Author: Carolann

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  St, Michael’s Day, Michaelmas.
September 29, 1978: Pope John Paul I was found deceased in his Vatican apartment a little more than one month after becoming head of the Roman Catholic Church. Go to article.

Miguel de Cervantes, writer, b. 1547.
Horatio Nelson, nave hero, b. 1758.
Enrico Fermi, physicist, b. 1901.

Scientists asked ChatGPT to solve a math problem from more than 2,000 years ago — how it answered it surprised them

We’ve wondered for centuries whether knowledge is latent and innate or learned and grasped through experience, and a new research project is asking the same question about AI. Read More.

30,000-year-old ‘personal toolkit’ found in the Czech Republic provides ‘very rare’ glimpse into the life of a Stone Age hunter-gatherer

Archaeologists have found an extraordinary cluster of Stone Age artifacts that may have been the personal gear of a single prehistoric individual. Read More.

‘If there is a space race, China’s already winning it’: NASA unlikely to bring Mars samples back to Earth before China does, experts say

What if the first Martian rock samples ever deliberately hauled back to Earth landed not in Houston, but in Beijing? Read More.

Scientists unveil world’s first quantum computer built with regular silicon chips

A London-based startup has created the world’s first full-stack quantum computer using a standard silicon CMOS chip fabrication process. Read More.

Mysterious cosmic explosion can’t be explained, scientists say

Researchers have detected a gamma-ray burst outside of the Milky Way that’s unlike any previously observed. There’s no satisfying explanation for the mysterious cosmic explosion, but it may be linked to elusive intermediate-mass black holes. Read More.

Europe wins Ryder Cup
Team USA’s incredible rally on the final day of the Ryder Cup was one for the ages, but Europe managed to fend off the charge.

6 scenic fall drives where you can get your foliage fix this year
From New England to the West, here are six scenic roadways that will leaf you breathless.

A short history of the world’s tallest buildings
For centuries, civilizations have built upward — and with modern technology, that drive has only intensified. Watch this video to see how some tall buildings are stretching the limits of engineering.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Kishoreganj, Bangladesh
The Baherbali Model high school in the haor wetlands. For nearly nine months of the year the school is surrounded by water, and boats become the only means of reaching the building
Photograph: Syed Mahabubul Kader/Zuma/Shutterstock

Eagles, Donalds and bubbly: Ryder Cup 2025
A more serene scene of Bethpage.
Photograph: James Marsh/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Queenstown, New Zealand
Wingfoiler Bryan McGlynn glides on the waters of Lake Wakatipu
Photograph: Sanka Vidanagama/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for September 29^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46316.07	+68.78
		+0.15%
S&P 500	6661.21	+17.51
		+0.26%
NASDAQ	22591.16	+107.09
		+0.48%
TSX	29971.91	+210.63
		+0.71%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45043.75	-311.24
		-0.69%
HANG SENG	26622.88	+498.68
		+1.89%
SENSEX	80364.94	-61.52
		-0.08%
FTSE 100*	9299.84	+15.01
		+0.16%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.183	3.226
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.631	3.669
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1387	4.1755
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7037	4.7487

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7186	0.7170
US $	1.3915	1.3947

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6321	0.6127
US $	1.1728	0.8526

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3769.85	3730.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.72	65.72

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1987, Charles Schwab launched its IPO, selling 8 million shares of stock to the public at an original price of $16.50 apiece. Just 20 days later, the crash of 1987 hit. The stock market plunged 23% in a single day, and Schwab’s stock was hammered down to $6.50 a share. The stock has returned over 52,000% since then.
Carry on any enterprise as if all future success depended on it. – Armand Jean du Plessis “Cardinal Richelieu”, 1585-1642.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.7%, or 210.63 to 29,971.91 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on Sept. 19.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 144 of 213 shares rose, while 67 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.2%.
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 34.9%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 12%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.9%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 34.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.15% compared with 7.03% in the previous session and the average of 8.33% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 123.2631| 4.3| 9/0
Materials | 56.6093| 1.1| 42/9
Financials | 30.8982| 0.3| 19/5
Industrials | 15.8259| 0.5| 20/9
Consumer Staples | 11.8468| 1.2| 10/0
Utilities | 4.1888| 0.4| 12/2
Health Care | 3.8303| 4.7| 3/1
Communication Services | 2.2065| 0.3| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 0.8430| 0.1| 3/6
Real Estate | 0.4153| 0.1| 16/2
Energy | -39.3200| -0.8| 6/32
Shopify | 102.8000| 6.2| 24.9| 35.6
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 15.5500| 1.9| -13.3| 106.5
Constellation | Software | 14.8400| 2.9| 64.4| -15.3
Suncor | -7.7930| -1.6| -46.5| 14.0
Canadian Natural | Resources | -7.8760| -1.2| -52.2| 1.5
Barrick Mining | -23.1100| -4.0| 31.1| 106.9
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange eked out another record close on Monday, its first in a week, as Rosenberg Research said, “equity markets are frothing, and central banks are committed enablers” before adding “there is no reliable method or quick formula for calling the turn in a FOMO-driven market”.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day up 210.63 points or 0.7% at 29,9971.91, with most sectors higher and Healthcare leading the way in rising 7.6%.
Cannabis stocks were higher after U.S. president Donald Trump endorsed the benefits of CBD for seniors.
Curaleaf (CURA.TO) jumped near 35%.
Capping gains, Energy was down near 1.5%.
According to Dow Jones Market Data and FactSet, going into today’s trading day the TSX was down near 0.6% from its record close of 29,958.98 on Sept. 22.
It was up 32.2% from its 2025 closing low of 22,506.90 on April 8, up 4.2% month to date; and up more than 20% year to date.
On broader markets, Research Economist Mehmet Beceren at Rosenberg Research published a note entitled ‘Will the Exuberance Engine Stall? Three Key Signals to Watch’ in which he said “equity markets are frothing, and central banks are committed enablers”. While writing with the United States in particular focus, he noted the debate over a growing stock bubble is gaining traction, but complacency is also taking root under the Fed’s easing cycle.
“FOMO (fear of missing out) dominates the market, and few can afford to sit it out,” Beceren said.
He noted there are many comparisons to past bubbles for timing a reversal, but there is no reliable method or quick formula for calling the turn in a FOMO-driven market.
“Each cycle is different, yet they rhyme, especially on how the narrative develops and how sources of leverage provide the primary fuel,” he added.
Beceren said: “A compelling technological breakthrough story, easy monetary policy, and opportunistic excessive leverage built up via some seemingly smart financial innovations are the three main ingredients of a “one big bullish buying” spree in the financial markets. That pattern repeats itself consistently in every boom-bust cycle.”
He added: “When we look at the historical data on market cycles, big reversals may seem to be predictable by a set of macro indicators — but that only works in retrospect.
By the time the underlying financial issues become visible in the macro data, it is usually too late.
Therefore, investors should pay close attention to micro developments in areas of the economy that are fueling the financial leverage engine which might sputter in the future.
Local cash flow problems and sequential contagion through the tightening credit channel are the key components.
One needs to follow micro developments in certain areas for the smoke signals.”
In this cycle, Beceren recommends focusing on three key indicators that might be the most relevant for the high-powered exuberance engine: crypto-driven leverage and crypto-treasury mania; AI-driven capex and bond supply; and the long yields.
Elsewhere, Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted stocks are “generally not as expensive” as the 25 times S&P 500 Index price to earnings (P/E) multiple would suggest.
“With full valuations,” it said, “we expect equities to be driven by robust-earnings growth rather than multiple expansion through year-end 2026.
We would view meaningful pullbacks as opportunities to add exposure to equities.”
Among individual stocks Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO, TD), Canada’s second-largest bank by market value, was up 0.7% and hit a fresh 52-week high as it released a long-awaited presentation to investors that reintroduced financial targets suspended last year and laid out plans to further cut costs and return capital to shareholders, as The Wall Street Journal reported.
“While our business is strong, we are committed to regaining leading performance,” President and Chief Executive Raymond Chun said in slides with his presentation.
TD had suspended financial targets including earnings guidance late last year as it reviewed its business options following a U.S. settlement stemming from lapses in its anti-money-laundering controls in the United States and Canada.
Ironically then, Canada’s consumer-finance regulator today hit TD with a separate C$5.5 million fine for errors that led to customers overpaying interest and principal costs.
For the 2026 fiscal year, The WSJ noted, TD said it is targeting annual growth in adjusted earnings per share of 6-8% and an adjusted return on equity of about 13%.
MT Newswires Canada noted it also targets a CET1 Ratio of 13%; Adjusted Expense Growth of 3-4%; and a PCL ratio of 40-50 basis points.
The bank said it expects to return some C$15 billion to shareholders in the next fiscal year, helped by money raised from the sale of its stake in Charles Schwab.
Of that sum $8 billion will be returned via share buybacks and $7 billion in common dividends.
This is after returning about $13.4 billion through buybacks and dividends in the current year that concludes at the end of October.
In the medium term, The WSJ noted, the bank said it was aiming for adjusted per-share earnings growth of 7-10% by fiscal 2029 and an adjusted return on equity of about 16%.
The WSJ also noted restructuring and other efforts are expected to deliver between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in annualized cost savings over the medium term, including about $1.1 billion the bank expects to save in the 2027 to 2028 years.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon Monday on strong safe haven buying ahead of a likely shutdown of the U.S. government at midnight on Tuesday, while the dollar weakened.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$46.40 to US$3,855.40 per ounce, topping the Sept. 23 record close of US$3,815.70.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed sharply lower on reports OPEC+ plans to increase production again in November, adding to concerns the market is becoming oversupplied as the cartel continues to look to boost its market share and price competitors out of the market.
WTI oil for November delivery closed down US$2.27 to settle at US$63.45 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down US$2.44 to US$67.69.
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — Stocks posted modest gains on Monday as concerns mounted about a looming US government shutdown possibly delaying the release of key labor-market data that could provide clues about how fast the Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates.
Treasury yields fell across the curve.
The S&P 500 ended the session 0.3% higher.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4% after climbing nearly 1% earlier.
The Bloomberg dollar index pared earlier losses after pending home sales for August jumped to the highest level in five months.
The US Treasury 10-year yield declined to 4.14% — shutdowns are typically associated with gains for bonds because of their potential to restrain the economy.
Gold, a safe-haven asset, hit a record.
Investors are worried that the threat of a US government shutdown could hinder some crucial data releases that they require to discern how the US economy is doing.
That includes Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which would offer details on how the labor market is holding up and help the Fed decide how many more times to cut rates this year.
“Given the importance of the job market to the Fed’s rate- cutting decisions, risk that the September unemployment report could be delayed could add to the market’s anxiety over the direction of policy,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab.
Uncertainty around trade policies also persists as Trump said he would levy new tariffs to boost the domestic film and furniture industries through a pair of sweeping — yet confusing — plans.
Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote that investors should be mindful that the inflationary impact of tariffs is not properly seen in numbers just yet.
“Further tax hikes — such as the 100% pharmaceuticals levy announced last week — are likely to add pricing pressures,” she said.
Separately, economists rejected Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran’s first major policy speech, in which he argued that the Trump administration’s policies have significantly lowered the level of interest rates needed to guard against inflation.
Miran still doubled down on his stance, saying the Fed risks damaging the economy by not moving rapidly to cut interest rates.
Apart from Friday’s jobs report, there’s also the JOLTs report releasing on Tuesday that will offer a picture on job openings while Wednesday’s data will shed light on company hiring.
Strategists said the recent negative revisions and downtrend in jobs numbers will raise the stakes for Friday’s release.
“We could be set for some notable volatility around these prints going forward as the breakeven payroll rate now seems to be around or under 50,000 a month,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG.
“We are not really conditioned to negative prints being within that margin of error, so reactions to such prints may be not rational.”
On Monday, investors also heard from a handful of Fed speakers. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that while he’s open to further rate cuts, policymakers should move carefully, since inflation is still running above target.
New York Fed President John Williams, on the other hand, said inflation risks have come down, but those for employment have moved up.
He didn’t indicate whether he might support another rate cut when policymakers next gather in late October.
Looming Shutdown
Top congressional leaders will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House a day before federal funding would expire if the two parties can’t agree on a short-term spending bill.
The bill would only fund the government until mid-November and must pass before Oct. 1.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“A record run in stocks has proven formidable against the scare of shutdowns, which explains why investors are hardly spooked by the latest threat of government closure.
In past instances of either an actual or threatened shutdown, the S&P 500 did get hit momentarily.
Yet any impact tends to be short- lived and has hardly stopped the index from eventually reaching all-time highs.”
—Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Global Head of Equities, UBS Global Wealth Management, urges investors to look past shutdown fears and pay attention to other market drivers, such as the Fed’s path, strong corporate earnings and robust AI capex.
“We continue to prefer quality fixed income, particularly those with medium-term maturities, which we believe offers a compelling combination of income and resilience in the event of slower growth,” Hoffmann-Burchardi said.
Valuations
Equities investors have recently been irked about valuations being too high, prompting them to ditch stocks for a few sessions last week.
But a growing number of Wall Street analysts are now advising that it may be time to forget what you thought you knew about price-to-earnings ratios, as the average multiple has steadily jumped higher over the course of decades.
In key company news, Electronic Arts Inc. has agreed to sell itself in the largest leveraged buyout on record to a group of investors that includes a firm managed by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. 
Some of the main moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1727
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3435
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 148.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $114,314.98
* Ether rose 3.5% to $4,193.83
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.8% to $63.20 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.8% to $3,828.55 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Eman Abouhassira, Isabelle Lee and Alexandra Semenova.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Our greatest foes, and whom we must chiefly combat, are within. -Miguel de Cervantes, 1547-1616.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
September 26, 1904: Earl Grey is named British Governor-General of Canada. Go to article.
September 26, 1960: First televised presidential debate.
September 26, 1983: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer, correctly identifies a missile warning as a false alarm, preventing a potential nuclear war.

Johnny Appleseed, farmer, b. 1774.
T.S. Eliot, poet, b. 1888.
George Gershwin, composer, b. 1898
John Smiley, writer, b. 1949.

He just became the first to ski down Everest without bottled oxygen
A 37-year-old professional skier just carved his name into history with a daring Everest descent. See the video here.

Photo gallery: Dramatic images capture the world’s storms
These “storm” images were shortlisted for the prestigious Prix Pictet, a global award recognizing excellence in photography and sustainability. 

A medical breakthrough
A gene therapy trial was found to slow the progression of Huntington’s disease, marking a significant step toward a potential first genetic treatment for the brain condition.

Katie Couric spoofs Sydney Sweeney
Katie Couric spoofed Sydney Sweeney’s controversial denim ad to raise awareness about colon cancer. 

FIFA unveils mascots for 2026 World Cup
The mascots set to star at FIFA’s 2026 World Cup are Clutch the Bald Eagle, Maple the Moose and Zayu the Jaguar. See them here.

5: That’s the number of years that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been sentenced to serve in prison. A Paris court on Thursday found him guilty of criminal conspiracy in an alleged scheme to finance his 2007 campaign with funds from Libya.

The 45th Ryder Cup gets underway
Launched in 1927, the Ryder Cup is a biennial tournament that pits the best golfers from the US and Europe against each other. Here’s what you need to know before they tee off today.

“I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but ever since Trump got back into office, he’s been waging a campaign of vengeance against his enemies who he believes have been trying to take him down,” Stephen Colbert said on Thursday.
“Now he’s focused all of his rage on the one foe who refused to take him up, and that is the U.N.’s escalator.” — STEPHEN COLBERT

1 million-year-old skull from China holds clues to the origins of Neanderthals, Denisovans and humans

Reconstruction of a 1 million-year-old skull shows that early human groups split and diversified quickly. Read More.

Rare wampum beads discovered at 17th-century colony in Newfoundland. 
Archaeologists in Newfoundland have discovered seven tiny beads known as wampum that are made from seashells. They may be the first ever found in the province. Read More.

‘We thought it was a problem with the instrument’: Scientists shocked by rare ‘Einstein cross’ with a surprise in the center

An image of a distant galaxy warped by a cosmic magnifying glass reveals a massive blob of dark matter hiding in plain sight. Read More.

Scientific breakthrough leads to ‘fluorescent biological qubit’ — it could mean turning your cells into quantum sensors

Fluorescent proteins can be turned into qubits within cells and could give us a deeper understanding of biology at the nanoscale level. Read More.

