Health Care | 0.2299| 0.3| 3/1
Consumer Discretionary| 2.7703| 0.3| 7/4
Real Estate | 4.0735| 0.8| 17/2
Communication Services| 14.7582| 2.5| 4/1
Industrials | 16.8386| 0.5| 12/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Celestica | -39.9200| -28.0| 469.5| -5.2
Cameco | -36.8200| -15.0| 215.0| -7.6
TC Energy | -18.6100| -3.8| 1.0| -1.9
Canadian National | 7.6740| 1.3| -39.4| 5.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 9.5450| 1.3| 4.9| 11.4
Waste Connections | 10.4100| 2.3| -7.4| 5.9

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street had a rough start to the week on concern that a cheap artificial intelligence-model from Chinese startup DeepSeek could make valuations of the technology that has powered the bull market tough to justify.
From New York to London and Tokyo, equities got hammered.
While the slide came after a torrid rally to all-time highs, Monday’s selloff was triggered by a rise of DeepSeek’s latest AI model to the top of the Apple’s appstore.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% and the Nasdaq 100 sank 3%.
A closely watched gauge of chipmakers plunged the most since March 2020.
Nvidia Corp.’s 17% plunge erased $589 billion from its market capitalization — the largest in market history.
In a rush for safety, defensive industries like consumer staples and health care were bid.
Treasuries rallied, driving yields to the lowest levels this year.
Haven currencies including the yen and the Swiss franc climbed.
Energy firms expected to profit from unprecedented AI demand sank, led by a 21% beatdown for Constellation Energy Corp.
The crypto world got hit.
“What was shaping up to be a big week in the markets got even bigger with the disruption in the AI space,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“That could make this week’s mega cap tech earnings even more critical to market sentiment.”
Monday’s plunge drove new fissures into a market narrative that prevailed since the re-election of Donald Trump in November, the America-first, tech-fueled uber bullishness that saw a clear upward path for risky assets spurred by deregulation, tax cuts and even government sponsorship of AI investment.
Treasury yields slid sharply as haven-seeking investors laid aside concern – for today, anyway – that the new president’s policies will stoke inflation.
The severity of the selloff in US assets was proportionate to the weightings of AI-enabled firms in the biggest stock indexes.
Even after a recent paring to curb their influence the cohort of Nvidia, Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. account for about 40% of the Nasdaq 100.
It’s roughly 30% in the S&P 500, leaving both gauges significantly exposed to concerted drops in those names.
“The sudden, adverse market reaction to DeepSeek indicates that some of the key assumptions that have been driving the AI trade, and hence major indices, are getting reassessed today,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“Part of the today’s sudden adverse market reaction was a direct result of a ‘wave of complacency’ that overtook the equity market.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.7%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps slid 2.7%. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 9.15%.
The Russell 2000 slipped 1%. Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge — the VIX — soared the most since about mid-December.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.53%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%.
Bitcoin slid 2.9% to $101,481.84.
To Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management, valuations remain extended, and while vulnerabilities were expected this year, developments like DeepSeek highlight the need for diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven.
“I’m hoping this moment encourages everyone to look beyond tech stocks,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Not because the AI story is doomed, but because there are so many opportunities in unloved sectors that have been ignored for so long. The guts of the market’s foundation are still good, so it’s likely that the dip will be bought here.”
At G Squared Private Wealth, Victoria Greene says that she’s “not convinced the bubble has burst,” but would be “silly” not to evaluate the potential risks.
“We are looking carefully at how the market progresses from here and if action needs to be taken to protect and shift portfolio allocations,” she noted.
“We are not panickers, so tend to be buyers of big dislocations that are happening in tech, energy, and infrastructure today.”
Paul Marino at Themes ETFs, says he likes the fact that people are skeptical.
“Anything that goes straight up to the sky parabolic, that’s when I get worried as a long-term investor,” he said.
The next leg lower for the biggest US tech stocks may come from the retail crowd, according to Tony Pasquariello at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“Tactically speaking, I suspect the next few days bring a hurried reduction of length by the retail community,” Pasquariello wrote in a note to clients Monday, adding that hedge funds have been aggressively reducing exposure for months, so this is really about the response of households.
However, he’s a true believer in the structural supremacy of US tech companies, which “arguably have only more incentive to spend.”
“We don’t know whether this is the ‘Sputnik Moment’ for stocks, but this is certainly a wakeup call that we are not the only game in town,” said Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.
“To put these very high valuations in the stocks thinking they have cornered the market is a huge mistake and that is being re-rated.”
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., the idea that DeepSeek’s latest AI model is much more cost effective, and runs on much less-advanced chips, is raising some serious questions about what kind of earnings can be drawn from the AI phenomenon.
“If these companies look like they’re going to have a tough time maintaining their earnings growth (chip stocks) or a tough time reaching their earnings growth goals (the “picks and shovels” companies), it’s going to create some serious headwinds for today’s expensive stock market, he noted.
In fact, the slide in tech came at a time when the Nasdaq 100 is trading at 27 times estimated forward earnings, which is significantly above its 10-year average of 22.
Nvidia, which has led the way on AI technology, has a valuation multiple of 32.
All focus will be on earnings announcements from the likes of Microsoft and Apple this week to restore confidence in the so-called Magnificent Seven group of companies.
Investors are heading into yet another pivotal Big Tech earnings cycle with the companies’ shares near record highs and valuations stretched.
A key distinction this time: The group’s profit growth is projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years.
“This should be a fairly good earnings season, but the bar has been raised and they may not be able to live up to high expectations,” said Dan Taylor, chief investment officer at Man Numeric.
“It will be very difficult for the group to perform the way it did last year, especially as valuations have increased.”
“We think big tech can keep delivering on earnings, but misses could revive concerns that big capital spending on AI won’t pay off – one of three triggers to dial down our pro-risk view,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Jean Boivin and Wei Li.
Metrics like capex-to-sales ratios and free cash flows suggest that, for now, mega cap tech firms are not overextended, they said.
Overinvestment should be assessed in aggregate, in our view, given AI’s potential to unlock new revenue streams across the economy, they concluded.
So what exactly is DeepSeek?
DeepSeek was founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng, the chief of AI-driven quant hedge fund High-Flyer.
The company develops AI models that are open-source, meaning the developer community at large can inspect and improve the software.
Its mobile app surged to the top of the iPhone download charts in the US after its release in early January.
The app distinguishes itself from other chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT by articulating its reasoning before delivering a response to a prompt.
The company claims its R1 release offers performance on par with OpenAI’s latest and has granted license for individuals interested in developing chatbots using the technology to build on it.

Corporate Highlights:
* UBS Group AG has begun a wave of job cuts in its home market Switzerland, with hundreds of employees receiving notice in recent weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Estée Lauder Cos is reviewing its portfolio of beauty brands, people with knowledge of the matter said, as the cosmetics company transitions to new leadership and looks to boost its share price.
* AT&T Inc. posted fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street projections, including better-than-expected increases in mobile- phone customers and fiber-based internet subscribers, driven by seasonal promotions and bundled product offerings.
* Activist investor Ancora Holdings Group has nominated nine candidates for United States Steel Corp.’s board and is pushing for the company to abandon a takeover by Nippon Steel Corp.
* SoFi Technologies Inc., a fintech lender, published a forecast for profit that missed analysts’ estimates.
* MicroStrategy Inc. bought Bitcoin for a 12th consecutive week and unveiled details for the sale of perpetual preferred stock to help finance additional purchases of the cryptocurrency.

