Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a Bloomberg Invest Conference “Unlocking Opportunity Across Markets” in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

March 4, 1841: Longest US presidential inauguration speech (8,443 words) by William Henry Harrison
March 4, 1933, the start of President Roosevelt’s first administration brought with it the first woman to serve in the Cabinet: Labor Secretary Frances Perkins.
March 4, 1987: President Ronald Reagan addressed the nation on the Iran-Contra affair, acknowledging his overtures to Iran had “deteriorated” into an arms-for-hostages deal. Go to article

Sunrise on the moon captured by Blue Ghost spacecraft after NASA and Firefly Aerospace announce successful lunar landing
The Blue Ghost spacecraft has taken its first images of the lunar surface as Firefly Aerospace and NASA celebrate a successful moon landing.

‘Cosmic Horseshoe’ may contain black hole the size of 36 billion suns — one of the largest ever detected
The “Cosmic Horseshoe” is an Einstein ring, a system made up of a foreground galaxy whose mass is so great, it warps the light from a galaxy behind it. Now, astronomers know where it gets this mass from.

Fortifications older than the Great Wall of China discovered in Chinese mountain pass
A 2,800-year-old fortified wall has been found in a narrow mountain pass in China.

When did modern humans reach each of the 7 continents?
Ideas about the global dispersal of Homo sapiens have changed over time.

1,500-year-old skeleton found in chains in Jerusalem was a female ‘extreme ascetic’
Archaeologists were surprised that the skeleton of a person wrapped in heavy chains was female.

Why can’t you tickle yourself?
Why do we laugh when tickled but are unable to tickle ourselves? Neuroscience has the answer. Read More.

Daylight saving time 2025: When does the time change, and why?
Here’s a look at when the time changes this year, and why we change our clocks in the first place. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
Daffodils bloom in early spring sunshine, with the London Eye in the background
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

London, UK
Deer make their way across Heron Pond at sunrise on a frosty spring morning in Bushy Park, south-west London
Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

Hakkâri, Turkey
A maintenance engineer fixes problems with an electricity pylon covered in snow and ice caused by harsh winter conditions.
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for March 4, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42520.99	-670.25
		-1.55%
S&P 500	5778.15	-71.57
		-1.22%
NASDAQ	18285.16	-65.03
		-0.35%
TSX	24572.00	-429.57
		-1.72%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37331.18	-454.29
		-1.20%
HANG SENG	22941.77	-64.50
		-0.28%
SENSEX	72989.94	-96.00
		-0.13%
FTSE 100*	8759.00	-112.31
		-1.27%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.938	2.834
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.181	3.067
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2442	4.1551
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5376	4.4493

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6937	0.6896
US $	1.4416	1.4502

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5308	0.6533
US $	1.0617	0.9418

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2880.70	2834.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.26	69.76

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1957, Standard & Poor’s Corp. introduced a new stock index, which it initially called the “Standard ‘500’ Index.” Now known as the S&P 500, the index uses a “scientific weighting formula” that enables investors to measure the movement in the total value of most of America’s major stocks.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.7%, or 429.57 to 24,572.00 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.2% on Dec. 18.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 143 of 220 shares fell, while 71 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.9%.
Aritzia Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.1%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss two times. The next day, it declined after both occasions
* This quarter, the index fell 0.6%
* The index advanced 14% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 14.5% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.5% in the past 5 days and fell 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.07% compared with 12.13% in the previous session and the average of 11.11% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -228.6179| -2.8| 5/20
Information Technology| -68.8686| -2.7| 4/6
Industrials | -55.6408| -1.8| 4/24
Energy | -48.1168| -1.2| 16/26
Materials | -8.5008| -0.3| 19/27
Consumer Discretionary| -8.4281| -1.0| 3/8
Utilities | -6.3161| -0.7| 4/10
Consumer Staples | -5.3964| -0.6| 0/10
Communication Services| -0.8786| -0.1| 2/3
Health Care | 0.0405| 0.1| 2/1
Real Estate | 1.1449| 0.2| 12/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -64.8900| -3.9| 11.3| -5.9
Shopify | -62.1600| -4.7| 42.1| -3.8
Brookfield Corp | -44.3400| -5.4| 126.8| -6.1
Canadian Natural Resources | 3.4030| 0.6| 130.1| -12.2
Intact Financial | 3.7520| 1.1| -6.2| 10.1
Kinross Gold | 4.2230| 3.1| -6.0| 20.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed in late hours after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that there may be some tariff relief after a selloff that shook markets around the globe.
Frantic moves lashed markets all day, both up and down, as sentiment shifted quickly amid uncertainty around Donald Trump’s trade war.
US shares were particularly volatile, first plunging, then recovering, and falling anew at session’s end.
After the close, word Trump was considering a compromise with Mexico and Canada sparked a late-day rally, with a $611 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) signaling a rebound.
The US could announce a pathway for tariff relief on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by North America’s free trade agreement as soon as Wednesday, Lutnick told Fox Business.
He added that tariffs would likely land “somewhere in the middle,” with Trump “moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way.”
From New York to London and Tokyo, equities sank Tuesday —with the S&P 500 returning to pre-election levels on concerns about the impacts of a trade war on the economy.
The US imposed the largest set of new tariffs in nearly a century, slapping levies on a broad swath of goods from China, Canada and Mexico that spurred swift reprisals.
The moves — before President Donald Trump’s address Tuesday night to Congress — mark a new phase in his broadening economic and diplomatic reset of America’s place in the world.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projected confidence in the tariff plans — even as the stock market slumped.
If Wall Street learned one thing during Trump’s first term as president, it’s that the stock market is a way he keeps score.
The theory was that the president’s penchant for using equities as a report card meant any policy that rattled markets would cause him to revise the plans.
But with stocks tanking, investment pros started to question if there’s a “Trump Put” after all.
“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”
To Nancy Tengler at Laffer Tengler Investments, while it’s “always excruciating” to be in the middle of a market correction — this is essentially what she think is currently happening.
The S&P 500 has now dropped about 6% from its record high.
“This time, of course, it’s spurred by the tariffs,” she noted.
“And I think we have to analyze not just what the tariffs will be, but how long we think they’re going to last. If it is short lived, this is just an opportunity to buy stocks for the long term.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.2%.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 1.6%.
A gauge of the Magnificent Seven megacaps dropped 0.7%.
The Russell 2000 slipped 1.1%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose nine basis points to 4.24%.
A dollar gauge slid 0.6%.
Clark Geranen at CalBay Investments says it’s extremely difficult for investors to make investing decisions off of tariff news, and they should avoid making any drastic portfolio moves at this stage.
“While Tuesday’s tariffs are a go, it remains very unclear on just how long these tariffs will remain,” he said.
“We tend to believe these are more of a negotiation tactic and not the start of a long and drawn out reciprocal trade war. Still, in these situations, investors sell first and ask questions later.”
At Miller Tabak, Matt Maley notes that the market — and several of its key stocks — are becoming “quite oversold.”
“So, even though we are still looking for a deep correction at some point this year, it won’t come in a straight line,” Maley said.
“We have been saying for a while now that investors should ‘sell the rallies’ — and we still feel this way. But we just might get a bounce sooner than many people are thinking.”
“On a short-term basis, while we wait for the markets to bottom, the next leg lower could prove sinister,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“So folks should remain on guard for some big moves in our opinion.”
He noted that while the “buy side” has done a good deal of paring down their technology exposures, they remain overweight US equities in general – which comes alongside some of the heaviest positioning seen on the retail side in years.
“This again presents a good deal of potential firepower in the event that selling pressure gains more momentum from here,” Wantrobski added.
“We have not seen any signs of panic yet, and selling has been rather orderly.”
With S&P 500 within a striking distance of its 200-day moving average, Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG says he’s been receiving an increasing amount of questions as to whether we are near a bottom.
“The question we have isn’t whether or not we bounce at the 200-DMA, it’s what happens after the bounce?” Krinsky said.
“Investors have become accustomed to ‘V-shaped’ recoveries. While we aren’t opposed to that outcome, we do want to at least be open to the possibility that we see more of a ‘W-shaped’ bottom with a bounce and re-test later this month.”
Trend following Commodity Trading Advisors are partly responsible for US stocks declining last week.
There’s more bad news after the S&P 500 began March deep in the red: CTAs are under pressure to keep selling no matter which way the market goes over the next week.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates the cohort already sold about $23 billion of global stocks last week.
However, they still have about $137 billion in long positions.
“We have this cohort modeled as sellers of SPX in every scenario over the next week,” Cullen Morgan, equity derivatives and flows specialist, wrote in a note.
A Goldman Sachs measure of risk appetite has turned negative for the first time since October amid concerns around a slowing economy.
Those worries have hit the US harder than the rest of the world, strategist Andrea Ferrario says, suggesting international markets could extend their outperformance.
Sentiment around S&P 500 earnings is now “very negative” even as companies enjoyed a strong fourth-quarter reporting season, the strategist writes in a note.
Meanwhile, the outlook for profits in other developed markets remains positive.

Corporate Highlights:
* CrowdStrike Holding Inc., a cybersecurity company, issued a worse-than-expected earnings outlook, signaling that it may still be struggling to recover from a flawed software update that crashed millions of computers globally last year.
* Google is urging officials at President Donald Trump’s Justice Department to back away from a push to break up the search engine company, citing national security concerns, according to people familiar with the discussions.
* Apple Inc. rolled out a new iPad Air along with a redesigned keyboard accessory and an upgraded low-end tablet, enhancing devices that helped lift holiday sales despite an iPhone slump.
* Mars Inc. is talking to investors on Tuesday about selling around $26 billion of bonds to help finance its purchase of Kellanova, according to people with knowledge of the matter, in what would be the biggest US corporate bond sale of the year.
* Bankers are working on funding packages of around $12 billion for Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. to back a potential take- private deal by Sycamore Partners, in what would be one of the largest leverage buyout debt deals since the great financial crisis.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. moved closer to winning dismissal of a long-running lawsuit in which the US government claims the company overbilled Medicare by at least $2.1 billion.
* Target Corp. is projecting little to no sales growth this year, a concerning sign for a big-box retailer that’s struggling to shake off a lengthy slump.
* Best Buy Co. said shoppers will remain constrained by inflation this year as it forecast that annual sales could be little changed.
* A BlackRock Inc.-led consortium agreed to buy control of key ports near the Panama Canal from Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. after pressure from US President Donald Trump to limit Chinese interests in the region.
* Aramco plans to trim the world’s biggest dividend, lowering a key source of funds for Saudi Arabia’s budget while relieving stress on its own finances.

Key events this week:
* China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
* Eurozone HCOB services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
* US ADP employment, ISM services index, factory orders, Wednesday
* Fed’s Beige Book, Wednesday
* Eurozone retail sales, ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US trade, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
* US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks, Thursday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic speak, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US jobs report, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives keynote speech at an event in New York hosted by University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 1.2% to $1.0611
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.2786
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 149.06 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $86,867.92
* Ether rose 1% to $2,132.09
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose nine basis points to 4.24%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.53%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,918.40 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Isabelle Lee, Margaryta Kirakosian, Julien Ponthus, Sujata Rao, Aya Wagatsuma, Martin Keohan and Phil Kuntz.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” A painting is finished when the artist says it is finished.”– Rembrandt Harmensz Van Rijn
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
Carolann is away from the office for a Bloomberg Invest Conference “Unlocking Opportunity Across Markets” in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

March 3, 1585: The Olympic Theatre, designed by Andrea Palladio, is inaugurated in Vicenza.
March 3, 1863: Abraham Lincoln approves charter for National Academy of Sciences
March 3, 1969: Apollo 9 was launched on a mission to test the lunar module that was used in the moon landings. Go to article
March 3, 2005: Steve Fossett becomes the first person to fly an airplane non-stop around the world solo without refueling.

1955: Elvis Presley’s first TV appearance.
Alexander Graham Bell, inventor, b. 1847.

‘Planet parade’ photo captures 7 planets in a line over Earth — possibly for the 1st time ever
A stunning photo of a “parade of planets”, shows Mars, Jupiter, Uranus, Saturn, Venus, Neptune, and Mercury in alignment from Earth. The image could be the first of its kind.

20,000-year-old evidence of ancient ‘vehicles’ discovered in New Mexico
Ancient footprints and drag marks at White Sands National Park in New Mexico suggest the earliest known Americans dragged wooden travois-like vehicles.