95 million-year-old ‘tiny, tiny skull’ from never-before-seen crocodile-like creature discovered in Montana

Researchers have described a whole new family of extinct crocodyliforms based on the fossilized remains of a single teenage croc named Elton discovered in the Blackleaf Formation. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kigali, Rwanda
Alberto Carlo Monti of the Czech Republic competes in the men’s under-23 individual time trial during the 98th UCI Cycling World Championships
Photograph: David Ramos/Getty

Santa Cruz County, Arizona, US
Trump is forging ahead with a new section of border wall in San Rafael Valley, which will threaten wildlife in a remote area where many rare animals – but few people – roam
Photograph: Cheney Orr/Reuters

atwalk strut … Magellanic penguins head for the sea, watched by an admiring crowd, after their release from a rehabilitation clinic in Punta del Este at the southern tip of Uruguay
Photograph: Matilde Campodonico/AP
Market Closes for September 26^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46247.29	+299.97
		+0.65%
S&P 500	6643.70	+38.98
		+0.59%
NASDAQ	22484.07	+99.37
		+0.44%
TSX	29761.28	+29.30
		+0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45354.99	-399.94
		-0.87%
HANG SENG	26128.20	-356.48
		-1.35%
SENSEX	80426.46	-733.22
		-0.90%
FTSE 100*	9284.83	+70.85
		+0.77%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.226	3.224
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.669	3.671
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1755	4.1698
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7487	4.7477

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7170	0.7173
US $	1.3947	1.3941

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6321	0.6127
US $	1.1731	0.8544

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3730.75	3761.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.72	65.71

Market Commentary:
On this day in 2001, Enron CEO Kenneth Lay led an online employee chat in which he urged the company’s workers to “talk up the stock.” He declared: “My personal belief is that Enron stock is an incredible bargain at current prices, and we will look back a couple of years from now and see the great opportunity that we currently have.” It soon filed the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 29,761.28 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.3%.
Today, 131 of 213 shares rose, while 79 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.2%
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 1
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 33.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.03% compared with 7.06% in the previous session and the average of 8.59% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 94.8249| 1.9| 48/3
Financials | 19.4602| 0.2| 13/11
Utilities | 6.2016| 0.6| 8/5
Communication Services | 2.9530| 0.5| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 2.6496| 0.3| 6/3
Real Estate | 1.2382| 0.2| 15/3
Health Care | 0.4809| 0.6| 3/1
Energy | -5.1030| -0.1| 21/18
Consumer Staples | -6.4792| -0.6| 3/7
Industrials | -14.3725| -0.4| 7/21
Information Technology | -72.5418| -2.5| 2/7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 17.0300| 2.2| -27.8| 102.6
Bank of Montreal | 7.6520| 0.9| -27.6| 30.4
Wheaton Precious Metals | 7.2890| 1.5| -4.7| 87.9
Couche-Tard | -4.0140| -1.0| -27.2| -8.9
Constellation Software | -32.1800| -6.0| 161.8| -17.7
Shopify | -38.8600| -2.3| 20.8| 27.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher for the first time in four sessions Friday, albeit modestly, as Canada’s gross domestic product rebounded in July though momentum is seen at risk, while, BMO raised its year-end target for the exchange to 31,500 and earning per share (EPS) target to $1,650 and National Bank left its asset mix unchanged this month with the index having “performed exceptionally well” since June.
Buoyed by higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 29.3 points to 29,761.28 with most sectors higher, even if none were up by even as much as 0.6%. Info Tech was down 2%.
National Bank noted the Canadian economy rebounded in July, growing 0.2% after edging down 0.1% in June, marking a first increase to GDP in four months.
This was above consensus expectations for the month for a 0.1% lift.
National noted the Statistics Canada advance estimates suggest GDP was essentially flat in August, as gains in wholesale and retail trade were offset by declines in mining, manufacturing, and transportation.
Taken together with the July print, National said, growth is on track for only a modest expansion in the third quarter following a significant pullback in Q2.
“While July’s rebound offers some relief, the economy remains vulnerable, with business investment and hiring intentions still subdued.
The latest easing by the Bank of Canada will not be sufficient to reinvigorate the Canadian economy in the short term as the lack of visibility for businesses should continue to be a constraint on the economy.
We will have to wait until early November to assess the extent to which the federal government will be able to counterbalance the current headwinds,” National noted.
Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, noted in his latest ‘Canadian Strategy Snapshot’ the stock market recovery that “no one believed, was widely panned and even more loudly doubted” when BMO first published its view that Canada was entering a prolonged period of outperformance relative to the United States in mid-2024, has reached heights that “even we thought were lofty”.
Yes, Belski said, the TSX has eclipsed BMO’s base case of 28,500 in part to surprising economic strength and sustained gold momentum.
“However, MACRO does not lead — FUNDAMENTALS do,” he added.
Belski said that is why BMO has been prioritizing the “”improving and consistent fundamental conditions” of Canadian stocks with respect to earnings growth and revisions, operating performance, cash, and yes, themes within the bank’s Canadian strategy publications and actual equity portfolios that it oversees.
“After all,” he added, “the stock market is a market (for) stocks – and STOCKS are NOT the ECONOMY.”
“This fact has never been more prevalent in our view than the past two years in Canada.
To that end, we are raising our 2025 year end price target for the TSX to 31,500 from 28,500, which implies another 6% return in the final three months of the year.
Furthermore, we are raising our 2025 EPS target to 1,650 from 1,600 thanks to the broadening positive revision cycle that our models have shown over the last six months,” Belski said.
Belski added: “This now positions the TSX to exhibit low double digit earnings growth by the end of 2025, implying a higher earnings multiple that is likely to remain above the long term historical average.
After all, you pay for what is working — and Canadian equities are working.”
BMO still believes Canadian outperformance versus U.S. exchanges will moderate.
However, Belski said, Canada is well positioned to at least keep pace with the U.S. into year end and ultimately outperform on a year over year basis by one of the widest margins on record.
With its revised forecasts, BMO now expects the TSX to outperform the S&P 500 in local currency by over 8% on an annual basis this year, marking one of the strongest outperformances since 1990.
In fact, only in 1993, 1999, and 2005 were years when the TSX was up double digits and outperformed the S&P 500 by over 8%.
Meanwhile, National Bank in its Monthly Equity Monitor for September and October 2025 asked: Who would have thought that a so-called trade war would fuel a worldwide equity surge with no clear losers? “We certainly didn’t,” it said, but added it’s worth stressing that this isn’t a textbook trade war.
“So far,” National added, “there’s been little to no retaliation against Washington, meaning no escalation of inflation via second-round effects.”
National Bank noted the U.S. equity risk premium is now deeper in negative territory than at any point in a generation.
It said: “Resilient inflation and limited rate relief could pose risks to U.S. equities in the months ahead, particularly with valuations already stretched well above historical norms.
Strong corporate profits have so far helped justify these multiples, but margin pressures could build if cost inflation persists or if tariff retaliation materializes.”
The S&P/TSX, National Bank noted, broke new ground in September, climbing above 30,000 to a fresh record high, while year to date gains now exceed 20% after just three quarters, the strongest showing at this point in the year since 2009.
More specifically, National noted, this record performance has been powered by a 97% surge in gold stocks so far this year.
Thanks to this outsized gain, gold now accounts for just over 11% of the S&P/TSX market capitalization, the highest share since its 11.5% peak in 2012 and well above the historical average of 4.7% since the mid-1970s.
National Bank is leaving its asset mix unchanged this month after its last adjustment in June, when the bank modestly reduced its equity underweight by trimming fixed income and moving Canadian equities to overweight.
It said the S&P/TSX has performed exceptionally well since then, and valuations now sit above their historical norm.
“But there’s room for more if the November 4 budget delivers on Ottawa’s pro-business promises and if trade talks with Washington advance,” the bank added.
Of commodities, gold traded higher as a key U.S. inflation measure rose last month, but matched expectations, clearing the way for another interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.
Gold for December delivery was seen up $38.00 to US$3,809.10 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate rose to the highest in nearly two months as traders focus on geopolitical risk with Ukraine expanding its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed up $0.74 to settle at $65.72 per barrel, the highest since Aug.4, while November Brent crude was up $0.52 to $69.94.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying lifted stocks in the final stretch of the week after a key inflation gauge matched expectation, giving the Federal Reserve some breathing room to address labor-market cooling.
Following a three-day slide, the S&P 500 rebounded.
The response to the data was fairly muted in the bond market, and swap traders continued to price in around 40 basis points of Fed cuts before the end of 2025.
The dollar fell.
A report Friday showed the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July.
On an annual basis, the core measure remained at 2.9% – above the Fed’s target.
“Despite another month of elevated inflation, today’s PCE report was in-line across the board,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“That gives investors some relief that the current status quo will remain intact, and that the Fed will remain on track to cut rates two more times this year.”
Kenwell also says that the Fed’s 2% inflation goal seems to be a “low priority” right now, with policymakers trying to restore balance between jobs and inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to a cooling labor market to explain why officials lowered rates in September, while remaining vigilant on inflation.
“Inflation may not be reversing, but it’s not reaccelerating,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Barring a major upside surprise from next week’s jobs report, the Fed should remain on course to deliver another rate cut in late October.”
Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin told Bloomberg Television that while unemployment and inflation have both moved away from the goals, he sees only limited risk of further deterioration.
Despite a slide in consumer sentiment, Friday’s data also showed US personal spending rose by more than forecast — illustrating resilience.
“Today’s data reinforces yesterday’s ‘gee-the-economy-is- much-stronger-than-anyone-thought’ narrative, but at the same time, there’s less to worry about on the inflation front,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
Actions speak louder than words and consumers continue to spend, which is why corporate profits continue to exceed expectations, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“The bull market is going to continue as long as consumers remain employed and continue to spend, and corporations are able to adjust and adapt to the conditions on the ground,” he noted.
“Following a three-day pullback in the broader market, this is good enough to pull buyers off the sidelines,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“Today’s PCE calms some of those worries. No news is good news.”
While inflation likely gets the headline in today’s data, the income and spending numbers may be more important, according to Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“This likely sustains strong consumption and possibly leads to better than expected third-quarter growth,” he noted.
At Janus Henderson Investors, Greg Wilensky says continued strength in overall economic activity and a Fed that remains likely to lower rates will likely provide support for risk assets.
That’s despite valuations that, on the surface, appear expensive, he said.
The S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio recently touched a high of 22.9, a level that this century was exceeded in just two prior instances: the dot-com bust and the pandemic rally in the summer of 2020 when the Fed reduced rates to near zero.
While cutting rates in non-recessionary environments tends to be good for US stocks, markets could use a bit of a breather as we enter the fourth quarter and as certain pockets of the market are seeing some euphoria, noted Kenwell at eToro.
“Should a pullback materialize in October, it could be the dip that refreshes the rally and gives investors a more attractive entry point into the market,” he said.
After one of the strongest stretches for equities since April, the S&P 500 is showing natural signs of fatigue, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide. Yet positioning and sentiment remain far from extreme, suggesting investors are more cautious than complacent.
“With fiscal stimulus, a potential dovish Fed shift, and a softer dollar all looming as catalysts, any near-term test of technical support should be seen less as a reversal and more as setting the stage for the next leg of the bull run,” he said.
Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching news regarding the funding stalemate in Congress.
President Donald Trump on Friday shrugged off the threat of the first US government shutdown in nearly seven years and moved to cast the blame for any disruption on Democrats.
In the event of a federal government shutdown, the September jobs report — due next Friday — will be delayed if the Department of Labor adheres to an operational contingency plan spelled out earlier this year.
“Government shutdowns tend to inject volatility but typically don’t have a lasting market impact,” wrote Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services.
The benchmark S&P 500 has barely moved on average during the last 20 shutdowns, according to Truist.
“The looming government shutdown may spark short-term volatility, although historically government shutdowns are not significant market-moving events as they tend to be averted last minute or resolved quickly,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
As we wrap up September, stocks are defying their historical weakness, Bellin noted, “although that doesn’t mean that October will be smooth sailing, as October is a month with a volatile reputation.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has developed a ChatGPT-like iPhone app to help test and prepare for a long-anticipated overhaul of Siri coming next year, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Electronic Arts Inc. is in talks to be taken private by a consortium led by Silver Lake Management and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Intel Corp. and GlobalFoundries Inc. rallied after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is weighing a new plan to reduce US reliance on chips made overseas.
* The $14 billion valuation that the Trump administration has estimated for TikTok’s US business falls well below projections, surprising investors who say a deal at that price would be a bargain for potential buyers including Larry Ellison’s Oracle Corp. and partner Silver Lake Management LLC.
* Meta Platforms Inc. will soon offer paid versions of Facebook and Instagram in the UK that will remove advertising from both platforms.
* Drugmakers rose as President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on branded and patented drug imports was greeted with a shrug by many investors — who are betting his exemptions for companies with US manufacturing will soften any blow.
* Shares of truck maker Paccar Inc. climbed as Trump announced new industry-specific tariffs that include a 25% levy on heavy trucks. Analysts say the company will benefit because it has significant US production.
* Trump on Friday intensified his campaign against Tylenol to include young kids, posting on his Truth Social that parents shouldn’t give children the drug “for virtually any reason.”
* Boeing Co. and the union representing striking defense workers have agreed to resume negotiations with a federal mediator in a bid to end a nearly eight-week work stoppage.
** Boeing will regain more powers from regulators to conduct final safety checks and issue airworthiness certificates for some 737 Max and 787 jets prior to delivery, easing restrictions put in place after a series of manufacturing lapses.
* Uber Technologies Inc. sees its grocery and retail deliveries growing faster than expected, underscoring the company’s effort to catch up with rival services from Instacart, DoorDash Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.
* PG&E Corp., which filed for bankruptcy in 2019 following devastating blazes, was upgraded to investment grade by Fitch Ratings after the California legislature boosted the size of a fire insurance fund.
* TeraWulf Inc. is expected to raise approximately $3 billion to support the build-out of its data centers via a structure supported by Google Inc., according to Patrick Fleury, the crypto miner’s finance chief.
* Switzerland’s government formally proposed giving UBS Group AG seven years to fully comply with higher capital requirements, confirming previous guidance.
* BMW AG is recalling at least 331,000 vehicles globally due to a defect in its starter motor, another such setback for the German carmaker that’s been hit by costly product flaws
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The latest data batch confirms that US consumers are taking labor-market headwinds in stride for now. That clears the path for stocks to push higher into year-end.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1706
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3408
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.50 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $109,200.89
* Ether rose 3.5% to $4,023.12
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.75%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.64%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $65.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,766.29 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The role of a leader is to define reality and give hope. -Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

September 25, 1493: Christopher Columbus set sail from Cadiz, Spain, with a flotilla of 17 ships on his second voyage to the Western Hemisphere.
September 25, 1676: Greenwich Mean Time established.
September 25, 1905: Albert Einstein publishes his paper on special relativity, a breakthrough that redefined physics and altered humanity’s understanding of space and time.

William Faulkner, novelist, b. 1897.
Dmitri  Shostakovich, composer, b. 1906.
Will Smiht, actor, b. 1968.
Catherine Zeta-Jones, actress, b. 1969.

The James Webb telescope may have discovered a brand new class of cosmic object: the black hole star

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5,000-year-old stone tomb discovered in Spain is 43 feet long — and it holds many prehistoric burials

A large, 5,000-year-old dolmen has been discovered by archaeologists in southern Spain. Read More.

Scientists discover 85 ‘active’ lakes buried beneath Antarctica’s ice

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Abandoning daylight saving time could prevent over 300,000 stroke cases a year in the US, study claims

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In ‘Secrets of the Brain,’ Jim Al-Khalili explores 600 million years of brain evolution to understand what makes us human

In his new BBC show, Jim Al-Khalili journeys through hundreds of millions of years of brain evolution. Live Science spoke to him about what he learned along the way and how this knowledge sheds new light on human cognition. Read More.

Kamala Harris kicks off book tour in New York City
Former Vice President Kamala Harris began her book tour on Wednesday, with both supporters and protesters in attendance.

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Babylon was once an ancient wonder. Today, it’s a very different story.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hitomi Tsuchiya, Japan – Fine art finalist
A turtle swims through an underwater aurora. “This image was taken near Mount Iwo, where the underwater aurora can be seen,” says Tsuchiya. “The volcano spews out iron-rich substances from above ground and from the ocean floor, creating these colours”

Alex Dawson, Mexico – Ocean adventure, third place
Divers explore the unique Yab Yum cave. Close to 100 metres in diameter and more than 70 metres deep, it is considered the largest water-filled sinkhole that has ever been documented

Wreath flowers (Lechenaultia macrantha)
The 2025 Bowness photography prize – in pictures
These are quite rare wildflowers that bloom in a circular pattern on the ground. This plant was shot in Pindar
Market Closes for September 25^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45947.32	-173.96
		-0.38%
S&P 500	6604.72	-33.25
		-0.50%
NASDAQ	22384.70	-113.16
		-0.50%
TSX	29731.98	-24.97
		-0.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45754.93	+124.62
		+0.27%
HANG SENG	26484.68	-33.97
		-0.13%
SENSEX	81159.68	-555.95
		-0.68%
FTSE 100*	9213.98	-36.45
		-0.39%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.224	3.204
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.671	3.674
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1698	4.1466
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7477	4.7507

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7173	0.7196
US $	1.3941	1.3896

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6263	0.6148
US $	1.1667	0.8571

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3761.60	3783.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.71	65.49