Key events this week:
* US consumer confidence, durable goods, Tuesday
* Fed rate decision followed by news conference by Chair Jerome Powell, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ASML earnings, Wednesday
* Eurozone ECB rate decision, consumer confidence, unemployment, GDP, Thursday
* US GDP, jobless claims, Thursday
* Apple, Deutsche Bank, Thursday
* ECB rate decision followed by news conference by President Christine Lagarde, Thursday
* US personal income & spending, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.7%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 9.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0488
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2491
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 154.59 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.9% to $101,481.84
* Ether fell 4.5% to $3,149

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.53%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.59%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $73.07 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.1% to $2,741.48 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Margaryta Kirakosian, Allegra Catelli and Catherine Bosley.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
What comes from the heart, goes to the heart. –Samuel Taylor Coleridge, 1772-1834.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 24, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

January 24, 1935: The first canned beer is sold by the Gottfried Krueger Brewing Company, revolutionizing the beverage industry and consumer convenience.
January 24, 2008: French bank Societe Generale announced it had uncovered a $7.14 billion fraud by a single futures trader.  Go to article

Edith Wharton, writer, b. 1862.
John Belushi, comic actor, b. 1949.

Nature’s hidden secrets are unveiled in photography competition
There were over 11,000 entries in the 2024 Close-up Photographer of the Year competition. These photos emerged victorious.

Now you can have Martha Stewart in your garden
After years of research, a highly fragrant pink and apricot flower named after the lifestyle doyenne has hit the market.

Novak Djokovic retires from Australian Open semifinal due to injury
Novak Djokovic’s quest for a record-extending 25th grand slam title has been cut short at the Australian Open. Read why he stunningly retired from his semifinal match.

Neanderthals’ blood type may help explain their demise, new study finds
Human populations that left Africa evolved quickly whereas Neanderthals stayed the same, according to an analysis of blood group systems. Read More.

More than 1,300 coins buried buried during Roman emperor Nero’s reign found in England
A hoard of 1,368 coins, most of them silver, was discovered in England. Why they were buried is a mystery.  Read More.

Potentially deadly ‘chirping waves’ detected in baffling location near Earth, and scientists are stumped
Chorus waves are mysterious, chirping signals produced by spiraling plasma inside our planet’s magnetic field. But a new detection suggests scientists may understand less
about them than first thought. Read More

‘Queen of icebergs’ A23a is barreling toward a remote South Atlantic island. Millions of animals could be at risk
Iceberg A23a is fast approaching the remote British island of South Georgia and the Sandwich islands. Read More.

PHOTOS  OF THE DAY

Ayrshire, Scotland
Waves and gale-force winds hit the coast next to Turnberry lighthouse
Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

North Tyneside, England
A man takes dogs for a walk on a windswept beach at Tynemouth Longsands
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

​​​​​​​A male northern cardinal puffs up his feathers against the cold at Colonel Samuel Smith Park on the shore of Lake Ontario in Toronto, Canada
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 24, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
44424.25 -140.82
-0.32%
S&P 500  6101.24 -17.47
-0.29%
NASDAQ  19954.30 -99.38
-0.50%
TSX  25468.49 +34.41
+0.14%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  39931.98 -26.89
-0.07%
HANG
SENG
20066.19 +365.63
+1.86%
SENSEX  76190.46 -329.92
-0.43%
FTSE 100* 8502.35 -62.85
-0.73%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.278 3.325
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.421 3.462
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.6214 4.6354
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.8453 4.8640

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6951 0.6957
US
$
1.4386 1.4374

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.5107 0.6619
US
$
1.0501 0.9523

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2776.80 2751.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future  74.93 74.93

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 1848, workers dredging a stream in Coloma, Calif., struck a bed of soft yellow rock. James Marshall, scooping up a dozen pure gold nuggets exclaims, “Boys, I’ve got ‘er now!” The California gold rush was on.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the ninth day, climbing 0.1%, or 34.41 to 25,468.49 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Dec. 11.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
Bird Construction Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.3%.
Today, 113 of 222 shares rose, while 104 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 3%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.6%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 22
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 24.4% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.01t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.69% compared with 11.83% in the previous session and the average of 10.93% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 28.7898| 0.3| 13/13
Materials | 26.3333| 0.9| 36/14
Information Technology | 22.8948| 0.9| 4/5
Consumer Discretionary | 6.3470| 0.8| 9/2
Communication Services | 2.3263| 0.4| 3/2
Real Estate | 1.3227| 0.3| 15/3
Health Care | 0.3439| 0.5| 1/2
Utilities | -0.3734| 0.0| 7/7
Consumer Staples | -6.7819| -0.7| 5/5
Industrials | -20.8686| -0.6| 11/17
Energy | -25.9233| -0.6| 9/34
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 20.1900| 2.4| 3.6| 6.0
Shopify | 15.3800| 1.2| 2.3| 1.0
Constellation Software | 9.6410| 1.5| 45.4| 4.2
Nutrien | -5.8060| -2.2| -50.0| 17.7
Suncor | -6.8680| -1.4| -39.4| 8.9
Canadian Natural Resources | -7.3910| -1.1| -57.1| 1.3
USA
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A relentless rally in stocks took a breather near all-time highs, but the market still notched its best start to a presidential term since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
While a rout in chipmakers weighed on trading Friday, the S&P 500 still climbed 1.7% this week.
That was after President Donald Trump talked up policies to boost the economy and lower taxes, while appearing to soften his stance toward tariffs on China — even as he continued to threaten sweeping action.
The dollar saw its biggest weekly drop since November 2023.
The MOVE Index of expected Treasury volatility hit the lowest since about mid-December.
“It is early days, but nothing that President Donald Trump has said or done has caused a bad reaction in financial markets,” said Chris Iggo at AXA Investment Managers.
“Quite the contrary. It is paying to stay invested.”
An important test to that risk-on mode will be next week’s start of the big-tech earnings season.
Investors are eager to see whether demand for artificial intelligence will live up to sky-high expectations.
The group was buoyed earlier in the week as SoftBank Group Corp., OpenAI, and Oracle Corp. formed a $100 billion joint venture to fund AI infrastructure, an effort unveiled with President Trump.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% Friday.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps dropped 0.4%.
The Russell 2000 retreated 0.3%.
Among corporate highlights, Meta Platforms Inc. climbed on plans to invest as much as $65 billion on AI projects in 2025.
Cryptocurrency-linked firms rallied following Trump’s executive order favoring the industry.
Nvidia Corp. led losses in big tech.
A disappointing forecast from Texas Instruments Inc. sent the shares down 7.5%.
In the run-up to next week’s Federal Reserve decision, bonds rose amid data showing a drop in US consumer sentiment and a slight pullback in the growth pace of business activity — though companies remained upbeat about the outlook.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.62%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%.
Oil saw its first weekly drop this year, with Trump calling for lower prices, which tends to ease concerns about inflation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said he’s ready to discuss energy issues with the US president.
To David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management, while US equities will likely be more volatile this year due to periodic concerns about the return on AI investment spending, tariffs and interest rates, any dip will likely be a buying opportunity.
“In our base case, we expect higher tariffs, but we don’t think they will rise to a level that alters the economic growth trajectory,” he noted.
Wall Street also waded through a slew of economic data on Friday, with the highlight being a drop in US consumer sentiment for the first time in six months.
Consumers expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.2% over the next five to 10 years.
They see costs rising 3.3% over the next year, the highest since May.
“Despite Wall Street’s recent concerns surrounding inflation, we’ve been able to lean on a fairly strong economy and labor market, while the stock market remains near all-time highs,” noted Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Similar findings from eToro’s quarterly retail investor survey also suggests a feeling of cautious optimism, as a majority of investors expect the bull market to continue in 2025.
However, there’s also a focus on raising cash and being underexposed to assets they expect to do well this year — like AI stocks, he said.
“We’re interpreting investors’ responses as optimistic, but viewing their actions as somewhat cautious, perhaps looking to buy the dip sometime this year. The survey also found that inflation was the top concern among retail investors,” Kenwell noted.
“Disappointment in the stickiness of near-term inflation is likely the main culprit for a dip in consumer sentiment,” said Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial.
“The Fed still has credibility as long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. Inflation data make it unlikely that the Fed will cut rates at the March meeting and the probability of a cut in May is a coin flip.”
After cutting rates three times in late 2024, Fed policymakers are expected to hold rates steady until they see inflation make more downward progress toward their 2% target.
Money markets and economists surveyed by Bloomberg are unanimous in expecting Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to keep the key benchmark rates in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% next week.
Looking further ahead, rate swaps now favor two quarter-point reductions by year-end, compared to just one such cut seen last week.
“Given our expectation for a somewhat uneventful Fed pause, we look for a modest Treasury market reaction unless Chair Powell surprises with a dovish press conference,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD securities.
“We remain long duration and expect the curve to steepen in 2025, but to remain flatter in the near-term.”
To James Egelhof at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., Powell will probably be asked about the tail risk of rate hikes at the press conference.
“We expect him to reply cautiously by indicating they are less likely, but could come into view if needed to secure a soft landing for inflation and growth,” the BNP chief US economist noted.
“The US economy doesn’t get in big trouble until profits fade,” said Don Rissmiller at Strategas.
“With US animal spirits around investment rising, productivity gains are plausible (though not guaranteed). Profits are generally a leading indicator for the economy, however, so we have time to see how this story develops. Stay tuned.”
As the earnings season rolls in, four of the so-called Magnificent Seven companies are expected to report slower quarterly sales next week with cautious consumer sentiment and the adverse effects of a stronger dollar seen as common themes.
While the outlook for Apple Inc. remains clouded by tepid demand for iPhones, investors expect sales momentum to pick up later this year for Tesla Inc. and Microsoft Corp.
“The breakout to record highs has been impressive, given that markets have been sluggish in six of the last seven earnings seasons, reinforcing the ‘buy the dip’ theme that has been a growing trend since the pandemic,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“If the market is able to sustain this breakout, a tailwind begins to develop as the buyback window reopens.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Tobacco stocks gained as a proposed ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars was withdrawn by the Trump administration.
* Verizon Communications Inc. reported fourth-quarter financial results that beat analysts’ estimates, including gains in new mobile-phone and broadband customers.
* American Express Co. profits increased 12% as well-heeled consumers spent more than analysts expected on their credit cards over the holidays, a tailwind the firm said it expects will continue.
* Texas Instruments Inc. gave a disappointing earnings forecast for the current period, hurt by still-sluggish demand and higher manufacturing costs.
* Boeing Co. suffered another quarter of fresh charges and losses, highlighting the long road ahead for Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg as he tries to stabilize the US aircraft manufacturer.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s experimental shot delivered as much as 22% weight loss in an early-stage trial, boosting investors’ hopes for the drugmaker’s pipeline.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0495
* The British pound rose 1.1% to $1.2487
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 155.91 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $105,023.51
* Ether rose 2.7% to $3,335.91
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.62%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,771.32 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Cecile Gutscher, Julien Ponthus, Robert Brand, Sujata Rao, Winnie Hsu and Jason Scott.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
In skating over thin ice, our safety is in our speed. –Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 23, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