Scientists discover never-before-seen type of brain cell
A new study has pinpointed cells in the brains of mice that have the unique ability to proliferate and may help to repair damaged tissue. Scientists now need to determine if similar cells exist in human brains

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Gangneung, South Korea
A road curves through snow-covered hills and mountains
Photograph: Yonhap/EPA

Hangzhou, China
Plum blossoms flower at a wetland park in eastern China’s Zhejiang province
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Konosu, Japan
An event celebrating Hinamatsuri, a traditional festival dedicated to girls, plays host to 1,605 traditional Japanese dolls
Photograph: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters
Market Closes for March 3^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43191.24	-649.67
		-1.48%
S&P 500	5849.72	-104.78
		-1.76%
NASDAQ	18350.19	-497.09
		-2.64%
TSX	25001.57	-391.88
		-1.54%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37785.47	+629.97
		+1.70%
HANG SENG	23006.27	+64.95
		+0.28%
SENSEX	73085.94	-112.16
		-0.15%
FTSE 100*	8871.31	+61.57
		+0.70%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.834	2.899
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.067	3.124
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1551	4.2082
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4493	4.4894

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6896	0.6923
US $	1.4502	1.4444

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5198	0.6580
US $	1.0481	0.9541

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2834.55	2880.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.76	69.76

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1901, John Pierpont Morgan announced that he was organizing the largest-ever corporation in the world by merging his Federal Steel conglomerate with Andrew Carnegie’s Carnegie Co.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.5% at 25,001.57 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.2% on Dec. 18 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1.1%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 160 of 220 shares fell, while 58 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.6%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest drop, falling 13.0%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss four times. The next day, it declined three times for an average 1.3% and advanced 0.8% once
* This quarter, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.4% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 16.5% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and fell 1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 15.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.1t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.13% compared with 11.22% in the previous session and the average of 10.99% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -125.2496| -3.0| 2/40
Information Technology| -100.9884| -3.8| 2/8
Financials | -69.2026| -0.8| 5/20
Industrials | -46.4978| -1.5| 4/24
Materials | -37.1543| -1.2| 15/34
Consumer Staples | -10.0180| -1.1| 3/7
Consumer Discretionary| -8.2961| -1.0| 2/9
Utilities | -0.4830| -0.1| 6/9
Health Care | -0.2304| -0.3| 2/2
Real Estate | 1.4875| 0.3| 14/5
Communication Services| 4.7569| 0.8| 3/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -63.6900| -4.6| 24.6| 1.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -31.0700| -5.1| 101.6| -12.7
Suncor | -24.9400| -5.1| 171.6| 2.4
BCE | 3.3900| 1.6| -18.5| 1.9
GFL Environmental | 3.6400| 3.3| 67.4| 5.3
Waste Connections | 7.1650| 1.4| -3.7| 12.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — More tepid economic news and a pledge by Donald Trump to push through tariffs on top trading partners stressed Wall Street risk tolerances anew, sending bonds up and stocks to their biggest loss of the year.
The S&P 500 lost nearly 2% as the US president said Mexico and Canada would be unable to negotiate a reprieve from tariffs set to take effect Tuesday.
The loonie and the peso slipped.
The White House later said Trump also signed an order doubling a tariff on China to 20%.
A plunge in big tech weighed heavily on equities, which were also hit by weak manufacturing data.
Stocks erased their Friday runup to push the S&P 500 almost 5% below a record high from Feb. 19.
The gauge has alternated between gains and losses of at least 1.5% for three sessions, a stretch of violent reversals not seen since March 2020.
Monday’s data was the latest in a slew of disappointing economic reports showing weaker housing, rising unemployment claims and a drop in personal spending.
Crypto, a key proxy for risk in post-election markets, tumbled a day after surging when Trump stepped up calls for a digital-asset stockpile.
“It’s time to be nervous,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management. “Not bearish, but nervous. While there isn’t enough evidence to think we’re on the cusp of a deep pullback, the economy is changing quickly. The headlines are so unrelenting that people don’t know what to do.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.8%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 2.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%.
A gauge of the Magnificent Seven shares sank 3.1%.
The Russell 2000 lost 2.8%.
A UBS basket of US stocks negatively impacted by tariffs slipped 2.9%.
The drop in US shares was in sharp contrast to Europe, where equities staged one of their strongest advances of 2025.
The moves extended an international rotation trade that has held sway most of the year.
Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge — the VIX — hit the highest since December.
All megacaps slipped, with Nvidia Corp. down 8.7%.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. plans to invest an additional $100 billion in US plants that will boost its chip output on American soil and support Trump’s goal of increasing domestic manufacturing.
Oil sank as OPEC+ will proceed with plans to revive halted production amid pressure from Trump to lower prices.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell five basis points to 4.16%.
A dollar gauge slid 0.4%.
Bitcoin tumbled 9.5%.
To David Kostin at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., any S&P 500 recovery attempt is likely to prove temporary amid economic worries.
Investor exposure declined last week, but it isn’t low enough yet to suggest “tactical upside as a result of depressed positioning,” he said.
“An improvement in the US economic growth outlook will be required to fully reverse the recent equity-market weakness.
“Markets have been expressing growing concerns about a potential slowdown in the US,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“The message of caution needs to be heard, and depending on Friday’s payroll, this deteriorating macro momentum could cap markets’ progression.”
Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner says he lacks conviction that demand for US stocks is high enough to sustain a rebound.
The tactical flow specialist turned bearish last month amid fading inflows from retail and other supportive buyers.
He notes that while the market is in the final stages of a clearing event for positioning, he’s “not ready” to sound an all-clear yet.
Instead, he recommends investors be “nimble on highest conviction quality themes.”
In a note to clients, Rubner said March 14 “sticks out” to him as a potential low in stocks, with history suggesting that the first half of the month “typically chops around.”
In a backdrop of some softening economic indicators and continuing uncertainty around tariffs, a rotation out of US big tech is likely to continue, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka.
The strategists say the rotation out of growth and into value style should help international markets, which are more value-dominated.
Still, US market will probably benefit from animal spirits and deregulation, while the US usually holds up better than other regions in risk-off periods.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson said equities are likely to be more sensitive to economic growth than to a pullback in bond yields.
US earnings estimates don’t fully reflect potential risks from President Trump’s proposed tariffs, according to Citigroup strategists led by Scott Chronert wrote.
Still, the outlook is more optimistic when viewed at the single-stock and sector level, they say.
“A high-level emphasis on index earnings and related valuations can be misleading. As we head further into ’25, the moniker that it’s a market of stocks not a stock market may take on growing importance, particularly as Trump policy impacts become clearer,” they said.
Equity markets around the world are trouncing US stocks in early 2025, an ominous historical signal for how the rest of the year could shape up for US investors.
If history’s a guide, that could mean further relative weakness for US stocks in the months ahead.
The S&P 500 has never outperformed global peers on an annual basis when it has trailed the international benchmark by more than 2.8 percentage points by mid-February, as it did this year, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis studying 35 years of data.
The underperformance is “a rare and historically significant red flag against a full-year recovery as the market’s fundamentals deteriorate,” according to BI strategists Gina Martin Adams and Gillian Wolff, who conducted the analysis.

Corporate Highlights:
* Sunnova Energy International Inc. plunged as the company warned there’s substantial doubt it will remain in business.
* Kroger Co. replaced Chief Executive Officer Rodney McMullen following an investigation into his personal conduct, casting a shadow on the supermarket operator’s path forward following a failed deal and a string of management departures under the longtime leader.
* AbbVie Inc. agreed to pay as much as $2.2 billion for a next- generation obesity drug from Danish biotech Gubra A/S, marking its entry into the hyper-competitive weight-loss market.
* Tether Holdings SA, issuer of the biggest stablecoin cryptocurrency, said its longtime chief financial officer and controlling shareholder Giancarlo Devasini will transition into a new role as chairman of the firm.
* Philip Morris International Inc. is exploring a potential sale of its cigar business in the US, people familiar with the matter said, as the tobacco maker continues its shift toward smoke-free products.
* Allegro Microsystems Inc. is drawing takeover interest from larger competitor ON Semiconductor Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone unemployment, Tuesday
* President Donald Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress, Tuesday
* China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
* Eurozone HCOB services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
* US ADP employment, ISM services index, factory orders, Wednesday
* Fed’s Beige Book, Wednesday
* Eurozone retail sales, ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US trade, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
* US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks, Thursday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic speak, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US jobs report, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives keynote speech at an event in New York hosted by University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 3.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 1% to $1.0483
* The British pound rose 1% to $1.2699
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 149.47 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 9.5% to $85,314.51
* Ether fell 16% to $2,110.13
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $68.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,890.91 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Isabelle Lee, Margaryta Kirakosian and Catherine Bosley.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” To create one’s world in any of the arts takes courage.”– Georgia O’Keeffe

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

February 28, 1972 President Richard M. Nixon and Chinese Premier Chou En-lai issued the Shanghai Communique at the conclusion of Nixon’s historic visit to China, a step toward the eventual normalization of relations between the two countries.  Go to article
February 28, 1986: Olaf Palme, Prime Minister of Sweden, assassinated.
February 28, 2013: researchers at Duke University successfully connect the brains of two rats, allowing direct sharing of information, a pioneering step in brain-to-brain communication.

Mystery of how man’s brain turned to glass after Vesuvius eruption possibly solved
The new study on the “glass brain” from Herculaneum is the latest episode in a long-running academic dispute. Read More.

Next ice age would hit Earth in 11,000 years if it weren’t for climate change, scientists say
Scientists have determined exactly how Earth’s orbit and tilt affect glaciation and deglaciation, based on the length of these parameters’ cycles and clues hidden at the bottom of the ocean. Read More.

‘It’s extremely worrisome’: NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope faces potential 20% budget cut just 4 years after launch
Such a dramatic cut to a flagship space telescope still in its prime will be felt across the mission’s entire operations, affecting science. Read More.

New ‘Ocelot’ quantum processor inspired by Schrödinger’s cat could scale up quantum computers by massively slashing errors
AWS’s first-ever quantum chip uses “cat qubits” to reduce errors exponentially as more qubits are added to a system. Scientists say it will lead to scalable and efficient quantum computers. Read More.

Most powerful cosmic rays in the universe start shockingly close to Earth, paper claims
The most powerful cosmic rays in the universe currently have no explanation. New research suggests that exotic, self-annihilating particles in our own galaxy may hold the answer. Read More.

CNN looks back on Gene Hackman’s life and work
Oscar-winning actor Gene Hackman and his wife were found dead in their home Wednesday under “suspicious” circumstances. Watch this video to learn about his life and legacy.

When does Ramadan officially start?
Roughly a quarter of the world’s population is expected to head into Ramadan this weekend but the official start time could vary. Learn more about the Islamic holy month.

The world’s smallest park is the size of four pieces of paper
A park in Japan, roughly the size of four sheets of A4 paper, was recently crowned the world’s smallest! See a photo here.

Oldest known Holocaust survivor dies at age 113
Rose Girone, the oldest known Holocaust survivor who endured both German and Japanese oppression but lived for eight decades beyond the end of World War II, has died at age 113.