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1955, President Dwight D. Eisenhower suffered a heart attack and the stock market plunged by 6.6%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 29,731.98 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.3%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest drop, falling 15.5%.
Today, 98 of 213 shares fell, while 112 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.1%
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 1
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 33.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.06% compared with 7.16% in the previous session and the average of 8.73% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | -95.1080| -3.1| 2/7
Financials | -9.7448| -0.1| 8/15
Consumer Staples | -6.1018| -0.6| 2/8
Real Estate | -2.8606| -0.6| 4/14
Health Care | -0.2600| -0.3| 2/2
Communication Services | 1.1091| 0.2| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 1.9346| 0.2| 4/5
Utilities | 4.8539| 0.5| 10/4
Industrials | 6.9426| 0.2| 16/13
Energy | 20.6136| 0.4| 27/12
Materials | 53.6676| 1.1| 33/17
Shopify | -58.6200| -3.3| -12.3| 30.7
Constellation Software | -34.2400| -6.0| 176.1| -12.5
Brookfield Corp | -14.6600| -1.5| -2.4| 15.5
Cameco | 12.1600| 3.5| 3.8| 61.6
Barrick Mining | 13.2200| 2.4| 7.2| 114.5
TD Bank | 16.4100| 1.3| -9.7| 43.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a third day on Thursday moving off its recent trend of regular record highs, on profit taking and as the attention of market watchers appears to be drifting back to economic concerns, with National Bank not expecting hiring to meaningfully pick up this year, which will only add to labor market slack.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 24.97 points to 29,731.98, even as most sectors were higher.
It added to a total of more than 200 points lost over the prior two sessions.
The index has dropped from Monday’s record close of 29,958.98, and from an intraday high above the 30,000-level touched on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Among sectors, the Battery Metals Index was up 3.6% and Base Metals up near 1%.
In contrast, Info Tech was down 2.5% and Health Care down 1.3%.
Taylor Schleich, National Bank’s Director, Economics and Strategy, said the most insightful component of the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) released earlier today is not overall employment, given how backward looking it is.
Instead, National Bank focuses on job vacancies as they offer a read on labor demand and what hiring may look like in the future.
“Today’s data are not inspiring,” he said, noting vacant positions fell in July and are now down 12% from the end of 2024.
The vacancy rate, or the ratio of open jobs to total labor supply, fell to 2.6% versus 3.1% a year ago and 5.6% back in 2022.
“Note that this recent deterioration is more pronounced than in the U.S. where, despite the Fed’s worries, labour demand is near pre-COVID levels,” Schleich added.
Looked at another way, Schleich noted there were 3.3 unemployed Canadians fighting for each vacant position in July.
Outside of COVID, he said, “things haven’t looked this dire since early 2017”, when the national jobless rate was also around 7%.
According to Schleich, the key difference is that back then, the labor market was improving.
Today, it’s moving in the opposite direction.
Also, monetary policy looked a lot different then too.
In 2016, the BoC was fostering growth with a “very” accommodative policy rate (0.5%) while today, policy is more or less neutral.
“Suffice it to say,” Schleich said, “we’re not expecting hiring to meaningfully pick up this year which will only add to labour market slack.
And while the BoC had previously contended that labour market weakness is concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, that’s not really backed up by these data.
Goods producing (i.e, tariff-exposed) industries have seen vacancies dry up more (-18% Y/Y) but a 14% Y/Y drop in services sector openings doesn’t warrant the ‘resilient’ label that some had earlier applied to Canada.”
Schleich added: “When it comes to monetary policy, markets are pricing further easing which is warranted.
However, the next cut isn’t fully priced until January which is too late in our view.
We see higher odds of an October cut, and the likelihood of even more rate relief being needed is growing.”
Elsewhere, Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Market, noted Quebec’s economy contracted 2.4% annualized in Q2, which is weaker than the 1.6% decline seen nationally.
He said this is no major surprise given that Quebec was always going to get hit relatively hard by U.S. tariffs, notably through exposure to steel and aluminum.
Kavcic added: “While we had already built a very tough Q2 into our 2025 outlook, there is some further downside risk to our call of just 0.7% growth in 2025.
That would leave Quebec at the weak end of the provincial growth table this year.”
Of commodities, gold had edged higher late midafternoon on Thursday, rising off a day-prior drop even as the dollar and treasury yields rose after U.S. initial jobless claims slowed last week and second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised higher. Gold for December delivery was last seen up $9.30 to US$3,777.40 per ounce, after falling off a record US$3,815.70 set on Tuesday.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a minor drop as traders took profits after prices rose to a three-week high amid Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil industry and an unexpected drop in the U.S. inventories last week.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.01 to $64.99 per barrel, edging down from the highest since Sept. 2, while November Brent crude was up $0.06 to $69.37.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell as valuation worries overshadowed data showing the economy is holding up.
The figures didn’t have much of an impact on Federal Reserve bets, but short-dated yields climbed.
Bitcoin sank.
Following a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 dropped for a third straight session, the longest slide in a month.
That’s despite data showing US gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years.
“We agree that the economy is strong and growing,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, “but a lot of that good news is already priced in.
Where we have our largest concern is with valuations.”
An over $15 trillion surge in equities from this year’s lows came on speculation that the economy is not sinking and the market will be bolstered by improving corporate profits and the artificial-intelligence boom.
As a result, the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to- earnings ratio recently touched a high of 22.9, a level that this century was exceeded in just two prior instances: the dot- com bust and the pandemic rally in the summer of 2020 when the Fed reduced rates to near zero.
While the central bank’s focus has tilted toward the jobs market, traders will be closely watching Friday’s inflation report.
“Active investors will want to see an in-line or lower inflation result, keeping the Fed on pace for two more rate cuts in 2025,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“As much as investors want lower rates, a solid economy is more important.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, with most major groups down.
Two- year yields climbed six basis points to 3.66%.
The dollar rose.
The crypto slump intensified ahead of a $22 billion options expiry.
Inflation-adjusted GDP, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a revised 3.8% annualized pace.
That was stronger than the previously reported 3.3% advance and followed an outright contraction in the first quarter.
To Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management, Thursday’s GDP strength likely doesn’t change the Fed’s expected path of rate cuts, “since the data is backward looking.”
In fact, money markets only slightly reduced bets on rate cuts after the data, projecting about 40 basis points of Fed reductions before the year is over.
The decline in initial jobless claims to the lowest since July points to a labor market that — while cooling — has seen relatively limited layoffs.
Most companies are choosing to hold onto workers even as lingering economic uncertainty keeps a lid on hiring.
“There may be cracks in the labor market, but if today’s data is any indication, they haven’t widened recently,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Along with an upward revision to GDP, we’re seeing an economy that remains resilient despite an array of challenges.”
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the US central bank risks damage to the economy by not moving rapidly to lower interest rates.
“I don’t think the economy is about to crater,” Miran said Thursday on Bloomberg Surveillance.
But given the risks, “I would rather act proactively and lower rates as a result ahead of time, rather than wait for some giant catastrophe to occur,” he said.
The Fed led by Chair Jerome Powell lowered rates last week by a quarter percentage point, the first cut of 2025.
Miran dissented against the decision, favoring a half-point cut.
Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s top bank cop, said inflation is close enough to the central bank’s target to justify more rate cuts because the job market is weakening.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee expressed continued concern about tariff-driven inflation and pushed back against any call for “front-loading” multiple rate cuts.
His Kansas City counterpart Jeff Schmid signaled the central bank may not need to cut again soon.
Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the US central bank should abandon the federal funds rate as its benchmark in implementing monetary policy, and consider an overnight rate tied to the more robust market for loans collateralized by US Treasuries.
Citadel’s Ken Griffin told CNBC he expects the Fed to cut its benchmark rate once more in 2025 as the central bank turns its focus to the labor market.
The Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation likely grew at a slower pace last month, offering policymakers some breathing room to address jobs cooling.
A report on Friday is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July.
On an annual basis, the so-called core measure is seen holding at a still- elevated 2.9%.
“If we were to see an uptick, that could worry investors that the Fed’s rate cut expectations are too ambitious, and that they may need to establish more of a wait-and-see approach on rates,” said Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
The market is on tenterhooks waiting for the Fed’s next rate move, a crucial earnings season looms large, and the threat of a US government shutdown is growing more severe.
Add the specter of rising volatility to a list of worries investors need to contend with.
Since 1928, historical price swings in the S&P 500 in October have been about 20% greater than in other months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s derivatives team says.
“Are stocks ready for a breather, or dare we say, some selling pressure? The short answer is yes,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Investors should expect that some form of a breather or downturn in the market will come at some point.”
Meantime, Bespoke Investment Group noted that while the last few days have started to show some cracks in the market, sentiment was little changed based on the weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors.
Bullish sentiment remained unchanged at 41.7% while bearish sentiment dropped to 39.2% and neutral sentiment increased to 19.1%, the AAII tally showed.
The impending earnings season may get things moving.
Corporate chief financial officers’ optimism about the economy and their own company’s financial health rose in the third quarter, according to the latest CFO Survey.
‘Solid Footing’
Meantime, Barclays strategists said there’s limited risk to S&P 500 earnings related to disappointments over artificial- intelligence spending, with the AI investment theme “on solid footing.”
To Saglimbene at Ameriprise, fundamental dynamics heading into the fourth quarter, including the rate environment, appear stable and supportive of current stock levels.
He also believes profit conditions across S&P 500 companies remain favorable and durable.
“But expectations are high, and valuations largely reflect much of the ‘good news’ narrative today.
Thus, investors should be prepared for a few potential bumps in the road at some point,” Saglimbene said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp., Silver Lake Management LLC, and the Abu Dhabi- based investment company MGX are in talks to invest in a US version of TikTok and receive board seats in the new venture, according to people familiar with the discussions.
* Amazon.com Inc. agreed to pay $2.5 billion in penalties and refunds and change its process for how to cancel its Prime subscription to settle a lawsuit by the US Federal Trade Commission.
* Microsoft Corp. disabled some use of its software by the Israeli military after an investigation spurred by news reports that the company’s products were involved in the surveillance of civilians.
* Apple Inc. has asked European Union antitrust watchdogs to scrap regulations intended to protect digital consumers, arguing they expose users to privacy risks and threaten to undermine innovation.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is set to face a charge sheet from the European Union for failing to adequately police illegal content, risking fines for violating the bloc’s content moderation rulebook.
* Alphabet Inc. trails behind a few other megacap technology companies in size, but the Google parent may be destined to overtake them given its strong position in artificial intelligence and other key sectors, according to MoffettNathanson.
* Intel Corp. was upgraded to neutral from sell at Seaport Global, which sees near-term upside for the chipmaker if it receives more direct investments.
* Starbucks Corp. said it will close stores and eliminate 900 jobs in a $1 billion restructuring effort as the company amps up a turnaround plan under new Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol.
* Eli Lilly & Co. halted a study of an experimental drug designed to prevent obesity patients from losing too much muscle, citing strategic business reasons it didn’t disclose.
* CarMax Inc.’s weaker-than-expected results showed deepening strain in the used-car market.
* CoreWeave Inc. has expanded its agreements to supply data center capacity to OpenAI by as much as $6.5 billion to $22.4 billion, the latest deal to underscore the immense demand for AI computing power.
* Two casino bids — MGM Resorts International’s proposal for a $2.3 billion expansion of its Empire City Casino in Yonkers, New York, and Genting Group’s pitch for a $5.5 billion addition to its Queens location — will advance to a state board after clearing a key vote by local advisory committees.
* Live Nation Entertainment Inc.’s Ticketmaster agreed to make certain changes to its ticketing business following the UK’s antitrust watchdog concerns that it risked misleading customers in last year’s sale of Oasis tickets.
* The Qatar Investment Authority is partnering with Blue Owl Capital Inc. to finance and invest in data centers, marking the sovereign wealth fund’s latest bet on the booming artificial intelligence sector.
* BP Plc said that oil demand is going to keep growing for the rest of this decade, rowing back on its prior projection that the high point could come as soon as this year.
* SAP SE has been hit by a European Union antitrust probe into whether the German software giant distorted competition for on- premise maintenance and support services related to a management program it sells.
* Accenture Plc said it expects US federal spending cuts on consultants to slow its growth next year after it beat expectations for revenue in the fourth quarter.
* Robert Bosch GmbH will cut about 13,000 additional jobs at its auto-parts business as rising competition and a sluggish European car market push the manufacturer into deeper restructuring.
* Brunello Cucinelli SpA tumbled after short seller Morpheus Research alleged the luxury Italian cashmere brand is misleading investors about its Russian business and engaging in “aggressive discounting.”
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The two-week decline in jobless claims stands to ease jitters about the labor market at a time when the Fed has already jumped to the rescue with an interest-rate cut. That further reinforces the idea that the central bank is easing into a soft landing, which historically benefits stocks and the dollar, but stands to hurt bonds.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1661
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3337
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 149.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.7% to $109,392.29
* Ether fell 6.1% to $3,913.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.77%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.76%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.66%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.75%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $65.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,746.59 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Let yourself be silently drawn by the stronger pull of what you truly love. –Rumi, 1207-1273.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 24, 1734: Schwenkfelder Thanksgiving, Pennsylvania-Dutch.
September 24, 1852: Henri Giffard pilots the first powered and steerable airship, filled with hydrogen and driven by a 3-horspower steam engine, flying 27 kilometers from Paris to Trappes.
September 24, 1869: Financiers Jay Gould and James Fisk tried to corner the gold market, sending Wall Street into a panic and leaving thousands of investors in financial ruin. Go to article.

F. Scott Fitzgerald, writer, b. 1896.
Jim Henson, muppet creator, b. 1936.
Phil Hartman, comic actor, b. 1948.
Nia Vardalos, actress, b. 1962.

We could nuke ‘city killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 before it hits the moon — if we act fast, new study warns

The potential ‘city killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 has a small chance of hitting the moon in 2032. In a new paper, scientists probe the logistics of destroying it — possibly with nuclear weapons — before it comes too close. Read More.

7-year-old Maya child had green jade ‘tooth gem,’ new study finds

Archaeologists already knew that adult Maya had tooth inlays, but this is some of the first evidence that children also had tooth bling. Read More.

Gigantic dinosaur with ‘claws like hedge trimmers’ found with croc leg still in its jaws in Argentina

Speedy mega raptor Joaquinraptor casali had big arms and claws like hedge trimmers that would have made T. rex’s forelimbs look puny. Read More.

Rare blue-and-green hybrid jay spotted in Texas is offspring of birds whose lineages split 7 million years ago

The hybrid bird is the product of two species whose habitat ranges began to overlap a few decades ago, potentially due to climate change, researchers said. Read More.

Fired before the fireworks
The group planning the United States’ 250th birthday celebrations has fired its White House-appointed executive director.

MLB player David Fry hit in the face with a fastball
Cleveland Guardians hitter David Fry was taken to the hospital on Tuesday after being struck in the face by a 99 mph pitch.

Italian city imposes a tourist tax on dogs
Dog owners visiting the Italian city of Bolzano will be hounded for taxes to offset the cost of street cleaning and to fund new parks.

Don’t forget to wash your fruits and vegetables
A new study says that eating more pesticide-laced produce exposes Americans to dozens of potential toxins.

China’s internet censors have a new target: pessimists
China’s powerful internet censors have long been known for erasing political dissent. Now, they’re being unleashed on a new scourge — negativity.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
With a powerful sweep of its pectoral fins, a stingray vanishes into the blue, leaving behind a swirling cloud of sand. “This dramatic burst isn’t just beautiful – it’s a survival tactic,” says Coll
Ben Thouard, Portugal – Ocean adventure, winner
A rough Nazaré day. “The wind came from the north which made the surf tricky,” says Thouard. “Not many surfers went out and it was hard to shoot anything because of the big sets but eventually, this moment occurred”
Bradford, England
A work by Zadie Xa is displayed at the press preview for the Turner prize 2025 at the Cartwright Hall art gallery
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA
Market Closes for September 24^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46121.28	-171.50
		-0.37%
S&P 500	6637.97	-18.95
		-0.28%
NASDAQ	22497.86	-75.61
		-0.34%
TSX	29756.95	-58.68
		-0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45630.31	+136.65
		+0.30%
HANG SENG	26518.65	+359.53
		+1.37%
SENSEX	81715.63	-386.47
		-0.47%
FTSE 100*	9250.43	+27.11
		+0.29%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.204	3.188
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.674	3.658
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1466	4.1061
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7507	4.7193

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7196	0.7228
US $	1.3896	1.3835

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6321	0.6127
US $	1.1745	0.8514

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3783.80	3719.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.49	63.81

Market Commentary:
When the well is dry, we know the worth of water. -Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.2%, or 58.68 to 29,756.95 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.2%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.2%.
Today, 106 of 213 shares fell, while 104 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.2%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 33.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.5% in the past 5 days and rose 5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.78t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.16% compared with 7.05% in the previous session and the average of 8.80% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -63.4936| -0.7| 6/18
Materials | -40.4575| -0.8| 17/34
Real Estate | -4.6906| -0.9| 3/14
Communication Services | -1.7441| -0.3| 1/4
Consumer Discretionary | -1.6446| -0.2| 5/4
Information Technology | -0.2330| 0.0| 5/4
Health Care | 0.3689| 0.5| 1/3
Consumer Staples | 2.1883| 0.2| 4/6
Utilities | 4.9826| 0.5| 13/1
Industrials | 8.4143| 0.3| 19/10
Energy | 37.6172| 0.8| 30/8
Brookfield Corp | -22.0900| -2.2| 55.4| 17.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -18.1900| -2.3| -29.1| 95.3
Celestica | -17.7100| -6.2| -6.6| 151.9
Nutrien | 13.7400| 5.2| 116.9| 27.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 16.1900| 2.5| 29.7| 2.6
Constellation Software | 19.1400| 3.4| 39.2| -6.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s torrid surge from April’s meltdown is showing signs of exhaustion as stock traders await fresh catalysts amid risks stemming from a labor-market slowdown to sticky inflation.
While the S&P 500 has defied September’s gloomy reputation as the worst month for equity returns, the gauge failed to gain traction on Wednesday.
The market ebullience saw the index notching almost 30 records in 2025, eclipsing the average year- end analyst forecast and spurring calls for consolidation.
At Bank of America Corp., Savita Subramanian noted that on 19 of 20 metrics, the US equity benchmark is trading at statistically expensive levels.
Bullish investors should keep hedging their portfolios as more and more people chase this year’s stock-market rally, according to Nomura Securities International Inc.’s Charlie McElligott.
Euphoria over AI has turned skeptics into equity buyers at higher levels.
This behavior alongside many players at or near maximum exposure has built up downside risk in stocks, he noted.
“Timeout called,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“The trend of strong gains isn’t over yet.
However, the short-term risk-reward profile is becoming more compressed as stocks extend higher while underlying momentum fades.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
Micron Technology Inc., which has almost doubled this year, sank despite an upbeat forecast.
Intel Corp. was said to seek an investment from Apple Inc. as part of a comeback bid.
Oracle Corp. sold $18 billion investment-grade bonds.
Treasury yields and the dollar rose.
Despite the lack of strength on Wednesday, the stock market is holding near its record on the view that the economy is not falling off a cliff and growth will be bolstered by improving corporate profits and the artificial-intelligence boom.
Subramanian at BofA notes that the S&P 500’s multiple may be warranted given better visibility/predictability.
“In theory, investors pay up for predictable assets and are compensated for uncertainty.
Perhaps we should anchor to today’s multiples as the ‘new normal’ rather than expecting mean reversion to a bygone era.”
At JPMorgan Chase & Co., Andrew Tyler said “several conversations yesterday focused on what could derail this bullish run.
My favorite response was an asteroid hitting the earth.”
Yet after a nearly 35% rally in the S&P 500 from April’s lows, even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted this week that equity prices are “fairly highly valued.”
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, that comment appeared “observational rather than cautionary.”
Nonetheless, we could see a period of “consolidation” in the near term.
“That said, sentiment and positioning indicators suggest the rally is underpinned by cautious optimism rather than speculative excess,” Hackett noted.
“This positioning and sentiment backdrop supports a constructive outlook for equities.”
The stock market’s sustained push during the traditionally weak seasonal period appears to be fueling “bubble” talk, especially in regard to tech, according to Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“While even the strongest rallies inevitably experience retracements, and the market certainly faces ongoing policy and economic uncertainties, there are good reasons to believe this talk is misplaced,” he said.
Over the past 50 years, there have been five bull markets that lasted more than two years, and the average length was eight years.
We’re not quite three years into this bull market, which dates back to October 2022, he noted.
This week, the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio touched a high of 22.9, a level that this century was exceeded in just two prior instances: the dotcom bust and the pandemic rally in the summer of 2020 when the Fed reduced interest rates to near zero.
Of course, risks abound, from sticky inflation to the expansion of the US job market moderating.
“The stagflation issue keeps popping its head up every few months,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
Whether Friday’s key price data adds to stagflation fears — or minimizes them — should be important for how the market acts as we move into the month of October, he said.
“We view the Fed’s easing cycle as broadly supportive for equities, quality bonds, and gold, and we continue to recommend a whole-of-portfolio approach when putting cash to work,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Ongoing US labor market softness should allow the Fed to cut rates further, she said, adding that her firm sees 25 basis points in cuts at each meeting through January 2026.
In her base case, the S&P 500 should trade near 6,800 by June 2026, with a bull case outcome closer to 7,500.
The gauge closed at 6,637.97 Wednesday.
“Even though a digestion of recent gains is always possible, history says (but does not guarantee) that it will be mild,” said Sam Stovall at CFRA.
Since World War II, no calendar year that started with a decline of more than 11% went on to have a second slump of greater than 10% within the same year.
“Volatility, on the other hand, should be expected in October, since its standard deviation of monthly returns was 33% higher than the average for the other 11 months of the year,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Micron Technology Inc. fell after a generally upbeat forecast from the memory-chip maker failed to impress investors, underscoring Wall Street’s lofty expectations following an extraordinary rally this year.
* Microsoft Corp. will start using artificial intelligence models from Anthropic to help power its workplace AI assistant, adding a significant partner to a product that has so far been predominantly driven by OpenAI.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. revealed plans to ramp up AI spending past an original $50 billion-plus target, joining tech leaders pledging ever-greater sums toward a global race for technological breakthroughs.
* Nexstar Media Group Inc., one of the largest owners of ABC TV stations, said it is engaged in “productive discussions” with Walt Disney Co. about the Jimmy Kimmel Live! program.
* US Health and Human Services resurfaced an old social media post from an account that appeared to be Tylenol’s that cautioned against its use by pregnant women after the Trump administration linked the over-the-counter medication to autism.
* Charles Schwab Corp. would like to give its retail investors more opportunities to take stakes in private companies as a growing number of firms become industry giants before going public, Chief Executive Officer Rick Wurster said.
* Lithium Americas Corp. soared after reports the Trump administration is pursuing a stake in the company.
* Freeport-McMoRan Inc. said force majeure was declared on contracted supplies from its giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second-largest source of the metal.
* Utility Xcel Energy Inc. agreed to pay about $640 million to resolve claims that its power lines contributed to the 2021 ignition of the costliest wildfire in Colorado history, averting a jury trial with billions of dollars at stake.
* Medline is considering filing publicly for an IPO as soon as in late October, according to people familiar with the matter, in what could be the biggest US listing this year.
* Tether Holdings SA has weathered market meltdowns, regulatory troubles and an influx of new challengers. Now the crypto firm is chasing a roughly $500 billion valuation — a towering ambition, even in a private-market era awash with capital.
* SAP SE announced deals with OpenAI and Amazon Web Services to expand its “digital sovereignty” offerings to European governments.
* L’Oreal SA appointed Alexis Perakis-Valat as chief executive officer of its US and North America business, turning to a company veteran to drive growth in the largest cosmetics market.
* Iberdrola SA is doubling down on its multibillion-dollar bet that global power grids will drive growth as demand for electricity for artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and heavy industry increases.
* TotalEnergies SE said it will buy back fewer shares in the fourth quarter and into next year as it contends with mounting debts and a challenging oil-market outlook.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1739
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3448
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 148.86 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $113,548.67
* Ether fell 0.3% to $4,164.62
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.75%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.2% to $64.82 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,730.44 an ounce

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn.  Before you invest, investigate.  Before you criticize, wait.  Before you pray, forgive.  Before you quit, try.  Before you retire, save.  Before you die, give. –William A. Ward, 1921-1994.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Rosh Hashanah.

