Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Valentine’s Day! ❤🌹❤🌹❤🌹

Film lovers: Whether you adore Valentine’s Day or loathe it, we have movie recommendations for you. – NY Times.

February 14, 1876: Alexander Graham Bell applies for a patent for the telephone, a groundbreaking invention that revolutionizes global communication.

Dispatch: An ancient English ritual meant to chase away evil spirits and the winter blues is back. – NY Times.

Monkey blamed for nationwide blackout in Sri Lanka
It sounds bananas but I’m not lion … A monkey is being blamed for a power outage in Sri Lanka that disrupted supply to the island’s 22 million people.

‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
A photographer’s four-year project produced more than half a million photos. But one stood out from them all.

Boeing Starliner astronauts say they aren’t stuck in space
The two astronauts who piloted the Boeing Starliner’s first crewed test flight responded to claims that they were “abandoned” in space.

Denny’s is closing dozens of restaurants
The American diner is closing at least 30 of its restaurants as part of the struggling chain’s plans to jumpstart growth.

Biological aging may not be driven by what we thought
A new study draws a line between random genetic mutations and predictable epigenetic changes used to measure biological aging. Read More.

Parts of San Francisco and Los Angeles are sinking into the sea — meaning sea-level rise will be even worse
A study led by NASA and NOAA has found that California is sinking in some areas, which means the projected sea level rise for parts of Los Angeles and San Francisco has doubled. Read More.

Scientists just rewrote our understanding of epigenetics
DNA and RNA epigenetics, once thought to be separate, have now been found to work together to fine-tune gene expression. Read More.

Supercomputer runs largest and most complicated simulation of the universe ever
Frontier, the second fastest supercomputer in the world, used dark matter and the movement of gas and plasma rather than just gravity to model the observable universe.  Read More.

Watch record-breaking great white shark get tagged and released off East Coast
Scientists have tagged a giant male great white shark off the East Coast. The researchers said “Contender” is the largest male white shark ever caught and studied in the northwest Atlantic. Read More.

“R.F.K. Jr. is now in charge of the F.D.A., N.I.H. and C.D.C., to which Americans said, ‘OMG,’ ‘WTF’ and ‘FML.’” — JIMMY FALLON.

“But now it has happened, so you can now add ‘employment’ to the list of things he’s tested positive for.” — JORDAN KLEPPER.

“The Senate today confirmed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of health and human services. He was actually Trump’s second choice, but the Wuhan bat withdrew his nomination.” — SETH MEYERS.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Space
An image made by the integration of photographs taken over six hours shows Nebula IC 443 over Hinojedo in Cantabria, Spain. This supernova remnant, known as Medusa Nebula, is in the Gemini constellation, 5,000 light years from Earth
Photograph: Pedro Puente Hoyos/EPA

Male red deer in Richmond Park, London, UK
Photograph: SMPNEWS/Alamy Live News

Pathum Thani, Thailand
Thai Buddhist monks pray at Wat Dhammakaya temple
Photograph: Guillaume Payen/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 14, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44546.08	-165.35
		-0.37%
S&P 500	6114.63	-0.44
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	20026.77	+81.13
		+0.41%
TSX	25483.23	-215.29
		-0.84%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39149.43	-312.04
		-0.79%
HANG SENG	22620.33	+805.96
		+3.69%
SENSEX	75939.21	-199.76
		-0.26%
FTSE 100*	8732.46	-32.26
		-0.37%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.109	3.117
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.299	3.306
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4762	4.5308
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6963	4.7328

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7051	0.7047
US $	1.4182	1.4190

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4884	0.6718
US $	1.0495	0.9528

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2915.30	2891.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.29	71.29

MARKET COMMENTARY:
Save a lot and save often. -Richard Bernstein, 1932-2022.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 25,483.23 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.1% on Feb. 3 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 156 of 220 shares fell, while 63 rose.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.1%.
Seabridge Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 15.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 17 times. The next day, it declined 10 times for an average 0.8% and advanced seven times for an average 0.4%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.5% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 23.3% above its low on Feb. 14, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.15t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.99% compared with 10.68% in the previous session and the average of 11.19% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -109.0458| -2.5| 3/40
Materials | -85.9826| -2.7| 7/42
Industrials | -15.4513| -0.5| 11/17
Consumer Discretionary| -14.3872| -1.8| 2/9
Consumer Staples | -10.4974| -1.1| 4/6
Health Care | -1.0317| -1.5| 0/4
Real Estate | -0.6868| -0.1| 8/12
Information Technology| -0.6102| 0.0| 3/6
Utilities | 1.7545| 0.2| 7/8
Communication Services| 2.1366| 0.4| 3/2
Financials | 18.5229| 0.2| 15/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -25.4500| -5.1| 80.6| 20.7
TC Energy | -14.9800| -3.1| 62.3| -2.8
Franco-Nevada | -10.9600| -4.0| -11.3| 16.1
Brookfield Asset Management | 8.1630| 3.8| 79.4| 8.7
CAE | 10.3200| 13.8| 318.3| 4.1
Fairfax Financial | 10.4500| 3.5| 42.9| 3.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The bond market ended the week with solid gains as a soft reading on retail sales revived bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
A rally in Treasuries pushed the 10-year yield below 4.5%, with the bond notching its fifth straight week of gains — the longest run since July 2021.
Money markets are back to fully pricing in a first Fed reduction by September.
The S&P 500 hovered near its all-time highs. The dollar hit a fresh low for 2025.
US retail sales slumped in January by the most in nearly two years, indicating an abrupt pullback by consumers after a spending spree in the closing months of 2024.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, decreased 0.9% after an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December.
“The consumer sentiment report showed people were getting nervous and today’s weak retail sales number confirmed it,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“However, the resulting slack is good news for the Fed and tilts the balance a little bit more toward rate cuts.”
At Interactive Brokers, Jose Torres says the weak consumption report is reopening the door to a potential Fed reduction this summer, a prospect that was dampened by a “piping hot” inflation print earlier this week.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%.
US markets will be closed Monday for Presidents’ Day.
Meta Platforms Inc. rose for a 20th consecutive session.
Dell Technologies Inc. jumped on news it’s near an over $5 billion server deal for Elon Musk’s xAI.
Intel Corp. fell Friday, but closed with its best week since 2000.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.48%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%.
“Consumers pulled back hard on spending after a generous holiday season, but they were still willing to open their pocketbooks when it came to dining out,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“This suggests households remain confident in the economy even as policy uncertainty has risen.”
To Gary Schlossberg at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, evidence of slowing activity isn’t enough to offset recent signs of firming inflation and shift expectations back to an early rate cut by the Fed.
“Are consumers taking a break?” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Investors should be careful not to extract too much meaning from one data point. However, weaker retail sales amid increasing or stubbornly high inflation is a burden for US consumers and companies. It’s too early to call it a trend, but if that trend were to develop, it would be a troubling sign.”
Will Compernolle at FHN Financial says he’s skeptical the report signals a true inflection point in consumer spending.
Paired with an “overzealous reaction” to Thursday’s producer price index, bonds have moved into “overbought territory,” he said.
“The positive scenario from today’s data is this: rates ease as the economy moderates and the consumer weakness is a blip that doesn’t impact investors’ love affair with stocks,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“The flipside is a much worse scenario: the consumer and the government both slam their wallets shut, impacting GDP faster than the Fed is willing or able to operate.”
Faster inflation in the US could end up being a “blessing in disguise” for financial markets because it will force President Donald Trump to opt for smaller trade tariffs, according to Bank of America Corp’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist recommended buying bonds, saying that the 30-year Treasury yield likely reached a multi-year high of about 5% in January.
The yield was trading near 4.7% on Friday.
Hartnett also reiterated his preference for international equities over US stocks.
“Bond yields have certainly bounced around this week, and the fact that they’ve been able to come back down played a big role in yesterday’s strong rally in the stock market,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“However, this seemed to have more to do with the inflation issue than with the war or with tariffs.”
Given that the stock market has been range-bound for almost three months now, any meaningful upside breakout of this range will be quite positive on a technical basis, Maley concluded.
An analysis conducted by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows that the market has been more micro-driven than average since the start of 2023.
During the last 6 months, 74% of the typical S&P 500 stock’s returns have been driven by company-specific rather than “macro” factors vs. an average of 58% over the past two decades.
“We expect the current micro-driven environment will persist in 2025,” said strategists led by David Kostin.
Among the factors, they said economic forecasts point to a healthy growth environment this year; continued artificial- intelligence development and adoption should create differentiation across stocks; elevated policy uncertainty also suggests elevated dispersion.
“Debates over trade, tax, fiscal, and other policies represent potential catalysts for additional return dispersion,” they noted. “A micro-driven market creates opportunity for active managers.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Airbnb Inc. issued an upbeat forecast for the first three months of 2025, citing “continued strong demand” after a bustling holiday travel season.
* Applied Materials Inc., the largest US maker of chip- manufacturing equipment, issued a lukewarm revenue forecast for the current period, citing the risk of export controls crimping its business.
* Coinbase Global Inc. said revenue more than doubled and profit increased more than forecast during last quarter’s Trump- inspired rally in digital assets.
* Dell Technologies Inc. is in advanced stages of securing a deal worth more than $5 billion to provide Elon Musk’s xAI with servers optimized for artificial intelligence work.
* DraftKings Inc. shares rose as much as 15% to their highest level in nearly three-and-a-half years after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations and raised its sales guidance for the current year.
* Moderna Inc. recorded a quarterly loss as vaccine sales waned and the company had an unexpected charge for a canceled manufacturing contract.
* Palo Alto Networks Inc. issued a disappointing earnings outlook for the current quarter, despite rivals including Fortinet Inc. and Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. posting strong results.
* Roku Inc., the streaming-video platform company, reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
* SoundHound AI Inc., Serve Robotics Inc. and Nano-X Imaging Ltd. tumbled after Nvidia Corp. filed a 13F indicating that the chipmaker exited its stakes in the companies.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is considering taking a controlling stake in Intel Corp.’s factories at the request of Trump administration officials, a person familiar with the matter said, as the president looks to boost American manufacturing and maintain US leadership in critical technologies.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0491
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2586
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 152.32 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $97,156.73
* Ether rose 2.2% to $2,726.16
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $70.72 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.5% to $2,884.89 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Margaryta Kirakosian, Julien Ponthus and Divya Patil.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
There are all kinds of love in this world, but never the same love twice. -F. Scott Fitzgerald, 1896-1940.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

February 13^th, 1741: First magazine published in the US.
February 13^th, 1895: The Lumière brothers receive a French patent for the Cinématographe, a device that functions as a film camera, projector, and printer, revolutionizing the motion picture industry.
February 13^th, 1949: Dresden Fire bombing.
February 13^th, 1960 France exploded its first atomic bomb. Go to article.

Peter Gabriel, musician, b. 1950

Rock & Roll Hall of Fame 2025 nominees announced
A pop diva. A rock duo. A jam band. Here are the nominees for this year’s Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.

From rooftops to islands, Hong Kong has basketball courts everywhere
Hong Kong has thousands of outdoor basketball courts — some in the most peculiar locations. This photographer wants to capture them all.

New Zealand is home to the ‘world’s clearest lake.’
Tourists are even being told to wipe their shoes before visiting it.

Carmakers Nissan and Honda call off merger talks
Japan’s Nissan and Honda have put the brakes on merger talks that would have created the world’s third-largest carmaker.

2,500-year-old painted tomb with ‘unique scene of smithy’ discovered at Etruscan necropolis in Italy
Archaeologists in Italy have discovered a 2,500-year-old Etruscan tomb that is richly decorated with wall paintings. Read More.

Parisian photographer produces phenomenal, perfectly-proportioned ‘planetary parade’ portrait
A French astrophotographer recently snapped shots of the moon, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune in a single evening, and rearranged them to create a striking composite image. Each “planetary parade” member was captured with the same magnification, meaning they are perfectly scaled. Read More.

A strange triangle will appear in the zodiac this month. How to see rare ‘zodiacal light,’ before it disappears.
A ‘false dusk’ will be visible during twilight in February, but only from locations that are free of light pollution. Here’s everything you need to know about zodiacal light. Read More.

Physicists discover ‘ghost particle’ 100 times more energetic than ever seen before
Physicists have detected the highest-energy neutrino ever felt on Earth. The neutrino, detected at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, has nearly 100 times more energy than any ghost particle previously detected. Read More.

Watch robot dog and drone locked in fierce battle — blasting fireworks at each other in future warfare demo
A viral video captured in an unknown location and widely shared on social media in China shows a robotic dog and a drone firing fireworks at each other. Read More.

From the Late Night Shows:
“President Trump spoke today with Russian president Vladimir Putin on the phone. And, bad news, you guys, we gotta change the name of the gulf again.” — SETH MEYERS.

“In a post on Truth Social today, President Trump said that he spoke with Russian president Vladimir Putin and discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, energy, artificial intelligence, the power of the dollar, Moo Deng, Sydney Sweeney, the return of the Shamrock Shake and this season of ‘The Traitors.’ ‘[imitating Trump] We got off track towards the end of the call. We got a little off track.’” — SETH MEYERS.