A new poll indicates that some Americans feel buyer’s remorse about voting for President Donald Trump.
On Thursday’s “Late Show,” Stephen Colbert pointed out that it’s mainly because, after more than a month in office, Trump has yet to eliminate inflation, as he promised during his campaign to do on Day 1.
“That was his claim. He said it over and over again, and now, on Day 38, they still think things are too expensive. Somewhere in Delaware, Joe Biden is shaking his head, chuckling to himself, and thinking, ‘Why did I come into this room?’ ” — STEPHEN COLBERT

“It’s getting so expensive — this is true — that here in New York, some bodegas are selling individual eggs, known as ‘loosie’ eggs, to customers who can’t afford full cartons. Yum, loose egg! And if you can’t afford those, there’s a guy in the alley in the back.” — STEPHEN COLBERT
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

São Paulo, Brazil
Nur, the first polar bear cub born in Latin America, walks towards her mother, Aurora, at the São Paulo aquarium.
Photograph: Isaac Fontana/EPA

Volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula – Svartsengi, Reykjanes, Iceland
Gold in the nature photojournalism category
Photograph: Ael Kermarec/World Nature Photography awards

​​​​​​​Hyalite Lake – Montana, US
Gold in the planet earth’s landscapes and environments category
Photograph: Jake Mosher/World Nature Photography awards
Market Closes for February 28, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43840.91	+601.41
		+1.39%
S&P 500	5954.50	+92.93
		+1.59%
NASDAQ	18847.28	+302.86
		+1.63%
TSX	25393.45	+265.21
		+1.63%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37155.50	-1100.67
		-2.88%
HANG SENG	22941.32	-776.97
		-3.28%
SENSEX	73198.10	-1414.33
		-1.90%
FTSE 100*	8809.74	+53.53
		+0.61%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.899	2.965
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.124	3.180
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2082	4.2314
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4894	4.5102

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6923	0.6925
US $	1.4444	1.4439

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5000	0.6666
US $	1.0386	0.9629

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2880.80	2901.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.76	70.35

Market Commentary:
Money is usually attracted, not pursued. –Jim Rohn, 1930-2009.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.1% at 25,393.45 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since Feb. 5 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.8%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Pembina Pipeline Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.1%.
Today, 138 of 220 shares rose, while 76 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 15 times. The next day, it advanced nine times for an average 0.3% and declined six times for an average 0.6%
* This month, the index fell 0.5%
* So far this week, the index rose 1%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Jan. 24
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.9% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 19.3% above its low on Feb. 29, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.06t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.22% compared with 11.09% in the previous session and the average of 10.99% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 106.6072| 1.3| 19/4
Energy | 52.5839| 1.3| 24/18
Industrials | 51.2413| 1.6| 19/9
Materials | 18.6187| 0.6| 28/18
Information Technology | 15.1760| 0.6| 3/7
Consumer Staples | 10.9071| 1.2| 4/6
Utilities | 9.0775| 1.0| 15/0
Consumer Discretionary | 2.4783| 0.3| 7/4
Real Estate | 1.5472| 0.3| 17/3
Health Care | -0.4178| -0.6| 1/3
Communication Services | -2.6215| -0.4| 1/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 44.2500| 2.7| 14.2| -1.4
Enbridge | 23.5200| 2.6| 28.9| 1.3
Shopify | 16.7500| 1.2| 29.6| 5.9
Stella-Jones | -1.2610| -4.4| 98.5| -2.8
BCE | -2.3030| -1.1| -38.9| 0.3
CGI Inc | -13.3200| -5.9| 303.7| -4.6
US
By Rita Nazareth, Isabelle Lee, Emily Graffeo and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — Stocks shook off another bout of volatility spurred by geopolitical anxiety and a White House shouting match to rally at the end of a jittery February.
Equities rebounded after being hit with several twists and turns.
Plans to sign a minerals deal between the US and Ukraine were scrapped as Donald Trump’s meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskiy devolved into a fiery exchange.
Trump later said Zelenskiy can come back when he’s ready for peace.
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Mexico has proposed matching US tariffs on China and urged Canada to do the same, signaling a potential path to avert levies.
Wall Street traders have seen a rise in equity swings amid a set of risks ranging from an economic slowdown, geopolitics, a trade war and artificial-intelligence valuations.
“We think the bull market is intact,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management. “But we have also cautioned that volatility would likely be higher this year. Therefore, we have been highlighting that short-term hedges may be worth considering.”
To Jay Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, while the market was rattled by the US-Ukraine headlines, the indication is that Trump will force peace – which is positive.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., with so many different comments coming out of the White House, it’s hard for investors to have a lot of confidence on the near-term outlook.
“This is a fragile market,” said Adam Phillips at EP Wealth Advisors.
“The anxiety is clear in the market’s behavior and we’re hearing it in the voices of many clients as well. The market is struggling for direction today, but we’re bracing for additional volatility ahead as we await clarity on a long and growing list of issues.”
The S&P 500 rose 1.6%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell five basis points to 4.21%.
A dollar gauge gained 0.3%.
Traders also watched closely a slew of headlines on tariffs.
“I do think one very interesting proposal that the Mexican government has made is perhaps matching the US on our China tariffs,” Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“I think it would be a nice gesture if the Canadians did it also, so in a way we could have ‘Fortress North America’ from the flood of Chinese imports,” he said.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows there is no clear consensus on the odds of the Mexico and Canada tariffs going into effect next week.
The median guess was 50% odds, but the distribution of responses is fairly flat. Responses are even evenly split above and below 50% odds.
“Net net, no consensus,” wrote Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V.
He also noted that 68% of the investors polled think the recent market selloff was mostly or entirely due to tariffs.
Wall Street also got a degree of relief after data showed inflation isn’t heating up — with traders looking past a worrisome decline in consumer spending to focus on prospects for Fed policy easing.
The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.3% from December.
From a year ago, it increased 2.6%, matching the smallest annual increase since early 2021.
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell 0.5%, marking the biggest monthly decline in almost four years.
“While additional rate cuts are still probably many months away, we believe this report helps to keep one or two rate cuts on the table for 2025,” said Robert Ruggirello at Brave Eagle Wealth Management.
“We believe that inflation is yesterday’s problem and that the data will continue to improve going forward.”
To David Russell at TradeStation, the PCE report provides a “little comfort” after the worrisome print on consumer prices.
“The drop in personal spending confirms the negative retail sales data we got earlier, suggesting the economy started 2025 on a soft footing,” he said.
“Combined with the weak data so far in February, growth is becoming more of a concern for Wall Street. The consumer may finally be throwing in the towel.”
Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management says he’s very cautious on the market given the high current valuations, the high policy uncertainty companies are forced to navigate and a consensus belief that recession risk is non-existent (or extremely low).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Sees Economy Shrinking After Friday Data “Softer consumer spending and slower income growth should catch the Fed’s attention,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“Despite the deceleration in the annual pace of inflation, the monthly rate is still running hotter than the Fed would like.”
Roach says investors will continue to focus on the uncertain growth trajectory as real spending unexpectedly fall in January from weaker consumer demand.
“The odds are rising that the Fed’s next rate cut will be in June,” he said.
“Whether the next cut happens then or in July is less relevant than the number of cuts by end of year.
The current macro backdrop suggests only two cuts in total this year but more in 2026.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. is signaling the end of the line for Skype, the iconic internet calling and chat service it bought almost 14 years ago.
* Bath & Body Works Inc., a retailer of personal care products, was upgraded at Citigroup Inc. in the wake of the company’s results.
* Redfin Corp., an online real estate company, reported fourth- quarter results that were weaker than expected on key metrics and gave an outlook that is seen as disappointing.
* Rocket Lab USA Inc. delayed the launch of its Neutron rocket to the second half of the year and issued a revenue forecast for the first quarter which fell short of estimates. This prompted analysts to either lower or place their price targets under review.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0373
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2579
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 150.52 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $84,138.87
* Ether fell 2.9% to $2,214.34
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.21%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.41%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.48%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $70.06 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $2,854.71 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Margaryta Kirakosian, John Viljoen and Chiranjivi Chakraborty.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Excellence is never an accident.  It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution;
it represents the wise choice of many alternatives – choice, not chance, determines your destiny. – Aristotle, 384 BCE-332 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
February 27, 1932: James Chadwick discovers the neutron, a fundamental particle in atomic nuclei, advancing the field of nuclear physics.
On Feb. 27, 1991, President George H.W. Bush declared that “Kuwait is liberated, Iraq’s army is defeated,” and announced that the allies would suspend combat operations at midnight. Go to article

Henry W. Longfellow, poet, b.1807.
Rudolph Steiner, philosopher, b.1861.
Elizabeht Taylor, actress, b.1932
Ralph Nader, advocate, b. 1934

Rare fresco discovered in Pompeii shows type of woman who ‘breaks free from male order to dance freely, go hunting and eat raw meat in the mountains’
Archaeologists have brought to light an enormous fresco depicting a secretive cult practice in Pompeii. Read More.

‘Utterly cataclysmic’: James Webb telescope spots 2 alien planets disintegrating before our eyes
In world-first observations, the James Webb Space Telescope is watching two distant alien planets “spilling their guts into space” as they rapidly disintegrate —
and scientists are elated at what they’ve found. Read More.

Chinese scientists reveal plans for near-invisible stealth missiles that could ‘redefine modern warfare’
Chinese scientists claim to have found a new way of injecting helium into rocket engines, which could be used to make missiles that are much harder to detect or intercept. The new technology was allegedly inspired by the faulty spacecraft that “stranded” NASA astronauts on the ISS last year. Read More.

Western travelers visit North Korea
CNN’s Will Ripley spoke to Western social media influencers who visited North Korea on recent trips. Here’s what they saw.

A high-stakes moon mission
A spacecraft built by Houston-based Intuitive Machines will soon attempt to land closer to the moon’s south pole than any vehicle has traveled before! Read about the mission.

Nvidia doubled profits in 2024. And its outlook is rosy despite AI jitters
Chipmaker Nvidia achieved stunning sales and profit growth as it closed out 2024. The company expects its sales to grow 65% year-over-year to $43 billion in the current quarter, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

The internet is raving about ‘nature’s Botox’
Many beauty enthusiasts have turned to ingredients you’d usually find in the food aisle as a way to hydrate the skin and reduce acne. But does it work?

Time is money
An Indian man was awarded damages in a legal case against the country’s biggest movie theater chain after he complained that it showed too many commercials before a movie.

Thieves target freight trains in California and Arizona deserts
More than $2 million worth of Nike sneakers were recently stolen in a string of freight train heists. Many of the shoes haven’t even hit the retail market yet.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Christchurch, New Zealand
Jacob Ryan, aka Yikes, puts the finishing touches on an 11-storey mural, part of Flare 2025, a street art festival. Nearly two dozen artists are taking part in the 11-day event
Photograph: PJ Heller/Zuma Press Wire/Rex/Shutterstock

A hopeful red fox hunts in a snowy field in Kars, Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Flamingoes feed at a beach in Kuwait City, Kuwait
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 27, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43239.50	-193.62
		-0.45%
S&P 500	5861.57	-94.49
		-1.59%
NASDAQ	18544.42	-530.84
		-2.78%
TSX	25128.24	-200.13
		-0.79%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37248.74	-1007.43
		-2.63%
HANG SENG	23616.18	-102.11
		-0.43%
SENSEX	74612.43	+10.31
		+0.01%
FTSE 100*	8756.21	+24.75
		+0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.965	2.981
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.180	3.181
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2314	4.2696
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5102	4.5206

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6925	0.6970
US $	1.4439	1.4347

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5007	0.6664
US $	1.0393	0.9622

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2901.00	2933.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.35	68.62