September 23, 1846: Planet Neptune discovered; Johann Galle discovers the planet, confirming Le Verrier’s prediction and reshaping planetary science. Go to article.
On this day in 1998, Wall Street’s top investment banks, encouraged by the Federal Reserve, completed marathon negotiations for a bailout of the giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.

Euripides, playwright, b. 480 BC
John Coltrane, musician, b. 1926.
Ray Charles, singer, b. 1930.
Julio Inglesias, singer, b. 1943.
Bruce Springteen, musician, b. 1949.

US blocks Iranian diplomats from shopping at Costco
Iranian officials visiting New York for the UN General Assembly are banned from shopping at Costco. Here’s why the wholesale clubs are off-limits.

American makes history at one of France’s top cheese competitions
Brie-lieve it or not, an American just took the top prize at one of France’s most prestigious cheese competitions.

Spider-Man had a bit of an accident
Actor Tom Holland plans to take a break from filming the latest “Spider-Man” movie after suffering a concussion.

Taxis for women only
Amid a rise in attacks on female cab drivers, a mother-daughter team has launched a women-only taxi service to rival rideshare apps like Uber.

Angelina Jolie says she loves America but doesn’t recognize it right now
“These are very, very heavy times we are living in together,” the Oscar-winning actress said about the country’s political climate.

400,000: That’s how many people officials are preparing to relocate from low-lying and coastal areas in China’s southern city of Shenzhen as Typhoon Ragasa barrels toward the region.

Harry Styles runs Berlin Marathon
Eagle-eyed fans spotted British pop star Harry Styles running the Berlin Marathon on Sunday! See the video here.

‘Cleopatra’s Final Secret’ documentary reveals hundreds of coins and port found in Egypt. But does that mean Cleopatra was buried there?

Hundreds of coins that depict Cleopatra VII have been discovered in an Egyptian temple. The archaeologist who led the team believes the female pharaoh’s tomb is nearby. Read More.

Soar through 44 million stars in Gaia telescope’s latest 3D map of our galaxy

Scientists have used the Gaia Space Telescope to create a 3D map of star kindergartens within the Milky Way, and you can fly through it. Read More.

Quantum internet inches closer thanks to new chip — it helps beam quantum signals over real-world fiber optic cables

Researchers used the Q‑Chip to send quantum data over standard fiber using Internet Protocol (IP), showing that future quantum networks could run on today’s internet infrastructure. Read More.

‘Shocking’: Astronomers find monster black hole growing at 2.4 times the theoretical limit

Scientists spotted an enormous black hole in the early universe that’s growing at 2.4 times the theoretical Eddington limit. Studying it further could help answer one of the biggest questions
in astrophysics. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bogotá, Colombia
People look at Argentinian sculptor Leandro Erlich’s work Arrancada de raíz (Uprooted), displayed as part of BOG25, Bogotá’s inaugural International Biennial of Art and City, in Plaza de Lourdes
Photograph: Mauricio Dueñas Castañeda/EPA

Amsterdam, Netherlands
An art restorer points at the image of a barking dog in Rembrandt’s The Night Watch. Rembrandt based the dog on an early 17th-century drawing by Adriaen van de Venne, according to research carried out as part of Operation Night Watch, the most comprehensive study ever undertaken of the painting
Photograph: Peter Dejong/AP

​​​​​​​London, England
A heron takes flight during sunrise in Richmond Park
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Market Closes for September 23^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46292.78	-88.76
		-0.19%
S&P 500	6656.92	-36.83
		-0.55%
NASDAQ	22573.47	-215.51
		-0.95%
TSX	29815.63	-143.35
		-0.48%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45493.66	+447.85
		+0.99%
HANG SENG	26159.12	-185.02
		-0.70%
SENSEX	82102.10	-57.87
		-0.07%
FTSE 100*	9223.32	-3.36
		-0.04%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.188	3.199
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.658	3.664
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1061	4.1467
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7193	4.7625

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7228	0.7234
US $	1.3835	1.3823

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6347	0.6117
US $	1.1814	0.8464

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3719.70	3663.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.81	62.68

Market Commentary:
Welch’s genius was the capacity to energize and inspire hundreds of thousands of people across a range of businesses and countries. –Warren G. Bennis, USC Business professor, as quoted in Business Week, September 10, 2001, referring to retiring CEO Jack Welch of General Electric.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 29,815.63 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Aug.
25 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 97 of 213 shares fell, while 111 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.5%.
AtkinsRealis Group Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.6%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.4%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 34.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 5.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.8t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.05% compared with 6.75% in the previous session and the average of 8.88% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology| -118.2230| -3.8| 1/8
Industrials | -51.2053| -1.5| 6/23
Financials | -29.6085| -0.3| 8/14
Consumer Discretionary| -4.0121| -0.4| 2/7
Materials | -3.2844| -0.1| 28/22
Real Estate | -2.8447| -0.5| 6/12
Health Care | 0.5733| 0.7| 2/2
Communication Services| 3.1448| 0.5| 4/1
Utilities | 3.9304| 0.4| 11/3
Consumer Staples | 9.0188| 0.9| 8/2
Energy | 49.1653| 1.1| 35/3
Shopify | -83.5200| -4.5| 3.6| 35.6
Constellation | Software | -27.8600| -4.8| 84.5| -10.0
Brookfield Corp | -14.4600| -1.4| 14.9| 19.9
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 6.9520| 0.9| 2.0| 99.9
Bank of Montreal | 8.1530| 0.9| -34.3| 29.5
Enbridge | 9.7440| 0.9| -47.1| 12.5
(MT Newswires):
(Updates to add a report the Bank of Montreal is considering the sale of some U.S. branches.)
After running up to a record intraday high above the 30,000 marks for the first time early Tuesday, the Toronto Stock Exchange then succumbed to profit taking over the remainder of the session as market watchers awaited and then digested a mid-afternoon speech from Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem.
Despite higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 143.35 points, or 0.5%, to 29,815.63, even with most sectors higher.
The Battery Metals Index was up 3.9% and Energy up 1%.
Among the biggest losers, Info Tech was down 2.9% and Industrials down 1.5%.
“In stock specific news, The Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) has recently explored a sale of some of its U.S. branches with roughly US$6 billion in deposits, according to people familiar with the matter.
The bank is seeking to unload certain locations after its deal to buy Bank of the West, it said.
On the domestic economics front, there has not yet been much of a reaction to Macklem, who delivered a speech mid-afternoon Eastern Time on global trade disruption to Saskatchewan business leaders.
Of note, Macklem said trad growth in Canada had slowed well before the re-election of President Trump in the United States, adding trade as a share of Canadian GDP stopped increasing in about 2000.
But, Macklem said, Canadian exports have declined sharply since Trump imposed new tariffs on Canada and “created considerable uncertainty” with tariff threats and reversals.
In the longer term, Macklem said, increased trade friction with the United States means Canada’s economy will work “less efficiently, with added costs and less income”.
He added: “We need to diversify our trade by growing our internal market and finding new overseas markets.
And we need to improve our productivity and make ourselves more attractive to investors.
That work has started, and I’ve spoken about all these things before.”
Just ahead of the close of equity trading, Desjardins Macro Strategist Tiago Figueiredo offered a quick take on the speech.
In his prepared remarks, Figueiredo noted, Macklem indicated that the trade war with the United States has pushed Canada onto a permanently lower path for economic activity.
“He [Macklem] then noted that monetary and even counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus are not long-term solutions to the problems at hand.
Structural reforms that help improve Canada’s productivity and competitiveness by diversifying away from the US are changes that could improve long-term domestic growth prospects.
The Governor noted that some of these require little fiscal cost and could be implemented quickly.
He suggested reducing inter-provincial barriers, mutually recognizing labour accreditation for certain professions, and reducing regulatory approvals and uncertainty.”
“However,” Figueiredo said, “Macklem noted that monetary policy can support the economy through this period of adjustment.
Economic activity has deteriorated, in part as a result of the trade war with the US, but concerns around inflation had held the central bank back from easing until recently.
Going forward, Macklem said that his central bank remains prepared to react to new information and support economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well controlled.
That’s broadly in line with last week’s communications, which saw the Bank refraining from providing specific forward guidance.
That said, it could also be argued that Macklem did not feel the need to push back against market expectations for more easing.
As a result, we remain comfortable holding the view that Canadian central bankers will lower their policy rate to a trough of 2.00%.”
Of commodities, gold futures continued their record run, rising above the US$3,800 mark for the first time as lower interest rates and safe-haven buying support the precious metal.
Gold for December delivery was up $38.50 to US$3,813.60 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher, rebounding from four losing sessions as Chinese demand continues to offset rising supply.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed up $1.13 to settle at US$63.41 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen up $0.90 to US$67.47.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks down from all-time highs, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offering no hints on whether he might support a rate cut at the central bank’s October meeting.
Bonds held gains.
Following a series of records, equities took a breather amid a slide in big tech.
Powell said the outlooks for the labor market and inflation face risks, reiterating his view that policymakers likely have a difficult road ahead as they weigh further interest-rate cuts.
“Powell says nothing new,” noted Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.
To David Russell at TradeStation, Powell is laying the groundwork for tariffs boosting inflation in the fourth quarter.
He’s giving officials room to maneuver against political pressure, and softening the message by saying the impact will be short lived.
Fed officials lowered their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point last week and penciled in two more reductions this year following months of intense pressure from the White House to slash borrowing costs.
“Powell doesn’t want to antagonize the White House but he’s not rolling over either,” Russell said.
“He’s keeping his options open in case price pressures increase.
Powell’s not trying to sound hawkish, but he’s trying to dodge some of the forceful demand for aggressive cuts.”
While most shares in the S&P 500 rose, the index slipped.
A gauge of tech mega caps lost 1.5%.
In late hours, Micron Technology Inc. gave an upbeat forecast.
Ten-year yields slid four basis points to 4.11%.
The dollar wavered.
Gold held its record.
Oil climbed amid tensions between NATO and Russia.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, Powell continues to signal he’s more focused on the labor market.
“There is reason to expect Powell to be onboard with rate cuts at each of the next two meetings,” he said.
Some policymakers are becoming more concerned about growing risks to the labor market, while others remain primarily worried about the possibility that above-target inflation could be pushed higher by tariffs and other policies.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said officials need to act decisively to bring down rates as the labor market weakens.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he sees more inflation coming, echoing remarks from his Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee.
Powell on Stocks
“While some hawkish Fed officials put a lot of weight on market developments and see this as a reason to be wary about cutting rates any further in the near term, this is not the way Powell and the core group think,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
Guha also noted that Powell declined a clear invitation to signal alarm about stock gains or suggest that the ebullience in the market is leading to the Fed having second thoughts about dovish policy.
“He agreed with his questioner that prices look highly valued by historic standards and said the Fed looks at financial conditions.
But he made it clear that it is not the Fed’s job to target stock prices or decide what the right valuation should be.
In other words, employment, and inflation trump stock prices,” Guha said.
Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise noted that since May, the 10-year Treasury yield has been on a bumpy decline, and the S&P 500 has posted strong gains over the same period.
Simply, lower rates make future corporate earnings more attractive when discounted to their present value — supporting higher equity valuations.
“Lower discount rates increase the present value of future cash flows for companies, making equities more appealing relative to fixed income alternatives, all else equal,” Saglimbene added.
Prospects of further rate cuts, surprisingly strong profit growth and enthusiasm for Big Tech companies that are capitalizing on artificial intelligence have all kept equities near their all-time highs.
The record-setting advance has pushed the S&P 500 nearly 3% above the average year-end forecast among those tracked by Bloomberg, which currently stands at 6,486.
Only in 2024 and 1999 have the analyst calls lagged the market’s actual return so
much around this time of the year.
“The bull market in equities is ‘alive and kicking’,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“While we maintain our bullish outlook over the intermediate- to longer-term, we also recognize that the SPX has advanced for nearly five straight months without a material pullback.”
His year-end S&P 500 price objective of 6,600 has recently been achieved, and short-term momentum has modestly eased.
Johnson says he’ll review his year-end objective and look to establish a 2026 objective in the beginning of the fourth quarter.
The gauge hovered near 6,650.
Meantime, a burst of activity is powering the US IPO market toward its busiest month since the final innings of a manic 2021.
Klarna Group Plc and Netskope Inc.’s successful outings led the charge, lifting September’s US initial public offerings volume so far to $7.6 billion, excluding financial vehicles such as blank-check firms.
Newly public companies delivered a weighted-average return of 17%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. assured customers that its landmark deal with OpenAI to invest $100 billion and expand AI infrastructure together won’t affect the chipmaker’s relationship with other clients.
* Google is introducing an artificial intelligence assistant that can offer live coaching to mobile gamers, part of a larger effort to boost engagement on its Android platform.
* ASM International NV cut its sales outlook for the second half of the year, citing lower-than-anticipated demand from some of the semiconductor equipment maker’s clients.
* Nexstar Media Group Inc. said it would join Sinclair Inc., another large owner of ABC TV stations, in not airing Jimmy Kimmel Live! on Tuesday night.
* Walt Disney Co. is hiking the cost of its Disney+ streaming service without advertising by $3 to $19 a month. The cost of a plan with ads will rise by $2 to $12 monthly, the company said. The new pricing will go into effect Oct. 21.
* Boeing Co. will partner with Palantir Technologies Inc. to integrate artificial intelligence on current and future defense programs and in its factories.
** Boeing and Uzbekistan Airways unveiled a deal for as many as 22 of the US plane maker’s 787 Dreamliner jets, the largest-ever order in the airline’s history.
* The Trump administration linked Tylenol to autism and urged pregnant women to avoid the common pain medication despite the lack of widely accepted scientific evidence supporting the risk.
* Johnson & Johnson is withdrawing a device to treat debilitating acid reflux disease from markets outside the US, a move surgeons warned would set back the available treatment options for sufferers by more than a decade and also impact lung transplant patients.
* Lowe’s Cos. sold $5 billion of bonds to help fund its pending acquisition of Foundation Building Materials, one of the few September buyout financings in the US investment-grade market as overall issuance set a record for the month.
* Firefly Aerospace Inc. reported second-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, as the small-rocket launcher works to ramp up the frequency of its flights and win new contracts.
* AutoZone Inc. reported comparable sales for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Investment giants KKR & Co. and Blackstone Inc. are leading a combined $17 billion investment in the natural gas industry, marking a massive push of private funds into a sector helping to quench artificial intelligence firms’ relentless thirst for energy.
** KKR and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board on Tuesday agreed to pay $10 billion for a 45% equity stake in Sempra’s infrastructure arm, which builds liquefied natural gas projects.
* L’Oréal SA, named by Giorgio Armani as a potential investor in the late Italian fashion mogul’s eponymous business, would only be interested in its profitable beauty arm, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc extended its production shutdown yet again as the cyberattack that’s crippled the carmaker persists.
* Huawei Technologies Co. openly admits its silicon can’t match Nvidia’s in raw power and speed. So to pack the same punch, China’s national champion is counting on its traditional strengths: brute force, networking, and policy support.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“For the year as a whole, the SPX has rallied on 57.2% of trading days.
That’s actually higher than the last few years (despite the strong rallies of 2021, 2023, and 2024), though it’s slightly below the Covid year of 2020 (57.3%).
There is of course time to best that win rate through the end of the year, but at this juncture it’s likely to be a struggle to best 2019’s mark of rallies on 59.5% of trading days.”
—Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.55% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1817
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3525
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1% to $111,675.42
* Ether fell 0.7% to $4,154.7
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.11%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.68%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.59%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.3% to $63.69 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,764.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Wise men say nothing in dangerous times. –Aesop, c.620 BCE-564 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Autumnal Equinox!🍂
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Today is the Autumnal equinox – two moments in the year when the Sun is exactly above the Equator and day and night are of equal length; also, either of the two points in the sky where the ecliptic (the Sun’s annual pathway) and the celestial equator intersect. 🍂 
Fall begins in the northern hemisphere today.

September 22, 1832: During his HMS Beagle voyage, Charles Darwin discovers a large number of fossils at Punta Alta in Argentina
September 22, 1862 :US President Abraham Lincoln issues the preliminary Emancipation Proclamation, threatening to free all enslaved people in the rebel Southern states if those states fail to rejoin the Union by January 1, 1863
September 22, 1896: Queen Victoria surpasses her grandfather King George III as the longest reigning monarch in British history
September 22, 2001 Congress approved $15 billion to help an airline industry reeling from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Go to article

1,600-year-old coin hoard found in complex tunnel system under Galilee dates to last Jewish rebellion against Romans
Archaeologists found a 1,600-year-old coin hoard dating to the final Jewish revolt against Romans.

