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Newsletter, April 14th ,2025
Dear Friends,
Tangents:
April 14, 1828: First Webster’s Dictionary.
On April 14, 1865, President Lincoln was shot and mortally wounded by John Wilkes Booth while attending the comedy “Our American Cousin” at Ford’s Theater in Washington, D.C.
He died the next day. Go to article.
1890: OAS formed.
April 14, 2003: The Human Genome Project is complete. This 13-year endeavour led to significant advancements in personalized medicine, genetic testing, and our understanding of inherited diseases.
Mook, Bernie and a goth Gaga
If you couldn’t make it to Indio, California, for the first weekend of the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, here’s what you missed.
Oh no, he didn’t!
Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout had it. On Saturday night, he leaped into the air to catch Houston Astros Yainer Díaz’s fly ball to right field — when a fan ripped the ball right out of his glove. Although the Angels still won, Trout kindly met with the Astros fan after the game. “They were really apologetic,” Trout said.
Fishing net captures a mystery
A fossilized jaw bone caught by fishermen off the coast of Taiwan in 2010 has mystified scientists for over a decade. But after analyzing protein fragments contained in teeth still attached to the jaw, they’ve identified its ancestry.
That’s how many years it took Rory McIlroy to complete his career grand slam of winning each of golf’s four majors.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Osaka, Japan
A visitor tries to manoeuvre a Honda Uni-One hands-free electric mobility device during Expo 2025
Photograph: Hiro Komae/AP
Heringsdorf, Germany
A man runs along a beach on the Baltic island of Usedom
Photograph: Hannibal Hanschke/EPA
Jerusalem
People attend the Church of the Holy Sepulchre to celebrate Palm Sunday, commemorating Christ’s triumphal entry into Jerusalem
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 14th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
40524.79 | +312.08 |
| +0.78% | ||
| S&P 500 | 5405.97 | +42.61 |
| +0.79% | ||
| NASDAQ | 16831.48 | +107.02 |
| +0.64% | ||
| TSX | 23866.53 | +278.73 |
| +1.18% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 33982.36 | +396.78 |
| +1.18% | ||
| HANG SENG |
21417.40 | +502.71 |
| +2.40% | ||
| SENSEX | 75157.26 | +1310.11 |
| +1.77% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 8134.34 | +170.16 |
| +2.14% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.119 | 3.264 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.434 | 3.552 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.3739 | 4.4895 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8091 | 4.8703 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7189 | 0.7210 |
| US $ |
1.3910 | 1.3868 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5770 | 0.6341 |
| US $ |
1.1340 | 0.8818 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3230.50 | 3230.50 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 61.53 | 61.50 |
Market Commentary:
If you’re not healthy, you’re not wealthy. -R.E. McMaster.
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a second session on Monday, continuing to recover from last’s week’s global tumble, as U.S. President Donald Trump again said may meddle again with his tariff schemes, this time to Canada’s benefit, as reports said he is considering pausing his tariffs on the auto industry, which is an integral part of the Canadian economy.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.2%, with 10 of 11 sectors higher, led by real estate stocks.
As of market close, 194 of 218 stocks rose, while 23 fell.
Lundin Gold Inc. led the advances, rising 6.2%, while Pason Systems Inc. decreased 2.8%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 1.2% to 23,867
* 10 of 11 sectors rose
** Real estate gained, up 1.9%
** Information technology declined, down 0.3%
* Crude oil rose 0.2% to $62/bbl
* Natgas fell 5.4% to $3.34/mmbtu
* Gold fell 0.8% to $3,195/oz
* Silver rose 1.2% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG CN) +6.2%: Lundin Gold Raised to Buy at Cormark Securities; PT C$54
* First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG CN) +5.7%
* Mag Silver Corp. (MAG CN) +5.7%
* B2Gold Corp. (BTO CN) +5.4%
* Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS CN) +5%
Decliners:
* Pason Systems Inc. (PSI CN) -2.8%
* Tfi International Inc. (TFII CN) -2.5%: TFI International PT Cut to $105 from $120 at Stifel
* Richelieu Hardware Ltd. (RCH CN) -2.2%
* MDA Space Ltd. (MDA CN) -2.2%: M&A Watch N.A.: Intel, Altera, Silver Lake, KKR, OSTTRA, CenExel
* Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL CN) -1.8%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A degree of calm returned to Wall Street, with stocks and bonds notching a twin rally after a tumultuous week in the grip of President Donald Trump’s disruptive trade war.
With the White House signaling a tariff reprieve on key consumer electronics, the S&P 500 gained almost 1%.
Apple Inc. extended a two-day surge to more than 6% to lead gains in megacaps.
Carmakers rallied as Trump floated exceptions for auto parts facing 25% US levies.
Treasuries snapped a five-day slide that drove 10-year yields up by the most in over two decades.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, investors are starting to conclude there are now at least some boundaries to how aggressive the administration can be with its proposals.
“If the rebound is going to have legs in the near term, investors will probably need to see continued signs of flexibility from the White House on tariffs,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Uncertainty is still high, and day-to-day volatility could remain elevated.”
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the recent selloff in the bond market, rejecting speculation that foreign nations were dumping their holdings of US Treasuries, while flagging that his department has tools to address dislocation if needed.
“I don’t think there’s a dumping” by foreign investors, Bessent said in an interview Monday with Bloomberg Television while on a visit to Buenos Aires, Argentina.
He pointed to what he said was increased foreign demand at auctions for 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities last week.
Investors are still struggling to game out the economic spillovers of the trade war given the back-and-forth in negotiations.
While US officials insist the tariff strategy is carefully constructed, critics see the trading order as subject to the whims of a transactional president.
“As we begin this week, again, traders will be fixated to social-media feeds and the newswires for the latest on this never ending saga of ‘tariffs-on, tariffs-off’,” said Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets.
“One thing the current administration has been great at is keeping market participants on their toes.”
Strategists at BlackRock Inc.’s research arm said they are dialing up their risk-taking and embracing US and Japanese stocks following the Trump administration’s pause of tariffs on many global trading partners, even as they steer clear of longer-dated US debt.
“The near-term risk of a financial accident has eased,” wrote the BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Jean Boivin and Wei Li. “
Checks on policy allowed us to extend our tactical horizon back to six to 12 months and resume our positive view on US and Japanese stocks.”
Meantime, Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Beata Manthey lowered their view on US equities, saying the case to diversify away from the asset class is strengthening as the trade war undermines economic growth and earnings.
“The worst may be over, but the coast is not clear,” said Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley.
“The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and further concessions over the weekend lessen the near-term probability of a recession, but uncertainty remains high, the Fed is on hold and back-end rates are a headwind.”
Despite all the convulsions and uncertainty, most equities strategists still expect the S&P 500 to rally through the remainder of 2025.
The gauge put up a strong performance last week, but is still down for the year as Trump has placed substantial tariffs on goods imported from China, Canada, Mexico, the EU and numerous other US trade partners.
The benchmark closed trading last Tuesday having lost 15% in 2025, before reversing course on Thursday when Trump announced a 90-day delay on many of his tariffs.
The 15% drop is historically significant.
Going back to 1957, the S&P 500 has fallen at least that much through early April 16 times, and on only three occasions has it recovered to end December in the green, according to data compiled by Ryan Detrick at Carson Group LLC.
And in each of those instances — 2020, 2009 and 1982 — the market was rescued by the Federal Reserve, which stepped in to support a faltering US economy.
“Last week’s moves were so violent that we may be nearing capitulation,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“The point where expectations are so low that any kind of positive news brings massive relief. Fear is a good thing, and when fear is abundant, it’s probably fair to say we’re closer to the bottom than the top. But is this true today?”
Cox says that based on the conditions we’re facing, there may be more selling ahead.
In corporate news, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. became the latest firm to report its highest-ever quarter for equity trading, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley hit similar milestones last week.
The intense market swings create the opportunity to make profit but traders also run the risks of higher losses.
In market parlance, periods when investors capitalize on volatility is called ‘good volatility’ while it’s deemed ‘bad’ if they sit it out, potentially crippling liquidity.
Apple’s iPhone unit shipments surged 10% in the first quarter, according to IDC.
Mark Zuckerberg took the stand in federal court as the first witness in the US Federal Trade Commission’s antitrust trial seeking to break up Meta Platforms Inc.
Nvidia Corp. plans to produce up to $500 billion of AI gear in the US.
Intel Corp. agreed to sell a 51% stake in its programmable chips unit Altera.
Treasuries may have hit the bottom for now amid signs of robust foreign demand and expectations for the Federal Reserve to support US government debt when needed, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
“I feel pretty good that we’re putting in a low in price and a high in yield here,” Bob Michele, the firm’s global head of fixed income, told Bloomberg Television.
“In our conversations with overseas investors, they’re not being shaken out of Treasuries.”
Michele cited Fed data showing foreign central banks and reserve managers recently boosted their holdings of Treasuries.
Policymakers are closely monitoring a variety of similar gauges to assess whether Trump’s sweeping tariffs will result in more persistent price growth.
While many economists forecast the duties to boost inflation — at least in the near-term — tariff threats so far haven’t changed consumers’ views over the long term.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller laid out two scenarios for how Trump’s trade policy could affect the US economy, but said the inflationary impact of either would likely be temporary.
Waller called the new tariff policy “one of the biggest shocks to affect the US economy in many decades,” in remarks prepared for an event in St. Louis on Monday.
Should there be as mall tariff effect on inflation, rate cuts would “very much” be on the table for the latter half of 2025, he said.
The “S&P Week in Review” is a wrap of equity events, published every Friday.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro was unchanged at $1.1355
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.3190
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 143.06 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $84,883.51
* Ether rose 2.8% to $1,635.16
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 12 basis points to 4.37%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $61.62 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,212.94 an ounce
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Sujata Rao, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Matthew Burgess.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Whenever you do a thing, act as if all the world were watching. –Thomas Jefferson, 1743-1826.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com
April 11, 2025, Newsletter
Tangents: Happy Friday.
April 11, 1814 Napoleon Bonaparte abdicated as emperor of France and was banished to the island of Elba. Go to article
April 11. 1900: the first modern submarine, designed and built by John Philip Holland, USS Holland, is acquired by the U.S. Navy, marking a major advancement in naval warfare.
April 11, 1945: Liberation of Buchenwald.
April 11, 1968: Civil Rights Act signed into law.
Coming soon: More details about assassinations
The Trump administration plans to release additional files related to the 1968 assassinations of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, the late father of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., in the coming days.
Welcome to the neutral phase
La Niña has come to an end after just a few months and its counterpart, El Niño, hasn’t bothered to step up as the next global weather influencer. This neutral phase is forecast to last into at least early fall.
Italian fashion houses to merge
Prada struck a deal to buy rival Versace for $1.375 billion on Thursday. The price tag was a substantial discount from the roughly $2.15 billion, including debt, that Capri (then known as Michael Kors) paid for Versace in 2018.
Archaeologists may have discovered the birthplace of Alexander the Great’s grandmother
La Niña finished after just a few months
Largest-ever brain ‘connectome’ built by having a mouse watch ‘The Matrix’ and ‘Star Wars’
What are mRNA vaccines, and how do they work?
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Up in arms … two Père David’s deer squabble at a nature reserve in Yancheng, eastern China
Photograph: AFP/Getty
Skagit Valley, US
‘Snow geese warming up for the return trip to Wrangel Island, Russia, where they spend their summers, after wintering in the Skagit Valley, Washington.’
Photograph: Edmund Lowe
Kyoto, Japan
‘Visitors enjoy the plum blossom at Kitano Tenmangū. The shrine grounds are home to a large number of ume (plum) trees, and are one of the most famous spots for ume-mi (plum-viewing).’