“President Trump said that he had a nice phone call with Vladimir Putin. Putin was like, ‘[imitating Putin] I told you I wouldn’t forget Valentine’s Day.’” — JIMMY FALLON

“The only awkward part of the call was when Putin said, ‘Is the president there?’ and both Trump and Elon said, ‘Yes?’” — JIMMY FALLON
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Antofagasta de la Sierra, Argentina
‘I took this on my trip along the La Puna region. You can see the road track from El Peñón leading to the ‘pumice stone field’.
Photograph: Alejandro Sala

London, UK
‘Visitors to the Canary Wharf winter lights festival make silhouettes as they take a break.’
Photograph: Colin Page

​​​​​​​Kerala, India
‘Dusk at a beach in Kovalam.’
Photograph: Kalyani Madhura Ramachandran
Market Closes for February 13, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44711.43	+342.87
		+0.77%
S&P 500	6115.07	+63.10
		+1.04%
NASDAQ	19945.64	+295.69
		+1.50%
TSX	25698.52	+135.41
		+0.53%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39513.62	+52.15
		+0.13%
HANG SENG	21814.37	-43.55
		-0.20%
SENSEX	76138.97	-32.11
		-0.04%
FTSE 100*	8764.72	-42.72
		-0.49%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.117	3.179
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.306	3.359
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5308	4.6208
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7328	4.8321

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7047	0.6993
US $	1.4190	1.4301

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4849	0.6734
US $	1.0466	0.9554

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2891.50	2891.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.29	71.37

MARKET COMMENTARY:
Predicting rain doesn’t count.  Building arks does. –Warren Buffett.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 25,698.51 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Jan. 30 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.2%.
Ero Copper Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.7%.
Today, 129 of 221 shares rose, while 87 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 25.6% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 4.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.68% compared with 10.76% in the previous session and the average of 11.19% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 91.1007| 3.3| 7/3
Communication Services | 11.5706| 2.0| 5/0
Materials | 10.3001| 0.3| 29/17
Energy | 9.0178| 0.2| 21/21
Consumer Staples | 7.2774| 0.8| 6/4
Real Estate | 4.8942| 1.0| 18/2
Utilities | 2.4252| 0.3| 8/7
Consumer Discretionary | 1.2136| 0.1| 7/4
Health Care | 0.5411| 0.8| 2/2
Financials | -1.1106| 0.0| 13/12
Industrials | -1.8108| -0.1| 13/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 75.9400| 5.2| 29.4| 18.3
Brookfield Corp | 19.6900| 2.3| -15.4| 3.6
Constellation Software | 11.6700| 1.7| -15.1| 11.6
TD Bank | -5.8780| -0.6| -51.0| 11.2
Kinross Gold | -10.1600| -6.8| 78.6| 21.4
Sun Life Financial | -24.9300| -7.3| 250.1| -8.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks came within a striking distance of their all-time highs while the dollar got hit as President Donald Trump moved to impose reciprocal tariffs — but not right away.
All major groups in the S&P 500 rose, with the gauge up 1%.
The greenback dropped against all of its developed-market counterparts.
Treasuries rebounded from their worst slide since December.
Big tech outperformed as Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. each rallied over 3%.
Apple Inc. gained 2% as chief Tim Cook said the “newest member of the family” is coming on Feb. 19.
Meta Platforms Inc. advanced for a 19th straight day.
While Trump signed a measure directing the US Trade Representative and Commerce secretary to propose new levies on a country-by-country basis, the process could a while to complete.
Howard Lutnick, his nominee to lead the Commerce Department, said all studies should be complete by April 1 and that Trump could act immediately afterward.
The decision not to implement tariffs right away could be seen as an opening bid for negotiation — following the same strategy Trump already used to extract concessions from Mexico and Canada — rather than a sign he’s committed to following through.
“President Trump is seeking to level the global playing field by implementing reciprocal tariffs against nations that maintain levies on the US,” Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers said earlier this week.
“But investors are starting to realize that much of the talk is hardly going to come to fruition with the rhetoric increasingly appearing to be a negotiation tactic.”
To Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, Trump has left open the opportunity for the US’s major trade partners to come to the negotiating table with a counteroffer.
But, there are enough moving parts to this process that it is challenging to have a precise take on how the final tariff structure will develop.
“We’re cautious against rushing too quickly to the conclusion that the market is in a position to move beyond the trade war saga for the time being,” Lyngen said.
Wall Street traders also looked past hot inflation data amid signs the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge will be softer than expected.
The producer price index rose in January by more than forecast.
However, several of its components that feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — the personal consumption expenditures price index — were more favorable last month, registering declines in most health-care items and in airfares.
The next PCE will be released on Feb. 28.
“While PPI was much higher than expected, with even higher revisions, the real data that goes into PCE was weaker,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“And PCE is the one that Jerome Powell and the Fed look at. So in reality, the numbers are better.”
The S&P 500 topped 6,100.
The Nasdaq 100 added 1.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%.
The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Total Return Index climbed 1.8%.
The Russell 2000 gained 1.2%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell nine basis points to 4.53%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.7%.
The yen gained 1.1% on safe-have appeal, while the Canadian dollar touched a new high for the year.
Despite the greenback’s slide on Thursday, the long-term view on the dollar remains positive, according to the Bloomberg dollar index’s fear-greed gauge.
“With the number of rate cuts being pared back for this year and other central banks moving forward with cuts abroad, dollar strength may be here to stay,” said Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
Using history as a guide, a rising greenback has favored domestic equities relative to international and emerging, Grabinski noted.
On the other hand, a weaker US dollar is more favorable for equities in general and historically has been the greatest tailwind for emerging markets.
“To the extent to which the dollar continues to strengthen, it will weigh on companies with high foreign sales exposure,” he said.
“The two sectors with the greatest foreign revenue exposure are technology and materials with 59% and 53% of revenues sourced from abroad, respectively.  On the opposite end of the spectrum is the utilities sector with less than 2% of revenue sourced from abroad.”
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner says a bearish trade is looming for US equities.
The market is increasingly crowded and dip-buying is running out of steam, Rubner said.
The managing director for global markets and tactical specialist was rightfully bullish heading into 2025, while touting an upcoming negative turn.
In a note on Wednesday, he said this was his “last bullish email” for the first quarter.
“Everyone is in the pool, including retail traders, 401k inflows, start of the year allocations, and corporates,” he said.
“The flow demand dynamics are quickly changing, and we are approaching negative seasonals.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s iPhones will use Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s AI technology, the Chinese firm’s chairman said, affirming reports the e-commerce pioneer had scored a coveted role in helping power the iPhone in the world’s top mobile arena.
* Cisco Systems Inc. gave an upbeat sales forecast for the current quarter, helped by companies spending more on computing infrastructure to take advantage of AI technology.
* Trade Desk Inc., a company that helps marketers place ads online, posted its first quarterly miss in eight years and issued a forecast that fell short of Wall Street estimates.
* Deere & Co., the world leader in farm machinery, anticipated another challenging year with grain and soy growers still not spending.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. reported revenue that more than doubled as the online trading firm was buoyed by crypto-market transactions around the US presidential election.
* Reddit Inc.’s fourth-quarter user growth missed Wall Street’s expectations, a sign the newly public company is struggling to keep up with larger digital advertising peers Meta Platforms Inc. and Google.
* Molson Coors Beverage Co. reported profit that beat expectations, with a lift from sales outside of the US.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0462
* The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.2560
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 152.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $96,306.46
* Ether fell 1.1% to $2,654.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.53%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,928.62 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Macarena Muñoz and Winnie Hsu.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The longer the explanation, the bigger the lie. – Chinese Proverb.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Full moon tonight – the “Snow Moon” – last full moon of winter.  It’s Darwin Day, Charles Darwin’s birthday.

February 12, 1912: The last Emperor of China, Puyi, abdicates, leading to the establishment of the Republic of China and significant political reforms.
February 12, 1999: The Senate voted to acquit President Bill Clinton on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice. Go to article.

Abraham Lincoln President of the US, b. 1809.
Charles Darwin, naturalist, b. 1809.
R. Buckminster Fuller, architect, b. 1895.

How to watch February’s full snow moon
Greetings, skywatchers. You may still have a chance to see a full snow moon today along with Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn before they fade from view.

Photo gallery: The 149th Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show
A giant schnauzer named Monty won Best in Show at the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show on Tuesday. It’s im-paws-sible not to love this adorable face.

Paul McCartney surprised New Yorkers with a one-night-only show
The Beatles legend gave NYC an opportunity to “come together” for one night, and one night only –– for a surprise concert in Lower Manhattan.

Chocolate prices are up 20% this Valentine’s Day
Finding sweet deals on chocolate may be harder this Valentine’s Day due to the rising price of cocoa.

127.7 million:  That’s how many viewers tuned into Sunday’s Super Bowl, which saw the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. That marks a 3% increase over last year’s record-breaking game.

People have been dumping corpses into the Thames since at least the Bronze Age, study finds
A new study of human remains dredged from the Thames River reveals that people frequently deposited corpses there in the Bronze and Iron ages. Read More.

World’s biggest underground thermal lake discovered in Albania at bottom of 330-foot abyss
Researchers have returned to an underground thermal lake they first came across in 2021 in southern Albania and confirmed it is the largest of its kind known in the world. Read More.

100-year-old heart drug made from foxglove may help ‘dissolve’ clumps of spreading cancer cells
The heart drug digoxin could potentially be combined with existing cancer therapies to prevent the spread of tumors, an early trial suggests. But questions remain. Read More.

World’s 1st hybrid quantum supercomputer goes online in Japan
Japan’s Fugaku supercomputer has gained an edge following the installation of the Reimei quantum computer. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Istanbul, Turkey
A view of the Bosphorus on a foggy morning
Photograph: Isa Terli/Anadolu/Getty Images

Washington DC, US
Snow covers the north lawn of the White House
Photograph: Ting Shen/AFP/Getty Images
London, UK
‘A winter rose in our garden.’
Photograph: Sofoulis Iacovou
Market Closes for February 12, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44368.56	-225.09
		-0.50%
S&P 500	6051.97	-16.53
		-0.27%
NASDAQ	19649.95	+6.09
		+0.03%
TSX	25563.11	-68.72
		-0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38963.70	+162.53
		+0.42%
HANG SENG	21857.92	+563.06
		+2.64%
SENSEX	76171.08	-122.52
		-0.16%
FTSE 100*	8807.44	+30.05
		+0.34%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.179	3.098
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.359	3.290
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.6208	4.5413
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8321	4.7531

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6993	0.6998
US $	1.4301	1.4289

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4860	0.6729
US $	1.0392	0.9623

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2891.50	2904.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.37	73.32