Fireworks in Himalayas spark outrage, forcing outdoor brand Arc’teryx to apologize
The sight of a multi-colored fireworks exploding in the foothills of the Himalayas has sparked a furious environmental backlash, prompting a local government investigation in China and forcing global outdoor apparel brand Arc’teryx to issue an apology.

Here are the 30 best gifts for coffee lovers, handpicked by coffee geeks.
Some coffee drinkers simply enjoy their morning cup, but this gift guide is for coffee lovers. I’m talking about the kind of enthusiasts who wax poetic about single-origin beans by day and crave White Russians by night.

Britain’s First-Ever TV Ad
On this day 1955 Commercial television begins in the UK with the launch of ITV, which soon airs the first advert on UK TV for Gibbs SR toothpaste

Inle Lake, Myanmar
Inntha people row their traditional boats past pagodas in southern Shan state
Photograph: Thein Zaw/AP

Paris, France
Waiters and waitresses, dressed in their work uniforms, compete in the traditional ‘Course des cafes’ (the cafes’ race), a 4km race in which competitors carry a tray with water, coffee and a croissant
Photograph: Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty Images
Malatya, Turkey
Purebred Arabian horses seen from above at the Sultansuyu Agricultural Enterprise
Photograph: Okan Coskun/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 22^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46381.54	+66.27
		+0.14%
S&P 500	6693.75	+29.39
		+0.44%
NASDAQ	22788.98	+157.50
		+0.70%
TSX	29958.98	+190.62
		+0.64%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45493.66	+447.85
		+0.99%
HANG SENG	26344.14	-200.96
		-0.76%
SENSEX	82159.97	-466.26
		-0.56%
FTSE 100*	9226.68	+10.01
		+0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.199	3.200
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.664	3.651
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1467	4.1274
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7625	4.7438

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7234	0.7254
US $	1.3823	1.3785

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6313	0.6130
US $	1.1802	0.8473

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3663.15	3643.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.68	63.57

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1985, finance ministers and central bankers of the U.S., France, Germany, Japan and the U.K., meeting at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, announced coordinated measures to reduce the foreign-currency value of the U.S. dollar, which was near all-time highs. The “Plaza Accord” worked, as the dollar began a decade-long decline, spurring U.S. exports and creating a windfall for U.S. investors in foreign stocks.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.6%, or 190.62 to 29,958.98 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 15.9%.
Today, 140 of 213 shares rose, while 72 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 12%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.9%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 34.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.8% in the past 5 days and rose 5.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.75t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.75% compared with 6.67% in the previous session and the average of 9.02% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 116.3428| 2.4| 44/7
Financials | 38.7099| 0.4| 12/12
Energy | 32.0211| 0.7| 33/6
Information Technology | 26.7924| 0.9| 7/2
Utilities | 6.0898| 0.6| 10/4
Health Care | -0.1725| -0.2| 2/2
Real Estate | -0.8462| -0.2| 8/11
Communication Services | -2.5055| -0.4| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9209| -0.3| 5/4
Industrials | -5.0088| -0.1| 17/11
Consumer Staples | -17.8766| -1.8| 2/8
Shopify | 48.3200| 2.7| -22.9| 42.0
Barrick Mining | 40.3800| 7.4| 90.2| 119.6
RBC | 23.1700| 1.2| 2.0| 18.6
RB Global | -6.6220| -3.1| 44.3| 22.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.2290| -1.2| -1.1| -0.9
Constellation Software | -30.1900| -4.9| 48.9| -5.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday posted its 17th record finish in 22 sessions as artificial intelligence was very much top to the fore in North America news and views, but Rosenberg Research and National Bank were divided on what impact AI is already having on their respective investment theses.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 190.62 points, or 0.6%, at 29,958.98, with the Battery Metals Index up near 3.2%, and both Energy and Base Metals up near 1.4%.
In contrast no sector fell as much as even 0.5%, while Information Technology was little changed.
In contrast, U.S. equity indexes were higher as technology stocks rallied there, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.7%, boosted by news around AI.
One of the big news stories of the day is that U.S. chipmaker and tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) plans to invest up to US$100 billion in startup OpenAI under a new agreement.
Only days ago, Nvidia had committed US$5 billion to Intel (INTC) while it is also partnering to invest up to 11 billion British pounds in the U.K.
The AI news updates come as David Rosenberg and Edward Campbell at Rosenberg Research published a note that said, “structural forces like AI, decarbonization, and demographics are becoming bigger drivers of change than the traditional business cycle”.
Among key takeaways in their note, Rosenberg and Campbell said for much of the modern era, investors relied on the business cycle as their compass, timing expansions, recessions, and central bank pivots.
They added: “That signal is now fading, as structural ‘mega-forces’ are reshaping markets in ways cycles alone cannot explain”.
According to Rosenberg and Campbell, these forces include AI and automation, decarbonization, geopolitical realignment, demographic shifts, and digital finance.
“These are not passing winds, but tectonic shifts, redirecting capital and redefining winners and losers,” the duo said, before adding: “In this new regime, cycles are ripples atop deeper tides, and the edge lies in mapping long arcs of change rather than calling the next storm”.
But in another AI related note, National Bank noted Constellation Software (CSU.TO) hosted a Q&A panel session on AI with President Mark Leonard and four of the company’s AI specialists to discuss the impact of AI on the company.
What’s clear from the session is that Constellation is engaged in AI, but the company has not seen a clear, positive or negative, impact on its business, the bank said.
“Overall,” National Bank added, “while the session was informative to addressing how Constellation is approaching AI, there was nothing material to change our investment thesis.
In our view, the company is taking a pragmatic approach to AI much like they’ve done with everything else that’s made them successful.
For Constellation, that means there’s nothing conclusive to say on the topic of AI at this point.”
Constellation shares closed down near 5% on the TSX.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Monday, continuing to run up on expectations around further interest-rate cuts, a weak dollar and strong safe-haven demand.
Gold for December delivery was up $74.70 to US$3,780.50 per ounce, rising above the Sept.16 record close of US$3.725.10.
But West Texas Intermediate oil slipped again, falling for a fourth session as the market focuses on rising supply and slowing autumn demand even as geopolitical worries continue to limit losses.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.04 to settle at US$62.64 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.06 to US$66.62.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders defied calls for a breather after a $15 trillion stock rally from April lows, with Nvidia Corp. boosting optimism on artificial intelligence after pledging to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI.
Tech led gains in the S&P 500, with the US equity benchmark hitting its 28th record this year.
The world’s largest chipmaker rallied about 4%.
Its investment is intended to help OpenAI build data centers with a capacity of 10 gigawatts of power using Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to train and deploy OpenAI’s models.
At a time when equities are yet again at all-time highs on the back of strength in big tech, investors should be “responsibly bullish,” according to Tony Pasquariello at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“Do I love the positioning setup and tactical risk/reward?
I don’t,” he wrote. “Do I think you should be stepping in front of the US mega cap tech freight train? I don’t.”
Action was relatively muted in the bond market, with US yields slightly higher ahead of this week’s key inflation gauge and a trio of Treasury auctions.
The dollar halted a three-day gain.
The crypto world got hit. Gold rose to a record.
Several Fed officials are set to speak at public events, including Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.
In his first policy speech since joining the Fed, Governor Stephen Miran laid out his argument for aggressively lowering interest rates.
Meantime, Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem noted he sees limited room for cuts amid elevated inflation.
His Cleveland counterpart Beth Hammack said officials should be cautious to avoid overheating the economy.
Investor focus is likely to shift to the Fed’s tolerance of sticky inflation in 2026, and away from worries about a weaker labor market, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
“Should the administration’s intention to ‘run it hot’ play out next year while the Fed cuts rates, revenue and earnings growth could come in much stronger than expected,” he wrote.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief US equity strategist, David Kostin, boosted his three-month price target for the S&P 500 to 6,800 on Friday.
He also lifted six- and 12-month estimates to 7,000 and 7,200, respectively.
The gauge traded near 6,700 on Monday.
“During the past 40 years, the S&P 500 has generated a 15% median 12-month return when the Fed resumed cutting rates against a backdrop of continued economic growth,” he noted.
Stocks have been bucking the historical September weakness so far, thanks to an extremely favorable setup with Fed rate cuts, strong earnings, solid economic growth and muted inflation, according to Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
“The stock-market’s strength is making it tougher to put new money to work, as valuations are rising, which makes it all the more important for investors to be selective and bottoms up,” he said.
History shows that rallies similar to the one the market has seen this year are difficult to derail.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has advanced by roughly 5.5% on average in the final four months of the year when it has notched at least 20 records by late August, as it did this year, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA Research.
Those gains could come with a few bumps in the road, Stovall said.
Still, “while another retreat in stocks may be looming, traders haven’t expended all of the market’s fuel yet,” he said.
Pockets of exuberance are appearing as equity positioning in the US keeps climbing, Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte said.
Yet it isn’t close to extremes that would suggest lopsided risks of reversal, he added.
“Of course, there are reasons to be mindful, given the current high valuations compared to long-term averages,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“After such a strong recent run, a period of consolidation should not come as a surprise, in our view.”
Still, his base case calls for the S&P 500 to reach 6,800 by June 2026.
And in a bull case, he sees the index hitting 7,500.
There was no sign of seasonal weakness in the first three weeks of September, but with the Fed’s rate cut in the rearview mirror, the market will be searching for fresh sources of momentum, according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“In the short term, if economic data comes in soft, it may need to be in a ‘Goldilocks’ zone — soft enough for the Fed to continue cutting, but not weak enough to fuel recession concerns — for the market to avoid excessive volatility bumps,” he said.
The Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation likely grew at a slower pace last month, offering policymakers some breathing room to address weakness in the US labor market.
A report on Friday is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July.
On an annual basis, the so-called core measure is seen holding at a still- elevated 2.9%.
“August PCE is likely to show gradual tariff passthrough into goods prices and moderating services inflation,” said Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.
“Personal income and spending likely moderated.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. would provide security and help oversee the re- creation of a new US version of TikTok’s algorithm under a deal taking shape to sell the popular Chinese-owned app to a consortium of American investors, a White House official said.
** Oracle promoted two executives, Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia, to the joint role of chief executive officer. Safra Catz, who has led the company since 2014, will become the executive vice chair of the board.
* Walt Disney Co. said Jimmy Kimmel Live! will return to the air on Tuesday, ending a suspension imposed following controversial remarks its ABC late-night host made about the assassination of Republican activist Charlie Kirk.
* ASML Holding NV’s recent rally got a fresh boost on Monday as Morgan Stanley joined the ranks of the stock’s bulls, signaling that the chip-equipment maker may at last show a major uplift from artificial intelligence demand.
* Pfizer Inc. will pay $4.9 billion for the obesity startup Metsera Inc. in a bid to catch up to rival drugmakers after failing to compete with its own weight-loss medications.
* CVS Health Corp. subsidiary Omnicare Inc. has filed for bankruptcy after the pharmacy-services provider was ordered to pay $949 million over claims it improperly dispensed prescription drugs to individuals in long-term care.
* T-Mobile US Inc. is promoting Chief Operating Officer Srini Gopalan, to the top job, teeing up a new era for the US’s second-largest wireless carrier as it competes for customers in a market that now also spans home internet and satellite service.
* Walmart Inc. will start delivering refrigerated prescriptions to homes as the world’s largest retailer looks to expand the reach of its pharmacy and deliveries.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to move forward with its seventh oil project in Guyana after receiving required regulatory approvals, according to a statement.
* MetLife Inc. expects third-period income from its private equity and real estate investments to meet its quarterly target for the first time this year, according to a filing Monday.
* Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. sank after the owner of Canada Dry and Snapple brands was hit with its only sell rating from BNP Paribas Exane.
* Compass Inc. agreed to buy Anywhere Real Estate Inc. in a deal that would create a combined company with a roughly $10 billion enterprise value, cementing Compass’s status as the largest residential brokerage in the US.
* ODP Corp., owner of the Office Depot retail chain, is being acquired by private equity firm Atlas Holdings for about $1 billion.
* Newly formed Strive Inc. agreed to acquire Semler Scientific Inc. in a deal that combines two publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies.
* Porsche AG scaled back its electric-vehicle plans, correcting an expensive strategy that’s depressed its margins and is dragging down parent Volkswagen AG.
* Roche Holding AG’s experimental drug giredestrant helped patients with a form of advanced breast cancer live longer without the disease worsening in an advanced trial.
* BBVA SA raised the value of its takeover bid for Banco Sabadell SA by about 10%, a last-ditch effort to get a deal over the line that’s been delayed by regulatory reviews and government opposition for more than a year.
* Samsung Electronics Co. jumped after reports it’s won approval from Nvidia Corp. for the use of advanced memory chips, which marks a breakthrough for the Korean technology leader.
* BYD Co. fell after a report that Warren Buffett’s investment firm offloaded its stake in the Chinese electric-vehicle maker.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The balance of risks heading into a big week filled with Federal Reserve speakers tilts toward pricing for additional interest-rate cuts — a scenario that will put a floor under stocks.”

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
* Nvidia rose 3.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1799
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3516
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 147.74 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $112,198.11
* Ether fell 7.6% to $4,137.7
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.71%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.77%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 1.7% to $3,747.97 an ounce

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants.”– Hon Louis Dembitz Brandeis

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

September 19, 1960:  LIFE magazine celebrates artist Anna Mary “Grandma” Moses’ 100th birthday by putting her on their cover
September 19, 2005: TV sitcom “How I Met Your Mother” premieres, starring Josh Radnor, Neil Patrick Harris, Cobie Smulders, Jason Segel and Alyson Hannigan
September 19, 2008: Struggling to stave off financial catastrophe, the Bush administration asked Congress for $700 billion to buy up troubled mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions. Go to article

Tiny ‘brains’ grown in the lab could become conscious and feel pain — and we’re not ready
Lab-grown brain tissue is too simple to experience consciousness, but as innovation progresses, neuroscientists question whether it’s time to revisit the ethics of this line of research.

First-ever black hole to be directly imaged has changed ‘dramatically’ in just 4 years, new study finds
The polarization pattern around M87* — the first black hole to be directly imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope — has changed direction, and scientists aren’t sure why.

New report warns that China could overtake the US as top nation in space — and it could happen ‘in 5-10 years,’ expert claims
A new report from the Commercial Space Federation warns that China could soon overtake the U.S. in the “new space race.” The country’s rapid progression starkly contrasts the limitations imposed on NASA by record-breaking budget cuts.

Skywatching alert! See 2 bright comets on the same night as a meteor shower this October
Comet C/2025 R2 (SWAN) can now be seen with binoculars close to Mars in the western sky after sunset.

Saturn will be at its biggest and brightest on Sept. 21 — here’s how to see it
In a once-a-year event, Saturn is about to reach opposition, with the ringed planet appearing its best and brightest as it approaches its closest point to Earth.

Vast source of rare Earth metal niobium was dragged to the surface when a supercontinent tore apart
Potentially the largest known source of niobium discovered in central Australia formed 830 million years ago, and we can thank the breakup of the ancient supercontinent Rodinia.

How to see the moon, Venus and the bright star Regulus in an ultraclose conjunction tomorrow
Watch the crescent moon, Venus and the bright star Regulus align in a rare predawn close conjunction tomorrow.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Diyarbakır, Turkey
Chef Yusuf Altınkaya carves the city’s historical sites into watermelons
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Sydney, Australia
A surfer rides a wave as the sun rises over Bondi Beach
Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Istanbul, Turkey
A woman takes part in a photoshoot on a balcony above the Bosphorus
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 19^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46315.27	+172.85
		+0.37%
S&P 500	6664.36	+32.40
		+0.49%
NASDAQ	22631.48	+160.76
		+0.72%
TSX	29768.36	+314.83
		+1.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45045.81	-257.62
		-0.57%
HANG SENG	26545.10	+0.25
		—
SENSEX	82626.23	-387.73
		-0.47%
FTSE 100*	9216.67	-11.44
		-0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.200	3.185
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.651	3.624
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1274	4.1044
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7438	4.7242

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7254	0.7248
US $	1.3785	1.3796

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6191	0.6176
US $	1.1746	0.8513

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3643.70	3681.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.57	63.57