January 23, 1957: Walter Frederick Morrison sells the rights to his flying disc to the Wham-O toy company, leading to the creation of the iconic Frisbee and transforming outdoor recreation.
In 1973, President Nixon announced an accord to end the Vietnam War.
January 23, 1991: Allied forces in the Persian Gulf War announced that they had achieved air superiority after some 12,000 sorties.  Go to article.

John Hancock, statesman, b. 1737.
Edouard Manet, artist, b. 1832.
Elizabeth Blackwell, first female MD, b.1849.

Scientists discover new, 3rd form of magnetism that may be the ‘missing link’ in the quest for superconductivity
Scientists have found an elusive third form of magnetism that could help solve a longstanding puzzle about superconductors. Read More.

Florida’s snowfall record smashed as historic storm blasts Gulf Coast
A historic winter snowstorm has reached the Gulf Coast, smothering the region in Arctic air and dropping record-breaking amounts of snow on northern Florida. Read More.

Hubble telescope spots ‘blue lurker’ star feeding off of its conjoined siblings
A rare breed of star recently discovered by the Hubble Space Telescope spins faster by feeding on its stellar siblings. Read More.

Boom Supersonic’s next-generation XB-1 passenger plane 1 step away from breaking the sound barrier
Boom Supersonic’s XB-1 demonstrator craft could become the first commercial jet to break the sound barrier since Concorde after acing its 11th test. Read More.

Why some Instagram users aren’t able to unfollow Trump and JD Vance
Some social media users, including celebrities, are posting complaints that Meta won’t let them unfollow President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and first lady Melania Trump on Instagram. Here’s what we know.

There’s a steep fee to climb Mount Everest
Nepal will increase the permit fees for climbing Mount Everest by more than 35% to $15,000, making the world’s tallest peak more expensive for mountaineers for the first time in nearly a decade.

Trash or treasure?
A marble statue believed to be more than 2,000 years old was found abandoned in a garbage bag near the Greek city of Thessaloniki, police said.

Feeling bored has a purpose. Here are 5 things to know about boredom
Many try to avoid boredom, but it serves a purpose. A neuroscientist explains why people get bored and how to turn boredom into motivation.

This animal is bouncing back from the brink of extinction
Animal conservationists in Australia have launched an initiative to bring back miniature kangaroo lookalikes.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Seoul, South Korea
A customer reads one of the more than 30,000 books crammed into a second-hand store in an underground shopping centre
Photograph: Daniel Ceng/Anadolu/Getty Images

London, UK
A visitor examines an installation at Somerset House’s new exhibition SOIL: The World at Our Feet
Photograph: Guy Bell/Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​West Sumatra, Indonesia
Visitors to the Palupuah forest inspect a spectacular Rafflesia arnoldii, the world’s largest flower
Photograph: Adi Prima/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 23, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
44565.07 +408.34
+0.92%
S&P 500  6118.71 +32.34
+0.53%
NASDAQ  20053.68 +44.34
+0.22%
TSX  25434.08 +122.58
+0.48%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  40100.79 +141.92
+0.36%
HANG
SENG
19700.56 -78.21
-0.40%
SENSEX  76520.38 +115.39
+0.15%
FTSE 100* 8565.20 +20.07
+0.23%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.325 3.305
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.462 3.437
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.6354 4.6028
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.8640 4.8194

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6957 0.6949
US
$
1.4374 1.4391

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.4977 0.6677
US
$
1.0420 0.9597

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2751.80 2737.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future  74.93 75.71

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 2002, Kenneth Lay resigned as chairman and chief executive of Enron. His departure came a little over a month after the energy-trading powerhouse filed for bankruptcy—then the biggest in U.S. history.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the eighth day, climbing 0.5%, or 122.58 to 25,434.08 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Dec. 11.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 127 of 222 shares rose, while 89 fell.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.8%.
Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 8.8%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.9%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.5%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 22
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 24.3% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.99t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.83% compared with 11.81% in the previous session and the average of 10.87% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 45.5261| 0.6| 22/4
Industrials | 36.1178| 1.1| 21/6
Consumer Discretionary | 11.2620| 1.4| 9/2
Consumer Staples | 10.3393| 1.1| 8/2
Utilities | 9.8746| 1.1| 12/2
Information Technology | 5.9609| 0.2| 5/5
Materials | 5.3846| 0.2| 23/25
Communication Services | 0.9476| 0.2| 4/1
Health Care | 0.1621| 0.2| 2/1
Real Estate | -0.4249| -0.1| 9/11
Energy | -2.5852| -0.1| 12/30
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 14.5700| 0.8| 90.9| 1.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 14.4500| 2.0| -24.0| 10.5
Canadian National | 9.8060| 1.7| 10.2| 4.6
ARC Resources | -1.6190| -1.5| -29.3| 1.3
Shopify | -3.1430| -0.2| -32.5| -0.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -3.1610| -0.7| -4.8| 13.4