MARKET COMMENTARY:
A jack oof all trades will never be rich. – Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.3%, or 68.72 to 25,563.11 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.5%.
TerraVest Industries Inc. had the largest drop, falling 10.4%.
Today, 118 of 221 shares fell, while 102 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 24.9% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.14t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.76% compared with 10.85% in the previous session and the average of 11.21% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -61.4058| -1.4| 10/33
Information Technology | -37.7789| -1.3| 3/7
Industrials | -16.8950| -0.5| 7/21
Consumer Discretionary | -9.3525| -1.1| 1/10
Real Estate | -4.6054| -1.0| 2/18
Utilities | -0.3822| 0.0| 10/5
Health Care | 0.1480| 0.2| 3/1
Consumer Staples | 2.2566| 0.2| 8/2
Communication Services | 5.8573| 1.0| 4/1
Financials | 13.7762| 0.2| 17/7
Materials | 39.6588| 1.2| 37/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -38.1400| -2.5| 31.2| 12.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -18.9200| -2.9| 21.5| -3.3
TD Bank | -13.7200| -1.3| -14.5| 11.8
Wheaton Precious Metals | 6.6090| 2.2| -3.9| 20.6
Intact Financial | 17.5300| 5.1| 39.1| 10.9
Barrick Gold | 18.9800| 6.4| 78.2| 16.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market got hammered as hot inflation data spurred bets the Federal Reserve won’t have much room to cut rates this year.
Oil sank as President Donald Trump said he agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.
Treasury 10-year yields soared the most since Dec. 18 when hawkish Fed signals rattled trading.
Money markets adjusted bets on US rate cuts, now projecting the first – and only reduction this year – in December.
Almost every major group in the S&P 500 fell, though the gauge pared most of a 1.1% slide as Tesla Inc. led gains in mega caps and Meta Platforms Inc. rose for an 18^th straight session.
For the first time since November, the Nasdaq 100 erased an intraday loss of 1%.
US inflation picked up broadly at the start of the year, with the monthly consumer price index rising in January by the most since August 2023.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the latest CPI shows that while the central bank has made substantial progress toward taming inflation, there is still more work to do, “so we want to keep policy restrictive for now.”
“Higher-for-longer may have just gotten a little longer,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“The Fed has been waiting for clear signs that inflation is trending lower again, and this morning they got the opposite. Until that changes, the markets are going to have to remain patient about additional rate cuts.”
Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers says it’s really tough to take today’s numbers in stride.
“The bond market didn’t,” he said.
“One feature of the current equity market seems to be this mantra: ‘Every dip is a buying opportunity. The bigger the dip, the bigger the opportunity’.”
Sosnick notes that in a way stocks can be a hedge against modest inflation, since earnings per share are measured in nominal terms. Inflation raises those nominal results, particularly for companies with relatively inelastic demand for their products.
“The largest tech stocks fit that bill, at least while the enthusiasm for all things related to artificial intelligence continues,” he noted.
“And thus, the dips get bought, even with a hot, hot, hot inflation report.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.5%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.64%.
Bonds did not move much in response to a weak $42 billion US auction that saw the highest coupon rate since 2007.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.7% to $71.35 a barrel.
Gold was little changed.
The so-called core CPI — which excludes food and energy costs — increased 0.4% in January after a 0.2% advance in December, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday.
From a year ago, it rose 3.3%. The headline measure rose 0.5% from December and 3% from the year before.
“Today’s inflation report will make for very uncomfortable reading for the Fed,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“If this persists into the next few months, inflation risks may become too heavily weighted to the upside to permit the Fed to cut rates at all this year.”
Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, although it’s too early to predict that officials will begin raising rates any time soon, the market is going to start seriously considering that the next move the Fed makes – even if it is in late 2025 or early 2026 – is going to be a hike and not a cut.
“So caution is warranted,” he said. To Aditya Bhave at Bank of America Corp., the latest figures increase his conviction that the cutting cycle is over.
“Hikes remain unlikely, but they seem less inconceivable now,” Bhave said.
At the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, Larry Tentarelli says while he does not expect any immediate change in Fed policy, if there is a series of two or three hot inflation reports, they could put pressure on the Fed to raise rates.
“In the near-term, we expect higher bond yields and higher volatility in equity markets,” he said.
“Investors should keep a close eye on the 10-year US Treasury yield. Any move closer to or above 4.80% could create negative near-term headwinds for stocks.”
Matt Maley at Miller Tabak noted that Wednesday’s CPI, last week’s employment report and concerns over tariffs have all taken the yield on the 10
-year note back above its trend-line from last September.
“This does not mean that they will push above 5% level soon nor that these yields will not reverse lower at some point later this year,” Maley said.
“However, it should raise concerns that the Fed will wait quite a bit longer to cut short-term rates than the Street had been thinking until recently and also raise concerns that Secretary Scott Bessent’s goal of lower long-term yields will take longer to achieve as well.”
The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes is indeed an important benchmark that helps price trillions of dollars in global assets.
On Feb. 6, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he sees it as a key metric and catalyst for the economy.
The former hedge fund manager believes declines in 10-year Treasury yields — a trend he sees continuing to unfold — are a sign that bond investors are reacting positively to the Trump administration’s policies, which he sees sparking “non-inflationary growth.”
The jump in US inflation last month that surprised investors was mostly due to the way the government adjusts for typical price increases at the start of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics.
While the report spooked markets and reduced odds of a Fed interest-rate cut in the first half of the year, the advances were “mostly due to residual seasonality — the ‘January effect’ — limiting the signal from the hot print,” Bloomberg Economics’
Anna Wong and Stuart Paul wrote. At the same time, inflation ran a touch cooler at the end of 2024.
“Residual seasonality was likely at play in the January CPI report, but we think the data still showed underlying price pressures,” said Andy Schneider at BNP Paribas.
“While the Fed is cognizant of the pattern of early-year inflation strength, the print will do little to ease policymakers’ inflation anxieties.”
To Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group, lack of progress on inflation is the story here.
“This is not the start of a resurgence in inflation,” he said.
“Food and energy are big players in the hot reads, so there’s a chance we get a little reprieve in the spring.”
Mark Hackett at Nationwide, says today will be a test of investor psychology and commitment to the buy-the-dip instinct, as inflation continues to be a primary tail risk for the Goldilocks narrative.
“We have been concerned about inflation as a risk for some time, and believe that while risk markets can go higher, it will be a choppier trajectory than the last two years,” said Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“Investors should use pullbacks to add to U.S. large-cap equities and the energy, financials, industrials, and communication services sectors.
Samana says he would also use moves higher on the 10-year Treasury towards 4.5%-5% to add to lengthen the duration of portfolios and lock in what he believes to be attractive yields.
US PREVIEW: PPI Components Likely to Suggest Core PCE at 0.33%
Swap contracts linked to future Fed decisions, which previously anticipated a rate cut by September, repriced to imply just one quarter-point cut this year.
“Markets priced out cuts in the cycle as the firmer inflation print keeps the Fed on their toes as they assess the impacts of tariff policies as well as the deceleration in inflation from restrictive Fed policy,” said TD Securities strategists including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg.
“We remain long 10-year rates and view levels as attractive entry points.”
All else equal, hotter inflation would likely keep the Fed from cutting rates sooner, which would in turn result in a stronger dollar, according to Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab.
“The dollar’s strength could help offset some of the inflationary pressures in the economy and from tariffs. It also makes US Treasuries attractive to hold, helping to mitigate some of the upward pressure on yields,” Flynn said.
“The immediate reaction to today’s report will likely weigh on stocks in the short term, as a higher-than-expected print further lowers the odds of rate cuts from the Fed this year and stokes investors’ reflationary fears,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
To Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, the issue is that US equity markets have been “positioned for perfection” for quite some time now, which means any potholes on the macro front could lead to elevated volatility over the short run (like we are seeing today).
“And when we say positioned for perfection, we note the difference vs being priced to perfection: we are not at peak valuation in this current cycle, and thus the market multiple has a good deal of bandwidth for further expansion in the coming years in our opinion (reflationary bull market cycle),” he said. however, we are seeing an historic skew of equity positioning by both Main Street and institutional investors at this time.”
Wantrobski notes that effectively, long equities remains a very crowded trade at this time- and this is despite the recent pairing of large-cap tech exposure by the buyside.
“This makes for a very lopsided position in our view, which leaves little room for error (like today’s hotter-than- anticipated CPI print).”

Wall Street’s Reaction to CPI:
* Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.:
Today’s data doesn’t change the narrative that US economic momentum was solid over the turn of the year, while inflation progress stalled. If anything, this further confirms US Federal Reserve rhetoric to hold rates steady for a while. We think inflation is likely to hold steady at uncomfortably elevated levels through 2025 (~3% core CPI).
* Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors:
For now, it’s a “wait and see” approach for Fed Chair Jay Powell and his colleagues, who recognize that the case for further easing in the near term has been reduced. Rate hikes don’t appear to be on the table, but a sustained resurgence in inflation could change that.
* Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments:
The “wait and see” Fed is going to be waiting longer than anticipated after a red-hot January CPI inflation report. Prices jumped more than expected and in a broad-based fashion which is consistent with yesterday’s comments from Chair Powell that the Fed is not “in a hurry” to adjust interest rates. This report puts the final nail in the coffin for the rate cut cycle, which we believe is over.
Today’s hotter print shifts investor expectations for monetary policy, which lends to upward pressure on long-term interest rates and downward pressure on equities. Not all equities are impacted equally, however, with more indebted companies facing headwinds from higher rates while others will ultimately benefit from higher revenues as they are able to charge more for their products. We believe value should outperform growth in such an environment.
* Whitney Watson at Goldman Sachs Asset Management:
Today’s stronger than expected CPI release is likely to further cement the FOMC’s cautious approach to easing. A resilient labor market also provides scope for patience.  We think the Fed is likely to remain in “wait and see mode” for the time being and anticipate the Fed staying on hold at next month’s meeting.
* Michael Brown at Pepperstone:
These figures should see the Fed maintain their patient stance, being in no hurry to deliver another rate cut. Consequently, any rate reductions in the first half of 2025 now seem highly unlikely.
* Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital:
With this very strong CPI print, the Federal Reserve is on hold when it comes to interest rates for at least the remainder of 2025.
Inflation and inflation expectations are both rising, which is something the Fed needs to counter by keeping rates higher for longer.
The Fed has nothing to do at this point but wait and see, and hope that the economic indicators change to suggest more progress on inflation.  If consumer prices or inflation expectations rise any further, it is quite possible that the Fed’s next move is to raise short term interest rates.

Corporate Highlights:
* Chevron Corp. plans to cut its global workforce by 15% to 20% by next year, as part of efforts to reduce costs at the US oil major.
* Kraft Heinz Co. said it will discount key items in the coming year while improving products and boosting marketing in order to compete for inflation-weary customers.
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, issued an outlook for orders in the first quarter that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, serving as yet another sign that consumer demand remains resilient.
* CVS Health Corp. shares climbed the most in more than 25 years after its fourth-quarter results signaled improved performance from the company whose insurance and drugstore units have been struggling.
* Spirit Airlines Inc. rejected a refreshed acquisition offer from rival budget carrier Frontier Group Holdings Inc., saying it would instead proceed with a planned restructuring in bankruptcy.
* Biogen Inc. forecast a bigger decline in annual sales than Wall Street expected, dimming the drugmaker’s strong finish to 2024.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0390
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2445
* The Japanese yen fell 1.3% to 154.43 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $96,978.82
* Ether rose 2.1% to $2,678.15
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.63%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.48%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.7% to $71.35 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, John Viljoen, Sujata Rao, Allegra Catelli and Aya Wagatsuma.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Life isn’t about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself. –George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
St. Bernadette of Lourdes, France.

February 11, 1979: Followers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized power in Iran, nine days after the religious leader returned to his home country following 15 years of exile. Go to article.
February 11, 1990: Nelson Mandela released from prison.
February 11^th, 2020: The World Health Organization officially names the novel coronavirus disease “COVID-19,” standardizing the terminology for global health communication.

Thomas Edison, inventor, b. 1847.
Jennifer Aniston, actress, b. 1969.

MIT builds swarms of tiny robotic insect drones that can fly 100 times longer than previous designs
Scientists have built a new type of robotic insect that can fly 100 times longer than previous generations. Read More.

Mysterious tunnels sketched by Leonardo da Vinci in 1495 may finally have been discovered — hidden under a castle in Milan
Researchers may have found the hidden tunnels beneath a castle in Milan that Leonardo da Vinci sketched in 1495. Read More.

Scientists discover Earth’s inner core isn’t just slowing down — it’s also changing shape
The surface of Earth’s inner core appears to be dynamic, changing shape as it rotates, earthquake waves reveal. Read More.

Bahamas shark attack
Two American tourists were recently injured in an apparent shark attack while swimming in the Bahamas. Here’s what we know.

The Venice entry fee is back
It will cost 10 euros for day-trippers to visit the beloved Italian city of Venice on some days this summer. The fee is double from last year’s 5 euros to help curb overcrowding.

Mysterious portrait of a woman revealed beneath Picasso painting
Art historians studying a painting by Pablo Picasso have uncovered the mysterious portrait of a woman hidden beneath its surface.

Why are vintage cars stored in the middle of the desert?
One of the world’s strangest museums is located in the deserts of Qatar. See the vintage cars inside Sheikh Faisal Bin Qassim Al Thani Museum.

Africa’s first caviar is surprising the luxury food industry
Africa’s first sturgeon farm is selling caviar at over $10,000 per kilogram — and it’s made its way into some of the most prestigious kitchens in the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Hindus climb the 272 steps to the Batu Caves temple to make offerings during the Thaipusam festival
Photograph: Mohd Rasfan/AFP/Getty Images

Mount Etna, Italy
Lava flows from the Mount Etna volcano
Photograph: Marco Restivo/Etna Walk/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​New Delhi, India
A common silverline butterfly rests on a flower in New Delhi
Photograph: Harish Tyagi/EPA
Market Closes for February 11, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44593.65	+123.24
		+0.28%
S&P 500	6068.50	+2.06
		+0.03%
NASDAQ	19643.86	-70.41
		-0.36%
TSX	25631.83	-27.03
		-0.11%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39042.98	+241.81
		+0.62%
HANG SENG	21294.86	-227.12
		-1.06%
SENSEX	76293.60	-1018.20
		-1.32%
FTSE 100*	8777.39	+9.59
		+0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.098	3.063
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.290	3.256
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5413	4.4968
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7531	4.7066

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6998	0.6979
US $	1.4289	1.4329

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4807	0.6754
US $	1.0363	0.9650

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2904.45	2874.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.32	72.32