Photograph: Hugo Anaya
Market Closes for April 11th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
40212.71 | +619.05 |
| +1.56% | ||
| S&P 500 | 5363.36 | +95.31 |
| +1.81% | ||
| NASDAQ | 16724.46 | +337.15 |
| +2.06% | ||
| TSX | 23587.80 | +572.93 |
| +2.49% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 33585.58 | -1023.42 |
| -2.96% | ||
| HANG SENG |
20914.69 | +232.91 |
| +1.13% | ||
| SENSEX | 75157.26 | +1310.11 |
| +1.77% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 7964.18 | +50.93 |
| +0.64% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.264 | 3.236 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.552 | 3.552 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.4895 | 4.4660 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8703 | 4.9261 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7210 | 0.7167 |
| US $ |
1.3868 | 1.3952 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5752 | 0.6348 |
| US $ |
1.1357 | 0.8805 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3230.50 | 3075.50 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 61.50 | 60.07 |
Market Commentary:
Those who cannot love want power. -Guggenbuhl-Craig.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 2.5%, with 11 of 11 sectors higher, led by materials stocks.
As of market close, 173 of 218 stocks fell, while 44 rose.
Tilray Brands Inc. led the declines, falling 2.9%, while Seabridge Gold Inc. increased 11%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 2.5% to 23,588
* 11 of 11 sectors rose
** Materials gained, up 4.8%
** Energy gained, up 3.1%
* Crude oil rose 2.5% to $62/bbl
* Natgas fell 0.1% to $3.55/mmbtu
* Gold rose 2.4% to $3,232/oz
* Silver rose 4.6% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA CN) +11%: Gold Mining Stocks Climb as Bullion Rises on Flight to Havens
* Novagold Resources Inc. (NG CN) +11%
* Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG CN) +11%: Torex Prelim. 1Q Payable Output 59,630 Gold-Equivalent Ounces
* Energy Fuels Inc/Canada (EFR CN) +8%
* Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN CN) +7.9% Decliners:
* Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY CN) -2.9%: Global X Marijuana Life Falls 4.5%; Tilray Brands Leads Loss
* Power Corp. of Canada (POW CN) -2.7%
* Quebecor Inc. (QBR/B CN) -1.8%
* Shopify Inc. (SHOP CN) -1.6%: Trump Tariff Surcharges Are Now Getting Added to Customer Bills
* First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCR-U CN) -1.5%
The Toronto Stock Exchange got back to winning ways again Friday, but investors cannot be blamed if they are wary about this continuing into next week given the wild fluctuations in equity markets across North America in recent days amid inflation and growth concerns amid trade wars and some negative technical analysis on commodities.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up 572.93 points, or 2.5%, to 23,587.80. Of sectors today, the biggest gainers were Base Metals, up 4%, and Energy, up 3%.
Gold traded at a fresh record high late afternoon on Friday as the dollar continued to plunge amid an escalating tariff between the United States and China, while another U.S. inflation measure weakened last month.
Gold for June delivery was last seen up $71.30 to US$3,248.80 per ounce, rising off Thursday’s record close of $3,177.50.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Friday after a report U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Trump Administration could force the suspension of Iran’s oil exports, even as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies intensified, threatening to slow global growth and weaken demand as supply is on the rise.
WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up $1.43 to settle at US$61.50 per barrel, while June Brent crude was last seen up $1.39 to US$64.72.
This week’s issue of ‘Technicals with Dave’ from Rosenberg Research focuses on commodities, and is not optimistic about the outlook for WTI crude oil or gold.
On WTI oil, Rosenberg Research said for many months it has been keeping a “weather eye” on the trading range that oil has been engaged in since late 2022.
“Time and again, sell-offs were rebuffed by support on either side of US$63 per barrel. This time might be different,” it added.
In recent days, the research noted WTI crude oil has traded as low as US$55.12 per barrel before recovering, and the breakdown had occurred even as the weekly Coppock Curve was already in a confirmed downtrend.
Rosenberg said that, plus the expectation that the indicator will remain weak into late April/early May, allows for still lower lows.
That scenario bolsters the notion that the breakdown is “decisive”.
Previous support at US$63.57 to US$71.25 per barrel, and particularly US$63.57 – US$67.71, should now be regarded as “potentially formidable resistance”, it added.
As for potential downside risk, the research said US$54.40 to US$50.33 per barrel is an important Fibonacci target, with the upper part of that range a 61.8% retracement of the 2020-2022 uptrend.
The lower level is where the current downtrend from January’s high will be 50% of the length of the 2022-2023 downdraft. If that range is violated, we would look to US$43.78, it added.
In the same note, Rosenberg said “some of the shine appears to be coming off gold”, noting the multi-month rally has carried gold to just below long-standing resistance of US$3,200 to US$3,300 per ounce.
“At this point, however, the weekly Coppock Curve is overbought and peaking. In that regard, the indicator should move into a confirmed downtrend by the end of this month and potentially remain under pressure through June. This suggests that any test of the recent highs will run the risk of creating a bearish divergence with weekly indicators.”
According to the research, the resulting pressures would be expected to at least consolidate the gains from last November’s low.
However, it said, the risk is that a correction will be a Fibonacci retracement of the larger rally from the October 2023 low at US$1,809 to the recent US$3,164 high.
For example, it cited a US$2,647 to US$2,328 per ounce range on a chart that
encompasses a 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the 2023-2025 rally.
At the lower end of that Fibonacci range, there is a fair amount of chart support in the US$2,450 to US$2,286 per ounce range, it added, Meanwhile, in terms of economic factors behind inflation and bear market concerns, Rosenberg Research in a separate noted said the “recession label” was all over today’s “horrible” University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
“Job and income views took another very big hit,” it added in noting the preliminary reading on the headline index sagged badly in April to 50.8 from 57.0 in March and under the consensus call of 53.8.
“Every income cohort saw sentiment decline sharply — the high end consumer, which had been keeping the glue together, has given up, sliding to its lowest level since June 2022.”
This came towards the end of a week that saw a trade war between the U.S. and China in particular escalate quickly, and Treasury yields move higher like they did in the market turmoil of March 2020.
As Douglas Porter Chief Economist at BMO Economics noted, the net result of an eventful week is that “reality caught up with the TSX”, holding it about flat this week (as of Friday morning), after faring better than most last week.
According to Porter, the Bank of Canada now has a “delicate” decision to make around whether or not to cut its benchmark interest rate again next Wednesday, especially with the April 28 federal election due less than two weeks after.
“Canada has gone from the forefront of the trade war to backstage, and we estimate the average weighted U.S. tariff on the economy is now “only” a bit less than 5% (for now).
Since we had built in something much heavier into our forecast initially, we are making a small, almost technical, upward adjustment to GDP this week (from 0.5% growth this year and next to 0.7% and 1.0%), albeit still with two quarters of declining activity this year in Q2 and Q3.
Make no mistake, that’s still a very soft performance and is below consensus, but it’s probably just firm enough to prompt the Bank to hold next week,” Porter wrote.
In contrast, an reflecting market uncertainties, Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said given the balance of risks on growth and inflation, he sees a case for a rate cut next week, and hopes the BoC judges it the same way.
“Truth be told, the decision could go the other way, given that the economic consequences of waiting until June would not be material. The advantage of moving now is that the accompanying Monetary Policy Report can’t avoid talking about the downside risks to growth. With that gloomy backdrop, we could all use a little cheer from a 25 basis point Easter present from our central bankers.”
US
By Rita Nazareth, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s gyrations shook markets anew, with stocks wiping out losses to extend their best weekly rally since 2023.
The rebound came as a selloff in longer-term Treasuries and the dollar abated, following a few chaotic days that underscored fears foreign investors are beating a retreat from American assets.
Volatility shows little signs of easing as concerns that President Donald Trump’s fast-evolving trade policy is not only shaking the global economy, but threatening the US status as the world’s safe haven.
The S&P 500 jumped about 2% on a report that a Federal Reserve official said the central bank is ready to help stabilize markets, if needed. US 30-year yields dropped, while still remaining up by 45 basis points since last Friday.
“Markets remain emotionally charged,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Markets are still searching for footing amid unresolved trade tensions, earnings uncertainty, and macroeconomic headwinds. While this week’s gains are encouraging, they shouldn’t be mistaken for a clear turning point.”
Not since the pandemic has there been this little clarity on the outlook for economies, markets and businesses, with China unleashing retaliatory measures and Trump pausing some levies only hours after they took effect.
Variations of “uncertainty,” “unknowns” and “turbulence” arose again and again as three of the biggest US banks kicked off the industry’s earnings reports on Friday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he expects “a kerfuffle” in Treasuries that prompts a Fed intervention.
If conditions become disorderly, the central bank “would absolutely be prepared” to help stabilize financial markets, Boston Fed President Susan Collins told the Financial Times.
For now, she noted markets are continuing to function well, with no liquidity concerns overall.
“Fed put in play. That should ease some anxiety for now,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park.
“The volatility itself is not a healthy sign. The sharp intraday rallies may seem comforting on the surface, but the whipsaws are a manifestation of overarching uncertainty.”
The S&P 500’s more than 10% intra intraweek trading range rivals the sharp price swings of the depths of the pandemic.
“Roller coaster is not a technical term, but it is probably the best adjective to describe price action across equity markets this week,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
“While there has been some recent technical progress, we recognize uncertainty and risks remain high, but argue it comes with the territory of any major market low.”
Signs of a capitulation were evident over the last week as momentum and breadth indicators reached levels commensurate with other major turning points in equity markets, he noted.
But this doesn’t imply stocks will immediately shoot higher or that the period of high volatility is over, Turnquist said.
“Sentiment is the main market driver as there is little visibility,” said Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments.
“The tariff pause raised hopes for a path to negotiated resolutions and that the administration is paying attention to the markets. Now we wait to see what some of these trade deals look like.”
Despite President Trump’s pause on broad tariffs, investors are still looking to shun US assets in favor of Europe and other developed markets, according to the latest MLIV Pulse survey.
Of the 203 respondents to a poll conducted April 9-11, after Trump announced a 90-day reprieve on levies for most countries, 81% plan to either keep their exposure to US assets the same or decrease it.
More than a quarter of respondents said they’re curbing their investment more than they had anticipated before the president unveiled global tariffs of as much as 50% earlier this month.
Investors should sell any stock rallies until the US and China de-escalate the trade war and the Fed steps in, said Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist said Trump’s tariffs and the resulting market turmoil were turning US exceptionalism into “US repudiation.”
He recommends a short position on stocks — until the S&P 500 hits 4,800 points — and a long bet on two-year Treasuries.
“There’s a decent chance the bottom is in,” said Jeffrey Buchbinder at LPL Financial.
“There’s plenty of evidence of a washout. But following the sharp rally off the lows, the risk-reward trade-off doesn’t look all that compelling, especially with the intensifying trade war with China.”
US first-quarter earnings season kicked off on Friday, with big banks reporting mixed results.
JPMorgan’s stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, but CEO Dimon struck a cautious tone about prospects for the US economy.
Wells Fargo & Co. missed analysts’ estimates for net interest income in the first quarter.
Morgan Stanley’s stock-traders delivered first-quarter revenue that exceeded analyst predictions.
To Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays Plc, until Treasuries stabilize and start to behave normally, risk assets will struggle.
While the rout in bonds eased somewhat on Friday, longer-dated yields saw one their biggest weekly jumps since the 1980s.
The rout, which was set off by the US trade war that’s shaken global markets, is threatening to deal another hit to the economy by pushing up borrowing costs more broadly.
It also cast doubt on Treasuries’ status as the world’s safe haven as they slid along with the stock market this week, sending investors into other assets like the Swiss franc, gold and the Japanese yen.
Several Wall Street economists maintained their forecasts for a sharp slowdown in US economic growth and warned recession risk is still elevated despite the Trump administration’s decision this week to delay major tariffs on a wide range of trading partners.