USA
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at all-time highs as oil fell after President Donald Trump urged OPEC to lower crude prices and said he will push for interest-rate cuts.
A drop in oil, which tends to ease concerns about inflation, pushed the policy-sensitive two-year yield down.
About 320 shares in the S&P 500 rose, with the gauge topping the 6,100 milestone.
Tech shares, which weighed heavily on the market throughout most of the session, rebounded in the final stretch of Wall Street trading.
Trump said he signed executive actions related to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies.
Traders eagerly anticipating fresh insights into Trump’s trade policies, got a more moderate tone regarding tariffs, which helped “soothe investor nerves,” according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“Trump, rightly or wrongly, wants to see a positive supply shock in the energy sector,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“That in turn will bring down inflation expectations, which in turn, will bring down rates.”
The S&P 500 added 0.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.9%.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” gained 0.2%.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.4%.
The Russell 2000 added 0.5%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.2%.
The yen climbed, with the Bank of Japan expected to raise its benchmark rate Friday by the most in 18 years.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.65%.
“If Trump can enact pro-growth measures while inflationary pressures abate, a rotation into cyclicals, smaller-cap names, and non-US assets is likely to materialize,” said Hal Reynolds at Los Angeles Capital Management.
However, given the heightened levels of policy risk, the firm’s “Dynamic Alpha Stock Selection Model” continues to slightly prefer larger cap companies across the globe whose strong returns can be justified by their fundamentals.
To James Demmert at Main Street Research, the stock market is in a “calm before the storm mode” ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision press conference and the start of the big-tech earnings season — “both of which are likely to cause market volatility.”
Demmert sees any further consolidation or correction in stocks as an opportunity for investors.
“We are still early in the AI and technology-led business cycle and bull market, which is now roughly two years old, and may last for another five years,” he noted.
The S&P 500’s recent leg higher missed an important ingredient: inflows from big-money managers.
For those betting on a further rally, that’s a welcome development.
A measure of aggregate positioning among rules-based and discretionary investors fell to a two-month low, according to Deutsche Bank AG’s data.
And commodity trading advisors cut their long stock exposure to the level last seen in the aftermath of a market rout in August, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk show.
From a contrarian perspective, such skepticism bodes well for stock-market bulls because it means more dry powder to buy equities down the road, should the biggest fears fail to materialize.
“We continue to expect near-term volatility,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“But we also believe US equities have room to grind higher as growth momentum continues.”

Corporate Highlights:
* American Airlines Group Inc. warned of a surprise loss to start the year as it tries to win back business travelers and battle high costs, disappointing investors following a string of bullish forecasts from other large carriers.
* Alaska Air Group Inc. beat Wall Street’s estimates to close out 2024 and forecast a better-than-expected start to the new year, giving the carrier a boost as it plans a significant overseas expansion.
* Electronic Arts Inc. warned its financial results would be weaker than expected due to poor sales results of two titles released over the holidays.
* General Electric Co. exceeded Wall Street expectations for profit and sales in the final months of the year as the jet engine maker worked through supply-chain limitations and capitalized on a strong maintenance backlog.
* Union Pacific Corp.’s quarterly earnings topped Wall Street estimates, and the railroad said it’s 2025 outlook remains the same despite a mixed economic forecast.
* Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s sales projections missed analyst estimates, countering the impact of better-than-expected results last quarter.
* Elevance Health Inc.’s medical costs were lower than expected in the fourth quarter, relieving investor anxiety and helping the insurer meet profit expectations.
* ByteDance is exploring a deal to keep TikTok running in the US without selling its operations there, according to board member Bill Ford.

Key events this week:
* Bank of Japan policy meeting, Friday
* Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, existing home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0418
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2354
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 156.00 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $102,897.7
* Ether fell 0.6% to $3,237.47

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.65%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.55%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $74.25 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,753.69 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand, Julien Ponthus, Divya Patil, Catherine Bosley and Rob Verdonck.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
Procrastination makes easy things hard, hard things harder. –Mason Cooley, 1927-2002.

Carolann

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 22, 2025 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
January 22, 1970 The Boeing 747 went on its first regularly scheduled commercial flight, from New York to London. Go to article.
1973: Roe vs Wade decision.
January 22, 1984: The apple Macintosh, the first mass-market personal computer with a revolutionary graphical user interface, was introduced during Super Bowl XVIII.

Franci Bacon, statesman, b. 1561.
Lord Byron, poet, b. 1788.

China’s ‘artificial sun’ shatters nuclear fusion record by generating steady loop of plasma for 1,000 seconds
A nuclear fusion reactor in China, dubbed the “artificial sun,” has broken its own record to bring humanity one step closer to near-limitless clean energy. Read More.

Archaeologists discover rare liquid gypsum burial of ‘high-status individual’ from Roman Britain
A Roman-era cemetery, found ahead of a construction project in England, holds an unusual burial at its center. Read More.

‘Herculean’ 2.5-billion-pixel mosaic shows our closest galactic neighbor like never before — and took more than a decade to create
The new composite image, which combines hundreds of photos from the Hubble Space Telescope, shows the Andromeda Galaxy with more than 200 million individually resolved stars. Read More.

World’s fastest supercomputer ‘El Capitan’ goes online — it will be used to secure the US nuclear stockpile and in other classified research
The world’s fastest supercomputer “El Capitan” can reach a peak performance of 2.746 exaFLOPS, making it the planet’s third exascale computer. Read More.

Cosmic voids may explain the universe’s acceleration without dark energy
New research suggests that dark energy isn’t needed to explain the acceleration in the expansion of the universe — instead suggesting giant voids in space are creating an illusion. Read More.

A major investment in artificial intelligence
Three top tech firms announced that they will create a new company, called Stargate, to grow AI infrastructure in the US.

Sparkling water and weight loss
Carbonated drinks known as sparkling, fizzy, seltzer and soda waters are thought to impact the waistline. Health experts weigh in.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Frankfurt, Germany
Commuters drive through a frozen forest toward the fog-shrouded city
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Rotterdam, Netherlands
Sunlight breaks through the mist over a waterway in the Dutch city where heavy fog has caused road accidents and flight cancellations
Photograph: Mouneb Taim/Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​New Orleans, US
Two friends take advantage of a rare fall of snow in City Park. The Louisiana city had not had any snow since 2009 and this week’s 10in broke the record of 2.7in set in 1963
Photograph: Michael DeMocker/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 22, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
44156.73 +130.92
+0.30%
S&P 500  6086.37 +37.13
+0.61%
NASDAQ  20009.34 +252.56
+1.28%
TSX  25311.50 +29.87
+0.12%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  39889.59 +243.34
+0.61%
HANG
SENG
19778.77 -327.78
-1.63%
SENSEX  76404.99 +566.63
+0.75%
FTSE 100* 8545.13 -327.78
-0.04%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.305 3.265
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.437 3.392
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.6028 4.5906
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.8194 4.8184

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6949 0.6976
US
$
1.4391 1.4334

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.4980 0.6675
US
$
1.0410 0.9606

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2737.80 2707.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future  75.71 75.89

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 2008, as the subprime crisis gathered steam, the Federal Reserve surprised markets with the deepest cut in interest rates in more than two decades.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the seventh day, climbing 0.1%, or 29.87 to 25,311.50 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Dec. 12.
Today, industrials stocks led the market higher, as 6 of 11 sectors gained; 122 of 222 shares rose, while 97 fell.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.6%.
AtkinsRealis Group Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.2%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.4%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.1% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 23.7% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.1% in the past 5 days and rose 2.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.98t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 11.81% compared with 11.81% in the previous session and the average of 10.83% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | 40.9487| 1.3| 22/6
Information Technology | 24.9521| 1.0| 10/0
Consumer Staples | 7.0684| 0.7| 10/0
Health Care | 0.5996| 0.8| 2/2
Communication Services | 0.4208| 0.1| 2/3
Real Estate | 0.1170| 0.0| 4/16
Energy | -0.9581| 0.0| 26/15
Materials | -1.3372| 0.0| 26/23
Consumer Discretionary | -1.5675| -0.2| 5/6
Utilities | -10.7027| -1.1| 1/14
Financials | -29.6701| -0.4| 14/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Cameco | 13.0500| 5.6| 36.5| 9.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 9.4140| 1.3| -0.3| 8.4
Constellation Software | 8.1570| 1.3| -21.9| 1.2
Enbridge | -9.3060| -0.9| 70.5| 5.6
Brookfield Corp | -10.4500| -1.2| -32.3| 2.6
RBC | -13.7800| -0.8| 88.6| 0.5