Market Commentary:
Who would you be and what would you do if you weren’t afraid? –David Brooks, b.1961.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 25,128.24 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Jan. 17 after the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.9%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 9.0%.
Today, 163 of 220 shares fell, while 56 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 1.6%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.9% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 18.3% above its low on Feb. 28, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.5% in the past 5 days and fell 0.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.09t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.09% compared with 10.80% in the previous session and the average of 11.00% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -68.0747| -2.1| 6/43
Financials | -58.6517| -0.7| 10/15
Information Technology | -34.3806| -1.3| 1/9
Industrials | -26.3231| -0.8| 5/23
Utilities | -6.3633| -0.7| 4/10
Real Estate | -5.3077| -1.1| 2/18
Consumer Staples | -4.4833| -0.5| 2/8
Health Care | -0.7116| -1.0| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | -0.4513| -0.1| 3/8
Communication Services | 0.1333| 0.0| 0/5
Energy | 4.4886| 0.1| 22/21
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -48.6100| -2.9| 58.4| -3.9
Shopify | -21.0000| -1.5| -29.1| 4.6
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -13.4300| -2.7| -0.2| 22.0
Enbridge | 5.1920| 0.6| -54.2| -1.2
Restaurant Brands | 6.1730| 3.0| 73.4| 0.5
TD Bank | 7.4770| 0.7| 26.9| 12.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A selloff in the stock market’s most-influential group drove the Nasdaq 100 to its lowest level since November as Nvidia Corp.’s results failed to revive the artificial-intelligence rally.
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, erasing its gains for 2025.
Mega caps bore the brunt of the selling as good-but-not-great numbers from Nvidia Corp. disappointed investors.
The chipmaker sank 8.5%.
The dollar rose as Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are on track to go into place March 4, and he’d impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports.
CTAs to Sell US Stocks in Every Scenario Again: Equity Insight
“Nvidia’s earnings were good, but they did not do a lot do lessen the growing fears that the earnings from the AI market will not be as strong as investors had been thinking,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“The quotes out of Washington, DC continue to create decent sized intraday moves in the markets.”
All the uneasiness around the actual impact of potential US tariffs on things like trade, the economy, inflation and even geopolitics kept Wall Street traders on their toes.
And there was no major relief from Thursday’s big batch of economic data released in the run-up to a key inflation reading.
The US economy advanced at a healthy pace and inflation was more stubborn than initially estimated at the end of 2024.
Gross domestic product increased at an unrevised 2.3% annualized pace in the fourth quarter.
The primary growth engine — consumer spending — advanced at a 4.2% pace.
“Investors want lower rates from the Fed, but they don’t want to get there by seeing a notable deterioration in the underlying economy,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“At the very least, if the economy is going to slow, investors will want to see inflation slow down too.”
The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.8%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.45%.
A gauge of the Magnificent Seven mega caps sank 3%.
The Russell 2000 slipped 1.6%.
In late hours, Dell Technologies Inc. gave a bullish outlook.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.27%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.6%.
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased, according to the latest Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 20.2 percentage points to 60.6%.
Bullish sentiment dropped to 19.4% while neutral sentiment decreased to 20%, the AAII survey showed.
“AAII data on investor sentiment showed both an extremely high level of bearishness and a rapid increase in that metric,”
said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “Historically, high levels of bearishness tend to lead to strong returns, but these
levels are unprecedented with stocks near recent highs.”
Bespoke also said that large spikes in bearishness during bull cycles have better precedent and more mixed implications for forward returns.
As some of the world’s largest companies report earnings, one topic is dominating the conversation: tariffs.
The topic has come up about 700 times during quarterly earnings calls for S&P 500 companies — a grouping of the world’s largest publicly traded businesses — according to a Bloomberg News analysis of transcripts.
That’s an all-time high in data going back to 2005 and slightly above the number seen in 2018, when President Trump first enacted tariffs.
“You do not only have uncertainty here in the United States, but you have a lot of uncertainty in terms of relationships with other countries, impact on markets,” said Dan Ivascyn at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“And that’s creating not only a lot of localized volatility but volatility across countries, across sectors, across yield curves and that’s a great opportunity as well.”
Ivascyn thinks the key theme going into this year is to have a “healthy degree of humility around the uncertainty”.
“Acknowledge the uncertainty, but look to take advantage of the full global opportunity set, both within the liquid higher quality areas of the market, as well as in some of the more credit sensitive areas as well,” he noted.
US Inflation, Spending Data to Show January Chill – Nowcasts
Traders also geared up for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, which is expected to cool to the slowest pace since June, but glacial progress on taming price pressures overall will keep policymakers cautious about lowering interest rates further.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index — which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs — probably rose 2.6% in the year through January in Commerce Department data due on Friday.
Overall PCE inflation likely eased on an annual basis as well, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“Indications that price pressures may be catching a second wind even before the potential impact of additional tariffs should send a cautionary message about the near-term inflation outlook,” said Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. is seeking approval to offer ride-hailing services in California, a key step by Elon Musk’s company to begin carrying paying customers while its traditional car-selling business falters.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. is in talks to lead a roughly $35 billion financing package for Meta Platforms Inc. to help develop data centers in the US, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud unit has built its first quantum- computing chip, joining a growing roster of technology companies showing off futuristic hardware.
* B. Riley Financial Inc. lined up new funding to replace Nomura Holdings Inc., erasing what’s left of a loan tied to an ill- fated buyout deal that has hobbled the brokerage and investment firm.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. rose after a report that a potential take-private deal from Sycamore Partners would lead to a breakup of the drugstore chain.
* Peanut butter and jelly maker JM Smucker Co. increased full- year profit guidance, offering a view that’s more optimistic than what Wall Street anticipated.
* Snowflake Inc. projected better-than-expected revenue growth for the fiscal year, sending an optimistic signal about the adoption of its recently launched products for artificial intelligence.
* Toronto-Dominion Bank beat estimates on better-than-expected wealth-management and capital-markets results, capping off an earnings season that saw all of Canada’s big banks benefit from higher trading activity.
* Royal Bank of Canada beat estimates on higher results in its capital-markets and wealth-management divisions as both units benefited from strong markets.
* Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce came ahead of analyst expectations with gains across all segments, particularly with strength in the capital markets business.
* Elliott Investment Management is ramping up pressure on BP Plc after its new strategy fell short of the activist investor’s expectations, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Key events this week:
* Japan Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
* US PCE inflation, income and spending, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.8% to $1.0403
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2608
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 149.71 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $83,386.43
* Ether fell 3.7% to $2,254.21
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.41%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.51%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.2% to $70.16 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.5% to $2,873.85 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Margaryta Kirakosian, John Viljoen and Divya Patil.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending. –C.S. Lewis, 1898-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
February 26,1991: The world’s first web browser, WorldWideWeb (later renamed Nexus), is presented to the public by British computer scientist Tim Berners-Lee, laying the foundation for the modern internet.
On Feb. 26, 1993, a bomb exploded in the garage of New York’s World Trade Center, killing six people and injuring more than 1,000 others. Go to article.

Victor  Hugo, writer, b. 1802.
Johnny Cash, musician, b. 932.

1848: Communist Manifesto published.
1919: Grand Canyon National Park established.

Reintroducing wolves to Yellowstone helped entire ecosystem thrive, 20-year study finds
A new study calculates the long-term effects of reintroducing wolves to Yellowstone National Park in the 1990s, which ultimately helped willow shrubs that feed wildlife in stream habitats. Read More.

Mars was once a ‘vacation-style’ beach planet, Chinese rover scans reveal
China’s Zhurong rover has found evidence of an ancient shoreline buried deep beneath the planet. That could point to an ocean, a beach, and to life. Read More.

Blue Ghost spacecraft captures rare, stunning views of Earth eclipsing the moon
Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost spacecraft took some unique photos of our home planet on its Mission 1 flight to the moon in late January and early February. The spacecraft is now in orbit around the moon, with a planned landing date of March 2. Read More.

Scientists create world’s 1st chip that can protect data in the age of quantum computing attacks
Scientists in Switzerland have developed a new method to improve internet security against quantum computing attacks, using quantum-resistant encryption and a new type of hardware. Read More.

Why is Mars red?
A study suggests Mars takes its red hue from a type of mineral that forms in cool water, which could reveal insights about whether the planet was ever able to support life.

China’s ‘Puppy Mountain’ goes viral
You’ve probably seen clouds that look like animals. But have you seen a mountain that looks like a puppy? View the photo here.

Ultrarunner breaks 48-hour treadmill world record
Endurance athlete Sophie Power broke the world record for the most distance covered by a woman on a treadmill in 48 hours!
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Swimmers gather to practise stand-up paddleboarding at Copacabana beach
Photograph: Andre Coelho/EPA

Antarctica
Turkish scientists conduct studies on the human impact on aquatic ecosystems, during the 9th national Antarctic science expedition
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Leeds, UK
Sunrise at Woodlesford lock as the Canal & River Trust charity calls for more volunteers to help look after 2,000 miles of canals, river navigations, historic bridges and aqueducts across the country.
(This image was taken using a graduated neutral density filter.)
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA
Market Closes for February 26, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43433.12	-188.04
		-0.43%
S&P 500	5956.06	+0.81
		+0.01%
NASDAQ	19075.26	+48.87
		+0.26%
TSX	25328.37	+124.39
		+0.49%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38170.18	+27.81
		+0.07%
HANG SENG	23787.93	+753.91
		+3.27%
SENSEX	74602.12	+147.71
		+0.20%
FTSE 100*	8731.46	+62.79
		+0.72%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.981	2.994
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.181	3.196
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2696	4.2868
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5206	4.5433

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6970	0.6989
US $	1.4347	1.4307

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5036	0.6651
US $	1.0480	0.9542

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2933.25	2931.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.62	69.26

Market Commentary:
I never attempt to make money on the stock market.  I buy (shares) on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.-Warren Buffett.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.5%, or 124.38 to 25,328.36 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.6% on Feb. 18.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 149 of 220 shares rose, while 69 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 0.8%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.1% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 19.2% above its low on Feb. 28, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.2% in the past 5 days and fell 0.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 18.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.07t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.80% compared with 10.95% in the previous session and the average of 11.00% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 51.6836| 1.6| 40/9
Information Technology | 42.8720| 1.6| 7/3
Financials | 14.4850| 0.2| 21/3
Industrials | 8.7543| 0.3| 17/11
Energy | 5.2748| 0.1| 19/24
Consumer Discretionary | 4.6394| 0.6| 7/4
Real Estate | 2.5137| 0.5| 17/3
Utilities | 1.2981| 0.1| 9/5
Health Care | 0.6309| 0.9| 3/1
Consumer Staples | -2.2709| -0.2| 8/2
Communication Services | -5.5014| -0.9| 1/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 31.9700| 2.4| -29.2| 6.2
Bank of Nova Scotia| 8.5500| 1.4| 15.4| -6.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 8.2980| 1.7| -29.5| 25.4
BCE | -4.2850| -2.0| -25.6| 0.7
Couche-Tard | -8.0670| -2.1| -23.4| -11.6
National Bank of Canada | -18.7700| -5.5| 107.4| -8.1
US
By Rita Nazareth, Denitsa Tsekova, Isabelle Lee and Lu Wang
(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest technology shares whipsawed in late hours as traders weighed Nvidia Corp.’s earnings.
A $330 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fluctuated after the close of regular trading.
The giant chipmaker that’s seen as a barometer for AI gave a bullish revenue forecast for the current quarter, but the shares failed to hold gains.
In the run-up to Nvidia’s results, stocks churned as traders processed a barrage of statements from President Donald Trump on trade policy.
Bonds climbed after a solid $44 billion auction of seven-year notes.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.4%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell four basis points to 4.25%.
The dollar rose 0.1%.
The dominance of big tech made life miserable for stock pickers in recent years.
With the group reaching a double-digit drop from its peak, opportunities to uncover the next market vanguards have arisen, says Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett.
Shalett sees “money to be made” in owning standouts within financial services, domestic industrials, energy and materials mining companies, as well as consumer services like media and entertainment.
She also likes health care, one of last year’s worst laggards, pointing to interesting generative AI applications for the sector.
Stock pickers are holding their smallest allocations of mega cap names since the global financial crisis, boosting their funds’ performance in a year that has kicked off with a slide in technology shares.
That under-allocation is turning out to be a blessing in disguise.
With the so-called Magnificent Seven faltering this year, active investors’ are seeing a performance boost: Roughly 49% of actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that compare themselves to the S&P 500 are beating the index in 2025, according to Morningstar Direct. That’s up from 38% during the same time last year and far above the 17% outperformance level of the last decade.
US stock gains are likely to continue broadening beyond the technology sector, according to Savita Subramanian at Bank of America Corp.
“There are a lot of attractive opportunities within the S&P 500 that may not be the Magnificent Seven,” the strategist told Bloomberg Television.
“The theme is not necessarily ‘rest of world over US,’ but broadening trends outside of just mega cap tech.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Salesforce Inc. gave a fiscal-year revenue forecast that fell short of estimates, dimming optimism for the company’s new artificial intelligence product.
* eBay Inc. projected sales for the current quarter that missed analysts’ estimates, suggesting shoppers keep finding alternatives to the e-commerce pioneer.
* Snowflake Inc. projected better-than-expected revenue growth for the fiscal year, sending an optimistic signal about the adoption of its recently launched products for artificial intelligence. The shares jumped in extended trading.
* Super Micro Computer Inc. soared after it submitted outstanding financial reports to become compliant with Nasdaq Inc. rules, easing concerns that the server maker would be delisted.
* Two short sellers released reports on AppLovin Corp., touching off a record rout of as much as 23% before the shares pared losses.
** AppLovin’s Chief Executive Officer, Adam Foroughi, said in a blog post that the reports “are littered with inaccuracies and false assertions.”
* General Motors Co. plans to step up its program of buybacks by repurchasing $6 billion in shares and raising its dividend, rewarding investors by pushing more cash off its balance sheet.
* Lowe’s Cos. forecast sales to rise this year, an early sign that consumers are starting to spend again after staying on the sidelines due to higher rates.
* Chevron Corp. is interested in buying Phillips 66’s stake in a chemicals joint venture that activist Elliott Investment Management LP is pushing the oil refiner to exit, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Off-price retailer TJX Cos. reported positive quarterly results, rebounding after its TJ Maxx and Marshalls brands saw softer-than-anticipated sales last quarter.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* US GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Jeff Schmid, Beth Hammack, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
* US PCE inflation, income and spending, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0487
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2676
* The Japanese yen was unchanged at 149.03 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.1% to $84,209.1
* Ether fell 7.3% to $2,327.21
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $68.78 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, John Viljoen, Sujata Rao, Alice Gledhill and Winnie Hsu.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Easy choices, hard life.
Hard choices, easy life. -Jerzy Gregorek, b. 1954.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

February 25, 1836: Samuel Colt is granted a United States patent for his revolver firearm, revolutionizing personal weaponry and manufacturing.
February 25, 1901: United States Steel Corp. was incorporated by J.P. Morgan. Go to article.
February 25, 1932: Adolph Hitler gets German citizenship.
February 25, 1964: Cassius Clay (Muhammad Ali) becomes heavy weight champ.