Market Commentary:
Experience is helpful, but it is judgement that matters. –General Colin Powell, 1937-2021.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 25,631.83 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.8%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
Ero Copper Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.3%.
Today, 144 of 221 shares fell, while 76 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 25.2% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.14t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.85% compared with 10.86% in the previous session and the average of 11.23% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -57.8535| -1.8| 4/45
Financials | -19.8424| -0.2| 9/16
Industrials | -5.3852| -0.2| 9/19
Real Estate | -4.9476| -1.0| 3/17
Consumer Staples | -3.5917| -0.4| 3/7
Utilities | -2.7801| -0.3| 4/11
Health Care | -0.5845| -0.9| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | 0.5209| 0.1| 7/4
Communication Services | 5.4373| 0.9| 4/1
Information Technology | 23.9106| 0.9| 2/8
Energy | 38.0992| 0.9| 30/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | -12.0500| -1.4| -38.7| 1.5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -11.5900| -2.3| -18.7| 24.9
Brookfield Asset Management | -7.6100| -3.5| 105.2| 2.0
TD Bank | 8.4490| 0.8| -26.5| 13.3
Suncor | 13.0300| 2.6| 104.0| 13.1
Shopify | 42.6400| 2.9| 110.4| 15.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields rose and stocks fluctuated as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank is in no rush to cut rates.
Bonds fell across the curve, with money markets continuing to fully price in just one rate cut by the Fed this year.
The S&P 500 remained stuck in a tight range.
Most big techs dropped, though Meta Platforms Inc. climbed for a 17th consecutive day.
Intel Corp. and GlobalFoundries Inc. surged as Vice President JD Vance said the US will make sure the most sophisticated artificial-intelligence hardware is made domestically.
Just a day ahead of a key inflation reading, Powell signaled that officials will be patient before lowering borrowing costs further as the economy remains strong.
He also told Congress it is unwise to speculate on tariff policy at this time.
Powell is due to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the Fed is taking an “extended time-out on rates,” but remains oriented towards lowering borrowing costs further if and when there is further sustained inflation progress.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
With a high-low range sitting below 0.6% for two days in a row, the gauge was mired in a stretch of tight trading not seen since mid-December.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%.
“The stock market has been stuck in a sideways range,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“Despite the narrative on Wall Street, the market is not broadening out to the degree that some people are trying to portray. So, until we break out of this range, investors will want to remain nimble.”
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.54%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.3%.
US inflation showed scant signs of downward momentum at the start of the year, while healthy job growth undergirded the economy, backing the Fed’s stance to hold the line on interest rates for now.
Bureau of Labor Statistics figures due on Wednesday, shortly before the second half of Powell’s two-day testimony marathon, are forecast to show the consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in January for the fifth time in the last six months.
Compared with a year earlier, core CPI is forecast to have risen 3.1%.
While marginally lower than the annual figure for December, that’s just a 0.2 percentage point decline from the middle of last year.
“Recent inflation prints, coupled with a strong jobs market will allow patience from the Federal Reserve who will likely hold policy at its target range of 4.25%-4.50% in March,” said Josh Hirt at Vanguard.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 41% of respondents expect the market reaction to CPI to be “risk-off,” 31% said “risk-on” and 28% “mixed/negligible.”
In addition, 37% of investors surveyed by 22V believe that financial conditions need to tighten.
“This value has come down significantly since last month,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V.
“59% believe that core CPI is on a Fed friendly glide path without a significant tightening of financial conditions, and 4% think there will be a recession.”
“With the labor market remaining strong and inflation still slightly above the Fed’s target, it’s not surprising that traders are pushing out prospects of another interest rate cut from the Fed toward the middle of the year,” said Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
Weller bets the volatility around this week’s inflation reading may be more limited than in the past, as the Fed will, in all likelihood, still get another handful of inflation and jobs reports before making any additional changes to interest rates.
“That said, a pickup in price pressures could lead traders to start asking whether the Fed’s interest rate cutting cycle may be completed already, complicating the path forward for a central bank that has clearly been hinting that the easing cycle isn’t done yet,” he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. delivered more jets in a month than Airbus SE for the first time in almost two years as the plane maker begins to recover from a lengthy strike and years of turmoil.
* Coca-Cola Co.’s profit beat Wall Street expectations as shoppers paid higher prices for the company’s sodas, energy drinks and juices.
* Shopify Inc. reported quarterly revenue that exceeded expectations, suggesting its e-commerce software solutions stood out with merchants during the busy holiday quarter.
* Humana Inc. will cut membership in its Medicare Advantage plans, its biggest business, while spending to improve government quality ratings that have hurt revenue from the program.
* Travelers Cos. said it expects about $1.7 billion of pretax losses from the wildfires that devastated Los Angeles last month.
* DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s earnings jumped on growth in the electronics market, suggesting the conglomerate’s push to cut costs and break up into smaller, more focused businesses is paying off.
* S&P Global Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat estimates as strong issuance of corporate debt bolstered the firm’s ratings business.
* WK Kellogg Co. posted fourth-quarter profit that topped Wall Street’s expectations, even as the cereal maker called out challenges weighing on sales.
* Marriott International Inc.’s guidance for net rooms growth in 2025 proved softer than some analysts expected.
* Elliott Investment Management disclosed a more than $2.5 billion stake in oil refiner Phillips 66 and plans to push the company to sell or spin off its pipeline business.

Key events this week:
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Services panel, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0362
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2444
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 152.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $95,268.2
* Ether fell 2.5% to $2,597.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.54%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.51%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $73.23 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,898.10 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Phil Kuntz, Martin Keohan, John Viljoen and Margaryta Kirakosian.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Suppose you were an idiot.  And suppose you were a member of Congress.  But I repeat myself. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday!

February 10, 1964: Bob Dylan’s album “The Times They Are A-Changin”‘ was released. Go to article
February 10, 1996: IBM’s Deep Blue defeats world chess champion Garry Kasparov in a game, marking the first time a computer has beaten a reigning world champion under standard chess tournament time controls.

11,000-year-old settlement in Canada could rewrite history of Indigenous civilizations in North America
The discovery of an 11,000-year-old village in Saskatchewan could rewrite Indigenous history in central Canada. Read More.

Alaska’s ice is melting in front of our eyes, staggering satellite shots show
Unusual weather patterns and climate change have been driving stark changes in the northwestern state. Now, new satellite images show the extent of this transformation. Read More.

Stunning, rainbow-colored object spotted by James Webb telescope could be an alien solar system in the making
The James Webb Space Telescope has captured a belching protostar in its infancy. By studying the dust grains whirling around it, astronomers hope to better understand how solar systems like our own take shape. Read More.

Orcas off Antarctica filmed teaching calves to hunt in incredible new footage
PBS show “Nature: Expedition Killer Whale” reveals an hour-long lesson where adult orca teach calves how to hunt seals off Antarctica. Read More.

Coldest-ever qubits could lead to faster quantum computers
Scientists have cooled qubits to record low temperatures using a quantum refrigerator powered by “hot thermal baths.” Read More.

Would a fallout shelter really protect you in a nuclear blast?
Nuclear bunkers aren’t a foolproof way to stay safe during a nuclear attack. Here’s why. Read More.

Super Bowl LIX: A recap on the ads and Kendrick Lamar’s halftime show
CNN curated a list of Super Bowl commercials that stood out in a crowded field. Rapper Kendrick Lamar also headlined an energetic halftime show, completing a victory lap after a year-long feud with rapper Drake.

New marriages in China crash to record low
Around 6 million couples in China registered their marriages in 2024, a plunge of about 20% from the previous year. Read how the government is encouraging young people to tie the knot.

How to keep your private conversations private
These apps and online tools can help you maintain privacy in an increasingly connected world.

One of the last surviving Tuskegee Airmen dies at 100
Retired Lt. Col. Harry Stewart Jr., a decorated World War II pilot and one of the last surviving Tuskegee Airmen, has died. Watch this short video to learn about his life and legacy.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

North Woodstock, US
People trek through the caverns and snow at Ice Castles in New Hampshire. Since 2011, Ice Castles has been dedicated to creating a world of ice caves, frozen waterfalls and glaciers formed into archways, caverns, slides and tunnels
Photograph: Joseph Prezioso/AFP/Getty Images

Carr Shield, UK
Snow blankets the Northumberland village
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

​​​​​​​Ağrı, Turkey
People cross a bridge over a frozen lake
Photograph: Abdullah Söylemez/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 10, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44470.41	+167.01
		+0.38%
S&P 500	6066.44	+40.45
		+0.67%
NASDAQ	19714.27	+190.87
		+0.98%
TSX	25658.86	+215.95
		+0.85%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38801.17	+14.15
		+0.04%
HANG SENG	21521.98	+388.44
		+1.84%
SENSEX	77311.80	-548.39
		-0.70%
FTSE 100*	8767.80	+67.27
		+0.77%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.063	3.082
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.256	3.263
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4968	4.4947
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7066	4.6926

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6979	0.6999
US $	1.4329	1.4287

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4766	0.6772
US $	1.0305	0.9704

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2874.65	2838.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.32	71.00

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1997, Prudential Insurance emerged as the investor backing a pioneering financial instrument: debt backed by music royalties. David Bowie became the first musician to securitize his back catalog with Prudential snapping up all $55 million of the “Bowie bonds,” which paid 7.9% interest.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8% at 25,658.86 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Jan. 30 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.9%.
MDA Space Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 13.0%.
Today, 153 of 221 shares rose, while 67 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 25.4% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.11t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.86% compared with 10.93% in the previous session and the average of 11.23% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 64.2511| 2.0| 40/10
Energy | 59.9851| 1.4| 38/4
Information Technology | 49.7259| 1.8| 10/0
Industrials | 30.8797| 1.0| 20/8
Consumer Discretionary | 11.3075| 1.4| 8/3
Communication Services | 5.2189| 0.9| 4/1
Real Estate | 3.5532| 0.7| 13/7
Utilities | 1.4685| 0.2| 8/7
Health Care | -0.9476| -1.4| 0/4
Financials | -2.0544| 0.0| 7/18
Consumer Staples | -7.4435| -0.8| 5/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 39.0600| 3.9| 101.9| 12.4
Shopify | 32.9600| 2.3| 29.6| 12.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 11.7000| 2.4| 27.1| 27.9
CIBC | -7.6090| -1.3| -36.2| -3.4
Couche-Tard | -8.4400| -2.1| 95.1| -8.5
RBC | -15.4600| -0.9| -17.8| -2.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks kicked off the week with gains, rebounding after a slide driven by concerns over inflation and US tariff threats.
The dollar strengthened and gold hit a record high.
The advance in equities was led by the market’s most-influential group – technology – with the Nasdaq 100 up over 1% Monday.
Nvidia Corp. extended a five-day surge to about 15% while Meta Platforms Inc. rose for a 16th consecutive session.
Materials producers were also on the spotlight amid President Donald Trump’s plans to impose 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminum.
United States Steel Corp. and Alcoa Corp. climbed at least 2.2%.
Trump said Sunday the steel and aluminum tariffs would apply to shipments from all countries, including major suppliers Mexico and Canada.
He didn’t specify when the duties would take effect.
The president also said he would announce reciprocal tariffs this week on countries that tax US imports.
Aside from the global trade picture, investors will also be focused on this week’s key inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress.
Expected inflation rates over the next year and three years ahead were both unchanged in January at 3%, according to results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations published Monday.
“Inflation data, Powell’s congressional testimony, and tariffs are poised to drive the market story,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“If the S&P 500 is going to break out of its two-month consolidation, it may need a respite from the types of negative surprises — like DeepSeek, tariffs, and consumer sentiment — that have tripped it up over the past few weeks.”
Hedge funds emerged as big buyers of US stocks last week, shifting away from a previously bearish stance in the wake of stronger-than-expected earnings reports.
They snapped up US equities at the fastest pace since November, resulting in the heaviest net buying of single stocks in more than three years, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage report for the week ended on Feb. 7.
The activity was heaviest in the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 rose 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%.
The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Total Return Index advanced 0.4%.
The Russell 2000 Index gained 0.4%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.5%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%. Gold topped $2,900 an ounce.
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, many investors are starting to realize that much of the tariff talk is hardly going to come to fruition, with the rhetoric increasingly appearing to be a negotiation tactic.
“The posturing is intended to benefit domestic economic conditions rather than disrupt global commerce momentum, and the outcomes are likely to be much better than feared,” he said.
“For this reason, traders are stepping up to the plate today and scooping up stocks.”
“In the Old Testament, even God rested on the seventh day!” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“Since the Inauguration, though, whether you love or hate him, we can all agree that President Trump’s second term has started with a nonstop fire hose of news and headlines.”
Despite the jitters around the news flow, one metric shows the market has actually been surprisingly calm.
Over the last 100 trading days, the roughly $630 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) has traded in a relatively narrow range of less than 10%, according to Bespoke.
While that may sound like a wide range, it ranks in just the 13th percentile of all comparable periods dating back to SPY’s inception in 1993.
Back in Covid, this reading spiked above 50% and during the Financial Crisis, it widened even more, peaking above 75%.
“Investors may be better served by not reacting to the news cycle,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Stand still and let tariff, Big Tech, and interest-rate developments play out over the near term. Making investment decisions on still unknown outcomes increases the risk of being wrong or offside if developments shift in the opposite direction.”
“Despite day-to-day confusion, tariff uncertainty, the geopolitical environment, and elevated valuations in the tech space remain the biggest unknowns for investors,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Together, these factors point to measured gains this year rather than blockbuster returns of recent years.”
By one barometer, investors’ expectations for the stock market have never been this high at the start of a presidential term.
The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, more commonly known as the CAPE ratio, stood at nearly 38 in late January, an “extremely high” level, according to Charlie Bilello at Creative Planning.
Positioning tells a similar story.
The US equity risk premium (ERP) — a measure of the differential between the expected returns of stocks and bonds — is deep into negative territory, something that hasn’t happened since the early 2000s.
Whether that’s a negative indicator for share prices depends on the economic cycle.
A lower number can be seen as indicating that corporate profits are going to rise.
Or it could mean that stocks are climbing too rapidly and are far above their actual value.
“Although multiples are elevated, we remain fully invested due to the potential for continued economic growth, moderating inflation and an accommodative Fed,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners.
“Our characterization for stocks this year is a choppy market that trends higher over the year.”
Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management says high expectations, elevated rates and policy uncertainty “don’t mix well together.”
“We’re learning that in real time,” Cox said. “Strive for portfolio balance, and remember that there’s a world outside of AI.”
The resilience of stocks in the face of tariffs may invite further trade escalations, making equity pullbacks likely, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Binky Chadha.
They noted these pullbacks require same playbook as for geopolitical shocks, which have historically seen sharp but short-lived selloffs, with equities typically bottoming even as the event continues and recouping losses before any de-escalation.
In such scenarios, equities would typically weaken 6%-8%, moving lower for three weeks before gaining strength for three weeks.
“For investors, the greatest market risk likely lies in policy unpredictability,” according to Christian Floro at Principal Asset Management.
“Given this environment, diversification is essential to manage portfolio risk and capture opportunities as companies, countries and markets adjust.”
While headlines continue to be dominated by concerns over tariffs and mega cap tech spending, the market narrative shift around broadening and leadership is being confirmed by fundamentals and market dynamics, according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Watch for rotation of stock index leadership from the Magnificent Seven toward value, cyclicals and non-GenAI infrastructure secular growth,” she said.
“Consider adding cyclicals like financials, energy, domestic manufacturers and consumer services to US stock positions.”
“We stay overweight US equities on a solid macro outlook and the AI mega force – a big, structural shift,” said BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Jean Boivin and Wei Li.
“We go overweight government bonds in the euro area, where the potential growth hit from tariffs should reinforce rate cuts.”
As US stocks confront mounting risks, such as questions around the economy and gains concentrated in just a few companies, it’s a good time to shift into other equity markets, says Alexander Altmann at Barclays Plc.
The firm’s global head of equities tactical strategies, who joined the bank last year after running a portfolio at Millennium Capital Management, recommends “shorting US exceptionalism” — at least temporarily —  with American stocks at historically high valuations.