USA
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in big tech fueled by optimism over artificial intelligence and a batch of earnings from corporate heavyweights sent stocks to the brink of their record highs.
Equities extended this year’s advance, with the S&P 500 briefly topping 6,100.
Netflix Inc. surged 9.7% amid its biggest-ever subscriber gain.
Nvidia Corp. led gains in mega caps while Oracle Corp. soared 6.7% on a $100 billion joint venture with SoftBank Group Corp. and OpenAI, an effort unveiled with President Donald Trump that further boosts prospects for the AI mania that has powered the bull market.
“We stay risk-on and expect earnings to fuel equities,” said BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Jean Boivin and Wei Li.
“Even in a higher-rate environment, we still think stocks can keep pushing higher as long as fundamentals stay strong.”
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, if this earnings season is a good one, it’s a rally that could have legs.
However, it will take more than merely “beating expectations” to fuel a further advance of significance.
Despite a recent broadening attempt of the market beyond a handful of mega caps, tech led the way on Wednesday — and most companies in the S&P 500 actually fell.
Poor breadth has been a major concern of investors, especially among those nervous about sky-high valuations and frothy AI stocks.
JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s chief Jamie Dimon told CNBC there are signs that the stock market is overheated, with asset prices “kind of inflated.”
Meantime, Cathie Wood, the founder of ARK Investment Management, told Bloomberg’s ETF IQ that Trump’s regulatory and growth agenda will revive the market for US initial public offerings.
The S&P 500 rose 0.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps gained 1.3%.
The Russell 2000 fell 0.6%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.6%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index wavered.
“Markets are reacting positively to the initial wave of Trump policies, with investors showing enthusiasm reminiscent of the run-up to the election as they breathe a sigh of relief over the tariff announcements and the early stages of earnings season,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
Hackett also noted  hat while the bar for earnings is high, the market is showing impressive resilience.
“A breakout to a fresh record high would energize the bulls, as earnings seasons have been choppy in recent quarters,” he concluded.
After the S&P 500 soared 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, lofty valuations brought some discussion on whether the benchmark will be able to achieve such a performance again this year.
Back-to-back annual gains of over 20% for the S&P 500 do not necessarily make US equities due for a pullback, as history shows the market has typically continued to deliver solid, albeit more muted, returns in the following year,” said Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments.
“Further, the current rally is far from the longest without a correction.”
Schulze also noted that earnings growth has largely been concentrated amongst a small group of stocks in recent years.
This is expected to shift in 2025 with a broadening of earnings participation, which should lead to improved relative performance for small/mid cap and value laggards.
“While we continue to watch the new administration’s next moves closely, investor should not lose sight of the fundamentals that remain favorable for US equities,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Without taking any single-name views, we continue to like technology, utilities, and financials, and see value in utilizing structured strategies to navigate near-term volatility.”
The stock market’s “January effect” is taking shape so far, with stocks performing strongly throughout the month, according to John Creekmur at Creekmur Wealth Advisors.
“Investors are now more focused on earnings and hopes for tax cuts and deregulation from the new Trump administration, and less so about worries of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts this year,” he noted.
The Nasdaq 100 has nearly doubled since the start of 2023, adding $14 trillion in value in the process.
Evercore ISI’s Rich Ross is prepared for that rally to continue, shrugging off fears of a familiar nemesis: bond yields.
Treasury rates jumped to multi-month highs last week as investors parsed economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut.
The yield on the US 10-year has since pulled back after hitting a relative strength reading that usually signals a retreat.
Pair that with positive technical signals and the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Index both appear poised to hit fresh all-time highs in the first quarter, according to Ross.
“At the end of the day technology remains in an outstanding position to continue to lead this market higher,” Ross said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Netflix Inc. reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.
* Salesforce Inc. Chief Executive Officer Marc Benioff said there will be “thousands” of deals for its new Agentforce AI product in the current fiscal quarter.
* Samsung Electronics Co. plans to launch an ultrathin version of its Galaxy S25 phone in the first half of this year, beating Apple Inc. to a promising new category.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google won a UK court ruling to block Russian media firms from seizing the tech giant’s global assets to recover Russian court-imposed fines that have now accrued interest equal to many times more than the world’s economy combined.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. expects a solidly profitable first quarter as the carrier capitalizes on strong demand during the winter months, a surprising shift from a normally sluggish travel period.
* Procter & Gamble Co. organic sales surpassed estimates on higher volume, a change from earlier quarters where most of the company’s growth came from price hikes.
* Johnson & Johnson warned Wall Street about the perils of the strong dollar. Now the drug and device maker is saying analysts failed to hear the message.
* Abbott Laboratories is forecasting lower-than-expected first- quarter earnings but full-year profit in line with Wall Street estimates as the health care company points to strong demand for its medical devices as a growth driver this year.
* Ally Financial Inc. fourth-quarter earnings surged as its net interest margin beat analysts’ estimates and expenses and provisions for bad debt declined.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* US jobless claims, Thursday
* Bank of Japan policy meeting, Friday
* Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, existing home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0412
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2317
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 156.54 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $104,337.28
* Ether fell 2.3% to $3,255.98

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.60%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.63%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $75.43 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,756.78 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Sujata Rao, Robert Brand and Aya Wagatsuma.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Often man is preoccupied with human rules and forgets the inner law. -Antoine the Healer, 1846-1912.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 21, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: St. Agnes Day.

January 21, 1793: The Execution of Louis XVI, King of France, marks a pivotal moment in the French Revolution and symbolizes the end of absolute monarchy in France.
January 21, 1976: The supersonic Concorde jet was put into service by Britain and France. Go to article

1915: Kiwanis International founded.

Ethan Allen, Revolutionary War Hero, b. 1738.
Roger Nash Baldwin, founder ACLU, b. 1884.
Chrisitan Dio, designer, b. 1905.
Geena Davis, actor, b. 1956

Ozempic-style drugs tied to more than 60 health benefits and risks in biggest study-of-its-kind
A large new study has shed light on the wider health impacts of taking Ozempic-style drugs. Read More.

Giant reserves of ‘gold’ hydrogen may be lurking beneath at least 30 US states, 1st-of-its-kind map reveals
USGS researchers have unveiled the first map of prospective locations for hydrogen gas in the contiguous United States — and there’s a lot more than they previously thought. Read More.

‘Our model of cosmology might be broken’: New study reveals the universe is expanding too fast for physics to explain
Astronomers have been confounded by recent evidence that the universe expanded at different rates throughout its life. New findings risk turning the tension into a crisis, scientists say. Read More.

Coco Gauff stunned by Paula Badosa at the Australian Open
The American tennis star was knocked out of the Australian Open after Paula Badosa of Spain served up some serious competition.

Ring camera footage shows meteorite strike near a Canadian home
This Ring camera footage shows a small meteorite crash near a home in Prince Edward Island, Canada.

Archaeologists find lavish thermal spa in Pompeii
An intricate thermal spa complex was uncovered in a recent dig in the ancient Roman city of Pompeii. See photos here.