Auguste Renoir, artist, b. 1841.
George Harrison, musician, b. 1943.

‘Nailed-head ritual’ in Iron Age Spain was more ‘complex than initially thought,’ severed skulls reveal
An analysis of the origins of seven severed skulls with nails through them shows that some people treated this way in Iron Age Spain were local while others came from afar. Read More.

Ancient DNA reveals mysterious origins of the Huns who sacked Rome
The origin of the Huns in fourth-century Europe has long been debated, but centuries-old DNA has revealed their diverse backgrounds. Read More.

‘That’s Zero Folks!’: Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a hazard
The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 rose and fell last week. NASA’s impact odds are now so slim that the asteroid is no longer a hazard on the Torino asteroid scale. Read More.

Dogs may have domesticated themselves because they really liked snacks, model suggests
Competing theories explain how dogs came to be domesticated from wolves. Now, a new study adds further support to the idea that they domesticated themselves. Read More.

‘Math Olympics’ has a new contender — Google’s AI now ‘better than human gold medalists’ at solving geometry problems
Google’s second generation of its AI mathematics system combines a language model with a symbolic engine to solve complex geometry problems better than International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) gold medalists.  Read More.

Lester Holt is stepping down as anchor of ‘NBC Nightly News’
Lester Holt, the trusted face of “NBC Nightly News” for the past decade, is stepping down from the newscast.

Sony World Photography Awards 2025: The year’s best images unveiled
Spanning categories including landscape, still life, and the environment, the annual competition’s professional awards will see one finalist named Photographer of the Year.

Hello, Claude
Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic said its new Claude 3.7 Sonnet model can display its step-by-step reasoning process, among other updates. Learn more about the tool’s “extended thinking mode.”
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Norfolk, UK
‘This beautiful kingfisher was diving between rocks on the groyne to catch small prey. Quite an unusual site in the middle of the holiday season in Sheringham.’
Photograph: Jane Crossen

Somerset, UK
‘A moment of calm at Clevedon pier.’
Photograph: Sofoulis Iacovou

Seagulls pose for the camera at the Baltic Sea in Scharbeutz, northern Germany
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for February 25, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43621.16	+159.95
		+0.37%
S&P 500	5955.25	-28.00
		-0.47%
NASDAQ	19026.39	-260.54
		-1.35%
TSX	25203.98	+52.72
		+0.21%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37836.17	-401.62
		-1.05%
HANG SENG	23034.02	-307.59
		-1.32%
SENSEX	74602.12	+147.71
		+0.20%
FTSE 100*	8668.67	+9.69
		+0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	2.994	3.073
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.196	3.272
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2868	4.3868
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5433	4.6424

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6989	0.7005
US $	1.4307	1.4275

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5049	0.6645
US $	1.0518	0.9507

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2931.90	2934.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.26	70.91

Market Commentary:
Money is made by sitting, not trading. –Jesse Livermore, 1877-1940.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.2%, or 52.72 to 25,203.98 in Toronto.
Bank of Montreal contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.7%.
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. had the largest increase, rising 54.8%.
Today, 104 of 220 shares rose, while 111 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 1.3%
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.6% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 18.7% above its low on Feb. 28, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.7% in the past 5 days and fell 1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.06t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.95% compared with 10.95% in the previous session and the average of 11.01% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 66.0834| 0.8| 13/12
Industrials | 29.0544| 0.9| 16/10
Consumer Staples | 14.1330| 1.5| 8/2
Utilities | 9.8557| 1.0| 9/6
Real Estate | 7.2521| 1.5| 17/2
Consumer Discretionary | 3.8089| 0.5| 7/4
Communication Services | 2.7051| 0.4| 3/2
Health Care | 1.1714| 1.7| 3/1
Materials | -5.3647| -0.2| 16/31
Energy | -25.1090| -0.6| 8/35
Information Technology | -50.8548| -1.9| 4/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Bank of Montreal | 34.4800| 4.7| 62.5| 6.8
RBC | 15.3800| 0.9| 15.9| -1.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 13.2800| 1.9| -8.4| 6.5
Bank of Nova Scotia| -7.2420| -1.2| 51.5| -7.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.3220| -1.5| 144.9| -7.0
Shopify | -49.7400| -3.6| 0.5| 3.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at a five-week low and bonds surged as another disappointing reading on the US consumer fueled concern about the health of the world’s largest economy.
Another slide in the Nasdaq 100 pushed its four-day loss to around 5%, the most since early September.
A gauge of mega caps extended a plunge from its peak to more than 10% – passing the threshold that meets the definition of a correction.
Selling was heaviest in speculative corners of the market, with a 6% slide in Bitcoin spurring a plunge in exchange-traded funds specializing in crypto.
A rally in Treasuries drove 10-year yields to their lowest levels in 2025.
US consumer confidence fell the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy.
The data followed recent disappointments on the retail, services and housing fronts.
That’s prompted traders to boost their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year even as inflation pressures seem to be intensifying.
“The market seems more worried about growth than inflation,” said Chris Verrone at Strategas.
At Brown Brothers Harriman, Elias Haddad says “red flags are emerging,” and another month or two of weak US data would deliver “a blow to the US exceptionalism narrative.
” To Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services, while the primary stock-market uptrend remains intact and recession risks remain relatively low, the near-term risk/reward appears more mixed.
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps sank 2.2%.
On the eve of Nvidia Corp.’s results, the shares lost 2.8%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries sank 11 basis points to 4.29%.
Money markets are now pricing in more than two quarter-point reductions by the Fed in 2025.
A dollar gauge slid 0.2%.
Wall Street Gamblers Get Crushed as Leveraged ETF Losses Hit 40%
“Markets have suddenly begun declining on fears over a slowdown in growth. Wasn’t everyone just worried about too-strong growth and higher inflation a couple of weeks ago?” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“We would also note that three of the five Fed manufacturing reports released in February were all in growth territory. So not all the news is bad. The economic outlook is uncertain, but isn’t it always?”
To Jeff Roach at LPL Financial, consumers are increasingly nervous about the unknown impacts from potential tariffs and could pull forward consumer demand as they anticipate higher prices for imports in the near future.
One note of caution from Roach: Consumer surveys are much more volatile than the hard data of retail sales.
That means the Fed will not likely change their stance on monetary policy at the next couple meetings, according to the economist.
Inflation expectations over the coming year increased to the highest since May 2023.
Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell have signaled they’re keeping interest rates steady until progress on inflation resumes.
“Consumer confidence continues to come off its election-fueled sugar high from November,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Economic uncertainty remains elevated, whether that’s around tariffs or more US-centric data like inflation or retail sales.”
That’s why this week’s reading on prices will be key.
The Fed’s preferred inflation metric is expected to cool to the slowest pace since June.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index — which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs — probably rose 2.6% in the year through January in Commerce Department data due on Friday.
Overall PCE inflation likely eased on an annual basis as well.
“Investors should keep an eye on this week’s PCE report,” said Kenwell.
“It will give another clue as to how consumers are feeling about their purchasing power. An in-line or lower reading may act as a relief catalyst for consumers and investors alike.”
Before that, traders will be wading through Nvidia’s earnings.
They will arrive at a critical juncture, with US stocks vulnerable from a technical and systematic standpoint.
Not only have equities rejected a move beyond their all- time highs, the market is also in a state of vulnerability from three of its biggest drivers.
Retail flows are fading, trend followers are estimated to be sellers in every scenario and option flows are unfavorable.
Nvidia Results to Show the Status of AI Build-Out: Preview “There are fewer volatility buffers in place to stabilize the market” and a weak print from Nvidia could just be the catalyst “we need to send volatility significantly higher,”  the option strategists at Tier 1 Alpha said.
Nvidia’s numbers are the most closely watched barometer of the AI boom.
Investors also will be looking for signs that the company is transitioning smoothly to its new Blackwell design from the older Hopper lineup.
The shift may cause customers to slow purchases until there’s better availability of the new products, according to some analysts.
In Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings report, investors will examine not only whether the chipmaker beats projections for earnings, revenues, and units sold, but will also listen closely to what chief Jensen Huang says about the company’s prospects going forward, according to Mary Ann Bartels at Sanctuary Wealth.
There’s growing “suspicion” among investors about the scope for more S&P 500 gains at a time when European and Chinese stocks are outperforming, according to Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett.
“The longer it takes and the harder it is for the S&P to get to new highs, the doubts grow,” Hartnett said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
He has recommended international equities over US peers this year as he expects the Magnificent Seven mega caps to wobble.
While he said investors are far from pessimistic about big tech, these stocks are vulnerable to declines if the trade “doesn’t keep working.”

Corporate Highlights:
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. shares fell after a report that Republican Senator Charles Grassley is launching an inquiry into the insurer’s Medicare billing practices.
* Home Depot Inc. expects a key sales metric to return to growth this year, though the retailer cautioned that housing demand won’t change significantly in the near term.
* Nvidia Corp., the top provider of chips used in new artificial intelligence computers, is extending a partnership with networking-gear maker Cisco Systems Inc. in a push aimed at making it easier for corporations to deploy AI systems.
* ASM International NV’s first-quarter revenue forecast beat estimates as an artificial intelligence boom drives demand for the Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker’s products.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. predicted growth in earnings and transaction margins in coming years, as its new leadership continues to streamline the sprawling business.
* Eli Lilly & Co. is ramping up the fight against cheaper, copycat versions of Zepbound by lowering prices for a version of its blockbuster obesity drug.
* Krispy Kreme Inc.’s net revenue forecast disappointed. The company is weighing refranchising some of its businesses in international markets even as it expands its distribution network in the US, Chief Executive Officer Josh Charlesworth said.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. is closing three video-game studios and halting work on a highly anticipated Wonder Woman title in a bid to boost the profitability of its interactive entertainment business.
* Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia kicked off Canadian bank earnings season with strong results from their capital- markets divisions amid an increase in trading activity.

Key events this week:
* US new home sales, Wednesday
* Nvidia earnings, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* US GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Jeff Schmid, Beth Hammack, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
* US PCE inflation, income and spending, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0517
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2672
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 148.94 per dollar

* Bitcoin fell 6% to $88,329.46
* Ether fell 5.5% to $2,491.99
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 4.29%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.46%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.51%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $69.10 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.3% to $2,913.65 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova, Cecile Gutscher, Sujata Rao, Robert Brand and Aya Wagatsuma.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
I do not know anyone who has got to the top without hard work.  That is the recipe.  It will not always get you to the top, but should get you pretty near. -Margaret Thatcher, 1925-2013.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday. ☺
February 24, 1582: The Gregorian Calendar is introduced by Pope Gregory XIII, reforming the Julian calendar and leading to the system most widely used today.
February 24, 1821: Mexico declared its independence from Spain. Go to article.

George Harrison, musician, b. 1943
Steve Jobs, founder of Appe, b.1955.

‘Just the tip of the iceberg’: Why risky asteroids like 2024 YR4 will pester Earth for decades to come
The world is watching as NASA tweaks the odds that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth. But how threatening is YR4, and how does it compare to other potentially hazardous space rocks? Read More.

Humanoid ‘Protoclone’ robot twitches into action while hanging from ceiling in viral video
Protoclone, an eerily lifelike humanoid robot built for home use, has left social media users aghast. And it’s likely to be the first of many. Read More.

Muscular kangaroos aren’t the only daunting creatures Down Under. Wait until you learn about the cassowary — a massive bird as tall as a person with a large dagger-like claw on each foot

Adults may want to consider revisiting their childhood hobbies, according to a psychologist
There’s a reason you feel drawn to your childhood activities. And you might be surprised at the benefits playfulness adds to your life.

New York Mets’ Juan Soto hits 426-foot homer after signing biggest contract in American sports
Juan Soto’s first at-bat for the New York Mets gave some indication as to why they signed him to one of the biggest contracts in American sports history.

Why there’s an upside-down American flag hanging in Yosemite
The flag was reportedly hung over the side of El Capitan as a sign of protest by employees at Yosemite National Park. Here’s what we know.

MSNBC cancels Joy Reid’s evening show in major programming shakeup
Co-hosts from MSNBC’s “The Weekend” are expected to take over Joy Reid’s 7 p.m. evening timeslot.