Market Commentary:
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 1.1%, or 314.83 to 29,768.36 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Aug. 6.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 138 of 210 shares rose, while 71 fell.
Barrick Mining Corp. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 9.7%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 15 times. The next day, it advanced eight times for an average 0.7% and declined seven times for an average 1.4%
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* So far this week, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 33.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 18.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.71t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.67% compared with 6.20% in the previous session and the average of 9.20% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 175.3679| 3.9| 39/8
Financials | 82.5691| 0.9| 20/4
Information Technology | 31.3281| 1.0| 6/4
Industrials | 16.3754| 0.5| 20/9
Consumer Staples | 15.1402| 1.5| 8/1
Consumer Discretionary | 6.8125| 0.7| 4/5
Utilities | 4.6584| 0.5| 8/6
Communication Services | 1.9929| 0.3| 3/2
Real Estate | 1.6970| 0.3| 17/2
Health Care | -0.1148| -0.2| 2/1
Energy | -20.9824| -0.4| 11/29
Barrick Mining | 48.4900| 9.7| 152.2| 104.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 32.1200| 4.3| 229.1| 97.5
Franco-Nevada | 21.1400| 5.6| 380.5| 74.6
Imperial Oil | -3.4010| -2.4| 182.7| 42.9
Cenovus | -5.8930| -2.7| 118.6| 7.4
Suncor | -14.0900| -2.8| 30.3| 11.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange surged to another record close Friday, its 16th in the last 21 sessions, with the Bank of Canada now seen likely to cut its key benchmark interest rate again in October to, as National Bank says, “give the faltering economy some breathing room”, even as Rosenberg Research is still wary about any “potential red flag”.
Even with commodity prices mixed, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index jumped 314.83 points, or 1.05%, to 29,768.36. When the index recorded its first record close of September it was at 28,615.62.
Most sectors were higher, with Base Metals the biggest gainer, up 1%.
Energy was the biggest loser, down 2.2%.
Reflecting this in commodities, gold had moved higher late afternoon on Friday, following two losing sessions from record highs, even as the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $40.10 to US$3,718.40 per ounce, staying under Tuesday’s record high of US$3,725.10.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed lower, falling for a third day on rising supply while slowing growth cuts into demand.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.89 to settle at US$62.68 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.78 to US$66.66.
According to National Bank in its latest Monthly Economic Monitor an economic slowdown has convinced the Bank of Canada that inflation risks are now much lower than a few months ago, especially since the government has significantly reduced retaliatory tariffs.
National Bank noted the BoC, therefore, resumed lowering interest rates in September, and may do so again in October to “give the faltering economy some breathing room”.
Subsequently, National Bank added, the BoC will have to adapt its actions to developments in the trade situation, but also to the federal budget in November, which could also stimulate the Canadian economy.
Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research Technical Analysis Consultant Walter Murphy noted the TSX is on pace to make it five weeks straight of posting both a higher weekly high and a higher weekly low.
Perhaps more importantly, Murphy also noted, there has only been one week (the week ending August 1) since the April low that the index suffered a lower weekly low.
“So,” he said, “if the index records a lower weekly low in the weeks immediately ahead, that could be a potential red flag.”
With that performance in mind, Murphy noted the TSX’s weekly momentum indicator, Coppock Curve, actually peaked in late July and has been flat lining ever since.
As a result, he said, the indicator is on pace to be in a confirmed downtrend in the first part of October.
“The resulting bearish bias would likely continue through the fourth quarter.
This implies that a coming weekly lower low in the TSX could develop while the Coppock indicator is in the early stages of a multi-month downtrend,” Murphy added.
Meanwhile, Murphy noted, the TSX is challenging Fibonacci resistance at 29,378-30,198.
A “meaningful” breakout through this range (i.e., above 30,832) would bring 33,800 into view, he said.
With those pending momentum pressures in mind, Murphy said a Fibonacci 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the post-April uptrend would not be a surprise. Based on the gains to date, such a retracement allows for a challenge of 26,673-24,976.
Murphy noted the TSX/S&P 500 relative strength line is challenging its post-2023 downtrend line.
He also noted the associated weekly Coppock Curve is on the oversold side of the neutral zero line but appears to have the time and potential to rally decisively into the positive side of neutral.
In turn, Murphy said, this could help the TSX’s relative strength line break out through trendline resistance as well as chart resistance at 4.66 (compared to the current 4.44).
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street closed out the highly anticipated Federal Reserve week with stocks notching fresh all- time highs as prospects for more rate cuts bolstered the outlook for corporate earnings.
While calls for a temporary breather have emerged after an almost $15 trillion rally in the S&P 500 from its April lows, bullish sentiment has prevailed.
That was after Fed officials resumed easing policy at a time when the economy is still growing, sending a constructive signal for risk taking.
“A Fed easing cycle in a non-recessionary environment has historically helped support stocks, and we see further gains underpinned by AI, earnings, and consumption,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 topped 6,660 Friday, with tech leading the charge.
A gauge of smaller firms dropped from a record.
Trading volume spiked into the close amid a $5 trillion triple-witching options expiry.
About 27.7 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges — the third-busiest day since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 2008.
Treasuries continued in consolidation mode, and were slightly cheaper across the curve.
That was after Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week signaled officials will take the next rate decisions “meeting by meeting.”
Nonetheless, swaps still show bets on nearly two more rate cuts in 2025. The dollar rose.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran told CNBC his decision to dissent from fellow policymakers’ rate move this week was driven by his view that tariffs have had no material impact on inflation.
Separately, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he supported the decision to lower rates and penciled in two additional cuts this year. 
“The Fed’s rate cut has set a bullish tempo for equity markets,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler, who expects brief consolidation.
“These recent new high milestones will likely serve as a ‘pit-stop’ for this bull market before resuming higher.”
Mark Hackett at Nationwide notes that while September has historically delivered pullbacks, this year’s market has defied that pattern.
“Still, with the S&P 500 trading at 22 times forward earnings and volatility suppressed, a period of consolidation or choppiness would be a normal and healthy development.”
At JPMorgan Asset Management, David Lebovitz says the big question is whether investors should be nervous with equity indices at or near all-time highs, spreads near all-time lows, and valuations rich across the board.
“Elevated equity valuations reflect still-solid fundamentals,” he said, “leaving us comfortable with our modest overweight to equities, while the current level of spreads keeps us neutral on high yield given limited room for price appreciation.”
US stocks are trading at record levels with earnings season right around the corner, and improving expectations for Corporate America’s profit growth indicate that the rally can keep going.
Among the companies in the S&P 500 that provided guidance for their third-quarter results, more than 22% were expecting to beat analysts’ expectations — the highest reading in a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
In addition, the share of firms issuing worse-than-expected profit forecasts was the lowest in four quarters as well.
Speaking of earnings, the Securities and Exchange Commission will move forward with plans to overhaul investor disclosure rules for publicly-traded companies, agency Chairman Paul Atkins said Friday.
The announcement comes the same week that President Donald Trump issued a social media post suggesting the SEC should move to semi-annual, rather than quarterly reporting.
Meantime, Bank of America Corp. strategists said the run in US big tech stocks over the past two years has further to go and investors should position for more gains.
A BofA team led by Michael Hartnett studied 10 equity bubbles since the start of the previous century, finding that these periods of extreme overvaluation produced average trough- to-peak gains of 244%.
That suggests that, after rising 223% from their March 2023 low, the Magnificent Seven cohort has “more to go.”
Both global and US equity funds saw their biggest week of inflows since December, BofA strategists said in a note that cites EPFR Global data.
Investors allocated about $68.4 billion to global equity funds for the week ended Sept. 17, while $57.7 billion went into US stock funds.
Nevertheless, this was the seventh-straight week in which bears outnumbered bulls in the American Association of Individual Investors survey.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s iPhone 17 Pro, Pro Max and iPhone Air went on sale Friday. The new phones, which bring a fresh look in addition to battery life and camera improvements, attracted long lines at Apple stores from Hong Kong to London to New York to Los Angeles.
** Multiple shoppers interviewed by Bloomberg News indicated they were upgrading belatedly from Apple’s four-year-old iPhone 13 series.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is moving to break into the wholesale power-trading business to better manage the massive electricity needs of its data centers.
* Google will meet the European Union’s deadline to propose changes to its advertising technology business after a near-€3 billion ($3.5 billion) fine — but won’t include the full breakup the EU and industry rivals have previously pushed for.
* The US and China are closer to final agreement on a sale of TikTok’s US operations to American investors, President Donald Trump said after a call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that focused in part on a deal to spare the popular app from a ban.
* Neuralink Corp., Elon Musk’s brain implant company, plans to launch a clinical trial in the US in October aiming to use its device to translate thoughts into text, potentially opening up new possibilities for speech-impaired people to communicate.
* Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. are poised to win aircraft orders from Turkey as soon as next week for as many as 250 commercial planes and additional F-16 fighter jets, with possible resolution over a long-running F-35 dispute.
** Boeing said it would not consider new contract terms approved by a majority of striking St. Louis-area factory workers on Friday.
* FedEx Corp. reinstated its profit and sales forecast, saying revenue will grow by 4% to 6% in the current fiscal year, topping Wall Street estimates.
* United Parcel Service Inc. was downgraded to market perform at BMO Capital Markets, which sees “persisting macro challenges” for the package-shipping company.
* Lennar Corp.’s forecast for quarterly home orders missed analysts’ estimates as affordability concerns and the wavering job market keep a lid on buyer demand.
* Intel Corp. was cut to sell at Citigroup Inc., which pointed to the beleaguered chipmaker’s rich valuation. Shares rallied 23% on Thursday after Nvidia Corp. agreed to invest $5 billion in the company.
* A panel of new vaccine advisers picked by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voted Friday to end the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s universal recommendation that people of all ages get Covid shots, moving the decision from individuals to one made in coordination with medical professionals instead.
* Porsche AG and its parent Volkswagen AG cut their outlook for the year, citing the sports-car maker taking a €1.8 billion ($2.2 billion) hit to operating profit linked to pushing back the introduction of new electric vehicles.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“USstocks and bonds are split on the economic outlook, with equities looking too complacent about the probabilities of a recession.”

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1748
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3472
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $115,180.47
* Ether fell 3.6% to $4,442.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.12%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.72%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.74%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $62.68 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.1% to $3,684.36 an ounce

–With assistance from Isabelle Lee and Lu Wang.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Every runner understands this. Front runners always work the hardest, and risk the most.” — Philip Hampson Knight “Phil”

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
September 18, 1759: Battle of Quebec ends, French surrender to British who capture Quebec City
September 18, 1793: President George Washington laid the cornerstone of the U.S. Capitol. Go to article
September 18, 1812: Great Fire of Moscow burns out after five days, destroys 75% of the city and kills 12,000 people
September 18, 1837: Charles Lewis Tiffany and John B. Young co-found a “stationery and fancy goods emporium” in New York City, renamed in 1853 as “Tiffany & Co.”
September,18, 1851: First edition of The New York Times is published for 2 cents a copy
International Equal Pay Day, September 18, 2025, Read more.
Anthropologist claims hand positions on 1,300-year-old Maya altar have a deeper meaning
A well-known Maya stone carving known as Altar Q, located at the site of Copán in Honduras, may use hand signs to represent key dates in the Maya Long Count Calendar, a new study claims.
‘The sun is slowly waking up’: NASA warns that there may be more extreme space weather for decades to come
A new NASA study suggests that solar activity will remain high or rise further in the coming decades, contradicting previous assumptions that the sun was quieting down — and scientists “don’t completely understand” why.
Scientists invent new sunscreen made from pollen
Traditional chemical sunscreens can damage coral reefs. Scientists say there’s a fix using one derived from tea plant pollen.
‘Rare’ ancestor reveals how huge flightless birds made it to faraway lands
The mystery of how related flightless birds ended up so far apart on different continents may have been solved.
‘There’s no shoving that genie back in the bottle’: Readers believe it’s too late to stop the progression of AI
Over 1,700 readers responded to a Live Science poll, and 30% of them believe it is too late to halt the development of artificial intelligence (AI).
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Munich, Germany
A marching band performs during the press tour of the Oktoberfest grounds
Photograph: Felix Hörhager/AP

Paris, France
A portrait by Pablo Picasso of his muse Dora Maar not seen for 80 years is unveiled at the Hotel Drouot auction house
Photograph: Stéphane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Birmingham, England
Dancers take part in a dress rehearsal of Black Sabbath – The Ballet
Photograph: Katja Ogrin/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 18^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46142.42	+124.10
		+0.27%
S&P 500	6631.96	+31.61
		+0.48%
NASDAQ	22470.72	+209.39
		+0.94%
TSX	29453.53	+131.87
		+0.45%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45303.43	+513.05
		+1.15%
HANG SENG	26544.85	+363.54
		+1.35%
SENSEX	83013.96	+320.25
		+0.39%
FTSE 100*	9228.11	+19.74
		+0.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.185	3.188
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.624	3.610
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1044	4.0872
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7242	4.6901

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7248	0.7261
US $	1.3796	1.3772

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6262	0.6149
US $	1.1788	0.8483

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3681.00	3695.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.57	64.05

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1873, Jay Cooke & Co. of Philadelphia, one of the nation’s largest investment banks, collapsed as a result of failed speculations in railroad stocks—triggering the Panic of 1873. Mr. Cooke—and the entire financial world—were taken completely by surprise. Just the night before, he had lavishly entertained President Ulysses S. Grant at the Cooke family mansion in Chelton Hills, Pa.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 131.87 to 29,453.53 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.0%.
Capital Power Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.2%.
Today, 122 of 210 shares rose, while 84 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.6%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.69t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.20% compared with 6.57% in the previous session and the average of 9.34% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 66.9066| 2.2| 9/1
Financials | 50.9517| 0.5| 20/4
Materials | 13.8404| 0.3| 25/20
Energy | 9.6346| 0.2| 22/17
Utilities | 4.7662| 0.5| 7/7
Consumer Staples | 0.9003| 0.1| 6/4
Health Care | 0.3398| 0.5| 3/0
Real Estate | -1.7302| -0.3| 4/14
Industrials | -1.9124| -0.1| 21/8
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9110| -0.3| 5/4
Communication Services | -8.9102| -1.4| 0/5
Shopify | 52.6000| 3.0| 5.7| 37.1
Brookfield Corp | 20.8800| 2.2| -23.0| 18.1
Barrick Mining | 10.7100| 2.2| 29.7| 86.3
Ivanhoe Mines | -4.4150| -6.5| 124.9| -25.5
Canadian National | -5.1090| -1.0| -39.7| -11.6
Thomson Reuters | -10.5900| -4.8| 158.4| -4.0
(MT Newswires)
(Corrects headline and first paragraph to show the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed a record high.)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday closed at a fresh record high, topping Monday’s prior record following a day-prior cut to interest rates, as Rosenberg Research, while writing about U.S. stocks, may have inadvertently summed up what is happening with Canadian equities too in a note entitled ‘Why Has This Turned Into A “Bad News Is Good News” Market?’.
Despite lower commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 131.87 points, or 0.45% ,to 29,453.53, with investors buoyed by the prospect of further rate cuts this year.
Most sectors were higher, led by Information Technology, up near 1.7%.
Both Telecoms and the Battery Metals Index were down more than 1.3%.
Of commodities, gold futures traded lower for a second day late afternoon Thursday as traders again took profits following Tuesday’s record high even as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this year and indicated more cuts are coming.
Gold for December delivery was down US$39.00 to US$3,678.80 per ounce, continuing a retreat from Tuesday’s record high of US$3,725.10.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a second day as rising production offset supply risks as Ukraine continues to attack Russian oil infrastructure, disrupting the country’s exports.
WTI oil for October delivery closed down $0.48 to settle at $63.57 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.52 to $67.43.
Rosenberg Research Economist Mehmet Beceren noted the S&P 500 has seen its character shift in recent years as “its cyclical exposure has been declining while sensitivity to interest rates has been on the ascent”.
Once we accept this shift, we can better understand why the index has managed to shrug off weak economic news so easily, Beceren said.
Among key takeaways, Beceren noted equity duration is rising with mega-cap Tech now nearly half of the S&P 500, equity market duration has stretched into the 25-30-year range, which is 30% more than its historical average.
This is making stocks far more sensitive to interest rate moves, he said.
Becerent also noted profits are decoupling from the economic cycle: Mega-cap Tech profits are resilient, and their shares are being treated as safe assets, reducing the link between equity returns and the economic cycle.
He said: “U.S. equities are now more vulnerable to rates, yet they are less tied to the domestic economy, and that duality will matter even more as the next rate-cutting cycle unfolds.”
Sticking with the bad news and good news idea, Fitch Ratings in its latest ‘Global Economic Outlook’ released today raised its world growth forecasts for 2025 “moderately” since the June Global Economic Outlook (GEO) on better-than-expected incoming data for Q2 2025.
Still, it also said there is now evidence of an underlying U.S. slowdown in ‘hard’ economic data, adding positive surprises on eurozone growth have partly reflected US tariff front-running.
So, Fitch still expects world GDP to slow significantly this year.
Fitch’s global growth forecast is now 2.4% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points since June but a “sizeable slowdown” from 2.9% last year and below trend.
China’s forecast has been raised to 4.7% from 4.2%, the eurozone’s to 1.1% from 0.8% and the U.S. to 1.6% from 1.5%.
World growth for 2026 is 0.1pp higher at 2.3%.
Fitch noted there has been a reduction in uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy after a flurry of announcements.
Its latest estimate of the average U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR) is 16%, very close to the rate assumed in June.
Fitch noted Mexico at 5% and Canada at 6%, as at August 12, 2025, face lower ETRs, due to better USMCA compliance and Europe’s ETR is also slightly lower, but this is offset by higher-than-expected rates for Asia excluding China.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s bets that Federal Reserve rate cuts will keep powering Corporate America drove stocks to all- time highs, with traders piling into the riskier corners of the market.
A day after the Fed deployed its first reduction this year and signaled the potential for more saw a rally that lifted the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 to records.
It’s the first time since November 2021 that all four major benchmarks closed together at fresh highs.
And it’s a rare feat too, occurring on just 25 other days this century.
Easier policy is a big source of support for stock bulls at a time when sky-high valuations are confronting bearish seasonality.
Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has posted an average decline of 0.7% in September, according to LPL Financial.
The gauge is up over 2.5% this month.
“The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates during a time when stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing,” said Robert Schein at Blanke Schein Wealth Management.
“This dynamic is bullish for stocks.”
About 320 shares in the S&P 500 rose, with tech leading the way.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1%.
A $5 billion investment from Nvidia Corp. in Intel Corp. drove the ailing chipmaker up 23%.
The Russell 2000 added 2.5%.
In late hours, FedEx Corp.
reinstated its full-year profit outlook.
Bonds erased gains after data showed jobless claims dropped by the most in nearly four years, suggesting companies are still holding onto workers.
The lack of any Fed hawkish surprises and the restarting of the rate-cutting cycle could be enough to offset any seasonal headwinds and keep risk appetite on the table, said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
“Big tech stocks tend to outperform during lower interest- rate environments, and financials may see a boost from additional M&A and mortgage activity that may come about from lower rates,” Schein said.
As important as the tech stocks are for the market, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak says he’ll be watching the small caps testing their record high even more closely than the tech sector over the rest of September.
“If they can break above that level in a significant way over the next week or two, it should be very bullish,” Maley said.
“If, however, they fail at this level (or slightly above it), it’s going to be quite bearish.”
Worries have been mounting for weeks that the S&P 500’s push to record after record risks becoming a bubble, with the index’s swollen valuation cited most often as cause for concern.
Critics point to the tech sector’s outsize influence on this year’s gain, with just five stocks, all megacap tech firms, driving about half of the advance.
But a closer look shows tech giants have largely justified their elevated valuations with profit growth.
“Investors have happily bought every dip, largely thanks to AI-driven enthusiasm and consistently strong results from big tech,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The concern is that if tech momentum cools, the rest of the market may struggle to justify current valuations.”
That leaves the rally vulnerable if investor confidence wavers, putting the S&P 500 forecast on a more cautious stance, he noted.
“Investors should continue to emphasize diversification and careful stock selection,” said Daniel Skelly at Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“We believe lower interest rates, robust earnings growth, and AI tailwinds will support further potential gains for global equities over the next year,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Investors under-allocated to equities and looking to manage timing risks should consider phasing in and using market dips to add exposure to preferred areas, she said.
Her firm estimates that the Fed will cuts rates by a further 75 basis points between now and the first quarter of next year.
At Ameriprise, Anthony Saglimbene says prospects for two more rate cuts in 2025 is a positive for equity markets and risk appetite in general heading into year-end.
But that is “if labor market conditions do not deteriorate much further, consumer spending remains stable, and Big Tech delivers on third-quarter profit expectations.”
While the S&P 500 has fallen 1% on average during Septembers going back to 1971, it has gained 1.2% in the month when the US central bank was reducing borrowing costs and the economy was not contracting, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
“The proximity of the market to all-time highs suggests that this rate cut is likely non-recessionary in nature, aimed more at supporting continued economic growth rather than countering a downturn,” noted SentimenTrader analysts.
Non-recessionary cuts typically have a more constructive impact on equities, as they can extend bull markets and boost investor confidence, they said.
“Our base case remains that the US economy will remain resilient and that it is unlikely to spiral into a recession,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We therefore believe stocks are poised for further gains.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. agreed to invest $5 billion in Intel Corp. and said the two will co-develop chips for PCs and data centers, a surprise move to help prop up an ailing archrival.
* Walt Disney Co.’s ABC network is taking Jimmy Kimmel Live! Off the air indefinitely amid a backlash to remarks the late-night host made about the killing of Republican activist Charlie Kirk.
* Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.’s sales guidance missed expectations, showing the brand is still dealing with the fallout from its controversial and short-lived logo change.
* American Express Co. is boosting the annual fee for its Platinum consumer credit card to $895 — a $200 increase — and adding about $1,500 of potential perks to help customers get over the sticker shock.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s diabetes blockbuster Ozempic beat Eli Lilly & Co.’s older drug Trulicity in a real-world survey of certain US patients.
* The US Federal Trade Commission and seven states sued Live Nation Entertainment Inc. and its Ticketmaster subsidiary for failing to stem the use of automated ticketing bots and large- scale resale operations.
* Darden Restaurants Inc. rolled out smaller-portioned, lower- priced entrées at select Olive Garden locations during the quarter, part of its strategy to make menus more affordable and boost sales, Chief Executive Officer Rick Cardenas said on an earnings call.
* GE Healthcare Technologies Inc. is exploring options including the sale of a stake in its China unit, people familiar with the matter said.
* Uber Technologies Inc. will trial food deliveries by drone with Flytrex Inc., marking the rideshare giant’s return to experiments with logistics.
* Deutsche Bank AG warned that a broad rollback of financial regulations in the US will give the German lender’s overseas competitor an edge.
* Hyundai Motor Co. raised its revenue forecast for 2025 while paring profit expectations as the South Korean automaker accelerates investment in the US to mitigate tariff costs.
* Huawei Technologies Co. unveiled new technology from memory chips to AI accelerators Thursday, outlining publicly for the first time its multiyear plan to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in a growing market.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Friday’s call heavy triple-witching September options expiry unpins the SPX from its current range around 6,600.
This increases the likelihood of higher intraday volatility.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1784
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3548
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 147.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $117,487.8
* Ether rose 1.9% to $4,590.57
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.11%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.73%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.68%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $63.68 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,646.69 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
“The best way to keep one’s word is not to give it.” — Gen Napoleon Bonaparte