Corporate Highlights:
* Toronto-Dominion Bank expects to raise about $14 billion through the sale of its entire stake in Charles Schwab Corp. as part of a corporate overhaul in the wake of its historic US money-laundering settlement.
* Microsoft Corp. is under investigation from the French antitrust authority amid concerns the US tech giant is degrading the quality of results when smaller rivals pay to use Bing technology in their own search-engine products.
* McDonald’s Corp. sales rose in the fourth quarter after growth in the chain’s international business made up for a decline in the US.
* Lyft Inc. will launch driverless rides with technology vendor and Intel Corp. spinoff Mobileye Global Inc. in Dallas as soon as 2026, building on a partnership that was first announced last November.
* Hyatt Hotels Corp. struck a deal to purchase Playa Hotels & Resorts NV for about $2.6 billion, expanding its reach into the all-inclusive resort market in countries including the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.
* Hertz Corp. has kicked off negotiations to settle litigation surrounding a make-whole payout of over $270 million that has been demanded by some bondholders, the company said on Monday.
* BP Plc surged after Elliott Investment Management built a stake in the company, seeking to end years of under-performance by pushing for significant change.
* The notion that China’s DeepSeek spent under $6 million to develop its artificial intelligence system is “exaggerated and a little bit misleading,” according Google DeepMind boss Demis Hassabis.

Key events this week:
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives semiannual testimony to Senate Banking Committee, Tuesday
* Fed’s Beth Hammack, John Williams, Michelle Bowman speak, Tuesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Services panel, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0306
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2365
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 151.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $97,382.75
* Ether rose 5.1% to $2,684.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.36%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.46%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $72.45 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.6% to $2,907.21 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Catherine Bosley and Matthew Burgess.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You were born to win, but to be a winner, you must plan to win, prepare to win, and expect to win. –Zig Ziglar, 1926-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

February 7, 1962:  President John F. Kennedy imposed a full trade embargo on Cuba. Go to article.
February 7, 1974: Independence Day, Grenada.
February 7, 1992:  The Maastricht Treaty is signed, leading to the creation of the European Union and fostering economic and political unity in Europe.

Charles Dickens, writer, b.1812.
Chris Rock, comedian, b.1966.
Ashton Kutcher, actor, b. 1978.

‘Impossible’ black holes detected by James Webb telescope may finally have an explanation — if this ultra-rare form of matter exists
Observations from the James Webb Space Telescope reveal monster black holes in the early universe that seem to have grown too big, too fast. New research points to a strange form of dark matter as a possible culprit. Read More.

World’s largest-ever bead stash found in 5,000-year-old ‘Ivory Lady’ tomb in Spain
More than a quarter million beads found in a tomb with female skeletons were used to decorate the women’s ceremonial dresses, suggesting they were powerful leaders five millennia ago. Read More.

Watch humanoid robots waltzing seamlessly with humans thanks to AI motion tracking software upgrade
Lifelike human motion could enable robots to complete far more tasks, as well as adapt to environments they’ve not been specifically designed for. Read More

PHOTOS O FTHE DAY

Spectators watch a starling murmuration over Brighton beach at sunset, on the English south coast
Photograph: Simon Dack News/Alamy

Impalas in Kruger national park during golfers’ practice before the Africa Amateur Championship at Leopard Creek country club in Malelane, South Africa
Photograph: Oisin Keniry/R&A/Getty Images

Alpuente, SpainThe peloton of the 76th Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana cycle race pass through signs of spring
Photograph: Szymon Gruchalski/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 7, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44303.40	-444.23
		-0.99%
S&P 500	6025.99	-57.58
		-0.95%
NASDAQ	19523.40	-268.59
		-1.36%
TSX	25442.91	-91.58
		-0.36%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38787.02	-279.51
		-0.72%
HANG SENG	21133.54	+241.92
		+1.16%
SENSEX	77860.19	-197.97
		-0.25%
FTSE 100*	8700.53	-26.75
		-0.31%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.082	2.961
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.263	3.152
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4947	4.4322
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6926	4.6358

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6999	0.6988
US $	1.4287	1.4310

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4757	0.6776
US $	1.0330	0.9681

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2838.95	2871.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.00	70.61

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1804, John Deere was born in Rutland, Vt. In 1837 he threw the American frontier wide open by inventing the self-cleaning steel plow, making it possible to farm the rich Midwestern and Western soil.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 91.58 to 25,442.91 in Toronto.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 119 of 221 shares fell, while 97 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
BCE Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.2%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 24.3% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.93% compared with 10.88% in the previous session and the average of 11.11% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -31.4241| -1.1| 4/6
Industrials | -22.2425| -0.7| 10/18
Communication Services | -16.6167| -2.8| 2/3
Financials | -11.4280| -0.1| 11/14
Materials | -9.2207| -0.3| 22/28
Consumer Staples | -6.5876| -0.7| 3/7
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2989| -0.4| 4/7
Real Estate | -1.9882| -0.4| 4/13
Utilities | -1.8229| -0.2| 4/10
Health Care | -0.8969| -1.3| 0/4
Energy | 13.9633| 0.3| 33/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -19.5400| -1.4| -26.0| 9.6
BCE | -13.2900| -6.2| 121.3| -5.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -11.8300| -1.6| 0.2| 5.9
Power of Canada | 4.1140| 2.3| -4.8| 6.7
Cameco | 4.9080| 2.3| -4.8| -3.5
ARC Resources | 5.1890| 5.1| 78.4| -0.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders worried about the potential impacts of US tariffs on inflation didn’t get much relief from economic data that only underscored concerns over  price pressures, reinforcing speculation the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates.
Stocks erased this week’s gains, with the S&P 500 down about 1%.
President Donald Trump said he will announce reciprocal levies next week in an escalation of his trade war.
United States Steel Corp. sank as he indicated Nippon Steel Corp. is considering investing in the company instead of an outright purchase.
Equities came under pressure after data showed a slide in consumer sentiment amid concern over inflation.
Mixed jobs figures highlighted a moderating — yet healthy — labor market, and a jump in wages.
Bonds fell.
Mega caps slid amid a disappointing outlook from Amazon.com Inc.
The latest economic readings help explain why policymakers have signaled they aren’t in a hurry to lower borrowing costs after three rate cuts last year.
While traders are still betting the next move will be a reduction, they are only fully pricing one in September.
“The broader picture is still one of labor market resilience and sustained wage pressures,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “This simply gives the Fed little reason to cut policy rates immediately.”
The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps sank 2%.
The Russell 2000 dropped 1.2%.
Amazon tumbled about 4%.
Roblox Corp. is part of an active investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, according to information obtained by Bloomberg News.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.49%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000 last month after upward revisions to the prior two months.
Other revisions only carried out once a year weren’t as severe as once thought — job gains averaged 166,000 a month last year, a slowdown from the initially reported 186,000 pace.
The unemployment rate was 4.0% — the survey used to produce the number incorporated separate revisions to reflect a new population estimate at the start of the year, which makes the figure incomparable to prior months.
Meantime, hourly wages climbed 0.5%.
“Strong wage growth is good for workers and should be viewed as a positive for consumer spending,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“However, Wall Street has watched this gauge closely over the last few years, worrying that too strong of wage growth could push inflation higher.”
Outside of the headline result, the latest jobs report is not cause for alarm, he said.
“While some investors may worry about implications for inflation or rate cuts, make no mistake about it: It’s better to have a strong economy and labor market than a deteriorating environment. Remember, stocks tend to do well amid mild inflation,” Kenwell concluded.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, the fixed- income reaction to the data is an opportunity to go long the asset class.
“Ultimately, the Fed will need to cut rates because too many things don’t work with rates up this high,” Dutta said.
“Looking at the data itself, cyclical areas of the labor market are sluggish. Goods producing employment is soft and total hours in the manufacturing sector fell.”
Yet Dutta also notes that the low level of unemployment likely keeps the Fed on the sidelines.
“The Fed is not in a forgiving mood right now,” he said.
“ They are looking for reasons to wait and today’s report gives them one.”
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said it’s appropriate to keep the Fed’s benchmark interest rate where it is for some time, given a stable labor market, limited progress on inflation in recent months and uncertainty over the outlook for fiscal and trade policy.
Meantime, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC he expects inflation will continue to cool toward the 2% target, allowing policymakers to lower interest rates “modestly” by the end of the year.
Lindsay Rosner at Goldman Sachs Asset Management says the Fed is likely to be cautious about reading too much into today’s report.
“Either way you spin it, the Fed should feel quite cozy sitting tight the rest of winter knowing that it was the right decision to hit the pause button on rate cuts,” said Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management.
The Fed has already been pushing out expectations for its next rate cut, and this jobs report probably justifies that approach — if not nudging them to push out expectations even further, according to Jason Pride at Glenmede.
“The Federal Reserve has another round of inflation and employment data to mull before the next scheduled announcement on March 19,” said Mark Hamrick at Bankrate.
“It is seen remaining patient before making another interest rate move having recently opted to stand pat.”
In the week ahead, the US January consumer price index report is likely to prove a mixed bag for the inflation-fighting Fed, while retail sales probably slowed, according to Bloomberg Economics.
“Core CPI has surprised to the upside in January in 13 of the last 14 years, with yields rising in 6 out of last 7 Februarys,” said Guneet Dhingra at BNP Paribas.
“However, this year we could see an asymmetry towards lower yields – an upside print might be seen as a ‘usual’ January distortion, but a downside print is seen as good news.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc. warned investors that it could face capacity constraints in its cloud computing division despite plans to invest some $100 billion this year, with most of the money going toward data centers, homegrown chips and other equipment to provide artificial intelligence services.
* Apple Inc. plans to unveil a long-anticipated overhaul of the iPhone SE in the coming days, a move that will modernize its lower-cost model in a bid to spur growth and entice consumers to switch from other brands.
* Pinterest Inc. posted strong holiday-quarter revenue and gave an upbeat forecast for sales in the current period, a sign that its advertising business continues to grow despite increased competition from much larger rivals in the social networking space.
* Cloudflare Inc., a software company, reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
* Expedia Group Inc. posted better-than-expected gross bookings in the final months of 2024, reflecting resilient demand for travel during the winter holiday season.
* Nikola Corp. is exploring a possible bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the matter, following a tumultuous period in which the electric truck maker has swung between stock-market darling and scandal-plagued enterprise.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.95% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0329
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2409
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $95,923.59
* Ether fell 4% to $2,601.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.37%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.48%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $70.95 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,861.96 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lynn Thomasson, Allegra Catelli and Robert Brand.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.-Will Rogers, 1879-1935.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
February 5, 1675: The Royal Greenwich Observatory begins official operations, playing a critical role in astronomy and timekeeping, including defining the Prime Meridian.
February 5, 1937: President Roosevelt proposed increasing the number of Supreme Court justices; critics charged Roosevelt was attempting to “pack” the court. Go to article

Hank Aaron, baseball player, b.1934.

Ocean plate from time of Pangaea is now being torn apart under Iraq and Iran
What was once the floor of an ancient ocean is still shaping the landscape between Arabia and Eurasia. Read More.

Jupiter’s ‘tormented moon’ Io just unleashed the most powerful volcanic event ever seen
NASA’s Juno spacecraft has discovered a giant volcanic hot spot on the surface of Jupiter’s hellish moon Io. The eruptions in this area are chucking out six times the energy being produced by all Earth’s power stations, researchers say.  Read More.

How much did SpaceX’s Starship Flight 7 explosion pollute the atmosphere?
Scientists are not sure how much metallic dust remained in the atmosphere after the most recent SpaceX rocket ‘disassembly.’ Read More.

New laser-based artificial neuron processes enormous data sets at high speed
A new artificial neuron that spikes like human brain cells could be used to process data at ultrafast speeds.  Read More.

What’s happening in Santorini?
Over 6,000 residents have recently left the Greek island of Santorini after hundreds of earthquakes. Local officials say the intense seismic activity may continue for many more days, if not weeks.

Google updates its AI ethics policy
Google has erased its promise not to use artificial intelligence technology for weapons or surveillance. Here’s what we know.

Just deal with it in the morning
A new study shows why tackling a problem in the morning may be beneficial.

Light pollution is getting worse
Light pollution negatively impacts wildlife and humans, but the solutions are surprisingly simple. Read about the movement to preserve natural darkness.