The lingering pessimism among economists contrasts somewhat with the signal from the stock market, which has rallied since Trump announced Wednesday that he was implementing a 90-day pause on previously announced “reciprocal” tariffs for countries other than China and raising the duty on Chinese imports to a whopping 145%.
In fact, Friday brought a fresh signal that consumers were queasy even before Wednesday’s policy shift, with a plunge in sentiment as inflation expectations soared to multi-decades highs.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1%
* The euro rose 1.2% to $1.1340
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.3075
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 143.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.9% to $83,782.45
* Ether rose 2.2% to $1,563.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.47%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 11 basis points to 4.75%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $61.50 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.7% to $3,231.73 an ounce
–With assistance from Robert Brand, Julien Ponthus and Anand
Krishnamoorthy.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Burdens are for shoulders strong enough to carry them. –Margaret Mitchell, 1900-1949.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com
April 10, 2025 Newsletter
Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
April 10, 1849: Safety pin patented.
April 10, 1942: Bataan Death March.
April 10, 1992: Financier Charles Keating Jr. was sentenced in Los Angeles to nine years in prison for swindling investors when his Lincoln Savings and Loan collapsed. (The convictions were later overturned).
April 10, 2001: Mercy killings become legal in the Netherlands as the Dutch senate approves a bill legalizing euthanasia for patients with unbearable terminal illness.
New ‘Kenbassador’ is just a kid from Akron
Mattel Inc. has unveiled its doll of basketball great LeBron James. He is the first professional male athlete to have his likeness depicted in a Ken doll.
Noah Wyle doesn’t dance
The star of the hit TV drama “The Pitt” chose not to dance his way through the spirit tunnel on “The Jennifer Hudson Show.” But his reason was sound: childhood trauma.
Ed Sheeran reveals a secret
Until a recent appearance on the “Call Her Daddy” podcast, no one knew the British singer/songwriter was reviewing movies on the Letterboxd app.
Seeing double at Augusta National
Nicolai and Rasmus Højgaard are expected to make history this week as the first set of twins to compete at the 2025 Masters. The 24-year-old Danish pair also competed at The Open and the PGA Championship in 2023 and 2024.
Hohle Fels water bird: The oldest depiction of a bird in the world
This tiny bird sculpture was created 40,000 years ago by early humans in Europe who carved the key animals in their lives. Read More.
Hubble zooms in on the glittering galaxy next door
The Small Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf galaxy about 200,000 light-years from the solar system, can be seen with the naked eye from the Southern Hemisphere. Read More.
Rainbow Mountains: China’s psychedelic landscape created when 2 tectonic plates collided
The colorful swirls and stripes that characterize China’s Rainbow Mountains would have remained hidden without the epic tectonic collision that created the Himalayas. Read More.
We don’t have to hate China. We don’t have to hate other people. Let’s figure out a way to work together. — Sen. Bernie Sanders, during a CNN town hall on Wednesday, hours after President Trump raised his tariffs on Beijing to 125%. In the event moderated by CNN’s Anderson Cooper, the Vermont independent fielded questions from audience members about Trump’s tariffs, the administration’s cuts to the federal workforce, Democratic struggles with young and Latino voters and more.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Karaman, Turkey
Snow-covered tulips in a field in Kızılkuyu village, Göynük district
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
London, England
Whale on the Wharf, a sculpture designed to raise awareness of the ocean plastic crisis. It is made from waste found on Hawaiian beaches and concrete made of spent coffee grounds from nearby cafes and restaurants
Photograph: Matt Alexander/PA
Hanoi, Vietnam
‘Sunset, looking west through a small tree on a hotel balcony.’
Photograph: Vincent Mortimer
Market Closes for April 10th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
39593.66 | -1014.79 |
| -2.50% | ||
| S&P 500 | 5268.05 | -188.85 |
| -3.46% | ||
| NASDAQ | 16387.31 | -737.66 |
| -4.31% | ||
| TSX | 23014.87 | -712.16 |
| -3.00% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 33952.12 | -656.88 |
| -1.90% | ||
| HANG SENG |
20681.78 | +417.29 |
| +2.06% | ||
| SENSEX | 73847.15 | -379.93 |
| -0.51% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 7913.25 | +233.77 |
| +3.04% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.236 | 3.193 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.552 | 3.475 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.4660 | 4.3315 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.9261 | 4.7367 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7167 | 0.7091 |
| US $ |
1.3952 | 1.4102 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5773 | 0.6339 |
| US $ |
1.1309 | 0.8842 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3075.50 | 3015.40 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 60.07 | 59.58 |
Market Commentary:
Investing is the greatest game in the world. It’s like baseball except that you never have to swing. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep,
you step up and hit it. –Warren Buffett, b. 1930.
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on shed more that than half of the 1,200 points gained a day earlier as trade tensions between the United States and China escalate, keeping fears around a global recession alive, although one economist sees Canada potentially to actually gaining more of the U.S. import market.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 712.16 points to close out the day at 23,014.87.
Among sectors, Energy, Information Technology and Base Metals were the biggest decliners, down 6.59%, 6.12% and 6.32%.
Reflecting the chaos around markets, U.S. President Donald Trump conceded today that there may be “transition problems” with his trade policies.
This came as the White House clarified the U.S. tariff on all Chinese goods is at least 145%, higher than the 125% previously thought.
It followed Trump’s move on Wednesday to pause some tariffs, with Canadian government officials among those left having to reach out to the U.S. administration to then ask if that order covered them or not.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 3%, with 10 of 11 sectors lower, led by information technology stocks.
As of market close, 206 of 218 stocks rose, while 12 fell.
Fortuna Mining Corp. led the advances, rising 6.8%, while Methanex Corp. decreased 14%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index fell 3% to 23,015
* 10 of 11 sectors fell
** Information technology declined, down 7%
** Materials gained, up 1.3%
* Crude oil fell 3.2% to $60/bbl
* Natgas fell 7.5% to $3.53/mmbtu
* Gold rose 3.6% to $3,166/oz
* Silver rose 2.3% to $31/oz
Advancers:
* Fortuna Mining Corp. (FVI CN) +6.8%
* Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET CN) +6.5%: Pet Valu Raised to Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$28.50
* Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR CN) +6%: Gold Producers Rise as Bullion Prices Climb on Tariff Chaos
* G. Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN CN) +5.8%
* Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG CN) +5.4%
Decliners:
* Methanex Corp. (MX CN) -14%
* Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET CN) -14%
* Bausch Health Cos. (BHC CN) -14%: Bausch & Lomb Agrees to End Vitamin-Patent Suit Ahead of Trial
* Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE CN) -13%: Tech, Consumer Stocks
Sink as Trade Fear Roils Markets (2)
* Enerflex Ltd. (EFX CN) -10%
US
By Rita Nazareth, Isabelle Lee, Denitsa Tsekova and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — Economic angst enveloped every corner of Wall Street as US-China trade tensions escalate, sparking a slide in stocks, the dollar and oil, with liquidations in US assets pointing to disorder in the financial system.
A day after the biggest stock-buying wave in years, assets tied to the economic cycle are sinking again, with President Donald Trump’s mollifying message on trade talks providing little relief.
Investors are rushing to game out how the effective freezing of Chinese trade will impact companies and growth.
The S&P 500 fell 3.5%.
The dollar saw its worst day since 2022.
A solid US sale of 30-year Treasuries failed to ignite a rally, but signaled appetite for bonds.
Market euphoria flipped back to unease despite Trump’s signals that he’s close to a first deal on tariffs — without naming the country.
Concern grew that an escalation of the trade war between the two biggest economies will bring lasting damage to global growth after the White House said US tariffs on China rose to 145%.
“Investors are sobering up and realizing that the US-China ‘food fight’ will probably get worse before it gets better,” said Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners.
“We’re waking up to the fact that a 10% base tariff will sting, 90 days could fly by and then the pain of higher tariffs could return, and China is fighting back hard.”
Just a day after financial markets cheered Trump’s decision to delay some of his tariff plans, the selloff in riskier corners of the market suggests growing skepticism that trade talks will be wrapped up in a timely manner, despite White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett saying the US is “well advanced” in its discussions with economic partners.
The first signs of a slowdown in global trade are already emerging as companies around the world hit their own pause button on orders and he continues to escalate his trade war with China.
If anything, Trump is extending the uncertainty that has already begun to drag on business and consumer sentiment.
“We still believe the anxiety around tariffs are alive and well. Volatility works in both directions — down and up. The path forward likely includes more market swings as we do not have a conclusion. In fact, we have the opposite, a likely extension of the tariff negotiation process,” said Nathan Thooft at Manulife Investment Management.
US-listed shares of Chinese companies fell on a report that the Trump administration is considering a push to delist the stocks of Chinese public companies that trade on American exchanges, citing unnamed sources.
United States Steel Corp. sank after Trump reiterated his long-held position that he doesn’t want to see the steelmaker owned by a Japanese company.
CarMax Inc. backed away from the timing of its financial goals amid trade war uncertainty.
The staggering US tariffs on China have triggered a tit- for-tat trade war that has unnerved global financial markets.
“The Trump administration’s stance has evolved from an all- out trade war against everyone, to a concentrated trade war against China,” said Nicolas Oudin of Gavekal Research.
“Most investors believe that China shot itself in the foot by retaliating. The view from Beijing is different. Many in China read the ‘Trump fold’ as a sign of US weakness, and therefore as a validation of China’s decision to escalate.”
Bridgewater Associates’ billionaire founder Ray Dalio said investors have been left with “an element of trauma or shock or fear” after all the global markets turmoil this week.
“It dramatically affected psychology and attitude about the United States’ reliability,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“It could have been handled better.”
“Tariff-driven inflation is still coming as a result of the trade war, even if the immediacy of the impact has been lessened,” said Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“The extent of the flow-through of higher tariffs into realized inflation remains an open question – one that isn’t likely to be resolved until well beyond the 90-day pause window.”
While data Thursday showed US inflation cooled broadly in March, the data was calculated prior to widespread levies that risk contributing to price pressures.
That may change in coming months as Trump’s higher levies filter through the economy.
And price declines for services like hotel stays and airfares may be a warning sign that some consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending
“Healthy drop in inflation or big drop in demand?” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“At the end of the day, we do need to see lower inflation to justify lower rates from the Fed and ease the burden on consumers. However, getting lower inflation due to a material drop in economic activity — and thereby jeopardizing the economy — isn’t the best route to take.”
Meantime, a growing chorus of Federal Reserve officials have raised concerns that aggressive trade policies could lead to a more lasting increase in inflation.
US central bankers have signaled they’re not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs further, instead preferring to wait and see how changing government policies impact the economy before adjusting rates.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 3.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 4.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 4.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.5%
* The euro rose 2.3% to $1.1200
* The British pound rose 1.1% to $1.2966
* The Japanese yen rose 2.1% to 144.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.3% to $79,592.45
* Ether fell 9.5% to $1,514.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 14 basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.3% to $60.31 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.9% to $3,172.81 an ounce
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Carter Johnson, Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian and Anand Krishnamoorthy.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
The beginning is the most important part of the work. -Plato, 428 BC-347 BC.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com
April 9, 2025, Newsletter
Tangents: It’s International Unicorn Day!
April 9, 1860: The world’s first recording of the human voice is created as French inventor Édouard-Léon Scott de Martinville uses his phonautograph to capture the French folk song “Au Claire de la lune.”
April 9, 1865: US Civil War ends.
April 9, 1866: Civil Rights Bill passed.
April 9, 1959: NASA announced the selection of America’s first seven astronauts: Scott Carpenter, Gordon Cooper, John Glenn, Gus Grissom, Wally Schirra,
Alan Shepard and Donald Slayton. Go to article.
April 9, 2000: The New Yorker publishes “One Day – and one Night – in the Kitchen at Les Halles” by Anthony Boudrain.
Charles Beaudelaire, writer, b. 1821.