RIP Roberta Flack

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Antequera, Spain
Hudson Bay wolves in an enclosure at the Lobo Park near Malaga. Iberian, European and Hudson Bay wolves live in huge enclosures at the park
Photograph: Jorge Guerrero/AFP/Getty

Birmingham, UK
Birmingham Royal Ballet dancers during a dress rehearsal at the Hippodrome
Photograph: Katja Ogrin/Getty Images

Bordeaux, France
A visitor attends the preview of Egypt of the Pharaohs, an exhibition at Bassins des Lumières, the largest digital art centre in the world
Photograph: Philippe Lopez/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 24, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43461.21	+33.19
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5983.25	-29.88
		-0.50%
NASDAQ	19286.93	-237.08
		-1.21%
TSX	25151.26	+4.23
		+0.02%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38170.50	-606.44
		-1.56%
HANG SENG	23341.61	-136.31
		-0.58%
SENSEX	74454.41	-856.65
		-1.14%
FTSE 100*	8658.98	-0.39
		—

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.073	3.108
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.272	3.296
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3868	4.4313
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6424	4.6785

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7005	0.7025
US $	1.4275	1.4234

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4933	0.6696
US $	1.0461	0.9559

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2934.15	2932.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.91	70.58

Market Commentary:
Always sell half o a double. –Yale Hirsch, 1923-2021.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 25,151.26 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.4%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 5 of 11 sectors gained; 121 of 220 shares rose, while 97 fell.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
Eldorado Gold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 5.7%.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 1.5%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 18.4% above its low on Feb. 28, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.3% in the past 5 days and fell 1.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.06t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.95% compared with 11.38% in the previous session and the average of 11.04% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 22.6485| 0.7| 30/19
Consumer Staples | 17.5706| 1.9| 10/0
Consumer Discretionary | 15.1242| 1.9| 10/1
Communication Services | 3.9456| 0.6| 5/0
Financials | 2.2788| 0.0| 18/7
Real Estate | -1.3831| -0.3| 8/11
Health Care | -1.6040| -2.2| 1/3
Information Technology | -3.6055| -0.1| 5/5
Utilities | -3.6745| -0.4| 4/11
Industrials | -15.6729| -0.5| 20/8
Energy | -31.3921| -0.8| 10/32
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 8.0520| 1.7| -20.3| 23.7
Dollarama | 7.7690| 2.8| 36.4| 5.0
Restaurant Brands | 5.4470| 2.7| 9.9| -2.8
Brookfield Corp | -11.3600| -1.4| -15.2| 0.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -11.3900| -1.8| 191.9| -5.6
Canadian National | -14.5900| -2.5| 28.4| -1.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A slide in most mega caps hit stocks in the final stretch of US trading, with Wall Street gearing up for a pulse check from Nvidia Corp. on the artificial-intelligence technology that has powered the bull market.
The S&P 500 broke below 6,000 and the Nasdaq 100 lost over 1%.
Just days before Nvidia’s earnings, hedge funds’ net exposure to “Magnificent Seven” mega caps hit the lowest since April 2023.
The chipmaker lost 3.1%.
Microsoft Corp. fell as an analyst said the software giant dropped some AI data-center leases.
Apple Inc. rose.
Just ahead of Nvidia’s results Wednesday, hedge funds’ net exposure to “Magnificent Seven” mega caps hit the lowest since April 2023.
Investors have started to boost bets that volatility will come back as Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday could be the first in a whirlwind of events with the potential to send the market into conniptions.
“There is very little room for Nvidia to disappoint analyst profit expectations this year, given its assumed leadership position in AI, already elevated valuations, and new developments and entrants in the space that could threaten its dominance over time,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
The S&P 500 lost 0.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average wavered.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid three basis points to 4.4%.
Bonds remained higher after a $69 billion sale of two-year notes drew record demand.
Canada’s dollar and Mexico’s peso fell as President Donald Trump expects tariffs planned to take effect on both countries to go ahead next month.
“The market is churning sideways, driven by investor confusion, a natural consolidation period following recent gains, and seasonal weakness in February,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“However, the strong macro backdrop, robust earnings, and healthy fund flows argue for a breakout to the upside once momentum returns.”
Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains very elevated heading into Nvidia’s earnings release due this week, in the 97th percentile and well above levels implied by earnings growth, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte.
Fourth-quarter earnings are on pace to significantly exceed earnings estimates across capitalizations — nearly doubling the pre-season forecasts — but it hasn’t been enough to satisfy investors as stocks are responding with unusually sour returns, according to Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“Disappointments in guidance, revisions and operating margin all share the blame,” the strategists noted.
“Nvidia could still move the needle as the large-cap season wraps up.”
US equities won’t remain unpopular for long given the robust outlook for economic growth and corporate earnings, according to some of Wall Street’s top strategists.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson — a bearish voice on US stocks until mid-2024 — said he expects capital to return to US stocks, calling the S&P 500 “the highest quality index” with “the best earnings growth prospects.”
“It’s premature to conclude the rotation away from the US is sustainable,” Wilson wrote in a note.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Mislav Matejka said a more subdued outlook for big tech was indeed a “meaningful impediment” for a renewed US outperformance more broadly.
However, US earnings growth would need to undershoot the rest of the world to support an outright bearish view, he added.
“Recent economic and survey data do raise some warning flags, but S&P 500 companies delivered strong growth along with continued record profitability last quarter,” said Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“Fundamentals will ultimately win out, but waning sentiment could well lead broad equity indexes sideways for a little while.”
Following double-digit returns for US equities over the past two years, and with valuations now incredibly expensive, investors are increasingly concerned about whether markets have peaked, according to Christian Floro at Principal Asset Management.
“Bull markets don’t just die of old age, however, and history suggests that the Federal Reserve tends to play an outsized role in determining the prevailing market regime based on its monetary policy stance,” he noted.
Most market selloffs larger than 10% since 1965 were triggered by either the Fed pivoting aggressively to a hawkish stance or the Fed staying restrictive for too long, he said.
Floro noted that the current macroeconomic landscape differs meaningfully from past market peaks, particularly as data show little sign of a hard landing.
“A narrow but viable path remains for markets to grind higher, especially if earnings growth continues to deliver as expected,” he noted.
“However, uncertainty around future policy decisions poses a significant risk.  Prudent investors should remain vigilant, balancing optimism with a strategic approach to risk in today’s evolving market environment.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc., as it seeks relief from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods imported from China, said that it will hire 20,000 new workers and produce AI servers in the US.
* Microsoft Corp. has canceled some leases for US data center capacity, according to TD Cowen, raising broader concerns over whether it’s securing more AI computing capacity than it needs in the long term.
* Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s operating earnings surged 71% in the fourth quarter, as higher interest rates lifted the conglomerate’s investment income and its insurance business improved.
* Starbucks Corp. is eliminating 1,100 corporate jobs in a move aimed at increasing efficiency and quickly enacting changes to revitalize the company.
* Domino’s Pizza Inc.’s US sales rose less than expected in the fourth quarter, highlighting the mounting challenge to appeal to cash-strapped Americans.
* Boeing Co. has hired an adviser to market a defense subsidiary that manufactures small, long-range military drones as the plane maker looks to unload businesses that aren’t central to its core commercial and defense operations, according to people familiar with the talks.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. agreed to buy Bridge Investment Group Holdings Inc. for about $1.5 billion in an all-stock deal as the asset manager expands in real estate.
* Strategy, the self-styled Bitcoin treasury company that until recently was known as MicroStrategy, said it acquired $1.99 billion more of the cryptocurrency with the proceeds from last week’s convertible bond sale.

Key events this week:
* US consumer confidence, Tuesday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan, Tom Barkin, Michael Barr speak, Tuesday
* Apple shareholder meeting, Tuesday
* US new home sales, Wednesday
* Nvidia earnings, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* US GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Jeff Schmid, Beth Hammack, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
* US PCE inflation, income and spending, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0462
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2619
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 149.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $93,977.75
* Ether fell 5.9% to $2,642.2
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.48%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.56%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $70.83 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,950.91 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Sujata Rao, Lynn Thomasson, Robert Brand and Catherine Bosley

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. –Steve Jobs, 1955-2011.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Fri -yeah!

February 21, 1925: New Yorker Magazine debuts.
February 21, 1916: Battle of Verdun in France – over 1 million men killed.
February 21, 1947: Edwin Land demonstrates the first “instant camera” – the Polaroid Land Camera, to the Optical Society of America in New York City, revolutionizing photography by producing a developed photograph in about 60 seconds.
On Feb. 21, 1965, former Black Muslim leader Malcolm X was shot and killed by assassins identified as Black Muslims as he was about to address a rally in New York City; he was 39.   Go to article

Andres Segovia, guitarist, b. 1893.
Anais Nin, writer, b.1903.
W.H. Auden, poet/writer, b. 1907.

Decapitated woman found in Irish bog is 2,000-year-old ritual sacrifice
A bog body discovered in Northern Ireland is actually a young woman, not a teenage boy as previously thought. Read More

Evolution itself can evolve, new study argues
A new computer model suggests that the process of evolution can get better at evolving in the face of environmental change. Read More.

Scientists may have just discovered 300 of the rarest black holes in the universe
How black holes grow to monstrous scales is one of astronomy’s prevailing enigmas. A new record-breaking dataset, which reveals 300 potential ‘missing link black holes’, could help to unravel it. Read More.

AI-designed chips are so weird that ‘humans cannot really understand them’ — but they perform better than anything we’ve created
AI models have, within hours, created more efficient wireless chips through deep learning, but it is unclear how their ‘randomly shaped’ designs were produced. Read More.

Stunning images from the Underwater Photographer of the Year contest
Fighting fish, thirsty camels and hairy shrimp are all featured among the winning images of the Underwater Photographer of the Year competition.

A survival tale
In this short video, a 24-year-old kayaker described what happened when he was briefly swallowed by a humpback whale.

USA vs. Canada
Canada’s men’s hockey team beat Team USA in an overtime thriller Thursday to win the inaugural 4 Nations Face-off championship.

Can shoes be art?
Germany’s Federal Court of Justice is wrestling whether or knot a popular shoe can be considered art.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nuuk, Greenland
Children play hockey on an icy surface in the Danish territory’s capital city
Photograph: Emilio Morenatti/AP

Tundra swans, whose natural habitat is the Arctic region, flock to Lake Gala to spend the winter season in Edirne, Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty

New Delhi, India
Participants drive a 1947 Buick vintage car around India Gate during the ‘21 Gun Salute Concours d’Elegance’
Photograph: Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 21, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43428.02	-748.63
		-1.69%
S&P 500	6013.13	-104.39
		-1.71%
NASDAQ	19524.01	-438.35
		-2.20%
TSX	25147.03	-367.05
		-1.44%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38776.94	+98.90
		+0.26%
HANG SENG	23477.92	+900.94
		+3.99%
SENSEX	75311.06	-424.90
		-0.56%
FTSE 100*	8659.37	-3.60
		-0.04%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.108	3.210
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.296	3.385
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4313	4.5033
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6785	4.7448

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7025	0.7057
US $	1.4234	1.4171

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4889	0.6716
US $	1.0461	0.9559

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2932.05	2936.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.58	72.25