The Super Bowl is often a snapshot in time and the NFL is in a unique position to capture and lift the imagination of the country. — An NFL spokesperson, confirming that the phrase “Choose Love” will be stenciled in the back of one end zone at Sunday’s Super Bowl. The other end zone will have the message “It Takes All of Us.” According to The Athletic, this will be the first time that the words “End Racism” are not used in the big game since 2021.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ashford, England
Mist covers Hoad’s Wood as the sun rises over Kent
Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

Toronto, Canada
A flock of Canadian geese at Rouge Beach in Rouge national urban park, Ontario
Photograph: Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Heron Island, Australia
A green sea turtle hatchling attempts to find its way to the ocean. The hatchlings often face predators such as seagulls and reef sharks, resulting in an estimated survival rate of one in 1,000
Photograph: James Gourley/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 5, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44873.28	+317.24
		+0.71%
S&P 500	6061.48	+23.60
		+0.39%
NASDAQ	19692.33	+38.31
		+0.19%
TSX	25569.84	+290.49
		+1.15%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39027.58	+196.10
		+0.50%
HANG SENG	20597.09	-192.87
		-0.93%
SENSEX	78271.28	-312.53
		-0.40%
FTSE 100*	8623.29	+52.52
		+0.61%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.951	3.013
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.136	3.193
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4261	4.5105
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6388	4.7459

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6983	0.6980
US $	1.4321	1.4328

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4891	0.6715
US $	1.0398	0.9617

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2843.55	2826.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.03	73.16

MARKET COMMENTARY:
🌷 On this day in 1637, “Tulip mania” hit its peak in the Netherlands, with the price of the rare Witte Croonen tulip bulb up 2,506% in 33 days. Over the next five years, the bulbs lost an annual average of 76% of their value.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.1%, or 290.49 to 25,569.84 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Finning International Inc. had the largest increase, rising 12.6%.
Today, 154 of 221 shares rose, while 62 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 12 times. The next day, it advanced nine times for an average 0.4% and declined three times for an average 1%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 24.9% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.89% compared with 10.53% in the previous session and the average of 11.08% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 70.2713| 2.5| 10/0
Financials | 61.8555| 0.8| 20/5
Materials | 61.0854| 1.9| 37/13
Industrials | 40.4620| 1.3| 19/8
Energy | 18.4272| 0.4| 18/22
Consumer Discretionary | 11.0248| 1.4| 9/2
Utilities | 10.4153| 1.1| 12/3
Real Estate | 8.0042| 1.7| 18/2
Communication Services | 7.9119| 1.3| 3/2
Health Care | 1.1771| 1.7| 4/0
Consumer Staples | -0.1279| 0.0| 4/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 31.0100| 2.1| 14.7| 14.0
Brookfield Corp | 15.6700| 1.9| -7.5| 3.3
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 15.1700| 3.2| 66.3| 25.5
Thomson Reuters | -2.8170| -1.2| 207.5| 2.9
FirstService | -3.2430| -4.3| 261.9| -4.2
Nutrien | -5.4260| -2.1| -18.7| 15.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks bounced back as gains in most major industries overshadowed underwhelming earnings from some tech heavyweights.
Bonds climbed after a weak reading on US services.
Some 350 companies in the S&P 500 rose, with the benchmark erasing earlier losses.
Nvidia Corp. led gains in chipmakers.
But a gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps sank 1.5% as Alphabet Inc.’s results drove Google’s parent to its worst plunge in over a year.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. tumbled 6.3% on a disappointing outlook.
Treasury yields reached 2025 lows.
The dollar fell.
QUALCOMM SEES 2Q REV. $10.3B TO $11.2B, EST. $10.35B Wall Street has been whipsawed by uneven economic data, trade tensions and questions on whether the billions of dollars spent on artificial intelligence will start to pay off.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, the flurry of market-moving headlines in the first few weeks of 2025 serves as a stark reminder to investors that volatility can emerge unexpectedly.
“The ultimate performance of equity markets by year’s end is far less significant than how investors navigate the volatility encountered throughout the year,” he said.
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia.
Last night, Alphabet’s results sparked questions about its capital expenditures from the cohort of big techs that has powered the bull market.
While the “Magnificent Seven” have made up more than half of the S&P 500’s gains over the past two years, their profit growth is decelerating.
“Within the US stock market, we like large caps — particularly S&P 493 companies — which should expand profit margins as they adopt productivity-boosting technologies,” said Ed Yardeni, founder of his namesake research firm.
“We do not believe the Mag Seven are grossly overvalued. However, we see room for the S&P 493 to outperform.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. pared losses to 1% after saying it contacted the US Securities and Exchange Commission with concerns about investor Bill
Ackman’s since-deleted X post suggesting the company overstated profits.
Uber Technologies Inc. slid 7.6% on a weak gross bookings guidance.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.42%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%.
“Volatility has been the story this week, with the stock market trying to find its footing as it navigates a shifting tariff landscape and mixed earnings,” said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“The S&P 500 hit new record highs less than two weeks ago, but taking a step back, it’s really been in a ‘choppy consolidation’ since early December.”
Given ongoing tariff uncertainty, Skelly says “international” sectors like IT hardware and equipment, autos, and parts of the consumer goods space may be more vulnerable.
Meantime, domestically-oriented areas of the market, such as financials, may attract investor interest.
Legendary short seller Jim Chanos says no one can see the biggest risks facing US markets over the next six to 12 months — because the challenges are going to be unpredictable events, like the recent DeepSeek concern that wiped out roughly $1 trillion in market value from US stocks.
“The real risks will be something like DeepSeek that comes out of left field that changes people’s thinking,” Chanos said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Wednesday.
“By definition, we do not know what that is.”
As the earnings season rolls in, one thing Bespoke Investment Group strategists are keeping a close eye on is the percentage of stocks reporting “triple plays.”
That’s when a company exceeds analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines while boosting forward guidance.
So far this year, 75% of stocks have beaten consensus earnings-per-share estimates, while 66% have exceeded revenue estimates, they said.
While those rates are strong relative to history, we’ve also seen 8% of companies lower guidance — compared to just 5% that have raised guidance.
“When triple plays were super common in 2021, share prices were reacting much less positively to them,” Bespoke strategists said.
“Now that triple plays have become less common again, the stocks that are reporting triple plays are reacting more positively.”
Over the last three months through Tuesday, there have been exactly 100 stocks that have reported triple plays, Bespoke noted.
And these stocks have averaged a one-day share price gain of more than 10% in response.
As traders gear up for Friday’s jobs report, data showed employment at US companies picked up in January by more than forecast, highlighting resilient labor growth despite mounting uncertainty.
Federal Reserve officials are closely tracking developments in the jobs market as they assess how much to lower interest rates this year.
A rapid pickup in the unemployment rate last summer was a key driver behind policymakers’ decision to lower rates by a full percentage point in 2024.
That said, the job market has showed renewed strength since then, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell describing it last week as “pretty stable.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows only 24% of respondents think Friday’s data will be “risk-on.”
Thirty percent said “risk-off” while 46% “mixed/negligible.”
“Investors have turned their focus to average hourly earnings this month after being far more focused on payrolls and the u-rate last month,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V.

Corporate Highlights:
* MicroStrategy Inc., the software maker that has been tapping capital markets to fund purchases of Bitcoin, announced on Wednesday that the company would now be doing business under the name Strategy.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.’s sales rose less than expected, highlighting the high bar the company set by defying an industrywide traffic slowdown in recent years.
* Walt Disney Co. reported fiscal first-quarter results that topped analysts’ estimates, fueled by the blockbuster film Moana 2 and higher income from its streaming services.
* Johnson Controls International Plc jumped following a boost in its profit forecast and the hiring of a new chief executive officer.
* Match Group Inc. named Zillow Group Inc. co-founder Spencer Rascoff as its new chief executive officer, replacing Bernard Kim who has struggled to end a persistent decline in subscribers to the company’s flagship dating app Tinder.
* Snap Inc. issued a disappointing earnings outlook, taking away from stronger-than-expected revenue gains in the last quarter.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* UK rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller, Lorie Logan speak, Thursday
* Amazon earnings, Thursday
* US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0405
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2502
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 152.70 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $97,327.01
* Ether rose 4.7% to $2,764.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.42%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.37%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.44%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $71.22 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,862.27 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand, Margaryta Kirakosian and Winnie Hsu.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. –Joseph Joubert, 1724-1824.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
February 4, 1977 The album “Rumours” by Fleetwood Mac was released. Go to article.
February 4, 2004: Facebook is founded by Mark Zuckerberg and his Harvard roommates, revolutionizing social media and global communication.

1985: Torture abolished by the UN.

Charles Lindbergh, aviator, b.1902.
Betty Frieden, feminist writer, b.1921

12 pivotal moments in the history of robotics, from Isaac Asimov to self-driving cars
From Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics to bipedal machines you can buy today, here are 12 important milestones in the development of robots. Read More.

Ice age Europeans as young as 10 years old rocked cheek piercings 30,000 years ago
A study of Paleolithic skeletons from Central Europe suggests people’s teeth were worn down and crowded together because of cheek piercings. Read More.

Photo gallery: Kumbh Mela, the world’s largest religious festival
The world’s largest religious festival is in full swing, with millions of Hindu devotees making the pilgrimage to a holy city in northern India to bathe in its sacred waters. See photos here.

Super Bowl ticket prices are plummeting
The cheapest ticket for Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans has fallen below $4,000 on the secondary market, or around 50% cheaper compared to last year’s record-breaking game. Read why the prices are deflated.

Human brain samples contain an entire spoon’s worth of nanoplastics
Human brains today contain 50% more plastic than in 2016, a new study found. The brains of people diagnosed with dementia had the most.

China to send flying robot to search for water on the moon’s far side
*Sings* Fly me to the moon … Let me play among the stars …

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
The Eiffel Tower is obscured by fog
Photograph: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

A musher competes with his dogs during the Sedivackuv Long 2025 sled dog race near the Czech-Polish border in the Orlicke mountains

Obihiro, Japan
Heavy machinery is used to clear a road in Hokkaido prefecture as snow falls across northern Japan
Photograph: Jiji Press/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 4, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44556.04	+134.13
		+0.30%
S&P 500	6037.88	+43.31
		+0.72%
NASDAQ	19654.02	+262.06
		+1.35%
TSX	25279.35	+37.59
		+0.15%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38798.37	+278.28
		+0.72%
HANG SENG	20789.96	+572.70
		+2.83%
SENSEX	78583.81	+1397.07
		+1.81%
FTSE 100*	8570.77	-12.79
		-0.15%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.013	3.073
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.193	3.252
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5105	4.5555
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7459	4.7908

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6980	0.6930
US $	1.4328	1.4429

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4871	0.6724
US $	1.0380	0.9634

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2826.10	2812.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.16	72.53

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 Facebook turns 21 today. On this day in 2004, Mark Zuckerberg and three others launched thefacebook.com, aiming to create a digitized student directory. It hit a million users by December that year.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.1% at 25,279.35 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.5%.
TMX Group Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 8.3%.
Today, 148 of 221 shares rose, while 71 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.3% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 23.5% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 0.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.97t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.53% compared with 10.71% in the previous session and the average of 11.09% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 50.0776| 1.2| 36/7
Information Technology | 38.4087| 1.4| 4/6
Materials | 14.1662| 0.5| 32/18
Consumer Staples | 7.3339| 0.8| 10/0
Industrials | 6.0806| 0.2| 19/9
Real Estate | 2.8354| 0.6| 15/4
Health Care | 0.0263| 0.0| 3/1
Communication Services | -0.5477| -0.1| 3/2
Consumer Discretionary | -2.0668| -0.3| 5/5
Utilities | -3.1754| -0.3| 10/5
Financials | -75.5510| -0.9| 11/14
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 35.3400| 2.5| -9.7| 11.6
Celestica | 10.5300| 7.3| 14.1| 42.5
Canadian Natural Resources | 9.9040| 1.5| -29.5| 0.0
Bank of Montreal | -13.4400| -1.9| 8.4| -0.1
Brookfield Corp | -26.1200| -3.0| 6.6| 1.4
RBC | -31.4200| -1.8| -20.6| -2.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Technology shares got hit in late hours as Alphabet Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s quarterly figures failed to inspire.
A $329 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) slipped after the close of regular trading.
Alphabet lost 7% as its revenue missed expectations after growth in the cloud business slowed.
AMD slid 5% as disappointing results for its data center division signaled the company is not making gains on Nvidia Corp. in artificial-intelligence computing.
In regular hours, a wave of dip buying lifted stocks after a wild day for financial markets, with big tech leading the way.
Following a slide fueled by uncertainties over a trade war, the S&P 500 rose almost 1%.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps climbed 1.7%.
Meta Platforms Inc. rose for a 12th consecutive session — its longest winning streak ever.
“Short-term market jitters have proven good short-term buying opportunities,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
The latest reading on US job openings underscored a gradual slowdown on the labor front.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the data eases upside risks into Friday’s employment report in a way that is helpful for the Federal Reserve and markets.
Meantime, the first volleys in the latest US-China trade war made clear that Xi Jinping is taking a more cautious approach than during Donald Trump’s first term.
After the US leader gave a last-minute reprieve to both Canada and Mexico, his 10% tariffs on China took effect on Tuesday.
Within seconds, Beijing announced additional tariffs on roughly 80 products to take effect on Feb. 10.
“There is a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate impact from these tariffs may be less than expected,” said Todd Ahlsten at Parnassus Investments.
“These tariffs may also represent the first round of an ultimate negotiation, which could reduce their ultimate impact.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%.
Palantir Technologies Inc. soared 24% on a bullish forecast.
Merck & Co. sank 9.1% after halting shipments to China of its Gardasil vaccine. Estée Lauder Cos. sank 16% on a disappointing revenue outlook.
A UBS Group AG basket of stocks at risk from the proposed tariffs rebounded after losing over 6.5% in two days.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.51%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%.
The Mexican peso slid 0.6%.
Canada’s loonie rose 0.8%.
As Corporate America reports fourth-quarter results, a chasm is opening between the seven biggest companies in the S&P 500 and everyone else.
The giants are boosting their spending at a rapid pace, while the others are barely treading water.
The biggest companies — often called the Magnificent Seven — have been increasing their business outlays on things like property and equipment, spending 40% more on the category in 2024 than the year before, according to strategists at Societe Generale SA. The rest of the S&P 500 grew capital expenses by just 3.5% last year, the strategists added.
“The release of a seemingly more efficient AI model by Chinese startup DeepSeek has renewed questions about AI capex,” said BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Jean Boivin and Wei Li.
“We are in the AI buildout, with total capital investment by the “magnificent seven” mostly mega cap tech stocks on par with government R&D.”
The strategists say they see a “broadening set of AI beneficiaries” and stay overweight US stocks.
Technology was the only sector to decline in January as the S&P 500 managed a 2.7% gain for the month, well above the average January decline of 0.1% since 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
“US stocks managed gains in January and bounced around all-time highs, but there’s turmoil beneath the surface,” said BI strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.
“Our market pulse index suggests sentiment is manic — a warning sign of a vulnerable market just as tariffs resurface as a major risk.”
The strategists noted there was limited turnover in component factors in January, with pairwise correlations, high minus low leverage performance and high-yield spreads in manic territory.
The three other factors — price breadth, defensive minus cyclical sector performance, and low vs. high volatility performance — are neutral.
From 2012-23, in the three months after repeat Pulse readings above 0.6 (manic), the Russell 3000 delivered an average 2.9% total return and the S&P 500 outperformed the Russell 2000 by 178 basis points.
Stronger returns tend to follow panic readings.
The Russell 3000 had an average return of 9% three months later, and small caps led their large brethren by 133 basis points.
“This week will no doubt be a busy one as we follow the ‘telenovela’ that is the evolving tariff wars,” said Kristina Hooper at Invesco.
“I would reiterate the importance of knowing your time horizon and acting accordingly. For the vast majority, that means to stay calm, diversified, and carry on.”
How about investors looking to be more tactical within their portfolio?
“Short-term selloffs are likely to present buying opportunities for those with a long enough time horizon if we see a similar scenario to the 2018-2019 tariff wars unfold again,” Hooper noted.
Nonetheless, a period of trade policy uncertainty could potentially weigh on markets until greater clarity emerges, she said.
“I’m cautiously optimistic that while we may see lots of drama, we may not see a meaningful long-term market impact,” Hooper said.
“The market impact of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war subsided quickly once a resolution was reached.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. rolled out a new app for creating event invitations and made changes to its AppleCare+ customer support for iPhones, part of a broader push to generate more subscription revenue.
* Salesforce Inc. is cutting jobs as its latest fiscal year gets underway, according to a person familiar with the matter, even as the company simultaneously hires workers to sell new artificial intelligence products.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. reported slowing growth in its card- processing business even as fourth-quarter earnings topped analysts’ estimates.
* Spotify Technology SA posted another quarter of better-than- expected subscriber growth in the fourth quarter, helping the Swedish music company record its first-ever annual profit.
* Fox Corp.’s quarterly sales and earnings beat Wall Street forecasts, in part, on higher political ad spending. The company also revealed plans to launch a new streaming service before the end of the year.
* PepsiCo Inc. will respond to value-seeking US consumers with more variety in package sizes and healthier offerings, but won’t reduce prices across the board, the company said.
* Clorox Co. raised sales and earnings guidance for the current year while also reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, showing that the bleach maker’s business continues to recover from a 2023 hack that disrupted operations.
* Pfizer Inc.’s fourth quarter beat expectations on strong sales of its Covid vaccine and pill, bolstering its sales as it seeks to fend off criticism from an activist investor that has argued the company squandered its pandemic gains and needs a new path forward.
* Centene Corp. reported a fourth-quarter profit beat that was aided by a settlement related to payments for patients insured though Obamacare plans.
* Estée Lauder Cos. said it plans to eliminate between 5,800 to 7,000 positions in a corporate restructuring meant to return the flagging company to sales growth under its new chief executive officer.
* Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. is weighing asset divestitures as part of a plan to slash costs as the crop trading giant faces a downturn in profits.
* Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
* KKR & Co. raised its forecast for earnings from long-term private equity wagers and announced that it will increase its ownership in three investments.
* Grab Holdings Ltd. is weighing a takeover of rival GoTo Group at a valuation of more than $7 billion, accelerating talks for a combination to end years of losses in Southeast Asia’s competitive internet market.