Champagne sales sink because people don’t want to celebrate
The number of Champagne shipments from France sank by almost 10% last year to 271 million bottles, marking the second consecutive year of declines.   More

Figure of the day: 25%, the share of the global population living in cities of over a million people, up from 15% six decades ago.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Quang Phu Cau, Vietnam
A worker arranges sets incense sticks out to dry in a courtyard on the outskirts of Hanoi ahead of lunar new year celebrations
Photograph: Nhac Nguyen/AFP/Getty Images

Spišská Nová Ves, Slovakia
A woman and her two children explore the Siklava Skala icefall
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Pelicans rest on a rock in the lake in St James’s Park, London, during last week’s cold snap across the UK. The lake would have been frozen over if not for the fountain. Six great white pelicans live in the park and are free to come and go as they please
Photograph: Vuk Valcic/Sopa Images/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for January 21, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
44025.81 +537.98
+1.24%
S&P 500  6049.24 +52.58
+0.88%
NASDAQ  19756.78 +126.58
+0.64%
TSX  25281.63 +110.06
+0.44%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  39499.58 +471.60
+1.21%
HANG
SENG
20106.55 +180.74
+0.91%
SENSEX  75838.36 -1235.08
-1.60%
FTSE 100* 8548.29 +27.75
+0.33%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.265 3.278
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.392 3.402
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.5906 N.A
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.8184 N.A

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6976 0.6991
US
$
1.4334 1.4304

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.4931 0.6697
US
$
1.0416 0.9600

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2707.70 2707.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future  75.89 77.88

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1993, just over a year after breaking the 600 mark, the Nasdaq Composite broke the 700 barrier, finishing the day at 700.77.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the sixth day, climbing 0.4%, or 110.06 to 25,281.63 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Dec. 12.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.0%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 4.7%.
Today, 109 of 222 shares rose, while 111 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.2%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.2% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 23.5% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.8% in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.81% compared with 11.72% in the previous session and the average of 10.77% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 61.5923| 0.7| 19/7
Information Technology | 44.6407| 1.8| 10/0
Industrials | 14.6785| 0.5| 16/11
Consumer Discretionary | 7.6239| 0.9| 7/4
Utilities | 4.0208| 0.4| 6/9
Materials | 2.9287| 0.1| 24/26
Real Estate | -0.2862| -0.1| 7/13
Health Care | -0.4686| -0.6| 1/3
Communication Services | -3.2215| -0.6| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -3.3707| -0.4| 7/3
Energy | -18.0689| -0.4| 11/31
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 24.7200| 2.0| -11.8| -0.4
Brookfield Corp | 23.9100| 2.9| -26.6| 3.8
RBC | 16.9500| 1.0| 118.2| 1.3
Cenovus | -6.1790| -3.1| -11.2| -1.3
TC Energy | -8.0690| -1.6| -32.3| 1.6
Canadian Natural Resources | -19.5100| -2.8| 10.0| 2.9

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed as President Donald Trump struck a better-than-feared tone on global trade and speculation grew that his policies will further boost Corporate America.
Bonds continued to unwind the recent surge in yields that roiled markets.
The dollar wavered.
Over 400 shares in the S&P 500 rose, with the gauge up almost 1% as Trump is expected to announce a new investment push for artificial intelligence led by Softbank Group Corp., OpenAI LLC, and Oracle Corp.
A closely watched exchange-traded fund tracking companies with AI exposure hit a three-year high.
Small caps climbed on bets they will benefit from a protectionist stance.
Trump’s flurry of executive orders helped boost space shares, while weighing on electric-vehicle makers.
An ETF focused on big Chinese firms gained as the US president so far refrained from announcing tariffs on the Asian nation.
Treasury yields hovered near their lowest levels of the year.
Mexico’s peso and Canada’s loonie got hit as Trump outlined levies he expects to place on both countries by Feb. 1.
“Risky assets should benefit from deregulation and tariffs emerging as not so bad as feared,” said Mohit Kumar at Jefferies International Ltd. “For rates, less onerous tariffs and likely lower oil prices should be a positive.”
Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says it’s time to see what speculation was “founded” and what was “just nonsense” when it comes to tariffs.
Meantime, she noted that Trump faces a crucial test on another front.
“We’ll start seeing more headlines around debt-ceiling talks, and possibly, more stress on the shorter end of the Treasury curve,” she said.
The debt ceiling is frequently used for leverage amid budget negotiations in Congress, with agreements often made at the last minute.
As a result, the standoffs typically ripple through short-term interest rates as investors dump Treasury bills most vulnerable to a potential default in favor of other securities.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2%.
The Russell 2000 of small caps rallied 1.8%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps added 0.3%.
In late hours, Netflix Inc. soared after reporting its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. issued a bullish outlook.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.56%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
“Last week, the equity markets experienced a broad rally, supported by cooler inflation data, upbeat earnings from banks, and a recovery from short-term oversold conditions and negative sentiment,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“We expect further upside in equities, supported by the return of Trump’s ‘business and investor-friendly’ policies. The “presidential scorecard” of stock-market performance is resetting this Tuesday, with Trump beginning his day in the White House for the first time in four years.
For Joe Biden’s entire presidency, the Dow Jones Industrial average rallied 39.4% — about 18 percentage points less than the four years under his Trump’s first administration — and over 100 percentage points less than the 149.4% during the eight years of the Obama era, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group.
“While the Dow’s performance under Biden was the weakest of the last three presidents, it was still nothing to sneeze at, and it caps off a third straight period of strong gains under a presidential term,” Bespoke said. “Let these performance numbers serve as a reminder that as an investor you should never let your politics and investment decisions overlap.”
Since 1944, from the election through the inauguration day, the S&P 500 gained an average 1.6%, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA.
During the subsequent “First 100 (calendar) Days”, the S&P 500 gained an average of 2.1%, he noted.
“What’s more, the performances of S&P 500 sectors and sub-industries during the ‘Post-Election Honeymoon Period’ have been predictive of sector and sub-industry leadership for the entire year,” Stovall added.
Since 1993, the top four sectors from election day through inauguration day posted an average calendar-year increase of 17% versus the S&P 500’s average 15.9% rise and outperformed the broad benchmark 75% of the time, Stovall said.
Even better, the top-10 S&P 500 sub-industries posted an average calendar-year increase of 26.8% and also beat the market 75% of the time, he concluded.
This time around, there are early signs that investors are preparing for equity laggards to rally on bets that Trump could take a softer-than-feared stance on global trade, according to a survey by Bank of America Corp.
If concerns around Trump’s tariff proposals prove to be “unfounded,” investor allocations would remain risk-on and stock markets that have trailed the powerful rally in the US would play catch up, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett said.
In what could be a different macro/market regime in 2025, with a moderate pick-up in economic growth, we want to look for other equity markets that have reversion potential and have positive earnings revisions, according to Emily Roland and Matt Miskin at John Hancock Investment Management.
“US large-cap value (financials heavy) and US mid-caps (industrials heavy) are the two best options across globally equities that offer reversion potential and improving earnings trends,” they noted.
“Non-US equities and US small-caps could get a boost simply from the rotation trends, but fundamentally not as strong.”
Roland and Miskin also added that investors don’t have to go far to benefit from the potential deconcentrating of the S&P 500 from the top 10 mostly technology-driven growth stocks.
“Simply a value tilt or moving down in cap a bit, may give them plenty of fundamentally favorable opportunities,” they concluded.
“Our base case for the US economy is for ‘growth despite tariffs’,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“While we will be closely monitoring for risks, we do not believe that the tariff measures outlined in our base case would be sufficient to derail US growth.
Nor do we believe that such tariffs would preclude inflation continuing to fall from current levels, enabling the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50bps later this year.”
The latest dovish inflation readings are “game-changers,” and should provide a Goldilocks backdrop for risk assets over the coming months, HSBC says.
The bank’s strategists led by Max Kettner expect only very shallow drawdowns in the coming months and would use any dips to boost risk asset exposure.
They say sentiment and positioning are still flashing a buy signal.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, while many of the headlines related to Trump’s policies could have an important impact on the markets, earnings season — and forward guidance — should be extremely important as well.
“With the market as expensive as it is today, there are some concerns about whether the positive aspects of these new policies may have already been priced into the stock market,” Maley said.
“So, it’s going to be particularly important that the overall earnings picture does not begin to deteriorate in any meaningful manner.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. received a pair of analyst downgrades, in the latest sign that soft iPhone sales are becoming an increasing concern for investors, as artificial intelligence fails to act as a hoped-for growth catalyst.
* Charles Schwab Corp. reported results that exceeded Wall Street estimates as it continues to attract record inflows to its retail brokerage.
* 3M Co. expects profit to grow this year as Chief Executive Officer William Brown works to advance his plan to turn around the sprawling manufacturer.
* D.R. Horton Inc. reported earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* MicroStrategy Inc. shareholders voted for a 30 times increase to the number of authorized Class A common shares to help finance the company’s Bitcoin buying.
* B. Riley Financial Inc. suspended dividends on a pair of its preferred shares, holding off on cash payments to some investors while it prepares to pay off another set of notes coming due next month.
* Adidas AG reported better-than-expected results amid the sustained boom for retro sneakers like the Samba and more sales from its shrinking stockpile of Yeezy footwear.