J. William Fullbright, politician, b.1905.
One of the largest carnaval celebrations on East Coast canceled
Organizers of El Carnaval de Puebla decided to call off the popular event celebrating Mexican culture and history out of fear ICE agents might show up and try to arrest attendees.
How to avoid this ‘silent killer’ while traveling
Carbon monoxide, which has no taste, odor or color, has been tied to the recent deaths of several Americans who were traveling abroad. Here are some precautions you can take to limit exposure on the road.
British pop star diagnosed with ‘17th century pirate disease’
Robbie Williams recently sought help to find out why he was feeling so anxious and depressed lately. Turns out his diet was part of the problem.
Scientists reveal new hydrogen-powered ‘robot horse’ that could one day take you up a mountain
Japanese engineers have unveiled a concept design of the Corleo, a four-legged robotic horse that could one day carry people across a vast range of terrains. Read More.
NASA rover watches ‘fiendish’ Martian ‘dust devils’ collide in rare case of extraterrestrial cannibalism
Video footage captured by NASA’s Perseverance rover shows a small “dust devil” merging with a much larger twister on the surface of Mars. Read More.
Amateur astronomer discovers bright green comet SWAN25F — and you can see it too
Comet SWAN25F was discovered using photos from the European Space Agency’s SOHO spacecraft and can currently be spied using backyard equipment — but it could also become visible to the naked eye in the next few weeks. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Sakarya, Turkey
An aerial view of the meanders of the Sakarya River on the Karagol Plateau. The river originates in central Anatolia and reaches the Black Sea
Photograph: Seyit Konyali/Anadolu/Getty Images
London, UK
She says: ‘Everything feels so dark right now, it’s good to know the light is coming back’
Photograph: Sarah Lee/The Guardian
Jabalpur, India
Devotees from the Jain community take part in a mass recitation of a mantra on Vishwa Navkar Mahamantra Day
Photograph: Uma Shankar Mishra/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 9th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
40608.45 | +2962.86 |
| +7.87% | ||
| S&P 500 | 5456.90 | +474.13 |
| +9.52% | ||
| NASDAQ | 17124.97 | +1857.06 |
| +12.16% | ||
| TSX | 23727.03 | +1220.14 |
| +5.42% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 31714.03 | -1298.55 |
| -3.93% | ||
| HANG SENG |
20264.49 | +136.81 |
| +0.68% | ||
| SENSEX | 73847.15 | -379.93 |
| -0.51% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 7679.48 | -231.05 |
| -2.92% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.193 | 3.130 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.475 | 3.457 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.3315 | 4.2929 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7367 | 4.7647 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7091 | 0.7031 |
| US $ |
1.4102 | 1.4223 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5448 | 0.6473 |
| US $ |
1.0953 | 0.9129 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3015.40 | 3118.10 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 59.58 | 61.99 |
Market Commentary:
You are as old as the risks you take. In many ways, aging is not the process of growing old, but rather the slow death of becoming overly protective, scared, and worried about losing what you have. Youth is found in the energy of going for it, taking the risk, and trusting that you’ll figure it out along the way. –James Clear.
Canada
By Stephanie Hughes
(Bloomberg) — Canadian equities staged their strongest rebound in five years as US President Donald Trump’s move to pause tariffs on many countries triggered a broader market relief rally.
Canada’s benchmark S&P/TSX Composite index gained 5.4% over the trading day on Wednesday, closing at 23,727.
The gauge joined other North American markets in rallying after Trump said he would halt levies for 90 days on countries that didn’t retaliate against his so-called reciprocal tariffs.
Brian Madden, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel Inc., said the market’s reaction is “directionally logical,” and “the magnitude is roughly proportional to what we saw in the downdraft earlier this week and last week.”
Technology stocks led the index higher, buoyed by Celestica Inc.’s 18% gain, which closed out the trading day at C$115.90.
Shopify Inc. also rose by 18%, to C$129.09, and BlackBerry Ltd. jumped 12% to C$4.60.
Some of Canada’s most tariff-exposed names also enjoyed a relief rally.
Bombardier Inc., which sources aircraft parts from Canada and the US, gained 14% and closed at C$85.51. BRP Inc., which has deep product manufacturing and distribution roots in Mexico and the US, gained 11%.
Canadian automakers also rose, with Linamar Corp. gaining 9.1%, Magna International Inc. 8.1% and Martinrea International Inc. 7.3%.
“We don’t anticipate a full recovery to the February high in the short term — rather gradually as the chaos dissipates,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
But Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management Inc., is still cautious.
“The market seems to be treating this like it’s over and I’m not convinced it’s over yet,” he said.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 5.4% to 23,727
* 11 of 11 sectors rose
** Information technology gained, up 13%
** Materials gained, up 6.6%
* Crude oil rose 4.7% to $62/bbl
* Natgas rose 8.5% to $3.76/mmbtu
* Gold rose 4% to $3,087/oz
* Silver rose 4.2% to $31/oz
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 5.4%, with 11 of 11 sectors higher, led by information technology stocks.
As of market close, 186 of 218 stocks fell, while 30 rose.
Quebecor Inc. led the declines, falling 2.1%, while Baytex Energy Corp. increased 22%.
Advancers:
* Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE CN) +22%: Baytex Energy Affirmed at BB- by Fitch
* Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET CN) +20%
* Aritzia Inc. (ATZ CN) +19%
* Celestica Inc. (CLS CN) +18%
* Shopify Inc. (SHOP CN) +18%: Affirm & Shopify Accelerate Global Expansion of Shop Pay
Decliners:
* Quebecor Inc. (QBR/B CN) -2.1%
* Hydro One Ltd. (H CN) -2%: Ontario Spread Tightens: Canada Provinces
* Emera Inc. (EMA CN) -1.5%
* Fortis Inc/Canada (FTS CN) -1.2%
* Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO CN) -1.1%
US
By Natalia Kniazhevich, Norah Mulinda, Bernard Goyder and Jessica Menton
(Bloomberg) — The wild ride on US stock markets took a dizzying turn Wednesday afternoon when President Donald Trump announced a pause on some of his harshest tariffs, propelling the S&P 500 Index to its biggest one-day gain since 2008.
The S&P 500 closed 9.5% higher and the Nasdaq 100 Index surged 12%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 7.9%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 18.7% and marked the biggest jump on record.
Roughly 30 billion shares traded on US exchanges on Wednesday.
That’s the most ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back nearly 17 years.
Trump on Wednesday afternoon said he “authorized a 90 day pause” on reciprocal tariffs for countries that didn’t retaliate against the US.
The pause does not include tariffs on China, which the White House raised to 125% after the Asian nation retaliated earlier in the day with an 84% levy on US imports.
“It’s crazy!” said Frank Monkam, head of Macro Trading at Buffalo Bayou Commodities, who was rushing back to his desk from a meeting after seeing a headline.
“Eventually it does look like a Trump put but I don’t think we’re out of the woods.”
The President’s post fueled buying across all types of investors, from the retail crowd to hedge funds to algorithmic trading strategies.
The S&P 500 notched its biggest bottom-to-top intraday reversal — at nearly 11% — since the height of the global financial crisis in November 2008 and even higher than the Flash Crash in May 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s basket of the most-shorted stocks jumped 17.34%, beating the S&P 500’s gain.
The move comes as traders rushed to cover short positions they accumulated amid the market downturn.
last week, hedge funds registered short bets in US macro products such as indexes and ETFs at the highest weekly volume on record.
“We currently have aggressive covering among hedge funds and long only buying in tech that is ramping with each leg higher in the market,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner John Flood wrote in a note to clients at 2:15 p.m., after Trump announced the pause.
On Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s prime brokerage desk warned that a market rally would force hedge funds to cover short positions that have been added “aggressively.”
Rapid stock buying by leveraged exchange-traded funds also contributed to the velocity of the move.
“Levered ETFs mechanically adding long equity exposure supercharged the rally,” according to Daniel Kirsch, head of options for the brokerage Piper Sandler & Co.
He said traders moved quickly to unwind downside hedges, which also contributed to the move.
UBS Group AG’s trading desk also sees clients unwinding hedges, while “a high level of skepticism remains despite the headlines,” said Michael Romano, the firm’s head of hedge fund equity derivative sales.
Retail traders were among the most active buyers Wednesday.
As of 2:00 p.m. Wednesday they already bought $3.3 billion of equities, which hit the third-largest amount on record for the first 4.5 hours of US trading, according to Emma Wu, JPMorgan’s global quantitative and derivatives strategist.
Shares of Nvidia Corp. soared 18.03%, Delta Air Lines Inc. jumped 23.38%, Advanced Micro Devices added 23.82% and Tesla Inc. rallied 22.69%%.
Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX collapsed to 35 from 50.
Fast-money Commodity Trading Advisers, or CTAs, which follow the market direction rather than fundamental factors, also turned into buyers after the S&P 500 hit 5,425.
Before today’s jump, their positioning dropped to the lowest levels since March 2023.
“The Trump put potentially catalyzed a massive whipsaw in CTA positioning,” said Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.
“Expect CTAs to be forced to buy risk assets including equity indices.”
Earlier in the session, Trump indicated he was at least paying attention to the market volatility, writing on Truth Social that “this is a great time to buy” and urging Americans to “BE COOL” amid the turbulence.
The latest change of direction shook investors across Wall Street.
“It feels like his advisers have talked Trump off the cliff,” said Laura Lau, senior vice-president and chief investment officer at Brompton Corp.
She said there was still a lack of clarity on which countries were spared from tariffs for now, and how dramatically Trump is still prepared to escalate his trade war with China.
“It’s hard to have a fundamental view,” she said.
That the reprieve excludes China was cause for some concern on Wall Street.
“Respite? Further economic suicide? It will all depend on where you source product from of course, and unfortunately about $450 billion is still being imported from China,” Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group wrote in a note titled “Dramamine Please.”
Brent Kochuba, Founder of SpotGamma, said the pause was “very bullish for markets short-term” but “it doesn’t solve the tariff problem.”
The sharp rally comes as US stocks had been at the most oversold since the depths of the pandemic, and traders were looking for a market bottom.
–With assistance from Matthew Griffin and Esha Dey.
By Anand Krishnamoorthy(Bloomberg):
By Rita Nazareth, Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee and Denitsa Tsekova (Bloomberg):
Key Events This Week:
* US CPI, jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman’s nomination hearing in Senate for the position of vice chair for supervision, Thursday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid speak, Thursday
* US PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Major banks reporting earnings include JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams and Alberto Musalem speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 9.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 12%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 6.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 14%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 8.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0934
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2800
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 147.90 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 6.8% to $82,312.53
* Ether rose 11% to $1,647.34
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.33%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 17 basis points to 4.78%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.8% to $62.45 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 3.7% to $3,093.53 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Katie Greifeld, Robert Brand, Julien Ponthus, Anand Krishnamoorthy, Winnie Hsu, Ruth Carson, Rob Verdonck and Phil Kuntz.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
You were born to win, but to be a winner, you must plan to win, prepare to win, and expect to win. –Zig Ziglar, 1926-2012.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com
April 8, 2025, Newsletter
Dear Friends
Tangents: Buddha’s Birthday; Siddhartha, The Enlightened One.
April 8, 1862: John D. Lynde patents the aerosol dispenser, revolutionizing the packaging and delivery of products like paints, cleaners, and personal care items.
April 8, 1952: President Harry S. Truman seized the steel industry to avert a nationwide strike. Go to article
.
Florida wins NCAA men’s basketball championship
The Gators came from behind last night to defeat the Houston Cougars 65-63. This is Florida’s third national title; it would’ve been Houston’s first.
Celebrity feud ends
Madonna says she and Elton John “finally buried the hatchet” over the weekend after trading barbs for decades. When she went backstage following his performance on “Saturday Night Live,” John reportedly asked for her forgiveness — and she gave it.