Key events this week:
* China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
* Eurozone HCOB Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
* US trade, Wednesday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* UK rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller, Lorie Logan speak, Thursday
* Amazon earnings, Thursday
* US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0385
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2488
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 154.27 per dollar
* The Mexican peso fell 0.6% to 20.4932
* The Canadian dollar rose 0.8% to 1.4318
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $98,672.92
* Ether fell 3% to $2,733.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.51%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.40%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.52%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $72.57 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,844.09 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Martin Keohan, Phil Kuntz, Robert Brand, Margaryta Kirakosian and Aya Wagatsuma.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel. –Maya Angelou, 1928-2014.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

February 3, 1928: The New York Daily News publishes the first color photograph in a newspaper, marking a milestone in print journalism.
February 3, 1971: Apollo 14 astronauts Alan B. Shepard Jr. and Edgar D. Mitchell landed on the lunar surface during the third successful manned mission to the moon. Go to article.

Gertrude Stein, writer, b.1874.
Simone Weil, mystic, b. 1909.

Today in history: Amelia Earhart, the world-famous aviator, visits Seattle in 1933 and speaks at the Civic Auditorium. It is less than nine months since Earhart’s flight on May 20, 1932, made her the first woman — and second person — to fly solo across the Atlantic Ocean. During an earlier visit, Earhart visits with fellow aviation pioneer William Boeing and inspects the Boeing Aircraft Factory. Earhart disappears July 3, 1937, over the Pacific Ocean as she attempts to circumnavigate the earth at the equator. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

Bayeux Tapestry: A 1,000-year-old embroidery depicting William the Conqueror’s victory and King Harold’s grisly death
A long roll of cloth embroidered with key scenes from British history is a unique medieval chronicle. Read More.

Grammy’s red carpet fashion
Some of the celebrities’ looks were just as striking as the performances. See the best fashion moments from the Grammy’s red carpet.

How Alexander the Great redrew the map of the world
He conquered land across three continents and never lost a battle before dying at just 32 years old. Read about Alexander the Great’s legacy and how he redrew the map of the world

Was Alexander the Great eaten by sharks? Inside the wild theories for what happened to the iconic ruler’s body.
Alexander the Great is one of the most famous rulers of the ancient world. As king of Macedonia from 336 B.C. to 323 B.C., he conquered an enormous empire, stretching from the Balkans to modern-day Pakistan. But his reign was brought to an abrupt halt when he died at the age of 32. His cause of death is highly disputed, and his tomb has been lost for centuries.
Hundreds have searched for the tomb, to no avail, and theories of its location range from his homeland of Macedonia (now Greece) to Egypt. But researchers say they are closer than ever before to finding this renowned resting place. Read More

Earth’s crust is peeling away under California
A section of the upper mantle and crust under the Sierra Nevada mountains is peeling away, in a process that may mimic how the continents were formed. Read More.

Why is DeepSeek such a game-changer? Scientists explain how the AI models work and why they were so cheap to build.
DeepSeek’s V3 and R1 models took the world by storm this week. Here’s why they’re such a big deal. Read More.

New fabric can heat up almost 50 degrees to keep people warm in ultracold weather
A new smart fabric converts light into heat and can raise temperatures by more than 54 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) after just 10 minutes in the sun.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Xiangyang, China
Artists perform a dragon dance to celebrate the lunar new year in Hubei province, central China
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
A musher competes with his dogs during the Sedivackuv Long 2025 sled dog race near the Czech-Polish border in the Orlicke mountains
CREDIT: THE GUARDIAN. COM/FEB 03, 2025
Santorini, Greece
Landslides caused by earthquake tremors throw up clouds of dust along a stretch of the island’s rocky cliff face. The latest tremors prompted some people to sleep outdoors and others to leave the island by plane or ferry. More than 200 minor earthquakes were recorded at sea or on surrounding islands, with the strongest – of magnitude 4.6 – striking the waters between Santorini and Amorgos on Sunday afternoon
Photograph: Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 3, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44421.91	-122.75
		-0.28%
S&P 500	5994.57	-45.96
		-0.76%
NASDAQ	19391.96	-235.48
		-1.20%
TSX	25241.76	-291.34
		-1.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38520.09	-1052.40
		-2.66%
HANG SENG	20217.26	-7.85
		-0.04%
SENSEX	77186.74	-319.22
		-0.41%
FTSE 100*	8583.56	-90.40
		-1.04%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.073	3.065
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.252	3.240
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5555	4.5387
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7908	4.7867

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6930	0.6878
US $	1.4429	1.4539

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4900	0.6711
US $	1.0325	0.9686

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2812.05	2787.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.53	72.53

MARKET COMMENTARY:

📈 On this day in 1913, the ratification of the 16th Amendment to the Constitution established Congress’s right to enact a federal income tax.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.1%, or 291.34 to 25,241.76 in Toronto. The move was the biggest since falling 1.2% on Jan. 10.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 143 of 222 shares fell, while 74 rose.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.7%. Goeasy Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 8.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 10 times. The next day, it declined six times for an average 0.8% and advanced four times for an average 0.7%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.4% below its 52-week high on Jan.30, 2025 and 23.3% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 0.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.02t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.71% compared with 10.22% in the previous session and the average of 11.11% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -150.2854| -1.8| 6/20
Industrials | -81.8661| -2.5| 5/23
Energy | -27.7155| -0.7| 12/28
Information Technology| -19.3302| -0.7| 5/5
Consumer Staples | -13.0182| -1.4| 1/9
Consumer Discretionary| -11.0700| -1.4| 2/9
Real Estate | -7.0815| -1.5| 3/16
Utilities | -6.2991| -0.7| 5/10
Health Care | -0.9633| -1.3| 1/3
Communication Services| 2.7282| 0.5| 3/2
Materials | 23.5457| 0.8| 31/18

================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD |Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -43.1500| -5.7| 197.1| 4.6
RBC | -40.5400| -2.3| 25.7| -0.1
Canadian National | -30.9300| -5.3| 143.5| -1.5
Constellation Software | 9.2460| 1.4| 21.7| 8.4
Waste Connections | 10.2500| 2.1| 95.3| 10.6
Agnico Eagle Mines | | | |
Ltd | 10.8500| 2.3| 89.7| 22.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders trying to catch up on every new headline around President Donald Trump’s tariff negotiations were faced with a renewed bout of volatility across asset classes.
The S&P 500 trimmed most of a slide that earlier approached 2%. That was after Trump agreed to delay 25% tariffs against Mexico for one month, following a conversation with his counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum. The talks spurred a quick turnaround in currencies, with the peso going from worst to best performer among its major counterparts in a matter of minutes.
The dollar almost wiped out a rally that was earlier shaping out to be the best since the onset of the pandemic. Canada’s loonie pared losses.
“This is a very fluid and evolving situation,” said Victoria Greene at G Squared Private Wealth. “For now, our baseline thesis is the bulk of these are transitory and likely more watered down with concessions. We are on top of developments and watching how this may affect earnings, the US dollar and inflation.”
The delay with Mexico bolsters the view that Trump sees tariffs as a negotiating ploy — but is still reluctant to inflict economic pain on Americans. His move to invoke an emergency and impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China is the most extensive act of protectionism taken by a US president in almost a century.
Among the biggest uncertainties is how a resilient US economy would handle the impact of a trade war, in case it materializes. That concern was evident in the bond market, where short-dated Treasury yields climbed as longer ones moved in the opposite direction.
“While we believe that tariffs are primarily a negotiating tool for President Trump, it’s very difficult to say whether these tariffs will be short-lived or if there is a scenario where a deal is struck that reduces the tariffs,” said Yung-Yu Ma at BMO Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 fell 0.8%. While carmakers, chip and industrial shares all bounced from session lows, they continued to lead losses. Defensive groups gained, underscoring the market’s bid for safety. The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps sank 1.7%. The Russell 2000 slipped 1.3%. A UBS Group AG basket of stocks at risk from the proposed tariffs sank 3.1%. Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge — the VIX — topped 18.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.53%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%. The Mexican peso climbed 1.3%. The Canadian dollar fell 0.2%.
To David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management, while tariff announcements could generate volatility, “in our base case we don’t think the Trump administration will take actions that materially dent the outlook for economic or corporate profit growth.”
“At this point, we are doubtful that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be long lasting, if enacted at all,” said Keith Lerner and Michael Skordeles at Truist Advisory Services.
“Nevertheless, until there is clarity on the duration or magnitude of tariffs, these actions inject uncertainty into supply chains and pricing for many companies – large and small – across North America.”
At J.P. Morgan Asset Management, David Kelly says investors have every reason to be concerned about a trade war, which has the potential to impart a stagflationary impulse to the investment environment, boosting inflation and interest rates while dragging on growth and profits.
“If this scenario unfolds, U.S. equities with the highest valuations are likely the most vulnerable while non-US assets and real assets could provide ballast to portfolios,” Kelly said. “Most of all, investors should ensure that they are well diversified and balanced as we head into much stronger and uncertain trade winds.”
“Trade acquiescence is what the US economy needs to skirt turbulence and widen the path toward non-inflationary growth,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “A ramp-up in trade rhetoric and disagreements concerning global commerce will weigh on revenues, costs and margins, challenging corporate America’s ability to grow earnings.”
There’s a risk of a 5% slump in US stocks over the coming months as the latest round of tariffs by the Trump administration crimp earnings forecasts, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
“These announcements have come as a shock to many investors who expected tariffs would only be imposed if trade negotiations failed,” Goldman strategist David Kostin wrote in a note. “Our economists describe the outlook as unclear but believe there is a substantial probability that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be temporary.”
Kostin said that if sustained, the latest tariffs would reduce his S&P 500 earnings forecasts by about 2% to 3%, not accounting for the impact from further tightening in financial conditions or changes in consumer and corporate behavior. He also warned the S&P 500’s fair value could slump about 5% over the near term due to the hit to both earnings and equity valuations.
The onset of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China raises the risk that the S&P 500 will experience at least one 5%-10% drawdown this year, RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina said.
The team is on guard for a pullback early in the year, given positioning, valuations and that the index price remains high, noting note that optimism that tariffs were just a negotiating tactic contributed to the complacency.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson said equity markets had so far been sanguine about the possibility of sustained levies, but that view “is likely to be tested the longer these tariffs stay on.” Hedge funds dumped US equities for a fifth straight week, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage, as the AI threat from China’s DeepSeek and Trump’s promise to impose steep levies on America’s biggest trading partners rippled through markets. The funds ramped up short sales in single stocks and long sales in macro products, the data show.
Retail investors, however, seem to have wagered the president wouldn’t risk the economic and market impact that many predict tariffs will bring. That group poured $2.1 billion into US stocks on Friday, according to an analysis by Emma Wu, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s global quantitative and derivatives strategist. An inflow of more than $2 billion has occurred just nine times in the past three years, with five of those instances already occurring in 2025.