Market Commentary:
There is one thing stronger than all the armies in the world, and this is an idea whose time has come. –Victor Hugo, 1802-1885.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 1.4%, or 367.05 to 25,147.03 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.2% on Dec. 18.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 170 of 220 shares fell, while 48 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.0%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 11.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss four times. The next day, it declined three times for an average 1.3% and advanced 0.8% once
* This month, the index fell 1.5%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.3%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Dec. 20
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 19.2% above its low on Feb. 21, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.38% compared with 11.12% in the previous session and the average of 11.15% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology| -113.4086| -4.0| 0/10
Materials | -99.0378| -3.1| 4/45
Financials | -72.2210| -0.9| 7/18
Energy | -64.4987| -1.5| 5/38
Industrials | -16.4378| -0.5| 6/22
Consumer Discretionary| -8.6039| -1.1| 3/8
Consumer Staples | -4.1078| -0.4| 5/5
Real Estate | -2.4860| -0.5| 4/15
Health Care | 0.4446| 0.6| 2/2
Utilities | 4.0500| 0.4| 9/5
Communication Services| 9.2575| 1.5| 3/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -89.2000| -6.0| 1.3| 7.5
Manulife Financial | -24.3200| -4.4| -11.9| -2.3
Brookfield Corp | -13.2700| -1.6| 27.1| 1.3
Canadian National | 2.7930| 0.5| -27.1| 1.3
Telus | 3.8700| 1.7| 20.2| 13.9
BCE | 4.4130| 2.1| -9.1| 2.3
US
By Rita Nazareth, Vildana Hajric and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — Stocks got hit after weaker-than-expected economic data raised concern about the outlook for Corporate America amid a surge in consumers’ long-run inflation views to the highest since 1995.
From consumer sentiment to housing and services, Friday’s readings unsettled investors at a time when the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates.
The S&P 500 lost over 1.5% and bonds rallied.
A notional $2.7 trillion of options tied to equities and ETFs was expected to expire.
That usually amplifies price swings.
Also contributing to the volatility was a rally in Covid-19 vaccine makers as traders shared earlier reports about a new coronavirus study in China.
$2.7 Trillion Option Expiry to ‘Unclench’ Gamma: Equity Insight
To Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services, you put all those factors together when you have a stock market that’s so “richly valued”, and it’s enough for “a little bit of a shakeout.”
At AlphaSimplex Group, Katy Kaminski says it just seems to be a “classic risk-off type of day.”
“Is this the start of the correction?” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“Fears of a weaker economic outlook is dwarfing higher inflation. Add in three people have sent us a new bat virus story. Does anyone want to go into the weekend short Treasuries?”
The S&P 500 fell 1.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 2.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.7%, led by a plunge in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
The Dow transportation index sank 2.6%.
The Russell 2000 dropped 2.9%. A gauge of the Magnificent Seven mega caps lost 2.5%.
A late rally in the Treasury market pushed the yield on 10-year notes lower for a sixth-straight week as traders hunt for safety amid lower stock and oil prices.
The yield on 10-year bonds fell eight basis points to 4.43%.
A dollar gauge rose 0.2%.
“With policy uncertainty and weaker retail sales guidance yesterday from consumer spending bellwether Walmart, we may have the catalyst we need for a healthy correction,” said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“However, there’s still a strong foundation in place for the bull market to continue.”
Bolvin said earnings growth is up, and while the Fed may be on a pause, their next move is a cut.
“A cranky consumer may finally rein in spending which will help ease inflation,” she said.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, equity markets remain in a period of consolidation following an impressive two-year run.
“There is an interesting shift in market leadership, which could propel markets forward, as the risk/reward dynamics in the international and value space catch the eye of investors,” Hackett said.
The majority of similar consolidation phases in US equities have ended with a continuation of the bull market, according to Ed Clissold and Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research.
The 1962 cyclical bear is the most notable exception.
In fact, the average pattern suggests additional consolidation before moving higher, they noted.
“Whether the last 2.5 months are a consolidation phase within an ongoing cyclical bull, or the start of a bear market, depends on inflation, earnings, and other factors,” they said.
“Currently, they support the argument that it is a bull market until proven otherwise.”
Meantime, hedge funds have trimmed net positions on most of the Magnificent Seven stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
“The latest filings show hedge funds becoming more selective within popular sectors and themes,” the team including Ben Snider and Jenny Ma wrote.
Despite the trimming, six companies in the group of mega caps still rank among top positions for hedge funds, with the exception being Tesla Inc.
More broadly, short interest for the median S&P 500 stock has also increased to the highest level since 2020, now at 2% of market cap.
European equities attracted the biggest inflows since the war in Ukraine began three years ago, according to a note from Bank of America Corp., underpinned by once-strong optimism around peace negotiations.
About $4 billion flowed into regional funds in the week through Feb. 19, the most since February 2022, the note said citing EPFR Global data.
It also marked a second consecutive week of inflows into Europe.
BofA strategist Michael Hartnett reiterated a preference for global stocks to US peers, saying markets such as Germany, China, Japan and South Korea are more attractive at a time when business activity is improving.
Meanwhile, he warned American markets face a risk from an unexpected slowdown in economic growth.

Corporate Highlights:
* The US Justice Department has been investigating UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s Medicare billing practices, a person familiar with the matter said.
* Coinbase Global Inc. said the Securities and Exchange Commission has agreed to drop its lawsuit that accused the largest US cryptocurrency trading platform of running an illegal exchange. The agreement is pending commissioner approval.
* President Donald Trump told a gathering of governors that Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook promised him that the company’s manufacturing would shift from Mexico to the US during a meeting at the White House this week.
* B. Riley Financial Inc. jumped after the investment and brokerage firm said it has enough cash for the next 12 months, as it continues to navigate a slew of soured investments and cope with upcoming debt payments.
* US prosecutors and regulators are investigating a $32 million deal between CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. and a technology distributor to provide cybersecurity tools to the Internal Revenue Service, according to two people familiar with the matter and a document seen by Bloomberg News.
* Akamai Technologies Inc. tumbled after the infrastructure software company gave an outlook that was weaker than expected.
* Block Inc. plunged after the digital-payments company posted fourth-quarter profit and revenue that fell short of analysts’ forecasts.
* Booking Holdings Inc., the parent to travel brands such as Kayak and Priceline, delivered better-than-expected fourth- quarter results following a bustling holiday season.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. tumbled after warning it’s poised for a first-ever decline in electric-vehicle deliveries in 2025, heralding a new challenge after the company achieved a long-held profitability goal.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.3%
* Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 2.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0461
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2631
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 149.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $95,032.25
* Ether fell 3.3% to $2,637.31
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.47%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.1% to $70.25 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,934.71 an ounce

–With assistance from Rheaa Rao, Sujata Rao, Macarena Muñoz, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Divya Patil.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
February 20, 1872: Cyrus W. Baldwin patents the hydraulic electric elevator, introducing a significant advancement in vertical transportation technology.
On Feb. 20, 1962, astronaut John Glenn became the first American to orbit Earth as he flew aboard the Friendship 7 Mercury capsule.  Go to article.

Ansel Adams, photographer, b. 1902.
Cindy Crawford, model, b. 1966.
Kurt Cobain, musician, b. 1967.

Lasers reveal 1,000-year-old Indigenous road near Chaco Canyon that aligns with the winter solstice
Lasers have revealed a 1,000-year-old sacred road near Chaco Canyon in New Mexico. Researchers think the Indigenous roads were more about cosmology than traffic. Read More.

Breakthrough quantum chip that harnesses new state of matter could set us on the path to quantum supremacy
Microsoft scientists have created a quantum processor that taps into a rare state of matter that was first theorized in the 1930s, paving the way for a processor with a million qubits within years. Read More.

Man nearly guaranteed to get early Alzheimer’s is still disease-free in his 70s — how?
A man who should have developed early-onset Alzheimer’s disease due to a genetic mutation is still symptom-free in his 70s. Scientists are trying to understand why. Read More.

Cynthia Erivo set to host the Tony Awards
The “Wicked” star, who is up for an Oscar for her performance in that film, will host this year’s Tony Awards.

4 Nations hockey tickets are rivaling prices for the Super Bowl
The 4 Nations Face-Off Championship between Canada and the US could generate a massive net profit. Data shows ticket prices are rivaling those of the Super Bowl.

Are your supplements safe?
Protein bars, shakes and pre-workout mixes are often used to maximize results at the gym. But some supplements are also associated with muscle dysmorphia, a study shows.

Tomb of ancient Egyptian king unearthed in ‘remarkable’ discovery
This discovery marks one of the most significant archaeological breakthroughs in recent years, an Egyptian official said.

Where does the internet actually come from?
Surfing the web, checking your email and streaming your favorite shows are all possible because of a vast network of undersea cables that power the global internet. Watch this video to learn how these cables work.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nice, France
A woman takes part in the Battle of Flowers event at the city carnival. The theme is King of the Oceans
Photograph: Syspeo/Sipa/Rex/Shutterstock

Placentia, California
An Allen’s hummingbird sits in her nest under the shelter of a tangelo tree
Photograph: Bruce Chambers/Zuma Press/Rex/Shutterstock

Phnom Penh, Cambodia
A woman takes her daily exercise in the village of Sre Ampel at dawn
Photograph: Heng Sinith/AP
Market Closes for February 20, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44176.65	-450.94
		-1.01%
S&P 500	6117.52	-26.63
		-0.43%
NASDAQ	19962.36	-93.89
		-0.47%
TSX	25514.08	-112.08
		-0.44%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38678.04	-486.57
		-1.24%
HANG SENG	22576.98	-367.26
		-1.60%
SENSEX	75735.96	-203.22
		-0.27%
FTSE 100*	8662.97	-49.56
		-0.57%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.210	3.178
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.385	3.357
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5033	4.5268
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7448	4.7597

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7057	0.7026
US $	1.4171	1.4232

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4885	0.6718
US $	1.0504	0.9520

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2936.85	2927.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.25	72.25

Market Commentary:
A weak currency is the sign of a  weak economy, and a weak economy leads to a weak nation. –H. Ross Perot,1930-2019.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 112.08 to 25,514.08 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.7%.
Tfi International Inc. had the largest drop, falling 20.8%.
Today, 116 of 220 shares fell, while 99 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index was little changed
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 20.9% above its low on Feb. 21, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.14t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.12% compared with 11.01% in the previous session and the average of 11.16% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -74.9158| -2.6| 1/9
Industrials | -29.5951| -0.9| 5/22
Financials | -24.7882| -0.3| 9/16
Energy | -13.3830| -0.3| 19/22
Consumer Staples | -11.0318| -1.2| 3/7
Real Estate | -3.3770| -0.7| 6/14
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0090| 0.0| 6/5
Communication Services | 1.3629| 0.2| 2/3
Health Care | 2.2038| 3.2| 3/1
Utilities | 3.3045| 0.3| 10/5
Materials | 38.1482| 1.2| 35/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -56.9700| -3.7| 20.4| 14.4
TFI International | -21.0500| -20.8| 748.4| -26.0
RBC | -21.0300| -1.2| -46.5| -2.3
Ivanhoe Mines | 5.4720| 6.9| 77.2| -1.1
Canadian National | 5.7810| 1.0| -2.2| 0.9
Manulife Financial | 34.6400| 6.7| 28.1| 2.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from all-time highs as a disappointing forecast from the world’s largest retailer added to concern about the economy’s main engine.
Walmart Inc., the first big-box retailer to report results after the holiday season, sank 6.5%.
Its chief financial officer acknowledged “uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions.”
That’s just days after retail sales signaled an abrupt pullback by consumers.
A slide in banks also weighed on trading, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. each falling over 3.8%.
Retailers like Walmart tend to perform well during tough economic times.
It’s also true that Walmart usually starts the year with a conservative guidance.
But the fact is consumers are dealing with stubborn prices and high borrowing costs, and many are turning to credit cards and other debt to support their spending — with a rising number of those loans starting to go bad.
“This news out of Walmart raises even more concerns about the state of the consumer,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“We have already seen some very disappointing numbers on consumer confidence and last week’s retail sales data was much lower than expected. It raises some questions about how strong growth will be over the rest of this year.”
Those uncertainties hit a market dealing with risks ranging from tariffs to inflation, geopolitics and valuations.
After rallying over 20% last year, US stocks have trailed global counterparts — with the S&P 500 failing to achieve meaningful breakouts during the three times it closed at a record in 2025.
“A correction may soon be necessary to restore a more attractive valuation for US stocks,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“While there are no overt warning signs just yet, it pays to be alert to signals that would put the S&P 500 forecast on a downward trajectory in the short-term.”
The S&P 500 slipped 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1%.
The Russell 2000 dropped 0.9%.
The KBW Bank Index slumped 2.4%.
A gauge of the Magnificent Seven mega caps fell 0.5%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid three basis points to 4.50%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%.
The yen led gains in major currencies on bets the Bank of Japan will hike rates sooner rather than later.
“Walmart, a bellwether for consumer spending, raised another red flag, just as mounting trade tensions threaten to drive up the costs of goods,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
Before Thursday’s decline, Walmart’s shares had doubled since December 2023.
That left no room for disappointment.
Despite the market reaction, its outlook is more nuanced than it first appears.
In reality, it reflects a few key factors that don’t necessarily spell doom and gloom for the company’s business.
In addition, CFO John David Rainey also said consumer behavior remained “consistent” and “resilient.”
He noted that January had actually been the strongest month in the quarter.
Aside from the selloff in consumer companies, banks are among the groups hit the hardest.
Among the reasons, Jason Goldberg at Barclays Plc cited Walmart’s outlook and a contraction in the Conference Board leading economic index as factors fueling macroeconomic concerns.
But there’s also the fact that banks have also “had a decent move” resulting in “some profit taking,” the analyst wrote.
“US equities are seeing some broader de-risking today,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
While the overall consolidation pattern remains intact/healthy at this time, Wantrobski is watching for key support within the 5,950-6,000 range for the S&P 500 in sessions ahead.
“A closing break below this threshold still opens the door to a bigger drawdown towards the 200-day moving average — which resides within our 5,600-5,800 support target,” he added.
The gauge is currently above 6,100.
The US stock market can flip into a correction territory as retail and institutional buyers are running out of steam, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner, the bank’s managing director for global markets and tactical specialist.
Demand from retail traders, which have been piling into US stocks at a record pace this year, is expected to slow down ahead of the tax paying season in March.
Flows from pension funds can also “run out of juice,” according to Rubner attributing it to seasonal trends.
January and February are typically the strongest months of the year for yearly asset allocations, followed by weaker inflows in March.
Meantime, a measure of the S&P 500’s ability to brush off fear-inducing headlines and surprise policy announcements is the strongest since before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Investors are now less fixated on one particular variable —like a key inflation report — than in recent years, making the market more resilient to macro shocks, according to analysts at 22V Research.
“More variables, like earnings, industry group, and factor exposures, matter,” said Kevin Brocks, director at 22V Research.
“The macro picture has improved and the economy is further from recession.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Spirit Airlines Inc. won court approval to leave bankruptcy via a lender-backed take-private deal after rejecting a takeover offer from rival Frontier Group Holdings Inc.
* Boeing Co.’s chief executive officer said Elon Musk and his DOGE team are helping the plane maker work through bottlenecks that have caused the next fleet of Air Force One jets to fall years behind schedule.
* Carvana Co. tumbled after the used-car retailer reported lower gross profit per vehicle and shrinking wholesale volumes for the latest quarter, undercutting a turnaround narrative that had buoyed the stock.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. posted its fastest pace of revenue growth in more than a year, as the Chinese internet pioneer co- founded by Jack Ma takes another step toward a recovery after years of turbulence.
* Hasbro Inc. is targeting mid-single-digit sales growth through 2027 and savings of about $1 billion, as the toymaker laid out a plan to expand its reach over the next few years.
* Herbalife Ltd., a nutrition company, reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat consensus estimates.
* Birkenstock Holding Plc opted to keep its outlook unchanged, even as sales of its high-end sandals and clogs jumped more than expected in the first quarter.
* Grab Holdings Ltd. predicted full-year revenue that trailed estimates, suggesting caution around a Southeast Asian ride- hailing and food delivery market where GoTo Group remains a formidable rival.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone HCOB manufacturing & services PMI, Friday
* US S&P Global manufacturing & services PMI, existing home sales, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
* KBW Bank Index fell 2.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0503
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.2670
* The Japanese yen rose 1.2% to 149.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $98,548.34
* Ether rose 1.5% to $2,752.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $72.57 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,938.39 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Divya Patil.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The truth is, everyone is going to hurt you.  You just have to find the ones worth suffering for. –Bob Marley, 1945-1981.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
February 18, 1930: Clyde W. Tombaugh discovers Pluto, expanding our understanding of the solar system.
Photographic evidence of Pluto was discovered by Clyde W. Tombaugh at Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Ariz. Go to article