Saturday… what a day
“Happy Days” stars Ron Howard, Henry Winkler, Anson Williams and Don Most reunited last Saturday at Steel City Con outside of Pittsburgh. The cast joined a panel discussion about their hit TV series and were honored by the Allegheny County Council, which declared April 5 as Happy Days Day.
Tracy Chapman is back
And she’s belatedly celebrating the 35th anniversary of her self-titled debut album by re-releasing it in vinyl. The usually reclusive singer last returned to the limelight at the 2024 Grammys to perform her hit song “Fast Car” with country star Luke Combs, who also released a cover of it.
Adorable dire wolf pups mark ‘world’s first de-extinction,’ Colossal Biosciences says
Dire wolves, made famous by HBO’s Game of Thrones, have been extinct for around 12,500 years. But thanks to genetic engineers at biotech company Colossal Biosciences, these majestic predators are back.
Read More.
How a ‘mudball’ meteorite survived space to land in the jungles of Central America
“The fall of Aguas Zarcas was huge news in the country. No other fireball was as widely reported and then recovered as stones on the ground in Costa Rica in the past 150 years.” Read More.
130,000-year-old mammoth calf smells like ‘fermented earth and flesh,’ necropsy reveals
Researchers have performed a necropsy on a 130,000-year-old baby mammoth preserved in the Siberian permafrost. Read More
AI creates better and funnier memes than people, study shows — even when people use AI for help
In a study, memes created by OpenAI’s GPT-4o model were, on average, rated funnier, more creative and more shareable than those created by humans. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Mongolians
Horses walk along a road overlooking the smoggy skyline of Mongolia’s capital, Ulaanbaatar.
Photographs: Andy Hall for the Observer
Konya, Turkey
Great white pelicans rest on the shores of Lake Çavuşçu as they migrate from north from Africa
Photograph: Seyit Konyali/Anadolu/Getty Images
Spring in London
Signs of spring as a plant comes into bud.
Photograph: Sarah Lee/The Guardian
Market Closes for April 8th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
37645.59 | -320.01 |
| -0.84% | ||
| S&P 500 | 4982.77 | -79.48 |
| -1.57% | ||
| NASDAQ | 15267.91 | -335.35 |
| -2.15% | ||
| TSX | 22506.89 | -352.57 |
| -1.54% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 33012.58 | +1876.00 |
| +6.03% | ||
| HANG SENG |
20127.68 | +299.38 |
| +1.51% | ||
| SENSEX | 74227.08 | +1089.18 |
| +1.49% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 7910.53 | +208.45 |
| +2.71% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.130 | 2.879 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.457 | 3.189 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.2929 | 3.9943 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7647 | 4.4090 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7014 | 0.7031 |
| US $ |
1.4257 | 1.4223 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5651 | 0.6389 |
| US $ |
1.0978 | 0.9109 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3014.75 | 3118.10 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 59.58 | 61.99 |
Market Commentary:
Letting your emotions override your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure. – J. Welles Wilder Jr., 1935-2021.
Canada
By Geoffrey Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks dropped for a fourth straight session, marking their longest losing streak since December as fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans continues and oil prices declined.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index erased an opening gain to close 1.5% lower on Tuesday as key North American equities gauges swung sharply.
Six stocks dropped for every one that gained as every sector in the Toronto market ended Tuesday’s session lower.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., the country’s largest oil and gas producer, was the biggest drag on the index as oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel.
The Canadian benchmark, which entered a correction last week during Friday’s sharp selloff, swung nearly 5% over the course of the session.
The S&P/TSX has now posted three straight intraday moves of more than 4% — the last time the index has posted such a prolonged streak of volatility outside of the pandemic was in 2011.
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.5%, with 11 of 11 sectors lower, led by health care stocks.
As of market close, 170 of 218 stocks fell, while 48 rose.
Tilray Brands Inc. led the declines, falling 21%, while Kinaxis Inc. increased 3.1%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index fell 1.5% to 22,507
* 11 of 11 sectors fell
** Health care declined, down 5.7%
** Communication services declined, down 3.7%
* S&P 500 Index fell 1.6% to 4,983
* Nasdaq 100 Index fell 2% to 17,090
* Crude oil fell 3.8% to $58/bbl
* Natgas fell 4.3% to $3.50/mmbtu
* Gold rose 0.7% to $2,973/oz
* Silver rose 0.4% to $30/oz
* Kinaxis Inc. (KXS CN) +3.1%
* Iamgold Corp. (IMG CN) +2.4%
* K92 Mining Inc. (KNT CN) +2.1%: K92 Mining 1Q Gold Production at Kainantu 47,817 Oz AuEq
* Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA CN) +1.7%
* Definity Financial Corp. (DFY CN) +1.4%
Decliners
* Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY CN) -21%: Tilray Brands Shares Tumble as Adjusted Ebitda Misses (1)
* Novagold Resources Inc. (NG CN) -12%
* Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET CN) -11%
* Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE CN) -11%
* Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL CN) -9.3%
US
By Rita Nazareth, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — Wild swings lashed Wall Street for a fourth straight session as back-and-forth trade threats between the US and China knocked down stocks, erasing an earlier rally that was the biggest since 2022.
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, leaving it on the brink of a bear market.
Hopes for a quick end to extreme volatility were dashed after a White House official said the US is moving forward with tariffs on China as high as 104%.
Equities extended losses as Chinese Premier Li Qiang said his country has ample policy tools to “fully offset” negative external shocks.
Treasury two-year yields tumbled as traders boosted bets on rate cuts.
Tuesday’s slide extended the S&P 500’s more than 10% drop since the president detailed worldwide levies last Wednesday and at one point pushed the gauge down 20% since its record close in February, though stocks bounced at that level.
It was also a fourth day of nearly unprecedented volume on US equity markets, with more than 23 billion shares changing hands.
“The volatility reflects the new situation in which no one knows what the rules of road are, or even what the desired destination is,” said Que Nguyen at Research Affiliates LLC.
“Until investors reset expectations or those rules and goals are better understood, markets will continue these wild swings between hope and fear.”
Trump spent the final hours before his sweeping tariffs were set for full implementation lining up talks with key US allies, but hopes for a last-minute agreement with China appeared distant.
Across world markets, investors have been gripped by fears that something may break in the financial plumbing amid the cross-asset volatility, spurring speculation the Federal Reserve would need to speed up rate cuts to prevent a recession even with inflation jitters running rampant.
Fed Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly said the US central bank can take its time before making any adjustments to interest rates as it waits to see how trade policy changes play out.
Her Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee said tariffs are “way bigger” than he anticipated.
“The fundamental reason for the drawdown has been policy uncertainty – it’s functionally impossible to put in a bottom until that fundamental reason has been resolved, or at least until there is directional clarity on it,” said Scott Ladner at Horizon Investments.
The stock market is particularly vulnerable to wild swings due to a combination of thin liquidity and headline-driven algorithmic trading.
According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk, the gap between market volume and liquidity in S&P 500 futures is currently the widest in the bank’s data set.
“This is what happens in highly volatile markets — they overshoot in both directions,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
“The selling gets overdone, but so does the knee-jerk reaction to buy and chase.”
As Trump’s trade war sent markets into a tailspin, Bank of America Corp. clients posted their fourth-biggest inflow into US equities on record last week: $8 billion.
Institutional clients, retail traders and hedge funds were all net buyers, strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote in a Tuesday research note.
Warnings
Meantime, warnings from Wall Street strategists keep piling up on the dour outlook for stocks.
BlackRock Inc. strategists Jean Boivin and Wei Li downgraded US equities on Monday to neutral from overweight on a three-month horizon, saying they expect “more pressure on risk assets in the near term given the major escalation in global trade tensions.”
And a strategy team at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., including Peter Oppenheimer and Lilia Peytavin, said the equity selloff could well turn into a longer-lasting cyclical bear market as recession risks mount.
Key Events This Week:
* Federal Reserve minutes, Wednesday
* Fed’s Tom Barkin speaks, Wednesday
* China PPI, CPI, Thursday
* US CPI, jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman’s nomination hearing in Senate for the position of vice chair for supervision, Thursday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid speak, Thursday
* US PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Major banks reporting earnings include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams and Alberto Musalem speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0955
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2772
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 146.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $76,752.34
* Ether fell 6.7% to $1,465.6
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.63%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.60%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.5% to $58.56 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Robert Brand, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Aya Wagatsuma.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
The eternal mystery of the world is its comprehensibility. The fact that it is comprehensible is a miracle. –Albert Einstein, 1879-1955.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com
Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday.
April 7, 1805: Beethoven’s Eroica premieres.
April 7, 1947: Auto pioneer Henry Ford died at age 83. Go to article.
1948: WHO founded.
April 7, 1969: The internet is born. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) awards a contract to BBN Technologies to build a precursor of today’s World Wide Web.
William Wordsworth, poet, b.1770.
Billie Holiday, singer, b. 1915.
Quantum computers will be a dream come true for hackers, risking everything from military secrets to bank information. Can we stop them?
Quantum computers are coming. And when they arrive, they are going to upend the way we protect sensitive data.
Unlike classical computers, quantum computers harness quantum mechanical effects — like superposition and entanglement — to process and store data in a form beyond the 0s and 1s that are digital bits. These “quantum bits” — or qubits — could open up massive computing power.
That means quantum computers may solve complex problems that have stymied scientists for decades, such as modeling the behavior of subatomic particles or cracking the “traveling salesman” problem, which aims to calculate the shortest trip between a bunch of cities that returns to its original destination. But this massive power also may give hackers the upper hand. Read More
Unknown human lineage lived in ‘Green Sahara’ 7,000 years ago, ancient DNA reveals
Researchers analyzed the ancient DNA of two mummies from what is now Libya to learn about people who lived in the “Green Sahara” 7,000 years ago. Read More.
Thousands of strange, blobby creatures are washing up on California beaches
What are the blue blobs washing up on California beaches? What to know about these strange sea creatures. Read More.
Mining for big bucks
“A Minecraft Movie,” starring Jack Black and Jason Momoa, grossed $157 million at the box office this weekend. It was the biggest opening weekend of the year and the biggest domestic opening weekend for a film based on a video game.
Bad things happen in threes
Did you catch the third season finale of “The White Lotus” last night? I won’t give anything away if you’re behind, but it certainly ended with a bang.
| 895:That’s the number of goals 39-year-old Alex Ovechkin scored to surpass hockey legend Wayne Gretzky as the NHL’s all-time leading scorer. |
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Venice, Italy
Citizens participate in reforestation day on the island of Lio Piccolo in the northern lagoon of Venice which is being replanted with 16,000 new trees to protect the salt marsh ecosystem
Photograph: Simone Padovani/Getty Images
Adyapeath, India
A young girl dressed as a living goddess takes part in the Bengali Hindu festival, Basanti Durga Puja
Photograph: Bikas Das/AP
Singapore
Cargo ships docked along the strait in Singapore
Photograph: Mohd Rasfan/AFP/Getty
Market Closes for April 7th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
37965.60 | -349.26 |
| -0.91% | ||
| S&P 500 | 5062.25 | -11.83 |
| -0.23% | ||
| NASDAQ | 15603.26 | +15.47 |
| +0.10% | ||
| TSX | 22859.46 | -334.01 |
| -1.44% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 31136.58 | -2644.00 |
| -7.83% | ||
| HANG SENG |
19828.30 | -3021.51 |
| -13.22% | ||
| SENSEX | 73137.90 | -2226.79 |
| -2.95% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 7702.08 | -352.90 |
| -4.38% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.063 | 2.879 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.353 | 3.189 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1835 | 3.9943 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.6188 | 4.4090 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7023 | 0.7031 |
| US $ |
1.4240 | 1.4223 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5546 | 0.6432 |
| US $ |
1.0917 | 0.9159 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3054.50 | 3118.10 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 60.70 | 61.99 |
Market Commentary:
Quality means doing it right when no one is looking.-Henry Ford, 1863-1947.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.4%, with nine of 11 sectors lower, led by consumer staples stocks.