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

September 17, 1789: William Herschel discovers Saturn’s moon Mimas using his 40-foot reflector telescope
September 17, 1911: First airplane flight across the US from New York to Pasadena, California, in 82 hours and 4 minutes
September 17, 1937: First NFL game in Washington, D.C.; Redskins defeat NY Giants 13-3
September 17, 1956: Television is first broadcast in Australia
September 17, 2003: New York Stock Exchange chairman Dick Grasso resigned amid a furor over his $139.5 million pay package. Go to article

Skyscraper-size asteroid previously predicted to hit us in 60 years will zoom past Earth on Thursday — and you can see it live
The “potentially hazardous” asteroid 2025 FA22 will fly close past Earth at more than 24,000 mph on Thursday (Sept. 18). The space rock was previously predicted to have a slim chance of impacting our planet in 2089, temporarily earning it the top spot on a major risk list.

‘A genuine surprise’: Near-Earth asteroid Ryugu once had ‘flowing water’ that transformed its insides
A new analysis of asteroid Ryugu hints that the “potentially hazardous” space rock once had flowing water in its core, possibly leftover from the impact that created it.

1,900-year-old ‘treasure’ found in Roman-era family’s scorched house in Romania
A discovery in Romania shows the remains of an elite family’s treasures from the Roman era that were scorched in a fire.

‘This needs to happen fast’: Scientists race to cryopreserve a critically endangered tree before it goes extinct
Less than 400 angle-stemmed myrtle specimens remain in the wild in Australia. Scientists are working on ways to preserve the species so that we can bring it back at any point if it dies out.

Grumpy-looking Pallas’s cat photographed by camera trap in stunning photo from eastern Himalayas
The Pallas’s cat is just one of several wildcats spotted in Arunachal Pradesh, which also supports snow leopards, common leopards, clouded leopards, leopard cats and marbled cats.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY


Peshawar, Pakistan
A herder cools off his cattle in a river during a hot day
Photograph: Bilawal Arbab/EPA

Galaxies, runner-up: Cosmic Coincidences by Deep Sky Collective
The Deer Lick region, home to NGC 7331 and the famous Stephan’s Quintet, makes for a stunning display of galactic interaction. Over six months, 12 photographers and a dedicated processing team worked to integrate nearly 600 hours of exposure to reveal these faint details at the Dark Sky New Mexico observatory in the US

​​​​​​​Cromer, Norfolk
‘A couple enjoying the pier and sheltering from the sun on a particularly warm day.’
Photograph: Catherine Walton
Market Closes for September 17^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46018.32	+260.42
		+0.57%
S&P 500	6600.35	-6.41
		-0.10%
NASDAQ	22261.33	-72.63
		-0.33%
TSX	29321.66	+6.43
		+0.02%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44790.38	-111.89
		-0.25%
HANG SENG	26908.39	+469.88
		+1.78%
SENSEX	82693.71	+313.02
		+0.38%
FTSE 100*	9208.37	+12.71
		+0.14%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.188	3.150
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.610	3.587
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0872	4.0279
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6901	4.6486

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7261	0.7278
US $	1.3772	1.3740

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6283	0.6141
US $	1.1823	0.8458

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3695.40	3657.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.05	64.52

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1998, stocks took a worldwide pounding after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that there were no plans for coordinated global interest-rate cuts. Despite the Russian debt crisis, Greenspan said he saw no immediate need to relieve the “peripheral gusts” of “financial turmoil.” The Dow slumped 2.7% to 7874. Analysts were pessimistic, but in three weeks U.S. stocks bottomed then went straight up.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 29,321.66 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Barrick Mining Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.3%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 4.8%.
Today, 84 of 210 shares rose, while 119 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.2%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 31.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.69t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.57% compared with 7.32% in the previous session and the average of 9.48% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 13.1324| 0.1| 16/7
Energy | 11.6564| 0.2| 16/23
Consumer Discretionary | 4.6549| 0.5| 4/5
Communication Services | 3.5288| 0.6| 4/1
Health Care | 0.2434| 0.4| 2/0
Utilities | 0.0595| 0.0| 6/6
Materials | -0.5600| 0.0| 14/33
Real Estate | -2.0940| -0.4| 3/15
Consumer Staples | -3.0038| -0.3| 4/6
Information Technology | -9.8664| -0.3| 5/5
Industrials | -11.3186| -0.3| 10/18
Barrick Mining | 11.0700| 2.3| 41.5| 82.3
TD Bank | 10.8500| 0.8| -47.4| 41.1
Shopify | 10.4900| 0.6| 37.6| 33.1
Manulife Financial | -6.8320| -1.3| -6.6| -3.3
Celestica | -7.3590| -2.6| 5.2| 156.9
Constellation Software | -10.1500| -1.7| -31.6| -3.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange recovered more than 120 points over the last hour of trading Wednesday and closed modestly higher, buoyed by the prospect of at least one other interest rate cut coming from the Bank of Canada before the end of 2025
Wednesday’s gains on the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index came despite lower commodity prices, mixed sectors and even as RBC said the Bank of Canada Governing Council members were “cautious cutters” today in reducing the overnight target by 25 basis points to 2.5%, a first cut since March.
At the final bell, the Composite Index was up just 6.43 points to 29,321.66, but it had been down near the 29,200 level near 3pm Eastern time and looked set to post back-to-back losses for the first time since August 19 and 20.
Since then, the TSX has posted a succession of record closes, the most recent at 29,431.02 on Monday.
Of commodities, gold had moved down from a record high later afternoon Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s own interest rate cut, the first from it this year.
Gold for December delivery was down $30.70 to US$3,644.40 per ounce, falling off Tuesday’s record high.
Also, West Texas Intermediate closed lower following three days of gains, sticking within the tight range it has mostly remained within for more than a month, even as a report showed a much larger than expected drop in U.S. oil inventories and the Fed cut. WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.47 to settle at US$64.05 per barrel, while November Brent crude was last seen down $0.56 to US$67.91.
On Canadian interest rates, National Bank noted that last month, just 7 basis points of easing was priced for the September decision, but the near-term rate outlook changed quickly after a weak Labour Force Survey and GDP report.
National Bank said with yesterday’s CPI report ushering in some encouraging inflation developments, the decision to ease today was an obvious one.
The rate statement reflects this shift as policymakers cite a weaker economy and a shifting balance of risks in justifying the decision to ease.
Moreover, Bank Governor Tiff Macklem said the cut was supported by a “clear consensus”, National Bank added.
National Bank noted conventional wisdom says that if you’re going to cut once, you’re probably going to go again, asking: does a single 25 bp move the needle in significant fashion?.
It noted the empirical record supports this view as the only time the BoC has held, then cut, then held was the mini 2015 easing cycle when the policy rate was at or below 1%.
National Bank said the BoC is trying to temper easing expectations as they removed the line from the July release that said, “there may be a need for a [rate] reduction”.
Still, National Bank added,it expects a follow-on cut in October.
National Bank said: “And while our base case outlook entails a 2.25% terminal rate (i.e., just one more cut), risks have clearly swung towards more easing being delivered.
Finger in the air, we’d assign a 40% probability to the terminal rate settling at 2% (or lower).
Incoming economic/inflation data, an October Business Outlook Survey, Canada-US trade developments and a fall budget will all help guide that view.”
As far as the BoC’s other policy levers are concerned, National Bank was not surprised to see the deposit rate left unchanged relative to the overnight target despite CORRA setting well above target all month.
It recalled that earlier CORRA pressures persisted for months before a deposit rate cut was deemed necessary.
This month, National noted, the BoC has not really tried to address higher repo rates with their usual tool (overnight repo operations) so there didn’t seem to be enough concern to warrant an adjustment.
Meanwhile, it also noted, the BoC did not announce it would be restarting treasury bill purchases, though National still anticipates that decision will come relatively soon in line with guidance from Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle.
Just before the close of trade, BMO Capital Markets published a note saying it also suspects rates won’t stay here, with the BoC likely to cut further in the months ahead.
BMO’s official call is two more cuts to 2.0%.
According to BMO, it’s not clear that the neutral range is stable.
BMO suspects that the BoC could clip that range next year by 25 basis points, in part due to milder potential GDP on much slower population growth.
But elsewhere, RBC published a note entitled ‘BoC – Cautious Cutters’ noting there was no direct forward guidance, but that the BoC “owned” the cut, emphasizing there was a clear consensus for the move and that it was consistent with “a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation”.
Importantly, RBC said, the BoC’s current assessment of underlying inflation, at 2.5%, was unchanged from July so they said they will “proceed cautiously” and remain data dependent.
The door is open to an October cut, RBC added, noting they probably need to see stronger growth/labor markets to not move again in this cycle, while the timing of the Federal Budget, after the October BoC meeting, provides additional scope. “However, they are cautious cutters and any easing should be viewed through the lens of adjustment style moves.”

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street emerged largely unshaken from a high-stakes Federal Reserve meeting, as policymakers delivered a well-telegraphed rate cut that elicited muted moves across markets.
The announcement was followed by Jerome Powell’s remarks, underscoring the tension between the Fed’s two mandates that suggested “there’s no risk-free path” ahead.
After briefly rising, the S&P 500 fell by a mere 0.1%, weighed down by tech.
Bonds saw small losses.
It was the seventh straight time the dollar rose on a Fed Day, the longest such winning streak since 2001.
The reaction reflected a central bank striking a temperate posture — acknowledging cooling in the labor market and signaling it will remain data-dependent amid price risks.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to cut the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%.
Looking ahead, Powell said the Fed was now in a “meeting-by-meeting situation.”
Policymakers now see two additional quarter-point cuts this year.
That’s one more than projected in June.
They foresee one quarter-point cut in 2026 and one in 2027.
They also slightly upgraded their median outlook for growth in 2026.
They also forecast modestly higher inflation next year.
Wall Street’s Reaction:
* Art Hogan at B. Riley Wealth: As this is very much within consensus, we may see some short term “buy the rumor/sell the news” reaction in markets.
* Bret Kenwell at eToro: In-line, in-line, in-line. The Fed delivered exactly what the market was expecting. Will we see a classic “sell the news” reaction to the Fed announcement, particularly in the seasonally weak month of September? While markets could use a breather, bulls will likely line up to “buy the dip” provided that the economy avoids a recession and earnings expectations continue higher.
* Ryan Detrick at Carson Group: The door is open to more cuts later this year, but it is clear they are now more worried about the slowing labor market than inflation. All in all, today’s news didn’t rock the boat and there were no curve balls.
* Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group the Fed’s 25 basis point cut is a clear signal: the softening labor market and stubborn inflation have pushed policymakers to act — but gradually.  This isn’t a pivot; it’s a measured step. For investors, this means modest rate relief, not fireworks.  Rate-sensitive sectors like housing and consumer discretionary may benefit, but caution remains key. The Fed is walking a fine line, and upcoming inflation and jobs data will determine what comes next.
* Peter Tchir at Academy Securities: Everyone is just trying to digest things. A lot of algos are whipping things around. It does seem that a lot of dovishness was already priced in.
* Christian Chan at AssetMark: The dovish tone of the statement gave way to a more balanced message in the press conference during which Powell highlighted the risk that tariff-related inflation could be more than a one-time event. Overall, today’s Fed action could be viewed as “goldilocks” move for the markets – growth expectations higher, the Fed is very aware of the risks to both the labor market and inflation, more rate cuts to come.
* Ronald Temple at Lazard: Investors should beware of taking the “dot plot” to the bank, as this is clearly an FOMC where the policy path is still unclear and where rising inflation could lead to a very different outlook in the months ahead.
* Steve Wyett at BOK Financial: Overall this move by the Fed was widely expected. So, it is not surprising the market reaction in stocks and bonds is a bit muted.  Powell’s tone and words in his press conference do indicate this was more a defensive move to avoid more weakness in the labor market and not one designed to spur a lot more growth. We think growth will be fine anyway.
* Dan Siluk at Janus Henderson Investors: The dot plot now implies two more cuts this year, but Powell downplayed its significance, framing the outlook as “more balanced” rather than decisively tilted toward labor market risks.  Markets may welcome the easing bias, but the messaging remains nuanced and far from a full pivot.
* Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management: Monetary policy actions were in line with our expectations with additional stimulus on the horizon. We are watching long rates closely as we anticipate the yield curve will steepen which bodes well for value-oriented sectors and smaller companies as the market broadens out.
* Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors: For now, boosting labor conditions is taking center stage. The path back to 2% inflation continues to lengthen, and the Fed’s dovish announcement today sends a clear message that they’re willing to live with moderately elevated inflation in the near term.
* Luis Alvarado at Wells Fargo Investment Institute: The restart of the rate cycle had been priced in the bond market expectations well in advance. The threat of having both inflation and unemployment rising simultaneously continues to create a big headache for the Fed’s interest rate policy.  Under this level of uncertainty, we believe fixed-income investors may benefit from being exposed to the intermediate portion of the curve (3–7-year maturities), striking the best balance between attractive yield and less sensitivity to potential interest rate risk.
* Jeff Roach at LPL Financial:  Investors are taking this decision in stride. As the risks to labor markets rise, we should expect further cuts in October and December.
* Simon Dangoor at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: The skew of the dot plot indicates that the Fed is likely to deliver 25bp cuts in October and December on top of today’s reduction. It would take a significant upside surprise in inflation or labor market rebound to take the Fed off its current easing trajectory.

Corporate Highlights:
* China’s internet watchdog has instructed companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. to terminate orders for Nvidia Corp.’s RTX Pro 6000D, the Financial Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
** This is a “counterproductive development,” US House Speaker Mike Johnson told CNBC.
* Apple Inc.’s smartphone sales in China in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 17 launch fell 6% from the year-earlier period, a deeper slump than is typical ahead of a new flagship product release.
* Reddit Inc. is in early talks to strike its next content- sharing agreement with Alphabet Inc.’s Google, aiming to extract more value from future deals now that its data plays a prominent role in search results and generative AI training.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby says a lack of new aircraft is impeding his plans to modernize the fleet and cash in on booming premium travel.
* Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. offered sales guidance for the current fiscal year that missed expectations, suggesting the brand is still dealing with the fallout from its controversial logo change.
* General Mills Inc. posted a solid quarter but kept its outlook in place as the maker of Cheerios cereal called out consumers being cautious from economic uncertainty.
* Patients on Eli Lilly & Co.’s experimental diabetes pill lost more weight and had better blood sugar control than those on an older, approved rival from Novo Nordisk A/S in the first head- to-head trial of the two medicines.
* Gemini Space Station Inc. shares extended declines Wednesday to fall below its initial offering price within days of debuting as a public company in the US, tracking some cryptocurrency- related stocks lower.
* WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC shares rose 14% in their trading debut after the water infrastructure company raised $634 million in an initial public offering that priced at the top end the marketed range.
* Lyft Inc. is partnering with Waymo for the first time to offer robotaxi service in Nashville starting next year, a deal that helps it better compete with rival Uber Technologies Inc.
* General Motors Co. is in preliminary talks to renew its longtime joint venture with China’s SAIC Motor Corp., signaling the US automaker’s budding optimism about its business in the world’s largest auto market after years of decline.
* StubHub Holdings Inc. priced its initial public offering at the midpoint of a marketed range to raise $800 million, capping co-founder Eric Baker’s years-long pursuit of a listing for the ticket-selling platform.
* Artificial intelligence chip startup Groq Inc. raised $750 million at a post-funding valuation of $6.9 billion, highlighting investor interest in companies seeking to alleviate a shortage of chips and computing power for AI workloads.
* Rithm Capital Corp. agreed to buy Paramount Group Inc., an office landlord in New York and San Francisco, for about $1.6 billion.
* Manchester United, the Premier League’s fallen giant, is struggling to keep tabs with its larger rivals after revenues flat-lined and losses continued to mount.
* British drugmaker GSK Plc pledged to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five years, making the announcement as President Donald Trump arrived in the UK for a highly anticipated state visit.
* AstraZeneca Plc’s Fasenra failed to meet its goal in a late- stage trial of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for a second time, a blow to the drugmaker’s efforts to expand the market for the asthma treatment.
* Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. walked away from a proposed $19 billion offer for Australian natural gas producer Santos Ltd., saying a “combination of factors” discouraged it from making a final bid.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1826
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3638
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 146.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1% to $115,693.15
* Ether rose 0.5% to $4,523.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.68%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $63.94 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,661.40 an ounce

–With assistance from Sid Verma, Denitsa Tsekova, Vildana
Hajric and Lu Wang.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” The art of statesmanship is to foresee the inevitable and to expedite its occurrence.” — Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Mayflower Day.
September 16, 1620: Pilgrims deported from England.
1810: Mexican Independence Day.
September 16, 1959: Xerox unveils the 914 photocopier in a live TV demo, delivering the first successful instant copying machine for offices worldwide.
2008: The federal government announced an emergency $85 billion loan to rescue AIG, the world’s largest insurance company.