Wall Street on Tariffs:

* Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research: Tariffs represent a negative supply shock. That is, growth weakens while inflation firms up. I don’t think the Fed is hiking into a negative supply shock. Yes, the Fed is worried about inflation expectations, but they also don’t welcome additional labor market cooling. We already know wage growth is slowing. The growth effects will dominate inflation considerations. I would be buying bonds here.
* Emily Roland and Matt Miskin at John Hancock Investment Management:

The impact of the tariffs to us comes back to the US dollar. If the dollar can strengthen it helps the US buy foreign goods cheaper and that can mitigate some of the tariff cost. The dollar can also be a currency that benefits from a risk-off environment while the euro for example tends be more risk-on. A way to potentially hedge tariff risks is by leaning into US dollar exposure.
* Keith Lerner and Michael Skordeles at Truist Advisory Services:

From a stock market perspective, our “Bull in a China shop” outlook title remains fitting. The primary market uptrend remains intact, but the latest tariff developments underscore the potential for disruptions and broken pieces that we expected to be part of the investment narrative in 2025.
* Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer, BMO Wealth Management:

We wouldn’t be too eager to put the bulk of cash on the sidelines to work all at once. The reality of the economic disruption from the tariffs will quickly become apparent, and this is only Round 1 of a Trade War, so being ready for opportunities over the course of a few months is more advisable.
Be patient and opportunistic; there may be a time to be aggressive, but it is not upon us yet.

Corporate Highlights

* Nippon Steel Corp. and United States Steel Corp. claimed former President Joe Biden unfairly prejudged their $14.1 billion merger and gave the companies no chance for feedback on a “sham” national security review before he blocked the deal.
* Tyson Foods Inc.’s quarterly earnings beat even the highest of analyst estimates as stronger chicken profits helped offset losses in its beef business, prompting the company to raise its 2025 profit estimate.
* MicroStrategy Inc. said it didn’t buy any Bitcoin in the prior week, halting a string of 12 consecutive weekly purchases that began in late October.

Key events this week:

* US factory orders, US durable goods, Tuesday
* Alphabet earnings, Tuesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, Philip Jefferson speak, Tuesday
* China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
* Eurozone HCOB Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
* US trade, Wednesday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* UK rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller, Lorie Logan speak, Thursday
* Amazon earnings, Thursday
* US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0296
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2403
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 154.70 per dollar
* The Mexican peso rose 1.3% to 20.4139
* The Canadian dollar fell 0.2% to 1.4569
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.3% to $101,213.53
* Ether fell 6.8% to $2,708.08
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.53%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.39%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $72.89 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,817.29 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Phil Kuntz, Robert Brand, Catherine Bosley and Matthew Burgess.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity.  The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

January 31, 2001: Scottish court sitting in the Netherlands convicted one Libyan and acquitted a second in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. Go to article

These artists are performing at the Grammys
Music’s biggest night is happening Sunday and the lineup of scheduled performers is pretty impressive.

America’s hottest restaurant
Despite a recent restaurant slowdown, this American chain saw its sales increase by a whopping 31% last quarter.

A food fight with chopsticks?
The “prosperity toss” is one of Lunar New Year’s most fun culinary traditions!

A New Zealand mountain has been granted personhood
A mountain in New Zealand considered an ancestor by Indigenous people was recognized as a legal person on Thursday. Read about Mount Taranaki — now known as Taranaki Maunga, its Māori name.

‘Stranger Things’ creators tease new supernatural show set in a retirement community
The brothers behind the hit Netflix show “Stranger Things” shared new details about their upcoming projects.

Newly discovered near-Earth asteroid isn’t an asteroid at all — it’s Elon Musk’s trashed Tesla
Astronomers have retracted the discovery of a new asteroid after realizing the object was the remains of Elon Musk’s Tesla Roadster and its driver “Starman,” which were
launched into space in 2018. Read More.

Are Atlantic Ocean currents weakening? A new study finds no, but other experts aren’t so sure.
A new study suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has not weakened since the 1960s — but there’s no doubt the circulation will slow in the future, experts say. Read More.

Alexander the Great quiz: How well do you know the famous king and conqueror from the ancient world?
How much do you know about Alexander the Great? Read More.

A cosmic ‘CT scan’ shows the universe is far more complex than expected
“This process is like a cosmic CT scan, where we can look through different slices of cosmic history and track how matter clumped together at different epochs.” Read More.

Could we travel to parallel universes?
Let’s explore the possibility of traveling to universes beyond our own — if they so exist, that is. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A robin perched on a tree sings out, his breath visible in the crisp air in Kidderminster, UK
Photograph: Lee Hudson/Alamy Live News

Van, Turkey
A waterfall frozen solid as temperature drops to -15C (5F) at night
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Wehrheim, Germany
A pair of storks are back in their nest after returning from southern regions
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for January 31, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44544.66	-337.47
		-0.75%
S&P 500	6040.53	-30.64
		-0.50%
NASDAQ	19627.44	-54.31
		-0.28%
TSX	25533.10	-275.15
		-1.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39572.49	+58.52
		+0.15%
HANG SENG	Market Closed	N.A.
SENSEX	77500.57	+740.76
		+0.96%
FTSE 100*	8673.96	+27.08
		+0.31%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.065	3.121
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.240	3.291
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5387	4.5325
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7867	4.7764

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6878	0.6898
US $	1.4539	1.4497

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5066	0.6637
US $	1.0363	0.9650

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2787.25	2756.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.53	72.73

MARKET COMMENTARY
📈 On this day in 1940, the U.S. government issued its first monthly Social Security check. The recipient: Ida May Fuller, a 65-year-old retired legal secretary in Ludlow, Vt., who lived another 35 years.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.1% at 25,533.10 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.2% on Jan. 10 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1.3%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 185 of 222 shares fell, while 34 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%. Imperial Oil Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 6.6%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 11 times. The next day, it declined seven times for an average 0.8% and advanced four times for an average 0.7%
* This month, the index rose 3.3%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.3%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 24.8% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.06t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.22% compared with 12.00% in the previous session and the average of 11.08% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -84.7998| -2.0| 1/42
Financials | -59.9976| -0.7| 6/20
Materials | -42.0506| -1.3| 4/44
Industrials | -36.6001| -1.1| 1/27
Information Technology | -24.6896| -0.9| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -15.3976| -1.9| 0/11
Consumer Staples | -5.9506| -0.6| 1/9
Communication Services | -3.1637| -0.5| 2/2
Real Estate | -3.1199| -0.6| 8/12
Health Care | -0.8040| -1.1| 1/3
Utilities | 1.4308| 0.2| 8/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -25.0600| -1.7| 42.9| 10.9
Enbridge | -24.1000| -2.5| 31.9| 3.0
RBC | -14.7700| -0.8| -11.0| 2.2
Algonquin Power | 1.1820| 3.5| 59.1| 1.4
Brookfield Renewable Partners | 2.7710| 6.2| 23.7| -3.0
Celestica | 11.1200| 8.2| 126.7| 35.3
US
By Rita Nazareth and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — Fast-changing news on tariffs flummoxed traders across asset classes Friday, shattering the calm spurred earlier by receding anxieties around the tech sector.
A White House assertion that President Donald Trump plans to impose levies on China, Mexico and Canada this weekend sent the dollar up as stocks got hit.
The S&P 500 erased a rally that approached 1%.
The greenback notched its best week since November, with the WhiteHouse saying Trump intends to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as a 10% levy on China Saturday.
The US also denied a news report that the president planned to delay the implementation by a month, which earlier drove the dollar marginally lower.
The loonie lost 0.2% while the peso was little changed.
Oil came under intense volatility.
Speaking Friday, Trump said he would impose tariffs on a wide range of imports in the coming months, including steel, aluminum, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, as well as semiconductors, ramping up his threats to hit trading partners with new levies.
“Bulls have tried their best to keep calm and carry on through all the turbulence this week, but the pressure of uncertainty keeps them from peacefully grazing on stocks,” said Max Gokhman at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions.
“Going into the weekend it seems like even staff closest to the Oval Office don’t have all the details and so some bulls are going back to the barn to sit out a likely storm.”
The slide in equities came after a relatively positive start to the day, with the market briefly erasing losses that were driven by concern that a cheap artificial intelligence-model from Chinese startup DeepSeek could make valuations of the booming technology tough to justify.
The market barely budged after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in line with estimates, though it still remained well above the central bank’s 2% target.
Traders have had to contend with “headline ping-pong similar to 2017/2019 as various outlets publish various unsourced stories which the administration quickly refutes, leading to wild whipsaw price action,” said Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets.
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 0.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.8%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.55%.
With four of the Magnificent Seven’s earnings behind us, investors may be sighing with relief that neither DeepSeek angst nor serious signs of a slowdown in overall demand emerged.
The implications for tech earnings are profound, with hundreds of billions of dollars in capital spending deployed but profits still largely elusive.
The ramifications are also immense for a stock market that spent the better part of two years rallying almost solely on the promise of AI.
US big tech stocks are set to become the “Lagnificent 7” this year, Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett warned, suggesting investors should buy cheap international stocks instead of chasing pricey US shares.
The strategist, who coined the popular “Magnificent Seven” term to refer to the handful of tech stocks that powered the S&P 500’s 70% rally since late-2022, said investors have become overexposed to US equities after they attracted record inflows in January.
“US exceptionalism now exceptionally expensive, exceptionally well-owned,” the strategist wrote.
“‘Magnificent 7’ becomes ‘Lagnificent 7,’ supports broadening of US and global equity and credit markets.”
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., this week’s developments have put at least somewhat of a lid on the earnings growth than can be expected on the AI phenomenon.
“It is our opinion that it’s not going to take very long before the stock market will need to adjust to the idea that although the AI phenomenon could/should continue to be a positive factor, it’s likely that it’s not going to be as powerful as the market has been pricing-in over the past six months,” Maley noted.
Slowing demand growth for artificial intelligence chips, coupled with the entry of DeepSeek, will dominate the narrative when Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Qualcomm Inc. and Arm Holdings Plc report results.
Alphabet Inc. will also face questions on how it will mitigate the costs of developing its AI tools in light of DeepSeek’s performance and lower cost.
Still, strong demand for cloud services will buoy result for the Google owner and its Magnificent Seven counterpart Amazon.com Inc.
“DeepSeek remains a major theme,” said John Belton at Gabelli Funds.
“It is clear that DeepSeek did achieve some exciting engineering breakthroughs which will help other AI labs build models more efficiently.
But many headline figures associated with these breakthroughs are misleading.
This is more evolutionary than revolutionary, and consistent with natural/normal tech progress where we’d expect compute efficiencies over time.”
DeepSeek’s emergence roiled markets earlier this week, but investors see limited scope for the Chinese artificial intelligence startup to dent the performance of the Magnificent Seven, the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey showed.
Of the 260 respondents, 88% said the debut of the startup’s latest model — which wiped $784 billion from the S&P 500 on Monday — will have little to no impact on the shares of the US technology behemoths in coming weeks.
Few are cutting their exposure to the S&P 500, an index dominated by the massive tech companies.
Retail traders poured $8.1 billion into US stocks in the week through Wednesday — the most in two years, according to an analysis by Emma Wu, JPMorgan’s global quantitative and derivatives strategist.
This week’s exchange-traded fund flows made up half of the imbalance at $4.6 billion while single stocks accounted for slightly less than half of the retail imbalance at $3.5 billion.
“We expect the greater efficiency from new, lower-cost algorithms to lead to increased economic productivity, which is supportive of the broader equity market,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“In addition to these potential productivity gains, we believe the combination of solid US economic activity, healthy earnings growth, lower borrowing costs, and the potential for greater capital market activity will lead stocks higher over the balance of 2025.”
The firm sees the S&P 500 reaching 6,600 by the end of the year.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. gave a reassuring revenue forecast for the current quarter, helping boost shares of the world’s most valuable company after its holiday results showed jarring declines for China and the iPhone.
* Intel Corp. issued a revenue forecast for the current period that fell short of analysts’ expectations.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. beat earnings estimates as strong production growth cushioned the drop in oil prices and refining margins, easing investor concerns about an increase in capital spending.
* Chevron Corp. raised dividends by 5% even as profit underperformed expectations amid shrinking crude prices and fuel-making margins.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. suspended the quarterly dividend it’s paid for the past 92 years in a bid to conserve cash and revive the business.
* AstraZeneca Plc abandoned plans to invest £450 million ($558 million) in a UK vaccine manufacturing plant, following protracted wrangling with the new Labour government over the level of state funding for the site.
* AbbVie Inc. rose the most in just over four years after it forecast 2025 earnings above Wall Street’s average expectation as two key medicines gained ground.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0378
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2402
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 155.07 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $101,645.36
* Ether rose 1.9% to $3,307.89
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.55%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.46%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $73.15 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,800.83 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Phil Kuntz, Martin Keohan, Margaryta Kirakosian, Sujata Rao and Chiranjivi Chakraborty.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone. 💛

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Be true to your work, your word, and your friend. –Henry David Thoreau, 1817-1862.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com