Key events this week:
* US Conference Board leading index, Wednesday
* Samsung Galaxy “Unpacked 2025” event, expected to reveal new flagship phone models, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* US jobless claims, Thursday
* Bank of Japan policy meeting, Friday
* Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, existing home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0420
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2339
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 155.52 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.5% to $106,109.48
* Ether rose 0.9% to $3,311.52

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.56%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.59%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.6% to $75.89 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,742.72 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Margaryta Kirakosian, Chiranjivi Chakraborty, Julien Ponthus and Aya Wagatsuma.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it. -George Orwell, 1903-1950.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 20, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday!
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day

January 20, 1503: Casa de Contratación (House of Trade) established by the Crown of Castile in the port of Seville to deal with American affairs
January 20, 1869: Elizabeth Cady Stanton becomes 1st woman to testify before US Congress
January 20, 1937: 1st US Presidential Inauguration day held on Jan 20th, (previously March 4th)
January 20, 1981: Iran released 52 Americans held hostage for 444 days, minutes after the presidency had passed from Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan. Go to article

An interstellar visitor may have changed the course of 4 solar system planets, study suggests
An object eight times the mass of Jupiter may have swooped around the sun, coming superclose to Mars’ present-day orbit before shoving four of the solar system’s planets onto a different course.

Giant ice age landforms discovered deep beneath North Sea revealed in amazing detail
New images from the North Sea show never-before-seen landforms that were carved by a single, colossal ice sheet 1 million years ago and subsequently buried beneath a thick layer of mud

‘ELIZA,’ the world’s 1st chatbot, was just resurrected from 60-year-old computer code
Researchers discovered long-lost computer code and used it to resurrect the early chatbot ELIZA.

Cell phone captures underwater surprise
A tourist visiting Tulum, Mexico, accidentally dropped her phone into one of the region’s popular cenotes. What her phone’s camera captured next turned out to be a viral hit.

Roman emperor quiz: Test your knowledge on the rulers of the ancient empire
The Roman emperors were once the most famous people in the world, ruling over an empire that stretched between what are now Spain and the Middle East. But just how much do you know about these characters? Take our quiz to find out.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nansha, China
Colourful lantern displays are illuminated for the 2025 Greater Bay Area lantern festival
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Tokyo, Japan
An immersive digital artwork at the teamLab Planets Tokyo museum
Photograph: Franck Robichon/EPA

​​​​​​​Wengen, Switzerland
Ryan Cochran-Siegle of the US in action during the men’s downhill race at the FIS Alpine Skiing World Cup
Photograph: Jean-Christophe Bott/EPA
Market Closes for January 20, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
Market closed N.A.
S&P 500  Market closed N.A.
NASDAQ  Market closed N.A.
TSX  25171.58 +103.66
+0.41%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  38902.50 +451.04
+1.17%
HANG
SENG
19925.81 +341.75
+1.75%
SENSEX  77073.44 +454.11
+0.59%
FTSE 100* 8520.54 +15.32
+0.18%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.278 3.297
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.402 3.420
U.S.
10 Year Bond
N.A 4.6270
U.S.
30 Year Bond
N.A 4.8567

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6991 0.6912
US
$
1.4304 1.4468

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.4908 0.6708
US
$
1.0422 0.9595

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2707.70 2715.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future  77.88 77.88

Market Commentary:

📈

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.4%, or 103.66 to 25,171.58 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Dec. 13.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.4%.
Bombardier Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.2%.
Today, 165 of 222 shares rose, while 54 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.8%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.6% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 23% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.95t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.72% compared with 11.65% in the previous session and the average of 10.70% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 54.4690| 1.2| 35/7
Materials | 35.0308| 1.2| 43/7
Industrials | 23.8103| 0.8| 22/6
Consumer Discretionary | 4.1810| 0.5| 10/1
Communication Services | 3.5787| 0.6| 4/1
Real Estate | 2.2872| 0.5| 16/4
Health Care | 0.5955| 0.8| 3/0
Consumer Staples | -0.7035| -0.1| 5/5
Utilities | -1.1864| -0.1| 6/8
Information Technology | -3.9781| -0.2| 5/5
Financials | -14.4171| -0.2| 16/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 28.9700| 4.4| -45.1| 5.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 11.1800| 1.6| -50.0| 5.7
Suncor | 6.3400| 1.3| -79.6| 11.4
Enbridge | -6.8650| -0.7| -74.9| 4.8
Brookfield Corp | -7.1320| -0.8| -78.9| 1.0
TD Bank | -9.4290| -0.9| -81.4| 7.6
US
US stock market closed for federal holiday honoring Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” No object is mysterious. The mystery is your eye.”– Elizabeth Bowen

Shab Mohammadpour

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 17, 2024

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
January 17, 1991: The Gulf War in Iraq begins.  “Operation Desert Storm”, launched in response too Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, led to approximately 100,000 civilian deaths.
January 17, 1997 A court in Ireland granted the first divorce in the Roman Catholic country’s history.  Go to article.

Benjamin Franklin, b. 1706.
Al Capone, b. 1899.
William Stafford, poet, b. 1914.
James Earl Jones, actor, b.1931.
Muhammed Ali, “The Greatest” boxer, b. 1942

Popular artists unite for FireAid benefit concert
The FireAid benefit concert, an event to raise funds for LA wildfire victims, will take place on January 30. So far, the performer lineup includes Lady Gaga, Stevie Nicks, Billie Eilish, Red Hot Chili Peppers and more.

Video: Latest eruption at one of the world’s most active volcanoes
Hawaii’s Kīlauea volcano has been occasionally erupting since late December. On Wednesday, it entered its fourth eruptive episode. See the video here.

Nintendo’s Switch 2 console to be released in 2025
Nintendo revealed its newest console on Thursday after a yearslong wait.

Schrödinger’s Cat breakthrough could usher in the ‘Holy Grail’ of quantum computing, making them error-proof
Errors in quantum computers are an obstacle for their widespread use. But a team of scientists say that, by using an antimony atom and the Schrödinger’s Cat thought experiment, they could have found a way to stop them.   Read More.

Secrets of Alexander the Great mosaic revealed after 1st-of-its-kind analysis
There are around 2 million pieces that make up the Alexander the Great mosaic, but where did they come from? Read More.

‘Totally amazing’ astronaut photo captures comet C/2024 G3 ATLAS shooting past Earth from the ISS
NASA astronaut Don Pettit has snapped a striking shot of the super-bright comet racing past our planet for the first time in 160,000 years, as it lit up the night skies across the globe. Read More.