As of market close, 203 of 218 stocks fell, while 14 rose.
NGEx Minerals Ltd. led the declines, falling 8.2%, while Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. increased 8.6%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index fell 1.4% to 22,859
* Nine of 11 sectors fell
** Consumer staples declined, down 2.6%
** Information technology gained, up 1.2%
* S&P 500 Index fell 0.2% to 5,062
* Nasdaq 100 Index rose 0.2% to 17,431
* Crude oil fell 1.6% to $61/bbl
* Natgas fell 4.8% to $3.65/mmbtu
* Gold fell 1.5% to $2,968/oz
* Silver rose 2.4% to $30/oz
Advancers:
* Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN CN) +8.6%
* Celestica Inc. (CLS CN) +6.5%
* Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR CN) +4.9%
* Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG CN) +3%
* NuVista Energy Ltd. (NVA CN) +3%
Decliners:
* NGEx Minerals Ltd. (NGEX CN) -8.2%
* TMX Group Ltd. (X CN) -5.9%: TMX Group March Average Daily Volume 648.8M Vs. 563.1M Y/y
* ATS Corp. (ATS CN) -5.2%
* Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO CN) -5.1%
* Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS CN) -4.6%: Canadian Bank Stocks Tumble as Analyst Cuts Earnings Estimates
(Bloomberg) — The Canadian dollar fell following a tough Monday for stock markets in Asia and Europe.
In the US, traders increased their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
“The CAD is remarkably stable considering the carnage playing out in stocks,” wrote Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne.
“Heightened stock volatility is playing into the CAD’s fair value estimate more obviously now, with equilibrium moving back up to 1.4133 today.”
* USD/CAD rises 0.3% to 1.4258 as of 7:57 a.m. Toronto time
* WTI crude futures drop 2.6% to $60.39 per barrel
* USD/CAD one-month implied volatility is at 8.4625%, up from 7.945% on Friday
* US two-year yield exceeds Canadian counterpart by 128.1bps, down from 128.9bps on Friday; the 10-year yield spread is 110.9bps in favor of US vs 111.5bps in favor of US the previous session
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Waves of volatility shook markets anew, with stocks, bonds and commodities getting whipsawed by another deluge of headlines around President Donald Trump’s trade war that only reinforced the clouds hanging over the outlook for investing and the economy.
Traders looking for equities to bottom after a selloff of trillions of dollars were faced with a series of twists and turns on Monday.
While the S&P 500 moved away from the threshold of a bear market, its bottom-to-top intraday reversal was the biggest since 2020 when Covid upended global trading.
Treasuries weakened in a volatile session, with yields across all maturities higher by over 10 basis points — a stark turnaround from the plunge earlier in the day.
Trump said he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to implement additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite outreach from trading partners eager to avoid the levies, while still signaling he could be open to some negotiations.
As markets wobbled, some Wall Street titans sounded the alarm.
Bill Ackman said the US is “heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter.”
Boaz Weinstein predicted the “avalanche has really just started.”
And Jamie Dimon said it “may be disastrous in the long run.”
“For now, it looks like news out of Washington will continue to drive the market’s swings, one way or the other,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“The other side of the coin is that some of the market’s notable lows over the past few decades have been preceded by similar levels of volatility, although it’s always impossible to know when prices will eventually find their bottom.”
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, those looking for a V-shaped recovery in the stock market will likely be very disappointed.
“We should see a strong bounce at some point soon, but the process of repricing the market to its realistic economic outlook will take time,” Maley said.
“There will be plenty of time to get aggressive when it becomes more evident that the worst of the decline is behind us.”
HSBC strategist Max Kettner is making the case for a “very short-term bounce” in stock markets, with the Magnificent Seven possibly benefiting the most.
However, any rebound will only set the stage for another leg lower, he warns.
To Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, investors should be prepared for the S&P 500 to drop further if tariff angst doesn’t subside.
“Many metrics are at panic levels associated with meaningful bottoms over the past 40 years,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG.
“The issue is when you get into the capitulation zone, markets often move beyond what many think is likely or possible.”
Consider the move in Wall Street’s measure of equity swings.
The VIX pushed away from the 60 level hit earlier Monday, but the futures curve is signaling that volatility may remain elevated for months — creating a challenging environment.
Major selloffs have typically reached their culmination amid a level of fear and loathing that hasn’t been yet been hit, at least as measured by the VIX.
The index topped out at nearly 66 in August during the market rout sparked by the unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade and recession jitters, and it hit 85 in the 2020 selloff fueled by the Covid pandemic.
In 2008, it rocketed to just short of 90 as worries over the great financial crisis hammered stocks.
“You’ll hear all sorts of opinions as to when and where the market will bottom out, but they’re all guesses,” Bespoke Investment Group strategists noted. “No one knows at this point.”
One silver lining is that the so-called smart money might be getting close to a tactical bottom.
Hedge funds increased short positions across a range of US macro products by 22% last week, marking the largest jump in more than a decade, wrote Vincent Lin at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
What lingers as a big risk, though, is that the retail crowd has yet to sell US equities meaningfully, presenting an additional risk to the stock market.
“The swift and sudden stock market decline is a repricing to reflect an impending recession from the burden of tariffs,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners.
“Markets won’t rebound until tariffs are negotiated and reduced, until valuations move even lower to very compelling levels, and until fundamentals improve, and none of these factors are in the cards at this time.”
The slump in equities has taken US equity valuations to the lowest level since late 2023.
But to Larry Tentarelli at the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, investors should maintain defensive positioning, above average cash levels, and reduced if any new buying until volatility comes down.
“Market direction will be based on the tariff news cycle to start the week,” he said.
“If there is a material, positive change in the news cycle, markets could benefit. Until then, continue to expect very wide trading ranges.”
Wall Street forecasters are racing to temper their views on US equities as Trump’s sweeping tariffs threaten to upend the global economy.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas slashed his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 5,200 from 6,500 previously.
Oppenheimer & Co.’s John Stoltzfus — the biggest bull among strategists until March — cut his outlook to 5,950 points from 7,100.
Strategists at Evercore ISI, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA have also reduced targets in recent days.
In a note to clients Monday, Stoltzfus said uncertainty was “at levels investors find hard to embrace.”
This is being combined with “a negative pitch book that seemingly projects negative outcomes to infinity.”
“Our base case is that after an initial phase in which tariffs could rise further, US effective tariff rates should start to come down from 3Q,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
We also expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 75-100 basis points to support the economy.
In this scenario, we believe the S&P 500 can recover to 5,800 by year-end.
A brutal global selloff in financial markets triggered by Trump’s burgeoning trade war raised speculation on Monday the Federal Reserve may intervene to stem the losses.
Don’t count on it, several Fed watchers said.
With inflation still running above the US central bank’s target and levy-induced price hikes on the horizon, economists and market analysts said they believe Fed officials will wait for the impact to hit the real economy before they lower interest rates.
That could take months to show up in official data.
“If we don’t get a recession, it’s going to be hard for the Fed to look through this inflation in the short run,” Michael Gapen, chief US economist for Morgan Stanley said Monday on Bloomberg TV.
“The Fed’s going to be on hold for the foreseeable future.”
Now that the US has announced broader tariffs, what are you doing with your investments?
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0914
* The British pound fell 1.4% to $1.2712
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 148.09 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $78,160.98
* Ether fell 1.8% to $1,546.16
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 22 basis points to 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 17 basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $60.99 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 2.2% to $2,970.77 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
-With assistance from Robert Brand, Julien Ponthus, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Richard Henderson.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision. –Maimonides, 1138-1204.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com
April 3, 2025, Newsletter
Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
April 3, 1860: Pony Express established.
April 3, 1973: The first public mobile telephone call is placed on a Manhattan sidewalk, with Motorola’s Martin Cooper calling Joel Engel of Bell Labs (a competitor) to taunt them.
April 3, 2000: A federal judge ruled that Microsoft Corp. had violated U.S. antitrust laws.
Jane Goodall, conservationist, b. 1934.
Maron Brando, actor, b. 1924.
‘Be ready to move quickly to higher ground’: Forecaster delivers ominous warning of 1-in-1,000-year flood coming for central US
Forecasters have warned of historic flooding in the central U.S. this week, anticipating multiple bouts of heavy rainfall and extreme thunderstorms. Read More
Scientists drilled into Belize’s Great Blue Hole and discovered a worrying trend
Tropical storms have been steadily increasing in frequency over the past 5,700 years, new evidence from sediment in the Great Blue Hole reveals, with a massive spike in the past two decades. Read More.
North America is ‘dripping’ down into Earth’s mantle, scientists discover
Seismic mapping of North America has revealed that an ancient slab of crust buried beneath the Midwest is causing the crust above it to “drip” and suck down rocks from across the continent. Read More.
Your brain starts eating itself during a marathon, study finds
Under extreme metabolic conditions, like a marathon, the brain may turn to cellular fat stores to maintain function, according to a new study. Read More.
Watch this humanoid robot perform a side flip for the first time
Unitree’s G1 demonstrates a new level of robotic agility with a complex movement following an AI software update. Read More.
Luxury liner ends voyage with on-board outbreak
A norovirus outbreak on the Queen Mary 2 left more than 240 people feeling sick at sea. The infected passengers and crew members had to be quarantined to avoid further spreading the highly contagious stomach bug.
Get out your wallets, gamers
Nintendo has revealed new details about the Nintendo Switch 2, the soon-to-be-released sequel to its wildly successful hybrid game console. Yes, there are lots of new features to enjoy. But, the Switch 2 is also going to cost $150 more than its predecessor.
Rare statues discovered in Pompeii tomb
Archeologists excavating a massive tomb in Pompeii said the statues they found of a toga-clad man and a woman shed new light on the power held by priestesses in the ancient city.
‘Whoop, there she is!’
Former Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce and his wife, podcaster Kylie Kelce, announced the arrival of their fourth daughter on Instagram this week. Jason also introduced her to his younger brother, Travis, on the “New Heights” podcast, which they co-host, and revealed the baby’s name.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Lisse, Netherlands
Spring bloom at the Keukenhof flower garden
Photograph: Molly Quell/AP
Washington DC, US
People take part in the Blossom kite festival
Photograph: Bonnie Cash/UPI/Rex/Shutterstock
Gölbaşı district, Turkey
An aerial view of flamingos on a reservoir, which is home to many bird species.
Photograph: Rasit Aydogan/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 3nd, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
40545.93 | -1679.39 |
| -3.98% | ||
| S&P 500 | 5396.52 | -274.45 |
| -4.84% | ||
| NASDAQ | 16550.61 | -1050.44 |
| -5.97% | ||
| TSX | 24335.77 | -971.42 |
| -3.84% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 34735.93 | -989.94 |
| -2.77% | ||
| HANG SENG |
22849.81 | -352.72 |
| -1.52% | ||
| SENSEX | 76295.36 | -322.08 |
| -0.42% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 8474.74 | -133.74 |
| -1.55% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
2.928 | 2.915 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.238 | 3.184 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0286 | 4.1307 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.4703 | 4.5004 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7100 | 0.7022 |
| US $ |
1.4085 | 1.4240 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5562 | 0.6426 |
| US $ |
1.1048 | 0.9051 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3119.75 | 3133.70 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 66.95 | 71.71 |
Market Commentary:
The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different. -Peter Drucker, 1909-2005.
Canada
By Stephanie Hughes and Geoffrey Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks had their worst trading session since the Covid-19 pandemic after US President Donald Trump applied tariffs to most of his country’s trading partners.
Despite the tumble, Canadian equities outperformed their peers in the US.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 3.8%, the most since June 2020, closing at 24,335.77.
The S&P 500 Index, meanwhile, closed down 4.8%.