Toni Morrison, writer, b. 1931.
Yoko Ono artist, b. 1933

AI ‘brain decoder’ can read a person’s thoughts with just a quick brain scan and almost no training
An improvement to an existing AI-based brain decoder can translate a person’s thoughts into text without hours of training. Read More.

Lasers reveal 15th-century fortified Zapotec city in Mexico
Lidar has fully revealed a 600-year-old Zapotec city in southern Mexico. Read More.

‘Stay off the roads’: Winter storm warning as deadly floods strike Kentucky
Kentucky is battling devastating floods after another powerful winter storm hit the eastern U.S. over the weekend, leaving at least 10 people dead. Read More.

‘We don’t feel stranded’: Astronauts ‘stuck’ in space set the record straight
“I think both of us will be a little bit sad when that feeling of space sort of leaves us.” Read More.

NASA rover discovers liquid water ‘ripples’ carved into Mars rock — and it could rewrite the Red Planet’s history
NASA’s Curiosity rover photographed remnants of rippling waves in an ancient Martian lakebed, proving that the Red Planet had open water for longer in its history than previously thought. Read More.

Catherine, Princess of Wales and children share hand-drawn portraits
Kensington Palace shared these family portraits drawn by Catherine, Princess of Wales, and her three children – George, Charlotte and Louis.

The American shopping mall is being reinvented
As major retailers and department stores continue closing, malls are looking for ways to boost foot traffic and sales. Here’s how they’re trying to convince consumers to stick around.

Emma Stone’s latest dress is made for sneaking snacks into the movies
Tired of expensive concessions? You could just store popcorn in your pockets like Emma Stone, but you butter not tell anyone.

Let’s paint the town rouge
Two strangers met on the Eiffel Tower 35 years ago. Here’s how they ended up married.

What is the scent of a mummy?
Nobody asked … but now that you’re wondering, researchers discovered that ancient Egyptian remains actually smell nice

I am tired of wiping away my wife’s tears and reassuring her that things will be ok for us. — Brian Gibbs, saying he was “heartbroken” to be suddenly let go from his dream job as a park ranger in Iowa. Gibbs was one of thousands of federal probationary workers who were terminated last week, a move by the Trump administration to decrease the overall federal workforce. He told CNN that he and his wife are expecting their second child this summer and he’s now one of many trying to figure out what to do next.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nuuk, Greenland
The northern lights appear over the island’s capital
Photograph: Emilio Morenatti/AP

Ağrı, Turkey
An aerial view of the snow-covered Ishak Pasha Palace, one of the most important Ottoman monuments in Anatolia
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Chongqing, China
A bird perches on a branch of plum blossom
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock
Market Closes for February 18, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44556.34	+10.26
		+0.02%
S&P 500	6129.58	+14.95
		+0.24%
NASDAQ	20041.26	+14.49
		+0.07%
TSX	25648.84	+165.62
		+0.65%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39235.20	-35.20
		-0.09%
HANG SENG	22976.81	+360.58
		+1.59%
SENSEX	75967.39	-29.47
		-0.04%
FTSE 100*	8766.73	-1.28
		-0.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.191	3.109
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.365	3.299
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5464	4.4762
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7647	4.6963

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7046	0.7051
US $	1.4193	1.4182

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4829	0.6743
US $	1.0447	0.9572

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2900.55	2915.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.85	71.29

Market Commentary:
Most people can bear adversity.  But if you wish to know what a man really is, give him power. –Robert G. Ingersoll, 1833-1899.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 25,648.84 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on Feb. 10 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.8%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 157 of 220 shares rose, while 62 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 21.6% above its low on Feb. 21, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.07% compared with 10.99% in the previous session and the average of 11.17% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 61.1555| 0.7| 17/8
Materials | 38.8520| 1.2| 40/9
Industrials | 26.7258| 0.8| 14/14
Energy | 26.0391| 0.6| 37/5
Information Technology | 14.2810| 0.5| 5/5
Consumer Discretionary | 4.3016| 0.5| 9/2
Real Estate | 1.2712| 0.3| 15/5
Consumer Staples | 1.1836| 0.1| 7/3
Health Care | 0.7984| 1.2| 3/1
Utilities | -1.7569| -0.2| 9/6
Communication Services | -7.2137| -1.2| 1/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 28.4700| 1.7| 36.4| -1.0
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 17.2800| 2.4| 1.1| 8.1
Shopify | 13.0100| 0.8| -0.9| 19.9
National Bank of Canada | -3.1780| -0.9| -29.2| -4.6
BCE | -4.1580| -1.9| -5.1| -0.6
Enbridge | -6.7190| -0.7| 114.9| -0.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in chipmakers drove stocks to all-time highs, while talks between US and Russia raised hopes of an end to the war in Ukraine.
The S&P 500 topped its January record despite a slide in most big techs.
Top officials from the US and Russia met for a first round of talks over the war in Ukraine and raised the possibility of broader cooperation.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average wavered.
A gauge of chipmakers climbed 1.7%.
Intel Corp. surged on breakup speculation.
Super Micro Computer Inc. jumped on a bullish outlook.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. soared as CNBC said a Sycamore Partners takeout is alive.
Meta Platforms Inc. halted a 20-day rally.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose seven basis points to 4.55%.
A dollar gauge added 0.2%.
Bitcoin sank 2.3%.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., we’d need to see a meaningful break of the S&P 500 above its record for it to be considered a compelling development.
“The new high in January was only a very mild move above the record high set in December,” he said.
“And it fell right back into its sideways range very quickly.”
The US benchmark has spent the better part of the last three months in a “pretty narrow” trading range, and we are entering a weak seasonal period with weak momentum, said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG.
“Our concern would be a marginal new high before a deeper pullback into March,” he noted.
“With that said, until bears can break back under 6,000, bulls remain in the driver seat.”
Mark Hackett at Nationwide says stocks are attempting to break out to a record despite geopolitical uncertainty, weak seasonality and retail investor exhaustion.
“As earnings expectations accelerate and the share repurchase window opens for most companies, the key tenets of the bear argument are breaking down,” he said.
“And odds are improving that the S&P 500 breaks out of the trading range it has been stuck in since the election.”
Global stocks have become the most-popular asset class with investors, who are showing the biggest willingness to take risk in 15 years, according to a survey by Bank of America Corp.
Fund managers’ cash levels fell to the lowest since 2010, while 34% of participants said they expect world equities to be the best-performing asset in 2025, the survey showed.
A net 11% indicated they were underweight bonds.
Investors are “long stocks, short everything else,” strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. About 89% of respondents said US equities were overvalued, the most since at least April 2001.
“While we expect volatility to pick up in the near term amid a range of macro uncertainties, favorable fundamentals should continue to support global equities’ next leg up,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Investors can consider capital preservation strategies to manage downside risks.”
At Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson says the market’s resilience has been impressive year-to-date as investors refuse to “back down.”
“We expect market conditions to remain choppy as investors rotate ‘down-cap’ amid declining Treasury yields, weakening crude oil, and a pullback in the US dollar.”
“Investors will want to see more ‘Goldilocks’ data to contradict last week’s ‘whiff of stagflation,’ and a less hawkish tone from Fed officials,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“Additionally, stabilizing yields and solid earnings would offer added tailwinds for equity markets at the start of the holiday-shortened trading week.”
Now beneath a solid fourth-quarter earnings season, there’s actually a worrisome development that may put a dent in the bull case for US stocks: Corporate America’s profit outlook is souring.
A gauge of forward earnings that compares companies’ forecasts with analysts’ projections is the lowest in a year after plunging to a level last seen in 2016 earlier this month, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
With the vast majority of S&P 500 companies having reported so far this results cycle, earnings per share is up 13% on the year, highest since fourth quarter of 2021, BofA strategists including Ohsung Kwon and Savita Subramanian said.
Yet guidance from companies has been weak even as BofA’s Corporate Sentiment Score — a measure of positive versus negative words on earnings calls — rose to a record.

Corporate Highlights:
* Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI debuted its updated Grok-3 model, showcasing a version of the chatbot technology to challenge OpenAI days after the billionaire’s unsolicited cash bid to buy the company was rejected.
* Southwest Airlines Co. will cut about 1,750 jobs in its leadership ranks, a dramatic step to reduce expenses that mark the first layoffs in the carrier’s history.
* Constellation Brands Inc. jumped after Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported a new position in the Corona and Modelo maker.
* Frozen food company Conagra Brands Inc. dropped after cutting its fiscal 2025 guidance.
* Medtronic Plc slipped after the medical-device maker reported revenue for its fiscal third quarter that missed expectations.
* United Rentals Inc. abandoned its plan to acquire H&E Equipment Services Inc., declining to increase its original offer of $3.4 billion for the rival construction equipment supplier.

Key events this week:
* New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
* Fed minutes, Wednesday
* China loan prime rates, Thursday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, Thursday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee and Alberto Musalem speak, Thursday
* Eurozone HCOB manufacturing & services PMI, Friday
* US S&P Global manufacturing & services PMI, existing home sales, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0447
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2606
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 152.05 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $94,201.4
* Ether fell 5.2% to $2,632.75
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.55%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.56%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $71.77 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,933.84 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Aya Wagatsuma and Rob Verdonck.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
I don’t have expectations anymore, I have standards.  Respect my time, match my energy, keep your promises,
and be consistent.  These are my non-negotiables. –Mike O’Hearn, b. 1969.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com