‘Spooky’ quantum entanglement discovered inside individual protons for 1st time ever
Physicists have long-suspected that the building blocks of protons experienced quantum entanglement. Now, researchers have the first direct evidence — after using a trick to infer subatomic particles’
entropy. Read More

Great winds are powerless to disturb the water of a deep well. –Chinese Proverb.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sapporo, Japan
Julia Mühlbacher of Austria in action during the official training of the FIS ski jumping women’s at Okurayama jump stadium in Hokkaido
Photograph: Atsushi Tomura/Getty Images

Singapore
Visitors look at the Madam White Snake exhibit, a living floral sculpture on display at Gardens by the Bay as part of Lunar New Year celebrations
Photograph: Roslan Rahmanroslan Rahman/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Emperor penguins form an orderly queue as breeding season begins in Antarctica
Photograph: Natacha Planque/IPEV/WWF
Market Closes for January 17, 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
43487.83 +334.70
+0.78%
S&P 500  5996.66 59.32
+1.00%
NASDAQ  19630.20 +291.91
+1.51%
TSX  25067.92 +221.72
+0.89%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  38451.46 -121.14
-0.31%
HANG
SENG
19584.06 +61.17
+1.35%
SENSEX  76619.33 -423.49
-0.55%
FTSE 100* 8505.22 +113.32
+1.35%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.297 3.342
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.420 3.466
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.6270 4.6125
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.8567 4.8545

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.6912 0.6946
US
$
1.4468 1.4397

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.4887 0.6717
US
$
1.0293 0.9715

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix 
2715.20 2677.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future  77.88 78.68

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 1946, the Federal Reserve temporarily eliminated all margin trading after the stock market had gained more than 20% in the five months following the end of World War II.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.9%, or 221.72 to 25,067.92 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on Nov. 21.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.4%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 5.0%.
Today, 151 of 222 shares rose, while 66 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.2%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 22
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 22.5% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.9t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.65% compared with 11.26% in the previous session and the average of 10.44% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 71.4623| 1.7| 31/11
Financials | 61.9341| 0.8| 15/11
Materials | 33.1600| 1.1| 37/9
Industrials | 22.6593| 0.7| 22/6
Utilities | 12.6729| 1.4| 14/1
Information Technology | 6.8394| 0.3| 6/4
Consumer Staples | 6.4005| 0.7| 8/2
Communication Services | 5.0700| 0.9| 2/3
Consumer Discretionary | 1.3146| 0.2| 5/6
Real Estate | 0.3751| 0.1| 8/12
Health Care | -0.1818| -0.3| 3/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 43.2300| 4.4| 0.5| 8.6
Enbridge | 16.3200| 1.7| -25.7| 5.5
TC Energy | 15.4100| 3.2| -34.7| 2.3
Intact Financial | -1.7740| -0.6| 45.4| -3.0
National Bank of Canada | -6.1540| -2.0| 3.8| -1.7
Bank of Nova Scotia| -7.4960| -1.2| -23.0| -4.7

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street powered ahead as stocks notched their best week since the November presidential election just ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Most groups in the S&P 500 rose, with the gauge up 1% Friday.
Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. led gains in mega caps, while Intel Corp. jumped 9.2% on a report the chipmaker is an acquisition target.
Also aiding sentiment were headlines that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed trade, TikTok and fentanyl, which could set the tone for relations between the world’s two largest economies.
Bonds also rebounded this week, with 10-year yields down about 15 basis points in the span.
Trump, who is set to be sworn in as the 47th US president on Monday, has reiterated his focus on core priorities such as cutting taxes and raising tariffs.
Equities soared following the election on bets the new administration will enact pro-growth policies that will boost Corporate America.
While stocks faltered last month on hawkish Fed signals, recent data showing cooling inflation reignited bets on rate cuts.
“This week’s easing inflation data and a positive reaction to earnings from several financial companies resulted in a bond and stock rally,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Recent short-term oversold conditions and weak bullish sentiment are underpinning the recovery of the major indices from within their primary uptrends.”
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, the bounce in equities is encouraging, indicating the balance between bulls and bears is leveling.
“Markets are likely to remain in a zigzag pattern through earnings season,” he noted.
“Once earnings season is finished, expectations are reset, and the buyback window reopens, the bulls can reestablish control.”
The S&P 500 rose 1%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.7%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8%.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps rallied 1.8%.
The Russell 2000 advanced 0.4%.
Buoyed by solid earnings, banks continued to surge, sending a closely watched industry gauge up 8.2% for the week.
US markets will be closed Monday for a holiday.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.61%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%.
Bitcoin jumped to around $105,000.
“What a difference a week makes,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“At this time last Friday stocks were selling off sharply thanks to a better-than-expected jobs report.  It revealed the equity market’s somewhat seemingly obvious preference for rate cuts over a solid economy.”
From a technical perspective, Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, says the setup was “nearly perfect for oversold conditions to collide with positive news and trigger the rally we are currently experiencing.”
When Trump takes his oath as the next US president on Monday, stock investors will have one big reason to breathe a sigh of relief.
History shows the performance of the equities benchmark over a three-month period usually improves after inauguration day.
History shows that the average three-month performance of the S&P 500 going into the ceremony is just about 1%, compared to a 3.7% rise on the way out, according to Jefferies’ analysis of data going back to 1929.
The index “typically trades lumpy around inaugurations,” the firm’s strategists said, but things start to improve a few months in.
In fact, on average the S&P gains 8.3% six months into an inauguration and about 9.5% 12 months in, according to Jefferies.
Trump’s return to the White House will likely shield US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
US stocks are “protected by Trump” from downside, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, although he doesn’t expect sharp gains either due to risks including high concentration in mega-cap technology stocks, valuations and investor positioning.
“We continue to view US equities as attractive, forecasting that 9% earnings growth this year will drive the S&P 500 to 6,600 by the end of the year,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Large-caps should outperform mid- and small-caps given their greater AI exposure, better earnings trends, and less dependency on Fed rate cuts.
Sector-wise, he likes information technology, financials, utilities, communication services, and consumer discretionary.
“When you’ve had so many years should significant outperformance of US equities, it’s very difficult to then look at opportunities outside the US and think that they’re going to be any more attractive,” said Zehrid Osmani at Martin Currie Investment Management. “But valuation discipline has to be an important angle for investors. We would need to see a broadening of the earnings momentum at the moment.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp.’s $13 billion investment in OpenAI raises concerns that the tech giant could extend its dominance in cloud computing into the nascent artificial intelligence market, the Federal Trade Commission said in a report released Friday.
* The Supreme Court unanimously upheld a law that threatens to shut down the wildly popular TikTok social media platform in the US as soon as Sunday, ruling that free speech rights must yield to concerns that Chinese control of the app creates a national- security risk.
* US auto safety regulators are probing General Motors Co. over concerns that more than 870,000 of its full-size pickup trucks and SUVs face the risk of engine failure.
* Applied Materials Inc. and Lam Research Corp. were raised to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets as the broker repositions semi cap coverage toward immediate growth drivers.
* J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings trailed expectations and it warned about first-quarter results, as well as cost pressures in 2025.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. and Southwest Airlines Co. were downgraded to underperform from neutral at Bank of America Corp., which citied their lower exposure to corporate, premium and international routes.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s blockbuster drug Wegovy was targeted for price cuts by the US government and suffered a setback in a new trial, adding to growing threats to the Danish company’s early dominance in the surging market for new weight-loss treatments.
* Bumble Inc. founder Whitney Wolfe Herd will return to the dating-app firm as chief executive officer, a year after she handed over the reins to a Slack Technologies Inc. executive.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0275
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.2170
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 156.15 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.5% to $104,677.54
* Ether rose 5.9% to $3,514.99

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.61%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.66%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $77.95 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,701.21 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian and John Viljoen.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
“Dost thou love life?  Then do not squander time; for that’s the stuff life is made of”-Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com