Canada’s outperformance against US benchmarks Thursday was likely driven by the fact the country was spared additional Trump tariffs.
“The negative impacts of the trade wars was clearly priced into Canada more than the United States,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.
“It’s really interesting that we’re not down as much as the US even though resources are getting crushed.”
Canadian equities were upgraded two notches to overweight from underweight by Scotiabank analysts including Hugo Ste- Marie, who said the country “dodged the bullet” on more US tariffs.
US equities, meanwhile, were downgraded two notches.
The TSX was weighed by information technology names like Shopify Inc. and Celestica Inc.
Lundin Gold Inc. was the index’s best performer by late afternoon Thursday, rising 2.8% to close at C$45.36.
The miner usurped Dollarama Inc., which led for most of the trading day.
The Quebec-based discount retailer rose as much as 9.3% after its adjusted earnings beat analyst estimates, sending the stock to an all-time high.
The stock later pared those gains and closed up 0.4% at C$159.95.
As for the Canadian dollar, it rose 1.1% to C$1.4087 per US dollar as of 4:52 p.m.
Toronto time, reaching its highest level since December.
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 3.8%, with nine of 11 sectors lower, led by information technology stocks.
As of market close, 158 of 218 stocks rose, while 51 fell.
Lundin Gold Inc. led the advances, rising 2.8%, while Aritzia Inc. decreased 20%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index fell 3.8% to 24,336
* Nine of 11 sectors fell
** Information technology declined, down 13%
** Communication services gained, up 2%
* S&P 500 Index fell 4.8% to 5,397
* Nasdaq 100 Index fell 5.4% to 18,521
* Crude oil fell 7% to $67/bbl
* Natgas rose 1.5% to $4.11/mmbtu
* Gold fell 1.2% to $3,102/oz
* Silver fell 8.1% to $32/oz
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The “America First” trade is unraveling in the sweeping turmoil in global markets, with stocks acutely exposed to the US economy sinking alongside the dollar.
As Wall Street’s rebellion against Donald Trump’s tariff war intensifies, traders are rushing into fixed-income havens.
About $2 trillion was erased from the S&P 500, with the gauge down about 5%.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms extended its plunge from a 2021 all-time high to 20% on speculation the president’s trade offensive will stunt the American economy.
The greenback slid 1.5%, reigniting the debate about its haven reputation during challenging times as the euro, yen and Swiss franc surged.
Oil joined a selloff in commodities.
All in, the much-vaunted America-first trade — buying up assets that win when the US outperforms the rest of the world — is reversing on concern that the steepest increase in American tariffs in a century will hammer economic growth.
That’s driving a fierce rally in global bonds, sending the yield on benchmark Treasuries briefly below the closely-watched 4% level.
Most other yields also tumbled as money markets priced in a 50% chance of the Federal Reserve delivering four quarter- point rate reductions this year.
Trump has embraced tariffs as a tool to assert US power, revive manufacturing at home and extract geopolitical concessions. Economists say the near-term result of his measures will likely be higher US prices and slower growth, or perhaps even a recession.
“If these tariffs stick, the economy is going to slow down,” said Mary Ann Bartels at Sanctuary Wealth.
“Whether it’s a recession or not, it’s clear that the economy is headed for a slowdown in the US and around the world. There’s no place to hide, but the fixed-income markets.”
As spiraling tariff worries hammer US stocks, legendary investor Bill Gross is urging prospective dip-buyers to stay on the sidelines.
“Investors should not try to ‘catch a falling knife’,” he said in an email.
“This is an epic economic and market event similar to 1971 and the end of the gold standard except with immediate negative consequences.”
Wall Street will face a key test Friday as the jobs report and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell should set the tone for markets worried about the outlook for the world’s largest economy.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk has seen a level of activity on Thursday that’s practically “unheard of” apart from stock-market rebalancing days.
It’s the busiest day for the desk since the emergence of Chinese AI startup Deep Seek rattled global markets in late January, John Flood, a Goldman partner and trading specialist, wrote in a note to clients.
“Our desk is a 9.5 out of 10 in terms of activity levels and I would not be surprised to see close to 20 billion shares trade across all US equity exchanges today,” where the average this year is 15 billion, Flood wrote.
Money managers have rolled back exposures to American equities to levels not seen since November 2023, according to a poll by the National Association of Active Investment Managers.
Hedge funds dumped global stocks at the fastest rate in 12 years in March, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. data.
Recession fears have been rising and that is visible across various asset classes.
Stocks and bond yields are back moving in concert and their correlation is the highest in two years.
But unlike in 2023 when they were both going up, this time they’re falling, a typical sign that economic growth expectations are being downgraded.
Nomura Securities International Inc. said it expects gross domestic product to expand 0.6% in 2025 after accounting for the new levies on imports, and a key measure of underlying inflation to rise to 4.7%.
Barclays Plc economists took a more pessimistic view toward GDP — projecting a 0.1% contraction — and a slightly more optimistic view of inflation, penciling in a 3.7% increase.
“I have no doubt that over the near term tariffs will be detrimental to growth,” said Irene Tunkel at BCA Research.
“We have gone through the first stage of this calamity and, as I said before, this is bad for financial markets.
The first stage is peak uncertainty. The next stage will be downgrades in earnings.”
The US risks being caught between slowing growth and rising prices as a result of the sweeping tariff plans unveiled Wednesday by the Trump administration, according to the president of Apollo Global Management Inc.
The chances of a recession in the world’s biggest economy have risen to 50% or higher, Jim Zelter said in a Bloomberg
Television interview Thursday.
The risk that tariffs accelerate inflation and constrain the Fed’s ability to stimulate growth by slashing rates has also risen materially, he said.
“We’re left to ponder how far the price action can extend from here. At this stage, the more relevant uncertainty is the degree to which the US equity market will sell off,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“In the event that stocks continue to slide, we anticipate that Treasury yields will do the same.”
Trump’s trade war is likely to reinforce the underperformance of US equities, as tariffs crimp earnings for Corporate America, according to global strategists at HSBC including Alastair Pinder.
“We believe this could accelerate the ongoing rotation out of US equities and into international,” they noted.
US tariffs were larger than expected, not priced in, and coming at a bad time, increasing the risk that US stocks will enter a bear market, UBS strategists led by Bhanu Baweja said.
“All of this is likely to mean an extended period of volatility for US equities,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. Nonetheless, we do believe the market will end the year higher.”
While uncertainty is currently high, Marcelli believes that, at the margin, incremental news flow could become more supportive as we approach the second half of the year.
“Now that the tariffs have been announced, negotiations to soften them can begin,” she said.
“Tariff revenue could be used to offset the cost of extending tax cuts. And we would expect the Fed to respond to weakening growth with interest rate cuts.”
Meantime, the dollar’s extended decline in the midst of a global selloff in risk assets has sparked a vigorous debate about whether it has retained its status as a haven during turbulent times, given the homegrown nature of the economic fears roiling macro markets.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index tumbled as much as 2.1% on Thursday, the measure’s sharpest intraday decline since its
launch in 2005.
Investors are bearish on the dollar in the coming month for the first time since September, options data show.
Hedge funds have increased their bearish bets on the dollar, mainly versus the yen and the euro, while also bracing for higher volatility into year-end, according to currency traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly.
Before the Bell: Stocks and Dollar Sink, UBS Sees 5% Inflation
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 4.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 3.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 6.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 6.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.5%
* The euro rose 1.6% to $1.1024
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3081
* The Japanese yen rose 2% to 146.24 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.3% to $81,931.13
* Ether fell 5.1% to $1,785.72
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.05%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 4.52%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 6.9% to $66.74 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,107.76 an ounce
-With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Phil Kuntz, Sujata Rao,
Margaryta Kirakosian and Anand Krishnamoorthy.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Embrace the faith that every challenge surmounted by your energy; every problem solved by your wisdom; every soul stirred by your passion;
and every barrier to justice brought down by your determination will ennoble your own life, inspire others, and explode outward the boundaries of
what is achievable on this earth. –Madeleine Albright, 1937-2022.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com
April 2, 2025, Newsletter
Tangents:
April 2, 1513: Juan Ponce de Leon reaches Florida.
April 2, 1792: the U.S. dollar is introduced via the Mint Act. Other proposed names for the dollar were the “Unit” and the “Eagle”.
April 2, 2011 Highly radioactive water leaked into the sea from a crack at Japan’s stricken nuclear power plant. Go to article.
Casanova, b. 1725.
Hans Christian Andersen, author, b. 1805.
Emile Zola, writer, b. 1840.
Emmylou Harris, singer, b. 1947.
Scientists discover major differences in how humans and AI ‘think’ — and the implications could be significant
Study finds that AI fundamentally lacks the human capability to make creative mental connections, raising warning signs for how we deploy AI tools. Read More.
3-year-old picks up ‘beautiful stone,’ discovers 3,800-year-old scarab amulet in Israel
A 3-year-old girl in Israel found an ancient Canaanite amulet shaped like a scarab while she was out walking with her family. Read More.
‘We didn’t expect to find such a beautiful, thriving ecosystem’: Hidden world of life discovered beneath Antarctic iceberg
The newfound ecosystem is filled with sea crabs, octopuses and gigantic sponges, suggesting it may have been thriving for centuries. Read More.
Lava bursts through Grindavík’s defense barriers as new volcanic eruption begins on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula
A volcanic fissure has opened up near the town of Grindavík on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula following a significant uptick in earthquake activity. Read More.
Watch eerie ‘UFOs’ and a solar ‘cyclone’ take shape in stunning new ESA video of the sun
An eerie new video from ESA’s Solar Orbiter shows a towering “cyclone” of plasma exhibiting behaviors never seen before on our sun. Read More.
‘Farewell, junk food!’
In an effort to fight child obesity, Mexico has banned the sale of salty and sweet treats in schools. The ban also requires schools to serve more nutritious fare and offer water as a drink option. Will other countries follow suit?
Big changes coming to the NFL
The NFL announced its latest updates to the game for the 2025 season, including kickoffs, overtime, how the ball is spotted and instant replay. But a decision on banning the so-called “tush push” play has been tabled for now.
Beatles biopic series casts its Fab 4
Director Sam Mendes is planning to make four feature-length biopics that will chronicle the story of The Beatles, as told through each of its members. Here’s who’s going to play John Lennon, Paul McCartney, Ringo Starr and George Harrison.
A POEM THAT I WROTE IN A HIGH FEVER
–by Yehuda Amichai
(Translated from Hebrew by Leon Wieseltier)
You who are lengthening your lives with the best doctors and the best medicines remember those who are shortening their lives with the wars that you in your long lives are not preventing.
You who are again screwing the younger generations and winking at each other the winking of your eyelids is like the chill of the swinging shutters in an empty house.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Wonosobo, Indonesia
Hot-air balloons in the air during the annual hot-air balloon festival, held since 1950 to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, the Islamic holiday marking the end of Ramadan, in Central Java
Photograph: Devi Rahman/AFP/Getty Images
Glenelg, UK
The Glenachulish ferry crosses between Glenelg and Kylerhea in Scotland. The ferry crossing between the Scottish mainland and the Isle of Skye has been in operation since 1934, earning it a ‘Red Wheel’ designation from the National Transport Trust in 2019, for sites of important transport heritage. The service runs between April and October and can carry up to 40,000 people each season
Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
Sydney, Australia
A surfer dismounts a wave off the Fairy Bower headland at Manly Beach. The large swell has been generated by a strong low-pressure system moving down the east coast of Australia
Photograph: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 2nd, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
42225.32 | +235.36 |
| +0.56% | ||
| S&P 500 | 5670.97 | +37.90 |
| +0.67% | ||
| NASDAQ | 17601.05 | +151.16 |
| +0.87% | ||
| TSX | 25307.19 | +273.91 |
| +1.09% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 34529.46 | -1196.41 |
| -3.35% | ||
| HANG SENG |
23202.53 | -4.31 |
| -0.02% | ||
| SENSEX | 76617.44 | +592.93 |
| +0.78% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 8608.48 | -26.32 |
| -0.30% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
2.915 | 2.928 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.184 | 3.186 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1307 | 4.1689 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.5004 | 4.5240 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7022 | 0.6993 |
| US $ |
1.4240 | 1.4300 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5513 | 0.6446 |
| US $ |
1.0893 | 0.9180 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3133.70 | 3115.10 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 71.71 | 71.20 |
Market Commentary:
There is no wealth but life. –John Ruskin, 1819-1900.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.1%, with nine of 11 sectors higher, led by information technology stocks.