Laurne Bacall, actress, b. 1924.
B.B. King, musician, b. 1925.

Tourists fined and banned from Venice for swimming in canal
In Venice, you can’t swim pasta the rules. A quick dip in a historic Italian canal landed these tourists in hot water.

Bad Bunny is doing one more show in Puerto Rico, for all of us
The popular musician added a final bonus show in Puerto Rico, which will be streamed live on September 20.

How the NFL’s kickoff rule made the sport safer
With the new NFL season now in full flow, fans are still getting used to some of the changes in the sport.

Paradise Bay: The new destination for an A-list getaway
At this luxury destination, exclusive villas can cost around $50,000 a night.

Drumroll please: One woman inspires a new generation of musicians
Melissa Walker has dedicated her life to ensuring that kids have access to arts education. Watch this inspiring video to see how she’s using jazz to unlock young potential in New Jersey.

Diet change could make brain cancer easier to treat, early study hints

A new lab study exploited a unique aspect of metabolism in glioblastoma to boost the effectiveness of chemoradiation, turning the cancer’s properties against itself. Read More.

Scientists measure the ‘natal kick’ that sent a baby black hole careening through space for the first time

Two black holes merged together 2.4 billion light years away from Earth, and scientists have just figured out how fast the newborn ricocheted, and in which direction. Read More.

New EV battery tech could power 500-mile road trips on a 12-minute charge

An EV battery breakthrough from Korea could help give lithium-metal tech the green light. Read More.

RIP Robert Redford.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ningbo, China
Fishing boats head out to the East China Sea after a four-and-a-half-month fishing moratorium ended in Zhejiang province, eastern China
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
The Museum of Tomorrow, a futuristic building with the appearance of a ship, is hosting the Nova Bienal Rio, which merges art and technology and features about 70 works from 30 countries
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Agoura Hills, US
An aerial view of the Wallis Annenberg wildlife crossing over the 101 freeway outside of Los Angeles in California. Officials hope it will eventually provide safe passage for threatened species such as mountain lions and connect protected areas in the Santa Monica mountains and the Sierra Madre range
Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 16^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45757.90	-125.55
		-0.27%
S&P 500	6606.76	-8.52
		-0.13%
NASDAQ	22333.96	-14.79
		-0.07%
TSX	29315.23	-115.79
		-0.39%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44902.27	+134.15
		+0.30%
HANG SENG	26438.51	-8.05
		-0.03%
SENSEX	82380.69	+594.95
		+0.73%
FTSE 100*	9195.66	-81.37
		-0.88%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.150	3.167
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.587	3.599
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0279	4.0375
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6486	4.6602

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7278	0.7223
US $	1.3740	1.3844

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6297	0.6136
US $	1.1862	0.8430

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3657.65	3651.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.52	63.30

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1935, a new securities shop opened for business at 2 Wall St. bearing the names of co-founders Henry Morgan and Harold Stanley. Made up of former J.P. Morgan bankers, Morgan Stanley was a result of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that split commercial and investment banking.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 29,315.23 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 1 sector lost; 129 of 210 shares fell, while 80 rose.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 7.2%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 10.2%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.2%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on Sept. 15, 2025 and 31.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.7t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.32% compared with 8.86% in the previous session and the average of 9.62% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -89.1749| -1.9| 7/40
Consumer Discretionary | -9.3387| -1.0| 1/8
Industrials | -9.2870| -0.3| 19/10
Financials | -8.3542| -0.1| 7/17
Utilities | -8.0152| -0.8| 2/12
Consumer Staples | -6.6746| -0.7| 2/8
Communication Services | -4.2903| -0.7| 1/4
Health Care | -1.8072| -2.6| 0/3
Real Estate | -1.5576| -0.3| 5/13
Information Technology | -1.1586| 0.0| 5/5
Energy | 23.8768| 0.5| 31/9
Cameco | -25.9900| -7.2| 67.9| 49.3
Manulife Financial | -14.9800| -2.8| 14.2| -2.0
Wheaton Precious Metals | -11.4300| -2.4| 109.2| 78.9
Suncor | 8.7630| 1.8| 4.8| 15.3
Bank of Montreal | 13.0200| 1.5| 13.3| 28.0
Canadian Natural Resources | 16.5600| 2.6| 26.8| 2.0
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high Tuesday as market watchers await a Bank of Canada interest-rate decision tomorrow, with RBC saying it will be a “closer call than the market expects”, and as Teck Resources closed lower after a federal minister hinted a proposed deal with Anglo American may not get the green light.
With profit taking balancing any positivity around higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 115.79 points or 0.4% to 29,315.23, with most sectors lower.
Health Care was down 2.8% and Base Metals down near 1%.
In contrast, Energy was up 2.5% and the Battery Metals Index up 2%.
On commodities, gold continued its record run up midafternoon on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve’s policy committee begins a two-day meeting that is expected to end with the central bank’s first cut to interest rates this year.
Gold for December delivery was up $6.60 to US$3,725.60 per ounce, rising off Monday’s record close.
Also, West Texas Intermediate oil closed at a two-week high on weakening supply from Russia as Ukrainian attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure cut into physical supply while China continues buying to build its strategic reserves.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $1.22 to settle at $64.52 per barrel, the highest since Sept.2.
November Brent crude was last seen up $1.20 to $68.64.
In individual stock news, Industry Minister Melanie Joly said the Canadian government would want to see longer-term commitments to this country if Teck Resources (TECK-A.TO, TECK-B.TO) is allowed to merge with U.K.-based miner Anglo American, The Canadian Press reported.
“There have been conversations with the companies, and clearly we wanted to make sure that there would be a net benefit to Canada.
But I think right now that it’s not enough,” Joly said as she headed into a cabinet meeting Tuesday.
The report noted while Joly said the short-term matters, she added, “we need to think about longer term and how can we make sure that ultimately we create jobs, but we have a strong headquarters, not only now but also for the next decade.”
It cited Joly saying further conversations are needed and she plans to speak to the chief executives of both companies next week.
Teck’s Class B shares closed down $2.48 to $55.31.
In terms of two outstanding Canadian economic questions, one was answered today with Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne saying the governing Liberals will present a delayed federal budget, the first under new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, on Nov. 4.
The other big question, related to whether or not the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council members feel the time is right to re-start with rate cuts, will be answered tomorrow.
According to RBC Capital Markets, the market is doing a “full court press” for a BoC cut tomorrow at near 23bp priced, but it said the decision is probably more finely balanced within the BoC’s Governing Council, and in the minds of those at RBC.
The “easy” answer, RBC added, is a negative Q2 GDP print, two months of rising unemployment rate and a neutral CPI print today are sufficient conditions to re-start an easing cycle.
But it noted the Governing Council was somewhat divided in the context of a hold decision in July, with the Summary of Deliberations showing some Council members seeing more to do, others seeing the cutting cycle as over.
RBC noted “under-appreciated reasons why staying on the sidelines now is prudent”.
It said under the surface the GDP and employment data was “significantly less alarming” than the headlines, noting final domestic demand rebounded to near 3.5% in Q2 and youth and self-employed job losses the last two months are “not particularly concerning”.
RBC Economics recently highlighted weakness in exports and employment year to date is mostly contained to high tariff-exposed sectors.
“It could be a high hurdle for the BoC to rely on recent trade-policy distorted data to make the leap into re-starting the easing cycle, RBC added.
“Importantly,” RBC said, “fiscal policy is better suited to manage isolated economic problems.
Signs from fiscal authorities suggest next month’s Federal budget will be on the expansionary side, with any “austerity” on program spending likely to be more than offset by increased spending elsewhere (e.g. infrastructure, defence).
The fiscal side can provide a needed boost to overall sentiment and target measures to trade-impacted sectors. Provincial fiscal updates have leaned to larger deficits than earlier budgets.
“Is there,” RBC added, “enough urgency to move before incorporating the new information from the Federal budget?”
RBC noted upside inflation risks have diminished, with many retaliatory tariffs removed, and underlying core trends at three months annualized are moving lower, but it also noted underlying inflation still seems stuck around the 2.5% level, which is right where the BoC assessed it at the last Summary of Deliberations.
“Cutting into an elevated/sticky inflation backdrop requires high confidence that the future growth outlook will be soft,” RBC said.
Other considerations, RBC noted, are the “domestic vibes aren’t particularly worrisome” as sentiment indicators have improved from the low points earlier in the year, and according to RBC Economics Q3 is showing early signs of recovery.
It also noted potential GDP is falling and is likely 0% to 1% in 2025, with population growth headed to zero.
“Not much residual growth in the economy, never mind a boost from fiscal stimulus, is necessary for the economy to grow above trend, RBC added.
Lastly, RBC said, key metrics have all come in line with the BoC’s July forecasts on Q2 GDP, headline and core inflation, when the central bank decided to hold rates.
“To warrant a cut and provide a bridge until fiscal helps out, the BoC will need to have confidence that there is “urgency” on the growth side (i.e. below trend growth will persist and broaden from trade related distortions), “it added.
Meanwhile, CIBC in an FICC Strategy note with pre-BoC trading thoughts said the central bank is “universally” expected to restart the easing cycle tomorrow, lowering the policy interest rate by 0.25 basis points to 2.50%.
But CIBC expects the BoC to remain within the ‘flooridor’ system, maintaining the deposit rate at 5.0bps below the policy rate and the Bank rate at 25.0bps above.
“The reason for the ease reflects increased evidence that a weaker economy is putting downward pressure on inflation, while the upward price pressures from trade disruptions look very contained,” it added.
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said today’s CPI data “solidifies” a 25-bps cut at tomorrow’s meeting.
Macquarie continues to see a total of 50 bps in cuts.
Its base case is for the second cut to occur in October.
It added risks to this view are for greater easing with a third 25 bps cut also possible in December or January.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for the Federal Reserve decision refrained from making big bets as they awaited clues on the path of rates that will shape the outlook for markets over the next few months.
A solid reading on retail sales did little to move trading, with a rally in equities fading near a record and bonds edging higher.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after a similar gain in July.
The control-group sales — which feed into the calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — climbed 0.7%, indicating a healthy quarter.
“The American consumer appears to be in good spirits,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“That’s good news for the economy, but it may heighten debate over how aggressively the Fed needs to cut rates.”
While Fed officials are still focused on bringing inflation to their target, they’re widely expected to cut rates in an effort to shield the labor market from further deterioration.
“Even if the job market is weak, it’s not hurting the consumer yet,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“While these numbers won’t prevent the Fed from cutting rates tomorrow, they reduce some of the longer-term dovish hopes.”
The S&P 500 lost 0.1%.
The Nasdaq 100 halted a nine-day advance.
Treasuries held gains after a solid sale of 20-year bonds.
The yield on two-year notes slid three basis points to 3.51%.
The dollar fell.
The euro hit its highest since 2021.
US PREVIEW: FOMC to Cut Rates Amid Open and Silent Dissents to Bret Kenwell eToro, given the recent labor-market data, retail sales were a big question coming into this week.
“In other words, would the recent job weakness impact consumer spending? The short answer appears to be no,” he said.
Kenwell noted that earnings estimates continue to move higher and consumer spending remains solid.
Provided these tailwinds remain in place, equities can continue to perform well, even if the market takes a breather, he said.
“Further, it’s important to note that historically, risk assets perform well when the Fed starts cutting rates in non- recessionary environments,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
While the retail-sales report was another piece of good economic news, much of the recent stock rally has been driven by expectations of six rate cuts over the next 12 months, according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“These six cuts can only come if the job-market deterioration is material and the equity performance that came with it is dependent over it,” he said.
Bonds Hint Growth, Not Inflation, Is Now Stocks’ Chief Concern with the Fed’s post-meeting statement set to be released at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, investors will look for changes in the latest quarterly rates projections, known as the dot plot, and pore over Jerome Powell’s remarks a half-hour later.
Recent speculation about the need for a 50-basis point rate cut is not justified by the current data, according to Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
Broader economic indicators — including earnings and credit spreads — do not reflect the kind of deterioration typically warranting that level of action, she said.
“We join the chorus of voices anticipating a 25 basis-point Fed cut tomorrow,” noted Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“That said: though we expect the market reaction to the Fed meeting to have a ‘sell the news’ flavor, we’d fade that pessimism in the near term.”
Money markets are fully pricing in a quarter-point Fed reduction Wednesday, and a series of interest-rate cuts over the next year.
An outlook echoing that view would be an encouraging sign for stock bulls, who have largely banked on a gradual easing path that keeps the economy from sliding into a recession.
While some investors are expecting a “sell the news” event, since Wednesday’s expected rate cut is widely priced in, Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management sees no obvious reason for a post-Fed selloff, given how earnings are still very strong and since the artificial intelligence theme is still intact.
“Even though stocks are at record highs, we are not seeing signs of euphoria,” he said.
“The IPO market has only recently started to unfreeze, and many investors are focused on the recent slowdown in hiring.
Stocks still have more room to climb the wall of worry.”
The equity options market is predicting a roughly 0.7% swing following the Fed meeting on Wednesday, tied for the second lowest expected move in the last 18 months, according to data from Susquehanna International Group.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed respondents are leaning “risk-on” (43%) reacting to the Fed meeting, 31% said “mixed/negligible” and 26% “risk-off.”
“We expect a 25 basis-point cut this week to be followed by three more cuts of the same size consecutively in the coming months, creating a favorable backdrop for the equity rally,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey showed a net 28% of global fund managers are overweight equities.
Opinions about growth showed the sharpest improvement in almost a year.
There are “bulls galore” as the risk of a “recessionary trade war” has ebbed, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
He added that equity exposure isn’t at extreme levels yet, which bodes well for the rally to continue for now.
A rally that has taken US stocks to fresh records could experience turbulence in coming weeks before finishing the year with a flourish, according to Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner.
Near-term risks include stretched valuations, the seasonal volatility that has tended to occur in September and October and possible selling from trend-following funds.
Any potential weakness is unlikely to last, however, as the tailwinds that have buoyed stocks — including corporate spending on artificial intelligence and demand from retail traders — give them a lift in the closing months of 2025, Rubner said.
Worries have been mounting that the S&P 500’s surge becoming a bubble.
While critics point to the tech sector’s outsize influence on this year’s gain, it’s the rest of the market that is starting to look a bit overpriced, according to Seaport Research Partners.
An index of S&P 500 companies that excludes the technology sector has risen a solid 13% over the last year, but has seen profits grow by just 6.4%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
The S&P 500 Information Technology index has surged 27%, a rate that looks more restrained when put up against the sector’s earnings growth of 26.9%.
The resilience of the economy, combined with rate cuts, are going to keep this bull market running, noted Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“It always sounds smarter to be bearish and see threats around every corner, but a market that refuses to go lower – especially during the worst months of the year – sends a strong signal that dips should be bought in 2025,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* TikTok’s American operations would be acquired by an investor consortium that includes Oracle Corp., Andreessen Horowitz and private equity firm Silver Lake Management LLC under a framework deal that US President Donald Trump is set to discuss with
Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.
* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said US negotiators expressed disappointment to their Chinese counterparts when they learned during trade talks of China’s ruling that Nvidia Corp. had violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google said it will invest £5 billion ($6.8 billion) over two years in the UK to help build an artificial intelligence economy in the country.
* President Trump filed a $15 billion defamation suit against The New York Times Co. and Penguin Random House LLC, accusing the paper of serving as a “mouthpiece” for the Democrats.
* Boeing Co.’s striking defense workers will vote Friday on a contract proposal drafted by union leaders that includes a 20% guaranteed wage increase and $10,000 signing bonus aimed at ending a six-week labor standoff.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Scott Kirby says improving travel demand going into the fall indicates the economy is stronger than statistics show.
* Binance Holdings Ltd., the world’s largest crypto exchange, is moving toward a potential deal with the US Justice Department that would allow it to drop a key oversight requirement in its $4.3 billion settlement of allegations that it didn’t do enough to prevent money laundering, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Ralph Lauren Corp. sees revenue growth remaining similar to recent rates over the next three years, according to the preppy fashion company’s latest strategic outlook.
* Walt Disney Co. is bringing all of its marquee comics to a new digital platform and app in partnership with Webtoon Entertainment Inc., sending shares of the upstart company soaring.
** Walt Disney, Comcast Corp.’s Universal Studios and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. are suing Chinese artificial intelligence startup MiniMax, accusing the company of pirating the studios’ intellectual property.
* Rithm Capital Corp. is nearing a purchase of office landlord Paramount Group Inc.
* Nestlé SA Chairman Paul Bulcke will step down early after investors questioned his handling of the ouster of the food company’s former chief executive officer due to an undisclosed romantic relationship with a subordinate.
* Dye & Durham’s shares plunged Tuesday after the legal software provider said it will miss the deadline for submitting its annual report, adding another hurdle for a company that has already faced pressure from an activist shareholder this year.
* Novo Nordisk A/S plans to seek US regulatory approval for a high-dose version of its blockbuster weight-loss shot Wegovy, another effort to counter Eli Lilly & Co. in the booming obesity market.
* Anglo American Plc and Teck Resources Ltd. haven’t done enough yet to show the advantages of their merger to the Canadian economy, said the country’s industry minister, who plans to meet with the companies’ chief executive officers next week.
* Thyssenkrupp AG has received a takeover offer for its steel division from India’s Jindal, opening a new chapter in the drawn-out search for a new owner of the struggling business.
* Tencent Holdings Ltd. raised 9 billion yuan ($1.27 billion) on Tuesday from its first bond sale in four years.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Ahead of a presumptive interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve, US stock valuations have reached levels comparable to those seen ahead of the dotcom bubble burst.
If the S&P 500’s current price of 22.6x forward earnings were to hold until Wednesday — when the Fed is expected to deliver a quarter-point reduction — it would mark the highest multiple coinciding with a rate cut, in Bloomberg data going back to 1990.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.1860
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3652
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 146.50 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $116,836.23
* Ether fell 0.5% to $4,491.29
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.03%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.51%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $64.58 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,689.78 an ounce

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If my mind can conceive it, if my heart can believe it , then I can achieve it. –Muhammad Ali, 1942-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com