As of market close, 137 of 218 stocks rose, while 77 fell.
Superior Plus Corp. led the advances, rising 8.1%, while BlackBerry Ltd. decreased 9.2%.
US
By Rita Nazareth, Denitsa Tsekova and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — A tariff offensive Donald Trump billed as key to America’s long-term prosperity went down badly in markets late Wednesday, setting off declines of 2% or more in equity benchmarks that had rallied for three days on hopes the program would be less draconian.
A $577 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) fell about almost 2.5% after the close of regular trading – wiping out an initial rally.
Trump said Wednesday he will apply a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US and slap additional duties on around 60 nations with the largest trade imbalances with the US.
China will face a 34% rate, while the European Union will have a 20% levy and Japan is seeing a 24% tariff.
The late-session swoon halted three days of gains in the S&P 500 as hopes were dashed the tariff program would be lighter touch.
Traders across asset classes now must brace for what promises to be a grueling stretch of trade negotiations, against an economic backdrop that has shown signs of softening as companies and consumers adjust to Trump’s offensive.
“That should slow trade and raise prices squeezing profit margins,” said Michael O’Rourke at Jones Trading Institutional Services.
“This will further slow a decelerating economy as it creates friction and distortion in global trade.
I think we need to expect retaliation which will likely lead to further escalation.”
To Steve Chiavarone at Federated Hermes, if Wednesday’s announcement marks the most draconian levels of tariffs, and the news flow from here is about how countries are negotiating reductions to these rates, that could be good for markets.
“This may create enough of a sell-off over the next day or so that it creates a buying opportunity,” he said.
“Worst case scenario today would’ve been a low rate with threats of escalation.
I’d rather, at this point, have higher rates with the potential to deescalate.”
In regular hours, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.7%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%.
Tesla Inc. jumped 5.3% on hopes Elon Musk will refocus on the carmaker as a news report suggested his time as a top adviser to Trump may end soon.
On an X post, Musk referred to the article as “fake news.”
Amazon.com Inc. was said to make a bid for TikTok in the US.
The US 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.21%.
The dollar fell 0.2%.
How US Tariffs Work — and Who Foots the Bill: QuickTake Options traders are betting that the S&P 500 will move roughly 1.1% in either direction on Thursday based on the price of at-the-money straddles, according to Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup Inc.’s head of US equity trading strategy.
“We believe uncertainty will linger for at least a few months and the focus will shift to the US economic outlook while markets remain hyper-sensitive to any news flow,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
Rather than trying to read the tea leaves and adjust investments based off of what’s going on in Washington, David Bahnsen at The Bahnsen Group says he’s focused on investing in companies that have superior cash flow generation during all seasons — and not just seasons when we’re worried about tariffs.
“Companies that are committed to growing their dividend tend to do so for a very long time,” according to Bahnsen.
Meantime, Corporate America last month announced the fewest stock buybacks, in dollar terms, since the Covid pandemic, an early sign of cash hoarding from worries about economic growth and the impact of a global trade war.
The value of announced buybacks in the US reached $39.1 billion in March, the lowest dollar value since October 2020 and the lowest for March since 2019, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates.
That’s a worrisome sign for investors since buybacks offer a crucial pillar of support for the US stock market, which is already down significantly from February’s all- time highs.
The mood among market participants is among the grimmest since the pandemic, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Ilan Benhamou, but he still sees a case for US equities to rally.
Benhamou, in the bank’s equity derivatives sales team, said it’s hard to not be more bearish in the face of a slowing economy, rising recession odds, mounting earnings revisions and falling equities price targets.
Still, he writes that “when everything looks grim that the fiercest bounces usually happen.”
Investors are eager for clarity on the scope of the levies to assess their impact on the already wobbly US economy.
Fears that a trade war will dampen consumer sentiment and require more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to support activity have pushed yields lower in the past weeks.
Options traders are betting that Treasuries will extend their rally, as seen in big wagers on lower yields and expectations of deeper-than-expected Fed cuts reflected in interest rate-linked derivatives.
A similarly bullish narrative is playing out in the Treasury cash market, with this week’s survey of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
client positions showing that the level of net longs is at its highest in a month.
And an increasingly dovish outlook on rates is evident in recent options activity linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which closely tracks the Fed’s policy rate.
A top-performing Invesco Ltd. money manager has beefed up her bearish bets against the dollar to the highest level in months on expectations that Trump’s tariffs will dent US growth.
“Our biggest concern is that this actually can be a really big, dollar negative story,” said Kristina Campmany, a senior portfolio manager at Invesco.
“From the get-go, we have been more concerned about the growth-negative impact of tariffs.”
In the derivatives market, hedge funds have sharply cut long dollar wagers from a recent peak in January but remain bullish on the US currency, according to positioning data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0850
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2982
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 150.02 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $86,806.6
* Ether fell 0.1% to $1,910.46
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.21%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $71.83 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,124.67 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Ignorance is not innocence but sin. –Robert Browning, 1812-1889.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com
April 1, 2025, Newsletter
Tangents:
***April 1, 1976: Apple Computer was founded by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak and Ronald Wayne. Go to article.****
April 1, 1921: French pilot Adrienne Bolland is the first female to fly over the Andes mountains.
April 1, 1970: Cigarette ads banned from TV.
April 1, 2001: the Netherlands becomes the first
AI models will lie to you to achieve their goals — and it doesn’t take much
Researchers discover that the most advanced AI models may lie to their users when under pressure.
March Madness: Women’s Final Four is set
Connecticut, South Carolina, UCLA and Texas will meet in Tampa for the semifinals of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament. Read More.
James Webb telescope takes emergency look at ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 ahead of close encounter in 2032
The James Webb Space Telescope has taken its first look at the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 before a perilous close approach in 2032. The telescope confirmed Earth is safe,
but the moon may still be in trouble. Read More.
World’s largest atom smasher makes 1st-of-its-kind ‘beauty’ particle discovery that could unlock new physics
Why matter dominates over antimatter in our universe has long been a major cosmic mystery to physicists. A new finding by the world’s largest particle collider has revealed a clue. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Sydney, Australia
A surfer rides a large wave at Bondi Beach as high winds hit the east coast of Australia
Photograph: David Gray/AFP/Getty Images
Paris, France
The restored ceiling paintings by the French painter Eugène Delacroix at the renovated library of the National Assembly. A hidden gem in the heart of the Palais Bourbon, the library is due to reopen in April after a year’s work to restore its nave and its 400 sq metres of painted ceilings, a masterpiece by Delacroix
Photograph: Stéphane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images
Manchester, England
Cranes and buildings are illuminated at night in Manchester city centre
Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA
Market Closes for April 1st, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
41989.96 | -11.80 |
| -0.03% | ||
| S&P 500 | 5633.07 | +21.22 |
| +0.38% | ||
| NASDAQ | 17449.89 | +150.60 |
| +0.87% | ||
| TSX | 25033.28 | +115.78 |
| +0.46% |
International MarketsMarkets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 35480.18 | -144.30 |
| -0.41% | ||
| HANG SENG |
23206.84 | +87.26 |
| +0.38% | ||
| SENSEX | 76024.51 | -1390.41 |
| -1.80% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 8634.80 | +51.99 |
| +0.61% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
2.928 | 2.968 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.186 | 3.225 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1689 | 4.2053 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.5240 | 4.5707 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.6993 | 0.6948 |
| US $ |
1.4300 | 1.4390 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.5432 | 0.6480 |
| US $ |
1.0791 | 0.9266 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3115.10 | 3071.60 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 71.20 | 71.48 |
Market Commentary:
The door to the American Millionaire’s Club is not locked. –J. Paul Getty, 1892-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5%, with eight of 11 sectors higher, led by information technology stocks.
As of market close, 154 of 218 stocks rose, while 61 fell.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. led the advances, rising 7.7%, while Endeavour Silver Corp. decreased 12%.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest tech companies lifted stocks as investors brushed off weak economic readings to focus on prospects for interest-rate cuts ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout.
In another volatile session, the S&P 500 wiped out a 1% slide that was triggered by weak manufacturing and jobs data.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps halted a four-day selloff.
Treasury yields dropped as traders slightly boosted their bets on Federal Reserve policy easing.
That’s despite a surge in a price measure.
Canada’s loonie and Mexico’s peso gained on news the leaders of both countries held a “productive” call on trade.
It’s a been a dizzying period for investors bracing for Trump’s tariffs.
As the deadline approaches, it’s not clear how far he’ll go in overturning the current rules-based system of global commerce. The uncertainty has shaken markets, prompted economists to cut their growth forecasts and forced central bankers to factor in the potential inflationary impact of import costs.
Trump’s sweeping tariffs will take immediate effect after they are announced Wednesday, his top spokeswoman said.
“Sentiment remains fragile before tariff day,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “With the exact scope of
these measures still uncertain, you would imagine that investors remain cautious. The trajectory of stocks remains highly uncertain in the near-term outlook.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.8%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average wavered.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.17%.
The dollar was little changed.
Trump is set Wednesday to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs and other levies on what he has labeled “Liberation Day” — a move expected to cover a broader swath of trade than the 1930 Smoot-Hawley duties that have long served as a cautionary tale about protectionism.
It’s part of Trump’s wider project to dismantle the global trading system the US helped build out of that era’s wreckage, on his belief that Americans got a raw deal.
“We doubt that ‘Liberation Day’ is going to mark the end around tariff uncertainty,” said HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner.
“We’d argue the potential is in fact higher for the 2 April deadline to introduce even more uncertainty – and hence prolonged broad-based weakness in leading indicators.”
Three of Wall Street’s most-reliable bulls have acknowledged that they were too optimistic in their estimates for the S&P 500 this year, with strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Societe Generale and Yardeni Research lowering theiryear-end targets for the benchmark.
Still, though, all three expect the index to finish the year higher than where it ended Monday.
In other words, while these market pros are warning of a slowdown — pointing to the risks to economic growth and consumer sentiment from Trump’s policies — they are not preparing for a wider meltdown yet.
In fact, every major strategist tracked by Bloomberg still anticipates a rise in the S&P 500 between now and the end of the year.
Market participants are positioning for another solid stretch of performance for Treasuries after signs of cooling US growth drove a first-quarter rally that left benchmark 10-year yields down about a half-percentage point from their January peak.
Trend-following hedge funds turned short US equities and long Treasuries last month and the rotation has room to run, according to analysis by Barclays Plc.
Rising potential for a US recession has Pacific Investment Management Co. touting the attractiveness of “stable sources of returns” in global bonds.
The bond manager is warning that President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade, cost-cutting and immigration policies stand to slow the world’s biggest economy by more than previously expected, hurting the labor market and supporting its view for investors to tilt their portfolios toward safer assets.
There’s “a strong case to diversify away from highly priced US equities into a broader mix of global, high quality bonds,” Pimco’s Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls wrote in a note.
Markets “are in the early stages of a multiyear period in which fixed income can outperform equities while offering a more favorable risk-adjusted profile.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0790
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2920
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.61 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $84,952.79
* Ether rose 5% to $1,910.31
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $71.20 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,118.90 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Sometimes, carrying on, just carrying on, is the superhuman achievement. -1913-1960.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com